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Lee drenching the Gulf Coast; Katia a Cat 2

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on September 04, 2011

Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the southern coast of Louisiana near 4 am CDT this morning, and continues to inch slowly northward and dump very heavy rains. The storm is not a threat to intensify, since its center lies over land, but enough of the storm's circulation is over water that Lee will be slow to weaken. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 8.85" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 9 am CDT this morning. Top winds this morning hit 46 mph, gusting to 57 mph, at 6:28 am CDT, when a heavy squall blew in. Latest satellite loops show Lee has lost quite a bit of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, but the storm remains a formidable rain-maker. Lee brought a storm surge of 4 feet to New Canal Station in Lake Pontchartrain and at Shell Beach east of New Orleans yesterday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reported eight probable tornadoes from Lee yesterday. These tornadoes damaged approximately ten buildings, but caused no deaths or injuries.


Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped 5 -10 inches of rain over a large swath of the coast, with a few areas in excess of ten inches (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Sunday - 8 am EDT Friday, Sep 9, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size and slow movement will make heavy rains the main concern today. Later in the week, the remnants of Lee's may be a problem for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain. Tornadoes from Lee are a potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 9 am CDT.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia finally overcame the wind shear and dry air interfering with it, and intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this morning. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye for the first time, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to he impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on its southwest side.

Katia will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days, but may be a threat to the U.S. late this week. The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week. We have two of our reliable models--the ECMWF and UKMET--predicting that the trough will form farther west, steering Katia very close to North Carolina late this week. The rest of the models predict a more easterly position of the trough, which would force Katia to turn northwards towards Canada well before reaching North Carolina. Either scenario is possible, and it will probably be at least another day before the models converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's likely that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina will not receive a direct hit from Katia, but the entire coast from North Carolina northwards to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces is definitely at risk. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas tonight, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

Elsewhere in the tropics
This week and next week typically mark the two most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there are two potential threat areas we need to watch. The GFS model predicts that a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday this week. Several other models give support to this idea, and predict such a storm would track northwards or north-northeastwards towards the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other region to watch is between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting that a tropical wave currently near the coast of Africa could develop into a tropical depression late this week, and arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by Saturday or Sunday.

Jeff Masters
Tropical Strom Lee
Tropical Strom Lee
This is what happens when you do not tie up your boat.... This was taken in Pass Christian MS

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

TWC says depression LIKELY out of 95L
Come on guys, the advisory is out...Why hasn't anybody posted it?

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS A LARGE EYE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
2503. JLPR2
Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

huh?


The image is self explaining. Katia is to the west of that model suit.
2505. Relix
95L won't be affected by Katia. First! The upswelling is MINIMUM, and second... too far away =)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on guys, the advisory is out...Why hasn't anybody posted it?

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS A LARGE EYE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

I posted it...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on guys, the advisory is out...Why hasn't anybody posted it?

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS A LARGE EYE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

Already posted :)
Quoting MZT:


Basically, water *is* economics. State legislatures won't usually approve basin transfers for fear that they're cutting off their own economic growth down the road. Lawsuits always ensue, either from downriver cities or environmental groups.

You may as well ask the other states to just give money to Texas to build desalination plants. It'd be about as easy to persude them.
It is economics as you say, but is also a free market vs government owned utility as well.

A lot of our water shortages (of course lack of rain) because there is no price mechanism in place when a government agency is running a water department.

Example, does the price of your water ever change depending on supply and demand, which is the whole basic strategy of any business. My water bill only fluctuates in price every month, not based on the price of water per gallon, but the amount of usage I accumulated during that particular month.

A free market system would start raising the price of the gallon of water based on the supply way ahead of time to avert any water shortage in the future. People would have to decide early on if the water they use is truly a need, or a want. In most cases you could avoid having to water rationing down the road.

Everything else we buy each day is based on this basic principle, why not our water purchasing.
Katia is close to annular, but because of that one sprial band on the northeastern side of the system, it is not. I think it MAY become annular though as the days progress. On another note, its eye is Clearing out, its about Mostly Cloudy in there, becoming Mostly Sunny.



2510. Walshy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on guys, the advisory is out...Why hasn't anybody posted it?

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS A LARGE EYE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


Little late on that..
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I posted it...


Oh..didn't see it...Ditto must have ate it and then spit it back out. XD

Well it looks like 95L (Pre-Maria) is going to be the talk of the town in the next 10-14 days.. Here is something that comes to mind with this storm.....

Link
Whatever is left of Lee's LLC seems to be sliding east down the coast is now located very near the MS coast.
Well, I think Katia will go a little south of NHC's track but will get back onto the cone after 1 or 2 days and miss USA and Bermuda.
so long KATIA have fun out there with the FISH...
Katia weakens, then strengthens, then weakens, then strengthens...

She wants an eye, then she doesn't, then she does, then she doesn't.

What a fickle storm.
Keep forgetting those images a little behind...Here is a more up to date one.

Is the sharp re-curve for sure going to happen?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh..didn't see it...Ditto must have ate it and then spit it back out. XD


LOL
------------------
Anyways, 95L Models:
Quoting Dragod66:
Is the sharp re-curve for sure going to happen?


More than likely.
Quoting Dragod66:
Is the sharp re-curve for sure going to happen?
yes! Most likely, probably maybe, we'll see.
Quoting LargoFl:
Tampa shields getting an overhaul but will be ready


ZWWWWZZEEEEEEE (Sound of high electric current powering up the force field manipulator)

Shields are up and ready! The Tampa defense is impregnable!

The one problem is, if a hurricane ever figures out how to get past the deflector shields, we have no backup defense, and Tampa Bay will be sacked!
Our hideous Ex-Lee...
Lovely.
Quoting Dragod66:
Is the sharp re-curve for sure going to happen?
NHC seems to think it'll occurs with their 3 days forecast. I think it'll recurve as well way off USA, but East Coast should not let their guard down...
2526. SykKid
Quoting Dragod66:
Is the sharp re-curve for sure going to happen?


Yes, katia is going out to sea.

:)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
956 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 954 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES WEST OF
CENTURY...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERDIDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POARCH CREEK RESERVATION... FLOMATON...
MCCULLOUGH... I65 AND CR 1... I65 AND AL 21...
ATMORE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 66.
________________________________
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
959 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 956 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CRESTVIEW...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAKER...MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRESTVIEW...

IN ADDITION...THIS THUNDERSTORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE OF STORMS
WHICH HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AT ANY TIME. TAKE
COVER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.
LOL at BAMD
Quoting Jedkins01:


ZWWWWZZEEEEEEE (Sound of high electric current powering up the force field manipulator)

Shields are up and ready! The Tampa defense is impregnable!

The one problem is, if a hurricane ever figures out how to get past the deflector shields, we have no backup defense, and Tampa Bay will be sacked!


Josh Freeman can be difficult to get to the ground, though...
Quoting MZT:


Basically, water *is* economics. State legislatures won't usually approve basin transfers for fear that they're cutting off their own economic growth down the road. Lawsuits always ensue, either from downriver cities or environmental groups.

You may as well ask the other states to just give money to Texas to build desalination plants. It'd be about as easy to persude them.


There are water fights going on in FL right now so yes, water is a political hot button. Keep in mind that a lot of states would benefit by having the Missisippi tapped as it would lesson the threat of having damaging floods from result of too much snow melt & rains. I do think this can be a win-win situation with all states benefiting. Off course, you have politicians who don't do what is in the best interest of the people. I don't see an environmental downside here.
2531. HCW
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
TWC says depression LIKELY out of 95L


You just won the Darwin award for the day please contact Orcasystems for your prize
I'm fascinated by that tail of precipitation or cooler temperature trailing down all the way across the GOM! It reminds me of the meteorological equivalent of a "Double tap"

Link
2533. JLPR2
1009mb low with 95L, with a closed isobar.
All that 95L has to do is hold itself together, showing persistence and have a good d-max.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


More than likely.


so i still shouldn't let my guard down...
2537. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on guys, the advisory is out...Why hasn't anybody posted it?

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS A LARGE EYE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


It's no longer a potential threat to certain regions that shall remain unnamed.

Therefore interest is near zero now. It could ramp up to 200mph and hardly anyone would care.

Focus is elsewhere on storms that do not yet exist.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
LOL at BAMD


The other models are smart. They bring Lee to the Ohio border, where it goes "ew, Ohio" and does a u-turn
2540. P451
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL
------------------
Anyways, 95L Models:


DOOM!

I think we should issue TS warnings for NOLA. Just to be on the safe side.

katia will pass well east of the us mainland...katia will not even affect bermuda as she accelerates in speed out into the the cold atlantic...nothing for the n car coast to worry about this is a FISH STORM...
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
It is economics as you say, but is also a free market vs government owned utility as well.

A lot of our water shortages (of course lack of rain) because there is no price mechanism in place when a government agency is running a water department.

Example, does the price of your water ever change depending on supply and demand, which is the whole basic strategy of any business. My water bill only fluctuates in price every month, not based on the price of water per gallon, but the amount of usage I accumulated during that particular month.

A free market system would start raising the price of the gallon of water based on the supply way ahead of time to avert any water shortage in the future. People would have to decide early on if the water they use is truly a need, or a want. In most cases you could avoid having to water rationing down the road.

Everything else we buy each day is based on this basic principle, why not our water purchasing.


