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Late season Atlantic tropical storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:50 PM GMT on November 06, 2006

There is currently no tropical activity of note in the Atlantic, nor do the models predict there will be any over the next six days. Wind shear over most of the tropical Atlantic is high and is expected to remain so for at least the next two weeks, which is typical for November in an El Nino year. However, we have to watch the Western Caribbean later this week, as the NOGAPS model predicts that wind shear may drop enough to support a tropical disturbance that could bring heavy rains to the region.

What are the odds of getting a tropical storm between now and April in the Atlantic? Well, if the past is any indication (Figure 1), we should expect no further activity in the Atlantic. Since 1950, when El Nino conditions have existed in the November-January period, as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, only 37% of those years have seen a late season tropical storm. There have been an average of 2.9 days per year when a named storm has been present in the Atlantic during those years. In La Nina years, late season tropical storm activity is 60% higher--about 5 named storm days per year. This year, we are experiencing a moderate El Nino (SSTs at least 1 degree above normal in the Equatorial region off the Pacific coast of South America). Late season Atlantic tropical storms have occurred in only 3 of 11 (27%) years with a moderate or strong El Nino.


Figure 1. Number of days per year that a named storm was present in the Atlantic during November-April. Years marked with a red "E" were El Nino years. Note that it is common to have zero late season tropical storms during El Nino years. It is interesting to note that there appears to be an increase in late season storms in the Atlantic in recent years. However, as I've discussed in a previous blog, this increase has not been seen in the Pacific Ocean.

My next update will be Wednesday, unless there's new tropical activity to talk about.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wohooo - season's over before it got started - what a relief for this year. Now if we can just get through November without any tornadoes we will have done something.
Let's get through these last three weeks!!!
WOOHOO!!!
Thanks Dr. Masters. Let's see if the NOGAPS is another false alarm, or if it becomes something we have to watch.
Thank you for putting this year's late season in perspective Dr. Masters.
hello
You want hot weather come here... the predicted high today was only 91 and it hit 99 earlyer that is not a mistake. I think here its the warmest in the nation...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KCAWHITT3
hi guys:0)
hi chaser
I would also like to note I have never seen are humidity hit under 9% and right know it is 7%. Everything I touch I have got shocked.
Been rough Hour here...Link
Plenty of Warnings last Hour.Link
Rain linkie view.Link
Pat, the weather is starting to arrive here now.
Rain..my exit..but clearing coming from the west Link
Hey crab,,was nasty line..
Yeppers it is a nasty one alright
Heres the Radar sandcrab..nasty by yaLink
We been having rain on and off all day its been drawing the moisture from the gulf
Some of these have Shear Markers according to the Doppler here on CBS local.Link
No active warnings for nowLink
The backside has a real quick clearing..heres my Exit now...rain just bout outta hereLink
I had a conference call with Slidell weather about 3 and passed the word out to all the municipalities
Butthead hit my Saturn Last Friday.With me & Teresa in it..I block from Trailer.This one ran red light ..crinked my R front end..Headlight assembly..and Hood.But this one Insured.Progressive.Went to Chiropractor today & Friday,Still sore though.
man your not having any luck with cars lately
That was good heads up.Lotsa shear markers here when it hit,Was on road and was one BAD looking low cloud deck as it rolled in.The Heads up definately a Good call with this one.
The Saturn Rolls on though.That Yukon that hit JR & Teresa was UNinsured.This Guy got 2 tickets..Blew out his tire and needed a tow.He had no spare in a 2003 Gran Marquis..go figure.But Had Cop behind me.I was turning left with arrow,green..he was coming from oppisite direction..Ran light making right turn..and Blamo!..LOL..Was sudden.Me cursing..Teresa screaming.Then I said ..OKAy were Okay.Lets get out..Get out and Cop was right behind me.Must b living right..LOL
Getting a hard rain with wind as we chat
Well just glad you and the wife are ok.
Might get knocked off the lightning is getting a little strong.
Thanx we fine.Heres a look at the next lil wave coming at ya..Below the Chandeliers..heading your way.That looks nasty..Link
Tornado warning till 5:30
Heres the Warning..Take cover Immediately...Thats the one I mentionedLink
10 miles south west of me moving northeast .lol
I am in Vancleave
That cell has good Push to it ...LinkRemember Wunderground radars Lag by 2-3 Minutes..just a note.
Slidell just called on the cell and sees rotation in it.
Check out this Sunset..the clearings here..Link
Ill stay Muted here to after the event...Will check back at 6pm..Local
Just activated the ham weather spotters
Major rain and straight line winds
Just got a 36 mph gust on the Davis home station
Power threatening to go out
Severe rain
That Bow Echo line right on top of You..Hang tight 10 more..itll be passed...Heres the view nowLink
No reports of ant damage anywere yet got Radio on no reports from SO
Turned on my infared outside cameras can see whats happening.lol
Heres a Link I found sandcrabLink
Its letting up a bit now just heavy rain
Think my rain gauge must be messed up it shows 4.18 for the day I dont think thats right.
map

