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Late-Season Tropical Storm Sandra Could Strike Mexico and Drench Texas

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:05 PM GMT on November 24, 2015

Tropical Storm Sandra formed on Tuesday morning in the record-warm Pacific waters off the south coast of Mexico, about 570 miles south of Manzanillo. Sandra joins last week's Tropical Storm Rick as one of the latest-forming tropical storms in the history of the Eastern Pacific. Since accurate records began in 1949 (with higher-quality satellite records beginning in 1971), the Eastern Pacific has seen only six tropical storms form after November 18: December 5, 1983 (Winnie), November 27, 1971 (Sharon), November 27, 1951 (Unnamed), November 24, 2015 (Sandra), November 20, 2011 (Kenneth), and November 19, 2015 (Rick). None of these storms hit land. If Sandra hits land, it will be the latest landfalling Eastern Pacific storm on record.

Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that Sandra had a large and steadily organizing area of heavy thunderstorms. Steering currents favor a path to the west or west-northwest parallel to the coast and far enough offshore to prevent heavy rains in Mexico through Thursday. On Friday, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Sandra will turn the storm to the north and northeast, but will also bring high wind shear, weakening the storm as it approaches the tip of the Baja Peninsula.

Conditions are quite favorable for Sandra to intensify over the next couple of days, with record-warm sea surface temperatures of 29-30°C (84-86°F) and wind shear of less than 10 knots beneath an upper-level high arcing around the storm. The official NHC forecast issued at 10 am EST Tuesday brings Sandra to Category 2 strength, with peak winds of 100 mph by Thursday. NHC’s Rapid Intensification Index shows roughly a 50-50 chance that Sandra will strengthen by at least 30 knots in the next 24 hours. If Sandra does reach Category 2 strength, it will be the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane known to exist so late in the year. All of the six cyclones above were tropical storms or Category 1 hurricanes except for Kenneth, which hit Category 4 strength on November 24, 2011. Kenneth is the latest-occurring major hurricane in Eastern Pacific records.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Sandra.

With Sandra virtually certain to be a tropical storm or hurricane on Thanksgiving Day, this year will mark the first time NHC has ever had to issue Thanksgiving Day advisories for an Eastern Pacific named storm. However, NHC has issued Thanksgiving Day advisories for Atlantic storms on a number of occasions. The last time was November 24 during the year--you guessed it--2005, during the insane Hurricane Season of 2005, when Tropical Storm Delta was active during Thanksgiving weekend in the far eastern Atlantic.

Sandra may complicate heavy rain threat over Southern Plains
The biggest impacts from Sandra may occur from Texas to Arkansas, where a prolonged heavy rain episode late this week seems likely to be enhanced by Sandra’s remnants. A strong upper-level low settling over the U.S. Southwest will help pull Sandra northeastward, and the storm’s moisture will flow atop a very shallow cold air mass that will spill across the Southern Plains later this week. Such setups involving Eastern Pacific hurricanes are notorious for giving the region some of its heaviest rains on record, but they are far more typical of September or October than late November. Localized flooding may become a major travel headache, as rainfall totals of 3-8” are expected from Thursday through Sunday over central and north Texas, southeast Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas (see Figure 2 below). These rains will fall over areas that have been doused repeatedly over the last few months. With 50.75” of rain for the year through Tuesday morning, Dallas-Fort Worth area may well break its all-time annual precipitation record of 53.54” (set in 1991) before November is done.

On the northwest edge of the heavy rain swath, there should be a parallel strip with low-level temperatures cold enough for mostly light but widespread freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow, with an initial round from Thanksgiving Day into Friday and perhaps a second batch over the weekend as another lobe rotates around the sprawling upper-level low. Frozen precipitation is most likely from the Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma across much of Kansas to eastern Nebraska.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has a new Monday afternoon post, Stormy Thanksgiving / Potential Flash Flooding and Blizzard Conditions for Texas.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson




Figure 2. Projected 5-day precipitation totals (rain and melted snow/sleet) for the period from 7 am EST Tuesday, November 24, through Sunday, November 29.

Hurricane Extreme Weather Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Sandy Rainbow Loop dee Loop

Thanks Docs! Looking forward to a soggy, grey Thanksgiving here in SE Texas....
Local NWS NOLA/SLIDELL morning Disco on the Pacific Moisture from Sandy coming in downstream.


Long term... 
confidence in the latter portion of the forecast period continues
to be lower than normal. There are still some fairly significant
differences between the operational models going into the
weekend. Biggest differences have to do with the handling of an
upper low forecast to become cutoff from the main flow over
California or Nevada and how/when it will eventually rejoin the
westerlies. This low will be the driving force that brings the
next front into and possibly through the local area...maybe.

Both models agree that this system will ingest a significant
amount of tropical moisture from the east Pacific...resulting in
potential for heavy rain. This heavy rain has consistently been
forecast to primarily impact areas to our northwest as the surface
front stretches out from Texas into the middle Mississippi Valley
over the weekend...and that continues to be the case this morning.

Once the upper low starts moving...the GFS is more progressive
indicating a frontal passage through the local area on Monday.
Euro is not as progressive or strong with the system...and does
not depict a frontal passage for the local area until a secondary
shortwave swings through the area Wednesday. Given the high
degree of uncertainty...will continue to take more of an ensemble
approach. Taking this approach results in generally small
adjustments to the previous previous forecast package. Will
continue to indicate a slow spread of chance probability of precipitation across the
region from west to east during the second part of the weekend.
Temperatures forecast to remain near to above normal until a frontal
passage late Monday.
One for NATO...


Heads up Grothar, coded messages are incoming in Brussels and D.C. atm.

Thank You Messrs Henson and Masters and have a Happy Thanksgiving with your families and loved ones.

The potential downstream impacts for Sandra for Texas, etc, is almost identical to what happened with Patricia a few weeks ago given that persistent flow pattern from the E-Pac across Mexico into the SW Conus; this pattern has been there for about a month now. Given the record sst's for the E-Pac, the current El Nino jet pattern, and the recent good number of e-pac season storms (whether enso neutral as to the last several seasons or the current pattern), we should continues to see these types of trajectories, and Conus rain impacts, in future seasons with similar conditions in an El Nino year. Very interesting to see how these lower trajectory lows have interacted with the E-pac storm remnants in terms of trajectory and downstream rain issues for the US.



carried forward: Quoting 207. tampabaymatt:



The biggest issue with recently built homes in C FL right now pertains to the stucco exterior. The typical 2 story track home built in C FL right now has concrete block on the 1st floor and wood frame on the 2nd floor. What's happening to tons of homes is the stucco covering the 2nd story wood frame is failing due to poor installation. Residents are not staying on top of the cracks, so the problem gets worse as moisture intrudes and rots the wood. This is a multi-billion dollar problem right now in the state.

There are entire communities in W C FL that are suing some of the large home builders because they've had such significant problems: stucco cracks, foundation cracks, moisture intrusion, etc.., that they want the builder to buy them out. Just makes you wonder how strictly the codes are being enforced and how all of these homes are passing inspection. The cynical side of me thinks the inspection process is a joke, and all of these homes are passing just to get people in there that will pay property taxes.


Here in Illinois the inspections don't include housewraps, flashings, and siding. You are therefore depending on the skills and honesty of the contractors and sub-contractors. We have lots of problems with drainage planes and rotting studs. I suspect that it is impossible for inspectors to monitor the installations of these products, as they would have to camp-out at the worksite and watch every move. I bet it's a similar situation in Florida.
edit: I'm am independent builder. My homes have never had moisture problems. I do good work. The big builders can't get me. I worked for some of them in the past, as a Union Foreman, and they really suck! Small companies do better work. My current customers tell me that they can't find anybody like me anymore.
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Member Since: May 4, 2015 Posts: 2 Comments: 27
The cone moving towards Texas around the late-Sunday to Monday time frame in terms of the remnants:

Quoting 5. Patrap:

One for NATO...


Heads up Grothar, coded messages are incoming in Brussels and D.C. atm.




NATO is gonna let Turkey handle this on their own, watch them distance themselves as much as possible.
Quoting 10. VAbeachhurricanes:



NATO is gonna let Turkey handle this on their own, watch them distance themselves as much as possible.


Seems like everyone these days has a video recorder (or at least an i-phone) for "instant" videos and particularly in/near a war zone area; amazing that multiple videos are surfacing from a shoot-down event that probably lasted less than 10 minutes from the missile strike to the pilots (whether dead or alive) landing on the ground.
Quoting 7. ChiThom:

carried forward: Quoting 207. tampabaymatt:



The biggest issue with recently built homes in C FL right now pertains to the stucco exterior. The typical 2 story track home built in C FL right now has concrete block on the 1st floor and wood frame on the 2nd floor. What's happening to tons of homes is the stucco covering the 2nd story wood frame is failing due to poor installation. Residents are not staying on top of the cracks, so the problem gets worse as moisture intrudes and rots the wood. This is a multi-billion dollar problem right now in the state.

There are entire communities in W C FL that are suing some of the large home builders because they've had such significant problems: stucco cracks, foundation cracks, moisture intrusion, etc.., that they want the builder to buy them out. Just makes you wonder how strictly the codes are being enforced and how all of these homes are passing inspection. The cynical side of me thinks the inspection process is a joke, and all of these homes are passing just to get people in there that will pay property taxes.


Here in Illinois the inspections don't include housewraps, flashings, and siding. You are therefore depending on the skills and honesty of the contractors and sub-contractors. We have lots of problems with drainage planes and rotting studs. I suspect that it is impossible for inspectors to monitor the installations of these products, as they would have to camp-out at the worksite and watch every move. I bet it's a similar situation in Florida.
edit: I'm am independent builder. My homes have never had moisture problems. I do good work. The big builders can't get me. I worked for some of them in the past, as a Union Foreman, and they really suck! Small companies do better work. My current customers tell me that they can't find anybody like me anymore.
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Member Since: May 4, 2015 Posts: 2 Comments: 27


That's interesting and you bring up a good point regarding the inspection process. I don't know what the solution is, but something needs to be done in FL. There is a track home neighborhood going up near my home. I walk my dogs through it all the time and see young, immigrant workers essentially building the home unsupervised. The day after the foundation is poured, palettes of concrete block are stacked on top of it, never giving it a chance to cure properly. One day this summer, I observed a crew applying stucco while it was pouring rain outside. Again, it seemed like they were totally unsupervised. It just seems like more needs to be done to make these greedy builders ensure the homes are built well. Not just hire the cheapest labor they can find and come back when the house is built.
Quoting 4. RitaEvac:

Russian Jet shot down by Turkey



The pilots were allegedly shot dead as they parachuted down by the Free Syrian Army, a war crime.
Quoting 13. MahFL:



The pilots were allegedly shot dead as they parachuted down by the Free Syrian Army, a war crime.



CNN reported earlier that the pilots parachuted safely to the ground. Were the gun shots fatal?
Quoting 12. tampabaymatt:


That's exactly what they do. They hire immigrant carpenters here, too. They can climb ladders, and swing a hammer. They are hard workers. They usually do not understand the technical details of keeping the weather out of the house.
edit: retracted
Quoting 12. tampabaymatt:



That's interesting and you bring up a good point regarding the inspection process. I don't know what the solution is, but something needs to be done in FL. There is a track home neighborhood going up near my home. I walk my dogs through it all the time and see young, immigrant workers essentially building the home unsupervised. The day after the foundation is poured, palettes of concrete block are stacked on top of it, never giving it a chance to cure properly. One day this summer, I observed a crew applying stucco while it was pouring rain outside. Again, it seemed like they were totally unsupervised. It just seems like more needs to be done to make these greedy builders ensure the homes are built well. Not just hire the cheapest labor they can find and come back when the house is built.


I just had my roof redone. They fixed/repaired any areas that needed repairing and put down new concrete tiles. The main workers (hard labor) was done by all non-English speakers. Luckily, I speak Spanish fairly well because of my friends that live in Colombia. I gave them drinks and tried to be as friendly as possible. They were really hard workers.

But the company had an "inspection crew" (about 5 or 6 white English speakers) that spent two days going over all the work and correcting anything they saw that wasn't done to their satisfaction.

Overall, they did an excellent job with the new roof. But it was interesting to see the hierarchy of job duties starting with all non-English speaking laborers. Being S. Florida, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the basic laborers were illegals.

On the weather front, the weather couldn't be more perfect. Another day with clear skies and temps near 80. The best thing is the low humidity. It's very refreshing.
Quoting 17. Sfloridacat5:



I just had my roof redone. They fixed/repaired any areas that needed repairing and put down new concrete tiles. The main workers (hard labor) was done by all non-English speakers. Luckily, I speak Spanish fairly well because of my friends that live in Colombia. I gave them drinks and tried to be as friendly as possible. They were really hard workers.

But the company had an "inspection crew" (about 5 or 6 white English speakers) that spent two days going over all the work and correcting anything they saw that wasn't done to their satisfaction.

Overall, they did an excellent job with the new roof. But it was interesting to see the hierarchy of job duties starting with all non-English speaking laborers. Being S. Florida, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the basic laborers were illegals.



I would tend to agree with you about the basic laborers being illegal immigrants, but I could never say for sure. The one thing I don't understand is, where do the laborers learn to build a house, who is teaching them these skills? That's the part I'm missing. Like I said, in that neighborhood they are building near me, young immigrants are essentially building the house unsupervised. Some of them look like they are no older than 16-17. Surely, some skills beyond basic carpentry are needed to build a house to a high quality.
3 White Guys shoot 5 in Minnesota.

"Gee", ISIS is closer than you know.

Semper Fi'
Quoting 19. tampabaymatt:



I would tend to agree with you about the basic laborers being illegal immigrants, but I could never say for sure. The one thing I don't understand is, where do the laborers learn to build a house, who is teaching them these skills? That's the part I'm missing. Like I said, in that neighborhood they are building near me, young immigrants are essentially building the house unsupervised. Some of them look like they are no older than 16-17. Surely, some skills beyond basic carpentry are needed to build a house to a high quality.


I'm not sure. I just know down in Immokelle, the town in almost all migrant workers. You see truck loads of them heading out to work in the fields. But like you said, building a house requires some knowledge and skill.


Humans degrading working Humans.

Always classy on a weather site.

I've been involved in and with the South Florida homebuilding industry for a number of years in different roles, so I'd like to help clear up a few misconceptions some seem to have:

1) Most of those "young immigrant workers" are indeed supervised--usually by a supervisor who is himself one of those young immigrants--so it's incorrect to assume that they're unsupervised simply because one doesn't see an older white person standing around barking orders at them.

2) Those "young immigrant workers" aren't necessarily "the cheapest labor they can find". There's a shortage right now of skilled laborers, so there's no such thing as "cheapest labor" these days. Many of the people you see on a South Florida construction site are knowledgeable and intelligent types who've been vetted and screened, then properly trained in workmanship and safety.

3) However, those "young immigrant workers" are the reason many people--perhaps even you--are able to afford a home.

