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Lee's winds fan deadly Texas fires; a dangerous day for Lee's floods and tornadoes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:43 PM GMT on September 05, 2011

Texas' unprecedented heat wave and drought turned deadly yesterday when fires fanned by Tropical Storm Lee's gusty winds swept through East Texas, torching 300 homes near Austin, and killing a woman and her 18-month old daughter who couldn't escape the flames in Gladewater. At Austin Bergstrom Airport yesterday afternoon, the counter-clockwise circulation around Tropical Storm Lee brought sustained winds of 25 mph, gusting to 31. Lee didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin, and the afternoon high hit 102°, with a humidity of 22%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in extremely critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is marginally better--temperatures will be cooler, only reaching the upper 80s, but strong winds of 20 - 25 mph will continue to blow, and the atmosphere will be drier, with humidities in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has declared a "Critical" fire weather danger area for East Texas today, one level below yesterday's "Extremely Critical" conditions. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.)

Texas' unprecedented heat
For as long as people have been taking weather measurements in Texas, there has never been a summer hotter than the summer of 2011. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.


Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday Sep 5, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped in excess of ten inches of rain sections of Louisiana and Mississippi (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Heavy rains from Lee creating dangerous flooding situation
Tropical Storm Lee has been absorbed by a cold front, and is no longer a tropical depression. However, the remnants of Lee are bringing torrential rains to the South and Appalachians today, and pose a serious flood threat. NOAA's latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast warns that "an excessive and life-threatening rainfall event will be unfolding today and tonight across the Tennessee Valley and also the Southern Appalachians." A wide region of 4 - 8 inches of rain is expected along the path of Lee's remnants as they slide northeastwards along the front. These rains will likely accumulate later this week to 2 - 3 inches over New England regions devastated by Hurricane Irene's floods. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has logged 22 tornado reports so far from Lee, and today promises to be the most serious day for tornadoes yet, with SPC predicting a "Moderate Risk" of tornadoes across the South. Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 10 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Mobile, AL: 11.35"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Cumberland City, TN: 5.09"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Plum Springs, KY: 3.10"


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Monday - 8 am EDT Saturday, Sep 10, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 3. Severe weather risk for Monday, September 5, 2011.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is close to major hurricane strength, and is now a high-end Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye and good upper-level outflow on all sides, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to the impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear on its south side.

The computer models have finally come into agreement on the long-range future of Katia, determining that the trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. later this week will turn the hurricane to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, though Newfoundland, Canada will need to watch future forecasts to see how close Katia may pass to the southeastern portion of that province. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia are arriving at the Southeast U.S. coast today, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west at 15 mph. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to drop to the low range tomorrow, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in two or so days. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday; given the storm's rather impressive organization and spin apparent on recent satellite loops, I'd put these odds at 40%. The NOGAPS model predicts 95L will develop by Saturday, a few hundred miles north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but this storm could just as easily pass directly through the Lesser Antilles on Saturday or Sunday, and develop into a tropical storm much sooner. If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands this weekend, pay attention to 95L.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee early this morning. The front is expected to continue to the east and stall out Tuesday and Wednesday along a line from Louisiana to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Several recent runs of the ECMWF and GFS models have given support to the idea that a tropical depression would form at the tail end of this front late this week, in Mexico's Bay of Campeche. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle, while a more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. NHC is currently not highlighting the Bay of Campeche in their Tropical Weather Outlook, and it will likely be Wednesday before enough heavy thunderstorms build to warrant mention.

Jeff Masters
Up In Smoke
Up In Smoke
Another wildfire this afternoon in Bridgeport, Tx... still burning!
Mandeville, Louisiana Lakefront during TS LEE
Mandeville, Louisiana Lakefront during TS LEE
Lake Pontchartrain Lakefront
Lake Pontchartrain Lakefront
TS Lee still affecting Louisiana
Tropical Storm Lee-Day 2 #2
Tropical Storm Lee-Day 2 #2

Fire Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting WxLogic:
Here we go...



