WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Last tropical cyclone of the year?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:02 PM GMT on December 21, 2006

Tropical Cyclone Bondo, a major Category 3 storm, is battering the Seychelles Islands between Madagascar and Mozambique today. I expect Bondo will be the final major tropical cyclone of 2006, which has been an active year for intense storms world-wide. Bondo brings the tally of major (Category 3, 4 and 5) tropical cyclones to 29 for the year. The global average for such storms is 24, and the record, 30. This year has also seen 21 Category 4 and 5 cyclones, which is well above the average of 17, but quite a bit short of the record of 25. Bondo is expected to pass very close to Dzaoudzi in the Comoros Islands near 12 UTC on Friday, and is expected to pass between Madagascar and the African coast over the weekend, and possibly strike the northern Madagascar coast as a powerful Category 3 or 4 storm early next week.


Figure 1. Visible image of Tropical Cyclone Bondo taken by NASA's Terra satellite on December 20 at 0635 UTC.

I'll be back Friday with a new blog.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters
Thanks Dr.Masters hopefully this will be it for intence storms for a while.
Thanks.

I wonder what the total number of storms is and how the percentage of intense storms compares to the total number of storms, as in this graph:



Also, the GFS develops another storm in the Indian Ocean:


The CPC's MJO update is a good read, especially the last few pages, which indicate that conditions are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the southern Indian Ocean. Next week, it shifts towards the east, including eastern Australia.
Yeah, I look forward to the winter when the research seems to come forth. Ran across this spreadsheet I hadn't seen before comparing SST to Power Dissipation in the Atl.
Particularly interesting was the jump in power when the SST in F reached 80.7.
Well this is funny. ...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF W OF 88W WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER JUST OFF THE
TEXAS COAST TO A 12 MB LOW JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT AND
W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA ALONG
27N92W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND S FLORIDA TO OFF THE SE US COAST.
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE E
PACIFIC REGION TO OVER THE FAR W GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE FAR SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS
You're right King....thats one hell of a low.
Bondo appears to be very ill... yet NRL now has it at 115 kts, 927 mb (presumely before it collapsed):





Take a look at the SSD page:

21/1430 UTC 9.4S 50.6E T1.0/5.5 05S -- South Indian Ocean
Looks its weaking and will probably just continue to at a good clip.
Nearing La Nina by August.
Link
Yes HurricaneKing thats a little low - Texans would be exploding.

That system is a good watch, the low should move into open water between the Texas/Mexico border and the Bay of Campeche then track along the coast and pass over Florida Christmas day (just south of the big bend area according to GFS.)


BTW: there is a STRONG storm that may have produced a Tornado earlier heading for Biloxi
The 10day GFSx showing the Xmas storm...Link
The earlier Tornado warning was for St.Bernard and Plaquemines Parish....in SE Louisiana..Not BILOXI! Link
Heres the WARNING from EARLIER Link
The LOCAL radar now...Link
Seemed like a very slow tropical season in the Atlantic but guess they were just popping up elsewhere.

Florida Keys Fishing
You can see some rotation in the low creeping up the Mexican Gulf coast. It doesnt seem to have a strong surface low associated with it (yet?) The closest weather station is just on shore at Tampico Airport. Nothing to see really.


The area of severe weather nearing Biloxi seems to have dissipated slightly over water although they put a severe storm watch box just onshore from it. The gulf is running cool there. It could flare up as it moves over land and on towards Mobile.
Regarding:

12 MB LOW JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

There is a 1012 mb low on the surface map.

I suspect they are just abbrvg wi obvus.
OK if you zoom in and rock the Vis loop and set the speed to below half way you can see what I guess is an upper lever low along the Mexican coast and above that the surface low(s) leaving land and moving east onto the water.
Hey Y'all! Can't stay today because my family is hosting a christmas party today and I am being used as free labor to prepare. To complicate matters, there are some severe, hail-producing storms on the way. Here are two radar loops of my area, one with and the other without lightning.