I believe in a free market, until it comes down to the basics for life. Should a free market control water then it will be shipped to the highest bidder and not necessarily to who needs it the most for life. You will find communities that are going through droughts competing against a paper mill, for example, that wants to expand its facility. That would unnecessarily drive up the costs or deny water for those most in need of the water. When a government entity owns the water then they will take care of the needs of their community and without a bidding war taking place. ..... Just my opinion.
Quoting Cotillion:


Josh Freeman can be difficult to get to the ground, though...


LOL this is true
Quoting HCW:


You just won the Darwin award for the day please contact Orcasystems for your prize
Now, now. See post #2470.
2545. SykKid
katia a fish and models not developing 95L...seems like hurricane seasons peak will be very quiet :o
2546. air360
Quoting GainesvilleGator:


There are water fights going on in FL right now so yes, water is a political hot button. Keep in mind that a lot of states would benefit by having the Missisippi tapped as it would lesson the threat of having damaging floods from result of too much snow melt & rains. I do think this can be a win-win situation with all states benefiting. Off course, you have politicians who don't do what is in the best interest of the people. I don't see an environmental downside here.


I could be way off here but are yall talking about a single pipe or massive amounts of water? For somewhere like TX i believe it would have to be massive amounts of water. If you were to divert massive amounts of the Mississippi it would lower the overall water levels all through the river in many areas. the center might still be ok but think if in any places where the water is two feet deep its now dry land. that could be a lot of area.

Now im not saying its a bad idea..i just think the amount of water to truly be effective to support a bunch of other states (or even TX) would be more water than the even the Mississippi could afford to lose. it would have to be more than a 6in wide pipe to be cost effective and worth it...which then comes back to can the Mississippi handle that much loss
Katia = FISH so please NEXT! :-)
2548. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL
------------------
Anyways, 95L Models:


4/5 of those models are risky for us. Got to keep a close eye on 95L.
2549. P451
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Nice shot. If she could somehow thicken her eyewall all the way around she may intensify quite a bit more.

2550. ncstorm
Quoting P451:


It's no longer a potential threat to certain regions that shall remain unnamed.

Therefore interest is near zero now. It could ramp up to 200mph and hardly anyone would care.

Focus is elsewhere on storms that do not yet exist.



I'm still watching it..does anyone know when the NHC will be flying into Katia and getting REAL data to feed into the models?
Quoting Dragod66:
Is the sharp re-curve for sure going to happen?


Nothing's ever for sure. It's a good idea to keep watching Katia. But don't panic, the UKMET finally coming into agreement is good news.
2552. ncstorm
just to remind everyone, if Katia turns to the WNW today per the Euro, all bets are still on for SE threat..from Bryan Norcross last night

Feeling pretty good that the worst of Katia will pass well offshore of the East Coast...though it will generate dangerous surf at the coast. HOWEVER, the normally reliable European computer model turns the storm toward the WNW tomorrow and brings it reasonably close to NC, the other reliable models keep it farther offshore... so let's be sure it doesn't make that shift toward the coast tomorrow before we quit paying attention. Otherwise Lee's rain spreads north.
...and this Geometry comment is three days early, but: the turn is likely to appear to be coming late, because the NHC line is a line, and the actual path will be a big arc.
2554. Martuch
ok .... let's talk about Pre Maria
Quoting dan77539:


Nothing's ever for sure. It's a good idea to keep watching Katia. But don't panic, the UKMET finally coming into agreement is good news.


Yeah the euro and the canadian seem to want to rebel a little from the model consensus.
2556. aquak9
Quoting aquak9:
Here's a link for the RedCross Safe and Well Registration. You can list yourself, or search for people.

Link

This link is the incidents page for Austin and Travis counties. Link

And this is Austin's Homeland Security Page which includes road closures and power outages, ya gotta scroll down a little, it's on the right side of the page.

Link
Ok. It looks like Lee is part of a front now. If it goes across Florida and he reforms by breaking off of the front, how will this affect Katia?
2558. SykKid
Quoting Martuch:
ok .... let's talk about Pre Maria


models dont even do anything with 95L

it not have much potential imo
Katia's expected to stay several hundred miles offshore. Unless there's a major model shift to the West, the U.S. looks out of the woods.
Quoting Martuch:
ok .... let's talk about Pre Maria


Were you thinking of 95L, or the disturbance forecast to form in the BOC late this week?
Pre-Maria looks better than Lee ever did.
Quoting dan77539:


Were you thinking of 95L, or the disturbance forecast to form in the BOC late this week?
\



95L has a seriously big head start.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Katia's expected to stay several hundred miles offshore. Unless there's a major model shift to the West, the U.S. looks out of the woods.


...as long as the surfers stay out of the dangerous rip currents.
2565. P451
Quoting JLPR2:


Those are lies! XD LOL!

Also...
95L off to a good start.

05/1200 UTC 9.5N 29.6W T1.5/1.5 95L


50% stronger than TD13 which had a 1.0/1.0 (lol)

2566. P451
Quoting dan77539:


...as long as the surfers stay out of the dangerous rip currents.


They won't. There will be rescues up and down the shoreline today. Hopefully no recoveries just rescues.
Quoting dan77539:


...as long as the surfers stay out of the dangerous rip currents.


Fat chance of that happening..
RE: 2561

How many ID's do you have?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I believe in a free market, until it comes down to the basics for life. Should a free market control water then it will be shipped to the highest bidder and not necessarily to who needs it the most for life. You will find communities that are going through droughts competing against a paper mill, for example, that wants to expand its facility. That would unnecessarily drive up the costs or deny water for those most in need of the water. When a government entity owns the water then they will take care of the needs of their community and without a bidding war taking place. ..... Just my opinion.
You bring up a valid point. But a lot of people buying a little bit of water might add up to a lot more water purchasing power than one single business buying a lot of water.

If water did began getting too expensive then it would open up opportunities for other entrepreneurs to gain entry to the water business. For example, more people would likely start drilling wells. I know wells are expensive now, but again it is a supply and demand issue. As more and more drilling companies spring up and began competing with each other than the price of drilling a well will start coming down. As more and more people began supplying their own water then the privately owned water companies now have a decision to make. We need to start reducing our prices or we are going to keep losing more and more customers.

Sorry folks, didn't mean to get away from the weather.
Quoting P451:


They won't. There will be rescues up and down the shoreline today. Hopefully no recoveries just rescues.


We had a young man body boarding pulled out in a rip off of Galveston the other day.. unfortunately he drowned.
2571. P451
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Our hideous Ex-Lee...


In the end Afternoon Thundershower Lee never required more than a flood and tornado watch.

Quoting twincomanche:
Oh shut up with that silly kind of rant.


+100 on that......
Quoting P451:


They won't. There will be rescues up and down the shoreline today. Hopefully no recoveries just rescues.



It's not the surfers that need rescuing. It's the body surfers and swimers who arn't used to the big waves.
2575. Vero1
Day 6


Day 7
2576. A4Guy
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Katia's expected to stay several hundred miles offshore. Unless there's a major model shift to the West, the U.S. looks out of the woods.


but she's off her forecast point to the south and west. do you think she is pumping the ridge.

ARRRGGHHH!

: )
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



It's not the surfers that need rescuing. It's the body surfers and swimers who arn't used to the big waves.


Point taken--didn't mean to demean the surfers.
Quoting dan77539:


...as long as the surfers stay out of the dangerous rip currents.


This has been a banner season for the surfers. Being a surfer myself, I understand the risks. You really need to know what you're doing and understand the currents, etc.
The problem usually comes from the less experience surfers.

The rip can be your friend if know what you're doing. When it gets real big, using the rip to help you get out can be helpful. But inexperienced surfers/swimmers can quickly get themseleves in trouble.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


This has been a banner season for the surfers. Being a surfer myself, I understand the risks. You really need to know what you're doing and understand the currents, etc.
The problem usually comes from the less experience surfers.

The rip can be your friend if know what you're doing. When it gets real big, using the rip to help you get out can be helpful. But inexperienced surfers/swimmers can quickly get themseleves in trouble.


yeah.. I agree.. I'm a long board surfer from ..mm.. a few decades ago.. It's the inexperience ones and the tourists.
Quoting Pirate999:


We had a young man body boarding pulled out in a rip off of Galveston the other day.. unfortunately he drowned.


My boss has surfed all over the world and he was in Port A (TX), leash brok on his board and he was caught in it--luckily he didn't panic and made his way in, but he said the rip was very very strong.
We'll have a major hurricane next advisory:
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 5.8
2582. P451
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
TWC says depression LIKELY out of 95L


There's no reason to think otherwise. It will become a hurricane.

This is the dangerous one that long range models tried to send south of Katia and into the Caribbean.

I apologize for abruptely leaving a huge tree fell onthe power line everything was out phone and all. they just got it back up
It is likely that Katia is going out to sea, but you can't say that it won't hit land at all. The chance of it hitting land is very slim, but it's still existent.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


This has been a banner season for the surfers. Being a surfer myself, I understand the risks. You really need to know what you're doing and understand the currents, etc.
The problem usually comes from the less experience surfers.

The rip can be your friend if know what you're doing. When it gets real big, using the rip to help you get out can be helpful. But inexperienced surfers/swimmers can quickly get themseleves in trouble.


I think the problem is the inexperienced surfers/swimmers will never become experienced unless they go out and learn. Unfortunately, some don't pass the class. The bad part is it puts rescuers into danger as well. It's the way of life and it is what it is. It's like hikers who go up the mountain and aren't prepared or skilled to cope with what they might encounter.
2586. aimetti
so many professionals on this blog
Quoting SykKid:
katia a fish and models not developing 95L...seems like hurricane seasons peak will be very quiet :o

Only because the models say so doesn't mean it's gonna happen.
2588. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll have a major hurricane next advisory:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.0mb/102.0kt


Impressive. She's finally closing off her core. Will it persist?