Please let be the storm in BOC the savior for Texas! Bring the rain to them!

Quoting Skeptic33:


Please let be the storm in BOC the savior for Texas! Bring the rain to them!




not a ch it bone dry in TX if a name storm trys too make it there it will go poof
Katia: 125 mph

95L: 70%

BOC Disturbance: 20% (Invest coming soon!)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
2506. WxLogic
The DB in the BOC would either head to the W to WSW into Mexico or it would head NE into the FL Panhandle/N FL region.

If the DB drifts W today into tomorrow then it will get caught under a temporary building High over C CONUS and get displaced W/WSW.

If the DB drifts E to NE then it will get stuck in a weak steering current over the N/NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for a couple days and finally get kick to the NE to ENE (depending on the orientation of the cut off low (courtesy of Lee) as it attempts to build W, over the C CONUS region.
Severe thunderstorms knocked out power for some people around here, mine briefly as well at around 5:00 AM and did other damage but for some reason no warning was issued, we had top wind gusts of 60 mph here. I don't know if whoever was on the job was a little tired or what, but we had some serious weather this morning that should have had a warning.
Quoting WxLogic:
The DB in the BOC would either head to the W to WSW into Mexico or it would head NE into the FL Panhandle/N FL region.

If the DB drifts W today into tomorrow then it will get caught under a temporary building High over C CONUS and get displaced W/WSW.

If the DB drifts E to NE then it will get stuck in a weak steering current over the N/NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for a couple days and finally get kick to the NE to ENE (depending on the orientation of the cut off low (courtesy of Lee) as it attempts to build W, over the C CONUS region.


Models have back off on wanting to move the system into Florida, even though they all were showing that at first, I'm telling you, everything is avoiding Floria, we have been very fortunate.
Quoting Skeptic33:


Please let be the storm in BOC the savior for Texas! Bring the rain to them!



Agreed. But something has to move that High out of there first.
2510. WxLogic
Quoting Skeptic33:


Please let be the storm in BOC the savior for Texas! Bring the rain to them!



Unfortunately is going to be hard with the current pattern. I happen to post a little overview of the pattern which would favor an either W/WSW track (into MX) or NE/ENE into N FL. Due to the configuration of the High/Low.
Quoting Skeptic33:


That is crazy. They went from new records for hottest weather to coldest weather in matter of days.




AGC!
the S gulf is no to have RI and wind shear right now down there is vary low down too 5kt or less so this could take off in no time
Quoting Jedkins01:


Models have back off on wanting to move the system into Florida, even though they all were showing that at first, I'm telling you, everything is avoiding Floria, we have been very fortunate.


Well, anything that went there would more than likely be weak.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Models have back off on wanting to move the system into Florida, even though they all were showing that at first, I'm telling you, everything is avoiding Floria, we have been very fortunate.



your luck will soon run out trust me
2515. WxLogic
Quoting Jedkins01:


Models have back off on wanting to move the system into Florida, even though they all were showing that at first, I'm telling you, everything is avoiding Floria, we have been very fortunate.


Indeed... there has been quite a bit of flip/flops. Once we see the upper level pattern get better established we'll see if this new DB would displace to the W or NE in time.
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... there has been quite a bit of flip/flops. Once we see the upper level pattern get better established we'll see if this new DB would displace to the W or NE in time.



What is DB?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



What's is DB?


Disturbance.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Disturbance.



Thankyou..I'm more used To "AOI" or Invest or even "BLOB".
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Thankyou..I'm more used To "AOI" or Invest or even "BLOB".


I am used to thingy
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Thankyou..I'm more used To "AOI" or Invest or even "BLOB".


lol, your welcome.
Gotta go to work. What a drag. Have a good day all.
Even you lefties.
2523. WxLogic
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Thankyou..I'm more used To "AOI" or Invest or even "BLOB".


