WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I am in the Houston area as well and Channel 2 did mention the possible threat of Alex to the area, particularly around Matagorda Bay. They also explained the factors that are making it difficult for the models to agree. They were informative.
This is from StormW's blog...

"would look for a HURRICANE WATCH to be posted for those in the 5 day cone, probably sometime tomorrow"

This is what will get everybody's attention when this comes out
66 knts flight level winds
51 knts surface winds
Quoting DestinJeff:


sorry I should have explained. a lot of people discount the XTRP as "not a model" ... but I find it useful in the short-term to see if the models will hit the xtrp. in this case, very few of them appear they will.

so we have to wait and see how long the current fwd motion holds ... the longer it does so, the wider the gap between the models and xtrp. the larger the gap, the more indicative of flawed model solution (in my mind)



Ohhh I totally understand. ok. Is XTRP right or left of the models now? (Sorry, all my easy quick links are on old computer. I need to make a bunch of new ones :( )
506. IKE
Quoting StormW:
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE

STATISTICAL



DYNAMIC





Little shift to the right...
479:

Actually, look at the picture I just posted.

The overall circulation of Alex is about the same size as Typhoon Tip, maybe even bigger.

Admittedly, it has a long way to go to reach the intensity, but the gulf waters suggest it is possible.
Good morning!
Quoting tkeith:
During Katrina Murphy Oil had a spill of 750,000 gallonsit affected over 2,000 homes. 80% of those dont have people living in them today, even after remediation.


That is really what scares my about a hurricane and the oil spill... What happens to the structures that get 'oiled'?

Water is bad enough as it is.

Quoting TXnovice:
I am in the Houston area as well and Channel 2 did mention the possible threat of Alex to the area, particularly around Matagorda Bay. They also explained the factors that are making it difficult for the models to agree. They were informative.


Good to know, since I used to work there. I was going to all and give them a piece of my mind ;)

I must just be missing the right segments.
Quoting DestinJeff:


sorry I should have explained. a lot of people discount the XTRP as "not a model" ... but I find it useful in the short-term to see if the models will hit the xtrp. in this case, very few of them appear they will.

so we have to wait and see how long the current fwd motion holds ... the longer it does so, the wider the gap between the models and xtrp. the larger the gap, the more indicative of flawed model solution (in my mind)


But the XTRAP "is not a model" it just shows the extrapolation of the current movement. Almost never does it happen that a storm moves in the exact same motion over a long period of time. The steering currents as well as speed, storm strength and other factors steer the storm in a non-straight line.
Look at the winds they are getting now:

000
URNT15 KNHC 281329
AF306 0501A ALEX HDOB 30 20100628
132000 2015N 09130W 9253 00605 9914 220 195 139043 047 045 005 00
132030 2016N 09129W 9247 00613 9922 202 193 132055 057 048 008 00
132100 2017N 09128W 9250 00614 9927 200 188 133057 060 050 011 00
132130 2018N 09127W 9245 00623 9934 194 183 135061 062 051 011 00
132200 2019N 09126W 9253 00621 9941 190 178 132062 063 049 010 00
132230 2020N 09125W 9247 00631 9943 202 172 131062 062 047 005 00
132300 2021N 09123W 9250 00633 9946 205 169 132062 063 047 008 00
132330 2022N 09122W 9247 00638 9953 189 166 134065 066 045 009 00
132400 2023N 09121W 9250 00639 9955 202 163 136064 066 044 009 00
132430 2024N 09120W 9248 00645 9956 213 161 138061 062 043 004 00
132500 2025N 09119W 9250 00644 9959 213 161 138060 062 042 005 00
132530 2027N 09118W 9246 00653 9964 208 162 138063 065 042 003 00
132600 2028N 09117W 9251 00648 9966 206 163 140064 065 039 005 00
132630 2029N 09115W 9248 00654 9969 206 165 141064 065 040 001 00
132700 2030N 09114W 9248 00656 9971 209 168 140061 062 038 004 00
132730 2031N 09113W 9248 00658 9974 205 170 139062 062 039 002 00
132800 2032N 09112W 9242 00665 9975 207 172 140061 061 037 004 00
132830 2033N 09111W 9249 00660 9978 205 174 140060 061 036 004 00
132900 2034N 09110W 9254 00657 9980 203 175 141061 062 036 004 00
132930 2035N 09108W 9250 00664 9981 205 176 140060 060 035 005 00
$$
;

That and the vortex message data should bring Alex up to 60 mph by the 11AM advisory.. Track will probably shift very slightly north again.
Quoting StormW:


In line with my forecast.


Storm, your forecast is for it to go south of Corpus Christi but north of Brownsville? We're on the same boat here!
They are my favorite. They helped me not to go crazy through my first hurricane (Ike). I'm Canadian and have lived in the south (LA and TX) for 16 years, but have always avoided the storms. Channel 2 had great coverage through the storm. Channel 11 was trying, but their constant reference to the big donut (Ike) just made me hungry :)
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


But the XTRAP "is not a model" it just shows the extrapolation of the current movement. Almost never does it happen that a storm moves in the exact same motion over a long period of time. The steering currents as well as speed, storm strength and other factors steer the storm in a non-straight line.

Your comment is not incorrect, but you seem to have missed the 'short-term' part of his explanation.
519. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


is this when I am supposed to become enraged and defensive, perhaps use CAPS to make my POINT? then proceed to accuse you of some type of casting, with evidence being something you may or may not have posted last season sometime about some storm?



LOL.