The N7 storm with hail looks like it will pass directly over my house.
Buoys were interesting. Wish they all worked.
Chances of Hail in certain storms.

ID Max Top VIL Chance of Severe Hail Chance of Hail Max Hail Size Speed Direction (from)
W7 69 dBZ 25,000 ft. 40 kg/m 60% 70% 1.25 in. 30 knots SSW (195)

K5 66 dBZ 28,000 ft. 42 kg/m 70% 90% 1.50 in. 24 knots WSW (237)

X8 66 dBZ 29,000 ft. 45 kg/m 60% 80% 1.25 in. 35 knots SW (232)

D0 64 dBZ 33,000 ft. 48 kg/m 70% 90% 1.50 in. 34 knots SW (228)

N7 62 dBZ 31,000 ft. 41 kg/m 20% 80% 0.75 in. 45 knots WSW (244)


The N7 storm has an 80% cance of hail. That is bad, considering our roof hasn't been properly repaired since the last time it hailed (in May).
Atleast max size is .75" instead of the inch & a half, like 2 others of those. Lightning looks thick with it.
At least the estimated hail size is only .75 inches (currently). I do know what hail can do; in 2001, the costliest hail storm in history occurred right in my area (although, I don't consider hail to be very dangerous, unlike high winds or tornadoes - watch out if it shows a TVS for N&).
Still, N7 looks like a rather fat storm, and M9 and W7 look to be moving my way too, and W7 has a max hail size of 1.25". Good thing the center of W7 will move just to the east of my house. The same can't be said about N7, though.
I have often noticed that hail size is generally larger than what actually falls; for example, I have had storms with >4" hail (the largest that it will estimate) pass over me with no hail at all (that I could see).
Hail can be very damaging, STL. I've seen it's damage first-hand (unlike most severe weather), and I definately don't a ball of ice almost an inch in diamiter in free-fall to hit me in the head. It's very similar to raining golf-balls or baseballs, and I definately know the damage of baseballs. I have broken countless things with baseballs.
You have to be near the centeral updraft of the storm to get the biggest hail.
I know; the storm in 2001 caused over $2 billion in damage; I remember seeing piles of hail on the ground the next day (the largest hail was to the north).

I have broken countless things with baseballs.

LOL... Luckily, I have never gotten hail that big.
In my experience, high winds have been by far the worst severe weather from thunderstorms (possibly because of what I had this year).
Here is a link to the VERY DENSE HOUSTON TRAFFIC CAM SYSTEM

Boy - I would hate to be stuck in that mess during a bad storm.
N7 appears to be passing to the north of me. The next storm of central interest--the hail-producing storm called X8.
Traffic: normal

Weather: not normal
1900,now that I know you live in the Galvelston area,I finally understand the meaning behind your handle.
Looks like bad storms for Houston
N7 is bowing.
Chances of Hail in certain storms.

ID Max Top VIL Chance of Severe Hail Chance of Hail Max Hail Size Speed Direction (from)
W7 69 dBZ 25,000 ft. 40 kg/m 60% 70% 1.25 in. 30 knots SSW (195)

K5 66 dBZ 28,000 ft. 42 kg/m 70% 90% 1.50 in. 24 knots WSW (237)

X8 66 dBZ 29,000 ft. 45 kg/m 60% 80% 1.25 in. 35 knots SW (232)

D0 64 dBZ 33,000 ft. 48 kg/m 70% 90% 1.50 in. 34 knots SW (228)

N7 62 dBZ 31,000 ft. 41 kg/m 20% 80% 0.75 in. 45 knots WSW (244)


X8 is worse than N7...
Be back shortly.
Some of the SW cams look like a nighttime storm its so dark.
Possible tornado just NW of Biloxi

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 246 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SAUCIER...
OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTH OF WIGGINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
One report of golfball size hail so far, in KENEDY KARNES TX.
Tornado warning... that means that things are getting more serious, especially considering what tornadoes have done this year.
A severe weather event is possible in Florida on christmas. see more info on my blog or on

Florida Weather
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 879...

