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Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. WxLogic
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Nice... :)
1002. LargoFl
Quoting wxchaser97:

You got it right, 20%.
boy we have to watch this one closely, does it still look like Tampa bound?
Michael is also spinning out in the Atlantic with 50mph winds and a 1005mb pressure.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
So they think ex-Isaac will drift west towards Tampa? The people in south Louisiana do not need to see any form of Isaac again.

How much rain you end up getting from Isaac Aislin?
How does the GFS consistently get the best track even though it always has the worst pressure initialization? It's often off by 8 to 12 millibars!

The whole point of this steering map was that pressure was supposedly dictating steering.




So how does it get the right result when it's pressure initialization is off by one, sometimes two mean steering layers?!
1006. WxLogic
Quoting wxchaser97:

You got it right, 20%.


Typically when I tend to give a time for an update of some sort I tend to be a bit too conservative and it ends up happening earlier. :)
1007. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
622 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF OCEAN SPRINGS...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 619 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING FROM A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR GULF PARK ESTATES...OR NEAR OCEAN SPRINGS...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL MAINLY IMPACT OCEAN
SPRINGS AND GULF PARK ESTATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT NEAR 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
Quoting WxLogic:


Typically when I tend to give a time for an update of some sort I tend to be a bit too conservative and it ends up happening earlier. :)

Well today is a new day and you timed it perfectly.
Quoting RTSplayer:
How does the GFS consistently get the best track even though it always has the worst pressure initialization? It's often off by 8 to 12 millibars!

The whole point of this steering map was that pressure was supposedly dictating steering.




So how does it get the right result when it's pressure initialization is off by one, sometimes two mean steering layers?!

Because the GFS is King.
1011. LargoFl
Quoting TomballTXPride:
alot of storm warnings up there this morning too
Quoting LargoFl:
boy we have to watch this one closely, does it still look like Tampa bound?

90L does have to be watched for tropical development and Tampa could still get whatever 90L develops into.
1013. LargoFl
1014. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Still being sheared very heavily from the west.


..and she still has half her clothes missing ....




1015. LargoFl
Quoting wxchaser97:

90L does have to be watched for tropical development and Tampa could still get whatever 90L develops into.
ok ty
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Yes! I'm under a slight risk of severe weather today.
1017. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


so now its going to go ssw not toward fla hmm maybe texas now
1018. LargoFl
Quoting 7544:


so now its going to go ssw not toward fla hmm maybe texas now
they could use the rains im sure
Quoting aislinnpaps:
So they think ex-Isaac will drift west towards Tampa? The people in south Louisiana do not need to see any form of Isaac again.


West would be towards La/Tx wouldn't it? Tampa is East of this blob.
1020. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
ok ty

You're welcome, hopefully 90L doesn't come your way.
1022. VR46L
90L now 20% ... Formerly known as Isaac

In Rainbow
Quoting VR46L:
90L now 20% ... Formerly known as Isaac

In Rainbow

Its part of Isaac and some other energy, would get a new name.
We had terrible storms in Mobile last night, and now I see where they came from. GO AWAY 90L!
1025. mfcmom
We are already getting pounded again in Panama City and PCB. Five inches of rain, the roads in Bay and Walton Counties are flooded and this "Ghost of Isaac" is not looking like a good thing> Not again.
1026. LargoFl
Nam has it in the mid gulf for a few days......
Quoting VR46L:
90L now 20% ... Formerly known as Isaac

In Rainbow

THIS is the one to watch IMO
1028. LargoFl
Quoting mfcmom:
We are already getting pounded again in Panama City and PCB. Five inches of rain, the roads in Bay and Walton Counties are flooded and this "Ghost of Isaac" is not looking like a good thing> Not again.
yes its really dumping lots of rain for sure,maybe into the weekend gee
1029. 7544
Quoting VR46L:
90L now 20% ... Formerly known as Isaac

In Rainbow


ok isee now its going to be in the gulf longer now moving ssw then the trof comes by and scoops it e ene hmmm how strong could it get sitting in the bath waters before making the turn interesting
Only 5 days away from the climatological peak of the season folks.... Oh AND NFL football starts tonight!!!!!!!!!!1
1031. LargoFl
Quoting 7544:


ok isee now its going to be in the gulf longer now moving ssw then the trof comes by and scoops it e ene hmmm how strong could it get sitting in the bath waters before making the turn interesting
yes we really need to watch this one, i sure hope it does not follow debby's path
Quoting 7544:


so now its going to go ssw not toward fla hmm maybe texas now

It'll be pulled northeast towards Florida in a few days.
1033. LargoFl
rainfall model...........................looks like tampa at the end
1034. 7544
Quoting wxchaser97:

Its part of Isaac and some other energy, would get a new name.


looks like a new name but will always be issac to us lol after all its still hes remains next up nadine lol
Loggerhead sea turtle nest destroyed by storm surge on the SW FL coast. Close-up in water video clip:
Youtube Link
2012 Atlantic hurricane season naming list

ALBERTO (TS)
BERYL (TS)
CHRIS (C1)
DEBBY (TS)
ERNESTO (C1)
FLORENCE (TS)
GORDON (C2)
HELENE (TS)
ISAAC (C1)
JOYCE (TS)
KIRK (C2)

LESLIE (TS) - Active
MICHAEL (TS) - Active
NADINE
OSCAR
PATTY
RAFAEL
SANDY
TONY
VALERIE
WILLIAM
1037. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
boy we have to watch this one closely, does it still look like Tampa bound?


It would need unlikely RI to be of any worry. Debby was a much worse situation as it stalled as a TS for days. This blob will be ejected NE before long.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll be pulled northeast towards Florida in a few days.




Isaac is coming back
Quoting RTSplayer:
Andrew over-water calculations, and also made that perfectly clear.

You can even go back to the previous blog where this whole thing started.

Quit lying about me or anything I said or did.


Did you look at my post before you posted this? I quickly corrected this and REMOVED YOUR NAME FROM MY POST, it was another member who posted the old NHC advisory from 1992.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
2012 Atlantic hurricane season naming list

ALBERTO (TS)
BERYL (TS)
CHRIS (C1)
DEBBY (TS)
ERNESTO (C1)
FLORENCE (TS)
GORDON (C2)
HELENE (TS)
ISAAC (C1)
JOYCE (TS)
KIRK (C2)

LESLIE (TS) - Active
MICHAEL (TS) - Active
NADINE
OSCAR
PATTY
RAFAEL
SANDY
TONY
VALERIE
WILLIAM
If we get 6 this month that'll leave us with only two on the list.The models do show a active September.
1042. LargoFl
CMC....................
Invest 90L is going to be over Isaac's cool spot in the Gulf of Mexico as it emerges. Don't expect this to become anything more than a minimal tropical storm before making landfall in Florida.

And on that note, I'm off to prison..I mean school.

90l..steal.energy.from.leslie...
Quoting weatherh98:




Isaac is coming back
As Nadine if it gets name.
1046. LargoFl
ok got the model track......
1047. yqt1001
Quoting washingtonian115:
If we get 6 this month that'll leave us with only two on the list.The models do show a active September.


Could you imagine how crazy it would be if we (unlikely) got Alpha this year? 2010 and 2011 had a better shot, being that both were neutral/la nina. Yet this year is pulling some kind of crazy El Nino madness.
1048. LargoFl
Looks like we might be in store for another CV storm in a few days. 00z UKMET.

06z GFS.

00z CMC.


If you are unsure of the next names on the list are Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William.

Assuming that Leslie does become a major hurricane, Michael becomes a hurricane, 90L develops into Nadine, and we get Oscar all by 5 days, I will be impressed. That's a lot of assumption, but certainly possible.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 90L is going to be over Isaac's cool spot in the Gulf of Mexico as it emerges. Don't expect this to become anything more than a minimal tropical storm before making landfall in Florida.

And on that note, I'm off to prison..I mean school.


I don't think anything more than a weak TS from 90L as well. Good luck in prison, I mean school.
Leslie not looking bad. Organizing as shear appears to be finally dropping.

Quoting allancalderini:
As Nadine if it gets name.