:) ... so may terms.
Well, I'm heading off for school. See ya this afternoon...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, I'm heading off for school. See ya this afternoon...


have fun
2526. FLdewey
Cold front... strange for FL this time of year.

2527. hydrus
Quoting Tazmanian:



your luck will soon run out trust me


well lets hope soon is in terms of years not days or weeks, lol
Quoting Jedkins01:
Severe thunderstorms knocked out power for some people around here, mine briefly as well at around 5:00 AM and did other damage but for some reason no warning was issued, we had top wind gusts of 60 mph here. I don't know if whoever was on the job was a little tired or what, but we had some serious weather this morning that should have had a warning.
I thought so too. I'm in the NW corner of Hillsborough and was hit by the same thunderstorm soon after you, recording a wind gust of 55 mph at 7:14. There wasn't even a sps issued regarding that storm.
Quoting FLdewey:
Cold front... strange for FL this time of year.



It's a much needed break from the sauna we have had out there. Feels pretty good right now.
2531. hydrus
Way out in time, but looks familiar..I hope this is not a black box..
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... there has been quite a bit of flip/flops. Once we see the upper level pattern get better established we'll see if this new DB would displace to the W or NE in time.



Yeah if they are flip flopping that decreases any chance of it coming this way though, their initial solution was this way but now that its flip-flopping its less likely. I'm not fully sure I understand why it wouldn't head this way, I guess the models are now showing the front washed out then high pressure to block it from moving northeast.

I just assumed a stalling front should allow any system in the gulf to head northeast this way, but like I said, it looks like models are now spinning it up after the front is completely decayed.
2533. FLdewey
Quoting hydrus:
Way out in time, but looks familiar..I hope this is not a black box..


LOL... black box.
Quoting hydrus:
Way out in time, but looks familiar..I hope this is not a black box..


So far out in time it's post-apocalyptic!
The front is stalling over Tampa. We're in for a rainy day
2536. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:


LOL... black box.
Well check this out, it looks ominous..Link
2537. FLdewey
Hmmm...

Quoting Tazmanian:



your luck will soon run out trust me


what are you seeing Taz?
Quoting FLdewey:
Hmmm...




DOOM?
2540. FLdewey
Quoting hydrus:
Well check this out, it looks ominous..Link


Uhhhhh... huh huh huh.

That's just freaky.
2541. FLdewey
Quoting BobinTampa:



DOOM?


Another HypOcane for sure. Need milk jugs and sharpies.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I thought so too. I'm in the NW corner of Hillsborough and was hit by the same thunderstorm soon after you, recording a wind gust of 55 mph at 7:14. There wasn't even a sps issued regarding that storm.
Yeah it was ridiculous, I woke up to a severe thunderstorm with damaging winds and I was really shocked to see it not warned. I was watching bay news 9 and they said thousands of customers lots power in Pinellas and there has been some scattered tree damage as well, a lot of those power outages were around here. I saw lots of debris flying through the air, and electrical arch flashes all over. I'm assuming some areas just a ways west of me, closer to the beach, probably got winds even higher than 60 mph.

We usually don't get that much power out around here unless wind gusts are between 60 and 70 mph or more for at least a decent amount of time. Those winds were persistent too, just like a tropical cyclone rain band.

The weird thing is the NWS issued warnings on some storms last night but they never did any damage, but the ones powerful enough to be destructive don't get warnings. That isn't the first time Ive seen that here, it seems weather warnings are a little slow around here. I remember we had a thunderstorm a couple years back that was probably one of the meanest of the entire rainy season, the lightning was apocalyptic and we had destructive winds. In the morning I woke up to find out that a micro burst over 70 mph tore up some homes not far from here and a confirmed tornado touched down a ways south as well, but no warnings were issued. Up in Michigan I remember they were the opposite, trigger happy with warnings lol
2543. beell
click for full discussion


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2011

...SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING CAROLINAS/VA

A SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF DEEP
LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...IS SUGGESTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT VIA A WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO
RISK. THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL BE ACROSS NC/SOUTHERN VA IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL
LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED
...