4) Stucco--especially the scratch coat--can be applied in rain so long as the walls are protected by roof overhangs.

5) It's incorrect to state, "Being S. Florida, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the basic laborers were illegals." First, the term you were looking for is "undocumented immigrant". Second, due to worker's compensation laws, along with the amount of money and time it takes to properly train and equip a skilled laborer, most larger contractors will not hire undocumented workers. The companies with which I've been involved certainly don't, and haven't for years. Not saying it doesn't still happen, but it's a rare thing.

6) There are absolutely no houses being built by untrained and unsupervised 16- and 17-year-olds.

7) It's "tract", not "track". A tract is a piece of land; a tract home is one of many similar homes built on that tract.
GFS 12z run looking interesting the first week in December:

It's a bit late to change plans for Thanksgiving but I would let any relatives/friends living in the midwest know that their weather is going to be less than ideal this year. Either way, have a very Happy and Safe Thanksgiving everyone!

Quoting 25. Neapolitan:

I've been involved in and with the South Florida homebuilding industry for a number of years in different roles, so I'd like to help clear up a few misconceptions some seem to have:

1) Most of those "young immigrant workers" are indeed supervised--usually by a supervisor who is himself one of those young immigrants--so it's incorrect to assume that they're unsupervised simply because one doesn't see an older white person standing around barking orders at them.

2) Those "young immigrant workers" aren't necessarily "the cheapest labor they can find". There's a shortage right now of skilled laborers, so there's no such thing as "cheapest labor" these days. Many of the people you see on a South Florida construction site are knowledgeable and intelligent types who've been vetted and screened, then properly trained in workmanship and safety.

3) However, those "young immigrant workers" are the reason many people--perhaps even you--are able to afford a home.

4) Stucco--especially the scratch coat--can be applied in rain so long as the walls are protected by roof overhangs.

5) It's incorrect to state, "Being S. Florida, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the basic laborers were illegals." First, the term you were looking for is "undocumented immigrant". Second, due to worker's compensation laws, along with the amount of money and time it takes to properly train and equip a skilled laborer, most larger contractors will not hire undocumented workers. The companies with which I've been involved certainly don't, and haven't for years. Not saying it doesn't still happen, but it's a rare thing.

6) There are absolutely no houses being built by untrained and unsupervised 16- and 17-year-olds.

7) It's "tract", not "track". A tract is a piece of land; a tract home is one of many similar homes built on that tract.


1) It's impossible for you to state that as a fact unless you personally observe each instance of a home being built.
2) I was actually questioning how these laborers learn their craft. You didn't really answer that.
3) I actually have a very successful career of my own and am blessed to be able to afford a home in a nice area. So, I would prefer skilled workers build my home, even if that means I pay more.
4) Personally, I'd rather my stucco be applied when it's not raining. I have a feeling most people would agree with me.

6) It's impossible for you to state that as a fact unless you personally observe each instance of a home being built.
7) My error, thanks for the correction.
Quoting 25. Neapolitan:

I've been involved in and with the South Florida homebuilding industry for a number of years in different roles, so I'd like to help clear up a few misconceptions some seem to have:

1) Most of those "young immigrant workers" are indeed supervised--usually by a supervisor who is himself one of those young immigrants--so it's incorrect to assume that they're unsupervised simply because one doesn't see an older white person standing around barking orders at them.

2) Those "young immigrant workers" aren't necessarily "the cheapest labor they can find". There's a shortage right now of skilled laborers, so there's no such thing as "cheapest labor" these days. Many of the people you see on a South Florida construction site are knowledgeable and intelligent types who've been vetted and screened, then properly trained in workmanship and safety.

3) However, those "young immigrant workers" are the reason many people--perhaps even you--are able to afford a home.

4) Stucco--especially the scratch coat--can be applied in rain so long as the walls are protected by roof overhangs.

5) It's incorrect to state, "Being S. Florida, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the basic laborers were illegals." First, the term you were looking for is "undocumented immigrant". Second, due to worker's compensation laws, along with the amount of money and time it takes to properly train and equip a skilled laborer, most larger contractors will not hire undocumented workers. The companies with which I've been involved certainly don't, and haven't for years. Not saying it doesn't still happen, but it's a rare thing.

6) There are absolutely no houses being built by untrained and unsupervised 16- and 17-year-olds.

7) It's "tract", not "track". A tract is a piece of land; a tract home is one of many similar homes built on that tract.


I lived in South Texas and I can state that a large percentage of workers are in fact "illegal." My boss employed many of them. Our job site was right next to the boarder and illegals would constantly stop and use our bathroom after crossing the boarder illegally. They did it all day long.
I'm not saying they don't serve an important purpose in many situations. But the non-stop flow if illegals into the U.S. is unreal.
Nea, have you read about the billion dollar stucco failure issue occurring in many parts of FL? Reporters who worked the story are directly attributing the problem to poor, unsupervised work being done when applying the stucco by subcontractors. I don't think you can accurately say all work being done on homes in FL is being supervised.

Typhoon In Fa headed into the westerlies across the Pacific.
Quoting 26. Drakoen:

GFS 12z run looking interesting the first week in December:


I would not look into it too much just yet, it is still 11 days away. When it narrows to 96-108 hrs, then we can pay even closer attention.
Uh oh!!! 12Z GFS looks to have the RRR along the California coast. Storms systems approach late in the model run, only to evaporate as they near the coast. I know the climatologist/meteorologist are confident El Nino will win, but seeing this in the models in the "wet" season has to make one feel at least a little uneasy. Still at 300 hours out, not to get too excited, but it just looks way too much like the last few years.
Quoting 30. tampabaymatt:

Nea, have you read about the billion dollar stucco failure issue occurring in many parts of FL? Reporters who worked the story are directly attributing the problem to poor, unsupervised work being done when applying the stucco by subcontractors. I don't think you can accurately say all work being done on homes in FL is being supervised.
I would imagine that the definition of 'supervision' bears greatly on this subject, and what about the county inspectors? If any construction is signed off and subsequently found to have been done in an inadequate fashion, shouldn't a significant amount of the blame be placed on the owner of the signature on the inspection doc's?
Quoting 32. Climate175:

I would not look into it too much just yet, it is still 11 days away. When it narrows to 96-108 hrs, then we can pay even closer attention.


Just posting an image. It could easily change in the next model run. I personally, don't like the look of the 500mb pattern with above average heights almost everywhere.
Quoting 32. Climate175:

I would not look into it too much just yet, it is still 11 days away. When it narrows to 96-108 hrs, then we can pay even closer attention.
Nah. Its guaranteed to happen look at the date............... J/K


It still indeed still a very long ways out and I would look for longer term trends.
Estimates of undocumented construction workers nation wide is about 14 - 15 percent (Pew Research 2015) and has held steady since 2007. Overall, they make up about 5 percent of the workforce. It is certainly a problem, but not nearly as widespread as it's made out to be. Of course certain places will be higher and lower depending on the state.

Construction is quickly becoming an industry in which U.S. born workers are abandoning in many developed states as the rate of new homes built continues to be below historic averages. Even if buying a new house, get an inspector to check the work before you buy.
Quoting 36. Tornado6042008X:

Nah. It guaranteed to happen look at the date............... J/K


It still indeed still a very long ways out and I would look for longer term trends.
Well actually we did have a streak before of getting snow on Dec 5th, that seemed to go away, but who knows, maybe it will come back. Weather is just too fluid to say on the spot for when an exact storm will come, 10 days ago, the GFS model runs showed there being a rainstorm impacting us today, the reality, partly cloudy with highs in the low 50s.
I'm waiting for the snow to melt. It's about 45 deg. but the snow on the cars is still about 6". But the next thing for us is a week-long warm up. Rain expected and 50 deg. on Thanksgiving. :-(
500mb heights at the time of the storm:

I don't remember seeing a 1050 mb surface high too often........








Link
I did some renovations recently on the kitchen in my house (I did the work myself) and it struck me that towns code enforcement officer was crazy busy and had more interest in whether or not I had a building permit, not in whether the work was done correctly. When I showed him the kitchen outlets that were all GFCI outlets wired in parallel (so that only the affected outlet would trip - not the whole circuit), it was evident that he didn't really understand the difference between a parallel circuit and a series circuit, because he told me that the code said only the first outlet needed to wired GFCI, not all of them. When I started to draw the wiring diagram and explain what was going on, he told me he was really busy, signed off on the rough construction, wiring and plumbing and then promptly left.
Quoting 33. ArkWeather:

Uh oh!!! 12Z GFS looks to have the RRR along the California coast. Storms systems approach late in the model run, only to evaporate as they near the coast. I know the climatologist/meteorologist are confident El Nino will win, but seeing this in the models in the "wet" season has to make one feel at least a little uneasy. Still at 300 hours out, not to get too excited, but it just looks way too much like the last few years.

Ridging is common along the Pacific coast in all types of winters. But strength, placement and persistance differ in different conditions. As we get closer to the El Nino onset around the end of the year, the ridge will either be undercut by a strong transPacific jet, and/or shift a bit eastward bringing the jet directly into California. The persistance of the ridge will under these conditions typically act to keep stormy conditions over California for several days at a time. Back in the Nino of 1982, I recall that we actually exceeded "forty days and forty nights" of rainfall, albeit not continuous, but at least once daily in that period.
Quoting 43. tlawson48:
I did some renovations recently on the kitchen in my house (I did the work myself) and it struck me that towns code enforcement officer was crazy busy and had more interest in whether or not I had a building permit, not in whether the work was done correctly. ...
I've had a similar experience with my town's inspector.
Quoting 45. bappit:

I've had a similar experience with my town's inspector.

tlawson and bappit, Most knowledgeable homeowners will do a better job than what is required by the building codes.
Maybe the inspector was "under the weather". (Trying to keep it a weather blog.)
Quoting 46. ChiThom:


tlawson and bappit, Most knowledgeable homeowners will do a better job than what is required by the building codes.
Maybe the inspector was "under the weather". (Trying to keep it a weather blog.)


I think inspectors in small towns are required to be knowledgeable for building codes that are thousands of pages. Small towns don't always have a huge pool of qualified people to draw on, so the code enforcement officer may just be doing the best they can. I don't fault the guy, but I can see that someone who is trusting an inspector to call out a shoddy builder before the house is complete and have to deal with problems for years down the road may become really frustrated.
Quoting 46. ChiThom:


tlawson and bappit, Most knowledgeable homeowners will do a better job than what is required by the building codes.
Maybe the inspector was "under the weather". (Trying to keep it a weather blog.)


I used to be a condo board president in Chicago. From our building's experience -- an older building that had been renovated into condos in the late 1990s before I bought -- I can confidently state that the city inspectors did nothing. Whoever did the work in our building cut every corner imaginable. Nobody would have caught all of it, of course, but an honest, diligent inspector would have caught at least some. There were repairs and renovations we spent the better part of a decade dealing with that should never have existed in the first place.

There's plenty of new construction throughout the city that has the same issues. It's inevitable whenever you get a building boom.
ECMWF 12z has the idea as well:

Quoting 41. Drakoen:

500mb heights at the time of the storm:


Quoting 48. MaineGuy:



I used to be a condo board president in Chicago. snip

I've worked on repairing some new buildings in Chicago...$500,000. condos... that leaked whenever it rained, damaging hardwood floors and drywall, and they ended-up in a lawsuit against the builder, who promptly moved overseas.
As a teenager back in the mid-40s in the UK, while I was dating Lilibet Windsor, I used to work construction from time to time. Every worksite was crawling with illegal Belgians back then. But they did good work and there weren't many complaints. We didn't know anything about el niño back then. It rained, it didn't rain. We dealt with it and got the work done.
Here is the FL stucco issue I was referring to.


"It appears that often the stucco installation was not directly-supervised and controlled by a licensed contractor," said professional engineer Thomas Miller with Structural Engineering and Inspections, Inc. "(Homebuilders) were relying on the subcontractors to install (stucco) without the supervision."

Link
CFS killing the el nino faster
ExxonMobil responds to its' internal climate change documents from 1983. Too much for me to digest at work, but maybe some of you can comment on their rebuttals.

Link

Link
We'll see what the NY attorney general concludes. ExxonMobil doesn't mention that.

Edit: the AG issued a subpoena earlier this month, so it will take a while for them to digest the additional information.
Quoting 55. Gearsts:

CFS killing the el nino faster

98 repeat?
Quoting 58. washingtonian115:

98 repeat?
Strong El nino's are usually follow by La ninas.
The first sentence of one of the press releases from ExxonMobil casts doubt on the picture they try to paint.

Some recent critics of ExxonMobil, notably Bill McKibben and Naomi Oreskes, are expressing surprise to hear that ExxonMobil helped pioneer research into climate change science in the 1970s and 1980s.


Fact is that the NY attorney general is investigating them. It really does not matter what ExxonMobil says in their press releases now.
Quoting 28. tampabaymatt:



1) It's impossible for you to state that as a fact unless you personally observe each instance of a home being built.
2) I was actually questioning how these laborers learn their craft. You didn't really answer that.
3) I actually have a very successful career of my own and am blessed to be able to afford a home in a nice area. So, I would prefer skilled workers build my home, even if that means I pay more.
4) Personally, I'd rather my stucco be applied when it's not raining. I have a feeling most people would agree with me.

6) It's impossible for you to state that as a fact unless you personally observe each instance of a home being built.
7) My error, thanks for the correction.


1) That's faulty logic. I merely stated that the absence of a white overseer should not in any way imply that a particular work crew is unsupervised. That remains a spurious assumption.

2) Hmmm. I didn't see questioning "how these laborers learn their craft" so much as I saw insinuations that they're all undocumented, untrained, and unsupervised.

3) I never stated or even hinted that you didn't have a career. I was referring to the fact that, much as some abhor the very existence of undocumented workers, it's their presence in the workforce that keeps certain products and services affordable to many Americans.

4) "Most people" aren't stucco installers, so that may be true. But stucco, being a water-borne product, can, again, be installed in the rain so long as the stucco and the wall to which it's being applied aren't subject to falling or running water. That in no way implies that it doesn't have to be done right. But stucco issues are, generally-speaking, not rain-based.

6) I suppose. But I also have no proof that Christmas toys aren't produced by Santa elves and delivered by a team of reindeer, since I don't "personally observe each instance" of a toy being built, yet I've a pretty good hunch that's not how it works. ;-) But you point stands, so let's put the onus on you: kindly produce a single instance in the entire history of Florida where you believe a production home was built entirely by an unruly crew of untrained, unsupervised, undocumented 16- and 17-year-olds, then sold.

And, yes, I'm fully aware of Florida's many substandard stucco applications, particularly those that were slapped on during the building boom of the early 2000s. (Some of the roofers with whom I've consulted have been accused of causing leaks that upon closer inspection turned out to be stucco misapplications) Happily, however, one positive side effect of the massive industry crash that followed is that a long list of jackleggers in all trades were washed away, and there simply aren't too many of them around these days.
Quoting 56. MrNatural:

ExxonMobil responds to its' internal climate change documents from 1983. Too much for me to digest at work, but maybe some of you can comment on their rebuttals.