Oh thank God
1054. LargoFl
ATCF has Leslie back to 60 knots again, while pressure is down to 990mb for the first time:

AL, 12, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 256N, 628W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 40, 1013, 250, 40, 0, 0,
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 90L is going to be over Isaac's cool spot in the Gulf of Mexico as it emerges. Don't expect this to become anything more than a minimal tropical storm before making landfall in Florida.

And on that note, I'm off to prison..I mean school.



I'm going there too.... Prison these days.
1057. yqt1001
This is Michael btw.





Generally these small storms pull some form of rapid intensification once the eyewall forms.
Here's my Daily Briefing video blog for Wednesday Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 12, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 256N, 628W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 40, 1013, 250, 40, 0, 0,


If anyone here is new to these.

AL = Atlantic.
12 = Leslie.
201290512 = current date.
BEST = best track.
256N, 628W = current location.
60 = current maximum sustained winds (in knots), would be 70mph.
990 = minimum pressure (down 4mb)
TS = tropical Storm.
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 12, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 256N, 628W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 40, 1013, 250, 40, 0, 0,

Not surpirsed as Leslie is finally looking better.

Quoting weatherh98:


I'm going there too.... Prison these days.

I know right, they do some crazy stuff these days.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like we might be in store for another CV storm in a few days. 00z UKMET.

06z GFS.

00z CMC.


If you are unsure of the next names on the list are Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William.

Assuming that Leslie does become a major hurricane, Michael becomes a hurricane, 90L develops into Nadine, and we get Oscar all by 5 days, I will be impressed. That's a lot of assumption, but certainly possible.

I think it is very possible for that to happen and we still got the other half of the season to go.

One more thing this is my 3000th comment!
1061. VR46L
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 90L is going to be over Isaac's cool spot in the Gulf of Mexico as it emerges. Don't expect this to become anything more than a minimal tropical storm before making landfall in Florida.

And on that note, I'm off to prison..I mean school.



Have a good day at school

THE WATER IN THE WEST OF THE GULF IS ROCKET FUEL !!!

But not in the North East of the Gulf !!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If anyone here is new to these.

AL = Atlantic.
12 = Leslie.
201290512 = current date.
BEST = best track.
256N, 628W = current location.
60 = current maximum sustained winds (in knots), would be 70mph.
990 = minimum pressure (down 4mb)
TS = tropical Storm.

Would be nice if some folks explained it better instead of assuming. Oh well.
I got to go to school/prison just as Leslie and Michael are getting better. Will be interesting to see what they look like when I get home, bye.
1064. VINNY04
Any one got a picture of the gulf temps right now?
Judge (mom) is sending me to prison(school) as well gotta role
1066. WxLogic
Quoting VINNY04:
Any one got a picture of the gulf temps right now?


See Post 1043 (above).
1067. VINNY04
Quoting WxLogic:


See Post 1043 (above).
Thanks. dont look like much potential out there.
1068. SLU
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF has Leslie back to 60 knots again, while pressure is down to 990mb for the first time:

AL, 12, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 256N, 628W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 40, 1013, 250, 40, 0, 0,


No surprise. Leslie's got a well defined eye now.
Leslie is starting to take advantage of the better conditions all ready.
1070. SLU
Quoting SLU:


No surprise. Leslie's got a well defined eye now.


Mike's not to far from being a hurricane either ....
1071. LargoFl
Quoting SLU:


No surprise. Leslie's got a well defined eye now.


They might even make it a hurricane if new data comes in supporting such.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.9mb/ 72.2kt

T3.5/3.5

A reasonable blend of the two would be 3.9, which is 74mph.
Quoting VR46L:


Have a good day at school

THE WATER IN THE WESTERN GULF IS ROCKET FUEL !!!

But not in the North East !!

Thank God!
1074. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER LOWER PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA...WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD GIVE WAY TO MORE FLASH
FLOODING MOSTLY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND MOST AREAS OF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MODERATE TO STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...MOSTLY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
90L's winds are up 5 knots, and pressure is down another millibar:

AL, 90, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 307N, 864W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 60, 0, 0,
1076. LargoFl
1077. WxLogic
Quoting VINNY04:
Thanks. dont look like much potential out there.


Not much (at least from what we can see).
1078. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They might even make it a hurricane if new data comes in supporting such.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.9mb/ 72.2kt

T3.5/3.5

A reasonable blend of the two would be 3.9, which is 74mph.


... and Michael is at 3.0.

05/1145 UTC 28.0N 43.5W T3.0/3.0 MICHAEL -- Atlantic

Safe to say that if all things remain equal, this could be the 3rd straight season with 19+ named storms.


Michael's getting bigger and spiky hedgehog looking, which is a good sign.
1080. LargoFl
Quoting Neapolitan:
90L's winds are up 5 knots, and pressure is down another millibar:

AL, 90, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 307N, 864W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 60, 0, 0,
my guess is TS by the weekend
1081. VINNY04
Quoting WxLogic:


Not much (at least from what we can see).
hopefully it will at least bring us some rain and break us from this drought here in florida.
1082. WxLogic
Quoting Neapolitan:
90L's winds are up 5 knots, and pressure is down another millibar:

AL, 90, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 307N, 864W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 60, 0, 0,


90L is trying.
1083. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
516 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

AMZ250-252-254-256-060930-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
516 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL CAUSE BREAKING
WAVES IN PLACES WHICH MAY NORMALLY NOT SEE BREAKING WAVES. INLETS
MAY EXPERIENCE STANDING WAVES AND TURBULENCE DURING OUTGOING TIDES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE (PERHAPS BECOMING
HURRICANE LESLIE) WILL CAUSE BREAKING WAVES IN PLACES WHICH MAY
NORMALLY NOT SEE BREAKING WAVES. INLETS MAY EXPERIENCE STANDING
WAVES AND TURBULENCE DURING OUTGOING TIDES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
...and Michael still listed at 45 knots, with no change in pressure from the previous update:

AL, 13, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 282N, 436W, 45, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 30, 20, 30, 1016, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, M,
1085. 7544
Quoting Neapolitan:
90L's winds are up 5 knots, and pressure is down another millibar:

AL, 90, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 307N, 864W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 60, 0, 0,


intresting and once its gets in the water im looking for a td soon ?
1086. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
1088. WxLogic
As of 12Z... Convergence/Divergence appear to be on the increase on 90L:



1089. LargoFl
1090. LargoFl
wow look at that..................
Scene type for Leslie has changed from irregular CDO to UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE (Microwave eye)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like we might be in store for another CV storm in a few days. 00z UKMET.

06z GFS.

00z CMC.


If you are unsure of the next names on the list are Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William.

Assuming that Leslie does become a major hurricane, Michael becomes a hurricane, 90L develops into Nadine, and we get Oscar all by 5 days, I will be impressed. That's a lot of assumption, but certainly possible.

Anything after Leslie that we need to worry about in terms of a possible threat down the road?
lakes.are.full..e.cen.florida
Quoting lobdelse81:

Anything after Leslie that we need to worry about in terms of a possible threat down the road?


90L as being discussed, and it is too early to tell where that Cape Verde wave may go.
1095. LargoFl
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER THIS MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL OCCUR MOSTLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM ANDALUSIA TO MOBILE IN ALABAMA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH
TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
1096. guygee
Big ULL over the Bahamas that was formerly forecast to roll over the FL peninsula 2-3 days ago now looks to be starting towards the N-NE. Ex-Isaac MLC to revisit N.O. before dropping into the GOM moving ESE?
Nadine .. Honey is that you ???
1098. LargoFl
...........big question is..will leslie pull future nadine to her or along her path?
looks like Nadine and possible Oscar for the weekend and start of next week.btw why is the Eastern pacific dead right now?
1100. guygee
Quoting islander101010:
lakes.are.full..e.cen.florida
I still feel like we have been parched this summer in Satellite Beach. Rain has been mostly from synoptic forcing or tropical-related...seabreeze rain machine broken-down...too many consecutive days with no rain and full sunshine. Subsoil is dry, topsoil is hydrophobic, plants are stunted.
1101. WxLogic
Quoting LargoFl:
...........big question is..will leslie pull future nadine to her or along her path?