Just a little bit more to go with that east side now - a little slice of weakness still rotates in.
2589. Martuch
Quoting dan77539:


Were you thinking of 95L, or the disturbance forecast to form in the BOC late this week?


Conditions are excellent No sahara dust , Warm waters ,no traffic to the antilles;)
Quoting P451:


There's no reason to think otherwise. It will become a hurricane.

This is the dangerous one that long range models tried to send south of Katia and into the Caribbean.



I think your right.. the ones that are more south are the ones that worry me for the islands as well as the GOM. 95 will be one to watch closely.
20% time to laugh
Quoting HCW:


You just won the Darwin award for the day please contact Orcasystems for your prize


Nothing rates a Darwin award today ... so far..

Granted... a few posts would make you question the depth of the gene pool... but that's a common occurrence on here.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



It's not the surfers that need rescuing. It's the body surfers and swimers who arn't used to the big waves.
The person who drowned in Galveston was from Lubbock. I don't know how often he has been to a beach, but it did say in the local paper that the beach patrol didn't think is was rip current related. Also, he was on a boogie board and not a surf board.
More times than not it's the surfers doing the rescuing.


wow katia exploded while i was gone
Quoting P451:


Impressive. She's finally closing off her core. Will it persist?




Just a little bit more to go with that east side now - a little slice of weakness still rotates in.


i think shes well on her way to attaining cat 4, probably by 5 pm update.
Very interesting to note that if the the remnants of Lee does not move out soon, Katia will be drawn more to the west, potentially threatening the CONUS per the 12Z EURO from yesterday. Katias further movement all depends on what X-Lee does over the next few days. It's like a pinball ball game. two balls get too close and then bounce off. Katia should do a sharp recurvature after she gets very close to the remnants of Lee. The question in when.. Most models in agreement that Lee will move rather quickly out and help recurve Katia much sooner. Although Lees history shows otherwise, with slow progression. We'll see.
Quoting P451:


Impressive. She's finally closing off her core. Will it persist?




Just a little bit more to go with that east side now - a little slice of weakness still rotates in.


I think she will surpass 100 knots, maybe up to 110-115 knots or so?
2599. Walshy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think she will surpass 100 knots, maybe up to 110-115 knots or so?


looks like a strong 3 the out flow could be better but it still looks real good
You know it's crazy when the SAB ADT is going bezerk

2011SEP05 144500 6.0 948.0/ -0.0 /115.0 5.8 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
The person who drowned in Galveston was from Lubbock. I don't know how often he has been to a beach, but it did say in the local paper that the beach patrol didn't think is was rip current related.


Lubbock.. that's sad.. I'm sure he had zero experience with a beach and those conditions. A friend's son was there that day.. he said the rips were very strong.
Am I imagining that Katia's eye is getting smaller? It is definitely less irregularly-shaped. That would back up the increased winds that we're seeing in the estimates.
2604. SykKid
why models not develop 95L but everybody think it will develop
what is the ace up to???
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1035 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
WESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1031 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
ATMORE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF I65 AND CR 1...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCULLOUGH... I65 AND CR 1... I65 AND AL 21...
I65 AND AL 113... ATMORE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 71.
1928 Okeechobee Hurricane
Revised Track from ReAnalysis Project (link)


Since I couldn't find anything online, and the Hurricane History link on the NHC home page which takes you to the Historical Hurricane Tracks map is jammed-packed with errors and misinformation, I once again made my own using the old Microsoft Streets & Trips program.

The concentric circles (using WU's Cat. colors) should in no way be considered accurate, and mainly designate 10-mile increments. If anyone has any information on the eye size or windfield for this storm I'd love to see it.

Just have one quick question to verify the time on the map. 00z on September 17th, 1928 would be 7pm on the East Coast during that period, right?

If anyone knows for sure, I'd be gratefull if you could drop me an email. TIA
Quoting Darren23:
You know it's crazy when the SAB ADT is going bezerk

2011SEP05 144500 6.0 948.0/ -0.0 /115.0 5.8 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT

6666 NO LIMIT
LOL
Quoting Pirate999:


Lubbock.. that's sad.. I'm sure he had zero experience with a beach and those conditions. A friend's son was there that day.. he said the rips were very strong.
Darwin at work.
Didn't Katia go through an eye wall replacement last night? I think I saw that somewhere this morning.


katia must be crying cuz theres something in her eye
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Didn't Katia go through an eye wall replacement last night? I think I saw that somewhere this morning.

The NHC Discussion said something about it.
Did I ever say Katia was gonna hit the USA? Really? Get a life.
Raw T # is up too 6.0


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 24:25:07 N Lon : 63:05:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.0mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.0 6.0
2616. P451
Quoting ncstorm:


I'm still watching it..does anyone know when the NHC will be flying into Katia and getting REAL data to feed into the models?


All I can find is a mission for Tuesday:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/17Z
B. AFXXX 0112A KATIA
C. 06/1415Z
D. 27.5N 66.5W
E. 06/1615Z-06/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL 07/17Z FIX
3. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSIONS
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/11Z AND 07/11Z.







Quoting Tazmanian:
Raw T # is up too 6.0


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 24:25:07 N Lon : 63:05:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.0mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.0 6.0


and thaat means???
Quoting weatherh98:
what is the ace up to???
43.6
The models change everyday with Katia,what makes everyone believe them so much now?
lets think guys. we had moderate shear 10 to 15 knots on katia AND some dry air. i dont see her getting pass a weak cat 4 135mph but most likely i 120 to 125mph strong cat 3 is likely
Quoting P451:


All I can find is a mission for Tuesday:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/17Z
B. AFXXX 0112A KATIA
C. 06/1415Z
D. 27.5N 66.5W
E. 06/1615Z-06/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL 07/17Z FIX
3. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSIONS
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/11Z AND 07/11Z.









Looks like we will have better model data by Wednesday morning.
Quoting reedzone:
Did I ever say Katia was gonna hit the USA? Really? Get a life.


Ignore, Reed. Think of a five letter word.
2623. P451
Quoting reedzone:
Did I ever say Katia was gonna hit the USA? Really? Get a life.


No.

But did you ever say she WOULDNT?


lol.
Quoting twincomanche:
Darwin at work.
Pretty cruel statement, don't you think. So everyone who dies in an accident is a candidate for a Darwin award. I would attribute it to bad judgment more than stupidity.

I modified my quote earlier but I don't know if it showed up, but the Galveston Beach Patrol said the drowning was not related to rip currents.
Katia is really ricking it now... not surprised to see her as cat 3 soon and a 4 later.
NHC could issue a special update on this at any time, you never know

2626. Gearsts
Quoting reedzone:
Very interesting to note that if the the remnants of Lee does not move out soon, Katia will be drawn more to the west, potentially threatening the CONUS per the 12Z EURO from yesterday. Katias further movement all depends on what X-Lee does over the next few days. It's like a pinball ball game. two balls get too close and then bounce off. Katia should do a sharp recurvature after she gets very close to the remnants of Lee. The question in when.. Most models in agreement that Lee will move rather quickly out and help recurve Katia much sooner. Although Lees history shows otherwise, with slow progression. We'll see.
Katia is stronger she will most likely go out to sea and not get too close to the East cost.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Pretty cruel statement, don't you think. So everyone who dies in an accident is a candidate for a Darwin award. I would attribute it to bad judgment more than stupidity.

I modified my quote earlier but I don't know if it showed up, but the Galveston Beach Patrol said the drowning was not related to rip currents.
I guess I am just a mean person.Not.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
43.6




no you did not even no i this look at it now up too


Total: 47.0
2629. ncstorm
Quoting P451:


All I can find is a mission for Tuesday:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/17Z
B. AFXXX 0112A KATIA
C. 06/1415Z
D. 27.5N 66.5W
E. 06/1615Z-06/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL 07/17Z FIX
3. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSIONS
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/11Z AND 07/11Z.









thanks P451..
2630. SykKid
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
lets think guys. we had moderate shear 10 to 15 knots on katia AND some dry air. i dont see her getting pass a weak cat 4 135mph but most likely i 120 to 125mph strong cat 3 is likely


LOL, look at the thing.....Hell I wouldnt be surprised if it were 130mph right now
IMO, we could see a special advisory soon on Katia if the satellite appearance continues to improve, maybe to 120 mph.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



REED GIVE IT UP KATIA IS GOING OUT TO SEA AND THATS THE BOTTOM LINE...QUIT GIVING THESE PEOPLE FALSE HOPES...IF YOU THINK KATIA IS GOING TO HIT THE EAST COAST YOU ARE SHOWING YOUR IGNORANCE...


Come on Cloud, he really never said she would actually hit the US. These storms this year have been very difficult to forecast it seems. "If" Lee doesn't move out then yes, Katia will move closer to the East Coast but more than likely will not be a direct hit. Another thing to consider is how big (size wise) Katia gets. I have always heard that the bigger the storm the harder it is for them to make such a sharp curve.
2633. P451
Quoting SykKid:
why models not develop 95L but everybody think it will develop


Because it has an incredible satellite presentation with a wonderful spin to it. It is in low shear and high moisture environment. It's a climatological favorable region.

It's almost a depression.

It "looks" like a tropical storm already.

twincomanche, maybe I took it the wrong way. Sorry.
2635. Walshy
BOSTON -- A lobsterman said he made a rare find off the coast of Gloucester when he captured a yellow lobster.

According to Good Morning Gloucester, the crustacean was caught Wednesday by Dave Jewel aboard the Lady J.