Link

Link


If anything, I would say Exxon has been playing both "sides" of the game. Link Exxon's interests remain in the realm of keeping Exxon a competitive, money making corporation. If that means funding denial while working with the IPCC, why not. Big corporations rarely if ever have altruistic motives. Capitalism is concerned with maximizing capital.
Hey Nea!
If someone sneaks into your home are they an
undocumented guest?
This headline certainly is not controversial.

Why are meteorologists all wearing the same dress?
Quoting 63. PensacolaDoug:

Hey Nea!
If someone sneaks into your home are they an
undocumented guest?



"But describing an immigrant as illegal is legally inaccurate. Being in the U.S. without proper documents is a civil offense, not a criminal one. (Underscoring this reality, Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote for the majority opinion on SB 1070, Arizona’s controversial immigration law: “As a general rule, it is not a crime for a movable alien to remain in the United States.”) In a country that believes in due process of the law, calling an immigrant illegal is akin to calling a defendant awaiting trial a criminal." Link
Quoting 62. Naga5000:



If anything, I would say Exxon has been playing both "sides" of the game. Link Exxon's interests remain in the realm of keeping Exxon a competitive, money making corporation. If that means funding denial while working with the IPCC, why not. Big corporations rarely if ever have altruistic motives. Capitalism is concerned with maximizing capital.

I work for a very large oil company and there is definitely a department whose only focus is figuring out how global warming/climate change will affect the company's assets. There are a ton of very expensive facilities right at sea level. Energy companies will spend quite a bit protecting those facilities/assets as sea levels rise.
Quoting 65. Naga5000:



"But describing an immigrant as illegal is legally inaccurate. Being in the U.S. without proper documents is a civil offense, not a criminal one. (Underscoring this reality, Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote for the majority opinion on SB 1070, Arizona’s controversial immigration law: “As a general rule, it is not a crime for a movable alien to remain in the United States.”) In a country that believes in due process of the law, calling an immigrant illegal is akin to calling a defendant awaiting trial a criminal." Link
If they sneaked in, they broke the law. That is illegal.
Quoting 66. auspiv:


I work for a very large oil company and there is definitely a department whose only focus is figuring out how global warming/climate change will affect the company's assets. There are a ton of very expensive facilities right at sea level. Energy companies will spend quite a bit protecting those facilities/assets as sea levels rise.


Absolutely, but I would guarantee there is also a funding/lobbying arm that is trying to loosen regulations so they can also keep producing and manufacturing their products and maximize profit in which their usage contributes directly to the sea level rise problem. It is certainly about protecting assets at all levels, it's certainly complex. But no oil company is going to stop producing oil even if the results of the consumption of oil endangers their facilities. The oil is the main money maker.
Quoting 67. PensacolaDoug:
If they sneaked in, they broke the law. That is illegal.
Sonic commercial? :)
Quoting 61. Neapolitan:



1) That's faulty logic. I merely stated that the absence of a white overseer should not in any way imply that a particular work crew is unsupervised. That remains a spurious assumption.

2) Hmmm. I didn't see questioning "how these laborers learn their craft" so much as I saw insinuations that they're all undocumented, untrained, and unsupervised.

3) I never stated or even hinted that you didn't have a career. I was referring to the fact that, much as some abhor the very existence of undocumented workers, it's their presence in the workforce that keeps certain products and services affordable to many Americans.

4) "Most people" aren't stucco installers, so that may be true. But stucco, being a water-borne product, can, again, be installed in the rain so long as the stucco and the wall to which it's being applied aren't subject to falling or running water. That in no way implies that it doesn't have to be done right. But stucco issues are, generally-speaking, not rain-based.

6) I suppose. But I also have no proof that Christmas toys aren't produced by Santa elves and delivered by a team of reindeer, since I don't "personally observe each instance" of a toy being built, yet I've a pretty good hunch that's not how it works. ;-) But you point stands, so let's put the onus on you: kindly produce a single instance in the entire history of Florida where you believe a production home was built entirely by an unruly crew of untrained, unsupervised, undocumented 16- and 17-year-olds, then sold.

And, yes, I'm fully aware of Florida's many substandard stucco applications, particularly those that were slapped on during the building boom of the early 2000s. (Some of the roofers with whom I've consulted have been accused of causing leaks that upon closer inspection turned out to be stucco misapplications) Happily, however, one positive side effect of the massive industry crash that followed is that a long list of jackleggers in all trades were washed away, and there simply aren't too many of them around these days.


1) I'm not sure how you got the impression that I was implying the supervisor of the work had to be white. I never stated or implied that.
2) Yes, I actually did ask that question. I specifically stated I would be curious to know how the laborers learned how to build homes. I never insinuated any of the things you listed. I openly stated that I believe a lot of the work is unsupervised, not insinuated.
3) I never said you did.
6) Terrible comparison. Building a house actually happens, quite a bit actually. Toys being built by Santa's elves isn't something that happens. As I stated already, I have observed young laborers near my home building a house. If I had to guess their age, I would guess 16 or 17. I never stated any of that as a fact.

You should see a lot of the homes with current stucco issues in the Tampa Bay area before stating that "a long list of jackleggers in all trades were washed away, and there simply aren't too many of them around these days". The issue is very much still occurring.
Quoting 67. PensacolaDoug:

If they sneaked in, they broke the law. That is illegal.


Take it up with the legal wording as understood by the courts in the U.S., not me. You can blanket term undocumented people in the U.S. as "illegals" if it makes you feel better, but I would figure since you have strong opinions on the subject you would actually care to get the terminology correct. It does help in your arguments to at least begin with a factually correct premise. /shrug

Edit: It seems to be the only term that refers to an individual as "illegal" and not their actions. It's pejorative at best.
Quoting 63. PensacolaDoug:

Hey Nea!
If someone sneaks into your home are they an
undocumented guest?



I bet Nea won't unauthorized people in his house just as we should here in the US. The left is causing more and more problems with its beliefs and God forbid if you disagree with them.
Quoting 63. PensacolaDoug:

Hey Nea!
If someone sneaks into your home are they an
undocumented guest?



No one will sneak into your Home, its up a tad ...

LoL
My phone just went SQUEEEEE SQUEEEEE SQUEEEEE

Dust Storm Warning
Statement as of 12:28 PM PST on November 24, 2015

...Dust Storm Warning in effect until 4 PM PST this afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a dust Storm
Warning...which is in effect until 4 PM PST this afternoon. The
lake Wind Advisory is no longer in effect.

* Winds: south to southwest 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40
mph.

* Visibility: less than 1/4 mile. Localized areas of drastically
reduced visibility to less than 100 feet. This will affect
Interstate 80 near Lovelock and U.S. 50 from Fallon to Sand
Mountain.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dangerous dust storm is occurring with visibilities less than
100 feet. Travelers encountering this dust storm should slow down
or safely pull off to the side of the Road.

One does not have to be a US Citizen to serve in the US Military.

Facts matta greatly.
Quoting 67. PensacolaDoug:

If they sneaked in, they broke the law. That is illegal.
Thats what I thought also.
Lamar Smith is not winning any friends with His Witch Hunt..as Kathy Sullivan could tie Him in a knot in a Heartbeat, easily,

Quoting 145. no1der:

Top lawmaker rebutted on climate study accusation
"The escalating struggle between an influential House Republican and government scientists over their pivotal study of global warming now turns on accusations that they rushed to publish their findings to advance President Obama's agenda on climate change.
But a spokeswoman for Science, the prestigious peer-reviewed journal that in June published the paper by climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in an interview that their research was subject to a longer, more intensive review than is customary.
This paper went through as rigorous a review as it could have received, said Ginger Pinholster, chief of communications for the American Association for the Advancement of Science, which publishes Science. Any suggestion that the review was 'rushed' is baseless and without merit."


Quoting 62. Naga5000:



If anything, I would say Exxon has been playing both "sides" of the game. Link Exxon's interests remain in the realm of keeping Exxon a competitive, money making corporation. If that means funding denial while working with the IPCC, why not. Big corporations rarely if ever have altruistic motives. Capitalism is concerned with maximizing capital.


Research Confirms ExxonMobil, Koch-funded Climate Denial Echo Chamber Polluted Mainstream Media

A new study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science (PNAS) shows that the climate denial echo chamber organizations funded by ExxonMobil and Koch family foundations produced misinformation that effectively polluted mainstream media coverage of climate science and polarized the climate policy debate.

The analysis of 20 years’ worth of data by Yale University researcher Dr. Justin Farrell shows beyond a doubt that ExxonMobil and the Kochs are the key actors who funded the creation of climate disinformation think tanks and ensured the prolific spread of their doubt products throughout our mainstream media and public discourse.

“The contrarian efforts have been so effective for the fact that they have made it difficult for ordinary Americans to even know who to trust,”


Link
Quoting 78. Kenfa03:

Thats what I thought also.


Thats what we said about Rick Scott too.

And he was convicted, then voted in,

LoL
One man predicts cold and snowy winter here in the D.C area
Link

He got the winters of 13-14 and 14-15 correct..lets see what'll happen this year but 97-98 is still creeping in the back of my mind.
Quoting 82. Patrap:



Thats what we said about Rick Scott too.

And he was convicted, then voted in,

LoL
As was Marion Berry.
Quoting 67. PensacolaDoug:

If they sneaked in, they broke the law. That is illegal.


I do not disagree with your sentiment. What you seem to fail to recognize is that immigrants enter this country without going through the formal process of documentation just to better their life and to send financial support back to their family members. Should you decide to set aside your current thinking on this then you would soon come to realize that the real issues are with the employers that not only hire them but will also seek them out as a labor force. Undocumented laborers are more easily controlled simply by the threat of the employer to expose them. Should you be serious about stemming the flow of undocumented workers coming across the borders then you would make serious efforts towards getting at the real issues of the problem. Shut down the employers that knowingly will illegally hire them. Do you forget that when meat packing plants and construction sites are raided for undocumented workers that these companies then rally against the agencies that are taking away their work force? Instead of looking at the real problem you seem to prefer to just blaming the people entering our country without the proper documentation to do so. I share your sentiment that we need to stem the flow but, realistically, I have seen far worse behavior than this at Black Friday events, by our own citizens that are trying to get "a piece of the pie".

On a more upbeat topic, if the weather is not in your favor on Thanksgiving day then may the food be better than its usual excellence and your more favored football team prove to be triumphant. Try not to take up too much of the couch. :) Enjoy the day.
Quoting 43. tlawson48:

I did some renovations recently on the kitchen in my house (I did the work myself) and it struck me that towns code enforcement officer was crazy busy and had more interest in whether or not I had a building permit, not in whether the work was done correctly. When I showed him the kitchen outlets that were all GFCI outlets wired in parallel (so that only the affected outlet would trip - not the whole circuit), it was evident that he didn't really understand the difference between a parallel circuit and a series circuit, because he told me that the code said only the first outlet needed to wired GFCI, not all of them. When I started to draw the wiring diagram and explain what was going on, he told me he was really busy, signed off on the rough construction, wiring and plumbing and then promptly left.


Yeesh. Even I know the difference. That's sayin' something.

Heck, even my housemate's 9 years old daughter knows the difference (thank you Snap Circuit Electrical Set!).
Quoting 72. Naga5000:



Take it up with the legal wording as understood by the courts in the U.S., not me. You can blanket term undocumented people in the U.S. as "illegals" if it makes you feel better, but I would figure since you have strong opinions on the subject you would actually care to get the terminology correct. It does help in your arguments to at least begin with a factually correct premise. /shrug

Edit: It seems to be the only term that refers to an individual as "illegal" and not their actions. It's pejorative at best.
The correct legal term would be "Suspected Improper Alien Entrant". It is a violation of 8 U.S. Code 1325 - Improper entry by alien. It's a criminal violation, misdemeanor for a first offense and felony for second and subsequent offenses. It's also a civil violation, as outlined in Section (b). When the law changed in 1999, allowing state peace officers to arrest and hold a suspect alien, this is the section we used. We held a suspect until the Border Patrol showed up and took them into custody. Assuming the suspect was not also a suspect in any state crimes, that's the last we ever heard of the case.
Quoting 79. StormTrackerScott:

=

They can bake the waffles and let the citizens do the fighting. Hard to fight for your country if your not part of it.
I've searched and I do not find any words in the current blog that are on or suggest the discussion topic of which this comment is a part, so an extremely extended and unfriendly discussion here on the weather blog comments section is, it would appear, somewhat off topic.
Everyone have a safe Thanksgiving in case I am not able to get on here over the Holiday. Sandra is currently off the coast of Mexico getting organized and making sure her papers are in order before she crosses the border....... :)



Quoting 87. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I do not disagree with your sentiment. What you seem to fail to recognize is that immigrants enter this country without going through the formal process of documentation just to better their life and to send financial support back to their family members. Should you decide to set aside your current thinking on this then you would soon come to realize that the real issues are with the employers that not only hire them but will also seek them out as a labor force. Undocumented laborers are more easily controlled simply by the threat of the employer to expose them. Should you be serious about stemming the flow of undocumented workers coming across the borders then you would make serious efforts towards getting at the real issues of the problem. Shut down the employers that knowingly will illegally hire them. Do you forget that when meat packing plants and construction sites are raided for undocumented workers that these companies then rally against the agencies that are taking away their work force? Instead of looking at the real problem you seem to prefer to just blaming the people entering our country without the proper documentation to do so. I share your sentiment that we need to stem the flow but, realistically, I have seen far worse behavior than this at Black Friday events, by our own citizens that are trying to get "a piece of the pie".

On a more upbeat topic, if the weather is not in your favor on Thanksgiving day then may the food be better than its usual excellence and your more favored football team prove to be triumphant. Try not to take up too much of the couch. :) Enjoy the day.


Works for me. I have an idea that the market will adjust to any increased labor costs. You can't have it both ways. Take your pick. Put up or shut up.
Doug, you should read more..as your weather posts are lacking today.

But as per yer wu m'o, its never about weather with yous, now is it?



Citizenship for Native American Veterans
Quoting 55. Gearsts:
CFS killing the el nino faster

From the NOAA page where your forecast came from: "The forecast is first bias corrected based on the hindcasts and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) daily SST analysis for 1999-2010. Anomalies are then defined as the departure from NCDC's 1982-2010 climatology."

I'm wondering if part of the reason why corrected models have consistently way underestimated this Nino is because they are using SSTs hindsight from 1999-2010 - during which a negative PDO phase suppressed SSTs. Dynamical models, the ones that for the most part accurately predicted this Nino, show it lasting for longer and tending toward a neutral ENSO state considerably later in the hurricane season next year.
Quoting 88. nonblanche:



Yeesh. Even I know the difference. That's sayin' something.

Heck, even my housemate's 9 years old daughter knows the difference (thank you Snap Circuit Electrical Set!).