Think this will dissipate before it gets to east central Al?
Was wild & wooly Monday Squall line.Just to keep us Honest..
I think this Line Has good chance to Make it a ways more east before weakening..
I dont think so auburn, it has a lot of energy in it.
LOl your right Pat. I am hearing a lot of cars off the road
I live right where the bottom of the Y is in the word "Montgomery"
You will get some rain auburn but due to the evening cooling I dont know how severe the weather will be but I would pay attention to the local weather service.
Good advice crab...and I will do that
Getting more reports of cars off the road I-10 down to about 20 MPH
Last warning was at 4:59 cst..for Jackson County ,Miss..none since..so Hopefully it will calm some..
Auburn its not a wide front but it has a punch to it so keep your heads up.
Pat it has exspired but lots of reports of flash flooding. Rain gauge might be rite.lol
Im feeling like we got around 2" here..was rough going driving earlier..in daylight.Musta been spookie on I-10...at night
I dont really know how to read these maps but it seems to be intensifying...and the temp here has went up 6 in the past hour or so and seems to be still on the rise
we had a good rain around 9am this morning as well so 4" might be right.
Auburn stay tuned to your local weather service they will keep you abreast of what is approaching.
Heres the Montgomery Radar...Link
ok..back to lurking and learning mode...Thanks
Auburn if you have cable turn over to the weather channel they should have local updates.
Thanks pat
Auburn look at the link Patrap posted it shows it approaching
2 reports of trees down in the southern area of the county
hi all
Your welcome..Im out to make da din-din..They Growling at me.C yall later
Is that a front
I have that link on my browser now...Thanks
Mid Level Cut-Off low moving across NGOMEX. If any severe weather breaks out tonite it will be right along the coast where the instability is the highest. Mobile towards Pensacola.
yes 03
Powerlines reported down in the same region as the trees. Might have had something in that area.
weatherguy, Flash flood warnings out for central MS so it is not just the coast.
it is around houston
Yes heavy rain widespread. I meant the severe weather. Tornados especially.
weatherguy, I dont know thats a nasty looking squall line all the way through the state.
it looks bad for pat
Warm moist air is confined to right along the coast. Warm sector has had a hard time penatrating Northward because of strong surface ridge over the Eastern U.S.. You can see the East winds still at Pensacola. Heavy rains and gusty winds with this line, but if any tornadic cells pop up they will right along the Gulf coast.
Have you guys seen the 18z GFS. Its a pretty far forecast (14 days) but shows a storm moving east across the Carribean. Another Lenny? Link
cane addict come to my blog
89. mr0t
Quick question..

In the NWS forecasts, when they give a time as '02z' or '06z', etc., what does that mean? Does the number refer to 2 hours after the forecast is given, 6 hours after, etc? Or does it refer to some fixed time zone? I'm trying to figure out their forecast and getting confused on that detail. Thanks in advance.
Thanks for the exsplanation Weatherguy
mr0t the Z is GMT which is 5 hours later than EST. 18Z would be 1300 or 1:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
mr0t, if you live in eastern time in the US, then the "z" time is either 4 or 5 hours after eastern time. Right now its around 12:22. The 18z came out at around 6:00 eastern. The 00z comes out at around midnight eastern. 06z - 6:00am. 12z - noon.

I agree it is confusing, because the 18z considers when the model began running, not when it comes out.
CaneAddict17 that is an odd path but the system is not very powerful ... maybe only a depression.
GMT is Greenwich Mean Time, the time in Greenwich, England. The military uses this time and calls it Zulu, hence the "Z".
95. mr0t
Thanks LowerCal!
YW Crab, anytime.
today's storm reports, including 1 tordado
Well we have had one confirmed tornado very small and only destroyed a shed and fence. No injuries with many trees down (most weekened from Katrina) some power lines down and isolated power outages. A lot of local street flooding but all is draining well now and should be back to normal in the next couple of hours.
Good evening,

Iam not sure if its been posted yet but here is the monthly tropical weather summary for october.Very minimal activity...

NHC SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
I wonder what they will say in the November summary? This?