Because the female lobster was bearing eggs, she was tossed back into the sea.

Yellow lobsters are the result of a rare genetic mutation. The odds of finding one are 1 in 30 million.

Read more: http://www.thebostonchannel.com/news/29077184/deta il.html#ixzz1X5rFxXer


Quoting P451:


No.

But did you ever say she WOULDNT?


lol.


Just pointing out the possibilities..
Quoting Gearsts:
Katia is stronger she will most likely go out to sea.



not really this be comee it is stronger dos not mean it will go out too sea IKE was strong and it was forcast too go out too sea but it went too TX so its all about timeing and timeing has too be this right
Wow,
Katia GOING NUTS!!!
That's one of the largest eyes ive seen in a hurricane, she almost resembles Isabel... Probably will find herself as a Category 4 This PM, or Tonight. Category 5 can't be ruled out, but in my opinion Unlikely.

I also see 95L has been initiated, Could see maria and Nate in the coming week...
Quoting P451:


Because it has an incredible satellite presentation with a wonderful spin to it. It is in low shear and high moisture environment. It's a climatological favorable region.

It's almost a depression.

It "looks" like a tropical storm already.

agreed sometimes models dont even develop an invest yet it develops anyways. and the ecmwf 0z run develops 95L IN THE CARRIBEAN.
Quoting P451:


There's no reason to think otherwise. It will become a hurricane.

This is the dangerous one that long range models tried to send south of Katia and into the Caribbean.


What I want to know is...
Is it going to the southern Caribbean and then turn to the Yucatan or Texas or something?
Is it going to Puerto Rico->Dominican Republic->Cuba->Dissipated
or will it go Antilles->Bahamas->Miami->Gulf Of Mexico/Antilles->Bahamas->Miami->Florida->Dissipat ed/Antilles->Bahamas->Florida/Antilles->Out to sea?

There is a very wide range 10-15 day cone right now and I wanna know where it's gonna go so I can wishcast a track that leads to my area.
Quoting reedzone:
Very interesting to note that if the the remnants of Lee does not move out soon, Katia will be drawn more to the west, potentially threatening the CONUS per the 12Z EURO from yesterday. Katias further movement all depends on what X-Lee does over the next few days. It's like a pinball ball game. two balls get too close and then bounce off. Katia should do a sharp recurvature after she gets very close to the remnants of Lee. The question in when.. Most models in agreement that Lee will move rather quickly out and help recurve Katia much sooner. Although Lees history shows otherwise, with slow progression. We'll see.


I don't know, the trough has already progressed into the northeast, its possible if Lee's remnants don't move out as fast that Katia might get closer to NC, but I highly doubt it will get close enough to be threat even under that circumstance considering the cold front is already across Virginia and western NC.

Anyways, what I'm most interested in right now is that models are wanting to develop a system off the front that is merging with Lee once the front stalls in the gulf. It started with just the GFS, but other models are hinting at this now too, so far the panhandle of Florida or the West Coast of Florida seems to be where it might go. I can't imagine a system forming on a stalled front getting very strong though, and the chances of it being a hybrid low are possible too with drier cooler air existing northwest of the front.

2642. SykKid
Quoting P451:


Because it has an incredible satellite presentation with a wonderful spin to it. It is in low shear and high moisture environment. It's a climatological favorable region.

It's almost a depression.

It "looks" like a tropical storm already.



if conditions are as amazing as you make it sound then why are the models not picking up on it?

i think if it developes it will be short lived TS at best.


Wow ... looks way better...
Thanks for the info reed. I appreciate your opinion.
Katia really putting on a SHOW!!!
6.6 RAW T# is around a Strong Category 3/Weak Category 4
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Wow,
Katia GOING NUTS!!!
That's one of the largest eyes ive seen in a hurricane, she almost resembles Isabel... Probably will find herself as a Category 4 This PM, or Tonight. Category 5 can't be ruled out, but in my opinion Unlikely.

I also see 95L has been initiated, Could see maria and Nate in the coming week...


A large eye can mean lower wind speed for the same central pressure--it's all about angular momentum.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Katia really putting on a SHOW!!!
6.6 RAW T# is around a Strong Category 3/Weak Category 4



last i look it was 6.0
2648. DFWjc
Quoting CaribBoy:
Katia = FISH so please NEXT! :-)


Okay, what's your evidence? What model(s) are you going with, or is this your prediction?
2649. P451
Quoting overwash12:
The models change everyday with Katia,what makes everyone believe them so much now?


She's in a solid steering flow with apparently nowhere to go but north nearly centered between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda followed by a continued curve North East out to sea.



Quoting weatherh98:


and thaat means???
5.5 to 6.0 is 100 knots to 115 knots OR 115 mph to 135 mph.
2652. SykKid
Quoting DFWjc:


Okay, what's your evidence? What model(s) are you going with, or is this your prediction?


all model have it out to sea.
2653. divdog
Quoting cloudburst2011:



I WOULD AGREE BUT THEY HAVE THIS DEEPENING TROF THAT WILL BE AROUND WHEN KATIA IS AT 75W AND THIS IS GOING TO TURN IT AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST...THE ONLY THING THE EAST COAST WILL HAVE IS SOME DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...I AM NOT BASING IT WHAT THE COMPUTERS SAY..AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED THE COMPUTERS ARE GARBAGE...
The computers resemble your forecasts in a lotta ways ... garbage.
Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.

260
WTNT42 KNHC 051447
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

KATIA APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND NOW
HAS A 30 N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO
T5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE AT T5.5.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING RAISED TO 95 KT.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT...BUT THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS
310/11 KT. KATIA IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND TOWARDS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS. ALTHOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SHARP RE-CURVATURE BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIVERGENCE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH GREATER-THAN-NORMAL SPREAD
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR THIS CYCLE...THE GUIDANCE IS BOUNDED BY THE
SLOWER-MOVING ECMWF AND UKMET...AND THE FASTER-MOVING GFS. IF
TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE TODAY...I WOULD EXPECT
THE 12Z GUIDANCE TO SHOW LESS SPREAD AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS BEING SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
It seems that when hurricanes do form this year they go right to major.We're averaging one storm every week now.
2657. Gearsts
Quoting cloudburst2011:



I WOULD AGREE BUT THEY HAVE THIS DEEPENING TROF THAT WILL BE AROUND WHEN KATIA IS AT 75W AND THIS IS GOING TO TURN IT AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST...THE ONLY THING THE EAST COAST WILL HAVE IS SOME DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...I AM NOT BASING IT WHAT THE COMPUTERS SAY..AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED THE COMPUTERS ARE GARBAGE...
Why all caps? Please why?
12z GFS at 42hrs.Link
Based on NHC 11am forecast path, Katia will remain hundreds of miles offshore.





NHC: There a 10% chance for Katia to strengthen to a cat 4 down the road


but... Katia is closing off it's inner core meaning RI is possible


There is some dry air sitting in her path though
div, stop talking to the troll.
2662. DFWjc
Quoting SykKid:


all model have it out to sea.


I know, just wanted to protect him from being called a troll. "IMO" works really well if you attach it to a blunt statement like that... IMO LOL
Quoting DFWjc:


I know, just wanted to protect him from being called a troll. "IMO" works really well if you attach it to a blunt statement like that... IMO LOL



plzs dont Quote him
2664. divdog
Quoting twincomanche:
div, stop talking to the troll.
sorry .. should have resisted.. you r right ..
2665. Bielle
All of a sudden, my Refresh takes me to post 2651 as the top of the page. Usually, the top remains an even-numbered 200 or 400 06 600 series, so I would have expected 2600. Anyone else have this change?
Quoting Walshy:
BOSTON -- A lobsterman said he made a rare find off the coast of Gloucester when he captured a yellow lobster.

According to Good Morning Gloucester, the crustacean was caught Wednesday by Dave Jewel aboard the Lady J.

Because the female lobster was bearing eggs, she was tossed back into the sea.

Yellow lobsters are the result of a rare genetic mutation. The odds of finding one are 1 in 30 million.

Read more: http://www.thebostonchannel.com/news/29077184/deta il.html#ixzz1X5rFxXer




That's about the size of Dustin Pedroia!
Quoting cloudburst2011:


WELL REED ANYONE CAN FIGURE THAT OUT...GEE MAN TAKE A REST YOU WILL HAVE A NICE LULL...I THINK YOU NEED THE BREAK..


Guys just ignore this chump, he obviously has no life and is seeking negative attention.
Quoting Tazmanian:



plzs dont Quote him


Yeah, don't quote him because "I" have him on ignore.

LOL, doesn't work that way Taz. ;)
Quoting Gearsts:
Why all caps? Please why?
well sorry but when you talk to reed you have to scream so he wll get the point...talking to reed is like talking to a brick wall...again sorry for the caps...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, don't quote him because "I" have him on ignore.

LOL, doesn't work that way Taz. ;)



so i noted lol
easily to see the eye...




and I will say there is some annular-like features in her eye...
2672. Patrap
..cable restored here, and Lee can kiss my Grits
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, don't quote him because "I" have him on ignore.

