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Late-Winter Severe Weather on Tap Across Southeast; Strong Tornadoes Possible

By: Bob Henson 7:45 PM GMT on February 23, 2016

A compact, potent streak of upper-level energy diving into the Southeast on Tuesday is expected to trigger widespread severe weather from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, with the potential for a regional tornado outbreak across the Deep South late Tuesday. The set-up has some of the earmarks of earlier outbreaks this winter that have brought intense storms to the central Gulf Coast and Florida, but in this case the dynamics in play are especially strong. At midday Tuesday, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) was calling for a moderate risk of severe weather from far eastern Louisiana across southern Mississippi and Alabama into far southwest Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle. Strong tornadoes are possible across the moderate-risk area. A larger slight-risk area surrounds the moderate risk (see Figure 1).

Severe weather had already kicked off just after noon CST Tuesday in southeast Louisiana, as an apparent tornadic waterspout formed over Lake Ponchartrain. Waterspouts often develop from relatively modest lines of cumulus clouds, typically moving quite slowly, but they can also emerge from severe thunderstorms in much the same way as land-based tornadoes do. These tornadic waterspouts can move quickly onshore and pose a much greater threat to coastal communities. A tornado watch was issued late Tuesday morning across most of southern Louisiana, with more watches sure to follow further east.



Figure 1. Areas of severe weather anticipated by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center for Tues., Feb. 23 (left, extending through 7:00 am EST Wednesday) and Wed., Feb. 24 (right, extending through 7:00 am EST Thursday). The strongest activity is expected late Tuesday near the upper Gulf Coast and on Wednesday afternoon over eastern North Carolina. These outlooks were issued at 11:30 am EST (left) and 12:30 pm EST (right) on Tues., Feb. 23. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


Today’s watchword: dynamics
The upper-level feature heading toward the Gulf Coast is a small but very energetic lobe at the base of a larger upper trough moving across the central states into the Midwest. A ribbon of jet-stream-level winds exceeding 120 mph, over the central Rockies early Tuesday, will be diving into the southeast US by late Tuesday. The lobe will spin up a powerful surface low expected to track from Louisiana on Tuesday afternoon to western Ohio by Wednesday, pushing a cold front across the Southeast. Warm, unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico will struggle to make it very far northward before the front arrives, but moderately unstable air with dew points above 60°F should envelop most of Mississippi and Alabama by Tuesday night. A narrow wedge of instability will shoot up the East Coast on Wednesday, perhaps making it north of the Washington, D.C., area by evening.


Figure 2. Jet-stream winds at the 250-mb level (about 34,000 feet) predicted by the GFS model in its 24-hour forecast valid at 7:00 am EST Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016. Very strong winds will be in place across the severe weather risk area late Tuesday night. Upward motion favoring supercells will be maximized near the upper-level jet streak, or across southern Mississippi and Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle late Tuesday night. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.


In some cases, the modest amounts of instability on Tuesday and Wednesday might produce only garden-variety thunderstorms. However, in this case the relatively low instability will be more than compensated for by extremely strong dynamics. It is rare for an upper-level feature this strong to travel so far south across the upper Gulf Coast. As the surface low organizes well to the northwest, vertical wind shear will dramatically increase across the moderate risk area, as winds strengthen at all levels and veer from southeasterly near the surface to southwesterly just aloft. The wind shear will be approaching levels observed in some of the stronger Gulf Coast severe weather outbreaks on record. WU contributor Lee Grenci has a new post explaining why the low-level jet stream is especially important on a day like today in generating storm rotation.

At midday Tuesday, Weather Channel’s Dr. Greg Forbes raised the TOR:CON level to 8 across the SPC’s moderate-risk area. This means there is a 80 percent chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the specified areas.

Residents of the upper Gulf Coast within the moderate risk area who lack adequate shelter at home would be well advised wherever possible to identify potential safe-shelter areas before nightfall. Storms will be moving and evolving at an increasingly faster pace as this evening unfolds. The most dangerous tornadoes are most likely to occur in any isolated supercell thunderstorms that develop ahead of the main front. However, strong winds and brief tornadoes are also possible with a squall line or line segments that should develop near the front later tonight.


Figure 3. Simulated radar reflectivity from the 14Z Tuesday run of the HRRR model, valid at midnight EST Tuesday night, Feb. 23, 2016. Even at this late hour, powerful thunderstorms should be rumbling across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Eastern NC at risk of strong tornadoes on Wednesday
Wednesday’s severe potential will depend on part on how extensive and long-lived Tuesday night’s storms end up becoming. However, there is some confidence that eastern North Carolina will be under the gun, given the timing of the system (it will be approaching eastern NC by mid/late afternoon, when surface temperatures and instability would normally be peaking). In its Day 2 convective outlook for Wednesday updated at 1:30 pm EST Tuesday, SPC introduced a risk area of significant tornadoes over eastern NC.

Follow the severe weather on our live blog
We’ve launched a WU live blog to provide frequent updates on the severe weather this afternoon and evening into Wednesday. You can get to the live blog from this link and from the “Tornado Risk” box on the right hand-side of the WU home page.

Bob Henson

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


Aerial footage of devastation at Makogai Is., Fiji






someone oughtta bring that video of the three waterspouts at once, on lake ponch
Late SPRING ??

It is still late winter.


Otherwise yeah.. this one warrants attention!
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 151 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

Barely made 80 so far. Over at the Courthouse doing Jury Duty.
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Horrible.
At the risk of asking a dumb question: what exactly is the WU "live" blog compared to this blog?
No real change in Baton Rouge still. Some pretty steady rain and occasional thunder but barely any wind at all.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MS...SERN LA...SWRN/S-CNTRL
AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231915Z - 232115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FURTHER INCREASING DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA INTO CNTRL/SRN
MS...WITH THE TORNADO RISK SPREADING INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL AL AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 21Z.

DISCUSSION...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REFLECTED BY 2-HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS OF 2.0-3.5 MB ARE ANALYZED AHEAD OF A SFC LOW CENTERED N OF
LUFKIN TX. A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD TO A
WARM FRONT BRANCHING E/ENE OF THE LOW INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND
EWD...ASSOCIATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. POCKETS
OF MODEST INSOLATION WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER DESTABILIZATION S OF
THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND
500-1000 J PER KG SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20/.

MIXED-MODE CONVECTION -- INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUES
EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA...AS ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED
MCD 0125. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD/NEWD THIS
AFTERNOON AMIDST A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...EVENTUALLY
EXTENDING N OF WW 19 PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. LATER...THE RISK
FOR SVR CONVECTION INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF
SWRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EVENING. LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS HAVE
ALREADY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2 FROM
SERN MS AND POINTS EWD THIS EVENING AS H85 SLYS INCREASE TO 50-65
KT. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MS INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL AL AND THE
FL PANHANDLE.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 02/23/2016


ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32449007 32438803 32008654 30828645 30448710 30138918
30469078 31059132 31769122 32449007
From the SPC's 20z update:

"CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FORECAST EVOLUTION IN A MARKED
INTENSIFICATION IN SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS FAR SERN MS AND EXTENDING
ENEWD INTO SRN AL BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE --ESPECIALLY RECENT
HRRR RUNS-- ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLUSTER OF
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS /I.E. SUPERCELLS/ DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR
TRAVERSING ENEWD FROM SRN MS INTO SRN AL. HOWEVER...DETAILS
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF WARM SECTOR STORMS REMAIN UNCLEAR BUT
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AT A LATER OUTLOOK UPDATE
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE MODERATE RISK /I.E. SRN AL/.
"
Well, I typed a long message that's gone due to the "Resend validation Email" garbage that doesn't actually work. It's 78 and sunny with a dewpoint of 64 in SE Alabama.
SPC NOAA

Tornado watch # 20 issued.

Details to FOLLOW
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Quoting 413. Vebz25:

Aerial footage of devastation at Makogai Is., Fiji

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmT2JVNOGPw&l ist= PLNxwX7r4A557FYqcq9AjL33HmvPOzt2uK&index=1


Makogai: very sad video. Here is a photo gallery of what the island looked like before "Winston".



Where the island is located. Probably felt the worst southern eyewall of the cyclone.

Fijian islands still cut off after cyclone, fear of Zika and Dengue outbreaks
Source: Reuters - Tue, 23 Feb 2016 06:39 GMT
Quoting 12. sar2401:

Well, I typed a long message that's gone due to the "Resend validation Email" garbage that doesn't actually work. It's 78 and sunny with a dewpoint of 64 in SE Alabama.

copy your stuff to another file before you hit send....just in case, you know better...
PDS Tornado Watch up.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 20
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 20
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 19...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON
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Weather Topics:
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Thank You Dr. Henson and you are correct about the "shallow" nature of the warm Gulf flow intrusion upstream in this case; pretty much confined to the coastal Gulf region from LA to Florida which is where we might expect the worst of the tornado threat from this particular system. As noted earlier, the sun is shining here in North Florida at the moment along with a very warm pocket of flow from the Gulf into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and Southern AL and GA. That should give a boost to the t-storms as this relatively slow mover chugs East.  
Not looking forward to this evening and tomorrow in my particular parts (Florida Big Bend).

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Quoting 15. PedleyCA:


copy your stuff to another file before you hit send....just in case, you know better...
I'll just find better things to do with my time if they can't get this train wreck fixed.
Quoting 12. sar2401:

Well, I typed a long message that's gone due to the "Resend validation Email" garbage that doesn't actually work. It's 78 and sunny with a dewpoint of 64 in SE Alabama.


Not good.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 21
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS JUST TO THE WEST. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE LARGER RAIN AREAS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 19...WW 20...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
You can pretty much connect the dots as to where the tornadic threat is headed next on the way east: looks like Southern Al (Mobile region) is next in line but talk about a slow mover; Louisiana has been getting hammered for several hours now.

last3hours Reports Graphic

 
680  
WGUS54 KLCH 232028  
FFWLCH  
LAC101-232330-  
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0001.160223T2028Z-160223T2330Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
228 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CST  
 
* AT 224 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE  
ALREADY FALLEN WITH SOME STREET FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING.  
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE OVER THE  
AREA PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT  
MAY BEGIN TO ENTER STRUCTURES AND CAUSE VEHICLES TO STALL IF  
ATTEMPTING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADS.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...JEANERETTE...BERWICK ...BAYOU  
VISTA...BURNS POINT...BALDWIN...CHARENTON...COTE BLANCHE ISLAND...  
PATTERSON MEMORIAL AIRPORT...SORREL...ELLERSLIE...GLENCOE AND  
CENTERVILLE.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
WARNED AREA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS AND MOVE BELONGINGS TO HIGHER  
GROUND IF FLOOD WATERS APPROACH.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2951 9135 2951 9140 2952 9143 2955 9141  
2954 9152 2964 9156 2964 9164 2975 9161  
2975 9160 2976 9170 2975 9170 2974 9178  
2977 9182 2995 9155 2996 9147 2984 9137  
2978 9139 2972 9113 2967 9110  
 
 
 
BRAZZELL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

I can't remember the last time my area was under a moderate risk, but it's surely the greatest severe potential I've seen since I've lived here as a student. Originally we were in a slight risk last night, then it got upgraded to an enhanced this morning, and now we are on the border of the moderate risk thanks to models as a whole trending stronger with instability here.

This may be from the fact that we've had warmer weather this past week allowing the shelf waters to warm from the low 50's to lower 60's, and that we are getting full sun allowing boundary layer heating and mixing. Every past severe weather threat since I've been here during this time of year has been overcast with cool marine fog and mist. This stability often limits the potential for severe despite that high shear events are pretty common this time of year here.

Well in this case, the timing of even much higher shear than usual, and higher than average instability for this time of year is coming to together at just the right time over night tonight based on recent trends the last 12-24 hours.

I know that I'll be doing plenty of things this evening, but one thing I probably won't be doing much of is sleeping, lol.
Quoting 20. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Dr. Henson and you are correct about the "shallow" nature of the warm Gulf flow intrusion upstream in this case; pretty much confined to the coastal Gulf region from LA to Florida which is where we might expect the worst of the tornado threat from this particular system. As noted earlier, the sun is shining here in North Florida at the moment along with a very warm pocket of flow from the Gulf into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and Southern AL and GA. That should give a boost to the t-storms as this relatively slow mover chugs East.  
Not looking forward to this evening and tomorrow in my particular parts (Florida Big Bend).

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database




Yep, the shallow warm/moist layer with dry air aloft and a lack of deep convection further south in the gulf is crucial for a major severe weather event for the northern gulf coast and points north. It allows for steepening lapse rates and building instability, something we usually don't get in the FL panhandle this time of year ahead of potential severe threats. This whole situation is looking very ominous.
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 130 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 8. snow2fire:

At the risk of asking a dumb question: what exactly is the WU "live" blog compared to this blog?


Not a dumb question at all! Jeff and I are only able to post full updates at this blog every day or so. The live blog is where WU meteorologists (typically me and Shaun Tanner) provide shorter-fuse updates on watches, warnings, mesoscale evolution, etc. Readers are welcome to post comments on the live blog as well as here on this blog.
Quoting 12. sar2401:

Well, I typed a long message that's gone due to the "Resend validation Email" garbage that doesn't actually work. It's 78 and sunny with a dewpoint of 64 in SE Alabama.
Had the same thing, only way to correct it was to log out and back in. But now all the comments are in italics...

*edit* Nevermind, it's fixed now.
It has been since Spring of 2012 since NOLA has had a PDS watch.

Be aware, this watch goes to 10pm now.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 20
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 19...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON
Top of Page/All Current Watches/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches,Mesoscale Discussions,Outlooks,Fire Weather,All Products,Contact Us
Another aerial footage of storm devastation In Fiji (video doesn't mention the exact location though):

23.02.2016 Aerial footage shows huge devastation in Fiji after the country was hit by a powerful storm. A massive clean-up has begun on the island after Cyclone Winston brought winds of over 320km/h (200mph), killing at least 20.

Have to go; good night. Hope to see you all unscathed tomorrow. And thanks to Bob for the coverage of the severe weather.
Will note as I always do (and particularly with an overnight passage for many folks in the Coastal Gulf).

Alert your friends and families in these areas (and yourselves) about the evening-overnight threat and to consider the following:

a) parking your cars/boats/RV's etc. away from trees/potential falling branches and/or into your garage this afternoon; and

b) As already suggested by the Post, tell friends and/or relatives who live in mobile homes to consider spending this evening with friends/relatives who live in sturdier homes.

Better safe than sorry when it comes to overnight severe weather when most are sleeping and hope for the best in your particular neighborhood when you wake up tomorrow morning.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SW
GA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
WRN GA TO CENTRAL LA AND MS/AL/WRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK...FROM
EXTREME SE TX TO NRN MS/AL...MUCH OF GA...AND INTO N FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT
RISK...FROM SE TX TO SRN TN TO THE GA/SC BORDER AND NE FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE IS TO REDUCE/REMOVE
PROBABILITIES ON THE WRN AND NWRN PORTION OF THE SEVERE OUTLOOK
ACROSS TX/LA/MS.

CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FORECAST EVOLUTION IN A MARKED
INTENSIFICATION IN SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS FAR SERN MS AND EXTENDING
ENEWD INTO SRN AL BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE --ESPECIALLY RECENT
HRRR RUNS-- ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CLUSTER OF
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS /I.E. SUPERCELLS/ DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR
TRAVERSING ENEWD FROM SRN MS INTO SRN AL. HOWEVER...DETAILS
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF WARM SECTOR STORMS REMAIN UNCLEAR BUT
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AT A LATER OUTLOOK UPDATE
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE MODERATE RISK /I.E. SRN AL/.

..SMITH.. 02/23/2016

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND INTO FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG-TORNADO RISK MAY
MAXIMIZE OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
Here the overnight timing for SE Alabama and adjacent Florida Panhandle-Big Bend region; also remember to charge your cell phones before going to bed in case you lose power overnight (and/or use the wake up alarm feature on your phone):

The forecast timing of this severe threat has remained remarkably
unchanged for the past few days. The main threat will begin around
Midnight CST in southeast AL and eastern FL Panhandle, and end
before Noon EST as the rain clears the Valdosta and Cross City
area. The most favorable CAPE and synoptic forcing will be west
of a line from Tifton to Tallahassee. It is in this region where
there could be a few significant tornadoes (EF-2 or worse),
with the possibility of a track of 10 miles.
Given the magnitude
of the winds aloft, straight line wind gusts may reach hurricane
force. East of Tallahassee the threat should gradually decrease
(around daybreak), though we don`t want to downplay the danger because
that region is still in a "slight risk" for severe storms.





I hate it when Dr Greg Forbs talks about a single storm coming into the Mobile Bay Area

Taco :-(
Quoting 31. BobHenson:



Thanks! Also - Your weather insights are appreciated :)
Weather warnings on the go!



Imagine this: You’re driving down the highway, humming along to your favorite tunes, when the cell phone stowed in your bag suddenly makes a strange noise. To investigate, you take the next exit and safely pull over to check the screen. Good thing you did: Your phone just alerted you to a tornado a few miles away in same county you’re driving through.

Sound plausible? It is. America’s wireless industry is helping to build a Weather-Ready Nation through a nationwide text emergency alert system, called Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), which will warn you when weather threatens. Read the rest of the article on NOAA.gov.

And check out real stories of how WEA has saved lives across America.
Frequently Asked Questions

1. What are WEA messages?

Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) are emergency messages sent by authorized government alerting authorities through your mobile carrier. Government partners include local and state public safety agencies, FEMA, the FCC, the Department of Homeland Security, and the National Weather Service.

2. Why is this important to me?

Alerts received at the right time can help keep you safe during an emergency. With WEA, alerts can be sent to your mobile device when you may be in harm's way, without need to download an app or subscribe to a service.

3. What types of alerts will I receive?

Extreme weather warnings
Local emergencies requiring evacuation or immediate action
AMBER Alerts
Presidential Alerts during a national emergency

Example of a Wireless Emergency Alert on an iPhone 5 (AT&T).
Example of a Wireless Emergency Alert on an iPhone 5 (AT&T).

4. What does a WEA message look like?

WEA will look like a text message. The WEA message will typically show the type and time of the alert, any action you should take, and the agency issuing the alert. The message will be no more than 90 characters.
Quoting 41. weathermanwannabe:

Here the overnight timing for the Florida Big Bend; also remember to charge your cell phones before going to bed in case you lose power overnight (and/or use the wake up alarm feature on your phone):






On that note, cell phones (even the honking smartphones) do not consume much power and a car charger or even a small inverter connected to a car battery could deliver many charge cycles. A typical charger draws about 13W and most cigarette lighter inverters will put out at least 80W. You can't run much stuff off one of those inverters but cell phone chargers are okay. By contrast a laptop power supply just about draws what an 80W inverter can put out.

It's moot for me because the new lithium car jump start batteries you put in a glove compartment also have USB ports for charging and that's what I use.

What I'd really like is to have maintained the copper line infrastructure for phones.. the fiber stuff in the 21'st century is much more vulnerable to power outages so landlines that worked in the 20'th century with low power through copper, are likely to fail with their higher power requirements for fiber if regional power is lost.
And cellphone networks will fail once the towers lose power and their batteries are exhausted.. I think that's a matter of hours.
758  
WUUS54 KLIX 232103  
SVRLIX  
LAC005-007-047-057-093-232130-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0028.160223T2103Z-160223T2130Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
303 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 330 PM CST  
 
* AT 302 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BELLE  
RIVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
THIBODAUX...DONALDSONVILLE...NAPOLEONVILL E...BELLE RIVER...  
PAINCOURTVILLE...CHACKBAY...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...BELLE ROSE  
AND SUPREME.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT  
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A  
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR  
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 

 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
311 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 345 PM CST  
 
* AT 310 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITE CASTLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF  
PLAQUEMINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
WHITE CASTLE AND CARVILLE AROUND 320 PM CST.  
GEISMER AROUND 325 PM CST.  
GONZALES...PRAIRIEVILLE AND OLD JEFFERSON AROUND 335 PM CST.  
SHENANDOAH AROUND 340 PM CST.  GEISMER AROUND 325 PM CST.  
GONZALES...PRAIRIEVILLE AND OLD JEFFERSON AROUND 335 PM CST.  
SHENANDOAH AROUND 340 PM CST.  
PORT VINCENT AROUND 345 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS OR IN  
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3044 9098 3044 9097 3042 9098 3041 9096  
3039 9097 3039 9096 3040 9095 3037 9094  
3036 9091 3035 9089 3034 9086 3032 9083  
3028 9081 3028 9078 3026 9079 3004 9121  
3011 9128  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 227DEG 41KT 3012 9120  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 313 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 34. Patrap:

It has been since Spring of 2012 since NOLA has had a PDS watch.

Be aware, this watch goes to 10pm now.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 20
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 19...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON
Top of Page/All Current Watches/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches,�Mesoscale Discussions,�Outlooks,�Fire Weather,�All Products,�Contact Us
/ro /ro /rotate your owl

rotate your owl for SCIENCE
Really getting the wind translating down from above the last 5 min.

25-35mph.

Sounds like late August.

Is it just me, or does this not look that impressive? especially compared to the system early last week which featured multiple distinct supercells out in the Gulf ahead of the main line.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
319 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 345 PM CST  
 
* AT 319 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PAINCOURTVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF  
NAPOLEONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
DONALDSONVILLE AND BELLE ROSE AROUND 330 PM CST.  
CONVENT AROUND 340 PM CST.  
GRAMERCY...LUTCHER AND SORRENTO AROUND 345 PM CST.  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3028 9081 3010 9065 3009 9067 3006 9067  
2993 9116 3003 9122 3004 9122  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 242DEG 46KT 2999 9113  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
MJH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Gold's Gym, damage, Prairieville,La.

Here is a portion the email I just got at work as to potential Tallahassee impacts: glad to see that they are on top of it and getting the word out to State employees before they head home this afternoon:


The following information is being forwarded from Kelly Godsey with
National Weather Service Tallahassee. We will continue to send out updates as
more information is received.



Attached to this email are the timing slides from the Monday afternoon
webinar and an updated one page briefing packet for this event.

Key
Points:

1. Significant Severe Weather Outbreak likely to evolve across
the Southern States on Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Main impacts in the
Tallahassee forecast area are expected to begin Tuesday evening and continue
through Wednesday morning.

3. Potential impacts are:
a)
Destructive winds in excess of 70 mph.
b) Scattered tornadoes - some
potentially significant
c) Large hail

4. After the passage of
the cold front, strong west to northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible,
which could down trees after a widespread wetting rain.


Leon County Division of Emergency Management




BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
327 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 415 PM CST  
 
* AT 326 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EMPIRE...OR 21 MILES  
SOUTH OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
BURAS-TRIUMPH AROUND 350 PM CST.  
BURAS AROUND 355 PM CST.  
BOOTHVILLE-VENICE AROUND 400 PM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
BOOTHVILLE ASOS.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2929 8967 2933 8964 2930 8967 2930 8972  
2948 8959 2946 8952 2940 8952 2942 8958  
2940 8958 2939 8956 2938 8933 2935 8940  
2935 8936 2933 8937 2935 8930 2924 8952  
2923 8950 2922 8951  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 220DEG 34KT 2918 8973  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

NWS, Wilmington, NC

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT RISK IS DEVELOPING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE OUR FIRST BIG EVENT OF THE 2016
SPRING SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. IF THIS SPRING UNFOLDS ANYTHING LIKE
1998 (THE LAST MAJOR EL NINO) THIS WON`T BE THE LAST BIG EVENT
EITHER...

POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD BEHIND A WARM FRONT SHOULD OVERSPREAD
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL
HAVE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING IT LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS SHOULD GO CRAZY: 975 MB (500-600 FEET AGL) WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 35-45 KNOTS WITH A FEW 50 KT SPOTS SHOWING
UP IN GFS DATA. 850 MB WIND SHOULD INCREASE TO 55-65 KNOTS!
SINCE SKIES SHOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST IN THE MORNING LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO LEAP INTO THE 70S WITH SUBSEQUENT VERTICAL
MIXING DRAGGING DOWN 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN CLEAR AIR WELL AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT A REGION OF STRONG ASCENT SHOULD
SUPPORT A SQUALL LINE ACROSS CENTRAL SC BY NOON...PUSHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CAPE RANGES FROM 500-1000 J/KG ON MOST MODELS WITH 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF 150-300 M^2/S^2. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
TORNADO/HAIL RISK DEVELOPING NEAR BREAKS IN THE LINE OR WITH ANY
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. ALTHOUGH A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHEST RISK
APPEARS TO BE INLAND FROM THE BEACHES (DUE TO COOL AND STABLE
MARINE INFLOW) AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO STRONGER AND MORE
BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT.


Sounding northeast of Raleigh, NC tomorrow afternoon.

Jeeeeesus.

088  
WFUS54 KLIX 232138  
TORLIX  
LAC005-063-093-095-232215-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0032.160223T2138Z-160223T2215Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
338 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN  
LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 415 PM CST  
 
* AT 338 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR CONVENT...OR 7 MILES EAST OF DONALDSONVILLE...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS  
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE  
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO  
HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE  
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
GRAMERCY AND LUTCHER AROUND 350 PM CST.  
WALLACE AROUND 355 PM CST.  
RESERVE...LAPLACE AND GARYVILLE AROUND 405 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3029 9061 3022 9058 3021 9058 3021 9059  
3020 9060 3019 9060 3017 9056 3005 9051  
3003 9090 3015 9094  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 247DEG 36KT 3008 9087  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
MJH  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 338 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CONVENT...OR 7 MILES EAST OF DONALDSONVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO
HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GRAMERCY AND LUTCHER AROUND 350 PM CST.
WALLACE AROUND 355 PM CST.
RESERVE...LAPLACE AND GARYVILLE AROUND 405 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
NEW ORLEANS.



LAT...LON 3029 9061 3022 9058 3021 9058 3021 9059
3020 9060 3019 9060 3017 9056 3005 9051
3003 9090 3015 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 247DEG 36KT 3008 9087

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...<.75IN



MJH
I believe this has been said among a few bloggers today as well:

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT RISK IS DEVELOPING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE OUR FIRST BIG EVENT OF THE 2016
SPRING SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. IF THIS SPRING UNFOLDS ANYTHING LIKE
1998 (THE LAST MAJOR EL NINO) THIS WON`T BE THE LAST BIG EVENT
EITHER...
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
342 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 415 PM CST  
 
* AT 341 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SANDY HOOK TO NEAR CROSSROADS TO BUSH TO NEAR  
COVINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO  
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BOGALUSA...COVINGTON...POPLARVILLE...ABITA SPRINGS...VARNADO...  
MADISONVILLE...SUN...CROSSROADS...BUSH...MCNEIL AND ANGIE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY  
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE  
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN  
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  
 
LAT...LON 3098 8947 3098 8943 3101 8942 3101 8935  
3096 8934 3067 8942 3065 8954 3062 8956  
3038 9024 3056 8995 3076 8985 3100 8987  
3101 8950  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 235DEG 43KT 3097 8982 3080 8981 3059 8990 3045  
9014  
 
TORNADO...POSSIBLE  
HAIL...<.75IN  
WIND...70MPH  
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 345 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
12K power outages in Se La currently.

Entergy
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 130 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Gonna be watching TWC this evening until the power goes at my house (usually with just a 40 mph gust because of the tree lines around the power lines where I live) then switch over to the Noaa Alert Radio.....................Make sure Yall have batteries and a NOAA radio handy tonight as well and be very careful driving into work tomorrow (if you must) because of debris on the road and/or flooding.

Also note that drainage is really bad on I-10 on the stretch between 231 (Panama City-Dothan exit) and Tallahassee and it could be hydroplane city for the morning commute. If the rain is really bad in the early am hours, FHP might be closing down some parts of the inter-state so you would have to re-route out to HWY 90 so make allowances for any potential delays.
Quoting 54. opal92nwf:

Is it just me, or does this not look that impressive? especially compared to the system early last week which featured multiple distinct supercells out in the Gulf ahead of the main line.

Don't be fooled by what it looks like now. The 1000mb low just at the TX/LA border will deepen under the influence of a 125 mph jet streak and cold front headed down from the Plains now. This will all come together over south MS, moving to south AL and the FL Panhandle later tonight. It will be an overnight event, and storms will ramp up fast.
Wow it's going to get bad tonight. That large batch of rain was holding up severe weather but now it's lifting to the north and in return we should see more supercells begin to develop. Does anyone know when the next SPC update is?
I am still trying to wrap my head around how long the severe weather has been lingering over LA (and Patrap).............

Stay Safe Bud.............................
Since this morning:

today Reports Graphic

Last 3 hours:

last3hours Reports Graphic
I'm wondering if a full rainbow before the storms is a good omen, or bad. The barometric pressure is 29.52 with a dew point of 64. Plus, I have a headache and my cat is following my every step. When I sit down, he pats me on the leg until I pet him. I may rename him "Stormy."

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED TORNADOES...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE THIS EVENING...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SUPERCELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT INTO A SQUALL LINE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE HIGHEST RISK WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 3 AM TO
11 AM WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH THE SATURATED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO
KEEP THE FLASH FLOODING RISK HIGH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISHES AS THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE
STATE...ALTHOUGH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MANY AREAS COULD SEE SW WINDS 25 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP
TO 2 INCHES AND FUTURE UPDATES COULD WARRANT A POSSIBLE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES...
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE...TO
CLANTON...TO LAFAYETTE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...AS SEVERE THREAT TIMING
AND IMPACT AREAS MAY CHANGE. HAVE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS READY
FOR ACTIVATION WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. SOME GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.

RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON
SATURATED SOILS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.

RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TOMBIGBEE BASIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 356 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 354 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 352 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 351 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Yikes, it's starting to get ugly real quick, tornadic shear and strait line wind signatures are popping up like crazy now.

NHC Schools to dismiss early Wednesday
Posted: Feb 23, 2016 4:53 PM EST
Updated: Feb 23, 2016 4:53 PM EST
By: WECT Staff
Connect

Due to the threat of severe weather, New Hanover County Schools will dismiss early Wednesday. (Source: Raycom Image Bank) Due to the threat of severe weather, New Hanover County Schools will dismiss early Wednesday. (Source: Raycom Image Bank)
WILMINGTON, NC (WECT) -

Due to the threat of severe weather, New Hanover County Schools will dismiss early Wednesday.

Everyone please be safe and adhere to your local NWS..

