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Late February storms put only a slight dent in U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:14 PM GMT on February 28, 2013

Abundant moisture from heavy rains and snows that fell during two major Midwest storms in late February put only a slight dent in the great Midwest drought of 2012 - 2013. According to the February 28, 2013 Drought Monitor, the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. suffering moderate or greater drought shrank from 56% to 54%, and the area in the worst category of drought--exceptional drought--fell from 6.7% to 5.4% over the past week. These are the largest 1-week improvements in these drought categories that we've seen for 9 months and 15 months, respectively. The improvements were most noteworthy in Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and the Southeast U.S., where drought improved by a full category (using the level 1 to 4 categories of the Palmer Drought Severity Index.) However, the dry pattern that has been dominant over the U.S. for most of the past year will re-assert itself during the coming ten days, and most of the drought region will receive less than 0.5" of precipitation through March 9. There exists the possibility of a significant Midwest storm on March 10, according to recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF computer models, but it is too early to assess if this storm may be able to provide significant drought relief. In general, droughts are more likely in the Midwest U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) This is what we had in during most of 2012, and continue to have in 2013. Equatorial East Pacific ocean temperatures are currently 0.5°C below average. This is similar to the ocean temperatures seen in the spring of 2012, just before the Great Drought of 2012 began. Most of the U.S. drought region needs 3 - 9" of precipitation to pull out of drought. Unless the Midwest receives a top-ten percent wettest spring on record, drought is going to be a huge concern as we enter summer.


Figure 1. Drought conditions as of February 28, 2013 showed that drought still gripped a majority of the U.S. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Predicted 7-day precipitation for the period ending Thursday, March 7. Less than 10% of the U.S. drought regions are predicted to receive as much as 0.5" of precipitation (dark green color.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Jeff Masters
2/25/13- Blizzard
2/25/13- Blizzard
Canyon, Texas
Breaking Storm
Breaking Storm
A lifting storm above the Ruby Mountain peaks.
snow on ice over water...
snow on ice over water...
icing followed by snow and temperatures just above freezing...

Drought Q Rocky Plato Orko

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters!
Thanks Doc !
thanks dr masters latest gfs ppl
Thank you Dr Masters
Asperatus clouds in New Zealand:



thanks dr. masters.
12z GFS back on board for snow in SE Texas. NWS has been mentioning it in the forecast discussion as of late. Nothing will stick to the ground but could see some flurries

39 hour:


42 hour:


45 hour:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Asperatus clouds in New Zealand:



thanks dr. masters.


That is amazing! Thanks for posting it GS
A slight dent?

For me the current trend is a huge improvement.

gfs showing snow flakes in tampa and miami
Quoting eddye:
gfs showing snow flakes in tampa and miami


Not seeing that at all. Where are you seeing this?
Thanks Dr. Masters....
rob but isnt the gfs showing colder weather
Two areas of moisture heading for the US hope that will help with the drought !

Water vapour

Loop Embedded




Quoting VR46L:
Two areas of moisture heading for the US hope that will help with the drought !

Water vapour

Loop Embedded






It will
Thank you Dr. Masters ...beautiful pictures!
Lots of moisture in the Atlantic on the GFS


348Hr big rain in S FL
Great photo post #5, GeorgiaStormz. Looks like an artist's painting rather than a picture!
Whoa there.... lets capture this moment:






I'll dance a snow dance to make sure this verifies.
Only 138 hrs....thats tuesday.....wednseday
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Whoa there.... lets capture this moment:






I'll dance a snow dance to make sure this verifies.
Only 138 hrs....thats tuesday.....wednseday



Looks like the system will be a bit too warm.
Quoting eddye:
gfs showing snow flakes in tampa and miami


Quoting robintampabay:


Not seeing that at all. Where are you seeing this?


I am not seeing it either. But as I said before, if it is going to snow at all in Florida this weekend, it will snow in Florida this weekend, regardless of what the computer forecast models show. And likewise, if it is not going to snow then it will not snow regardless of whether the models depict that or not.

Perhaps we should save the excitement for the actual event itself, if it happens. As for me, I am rooting for next December or January to bring an atmospheric setup similar to the one predicted for this weekend. If THAT happens then you'll very likely get your snow and not just a few flakes here and there but a vast white carpet draped all across the Florida landscape. THEN we'll really have something!
Quoting FunnelVortex:



Looks like the system will be a bit too warm.


I'f it hits at night I dont think so.
Air behind the low is into the 20s.

It just depends on placement, timing, and precip amounts, which I'm (very) skeptical about.

GFS shows 28-30F while it snows (plenty cold enough) espcially given that most GA snow falls at above freezing temps.
9 FunnelVortex: A slight dent? For me, the current trend is a huge improvement.

So what are you seeing that I'm not? Or are you talking about just your local area?
What was the official Rocky snowfall accumulation total for Kansas City?
Quoting aspectre:
9 FunnelVortex: A slight dent? For me, the current trend is a huge improvement.

So what are you seeing that I'm not? Or do you talking about just your local area?


Im talking about my local area.
Last ECMWF was just a tiny bit off with out snow, not sure if it'll come around will see at 12Z if it shows a southeast low.
I dont think it will be too major if it pans out though, since major SE snow comes from gulf systems:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I'f it hits at night I dont think so.
Air behind the low is into the 20s.

It just depends on placement, timing, and precip amounts, which I'm (very) skeptical about.

GFS shows 28-30F while it snows (plenty cold enough) espcially given that most GA snow falls at above freezing temps.



Agree!!

It will be all about timing of precipitation falling and temperature at that time!

6.9 mag. Earth Quake  Kuril Islands

Seals take scientists to Antarctic's ocean floor
By Pauline Askin
SYDNEY | Tue Feb 26, 2013 4:22am EST

Excerpt: (Reuters) - Elephant seals wearing head sensors and swimming deep beneath Antarctic ice have helped scientists better understand how the ocean's coldest, deepest waters are formed, providing vital clues to understanding its role in the world's climate.

The tagged seals, along with sophisticated satellite data and moorings in ocean canyons, all played a role in providing data from the extreme Antarctic environment, where observations are very rare and ships could not go, said researchers at the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem CRC in Tasmania.

Scientists have long known of the existence of "Antarctic bottom water," a dense, deep layer of water near the ocean floor that has a significant impact on the movement of the world's oceans. Three areas where this water is formed were known of, and the existence of a fourth suspected for decades, but the area was far too inaccessible, until now, thanks to the seals.

"The seals went to an area of the coastline that no ship was ever going to get to," said Guy Williams, ACE CRC Sea Ice specialist and co-author of the study. "This is a particular form of Antarctic water called Antarctic bottom water production, one of the engines that drives ocean circulation," he told Reuters. "What we've done is found another piston in that engine."

Southern Ocean Elephant seals are the largest of all seals, with males growing up to six meters (20 feet) long and weighing up to 4,000 kilograms (8,800 lbs).


More here.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Asperatus clouds in New Zealand:



thanks dr. masters.
Apparently "Asperatus" means OMG IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD!!!! (jk) Actually it is Latin for "turbulence" and this particular cloud classification is as recent as only 2009 Link

I see these often when i'm on high ground here in Mid TN... but I never seem to have a decent camera with me :<
It's not just a matter of rain/moisture, but a matter of organic matter.  In other words, we need to get to work revivifying/rebuilding our soils so they can retain more of the moisture that falls and become more drought resistant/resilient.  Allan Savory just gave a talk at the TED 2013 conference on his biomimetic Holistic Pasture Management that does just that (add organic matter/build soil at an incredible rate, that is).  Still waiting on the video, but here's the article:

Fighting the growing deserts, with livestock: Allan Savory at TED2013
http://blog.ted.com/2013/02/27/fighting-the-growi ng-deserts-with-livestock-allan-savory-at-ted2013/

Allan Savory has dedicated his life to studying management of grasslands. And if that doesn't sound exciting, just wait, because it touches on the deepest roots of climate change and the future of the planet. 

"The most massive, tsunami, perfect storm is bearing down on us," is the grim beginning to Savory's talk. This storm is the result of rising population, of land that is turning to desert, and, of course, climate change. Savory is also unsure of the belief that new technology will solve all of the problems. He agrees that only tech will create alternatives to fossil fuels, but that's not the only thing causing climate change.
------- 
So what can they do? "There is only one option left to climatologists and scientists. That is to do the unthinkable: to use livestock, bunched and moving, as a proxy for the herds." Those herds mulch it down, leaving both the trampled grass and their dung. The grass is then free to grow without having damaged with fire. 
------ 
The results are stunning. For location after location he shows two comparison photos, one using his technique, one not. The difference is, "a profound change," and he's not kidding - in some cases the locations are unrecognizable (in one case the audience gasped). Not only is the land greener, crop yields are increasing. For example, in Patagonia, an expanding desert, they put 25,000 sheep into one flock. They found an extraordinary 50% improvement in production of land in the first year. 

(more at link)


And here are a few short videos on the process:

Holistic Planned Grazing

Allan Savory: How wildlife can resuscitate dying land (from an earlier TED Talk)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Lots of moisture in the Atlantic....