78.6 at my house. Very cloudy outside.
28/1145 UTC 19.9N 91.7W T3.0/3.0
521. jpsb
Quoting TXnovice:
I am in the Houston area as well and Channel 2 did mention the possible threat of Alex to the area, particularly around Matagorda Bay. They also explained the factors that are making it difficult for the models to agree. They were informative.
I always worry when Matagorda Bay is the target, Carla, plus north creep seems common these days.
looks like the trough is winning...interesting
523. emtkz
Just curious here if anyone had any thought on what interaction tropical storm Alex in the Atlantic and Tropical storm Darby in the Pacific may have on each other. Guidance suggests that they both are headed towards each other.
Quoting SeALWx:

Your comment is not incorrect, but you seem to have missed the 'short-term' part of his explanation.


Now THAT doesnt surprise me, I am often out of the Loop, LMAO.
i got a bad feeling for tropical storm Alex maybe be a big hurricane next 48 hours.
Quoting IKE:


Never been used before on Dr. M's blog....

XTRP-CASTER!


well the XTRAP is always right...in reverse, that is...
Time: 13:21:00Z
Coordinates: 20.2833N 91.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 925.0 mb (~ 27.32 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 614 meters (~ 2,014 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.7 mb (~ 29.31 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 57 knots (From the SE at ~ 65.5 mph)
Air Temp: 20.0°C (~ 68.0°F)
Dew Pt: 18.8°C (~ 65.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 50 knots (~ 57.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
Is that an eye forming in the last few frames? Link
Note that Alex is farther east than Bret was

530. jpsb
Quoting StormW:


In line with my forecast.
Yup.
Quoting TXnovice:
They are my favorite. They helped me not to go crazy through my first hurricane (Ike). I'm Canadian and have lived in the south (LA and TX) for 16 years, but have always avoided the storms. Channel 2 had great coverage through the storm. Channel 11 was trying, but their constant reference to the big donut (Ike) just made me hungry :)


Ike chased us from Houston to the Hill Country; Channel 11 was streaming live over the web for about 5 days. It was awesome to watch their coverage & be able to keep up with what was going on at home!

Hopefully we won't have to deal with all that again!
520:

Yeah. T number of 3.0.

It's starting to ramp up now as more and more of the core gets back over water.

Once the trough passes, it is going to explode into completely epic proportions.

Coastal Flood Watch

Statement as of 3:16 AM CDT on June 28, 2010



... Coastal Flood Watch in effect through Wednesday evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect through Wednesday evening.

Strong southerly winds will persist today along with wave action
this will result in rises in tide levels of 2 to 3 feet above
normal. This will also occur during times of high tide Tuesday and
again on Wednesday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.
Quoting aquak9:


well the XTRAP is always right...in reverse, that is...


Remember the old sailors saying... the only safe water... is behind you.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Note that Alex is farther east than Bret was



Huh! Nice analog package you have there!
I think we will continue to see little bumps to the right until we are no longer throwing the GFS out with the bath water.


Quoting IKE:


Little shift to the right...
thanks for the updated models StormW!
your feeling is right alex will have no trouble gaining cat 3 strength in the next 48 hours with little wind shear ant ssts the way they are alex will be a force to recon with for the texas coast..
There seems to be 2 groups of models here. One group having Alex go west after landfall, and the other group north/north east. It is amazing how the NHC is tending its official forecast westword, discounting the HWRF and GFS models. I know it is an average, but it doesn't seem like they are incorporating those models at all. Anyone's educated opinion is welcome on this.
542. IKE
Quoting Patrap:

Coastal Flood Watch

Statement as of 3:16 AM CDT on June 28, 2010



... Coastal Flood Watch in effect through Wednesday evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect through Wednesday evening.

Strong southerly winds will persist today along with wave action
this will result in rises in tide levels of 2 to 3 feet above
normal. This will also occur during times of high tide Tuesday and
again on Wednesday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.


And more oil washing ashore.
Good morning. It looks like Alex doesn't want to leave Mexico! The coastline is beautiful, but I wonder if that is what is keeping him "under control" for now...
Alex will have more water to cover than Bret did

For everyone looking for the "direct access" route for Alex - remember that the storm is not a direct line, its round with lots of weather. If your within the cone, you should review preps -- don't panic, and watch for the forecast.

Nothing is worse than someone saying that the track was to xxx but it came in 50 miles north. That is also part of the track.

Max Mayfield always had a problem with putting a line in the center - the track is the entire cone, and can hit anywhere within that area.

Quoting TXnovice:
They are my favorite. They helped me not to go crazy through my first hurricane (Ike). I'm Canadian and have lived in the south (LA and TX) for 16 years, but have always avoided the storms. Channel 2 had great coverage through the storm. Channel 11 was trying, but their constant reference to the big donut (Ike) just made me hungry :)
Just got back from Calgary yesterday to TN. How do you like the humidity?LOL
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Now THAT doesnt surprise me, I am often out of the Loop, LMAO.

No Worries. I just didn't want that real-time model verification technique to be discounted for other readers.
540:

More likely the ENTIRE coast...
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
i got a bad feeling for tropical storm Alex maybe be a big hurricane next 48 hours.