According to New Hanover County Schools, all elementary schools will be dismissed at 11:30 a.m.

Those students who are in middle and high school will be dismissed at 12:30 p.m.

Early Colleges will be dismissed at 1:30 p.m.

All after school programs and athletics are cancelled for Wednesday as well.
NWS Stating the CONFIRMED Nado here is near Ruddok at I-10 and Hwy 55 with Doppler picking up debris in the Air.



Quoting 76. Alagirl:

I'm wondering if a full rainbow before the storms is a good omen, or bad. The barometric pressure is 29.52 with a dew point of 64. Plus, I have a headache and my cat is following my every step. When I sit down, he pats me on the leg until I pet him. I may rename him "Stormy."
LOL. If the rainbow was in the east, that would be better news. I suspect it was west or south, meaning more storms are on the way. All the storms now are coming from the SW, but that will change to more west later tonight. So far, my cats and Radar Dog are behaving pretty much normal. Radar Dog hasn't even started his nervous dance yet, so it doesn't seem like even a decent thunderstorm is headed this way...yet. Your barometer probably needs to be recalibrated. I'm at a sea level pressure of 29.65, and yours shouldn't be much different. That's down from 29.80 at 0800.
Quoting 54. opal92nwf:

Is it just me, or does this not look that impressive? especially compared to the system early last week which featured multiple distinct supercells out in the Gulf ahead of the main line.



Yeah severe thunderstorms and tornado warned cells are popping up fast, some of which is looking very dangerous. Not sure what you're looking at, but things are going downhill fast as expected.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
401 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 430 PM CST  
 
* AT 401 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RESERVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY...SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA AND NORTHERN ST.  
JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISHES.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 407 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 403 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 74. Tcwx2:

Wow it's going to get bad tonight. That large batch of rain was holding up severe weather but now it's lifting to the north and in return we should see more supercells begin to develop. Does anyone know when the next SPC update is?
It tells you at the bottom of each of the text blocks. Next one will 7:00 pm our time. I don't really expect the update to change without a bigger outbreak between now and then, and that's not likely until the low near the TX/LA finally gets a move on.
The shear signature wnw of New Orleans looks bad, radar velocities are maxing out.
Be advised on the N Shore, that the Nado warned cell may come your way.





Quoting 73. sar2401:

Don't be fooled by what it looks like now. The 1000mb low just at the TX/LA border will deepen under the influence of a 125 mph jet streak and cold front headed down from the Plains now. This will all come together over south MS, moving to south AL and the FL Panhandle later tonight. It will be an overnight event, and storms will ramp up fast.
Quoting 85. Jedkins01:



Yeah severe thunderstorms and tornado warned cells are popping up fast, some of which is looking very dangerous. Not sure what you're looking at, but things are going downhill fast as expected.

Ahh, I see. Yeah, it is already looking worse since I posted that.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
415 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 445 PM CST  
 
* AT 415 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF BAXTERVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF  
LUMBERTON TO NEAR POPLARVILLE TO 15 MILES EAST OF CROSSROADS TO  
MCNEIL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE  
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE  
HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
POPLARVILLE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE  
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY  
FROM WINDOWS.  
 
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 421 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 417 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
It was east, opposite a bright sun. The barometer reading is from WU, not sure where they get it from.
Quoting 84. sar2401:

LOL. If the rainbow was in the east, that would be better news. I suspect it was west or south, meaning more storms are on the way. All the storms now are coming from the SW, but that will change to more west later tonight. So far, my cats and Radar Dog are behaving pretty much normal. Radar Dog hasn't even started his nervous dance yet, so it doesn't seem like even a decent thunderstorm is headed this way...yet. Your barometer probably needs to be recalibrated. I'm at a sea level pressure of 29.65, and yours shouldn't be much different. That's down from 29.80 at 0800.
Quoting 74. Tcwx2:

Wow it's going to get bad tonight. That large batch of rain was holding up severe weather but now it's lifting to the north and in return we should see more supercells begin to develop. Does anyone know when the next SPC update is?
You might want to watch the SPC mesoscale discussion page for a timely head's up. If you are not under a tornado or severe t-storm watch yet, a mesoscale discussion for your geographic area will give you a head's up before SPC issues the watch. SPC periodically issues a mesoscale discussion update related to each active watch. Even if you don't understand the discussion part, the map and the summary will give you good info.
Image below is a link to SPC mesoscale discussion page where you can access individual discussions in effect for your geographic area (when one or more has/have been issued).
I am heading home to secure the property and homestead for the overnight hours where I am located North of Tallahassee.

Please be safe and this one is no joke; potentially the equivalent of 70 mph straight line gusts compounded by potential tornadoes overnight so take this seriously. Hope to check in with everyone tomorrow morning assuming I can get to work.................................... :)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
427 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 500 PM CST  
 
* AT 426 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MADISONVILLE...OR 14 MILES  
SOUTHWEST OF COVINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
MADISONVILLE AROUND 440 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3038 9002 3036 9008 3037 9010 3037 9012  
3039 9020 3038 9022 3035 9026 3030 9030  
3030 9035 3028 9037 3029 9040 3031 9042  
3047 9022  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 231DEG 44KT 3033 9029  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
MJH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page
Keep your eyes peeled and stay safe, everyone!!!

From the last Charleston, SC NWS discussion: Currently under a TORCON of 5. If these storms hold up overnight, I expect Dr. Forbes to raise that for this area.

WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE STRONG
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE PLENTIFUL INCLUDING STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND STRONG JET
FORCING THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 300 MB JET ALIGNED ALONG THE GULF
COAST. FIRST...LETS FOCUS ON TIMING. THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES SOMEWHERE IN THE 7-9
AM TIME PERIOD. IT SHOULD THEN STEADILY PUSH EASTWARD...EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA AND ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE 1-3 PM TIME
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY GOOD IN THAT TIMING...THOUGH MUCH
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW THE CONVECTIVE LINE DOES TONIGHT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS YET ANOTHER
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE EVENT FOR THE REGION. THE AMBIENT WIND FIELD IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 925 MB WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT...0-3 KM
SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 50 KT...AND SUFFICIENT VEERING TO PRODUCE HELICITY
VALUES INTO THE 500-700 RANGE (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL). IN
FACT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VERY NICELY BACKED SUCH THAT THE
PREVAILING SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE OUT OF 160 OR SO. THE ONLY
NEGATING FACTOR THAT COMES WITH SUCH A BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW IS THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A NON-TRIVIAL MARINE LAYER THAT IS ADVECTED
INLAND. THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER AND ITS INLAND PENETRATION WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS IT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT
IN SOME AREAS. AWAY FROM THIS LAYER...ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO GET
500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE EAST
WHERE THE LINE WILL COME THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT LINEAR
SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHERE
THE HIGHEST POCKETS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THE HIGH DEGREE OF VEERING
IN THE COLUMN AND HIGH SRH VALUES RESULT IN A RELATIVELY DECENT
TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. REGARDING AREAS MOST AT RISK...THE EVOLUTION
AND MODIFICATION OF THE ADVECTING MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE
HIGHEST RISK INLAND OF HW-17.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
431 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CST  
 
* AT 431 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAXIE...OR 11 MILES WEST  
OF WIGGINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
MAXIE AND ROCK HILL AROUND 440 PM CST.  
BROOKLYN AROUND 445 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
107. Tcwx2
Thank you but what I was asking is when the next convective outlooks will be. Just wondering to see if the moderate risk is upgraded to a high. Thanks a lot though.
Quoting 101. Barefootontherocks:

You might want to watch the SPC mesoscale discussion page for a timely head's up. If you are not under a tornado or severe t-storm watch yet, a mesoscale discussion for your geographic area will give you a head's up before SPC issues the watch. SPC periodically issues a mesoscale discussion update related to each active watch. Even if you don't understand the discussion part, the map and the summary will give you good info.
Image below is a link to SPC mesoscale discussion page where you can access individual discussions in effect for your geographic area (when one or more has/have been issued).

Debris being reported in Hattiesburg on TWC.
313  
WFUS54 KLIX 232234  
TORLIX  
LAC095-232300-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0037.160223T2234Z-160223T2300Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
434 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 500 PM CST  
 
* AT 434 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LAPLACE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU  
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...AS A LAST RESORT...EITHER  
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN  
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3024 9037 3018 9043 3011 9043 3008 9040  
3008 9041 3004 9045 3003 9050 3013 9054  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 242DEG 44KT 3010 9047  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page
 
Using my system,watching the cell coming ashore near Morgan City as it has a 504 area code addy ping.






Confirmed Tornado near Laplace, NWS.

Bunking in.

That threshold Cane sound was the one to get my attention as the winds are really mixing down.

See yas on the other side tonight.

Good luck, be ready, be aware.

Quoting 113. Patrap:

Bunking in.

That threshold Cane sound was the one to get my attention as the winds are really mixing down.

See yas on the other side tonight.

Good luck, be ready, be aware.




Stay safe, Pat.
115. MahFL
On the live blog the link to webcams does not go to webcams.
Quoting 114. nash36:



Stay safe, Pat.


watching the cell just south of Gulfport. Looks to come ashore near Pascagoula, MS. History of tornado warning in LA. Has that look to it

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Tania Dall

@taniadall

#Breaking: Manager at Sugar Hill RV Park in Convent La, confirms at least 100 trailers damaged b/c of storm;
Many people seriously hurt.


WWLTV New Orleans
The nado struck at 3:40 pm during a warned cell at the time.

They are the St. James Parish seat.

It has a pop of 1000.

The first images are devastating.
And we've only just begun, scary thought, this now ramps up through evening. Could be looking at one of the worst night outbreaks in a long time. Stay safe. Hope New Orleans skirts em Pat. Seems it's often a close call for your fair city.
Nola is still under that PDS Watch till 10pm, Kener, Uptown, and down to Grand Isle have all been impacted as well as west, North and Neast of us.

We may be seeing more as the danger will continue thru tonight when darkness makes it much harder to respond. I advise everyone to be alert, check on the elderly, neighbors and those without shelter, shelter them.
Many homes damaged in Laplace,injuries,,....the Jail was struck as well.

Were looking at a developing MCI event tonight I fear.
Ryan Moore ‏@RyanMooreMS 1h1 hour ago
BREAKING: Destroyed trailer on Sones Road in Lamar County. 1 fatality confirmed by coroner.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
526 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM CST  
 
* AT 526 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEAKESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
STATE LINE AND BUCKATUNNA AROUND 550 PM CST.  
MILLRY AROUND 605 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
Quoting 68. Patrap:




At 16:00, near Bogalusa (sp?), ouch
Presslord from Portlight is on the situ via FB and is co ordinating some Red Cross shelters.

Laplace, Convent..and other areas have taken serious damage from the tornadoes and the State is mobilizing a push as they gather info thru the evening.

Help where you can if need is there, hinder not by gawking ,sightseeing. Conditions remain dangerous .



My sister posted a picture of herself hiding in a closet with a hard hat on. Must be bad in Mandaville today.
Texas Power Companies are mobilizing crews to roll in behind the system first light
CLECO reporting outages in Lacombe.
Trailers damaged, serious injuries as suspected tornado rips Convent
WWLTV.com, WWLTV 5:14 p.m. CST February 23, 2016

CONVENT, La. - A suspected tornado slammed into a trailer park in Sugar Hill RV park near Convent, Louisiana damaging dozens of trailers and leaving several people seriously injured.

The tornado struck around 4 p.m.

The suspected tornado was part of a line of strong storms that slammed through southeast Louisiana Tuesday afternoon.

According to the St. James Parish office of emergency preparedness, emergency crews are on the scene assessing damage and injuries.

Eyewitness News has a crew headed to the scene and will update the story as more information becomes available.
That same cell is just northwest of Pascagoula. COntinues to improve in structure. Latest pass by radar shows rotation developing. Hurley and Wade are in the path of this storm.

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
136. vis0
AMATEUR OPINION NOT A REAL FORECAST
(since yesterday watches & warnings for severe have been hoisted)

The cells coming over the mouth of the Mississippi River from GoMx (Gulf Of Mexico) joining with the outflow from Patraps area(s) would seem to focus it harshness BEGINNING just west of south central Alabama. "Radar the dog"  might start late in his nervous dance but when he starts i have a feeling it'll be super hyper. 

Everyone checked NOAA radio

Batteries

Have the code word so family knows this is a real emergency when anyone (preferably parents) says that word it in the house and all know where to go STRAIGHT TO none of that where my favorite shoes, fishing pole crap its your life that you are going to protect no some 200 dollar thing that can be easily replaced.



AMATEUR OPINION NOT A REAL FORECAST
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 544 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 544 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 544 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 542 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
why is this not tornado warned yet????

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
The NWS deserves a lot of credit, especially the New Orleans office. They're having to issue a ton of warnings, including tornado warnings which cover their own office, so I'm sure they're having to take their own safety precautions. In addition, the KLIX radar was apparently hit by lightning and taken out of service, which makes it quite a bit harder to monitor some of these storms. Unfortunately as we've seen damage is often unavoidable; I hope everyone continues taking necessary precautions tonight. Tomorrow looks pretty dangerous as well.
Trailers damaged, serious injuries as suspected tornado rips Convent

NOAA,NWS NOLA, SPC and all the supporting roles and folks are doing a excelent job under stressful conditions and will continue thru tonight,

Many thanks to them for their dedication and service to us all.

Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 554 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 550 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 544 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 544 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 544 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 542 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
oh wow, did the radar just go down?!?
NWS radar Slidell went down in that warned cell awhile ago.


meanwhile...Winter Storm Garak has been named

NWS Reports One fatality in Convent from the storm there earlier.

Emg Mgt, on scene
Very vivid Western Horizon with lightening as the line closes in from the west. Radar is das kaput an the Mobile,Ala.radar is too far away to see the line

Were in a dead zone. Calm, eerie....with the thunder closing fast.

College of DuPage Meteorology
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 606 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 559 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 558 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 558 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 558 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 554 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 550 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Take care Patrap...sitting here I'm Mobile watching and waiting.
152. vis0
DO NOT READ NOW IF IN STORM AREAS OR NEAR BY | you're in watches or warnings LISTEN TO NOAA RADIO

NOT A LIVE SAT LINK this is a capture go to  Wxundergrounds pages its LIVE BLOG but if those are busy then here the latest in this type of imagery::
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/im ages/latest/goes-west_goes-east/goes-east_4km_shor twave_albedo.gif  


(apology if re-posted clicked 4 mins ago refreshed saw nothing) Getting more and more mini gusts near my ESE facing window.
 i know i'm in NYC but for those that read my old blog (DO NOT READ NOW IF IN STORM AREAS OR NEAR BY | you're in watches or warnings) explained how hours later those mini gusts (2 secs of 40-50 mph) that really rattle my window are transferred throughout a certain AOI that reaches even further than tonight's activities in the S/SE, so i'm concerned (as SPC is) for surprise strong wind motions.
Quoting 99. Alagirl:

It was east, opposite a bright sun. The barometer reading is from WU, not sure where they get it from.
I don't know where it comes from either. Seems like an uncorrected for sea level reading. I have no rain at all. The storms that have formed have all gone west of me so no chance for a rainbow. We're moving into a pretty good dry slot now so nothing on the radar for us immediately. Radar Dog is getting slightly nervous, so he knows something is up. I expect it will still be at least four hours before we see any significant storms.
Quoting 107. Tcwx2:

Thank you but what I was asking is when the next convective outlooks will be. Just wondering to see if the moderate risk is upgraded to a high. Thanks a lot though.
I understood what you were asking. I hoped what I posted would inform you and other readers (if you/they did not know)...
~Once an event begins to evolve, the synoptic scale (larger picture) given the convective outlooks will delineate what and where is the risk, where it's going tomorrow, etc.
~The MCDs (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) give a far better look at what is going on in the moment - and where it's soon headed.