That is one (of many questions)... won't be surprised if it misses the TROF and meanders in the E GOM.
1102. LargoFl
surfers will be out in those dangerous rip currents along the east coast for sure huh
Quoting allancalderini:
looks like Nadine and possible Oscar for the weekend and start of next week.btw why is the Eastern pacific dead right now?

Most tropical cyclones develop from waves that cross the Atlantic and enter the East Pacific. There's really no way for them to develop if they're developing in our basin.

Lol, I have no idea.
Quoting weatherh98:
Judge (mom) is sending me to prison(school) as well gotta role


Recommend learn whatever you can in school.

If you're not already taking "trig/advanced math" (whatever they call it in your school,) and at least pre-calculus, do so, and if they offer a full Calculus course take it as well.


Unless you're exceptional at arts or music, you should take as little of that as you're allowed to and focus on any and all math and science courses available in your school. Take as little P.E. or ROTC as possible too.


I screwed up all of my "electives" in high school, and was horribly prepared for college, even though my primary curriculum was supposedly "college prep". Took 4 ROTC and 2 ARt classes, and that should have been 2 P.e.(w/ health) and 1 fine arts, and spend the other 3 on more math and science.

I regret nearly everything I did in high school regarding curriculum, because it absolutely ruined my college experience, and whatever "fun" I might have had in High School at the time was most certainly not worth it in the long term.


Personally, I think we need another month or two added to the school year so that less "review" is done and more in-depth teaching.

Other nations' kids have roughly four EXTRA U.S. school year equivalents of education by the time they graduate High School, due to the cummulative benefits of extra months in the school year. This is one of the two big reasons they out-perform American students in Math and Science.

The other reason is that many of the high schools require a scholarship and accept only the best students from junior high, and so the lowest scoring students aren't counted at all...


Anyway, this is both personal advice and social commentary. Take it for what you will. I'll pm this to you as well, since it's unlikely you're around to read it now.

Oh yeah, spend a lot of time in the Library reading math and science books and journals there as well...
1105. LargoFl
Quoting WxLogic:


That is one (of many questions)... won't be surprised if it misses the TROF and meanders in the E GOM.
yeah the longer it sits in the gulf, the more time to build
Something about I storms - Ivan pulled a loop and went back through the Gulf in '04.
1107. guygee
Quoting LargoFl:
surfers will be out in those dangerous rip currents along the east coast for sure huh
Will get an increasing north longshore current with big rollers...surfer's dream around here.
Rob Masson @robmassonfox8
a strange new storm system in the gulf.

The Associated Press @AP
BREAKING: Area around US embassy in Brussels sealed off as bomb squad assesses suspicious vehicle.
1109. LargoFl
boy that sure looks impressive for only 20% huh
Possibly off-topic, but I've been lurking for awhile and I've seen this phrase tossed around, "fish storm"; what does it mean? Thanks!
Quoting Eng1n3rd:
Possibly off-topic, but I've been lurking for awhile and I've seen this phrase tossed around, "fish storm"; what does it mean? Thanks!


A "fish storm" is when a storm forms and doesn't hit any land masses as a TC.

A lot of people will rudely or incorrectly call something a "Fish Storm" even though it hits islands, which is not fair to the people living there.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Mornin' Geoffrey!. I was looking at the radar loops like this earlier this morning and came away fascinated that the storms are forming the instant the airmass pushed over water.. they aren't really popping over land.
I'm off to school. I mean, *Clears throat, Prison.

High school isn't much of a prison to me. xD


Anyway.
Leslie and Michael both have a almost completely finished eyewall, which means they just need to adjust their structures and pop that eye out.

Leslie shall be a Hurricane tonight.
Michael shall be a Hurricane tomorrow.
90L will become Nadine this weekend.
and Oscar will form out of the Tropical Wave in central-west Africa in 5 days.
Quoting Eng1n3rd:
Possibly off-topic, but I've been lurking for awhile and I've seen this phrase tossed around, "fish storm"; what does it mean? Thanks!

A storm that does not affect a land mass - only bothers the fish.
Quoting RTSplayer:


A "fish storm" is when a storm forms and doesn't hit any land masses as a TC.

A lot of people will rudely or incorrectly call something a "Fish Storm" even though it hits islands, which is not fair to the people living there.

Who does that?
Headed to Pizza for Pearlington, MS Ironically, also headed back in to what is left of Isaac.
1117. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most tropical cyclones develop from waves that cross the Atlantic and enter the East Pacific. There's really no way for them to develop if they're developing in our basin.

Lol, I have no idea.

The only activity the EPAC has been capable of getting is a couple of monsoonal lows that escaped the Atlantic. other than that. Nothin.

We currently lead the EPAC
13-10

Back in July it was:
4-7

Major shift, wasn't it?
Quoting Eng1n3rd:
Possibly off-topic, but I've been lurking for awhile and I've seen this phrase tossed around, "fish storm"; what does it mean? Thanks!
It's just a highly-overused (in this forum, anyway) slang term denoting a non-landfalling cyclone.
Quoting LargoFl:
boy that sure looks impressive for only 20% huh
We are leaving for Captiva Island this weekend on vacations I hope this system will not spoiled our vacations,but indeed it looks very impressive in the satellite presentation,I believe this system could surprise many people,in my opinion a strong tropical strong and depending how long it seat in the Gulf of Mexico will not be surprise to see a Cat#1.
Again we hope it will not spoiled our mini-vacation this weekend.
1122. guygee
Quoting LargoFl:
surfers will be out in those dangerous rip currents along the east coast for sure huh
Rip currents are not the danger, fear is the danger. The human body is buoyant in the ocean's salt water, if you remain calm and breathe steadily you will naturally float. This applies to bubble-free water, when there are bubbles you lose buoyancy. The common advice is so true, let the current take you out beyond the surf zone, then relax and swim parallel to the beach...or just float if you cannot swim, the return current will take you back to shore.

Fear and panic causes drowning, not rip currents.
I think it's still too raw for the people of the Gulf coast to have Isaac just reform and pop up on their doorstep again, people would probably lose it.
On the other-hand the NHC didn't seem to mind Ivan as it looped around, and reformed it in the Gulf.
1124. LargoFl
bad storms midwest also today, lots of warnings out.......
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
756 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 752 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM THAYER TO 5 MILES WEST OF PALMYRA TO WHITE
HALL...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR TREE DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
BROKEN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VIRDEN...CARLINVILLE...LITCHFIELD...GILLESPIE...HI LLSBORO...
STAUNTON...GREENFIELD...GIRARD...FARMERSVILLE...RA YMOND...BENLD...
WILSONVILLE...MOUNT OLIVE...TAYLOR SPRINGS...HETTICK...NILWOOD...
STANDARD CITY...CHESTERFIELD...WAGGONER AND ATWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
1125. Grothar
=doesnt.hit.conus
1127. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


now those look interesting over fl then loop around the bahmamas then what back to fl AGAIN LOL
1128. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
..look at that path..just about the same path as debby
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Looks like Isaac's little sister(Nadine) wants to finish the job in Florida, as Isaac was first forecasted to go for the RNC, but Isaac had other plans... ;)
1130. Grothar


90L a.k.a. the remnants of Isaac. Impressive how long a big storm like Isaac can retain it's identity. Seems like it has a fair chance of redevelopment (would still be Isaac if it did) but it only has a limited window so it's doubtful.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Mornin' Geoffrey!. I was looking at the radar loops like this earlier this morning and came away fascinated that the storms are forming the instant the airmass pushed over water.. they aren't really popping over land.


Good morning! True, and they are still forming at a quick pace.
1133. LargoFl
Quoting Hurricane1956:
We are leaving for Captiva Island this weekend on vacations I hope this system will not spoiled our vacations,but indeed it looks very impressive in the satellite presentation,I believe this system could surprise many people,in my opinion a strong tropical strong and depending how long it seat in the Gulf of Mexico will not be surprise to see a Cat#1.
Again we hope it will not spoiled our mini-vacation this weekend.
have a great time on your vacation!
1134. WxLogic
Quoting 7544:


now those look interesting over fl then loop around the bahmamas then what back to fl AGAIN LOL


LOL I was about to comment about that too... that would be real something if it were to happen... assuming it develops.
Noaa Buoy just off the Florida Panhandle pressure is dropping

Station 42012
NDBC
Location: 30.065N 87.555W
Date: Wed, 05 Sep 2012 11:50:00 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SW (230°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 78.8 F
Dew Point: 75.0 F

1136. LargoFl
Quoting Stoopid1:
90L a.k.a. the remnants of Isaac. Impressive how long a big storm like Isaac can retain it's identity. Seems like it has a fair chance of redevelopment (would still be Isaac if it did) but it only has a limited window so it's doubtful.