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI DEC 1 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

For the East Pacific, I have a good idea that there will be several storms mentioned (see some of the recent model runs).
Afternoon STL
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TIL JUNE 07....
23 can we make it June 07 2012? lol
Cyclone - Can you take you tunnels to your blog? Again, if anybody is interested, they will come.
The discussion for 2:05 PM PST

...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW PRES
CENTER 1009 MB FOLLOWS IT CLOSELY AND THESE TWO FEATURES LIKELY
WILL MERGE OVER NEXT 24-36 HRS. BAND OF CONVECTION SPREADS
ALONG ITCZ NEAR WAVE AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN NOTED
NEAR 10N100W. GFS...NOGAPS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AGREE OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPMENT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT ON N SEMICIRCLE INCREASING
WIND AND SEAS WITHIN 90 NM IN EARLY STAGES AND EXPANDING BY 48
HRS TO OVER 180 NM.
...
FURTHER E...MOISTURE WITHIN ITCZ SURROUNDS 1009 MB LOW PRES
MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCES CONVECTION AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
106W HAS LIFTING MECHANISM TO COMPLETE CYCLE.

$$
WALLY BARNES

and the 4:00 PM PST outlook

...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST MON NOV 6 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hey sandcrab39565! If this strong el nino persists longer then expected the 07 may also be very quiet.In my opinion i think it will not persist to long into 07 and we will probably end up with neutral conditions across the atlantic basin.
23 I retire in 2011 so I will take all the help I can get.lol
Tuesday coming.Need to read the amendments here.Its like a new language,,LOL
Anybody have any predictions as to what next year will be like? That is, more or less active or near normal (normal in terms of the past decade, not long-term).

If these researchers are correct, El Nino could last longer than currently expected, which is through April-June.
Be back in a few phone ringing a lot again.
The Twister sounds like an F0-F1 sandcrab.No injuries I hope.
Relentless windshear was present in most parts of the atlantic basin during this hurricane season.
Cyclonebusterswow exit under my FEMA trailer..leads to Arizona..then Area 51..S-4 Area.
Hopefully those perdictions come to fruition.
Dont click on the tunnel pic..its a wormwhole sent to Me By Stephen Hawkins!..LOL!
and definately dont click on it twice!.
That was a nice lil storm we got here in MS
We could just turn the thermostat down cyclonebuster..But its in France.
Yes OSShark..was good soaker for sure.
France..A Country of Longevity in Europe.The Thermostat is run by a secret French Clan of CAtholic ,Muslim decent.They control the Populated areas weather..But not the Polar regions.The Norwegians and Pleidians control those areas.
Any info on where if any twister touched down. I was driving from the Grand in Biloxi to Ocean Springs and couldn't see well enough to make out any funnels, but there were some crazy winds.
Heres their Main Viewer...yuo
Coast cams ....Link
Gulfport & Ocean Springs
Microburst & straight line winds and a few F0-F1 twister...was nasty squall line.
Cyclone..Ill take a Bottle of Old Spice for Xmas.It smells nifty.
Wow, It sure wasn't fun driving in my civic!
Microburst localised like this can bring an Airliner down..and trees..and scuttle cars.old
Microburst can ruin a day..fast for the best pilot..or driver.Or weakened structures.
Come to New Orleans and see the real Pumping Tunnels at work cyclonebuster.They move millions of Gallons of water like in tonights deluge.Not even street flooding.Pumps are reality.
Pumps Trump Tunnels.How does one remove 50Billions gallons of Floodwaters?..Pumps. Pumps trump..LOL
Wow, I was getting blown around pretty good, nothing like that, then the EAS came on the radio.
Pumping staion down the street from Me...tyu
Heres the Pumps that have that capacity Cyclonebuster...an ariel of same pic belowt
Another way thunderstorms can generate high winds (sustained Cat 2+ winds in some cases). Here are some radar shots of them (also called derechos).
Heres the report of The damage we sustained to our system..its encrptyed but disregard the prompts.Its just for you cyclonebuster.Enjoy this data..cause many here dont even know it exist.Link
Ok back update to damage reports. Just additional tree damage thats all but seems to be getting more wide spread. The only injuries are from poor drivers.lol
Pat that link gave me a major do not open Macaffee slap.
Thats okay sandcrab..old prompt they never remove..Heres a Link to How we told the Corps of Engineeers..Pick up the pace..or we'll do it..LOLLink
We Build everything from North Sea rigs here ..to SHuttle External Fuel Tanks..seens lotsa Big Impellers..LOL
We fired the COE and did our work through the PA process with FEMA and actually saved money.lol
39564 here and I drove around but didn't see any damage
Pat we got a better job and less residual or colladeral damage as well.
Largest stainless full impeller..ever made..j
Well Shark its scattered and was being cleared as it happened.
I still want to send FEMA a Bill..but I havent tallied it up yet..LOL
LOL Pat I know I would like to send them one for loss of sleep and weight but the "Safford Act" does not apply.
Can we kick any relatives of that Stafford act in the Butt to Feel better though?
Shark I assume you are in OS
LOL Pat the only Butt we can kick is our own for thinking that they will be here fast.lol
cyclone, I believe that this is what you want?