This just made me pause and reflect... It's one of those days!?
ridiculous.
Looks like another La nina is in the making >.>..
Rainfall amounts were truly crazy here! Check this out:



Major drought help.
What Makes This Temperature Map Interesting?



It is a simple yet monumental thing if you are a warm weather lover! If you notice in this map the coldest temps I can find on this map are in So. Canada (you can see the key on the upper left) and not one single one is below zero!! This is HUGE if you are anxious for the air to start warming. What this is showing me is that the massive area of cold air that has been to the north the last 6 weeks is starting to break. Also climatologically this is the time of year that we start to warm up

Our drought is over:





Quoting FLWaterFront:




I am not seeing it either. But as I said before, if it is going to snow at all in Florida this weekend, it will snow in Florida this weekend, regardless of what the computer forecast models show. And likewise, if it is not going to snow then it will not snow regardless of whether the models depict that or not.

Perhaps we should save the excitement for the actual event itself, if it happens. As for me, I am rooting for next December or January to bring an atmospheric setup similar to the one predicted for this weekend. If THAT happens then you'll very likely get your snow and not just a few flakes here and there but a vast white carpet draped all across the Florida landscape. THEN we'll really have something!



If this same pattern occurred in January we would be seeing teens in Brooksville, 20's even near the coast and highs in the upper 30's to low 40's along with snow for many coastal regions, possibly even accumulations if the winter was already quite cold.

As for the current situation. Forecasters are still going a bit conservative just because we are heading into March. I realize the higher sun angle, shorter nights, and warmer water will fight against the cold some. However I am confident highs will stay in the 50's both weekend days and Sunday will probably will be lower 50's for highs. Monday will be lucky to hit 60 in most areas still.
I could see going a few degrees above the models but not to the level that they are. The models have been so consistent about the cold that it is a reasonable forecast to stick with.

I would still go with lows a bit higher on Friday night and Saturday night though than the models especially near the coast.


Quoting Jedkins01:



If this same pattern occurred in January we would be seeing teens in Brooksville, 20's even near the coast and highs in the upper 30's to low 40's along with snow for many coastal regions, possibly even accumulations if the winter was already quite cold.

As for the current trough. Forecasters are still going a bit conservative just because we are heading into January. I realize the higher sun angle, shorter nights, and warmer water will fight against the cold some. However I am confident highs will stay in the 50's both weekend days and Sunday will probably will be lower 50's for highs. Monday will be lucky to hit 60 in most areas still.



Heading into January? I'm heading into March her in Fort Myers :)
Thank you Dr. Masters!! :D
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
ridiculous.
looks like spilled vomit.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Heading into January? I'm heading into March her in Fort Myers :)


lol typo :)

I corrected it!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Brrr.... Too cold for FL, and the high for the next few days is below 60!!!!!!!!! O_O
Quoting deometer:
It's not just a matter of rain/moisture, but a matter of organic matter.  In other words, we need to get to work revivifying/rebuilding our soils so they can retain more of the moisture that falls and become more drought resistant/resilient.  Allan Savory just gave a talk at the TED 2013 conference on his biomimetic Holistic Pasture Management that does just that (add organic matter/build soil at an incredible rate, that is).  Still waiting on the video, but here's the article:

Fighting the growing deserts, with livestock: Allan Savory at TED2013
http://blog.ted.com/2013/02/27/fighting-the-growi ng-deserts-with-livestock-allan-savory-at-ted2013/

Allan Savory has dedicated his life to studying management of grasslands. And if that doesn't sound exciting, just wait, because it touches on the deepest roots of climate change and the future of the planet. 

"The most massive, tsunami, perfect storm is bearing down on us," is the grim beginning to Savory's talk. This storm is the result of rising population, of land that is turning to desert, and, of course, climate change. Savory is also unsure of the belief that new technology will solve all of the problems. He agrees that only tech will create alternatives to fossil fuels, but that's not the only thing causing climate change.
------- 
So what can they do? "There is only one option left to climatologists and scientists. That is to do the unthinkable: to use livestock, bunched and moving, as a proxy for the herds." Those herds mulch it down, leaving both the trampled grass and their dung. The grass is then free to grow without having damaged with fire. 
------ 
The results are stunning. For location after location he shows two comparison photos, one using his technique, one not. The difference is, "a profound change," and he's not kidding - in some cases the locations are unrecognizable (in one case the audience gasped). Not only is the land greener, crop yields are increasing. For example, in Patagonia, an expanding desert, they put 25,000 sheep into one flock. They found an extraordinary 50% improvement in production of land in the first year. 

(more at link)


And here are a few short videos on the process:

Holistic Planned Grazing

Allan Savory: How wildlife can resuscitate dying land (from an earlier TED Talk)

Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: July 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4



I'd give this 10++++ if I could. Thanks!!!
Quoting Jedkins01:


lol typo :)

I corrected it!


No worries I was just messing with you. I'm retiring at the end of the year so I don't want to go backwards! :)
Another one of my artworks.

Apparently we have a slight chance at snow here too as well. The NWS included a slight chance of showers Saturday night into Sunday morning as they mentioned that models have gotten stronger with lift associated with the strong shortwave enough for a chance of "precip" for here(I noticed they didn't just say rain in the discussion).

They go on to say in the discussion that while the chance is very low, they will be watching closely in case any snow occurs in the area!

BTW unlike Central Florida, its possible that temps will be at or below freezing across much of the Tallahassee area during the time of potential precip.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


No worries I was just messing with you. I'm retiring at the end of the year so I don't want to go backwards! :)


Just be glad that he did not say January, 2012. :)
Now you all are going to have to watch out in the south..I need to do more research but I found that usually when the south east have these big cold spells especially this late in the year have tropical problems later down the road.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Asperatus clouds in New Zealand:



thanks dr. masters.


Hi everyone...

Yes Pcola originally put up that picture..it's amazing
I the positive side if troughing is present during hurricane season on the east coast and the high is weak most storms can be deflected.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Another one of my artworks.

LOL 'Road closed'!!! Like it.
Next week is the yearly Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference


Highlights from the Status of Action Items (downloaded WORD doc).

Moving from Deterministic to Probabilistic Methods for Forecasting Storm Surge

Based on the progress made in developing the PHISH outputs, a final decision on the SLOSH deterministic runs for 2013 will be made in time for the 2013 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (March 4). If the SLOSH deterministic runs will not be provided for 2013, then OS21 will transmit a national Public Information Statement immediately after the IHC.



Implementation of a Storm Surge Warning

OS21, through the NWS Storm Surge Team, will work with Regions and NHC to identify the WFOs which will actively participate in 2013 real-time non-public testing for the storm surge watch/warning. Pacific Region will opt out at this time, but WFO Honolulu/CPHC will remain engaged.



Medium-Range Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities

NHC will issue an experimental 1-5 day tropical cyclone formation probability as part of the current Atlantic TWO beginning sometime between 15 July and 1 September, pending an in-house trial period during the first part of the season and the completion of the necessary technical development. Assuming additional technical development, also depict the probabilities graphically.
keeper is that high temps that the gfs shows
Athometx haven't seen you in a while.

According to CWG next Wenesday is our last chance to see snow.Yes I know snow can happen later in the year such as in April but their are hints that after the March cool down the blow torch will be set again.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I'f it hits at night I dont think so.
Air behind the low is into the 20s.

It just depends on placement, timing, and precip amounts, which I'm (very) skeptical about.

GFS shows 28-30F while it snows (plenty cold enough) espcially given that most GA snow falls at above freezing temps.


low confidence forecast on that clipper system that swings by you there. At least from what I gathered in the discussions in my local forecast area said they had a hard time believing that system would just flatten the ridge out ahead of it, saying the models are showing a southward bias.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...BEFORE THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMES INTO THE PICTURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
00Z FEB 28 MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON ITS TRACK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH TAKE THE 500MB VORT MAX FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY MORNING TO THE OZARKS BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GEM IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. WAS
INITIALLY SUSPICIOUS OF HOW THE 00Z GFS FLATTENED THE STRONG
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...BUT THEN THE 00Z ECMWF DID THE EXACT SAME
THING. BOTH MODELS ARE INSISTENT IN DRIVING THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE
RIGHT THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS...RESULTING IN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
TO THE STORM SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION
WOULD YIELD A PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE TEMPS RISE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING. WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL FEATURE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE WAVE
PASSES THROUGH. AFTER THAT...COOL/DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY.


Models have been consistent on this being a rather "wet" clipper type system.
Here's to hoping:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Here's to hoping:
Is that showing snow for North Georgia?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Here's to hoping:
After next week your chances of snow will be none to zero.Last year when I saw 80's close to 90'sninMarch I knew snow was out of the cards.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is that showing snow for North Georgia?


yes.
1-2 inches..but i'm not sold,.


