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Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting annjulie:
Tell me in 1980 when Mt. St. Helens blew what effect did it have on hurricane season?

Nothing really...There was Hurricane Allen that Hit Texas...cat 3

Sheri,

My best guess is a relatively low number of storms ( say 9 or less ) but more intense on a percentage basis ( say 3 majors, cat 5, 4 and 3 )due to high TCHP resulting from a lack of systems to create upwelling and reduced Easterly trade wind speeds.

Late starting seasons usually bring one or two nasty surprises.
Quoting futuremet:
sigh...

It is not even active in the tropics, and yet 3 trolls are infiltrating.

poof 'em all...
I got a feeling something will form in the Gulf before one of these African waves makes it all the way across and survives.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

poof 'em all...


i hate trolls too.
to blog 1502 what about hurricane Allen???????
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I got a feeling something will form in the Gulf before one of these African waves makes it all the way across and survives.

I tend to think it will be from a late Sept/Oct leftover frontal system in the Gulf that will form into something...
I love trolls...
Quoting AllyBama:


your name matches your post..you should be so proud.


lol
k, i think i can say that all the good and smart ones that are usually on here are gone because of the children are out to play.

sheri
Quoting annjulie:
to blog 1502 what about hurricane Allen???????


Hurricane Allen was the strongest hurricane of the 1980 Atlantic hurricane season. It was one of the strongest hurricanes in recorded history, one of the few hurricanes to reach Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale on three separate occasions, and spent more time as a Category 5 than any other Atlantic hurricane. Allen is the second of only two hurricanes in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (310 km/h), after Hurricane Camille in 1969.

In Texas, the storm surge was reported as high as 12 feet (3.7 m) at Port Mansfield, though it may have been higher because the highest surges occurred in unpopulated and unmonitored sections of the Texas coast. A peak wind gust of 129 mph (208 km/h) was also measured at Port Mansfield. The storm caused 7 deaths in Texas and 17 in Louisiana (most resulting from the crash of a helicopter evacuating workers from an offshore platform). Allen spawned several tornadoes in Texas. One tornado caused $100 million in damage when it hit Austin, Texas, making it the costliest tropical cyclone-spawned tornado in recorded history. Overall, however, the storm caused limited damage in the United States due to its suddenly diminished power and because its highest tides and winds hit a sparsely-populated portion of the Texas coast.[1]

Allen caused $2.6 billion (2005 USD) in damages and killed at least 271 people throughout its course (including indirect deaths).[1]

Caribbean islands

In Barbados, preliminary damages were estimated to be $1.5 million (1980 USD). About 500 houses were either damaged or destroyed, total damages was moderate. No deaths were reported. St. Lucia sustained catastrophic damage from a strong category 3 hurricane. Eighteen people lost their lives as a result of the storm's passage. Although the damages was minor, one death in Guadeloupe was attributed to Allen.

In Martinique, damages was somewhat extensive as the storm passed 50 miles south of the island. The capital had 76 knots maximal gust during Allen.[citation needed]. The hurricane also divided the Isla de Aves of Venezuela into two smaller islets.

In the central Caribbean, Cayman Brac was hit by winds in excess of 115 mph (185 km/h) which caused considerable property damage. Eight deaths in Jamaica were attributed to Allen. Damage was very significant along the northeast coast, where the hurricane made its closest approach to the island. Also, though there were no reports of significant property damage in Cuba, 3 deaths were attributed to Allen.[citation needed]

Extensive damage occurred in Haiti due to high winds and flash flooding. Total costs for that country were estimated to be at more than $400 million (1980 USD). Roughly 60% of the nation's coffee crop was destroyed. In all, 220 people were killed and 835'000 were left homeless. In Port-au-Prince, 41 deaths were caused by tin roofs flying off and around 1200 were made homeless by flooding [4].

One bit of good news resulted from Allen's arrival -- it dumped 10 to 20 inches (510 mm) of rain in south Texas, ending a summer-long drought during the Heat Wave of 1980. Its storm total rainfall map is shown to the right.[5]
Wikipedia
I'll be back tomorrow after a few bans have taken effect. When does school start again ??
NOAA news had an article updating what happened to all the Pacific buoys, pleading with boaters not to destroy what's left of them..
tell that to the folks who died in it....
Quoting AllyBama:


your name matches your post..you should be so proud.

Quoting kmanislander:
I'll be back tomorrow after a few bans have taken effect. When does school start again ??

Here in Florida, the third week in August....
Quoting kmanislander:
I'll be back tomorrow after a few bans have taken effect. When does school start again ??
Not soon enough.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:


Here in Florida, the third week in August....


About when we will likely see the first system LOL

because it wasn't forcasted well.
Quoting AllyBama:


your name matches your post..you should be so proud.


Bama you go girl from another Bama girl.
Sweet Home Alabama.

Sheri
Quoting annjulie:
because it wasn't forcasted well.


it was forecasted well though. i disagreee
Quoting annjulie:
tell that to the folks who died in it....

Tell what? I was referring that the volcano had no effect on the hurricane season...it circled the globe above tropical longitudes during the 80 hurricane season.
nite nite sweet sheri
LOL ... WTF... what's going on? I am missing something?
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Tell what? i was referring that the volcano had no effect on the hurricane season...it circled the globe above tropical longitudes during the 80 hurricane season.


tell it like it is ann! Tampa FL you should be ashamed of your comment.
just checking You are correct... but then who am I?
LOL... I see the trolls are out in full force tonight.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
LOL ... WTF... what's going on? I am missing something?


easy on the language kid
and they shall be replaced with empty space just like whats in there head
Good Evening
Quoting SevereHurricane:
LOL... I see the trolls are out in full force tonight.


tell me where they live and ill exterminate em!
If school started tomorrow, it wouldn't be soon enough
Quoting annjulie:
WTF does shame or trolls got to do with a science dialogue???


tell me i want to know
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
If school started tomorrow, it wouldn't be soon enough

They would stay up past their curfew, if the parent set one....luckily we have the ignore button...
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

They would stay up past their curfew, if the parent set one....luckily we have the ignore button...


trolls dont have curfews silly. i am not a troll.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

They would stay up past their curfew, if the parent set one....luckily we have the ignore button...


Running outta room on my list
1548. miajrz
Quoting JustWx:
Now poetry is taking a beating
The wishcasters have found their unseating
While we rhyme as we lurk
They call us a jerk
But why cant this shear start retreating.