Those facts are completely off.

As the NHC stated yesterday, this is a "PIECE" of Isaac and would mean that it would receive a new name, Nadine, and has the possibility of becoming a Weak Tropical Cyclone as it stalls out over the next couple of days.
1138. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Geoff, don't you think somebody should have mentioned 90L in their blog a couple of days ago? Gee, what a surprise :)
90L is quite vigorous, especially since Isaac has been over land for some time. A good amount of moisture still associated with it.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Looks like Isaac's little sister(Nadine) wants to finish the job in Florida, as Isaac was first forecasted to go for the RNC, but Isaac had other plans... ;)


Looks like most of the rain will be in central and northern Florida. It all depends how far south 90L gets in the Gulf before it is swept off to the northeast.
Nadine is a Russian name meaning "Hope".


As in "Hope it doesn't come to Louisiana".
Quoting Grothar:


Geoff, don't you think somebody should have mentioned 90L in their blog a couple of days ago? Gee, what a surprise :)


Don't dislocate your shoulder again :)
1143. Grothar
While 90L is a relative of Isaac, it actually developed from the mid-level low associated with it, so yes, you are correct, it most likely would receive a new name, since it is a new system. I believe some models may develop it even more if it moves into the Bahamas.

1144. WxLogic
For now 90L appears to be relatively well stacked:

850MB:


700MB:


500MB:


Still has work to do on that MLC but overall is solid enough for a TD to develop in 24 to 48HR. May be less if conditions are just right.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Those facts are completely off.

As the NHC stated yesterday, this is a "PIECE" of Isaac and would mean that it would receive a new name, Nadine, and has the possibility of becoming a Weak Tropical Cyclone as it stalls out over the next couple of days.


Oh? I apologize then. Seems the weathermen here are off. It is Jacksonville mets talking about tropical weather after all.
1146. dmh1026
It will be interesting to see Leslie, and Michael dance together in the Atlantic. take a look at the forecast track for each...
1147. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Don't dislocate your shoulder again :)


Just a light tap will do. You want me to tell you what the other two are going to do? (that I also wrote about 3 days ago.) :P
Quoting Stoopid1:
90L a.k.a. the remnants of Isaac. Impressive how long a big storm like Isaac can retain it's identity. Seems like it has a fair chance of redevelopment (would still be Isaac if it did) but it only has a limited window so it's doubtful.


90L is a hole new thing so if it gets named. It will be the N storm It will not be called isaac
1149. LargoFl
1150. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:


ALMOST fully in the gom ?
1151. Msdrown
Quoting Stoopid1:
90L a.k.a. the remnants of Isaac. Impressive how long a big storm like Isaac can retain it's identity. Seems like it has a fair chance of redevelopment (would still be Isaac if it did) but it only has a limited window so it's doubtful.


This thunderstorm/Low isn't part of Isaac. That all went to the NE. This is something new but it is still just a simple Low with a mess of thunderstorms/lighting. It didn't even deliver that much wind. Enough to blow my drying out items off of the table below my house so I need to start that process over again. At least my lower room is clean and drying from Isaac. Plus it delivered enough rain to wash the mud off of the grass and roads.

Water temps down in the NGOM, nothing is going to happen with this storm other then rain and misery for the fishermen who just left port after Isaac.
Quoting Grothar:


Just a light tap will do. You want me to tell you what the other two are going to do? (that I also wrote about 3 days ago.) :P


Yes, please give us an update on the other two AOI's. Also, how long do you see 90L hanging out in the Gulf? When is the cold front forecast to come through?
90L is no threat to Texas. A front will be rolling through South East Texas this weekend pushing anything that might being the GOM North East. Another rainmaker for Florida. Hoping that it does not develop.
Ex-Isaac has some vorticity. Might influence Florida weather this weekend.
Quoting WxLogic:
For now 90L appears to be relatively well stacked:

850MB:


700MB:


500MB:


Still has work to do on that MLC but overall is solid enough for a TD to develop in 24 to 48HR. May be less if conditions are just right.


Not only that but I would say that is one impressive feeder band is it not? It's all nocturnally driven and over water. Soon as the center hits the water it could certainly develop agian.
1156. WxLogic
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Not only that but I would say this one impressive feeder band is it not? It's all nocturnally driven and over water. Soon as the center hits the water it could develop certainly develop agian.


Sure looks like it... waiting on more VIS SAT images to coming to get a better feel on where the center is or could be relocating to. Pretty sure the ATCF did a good job but need that visual confirmation.
1157. LargoFl
Quoting 7544:


ALMOST fully in the gom ?
..sure looks like it, by this evening it will all be in the gulf..in 85 degree waters
1158. LargoFl
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 62.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......140NE 200SE 60SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 62.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 62.9W
1159. LargoFl
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BEACHES...CREATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS EMANATING FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS OUR AREA. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION.
ouch most models put 90L south of SELA by Thursday.... NOT GOOD!!! we do not need ANY wind pushing water up right now - we just got rid of it!!
1162. LargoFl
wording will change come this weekend huh...............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF TAMPA BAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COOL FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE AND NOT SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Nadine means evil in Stephan Kingese


M.o.o.n. spells evil
Well, at the very least, seduced by it...
1165. 7544
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Not only that but I would say this one impressive feeder band is it not? It's all nocturnally driven and over water. Soon as the center hits the water it could develop certainly develop agian.


maybe about 20 miles away from the water at this hour so looks like it would hit the gulf real soon dont know how fast its moving but that what i see maybe 30% at 11 am imo
Quoting indianrivguy:
Nadine means evil in Stephan Kingese


M.o.o.n. spells evil



I think Stephen King must have had some traumatic experiences with women as a child.

What's the deal with all the psychopathic women and even a demon-possessed car with a female name?
1168. SLU
This is a hurricane ...

Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
ouch most models put 90L south of SELA by Thursday.... NOT GOOD!!! we do not need ANY wind pushing water up right now - we just got rid of it!!


I doubt anything more than a 45mph TS.
Quoting WxLogic:


Sure looks like it... waiting on more VIS SAT images to coming to get a better feel on where the center is or could be relocating to. Pretty sure the ATCF did a good job but need that visual confirmation.


I have terrible grammar this morning, as I have not yet had my cup of coffee. Former Issac seems to be sliding his circulation right down that band that formed yesterday, I could be wrong but it seems like the center is just east of Pensacola, FL. Tropics are in full gear.

Quoting SLU:
This is a hurricane ...



Boy shear sure seems to have let up quite a bit. I hope Bermuda is ready.
1172. VINNY04
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I have terrible grammar this morning, as I have not yet had my cup of coffee. Former Issac seems to be sliding his circulation right down that band that formed yesterday, I could be wrong but it seems like the center is just east of Pensacola, FL. Tropics are in full gear.

well Starbuks can get you one that will wake you up in no time. for just a couple of bucks.
Paleotempestology

Paleotempestology is the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological proxies as well as historical documentary records. The term was coined by Kerry Emanuel.

Anybody want to do this job? :P
Quoting 7544:


maybe about 20 miles away from the water at this hour so looks like it would hit the gulf real soon dont know how fast its moving but that what i see maybe 30% at 11 am imo


Yep, the orange crayon should come out today and maybe red by tomorrow morning. Doc did say shear was supposed to be steady over the Northeast Gulf so if anything does come to form from it, should be held in check by both that and the previously up welled waters from Issac. If he does drift more to the west and somehow gets southwest of New Orleans he could get into untapped waters.


Quoting RTSplayer:



I think Stephen King must have had some traumatic experiences with women as a child.