Learning about these storms and how they behave, or just following for your own protection because they are in or will soon be in your area, SPC's MCDs are where it's at close to and during a severe outbreak.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 610 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 148. Sfloridacat5:




That is a monster supercell south of Mobile, looks like it might put Pensacola under the gun.
Quoting 144. watchingnva:

oh wow, did the radar just go down?!?
You can check radar status HERE. Shows New Orleans radar down for the last hour or so but there's no further information. From what I've heard, it was struck by lightning. It's not clear to me why these radars cannot be better grounded to survive a lightning strike.
977mb?
Quoting 156. Jedkins01:



That is a monster supercell south of Mobile, looks like it might put Pensacola under the gun.
The storms coming in from the Gulf pretty much die when they hit land. They seem to reform north of Montgomery toward Birmingham but, so far, no severe storms have come in from that blob south of Mobile, which keep training the storms from the Gulf to the Panhandle.
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TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 625 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Things could certainly change in a hurry, but right now the ingredients just don't seem to be coming together the way they were expecting/fearing in SE MS and SW AL. Storm mode is just too messy for cells to take advantage of outrageous helicities. If current trends continue, looks like everyone but SE Lousiana may have dodged a bullet on this one.
You can really see how all the lightning in the Gulf just quits when it gets over land. I'm not sure what's causing this.

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TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 629 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Ps. Individual severe watches delineate the risk levels for each type of severe at the time the watch is issued..

As with this NEW Tornado Watch for central Alabama.
Am concerned about the eml(elevated mixed layer) advecting in from the Mexican plateau by the jet that models have been showing. Much steeper mid level lapse rates are advecting towards the northern gulf coast and the FL panhandle for tonight:



TWC (Dr. Forbes) just said the strongest rotation is offshore south of Pensacola. Yikes!
Dr. Forbes showed the cell offshore of Prnsacola, it's nasty.
Quoting 170. win1gamegiantsplease:

Dr. Forbes showed the cell offshore of Prnsacola, it's nasty.


Indeed
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SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 635 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 631 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 162. FlyingScotsman:

Things could certainly change in a hurry, but right now the ingredients just don't seem to be coming together the way they were expecting/fearing in SE MS and SW AL. Storm mode is just too messy for cells to take advantage of outrageous helicities. If current trends continue, looks like everyone but SE Lousiana may have dodged a bullet on this one.
I'd sure like to think that's what will happen. Unfortunately, the surface map is showing a broad trough of 997-998mb low pressure, and that will deepen over the next six hours. It's these lows interacting with the jet streak that will set off the severe cells. This is not going to be a classic squall line where it's all over in a half hour. I think we'll get many discrete cells form and follow the general track of previous storms. It's the people under these tracks that are at the greatest risk. That moves east into southeast Alabama later tonight. There's enough energy associate with this trough to bring the storm line this way by midnight or so. I can only hope I'm not under one of those training tracks.

.5 degree Storm Relative Velocity

Quoting 166. Jedkins01:

Am concerned about the eml(elevated mixed layer) advecting in from the Mexican plateau by the jet that models have been showing. Much steeper mid level lapse rates are advecting towards the northern gulf coast and the FL panhandle for tonight:




Yeah, the EML is what BMX has been worried about for the last three days. They have done a good job so far, identifying the severe weather threat long before the SPC had it on their map. I'm just afraid this is going to look like nothing happen only to get a big blowup of supercells with very little warning. Radar Dog is still dozing on his doggy mattress, so he's not too concerned yet. We'll see.
Unbelievable imagery from the GOES-14. 1 minute satellite refresh rate. Look at the difference between the motion of the low level scud ahead of the front and the tops of the supercells. Yikes.



This would be a sight to see.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA / SRN MS / SWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21...

VALID 232318Z - 240115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 21 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS SERN LA/SRN MS AND MOVING INTO SWRN AL.


DISCUSSION... VERY RAPID INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE ENLARGEMENT OF THE HODOGRAPH IS EVIDENT FROM KMOB VAD DATA DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS /300 M2 PER S2 TO 700 M2 PER S2 0-3 KM SRH/. THIS INCREASE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH 1-2 MB PER HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG MID-LEVEL DCVA OVERSPREADS THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS ALSO PLACES A DUAL MESOLOW STRUCTURE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS SRN MS AND SERN LA. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND PROFILE...EXPECTING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREAS WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS. IF SEMI-DISCRETE UPDRAFTS CAN EVOLVE ON THE SRN PORTION OF THE LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...A HIGHER-END CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL FOR A CYCLIC TORNADIC SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

..SMITH.. 02/23/2016
Quoting 177. hurricanehunter27:



This would be a sight to see.


If that holds up once it gets on shore, look out!
Quoting 173. sar2401:

I'd sure like to think that's what will happen. Unfortunately, the surface map is showing a broad trough of 997-998mb low pressure, and that will deepen over the next six hours. It's these lows interacting with the jet streak that will set off the severe cells. This is not going to be a classic squall line where it's all over in a half hour. I think we'll get many discrete cells form and follow the general track of previous storms. It's the people under these tracks that are at the greatest risk. That moves east into southeast Alabama later tonight. There's enough energy associate with this trough to bring the storm line this way by midnight or so. I can only hope I'm not under one of those training tracks.



Perhaps, but I'm not seeing it on the HRRR at least, which is showing the storms clearing the Mobile area in under three hours, with messy storm mode continuing to predominate. Could be a different story with areas east of Mobile, though. The cell offshore Pensacola certainly looks like it means business.
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 656 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 650 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 650 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
The squall line just came thru here in Metairie near the Bonnabel Boat Launch. Was torrential rains, maybe 2 inches fell easily in 25 minutes.


Was blowing like a TS easily there for a few minutes.




Patrap, any recommended HAM resources in the Greater New Orleans area to monitor during severe weather/emergencies? Just moved to Metarie last Feb. Seen you post on here before about this i think...

Still dumping here south of I-10 off Causeway.

Thanks
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southeastern Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama...
south central Escambia County in northwestern Florida...

* until 815 PM CST

* at 712 PM CST... a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
8 miles south of Gulf Shores... moving northeast at 40 mph.

This is a particularly dangerous situation.

Hazard... damaging tornado.

Source... radar indicated rotation.

Impact... you are in a life threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes...
businesses... and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
Foley around 725 PM CST.
Pensacola and Orange Beach around 735 PM CST.
Perdido Beach around 740 PM CST.
Johnsons Beach around 745 PM CST.
Lillian around 750 PM CST.
Bellview... Myrtle Grove and West Pensacola around 800 PM CST.
Brent and Goulding around 805 PM CST.
Gonzalez... Ensley... Ferry Pass and Pensacola international Airport
around 810 PM CST.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

To repeat... a large... extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life... take cover now! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors... in a Mobile home... or in
a vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 3072 8730 3063 8724 3061 8726 3051 8716
3046 8716 3037 8727 3037 8728 3036 8730
3032 8736 3032 8734 3031 8735 3032 8739
3031 8739 3031 8738 3024 8776
time... Mot... loc 0112z 223deg 36kt 3013 8774

Tornado... radar indicated
tornado damage threat... considerable
hail... 1.00in
The waterspout in the Gulf is crazy; feels more like tracking in a hurricane as it approaches shore. A PDS tornado warning was just issued in advance of "landfall".
Well the offshore Pensacola storm is about to make landfall or has already made landfall near Orange Beach/Perdido key. It looks like the storm will graze the northwestern suburbs of Pensacola.
We'll see how land interaction affects the cell/spout, but Orange Beach to Pensacola Beach looks to be under the gun.
MCD 132 issued at 6:51 pm cdt addresses the "landfalling supercell"...
SURFACE CONDITIONS INVOF THE SUPERCELL VIA BUOY AND LAND OBSERVATIONS /NEAR 70 TEMP WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINT/ SUGGEST THIS SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY REMAIN SURFACE-BASED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS VIA MODEL-BASED PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NOW EVIDENT ON THE KMOB VAD /0-3 KM SRH AROUND 600 M2 PER S2/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED CYCLING OF THE SUPERCELL AS IT MOVES ASHORE THE AL/FL BORDER VICINITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

..SMITH.. 02/24/2016
Man this storm feels like a hurricane. Ironic thing is the storm is bigger than some hurricanes.
I get a bad feeling that as soon as this storm gets on shore we are going to see a drop in CC.
I'm in Pensacola. Winds have stopped and it's oddly still outside.
Props to Jedkins for spotting this supercell's potential early on!
Quoting 191. win1gamegiantsplease:

We'll see how land interaction affects the cell/spout, but Orange Beach to Pensacola Beach looks to be under the gun.


Greg Forbes says the signature has weakened just a little bit. Still a nasty storm.
I'm not convinced the tornado has lifted, but rotation has weakened a lot. Could cycle though. Still, looks like the coast is dodging a bullet for now (at least for the worst case scenario).
Flooded the garage here with 3 inches of water as anything not on a Palate, is wet.


Lordy. And the grade is up to garage floor lip outside uphill.


Hurlo Man gets the shop vac voom'.

Lucky all Im doing as many lost a lot today.
201. Tcwx2
Winds gusting 30-40mph and it's not even close to us yet!!! This has a very scary feel to it.
Everyone in the path of these storms--TAKE COVER NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 739 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 729 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 725 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 724 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 723 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 720 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 717 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 714 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 713 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
The track of this storm looks like it will go right thorough the main residential areas of the Pensacola. Avoiding downtown but going through west Pensacola and Brent.
Wondering if the folks in Tallahassee NWC are asleep. No watches posted as this blob moves into western Geneva county, not to mention the Ft. Walton area. Thanks ya'll for keeping us updated!
Be advised, Do not take this one lightly in any sense.

The Storm is evolving and will continue to produce severe weather tonight and tomorrow.

Keep your NOAA Battery Backed Up Alert Weather Radio near and with a good volume overnight.







Quoting 204. Geoboy645:

The track of this storm looks like it will go right thorough the main residential areas of the Pensacola. Avoiding downtown but going through west Pensacola and Brent.

I'm in Brent! Lightning is really ramping up now as we're getting the beginning of this cell.
Evening all .... looks pretty nasty over your way, LA/MI/AL/FL ..... ya'll stay safe!

Watching from the southeast .....
I don't think anything is on the ground atm. Time to see if this storm cycles and maintains its intensity over land.
Quoting 206. Patrap:

Be advised, Do not take this one lightly in any sense.

The Storm is evolving and will continue to produce severe weather tonight and tomorrow.

Keep your NOAA Battery Backed Up Alert Weather Radio near and with a good volume overnight.










Very sound advice. Definitely has our attention for tomorrow in the Charleston area.
PUREET1948 HAS NOT LOST POWER----yet!
Quoting 205. SassyBamaRebel:

Wondering if the folks in Tallahassee NWC are asleep. No watches posted as this blob moves into western Geneva county, not to mention the Ft. Walton area. Thanks ya'll for keeping us updated!


I thought Mobile did the Pensacola area, though I don't live there so don't take my word for it
Quoting 206. Patrap:

Be advised, Do not take this one lightly in any sense.

The Storm is evolving and will continue to produce severe weather tonight and tomorrow.

Keep your NOAA Battery Backed Up Alert Weather Radio near and with a good volume overnight.










Good volume? Didn't think they had a version where you can change the volume of the alarm. Mine just has one setting: Jump through the ceiling loud. I can hear it all the way downstairs where my AC unit is, while the AC unit is running. :)

I can change the volume of the announcement though. :D
Quoting 116. Patrap:






Ditto
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Quoting 210. hurricanehunter27:

I don't think anything is on the ground atm. Time to see if this storm cycles and maintains its intensity over land.


The cell is still strong but the shear signature weakened dramatically before moving onshore which is good news.
Uh oh looks like on the radar it has a tvs again.
This image should update as reports come in.
Quoting 205. SassyBamaRebel:

Wondering if the folks in Tallahassee NWC are asleep. No watches posted as this blob moves into western Geneva county, not to mention the Ft. Walton area. Thanks ya'll for keeping us updated!
Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK posted a Tornado Watch mid-afternoon that included two FL counties and nowincludes three Florida counties - Escambia, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa. Not sure about Geneva County. Do you mean Geneva County in Alabama? It doesn't seem to be in the path of this cell.

NWS Tallahassee will issue warnings if/when severe weather enters their forecast area.
739  
WFUS54 KMOB 240205  
TORMOB  
FLC091-113-240230-  
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0022.160224T0205Z-160224T0230Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
805 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...  
OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 830 PM CST  
 
* AT 805 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLLEY...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF  
WRIGHT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3041 8682 3053 8696 3087 8663 3067 8641  
3040 8680  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 226DEG 32KT 3053 8682  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
BUTTS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab AL Page

Quoting 215. win1gamegiantsplease:



I thought Mobile did the Pensacola area, though I don't live there so don't take my word for it
They Do
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SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 809 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 219. Jedkins01:



The cell is still strong but the shear signature weakened dramatically before moving onshore which is good news.


Hey Jed, what are your thoughts for Tampa? I was watching Dennis Phillips live on Facebook and he is downplaying it for us (he's usually pretty aggressive)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
812 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...  
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 845 PM CST  
 
* AT 811 PM CST...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
OVER FERRY PASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS  
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE  
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...  
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE  
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
MULAT AND FLORIDATOWN AROUND 815 PM CST.  
PACE AND PEA RIDGE AROUND 820 PM CST.  
MILTON AND BAGDAD AROUND 825 PM CST.  
ROEVILLE...WHITING FIELD AND POINT BAKER AROUND 830 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY  
TORNADO IS DEVELOPING. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO  
A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN  
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!  
 

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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 812 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 214. pureet1948:

PUREET1948 HAS NOT LOST POWER----yet!

Rest assured, we will not loose hope.
Thanks barefoot. While Geneva county isn't in the path of this particular cell, just thinking a "heads up" from Hassee would be the thing to do.
There you go SassyBama. There's your tornado watch...
Click image for details.
It is just hard to watch the Weather Channel what a shame at on time it was so good. Thank God for computers.
Is it just me, or does it appear that the most severe elements are shifting south as time goes on?
I was right smack dab in the middle of the warned area... No issues here tho. Thank God!
Quoting 230. SassyBamaRebel:

Thanks barefoot. While Geneva county isn't in the path of this particular cell, just thinking a "heads up" from Hassee would be the thing to do.
Please note the SPC issues watches. The SPC is the head's up for risk until storms are imminent. NWS Tallahassee home page on net has likely been posting info about severe potential on their homepage and
in social media and will issue warnings in their forecast area when they are warranted.

Twitter is one of the best sources for current NWS local office info.
Dats one long list today and tonight

Dupage Severe Weather Warnings Page
Quoting 233. nash36:

Is it just me, or does it appear that the most severe elements are shifting south as time goes on?