LOL, doesn't work that way Taz. ;)


I have had cloudburst on ignore for months, he's an idiot. He's just stormkat, and I'm not sure why the admins haven't picked him up yet.
Quoting Bielle:
All of a sudden, my Refresh takes me to post 2651 as the top of the page. Usually, the top remains an even-numbered 200 or 400 06 600 series, so I would have expected 2600. Anyone else have this change?
My new pages have always started out with a 1 or 51 number as long as I can remember. Been on here since 2005
Sorry guys, didn't know he was a troll. I believe all the models are forecasting a direct hit on the Ignore button.
Quoting Bielle:
All of a sudden, my Refresh takes me to post 2651 as the top of the page. Usually, the top remains an even-numbered 200 or 400 06 600 series, so I would have expected 2600. Anyone else have this change?
Mine has always been that way. There's a thingy that gives you choices about how many messages you want to see at one time.
stop quoting cloudburst2011... he's a troll and I got him on ignored.
2672 -

Yeah!!! Nice to see you again, Pat. Been holding good thoughts - hope all is well, if a bit damp. :)
2679. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:



plzs dont Quote him


Sorry, Taz, just got here, i missed which one, thank you for the update, added to the block list, thanks!
what would be nic if they re move the Quote from this blog
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I have had cloudburst on ignore for months, he's an idiot. He's just stormkat, and I'm not sure why the admins haven't picked him up yet.


He's not that bad, he actually contributes some. However...does get carried away sometimes, like now.
For those of you who are bickering with one another today. Lets keep it civil please.

Quoting Grothar:
I am a family member of Grothar. As some of you know he has not been well. He told me he has not been on here much. During the night he took took a bad turn. He asked me to just drop a message to you on here. I hope you don't mind. He talks about you people all the time and you have given him many laughs and enjoyment over the years. Those of you that know him are aware of what a remarkable and kind man he truly is. At this time we would prefer if you do not contact him. I promise that one of us will keep you informed when we can. He just asked us to tell you one thing, please do not fight with each other too much.
Bluestorm,
RAW T#'s are 6.6...
Which means a Category 4 from the latest Numbers...
2684. SykKid
Quoting Tazmanian:



plzs dont Quote him


me?
Quoting DFWjc:


Sorry, Taz, just got here, i missed which one, thank you for the update, added to the block list, thanks!



lol welcome
Final T # Adj T # Raw T #
5.5 6.0 6.0
Quoting reedzone:


Just pointing out the possibilities..


I think its the 00Z CMC which tracks Katia the furthest west, unless the UK Met still is carrying the southern track (although the UKMO 12Z Sunday integration still had Katia doing a sharp right hook off the Georgia coast). If ex-Lee stalls over the SE, things could get interesting (i.e. threatening) indeed. But even the CMC ensembles don`t realy support a US landfall. The 00Z CMC operational is really an outlier at this point.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Bluestorm,
RAW T#'s are 6.6...
Which means a Category 4 from the latest Numbers...




where are you geting this from this is what i have


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 24:25:07 N Lon : 63:05:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.0mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.0 6.0
2689. Patrap
Quoting CoopsWife:
2672 -

Yeah!!! Nice to see you again, Pat. Been holding good thoughts - hope all is well, if a bit damp. :)


Nado at 2:30 pm CDT yesterday 2 Blocks behind me just off the River, took out 3 Power Poles, sheared um off mid way,One Oak tree and pulled the service off of Domelisi's Po-Boy Shop.

I was napping of course.
Quoting scooster67:
For those of you who are bickering with one another today. Lets keep it civil please.



That's horrible! I had no idea. I hope he gets better. Prays for him and his family.
2691. ncstorm
Quoting P451:


She's in a solid steering flow with apparently nowhere to go but north nearly centered between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda followed by a continued curve North East out to sea.





yeah, but they only have buoy data fed into them..none of the atmospheric data such as the jet stream or troughs that are supposedly going to influence Katia out to sea..to pay homage to my favorite State Farm commercial..."Can I get a dropsonde?"..LOL
Upper left side at the top to change how many messages you see.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Bluestorm,
RAW T#'s are 6.6...
Which means a Category 4 from the latest Numbers...
T# is 6.0 last time I check, which is around 130 mph.
2694. divdog
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


He's not that bad, he actually contributes some. However...does get carried away sometimes, like now.
10000000000000000% disagree
Hey scooster, I'll keep him in my prayers.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Bluestorm,
RAW T#'s are 6.6...
Which means a Category 4 from the latest Numbers...


that's for now or later?
Someones trying to get me banned (I need a break) lol.. Just a hint of fact I have NEVER been banned from Wunderground. I don't attend to be banned... Why would I get banned from making observations? I think the troll needs to be banned :P
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that's for now or later?



am not sure where he geting that info from


but this is what i have


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 24:25:07 N Lon : 63:05:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.0mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.0 6.0
What about this mess left behind in the GOM....couldn't possibly try and pull off a 1-2 punch huh?
2700. xcool



i'm watch in the BOC





look at 95L
2701. Drakoen
95L is a well formed invest and has good potential to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite imagery shows cyclonically-curved bands on the equatorward side of the system wrapping into a broad area of low pressure. Water vapor imagery and MIMIC-TPW shows the invest is located with a moisture maximum over the eastern Atlantic so dry air should not be a problem. the CIMSS shear maps show the system is within a region of 10-20 knots of wind shear, marginal conditions for development. As the system moves westward upper level winds may become a bit more conducive for developement.

2702. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


He's not that bad, he actually contributes some. However...does get carried away sometimes, like now.


Contribute what? please..
2703. Bielle
Quoting twincomanche:
Mine has always been that way. There's a thingy that gives you choices about how many messages you want to see at one time.


Thank you Twincommanche. Somehow I had managed to change the "thingy" from my usual 200 down to 50. I have fixed it now.

Any word on Grothar? I couldn't even find the "get well" messages that were on his blog page last night. (I am not having a good blog day.)
2698. Taz, he got the info from the raw SAB stats posted at 2601, which has it up to a 6.6 cyclone.

Needless to say, Katia is a strengthening hurricane.
Quoting cat6band:
What about this mess left behind in the GOM....couldn't possibly try and pull off a 1-2 punch huh?


The GFS & ECMWF, the two most reliable models, are indicating this will occur. That's not to say it will be that strong.
Quoting reedzone:
Someones trying to get me banned (I need a break) lol.. Just a hint of fact I have NEVER been banned from Wunderground. I don't attend to be banned... Why would I get banned from making observations? I think the troll needs to be banned :P
Hey you keep on Reed. I personally like different views, someone who doesn't go with the status quo of the board. If anything, a devil advocate is always thought provoking. Keep it up.
Quoting cat6band:
What about this mess left behind in the GOM....couldn't possibly try and pull off a 1-2 punch huh?




very likely this could happen sometime friday as a surface low develops at the end of the front in the boc...this area should be watched closely...
2707. SykKid
Quoting scooster67:
For those of you who are bickering with one another today. Lets keep it civil please.



hi, who is he?
2704. CybrTeddy 9:03 AM PDT on September 05, 2011 +0 Hide this comment.
2698. Taz, he got the info from the raw SAB stats posted at 2601, which has it up to a 6.6 cyclone.

Needless to say, Katia is a strengthening hurricane


oh ok
2709. Patrap
I served with Grothar in Norway in 84 during TEAMWORK 84,,a NATO Exercise.

We found out we both were there by yakking here.


We wish him well.

2710. SykKid
Quoting Patrap:
I served with Grothar in Norway in 84 during TEAMWORK 84,,a NATO Exercise.

We found out we both were there by yakking here.


We wish him well.



who is he

who was it earlier this morning that toldme that bigger eye was just dry air that had made its way in? hmm, well maybe should have listened, lol. either way, we have a formadable hurricane on our hands. with the direction of the cone and intensity of the storm...this is just what i wanted!!
Take a look at the last frames... notice something annular-like or it's just me?
Quoting Gearsts:
Why all caps? Please why?




A: Troll
B: Rude
C: Idiot
D: All of the above
2714. wn1995
I have to say, 95L is an impressive invest

Link
Quoting Patrap:
I served with Grothar in Norway in 84 during TEAMWORK 84,,a NATO Exercise.

We found out we both were there by yakking here.


We wish him well.



WOW it truly is a small world!!
2716. divdog
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




A: Troll
B: Rude
C: Idiot
D: All of the above
yes
2717. auburn
Watching Naders go over the house here in Bama...Happy they aren't on the ground!
2718. DFWjc
Is the blob near the BOC part of Lee or part of a front or both? TIA
2719. Patrap
Quoting auburn:
Watching Naders go over the house here in Bama...Happy they aren't on the ground!


Watch um Aub,,one did ther nasty here yesterday afternoon.

We were very Lucky all we lost was power and cable.
12z GFS at 84hrs.Link
2721. aquak9
texas fire info- apologies in advance for being off topic

Quoting aquak9:
Here's a link for the RedCross Safe and Well Registration. You can list yourself, or search for people.

Link

This link is the incidents page for Austin and Travis counties. Link

And this is Austin's Homeland Security Page which includes road closures and power outages, ya gotta scroll down a little, it's on the right side of the page.

Link
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




A: Troll
B: Rude
C: Idiot
D: All of the above
D
2723. HCW
Quoting auburn:
Watching Naders go over the house here in Bama...Happy they aren't on the ground!

They want be as strong as Utah State was on Saturday :)
Quoting Drakoen:
95L is a well formed invest and has good potential to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite imagery shows cyclonically-curved bands on the equatorward side of the system wrapping into a broad area of low pressure. Water vapor imagery and MIMIC-TPW shows the invest is located with a moisture maximum over the eastern Atlantic so dry air should not be a problem. the CIMSS shear maps show the system is within a region of 10-20 knots of wind shear, marginal conditions for development. As the system moves westward upper level winds may become a bit more conducive for developement.