What's the deal with all the psychopathic women and even a demon-possessed car with a female name?
Cujo was a male. But women, as a whole make much more evil subject matter. (in a novel sort of way, of course).
1177. kwgirl
Quoting RTSplayer:



I think Stephen King must have had some traumatic experiences with women as a child.

What's the deal with all the psychopathic women and even a demon-possessed car with a female name?
Good morning all. What I think is more telling with Stephen King is the fact that in a lot of his books children are killed. Sure a lot of them are heroes as well, but come on. I always wonder what kind of sick mind can create such literature.
Quoting SLU:
This is a hurricane ...


And If not, she is definitely on the verge. She's come a long way in the past few days.
I read this am that some tar had washed up and that dna tests were being done to see if was from Deepwater horizon. On that note, the Feds filed suit this morning;

Deepwater Horizon: BP accused of gross negligence

The US Justice Department has accused BP of "gross negligence and wilful misconduct" over the Deepwater Horizon disaster, claims which BP denies.

snip

"The behaviour, words, and actions of these BP executives would not be tolerated in a middling size company manufacturing dry goods for sale in a suburban mall," the government said in its 39-page filing."

snip

"That such a simple, yet fundamental and safety-critical test could have been so stunningly, blindingly botched in so many ways, by so many people, demonstrates gross negligence," it said.

and the beat goes on...
...
Quoting SLU:
This is a hurricane ...



More than likely if this organization trend continues it will be upgraded to the 6th hurricane of the season later today, almost two days ahead of schedule.
1182. SLU
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Boy shear sure seems to have let up quit a bit. I hope Bermuda is ready.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

And If not, she is definitely on the verge. She's come a long way in the past few days.


Bermuda is so tiny and in the middle of nowhere, it's almost statistically impossible for a hurricane to give them a direct hit but it looks like Leslie is headed straight for them.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

And If not, she is definitely on the verge. She's come a long way in the past few days.


Unfortunately Leslie could very well become our first Major of the season.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.8mb/ 72.2kt

Leslie is likely a 65 knot Category 1 hurricane.
Quoting LargoFl:
..look at that path..just about the same path as debby
Yep, that's what I was thinking. Another Debby set up, a north of TB, lots of rain and maybe a tornado or two.
During Debby, I was in a local Walmart and a tornado warning sounded. The whole store's staff and customers, including me were moved to the center of the store. Given free cookies and water, for about an hour.
Crazy thing was, that where we were positioned was right under a huge skylight and in the wall mirror and
dinner/glassware section of the store. The cookies were good.
1186. hcubed
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Subs are capable of breaking through up to 25 feet of ice if necessary. Not only that, but there are natural fissures and cracks that form even in the heart of arctic night due to wind and ocean currents.

You won't find 1958 naval maps with the kind of ice extent we are seeing. Or any other historical surface naval maps either. In recorded naval history going back as far as the 1600's, the ice extent has never been anywhere near the current levels. Never. Period.

To further the point, the last time ice extent was this low according to climatological proxies was around 125,000 years ago. Sea levels were much higher, and the world was quite a different place, climatologically speaking. Modern man had just barely arrived on the scene.

Basic physics do not back up any hypothetical global cooling. Short of a massive volcanic event, the planet will continue to warm, regardless of a Maunder minimum (greenhouse climate forcings exceed that of any solar minimum). We are already seeing the effects from the reduced ice. The unprecedented polar "hurricane" that formed this year from all that open water in the arctic was just one example. The warming arctic is also having an effect on global weather patterns, which Dr. M has discussed in several of hist postings.

In summary, every piece of scientific data goes against your claim.


Even this paper, from a peer-reviewed source?

Science

the title:

A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability – View from the Beach

the authors:

Svend Funder, Hugues Goosse, Hans Jepsen, Eigil Kaas, Kurt H. Kjær, Niels J. Korsgaard, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Hans Linderson, Astrid Lyså, Per Möller, Jesper Olsen and Eske Willerslev

finally the abstract:

Abstract

"...We present a sea-ice record from northern Greenland covering the past 10,000 years. Multiyear sea ice reached a minimum between ~8500 and 6000 years ago, when the limit of year-round sea ice at the coast of Greenland was located ~1000 kilometers to the north of its present position. The subsequent increase in multiyear sea ice culminated during the past 2500 years and is linked to an increase in ice export from the western Arctic and higher variability of ice-drift routes. When the ice was at its minimum in northern Greenland, it greatly increased at Ellesmere Island to the west. The lack of uniformity in past sea-ice changes, which is probably related to large-scale atmospheric anomalies such as the Arctic Oscillation, is not well reproduced in models. This needs to be further explored, as it is likely to have an impact on predictions of future sea-ice distribution..."
1187. divdog
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I have terrible grammar this morning, as I have not yet had my cup of coffee. Former Issac seems to be sliding his circulation right down that band that formed yesterday, I could be wrong but it seems like the center is just east of Pensacola, FL. Tropics are in full gear.

According to weather channel a couple of minutes said the low was right around fort Walton beach dropping into the gulf soon
Is it safe to say now that New England will not get hit by Leslie?
1190. SLU
Assuming Leslie is officially upgraded at 11am it will be 13-6-0 on September 5th. Not bad for an "el nino" season.

.. added to that, most hurricane seasons produce more named storms post-August 31st. We probably won't get more than 5 - 8 storms this season but our numbers could close in on 19 storms again for 3 straight years by the end of the season.

1191. VINNY04
Quoting Clearwater1:
Yep, that's what I was thinking. Another Debby set up, a north of TB, lots of rain and maybe a tornado or two.
During Debby, I was in a local Walmart and a tornado warning sounded. The whole store's staff and customers, including me were moved to the center of the store. Given free cookies and water, for about an hour.
Crazy thing was, that where we were positioned was right under a huge skylight and in the wall mirror and
dinner/glassware section of the store. The cookies were good.
Right! forget Debbie and forget the tornado, cookies are more inportant :P
Seeing some sort of eye like feature on Michael as well.

Michael also exhibiting an eye like feature.
Quoting Clearwater1:
Yep, that's what I was thinking. Another Debby set up, a north of TB, lots of rain and maybe a tornado or two.
During Debby, I was in a local Walmart and a tornado warning sounded. The whole store's staff and customers, including me were moved to the center of the store. Given free cookies and water, for about an hour.
Crazy thing was, that where we were positioned was right under a huge skylight and in the wall mirror and
dinner/glassware section of the storm.
The cookies were good.


That made me laugh... sad, but true.
1195. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Seeing some sort of eye like feature on Michael as well.



wow ... a pinhole-type eye too ... could be a hurricane by tonight
Quoting indianrivguy:
Nadine means evil in Stephan Kingese


M.o.o.n. spells evil


I thought about posting a pic of her as Naine Cross.
Far and away my favorite SK novel.
Quoting divdog:
According to weather channel a couple of minutes said the low was right around fort Walton beach dropping into the gulf soon
Yes, long range radar out of Tallahassee shows the whole mess drifting south into the Gulf.
Looks like HH will finally be going in to Leslie to take a look-see:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 03 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-107

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 05/1800Z FIX
MISSION INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 63.3W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
Thinking Michael might be a little bit better organized than given credit too.
1200. icmoore
Link

College of DuPage
I really like this link.
1201. dabirds
Big boomers hitting S C IL right now, black outside, impressive radar presentation, rain and good gusts (50 mph). Stays like this as heads SE could be nasty later today. Wonder if this will move one of these systems eventually?
That man has a truly disturbed mind, worse than the weather lately.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I thought about posting a pic of her as Naine Cross.
Far and away my favorite SK novel.

And what about this...HPC 5 day outlook?
1204. guygee
Quoting hcubed:


Even this paper, from a peer-reviewed source?