A freeze down to mobile directly following the system's exit.
It would be important for it to occur at night:



Clipper's are not the big snowmakers for GA eithier though. Our big snows start in South TX/Gulf of mexico
Quoting eddye:
keeper is that high temps that the gfs shows
min temps or overnight lows
Quoting washingtonian115:
After next week your chances of snow will be none to zero.Last year when I saw 80's close to 90'sninMarch I knew snow was out of the cards.
Some of the biggest snows on the NE have happened in March!!! Don't count it out yet.
Carolina coast should take a beating:

Quoting JustPlantIt:
Some of the biggest snows on the NE have happened in March!!! Don't count it out yet.
'Superstorm' of 1993 came to mind!!!
Deleted. KeeperOfTheGate has already answered eddye's (and my) question.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Another one of my artworks.



This seems inconsistent. Based on the grass, the rotation motion of the tornado is clockwise.

Based on the cloud formation near the tornado, the rotation motion of the tornado appears to be counter-clockwise.
Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
229 PM EST THU FEB 28 2013


GA
/O.NEW.KFFC.FZ.W.0001.130301T0500Z-130301T1400Z/

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...AT LANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILL E...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTRE E CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...WARNER ROBINS...AMERICUS...
CORDELE
229 PM EST THU FEB 28 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OR NEWLY-BUDDED PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR
KILLED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE
WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

$$

I think our freeze/frost program resumes March 1st, but It hasnt been so warm recently, nothing is really budding. Not sure how much discretion the NWS has.
Highs now are supposed to average 60F....but we will be in the 40s and 50s for a while.
THE FROST FREEZE SEASON BEGINS MAR 1ST. WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 28-33 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...WILL
NEED TO ISSUE A FREEZING WARNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR SW
AND FAR SE CWA. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 7-11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND 9-14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
GUIDANCE IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN A POTENT
SLUG OF MOISTURE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z SATURDAY BUT DRY IT QUICKLY
THEREAFTER. BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH GEORGIA INDICATE
ALL SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE 09Z-12Z SATURDAY WINDOW.
AFTER SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS...THE RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
ACTUALLY VERY SIMILAR /THOUGH JUST A TEENSY BIT LESS/ THAN WHAT
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAD IN PLACE...GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND A DUSTING POSSIBLY INTO SOME
OF THE NORTH METRO COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WORDING IN THE HWO BUT
OTHERWISE FOR NOW POTENTIAL NEED FOR WINTER PRODUCTS LOOKS PRETTY
LOW. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE TONIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM...LOW TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND TRENDING COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. STILL
SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT 12Z ECMWF IS
ACTUALLY TRENDING CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS /KIND OF A SURPRISE...
USUALLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF/
WITH BRINGING
A COLD...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY TO ADD THUNDER...BUT BOTH BRING THE
COLD CORE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY. GFS BRINGS
OVER 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA..
.GENERALLY JUST
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE METRO AREA. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY OUT THERE IN
FANTASYLAND BUT INTERESTING NONETHELESS...AND FORECAST TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED.

The area of 90% humidity across the SE on saturday supports flurries:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Athometx haven't seen you in a while.

According to CWG next Wenesday is our last chance to see snow.Yes I know snow can happen later in the year such as in April but their are hints that after the March cool down the blow torch will be set again.


Hey Washi. First time all winter we're getting days of sunshine. Which is great as long as this doesn't mean the end of the rains for us. It's cold too.UGH! Lol.

ECMWF goes from :

North missippi:


to just off the coast:


To pounding the NC coast:
Check out the 850mb winds (bottom left) on the NC coast:
Quoting Jedkins01:
Apparently we have a slight chance at snow here too as well. The NWS included a slight chance of showers Saturday night into Sunday morning as they mentioned that models have gotten stronger with lift associated with the strong shortwave enough for a chance of "precip" for here(I noticed they didn't just say rain in the discussion).

They go on to say in the discussion that while the chance is very low, they will be watching closely in case any snow occurs in the area!

BTW unlike Central Florida, its possible that temps will be at or below freezing across much of the Tallahassee area during the time of potential precip.


Yeah, I could easily imagine that Tally might get a genuine snow shower or two with this system. Again, if this were January you'd be looking at the potential for several inches. Even more importantly, it would likely stick for a couple of days.

Tallahassee got a pretty good snowfall during the Christmas 1989 event, which blanketed much of North Florida in white. Some of that snow stayed around for a couple of days because it was followed by extreme cold.
Long term...
the long range models show the high over the Florida Peninsula to move
east into the western Atlantic waters for the early to middle of next
week...as low pressure develops over the southeast United States
and moves east into the western Atlantic waters. This will allow
for another strong cold front to move southward and through South
Florida by middle of next. This will bring another shot of
possible colder air to the area for late next week. At this time
the long range models are showing that the lows could fall again
down into the upper 30s to middle 40s over most of the area for late
next week except middle 30s west of Lake Okeechobee...and highs
could again be in the 60s over most of the area.
Quoting washingtonian115:
After next week your chances of snow will be none to zero.Last year when I saw 80's close to 90'sninMarch I knew snow was out of the cards.


Last year was very unusual in that respect. This year is very unlikely to repeat that performance. What is more likely is an average to below average March in the DC area, temperature-wise. Snow is another matter, it could still happen or perhaps it will not.

Then again, Washington got enough snow a couple of years back to equal three seasons worth of normal snowfall.
trough by 240 hrs:
were having freezeing rain in south fla also it looks like next weekend going 2 be cold didnt know were going 2 have 2 strong cold fronts come through
Nice little warm tongue in the Gulf. Interesting to compare with how it looked last year. Top is 2013, bottom is 2012.

Here's the Sea Height Anomaly to compare. Top is 2013, bottom is 2012.


Quoting eddye:
were having freezeing rain in south fla also it looks like next weekend going 2 be cold didnt know were going 2 have 2 strong cold fronts come through


Where do you see that at Eddye? GFS, Nam?
I want this again:
Interesting presentation on the colors used on Storm Surge maps from next weeks Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference.

Many presentations are already online.


Communication of Hurricane Storm Surge Threat: A Mixed-Method Analysis (Powerpoint)

Basically, using Red/Green colors resulted in the most accurate interpertation of storm surge maps.
Long term...
the long range models show the high over the Florida Peninsula to move
east into the western Atlantic waters for the early to middle of next
week...as low pressure develops over the southeast United States
and moves east into the western Atlantic waters. This will allow
for another strong cold front to move southward and through South
Florida by middle of next. This will bring another shot of
possible colder air to the area for late next week. At this time
the long range models are showing that the lows could fall again
down into the upper 30s to middle 40s over most of the area for late
next week except middle 30s west of Lake Okeechobee...and highs
could again be in the 60s over most of the area.

here u go rob
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I want this again:
Awesome storm that I remember well!!!!

NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE IN THE WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND TIME FRAME.
27/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF RUNS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT 28/00Z RUN ALL
SHOWING A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
CURRENTLY HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS PHASING OVER THE MIDWEST AND
DEVELOPING A DEEP CUT OFF LOW. THIS LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TRACKING NORTHEAST BRIEFLY AND
HOOKING EAST. THE CWA WOULD BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIP WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD OF THE 28/00Z ECMWF SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. TO NOTE...28/00Z GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW AND A WEAKER UPPER LOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO PHASING
APPARENT. GEFS MEAN HOWEVER IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN BUT STILL SHOWING A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG WITH THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
I love this guy. He's my local meteorologist and he's hilarious.

Link
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I want this again:


That is the Superstorm of '93. If you want that, get ready for multiple roof collapses in the Atlanta Metro. Snow removal capability would also be stretched way beyond the limit. At least it would all melt pretty fast, just as it did 20 years ago.
102. etxwx
Stunning reversal? Why 'big paper' just went green in Indonesia

By Dan Murphy, Staff writer - CS Monitor
February 19, 2013
Asia Pulp & Paper Co. has promised to stop using wood from Indonesia's natural forests. Unprecedented market pressures, driven in part by Barbie and Mickey Mouse, helped.
Complete article can be found here.
Quoting newt3d:


This seems inconsistent. Based on the grass, the rotation motion of the tornado is clockwise.

Based on the cloud formation near the tornado, the rotation motion of the tornado appears to be counter-clockwise.


That is why they call them "twisters". :)
104. VR46L
CPC Maps today half and half outlook in 6-10 day outlook but colder than normal outlook for most of US in 8-14 outlook

6-10 DAY




8-14 DAY

A new 1 month outlook for March was also released by the CPC today, looks like near or below average for most:

This is something that normally happens in the dead of winter around here, not in March...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I love this guy. He's my local meteorologist and he's hilarious.

Link
Gotta love someone with some 'personality'!!!!!!!
108. VR46L
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Gotta love someone with some 'personality'!!!!!!!


Yes Weather as a subject can be really dry and its good to see some humour thrown in But that is only my opinion !!
it is a strong low to start off...the GFS takes it out eastwards, not the case with Euro...
It would be a Nor'beast if it were to move up the coast starting with that intensity



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
it is a strong low to start off...the GFS takes it out eastwards, not the case with Euro...
It would be a Nor'beast if it were to move up the coast starting with that intensity


Euro actually takes it east also. Looks good at 168 hours:



But off it goes at 192 hours:



I'm not sold on such an eastward track though. Expect the models to trend north, maybe not enough to give us a major storm up here, but definitely not straight east like many of the models are saying now.
OK boys and girls... gotta put those chickies to bed... yes, I cleaned them today, oh, I smell like a chicken too. Just started cooking dinner..., HellifIknow.. just some chow for the evening! Smells pretty darn good though. ??? rice or pasta. I'll figure it out. Have a good eve. everyone.
Here's a comparison of the operational 12z GFS run against the GFS ensemble. Notice how the GFS takes the low south of Bermuda, but the ensemble takes it well north of the island.