VALID 212022Z - 212145Z

THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
HOUSTON AREA EWD TO AROUND BATON ROUGE LA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3
HOURS. A NEW WW IS BEING ISSUED EAST OF WW 879 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A COUPLE OF ROTATING STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING WEST OF THE
HOUSTON AREA. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE HOUSTON AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF DRYER AIR IN THE HOUSTON AREA
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS MOVE
EWD THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD EXPAND EWD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MOVING ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR INTO THE LAKE CHARLES AND BATON ROUGE AREAS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY AS A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRIFT EWD
ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA. A TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT IN SRN LA WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE.

..BROYLES.. 12/21/2006
This front is a real mess. It seems to have completely stalled. Thats going to throw a spanner into the predictive works.

I dont see how there was convective storms at all over Houston today - with the shear being what it was over Texas.
Probably because of the high dew points and strong lifting index. The CAP was also broken pretty easily as well.
I heard the Space Shuttle is going to land in white sands New Mexico because the weather at Edwawrds and kenndy is Crappy.
We still getting the flow and lifting with another round of showers approaching.Ive had 24 hrs of measurable rain..now..UGH!
Yeah it's gonna be rough here at Kennedy, no chance of landing it anywhere other than NM.
Details and pics hereLink
Yeah patrap, I've seen estimates in some parishes of SE LA of over 6 inches today.
Yes looks like White Sands for an afternoon landing atempt, was in Cali ..in 80s last time that happened.
Here is an interesting page; you can see the NAM (ETA) and GFS forecasts for different cities in graphical form:

Quick-Looks and Meteograms
Thats the first big rain event since Katrina..overall we doing good..But Hopefully this will kick out.Some sections of City proper have drainge pipes still full of silt and debris from storm.But the pumps have kept the worst at bay.It can handle 1inch perhour for the first hour..then half inch per hour thereafter.It can still be overwhelmed though.
At least you guys haven't been hit hard this year too much patrap. Looks like the pumps are doing their job.
The totals are getting critical into the Marsh se of here.Link
That right on atmos..the pumping system always has been our engineering Marvel.The KAtrina thing was surge into the Lake and the pressure on the outfall canals from it.Plus the water that came in from the MRGO and the Intracoastal waterway..or the east. The pumping system has gotten a B grade today in my Opinion.Only 3 times have I seen it overwhelmed since 1960.78,95..and Katrina.But once the Breeches were sealed.The System pumped out 250billion gals of water in 23 days.Impressive..still.
NAM forecast:

the GFSx showing that Xmas storm and the cooldown
The GFSx Link
Thanks for the Grids and numbers MichaelSTL...ya much appreciated my man.
New Hurricane formes in central Kansas ☺
After the Christmas thing there seems to be moderate agreement of another gulf low around the 5th of Jan.
Yeah JFL and a sharp cool down for Florida following its passage.
Keep the flippers handy Pat more on the way we fairing good over my way for the present.
Actually the first and the 5th
There was a report out of that tornado warning.

1500 MARRERO JEFFERSON LA 2989 9011 A TORNADO DAMAGED SEVERAL HOMES IN MARRERO. ONE HOUSE HAD ROOF DAMAGE. OTHER HOMES HAD GUTTERS AND AWNINGS TORN OFF. (LIX)
I also like this link. It gives point data out to 16 days complete with graphics and various levels of the atmosphere. If you go under the Forecast tab, it also gives NAM forecast soundings!
Keep The flippers handy Pat more on the way. We fairing good over here at the present.
Regards to the weather & shuttle landing.Entry Weather - The Spaceflight Meteorology Group and the Entry Team continues to monitor the weather and associated forecasting models. Overall, the weather forecast has not changed significantly since yesterday. Both KSC and EDW continue to have marginal forecasts for EOM. For KSC, there is a chance of rainshowers and broken clouds at 5000 feet. At Edwards the crosswinds (310/12G18) are forecast to be out of limits, gusting to 18 knots although the EDW winds might swing to the west and decrease as the day progresses such that the second EDW rev may be better. NOR weather is GO for a landing on EOM. There was 0.16 inches of rain at NOR on FD 11 but the lakebed remains green and the runways are in good condition.