Surface, Fronts, Weather
Valid 00Z (this afternoon/evening)
Warm front across northern NC.

Quoting Jedkins01:
Yeah it was ridiculous, I woke up to a severe thunderstorm with damaging winds and I was really shocked to see it not warned. I was watching bay news 9 and they said thousands of customers lots power in Pinellas and there has been some scattered tree damage as well, a lot of those power outages were around here. I saw lots of debris flying through the air, and electrical arch flashes all over. I'm assuming some areas just a ways west of me, closer to the beach, probably got winds even higher than 60 mph.

We usually don't get that much power out around here unless wind gusts are between 60 and 70 mph or more for at least a decent amount of time. Those winds were persistent too, just like a tropical cyclone rain band.

The weird thing is the NWS issued warnings on some storms last night but they never did any damage, but the ones powerful enough to be destructive don't get warnings. That isn't the first time Ive seen that here, it seems weather warnings are a little slow around here. Up in Michigan I remember they were the opposite, trigger happy with warnings lol


my nephew texted me and said 'hurricane?'. It definintely had the feel of a feeder band.
2545. xcool
96L COME soon boc
Quoting FLdewey:


Another HypOcane for sure. Need milk jugs and sharpies.



I've washed my arms thoroughly and written my SSN on all my empty milk jugs.


What next?

Quoting FLdewey:


Uhhhhh... huh huh huh.

That's just freaky.


At least they are models based on what could be down the line. In any event- they are just solutions based on 'ghosts' for now.
Quoting BobinTampa:



I've washed my arms thoroughly and written my SSN on all my empty milk jugs.


What next?



Balloon on a beer bottle for a barometer.
Quoting BobinTampa:



I've washed my arms thoroughly and written my SSN on all my empty milk jugs.


What next?



bourbon
Do we have any morning updates on the Texas fires?
2551. emcf30
Quoting FLdewey:


Another HypOcane for sure. Need milk jugs and sharpies.

Can not forget the Cheetos
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The front is stalling over Tampa. We're in for a rainy day


The front is stalling but it seems like the main squall line of heavy convection is starting to press a little east now though, Ive had 1.55 so far this morning, almost 3 inches just a bit west of me though.

Quoting FLdewey:


Uhhhhh... huh huh huh.

That's just freaky.
Fldeway I cant see the link.It comes up a blank box with a red X on it.Can u post it here for me to see? TIA...Oh and good morning everyone.Sorry didnt mean to be rude.Hope everyone is recovering from Lee.
2554. SLU


526

WHXX01 KWBC 061228

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1228 UTC TUE SEP 6 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110906 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110906 1200 110907 0000 110907 1200 110908 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.8N 33.7W 11.7N 37.5W 13.3N 41.9W 14.8N 46.7W

BAMD 10.8N 33.7W 11.8N 36.1W 13.0N 38.9W 14.2N 41.7W

BAMM 10.8N 33.7W 12.0N 36.4W 13.4N 39.7W 14.9N 43.3W

LBAR 10.8N 33.7W 11.6N 36.0W 12.3N 38.9W 13.1N 42.0W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110908 1200 110909 1200 110910 1200 110911 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.1N 51.6W 17.6N 60.0W 18.6N 66.3W 19.2N 70.6W

BAMD 15.4N 44.5W 17.2N 49.5W 19.0N 53.2W 19.9N 56.0W

BAMM 16.3N 47.0W 18.8N 54.2W 22.0N 59.8W 25.0N 63.6W

LBAR 13.7N 45.4W 15.0N 51.3W 17.5N 55.7W 9.7N 53.1W

SHIP 41KTS 50KTS 60KTS 69KTS

DSHP 41KTS 50KTS 60KTS 69KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 33.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 31.4W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 30.1W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

2555. bappit
Quoting hydrus:
Way out in time, but looks familiar..I hope this is not a black box..