Link
No cyclone..thats an impeller designed to FLY....
Yup Sand. Moved here in may 2005 from CA. Just a little more interesting weather down here.
Ill be In Spokane sipping a Margarita before thatll ever Happen again..LOL
Thats the weather here..year round..always a twist here & there.Winter could be interesting this year too.
LOL Shark well welcome it does get interesting and the best part is if you dont like it today just wait it will change.
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 8:37 PM CST on November 06, 2006. (hide)
Largest diesel in the world!! Truly Massive!

Link

So your tunnels will use diesel engines? I thought they used, uh, nothing to run (except for incorrectly applied principles).
Later all gonna watch the game. Wish all a good nite.
Game..Wow.I forgot..later too.
I cannot tell you how great it was this year not to have to evacuate or shutter up. Hope we can repeat next year!!

Florida Keys Fishing
Wind shear:



50-65+ kts
50-65+ kts= No worries in the atlantic basin til june 07.
better hope that shear remains strong, caribbean is definitely pumping out the ingredients for a storm
Evening all.

Anyone have an update on the current El Nino? Strenthening still? Interested to see what the weekly update has to say. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks and have a good one
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW PRES
CENTER 1009 MB FOLLOWS IT CLOSELY AND THESE TWO FEATURES LIKELY
WILL MERGE OVER NEXT 24-36 HRS. BAND OF CONVECTION SPREADS
ALONG ITCZ NEAR WAVE AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN NOTED
NEAR 10N100W. GFS...NOGAPS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AGREE OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPMENT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT ON N SEMICIRCLE INCREASING
WIND AND SEAS WITHIN 90 NM IN EARLY STAGES AND EXPANDING BY 48
HRS TO OVER 180 NM.
...
...MOISTURE WITHIN ITCZ SURROUNDS 1009 MB LOW PRES
MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCES CONVECTION AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
106W HAS LIFTING MECHANISM TO COMPLETE CYCLE.

and

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST MON NOV 6 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.



loop
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC ...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
...
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N102W. SOME CLOUD BANDING IS N
OF CENTER. DEVELOPMENT IF ANY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W.
I got wet this morning... I knew it was going to happen though, my girl goes to LSU, and I live in Georgia so she tells me what her weather is like on one day, and thats the weather I get the next.
good morning all, btw
Aint it foggy outside?..all the planes ..there all...grounded..
94E is up now i am going back to bed bye
I smell turkey and Pumpkin Pie...gravy too.
TUESDAY PHYSICS QUESTION OF THE DAY
A SLINKY is suspended from one end and released from rest. Q: What will happen when the SLINKY is released:

(a) The bottom end will begin to accelerate upward as the entire SLINKY collapses...
(b) The bottom end will begin to accelerate downward as the entire SLINKY collapses...
(c) The bottom end will remain instantaneously at rest as the SLINKY collapses....

ANSWER IS "C"
Gmorning everyone.

Gatorgrrrl- There really is a problem with the wording of the correct answer. Try substituting "as" with "until" in the correct answer. lol.
Im tired of the Quizjk
The answer should be easy if you have ever played with a Slinky before and remember what happens when you drop it as shown above.
Dear music....someone already made that suggestion, but I stand by my problem....don't want to make it too easy now do I?
Weve come to slinkies.."sigh"...LoL
Slinky..its such a wonderful toy..Link
Posted By: Gatorgrrrl at 4:25 PM GMT on November 07, 2006.

don't want to make it too easy now do I?

Sorry.. I hope I didn't make it too easy. Nice question. Never knew I was studing physics when Santa gave me one for Christmas. lol.
< looking for Rubiks Cube to drop to see what happens.
< broke his rubiks cube
Gone to store for a slinky. have a nice day.
Cyclonebuster

I give you a ton of credit for thinking outside the box and for sticking with your ideas, however, the tunnel idea while interesting seems to be a waste of time. For starters they already have neat and workable methods to produce electric from ocean currents and wave action. There is no need for the tunnels in that regard.