Dear JustWx, you're limerick's outstanding
And the No Thing is very demanding
But way south near the Glades
It's aces in spades
That I'm glad that my housse is upstanding.
Quoting miajrz:

Dear JustWx, you're limerick's outstanding
And the No Thing is very demanding
But way south near the Glades
It's aces in spades
That I'm glad that my housse is upstanding.


good poem

night guys. i need to go to bed. i need to replace some empty space like KEEPER said. night.
Wow I am a High school student and I am not a Troll.. So I take great offense....
Wow I am a High school student and I am not a Troll.. So I take great offense....
wow! nothing in the tropics and nothing but baseball for sports. cant wait for sept. storms and football!
Kman goodnight. I wish we could've had good night on here with out the children so we could all talk about what's going on with the tropics, but that is shot to HE double hockey sticks.

Sheri
ha ha ha
WunderYakuza is on the way with a big bad ban hammer for you this day
Honestly I belive that its not fair to generalize ..... like saying all americans are bad because of george bush..
The blog is getting shorter and shorter with each click of the Ignore User Button
KOTG ya'll have a good night. maybe the "children" will be back on their meds by tomorrow.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Wow I am a High school student and I am not a Troll.. So I take great offense....

I really don't consider HS students as kids...Young adults...'cause I remember having to deal with more adult situations than kids in HS...so not you in particular....
night alc

wave in Caribbean must be finally reaching shear.Loop
Looks like there's more where that came from.
I think its the same person ... they don't blog twice...must be a hacker... he's creating screennames...very fast...how does he do that?
Quoting annjulie:
nite nite sweet sheri


I'm not leaving. I am staying and gonna try to talk about the tropics.

Sheri


Long line of possible development according to this map:
disappear disappear into the night
take them away out of my sight
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Wow I am a High school student and I am not a Troll.. So I take great offense....


I am in High School too. Anyone who has been here long enough knows you aren't a troll. Believe me. you are omitted from the "go back to school" comments.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
I think its the same person ... they don't blog twice...must be a hacker... he's creating screennames...very fast...how does he do that?


It's Stormtop, or stormno, stormunderwear, many many of them tonnight I just thought i would let you know so you wouldn't be caught up in the childish games and we can talk about the tropics.

sheri
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Duck Storm, there is troll "stuff" flying everywhere in here tonight.
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Good evening. Beware the trolls.
evening stormw
& Lana is born in the EPAC. Soon to be in the central Pacific. Currently only one model has it hitting HI. The BAMD. She's been pulling it together quick. Click the pic to see her spin up.

I think I will say good night too. Nothing informative on here tonight. My granddaughter is also in HS but way more mature than some on here. They embarrass themselves by sounding like fools.
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Hey Storm, What cha doing?

Sheri
1573. That means that person must have no life.... how sad...
WunderYakuza has been email about the troll attack wait for it you will see it soon
1589. Drakoen
If it rapidly intensifies which the SHIPS give it a 50% chance of doing, Hawaii could be at much greater risk.
Good Evening Storm.
The 40 knot circle is shrinking and the 20 shear mark looks a bit unraveled...could shear be lessening in the Caribbean?
Shear Map
As of 10:52 pm EST A Troll Storm warning is in Effect .. Please Put your head under a pillow...or into the wall to escape the nonsense.... Trolls include: stormtopunderwear, stormtopgrandma, etc
hello stormw listen to the show great stuff
Drak~ I was thinking the same. Fairly significant given which model & why. The structure has really come around the last few hours. Convection looks hindered. It's about afternoon there now?
1588. NO COMMENT.... uve just proven my theory of relitivity
1588. NO COMMENT.... uve just proven my theory of relitivity
Quoting Chicklit:
The 40 knot circle is shrinking and the 20 shear mark looks a bit unraveled...could shear be lessening in the Caribbean?
Shear Map

Shear is decreasing in the Caribbean:
Great Job StormW.....true professional
Quoting Chicklit:
The 40 knot circle is shrinking and the 20 shear mark looks a bit unraveled...could shear be lessening in the Caribbean?
Shear Map


Chicklit I posted you the loop earlier today to show you the shear was suppose to drop....YES it is lessening.
Quoting StormW:


Good evening.


Hi Storm. Nice job on the show. Was my first time listening to Bob. Didn't know about it til now. BTW. Thanks ;)
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Excellent show tonight, Senior Chief.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Shear is decreasing in the Caribbean:


Wind shear looks much more favorable across the basin than it did a couple weeks ago.

done worryin' for the day.
up at 5 tomorrow and on the road.
Loop
Link
what the hell is all that?


Looks like the previous amplified wave helped shift the ITCZ above 10N- interesting...
Quoting StormW:


Hey Sheri! Not much...gonna send my sons to bed here shortly.

How have you been?


Storm Just fine was just listening to the news. I know this is off the subject but but Justice is served. This young boy was in my hubby fishing club and he was shot and killed last year 3 boys had been watching him for a few weeks and they seen where he cashed his check and ate on fridays, so they shot him and stole his cash from him cashing his pay check. Tonight on the news they said the boys that shot him was 14,17,17 know 15,18,18 and they wanted tried as youthful offenders and the judge denied there request they will be tried as adults. We've had shirts printed up on Corey and there's gonna be a Big Bass Tournament next May in his name and every year after, even Bass Pro is backing it we have a lot of big names backing it.
I am sorry for getting off the subject hope no one gets mad.

Sheri
Quoting StormW:
Thank all of you for asking great questions on the show tonight!


Did you like mine's? :)
did ev1 leave? Anyone out there?
I see where someone posted the shear is lessening in the Caribbean.

Sheri
i see that 97E has be come TD 6 E and then TS Enrique it made it
Storm, Thank You. Well I am calling it a night. I am tired. Hope all have a good night.

/sheri
1624. 19N81W
so anything to come out of the convection in the caribbean?
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Storm Just fine was just listening to the news. I know this is off the subject but but Justice is served. This young boy was in my hubby fishing club and he was shot and killed last year 3 boys had been watching him for a few weeks and they seen where he cashed his check and ate on fridays, so they shot him and stole his cash from him cashing his pay check. Tonight on the news they said the boys that shot him was 14,17,17 know 15,18,18 and they wanted tried as youthful offenders and the judge denied there request they will be tried as adults. We've had shirts printed up on Corey and there's gonna be a Big Bass Tournament next May in his name and every year after, even Bass Pro is backing it we have a lot of big names backing it.
I am sorry for getting off the subject hope no one gets mad.