Use preview?
2556. pottery
BREAKING NEWS

A shower of rain fell here this morning early.
The grass is slightly damp underfoot.
Nothing was contained within the RainGuage.
Strange and Exotic Gyrations are being performed under the Calabash Tree in the Hope that the clouds which are currently mingling about out in the Atlantic will somehow come this way.

Please stay tuned for more Optimistic statements, as they come to hand.....
About to get another nice cell, 40 to 50 mph gusts expected with this one.
2558. emcf30
Map of fires and damage reported in the Austin area.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC103-061300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0088.110906T1233Z-110906T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
833 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 832 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TREASURE ISLAND...OR NEAR
SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TREASURE ISLAND.
LEALMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 2793 8266 2792 8263 2788 8261 2789 8258
2781 8258 2778 8261 2773 8262 2768 8268
2769 8270 2767 8271 2763 8275 2772 8275
2782 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 229DEG 41KT 2776 8275

$$







Scratch that, severe thunderstorm headed for me, I guess the new forecaster has had his coffee unlike the dude earlier this morning who didn't issue a warning lol, this one is about the same as what we had this morning, pretty mean looking, not quite here yet though.
I know nothing is set in stone, but Dr. Masters and others seemed pretty confident that anything that formed the BOC would head either ne or eastly. I wonder what changed so much to have the models forecasting west? Or at least the GFS
2561. hydrus
Quoting pottery:
BREAKING NEWS

A shower of rain fell here this morning early.
The grass is slightly damp underfoot.
Nothing was contained within the RainGuage.
Strange and Exotic Gyrations are being performed under the Calabash Tree in the Hope that the clouds which are currently mingling about out in the Atlantic will somehow come this way.

Please stay tuned for more Optimistic statements, as they come to hand.....
Good mornin Pott..Is there a shrine next to the"tree"..It sounds like one belongs there..:)
2562. hydrus
Quoting bappit:

Use preview?
I dont know what preview is..All my black boxes show up normal here, and as black boxes for yall..I will work on it..
Quoting presslord:
Do we have any morning updates on the Texas fires?
Waiting on the Texas Forest Service update this morning. I believe they come out at 8:00.
2564. hotrods
Does anybody else besides me think that 95L just might have that little bit of chance to a make a run towards the southeast coast-----> Bahamas to Florida, i know models are going to go back and forth, but been pretty much inline so far.
Quoting hotrods:
Does anybody else besides me think that 95L just might have that little bit of chance to a make a run towards the southeast coast-----> Bahamas to Florida, i know models are going to go back and forth, but been pretty much inline so far.
I don't think so, but I know others do. I think it will follow the pattern, and in Katia's wake
2566. 7544
Quoting hotrods:
Does anybody else besides me think that 95L just might have that little bit of chance to a make a run towards the southeast coast-----> Bahamas to Florida, i know models are going to go back and forth, but been pretty much inline so far.


too early to tell but some form somthing in front of 95l and brings it that way have to wait and see if we get a invest just ahead of 95l good morning all coffee time
2567. beell
click for discussion

Quoting FLdewey:


LOL... black box.


2569. SLU
Quoting pottery:
BREAKING NEWS

A shower of rain fell here this morning early.
The grass is slightly damp underfoot.
Nothing was contained within the RainGuage.
Strange and Exotic Gyrations are being performed under the Calabash Tree in the Hope that the clouds which are currently mingling about out in the Atlantic will somehow come this way.

Please stay tuned for more Optimistic statements, as they come to hand.....


Been a rather dry wet season this year ....
2570. hotrods
Thanks, i guess will just have to wait and see what happens, how the weather patterns change etc.
2571. wjdow
Quoting Clearwater1:
I know nothing is set in stone, but Dr. Masters and others seemed pretty confident that anything that formed the BOC would head either ne or eastly. I wonder what changed so much to have the models forecasting west? Or at least the GFS


If I recall correctly, by what NHC said in it's earliest advisory the models vary depending on how far south the center of circulation forms.