Yeah it looks to me like the worst will be shifting into SE Alabama and the Florida panhandle. The convective complex near the Florida panhandle is beginning to steal inflow from convection further north. Cells further north are as a whole weakening in response so far.
Ok we got a report now of a tornado on the I10 bridge. Watching a live stream of the local news and they just a got a report of a car possibly blown off the bridge.
Tornado just north of Ferry Pass should cross the bay headed toward Pace, Fl.
Quoting 239. Geoboy645:

Ok we got a report now of a tornado on the I10 bridge. Watching a live stream of the local news and they just a got a report of a car possibly blown off the bridge.


Hopefully not, anyone that gets blown off the bridge in their car will probably die.
Quoting 239. Geoboy645:

Ok we got a report now of a tornado on the I10 bridge. Watching a live stream of the local news and they just a got a report of a car possibly blown off the bridge.


Oh that's horrific if it is indeed true.
Shelters available to wait out storms
From staff reports, pnj.com 7:07 p.m. CST February 23, 2016


Jason Beaman, warning coordination meteorologist for National Weather Service in Mobile, recommended seeking shelter in a sturdy structure, particularly if living in a mobile home.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a tornado watch for the area through 10 p.m.

The American Red Cross opened an evacuation shelter at 5 p.m. at the Pensacola State College building/old Century Middle School, 520 E. Hecker Road in Century.

The Salvation Army Headquarters, 1501 N. Q St., is available as a shelter, too.

Nws confirmed tornado around Pace heading to Milton.
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 830 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 819 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 814 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 812 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 812 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 809 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 805 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 230. SassyBamaRebel:

Thanks barefoot. While Geneva county isn't in the path of this particular cell, just thinking a "heads up" from Hassee would be the thing to do.
I'm not so sure Geneva County is not in the path of this cell. Depends on how it tracks and how long it continues cycling and surface-based. Even if the rotation lifts off surface, you might/could still get severe hail up there - if that's where you are.
Quoting 238. Jedkins01:



Yeah it looks to me like the worst will be shifting into SE Alabama and the Florida panhandle. The convective complex near the Florida panhandle is beginning to steal inflow from convection further north. Cells further north are as a whole weakening in response so far.
At least for now, things are looking up in eastern MS and west central AL. The rain shield from all the storms has weakened the instability, and the convection on the coast is indeed cutting off some of the Gulf inflow. Whatever's left will finally get to me over here in SE AL around midnight. Don't be deceived however. Another round of storms will start later tonight as the cold front moves through. These have the potential to be better organized and produce more tornadoes. Thankfully, I've gotten off easy so far. While Montgomery has gotten over three inches of rain in the past two days. I've only had a little drizzle. We'll see how well my luck holds up over the next six hours or so.
Quoting 248. sar2401:

At least for now, things are looking up in eastern MS and west central AL. The rain shield from all the storms has weakened the instability, and the conviction on the coast is indeed cutting off some of the Gulf inflow. Whatever's left will finally get to me over here in SE AL around midnight. Don't be deceived however. Another round of storms will start later tonight as the cold front moves through. These have the potential to be better organized and produce more tornadoes. Thankfully, I've gotten off easy so far. While Montgomery has gotten over three inches of rain in the past two days. I've only had a little drizzle. We'll see how well my luck holds up over the next six hours or so.

This is what concerns us here in SE SC for late morning tomorrow. Stay safe tonight!
Quoting 234. PensacolaDoug:

I was right smack dab in the middle of the warned area... No issues here tho. Thank God!

I was in the middle of it too but we did get something. I watched out the window on the 5th floor as the part of the storm that had the potential tornado approached (planning of course to move before it hit). With the lightning, I could see somewhat of a shelf cloud approaching with clouds moving really fast near it and almost continuous blue-green lightning underneath which was kind of unsettling. The wind started picking up (in stark contrast to the stillness right before). This got my attention and I moved downstairs to the first floor then the rain got really heavy and very strong winds. Saw a distinct bright blue flash almost like from a transformer. The rain was so hard it was hard to see what exactly was going on outside. It was exactly the conditions I've seen on storm footage when a rain wrapped tornado is close by or even there. Those conditions last about a minute or 2 then leveled off pretty quickly. From the look of the radar, it seemed like it had weakened when it moved off the Gulf, but then strengthen seemingly right as it moved through the middle of Pensacola.
Thanks, Barefoot! Am indeed in south eastern Geneva county, Al. Starting to come in now, Mattie dog is starting to pace.
124  
WFUS54 KMOB 240239  
TORMOB  
FLC091-240315-  
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0024.160224T0239Z-160224T0315Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
839 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 915 PM CST  
 
* AT 839 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR CRESTVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
NORTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3061 8654 3077 8665 3093 8639 3067 8639  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 226DEG 32KT 3075 8651  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
To whoever had storms today, are you guys alright? :)
Quoting 241. Jedkins01:



Hopefully not, anyone that gets blown off the bridge in their car will probably die.


I agree with that analysis.

Sorry had to lighten up the mood.

Quoting 234. PensacolaDoug:

I was right smack dab in the middle of the warned area... No issues here tho. Thank God!


Good to hear, keep eyes open overnight. Looks like my worries tomorrow will be when the suns out and (likely) not sleeping.
Looking at Jeff Piotrowski's twitter, apparently there was a confirmed touchdown in Pcola going toward Milton. Supposed report of it hitting the I-10 bridge.
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SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 845 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 843 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Whoa! Winds are picking up here in Mobile..something is going on..sounded like something passed over my house causing the whole roof to shutter. .but no rain and no warnings.
Reports of Townhouses in the scenic highway area flattened.
Quoting 262. AllyBama:

Whoa! Winds are picking up here in Mobile..something is going on..sounded like something passed over my house causing the whole roof to shutter. .but no rain and no warnings.


The winds aloft behind the squall line are coming down to the surface from around 3 k ft. We have a Wind Advisory here in Se. La till 6am.
Hearing of an apartment complex hit and cars blown off I-10 in Pensacola.
Quoting 252. SassyBamaRebel:

Thanks, Barefoot! Am indeed in south eastern Geneva county, Al. Starting to come in now, Mattie dog is starting to pace.
SassyBama,
YW, Mattie and you.

Have a good night, everyone. And always be safe, and stay safe. And by that I mean...
Weather update: Tornado tears up I-10 near Scenic
Kevin Robinson and Thomas St. Myer, tstmyer@pnj.com 9 p.m. CST February 23, 2016

Update: 8:52 p.m.:

Escambia County is confirming tornado activity near 9th Avenue and Scenic. There are multiple reports of damage, and the county has resources on the scene.

Neighbors report extensive damage at the Northpoint subdivision at Ninth and Olive including trailers smashed, metal power poles down and light poles ripped apart. Emergency crews are staging at the shopping center at Ninth Avenue and Olive Road.

Emergency crews are also responding to reports of a confirmed entrapment near Scenic Highway.

Lots of tree damage on sceneic north of the interstate to U.S. 90.

Update: 8:44 p.m.:

A car is blown of the interstate one mile west of Ynestra on 1-10, trees are blocking one lane of highway.

Trees are blocking lane of highway.

Quoting 263. Geoboy645:

Reports of Townhouses in the scenic highway area flattened.
Quoting 266. AllyBama:

Hearing of an apartment complex hit and cars blown off I-10 in Pensacola.
Carp!
New tornado warning north of niceville
Wow that validation thing was annoying.

Sitting here in central NC. Should be interesting tomorrow. Stay safe for those in the path tonight. Scary situation!
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 909 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 909 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
3 buildings in the moorings subdivision destroyed. 6 injuries reporetd too. Not good right now in that area.
*the morrings apartment complex sorry.
275. Tcwx2
How do you guys think about my chance for severe weather for the rest of the night in Andaluisa, AL?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL...ERN AL AND WRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 22...23...

VALID 240314Z - 240400Z

CORRECTED WORDING IN SUMMARY

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 22...23...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK TORNADOES...PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM WESTERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER AREA THROUGH 05-06Z (11pm to midnight central). AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS AREAS OF GEORGIA TO THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 23 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME EXTENSIVE WITHIN THE RELATIVELY NARROW WARM/MOIST SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. IMPACTS ON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER THROUGH 03-06Z...REMAIN UNCLEAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...COINCIDING WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR A 50-70 SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AT LEAST CONDUCIVE TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR AN ADDITIONAL STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR.. 02/24/2016

Officials have confirmed three buildings at The Moore Apartments on Old Spanish Road have suffered damage. Six people have reported injuries and crews on scene are performing search and rescue as needed.

There also is reports of damage at Yacht Harbour Subdivision.

UPDATE 9:15 p.m.

About a dozen emergency vehicles are staged outside The Moorings apartments on Old Spanish Trail Road where the top floor of an apartment complex is destroyed. The bottom floor is still standing. Neighbors report a heavy smell of gas.

Quoting 268. Patrap:

Weather update: Tornado tears up I-10 near Scenic
Kevin Robinson and Thomas St. Myer, tstmyer@pnj.com 9 p.m. CST February 23, 2016

Update: 8:52 p.m.:

Escambia County is confirming tornado activity near 9th Avenue and Scenic. There are multiple reports of damage, and the county has resources on the scene.

Neighbors report extensive damage at the Northpoint subdivision at Ninth and Olive including trailers smashed, metal power poles down and light poles ripped apart. Emergency crews are staging at the shopping center at Ninth Avenue and Olive Road.

Emergency crews are also responding to reports of a confirmed entrapment near Scenic Highway.

Lots of tree damage on sceneic north of the interstate to U.S. 90.

Update: 8:44 p.m.:

A car is blown of the interstate one mile west of Ynestra on 1-10, trees are blocking one lane of highway.

Trees are blocking lane of highway.




Not good...
UPDATE 9:20 p.m.: 

Officials have confirmed three buildings at The Moore Apartments on Old Spanish Road have suffered damage. Six people have reported injuries and crews on scene are performing search and rescue as needed.

There also is reports of damage at Yacht Harbour Subdivision.

Also, in Santa Rosa ... From the Florida Department of Transportation: Westbound I-10 closed at Mile Marker 20 due to an overturned semi. Use alternate routes.
Quoting 275. Tcwx2:

How do you guys think about my chance for severe weather for the rest of the night in Andaluisa, AL?
Are you in a tornado watch area?
Quoting 275. Tcwx2:

How do you guys think about my chance for severe weather for the rest of the night in Andaluisa, AL?
You are in the Tornado Watch area. Keep an eye on the warnings - what direction the storms with warnings are coming from. And the radar arrows. Do you know how to watch radar? Looks right now like most of the storms are to your southeast, Weather is heading toward Geneva.
My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you confined to iron lungs
SBCAPE of 1892j/kg coupled with Sfc-6km shear of 88kt, resulting in Sfc-3km SRH of 639m2/s2 by 21z tomorrow afternoon in Raleigh. No biggie...

Soundings like this are a rare breed across North Carolina. Don't want to see the result of a sustained supercell in this kind of an environment.

286. Tcwx2
What I meant was do you think the line segments are capable of producing tornadoes or damaging winds or are they just rain? They don't look too impressive.
UPDATE 9:37 p.m.:

Madeline Santiago & Lee Sheffield were in Apt. 43D at The Moorings when the apparent tornado hit.

"We were watching TV and the lights blinked three times," Santiago said. "We heard a train noise and a bunch of hollering. We didn't know it was coming."

The top floor of their apartment building is rubble, and downstairs is severely damaged, but Santiago said she and the neighbors she knows made it out safe. But the couple is now homeless.

"I don't have nowhere to go," Santiago said, weeping. I don't have my apartment anymore."

www.pnj.com/story/news
Happens every time....

Gotta love The Weather Channel. It's almost as if our state doesn't exist. Dillingham just said there could be several discrete cells rolling though Charlotte, Raleigh....and FLORIDA!

Ummm....This system has to roll through SC as well. Sometimes I believe we could have a TORCON of 10, and somehow, it would fail to get mentioned. Now, I do understand that most storms die once they hit that I-95/I-26 graveyard, but geez.
Quoting 288. Patrap:

UPDATE 9:37 p.m.:

Madeline Santiago & Lee Sheffield were in Apt. 43D at The Moorings when the apparent tornado hit.

"We were watching TV and the lights blinked three times," Santiago said. "We heard a train noise and a bunch of hollering. We didn't know it was coming."

The top floor of their apartment building is rubble, and downstairs is severely damaged, but Santiago said she and the neighbors she knows made it out safe. But the couple is now homeless.

"I don't have nowhere to go," Santiago said, weeping. I don't have my apartment anymore."

www.pnj.com/story/news


Awful :-(
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 945 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 932 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 929 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 286. Tcwx2:

What I meant was do you think the line segments are capable of producing tornadoes or damaging winds or are they just rain? They don't look too impressive.
In the near term, it looks like the storms in the Gulf have cut off a lot of the instability we had earlier. The only severe storms are east of you, and nothing severe looks imminent in the Andalusia area. This does not mean it's the all clear though. The cold front still has to come through. If the storms in the Gulf start to move further east or start to die off, that could set us up for a better chance of severe weather after midnight. We can only see what happens as the front moves through west of us.
293. Tcwx2
Thank you. It's so cool outside that it's hard for me to imangine anything really bad developing.
Quoting 292. sar2401:

In the near term, it looks like the storms in the Gulf have cut off a lot of the instability we had earlier. The only severe storms are east of you, and nothing severe looks imminent in the Andalusia area. This does not mean it's the all clear though. The cold front still has to come through. If the storms in the Gulf start to move further east or start to die off, that could set us up for a better chance of severe weather after midnight. We can only see what happens as the front moves through west of us.



By Clint Durrett
State of emergency declared in several parishes following severe weather
UPDATED 7:52 PM CST Feb 23, 2016



ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH, La. —A state of emergency was declared for several parishes after severe weather swept through the area Tuesday.
Parishes included in the declaration were Assumption, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. James, St. John the Baptist and Washington.

A tornado watch is in effect until 10 p.m. Tuesday. A wind advisory is in effect until 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Damage across the areas included downed power lines, downed trees and extensive damage to homes.

In St. John the Baptist Parish, the National Weather Service has confirmed that a tornado touched down in LaPlace.

Authorities and emergency crews are assisting residents and assessing the damage.

Residents are asked to call 911 to report all emergencies and are advised to stay off of roadways.

POWER OUTAGES:

According to Entergy, more than 18,000 customers were without power in the state.
Power outages can be reported at 1-800-9OUTAGE and can be viewed at http://viewoutage.entergy.com/la.aspx
Residents should not touch downed power lines as they may be active.
CURFEW:

The following areas in St. John the Baptist Parish will be under curfew from 10 p.m. until 6 a.m. for the following areas that received damage:.
more:...
Quoting 284. TropicalAnalystwx13:

SBCAPE of 1892j/kg coupled with Sfc-6km shear of 88kt, resulting in Sfc-3km SRH of 639m2/s2 by 21z tomorrow afternoon in Raleigh. No biggie...

Soundings like this are a rare breed across North Carolina. Don't want to see the result of a sustained supercell in this kind of an environment.