People know about this stuff?
I'm pretty sure that the majority of people like me just plug somehting in and hope it doesn't blow the house up, whatever it does behind the scenes is ancillary.
96. vis0



That's interesting and you bring up a good point regarding the inspection process. I don't know what the solution is, but something needs to be done in FL. There is a track home neighborhood going up near my home. I walk my dogs through it all the time and see young, immigrant workers essentially building the home unsupervised. The day after the foundation is poured, palettes of concrete block are stacked on top of it, never giving it a chance to cure properly. One day this summer, I observed a crew applying stucco while it was pouring rain outside. Again, it seemed like they were totally unsupervised. It just seems like more needs to be done to make these greedy builders ensure the homes are built well. Not just hire the cheapest labor they can find and come back when the house is built.
WEATHER RELATED?? you bet if homes are built in a manner that makes them inferior during certain weather as to which those homes should stand up to but did not, its weather related.
i say EVERY worker place there securely marked stamp on every piece they work on a home that worker worked on, including ink onto the drying cement and the ink being of a certain chemical shows that, TILL that RED INK turns GREEN that cement has not cured, if its poured during too much rain the red ink runs.

 If a part that was used to build a home  fails but it was just physics of nature being too strong no one is at fault we need to see if better materials, building standards are needed. If on the other hand it failed due to shoddy workmanship find that worker via the stamp and add to their license a negative point.  If one receives more than 50% negative points as to the amount of homes they worked on in a year they are investigated.  Use percentage NOT AMOUNT as some good workers might work on 40 homes do 5 bad "jobs" while another bad worker only work on 10 homes in the same period but also have 5 bad "jobs" Since 50% of the 2nd workers work was bad, that person is investigated, the first worker is ask questions and hopefully we learn from his/her answers to help lower the odds of bad work.

 Here in NYc on 26th and 2nd Ave. a well known 33 story building for being full of mildew (deadly kind) at 444 2nd ave (Phillips towr) had its bricks and some interior portions completely removed.  Again i being of Latin/Native~Spanish~African decent see many USofA citizens and immigrants from S America doing hard work i APPLAUD YOU ALL FOR DOING HARD WORK,   BUT some do that hard work in the wrong manner or with shortcuts. On this building that has ~33 stories working went on for hrs. while it rained, snowed, lightning less than 5 secs away. Why? Cause gangs infiltrate certain areas of the Unions ruin it for all and get kick backs from workers as protection money for first getting them the job via inside union secrets that gang members get from gang members working in Unions. So as a scare tactic they tell these workers whom feel they own their loyalty to that gang for  not telling immigration that a relative of a worker might be illegal.
Same with these drivers licenses , i say do hard work, become a citizen and as you work yourself towards being a US Citizen if you are caught doing illegal work or shoddy work you loose points in acquiring Citizenship in turn you lose the ability to save more money though you still should get health benefits, as illnesses have no boundaries and can affect anyone else. To correct shoddy workmanship that flourishes due to gang activities we need something with teeth to counter act gangs strong arm tactics.
tired of putting up christmas lights. think lazers. a bunch of companies are right there. happy holidays
ULL currently by West Coast California/Oregon border,some rain and snow for Nor Cal currently, as the ULL heads southeast with a weak cold front, Soo Cal may get some light rain totals. This is the ULL forecast to draw up moisture from TS Sandra later this week.



Quoting 37. Naga5000:

Estimates of undocumented construction workers nation wide is about 14 - 15 percent (Pew Research 2015) and has held steady since 2007. Overall, they make up about 5 percent of the workforce. It is certainly a problem, but not nearly as widespread as it's made out to be. Of course certain places will be higher and lower depending on the state.

Construction is quickly becoming an industry in which U.S. born workers are abandoning in many developed states as the rate of new homes built continues to be below historic averages. Even if buying a new house, get an inspector to check the work before you buy.


I bought a house built in the 1830s. Small and efficient it does me right. Lots of Mickey Mouse stuff and I am learning as I go in that regard. Does pretty well in our harsh New England winters, but destructive insects are a problem with all the old wood.
Quoting 79. StormTrackerScott:

=

They can bake the waffles and let the citizens do the fighting. Hard to fight for your country if your not part of it.
Quoting 90. CaneFreeCR:

I've searched and I do not find any words in the current blog that are on or suggest the discussion topic of which this comment is a part, so an extremely extended and unfriendly discussion here on the weather blog comments section is, it would appear, somewhat off topic.

I believe it was a reference to the Belgians mentioned earlier. Say what you want, but they make a good waffle.
A strong but very deep earthquake in Peru. Thankfully, not near any major population centers:

Quoting 92. beell:



Works for me. I have an idea that the market will adjust to any increased labor costs. You can't have it both ways. Take your pick. Put up or shut up.
Employers have been required to complete a Form I-9 for everyone they hire since 1986. The I-9 is what an employer uses to show due diligence regarding an employee's immigration status before they got hired. The Form I-9 is pretty comprehensive, and allows for several different types of documents to confirm a prospective employee's immigrations status. An employer can also use E-Verify to get an instant verification of status from government records. Failure to follow the law makes an employer guilty of "harboring a criminal" and subject to jail time and some big fines. There are still stiff civil penalties if the pattern of behavior doesn't rise to criminal intent.

So, there's no problem with the current laws, nor do we need new laws. What we need is enforcement of the current laws. That would mean a lot more ICE agents than what we have now. Given the budget woes of the Federal government, that's not likely to happen. Criminal employers know this, so they continue to skirt the law. Some have even provided fake documents to workers so it would look like they were complying with the immigration laws. The money that's proposed to build better fences would be much better spent cracking down on criminal employers. If an immigrant can't get a job, it's a lot less likely they will want to take the risk of being in this country illegally.
I like waffles...
Quoting 87. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I do not disagree with your sentiment. What you seem to fail to recognize is that immigrants enter this country without going through the formal process of documentation just to better their life and to send financial support back to their family members. Should you decide to set aside your current thinking on this then you would soon come to realize that the real issues are with the employers that not only hire them but will also seek them out as a labor force. Undocumented laborers are more easily controlled simply by the threat of the employer to expose them. Should you be serious about stemming the flow of undocumented workers coming across the borders then you would make serious efforts towards getting at the real issues of the problem. Shut down the employers that knowingly will illegally hire them. Do you forget that when meat packing plants and construction sites are raided for undocumented workers that these companies then rally against the agencies that are taking away their work force? Instead of looking at the real problem you seem to prefer to just blaming the people entering our country without the proper documentation to do so. I share your sentiment that we need to stem the flow but, realistically, I have seen far worse behavior than this at Black Friday events, by our own citizens that are trying to get "a piece of the pie".

On a more upbeat topic, if the weather is not in your favor on Thanksgiving day then may the food be better than its usual excellence and your more favored football team prove to be triumphant. Try not to take up too much of the couch. :) Enjoy the day.
I agree with your assessment of the issue. You read a lot more into my statement than you should. I don't "fail to recognize" anything. I didn't say to send them back wholesale. My complaint is with the language of the left. "Legal aliens" is an accepted term. "Resident alien" is an accepted term. So it's obvious that the problem isn't with the term "alien". It stands to reason if we have "Legal aliens" than the opposite of that is "Illegal aliens". This PC culture we live in has gone beyond ridiculous and wandered into the realm of bizarre. I speak only for myself.

On another note.
Pat! It was a beautiful day here in Pensacola with low humidity and light northerly winds and temps in the mid 60's. Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!
Quoting 98. HurricaneHunterJoe:

ULL currently by West Coast California/Oregon border,some rain and snow for Nor Cal currently, as the ULL heads southeast with a weak cold front, Soo Cal may get some light rain totals. This is the ULL forecast to draw up moisture from TS Sandra later this week.





Not so sure about that. Sandra will come ashore on the Mexican coast well south of California and its moisture will move into the central US. The upper low dropping down the West Coast won't be entraining any of that moisture. Local forecasters are suggesting that the surface feature or even the upper low itself will retrograde back over California as other disturbances start approaching from the West. A particularly vigorous system is charging up over the North Pacific and the remnants of Typhoon In Fa will be riding the westerlies south of it. Whether this energy and moisture makes it to the coast before sinking out remains to be seen.

Cold upper low with modifying Canadian polar air streaming over the still mild SSTs off the West Coast. Light rain through the SF Bay Area this AM with the associated cold front. Surface low now over northern Nevada. Moderate snow reported at Truckee and Lake Tahoe right now. We're expecting showers here as the cold pool aloft moves through tonight and pops some scattered instability showers, our version of ocean effect PPT.

Hot tower visible as the sun sets on Sandra.
Quoting 103. aquak9:

I like waffles...


Pancakes are better :P
Lake Erie algae bloom grew so large, it broke the scale

Monday, November 23, 2015, 5:25 PM – This summer, experts warned of a near-record algal bloom in Lake Erie. Even that extreme prediction fell short, though, as this year’s toxic algae became so severe, it broke the scale.

Link

Quoting 105. BayFog:


Not so sure about that. Sandra will come ashore on the Mexican coast well south of California and its moisture will move into the central US. The upper low dropping down the West Coast won't be entraining any of that moisture. Local forecasters are suggesting that the surface feature or even the upper low itself will retrograde back over California as other disturbances start approaching from the West. A particularly vigorous system is charging up over the North Pacific and the remnants of Typhoon In Fa will be riding the westerlies south of it. Whether this energy and moisture makes it to the coast before sinking out remains to be seen.



IMO the ULL will not entrain any moisture but with it's associated trof will help adjust the sub tropical jet to aim that Sandra moisture into the middle of the country........JMO
Toxic Interests: In Lead-up to Paris Summit, Conservative Politicians Around the World are Fighting to Kill Renewable Energy

We have seen the enemy and he is us.

‘He,’ in this case, is those among us now fighting an all-out war against government programs aimed at reducing the damage caused by human-forced climate change. And in this present time of ramping climate catastrophe, there is no excuse at all for this morally reprehensible activity. Yet, excuse or no, the foul actions of these shameless ignoramuses continue. For all around the world conservatives (called [neo] liberals in Australia) with ties to fossil fuel based industry continue to scuttle programs that would result in the more rapid adoption of renewable energy systems even as they undermine related initiatives to increase energy efficiency.


Robert Scribbler
113. MahFL
Puget Sound Energy outages are at 49,000 from winter storm Cara.
114. vis0
Quoting 108. Articuno:



Pancakes are better :P
Watch me jump to a much lighter subject.

Try making tree ringing bowl shaped pancakes? HUH?

You need a not so deep wok and plates whose round shape matches the woks circular area.

Create the same pancake batter you used to burn  cook for the family.

BUT instead of a making flat pancakes in where the olive oil sea salted butter...
 (SYRUP IS A NO NO unless its natural with very view added ingredients)

...slides off the pancake, make pancakes bowl shaped.  Of course make the center most part of the pancake in the wok first,  KEEP IT THIN. Then add more of the pancake mixture AROUND the centermost part  by DRIZZLING IT AROUND THE EDGE of the already browning center portion.   Swirl/turn the wok so the added drizzling pancake mix attaches to the centermost area BUT does not add thickness to that centermost part, just adds another ring of pancake above the last ring. Keep adding another ring of drizzled pancake mix, maybe up to 3 or 4 rings before the centermost pancake begins to over brown and you'll have a light BUT bowl shaped pancake.

Now place in the bowl that matches the shape of the wok so pancake keeps its bowl shapes, add 1/7th stick of butter  per bowl shaped pancake stacked and every bite will have buttery flavour nothing drips off the pancake...well except when eating it and it drips on to the shirt ...but that you can lick off as a midnight snack.

Weather related? ya bet ya, teach your kids as to leeward effects on weather in valleys by using the bowl shaped food.
Quoting 83. washingtonian115:

One man predicts cold and snowy winter here in the D.C area
Link

He got the winters of 13-14 and 14-15 correct..lets see what'll happen this year but 97-98 is still creeping in the back of my mind.
Yea, I saw that, the mixed forecasts are leaving a big question mark. We are getting closer to the start of Winter, and will find out pretty soon.
The crackpots have a new hero -

They're after the NASA data sets now -

A German professor recently completed an analysis of the original NASA datasets that shows the climate has been cooling since 1940.

Look up professor Dr. Friedrich Karl Ewert's analysis for yourself.

This is the original article in German.


Link
vis0 - You got too much time on your hands for making pancakes like that. Interesting idea... I have to use sugar free syrup now, but before that I really like all natural maple syrup with nothing added.

--

45F and raining here now. 12 inches of snow and now its all melting making a mess... Of course now the temps will go below freezing and make everything ice covered.


This video only has 132 views. It's your big chance to view a viral video before it goes viral!
Quoting 117. Dakster:

vis0 - You got too much time on your hands for making pancakes like that. Interesting idea... I have to use sugar free syrup now, but before that I really like all natural maple syrup with nothing added.

--

45F and raining here now. 12 inches of snow and now its all melting making a mess... Of course now the temps will go below freezing and make everything ice covered.
So I should come visit Alaska to get a good piece of ice?
BB - Yes - but you might have to go a little north of me to get it...

If these warm winters and summers keep up I plan on planting coconut palms here - maybe some orange and key lime trees.
Quoting 119. BaltimoreBrian:

So I should come visit Alaska to get a good piece of ice?
I read the last word over to fast and thought it was something else.
Quoting 113. MahFL:
Puget Sound Energy outages are at 49,000 from winter storm Cara.
Yay! They named a northwest storm!

Maybe they realized names are cheap so if they use one with a small market, no biggie. Yes, it's going to move on east. We'll see what happens.
Quoting 108. Articuno:
Pancakes are better :P
You can cook a lot of them faster, but quality over quantity.
Quoting 121. washingtonian115:

I read the last word over to fast and thought it was something else.


You are too funny Washi... The sad part, is that I did the same thing. I just wasn't going to admit it.
The anti-icing tricks of penguins Especially for Dakster's benefit.
Quoting 83. washingtonian115:

One man predicts cold and snowy winter here in the D.C area
Link

He got the winters of 13-14 and 14-15 correct..lets see what'll happen this year but 97-98 is still creeping in the back of my mind.
Now this certainly doesn't guarantee anything but I've noticed that so far every forecaster who is looking into all the different factors for this winter are seeing a colder and snowier winter than one would expect in the DC area during a very strong El Nino event........We'll see soon enough.
All you gotta do is get some penguins up here... They are south pole animals only... But there are animals up here that do the same thing as the penguins - they make chemicals that prevent them from freezing. Unfortunately, someone taught the mosquito how to do that.
Sandra continues to undergo rapid intensification and appears near hurricane intensity. There is a high likelihood that the cyclone reaches at least Category 3 strength before increased wind shear imparts weakening on Thursday.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDRA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
800 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SANDRA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 107.9W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Quoting 101. Neapolitan:

A strong but very deep earthquake in Peru. Thankfully, not near any major population centers:




Stretchy slabs found in the deep Earth



There's a joke somewhere connecting 'stretchy slabs' to comment 119. But I just can't think of it.
The further south Sandra stays the stronger she should be.
Quoting 116. ColoradoBob1:

The crackpots have a new hero -

They're after the NASA data sets now -

A German professor recently completed an analysis of the original NASA datasets that shows the climate has been cooling since 1940.