Sheri


Sheri send me an email about this charity....i will post it on my site
1628. 19N81W
can I get some rain at least?
its a strange July
1629. BtnTx
Great show there StormW on the Barometer Bob show Senior Chiefster
Quoting 19N81W:
can I get some rain at least?
its a strange July
with a stranger august yet to come
good show but some problems in the chat trouble makers always the trouble makers
Quoting StormW:


I liked everyone's equally...they were all great.


I concur, sir.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see that 97E has be come TD 6 E and then TS Enrique it made it


No Taz, it became Lana not Enrique
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

"JOLINA" has acclerated and intensifed into a tropical storm while over the Philippine Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
=========================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Jolina located at 16.2°N, 128.8°E or 490 kms northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (35 knots) with gustiness up to 80 km/h (45 knots).

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Storm "Jolina" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional to frequent rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao particularly over the western sections which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
And all through the blog, not a creature stirred not even a KOG..... LOL
1636. 7544
darn =miss the interview with stom w had to work is there a recording avalible anyway thanks i a if so can someone post a link thanks again
Monster wave...for now.

How can I post a Video on the blog - have quite a good one taken on N Side Brac @ 6.59 AM on Sat Nov 08 as Paloma was roaring over Cayman Brac - certainly conveys the impression of awesome power
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


No Taz, it became Lana not Enrique

Yes, BurnedAfterPosting is right. As it crossed the 140W line, it strengthened into a tropical storm and was named Lana (after Kika last year), although it was first designated TD 6-E.
Won't take the image so I'll just post the shear link.

Link
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
And all through the blog, not a creature stirred not even a KOG..... LOL
iam still here just doing some work on my blog and lurking
StormW, I enjoyed the radio show tonight. Great job!
Maybe Obama bad for hurricanes? Did anyone ever think of this angle? Or maybe Joe Biden? Maybe Sotomayor? Maybe El Nino?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam still here just doing some work on my blog and lurking


How long before your blog is ready?
Have to make a few late-night comments, haven't been on in awhile :)

1) hate that i missed StormW on the show

2) Tropical Storm Lana may possibly get closer to Hawaii than one might think. Depends on how strong she gets - but either way will produce some good waves for the surfers.

3) Atlantic basin - eerily quiet! But it feels like this may be changing soon. I am going to stick with what I said in my last post.

We may see the beginnings of a storm/depression by Aug. 2nd or maybe even a named storm. More likely - the beginnings of one.

First couple of named storms will be fish.

September will be the month and will rival 2004.

Concluding thoughts: we are not having a slow season. Our thoughts have been jaded by the anomalies of the past 5 hurricane seasons. Just wait until Aug. 20-early Oct. We will see some storms - and some landfalls in Sept.

As always, just my opinion!!!

Well I've been thinking it over and I think we can cross Sotomayor off the list. But seriously how many big storms would there have been so far if McCain would have won? We'd probably all be wading through the streets right now or up on a roof waiting for Sean Penn to throw us a life preserver.

(This is my last post for tonight, then i'm off to shower, brush my teeth and into bed. Goodnite everyone.)
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Have to make a few late-night comments, haven't been on in awhile :)

1) hate that i missed StormW on the show

2) Tropical Storm Lana may possibly get closer to Hawaii than one might think. Depends on how strong she gets - but either way will produce some good waves for the surfers.

3) Atlantic basin - eerily quiet! But it feels like this may be changing soon. I am going to stick with what I said in my last post.

We may see the beginnings of a storm/depression by Aug. 2nd or maybe even a named storm. More likely - the beginnings of one.

First couple of named storms will be fish.

September will be the month and will rival 2004.

Concluding thoughts: we are not having a slow season. Our thoughts have been jaded by the anomalies of the past 5 hurricane seasons. Just wait until Aug. 20-early Oct. We will see some storms - and some landfalls in Sept.

As always, just my opinion!!!



1. Yeah I missed it too, but I assume there will be a link. I'd like to see it.

2. They'll love the surf if so.

3. Every day is a bit closer to prime time.

4.Beginnings of a named storm by Aug 2nd? Where and how?

5. With the ridge, how could the storm be a fish?
Quoting LiveFromTheCarolinas:
Well I've been thinking it over and I think we can cross Sotomayor off the list. But seriously how many big storms would there have been so far if McCain would have won? We'd probably all be wading through the streets right now or up on a roof waiting for Sean Penn to throw us a life preserver.

(This is my last post for tonight, then i'm off to shower, brush my teeth and into bed. Goodnite everyone.)


Individuals do not influence the weather.
Quoting Elena85Vet:


1. Yeah I missed it too, but I assume there will be a link. I'd like to see it.

2. They'll love the surf if so.

3. Every day is a bit closer to prime time.

4.Beginnings of a named storm by Aug 2nd? Where and how?

5. With the ridge, how could the storm be a fish?


If you look at Storm Ws blog - he hints that some of the tropical waves off the African coast may have a shot. The SAL is moistening up a bit. The ridge will move any waves/storms westward, however, they will recurve before hitting the east coast. The models have been trending towards recurvature lately. Hence fish! However, this will probably not be the case in September.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Individuals do not influence the weather.


TY!
Korithe Man - where's your sense of humor? He was obviously just joking..
Quoting tennisgirl08:


If you look at Storm Ws blog - he hints that some of the tropical waves off the African coast may have a shot. The SAL is moistening up a bit. The ridge will move any waves/storms westward, however, they will recurve before hitting the east coast. The models have been trending towards recurvature lately. Hence fish! However, this will probably not be the case in September.



If something were to form by Aug 2nd wouldn't the ridge make it more likely to be an east coast hit? 10 - 14 days out I can see your point. JMO
Does anybody know what the % is for storms to go into the gulf compared to the east coast this year?
Quoting Elena85Vet:


If something were to form by Aug 2nd wouldn't the ridge make it more likely to be an east coast hit? 10 - 14 days out I can see your point. JMO


The beginnings of a storm by Aug. 2nd would mean it would be a slow mover and development would be very slow to occur. It may take a very close track to the East coast. However, don't forget the strong trofs that have been moving eastward across the U.S. this season. Any slight movement by the ridge could dramatically change a hurricane's track. And, an incoming trof would help push the storm out to sea. I truly believe that if there is an East coast landfall, it will happen in September.