@ Maboy1

What worries me about this one is the intensity as it moves up the coast


That is in the low 980s! Not even close to my CWA

Im not looking for hurricane winds here


Huntsville Area:

Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph
.
Friday A 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday Night A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday A chance of snow before noon, then a chance for flurries. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
.
.
next week:

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Huntsville Area:

Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph
.
Friday A 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday Night A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday A chance of snow before noon, then a chance for flurries. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
.
.
next week:

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


huh! That means I might have to use photoshop tonight for that GA...
Tuesday night:

RIGHT NOW MODELS
DEVELOP BETWEEN .25 AND .5 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUNDINGS LOOK LIKE ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...RIGHT AT ONSET...IF
LOW LEVELS COOL A BIT...SOME FREEZING RAIN MIGHT OCCUR.
MODELS THEN
FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KANSAS TO PUSH QUICKLY SE INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DISAGREE AS TO
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG. BUT EITHER WAY...THEY SHOW A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.
THIS BEARS SOME WATCHING...AS QPF LOOKS HEAVY ENOUGH FOR
SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM.
From weather.com

Next Week

System is forecast to move out of the Rockies Monday then take a long track across the central U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic coast through mid to late week. Based on the forecast track there is potential to produce a rather broad swath of snowfall and that could lead to our next named storm. It is much too early however to try to resolve details of precipitation type and amount of snow. Stay tuned for details.

Saturn? (Sandy's shadow)
New model run is colder and lighter with Tuesday snow:


before:

Just reminding everyone I made a new Blog Entry on South Atlantic storms.... I'd appreciate if some people looked over it and gave me feedback in the comments Thanks :p


NASA's Van Allen Probes Reveal a New Radiation Belt Around Earth

Feb. 28, 2013 %u2014 NASA's Van Allen Probes mission has discovered a previously unknown third radiation belt around Earth, revealing the existence of unexpected structures and processes within these hazardous regions of space.

Previous observations of Earth's Van Allen belts have long documented two distinct regions of trapped radiation surrounding our planet. Particle detection instruments aboard the twin Van Allen Probes, launched Aug. 30, quickly revealed to scientists the existence of this new, transient, third radiation belt.

The belts, named for their discoverer, James Van Allen, are critical regions for modern society, which is dependent on many space-based technologies. The Van Allen belts are affected by solar storms and space weather and can swell dramatically. When this occurs, they can pose dangers to communications and GPS satellites, as well as humans in space.

Whole article on Science Daily

Another weather related article on Science Daily today:

Every Degree Fall in Winter Air Temperature Equals 1 Percent Drop in Ambulance Response Time

Hello and good night as well from Germany. As a catholic I was following the coverage of the Pope's resignation today, of course. ;-) I had been several times in Rome in the last decades, so it was touching for me. Good night to all of you.
Snow on the 18Z GFS for WC FL!
60HR


63HR


66HR


69HR
Last thing (and sorry if it was already posted by Aussi). In respect to Rusty Australia seems to have dodged a bullet:

Ex-cyclone Rusty causes Pilbara flooding

Date February 28, 2013 - 8:20PM

Read more


NWS Miami Disco

Could be up to a two week cold spell for south Florida...Sorry for the long post, but it is a good read.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME COLD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE SHORT RANGE MODEL PROBABILITIES ARE
SHOWING A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE PROBABILITIES FOR REST OF THE
CWA IS SHOWING A 70 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO COME
TO AN END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SKIES BECOMING CLEAR
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND MID 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT TEMPERATURES WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE COULD EVEN APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY. SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUN
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
POSSIBLE COLDER AIR TO THE AREA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE LOWS COULD FALL AGAIN
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK EXCEPT MID 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND HIGHS
COULD AGAIN BE IN THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
Wichita, Kansas received 2.45" of precipitation this month, though an overwhelming majority of it was in the form of snow. That's a little more than all of the precipitation the city has seen in the past 4 months.
our game player is in the left side of this image
Silver nano-particles screw up soil fertility while also causing the soil's Nitrous*Oxide emissions to rise.

* "...over a 100-year period, N2O has ~300 times more greenhouse-impact per unit weight than CO2."
This would be a nice way to end winter... unfortunately it's too long range to believe:


Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This would be a nice way to end winter... unfortunately it's too long range to believe:




it would be nice... but over 250hrs out..

Snow in Texas makes the news even if is to our west...maybe. :)



Something interesting Late Friday Night/Early Saturday Morning. There is an EXTREMELY LOW chance of snow flurries just off to our west. NO accumulations are expected.
Morning all....

Scott Bachmeier ‏@CIMSS_Satellite
VIIRS InfraRed images showing large ice leads (yellow/orange) opening up in the Beaufort Sea north of Alaska/Canada:

GeoffreyWPB... Not a big fan of the cold.....

______________
Hi there Australia
Prayers to the deputy that was shot and killed in St. Lucie Florida today... So sad, and so uncalled for... Made me cry. Gary Morales has two young daughters
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ENABLE CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE
ON MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE TO FILTER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES THROUGH...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO COOL RAPIDLY.
COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING...THE TUESDAY SYSTEM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE
OVERALL FOR THE CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE 1.5
PVU TROPOPAUSE MAP SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP WAVE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
FORCING...AS ABSOLUTE VORTICITY INCREASES IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
TIMING...HOWEVER THE EURO AND THE GFS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE WITH
THE OVERALL SETUP. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALSO LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...WITH DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS UP TO AT LEAST THE -15
DEGREE CELSIUS LAYER
. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE SOUNDINGS...COMBINED
WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING IN PLACE... AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20/59 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SWITCHING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST AND TRANSITIONING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...WILL ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW...AND LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE HWO.
There was a rare sight near Villajoyosa on the eastern coast of Spain today: twin waterspouts. The cyclones dissipated before damaging anything.

Interesting for sure.

California Facing Epic Lack of Precipitation

By Tom Yulsman | February 28, 2013 3:01 pm



The red colors tell the story of California's epic lack of precipitation since the beginning of the year. (Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center)

It has been really dry in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. Epically dry may not be an exaggeration.

The entire range has been suffering from lack of snowfall, with the snowpack now standing at just 66 percent of average. But snowpack in the northern Sierra plays a particularly important role in both state and federal water supply systems. And here, precipitation in January and February has been the lowest since modern record-keeping began in 1921.

...

... the sprawling Central Valley -- California's agricultural heartland, and one of the most important agricultural regions in the United States.

More than 230 crops are grown in the Central Valley. It comprises less than 1 percent of all U.S. farmland, yet as of 2002 (the last date for which I could find data), the value of its crops represented 8 percent of the nation's output.

This amazing productivity depends on irrigation. Some of that irrigation comes from ground water. But a huge amount comes from melt water flowing off the Sierra Nevada.

So if the snow doesn't start falling soon, and in copious quantities, the effects could ripple into the entire U.S. economy in the form of higher food prices.


http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2013/02/ 28/california-facing-epic-lack-of-precipitation/#. US_xyGt5mSM
SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0000Z 1 MAR 2013

TO: TSUNAMI WARNING FOCAL POINTS AND TSUNAMI NATIONAL
CONTACTS OF THE UNESCO/IOC INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI
WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM (IOTWS)

OTHER INTERNATIONAL RECIPIENTS OF PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER PRODUCTS FOR THE IOTWS

SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT

OTHER NWS PARTNERS AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM: ANDREW STERN
ACTING CHIEF...METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES DIVISION

SUBJECT: TERMINATION OF INTERIM ADVISORY SERVICE FOR TSUNAMIS
BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER TO COUNTRIES OF THE INDIAN
OCEAN, EFFECTIVE MARCH 31, 2013

BODY OF MESSAGE: THE INTERIM ADVISORY SERVICE FOR TSUNAMIS THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER TO
COUNTRIES OF THE INDIAN OCEAN SINCE 2005 FOLLOWING THE DECEMBER
26, 2004, INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI DISASTER WILL BE TERMINATED AS OF
MARCH 31, 2013, AT 0000 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC).
THIS
ACTION IS BEING TAKEN AT THE REQUEST OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL
COORDINATION GROUP FOR THE IOTWS IN RECOGNITION OF THE FACT THAT
THIS SERVICE CAN NOW BE PROVIDED FROM REGIONAL TSUNAMI SERVICE
PROVIDERS THAT HAVE BEEN STOOD UP WITHIN THE REGION BY
AUSTRALIA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA. THIS REQUEST WAS RECEIVED VIA
A LETTER DATED 18 JANUARY 2013 FROM THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY OF
THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION TO THE NWS ACTING
ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR.