If that exact same cloudmass was sitting in the GOM it'd already have a name attached to it. JMHO
2725. DFWjc
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




A: Troll
B: Rude
C: Idiot
D: All of the above


E: ?
F: ?
G: Profit
Quoting aquak9:
texas fire info- apologies in advance for being off topic

Fires are weather related as far as I'm concerned. Public safety surly is involved.
I really don't know why 95L is at 20%. If it was me, it'd be at 50% or 60%.
2728. auburn
Quoting Patrap:


Watch um Aub,,one did ther nasty here yesterday afternoon.

We were very Lucky all we lost was power and cable.


One after another..I dont see them on the radar...
2729. HCW
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really don't know why 95L is at 20%. If it was me, it'd be at 50% or 60%.


So is that your prediction for 2pm ?
i would say that maybe if the trend continues with 95L, it could be a TD by tomorrow night
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really don't know why 95L is at 20%. If it was me, it'd be at 50% or 60%.





am with you it sould be at lest 50% may be it was still night time at the time
2732. SykKid
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really don't know why 95L is at 20%. If it was me, it'd be at 50% or 60%.


It no have model support
Quoting aquak9:
texas fire info- apologies in advance for being off topic



Not off topic, Aqua. It's the weather that is causing the fires. How's things on your side of the Gulf?
12Z GFS a tad further west, still east of the CONUS but brings at least Tropical Storm conditions to Nantucket.
7-day rainfall through 12 UTC this am:



And, now, a gusty wind from the north carrying noticeably drier air. Windows open for the first time in quite a while...
2736. HCW
Quoting auburn:


One after another..I dont see them on the radar...


And you want cause they are EF0's and EF1's and they can be gone in less than a radar scan
I do hope Grothar gets better really quick. He's truly one-of-a-kind.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Take a look at the last frames... notice something annular-like or it's just me?

Katia is very close to annular. The only thing not annular about Katia is her spiral bands.
Katia continues to get stronger. 1515 UTC update.


Quoting SykKid:


It no have model support
dont need ANY model support for development. models just KEY IN ON DEVELOPENT. satalite and buoy and hurricane hunter data tells you the info :)
2741. gugi182
Morning, y'all.

Lee is finally done here in S Cen LA....and in his place we are getting...early October weather.  Low 80's for highs?  UPPER 40's for Wednesday morning lows???

As bad as I feel for Texas still suffering from that Death Ridge, it's sure making our weather picture perfect. Not to mention, putting the block on any tropical systems making it up here for the next two to three weeks.

Still, there's late September and October left to go, and anything can happen. (See Lili, Juan, etc.)

And I almost want a system to come close to here just to knock that darn drought out of Texas. Almost, that is.


Anthony
2743. HCW
Are female named storms more likely to go annular than male ones ?
2744. auburn
Quoting HCW:


And you want cause they are EF0's and EF1's and they can be gone in less than a radar scan


Thanks for that info!
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
dont need ANY model support for development. models just KEY IN ON DEVELOPENT. satalite and buoy and hurricane hunter data tells you the info :)




grrrr plzs dont Quote him


but hey evere one going too do it any way lol so why do i even try lol


any way the Quote needs too be re move
2748. divdog
Quoting HCW:
Are female named storms more likely to go annular than male ones ?
more likely to change their minds !! LOL
Quoting SPLbeater:
i would say that maybe if the trend continues with 95L, it could be a TD by tomorrow night


They'll definitely go Code Orange, but probably not 50%. 30% or 40% seems likely.
2750. SykKid
Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS a tad further west, still east of the CONUS but brings at least Tropical Storm conditions to Nantucket.


please give it up...it going out to sea
Quoting caneswatch:
I do hope Grothar gets better really quick. He's truly one-of-a-kind.


I hope so too, we've known him for years. I think it would be prudent to leave him a message on his blog :)
Quoting aquak9:
texas fire info- apologies in advance for being off topic



Thanks, I have family in Steiner Ranch, the subdivision that had to be evacuated in Austin. I know they were able to make it out okay but I will relay this information on to them. Thanks
+ 10000
2754. HCW
Hope Gro is O-Kay.
seem like too be a low froming in the gulf but it need too get re move from the cold front 1st
Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS a tad further west, still east of the CONUS but brings at least Tropical Storm conditions to Nantucket.
Absolutely correct.
Quoting DFWjc:
Is the blob near the BOC part of Lee or part of a front or both? TIA


Its a combination of both. Lee's circulation has pulled the frontal boundry deep into the GOM. There are north winds in the western GOM and southerly winds on the eastern GOM.
This area will need to be watched for development.
yes, by looking at her eye, katia is annular
Quoting HCW:
Are female named storms more likely to go annular than male ones ?


NO. The names are just alternated female/male/female to be politically correct. At storm is a storm is a storm..annular or not.
Quoting SykKid:


hi, who is he?

He is probably the most beloved blogger on this blog. Stay around a while and you will see.
2762. DFWjc
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Its a combination of both. Lee's circulation has pulled the frontal boundry deep into the GOM. There is north winds in the western GOM and southly winds on the eastern GOM.
This area will need to be watched for development.


Thanks!
Quoting Tazmanian:
seem like too be a low froming in the gulf but it need too get re move from the cold front 1st



no taz the low will not form until friday and it will be on the end of the cold front thats moving through here now...this will be in the BOC...this needs to be watched closely for the the nothern gulfcoast once again...
raw T # up too 6.1


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 24:28:51 N Lon : 63:10:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 956.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.1 6.1
Quoting Patrap:
I served with Grothar in Norway in 84 during TEAMWORK 84,,a NATO Exercise.

We found out we both were there by yakking here.


We wish him well.

I didn't know y'all were so close. If you hear anything keep us posted.
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
Morning, y'all.

Lee is finally done here in S Cen LA....and in his place we are getting...early October weather.  Low 80's for highs?  UPPER 40's for Wednesday morning lows???

As bad as I feel for Texas still suffering from that Death Ridge, it's sure making our weather picture perfect. Not to mention, putting the block on any tropical systems making it up here for the next two to three weeks.

Still, there's late September and October left to go, and anything can happen. (See Lili, Juan, etc.)

And I almost want a system to come close to here just to knock that darn drought out of Texas. Almost, that is.


Anthony
Umm, I don't think anyone in LA is getting below upper 50s F this week.

And while we still have to watch the tropics, certainly, one big advantage of a stout cold front such as this, is all of the dry air and shear dumped in the gulf.

Doubtful that the GoM moistens enough to host a Katrina, Rita, etc. type intensity this fall. (Caveat: Depending on how far into the GoM this dry air goes.)


Quoting cloudburst2011:




very likely this could happen sometime friday as a surface low develops at the end of the front in the boc...this area should be watched closely...

Not quite a 1-2, because the target area will be further east of where Lee hit. Looking more like a FL Panhandle/Big Bend hit.

And more than likely, as a moderate- to weak TS or even hybrid storm due to all that dry air to its west.


Anthony
2768. HCW
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


NO. The names are just alternated female/male/female to be politically correct. At storm is a storm is a storm..annular or not.


That was my attempt at a little humor this morning :)
Is there any info in the "possible" system in the Gulf down around the BOC? We are still burning up here in TX and the winds are still causing widespread problems.. we could sure use a "system" down here.
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is there any info in the "possible" system in the Gulf down around the BOC? We are still burning up here in TX and the winds are still causing widespread problems.. we could sure use a "system" down here.


If anything develops, it will head farther east than Lee did. Would be of no help to Texas, unfortunately.
Quoting aimetti:


dude you are very annoying



it will all so help the blog out if you dont : Quote him
This is definitely a Category 3 hurricane...Probably 120 mph or so. Raw and Adjusted T #'s up to 6.1

2774. DFWjc
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is there any info in the "possible" system in the Gulf down around the BOC? We are still burning up here in TX and the winds are still causing widespread problems.. we could sure use a "system" down here.


How's it going down there in Houston? It's a nice 75F up here in DFW...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is definitely a Category 3 hurricane...Probably 120 mph or so. Raw and Adjusted T #'s up to 6.1




yup 2nd cat 3 of the year but the nhc may even go a little higher
12 GFS is only 100-125 miles of NC vs the 06 which was almost 250
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Not quite a 1-2, because the target area will be further east of where Lee hit. Looking more like a FL Panhandle/Big Bend hit.

And more than likely, as a moderate- to weak TS or even hybrid storm due to all that dry air to its west.


Anthony



Yeah, and the GFSwunderground has a low starting to develop as early as tomorrow in the BOC.
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is there any info in the "possible" system in the Gulf down around the BOC? We are still burning up here in TX and the winds are still causing widespread problems.. we could sure use a "system" down here.



dont lose hope its supposed to develop friday and could be a tropical depression as early as sat...texas is sure not out the woods yet that high will not be over yuo guys at that time and it leaves you open for a possible strike...ssts are still 90 degrees down in the BOC..
MAJOR
012L/MH/K/C3
MARK
24.23N/63.33W
Quoting thewindman:
12 GFS is only 100-125 miles of NC vs the 06 which was almost 250



thatis cuting it a little too close
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
Morning, y'all.

Lee is finally done here in S Cen LA....and in his place we are getting...early October weather. Low 80's for highs? UPPER 40's for Wednesday morning lows???

As bad as I feel for Texas still suffering from that Death Ridge, it's sure making our weather picture perfect. Not to mention, putting the block on any tropical systems making it up here for the next two to three weeks.

Still, there's late September and October left to go, and anything can happen. (See Lili, Juan, etc.)

And I almost want a system to come close to here just to knock that darn drought out of Texas. Almost, that is.