Yes, the more north this system hangs, the worse it gets down the road during crunch time. Wait until this storm gets itself aways away from land, it could get ugly quick. If I lived on the TX coast, I would have everything loaded and ready to run on a moments notice. This is going to be a major hurricane
Both flight-level and SFMR info from the recon plane support 50kt at 11. Pressure isn't falling though, a combination of land interaction and the trough seems to be interfering a bit.
If that ull to alex's north keeps digging the environment to its north may not be to friendly hopefully preventing this from becoming a significant hurricane.
WTH is with this?:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUN 2010 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 19:56:14 N Lon : 91:44:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1002.3mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.1 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb

Center Temp : -41.3C Cloud Region Temp : -46.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.68 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 20:07:47 N Lon: 91:08:23 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

It's been doing that ever since it got off of land. Recon data supports a gradually strengthening system, SAB is raising T#'s, it's finally back over water and organizing, why is the CIMSS ADT weakening it with every update lol.
the cone is now north of Matagorda Bay?!
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI



tramp96, I'm from the Edmonton area. I could do without this heat and humidity. If Alex decides to head this way, maybe I should evacuate to Pigeon Lake, Alberta!
Good morning Pat
Quoting SamTeam:


Channel 2 & Channel 11 are both giving pretty good detail in Houston; they are informative but cautious


I don't watch channel 2. :) They lost me when I moved here and they had that ridiculous bank of TVs behind the anchors.
Levi? You here?
Quoting Cranica:
Both flight-level and SFMR info from the recon plane support 50kt at 11. Pressure isn't falling though, a combination of land interaction and the trough seems to be interfering a bit.


When was the last time you've seen a 989 mb 50 mph TS? The winds are responding to the pressure, the winds are rising while the pressure is not.
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Pat


Grumble..G'morning.

Mmmm,,phf..Java
Quoting Snowlover123:
Levi? You here?


It's 5:47 for Levi, let the guy sleep lol.
554:

That's the feeder band colliding with the trough, for anyone who doesn't realize.

Cleanup efforts won't be getting much done today...
Quoting DestinJeff:


thanks for the back-up. I think the blog in general has a sort of Pavlovian response to "xtrp" ... anytime it is mentioned, the response is "xtrp is not a model" . I tried mightly to thwart that response, and failed.

Oh no, not failed. I'm sure there are many people that now have an understanding about how they can see that 'stupid straight line model' as a valuable addition to model output graphics.
Morning gang... look like ol Alex is fighting with the ULL
With Alex I would only trust models out to about 3 days. That is the point where they get screwy and starts doing loops and backflips.

Quoting Waltanater:
There seems to be 2 groups of models here. One group having Alex go west after landfall, and the other group north/north east. It is amazing how the NHC is tending its official forecast westword, discounting the HWRF and GFS models. I know it is an average, but it doesn't seem like they are incorporating those models at all. Anyone's educated opinion is welcome on this.
Quoting angiest:


I don't watch channel 2. :) They lost me when I moved here and they had that ridiculous bank of TVs behind the anchors.


Ha ha that is long gone
Quoting hurricane23:
If that ull to alex's north keeps digging the environment to its north may not be to friendly hopefully preventing this from becoming a significant hurricane.

It looks like Alex has slowed down. Could he miss interacting with the ull alltogether? (hope NOT)
You might want to save some of that coffee. Looks like it might be a long week.
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI



Yes Pat got rolled out of bed this morning because of one of those "Thunder Storms".... It looks as if we will be getting rain off and on now untill Alex makes Landfall....

Taco :o)
Do not ignore the GFS. It is a very good model for storm motion once a storm is well developed. (It's not so good for forecasting development or strength.) XTRP can sometimes be used to see how well models are predicting things, but don't put much stock in it. It can be thrown off by wobbles, etc.
Quoting msgambler:
You might want to save some of that coffee. Looks like it might be a long week.


I have a sack of it from Juan Valdez hizzelf.
Thanks! I still think Alex is going to take everyone by surprise and hook NE at the last minute. We'll see though. These storms can sometimes be very unpredictable!
Quoting TXnovice:
tramp96, I'm from the Edmonton area. I could do without this heat and humidity. If Alex decides to head this way, maybe I should evacuate to Pigeon Lake, Alberta!
Geaux Flames
Quoting StormW:


He's probably asleep...he was up to like 4 am doing calculus.

Wow. That's a LOT of studying. Whoa.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


It's 5:47 for Levi, let the guy sleep lol.


Sorry... :o
Quoting muddertracker:

It looks like Alex has slowed down. Could he miss interacting with the ull alltogether? (hope NOT)


yeah I was just noticing that on the GOM Water Vapor loop... it looks like its definately slowing it down... I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to suppress it westward and maybe Southwestward....

Not moving much anyway: not good at all!!!
Where do you get the Google Earth file for models with intensity?
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:


yeah I was just noticing that on the GOM Water Vapor loop... it looks like its definately slowing it down... I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to suppress it westward and maybe Southwestward....

Not moving much anyway: not good at all!!!


or eastward since the ridge is weakening
582. WAHA
I think Alex just might be rapidly strengthening!
Quoting hurricane23:
If that ull to alex's north keeps digging the environment to its north may not be to friendly hopefully preventing this from becoming a significant hurricane.


I see that aswell.. I'd like to see what the NHC thinks at 11 am, last discussion they didn't mention a ULL having an effect on its environment in the future. NHC also peaks Alex at 110 mph, fairly close to Category 3 status.
Waltanater, I live in Panama City and I still remember another storm that did that trick. I discount nothing as impossible with these storms.

Also, hello all! I'm a newbie here but I've always been a weather junkie and now that I live in Florida I have a reason to be somewhat hyper-vigilant.
585. IKE
10-20 knots of NNW shear....

***Alright folks here is the latest info from local met in Houston...It's beginning to get serious for Texas****

Significant hurricane threat to the Texas coast

Preparations for the impact of a large and dangerous hurricane should begin along the lower and middle TX coast.


Discussion:

Alex moving over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche this morning. Aircraft was in the storm earlier and found the pressure at 991mb the same as last evening, but since then a massive explosion of thunderstorms has occurred over the center and it is likely the Alex is starting to intensify. Flight level winds of near 50kt were recorded or given the reduction factor about 50mph at the surface. Alex shows great banding features to the NE and SW of the system under a upper level high aloft. Outflow is increasing in all quadrant except the NW where a touch of wind shear is impacting the system. Other than that there is little to prevent intensification.