From the stand point of weather control - its humorous to think that we could build enough tunnels in key areas to actually have an effect on large areas of weather. Besides that who the heck wants some idiot messing around with something as important as sea temps. No one has any clue as to what would happen if the Atlantic ocean heat transfer conveyor belt (known as the gulfstream) was tampered with ... or the effects of mixing colder bottom water with surface water over large areas. You may not care about having the cold water staying down deep but I bet a whole ecosystem down in the depths would prefer that you drop the idea.

But hey - I agree that we need to prevent global warming so Im glad you are thinking about it!
Vote
Vote on the issues..and enjoy the weather!
hellooooooo do you see my post
Upload
1 2 3 you see my post
Pat.... you are tired of the Quiz? I gave everyone last week off. Mmmm...if you all don't want the quiz.....let me know and I will stop.
Up again
bump
Well here we are
about controlling weather check out project haarp scary stuff and look for the article about chemtrails also very interesting stuff you can find the news episode on utube the governemnt already has projects that really work! scarry crap!!
Im delighted to see the Maintenance over.
Love the quiz..Gator..just like most.
Cyclonebuster

I entirely agree regarding your comments regarding using oil for our energy needs, however, if the tunnels really do work then you have to admit that they present enough of a change in sea temps to make a difference and personally I don't think anyone out there knows enough to state that said change would not adversely effect another part of the eco-system balance ( which is so delicate that even small changes can cause emmense disruption)

Interesting article this summer about how slightly warmer water nearshore of N.CA was causing the food chain to break down...warmer sea temps due to abnormal wind patterns meant less plankton which like cooler water...less plankton meant less food for small fish .. less small fish meant less food for bigger fish and so on.

When you have put entire puzzle together .. and I mean the entire puzzle regarding the possible full effects of your tunnels then lets take a look again.

Tell me about plankton... tell me about fisheries, tell me about ocean bottom life, tell me about trapped CO2 in dense cool water near the ocean floor possibly being released when it is brought to the surface.. lets also talk about trapped methane gas... etc.
Cyclonebuster:

Lets assume for a moment that your tunnel idea actually works to lower the temperature of the ocean (to 70 degrees was it?). What would that do to the economies of all those countries, islands and tourist destinations, especially in the caribbean, that rely on warm waters that the tourists like for their vacations?

Forget if you will, just for a brief moment, the potential ecological disasters that might occur and that VoirDire has so eloquently pointed out. The idea of cooling the temperature of the sea would wreak economic havoc in the caribbean basin and would bankrupt entire economies.

I, for one, would vote against colder water on our beaches, not to mention that the cooling of the ocean might hamper the production and transport of the coral sand that makes our beaches in Cancun famous!
bump
auburn, the map you posted a little while ago on the storms in florida,were there any reports of damage from the storms in Bay County fL where Panama city is?
Storm Reports..last 24hours.Link
I checked late yesterday afternoon & the new ENSO graphics weren't up yet, though they were in the weekly update..up now.

ENSO update




El Nino looks slightly weakened for the week.

Though the weekly summary says El Nino should intensify over the next 3 months & will likely continue through April - June of 2007.

~ I see we have invest 94E...
where is invest 94L?
It's 94E in the Eastern Pacific south of Mexico.
the 2nd navy site has update 94E 2 25kt and a 1007mb if this keeps up we could have TD 19E at the 0300 update
Cyclonebuster:

I'm not sure if it is rationalizing or justifying on your part, but your answer seems to be off the cuff and not really well thought out.

1. Yes, in the wintertime the water temps here get lower than in the summer, but they don't get down to 70.

2. We have had several CAT 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes and have proven we are well prepared for them. Last year Emily and Wilma came through here and if you come to see how things are just one year later, there is no trace we ever had a hurricane last year. If you prepare, and I'm including building codes, you survive hurricanes quite well. They are a risk here like earthquakes, tornadoes or fires are in other places and you have to live aware of this and be prepared. We like our climate just the way it is, with nice warm waters that tourists come here to enjoy.

3. I don't think that you alone can decide for a whole wide world that it is ok to lower ocean temps just because it's "for a short while anyways and then they return to normal".