The new invest may already be too far north to do you any good Potts. But looking at it now, maybe that's for the best in the long run.
2574. Stats56
Quoting FLdewey:


Another HypOcane for sure. Need milk jugs and sharpies.


Guess I really started something with the sharpies ;)
Quoting Jedkins01:


well lets hope soon is in terms of years not days or weeks, lol
mid sept thru end october we'll get atleast one tc landfaall in florida this yr imo,i terested in the possblity of a tc entering the gom from the nw carib in 9-10 days
Quoting BobinTampa:


my nephew texted me and said 'hurricane?'. It definintely had the feel of a feeder band.


Yeah it sure did! Just had another round, gusted to 50 here again, its amazing to thin that tropical storm Lee moved inland and weakened a while ago but just its remnants merging with a cold front still has that tropical feel. The convection is still tropical in nature, worse than the colors appear on radar lol.
Euro with small TC headed to North Central GoM on Sunday....BoC invest now

Quoting stormpetrol:


Good morning

I was just about to post that. Quite a mess really but the closest thing to a center looks to be near 10 N and 35.5 W. Hopefully ASCAT will catch it and give us a better idea on the organization of 95L but for now it has a very broad low pressure that would probably not take too long to tighten up.
2579. SLU
KATIA now 120mph



297

WHXX01 KWBC 061236

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1236 UTC TUE SEP 6 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA (AL122011) 20110906 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110906 1200 110907 0000 110907 1200 110908 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 26.7N 65.6W 27.8N 67.5W 28.9N 69.3W 30.2N 70.8W

BAMD 26.7N 65.6W 27.7N 66.8W 28.4N 68.1W 29.3N 69.2W

BAMM 26.7N 65.6W 27.8N 67.2W 28.6N 68.8W 29.7N 70.2W

LBAR 26.7N 65.6W 28.2N 67.1W 29.8N 68.9W 31.7N 70.5W

SHIP 105KTS 100KTS 97KTS 95KTS

DSHP 105KTS 100KTS 97KTS 95KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110908 1200 110909 1200 110910 1200 110911 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.1N 71.3W 36.7N 69.4W 38.9N 55.6W 42.4N 33.3W

BAMD 30.7N 69.8W 34.9N 67.9W 39.1N 54.6W 47.0N 30.4W

BAMM 31.3N 70.9W 36.1N 68.5W 40.6N 52.9W 49.4N 29.5W

LBAR 34.1N 71.6W 39.6N 69.6W 41.5N 55.6W .0N .0W

SHIP 88KTS 77KTS 69KTS 63KTS

DSHP 88KTS 77KTS 69KTS 63KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 26.7N LONCUR = 65.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.6N LONM12 = 64.0W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 24.2N LONM24 = 62.6W

WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 115KT

CENPRS = 954MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 280NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 105NM RD34NW = 135NM



$$

NNNN

HELP REPOSTING TO HELP OUT) Our friends in magnolia are in the direct path of the fire and had to let their 2 horses go (with their phone number on them) bc the fire was behind their house and we couldn't get to their house with the trailer. Please anyone, if you find a bay mare and a sorrel gelding, please call the number on the horses or 361-227-7735
Quoting wjdow:


If I recall correctly, by what NHC said in it's earliest advisory the models vary depending on how far south the center of circulation forms.


Yes, I agree. Yesterday the models had the low forming just north of the Yucatan and moved it NE. Now some form it farther SW in the BoC and move it into Mexico before much development.
2582. FLdewey
Slight risk for Central FL... woot woot.

KATIA


95L
2584. FLdewey
Quoting Stats56:


Guess I really started something with the sharpies ;)


Be honest... how much Sharpie stock DO you own?