Track:

It all depends on the amount of ridging over TX and folks to be perfectly honest there is not that much. UKMET and ECMWF models remain the southern outlier with a north MX landfall while the GFS is the eastern outlier with a landfall near Palacios and the rest of the guidance falling in between. Appears the handling of the intensity and size of Alex may be the key in the track as the southern tracks keep him weaker and smaller and the northern track larger and stronger. Based on the intensity side of things…will favor the larger and stronger event given the very good organization already and near hurricane pressures this morning. On a typical day the amount of ridge differences in the models over TX by the middle to end of the week would be less than noticeable, and this is very concerning as there is just not much over the state to protect us from Alex getting pulled northward by the trough along the US east coast. NHC is along the southern edge of the guidance and will likely have to shift a little northward this morning possibly into south Texas.

Intensity:

There appears little to prevent intensification over the western Gulf of Mexico as all factors are go. Interestingly the hurricane models only bring Alex to a category 1 hurricane while SHIPS is a little more aggressive taking it toward a category 2. Given near ideal upper level conditions, good venting aloft, warm sea surface temperatures, and large envelope of moist air, intensification is likely. NHC brings Alex to just below category 3 intensity and this appears reasonable given the above mentioned factors.

The storm is also forecast to expand in size over the western Gulf with tropical storm force winds extending outward upwards of 200 miles from the center so Alex will become an above average size hurricane. As seen with Ike, Rita, and Katrina such storms are capable of large storm surges over a large area.


Impacts:

Tropical storm force conditions will impact most of S TX with squalls impacting the rest of the TX coast. Potentially excessive rainfall in many areas along and well to the NE of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge inundation is likely near and well NE of where the center crosses the coast (this will be better defined in the coming days as to what parts of the TX coast are impacted).

Long period swells will begin to reach the TX coast early Wednesday morning as the large circulation takes over the western Gulf. These swells will begin to run-up water levels along the coast with tides running 1-2 feet above normal by Wednesday afternoon possibly higher along the lower coast. Onset of storm surge flooding on the lower coast will be late Wednesday into early Thursday.


Confidence:

This remains a very low confidence forecast track and large errors can/may result at the longer time frames.

Residents along the entire TX coast should review their hurricane plans at this time.
Quoting Snowlover123:

Wow. That's a LOT of studying. Whoa.



Sorry... :o


Yeah it is a lot of studying, im glad I'm not at that point yet!
Quoting StormW:


AYE! Drinking plenty of it! Been on da horn with da Coast Guard pretty much this a.m. Gonna use my stuff in a 1400 telecon.


Cool..

I'll be loading or unloading my dishwasher round then
Orcasystems, you have mail!
526 aquak9 "well the XTRAP is always right...in reverse, that is.."

So XTRAP's an aftcaster?
Quoting Dakster:


That is really what scares my about a hurricane and the oil spill... What happens to the structures that get 'oiled'?

Water is bad enough as it is.



If you have personally been down that road before, then the answer is pretty simple. The oil will save you the can of gas when you decide to burn it down.
Quoting aspectre:
526 aquak9 "well the XTRAP is always right...in reverse, that is.."

So XTRAP's an aftcaster?
First laugh of the day..thank you!
ex INVEST 94L
MAYBE NEXT INVEST 95L
Quoting aspectre:
526 aquak9 "well the XTRAP is always right...in reverse, that is.."

So XTRAP's an aftcaster?


It's a straightcaster.
Quoting Caffinehog:
Do not ignore the GFS. It is a very good model for storm motion once a storm is well developed. (It's not so good for forecasting development or strength.) XTRP can sometimes be used to see how well models are predicting things, but don't put much stock in it. It can be thrown off by wobbles, etc.

That's what is great about living in this information age. The many differing points of data we have access to with just a type or click. However, the value of this data is not in it's availability, but in the thoughtful interpretation of it.
Quoting Patrap:


Grumble..G'morning.

Mmmm,,phf..Java

Morning Pat. If only the computer could dispense the coffee eh?
Welcome! I too am new to the blog this year. We are definitely in for a ride this season!
The storm is also forecast to expand in size over the western Gulf with tropical storm force winds extending outward upwards of 200 miles from the center so Alex will become an above average size hurricane. As seen with Ike, Rita, and Katrina such storms are capable of large storm surges over a large area.
This thing is almost a hurricane at flight level.
alex is not slowing down it still is resuming a northrtly component at 6mph..
Where do you get the KML file for models with intensity?
ok.. I am off for a bit. I need to get some cleaning done (always part of my hurricane readiness LOL). Thanks for all the good input. Be back in a bit to see what's up.
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Morning Pat. If only the computer could dispense the coffee eh?


Irish coffee would be nice.
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I always thought that these Met. classes have been WAY TOO serious with Calculus and stuff.


At one time I was a Meteorology Major at Texas A&M...you are NOT kidding. There was a ton of calculus and physics involved. Once I got past Calculus III and into Differential Equations, I could not handle anymore and changed majors, although my love for studying the weather never went away. :)
Quoting WAHA:
I think Alex just might be rapidly strengthening!


It's not rapid intensifying, It's loosing a lot of colder cloud tops, Usually when you have rapid or even intensifying, you'll see really cold cloud tops and high cumulus cloud bursting into the atmosphere with cirrus outflow. Pretty Ragged looking right now, Still has land interaction to its South & North East.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 13:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:16:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°08'N 91°38'W (20.1333N 91.6333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 75 miles (120 km) to the WNW (285°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 595m (1,952ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 318° at 35kts (From the NW at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (234°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 758m (2,487ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:23:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:23:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:21:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
GOOD ARC / SPIRAL BAND NE - SE
Good morning...