Furthermore, I quote Storm W to support my belief that we will see the beginnings of a depression or a storm by Aug. 2nd:

"The second wave near 32W stands out nicely on visible and RGB satellite imagery. The wave seems to be high amplitude, and a distinct inverted "V" signature is noted in satellite imagery. The most recent Quikscat pass indicates this may have a small, broad low level circulation associated with it. This feature however is surrounded by African dust, although does not appear to have entrained any of the dust thus far. There is at the moment a lack of any significant convection with this wave. I am not expecting development from this, at least in the short term, however upper level winds are forecast to be mostly conducive for tropical development through the next 96 hours. I will continue to monitor this wave as it moves westward for any significant changes. Development of this, or any wave for that matter, would be a slow occurance, given the downward moition phase of the MJO over the Atlantic Basin.

One area that does catch my attention a little more this morning is the area of convection that has moved off the African coast during the last 12 hours. Close up satellite loop imagery from EUMETSAT indicates the area of convection located near 10.5N;20W has become somewhat organized during the past 2 hours. Utilizing various satellite channels from EUMETSAT, cyclonic rotation is noted with this area. Satellite imagery would also seem to indicate that convection has increased during the last 2 hours. This area will be interesting to watch to see if convection can stay with thias area during the next 24 hours. Again, as mentioned previously, the upper level winds are forecast to be mostly conducive for tropical development over the next 96 hours. I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes during this time."


storm surge - about equal chances
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Korithe Man - where's your sense of humor? He was obviously just joking..


I thought that might be the case, but I gave him the benefit of the doubt. It's difficult, after all, to differentiate between satire and seriousness on the internet.
Nice shot of that convection over West Africa (75,000 ft anvil cloud) taken from International Space Station.

from: Link (larger image there)

Quoting KoritheMan:


I thought that might be the case, but I gave him the benefit of the doubt. It's difficult, after all, to differentiate between satire and seriousness on the internet.


And we do sure have a lot of satire on this blog!! That is for sure!!
Quoting stormsurge39:
Does anybody know what the % is for storms to go into the gulf compared to the east coast this year?


Depends where the storm forms. The east coast is hot for a strike now due to a ridge. In the next couple of weeks there will be a trough which makes a storm a fish or a west gulf coast hit. JMO
Quoting tennisgirl08:


And we do sure have a lot of satire on this blog!! That is for sure!!


True that.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Nice shot of that convection over West Africa (75,000 ft anvil cloud) taken from International Space Station.

from: Link



That's a beauty. Thanks for the pic.
Tennis girl how much of a % would u put on the wave over Afica becoming a TD by aug.2. Also you said it could turn out to sea. I keep reading about the bermuda high steering systems west. Are you talking about way before it gets there? I obviously dont understand.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Tennis girl how much of a % would u put on the wave over Afica becoming a TD by aug.2. Also you said it could turn out to sea. I keep reading about the bermuda high steering systems west. Are you talking about way before it gets there? I obviously dont understand.


Read what she said again. She did not say that tropical cyclogenesis would occur on August 2, rather, that the beginnings of it could, meaning that it could start showing signs of organization then.
Thanks Korithe but i did not say WOULD either!Im sure tennisgirl understands what im asking!
ok i did use the word would, but you took it out of context and made it sound like something else.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Tennis girl how much of a % would u put on the wave over Afica becoming a TD by aug.2. Also you said it could turn out to sea. I keep reading about the bermuda high steering systems west. Are you talking about way before it gets there? I obviously dont understand.


30-50% that the wave at 35W will start showing signs of organization as it moves westward. If not this wave, then maybe the monster wave over Africa right now will emerge and go straight to TD status - depending on the conditions once it gets there.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Read what she said again. She did not say that tropical cyclogenesis would occur on August 2, rather, that the beginnings of it could, meaning that it could start showing signs of organization then.


She was pretty clear.

"We may see the beginnings of a storm/depression by Aug. 2nd or maybe even a named storm. More likely - the beginnings of one."




Thank you tennis girl
Storm Surge - sorry forgot to answer your question about the ridge. If the wave at 35W forms, it will make it very close to the East coast. But will recurve before then. This could be due to two possible factors:

1)strong trough moving off the east coast
2) slight shift in ridge

If the monster wave over Africa right now emerges and forms a TD, it will start moving more northerly/NW and will eventually recurve. More organized storms tend to do that earlier on. Now, if it was September - I would be very concerned about a possible landfall.
LOL Some of you are a trip! READ 1662 again you SHOULD see that % means maybe and WOULD means what WOULD she say? unbelievable LOL
Thanks again tennis girl
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks again tennis girl


your welcome! These are just my opinions. But I do think we will see some action soon!!

Night all.
good morning wunderworld couple little spins out there in the atlantic mdr but nothing i can hang my big hat on. at least there are some showers and a few thunderstorms this morning.
Central Pacific National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE LANA (EP062009)
9:00 AM UTC July 31 2009
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Lana (997 hPa) located at 13.3N 144.6W or 715 NM east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 17 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
75 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.6N 147.0W - 60 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 14.1N 149.8W - 65 knots (SSHS-1 Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.1N 155.5W - 60 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.0N 161.0W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
1675. IKE
TGIF cyberspace...the end of July, 2009.

Looking at the computer models....

00Z CMC shows no storms in the Atlantic through August 6th.

00Z NOGAPS shows no storms in the Atlantic through August 7th.

00Z ECMWF shows no storms in the Atlantic through August 10th.

00Z GFS shows no storms in the Atlantic through August 16th.
Morning Ike.Quite a light show over here this morning. Had to get out ofbed, make coffee, and watch awhile.....lol
Beautiful morning in Barbados, few clouds, sunny.

Going outside to get some fresh air and drink my coffee.

Have a good day, peoples.
Good Morning

The less hopeful and least impatient persons will rebroadcast aspects about August and the hurricane season today. I'm not a big fan of re-runs so with that in mind, have a great day all. No tropical update today, but you can go to my archives to read up on past topics.
1679. aquak9
G'morning all.

Ike, do you/we realize how utterly amazing post 1675 is??
Good morning all...had quite the storm at about 230am, about 3 hours ago. Say one report of winds over 40. Def woke me up.
1681. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
G'morning all.

Ike, do you/we realize how utterly amazing post 1675 is??


Yes. There's nothing out there.

Great news.
1682. IKE
And good morning to everyone.

1683. aquak9
Just looking at the date of the post, Ike, remembering Seasons%u2122 past...no feelings of regret for the lack of activity.

Wish we could wrap that post up, and give it to ourselves again in another month. And a month after that, too.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
1685. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Just looking at the date of the post, Ike, remembering Seasons%u2122 past...no feelings of regret for the lack of activity.