THE FOLLOWING TWO PRODUCTS ARE TO BE TERMINATED:

TSUNAMI PRODUCT WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
--------------------------------- ------------ --------
TSUNAMI WATCH WEIO21 PHEB TSUIOX
TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN WEIO23 PHEB TIBIOX


TSUNAMI PRODUCTS FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN CAN NOW BE FOUND ON THE
FOLLOWING WEB PAGES:

AUSTRALIA - WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/TSUNAMI
INDIA - TSUNAMI.INCOIS.GOV.IN
INDONESIA - INATEWS.BMKG.GO.ID

FOR MORE INFORMATION OR COMMENTS ON THIS CHANGE, PLEASE CONTACT:

CHARLES MCCREERY
NOAA/NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
91-270 FORT WEAVER ROAD
EWA BEACH, HAWAII 96822
PHONE: 808-689-8207
EMAIL: CHARLES.MCCREERY@NOAA.GOV

NATIONAL SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE ONLINE AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/NOTIF.HTM

$$
Micro-meteoroid impacts take out satellites with EMPs
Tellingly, a massive ElectroMagneticPulse knocked out cell phones when the Chelyabinsk meteoroid hit...
...researchers fired tiny dust particles at targets resembling satellites at [closing] speeds of 60 kilometers per second. "We found that when these particles hit, they create a plasma or quasi-neutral gas of ions and electrons, and that plasma can then emit in the radio frequency range,"...
I got that tsunami message like half an hour ago ...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Snow in Texas makes the news even if is to our west...maybe. :)



Something interesting Late Friday Night/Early Saturday Morning. There is an EXTREMELY LOW chance of snow flurries just off to our west. NO accumulations are expected.


hahahaa oh that's ok though, even here in the UK, where snow is surely a bit more common than in Texas, that news would bring whatever region it affected to a halt! haha
Granted we don't get snow regularly enough to have readiness as say Minnesota or the far N/E states, but it still is a bit crazy at what happens when we get some! So no shame for big news for there"
Haruna showing a sign of life left..or maybe just a last gasp of convection..


Quoting aspectre:
Silver nano-particles screw up soil fertility while also causing the soil's Nitrous*Oxide emissions to rise.

* "...over a 100-year period, N2O has ~300 times more greenhouse-impact per unit weight than CO2."



This isn't true. I know gardeners that fertilize with colloidal silver & their plants are huge for it. It also clumps up as it comes in contact with the environment or anything else. Sludge isn't the best fertilizer out there, since they mixed it with that..maybe that's what is reducing growth. Sludge is also a variable because it doesn't always have the same make up. Duke Univ or not..this is not looking like good science.

Silver has been one of those relatively cheap ways to curb germs & their effects for 100s of years or longer.. Pure Iodine is illegal to have now. That article said they were targeting Titanium Dioxide next. The less elements & basic ingredients we can get our hands on, the less we can make & do for ourselves...
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


hahahaa oh that's ok though, even here in the UK, where snow is surely a bit more common than in Texas, that news would bring whatever region it affected to a halt! haha
Granted we don't get snow regularly enough to have readiness as say Minnesota or the far N/E states, but it still is a bit crazy at what happens when we get some! So no shame for big news for there"


Lol. I grew up in some snowy places. The rest of my family didn't. They get very excited when we get snow. We had flurries I think on Christmas eve in 2004. Then an even bigger snowfall in Dec 2008. At about 2 in the morning. Everyone took pictures of it before the sun came up and melted it all. The only thing that nobody around here likes is driving in the snow. We're almost as bad at that as we are driving in the ice. :)
Space X rocket leaving KSC for the ISS friday at 10:10est.


A Falcon 9 rocket is rolled out to the launch pad Thursday, February 28, 2013 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station that will be put in the vertical position before the scheduled launch Friday. (Red Huber, Orlando Sentinel / February 28, 2013)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. I grew up in some snowy places. The rest of my family didn't. They get very excited when we get snow. We had flurries I think on Christmas eve in 2004. Then an even bigger snowfall in Dec 2008. At about 2 in the morning. Everyone took pictures of it before the sun came up and melted it all. The only thing that nobody around here likes is driving in the snow. We're almost as bad at that as we are driving in the ice. :)


Haha! Yeah, I get excited as grew up in the Ca desert, so snow to me is an event! But infrastructure in the UK isn't up for big events and even smaller ones send everyone in a tizzy, albeit for various reasons! Driving on snow ok...on ice, best to just not though! Not just a lot of bad drivers here, but all the narrow roads too, all in all makes a scary place for driving when it does snow!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
California Facing Epic Lack of Precipitation

By Tom Yulsman | February 28, 2013 3:01 pm



The red colors tell the story of California's epic lack of precipitation since the beginning of the year. (Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center)

It has been really dry in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. Epically dry may not be an exaggeration.

The entire range has been suffering from lack of snowfall, with the snowpack now standing at just 66 percent of average. But snowpack in the northern Sierra plays a particularly important role in both state and federal water supply systems. And here, precipitation in January and February has been the lowest since modern record-keeping began in 1921.

...

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2013/02/ 28/california-facing-epic-lack-of-precipitation/#. US_xyGt5mSM
It has been painfully dry in Santa Barbara.

February, our wettest month, has seen just 0.05 inches of rainfall (we average 3.93 in based off 1981-2010 period). We average around 7.5 inches of rain for January and February combined. So far, January and February combined have seen around 2.0 of inches or roughly 25% of normal precipitation.

No rain is forecasted for the next 5 days.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
California Facing Epic Lack of Precipitation

By Tom Yulsman | February 28, 2013 3:01 pm



The red colors tell the story of California's epic lack of precipitation since the beginning of the year. (Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center)

It has been really dry in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. Epically dry may not be an exaggeration.

The entire range has been suffering from lack of snowfall, with the snowpack now standing at just 66 percent of average. But snowpack in the northern Sierra plays a particularly important role in both state and federal water supply systems. And here, precipitation in January and February has been the lowest since modern record-keeping began in 1921.

...

... the sprawling Central Valley -- California's agricultural heartland, and one of the most important agricultural regions in the United States.

More than 230 crops are grown in the Central Valley. It comprises less than 1 percent of all U.S. farmland, yet as of 2002 (the last date for which I could find data), the value of its crops represented 8 percent of the nation's output.

This amazing productivity depends on irrigation. Some of that irrigation comes from ground water. But a huge amount comes from melt water flowing off the Sierra Nevada.

So if the snow doesn't start falling soon, and in copious quantities, the effects could ripple into the entire U.S. economy in the form of higher food prices.


http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2013/02/ 28/california-facing-epic-lack-of-precipitation/#. US_xyGt5mSM


from living there and the water shortages then...seems like normal to me ;/ too much wastage for lawns in a dry region
CPC released an updated monthly outlook for March. Equal chances dominate the continental US. So this is a pretty inconclusive forecast. Just a sign of the uncertainty in how the pattern will evolve once the cold moves out of the East.

Below average temps for West Palm Beach for the next week...

On Now

The Barometer Bob Show for February 28, 2013.
My guests are Garrett Bastardi of FirstHandWeather.
Also, Gene Norman of GeneNormanWx.Com. - See more at: http://www.barometerbob.net/StormChatVideo.html
Quoting Skyepony:
Space X rocket leaving KSC for the ISS friday at 10:10est.


A Falcon 9 rocket is rolled out to the launch pad Thursday, February 28, 2013 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station that will be put in the vertical position before the scheduled launch Friday. (Red Huber, Orlando Sentinel / February 28, 2013)
What does Space rocket X plan to do? Think that it will be another hole in the atmosphere, don't know.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Euro actually takes it east also. Looks good at 168 hours:



But off it goes at 192 hours:



I'm not sold on such an eastward track though. Expect the models to trend north, maybe not enough to give us a major storm up here, but definitely not straight east like many of the models are saying now.


With the storm still in the Pacific, the models probably dont have a full picture/understanding of what's happening. When it comes ashore in Canada we'll get a better idea of what it might/will do, but it is definitely a possible storm to watch.
Quoting Skyepony:
Haruna showing a sign of life left..or maybe just a last gasp of convection..





This isn't true. I know gardeners that fertilize with colloidal silver & their plants are huge for it. It also clumps up as it comes in contact with the environment or anything else. Sludge isn't the best fertilizer out there, since they mixed it with that..maybe that's what is reducing growth. Sludge is also a variable because it doesn't always have the same make up. Duke Univ or not..this is not looking like good science.

Silver has been one of those relatively cheap ways to curb germs & their effects for 100s of years or longer.. Pure Iodine is illegal to have now. That article said they were targeting Titanium Dioxide next. The less elements & basic ingredients we can get our hands on, the less we can make & do for ourselves...
NOT, this is expensive. Organic is the way to go. Sludge is human excrement... not recommended for home gardeners even IF it is free. Many 'bagged' so called 'Organic' also have the sludge.