Look up professor Dr. Friedrich Karl Ewert's analysis for yourself.

This is the original article in German.


Link




Gewäsch!
Quoting 104. PensacolaDoug:

I agree with your assessment of the issue. You read a lot more into my statement than you should. I don't "fail to recognize" anything. I didn't say to send them back wholesale. My complaint is with the language of the left. "Legal aliens" is an accepted term. "Resident alien" is an accepted term. So it's obvious that the problem isn't with the term "alien". It stands to reason if we have "Legal aliens" than the opposite of that is "Illegal aliens". This PC culture we live in has gone beyond ridiculous and wandered into the realm of bizarre. I speak only for myself.

On another note.
Pat! It was a beautiful day here in Pensacola with low humidity and light northerly winds and temps in the mid 60's. Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!



I get it. You are tired of the situation. The problem does not exist because of PC. The problem exists for the very reasons that I have pointed out. You are free to take a political stance on this and to blame these problems on the left. When you do so it is also by your ignoring the fact that President Ronald Reagan granted full amnesty to all illegal aliens, to avoid being politically correct, and with no conditions being placed on their amnesty. The only request was for them to come forward and be counted and they were given amnesty. That is not from the left. That is from the pride of the right for Reagan.

As far as the political correctness goes, the only reason I can see people wanting to end it is so that they will feel free to say any hateful and disgusting thing that they want to concerning other people. Everyone is free, today, at this moment, to do so. However, this is not the way that a civil society conducts itself. I do not suggest that this is the reason that you would want to end PC, but when you push to end it then a far less civil society is the end result. Are there not enough vocal irritants involved in public discussions now? If you think that there is not enough social violence now, then go ahead and push harder to end PC. I can assure you that there will more than just fists flying if we do not show respect for all people. You call it PC. I call it a show of respect.

Edit:
removed double negative
Weather-related disasters on the rise, says UN report

This article says 606,000 killed, and 2.9 billion "affected by" weather disasters over the past 20 years. This does not include weather related fatalities in events that killed less than 10 people. So 2 people killed by lightning, or 7 people killed in a flash flood are not counted.

Best to go to the original report, I guess. The Human Cost of Weather-Related Disasters
I cried tonight as I watched American Experience , because my mother wasn't here to see it.
It was on The Pilgrims .

Not because we are from blue bloods up North, but because these old themes of American history, she found on her own as genealogist searching our family roots.
As we watch the modern refugees , in our snug modern homes this Thanksgiving. we have a very little idea what horrors, the people that made us when through.

Even after a decade of hanging on The Pilgrims . , were strong enough to cut the head off an Indian leader, and place it on pike in the middle of Plymouth.

It's really great 2 hour history , complex, and filled with the human experience, one of the best PBS have ever done. Watch it if can.
On November 25, 1915 Albert Einstein first wrote the equation E = mc2

Wise money quoting 5-1 odds this will be tomorrow's google doodle

PensacolaDoug

Please explain this without a warming world and more water vapor in the system -


North Central Gulf Coast Historic Flash Flood Event – 29-30 April 2014
Also of note, the official NWS reporting sites at Mobile Regional Airport (MOB) and Pensacola Regional Airport (PNS) received some record rainfall amounts for 29 April. MOB saw 11.24" during the calendar day. This is their 3rd greatest calendar day total on record. Data here goes back to 1871. PNS recorded an estimated 15.55". Data were lost due to power outage between 10-11 PM CDT, so amounts were estimated using Dual Pol radar precipitation estimates. This is their greatest calendar day total on record. PNS rainfall data goes back to 1879. Of interest in the PNS total is the 5.68" that fell in 1 hour between 02Z-03Z. A quick peek of the NOAA HDSC Precipitation Frequency map shows this to be a 1 in 200 year to 1 in 500 year 1 hourly amount. The 24 hour amount is between a 1 in 50 and 1 in 100 year event. The Mobile 24 hour total is about a 1 in 25 year event.

Of significance, the two day estimated total for Pensacola of 20.47" lies between a 1 in 100 to 1 in 200 year event.


Link


PensacolaDoug, please explain how this happened -

Of interest in the PNS total is the 5.68" that fell in 1 hour between 02Z-03Z.

We all a wait your deep thinking, and profound insights.
I have this theory about deniers.

Every day all over the Earth , they are being converted as nature rips them from their homes.
NASA’s IceBridge project does not bring much reassurance . . . .

During one flight in the Peninsula that mapped the drainage area of several glaciers, LVIS measured a drop of more than 490 feet (150 meters) in the height of two glaciers since IceBridge last plotted them, in 2009. Both glaciers, called Green and Hektoria, were tributaries to the Larsen B ice shelf, which disintegrated in 2002. After the ice shelf collapsed, it stopped buttressing the glaciers that fed it, and glacier elevations have fallen dramatically since then.

A study published in 2012 showed average elevation losses of up to 82 feet (25 meters) per year for the lower Green and Hektoria glaciers from 2006 to 2011. So IceBridge’s discovery that both are still losing ice fast many years after the loss of the adjacent ice shelf is “not all that surprising given what we have observed with other sensors,” said Christopher Shuman, a University of Maryland, Baltimore County glaciologist working at Goddard and co-author of the 2012 report.

“Field data suggests that there’s been a modest cooling in the area over the 2009–2015 time period, and images collected during that time by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on the Terra and Aqua satellites show more persistent fast ice [sea ice that is attached to the shore] in the Larsen A and Larsen B embayments” Shuman said. “These IceBridge measurements show that once the ice shelves collapse, even some cooling and a good deal of persistent sea ice is not able to hold back these larger glaciers and they continue to lose mass overall.”


Link


I have this theory about deniers.

Every day all over the Earth , they are being converted as nature rips them from their homes.

It’s a one to one thing. When your up your to nipples in flood waters then climate change becomes an idea you may want to entertain.
1888 diagram of the atmospheric waves caused by the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa

I'm really surprised the 100th anniversary of E = mc2 is not a google doodle.
My people were unwelcome nearly everywhere they went until following World War II. It is that knowledge that makes me uncomfortable with the way we are treated those who come here for a better opportunity. A pathway to citizenship would be ideal, but enough people in this country are not going to accept that just yet. The way to citizenship isn't written in stone and it should change with the times, hopefully in time it shall.
Quoting 147. BaltimoreBrian:

I'm really surprised the 100th anniversary of E = mc2 is not a google doodle.


It's all relative anyway.
Anyone from S FL here?
If you have a camera, take a pic of the moon halo.
I tried, but my camera s?????. Ah, not worth a crap.
So far 0Z models have a southern jet on steroids. Geesh guys get ready especially here in FL as it is looking active next week.
Quoting 139. BaltimoreBrian:

On November 25, 1915 Albert Einstein first wrote the equation E = mc2

Wise money quoting 5-1 odds this will be tomorrow's google doodle




Left out of his autobiography because he new it is flawed.
Quoting 136. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I get it. You are tired of the situation. The problem does not exist because of PC. The problem exists for the very reasons that I have pointed out. You are free to take a political stance on this and to blame these problems on the left. When you do so it is also by your ignoring the fact that President Ronald Reagan granted full amnesty to all illegal aliens, to avoid being politically correct, and with no conditions being placed on their amnesty. The only request was for them to come forward and be counted and they were given amnesty. That is not from the left. That is from the pride of the right for Reagan.

As far as the political correctness goes, the only reason I can see people wanting to end it is so that they will feel free to say any hateful and disgusting thing that they want to concerning other people. Everyone is free, today, at this moment, to do so. However, this is not the way that a civil society conducts itself. I do not suggest that this is the reason that you would want to end PC, but when you push to end it then a far less civil society is the end result. Are there not enough vocal irritants involved in public discussions now? If you think that there is not enough social violence now, then go ahead and push harder to end PC. I can assure you that there will more than just fists flying if we do not show respect for all people. You call it PC. I call it a show of respect.

Edit:
removed double negative


The problem with being politically correct is that it discourages calling a spade a spade. Respect is one thing, but I'm of the opinion that incidentally offending someone with an argument is fine. If you can't tolerate opinions you don't like, you shouldn't be an adult.
So if Mars gains a ring does that mean god liked it?

Of course none of us will be around to see it, in fact I doubt anyone that even knew I existed will be around to see it since it is going to take 10-20 million years... By then, unless we annihilate ourselves first, we should have large cities on Mars.
Quoting 56. MrNatural:

ExxonMobil responds to its' internal climate change documents from 1983. Too much for me to digest at work, but maybe some of you can comment on their rebuttals.

Link

Link


Let me see if I can paraphrase this into a context that more people will understand:

"Dammit, we got caught. Here's a rambling snow job that we think will give us plausible deniability for the general public. We already own all the important government officials so they don't really matter. Thanks for all the money and not pressing the charges."

The first link contains a blatant falsehood right out of the gate:

As I’ve noted in prior posts, our scientists and researchers were among the first to grapple with the fact there might be a connection between the carbon dioxide emissions from humanity’s use of fossil fuels and climate fluctuations.

They weren't among the first. That link was first brought up in the 19th century. And there's no "might" about it. It's basic chemistry and thermodynamics (hence why even 19th century scientists could figure it out).

Next up, the article includes a graph from the IPCC itself, trying to use it to make the claim of "large uncertainties" and even the worst case scenarios aren't that bad. This is a standard denier tactic. Pick something, rip it out of the context, then claim that it shows something that it doesn't.

If the Cohen was honest, he would have included a link to the ENTIRE SECTION of the IPCC so that the readers could see the full context, including all the other graphs that are relevant. For example, there is another graph from the same section that shows the LONG TERM projections relative to the 20th CENTURY average. That one would be more relevant to the discussion because THAT is what their scientists originally did and based their dire predictions. But that doesn't jive with the narrative he wants to portray.

Then it's time to move onto the "distraction" phase. The "we can't possibly be bad guys because we've published X papers", "look at all the good stuff we do now!", and such. That has no relevance on what WAS done (not to mention that they should have been doing this "good stuff" 30 years ago when their scientists said "we have a problem here").

And finally, we get to the standard denier tripe that "activists don't understand how complex climate science is", "won't someone think of the children", and other garbage.

Really Cohen? This is the best you can do? Arrogance and playing on the standard denier tropes? You're not even apologetic in spite of being caught.

The second link is just more of the same. Except Cohen tries to lend veracity to the "we did nothing wrong" by linking to some (not all) of the internal documentation on the subject. Feel free to read through them.

But the issue isn't whether or not Exxon was aware of global warming. They clearly had a solid group of scientists working on it as their research is in line with other climate research during that time. Several documents, including the board review, even prescribe sensible courses of action.

But oddly, those courses of actions were not taken. And that's the problem and why they suddenly find themselves under the microscope. The issue is Exxon was clearly aware of global warming and the dangers it presented, then deliberately acted to disrupt/delay anything being done about it. They ignored their own scientists, and instead funded denier/anti-intelligence/anti-science organizations and spread FUD on the subject to the point where now we have idiots in congress holding up snowballs and complaining it's cold in winter so there isn't any global warming.

And sadly, their strategy worked. They and their ilk have managed to delay meaningful action for over 30 years. In fact, we are only now getting to the point in the discussion that their scientists predicted we'd be at in the late 80's/early 90's. Honestly I don't think anyone could have imagined how effective their global snow job would be. It almost makes the snow job done by the tobacco companies look amateurish by comparison.

People like Cohen are a dime a dozen, and every sizeable firm has at least one just for situations like this. Expect more nonsense like this to come out, except playing stronger to the "victim" angle as the "evil activists" attack the "poor defenseless Exxon".

But really, it's just about public opinion. As I said in my "paraphrase", Exxon has so many hands going to so many pockets I seriously doubt anything meaningful will come out of this. And it's given plenty of warning to other companies to burn their internal documents and establish plausible deniability schemes in case they get hauled in next.

Well, at the very least with all this internal docs coming to light showing that these big fossil fuel companies were well aware of global warming and it's causes and consequences, maybe some will finally wise up and pay attention to actual science instead of their favorite clueless talking head.

Yeah, who am I kidding. :P





Quoting 153. KoritheMan:



The problem with being politically correct is that it discourages calling a spade a spade. Respect is one thing, but I'm of the opinion that incidentally offending someone with an argument is fine. If you can't tolerate opinions you don't like, you shouldn't be an adult.


No, the problem is that a number of so-called adults can't tell the difference between calling a spade a spade and being a hate-filled racist bigot. As evidence, I present the internet.

As for undocumented immigrants, they come here for a reason and it certainly isn't our warm hospitality and friendly demeanor. If there was no benefit to coming here, then they wouldn't.

The problem is that most of them are coming from third world crap holes so even having clean water and food is enough of an incentive for the risk. There isn't one of us who wouldn't do the same if we were in their position.

Quoting 156. Xyrus2000:



The problem is that most of them are coming from third world crap holes so even having clean water and food is enough of an incentive for the risk. There isn't one of us who wouldn't do the same if we were in their position.
I agree, and I'm pretty chill about immigration. I was more speaking on a general basis. I mean, you even have some people - thankful minority - espousing that it's more proper to call someone say, a homosexual, rather than gay. Or keeping your opinions to yourself. I meant things like that.
Quoting 140. ColoradoBob1:

PensacolaDoug

Please explain this without a warming world and more water vapor in the system -


North Central Gulf Coast Historic Flash Flood Event %u2013 29-30 April 2014
Also of note, the official NWS reporting sites at Mobile Regional Airport (MOB) and Pensacola Regional Airport (PNS) received some record rainfall amounts for 29 April. MOB saw 11.24" during the calendar day. This is their 3rd greatest calendar day total on record. Data here goes back to 1871. PNS recorded an estimated 15.55". Data were lost due to power outage between 10-11 PM CDT, so amounts were estimated using Dual Pol radar precipitation estimates. This is their greatest calendar day total on record. PNS rainfall data goes back to 1879. Of interest in the PNS total is the 5.68" that fell in 1 hour between 02Z-03Z. A quick peek of the NOAA HDSC Precipitation Frequency map shows this to be a 1 in 200 year to 1 in 500 year 1 hourly amount. The 24 hour amount is between a 1 in 50 and 1 in 100 year event. The Mobile 24 hour total is about a 1 in 25 year event.

Of significance, the two day estimated total for Pensacola of 20.47" lies between a 1 in 100 to 1 in 200 year event.


Link


Instead of my explaining how it wasn't, why don't you prove that it was.
Rarely, I'm with Doug on this (twofold, actually!). Asking someone to prove that global warming didn't cause a random flash flood in a highly localized location is asinine.