I see Alex is as happy as duck over water again!
Quoting cg2916:
Where do you get the KML file for models with intensity?


1-Raw Tropical Data
2-SHIPS Intensity Data
URNT12 KNHC 281353
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 28/13:16:50Z
B. 20 deg 08 min N
091 deg 38 min W
C. 925 mb 595 m
D. 33 kt
E. 231 deg 26 nm
F. 318 deg 35 kt
G. 234 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 989 mb
I. 22 C / 760 m
J. 24 C / 758 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0501A ALEX OB 10
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 13:23:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 13:23:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
GOOD ARC / SPIRAL BAND NE - SE
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WND 51 KTS NE QUAD 13:21:30 Z
Long time reader here (first time poster). Have enjoyed your posts and discussions on this board.

Is there a site that provides 5,7, or 10-day loops of the tropics? I can only find 2-day.
Significant hurricane threat to the Texas coast


Preparations for the impact of a large and dangerous hurricane should begin along the lower and middle TX coast.

Discussion:

Alex moving over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche this morning. Aircraft was in the storm earlier and found the pressure at 991mb the same as last evening, but since then a massive explosion of thunderstorms has occurred over the center and it is likely the Alex is starting to intensify. Flight level winds of near 50kt were recorded or given the reduction factor about 50mph at the surface. Alex shows great banding features to the NE and SW of the system under a upper level high aloft. Outflow is increasing in all quadrant except the NW where a touch of wind shear is impacting the system. Other than that there is little to prevent intensification.

Track:

It all depends on the amount of ridging over TX and folks to be perfectly honest there is not that much. UKMET and ECMWF models remain the southern outlier with a north MX landfall while the GFS is the eastern outlier with a landfall near Palacios and the rest of the guidance falling in between. Appears the handling of the intensity and size of Alex may be the key in the track as the southern tracks keep him weaker and smaller and the northern track larger and stronger. Based on the intensity side of things…will favor the larger and stronger event given the very good organization already and near hurricane pressures this morning. On a typical day the amount of ridge differences in the models over TX by the middle to end of the week would be less than noticeable, and this is very concerning as there is just not much over the state to protect us from Alex getting pulled northward by the trough along the US east coast. NHC is along the southern edge of the guidance and will likely have to shift a little northward this morning possibly into south Texas.

Intensity:

There appears little to prevent intensification over the western Gulf of Mexico as all factors are go. Interestingly the hurricane models only bring Alex to a category 1 hurricane while SHIPS is a little more aggressive taking it toward a category 2. Given near ideal upper level conditions, good venting aloft, warm sea surface temperatures, and large envelope of moist air, intensification is likely. NHC brings Alex to just below category 3 intensity and this appears reasonable given the above mentioned factors.

The storm is also forecast to expand in size over the western Gulf with tropical storm force winds extending outward upwards of 200 miles from the center so Alex will become an above average size hurricane. As seen with Ike, Rita, and Katrina such storms are capable of large storm surges over a large area.

Impacts:
Based on current NHC track:

Tropical storm force conditions will impact most of S TX with squalls impacting the rest of the TX coast. Potentially excessive rainfall in many areas along and well to the NE of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge inundation is likely near and well NE of where the center crosses the coast (this will be better defined in the coming days as to what parts of the TX coast are impacted).

Long period swells will begin to reach the TX coast early Wednesday morning as the large circulation takes over the western Gulf. These swells will begin to run-up water levels along the coast with tides running 1-2 feet above normal by Wednesday afternoon possibly higher along the lower coast. Onset of storm surge flooding on the lower coast will be late Wednesday into early Thursday.

Confidence:

This remains a very low confidence forecast track and large errors can/may result at the longer time frames.

Residents along the entire TX coast should review their hurricane plans at this time.
Good morning all. On the Eumetsat it looks like the Africanwave train is being pushed south. Is this where the ITCZ is set up or is their some other reason they are being pushed into S. America
I know this is VERY difficult to do, but would someone like to conjecture about the probably of a major impact about 30 miles north of Brownsville? I happen to be in Harlingen visiting my parents and am now trying to help them assess the situation and prepare. How likely is it we will need to head north to my house near Dallas in a day or two? Appreciate all the help you can give.

-Jamie
Off for a while today need to get a few things done and will be back late today or early evening..... All have a great day....

Taco :o)
Quoting Dropsonde:
URNT12 KNHC 281353
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 28/13:16:50Z
B. 20 deg 08 min N
091 deg 38 min W
C. 925 mb 595 m
D. 33 kt
E. 231 deg 26 nm
F. 318 deg 35 kt
G. 234 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 989 mb
I. 22 C / 760 m
J. 24 C / 758 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0501A ALEX OB 10
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 13:23:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 13:23:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
GOOD ARC / SPIRAL BAND NE - SE
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WND 51 KTS NE QUAD 13:21:30 Z


Almost a cane at flight level.


you can see how north it is moving in the latter part of the loop
621. hercj
Quoting Patrap:


Irish coffee would be nice.

Morning Pat. I successfully aviated to Houston last night and will leave shortly for our beloved Nations Capital, which by the way has the worst air traffic in the world.
If that is the center fix, Alex is definitely feeling a bit of shear, though it is obviously not enough to decouple him.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Significant hurricane threat to the Texas coast


Preparations for the impact of a large and dangerous hurricane should begin along the lower and middle TX coast.

Discussion:

Alex moving over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche this morning. Aircraft was in the storm earlier and found the pressure at 991mb the same as last evening, but since then a massive explosion of thunderstorms has occurred over the center and it is likely the Alex is starting to intensify. Flight level winds of near 50kt were recorded or given the reduction factor about 50mph at the surface. Alex shows great banding features to the NE and SW of the system under a upper level high aloft. Outflow is increasing in all quadrant except the NW where a touch of wind shear is impacting the system. Other than that there is little to prevent intensification.