Wish we could wrap that post up, and give it to ourselves again in another month. And a month after that, too.


I picked 10-4-2 as season totals. I see no way we reach ten storms. This is the complete opposite, so far, of 2005.
interesting that the carib. system is beginning to reenergize alittle could be a boc system am looking for the large amplitude wave to pulse just north of the greater antillias sunday night monday
You can catch StormW's interview on Barometer Bob's show on Bob's podcasts. Listening to it now.

http://barometerbobshow.com/podcast/index.php
Some persons really have nothing to do. The season is quiet and yet they are commenting on it 24/7. Jesus, IKE, talk about something else or spend a nice day at the beach, the season will start when it's ready not because you picked some dates. And if the season is so slow, why comment on it every minute? I could bet 500 bucks that IKE and others won't have that same tone or attitude when the next invest forms, so I don't get why they are pretending like a quiet season is so good.
'morning all! :)

I'm putting the final kibash on the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector and Alley animations so that they can be released tonight.

I stayed away from watching the animation play out for as long as I could, but this morning...I gave in and watched the entire month (sans today) play out.

I'm renaming the ITCZ to the AWDZ after what I saw on the Alley animation.

AWDZ stands for African Wave Destruction Zone.

Every single system that came off of the continent was detonated into oblivion. It was one of the most interesting things I've seen in awhile.

I'm sure you'll find great interest too in the long loops.

The animations should be loaded up on YouTube and processed somewhere between 11 PM and midnight EDT.

See ya'll again, then! :)
Have another GREAT 0,0,0 day, ya'll! :)
Wow Ike, I thought they were all on last night and would have gotten back on their meds by now. I guess we will have to put up with them today as well
Barometer Bob said to look out for the MJO. He said that the MJO's timing is bad. It comes around next week in the GOM and covers the entire Atlantic through September. He said by September 30 we could have 8 named storms, and thats a storm every week. He also said the season is not a dud becuz its not November 30. Many of us have been saying this over and over but I guess seeing is believing for some folks here. I dont think many grasp the danger of 2009 that those 8 storms have an incredible amount of ocean heat content to go with. Have your hurricane plan ready and do not become complacent.
Good morning
The tropics are very quiet this morning, and the models according to them are not showing anything developing, the next few days. i tend to disagree.what i have notice is that the MDR is getting more conducive for cyclogenesis, with low shear, weakening of the SAL and MSLP seems to be dropping. the easterlies are not as strong and the dry air is beggining to be eliminated. That being said i am looking at what appears to be a mid to low level circulation enveloped in a large area of moisture near 11N 34W. Both vis and wv sat pics are showing this feature. there is a anticyclone to the north east of this plume of convection. i will have to wait a little longer for more vis loops to make a definitive assesment of this area
Quoting Weather456:
Barometer Bob said to look out for the MJO. He said that the MJO's timing is bad. It comes around next week in the GOM and covers the entire Atlantic through September. He said by September 30 we could have 8 named storms, and thats a storm every week. He also said the season is not a dud becuz its not November 30. Many of us have been saying this over and over but I guess seeing is believing for some folks here. I dont think many grasp the danger of 2009 that those 8 storms have an incredible amount of ocean heat content to go with. Have your hurricane plan ready and do not become complacent.
The ATT homepage has one of their lead stories saying the same thing. Good post
1696. aquak9
Look, 2006, no one here this morning said the entire Season™ would be quiet. All hell could break loose in a few weeks; we don't know.

But it's comforting to wake up, and there's nothing out there. NOTHING. That nothing may last a week, or six weeks. Who knows, but I for one am thankful, very thankful for that small blessing.
Go Endeavour STS-127! Landing today! Payload Bay doors are closed.
1698. IKE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Morning all!
'mornin' WUB's -

The 1992 hurricane season had seen few storms until late August - when a rather weak tropical depression moved westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic on August 17th. The depression reached tropical storm strength late of August 17th - becoming Tropical Storm Andrew with 55-mph winds. As Andrew continued moving west - the storm was confronted with strong wind shear in the upper levels. By late on the 20th, Andrew appeared to be weakening, the winds had fallen to 45 mph, and it looked as if the storm would dissipate. For the few residents in south Florida who had even noticed Andrew on the evening news, a small weakening tropical storm, heading toward the open Atlantic - was not worth a second glance.
"Although members of the science community were greatly concerned about the extreme intensity of Andrew before landfall - it appeared most of the residents of south Dade county were unable to grasp the gravity of what Andrew would do to their world. This was painfully obvious the night before the storm - when local TV news media interviewed smiling south Dade residents taping up windows and bringing in lawn furniture. Some interviewed said they "hoped that Andrew would not upset their fruit gardens", but were "happy to have a day off from work" (Brown-1993). Less than 12 hours later, 175,000 people were homeless."

Endeavour gettin gcloser and closer to re-entry.
Landing at 10:47 AM EDT.
little less than 3 hours from now.
1703. IKE
After having a foot of rain in July...more is falling. Who needs a tropical system....

"Considering Andrew's intensity - the United States death toll of 23 was remarkably low. The fifteen fatalities in Florida were mostly due to the injuries sustained by flying debris or building collapse. Six of only eight Louisiana deaths happened on one commercial fishing boat lost at sea. Three fatalities were reported in the Bahamas."

1705. IKE
80% chance of rain today.
60% chance of rain tomorrow.
60% chance of rain Sunday.
1705. IKE 11:55 AM GMT on July 31, 2009
80% chance of rain today.
60% chance of rain tomorrow.
60% chance of rain Sunday.


lovely weekend for the gulfcoast....
Onto Last orbit for Endeavour.
1708. IKE
Quoting Nolehead:
1705. IKE 11:55 AM GMT on July 31, 2009
80% chance of rain today.
60% chance of rain tomorrow.
60% chance of rain Sunday.


lovely weekend for the gulfcoast....


Very little rain the last 2 days....perfect timing:(
Quoting Weather456:
Barometer Bob said to look out for the MJO. He said that the MJO's timing is bad. It comes around next week in the GOM and covers the entire Atlantic through September. He said by September 30 we could have 8 named storms, and thats a storm every week. He also said the season is not a dud becuz its not November 30. Many of us have been saying this over and over but I guess seeing is believing for some folks here. I dont think many grasp the danger of 2009 that those 8 storms have an incredible amount of ocean heat content to go with. Have your hurricane plan ready and do not become complacent.


yes 456 the heart of the season is yet to begin here is what i see for us then

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 2009
AUGUST OUTLOOK
6/9 STORMS
5/7 HURRICANES
3 MAJORS or more
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Onto Last orbit for Endeavour.