*taps foot*
Quoting hotrods:
Does anybody else besides me think that 95L just might have that little bit of chance to a make a run towards the southeast coast-----> Bahamas to Florida, i know models are going to go back and forth, but been pretty much inline so far.
i hope anything out that far developed most likely will go out to sea need to watch the weaker areas see if they develop in the carib.
2586. hcubed
Quoting BobinTampa:



I've washed my arms thoroughly and written my SSN on all my empty milk jugs.


What next?



Sounds like we're getting ready to go through a SCRC.

Shower Curtain Replacement Cycle.
Quoting Clearwater1:
I know nothing is set in stone, but Dr. Masters and others seemed pretty confident that anything that formed the BOC would head either ne or eastly. I wonder what changed so much to have the models forecasting west? Or at least the GFS


Was thinking I saw that to . West into Mexico. If it does do that I hope it get as close to TX as possible to give some rain. That would be great. Or better yet go into TX.
... A significant weather advisory is in effect for strong wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph over southeastern Lake County... Orange County... northwestern Osceola County... Seminole County... Volusia County...

* until 1000 am EDT.

At 902 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a ling of storms capable of producing strong wind gusts approaching the Interstate 4 area... moving quickly northeast at 30 mph.

The storms will move across areas including Daytona Beach... Sanford and along the Interstate 4 corridor through Metro Orlando and the attractions area through 10 am.

The primary threat will be cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph... which can cause unsecured objects to blow around... snap tree limbs or cause power outages. Heavy rainfall will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the storm passes.

Lat... Lon 2908 8093 2907 8090 2892 8081 2879 8094
2879 8097 2876 8097 2818 8152 2826 8156
2826 8166 2834 8167 2835 8186 2838 8192
2927 8126 2927 8116 2940 8116 2943 8110
time... Mot... loc 1300z 222deg 27kt 2887 8141

L8R



Hey Chicklit thanks for the heads up I just logged on and saw your post! Good Morning Everyone, have a safe day.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 05 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/17Z
B. AFXXX 0112A KATIA
C. 06/1415Z
D. 27.5N 66.5W
E. 06/1615Z-06/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL 07/17Z FIX
3. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSIONS
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/11Z AND 07/11Z.
img src="IMG 20110906 090920">,looking out into the gom to the south here in siesta key this morning
First appearances are that 95L will follow a similarish track as some of its predecessors, which means CONUS landfall will be less than overly likely...and maybe Antilles also.
Quoting FLdewey:
Slight risk for Central FL... woot woot.



Yeah we are feeling Ex-Lees wrath, LOL.

We have had some pretty intense storms their morning though. I guess they figured to throw in a slight risk because we've had damage around here.
2595. bassis
Quoting Chicklit:
KATIA


95L


It appears that Katia had some dry air for a snack and is sitting there in one place digesting.
Quoting presslord:
Do we have any morning updates on the Texas fires?
Good Morning all from very smokey South Central Texas, my low was 61, humidity 35 percent, winds around 10 mph.

The fire at Cedar Creek is 10 percent contained. The Bastrop fire is 0 percent contained.

The Steiner Ranch fire: preliminary cause of the Steiner Ranch fire is two power lines rubbing together, according to a rep with the Capital Area Fire Association.

The containment on this fire and other fires west of Austin is doing pretty good and above 50 percent.

I have friends in Leander, Bastrop, Smithville, Cedar Park, Cedar Creek. They either lost their homes or had to evacuate. The friend in Leander has had 3 fires in his area this year.

Chains dragging, power lines, cars driving over dead grass, cigarettes, bar b qs, arson there have been several reasons for these fires but it does not take much to start a fire whenever everything is dead.

The City of Bastrop bless their hearts, around 6,000 people there including my daughter, they are beyond suffering. My daughter is with me now not knowing if she has a home or when she will be able to return to a home or to work in Bastrop.