Science

the title:

A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability %u2013 View from the Beach

the authors:

Svend Funder, Hugues Goosse, Hans Jepsen, Eigil Kaas, Kurt H. Kjr, Niels J. Korsgaard, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Hans Linderson, Astrid Lys, Per Mller, Jesper Olsen and Eske Willerslev

finally the abstract:

Abstract

"...We present a sea-ice record from northern Greenland covering the past 10,000 years. Multiyear sea ice reached a minimum between ~8500 and 6000 years ago, when the limit of year-round sea ice at the coast of Greenland was located ~1000 kilometers to the north of its present position. The subsequent increase in multiyear sea ice culminated during the past 2500 years and is linked to an increase in ice export from the western Arctic and higher variability of ice-drift routes. When the ice was at its minimum in northern Greenland, it greatly increased at Ellesmere Island to the west. The lack of uniformity in past sea-ice changes, which is probably related to large-scale atmospheric anomalies such as the Arctic Oscillation, is not well reproduced in models. This needs to be further explored, as it is likely to have an impact on predictions of future sea-ice distribution..."
Just because the climate models do not perfectly reproduce certain aspects of natural variability such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) does not mean that their results are invalid. Any model output is bracketed by error bars that covers these imperfections. Also, for all we know the AO is a temporary phenomenon that just happens to have some periodicity in recent times. Human beings love to make patterns and impose periodicity where there really is none.

If you have ever been even an undergraduate college student in the sciences or engineering, and your professor let you turn in data without error estimates then you had a lazy professor.

Also note that the paper you cite is a study of a local area, not covering the entire globe. So this paper has little to no relevance to the issue of global warming.

Any questions?
1205. VR46L
Quoting unknowncomic:
Ex-Isaac has some vorticity. Might influence Florida weather this weekend.


I think it may just be influencing the Panhandle of Florida right now....



Going on 2 months without rain here in South Central Texas with temps near 105 every day, Unusual for September since this is suppose to be 2nd wettest month of the year here? Saw a couple of grass fires this morning driving around from idiots throwing cigarettes out the window most likely. Front coming down is suppose to be dry for my area but drop us below 100 hopefully.
1207. 7544
90l seems to be GROWING in size might be quite large in another 6 hours and when it turns e it could cover most of fl pinisular imo the tricky part is going to be how long it hangs out there and how far south its going to get established before it heads to fl , time will tell but imo its going to cover alot land
Leslie looks like a cinnamon roll. That would go nice with my morning coffee, actually. As for Nadine???
It sure would be nice just FOR once a line of storms would actually roll through my area, but no instead it's this crap, every time. I am absolutely 100% convinced that there is some sort of mechanism in this area that discourages storm development.


Quoting hcubed [#1186]:


Even this paper, from a peer-reviewed source?
Yes, even that paper. In fact, especially that paper. Note this line from the abstract you reproduced:

"When the ice was at its minimum in northern Greenland, it greatly increased at Ellesmere Island to the west."

...and this one:

"The lack of uniformity in past sea-ice changes, which is probably related to large-scale atmospheric anomalies such as the Arctic Oscillation, is not well reproduced in models."

IOW, ice lost in previous events wasn't nearly as uniform then as it is today. The current situation--unprecedented for many tens of thousands of years--sees ice not just being moved like peas on a plate around by wind and currents as happened previously, but simply vanishing altogether as the Arctic waters rapidly warm.
Quite a few models look like they may want to bring 90L back around for another shot after it clears the state of FL
Quoting Clearwater1:
Yes, long range radar out of Tallahassee shows the whole mess drifting south into the Gulf.


And a mess it is. Some claim there is already a CoC and I say that's BS for now.
Quoting VR46L:


I think it may just be influencing the Panhandle of Florida right now....





Based on the flooded streets in South Walton County, I believe you are correct...
1214. dabirds
Quoting ILwthrfan:
It sure would be nice just FOR once a line of storms would actually roll through my area, but no instead it's this crap, every time. I am absolutely 100% convinced that there is some sort of mechanism in this area that discourages storm development.


Almost looks like it's getting a hook in Fayette Co., on 51 around Ramsey
1215. MahFL
Leslie now has an eye.

1216. GetReal
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Quite a few models look like they may want to bring 90L back around for another shot after it clears the state of FL




GFS is a reliable model.
Morning.....Isaac back for another bowl of Gumbo? Issac we just cleaned up and the kitchen is closed! ( as my Mom would say) Now go to Bed!
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Going on 2 months without rain here in South Central Texas with temps near 105 every day, Unusual for September since this is suppose to be 2nd wettest month of the year here? Saw a couple of grass fires this morning driving around from idiots throwing cigarettes out the window most likely. Front coming down is suppose to be dry for my area but drop us below 100 hopefully.


Yeah I'm ready for this summer to be over. We've already had four small outside fires in my district in the last few days alone. The high pressure over the area has locked in and since the ground moisture is so low we are going back into that "ground sucks the atmosphere dry" pattern again. We need a high pressure buster type storm to get us back into a wetter pattern but the 100 temps are keeping any t-storm activity at bay.
Quoting dabirds:
Almost looks like it's getting a hook in Fayette Co., on 51 around Ramsey


Yep, they have Tornado Warnings posted for them.

"Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
921 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

ILC051-135-051445-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-120905T1445Z/
MONTGOMERY IL-FAYETTE IL-
921 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND
EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 919 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAMSEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. THE PUBLIC REPORTED TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN NEAR WITT AS THE STORM PASSED.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAMSEY AND BAYLE CITY.

LAT...LON 3907 8898 3916 8939 3933 8935 3931 8914
3931 8913 3922 8913 3922 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 282DEG 16KT 3922 8918

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN"



I can also just about also guarantee these storms will nulify any chance for afternoon rains as they will be turning the atmosphere over and making it difficult for anything to form this afternoon. This should push the boundary down by the Ohio River and SPC will likely adjust at noon in their outlooks as well...


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT WED 05 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-109


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
FLIGHT ONE --NASA872--
A. 07/0130Z
B. NASA872 0112A LESLIE SURVEILLANCE AV-6
C. 06/1900Z
D. 26.9N 63.3W
E. 07/0130Z TO 07/1130Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
G. IP 30.1N 81.2W OUTFLOW LAYER AXIS CYCLONIC S TO N

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 06/1800Z D. 28.5N 87.8W
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
C. 06/1700Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 07/1200Z IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.
B. FIX OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 07/1800Z NEAR 26.6N 63.2W.
90l.multicenters.one.s.e.of.new.orleans.
At the moment, UW-CIMSS sees Leslie as a solid Category One hurricane:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 979.2mb/ 74.6kt
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE


SSD is a little more skeptical, seeing it as a high-end tropical storm, but its estimate is pushing five hours old:
05/1145 UTC 25.9N 62.4W T3.5/3.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic


Am I crazy to think they'll upgrade at 11am?

1225. Gearsts
Dry air inside the circulation.
Quoting CloudGatherer:
At the moment, UW-CIMSS sees Leslie as a solid Category One hurricane:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 979.2mb/ 74.6kt
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE


SSD is a little more skeptical, seeing it as a high-end tropical storm, but its estimate is pushing five hours old:
05/1145 UTC 25.9N 62.4W T3.5/3.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic


Am I crazy to think they'll upgrade at 11am?



no...I thought it too...but its 70 mph
No hurricane for now.
1228. 7544
Quoting BrickellBreeze:




GFS is a reliable model.


loop de loop has any storm taken this path before interesting
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012

THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING LESLIE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE TO DEVELOP
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 0944 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS DISPLACED ABOUT
12-18 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLOWLY
ALONG A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR
SO DUE TO A BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.
AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST...
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE LESLIE TOWARD THE NORTH BY 96
HOURS...AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND
REMAINS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE
CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

LESLIE IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR
THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HOURS. THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR IS
COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LESLIE COULD INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY THAN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN LEVEL OFF IN 72-96
HOURS DUE TO UPWELLING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SYMPTOMS OF NEGATIVE FEEDBACK CAUSED BY THE GFS MODEL 200 MB
WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS...ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS
GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THIS STRENGTHENING TREND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED IN THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 25.7N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 26.8N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 27.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 32.4N 64.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 10/1200Z 39.5N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
1230. SLU
NO WAY!

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 5
Location: 25.7N 62.8W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Has anyone else seen this?
Link
It would seem that Hurricane Isaac got in to the archeological salvage business for a minute.
1232. vlaming
Quoting BrickellBreeze:




GFS is a reliable model.