Hey CyberTed,

How 'bout givin' us a link for that.
Morning Folks..........Just waiting on Dr. M's outlook for the first two weeks of Aug (nutin) but noting that the WV loops are showing pleny of moisture slowly starting to cover the CV storm route along with the SAL and dry air just to the North. I would suspect that any CV systems that "might" try to form over the next few weeks, if any, would have a better chance if they stay south of the SAL layer (and dry air ingestion) during the formative stages as they make their way across....But who know when that will happen over the next four weeks..........
1713. OnlyTex
Bill Gates should analyze the AWDZ and put his money on that to save the world from tropical cyclones.
good morn stormw
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yes 456 the heart of the season is yet to begin here is what i see for us then

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 2009
AUGUST OUTLOOK
6/9 STORMS
5/7 HURRICANES
3 MAJORS or more


Pretty much what I'm guessing:
8/4/2

Predictions based on historical graphs:


1716. tkeith
My perspective of the first two months of the 09 season..."No news is Good news".
the dust is becoming weak
Link
1718. IKE
mikatnight...I think that was his forecast for August, in jest?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good morn stormw
KOTG morning, are we hoping the meds were ditributed this morning?
Quoting IKE:
mikatnight...I think that was his forecast for August, in jest?


Yep, I missed that. Went right over my head. Sometimes I'm not the brightest bulb in the socket. Thanks Ike.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


we enjoyed you on Bob's show last night!
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
KOTG morning, are we hoping the meds were ditributed this morning?
yes they have been replaced with empty space just like whats in there head

lol
1723. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


we enjoyed you on Bob's show last night!


Ditto that. I just listened earlier this morning. Nice job on-air.
With all of the heat build up right now, as noted by 456 and others, that "first one" may well be a big one but a big question will be whether it will be a CV storm, or, one forming closer to home in the Caribbean or Gulf areas.
1725. lhwhelk
I enjoyed the video posted by (I think) CycloneOz yesterday, but had to agree with another poster that it was too long for the general public. This morning, an idea for a 30-second public service announcement popped into my head:
Picture of kids playing on beach and/or surfers in water. Text "It's great to live near the beach . . ."
Video clip of warning flags, tree in background, tree falls, text "BUT . . ."
Picture of devastation, destroyed house, text "What part of MANDATORY EVACUATION do you not understand?"
Just an idea from an occasional lurker.
1726. IKE
Quoting mikatnight:


Yep, I missed that. Went right over my head. Sometimes I'm not the brightest bulb in the socket. Thanks Ike.


I'm not either. I had to read it twice.
1729. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Thanks IKE!


You did a good job. That's both you and Dr. M(on WWL), I've heard on-air. You both did a good job. Made it understandable.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Storm, good morning.... great listening to you last night on Barometer Bob
doc should be posting new blog soon i reckon interested to see he's take on things
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Good Morning StormW...GREAT interview!!! Loved listening to it..:)
1735. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
doc should be posting new blog soon i reckon interested to see he's take on things


I'll guess...conditions should become more favorable by mid-Aug.


Quoting StormW:


Thanks Joanie!

I couldn't believe it when Bob mentioned that Jack Beven and some other forecasters at the NHC have read my work and are really impressed.


That has to make you feel good.
well no name storm this july


whats see whats aug has for us


will it be the same ???


whats find out
4 name storm 2 hurricane and 0 cat 3 or higher hurricanes
Quoting StormW:


Thanks Joanie!

I couldn't believe it when Bob mentioned that Jack Beven and some other forecasters at the NHC have read my work and are really impressed.


WOW! I know you are very happy about that SormW! You really do a great job and I respect your forcasts!!!
1735. IKE 12:46 PM GMT on July 31, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
doc should be posting new blog soon i reckon interested to see he's take on things

IKE 12:46 PM GMT on July 31, 2009
I'll guess...conditions should become more favorable by mid-Aug.


as long as its after jfv's birthday j/k
lol
Australian weather bureau sees El Nino by Sept-Nov

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's Bureau of Meteorology on Friday predicted that an El Nino weather system in the Pacific Ocean would be established by September-November at the latest.

The bureau said there was now agreement between international weather models that an El Nino, which can bring drought conditions to Australia and weaken Asian monsoons, would be established by the southern hemisphere spring.

"The same six models...predict established El Nino conditions (across a range of climate indices) by the southern spring at the latest," said the bureau in its latest ENSO report.

"Given the high level of persistence (and hence predictability) in ENSO during the second half of the year, the probability of an El Nino event continuing to develop and maturing late in 2009 is high," it said.

El Nino, meaning "little boy" in Spanish, is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, and creates havoc in weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region.

For the latest report, see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
Morning StormW - Is there a link to replay the interview?
Hi UWalkTheMall

I'm just listening to the podcast because I couldn't listen to it live. The time difference makes it impossible :(
1746. Dakster
Stormw - I always knew you were the real deal... Now you have the proof that the NHC believes in you and thinks you are a real MET....

It should be nice to have been vindicated.
Quoting Tazmanian:
4 name storm 2 hurricane and 0 cat 3 or higher hurricanes
Based on what data???
Quoting StormW:


Barometer Bob Podcast July 30, 2009


Thanks Storm.
Quoting taistelutipu:
Hi UWalkTheMall

I'm just listening to the podcast because I couldn't listen to it live. The time difference makes it impossible :(


Hello taistelutipu. I am listening now also.
Hey Storm, did you get my update?
Why is it does it seem like the computer models having really been showing anything the past couple of months? Do they see something we dont or are they having gridlock problems?
Quoting StormW:


No...for some reason I didn't.


I have resent it. Check your mail.
The wave over Africa doesnt look as impressive today. Does it look like its going to meet the same fate of all the other ones?
Space Shuttle given GO
for de-orbit burn to land at KSC 10:48 Eastern

http://www.nasa.gov/145590main_Digital_Media.asx
Is there an index for weather terminology?
Here's the link to the Penn State E-Map Wall StormW refers to in the BB Show:
Link

BTW, found Mr. Walsh to be very knowledgable and enjoyed him the show (my first time). Think Bob's right about you having a "knack".
1761. WxLogic
Morning...
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is there an index for weather terminology?