I think that the real issue in getting your tunnels built, after answering all the ecological and economic isuues and any others that may arise, is building a consensus around the project and getting people in favour of it. However, I'm glad to see that the consensus is far from reality. So much so that even in a blog with weather enthusiasts the consensus is against the idea. This makes me think that the project is untenable.
Buster, look at the dates on your sources before posting them...
[Coral-List] Mild bleaching in NE Yucatan reefs
Rosa Rodrguez rosaer at mar.icmyl.unam.mx
Tue Sep 30 16:05:51 EDT 2003

Three years ago, and when water temperature peak.
Check out the new "thingamabober" looking thing on MargieKieper's blog.
that looks like a serious storm forming towards the central part of the US. could this system form itself into a Nor`Easter?
236. 0741
GOOD news the nogap drop tropical system in nw carribbean so think that was bad data that was put in nogap on monday
The 10day GFSx ..showing the Low moving up the coast.Link
Answer to physics question is "C"
Quiz me baby!
Cyclonebuster:

There have been reports about mild coral bleaching in some isolated spots as well as healthy coral reefs in general. The truth is that there have been many meetings of the scientific experts on the subject to try and understand what is happening. The consensus seems to be that it is a very complex issue that goes way beyond considering only the water temperature. I hope there are important advances in their research soon, but for now I really don't think you or I are qualified to suggest that the tunnels are the solution that the coral reefs need.

You asked me if the tourists want to come to Cancun to see dead coral reefs. No, I don't think that the tourists want to see dead coral reefs. In fact, many tourists don't even want to see any kind of coral reefs. They want the sun and warm beaches. However, I hope that the experts do come to a better understanding of the reef soon and can insure healthy reefs for a long time.

What I can assure you of though, is that even if cold temperatures meant healthy reefs, there wouldn't be many tourists coming here to see them if the water temperatures were cold. That would give us a situation of a bankrupt economy with a healthy coral reef.
Hello.
How is everyone doing today?
Check out the low to the north and west of Hawaii. Looks interesting...and mayby just a little bit familiar?

RGB Loop
Here is a still picture of the little low.

Listen I've herd Cyclonebuster talk about this over and over and over and over, and yeah my heads about to explode! No one can say for sure what the tunnels will do, don't get your hopes up Cyclone I'm not supporting you. Now as I was saying we have no idea what would happend if these tunnels were actually built. But for now it's way to soon to be taken seriously, and after having Cyclone ramble on and on about it, were all experts on the idea! Enough Is enough Cyclone you've said you're peace so get on with you're life so we can get on with ours!
Thoughts on the unusual occurence of the low, and its similarity to 91C?
Views form the W. Pac.

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I hope that thing stays far away! I've had my fair share of rain after 91C's remnants came through! 6.19 iches in five days!!!!
At least you haven't recieved a foot of rain in a day like the Houston Area did last month, but I bet it was really bad, like a prolonged Tropical Storm. I also heard it was very windy in those series of storms that you got. Not fun.

: (
Sure is slow in here today...
Hey thanks for the commentary. But I've gotta do lots of homework, oh happy blessed day! More homeword that's due tomorrow, that if do not finished the teacher will have my A$$!
Understood Wishcasterboy. I've been down that same road many a day.
For the love of god!! Now your drifting off the subject you originally started with.
Tornado vortex just N of Brevard County in ECFL
Bye!
There was tornado touchdwon in seminole county florida...could this be the first signs of el nino?
Just checking in. Cyclonebuster, El Nino makes the Atlantic Hurricane Season less active. I pray that you at least understood that.
If you don't know, which sounds crazy, El Nino makes the Pacific Hurricane Season more active. You knew that right?
BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT. Cyclonebuster, theres a difference between free thinking and over thinking! Guess what you're doing! Heres a piece of valuable advice, STOP TALKIN ABOUT TUNNELS!
If reasoning doesn't work with you I'll treat you like a child. DO YOU WANT TO BE TREATED LIKE A CHILD?
I can't stop you but by the end of the day, if you do not stop, you will not like me. BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT.
It's a beauty day in the neighborhood! I know that's not right.
Why do you feel the need to kill you're subject by dragging it on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on................ and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!
Dr. Masters is an OG!
Google is the amount of time you've been talking about tunnels!
Old gangster Capone!
I can see the children must be playing again. I have it set on average and only 1900, Skye and Roman show up with one remark each.
Ok I'm really wasting precious time! Heres a little incentive to stop talking about tunnels. If you talk about tunnels that means you want to date me, I'm serious!
95E is up
We youngsters turned OG into a complement. I meant DR is cool. If you were youthful you'd understand that, peace out homy!
Hi Taz,

Orlando area got some damage from tornadoes and a strong front that went through a little bit ago.
They are tracking the storm over on '03's blog.
Even though the Atlantic may be less active it still can create a year long season due to the fact SSTs are greater!

El Nino = WIND SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAARRRR!!!!!!