Obviously more warming = more water vapor. In that vein, heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently, and with greater vigor. That doesn't mean though that they'll always supersede past events, and even if they do, we literally have no reason to assume that the net increase in water vapor is going to be evenly distributed.
Quoting 158. PensacolaDoug:

Instead of my explaining how it wasn't, why don't you prove that it was.

Warming world, more water vapour in the system. Proof was supplied. But the actual burden is with you.
just as the long term models predicted almost a week ago typhoon in fa is going to merge with a winter storm in the nw pac then cross the pacific.
alot of the legal immigrants have come from asia. they are going to be doctors and engineers in the us..
167. MahFL
Gust of 113mph on top of Ward Mountain, CA.
northeast folks,stay alert first week of December,models continue hinting at a storm...
Quoting 161. cRRKampen:


Warming world, more water vapour in the system. Proof was supplied. But the actual burden is with you.
Your assertion doesn't meet any standard of proof that I ever heard of. Refer to post 160. I like what he said.
Quoting 166. islander101010:

alot of the legal immigrants have come from asia. they are going to be doctors and engineers in the us..
we all must remember, unless your native American, we all here in the states are from immigrants,our ancestors came here to start a new life in a new land..only trouble now ..,there is fear of this terrorist thing..otherwise they would be welcomed,Canada is accepting with open arms, 25,000 of them the news said.
Quoting 160. KoritheMan:

Rarely, I'm with Doug on this (twofold, actually!). Asking someone to prove that global warming didn't cause a random flash flood in a highly localized location is asinine
Just as asinine--in fact, perhaps even more so--is assuming as some do that our rapidly warming atmosphere somehow plays absolutely no part in any of the increasingly extreme and frequent severe weather events we're seeing around the globe.

Now, neither Bob no cRRKampen ever stated the "random flash flood" was "caused" by global warming. What "causes" a car accident? The driver's temporary inattention? The low angle of the sun? The damp roadway? Driving too fast? An animal crossing the highway? A piece of debris? Worn brakes? Too much weight? The answer is: none and all. There are a lot of factors involved in every event. Take away one of those factors, and the event might have happened differently, or it may not have happened at all. Climate change is like that. It's a factor in *every* weather event, and at this stage it's quite literally impossible to separate the two. Sometimes it's a huge factor; sometimes it's a tiny, almost imperceptible one. But like a traffic accident investigator, it's important to objectively look at all factors that went into a particular event, and not simply dismiss any at the start because it doesn't fit your ideology or your preconceived notions.
semper necessitas probandi incumbit ei qui agit ---> the necessity of proof always lies with the person who lays charges
174. MahFL
Quoting 171. LargoFl:

we all must remember, unless your native American, we all here in the states are from immigrants,our ancestors came here to start a new life in a new land...


A lot of white Republicans conveniently forget that point.
You may want to re-read those two fellas posts Nea. That was the implication stated outright or not. I never said CC didn't play a roll. I didn't take a position either way. I have also stated on these pages many times that the planet has indeed gotten warmer. I've just never been fully convinced that it is all man kinds doing.
Quoting 174. MahFL:



A lot of white Republicans conveniently forget that point.


Now I just got an image in my mind of a herd of angry fat white elephants.

Great...now I will have to start drinking early just erase it.

Cheers
Qazulight
The other day news put out statements recorded by the Prince of Wales before the Paris attacks that climate change may have been a factor in the emergence of civil war in Syria.

Prince Charles told Sky News: "We're seeing a classic case of not dealing with the problem because, it sounds awful to say, but some of us were saying 20 something years ago that if we didn't tackle these issues you would see ever greater conflict over scarce resources and ever greater difficulties over drought, and the accumulating effect of climate change, which means that people have to move.

"And there's very good evidence indeed that one of the major reasons for this horror in Syria, funnily enough, was a drought that lasted for about five or six years, which meant that huge numbers of people in the end had to leave the land."

Asked if there was a direct link between climate change, conflict and terrorism, he added: "It's only in the last few years that the Pentagon have actually started to pay attention to this. It has a huge impact on what is happening.

"The difficulty is sometimes to get this point across - that if we just leave it and say, well there are obviously lots of, there are endless problems arising all over the place therefore we deal with them in a short-term way, we never deal with the underlying root cause which regrettably is what we're doing to our natural environment."

"We're now facing a real possibility of nature's bank going bust"
-Prince Charles

AP photo
Looks like Nino 3.4 has increased to 3.2C! Reason for the increase is 4C anomalies across the eastern regions of Nino 3.4. Just amazing what is going on as this El-Nino continues to climb.

Having some fleeting showers this morning..

On to nuclear news.

Saw Japan recently restarted a second nuclear plant, despite the best minds in the would are unable to stop the waste of Fukushima..

Nuclear incident this morning in Washington State. It had 2 of 5 bars as far as how serious an incident. Usually these get none. They really aren't stating like they usually do that "nothing was released, no worries for the public", but also the plant is still in operation.

Nuclear Event in United States of America on November 25 2015 08:15 AM (UTC).
A pin-hole leak has been discovered in a second fuel rod at Energy Northwest's nuclear power plant near Richland. The Columbia Generating Station had not had a fuel defect since 2002 until one was detected last week. The leaks in the two rods could be caused by a manufacturing defect or by foreign material wearing a tiny hole. The plant has 70,288 fuel rods in its reactor core and even with the damaged rods taken out of service it is producing electricity at full power. However, before its next refueling outage in May 2017, the plant will reduce power about 0.3 percent per day for about two weeks earlier than planned, according to Energy Northwest. The cause of the leaks will not be determined until the outage. Slightly elevated levels of xenon and krypton gasses in the reactor's recirculation system led to the discovery of both leaks. But the levels detected are at least 1,000 times under the limits of technical specifications for continued plant operation, according to Energy Northwest.
What was the white man when we came here? A terrorist or illegal immigrant? The winners of conflict write the history they want told not the inconvenient truths of the underbelly of that said history. Bottom line, we should take the Syrians in small numbers who CAN be really vetted. What really must be done is take the territory of ISIS with a huge ground force of coalition partners, mostly Sunni Muslims if possible. We must, QUICKLY take the ground and heart out of ISIS and set up refugee camps which will repatriate tens of millions in Syria and Iraq. Will cost the world trillions. But it must be done or this situation quickly becomes worse for the refugees and the world and will destabilize Europe and the world's economy.
As of last night there was still 30,000 without power from the historic windstorm that hit Washington State. There is some crazy wind videos emerging from that event.


Quoting 181. Skyepony:

As of last night there was still 30,000 without power from the historic windstorm that hit Washington State. There is some crazy wind videos emerging from that event.





Cheezy background music! LOL
Quoting 180. DeepSeaRising:

What was the white man when we came here? A terrorist or illegal immigrant? The winners of conflict write the history they want told not the inconvenient truths of the underbelly of that said history. Bottom line, we should take the Syrians in small numbers who CAN be really vetted. What really must be done is take the territory of ISIS with a huge ground force of coalition partners, mostly Sunni Muslims if possible. We must, QUICKLY take the ground and heart out of ISIS and set up refugee camps which will repatriate tens of millions in Syria and Iraq. Will cost the world trillions. But it must be done or this situation quickly becomes worse for the refugees and the world and will destabilize Europe and the world's economy.


I am fine with taking in these Syrian refugees as long as we can track them. We've seen what happened in Paris where atleast 1 of those responsible for the Terrorist attacks was a refugee. Isis plan is have some of these terrorist pose as refugees only to develop plots to disrupt the world later. This is a serious and touchy topic amongst most Americans and I feel it is irresponsible to just say oh lets live in peace in harmony when its peace & harmony that is always getting attacked.
Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:



I am fine with taking in these Syrian refugees as long as we can track them. We've seen what happened in Paris where atleast 1 of those responsible for the Terrorist attacks was a refugee. Isis plan is have some of these terrorist pose as refugees only to develop plots to disrupt the world later. This is a serious and touchy topic amongst most Americans and I feel it is irresponsible to just say oh lets live in peace in harmony when its peace & harmony that is always getting attacked.


All 8 held European Passports, not one has been identified as a refugee by the official investigation.

"But while investigators are still unravelling the plot, one fact is clear at this point: Not one Paris attacker has been officially identified as a refugee.

The eight people officially named in connection with the Paris attacks were all European citizens who held European passports, allowing them to move in and out of Europe with a high degree of freedom.

Speculation that led some to link the Paris attacks to the refugee crisis was spurred by the discovery of a Syrian passport near one of the suicide bombers. The passport was issued in the name of Ahmad Al-Mohammad, a 25-year-old from the rebel-held Syrian city of Idlib.

French officials have said that the bomber's fingerprints match a set taken in Greece in October when a person holding Al-Mohammad's passport entered the Greek island of Leros from Turkey. The man later entered Serbia, where authorities took fingerprints matching those taken in Greece. The following day, the man crossed into Croatia, according to a Serbian security official who spoke to The Associated Press.

However, it is not known whether the suicide bomber was indeed Al-Mohammad or someone traveling with a fake Syrian passport, which have become legion inside and outside Europe." Continued reading here: for bios on the attackers, last updated 2 days ago. This refugee meme has been circulating around and is nothing more than pure speculation. It is to instill fear in you.
Quoting 130. Grothar:




We had a freeze warning here in Central Texas on Monday. Temps are now back into the 60s with Sandra's moisture foretasted to be ejected through the state with 6+ expected inches in some spots. The weather has been quite interesting around here to say the very least.
Quoting 184. Naga5000:



All 8 held European Passports, not one has been identified as a refugee by the official investigation.

"But while investigators are still unravelling the plot, one fact is clear at this point: Not one Paris attacker has been officially identified as a refugee.

The eight people officially named in connection with the Paris attacks were all European citizens who held European passports, allowing them to move in and out of Europe with a high degree of freedom.

Speculation that led some to link the Paris attacks to the refugee crisis was spurred by the discovery of a Syrian passport near one of the suicide bombers. The passport was issued in the name of Ahmad Al-Mohammad, a 25-year-old from the rebel-held Syrian city of Idlib.

French officials have said that the bomber's fingerprints match a set taken in Greece in October when a person holding Al-Mohammad's passport entered the Greek island of Leros from Turkey. The man later entered Serbia, where authorities took fingerprints matching those taken in Greece. The following day, the man crossed into Croatia, according to a Serbian security official who spoke to The Associated Press.

However, it is not known whether the suicide bomber was indeed Al-Mohammad or someone traveling with a fake Syrian passport, which have become legion inside and outside Europe." Continued reading here: for bios on the attackers, last updated 2 days ago. This refugee meme has been circulating around and is nothing more than pure speculation. It is to instill fear in you.


That is bull as the Prosecutor did a press conference and said point blank one of the suspected terrorist was possibly a refugee. You continue to refuse to notice that this could be a problem and has already proven to be so.
Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:



That is bull as the Prosecutor did a press conference and said point blank one of the suspected terrorist was possibly a refugee. You continue to refuse to notice that this could be a problem and has already proven to be so.


Come on Scott, read some news. 4 days ago.

"THE PASSPORT IS FAKE: Authorities in multiple countries are pretty certain that the passport, found near the body of an unidentified attacker who died during his suicide assault of France's national soccer stadium, is fake. It carried the name of "Ahmad Almohammad," a 25-year-old Syrian. French officials have indicated that Almohammad was a loyalist soldier in the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and died a few months ago.

On Tuesday, Serbian police arrested another man at a refugee camp carrying a passport with the exact same details. It's not clear at all if he has any connection to the case, other than having used the same shadowy process of obtaining a forged Syrian passport. There is a great deal of precedent for migrants pretending to be Syrians to gain safer passage and sanctuary in Europe.

Thomas de Maiziere, Germany's interior minister, suggested on Tuesday that the fake passport found at the bombing site could have been part of an Islamic State attempt to create a "false trail." Link

You were duped by a scare tactic with no supporting evidence.

Edit: NYT has a detailed outline of the attackers, again, no evidence to support a refugee among them as of yet. Link

ISIS would really love it if you hated the refugees, it adds more power to their recruitment tactics.
When I say I come her for weather it is for a good reason..because some people I feel are very disconnected with the real world and I disagree with their views..so I stick to weather on here.Right now there is nothing amazing going on here weather wise..just some sun but nothing else.
I know this is a little political, but relevant. We cannot keep voting these politicians into office that refuse to listen to science. It's really embarrassing.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/5654d95ae4b0d4093a 599b89
A new WWB west of the Dateline set to come across the Pacific come December. Could see Nino 3.4 rise even more over the next few weeks..

Indeed Naga. This rift that is widening against Muslims as a whole in the West may be the best recruitment tool ISIS has.
Quoting 59. Gearsts:

Strong El nino's are usually follow by La ninas.


This is not universally true.
Quoting 178. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like Nino 3.4 has increased to 3.2C! Reason for the increase is 4C anomalies across the eastern regions of Nino 3.4. Just amazing what is going on as this El-Nino continues to climb.



Just Awesome!! The weather and Climate have NO BOUNDS
Quoting 151. StormTrackerScott:

So far 0Z models have a southern jet on steroids. Geesh guys get ready especially here in FL as it is looking active next week.

Scott we had a surprise gust to 45mph in inland palm beach county with .50" in 10 minutes. Just in past hour. Not official at PBIA but at my house I have a personal weather station with an anenometer
The world is continuing to wake up seismically as two earthquakes rock South America 7.7 and 7.6 within a days time. Check out the data from 2009 until now the facts are staggering. Volcanoes and Earthquakes on the Rise big time
Quoting 138. ColoradoBob1:

I cried tonight as I watched American Experience , because my mother wasn't here to see it.
It was on The Pilgrims .

Not because we are from blue bloods up North, but because these old themes of American history, she found on her own as genealogist searching our family roots.
As we watch the modern refugees , in our snug modern homes this Thanksgiving. we have a very little idea what horrors, the people that made us when through.

Even after a decade of hanging on The Pilgrims . , were strong enough to cut the head off an Indian leader, and place it on pike in the middle of Plymouth.

It's really great 2 hour history , complex, and filled with the human experience, one of the best PBS have ever done. Watch it if can.


I too watched this but my thoughts were different. Part of my family were here on the the NA continent before the Pilgrims landed by almost 20 years but then my father came here in 1933. So I see it as a mixed bag. Both sides of the family were illegal aliens. My ancestors from Spain did not get permission from the natives already here to come to this continent and became US citizens because they already lived where the US took over after Texas became a state. I'm not 100% sure that my father came over completely legally but he served the US Army with distinction for 27 years. That being said, we are all a bunch of mutts here who try to make the best of it and who am I to deny someone a chance to share in our good fortune. They are no more terrorists than any of my family. This should be the message of the Pilgrims. They came here too without permission as well.
Quoting 196. WeatherConvoy:


Scott we had a surprise gust to 45mph in inland palm beach county with .50" in 10 minutes. Just in past hour. Not official at PBIA but at my house I have a personal weather station with an anenometer


off & on rain showers moving quickly off the ocean today. Pattern gets more active next week though as the southern jet gets much stronger once December comes around. Also it will be interesting to see what the ONI comes in @ for SON as we will end November with 3.1C or 3.2C for ENSO 3.4. A Feat many on here thought wasn't possible and the CFSv2/Euro had warm bias well those models have been spot on with their forecast from April/May. #SpringBarrierWasABust
A group of science students yesterday were proposing a Rogue Planet or a binary star system within our own Solar System. Not as far fetched as one thinks as most solar systems are Binary Star Systems. One of our Closest stars Sirius is a Binary Star system. I don't endorse this but if this is true maybe the uptick in seismic activity. Food for Thought I guess.
Quoting 156. Xyrus2000:



No, the problem is that a number of so-called adults can't tell the difference between calling a spade a spade and being a hate-filled racist bigot. As evidence, I present the internet.