PS: Colloidal silver may be the new 'Lead' of the future. I would strongly advocate not using it.
159. BtnTx
Quoting AussieStorm:
On Now

The Barometer Bob Show for February 28, 2013.
My guests are Garrett Bastardi of FirstHandWeather.
Also, Gene Norman of GeneNormanWx.Com. - See more at: http://www.barometerbob.net/StormChatVideo.html
wow i am watching and there are a whopping 22 now 23 viewers!
160. BtnTx
Quoting BtnTx:
wow i am watching and there are a whopping 22 now 23 viewers!
off season - new Swamp People on History channel
161. etxwx
Drought-starved habitat, snow hit Kansas wildlife hard
Michael Pearce | Wichita Eagle via McClatchy
Thursday, February 28, 2013

Excerpt: Never easy on wildlife, these deep snows come after two years of extreme drought that had already left the landscape lacking food for wildlife, said Jim Pitman, Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism small game biologist. Pre-storm cover was already barely thick enough to offer protection from predators and the elements.

In the long run, the moisture could help rebuild habitat lost to the drought. But for now, the one-two punch of poor habitat and the smothering snow doesn’t bode well for many animals, Pitman said, and could be especially deadly for some prairie birds.


Complete article here.
162. txjac
Quoting etxwx:
Drought-starved habitat, snow hit Kansas wildlife hard
Michael Pearce | Wichita Eagle via McClatchy
Thursday, February 28, 2013

Excerpt: Never easy on wildlife, these deep snows come after two years of extreme drought that had already left the landscape lacking food for wildlife, said Jim Pitman, Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism small game biologist. Pre-storm cover was already barely thick enough to offer protection from predators and the elements.

In the long run, the moisture could help rebuild habitat lost to the drought. But for now, the one-two punch of poor habitat and the smothering snow doesn’t bode well for many animals, Pitman said, and could be especially deadly for some prairie birds.


Complete article here.


That is so sad
Drought just won't quit :(

Drought takes its toll on a Texas business and a town

PLAINVIEW, Tex. — After two years of drought, people are starting to leave this parched West Texas town.

The lack of significant rainfall has slowed the rush of cattle that came to the largest employer here, a beef processing plant that employed 2,300 people in a town of 22,343. When the plant shut this month, it took with it an annual payroll of $55.5 million.

Drought has Texas farmers wary of cashing in on corn
By Lynn Brezosky | February 25, 2013

SAN ANTONIO - Coastal Bend farmer Charles Ring would love to join the nation's breadbasket's rush to plant corn, but like other Texas farmers, he just can't count on the rain.

And since the insurers won't back the gamble either, he's cutting corn acreage in half, bucking the trend.

"If I had my choice, if we had deep, good moisture, I'd be planting more corn," he said. "You have to go in and disperse your risk across more crops."
My friend Aussie...I have the new wind scale for all of you

Im uploading it right now... tell me what anyone thinks
Well, we have a Fire over here in the river bottom. The news said it was 1/2 mile long. I can see the smoke from my back yard. It is probably a mile East and a mile South. I can see 3-4 helecopters. Most of which are probably News Choppers. I didn't see any water drops on the News, put I was told they did some earlier. They said 50 acres and zero containment. This is near Rancho Jurupa park in Jurupa Valley, CA.

Fire
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
My friend Aussie...I have the new wind scale for all of you

Im uploading it right now... tell me what anyone thinks


Again... not all the knot readings are 100% correctly converted into mph... I had to intentionally make subtle changes.. click on the image for a larger view

Quoting JustPlantIt:
What does Space rocket X plan to do? Think that it will be another hole in the atmosphere, don't know.


The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will be carrying the Dragon capsule to the International Space Station on a critical resupply mission. It's the only way for scientific experiments to be returned from the ISS to Earth for research since the end of the shuttle program.
from my NWS office
Climate Change Quiz

From Christian Science Monitor
much more than I thought for Northern Maine

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7
AM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.
NOAA.gov

apparently this soccer ball made a voyage from Japan to Alaska driven by the powerful tsunami after the 9.0 quake of 311/11 that hit offshore Sendai, Japan...

Is there anybody out there.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Is there anybody out there.


ah, Pink Floyd. Sorry Pedley, have homework to do after having a band concert.

No idea where everyone else is.
Tornado activity may ramp up quite a bit as we head into late March. The NAO/AO are forecast to [finally] head back towards the positive phase, while the PNA trends towards negative. If you extrapolate, it also appears the MJO will be reaching octants 2/3 by the end of next month, both of which favor significant tornado activity; many of the United States' largest outbreaks coincided with phase 2.

We'll see...but this is just a reminder that 'real' tornado season is right around the corner.

On the subject of tornado forecasts, Mark Ellinwood--an operational meteorologist with EarthSat--has released his thoughts regarding the 2013 tornado season.

Near normal tornado activity is forecast

Personally, given the track record so far this year and the way things look for March/April, I would bet on the season being slightly above average. But that's just me.

...and a random tornado picture just to round things off:

Quoting Astrometeor:


ah, Pink Floyd. Sorry Pedley, have homework to do after having a band concert.

No idea where everyone else is.

I guess everyone turned in for the night.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
What does Space rocket X plan to do? Think that it will be another hole in the atmosphere, don't know.



Here is the plan

Link
Cody, how much snow do you think I will get? Here's the part of the discussion from my NWS for Friday and Saturday. I am 10 miles to the north of Nashville.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH ACTUAL TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOVEMENT ACROSS THE MID STATE. BUT AS OF THIS TIME...
THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BORDER...TO AROUND ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE HIGHLAND RIM AND LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
BORDER. AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
MAY RANGE FROM TWO INCHES...TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING
THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tornado activity may ramp up quite a bit as we head into late March. The NAO/AO are forecast to [finally] head back towards the positive phase, while the PNA trends towards negative. If you extrapolate, it also appears the MJO will be reaching octants 2/3 by the end of next month, both of which favor significant tornado activity; many of the United States' largest outbreaks coincided with phase 2.

We'll see...but this is just a reminder that 'real' tornado season is right around the corner.

On the subject of tornado forecasts, Mark Ellinwood%u2013an operational meteorologist with EarthSat%u2013has released his thoughts regarding the 2013 tornado season.

Near normal tornado activity is forecast

Personally, given the track record so far this year and the way things look for March/April, I would bet on the season being slightly above average. But that's just me.

...and a random tornado picture just to round things off:



Joe Bastardi disagrees...

From his Twitter page

"March tornado activity this year below normal. ECMWF continues cold regime through 20th. GFS ensembles at war with Ecmwf and now, CGEM"

Link
Quoting Chucktown:


Joe Bastardi disagrees...

From his Twitter page

"March tornado activity this year below normal. ECMWF continues cold regime through 20th. GFS ensembles at war with Ecmwf and now, CGEM"

Link


Joe?...I have to check out what he has been up to lately...
Quoting Astrometeor:
Cody, how much snow do you think I will get? Here's the part of the discussion from my NWS for Friday and Saturday. I am 10 miles to the north of Nashville.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH ACTUAL TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOVEMENT ACROSS THE MID STATE. BUT AS OF THIS TIME...
THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BORDER...TO AROUND ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE HIGHLAND RIM AND LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
BORDER. AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
MAY RANGE FROM TWO INCHES...TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING
THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU.

Snow will probably start in your area early tomorrow, probably 8-9 am. While it should snow most of the day, moisture and forcing isn't particularly impressive, so it will fall moderately at best. Because highs are expected to rise above the freezing mark, and this storm isn't expected to drop a ton of heavy, wet snow, a lot that falls will probably end up melting or only sticking for a short period of time. The snow should exit about 24 hours after starting, or sometime around 7-9 am Sunday morning. As for accumulations, I'd say the NWS there is being a tad bullish. An inch at best.
Quoting Chucktown:


Joe Bastardi disagrees...

From his Twitter page

"March tornado activity this year below normal. ECMWF continues cold regime through 20th. GFS ensembles at war with Ecmwf and now, CGEM"

Link

I'm not disagreeing with him. Because cold air will dominate much of the USA next month with a trough in the East and ridging in the West, we probably won't see much tornado activity and will drop below average. Though we may end up below average as a month, I expect a big ramp-up by late March, and especially April.
Fire update: 20% contained. Location 1 1/2-2 East of Riverside Airport.
2 miles SE of my location and on the other side of the river. There is a
mandatory evacuation on 2 streets closest to the fire. Some power poles
have caught fire and some wire are down or close to being so. Looking
much better than it was earlier on the news.
Aussie left me hanging here.....
So, my cat is inside right now since it is chilly outdoors, and we were turning on our gas fireplace while we wait on parts for our heat...

My father was turning on the gas, and my cat's eyes were getting bigger and bigger as he watched the flames begin to appear, and then pop into a full fire within the fireplace.

^Pretty funny to see, cat had no idea what was going on.
Bedtime Here. Stay Safe All - Stay Warm - Sleep Well
187. vis0

Quoting Chucktown:


Joe Bastardi disagrees...