Surprised the SPC doesn't have a moderate risk for that area.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1000 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 950 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 945 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Tornadic threat starting to come down a bit. That rain shield is tamping things down. What this means for tomorrow once the sun comes up, we'll see.
Quoting 293. Tcwx2:

Thank you. It's so cool outside that it's hard for me to imangine anything really bad developing.
It's not that cool. Still 66 here with a dewpoint of 65 so there are plenty of ingredients available for severe storms later if they can take advantage of conditions. The only way we'll know is to watch what happens over in Mississippi and see if any severe stuff forms there. We might have dodged a bullet -- or maybe not.
Quoting 266. AllyBama:

Hearing of an apartment complex hit and cars blown off I-10 in Pensacola.


The sad thing is, if you're car gets blown off the I-10 bridge, you probably aren't coming out alive unless the window was already open.



Assumption Parish declares emergency after violent storm

By Diana Samuels, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
Email the author | Follow on Twitter

on February 23, 2016 at 6:32 PM, updated February 23, 2016 at 6:47 PM

Assumption Parish officials declared a state of emergency after a violent storm caused heavy damage Tuesday (Feb. 23) in the Paincourtville area. A water tower was among the structures damaged, and the loss of pressure led officials to order residents parishwide to boil water before drinking or cooking with it.

An emergency shelter was to open at Belle Rose Middle School for any Assumption residents. Those who need transportation to the shelter may call the Emergency Preparedness Office at 985.369.7386.

The parish said all Assumption public schools will be closed Wednesday.
Quoting 289. nash36:

Happens every time....

Gotta love The Weather Channel. It's almost as if our state doesn't exist. Dillingham just said there could be several discrete cells rolling though Charlotte, Raleigh....and FLORIDA!

Ummm....This system has to roll through SC as well. Sometimes I believe we could have a TORCON of 10, and somehow, it would fail to get mentioned. Now, I do understand that most storms die once they hit that I-95/I-26 graveyard, but geez.


When the system reaches you there will be coverage .. right now your not in the eye of the storm ..
Quoting 301. Jedkins01:



The sad thing is, if you're car gets blown off the I-10 bridge, you probably aren't coming out alive unless the window was already open.
I haven't seen any confirmation of a car being blown off the I-10 bridge. There was a report of a car being blown over on I-10, but nowhere near the bridge.
There would appear to be an area of strong rotation headed for the Dothan, Al area.

The wedge is the key.
Quoting 297. Jedkins01:



Surprised the SPC doesn't have a moderate risk for that area.

They're playing catch up (and I'm not really sure why, tomorrow has looked significant for a few days now...). Hopefully they get one out at the first Day 1 outlook in 2 hours.
Quoting 309. TropicalAnalystwx13:


They're playing catch up (and I'm not really sure why, tomorrow has looked significant for a few days now...). Hopefully they get one out at the first Day 1 outlook in 2 hours.


They haven't updated this area since 11:30 this morning.
Signature nearing Dothan is strengthening- this needs to be warned...

Right on queue.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northern Houston County in southeastern Alabama...
northeastern Geneva County in southeastern Alabama...
southwestern Henry County in southeastern Alabama...
southeastern Dale County in southeastern Alabama...

* until 1100 PM CST

* at 1014 PM CST... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Slocomb... or 10 miles southeast of
Daleville... moving northeast at 45 mph.

Hazard... tornado and quarter size hail.

Source... radar indicated rotation.

Impact... flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Dothan... Taylor and Pinckard around 1025 PM CST.
Midland City around 1030 PM CST.
Kinsey... Cowarts... Webb and Kinsey around 1035 PM CST.
Headland around 1045 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Grandberry Crossroads... Green Acres... Bald Hill... Pleasant Plains...
Smyrna... W. Main/Brannon St... Napier Field... Pearce... Jones
Crossroads and Enon.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors... in a
Mobile home... or in a vehicle... move to the closest substantial
shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 3112 8565 3118 8571 3152 8536 3124 8512
time... Mot... loc 0414z 238deg 39kt 3118 8560

Tornado... radar indicated
hail... 1.00in


15-Harrigan
Courtesy of wunderblogger allybama,

Path of the tornado that hit Pensacola.



TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1014 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...  
NORTHEASTERN GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...  
SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...  
SOUTHEASTERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 1100 PM CST  
 
* AT 1014 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SLOCOMB...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF  
DALEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
DOTHAN...TAYLOR AND PINCKARD AROUND 1025 PM CST.  
MIDLAND CITY AROUND 1030 PM CST.  
KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB AND KINSEY AROUND 1035 PM CST.  
HEADLAND AROUND 1045 PM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
GRANDBERRY CROSSROADS...GREEN ACRES...BALD HILL...PLEASANT PLAINS.SMYRNA...W. MAIN/BRANNON ST...NAPIER FIELD...PEARCE...JONES  
CROSSROADS AND ENON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3112 8565 3118 8571 3152 8536 3124 8512  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 238DEG 39KT 3118 8560  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
15-HARRIGAN  
Good old fashion WU breaking down in the middle of a important weather event.Seems that regardless of all these upgrades this problem never seems to get fixed.
Very impressive rotation south of Abbeville, Al about to pass into Georgia.

Quoting 318. washingtonian115:

Good old fashion WU breaking down in the middle of a important weather event.Seems that regardless of all these upgrades this problem never seems to get fixed.
HICCUPS that's all its better than ever to be honest
Quoting 318. washingtonian115:

Good old fashion WU breaking down in the middle of a important weather event.Seems that regardless of all these upgrades this problem never seems to get fixed.
I was locked out for 2 hours, washi. Just got back in thru an unlocked window in the back yard.

Short of banning me, WU's not gonna keep me out. NYAHH NYAHAAA NYYYAAHAHA to the software folks and thier moats fulla gators.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1154 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1052 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1048 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1041 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1037 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1025 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
City of Toronto

A major winter storm is expected to affect Ontario Wednesday and Thursday.

A low pressure system over Western Tennessee will deepen and intensify into a winter storm as it tracks northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday then into Northern New England or Southern Quebec on Thursday.

This winter storm is expected to bring significant amounts of rain, snow and ice pellets, along with the possibility of freezing rain.
The precipitation will arrive Wednesday morning, likely in the form of snow or a snow and ice pellet mix, then change over gradually to rain in the afternoon or evening as the low gets closer.

Snow and ice pellet amounts will range from a coating to 2 centimetres over southern parts and near the Lake Ontario shore to as much as 10 cm of heavy snow over northern sections inland from the Great lakes where snow may last for a few hours.

Freezing rain is also quite possible during the switchover from snow and ice pellets to rain.

Precipitation will change back to all snow on Thursday as colder air gets pumped in from the north in the wake of this large and messy low pressure area.

Environment Canada continues to monitor this system very closely.
Freezing rain warnings are possible in all areas, and rainfall warnings may also be required for parts of Eastern Ontario as the event draws nearer.

Travelling conditions are expected to quickly deteriorate Wednesday as the precipitation arrives.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
I shot the Sheriff'
but I did not shoot the wunder'blog's..
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1210 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...  
NORTHWESTERN EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
WESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
 
* UNTIL 100 AM EST/MIDNIGHT CST/  
 
* AT 1210 AM EST /1110 PM CST/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLAKELY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
55 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
EDISON AROUND 1230 AM EST.  
MORGAN AROUND 1235 AM EST.    
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
SUTTONS CORNER...BLUFFTON...MOYE...FERRELL CROSSROADS...EARLY CO  
A/P...PARKSVILLE...TURMAN...COLEMAN...COLOMOKEE AND RANDOLPH CO A/P.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3153 8459 3132 8497 3142 8508 3174 8484  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 229DEG 46KT 3144 8495  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
Quoting 321. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

HICCUPS that's all its better than ever to be honest
No, it's not. This used to be a reliable website. Now, it's not.
Quoting 328. sar2401:

No, it's not. This used to be a reliable website. Now, it's not.
whatever sar nothing else to pick at
easy, sar... I don't want you getting banned right now.
Reports of tree and power line damage in the Dothan/Midland City area and a possible tornado in Kinsey in Houston County, north of Dothan. Everything is now moving into Georgia, but there are still some strong storms south of Dothan in Houston and Dale County. What was a pretty strong line moving toward me has more or less collapsed. I've gotten 0.62" of rain and a high wind gust of 9 mph. So far, so good.
Quoting 332. sar2401:

The truth hurts...
learn too tell it sometimes
Quoting 328. sar2401:

No, it's not. This used to be a reliable website. Now, it's not.


that's only your opinion .. you don't have any facts to actually back that statement up !!
TORNADO WARNING
ALC067-240530-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0010.160224T0448Z-160224T0530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1048 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CST

* AT 1047 PM CST...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HEADLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ABBEVILLE AROUND 1055 PM CST.
FORT GAINES AROUND 1215 AM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
GRANDBERRY CROSSROADS...SCOTTSBORO CROSSROADS...SHORTERVILLE...
CAPPS...TUMBLETON...WILLIS CROSSROADS...DANCEY...MURPHY STATION...
DOUBLE BRIDGES AND SCREAMER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 8512 3170 8513 3166 8508 3164 8509
3162 8506 3157 8506 3154 8504 3147 8507
3143 8507 3132 8530 3142 8540 3170 8523
3171 8521 3174 8520 3177 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 235DEG 37KT 3141 8529

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

15-HARRIGAN
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1122 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1219 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
Tornadoes at night are the worst! Very scary situation. I experienced the outage about 10 minutes, not too bad. There may be a big load on the servers. I consider the glitch to be minor. The glitch in which you were told to revalidate your account was much more annoying.
Wab- in simple defense of sar- and PLEASE don't ban me for this- there were numerous folks who got locked out today, yesterday, over the past week, and over the past month. I just got locked out for over two hours. We have each other's personal emails, and we talk amongst ourselves when we get locked out.

Good people get locked out, like Beell, and Barefoot.

Short of tracking servers and pinging WU like a hidden stealth submarine, we blogging peasants can't literally PROVE the issues. But there ARE issues.

I said that nicely and with respect.

right now under these weather conditions there are a large number of people getting on WU and refreshing every few seconds so they don't miss anything ..

for every person making comments there are a very large number that don't but still use this site .. we all know about Lurkers !!

Glitches happen to all web sites .. WU is not any different then any other..
Quoting 338. aquak9:

Wab- in simple defense of sar- and PLEASE don't ban me for this- there were numerous folks who got locked out today, yesterday, over the past week, and over the past month. I just got locked out for over two hours. We have each other's personal emails, and we talk amongst ourselves when we get locked out.

Good people get locked out, like Beell, and Barefoot.

Short of tracking servers and pinging WU like a hidden stealth submarine, we blogging peasants can't literally PROVE the issues. But there ARE issues.

I said that nicely and with respect.


well said all of it true but its been worked on and it is getting better over time even more so as we move further along
338. aqua..
Good people get locked out, like Beell, and Barefoot.
While it is kind of you to place me in the same sentence with beell, I haven't been locked out in forever. For a few minutes tonight the blogs wouldn't load, but that did not last long.

Frankly, I don't depend on wu when severe threatens Oklahoma. There are commercially available apps with better radar, and NWS Storm Relative Velocity surpasses wu's.
:)
I get locked out also .. I just did for about 10 minutes .. A glitch..

But I don't come back on bashing WU !!
@ post 342- that's all we really want, is acknowledgement of the problem, and the hope that the issues will decrease.

peace n stuff ya'll, g'nite
Heading to the wunderground aft chamber.

Be safe and come first light, the images will be shared here.

Its what we do.

G'night


gonna spread out now feeding
Scary screaming storms
swirling severely slam Sar;
subsequent sunshine.
It's clearly getting better all the time.
Just checking in. Just saw the new SPC map for Raleigh-Durham. Sigh. I have everything prepped except for the 3 cat carriers. Could get quite nasty. Keep in mind basements in this area are extremely rare due to the high water table. Nowhere to hide.

Stay safe fellow NCers! Tomorrow might be a rather bumpy ride.
To all the complainers, if you don't like it, either move along and find some place better or
deal with it. Most times, it's a simple as logging off and signing back in to gain access.
How long has the internet been around anyhow? Hell, some of you grew up with B&W TV's.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
------------------------------------------------- -------

Tropical Cyclone Winston is expected to continue moving south today, and should then turn to the west southwest overnight tonight.

The cyclone is expected to pass to the north of Norfolk Island late Thursday or early Friday, though there is some uncertainty associated with this forecast track. The tropical cyclone will possibly undertake extratropical transition during Thursday or Friday. However, it is expected to retain an intense wind structure and could still have similar impacts to a Category 2 tropical cyclone, particularly on its southern edge.

Damaging winds with gusts over 90 km/h may develop about Norfolk Island during the day Thursday and continue into the early hours of Friday. These winds may be stronger with wind gusts in excess of 120 km/h if the cyclone takes a more southerly track.

Tides are expected to be higher than normal on Thursday night and Friday, and large waves will develop about exposed beaches.

Heavy rainfall and squally showers will possibly develop on Thursday night and continue into early Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for the Norfolk Islands
Funny, I have not had any such problem, but then again, I never log out...
Quoting 342. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well said all of it true but its been worked on and it is getting better over time even more so as we move further along
Looks like a storm with a tornado signature is passing south of Sar's area.
356. vis0
DO NOT USE FOR FORECASTING


Quoting 351. violet312s:

Just checking in. Just saw the new SPC map for Raleigh-Durham. Sigh. I have everything prepped except for the 3 cat carriers. Could get quite nasty. Keep in mind basements in this area are extremely rare due to the high water table. Nowhere to hide.

Stay safe fellow NCers! Tomorrow might be a rather bumpy ride.


keep your eyes to the sky !! tomorrow may well be like earlier tonight in that area .. keep your Weather Radio turned up loud ..

Quoting 352. swflurker:

To all the complainers, if you don't like it, either move along and find some place better or
deal with it. Most times, it's a simple as logging off and signing back in to gain access.
How long has the internet been around anyhow? Hell, some of you grew up with B&W TV's.


Relax said the night man
We are programed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #57
STORM WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON, CATEGORY TWO (09F)
18:00 PM FST February 24 2016
=============================
Southeast of New Caledonia

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Winston, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 23.7S 174.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectral enhanced infrared imagery.

Storm Force Winds
==============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
240 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
220 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection remains persistent but displaced to the south. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. System lies in a moderate upper divergence region and in a high sheared environment. Dry air entrainment from the northwest. Outflow good to the south. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center 3/4 from deep convection yields DT=2.5, MET and PT agree, Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 25.1S 172.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1) Out of Area of Responsibility
24 HRS 26.3S 169.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Getting very strong gusty winds and torrential rain with a lot of lightning here, impressive thunderstorm! Power is flickering, thankfully no tornado warning here, just a classic squall line experience so far with the severe thunderstorm warning. Remind me a lot of tropical cyclone rain bands.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Marine Warning
-------------------------------------------------

At 18:00 PM FST, Tropical Disturbance 11F (1002 hPa) located near 16.5S 157.4W.