As for undocumented immigrants, they come here for a reason and it certainly isn't our warm hospitality and friendly demeanor. If there was no benefit to coming here, then they wouldn't.

The problem is that most of them are coming from third world crap holes so even having clean water and food is enough of an incentive for the risk. There isn't one of us who wouldn't do the same if we were in their position.


Good post. Our country is made up entirely of people who came here from a better life. Much of Europe was just such a craphole as any place and in the 19th century many came here from Europe with the same idea. And then the same people who now use the internet for their bigotry expressed the same type of hatred to to the people who came here after them like they were so special because they got here earlier. Many of the same arguments made today were made 150 years ago speaking of the Irish, Chinese, Italians, Jews, you name it. Today they are the families who make up the bulwark of our industry and technology.
Quoting 148. ElConando:

My people were unwelcome nearly everywhere they went until following World War II. It is that knowledge that makes me uncomfortable with the way we are treated those who come here for a better opportunity. A pathway to citizenship would be ideal, but enough people in this country are not going to accept that just yet. The way to citizenship isn't written in stone and it should change with the times, hopefully in time it shall.
Hello Conan. The situation was different during WW-2, and the current situation requires that all people entering the country be screened, whether they are visiting or planning to become citizens. Terrorists have already infiltrated to a dangerous level, and more needs to be done to stop it immediately.
Quoting 187. Naga5000:



Come on Scott, read some news. 4 days ago.

"THE PASSPORT IS FAKE: Authorities in multiple countries are pretty certain that the passport, found near the body of an unidentified attacker who died during his suicide assault of France's national soccer stadium, is fake. It carried the name of "Ahmad Almohammad," a 25-year-old Syrian. French officials have indicated that Almohammad was a loyalist soldier in the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and died a few months ago.

On Tuesday, Serbian police arrested another man at a refugee camp carrying a passport with the exact same details. It's not clear at all if he has any connection to the case, other than having used the same shadowy process of obtaining a forged Syrian passport. There is a great deal of precedent for migrants pretending to be Syrians to gain safer passage and sanctuary in Europe.

Thomas de Maiziere, Germany's interior minister, suggested on Tuesday that the fake passport found at the bombing site could have been part of an Islamic State attempt to create a "false trail." Link

You were duped by a scare tactic with no supporting evidence.

Edit: NYT has a detailed outline of the attackers, again, no evidence to support a refugee among them as of yet. Link

ISIS would really love it if you hated the refugees, it adds more power to their recruitment tactics.



ISIS or Daesh as I would prefer them called did this entirely knowingly with the likelihood that the response would be exactly that Scott is espousing. They don't want the world to see Syrians fleeing their rule plus they need a population which they can lord over and use for slaves. This is working because we are the fools.
RI currently well under way for Sandra, should be a Major Hurricane soon, eye visible and clearing out.




Quoting 202. hydrus:

Hello Conan. The situation was different during WW-2, and the current situation requires that all people entering the country be screened, whether they are visiting or planning to become citizens. Terrorists have already infiltrated to a dangerous level, and more needs to be done to stop it immediately.


Exactly. You hate to do that but something does need to be done or more Paris Attacks will become the norm. Fact is this is a very different era than the 1930's & 1940's.
500,000 multi national peace keeping force
disarm region
set local residents in an observed election process
establish a rebuilding process for cites/towns
send the refugees home

simple .

Quoting 169. PensacolaDoug:

Your assertion doesn't meet any standard of proof that I ever heard of. Refer to post 160. I like what he said.

He said the same thing, using three lines instead of one short line. That constitutes 'proof' for you?
Anyway, if you take what he said, then my message has served. He explained it a little more, true. E.g.: ".. we literally have no reason to assume that the net increase in water vapor is going to be evenly distributed."

We literally have reason to assume the net increase will be unevenly distributed. It all comes down to an average 5-7% increase in water vapour for every degree (C) of temp rise; this water will have to come from somewhere (deepening drought) and it will have to drop somewhere (more, and more extreme floods).

Trenberth's Law

"That doesn't mean though that they'll always supersede past events" - it may mean just that: the dice have become loaded. The way records are broken now actually render the past the past and its statistics meaningless.

Quoting 188. washingtonian115:

When I say I come her for weather it is for a good reason..because some people I feel are very disconnected with the real world and I disagree with their views..so I stick to weather on here.Right now there is nothing amazing going on here weather wise..just some sun but nothing else.

Yes it appears that TV news, all of them, are an excellent substitute for a frontal lobotomy.
Quoting 202. hydrus:

Hello Conan. The situation was different during WW-2, and the current situation requires that all people entering the country be screened, whether they are visiting or planning to become citizens. Terrorists have already infiltrated to a dangerous level, and more needs to be done to stop it immediately.

"Terrorists have already infiltrated to a dangerous level" - but all are homegrown. The several Paris attacks this year for instance: all French or Belgian citizens. Nothing infiltrated, they were already there.
Quoting 202. hydrus:

Hello Conan. The situation was different during WW-2, and the current situation requires that all people entering the country be screened, whether they are visiting or planning to become citizens. Terrorists have already infiltrated to a dangerous level, and more needs to be done to stop it immediately.


Agree with all of that except the terrorists have already infiltrated to a dangerous level. In America? Not as of yet with what our intelligence knows. Self radicalization is a much larger threat as it is becoming rampant in all fifty states. Could not agree more with the screening part. Vetting is a must and that is no small nor easy question to address.
Quoting 175. PensacolaDoug:

You may want to re-read those two fellas posts Nea. That was the implication stated outright or not. I never said CC didn't play a roll. I didn't take a position either way. I have also stated on these pages many times that the planet has indeed gotten warmer. I've just never been fully convinced that it is all man kinds doing.

Hi Doug, your post make a lot of sense, of course the climate is always changing, and it's been a lot warmer and a lot colder. I would like to know with the ever increasing population on this small planet, if the temp. will increase accordingly. There is so much more going on in this universe and on this planet that we don't understand, that I doubt CO2 is the only thing affecting the climate changing to a warmer planet. I am just glad that the planet is not cooling as this would be a lot worse for this ever increasing population.
Quoting 210. tampabaymatt:



In fairness, the media was initially reporting that one of the Paris attackers was a Syrian refugee. I don't believe it was ever 100% confirmed, but that was what was reported by reputable news outlets. I don't think it was a fear tactic. Not everything is a conspiracy.


It sure was as this was released from the prosecutor himself. What he said was it was possible one was a refugee. This was just after the attack. I haven't seen much about it on the news recently so I didn't know it was confirmed they were all from Europe.
I would also screen anyone traveling from the US to Syria and from Syria to US. All persons leaving are traveling to Syria needs to be screened as well or just impose a complete travel ban to Syria
Quoting 189. SecretStormNerd:

I know this is a little political, but relevant. We cannot keep voting these politicians into office that refuse to listen to science. It's really embarrassing.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/5654d95ae4b0d4093a 599b89
Good morning SSN...Probably the toughest hurdle we have to clear before big changes are made..It will happen though.
Quoting 206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

500,000 multi national peace keeping force
disarm region
set local residents in an observed election process
establish a rebuilding process for cites/towns
send the refugees home

simple .







Simple?


You really have no clue what you are saying.
Quoting 209. cRRKampen:


"Terrorists have already infiltrated to a dangerous level" - but all are homegrown. The several Paris attacks this year for instance: all French or Belgian citizens. Nothing infiltrated, they were already there.
Did you not read my post carefully.?..I stated that " they " have already infiltrated.
3 US terrorists shot 5 in Minnesota.

Where is the outrage?

20 children were murdered in Sandy Hook and we did nothing.

9 were killed in S. Carolina by a US Terrorist.

Those of us who have seen terror up close, ie: the Beirut Bombing in October 83 can say this.

Until the driving force of this Planet becomes something other than the gathering of wealth by Men and Nations,nothing will ever change.

Those clamoring for War need to understand that recuruiters will be open all day today.


Be all u can be.

Semper Fi'

Have a Happy Thanksgiving and maybe feed a Homeless person.







Looking up something for work and my blog was posted on Google as the most searched. That is something. Must be a lot people wanting to know how this El-Nino will affect them in Florida. Largo said he saw it last night but I thought no way and sure enough there it is.
Quoting 219. hydrus:

Did you not read my post carefully.?..I stated that " they " have already infiltrated.

They have not. They were born and raised in Europe.
If you call that 'infiltration', as if their parents were 'infiltrators', then I'm afraid you are hosting an abhorrent ideology.
Feel free to use my entry here to post on the off topic issue espoused here.


Russia,Turkey and Paris
#224,

says the Guy who believes the Sun has a Binary companion,,and is causing earthquakes?

Ok, Jim.....,now


Where be the Romulan Ale, bro?
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:

Looking up something for work and my blog was posted on Google as the most searched. That is something. Must be a lot people wanting to know how this El-Nino will affect them in Florida. Largo said he saw it last night but I thought no way and sure enough there it is.



"most searched on Google" The current most searched topics on Google have over a million searches.
Yesterday's top searched on Google was

Who is Lucy the Australopithecus
5,000,000 searchesRelated searches: lucy, lucy the australopithecus
How Lucy the Australopithecus Changed the Way We Understand Human Evolution
Quoting 225. cRRKampen:


They have not. They were born and raised in Europe.
If you call that 'infiltration', as if their parents were 'infiltrators', then I'm afraid you are hosting an abhorrent ideology.

I,m going to drop it. This isnt the place for it. You misunderstood my comment. The parents could feasibly be here anyway.
Quoting 157. KoritheMan:


I agree, and I'm pretty chill about immigration. I was more speaking on a general basis. I mean, you even have some people - thankful minority - espousing that it's more proper to call someone say, a homosexual, rather than gay. Or keeping your opinions to yourself. I meant things like that.


I know what you meant, and anyone with decency and common sense would think the same way. But rules and regulations aren't there for decent people with common sense. They're for people like...oh, let's say Rush Limbaugh. :)


Hurricane 22E

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2015 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 12:19:32 N Lon : 109:31:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 972.3mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.6

Center Temp : -59.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.2 degrees





Quoting 216. StormTrackerScott:



Well what is interesting is Trump is surging in the polls so people are buying his propaganda.


Remember in Nazi Germany, the largely Christian population was shaken, bought into the propaganda; and the rest is history. I agree that allowing Syrians in is a real risk and must be handled as such and I agree that Trump is surging based on his anti-Muslim views. This is not an answer to the problem. What it does do, is further ISIS's agenda and creates fear in for American's, especially peaceful Muslims in America. During the first Crusade, Muslims, Jews, and Christians were living peacefully in Jerusalem under Muslim rule. After that war against Muslim's, it was never so again. American's are so fearful because this President has the worst foreign policy since ol' George W. and we vacillate as opposed to using the strongest military in the world to crush a relatively small number of brutal Islamist terrorists. We keep swatting the Wolf with a broom as oppose to shooting it in the head and then wiping out it's den. The President is fearful and his policy represents that and you now see it reflected in the American's thinking. The power's that be, NATO members, US, Russia, and on and on could put a force together that could end this in a short time. But to Pat's point, until the driving force is not the gathering of wealth by the very top 1%'s and Nations, this can not be so. We shouldn't be alone with a ground force. That just creates more terrorists. Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt must be the body that makes up the ground force. Not going to happen. So that leaves us needing the NATO members with the US and Russia to do it. It can be done. That coalition could put a half million force on the ground in a year's time. Are we willing to spend the trillion to do it? And if not, are we willing for this to spread and last a generation? No easy answers.
Quoting 228. Sfloridacat5:




"most searched on Google" The current most searched topics on Google have over a million searches.
Yesterday's top searched on Google was

Who is Lucy the Australopithecus
5,000,000 searchesRelated searches: lucy, lucy the australopithecus
How Lucy the Australopithecus Changed the Way We Understand Human Evolution

LoL
Quoting 233. justmehouston:



Last night I delivered all the things necessary for a wonderful Thanksgiving (including wine) to three families in my neighborhood that I knew were struggling with recent job losses. Set me back about $450.00 but was happy to do it. My life has been in a major downswing here recently and wanted to bring some positive back in to it.



He who stops to help another is favored by God and the Universe.

Your good deed is a example of what empathy means, and I thank you for it.
Quoting 233. justmehouston:



Last night I delivered all the things necessary for a wonderful Thanksgiving (including wine) to three families in my neighborhood that I knew were struggling with recent job losses. Set me back about $450.00 but was happy to do it. My life has been in a major downswing here recently and wanted to bring some positive back in to it.

Excellent post. Kindness such as this will come back to you one day.
Quoting 232. hydrus:




Looks like some stiff rain totals downstream,eh?

: )
Quoting 229. hydrus:

I,m going to drop it. This isnt the place for it. You misunderstood my comment. The parents could feasibly be here anyway.

Well, I understood your comment to mean: infiltrated via the refugee influx. The only other way for 'infiltration' would be via normal immigration. But infiltration does mean: the perps were not here (in Europe) before but came in here somehow. This is obviously not true.
Not wanting to cut you short - but this is, indeed, OT (mea culpa as well as yours :) ) so maybe we should leave at this, or go over to Patrap's.
Quoting 236. Patrap:



He who stops to help another is favored by God and the Universe.

Your good deed is a example of what empathy means, and I thank you for it.
Fat plus for this.
Quoting 226. Patrap:

Feel free to use my entry here to post on the off topic issue espoused here.


Russia,Turkey and Paris


Good idea Patrick. I hope everyone sees this as an alternative to politicizing the weather blog.
The weather news is a little slow and people are looking for a place to express their worries. But it gets to be too much to wade through in a weather blog.
Semper Fi.
I'll keep it to the weather.

It has not snowed at my house yet.

Sad but true.

But,

The ski hills are alive with the sound of snow guns.

I hope to be skiing soon.
Quoting 242. ChiThom:



Good idea Patrick. I hope everyone sees this as an alternative to politicizing the weather blog.
The weather news is a little slow and people are looking for a place to express their worries. But it gets to be too much to wade through in a weather blog.
Semper Fi.

Well, the weather news isn't slow at all, but all those record tropical cyclones are so bóóring..
Quoting 245. cRRKampen:


Well, the weather news isn't slow at all, but all those record tropical cyclones are so bóóring..