LOL...
Models were wieghing more toward twins. Only on the back up Navy site so far. 94E has got a area of development box now too.
Man! the tropics are smokin!
Oh, the West Pacifc already has a year-long hurricane season...
The tornado in FL moved off shore a good bit ago. Damage reports are coming in. 3 of 5 reported so far by the local media..lol. Sadly 2 injuries in Oviedo. That place is a tornado haven, especially during el nino winters.
The votes are coming in Tonight. Pray for the wonderful immigrants who make this country so diverse!!!!
Just like we dont know all the consequences of your tunnels, cyclonebuster. Now leave it be. Its pretty clear no one wants to hear about it on this blog, and even Dr. Masters has said stop with the tunnel talk here.
Uhh...cyclone, what the heck does that mean? The chances of you dying in a hurricane are very slim. You have a better chance dying in a car wreck. So I guess you better think of a plan to stop those. But seriously, Dr. Masters has asked you to stop more then once. Why wont you obey his wishes as the creator of this blog?
Yep....they certainly make it diverse.


Actress Adrienne Shelly's hanging death in her West Village office bathroom looked like suicide. It turned out to be murder.
The stunning whodunit was cracked yesterday after cops linked a bathtub sneaker print to a teen construction worker who allegedly snapped when Shelly made a noise complaint last week, sources said.

Diego Pillco, a 19-year-old illegal immigrant who had been renovating the apartment below Shelly's office, told cops in a chilling confession that he was afraid of getting arrested and deported, sources said.

Randrewl,

You can state just as many stories about all the other races commiting crimes aswell. Dont act like it's confined to the spanish immigrants. The majority of them live just as we do, simply trying to make some money and have a good life.
Whats up Rand hello all
Cyclone, the Ozone hole has nothing to do with global warming and CO2, it caused by other chemicals that are banned in developed countries. And warm weather of Antartica actually makes the ozone hole smaller. Sea Level isnt rising so fast to swallow you in the waves. Its rising by milimeters a year. I think you can move fast enough to avoid that. Earthqaukes and Volcanoes arent effected by global warming. Tornadoes are supposedly on the rise, but we've had the longest stretch without a F5 tornado in recorded history. The rest are fairly accurate, however, no one knows how much of an effect global warming is having and its still not certain your tunnels work, let alone have benifits that outweight the consequences.

Oh, and you still refuse to answer the question of why you wont stop despite Dr. Masters asking you to.
Wise up guys. It just isn't people seeking jobs and a so-called better life.

I say stop talking about the tunnels because no one wants to hear about them(we already have many times) I think people are far more concerned about politics then your tunnels.
When you get him to stop on the tunnels...I'll stop. Read this report and see how it really is.
That report says nothing about the mexican people, only that terrorists are coming across the border. They may be posing as Mexicans, but it doesnt make them one. BTW, Im all for closing the border, we do need a way to keep track of immigrants, but the immigrants themselves are not the problem, its our policies and enforcment in this country thats the problem.
Evenin Crab. What's up?
One thing about global warming and ozone depletion: Global warming causes the stratosphere to get colder as heat is trapped; this accelerates ozone loss. Link

This also affects storms (left scale is the 200 mb temperature):



Based on NRL's CloudSat images, a normal value right now is around -50 to -60*C.
OTM's are illegal immigrants also. I never said anything about just Mexicans....where did that come from?
HurricaneMyles...You read that 38 page report that fast?
Randrewl, the murder report was obviously about an illegal mexican immigrant that obviously was trying to villify the spanish immigrants. Seriosly, its not the illegal workers that are the problem, its all the other crap that comes with having an essentially open border. We dont need to punish the workers, we need to know whats coming in and out.

Edit: I didnt read the 30+ page report, I was referring to the news story.
Every day....I collect articles regarding crime stats involving illegal immigrants in this country. You really need to do some more homework on the issue. Over 60% of the so-called innocent illegal workers you are crying over are wanted in their home country for crimes and came here to try and escape prosecution.
Cyclone, I'm looking up NOX in reference to Ozone depletion and it doesnt destroy Ozone itself. Its a catalyst for CHC and such. If we remove those NOX has nothing to help along. The pressure increases from sea rise causing increase in earthquakes and volcanoes is something I havent heard before. Sources please? BTW, Dr. Masters posted it in the blog on more then one occasion.
I have googled it buster, thats why Im asking where you got it. I cant find anything stating increase in sea level will cause more volcanoes and earthquakes.
From Dr. Masters:
Researchers announced last month that the total ozone levels in the Arctic dropped up to 30% during the annual springtime breakup of the polar vortex, a new record loss in the Arctic. The ozone destruction was caused by human-emitted chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) present in the stratosphere. Strangely, observations show that levels of CFCs and other ozone depleting gases are at a maximum now and are beginning to decline, thanks to the adoption of the Montreal Protocol in 1987. So why are we seeing record ozone losses?