Anthony




Anthony dear, The Texas "Death Ridge" has new meaning today... Whie the drought is horrendous, people are dying in wild fires here in TX. While I am glad you have wonderful fall like temps and have had a nice rain, those of us in the Lone Star state are in a dire race against wildfires.

So keep your fingers crossed for us and if ya happen to see a little tropical storm anywhere, send it our way...thanks :o)
My thinking...Nobody said it had to be neat, lol.



(Click to enlarge)
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Is there any info in the "possible" system in the Gulf down around the BOC? We are still burning up here in TX and the winds are still causing widespread problems.. we could sure use a "system" down here.


Agree..but the models have it toward FL panhandle.. No relief for us yet. The GFS is showing something much later and lower in the Caribbean that could be threatening. I want rain but then again I also don't want a cat3+. Trade-offs, right..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
MAJOR
012L/MH/L/C3
MARK
24.23N/63.33W


WOW!! Katia has her eye wide open now. She needs to hurry and turn that eye away from the east coast..lol
Only 1% of Atl. hurricanes reach annular status. That is according to wikipedia. If Katia truly does reach this status,I guess we will see how she follows the models!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My thinking...Nobody said it had to be neat, lol.



(Click to enlarge)



i 95L could be a vary strong storm
Looking at the visible loop of 95L, it seems primed for development.
Quoting Tazmanian:
raw T # up too 6.1


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 24:28:51 N Lon : 63:10:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 956.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.1 6.1
is 6.1 120mph?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


If anything develops, it will head farther east than Lee did. Would be of no help to Texas, unfortunately.



How much farther east in your opinion?
2791. DFWjc
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
MAJOR
012L/MH/K/C3
MARK
24.23N/63.33W


KOG - could you tell me what this means? i've been meaning to ask..TIA
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
is 6.1 120mph?



nop i looked it up

6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My thinking...Nobody said it had to be neat, lol.



(Click to enlarge)


Ugly but probably accurate..
2794. ncstorm
6Z GFS


12Z GFS
Quoting fldude99:



How much farther east in your opinion?


Florida.
2796. Patrap
Entergy Crews getting to work Post Nado yesterday ,Uptown NOLA off Magazine Street.

2797. Walshy
Quoting ncstorm:
6Z GFS


12Z GFS



that is way way too close
T#'s from SAB have continued to rise.

2011SEP05 154500 6.1 945.3/ -0.1 /117.4 6.1 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF

UW-CIMMS ADT still has it slightly weaker, but still a major. IMO, Katia is a 105-110 kt Major hurricane.
Quoting Pirate999:


Agree..but the models have it toward FL panhandle.. No relief for us yet. The GFS is showing something much later and lower in the Caribbean that could be threatening. I want rain but then again I also don't want a cat3 . Trade-offs, right..


We were talking about just that late last night...While I would hate to see damage to anyone beach home, business or the like, something has to give here. These fires are out of control and people are dying and losing everything.. over 300 homes destroyed just in the Bastrop fire, 2 known killed so far ( 20 yr old mother and her 18 month old daughter)

I have been through some Major "Canes" and I hate to say this, but right now, I would take anything I can get right how and deal with the ramifications if it will help extinguish all those fires....But that is just me.
Quoting Tazmanian:



nop i looked it up

6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS
wait im confused lol is katia a 115mph hurricane or stronger?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
wait im confused lol is katia a 115mph hurricane or stronger?


Probably stronger.
2803. Walshy
still getting some nice breezes down on the coast

Pensacola NAS, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 26 min 12 sec ago

82 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 30 mph from the South

Wind Gust: 45 mph
Pressure: 29.55 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 91 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: .90 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2300 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2800 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Quoting overwash12:
Only 1% of Atl. hurricanes reach annular status. That is according to wikipedia. If Katia truly does reach this status,I guess we will see how she follows the models!


if a hurricane is annular then how does that affect the track? TIA
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
wait im confused lol is katia a 115mph hurricane or stronger?




NO not at the last nhc update it olny 110mph at this time
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My thinking...Nobody said it had to be neat, lol.



(Click to enlarge)


As god of an analysis as anyone else. And even I can understand that :)
Quoting fldude99:



How much farther east in your opinion?


no way it goes farther east with the bermuda high building in over florida...it can only head north or nw if it develops...further east it could go would be the miss gulf coast...this is between mexico anf miss does not let texas off the hook...
Quoting ncstorm:
6Z GFS


12Z GFS


Like I mentioned before, moved a tad west, by 50 miles or less..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Florida.


That could mean anywhere from Pensacola to Ft Myers...about 650 miles?
Quoting scooster67:


As good of an analysis as anyone else. And even I can understand that :)
XX/INV/95L
MARK
9.8N/29.28W
Quoting Darren23:
T#'s from SAB have continued to rise.

2011SEP05 154500 6.1 945.3/ -0.1 /117.4 6.1 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF

UW-CIMMS ADT still has it slightly weaker, but still a major. IMO, Katia is a 105-110 kt Major hurricane.



ouch thats makes it all most a cat 5 but i dont think it is that strong yet
12z GFS at 192hrs lil to close to florida for my liking. still so far out not to be taken serious.Link
Quoting scooster67:


As god of an analysis as anyone else. :)


I will be good. I will be good. *G*
12Z GFS takes 95L into Florida around 200 hours.

Nevermind.. takes it just east of FL, not into FL.
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


We were talking about just that late last night...While I would hate to see damage to anyone beach home, business or the like, something has to give here. THhese fires are out of control and people are dying and losing everything.. over 300 homes destroyed just in the Bastrop fire, 2 known killed so far ( 20 yr old mother and her 18 month old daughter)

I have been through some Major "Canes" and I hate to say this, but right now, I would take anything storm I can get right how and deal with the ramifications if it will help extinguish all those fires....Butt that is just me.


I can't disagree.. I live near the coast, evacuation area C, and have a boat in Kemah so any "major" storms would impact me and many in Houston.. but the trade-offs. A hard one to call. I feel bad for the fires, etc but how many folks died in the Allison floods.. Now with that said, a brush with a storm or a TS would work for me.. ;)
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
12z GFS at 192hrs lil to close to florida for my liking. still so far out not to be taken serious.Link




your links are not showing us nothing its showing a black box
Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS takes 95L into Florida around 200 hours.



how strong?
2821. Walshy
Quoting nchurricane:


if a hurricane is annular then how does that affect the track? TIA


I believe Isabel was annular and she plowed her way into north-east North Carolina and went well inland.
Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS takes 95L into Florida around 200 hours.
How is this into florida at 204?? Link
The National Hurricane Center cant wait until the 5PM advisory for Katia, they just cant. Katia has jumped at least 10 mph in intensity since the 11AM update, with 15-20 mph more likely. We have a solid Category 3 hurricane on our hands, folks.

Quoting Pirate999:


I can't disagree.. I live near the coast, evacuation area C, and have a boat in Kemah so any "major" storms would impact me and many in Houston.. but the trade-offs. A hard one to call. I feel bad for the fires, etc but how many folks died in the Allison floods.. Now with that said, a brush with a storm or a TS would work for me.. ;)


I agree, I would far rather have a TS or just a really nice "disturbed area" to come and drop about 3 days of nice slow steady rain :o)
If anything forms in the GOM it would most likely ride up the weakness/boundry towards the Fl. Panhandle.
Quoting Tazmanian:



how strong?


999 mlb.. but knowing how bad models are with pressure.. A Hurricane most likely.
Quoting nchurricane:


if a hurricane is annular then how does that affect the track? TIA


Wiki says:

An annular hurricane, also known as a truck tire or doughnut hurricane,[1] is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Oceans that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection. This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement cycles, unlike typical intense tropical cyclones. Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes. Forecasters have difficulty predicting the behavior of annular hurricanes; they are a recently recognized phenomenon, and as such, little is known about their tendencies. Because of this, they can be more dangerous than typical hurricanes.
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
How is this into florida at 204?? Link




dude stop with your links your not showing us nothing your showing him and us a black box
Katia looks like she may gain more intensity the eye is improving in shape and its cold cloud tops are almost encompassing her new eyewall.Its a good thing this will be a shipping lane issue and no land masses will be affected by Her.
the NHC need a special advisory RIGHT NOW. somebody call them, i got the phone # lol
Quoting reedzone:


999 mlb.. but knowing how bad models are with pressure.. A Hurricane most likely.



WOW
Quoting Tazmanian:




dude stop with your links your not showing us nothing your showing him and us a black box


No he isn't...The links work Taz. How about look at them for once?
Quoting DFWjc:


KOG - could you tell me what this means? i've been meaning to ask..TIA


012L/MH/K/C3
MARK
24.23N/63.33W

012L STORM NUMBER AND BASIN
MH MAJOR HURRICANE
K STORM NAME
C3 STORM INTENSITY
MARK STORM LOC
NUMBERS ARE STORM LAT/LONG
GFS actually recurves 95L about 20-30 miles east of NC.
Quoting Tazmanian:




dude stop with your links your not showing us nothing your showing him and us a black box
sorry forgot about the non linking well at 204 hrs the 12z does not show a hit on florida it shows it a hundred if not more miles off the east coast of florida so reeds comment about a hit on florida is not true at 200. thats all i wanted to show.
64 west and 25.6 north per NHC I think we will be south of this point. Looking at 65 west if it is still near the 25 north line the curve will occur closer to NC
I occasionally lurk on these blogs and even post once in a while. I have made several observations. First, there are some seriously masochistic people here. It amazes me that so many people just love it when tragedy strikes others. For those with this train wreck watching mentality, has it ever occured to you that there are people reading this blog and other news and information sources with anxiety issues? For people with such issues who have experienced weather related damages and losses, seeing or hearing about coming storms is extremely distressing. It is sad that there is such a strong contingent out there that like to hype and sensationalize every storm that exists. When people need to be warned into action, the truth needs to be communicated, no matter the severity. But there really is no need to overstate the severity of a storm or the probability of a devastating event.