Oh. Hehe.
Quoting 233. justmehouston:



Last night I delivered all the things necessary for a wonderful Thanksgiving (including wine) to three families in my neighborhood that I knew were struggling with recent job losses. Set me back about $450.00 but was happy to do it. My life has been in a major downswing here recently and wanted to bring some positive back in to it.

Okay though ...these people werent homeless ...just down at the moment.
The homeless I take care of almost daily in some fashion, whether it be through donating food, giving money to outstretched hands or passing out gloves and umbrellas or jackets ...the homeless are always in my heart

That was a terrific thing you did. I imagine those three families are in need at this moment as much as anyone. Job loss and unemployment are really devastating to families, for those who live on the edge, and those who get pushed closer to the edge because they lost a good job. You did what your heart told you to do, and that's enough when it comes to charity.
Just had a small fast moving rain shower blow thru. Just enough to wet the street.
Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:



I am fine with taking in these Syrian refugees as long as we can track them.


You're right. We need some way to know where they are at all times. Let's see, how about a yellow crescent and star on their clothes? It could even be fashionable!

And then...then maybe we should set up special places where they can go. You know, places where they can be together with their own, work, and so on so it will be less disruptive. We could re-educate them there to help better integrate into our society. Since we would be concentrating them there, and it would be a place of re-education, we could call them Concentration Camps!

But it would be so hard to tell all of them apart in such camps. All of them mingling around, all of them with those yellow crescents and stars. Hmmm...perhaps we could tattoo QR codes onto their forearms. That way anyone with a cellphone would be able to tell who they are without all the confusion.They could even get special refugee discounts at special refugee stores!

And thoe who aren't happy with the arrangements are always free to hop on the black train back to the airport to be flown home. Strange though, the train doesn't seem to go to any airports or towns....I wonder how they get back there?

Anyway, sounds like a great plan. I seem to vaguely recall some country in Europe doing something like this but history class was SOOOOO boring. And those silly Europeans probably screwed it up anyway. We'll do it twice as big and do it right!

Fear is the first stop on the train to tyranny. Looks like your you've bought your boarding pass.
Quoting 237. ACSeattle:


If The Donald is doing his best, then it is excruciatingly obvious that his best falls far short of what is needed; that, in fact, his "best" would be a catastrophe for this country.

Speaking of Donald Trump

Quoting 240. cRRKampen:


Well, I understood your comment to mean: infiltrated via the refugee influx. The only other way for 'infiltration' would be via normal immigration. But infiltration does mean: the perps were not here (in Europe) before but came in here somehow. This is obviously not true.
Not wanting to cut you short - but this is, indeed, OT (mea culpa as well as yours :) ) so maybe we should leave at this, or go over to Patrap's.
Refugee influx had nothing to do with what I was saying other than they could increase the threat. The terrorists were here long before they killed those people in Paris, and I dont mean the individuals that carried out the mass murder in France.

Way to rise above it all. Thanks for making the world a better place.

Quoting 233. justmehouston:



Last night I delivered all the things necessary for a wonderful Thanksgiving (including wine) to three families in my neighborhood that I knew were struggling with recent job losses. Set me back about $450.00 but was happy to do it. My life has been in a major downswing here recently and wanted to bring some positive back in to it.

Okay though ...these people werent homeless ...just down at the moment.
The homeless I take care of almost daily in some fashion, whether it be through donating food, giving money to outstretched hands or passing out gloves and umbrellas or jackets ...the homeless are always in my heart

Are we having fun today or what?! This is a huge issue and there are no answers right now. This is now front and center in American's thoughts and American's are fearful. Europe is fearful. ISIS has us in the West right where they want us. The president of France is in Germany today and is headed to Moscow next. No matter one's political affiliation or those such as myself who have none, lets hope the free world comes together in unity and not fear to really address ISIS. They must be crushed and defeated. We are stronger together than apart. Fear is not an American quality.
Quoting 200. WeatherConvoy:

A group of science students yesterday were proposing a Rogue Planet or a binary star system within our own Solar System. Not as far fetched as one thinks as most solar systems are Binary Star Systems. One of our Closest stars Sirius is a Binary Star system. I don't endorse this but if this is true maybe the uptick in seismic activity. Food for Thought I guess.


Not even remotely possible. Any binary companion capable of inducing tidal stresses strong enough to induce seismic activity on Earth would show up as orbital perturbations in the rest of the solar system. Other things that would be affected would be satellite trajectories which would have to account for the gravitational pull of such an object in order to arrive at their destinations (like Cassini, the Mars Rovers, etc.).

And FYI, there is no "uptick" in seismic activity. So far this year has been about average. Strong quakes appearing back to back is nothing new, as strong quakes are often followed by strong aftershocks (some of which can be stronger than the original quake).
During this Thanksgiving holiday may we all remember thanksgiving is a verb. May we all be thankful we are not in the plight of the twenty to forty million refugees in the world today.
Link

Sometimes, when the blog gets a little ugly, a little Arlo Guthrie is in order. In honor of Thanksgiving: Alice's Restaurant
Quoting 197. WeatherConvoy:

The world is continuing to wake up seismically as two earthquakes rock South America 7.7 and 7.6 within a days time. Check out the data from 2009 until now the facts are staggering. Volcanoes and Earthquakes on the Rise big time
From the USGS. These are people who actually know something about earthquakes, not websites with an agenda about earthquakes.

Why are we having so many earthquakes? Has earthquake activity been increasing? Does this mean a big one is going to hit? OR We haven't had any earthquakes in a long time; does this mean that the pressure is building up and a big one is coming?

A temporary increase or decrease in seismicity is part of the normal fluctuation of earthquake rates. Neither an increase or decrease worldwide is a positive indication that a large earthquake is imminent.

The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year, or approximately 55 per day. As a result of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about earthquakes more quickly than ever before.

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 16 major earthquakes in any given year, which includes 15 earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range and one earthquake magnitude 8.0 or greater. In the past 38 years, from 1973 through 2011, our records show that we have exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes only 8 times, in 1976, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

The year with the largest total was 2010, with 24 earthquakes greater than or equal to magnitude 7.0. In other years the total was well below the 16 per year expected based on the long-term average: 1989 only saw 6, while 1988 saw only 7 major earthquakes.
Link
well sandra's looking like a pretty strong hurricane fro the last week of november
Quoting 193. VAstorms:


This is not universally true.
Are you saying that you don't understand the definition of the word "usually"?

Because it does not imply that something is "universally true".

;-)
Quoting 233. justmehouston:



Last night I delivered all the things necessary for a wonderful Thanksgiving (including wine) to three families in my neighborhood that I knew were struggling with recent job losses. Set me back about $450.00 but was happy to do it. My life has been in a major downswing here recently and wanted to bring some positive back in to it.

Okay though ...these people werent homeless ...just down at the moment.
The homeless I take care of almost daily in some fashion, whether it be through donating food, giving money to outstretched hands or passing out gloves and umbrellas or jackets ...the homeless are always in my heart



Would have been a selfless act if you hadn't felt the need to tell us that you did it, how much you spent, and what a hardship on you it was. Instead you used your act of kindness to troll for praise. Thumbs up for the charity, thumbs down for blowing your own horn.
This is a battle for hearts and minds. Nothing short of good versus evil. It takes but one extremist with an automatic weapon on Black Friday to do unthinkable horrors. Self radicalization is the biggest threat to America, not refugees. That should be obvious. The bottom in America is so desperate. Makes easy targets for radicalization. We will see more home grown terrorism in the coming year. It will be bad. It will galvanize American's, much as 9/11 did. Opinion is already swinging swiftly to wanting a ground force in Syria and Iraq to blunt ISIS. Expect that to grow and in the coming months, our position will lead to us having a much a larger footprint in Syria and Iraq along with our NATO allies and Russia. We will see huge changes in policy in the coming months. Get ready for boots on the ground. It's coming. We must defeat this evil or have it spread like wildfire.
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:

Looking up something for work and my blog was posted on Google as the most searched. That is something. Must be a lot people wanting to know how this El-Nino will affect them in Florida. Largo said he saw it last night but I thought no way and sure enough there it is.
Congratulations and Happy Thanksgiving Scott! You rock and this proves it!
Quoting 261. LouisPasteur:



Would have been a selfless act if you hadn't felt the need to tell us that you did it, how much you spent, and what a hardship on you it was. Instead you used your act of kindness to troll for praise. Thumbs up for the charity, thumbs down for blowing your own horn.


Yes, yes, from a Christian perspective; do not let the left hand know what the right is doing. Her point is what are you doing to promote change and uplift the downtrodden? Her point, I think, is what are you doing to create the change you want to see? I don't think she's trolling for praise, I think she is expressing an example we should all follow. I commend her and am glad she shared what she's doing to do just that.
Here's something to think about. Right now, about 1.2 million people have outstanding arrest warrants from New York City. The NYPD knows who these people are, where they live, and they generally have pictures of them. They generally know where they work, where they go to school, and what neighborhood they were in when they were arrested. In many cases, they even have their fingerprints. Last year, about 90,000 of the 1.2 million were arrested on their warrant. Doesn't mean they ever cleared the warrant or appeared in court, just that they were arrested...in many cases, again and again. According to the NYPD, the reason why all 1.2 million weren't arrested on their outstanding warrants is they just don't have the resources to do so.

Now, extrapolate this out to about 11 million cases where we don't know where they live, where they work, what neighborhood they are in, or even what their real name is. Now add in the inevitable civil unrest that will occur as we start a round up and try to sort out the people who are allowed to be here from those who aren't. That should give you an idea of how practical that idea really is.
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Quoting 261. LouisPasteur:


Would have been a selfless act if you hadn't felt the need to tell us that you did it, how much you spent, and what a hardship on you it was. Instead you used your act of kindness to troll for praise. Thumbs up for the charity, thumbs down for blowing your own horn.


A little harsh the day before Thanksgiving don't you think? justme was only responding to Pat's suggestion to feed a homeless person. If thumbs go down for blowing ones own horn on this blog, we would very shortly run out of thumbs...
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Quoting 264. DeepSeaRising:



Yes, yes, from a Christian perspective; do not let the left hand know what the right is doing. His point is what are you doing to promote change and uplift the downtrodden? His point, I think, is what are you doing to create the change you want to see? I don't think he's trolling for praise, I think he is expressing an example we should all follow. I commend him and am glad he shared what he's doing to do just that.
There's a big difference from responding to a post with an illustration of what one has done and trolling for praise. Some here can't seem to understand that. BTW, justmehouston is really txjac. She forgot her password for the other account. :-)
Quoting 261. LouisPasteur:



Would have been a selfless act if you hadn't felt the need to tell us that you did it, how much you spent, and what a hardship on you it was. Instead you used your act of kindness to troll for praise. Thumbs up for the charity, thumbs down for blowing your own horn.


My apologies, I was responding to someone that mentioned we should be selfless ...but since you are offended I will remove my post

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours
Quoting 269. sar2401:

There's a big difference from responding to a post with an illustration of what one has done and trolling for praise. Some here can't seem to understand that. BTW, justmehouston is really txjac. She forgot her password for the other account. :-)


Thank you Sar! She's one of my favorites. And answers all I need to know about what she meant. She's awesome.
Quoting 261. LouisPasteur:



Would have been a selfless act if you hadn't felt the need to tell us that you did it, how much you spent, and what a hardship on you it was. Instead you used your act of kindness to troll for praise. Thumbs up for the charity, thumbs down for blowing your own horn.
Maybe REMINDING herself of the self-cost was one way to re-inforce the good feeling that came afterwards. At least she went out and DID IT!!!

and did not sit here looking for ways to NITPICK at others!

txjac- THANK YOU for your kindness, blow your horn ALL YOU WANT, encourage others to do the same! as the benefit GREATLY outweighs any silly self-serving you might have given yourself.

More people would do more good for others if it felt good to themselves.
Quoting 270. justmehouston:



My apologies, I was responding to someone that mentioned we should be selfless ...but since you are offended I will remove my post

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours


If we are the smartest, if we can work miracles, if we can do all things; without love we are but a clanging bell. I commend you for your love of those in need. I am such and wish I had but one of you in my life. Blessings always to you and yours.
Quoting 270. justmehouston:



My apologies, I was responding to someone that mentioned we should be selfless ...but since you are offended I will remove my post

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours
No, no, NO. Don't do that! If you've already done so, please put it back. There was nothing wrong with your post and I, for one, often need to be reminded about what others are doing to help people in need. There was only person responding to your post the way he or she did. It's just a form of terrorism. Don't give in to such an unwarranted attack.
Quoting 235. Patrap:

LoL
C'mon Pat, give Scott a break. We all know that he is smarter then Lucy.
I did not mean to plus post #261, my mistake. Since there is not a way to remove the plus that I’m aware of, I wanted to clarify. Personally, I’m happy to hear what good things others are doing if they want to share. Better than the usual negativity that is plastered all over this blog.
Quoting 237. ACSeattle:


If The Donald is doing his best, then it is excruciatingly obvious that his best falls far short of what is needed; that, in fact, his "best" would be a catastrophe for this country.
What would Hillary be?
Quoting 237. ACSeattle:

If The Donald is doing his best, then it is excruciatingly obvious that his best falls far short of what is needed; that, in fact, his "best" would be a catastrophe for this country.
Donald Trump is one of the best allies that ISIS has in the west. His political posturing fosters the rear, hatred, and irrationality that ISIS is striving for, and contributes to the difficulty of actually dealing with the situation.
As with Sarah Palin, I simply can not visualize him sitting down with world leaders in a global crisis meeting and contributing anything worthwhile.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Class response. :-)

Quoting 270. justmehouston:



My apologies, I was responding to someone that mentioned we should be selfless ...but since you are offended I will remove my post

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours
Quoting 261. LouisPasteur:



Would have been a selfless act if you hadn't felt the need to tell us that you did it, how much you spent, and what a hardship on you it was. Instead you used your act of kindness to troll for praise. Thumbs up for the charity, thumbs down for blowing your own horn.
txjac is one of the most caring people on here.You did not need to post that and bring negativity to this blog.Usually the people that are blasting others for announcing their kind acts aren't doing anything for society themselves.
284. MahFL
Quoting 201. VAstorms:



Good post. Our country is made up entirely of people who came here from a better life.


Actually most people came over to escape from religious persecution.
285. MahFL
Quoting 202. hydrus:

...Terrorists have already infiltrated to a dangerous level, and more needs to be done to stop it immediately...


Hmm are you sure about that, so far all we have had is a few lone wolf attacks, no co-ordinated suicide bombings have occurred in the USA ever. ( not counting 9/11 as they were planes ).
286. MahFL
Quoting 210. tampabaymatt:



In fairness, the media was initially reporting that one of the Paris attackers was a Syrian refugee.


He came in via Greece with the refugees to avoid detection using a false passport, he was not actually a refugee. it would be extremely hard to get into the USA with a false passport as a refugee.