Expect clockwise winds up to 35 knots within 80-180 NM away from the center in the sector from north through east to southwest
French Polynesia
363. vis0
.
Good morning from Europe. I'm very sorry to read about death and destruction in the US due to the current storms :-(

Three dead as tornadoes hit southern US
BBC, 3 hours ago

Louisiana, Mississippi Tornadoes Update: Worst Damage In 36 years
Morning News USA, Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Moreover, more bad news from Fiji Islands, unfortunately:

Scramble to reach Fiji victims as Cyclone Winston death toll hits 42

The death toll in Fiji following Cyclone Winston continues to rise. Aid organizations are racing against the clock to get relief goods to those most severely affected by the storm.
Deutsche Welle English, Feb 24, 2016
More deaths have been confirmed by the government of Fiji on Wednesday following Saturday's Cyclone Winston, the first category five storm to ever hit Fiji. The government now says 42 people have been killed.
Dan Gavidi is a senior communications official with the government of Fiji.
The latest figured from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) says nearly 14,000 people are in 274 evacuations shelters. On the island of Koro, entire villages were destroyed in the wake of the storm. Downed communication lines have made communication between the country's islands difficult.
On Wednesday, the Fijian government issued a tender for a building contract to construct "pre-designed standard houses" in areas affected by Cyclone Winston.
The government has declared a 30-day state of natural disaster and has officially requested international assistance.
Neighboring nations such as Australia have responded to the call. The DFAT is Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Aid must arrive quickly as officials fear the destruction of crops and tainted water supplies could lead to a widespread health crisis.
With rescue efforts still underway, officials said the death toll could continue to rise. Fiji's population of 860,000 is spread across 110 of the Fijian archipelago's 332 islands.

mz/jil (AFP/AP)

Cyclone Winston: Dead toll passes 40 as thousands abandon homes
NZHerald, 10:30 PM Wednesday Feb 24, 2016
In addition to the 42 confirmed as having lost their lives, a 10-month-old baby and three other people are listed as missing. ...
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 25
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

TORNADO WATCH 25 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-017-023-041-047-053-075-083-101-11 9-121-125-
241500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0025.160224T0855Z-160224T1500Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS COLUMBIA GILCHRIST
HAMILTON HERNANDO LEVY
MARION PASCO SUMTER
SUWANNEE UNION
$$
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
442 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
MADISON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
BROOKS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
CENTRAL LANIER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 530 AM EST

* AT 442 AM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUITMAN TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF PERRY...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISON...LAKE PARK...QUITMAN...LAKELAND...VALDOSTA...HAHIRA...I- 75
AT EXIT 16...MOODY AIR FORCE BASE...REMERTON...DASHER...MORVEN...
LEE...DIXIE...I-75 AT EXIT 5...PINETTA...BLUE SPRINGS...HAMBURG...
NANKIN...DAY AND NAYLOR.
a Dangerous morning and day ahead folks..stay alert and safe out there.
We might be seeing some long track tornadoes coming across C FL this morning as there appears to be tornadoes with these supercells off of Tampa.


I see Fiji has updated the death toll from Winston to at least 42, and warns it will rise further as they still don't have contact with some outer islands. By far the deadliest storm in the country's history, and as far as I could tell from Wikipedia, one of the deadliest ever in the basin. Here is what I got, maybe we can expand this if someone has more information, it would be nice to see Doc Masters mention it in his next post too, it's an interesting statistic.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pacific_tropic al_cyclone

Deadliest South Pacific Tropical Cyclones (More than 20 deaths)

(*data before 1980 is very spotty)

1973-73 - Cyclone Natalie-Lottie - 85 confirmed, more possible ('Uluilakeba' capsizing near Fiji)
1985-86 - Cyclone Namu - 111 confirmed, 150+ possible
1986-87 - Cyclone Uma - 50 confirmed
1996-97 - Cyclone Gavin - 25 confirmed
2015-16 - Cyclone Winston - 42 confirmed

Also, if we make this a confirmed Top 10 (if someone helps), I will make a Template box for Wikipedia to include in the articles of the storms themselves ;)
Wind starting to kick up here along FL Nature Coast. (Long time lurker)

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

NORMAN OK 543 AM EST
WED FEB 24 2016

TORNADO WATCH 25 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST FL
FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS COLUMBIA GILCHRIST
HAMILTON HERNANDO LEVY
MARION PASCO SUMTER
SUWANNEE UNION
$$

500AM 32F Tuscola, IL

Winds easily over 40 mph at times. Measured .4" of rainfall have now turned over to sleet, frz rain, snow mix.



need.rain...e.cen.florida
Good Morning. We were spared from the brunt of this system last evening in most of the Florida Big Bend as the storms/squall line died down a bit after wrecking havoc and death and destruction from Texas to LA, MS, AL, GA and the Florida Panhandle. A small blessing for us (my particular neighborhood anyway) and a major tragedy for our neighbors in the Gulf States. Here is the tally for yesterday and the forecast for today:

yesterday Reports Graphic


And the current look as the low pushes to the NE:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Nice band of snow pushing up towards the Great Lakes this morning and front pushing East:


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Southeast sector loop
CFSv2 is going banana's this Fall with El-Nino. This looks more impressive than Fall 2015.

Latest update on this WWB suggest now that this WWB will continue thru the end of March. If this occurs then this really gives the CFSv2 a lot of props.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 815 AM EST

* AT 735 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STARKE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...ORANGE PARK...STARKE...MIDDLEBURG...MANDARIN...ARLINGTON. ..
FRUIT COVE...ORTEGA...SAN MARCO...RIVERSIDE...OAKLEAF PLANTATION...
FLEMING ISLAND...NAS JAX...LAKESIDE...KINGSLEY...BAYARD...BAYMEADOWS...
MAXVILLE...CISCO GARDENS AND CAMP BLANDING.
With this WWB going thru the end of March this pretty much seals the deal that all these other models are busting with showing a transition to La-Nina. No matter how you slice to have a month long WWB thru March is unheard of when you would expect La-Nina to occur. To me this is 2014 but the opposite effect where WWB keep coming thru Spring unlike to 2014 where it just hardly happened thus eliminating El-Nino until Winter.
1742 PRAIRIEVILLE ASCENSION LA 3030 9097 SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO GOLDS GYM IN PRAIRIEVILLE. (LIX)
1805 PRAIRIEVILLE ASCENSION LA 3030 9097 SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO GOLDS GYM IN PRAIRIEVILLE. (LIX)

I'm alive. Like, it was really close and all and it was probably the strongest tornado I've ever witnessed, but I'm alive, as evidenced by my posting here. ;)
local.algae.bloom....front.page.news=finally
Quoting 382. StormTrackerScott:

With this WWB going thru the end of March this pretty much seals the deal that all these other models are busting with showing a transition to La-Nina. No matter how you slice to have a month long WWB thru March is unheard of when you would expect La-Nina to occur. To me this is 2014 but the opposite effect where WWB keep coming thru Spring unlike to 2014 where it just hardly happened thus eliminating El-Nino until Winter.


It doesn't seal anything. That's a pretty bold statement. First of all, how do you actually know it's going to persist through the end of March?
Welp, went from slight to moderate with a hatched tornado area. Looks like I am annoying my coworkers with my weather radio today...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
755 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

FLZ043-139-142-239-242-241330-
COASTAL CITRUS-SUMTER-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
755 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SUMTER...
SOUTHEASTERN LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES...

AT 755 AM EST...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER BLACK
DIAMOND...OR OVER BEVERLY HILLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INVERNESS...HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...BEVERLY HILLS...INVERNESS HIGHLANDS
NORTH...CRYSTAL RIVER AIRPORT...BLACK DIAMOND...INVERNESS HIGHLANDS
SOUTH...INVERNESS AIRPORT...HOMOSASSA...HERNANDO...SUGARMILL WOODS...
INGLIS...GREEN ACRES...BRENT WOOD...GOSPEL ISLAND...CITRUS SPRINGS...
LEISURE ACRES...PINE RIDGE...INVERNESS HIGHLANDS AND CITRONELLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
Quoting 385. KoritheMan:



It doesn't seal anything. That's a pretty bold statement. First of all, how do you actually know it's going to persist through the end of March?


Did you see the project wind anomalies above or do I need to repost it? That is significant to see a forecast from the GFS & CFS showing a WWB going thru March. Talk about derailing a ENSO forecast. YIKES!!!
Quoting 385. KoritheMan:



It doesn't seal anything. That's a pretty bold statement. First of all, how do you actually know it's going to persist through the end of March?


Also the amplitude of this upcoming WWB with its eastward extent is flat out impressive a year after we just had a and still do a Super El-Nino. If these forecast pan out and we approach April/May then the CFSv2 will pan out. Its just that simple.
Another tornado outbreak mid next week.

UNCW cancelled classes beginning at 12 PM, I actually needed to go today. Probably still will, left my computer charger there and need to hit the gym. I guess better safe than sorry. The HRRR focuses the worst of the storms this afternoon over central NC. Seems to parallel the thinking from NWS-Raleigh.

Will be interesting to see over the next few days as the NWS teams do survey damage as to what rating they will assign to each tornado that touched down yesterday; based upon the damage I have seen on television, I am thinking in the range of EF2 to EF3 for most of them.

And one tornado warning currently up in NE GA near the SC border.



Here are the current wind reports as of the last 3 hours:

last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic
Quoting 388. StormTrackerScott:



Did you see the project wind anomalies above or do I need to repost it? That is significant to see a forecast from the GFS & CFS showing a WWB going thru March. Talk about derailing a ENSO forecast. YIKES!!!


I'm actually just getting on so no. But just based on what you've told me, you're literally talking about a forecast that's a month out. Aside from the fact that ENSO forecasts tend to rely primarily on continuity (as I understand it), what makes you think there's going to be any accuracy to these predictions? If you wanna argue climatology, it doesn't favor El Nino lasting thorugh the summer, and as my meteorologist friend likes to say, climatology is the best indicator beyond two weeks.

I would also expect some modest warming here and there. It's called a fluctuation, not a trend. In your defense, there is the spring predictability barrier and stuff, so maybe.
Quoting 352. swflurker:

To all the complainers, if you don't like it, either move along and find some place better or
deal with it. Most times, it's a simple as logging off and signing back in to gain access.
How long has the internet been around anyhow? Hell, some of you grew up with B&W TV's.
And for all the complainers complaining about the complainers just scroll past their post if you don't like it or just deal with it.This site breaks down regularly now.Didn't know it hurt others feelings for people posting their concerns.
Quoting 392. weathermanwannabe:

Will be interesting to see over the next few days as the NWS teams do survey damage as to what rating they will assign to each tornado that touched down yesterday; based upon the damage I have seen on television, I am thinking in the range of EF2 to EF3 for most of them.

And one tornado warning currently up in NE GA near the SC border.






Goldsboro, Wilson, right in the sea of red. They got hit hard in 2011.
Awaiting some news from Patrap this am on the toll in LA; if Portlight is going to take some donations for the folks in LA and the other Gulf States let us know.....................
Same type of potential set-up today for the Eastern Seaboard-Outer Banks Region as the Gulf yesterday with the warm moist flow from the Gulf and Atlantic now pushing up; also note the SST's off the Eastern Seaboard.........We might see some strong convection off-shore as well later today.




It will be interesting to see who gets the most sunshine in the Carolinas today. We just had our heavy rain move out here in the Moncks Corner area and I'm thinking we have a decent chance of sunshine for awhile in late morning/early afternoon hours. I don't know about NC though because all that heavy from SC is moving up there robbing them of sunshine. In any case, who gets the most sun today during the late morning/early afternoon hours will have the least fun with severe storms/tornadoes in the late afternoon.
The sun is shining here..

Everyone be safe today..
MDT threat level for Hampton roads area now from NWS Wakefield. Hope everyone is safe today and thoughts out to those recovering so far.
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

WHILE CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS NOT AS RIPE FOR
A SEVERE THREAT AS THEY ARE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS WITH STRONG WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. 850 MB WINDS OF
AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
OF DIURNAL HEATING COULD BE MAJOR FACTORS IN THE SEVERE WEATHER
EQUATION FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE STORMS FOR MANY AREAS TO WARM UP...THAT COULD
CREATE A STORE OF INSTABILITY THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF.

WITH ACCESS TO THE SUPPORT FROM A LOW LEVEL JET...STORMS COULD
CREATE 45 TO 60 MPH GUSTS. WHILE THE TORNADO RISK IS NOT AS HIGH AS
THE STRONG WIND RISK...THE 00Z NAM CREATES CONCERN WITH ELEVATED 0-1
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES NEARING 200 M2/S2 ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER IN THE GUIDANCE...THE LOW
LEVEL JET IN THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IS NOT THAT MUCH WEAKER OVER
THE AREA OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE MODES EXPECTED ARE
DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH A QLCS STRUCTURE FOR THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS.

Link
Quoting 389. StormTrackerScott:



Also the amplitude of this upcoming WWB with its eastward extent is flat out impressive a year after we just had a and still do a Super El-Nino. If these forecast pan out and we approach April/May then the CFSv2 will pan out. Its just that simple.


Yes, obviously; if that happens I'll concede.

But unless there's some serious initialization issues, it's very unlikely for a model consensus to bust and a single outlier to be right.
Oh, great! We don't ever get any bad weather here (this year) until I have to get out of town on an airplane. My flight leaves at 1:00 p.m. but I just heard that 600 flights have been cancelled out of O'Hare Field this morning in advance of the storm which is supposed to hit us at about 10:00 a.m. With 60 mph wind potential, I'm not sure whether to hope for my flight to be on time or cancelled. Right now it's a mild 36° F. with 15 mph winds gusting up to 30 mph. The snow forecast has been fluctuating between 3" - 5" and 8" or more, for several days. My airport limo arrives here at my house at 10:30 this morning. Time to track my flight. Wish me luck.



if you look at the 3.4 chart...you can see that the last two WWB's did have a temporary effect on the decaying el nino.....

but if you look to the experts...and the degreed mets.......they stick to two important key words....temporary...and decaying
El Niño Is Almost Dead, But Now 'Anti-El Niño' Is on Its Way

Ria Misra
Thursday 12:56pmFiled to: EL NINO
142.6K
150
5
El Niño Is Almost Dead, But Now 'Anti-El Niño' Is on Its Way
The latest forecast for El Niño is out, and it’s looking like we’ve seen the worst of it already. But as it fades, there’s something new coming up on the horizon. Are you ready for “anti-El Niño”?

In the forecast, NOAA said that while El Niño is still around for the moment, its days are numbered and it will probably be completely gone by this spring. The weather we’ll experience as it wraps up will likely be nowhere near as dramatic as in its earlier stages.

The data is still being argued over, but NOAA forecasters are describing this El Niño as “at least on par” with the El Niño of 1997-98, which is the strongest on record.

What happens as El Niño fades? The first thing we can expect is a brief neutral period during which we can all presumably catch our breath. After that, though, it looks like we’ve got more episodes of weird weather headed towards us.

El Niño Is Almost Dead, But Now 'Anti-El Niño' Is on Its Way
El Nino and La Niña via NOAA
La Niña—known alternately to NOAA as El Viejo or, more evocatively, “anti-El Niño”—is El Niño’s nemesis. While El Niño brings warmer sea surface temperatures, La Niña cools them down, meaning that what El Niño has done, La Niña often undoes. In the United States La Niña, is likely to make it cooler and wetter in the northern states and warmer and drier in the southern states. Just how it does that depends on when it shows up. If La Niña begins in the colder months, it’s likely to be much more noticeable than if it hits in the summer.
Quoting 400. ncstorm:

The sun is shining here..

Everyone be safe today..


Sure is
from the japanese mets....