Northrup Landing - KSC is making plans to send additional GSE and personnel to NOR prior to FD14 (EOM) landing opportunities. At NOR, the ground team is planning to open the hatch, per nominal KSC/EDW ops, but there is no crew transport vehicle. There will be a stairway truck with a small white room at the top. The current plan is to tow off the runway as soon as possible in order to get Discovery to power and purge units which will be stationed at the staging area.


The shuttle will be passing over Bondo soon. It's in the upper right. Stop the launch on the lower right to listen in. Currently showing a good deal of lightning.
Rain Heading toward yall sandcrab..Link
Bondo continues to weaken at a pretty good rate and will probably be gone be this time tommorow if not sooner.

Hopefully that will be the end to all these intence tropical cyclones for a while.
Unfortunately, I think that Bondo is not the end; first, we are nowhere near the peak (in March; it is currently the equivalent of June down there), and I see a trend in increasing numbers of intense storms (and not just tropical cyclones)...

It's dying.
Bondo


It would have been like having a major in the atlantic in July.
I kinda see y its dyin because the in flow is gone and whats the shear over it?
It's under 30 kts of shear right now.
Everyone here who hasn't yet, go to my blog and vote for the most memorable weather of 2006.
Rains Flood New Orleans Streets

Published: 12/21/06, 9:05 PM EDT
By BECKY BOHRER

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Heavy rain swamped New Orleans' streets Thursday, forcing some schools to close early and backing up traffic as pumping stations struggled to keep up.

"Unbelievable," said Pamela Borne, who waded in knee-high water with her daughter on her back to get to her house. "It's very disappointing, that just with an overnight rain of this magnitude, that the city is so ill-prepared."

Most of her home was above the water level, but the ground-level floor, where she had stashed Christmas presents, had 4 inches of water in it before noon, Borne said.

Pumping stations, closely watched since the catastrophic flooding after Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, were working, officials said. But the rain lasted so long, they couldn't keep up, said public works director Jose Gonzalez of Jefferson Parish.

"The rest of the day, we will continue to pump," Gonzalez said. "Hopefully, it's not going to rain as much as it did this morning. ... The amount of rain, that's what hurt us."

Some schools in New Orleans closed early because of street flooding and traffic problems, officials said.

The same storm that dumped snow across the West brought more than 6 inches of rain to the New Orleans area through midday Thursday. The National Weather Service issued a flash flood watch until noon Friday for parts of east-central and southeastern Louisiana.

The community of Larose, about 60 miles south of New Orleans, got an estimated 10 to 12 inches of rain, meteorologist Fred Zeigler said. Parts of southeastern Louisiana, leading up to New Orleans, had 6 to 8 inches, he said.
The convective blow-up near Madagascar looks more impressive than Bondo:



SSD:
21/2030 UTC 9.5S 50.0E T4.5/5.5 BONDO -- South Indian Ocean

CIMSS ADT:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 980.3mb/ 65.0kt

CIMSS AMSU:
| Estimated MSLP: 966 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 83 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Poor ( +/- 16mb +/- 15kts )

All of these appear to be too high, based on the appearance.

Final storm of 2006? (unlike the Atlantic, the CMC seems pretty good in catching development in the West Pacific/Indian Ocean area, as well as whether a storm will be strong or not).
Its so wet the Lake Ponchatrain Causeway Bridge showing up on radar..Its 24 Miles across.Link
There is a kink in the front at the GOM. The pressure in the GOM looks like it could go lower than much of the pressure in the continental US tonight. Just north of Tennessee a gap is forming in the cloud pattern and the clouds in the immediate gulf area have taken on a different inflection.