Thank You Bloggers for all your prayers and well wishes, have a great day.
2597. Matt74
Quoting hydrus:
Thats 20%?
Quoting stillwaiting:
img src="IMG 20110906 090920">,looking out into the gom to the south here in siesta key this morning
2599. beell
Developing dry slot (maybe) over western NC/SC should aid destabilization/buoyancy later today.

Quoting pottery:
BREAKING NEWS

A shower of rain fell here this morning early.
The grass is slightly damp underfoot.
Nothing was contained within the RainGuage.
Strange and Exotic Gyrations are being performed under the Calabash Tree in the Hope that the clouds which are currently mingling about out in the Atlantic will somehow come this way.

Please stay tuned for more Optimistic statements, as they come to hand.....
Morning All ... Thank you Pottery: Great Start to my Day! Love it! :)
NEW BLOG, early today
NEW BLOG
Good Morning. Lee has produced lots of flooding and damage in one form or another all over the Gulf/SE (and still more in Florida to go from the the combined front/trailing edge) so I am hoping that 95L will stay out to sea. Lee's remnants soaked Northern Florida for the past several days and plenty of fallen and snapped trees and limbs (some on homes and cars) and tornadoes when the front came through yesterday. Mother Nature will do what she wants but we don't need any more canes for the US this year (with the exception of a grave need for some tropical moisture for Texas). So, I am basically hoping for one more good soaking TS to move West into Texas but nothing more.
Texans are in my prayers. Those fires are Kicka@@ and if I had to chose a disaster, fires would be at the bottom of my list. Really sorry what some are going through.
H.Katia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 5Sept_12pmGMT and ending 6Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Katia's travel-speed was 10mph(16.1k/h) on a heading of 305.0degrees(NW)
H.Katia was headed toward passage over MyrtleBeach,SouthCarolina ~3days19hours from now

Copy&paste 24.2n62.6w-24.8n63.4w, 24.8n63.4w-25.6n64.0w, 25.6n64.0w-26.2n64.8w, 26.2n64.8w-26.7n65.6w, bda, 26.2n64.8w-33.734n78.826w, myr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 6Sept_6amGMT)
Quoting beell:
Developing dry slot (maybe) over western NC/SC should aid destabilization/buoyancy later today.



It doesn't necessarily have to be a dry slot, it could just be clearing of high clouds. We have many days in Florida with very high moisture and very little clouds till storms start popping. Whereas air can often be quite dry on overcast with high level clouds.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Lee has produced lots of flooding and damage in one form or another all over the Gulf/SE (and still more in Florida to go from the the combined front/trailing edge) so I am hoping that 95L will stay out to sea. Lee's remnants soaked Northern Florida for the past several days and plenty of fallen and snapped trees and limbs (some on homes and cars) and tornadoes when the front came through yesterday. Mother Nature will do what she wants but we don't need any more canes for the US this year (with the exception of a grave need for some tropical moisture for Texas). So, I am basically hoping for one more good soaking TS to move West into Texas but nothing more.



Unfortunately, I don't think Texas will be helped as much as some think if a T.S. does finally move in. Remember that tropical cyclones run on exceptionally high moisture content and any disruption of it can cause collapse of convection, even if the "dry air entrainment" is deep moisture in most cases.

Why is that significant? Well Texas is so dry, I have a feeling that heavy rain wouldn't get much farther inland beyond the immediate coast before evaporating due to extreme dry air and dust over the parched state. What Texas needs is a weather pattern change first before a tropical storm, I don't think a tropical storm would help as much as some think because my reasons listed. If Texas were to go through a long term pattern change to wetter weather, than a tropical storm could come in and produce more widespread heavy totals over a large area and farther inland.
why is the GOM convection being noticed?
2610. DFWjc
88% of the state now in extreme drought

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109061850
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011090618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Lee was NOT the last one Texas gets. DO NOT WORRY. Most texas droughts end in Floods and rains. That is likely the case with this drought as well. We WILL get another storm. Im not just saying this to be positive, i know we will get another one.