(more)
Thank you. Thats what I was looking for. It does make sense, but natural laws dont always obey sense.
Posted By: Randrewl at 2:18 AM GMT on November 08, 2006.

Yep....they certainly make it diverse.


Actress Adrienne Shelly's hanging death in her West Village office bathroom looked like suicide. It turned out to be murder.
The stunning whodunit was cracked yesterday after cops linked a bathtub sneaker print to a teen construction worker who allegedly snapped when Shelly made a noise complaint last week, sources said.

Diego Pillco, a 19-year-old illegal immigrant who had been renovating the apartment below Shelly's office, told cops in a chilling confession that he was afraid of getting
arrested and deported, sources said.


I don't have time to talk but this is all I need to say. Rand you're a sick man, and what you said was completely racist. You're an insane fear mongering xenophobiac!!
Have some mercy on my poor little brain.
Some day we will have to adapt to changes in climate whether we like it or not, or we will die!!
Before you twist what I said into something about Global Warming heres the definition....

To change to fit a new situation or set of
circumstances, as humans.
Good evening,

Just remembering the storm of the century in march 93...What a incredibly powerful system that was with its affects being reached in many different locals.Some of its affects included Sub-freezeing temps in northern florida,winds gusts to near 100mph reported on the dry tortugas,and 5-9ft of storm surge from the gulf-coast to the florida keys.Indeed truly a system that does occour very often as damage estimates were around 1.6 million dollars.

Here is an IR image of the system making its way threw the southeast.


Yea strong winds were felt in many places in southflorida.The CAT 2 winds that were reported from the keys to this day is unbelievable.
========================
East Pacific
========================

Storm ID:TD

National Hurricane Center
Tropical Depression 19E 12.7N 104.5W -- 30 knots 1007 mb

Storm Status
Tropical Depression 19E (NONAME) has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots.

Warning Alert
Tropical Depression (TD) is approx. 430 nm southwest of Acapulco, Mexico moving northwest at 7 knots.

Good Morning.... There is much disscussion re. Global Warming, and the cause of that. The fact is, that there is plenty of good evidence to show its causes and the possible outcome. There is also the historical view that the condition is cyclical. The evidence is still coming in from both camps. My own feeling is that we are able to reduce emissions over the near future,starting NOW so that we can have some chance of dealing with the issue in a meaningful way in future, while we await the outcome of continuing research. The argument that goes " we dont need to change anything because we're not sure...."' is a bankrupt and totally foolish argument, that comes out of America more than it comes out of anywhere esle on the Planet....Have a nice day..
news from the tropics...ddddd.dddddd.. sorry couldn't resist, coral spawning has still not occurred this year(ussually occurs october 28-nov-7) the reason researchers on the island say is due to high sst's around the island also noted coral bleaching this year was the worst they had ever seen, these factors combine to paint a pretty bad picture for the future or puerto rico's coral reefs. Also noted that many on the tropical frogs found in "el yunque" have been found with many deformities, third arm or extra head and others are just plain sick and dying.
due to higher then normal sst's coral bleaching has increased this year the worst year so far on the island! and to add insult to injury coral spawning has as of yet not occured. Researchers believe the coral's spawing period hasn't occured due to the amount of stress on the corals from the heat. Indeed in shallow waters researchers have measured water temps at 91 degrees! lno one knows if the corals will be able to spawn yet. ---i tried to post this earlier but it didn't post this is a retry---
pottery~ please realize all Americians don't feel this way. Everything saying that global warming isn't a problem is funded in the end by oil companys & yes there is many that won't take the time to look up sources to realize this or love their oil loving republician ideals too much to doubt it enough to look for themselves. I was sorely disappointed that only one republican I could vote for wanted to move away from oil & he was only for biodeseil. Atleast the demecrates won the house.

Experts: Global Warming Threatens Ruins

Id say the South could grow enough corn & Sugar cane in 1 season to produce enough ethanol.To wean us off the Messy crude thing.Easy.But as the wise Skyepony says..too many interest with power to make that happen.But a new day dawns here in the Nation.The voice of the people has spoken.Overwhellmingly.
Just wondering if anyone knows why the NWS are gving these scary marine forcasts. 5 to 10 with 17 to 21 foot seas. HONEST TO GOD.