Even without its Isaac history, it would be pretty amazing for that storm to develop, there can't be many that came off the gulf coast and developed. And if the GFS is correct, it might hit Florida twice and end up in the Gulf again ...
1233. SLU
.... THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.
1234. LargoFl
going to be one interesting weekend here in florida huh
1235. Gearsts
Quoting SLU:
NO WAY!

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 5
Location: 25.7�N 62.8�W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Eating alot of dry air, look at the Outflow boundary.





A 0944 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS DISPLACED ABOUT
12-18 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.


In a pig's eye.

You don't blend 55 with 72, and arrive at 60 kts - particularly not when the two lower estimates are hours old, and the higher estimate has been rapidly climbing in the interim. The vortex column is tilted, but there's no particular reason to think that the winds aren't hurricane strength.

I understand that there's no particular hurry on the upgrade here, because it'll be days still before Leslie slams into Bermuda. But it's gonna be a massive, nasty storm. And as far as I'm concerned, it's already a 'cane.
I hate Calculus... anyway, just checking in during school's lunch. How's Leslie doing?
1238. Grothar
Blob Alert #4

1239. WxLogic
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT WED 05 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-109


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
FLIGHT ONE --NASA872--
A. 07/0130Z
B. NASA872 0112A LESLIE SURVEILLANCE AV-6
C. 06/1900Z
D. 26.9N 63.3W
E. 07/0130Z TO 07/1130Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
G. IP 30.1N 81.2W OUTFLOW LAYER AXIS CYCLONIC S TO N

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 06/1800Z D. 28.5N 87.8W
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
C. 06/1700Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 07/1200Z IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.
B. FIX OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 07/1800Z NEAR 26.6N 63.2W.


Very nice... here's the NASA Surveillance drone:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 25.7N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 26.8N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 27.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 32.4N 64.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 10/1200Z 39.5N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Bermuda needs to prepare for a Cat.3
Quoting vlaming:


Even without its Isaac history, it would be pretty amazing for that storm to develop, there can't be many that came off the gulf coast and developed. And if the GFS is correct, it might hit Florida twice and end up in the Gulf again ...


If this thing develops the way the models show, it'd be Nadine, right? I'm not that strong on my naming conventions, but since the discussions haven't been talking about 'Isaac redeveloping,' I presume it'd be considered a new storm. Someone else know more?
Quoting Grothar:
Blob Alert #4



Could use that blob in Tejas but won't happen. WTH has everything stayed East of Beaumont this year?
Uh-oh:

7.9


000
WECA41 PHEB 051447
TSUCAX

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1447 UTC WED SEP 05 2012

THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

... A CARIBBEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

BRAZIL / BARBADOS / TRINIDAD TOBAGO / FRENCH GUIANA /
SAINT LUCIA / MARTINIQUE / ST VINCENT / DOMINICA / BARBUDA /
GUADELOUPE / MONTSERRAT / ANTIGUA / SAINT KITTS / ANGUILLA /
GRENADA / SAINT MARTIN / SAINT MAARTEN / DOMINICAN REP /
TURKS N CAICOS / BONAIRE / CURACAO / BAHAMAS / VENEZUELA /
HAITI / BERMUDA / SURINAME / ARUBA / CUBA / GUYANA / COLOMBIA /
JAMAICA / GRAND CAYMAN / CAYMAN BRAC / PANAMA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS / COSTA RICA / BELIZE / NICARAGUA / GUATEMALA

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1442Z 05 SEP 2012
COORDINATES - 9.9 NORTH 85.5 WEST
LOCATION - OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA
MAGNITUDE - 7.9
1244. NYX
Quoting BrickellBreeze:




GFS is a reliable model.


After seeing the acrobatics Ivan did, I never rule even the most absurd forecast model out.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:




GFS is a reliable model.


Yes, but the interpretation vs verification of stalls and loops is not always what it appears to be.

But it is basically what any intuitive observation would imply: SW early and then NE to ENE late.
1246. 7544
plane for 90l posted ?
1247. Grothar
Early models on 90L

Quoting Neapolitan:
Uh-oh:

7.9
7.9 magnitude...geez.
MY COUNTRY COSTA RICA JUST GOT HIT BY A 7.9 QUAKE....OMG!!!!!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Looks like Isaac's little sister(Nadine) wants to finish the job in Florida, as Isaac was first forecasted to go for the RNC, but Isaac had other plans... ;)


Or maybe Isaac wanted to visit Tampa the first time around, but all the hotels were booked!
1251. hcubed
Quoting guygee:
Just because the climate models do not perfectly reproduce certain aspects of natural variability such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) does not mean that their results are invalid. Any model output is bracketed by error bars that covers these imperfections. Also, for all we know the AO is a temporary phenomenon that just happens to have some periodicity in recent times. Human beings love to make patterns and impose periodicity where there really is none.

If you have ever been even an undergraduate college student in the sciences or engineering, and your professor let you turn in data without error estimates then you had a lazy professor.

Also note that the paper you cite is a study of a local area, not covering the entire globe. So this paper has little to no relevance to the issue of global warming.

Any questions?


Yet studies of a specific local area like the Arctic Ocean (which doesn't cover the entire globe) is a perfect example of Global Warming?
Quoting Grothar:
Early models on 90L



Headed right for this year's hot spot..
The quake looks to be on the Pacific Coast - why would there be a tsunami watch in the Caribbean?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
MY COUNTRY COSTA RICA JUST GOT HIT BY A 7.9 QUAKE....OMG!!!!!
You are in USA right now, right? I hope the damage isn't massive in Costa Rica.
1255. Gearsts
7.9

8km NE of Samara, Costa Rica

2012-09-05 14:42:09

9.931°N

85.462°W

20.0
1256. Grothar
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I hate Calculus... anyway, just checking in during school's lunch. How's Leslie doing?


So far this is what we know. If you paid more attention in school, you could tell us what this means.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
You are in USA right now, right? I hope the damage isn't massive in Costa Rica.



yes, but my family lives right near where the strike is..
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie at 5Sept12pm
KXFL-PalmCoast :: BDA-Bermuda ::


The bottom kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 4th day as a TropicalStorm
The middle kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 5th day
The top kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 6th day
Note the difference in the distances traveled by Leslie on its 4th, 5th, and 6th days
4th day: 204miles(329kilometres) @ ~8.5mph(13.7kmh)
5th day : 88miles (141kilometres) @ ~3.7mph ( 5.9kmh)
6th day : 60miles (097kilometres) @ ~2.5mph ( 4.0kmh)
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
4Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 340miles(548kilometres)ESEast of Bermuda
4Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda
4Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 86miles(139kilometres)WSWest of Bermuda
5Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 238miles(383kilometres)SWest of Bermuda
5Sept.06am: TS.Leslie was heading for passage 88miles(141kilometres)WSWest of Bermuda
5Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie was heading for passage 108miles(174kilometres)East of Bermuda

Copy&paste kxfl-29.404n81.094w, 32.387n62.5w, 31.7323n66.211w, 29.885n67.781w, 31.729n66.233w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 21.3n60.9w- 22.1n61.4w- 22.8n61.6w- 23.4n62.2w- 23.6n62.7w, 23.6n62.7w- 23.8n62.8w- 24.1n62.7w- 24.5n62.5w- 24.8n62.5w, 24.8n62.5w-25.0n62.6w, 25.0n62.6w-25.1n62.7w, 25.1n62.7w-25.3n62.8w, 25.3n62.8w-25.6n62.8w, 25.3n62.8w-32.382n62.8w, 32.368n64.647w-32.382n62.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
12 mi deep... that's not too deep for major damage of 7.9 quake I think...
Quoting hcubed:


Yet studies of a specific local area like the Arctic Ocean (which doesn't cover the entire globe) is a perfect example of Global Warming?

Don't you get it? Only studies that support global warming are valid for global warming. That's good science.
1261. WxLogic
Quoting Grothar:
Early models on 90L



Initialization is good... that's where the LLC appears to be:



Around 30.3N 86.5W
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



yes, but my family lives right near where the strike is..
Wow... I hope your family is safe in the aftermath!
Whoopsie:

THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.
Quoting Grothar:


So far this is what we know. If you paid more attention in school, you could tell us what this means.