If you click on Stormwatch's face you can go to his site where he has most of them listed and defined.
GO FOR DE-ORBIT BURN!! GODSPEED SPACE SHUTTLE ENDEAVOUR!
StormW one of the Tampa stations someday should put you on-air to do a tropical update at least you won't say go on a cruise all the time :)
Thanks firefly
Hi WxLogic,
Did you see the shuttle pass over last night at 9:25PM, get ready for Sonic Boom.
Does anybody have any thoughts about the wave over Afica?
1768. WxLogic
Quoting sporteguy03:
Hi WxLogic,
Did you see the shuttle pass over last night at 9:25PM, get ready for Sonic Boom.


Hi Sport... unfortunately not... :(
I read somewhere the last time a TD didnt form until Aug was 1992. It turned out to be Andrew. Hope we dont have a repeat of that.
1771. 19N81W
please tell me that is not a low forming in the central caribbean?..
The wave over Africa?
Shuttle will be at 400,000 feet going 25 times the speed of sound upon re-entry. Give 'em a good ride Endeavor...keep 'em safe and sound.
1775. 19N81W
hey guys how close does the shuttle pass overhead Grand Cayman...on the track I see it is pretty close..
Maybe this has been discussed before but I missed it>
Among or in addition to the other inhibiting factors discussed here appearing to make this years season start a slow one, how does the deep layer flow this year so far over the tropical N ATl compare to past more active years? If the Easterly flow farther South is faster, does this create an anticyclonic tendency strong enough to counteract the Coriolis effect over the areas we usually look for development in (while something like SAL may also be inhibiting development further N). I ask this because it looks to me like the wave currently in the Carib should spin at some level more than it appears to be. Discussion? Links (especially deep layer anom winds for MDR)?

Hurricane Engine: Basic Operating Manual
1777. WxLogic
Quoting 19N81W:
please tell me that is not a low forming in the central caribbean?..


No... it not a low that is trying to form. Cirrus cloud movement and low level CU/AC movement might have given you a perception that there might be a low... but no low for sure. :)
I guess the wave over Afica isnt a concern. thanks anyway!
45 minutes to TD (touchdown)
Quoting stormsurge39:
...Re: Africa waves. Does it look like its going to meet the same fate of all the other ones?


The AWDZ is literally detonating these waves. You'll see what I mean tonight when I release the July 2009 GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector & Alley animations.

Talk about a TC killer, man...that part of the Atlantic is acting like a buzz saw right now! (...and has been for the entire month of July!)
Wow, that interview was very informative. Thanks for posting also the links mentioned by StormW during the chat e.g. the e-Wall. I think I have to listen to it again to filter out all the references. Really great stuff, especially the explanation how he makes his forecasts and when he is talking about his training and experience as a forecaster.
My August forecast:
3 storms
2 hurricanes
1 major

First storm on August 11th.
Less than 10 minutes to Entry Interface
1784. NOLAGuy
Good Morning, I am new to this blog and wish to introduce myself. I check this site each day in late summer and into fall to keep abreast of possible developments in the tropics. I live in New Orleans.
Thanks for your comment Cyclone. I hope your right. I also think that eventually were going to have to deal with the inevitable, of one nasty storm somewhere on land in the Alantic basin.
The acronym AWDZ (African Wave Destruction Zone) does have a pronounciation: Pronounce it as "Aw-Dudz"
Hey Storm:
I'm listening to your broadcast right now and I must say I have been a big fan of yours for 2 years now. Now I know your voice and I feel that I know you personally. You are my "weather" hero!!!!
Quoting NOLAGuy:
Good Morning, I am new to this blog and wish to introduce myself. I check this site each day in late summer and into fall to keep abreast of possible developments in the tropics. I live in New Orleans.


Welcome
Quoting NOLAGuy:
Good Morning, I am new to this blog and wish to introduce myself. I check this site each day in late summer and into fall to keep abreast of possible developments in the tropics. I live in New Orleans.


Welcome
1790. Patrap
Welcome NOLAguy,..uptown Homie here
Flying at 60,900 mph ...less than 1 min to interface
temp building around shuttle to 2,500 degrees F
1793. SQUAWK
Quoting CycloneOz:
The acronym AWDZ (African Wave Destruction Zone)does have a pronounciation: Pronounce it as "Aw-Dudz"


Thank you, that was makin me nutz! Google was no help at all. LOL
Quoting StormW:


LOL!

Just for giggles and grins, I emailed the Chief Meteorologist at Channel 10 here locally...asked if she could use a hurricane forecaster...never heard back from her.



You reckon she didn't want you stealing her limelight, or just didn't take you seriously?
I got about half way through your interview on Barometer Bob's show, so far quite impressive. It just goes to show what can result when you combine hobby with passion. I note the emphasis on your inate ability and agree some of it must be there. However, the pure driven effort to learn everything you know in something as fluid as weather is impressive. Thanks for your selfless contributions of knowledge to we the weather community StormW.
1797. SQUAWK
Quoting mikatnight:
Flying at 60,900 mph ...less than 1 min to interface


BUM DOPE
1798. Patrap
Quoting mikatnight:
Flying at 60,900 mph ...less than 1 min to interface


..er,the Orbiter Max Speed at Interface is 17,500 mph.or Orbital Speed.
very impressive tropical wave nearing the cape verde islands could this be the wave the models are developing by next week
Quoting 19N81W:
hey guys how close does the shuttle pass overhead Grand Cayman...on the track I see it is pretty close..


Looks very close:

Dang!

The Space Shuttle looks like it's going to go right over Grand Cayman!

Wow!
Looks like Endeavor's track goes right over us in Palm Beach County...wonder if we'll be able to see it?
Quoting StormW:


I'm flattered!

Now I can finish my analysis once I quit blushing!!


Yes.....
Flying over Galapagos Is now
Looks like the shuttle's going to go real close to Siesta Key, stillwaiting! :)
Hey HJ!

Wave to the shuttle for me as it goes over Ft. Myers! :)
1810. 19N81W
I wonder if they will top those thunderstorms over Costa Rica and Panama:)
18 minutes from s america to fla...that's movin' baby
Why does the shuttle re-entry track take it directly over the closest point between Cuba and the U.S.?

Hmmmmm......
Boom Boom, Grand Cayman! :)
1814. cg2916
Quoting mikatnight:
18 minutes from s america to fla...that's movin' baby

Yeah, at the launch it gets up to two miles per second. Now that's movin'.
Quoting cg2916:

Yeah, at the launch it gets up to two miles per second. Now that's movin'.