Track:

It all depends on the amount of ridging over TX and folks to be perfectly honest there is not that much. UKMET and ECMWF models remain the southern outlier with a north MX landfall while the GFS is the eastern outlier with a landfall near Palacios and the rest of the guidance falling in between. Appears the handling of the intensity and size of Alex may be the key in the track as the southern tracks keep him weaker and smaller and the northern track larger and stronger. Based on the intensity side of things…will favor the larger and stronger event given the very good organization already and near hurricane pressures this morning. On a typical day the amount of ridge differences in the models over TX by the middle to end of the week would be less than noticeable, and this is very concerning as there is just not much over the state to protect us from Alex getting pulled northward by the trough along the US east coast. NHC is along the southern edge of the guidance and will likely have to shift a little northward this morning possibly into south Texas.

Intensity:

There appears little to prevent intensification over the western Gulf of Mexico as all factors are go. Interestingly the hurricane models only bring Alex to a category 1 hurricane while SHIPS is a little more aggressive taking it toward a category 2. Given near ideal upper level conditions, good venting aloft, warm sea surface temperatures, and large envelope of moist air, intensification is likely. NHC brings Alex to just below category 3 intensity and this appears reasonable given the above mentioned factors.

The storm is also forecast to expand in size over the western Gulf with tropical storm force winds extending outward upwards of 200 miles from the center so Alex will become an above average size hurricane. As seen with Ike, Rita, and Katrina such storms are capable of large storm surges over a large area.

Impacts:
Based on current NHC track:

Tropical storm force conditions will impact most of S TX with squalls impacting the rest of the TX coast. Potentially excessive rainfall in many areas along and well to the NE of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge inundation is likely near and well NE of where the center crosses the coast (this will be better defined in the coming days as to what parts of the TX coast are impacted).

Long period swells will begin to reach the TX coast early Wednesday morning as the large circulation takes over the western Gulf. These swells will begin to run-up water levels along the coast with tides running 1-2 feet above normal by Wednesday afternoon possibly higher along the lower coast. Onset of storm surge flooding on the lower coast will be late Wednesday into early Thursday.

Confidence:

This remains a very low confidence forecast track and large errors can/may result at the longer time frames.

Residents along the entire TX coast should review their hurricane plans at this time.


I believe that ground zero is slightly north for me than yesterday, between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.
Quoting cg2916:
Where do you get the KML file for models with intensity?


1-Raw Tropical Data
2-SHIPS Intensity Data
This will have people panicking... north of track on two fixes... I can see it now :(



AOI
Quoting FortBendTX:


At one time I was a Meteorology Major at Texas A&M...you are NOT kidding. There was a ton of calculus and physics involved. Once I got past Calculus III and into Differential Equations, I could not handle anymore and changed majors, although my love for studying the weather never went away. :)


That sounds exactly like how my meteorology aspirations went. However, I didn't get past Calc. III. Also, falling asleep in Physics while pledging didn't help either. :)
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°08'N 91°38'W (20.1333N 91.6333W)Has the center been at 91.6 for awhile. Will someone with a better perspective tell me this is an almost N forward motion. I'm probably wrong...help me out :)

WHAT IS THIS..
Alex upwelling that 200 ft depth isnt helping his cause at all this am as well
Quoting Orcasystems:
This will have people panicking... north of track on two fixes... I can see it now :(



AOI


It is with the consensus of the models predicting it making it landfall in Texas.
Quoting tkeith:
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°08'N 91°38'W (20.1333N 91.6333W)Has the center been at 91.6 for awhile. Will someone with a better perspective tell me this is an almost N forward motion. I'm probably wrong...help me out :)



yes, it is moving North of almost all the models
So if it is a stronger storm it will go more right, but if it goes more right it will have more time over warmer waters to be a stronger storm.

Ah, Houston, looks like we have a positive feedback problem here, ah, please advise.
Based on what we saw earlier, the storm currently has little or no westward component to it's motion, and has had "net" motion of almost due north over the past 8 to 12 hours.

Visible presentation is also improving considerably on the western side as several large, powerful feeder bands are beginning to wrap around from the west-central GOMEX.

Visible Sat

Like the other poster above, I don't understand the "weakening" flag given the actual data recorded combined with the satellite imagery.
Tomm you will see scrambling in TX, I think I'm going to get stocked up tonight
alex is continuing in a n direction and te last few frames it looks like it picking up a little faster..this will be a major factor to the upper teaxs coast is this countinues another 24-36 hours..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you can see how north it is moving in the latter part of the loop


I agree!!!
Quoting TeachOnTheEdge:
I know this is VERy difficult to do, but would someone like to conjecture about the probably if a major impact about 30 miles north of Brownsville. I happen to be in Harlingen visiting my parents and am now trying to help them assess the situation and prepare. How likely is it we will need to head north to my house near Dallas in a day or two? Appreciate all the help you can give.

-Jamie


For a Cat 1 hardly, If it turns into a major which is not in the forcast, I would head inland or to Dallas, It also depends on how far are you from the coast. If your 5 miles or more from the coast and in higher elevation and sturdy wood or brick house should be just fine, might lose power for awhile though.

If it's a cat 2 or above might want to think about leaving the area in the eyewall path.
Quoting hurricane23:
This thing is almost a hurricane at flight level.


Good Morning Adrian! Hey bud look at the GFDL model it developes that wave coming off Africa and moves it just E of PR moving wnw. Very Interesting down the road. Guys Bonnie maybe in the near future and I'm not liking the set up of the Bermuda High next week. Oh My!

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv925_anim.html
Quoting guygee:
So if it is a stronger storm it will go more right, but if it goes more right it will have more time over warmer waters to be a stronger storm.