[El Niño / La Niña]
In January 2016, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +2.7°C, which is 0.3°C lower than in December and is still remarkable (Table and Fig.1). Five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.5°C or above for 18 consecutive months ending in November. SSTs were remarkably above normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in January (Fig.2 and Fig.4). Subsurface temperatures were remarkably below normal in the western equatorial Pacific, and remarkably above normal in the eastern part, while warm waters in the eastern part were weaker than in December (Fig.3 and Fig.5). Atmospheric convective activities were remarkably above normal and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were remarkably below normal over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig.6, Fig.7 and Fig.8). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that El Niño event passed on its mature stage and weakened slightly in January 2016.

The subsurface cold waters, which were observed in January in the western equatorial Pacific, will migrate eastward in the months ahead, and warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part will dissipate. The JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST will come closer gradually to normal and will be near normal in the Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig.9). In conclusion, it is likely that El Niño conditions will weaken in the months ahead, and then the equatorial Pacific will be ENSO-neutral conditions in the Northern Hemisphere summer.
411. MahFL
No severe wx in Orange Park, over hyped garbage again...
.
Finally switched over to all snow here in Tuscola, IL 1" on the ground, visibility under 1/4 mile. Winds are strong. No tress down as of yet, but many branches are scattered about. Snow sticking to pavement now. Still holding to 32 F.

Points west of me from Springfield Decatur, to Kankakee getting a bit more 2-3"
Quoting 404. ChiThom:

Oh, great! We don't ever get any bad weather here (this year) until I have to get out of town on an airplane. My flight leaves at 1:00 p.m. but I just heard that 600 flights have been cancelled out of O'Hare Field this morning in advance of the storm which is supposed to hit us at about 10:00 a.m. With 60 mph wind potential, I'm not sure whether to hope for my flight to be on time or cancelled. Right now it's a mild 36%uFFFD F. with 15 mph winds gusting up to 30 mph. The snow forecast has been fluctuating between 3" - 5" and 8" or more, for several days. My airport limo arrives here at my house at 10:30 this morning. Time to track my flight. Wish me luck.


Quoting 390. StormTrackerScott:

Another tornado outbreak mid next week.




Jeff, are you still forecasting "long track tornadoes" over Central Florida today?
Quoting 409. win1gamegiantsplease:



Sure is
Thanks for the UNCW update on a previous post. My daughter's field trip is cancelled to Carolina Beach State Park:) Was able to give her a heads up yesterday to the potential of severe weather today. She wondered how I WU folks!
After getting nothing more than rain yesterday in Baton Rouge, the high winds finally reached us around 10pm last night knocking power out until ~3:30am.

Seeing the potential for another potential severe break out next week...any merit to that or is it the typical 7 day crystal ball guess?
Quoting my own post #416. She wondered how I knew, much thanks to the WU folks. Don't know how this happened, I did preview that post?????? Will be lurking this afternoon.
Quoting 403. KoritheMan:



Yes, obviously; if that happens I'll concede.

But unless there's some serious initialization issues, it's very unlikely for a model consensus to bust and a single outlier to be right.

With this Niño the models have bust for months now, always predicting a sharp down that never yet came.
Was a downright rough day is Se. Louisiana yesterday.

nola.com


Quoting 380. StormTrackerScott:

Latest update on this WWB suggest now that this WWB will continue thru the end of March. If this occurs then this really gives the CFSv2 a lot of props.


Other models do show this WWB event.

But it still has a La nina.

You can't trust what the models tell you about and event 6 month away.
Eastern NC/SC was just updated to a 7

Dr. Greg Forbes

TODAY's Detailed TOR:CON list:
DE - 4
FL peninsula - 4
GA east - 3
KY extreme east - less than 2
MD east - 5
MC central - 4
NC east - 7
NC central - 6
NC west - 5
NJ - 2 to 3
NY south night - 2
PA east - 3
PA central, southwest - less than 2
SC east - 7
SC central - 6
SC west - 5
TN northeast - less than 2
VA east - 6
VA west - 5
WV - less than 2
I spy a cold front.

Quoting 422. ncstorm:

Eastern NC/SC was just updated to a 7

Dr. Greg Forbes

TODAY's Detailed TOR:CON list:
DE - 4
FL peninsula - 4
GA east - 3
KY extreme east - less than 2
MD east - 5
MC central - 4
NC east - 7
NC central - 6
NC west - 5
NJ - 2 to 3
NY south night - 2
PA east - 3
PA central, southwest - less than 2
SC east - 7
SC central - 6
SC west - 5
TN northeast - less than 2
VA east - 6
VA west - 5
WV - less than 2


Ummm.....

How in the world have we gone from a 5 to a 7 after the line has cleared? Dr. Forbes must be expecting discrete cells to form later in the day before the front passes. Any thoughts??
Quoting 424. nash36:



Ummm.....

How in the world have we gone from a 5 to a 7 after the line has cleared? Dr. Forbes must be expecting discrete cells to form later in the day before the front passes. Any thoughts??


He will be on at noon on TWC per his FB post..hopefully he will be explaining why he upped the numbers..going to be a long day for some folks..
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL - KTBW 949 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 846 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 841 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 811 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 809 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 736 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 709 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
Quoting 425. ncstorm:



He will be on at noon on TWC per his FB post..hopefully he will be explaining why he upped the numbers..going to be a long day for some folks..


Has to be discrete cells. I'm positive he wouldn't have raised it without good reason.
Quoting 424. nash36:



Ummm.....

How in the world have we gone from a 5 to a 7 after the line has cleared? Dr. Forbes must be expecting discrete cells to form later in the day before the front passes. Any thoughts??
Dr. Forbes is one of the best in the business and without the benefit of TV at work, and looking at the current WV loop, I am thinking that the combination of day time heating, the position of the jet, and the warm flow coming up from the Atlantic and Gulf into the Eastern Seaboard is going to spawn some super-cells later this afternoon that will be able to rise up into the mid-level jet and get some rotation going. That is my best uneducated guess.

Quoting 428. weathermanwannabe:

Dr. Forbes is one of the best in the business and without the benefit of TV at work, and looking at the current WV loop, I am thinking that the combination of day time heating, the position of the jet, and the warm flow coming up from the Atlantic and Gulf into the Eastern Seaboard is going to spawn some super-cells later this afternoon that will be able to rise up into the mid-level jet and get some rotation going. That is my best uneducated guess.




That would be unprecedented for Charleston. We just don't get discrete cells all too often, let alone have a TORCON of 7.
Quoting 420. Patrap:

Was a downright rough day is Se. Louisiana yesterday.

nola.com



Yep...That is where the strongest dynamics were...At least from what I saw on the charts.
Here in Tallahassee at the moment, we are under sunny hot skies and the lower level winds are starting to gust between 30-40 mph in the wake of the low............That combination of lower level flow from the low and upper level flow from the jet is headed towards the Eastern Seaboard as well.
Quoting 433. weathermanwannabe:

Here in Tallahassee at the moment, we are under sunny hot skies and the lower level winds are starting to gust between 30-40 mph in the wake of the low............That combination of lower level flow from the low and upper level flow from the jet is headed towards the Eastern Seaboard as well.


Hopefully the wedge will protect us here in DC but that's not at all a sure thing esp east of I95.
I dont ever recall posting Severe Weather even during a PDS watch for 7.5 hours yesterday.

We made out fairly well here, save for the Garage flooding from the last squall line that gave us a real wallop as well as 2.5 inches of rain in 30 minutes.

The wet/dry vac got the water up by midnight.

Respect this one, it has moxie.


Tornado caught on video in Louisiana http://www.fox10tv.com/story/31296329/tornado-caug ht-on-video-in-louisiana#ixzz416IizadX" target="_blank">Tornado caught on video in Louisiana
12 hours later and the post-frontal winds are still 15 to 25 mph. What a potent system.
Quoting 436. KoritheMan:

12 hours later and the post-frontal winds are still 15 to 25 mph. What a potent system.


Dropped from 74F at 6pm here yesterday to 49F currently here Kori.

Them N winds a howling here still.

Impressive indeed.
Quoting 419. cRRKampen:


With this Niño the models have bust for months now, always predicting a sharp down that never yet came.


Yeah. I think there's a chance El Nino continues into the summer and the CFS is right. It hasn't weakened as fast as anticipated, but I'd always hedge my bets on climatology, especially with how cognizant I am that weather can change rapidly.
Quoting 431. nash36:



That would be unprecedented for Charleston. We just don't get discrete cells all too often, let alone have a TORCON of 7.


TORCON of 8 here in south Louisiana yesterday and he ended up being right. Be careful, Nash.
Quoting 437. Patrap:



Dropped from 74F at 6pm here yesterday to 49F currently here Kori.

Them N winds a howling here still.

Impressive indeed.


My brother didn't believe me when I told him he'd need something besides shorts when going outside this morning. :P
Quoting 435. Patrap:

I dont ever recall posting Severe Weather even during a PDS watch for 7.5 hours yesterday.

We made out fairly well here, save for the Garage flooding from the last squall line that gave us a real wallop as well as 2.5 inches of rain in 30 minutes.

The wet/dry vac got the water up by midnight.

Respect this one, it has moxie.


Tornado caught on video in Louisiana http://www.fox10tv.com/story/31296329/tornado-caug ht-on-video-in-louisiana#ixzz416IizadX" target="_blank">Tornado caught on video in Louisiana


I'm glad you and yours got through it unscathed, Pat.
We had nadoes all round us at one point yesterday.

Kenner, N shore, and the Triple Waterspout on the N shore was impressive as it had two other smaller spouts rotating around the main one.

That was shown LIVE on Local CBS when it occurred.

And hats off to wwltv 4 here as they never wavered on coverage till the threat was passed.

SBCAPE of 1000j/kg is very impressive for FEBURARY in the mid atlantic.

+60F dewpoints are forecast east of I95.


Ya don't see that most years in Feb!
South East North Carolina Bracing for the worst. Barometer dropping line a rock, 29.54, lightning in the area, Ocean Isle Beach, NC
This system is one of the more complex ones we have seen in recent years between the El Nino jet pattern, trajectory and depth of the low, related pressure gradients, and the sheer size. Unfortunately, it will go down in history in terms of the tornado outbreak and related deaths and damage with more possibly to come this afternoon.

Currently, much of the off-shore t-storm activity from the warm Atlantic, that would normally continue out to sea if this was a normal frontal passage, is being rotated back in-shore by the low.
Quoting 443. georgevandenberghe:

SBCAPE of 1000j/kg is very impressive for FEBURARY in the mid atlantic.

+60F dewpoints are forecast east of I95.


Ya don't see that most years in Feb!


Well, the new Earth atmo 2.0 is warmer and holds more Water Vapor than even this time last year.

Its matters greatly as to Potential.

73.8 degrees in February, nuts, wind speed 17mph gusts to 20mph, 98% humidity.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
1053 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
 
* UNTIL 1145 AM EST  
 
* AT 1053 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED  
OVER HOWELLSVILLE...OR NEAR LUMBERTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55  
MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
FAYETTEVILLE...EASTOVER...STEDMAN...AUTRYVILLE...C EDAR CREEK...  
VANDER AND BUSHY LAKE NATURAL AREA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE  
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 1053 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     WILMINGTON NC - KILM 1048 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
With a TORCON of 7, we should be getting a tornado watch anytime now.
Quoting 390. StormTrackerScott:

Another tornado outbreak mid next week.




Friday is the day I'm headed back to the Tampa Bay area for spring break, hopefully the models will delay the timing. It's too far out to say if it will be an outbreak as strength of system forecast by the models may change. But if that were to verify we would be in trouble height anomalies that far south in early March is a bad news for Florida. But again, a lot could change this far out.
Mesoscale Disco #0141
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241546Z - 241745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN/UPSTATE
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY FOR WHAT COULD BE A REGIONAL
TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
UPDATE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PEAK SEVERE PROBABILITIES
/INCLUDING STRONG TORNADO RISK/ ARE LIKELY TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SOUTHERN VA.

DISCUSSION...A DEEP CYCLONE CURRENTLY FEATURING A 986 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS. IN THE WAKE OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION HAVE BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MATURE/INTENSIFY AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AS IT OTHERWISE RACES NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ACCORDINGLY...AT LEAST SOME
TORNADO RISK COULD EXIST LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN/UPSTATE
AREAS...WITH A MORE CERTAIN/ROBUST TORNADO RISK...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
NC INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ERODING WEDGE FRONT/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
WHERE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
TORNADOES.

..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1106 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
No tornado watch issued but a tornado warned cell just NE of Lumberton.
That squall line west of charlotte is gonna be the hammer... Its gonna roll into ripe air mass and boom goes the dynamite. I live ear of Smithfield and work in Raleigh . I am on my tablet if I see damage ill send pics. ( utility work I am in it all the way)
Tornado Watch



SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 26
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1115 AM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...TWO AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY AREA OF STORMS WITHIN A QUASI-LINEAR
BAND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. A SECONDARY AREA OF SPORADIC TORNADO/WIND
POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN IN SOUTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST OF GREENSBORO NORTH
CAROLINA TO 40 MILES EAST OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Apparently the nationwide Bulgarian February record went again today (after it went on the 15th already).
Margin just a tenth, set now at 26.6° C at Veliko Tarnovo.
The heatwave in the models for the weekend is something else.
It suggests a record bust by several degrees on the 29th.
In the southeast including Florida we will see severe weather events continue into March perhaps lat March as the El Nino Region of 3.4 continues to boil. Long Range outlook calls for another severe outbreak mid to late week next week in the beginning of March.
Tuscola, IL 31F heavy Snow. Visibility less than 1/4 mile. Winds out of the NE at 30 plus mph. Gusts have been over 40.
Had 1" of snow as of 8:30AM CDT. As of 10:20 CDT I am sitting at 3". Snow is loaded with water. Just an estimate but probably something around 8:1 or 9:1 snow ratio. It's easily less than 10:1.

Tornado Watch South East NC, until 7PM, from Wilmington NC

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 26
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1115 AM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...TWO AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY AREA OF STORMS WITHIN A QUASI-LINEAR
BAND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. A SECONDARY AREA OF SPORADIC TORNADO/WIND
POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN IN SOUTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST OF GREENSBORO NORTH
CAROLINA TO 40 MILES EAST OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
I've got 81 degrees with a dewpoint of 73 here in south Fort Myers.
We're starting to see some cells that might need to be watched as they move on shore.

Here is another graphic to support my last blog about El Nino 3.4 and El Nino 3.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Huge area in that Watch. Win1, myself and ncstorm are all under the gun. Kids are coming home from school as I speak, early dismissal. Watch extends from Myrtle Beach all the way to VA border and then back to the mountains. Wow.

Quoting 465. Patrap:


Quoting 446. weathermanwannabe:

This system is one of the more complex ones we have seen in recent years between the El Nino jet pattern, trajectory and depth of the low, related pressure gradients, and the sheer size. Unfortunately, it will go down in history in terms of the tornado outbreak and related deaths and damage with more possibly to come this afternoon.

Currently, much of the off-shore t-storm activity from the warm Atlantic, that would normally continue out to sea if this was a normal frontal passage, is being rotated back in-shore by the low.


That is an El Nino signature. A big well developed baroclinic storm embedded in the subtropical jet and 24-36 hours more mature than usually found at this latitude (negative tilted things usually develop when the low moves north of 40N and are an indicator of both intensity and maturity of the system) We had these in 1983 also, not as many in 1998 and no I don't know why.
Storm passed going out to track down trash bin