Second, and related, people shouldn't be focusing on Katia at this point. The probability of it affecting humans is very small. Lee is the problem right now. It will bring heavy rains, later this week, on top of heavy rains falling today from a passing cold front in the Northeast. This are has already been devastated from Irene's flooding. We here in central and western upstate NY were largely spared from Irene's wrath but we have been getting soaked today and it looks like we will get something from the remnants of Lee. It is a much bigger concern than Katia. Hopefully Lee will weaken significantly before it hits the Northeastern areas that are already soaked and/or flooded.
RAW T # up too 6.4




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 24:41:31 N Lon : 63:25:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 954.6mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 34 km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Whole lotta warning going on.

TORNADO WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1139 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1239 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1138 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1136 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1131 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 1129 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1124 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1222 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1111 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1058 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1057 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1054 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 1154 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1052 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1051 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1048 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 1145 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1039 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1035 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1031 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 1029 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1028 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1026 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1016 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1014 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1011 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 959 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 956 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 945 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 947 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 945 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 944 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 940 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
TORNADO WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 916 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 845 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 840 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
LOOKS like the freight train is coming and the track north will be closed for now! Ready set go cause here we go into the peak of the season!
2842. SykKid
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No he isn't...The links work Taz. How about look at them for once?


hes trolling ignore him plz
Wow...

Raw and Adjusted is up to 6.4...You know what 7.0 is right?
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
sorry forgot about the non linking well at 204 hrs the 12z does not show a hit on florida it shows it a hundred if not more miles off the east coast of florida so reeds comment about a hit on florida is not true at 200. thats all i wanted to show.



thats ok
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

They don't work for me. This is what I get.


The links? As long as somebody links it, you should be able to view it when you click on it. Works for me...
12Z GFS 95L as a major Hurricane, hitting Rhode Island in 264 hours. Basically, a "Bob" path.
2847. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...

Raw and Adjusted is up to 6.4...You know what 7.0 is right?


Katia is going to be making her own steering soon..
if i posted a blog who would read it? lol..
823

WHXX01 KWBC 051221

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1221 UTC MON SEP 5 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110905 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110905 1200 110906 0000 110906 1200 110907 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.1N 29.7W 9.4N 31.2W 9.9N 33.5W 10.8N 36.7W

BAMD 9.1N 29.7W 9.6N 31.1W 10.3N 33.1W 11.4N 35.6W

BAMM 9.1N 29.7W 9.6N 31.3W 10.4N 33.4W 11.4N 36.2W

LBAR 9.1N 29.7W 9.6N 31.8W 10.2N 34.4W 10.9N 37.4W

SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 43KTS 49KTS

DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 43KTS 49KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110907 1200 110908 1200 110909 1200 110910 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.3N 40.7W 16.0N 49.4W 19.5N 56.6W 22.5N 61.9W

BAMD 12.6N 38.6W 15.0N 44.6W 16.4N 49.2W 17.0N 52.3W

BAMM 12.6N 39.5W 15.2N 46.6W 17.5N 53.0W 19.4N 57.6W

LBAR 11.5N 40.7W 12.8N 46.8W 13.8N 51.7W 14.2N 56.0W

SHIP 54KTS 55KTS 54KTS 58KTS

DSHP 54KTS 55KTS 54KTS 58KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.1N LONCUR = 29.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 27.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 24.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No he isn't...The links work Taz. How about look at them for once?




plz re read what my commet said and you no what i was talking about




dude stop with your links your not showing us nothing your showing him and us a black box
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...

Raw and Adjusted is up to 6.4...You know what 7.0 is right?
CATERGORY 5 ALERT!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...

Raw and Adjusted is up to 6.4...You know what 7.0 is right?

If 6.0 = Cat 3 or weak Cat 4, and 7.0= Cat 5 (with the exception of Igor), 6.4= Cat 4, right?
2853. Patrap
One cant Hot Link american.wx imagery no more.




Quoting Tazmanian:




plz re read what my commet said and you no what i was talking about




dude stop with your links your not showing us nothing your showing him and us a black box


I don't see a black box. I see what he is trying to show us. He linked it...that means when you click on it, you can see the image. (nods)
dudes and gals, look at this frickin hurricane!! i think i am going to call the NHC for a special advisory sequence, 1 at 1 PM another at 2PM...
Well this is fun. Watching it come down heavy on neighbor behind me while I'm getting sprinkles. :)
At least no arrows/spears aimed at me.

2857. Patrap



Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

If 6.0 = Cat 3 or weak Cat 4, and 7.0= Cat 5 (with the exception of Igor), 6.4= Cat 4, right?


6.5 is 145 mph, so yes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't see a black box. I see what he is trying to show us. He linked it...that means when you click on it, you can see the image. (nods)

I can't see it. I still see the God-forbidden black box lol.
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats ok


Post was corrected before he posted that.. Just saying..
then i dont get it how can some see it and some dont
i am going to check the % for a 4 or 5 category, they should be over 10 %
CIMSS developed the system for SAP. UW is showing lower numbers but still growing.

Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng
154500 5.7 954.6 107.2 5.7 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF
might not be any rest next month and a half
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


6.5 is 145 mph, so yes.

Our strongest hurricane so far if that's right. Irene was deeper though.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I can't see it. I still see the friggin black box lol.


Well...I can't help that, lol.

friggin isn't a word, BTW. ;)
2867. oakland
New Blog, everyone!
Quoting SPLbeater:
i am going to check the % for a 4 or 5 category, they should be over 10 %


10%

1%.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't see a black box. I see what he is trying to show us. He linked it...that means when you click on it, you can see the image. (nods)

I get the no hot linking black box.
NEW BLOG!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well...I can't help that, lol.

friggin isn't a word, BTW. ;)

Changed it lol.
NEW BLOG
MAJOR
012L/MH/K/C3
MARK
24.53N/64.13W
2874. txjac
Quoting Tazmanian:
then i dont get it how can some see it and some dont


It might be that some have looked at the same image that he linked and have it in their cache ..where as others havent looked at it on their computer prior to his posting the link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't see a black box. I see what he is trying to show us. He linked it...that means when you click on it, you can see the image. (nods)


Clear your cache, then try the link. Bet it goes black.
2876. aquak9
Quoting aquak9:
Here's a link for the RedCross Safe and Well Registration. You can list yourself, or search for people.

Link

This link is the incidents page for Austin and Travis counties. Link

And this is Austin's Homeland Security Page which includes road closures and power outages, ya gotta scroll down a little, it's on the right side of the page.

Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
then i dont get it how can some see it and some dont


Different browsers I'd bet
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NEW BLOG!


When I clicked on your name The page that I get has your latest blog as Aug 9th ....?

Maybe I'm looking in the wrong place?
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


When I clicked on your name The page that I get has your latest blog as Aug 9th ....?

Maybe I'm looking in the wrong place?


You want to click Jeff Master's blog.
‎#BASTROP FIRE: NEW Fire has formed near Liesure Lane, Highway 21, and Highway 1209. EVACUATE NOW. #txfire #centraltxfires

Reposting: The fires in Tahitian Village in Bastrop, there trying to doze a circle to keep it from jumping to the other side of the Colorado river again. They've now bring in army tanks, helicopter with water and doing everything they can. The state park in the other side of the highway looks contained. This is a nightmare.

LinkTexas Storm Chaser: Tweet.


TEXAS FIRES: Austin FD reporting on-lookers are blocking roads. You have NO REASON to be anywhere near these fires! #centraltxfires #txfire
12z GFS now develops 95L. The models tend to catch onto these systems once they start actually developing.
95L looks like it is going to be a fully developed system E of the islands... looks very organized, moving its Coc W near 10N...
Joe Bastardi:
"New Canadian has path very close to 1936 hurricane"
2888. rv1pop
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't see a black box. I see what he is trying to show us. He linked it...that means when you click on it, you can see the image. (nods)


Hot Linking

On the main server will link. On linked (by ipserver or redirects)or mirror will not link. I can not get the mirror map, but my IT person showed me the multi mirrors that site has.... Those that see it are correct -- those that get the black box are correct.

Talk to your IT.
Quoting GainesvilleGator:


There are water fights going on in FL right now so yes, water is a political hot button. Keep in mind that a lot of states would benefit by having the Missisippi tapped as it would lesson the threat of having damaging floods from result of too much snow melt & rains. I do think this can be a win-win situation with all states benefiting. Off course, you have politicians who don't do what is in the best interest of the people. I don't see an environmental downside here.


The floods that happened in ND/NE/SD/MO this past spring were caused by the Army Corps of Engineers using models & methods from the 1880s; apparently, the ACoE don't trust the predictions from modern meteorologists and didn't allow the water out of the reservoirs prior to the massive melting/rainfall that occurred. You would think that they could see the flooding that happened in the northern Mississippi plains areas and prepare the lower areas to prevent the flooding, however, they didn't. I read an article that explained exactly why the Mississippi & Platte rivers flooded this year and it was the failure of the ACoE to do their job properly. A lot of the problems with fresh water could be prevented if they would update their methods to reflect modern technology, but they seem to be refusing to do so. We could have saved a lot of farmland and had extra water for the drought-states if they'd update their methods.