Ah, Houston, looks like we have a positive feedback problem here, ah, please advise.


No guidance takes ALEX to the Right of the present guidance.
Quoting hurrkat05:
alex is continuing in a n direction and te last few frames it looks like it picking up a little faster..this will be a major factor to the upper teaxs coast is this countinues another 24-36 hours..


So the ECMWF was wrong. Does anyone know when he 12Z of the ECMWF comes out?
641. jpsb
Quoting RitaEvac:
As seen with Ike, Rita, and Katrina such storms are capable of large storm surges over a large area.
Hmmm, guess I'll fill up the truck today and top off my reserve. The folks running local gas stations tend to close early since they are not used to hurricanes and get scared easily. Sure hope I do not have to move my three tractors, that will be a pain in the butt to do! Then I'll have to board up my beer joint and house, damn damn damn, go west Alex go west!
642. IKE
Looking a little ragged...sorry it's off-centered....


Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
WHAT IS THIS..

blog spam?
Quoting Snowlover123:


So the ECMWF was wrong. Does anyone know when he 12Z of the ECMWF comes out?


starts around 2 and is done around 3 pm
Looking at model performance on Alex..the 3 BAM models followed by cmc & gfs (AEMN) are the overall leaders..they all aim at TX.
Quoting Snowlover123:


So the ECMWF was wrong. Does anyone know when he 12Z of the ECMWF comes out?


Well it starts running at 8 EDT, I think we'll be able to see the run starting at around 11:30
Quoting IKE:
Looking a little ragged...sorry it's off-centered....




It is still interacting with land, keep that in mind.
Good morning all! Who thinks what? Lol...
Quoting NewYork4Life:


That sounds exactly like how my meteorology aspirations went. However, I didn't get past Calc. III. Also, falling asleep in Physics while pledging didn't help either. :)
So they made you actually learn how to do all of the math on paper that the computers do for you once you become a met? Just curious.
Quoting Patrap:


No guidance takes ALEX to the Right of the present guidance.
Hallelujah and good day, kind sir!
Quoting RitaEvac:
The storm is also forecast to expand in size over the western Gulf with tropical storm force winds extending outward upwards of 200 miles from the center so Alex will become an above average size hurricane. As seen with Ike, Rita, and Katrina such storms are capable of large storm surges over a large area.


Those storms had much more water to work with and came from different directions. But I have not doubt it has the potential to be very large and powerful system, hight Cat 2 or even low Cat 3. Because of its proximity to land, this sometimes inhibits the expansion. If will be interesting to see how big it gets. Wind field is quite small now.
IKE--

ya I agree it does look ragged...

Between the land and the trof... it pretty messed up...

May be forming a tighter inner core tho
Don't be surprised to see a watch go up for Brownsville next advisory.
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



I dont think the ragged appearance was land, I think it's the near 20 knots of NW-NNWerly shear, and the ULL is getting closer.
Alex would like to apologize for not looking absolutely perfect like he has the last few days

*rolls eyes*
658. 7544
hey jeff got a ? for ya if you notice the out flow from alex to the west of fla is nudging ne will the trof push not alex but the convection from there more ne over fla or will that conv just fizzle out thanks
Quoting Patrap:


No guidance takes ALEX to the Right of the present guidance.


Funny Patrap... By definition that would be impossible...
660. jpsb
Quoting FortBendTX:


Once I got past Calculus III and into Differential Equations, I could not handle anymore and changed majors, although my love for studying the weather never went away. :)
Yeah Diffy Q is not easy, only time I ever got a B in a math class, Diffy Q separates the men from the boys in math. I got thru it, did not really understand it but I could solve the equations most of the time. Diffy Q also ended my "carreer" in math. Now Calculus was easy and fun! I liked that.
Quoting muddertracker:
So they made you actually learn how to do all of the math on paper that the computers do for you once you become a met? Just curious.

Yes, real mets know how to show their work.
Paints the met degree in a whole new light, doesn't it?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you can see how north it is moving in the latter part of the loop


yes you can, odd.
Quoting Dakster:


Funny Patrap... By definition that would be impossible...


Seems quotable to some though.
Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all! Who thinks what? Lol...


Rough weather for TX?
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Thanks for the visuals Patrap. I just logged in and kept reading the word "North" a lot.
Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all! Who thinks what? Lol...
mornin :)

well let's see...Ike thinks it looks a little ragged, Storm thinks it's tracking as expected, Pat thinks he needs another cup of coffee and I think when Levi wakes up his eyes are gonna pretty red (he was up kinda late)...lol
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Ah, models continue to trek to the East. I think everyone can agree that we can discard the model on the bottom of the forecast guidance for the dynamical models.
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Wow the official forecast is at the very top of the intensity forecasts. The general consensus is for this thing to begin gradually weakening as soon as today? Expect the 11AM advisory to only show an 80mph system or so opposed to 110 mph.
I bet that kid from Brownsville that's been dying for a hurricane is about to wet his pants. I wonder if his parents will make him evacuate. That'd be a cherry on one very bittersweet cake.
Quoting Snowlover123:


Ah, models continue to trek to the East. I think everyone can agree that we can discard the model on the bottom of the forecast guidance for the dynamical models.


Tracks trend eastward, intensity trends downward.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
IKE--

ya I agree it does look ragged...

Between the land and the trof... it pretty messed up...

May be forming a tighter inner core tho

About 2/3 rds of Alex is over land, or being affected by land at the moment. As soon as Alex moves further into the GOM it should intensify and re-organize gradually over the next 4 days.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Tracks trend eastward, intensity trends downward.