I think its about to get more interesting.
Good Lord - Patrap, skyepony. That is scary if NOLA can't handle 6 inches of rain.
hey everyone!

i'm in melbourne (indialantic) for a month. geeze has it been windy / wavy out there, they just installed some new hurricane shutters and they are rattling like crazy.

anyone know of a place where i can rent surf boards around here? those waves look fun! it's been so hot down here, too bad the rain is moving in. i have barely had time to work on a tan!!

also, does anyone like skyepony or flcrackergirl know of any unique out of the way fun places around here i should hit up? thanks!
acduke - the waves ARE fun - & you don't need a board, but check RON JON & your email. Rent a sailboard on Sunday & you can go to Bermuda :)
board
I hope that will be the last intense cyclone of the year... i hope!
Bondo is a catagory 1 cyclone but is forecasted to intensify to a catagory 2 before weakening again
Major cool down for first weekend of January? Take a look at this.



This is the GFS forcast for Houston. Look at how cold it gets for the 5th of January. The temp gets below 30 F!
Also, look at the precipitation for January 5. I know the forcast is still a crap shot, but just looking at is has me excited!
i live over in the UK and we have had a freezing week but still the weather forecasters are predicting no snow for christmas. It looks like its about to snow now.
acduke~ If your really into surfing Ron Jons in Cocoa Beach is the Disney World of surf shops. More local~ there is several near 192 & A1A where you can rent a board at the Boardwalk & park there. (Good pizza joint too) There is less rocks if ya surf down that way too, they get less & less the farth South ya go. Sebastian Inlet State Park's Monster hole is the ultimate surf spot. It's worth a day & about a 1/2 hour south of ya. The Hustler on the west side of A1A between Eau Gallie Blvd & 192 (closer to 192) is the spot to play pool, see the local bands, party. Cantina dos Amigos is a great Mexican resterant, real close. Enjoy the beachside life!
I also checked New Orleans and Dallas (the two closest places to Houston), and they have similar forcasts.

NewOrleans GFS Forcast

Dallas GFS Forcast
Look at this winter storm
Look at that winter storm!!!!!!!!
Definately looks impressive, but all it did here is cause a party to be a pain in the neck...
Local Storm Report


12/21/2006 0629 PM

5 miles NE of Katy, Harris County.

Hail m0.88 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Nickel size hail at the intersection of fry Road and FM
529.





12/21/2006 0239 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Heavy pea sized hail in museum district of Houston... at
Dunlevy and Richmond... just north of Highway 59.




12/21/2006 0242 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Heavy pea sized hail at cavalcade and Interstate 45... 3
miles north of Houston Heights.




12/21/2006 0247 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Pea sized hail at Interstate 10 and T. C. Jester.




12/21/2006 0230 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by co-op observer.


Half inch Marble sized hail at Westbury... fell for around
4 minutes.





12/21/2006 0239 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Heavy pea sized hail in museum district of Houston... at
Dunlevy and Richmond... just north of Highway 59.




12/21/2006 0242 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Heavy pea sized hail at cavalcade and Interstate 45... 3
miles north of Houston Heights.




12/21/2006 0247 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Pea sized hail at Interstate 10 and T. C. Jester.




12/21/2006 0230 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by co-op observer.


Half inch Marble sized hail at Westbury... fell for around
4 minutes.





12/21/2006 0239 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Heavy pea sized hail in museum district of Houston... at
Dunlevy and Richmond... just north of Highway 59.




12/21/2006 0242 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Heavy pea sized hail at cavalcade and Interstate 45... 3
miles north of Houston Heights.




12/21/2006 0247 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Pea sized hail at Interstate 10 and T. C. Jester.




12/21/2006 0230 PM

Houston, Harris County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by co-op observer.


Half inch Marble sized hail at Westbury... fell for around
4 minutes.


Oh boy! All that just barely missed me! It all went a little to my south. All I got was an average spring-type thunderstorm.
Bondo
Bondo is slowly getting less orginised.

Currently at 75kts with a pressure of 967mb
Oh, man... I knew this could happen...