Yeah, Escape Velocity, which is approximately 34 times the speed of sound (mach 34).
Over Florida now...
When should the shuttle pass over Grand Cayman ? Just heard a "boom" and wondered if that was it.
1818. Patrap
Orbital speed,17,500 mph at Main Engine Cutoff,after 8.5 minutes of Powered Flight is 5 miles a second,or 17,500 Mph.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
When should the shuttle pass over Grand Cayman ? Just heard a "boom" and wondered if that was it.


Way past there now, so may well have been the Shuttle.
Endeavor within site of KSC now.
"Endeavor, take air data" is code for

"Endeavor, transmit digital images of Cuba"
Lana
1823. 19N81W
We heard it hear in Cayman!!!!!!!!!!!
Booom!
So cool....didnt see it too much cloud but went out just in time!
thanks guys!
1824. Patrap
Approaching the HAC..

1825. Patrap
Quoting CycloneOz:
"Endeavor, take air data" is code for

"Endeavor, transmit digital images of Cuba"


In no way that's Possible from the Cockpit CT.
Thats BS,..why even say something Like that?

Quoting 19N81W:
We heard it hear in Cayman!!!!!!!!!!!
Booom!
So cool....didnt see it too much cloud but went out just in time!
thanks guys!
I work at the Airport PO and I heard it too.
Pretty cool booms there! :)
boom boom that rap song that starts with boom boom some latin americans hate gringos but they sure love our music boom boom is #1
1830. 19N81W
Wow what a rush....dead stick from orbit to a runway in florida...as a pilot that is pretty cool...to go from mach 25 to 225 knots...guess you gotta get it right
Quoting Patrap:


In no way that's Possible from the Cockpit CT.
Thats BS,..why even say something Like that?



To get a laugh, of course. :D
1832. cg2916
Almost there...
I heard to loud booms that shook my house from the shuttle in lake worth, Florida but couldn't see it because of clouds
Good Lord I thought someone was breaking in!
I heard the booms in West Palm Beach, Florida!
1835. Patrap
you know americans never turn down a chance to spy on someone
1837. cg2916
I just saw a bird fly in front of it... what about you guys. Oh, and I live in SC, too far away for the booms.
Man, that shuttle system is still way cool, even after all these years and with '70's technology.

Too bad we're watching one of the last flights! :(
1839. Patrap
Welcome Home Endeavour...

I knew the Shuttle was landing but I didn't think it was going to go right over me. I almost called 911...Good Lord that was scary. LOL
1841. cg2916
TOUCHDOWN! 6 points for the Shuttle... lol.
:)
Whoa
1843. Patrap
"Houston Endeavour,wheels stop",..

Well done NASA and Endeavor crew. Welcome home.
Welcome Home Endeavor! Watching that NEVER gets old.

thanks for the link Patrap.

Listen to it pant like a dog....cool!
1847. Patrap
Those sounds are the APU's Running,their Exhaust ports are at the Base of the rudder where it meets the Fuselage.
Quoting Patrap:
Welcome Home Endeavour...



Ditto
Lots can happen in 15 minutes.
From the NASA blog as Endeavour landed:

#
Touchdown!
Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:49:00 AM CDT

Endeavour has landed!


#
Flare and Gear Down
Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:47:59 AM CDT

Polansky pitches the nose of Endeavour up to slow Endeavour for touchdown on the runway. Landing gear down and locked.


#
Endeavour Gliding Over Kennedy!
Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:45:01 AM CDT

The shuttle has just flown overhead here at Kennedy and Polansky is making his final line up to the runway.


#
Five Minutes
Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:43:52 AM CDT

Endeavour continues on its prescribed landing path toward Kennedy. Polansky will guide the shuttle along the heading alignment cylinder in about two minutes.


#
Endeavour at Mach 2.5
Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:42:12 AM CDT

The shuttle has slowed to Mach 2.5. Six minutes to landing.


#
10 Minutes to Landing
Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:38:22 AM CDT

Endeavour will glide over Cuba before heading up Florida's Atlantic coast on its way to Kennedy. Landing is still on schedule for 10:48 a.m. Shuttle is 443,000 feet above Earth.


#
Roll Reversal
Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:36:37 AM CDT

Moving at 11,000 mph and slowing, Endeavour is turning to the right now to conclude a sweeping S-turn that helps the shuttle dissipate speed and energy. 450 miles to go.


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Peak Heating
Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:29:27 AM CDT

Endeavour is now in the area of maximum heating. It will last another six minutes or so as the shuttle slows tremendously from its orbital speed of Mach 25. Polansky and Hurley work carefully to make sure they keep up the shuttle's energy to glide all the way back to Florida and land safely. All systems are working as they should.


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First Roll
Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:25:28 AM CDT

Steering through the thickening atmosphere, Polansky and the seven crew members are watching the plasma form around the spacecraft as the heat shield insulates the craft from the effects.
1851. IKE
1852. cg2916
I'm glad I don't live in Florida. I get really spooked by loud noises.
very impressive tropical wave heading towards the cape verde looks like we may have something next week
1854. IKE
Good thing about tomorrow being Aug. 1st...no one can use the excuse...it's early in the season, it's suppose to be quiet, excuse anymore...
1855. IKE
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!
1856. RickWPB
Quoting mikatnight:
Looks like Endeavor's track goes right over us in Palm Beach County...wonder if we'll be able to see it?


I was outside doing yard work in West Palm Beach. Didn't see it, but sure heard 2 sonic booms!
Quoting cg2916:
I'm glad I don't live in Florida. I get really spooked by loud noises.


Then you'd really hate going through a hurricane, since noise is one of their most palpable aspects ("A freight train on the roof" is an oft quoted analogy).
A little tidbit of hurricane info last year.

The most active day in last year's hurricane season was September 2, when Gustav was a Tropical Depression inland over Louisiana, Hanna was a Hurricane north of Hispaniola, Ike was a strengthening Tropical Storm over the Central Atlantic, and Tropical Depression Ten(Josephine) was just forming.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Hey HJ!

Wave to the shuttle for me as it goes over Ft. Myers! :)


We didn't hear the boom today. Usually it sounds like somebody dropping a bowling ball on the roof and it always freaks the dogs and my wife out! Oh well I'm just glad they're home safe. It's always a treat to see it takeoff or land...
wtf? 2000 comments is maximum (regarding latest entry)??

I was gonna say, EATL is really heating up today. I'd watch the waves at 45w, 25w, and the one at 10e has a closed surface low over land.

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