From his Twitter page

"March tornado activity this year below normal. ECMWF continues cold regime through 20th. GFS ensembles at war with Ecmwf and now, CGEM"

Link
With all the respect to the professionals, Activity & severity are not the same, careful and stay in touch with sites as this (WXU) where your not just told what compu'rs spit out but observations on the ground.
188. vis0
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not disagreeing with him. Because cold air will dominate much of the USA next month with a trough in the East and ridging in the West, we probably won't see much tornado activity and will drop below average. Though we may end up below average as a month, I expect a big ramp-up by late March, and especially April.


MY OPINION, but when one reads colder air still around or dominant, IF the next air mass or the replenishing air is slightly cooler AND FEEDS CONTINUOUSLY THE SAME AREA with cooler air. Then what was the colder air BECOMES warmer as the continuously cooler air wedges under it (cooler air thus heavier wedges under OLD cold air)thus one can still see tornadic activity, as to nature its the amount of cubic difference as to mass, weight & direction not where the individual difference begins and ends.
GFS showing snow for SW Florida
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:42 AM WST March 1 2013
========================

At 11:00 AM WST, a low [11U] was located in the monsoon trough near 15S 102E and is moving eastwards. Conditions are unfavorable for development therefore this low is not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone.
Happy March everyone... if it got there already
I urge all of you to find a gloomier forecast. :)

(This is where I live, by the way.)

I got this in an email this evening and I thought some folks here would be interested. It is very worthwhile. You will have to register if are not registered already. I went through the material and learned a lot about the limitations of the current GOES imaging system and how the ABI will be a great improvement.

Greetings,

The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of the new module "GOES-R ABI: Next Generation Satellite Imaging". This one-hour module focuses on the next generation GOES-R ABI 16-channel imager to be launched this decade. With increased spectral coverage, higher spatial resolution, more frequent imaging, and improved image pixel geolocation and radiometric performance, the ABI will bring significant improvements to forecasting, numerical weather prediction, and climate and environmental monitoring. The first part of the module introduces the ABI's key features and improvements over earlier GOES imagers. The second section lets users interactively explore the ABI's 16 channels. The third section contains movies that show the improvements that the ABI will bring to the following application areas: convection, flooding, wildfires, land cover, hurricanes, climate, air quality, aviation, coastal and marine, and fog and low visibility. The final section contains additional resources pertaining to the ABI. The module has numerous takeaways, including ten application movies and an interactive spectrum.

Please follow this link to the MetEd description page that provides additional information and a link to begin the module: GOES-R ABI: Next Generation Satellite Imaging.
(https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id =987)

This module uses JavaScript so please ensure that your browser is updated to the latest version, with JavaScript enabled. For technical support for the module, please visit our Registration and Support FAQs at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/resources_faq.php

Locally here in Melbourne, Harris Corporation has a part in the overall GOES-R program working on the ground segment of the data acquisition. A few years ago before the contract was even awarded I was pushing to get on project, I met the team but it really wasn't a good fit. I am happy for the project leader who worked so hard to get the award and the rest of his team, it is going to be a great advance over what we have currently.
Good morning to all and evening to Aussie. A dry and warm weekend for the NE Caribbean islands is on tap.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI MAR 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 25-35 PERCENT BELOW
NORMAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO 60 WEST. IN THIS
PATTERN...NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT...
MOISTURE WILL THEN START TO SURGE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER
EASTERN HISPANOLA...MONA PASSAGE AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKENING AND VEERING OF THE TRADES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING
MAINLY THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJSJ 01/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE NNW SWELL FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 71 84 73 / 0 0 0 0
STT 84 72 83 74 / 10 0 0 10
Good morning!

Good evening Aussie!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This would be a nice way to end winter... unfortunately it's too long range to believe:



make it another 2 foot blizzard, and mother nature's snow debt to me incurred after last non winter will be paid.
Good morning, everyoe. Evening, Aussie. A chilly 38 degrees here, with a high of about 55 later on. It didn't warm up much yesterday as it said it would, so we'll see. And it's March! I love 1 March. Ir means Spring is here - the last stretch of the school year.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: egg cassarole, bacon and sausage, french toast and yogurt. Enjoy!
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is PERKED ENJOY..HAVE A GREAT DAY EVERYONE
cool today,cold this weekend but No Freeze by me....
7-day for Tampa Bay area.............
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

make it another 2 foot blizzard, and mother nature's snow debt to me incurred after last non winter will be paid.

Good morning. As I predicted last night, models are trending north. Still too far south for a big NE storm, more of a grazing right now, but going the right direction for a hit. One way or another, it's gonna be a beast of a storm, even if it doesn't hit here.

Have a great Friday all! Half-day of school for me today :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
What Makes This Temperature Map Interesting?



It is a simple yet monumental thing if you are a warm weather lover! If you notice in this map the coldest temps I can find on this map are in So. Canada (you can see the key on the upper left) and not one single one is below zero!! This is HUGE if you are anxious for the air to start warming. What this is showing me is that the massive area of cold air that has been to the north the last 6 weeks is starting to break. Also climatologically this is the time of year that we start to warm up

Our drought is over:







13.62 inches in December of 2009 still stands.

Here at my location, my February rainfall total is 13.29 inches. Here are some other Precipitation Totals for February across Georgia

Albany - 8.77 inches
Athens - 7.66 inches
Atlanta - 9.02 inches
Augusta - 9.40 inches
Columbus - 13.51 inches
Macon - 13.75 inches
Savannah - 9.75 inches
Valdosta - 5.39 inches

Words say it all, Drought Monitor says some relief!
really, pools full, and they say some relief, give me a break!
I'M AWAKE! Just barely. G'mornin folks. They took the flurries outta my forecast. sigh... Coffee! Yea!

41F on da Bayou.
senator rubio voting against disaster relief?????? wheres he from? he:s too busy looking into a mirror thinking hes going to be president to understand the importance of this vote. watch out miami if you get hurt.
Re 207 big yawwwwnnnnn. Too early for this and waaaayyyy off topic.
rubio so young that he does not remember what if andrew went 20miles north?
Everyone have a great Friday. Aussie, have a great Saturday!
MetEd post today


Topic: Training Module on GOES-R ABI6 Comet Program



Training Module Link

The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of the new module "GOES-R ABI: Next Generation Satellite Imaging". This one-hour module focuses on the next generation GOES-R ABI 16-channel imager to be launched this decade. With increased spectral coverage, higher spatial resolution, more frequent imaging, and improved image pixel geolocation and radiometric performance, the ABI will bring significant improvements to forecasting, numerical weather prediction, and climate and environmental monitoring. The first part of the module introduces the ABI's key features and improvements over earlier GOES imagers. The second section lets users interactively explore the ABI's 16 channels. The third section contains movies that show the improvements that the ABI will bring to the following application areas: convection, flooding, wildfires, land cover, hurricanes, climate, air quality, aviation, coastal and marine, and fog and low visibility. The final section contains additional resources pertaining to the ABI. The module has numerous takeaways, including ten application movies and an interactive spectrum.

Please follow this link to the MetEd description page that provides additional information and a link to begin the module: GOES-R ABI: Next Generation Satellite Imaging. (https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id =987)
212. MahFL
With the quiet weather, Steph on TWC has resorted to singing and dancing.......
213. MahFL
Quoting islander101010:
senator rubio voting against disaster relief?????? wheres he from? he:s too busy looking into a mirror thinking hes going to be president to understand the importance of this vote. watch out miami if you get hurt.


Did he drink some more water ?
Shockingly-powerful new camera


Kim Komando Article




Meet ARGUS. It's a new technology made for government spy planes that uses a 1.8 gigapixel sensor! It's so detailed it could see what smartphone you have from 20,000 feet away.

This was the scene in Harrisburg, Illinois a year ago as a violent, and high-end, EF4 moved through the city during the pre-dawn hours:



A total of 8 were killed, but many more were injured. This tornado was just one of 42 that touched down across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley between February 28-29, 2012.

A larger tornado outbreak would be lurking around the corner, on March 2.
Good Morning All..
Beautiful sunrise again this am..




NWS forecast for tomorrow morning..
Includes my area..

Quoting islander101010:
senator rubio voting against disaster relief?????? wheres he from? he:s too busy looking into a mirror thinking hes going to be president to understand the importance of this vote. watch out miami if you get hurt.


Source??
Link??
Morning folks! Very, very powerful eruption of Etna yesterday. Watch it on Youtube (embedding is forbidden, unfortunately). Have a nice day!

Link

Edit (from Sky News):
Mount Etna has dramatically erupted, sending a huge stream of ash high into the air from one of its central craters, Voragine.

The volcano, which stands 3,329 metres (11,000 feet) above eastern Sicily, is almost constantly active.

The current series of violent bursts, known as paroxysms, began on Februrary 19.

By Saturday, 800m (2,600ft) high fountains of bright orange lava were spewing out of Bocca Nuova, another of Etna's central craters.

Despite the enormous clouds of ash, flights in and out of nearby Catania airport have not been disrupted.

Astronaut Chris Hadfield, aboard the International Space Station, captured the volcano on camera earlier this week.

The Canadian and his ISS crewmates had been tweeting a selection of stunning images of the Earth from space when they passed over Etna as it was spewing ash and steam.
Good Morning!