You got that right.
Quoting SeALWx:

Yes, real mets know how to show their work.
Paints the met degree in a whole new light, doesn't it?
For sure. Math is the reason I double majored in Brit Lit and Com...lol
NEW BLOG!!!
New Blog
Quoting 7544:
hey jeff got a ? for ya if you notice the out flow from alex to the west of fla is nudging ne will the trof push not alex but the convection from there more ne over fla or will that conv just fizzle out thanks


That convection will start moving on Tuesday especially wednesday. Wed thru Friday looks very rainy across C and N FL as Alex's moisture will combine with the trough moving in. Today just an increase in afternoon thunderstorms from past days. New Symrna Beach has not had rain for now 21 days straight. This is unheard of for June. East Coast of FL has been shafted in the rain department the last few weeks.
alex is most certainly being influenced by the deep trough right now and still is moving due north about 8 mph..if this continues for the next 36 hours the track will be shifted north about 200 miles and it becomes a serious situation for the upper texas coast and a lesser threat for the lower texas coast..all interest along the upper texas coast should not let there guard down and be ready to take action if a hurricane watch is issued..the high is weakening now the trough seems to be winning out..
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Wow the official forecast is at the very top of the intensity forecasts. The general consensus is for this thing to begin gradually weakening as soon as today? Expect the 11AM advisory to only show an 80mph system or so opposed to 110 mph.
HUH?
Quoting RCThunder:
How much has Alex moved in in the past 6 hours?


Since last night's (23:45Z 27th) HH fix just off the coast until the HH fix at 13:15Z today (28th, one hour ago), Alex moved 79 miles on a heading of 331. That works out to something like 5.4 mph.

It's now 70 miles from the nearest coastline, so it should be hitting much deeper 26 degree isotherms soon.
Thanks StormW... :)
Sorry for asking this if it has already been answered, but I was disconnected from the world for several days while in Matagorda. All I could watch for updates was TWC, and gave up doing so in frustration after just a couple of tropical update segments.

Do the current model runs include the most recent G IV data, or is it incorporated in an upcoming set of model runs and if so what time will those runs be out?

Thanks....
The remnants of ex94l that combined with that ULL has moved much further west than it was forecasted. That high was supposed to recurve this system and push Alex west, neither of which is happening.

Anyone else notice the modest amount of convection the ULL at 70 degrees is generating? A bit more than a usual ULL, they don't usually ever work themselves down to the surface but it has combined with a tropical wave and it is not unheard of.
666... That about sums it up! And I gotta say, not real shocked about any of it.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


starts around 2 and is done around 3 pm


Isn't it the 18z that comes out at 2pm? I thought the 12z was at 8am?
NEW BLOG!!!
688. 7544
thanks jeff yeap that ull looks strong just east of fla looks like its trying to work its way down to the surface as it moves west so could it transition in time thats the way / sometimes they do .
689. jpsb
Quoting SeALWx:

Yes, real mets know how to show their work.
Paints the met degree in a whole new light, doesn't it?
Back in my day a Bachelor of Science degree require math thru DQ, plus some linear algebra. Linear Algebra is another fun math subject (once you write a little program to reduce the matrixes).
690. jpsb
Quoting StormW:


Well, kinda...but a hurricane doesn't care if ya know Calculus, differential equations, E=Mc2 or what.

While a lot of folks are busy figuring out the equations...I'm busy forecasting.
I am having a hard time figuring out where one would use the Calculus in making a forecast. No doubt Calculus is used in met theories and proofs since both would be based on fluid dynamics. But I'd think forecasts would be more numerical analisses and getting an accurate mental picture of just what the atmosphere is doing.
Quoting btwntx08:

ummm kid what kid im 20 u _____ and im not evacuating and i wasnt freakin wanting the storm so u better keep ur mouth shut


I don't think he meant you. It was one of the wishcaster from a few weeks ago. Be Nice, Play Kind
NEW BLOG!!!

Not pleasant weather for the cleanup folks. At least we're getting some rain here in SoFla and a break from the heat.
Quoting StormW:


Well, kinda...but a hurricane doesn't care if ya know Calculus, differential equations, E=Mc2 or what.

While a lot of folks are busy figuring out the equations...I'm busy forecasting.



That might be one of the most intelligent statements Ive seen, I'm so dang sick of the school system and its worship of education.

There is so much unnecessary crap needed for a lot of degrees, and meteorology seems like it has one of the biggest unnecessary loads I've ever seen.

Man I love weather, but the schooling I'm having to go through to have it as my profession is down right absurd!
Good morning all. Alex is not having a good morning. Seems that its' collective efforts to reorganize is being undone for the time being. I see two problems for Alex at the current time. Most of the convection is still over the Yucatan. Alex is still drawing energy from the land based convection. Until it can find a away to develop that convection over the balance of the storm, it will continue to dawdle and befuddle everyone. The reason I see for the lack of convection over the water seems to be the strength of the upper ridge between the trough and Alex. Not only is this ridge controlling direction, but it also seems to be capping the convection over water. NWS discussion out of Austin/San Antonio is also reporting that the upper ridge is not moving much at this time. This raises an important question, will the trough wash out before it can impact Alex. At this time, I do not see any significant reason to track Alex beyond the BOC for the next 6 - 12 hours.
Quoting Jedkins01:



That might be one of the most intelligent statements Ive seen, I'm so dang sick of the school system and its worship of education.

There is so much unnecessary crap needed for a lot of degrees, and meteorology seems like it has one of the biggest unnecessary loads I've ever seen.

Man I love weather, but the schooling I'm having to go through to have it as my profession is down right absurd!


You're definitely from south of The Mason-Dixon line. All Hail The Ignorant and Uninformed and Unschooled !!! Let Mediocrity Reign Supreme !!! Geeeeeez.
When Alex finishes consolidating it will be a monster.