I am paying attention... just don't understand the words my teacher is saying to the class -_- I am on because it's lunch time.
1265. JasonRE
What is this I see on local weather about something possibly forming by Thursday afternoon in the GOM? Is this Isaac 2? KATC futurecast information.....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Whoopsie:

THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.
Fail...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Whoopsie:

THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.


lol
The tectonic plates off Costa Rica and Western Pacific along Central and South America are subduction, yes?
1270. Grothar
1271. WxLogic
Quoting Neapolitan:
Whoopsie:

THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.


At least they were quick about it.
1272. sar2401
Quoting CloudGatherer:


If this thing develops the way the models show, it'd be Nadine, right? I'm not that strong on my naming conventions, but since the discussions haven't been talking about 'Isaac redeveloping,' I presume it'd be considered a new storm. Someone else know more?


Yes, it would be Nadine. It appears to be fully over the Gulf now while still retaining its "blob" identity. There's a fair amount of convection, especially on the west side of te blob. It still looks like what we had here in Alabama over the ast three days. The low, such as it is, hasn't seemed to deepened dramatically, since it's 29.88 here in Montogmery and 29.84 from a bouy offshore. There's a weak high pressure to the north that is going to heat us up dramatically the next few days, probably forming a thermal trough over MS and AL. I have no idea what 90L will ultimately do but, since it was a big rainmaker over land, with lots of convection, it should be about the same over the Gulf. My best guess is that the blob moves east over central FL and is then absorbed in the existing trough over the east coast of FL. If the nascent low associated with the blob, which appears to be right over Pensacola, start to deepen significantly, it could be a TD at least.

This is truly a weird year. If the blob develops, how many times has an overland low ever got back in the Gulf and developed by coming straight down through MS and AL, with no other passage over water? I don't think there have been many.
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Don't you get it? Only studies that support global warming are valid for global warming. That's good science.

Like the all-you-can-eat buffet; Take what you want and ignore the rest. Works so well in politics might as well apply it to the hard sciences, too!
Quoting CloudGatherer:
At the moment, UW-CIMSS sees Leslie as a solid Category One hurricane:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 979.2mb/ 74.6kt
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE


SSD is a little more skeptical, seeing it as a high-end tropical storm, but its estimate is pushing five hours old:
05/1145 UTC 25.9N 62.4W T3.5/3.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic


Am I crazy to think they'll upgrade at 11am?



DVorak Technique's margin of error is 15mb / -7mb.


The reason the error is larger on the "up" side is because the issue of kinetic energy relating to V^2 "squeezes" the margin of error for faster winds.









Quoting sonofagunn:
The quake looks to be on the Pacific Coast - why would there be a tsunami watch in the Caribbean?


Seismic waves don't care which side of a peninsula the quake happened on.

There was an 8 inch Tsunami in Lake Pontchartrain from the 8.8 magnitude Chile Quake, and that's like a sixth of the way around the planet...


It's unlikely, but you could see a few feet of tsunami action on the Caribbean side in some locations. That's enough to throw boats around, or drown children near the coast.

Edit:

I see they cancelled the warning, so they obviously aren't expecting more than a few inches. So the point is moot now.
I have been reading this blog for a few years now and respect all of the Professionals that help to inform us.
I do wish though that they would remove all of the mindless crap and discussion that is not weather related. If you want to express feelings and discuss other topics besides tropical weather PLEASE GO SOMEWHERE ELSE!. I wish that however monitors this blog would limit any comment or blogger that isn't a professional!
1st and last time non professional commentary!
1276. sar2401
Quoting AegirsGal:
The tectonic plates off Costa Rica and Western Pacific along Central and South America are subduction, yes?


Yep, one huge subduction zone, all the way up to Washington State.
Quoting SLU:
NO WAY!

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 5
Location: 25.7�N 62.8�W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph



It's not stacked guys.

The mid-level circulation is still out of alignment by like 1/3rd of it's diameter.

Shear is dropping, so it will fix itself over the next 12 to 24, but the bigger issue is that the upper level environment still has a long way to go to develop a full anti-cyclone.
1278. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Gro, that model run pretty well matches my thinking. The blob will meander until it's south of the Big Bend area, then get picked up by the steering currents and go over Florida and into the Atlantic. I have no clue as to if it remains a blob or develops into something more. What's your "non-forecast"? :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Uh-oh:

7.9


000
WECA41 PHEB 051447
TSUCAX

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1447 UTC WED SEP 05 2012

THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

... A CARIBBEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

BRAZIL / BARBADOS / TRINIDAD TOBAGO / FRENCH GUIANA /
SAINT LUCIA / MARTINIQUE / ST VINCENT / DOMINICA / BARBUDA /
GUADELOUPE / MONTSERRAT / ANTIGUA / SAINT KITTS / ANGUILLA /
GRENADA / SAINT MARTIN / SAINT MAARTEN / DOMINICAN REP /
TURKS N CAICOS / BONAIRE / CURACAO / BAHAMAS / VENEZUELA /
HAITI / BERMUDA / SURINAME / ARUBA / CUBA / GUYANA / COLOMBIA /
JAMAICA / GRAND CAYMAN / CAYMAN BRAC / PANAMA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS / COSTA RICA / BELIZE / NICARAGUA / GUATEMALA

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1442Z 05 SEP 2012
COORDINATES - 9.9 NORTH 85.5 WEST
LOCATION - OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA
MAGNITUDE - 7.9


yeah, that's gonna leave a mark.

Hope nobody got/gets hurt.

7.9 initial magnitude is 22.6 times more powerful than the 7.0 Haiti Quake....
. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LESLIE COULD INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY THAN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO..


I think the NHC should be in school, and I should be at the NHC
Quoting AegirsGal:
Has anyone else seen this?
Link
It would seem that Hurricane Isaac got in to the archeological salvage business for a minute.

Ship gets uncovered with almost every significant storm in the Gulf, dating back at least to Camille, 1969. I've seen it after Ivan, Gustav, Ike, Isaac. The neighborhoosd covers it back up with sand after they get tired of all the attention from visitors - parking problems, etc.
1282. dabirds
OK, just saw on Post Dispatch site, in article about storms passing through now, that they are now forecasting a high of 101 w/ 108 HI for StL - wow! Mets and Cards have to be happy they have a day game. At least it's only 70 at the moment there. Seems to be pushing a blob from the SW int the area behind the line that just pushed through to the SE. Guess after it gets through and sun pops it will heat up. Hope it stalls before it gets here. Get any drops from this ILwthr? Bet we got at least an inch.

90L is making the guy in my avatar want to sing, but I'll hold him off for now.
Quoting CloudGatherer:


If this thing develops the way the models show, it'd be Nadine, right? I'm not that strong on my naming conventions, but since the discussions haven't been talking about 'Isaac redeveloping,' I presume it'd be considered a new storm. Someone else know more?

When Ivan made the loop and re-entered the Gulf, it was still called Ivan, but it was trackable all the time, they are saying this one will not be re-named Isaac but probably Nadine. When Ivan revisited the Gulf it had a westerly track - to TX, I think.
90L is now analyzed at 1010mb, cauze it's over land and they got instruments on it.

Steering:

1000mb



990mb




It looks like 90L is going to merge with the naked LLC in the central gulf (any moment now) and will back up into the central or east-central gulf and get a head of steam worked up, before turning northeast and hitting Florida.


What the heck, it's the Gulf; I'll give it mid-level TS at least for the "landfall".
1285. GetReal



90L appears to be spinning up a "center" approximately 30 miles south of Gulf Breeze, Fl., heading south for now.
1286. MahFL
Quoting stormchaser19:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 25.7N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 26.8N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 27.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 32.4N 64.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 10/1200Z 39.5N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Bermuda needs to prepare for a Cat.3


They already have, new houses there are rated to 150 mph.
1287. guygee
Quoting hcubed:
Yet studies of a specific local area like the Arctic Ocean (which doesn't cover the entire globe) is a perfect example of Global Warming?
The title of the paper you cited is:
"A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability-View from the Beach".

Big difference between a "View from the Beach" and the entire Arctic Ocean. Earth has only two poles, and one of them is in the Arctic Ocean, so that makes this larger region very important for climate in the Northern Hemisphere. A view from the beach is very local in comparison.