Drought has been wiped out across the FL Panhandle but C and S FL still need rain very bad as we have had one of the warmest winters in history. Many days so far this year in Orlando around 90 which is very unusual so early in the year.

Polar Navy (Raster) background in wundermap needs to remove large legend squares, like the one for the Mississippi map that covers all of NE Florida including Jacksonville and the mouth of the St. Johns River.

Nice Drought map Scott.
Great news long term for the Midwest.

He is presumed dead how is that lol??
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Now that's a bad day. LOL!
Enjoy this as this maybe the last time we see these temps for about 8 to 9 months.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
He is presumed dead how is that lol??


I didn't know he was presumed dead but either way a very day for that guy.
Live webcast for the Space X Dragon launch to the International Space Station has begun. No technical issues. Weather is 80% go. Launch is at 10:10am est.
232. VR46L
Some interesting Clouds seem to be feeding in from the Pacific

Nuclear event in France.. Well sorta the plant is falling apart..radiation still contained..

Two people have died and one is seriously injured after an accident at Cattenom nuclear power station located in Moselle, according to police sources. The accident occurred on Thursday shortly after 5pm at the central nuclear reactor building. Unit 4 had been closed to allow for a ten-year safety inspection and maintenance check. According to early witness accounts part of a platform and ladder broke off and fell four metres onto workers. The victims are thought to be from two different companies providing inspection and maintenance services. Managers of the site underline that it is not a nuclear accident and there is no risk to surrounding communities. La central de Cattenom, close to the border with Germany has 4 reactors of one thousand and 300 megawatts each and is number 7 in the world.

Quoting VR46L:
Some interesting Clouds seem to be feeding in from the Pacific



MJO. Also this negative NAO is beginning to warm the "eastern" equatorial Pacific waters.



235. VR46L
The 06z GFS snow doesn't get far south and Zip for florida

GFS Snow cast Twisterdata
Quoting VR46L:
The 06z GFS snow doesn't get far south and Zip for florida

GFS Snow cast Twisterdata


Sun angle too high now for snow to even be mentioned for FL. Also of note with this cold snap over the weekend there is going to be a thick cloud deck in place keeping temps much warmer than some might think for Sunday Night.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Drought has been wiped out across the FL Panhandle but C and S FL still need rain very bad as we have had one of the warmest winters in history. Many days so far this year in Orlando around 90 which is very unusual so early in the year.




Not just one of the warmest, you forget the rainfall has been nearly non-existent. It might be the "dry" season but average rain during these months is still 2.5 to 3.5 per month.
238. VR46L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


MJO. Also this negative NAO is beginning to warm the "eastern" equatorial Pacific waters.





Could it be a sign of an early start to the E-PAC season ?
Good Morning guys

In the 50's in WPB and no sun!
242. VR46L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Sun angle too high now for snow to even be mentioned for FL. Also of note with this cold snap over the weekend there is going to be a thick cloud deck in place keeping temps much warmer than some might think for Sunday Night.



I was shocked to see it on yesterdays runs for Tampa ! LOL
Good Morning..beautiful day here in eastern NC-thought this was interesting on how far the 540 line is and where the moisture is..

JMA Model
48 hours


72 hours


Not for me in Loxahatchee, Florida i got rain for the lest 5 days now and one day i got 2 inch and maybe got up to 4 inch in the lest 5 days!:)
Quoting Jedkins01:



Not just one of the warmest, you forget the rainfall has been nearly non-existent. It might be the "dry" season but average rain during these months is still 2.5 to 3.5 per month.
Floridians seemed press to get snow.If I can't get none they defientely can't either.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Floridians seemed press to get snow.If I can't get none they defientely can't either.


why not? You live in the Mid Atlantic right?
There are chances for a major NE snowstorm next week
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Brandon sinkhole: 37-year-old man Florida man swallowed by sinkhole that opened under his bedroom

Talk about having a bad day. Of all the ways to die too...
more snow for the snow-weary

Miami NWS Discussion

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECREASING TREND
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES
THAT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE ARRAY OF
AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR COULD REACH
THE UPPER 30S AND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING COULD REACH THE MID TO
UPPER THIRTIES. OF COURSE STILL NEED TO STRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES
BUT THE LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE INDICATES A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR FREEZING MONDAY MORNING IN GLADES
COUNTY...BUT THERE IS SOME OUTLIER GUIDANCE INDICATING NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS COULD BE AN ISSUE
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER THIRTIES POSSIBLE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ON EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW FORTY DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. BY TUESDAY A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST.

For West Palm Beach...

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


why not? You live in the Mid Atlantic right?
There are chances for a major NE snowstorm next week
Yes.But when you think about the pathetic snow total of 1.5" at R.N.A and then Florida getting snow then we have a problem..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.But when you think about the pathetic snow total of 1.5" at R.N.A and then Florida getting snow then we have a problem..


shall this winter deceive you then...
@ Pcola57

Would you please us today with one of those great astronomy pictures of yours?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.But when you think about the pathetic snow total of 1.5" at R.N.A and then Florida getting snow then we have a problem..


Washington doesn't deserve ANYTHING, I rest my case
254. eddye
so are still having another strong cold front moving in next late week like wat it said yesterday
4 minutes til launch of Space X Dragon-9 to ISS. Watch live here. Got my camera ready.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Washington doesn't deserve ANYTHING, I rest my case
You live on the Texas coast right?.You don't live in Florida..And yes we do deserve snow in this barren cloudy winter.So many promises and so little to show for.
257. txjac
Quoting Skyepony:
4 minutes til launch of Space X Dragon-9 to ISS. Watch live here. Got my camera ready.


Was awesome to see
and LIFT OFF!!!!









(Storm produces the Yellow in NJ NYC CT area):


(note the low and strong 850mb winds in NE on ecmwf )






And finally this strange trough and warmth at 240hrs, note the LLJ in the southern mississippi valley):
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Sun angle too high now for snow to even be mentioned for FL. Also of note with this cold snap over the weekend there is going to be a thick cloud deck in place keeping temps much warmer than some might think for Sunday Night.



I have to disagree with you on this. Or maybe you are just saying that the forecast cannot be expected to mention snow for this specific event? If so, then I would not disagree with that, necessarily.

However, the high March sun angle does NOT preclude to possibility of snow occurring in Florida in March, per se. After all, it has happened before and on several occasions. The most notable instance was during the March, 1993 Superstorm, when several inches of accumulation was observed in parts of the Panhandle and snow showers were experienced in various parts of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:






(Storm produces the Yellow in NJ NYC CT area):


(note the low and strong 850mb winds in NE on ecmwf )






And finally this strange trough and warmth at 240hrs, note the LLJ in the southern mississippi valley):



Models have been consistant in showing a very significant severe wx event around March 10th. Something to watch going forward.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
more snow for the snow-weary



I doubt we see those amounts. It would have to fall at night as for anything to fall during the day temperatures would have to be well below freezing to in order for it to accumulate. It's definitely happened before up here but usually falls at night to get anything significant.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I have to disagree with you on this. Or maybe you are just saying that the forecast cannot be expected to mention snow for this specific event? If so, then I would not disagree with that, necessarily.

However, the high March sun angle does NOT preclude to possibility of snow occurring in Florida in March, per se. After all, it has happened before and on several occasions. The most notable instance was during the March, 1993 Superstorm, when several inches of accumulation was observed in parts of the Panhandle and snow showers were experienced in various parts of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula.


That was followed by an Arctic Blast not the case this time. Gulf is very warm for this time of year and with WNW winds being so strong then I would right off any chance of snow occuring in FL (except the for NW Panhandle) maybe has a 5% chance of seeing something.
I have a important meeting next Wenseday.When is this non factor of a storm going to come into he picture?.


I ask you guys because I see hypuweather and the market channel(TWC) already has doom and gloom for my area.Hypuweather is already saying to prepare for a all out blizzard.lololol.
HE SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB.
THIS IS WHY THE PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES FROM LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO CREATE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO GRASSY AREAS AND ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE
SNOW WILL MELT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN ONE-HALF
INCH IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO 32 DEGREES AND LESS MELTING
WILL OCCUR.
Flurriies/ Light Snow on the loose:
Is wash rooting for the CMC?:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That was followed by an Arctic Blast not the case this time. Gulf is very warm for this time of year and with WNW winds being so strong then I would right off any chance of snow occuring in FL (except the for NW Panhandle) maybe has a 5% chance of seeinf something.


OK, I would agree with that assessment, just wanted to clarify whether you were speaking of this upcoming event specifically or for the month of March in general.

You also mentioned a bit earlier how warm this winter has been. One big reason for this is that we have not had a single Arctic blast where a big trough set up in the Eastern US and a full-blown Arctic air mass drained southward through the CONUS. Instead, most of the earlier cold events had the heart of the Arctic air mass shunting off to the east over the Northern US, leaving us here in Florida with just the fringe effects. It is rare to go through an entire winter here without experiencing the full effects of at least one major Arctic outbreak.
Interesting setup over the Bahamas today... the wx is nasty, quite unlike March for us...



Not much change expected before Tuesday....