CMC forecast (not quite in the same place, but in the right area and a bit in the future):



Past storms with similar phase diagrams (CMC model): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
I wonder... why is Bondo at 75 kts when Dvorak estimates (3.0/4.0 from SSD and 3.2 from CIMSS) don't even support 75 kts, much less minimal hurricane intensity?
90s
90s Invest.
Currently at 15kts and a pressure of 1006mb
KSC has been given a maybe on the weather as far as a landing in about 4 hrs approach would cross central Fl from Sarasota to S of KSC, swing out over the ocean with a sweeping left turn then land on a runway from the NW. There's a recon flying around the area constantly eyeing the weather.
Good call Michael. Is it from that area that was to the NE of Bondo like 3 days ago, that I had though might be the next invest in the area? I failed to keep up with it on the big picture.
Cyclone Bondo's Future Winds

23/12/06- 85kts Gusts to 105 kts

24/12/06- 65 kts Gusts to 80 kts

25/12/06- 35 Kts Gusts 50 kts
Yes; it is currently located at 5.3S, 67.2E, although the model does not show development until it reaches 10S (either it moves south or the center redevelops to the south).
I agree with you Michael it will start to develop when it reaches 10S and according to the website ive just been on it will only reach a peak of 65kts. The owner of the website can't conform that. I'll keep anyone posted
The CMC suggests a stronger storm, when you compare it to some past storms with similar phase diagrams (Helene, Katrina, Chaba, Ivan and Isabel are a few). I would say at least a Cat 3 storm, depending on how big it is (the phase diagrams are not good at estimating the intensity but generally a stronger storm will show up with a lower pressure, larger windfield and deeper warm-core).
Does this seem odd to you?



(Precip. amounts are liquid equivalents so snowfall will be about 10x higher than what you see)
ive just gone onto a website and its showing a model with a really unlikely prediction of the system reaching catagory 5 with in the next 4 days.
Or this?



I can tell you that it seems odd to me.
Tt does look odd so you guys might have a very interesting Christmas and New year
The only problem with having an interesting Christmas is that the forcast is for January 5th.
A potent severe weather event, followed by cold air, is possible in Florida by Christmas. Read more on my blog or

Forida Weather
Sorry what i ment to say is, a very interesting firdt week in january
This isn't really unusual though; it does suggest that I will get snow on Christmas (the point marked Dec 26 is actually 6:00 pm CST Dec 25):



The NWS backs this up, although they don't forecast anything significan:

Christmas Day: A chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.
Im living in the UK and we're getting freezing weather but still the forecasters are predicting no snow for christmas and rasberrys are still growing
Take a look at the potential off Australia... no wonder Monica may have had a pressure of 868 mb with 200+ mph winds:



Already off the chart and it is like late June down there; waters will continue warming for months! Hmmm... why does it bottom out at 880 mb and 165 kts (85 m/s), considering that the Dvorak scale goes down to 858 mb and 170 kts?
Their is definitly alot of potential out there so it will be interesting to see what happens
snow cover
There is a lot of snow cover there
Hello all of you-all. Its a lovely benign day in the Tropics here. Seems that some of you have snow up to your gills, fog up to your neck and hail to your knees. What can I say, have a great one anyway..Peace on earth ?
Hi Pottery how are you today??
I'm doing realy well, Thunder. Sorry about the Ashes........
Where are you from pottery??
Trinidad, West Indies....
England will beat 'em at the SCG!
I live in Scotland so....
Have u guys been tracking Cyclone Bondo????
Realy ? HEHEHEHE, Cant see ANYONE beating those dam Aussies right now. They play like the Windies did once apon a time. Coming for the World Cup ????
Ok do you want to get into some tropical weather now and England can't beat nothing even if they tried
Yeah it's still at 75 kts and 967 mb but probably weaker than that (that estimate was from 6 hours ago)
Yeah, I've been watching Bondo, seems to be struggling to maintain...
Will be watching the WC but can't come unfortunately. I'll place a bet right now that Australia won't even reach the final. They may be a great test side but they aren't quite as potent in ODIs anymore.
Looks like some serious potential at North Australia though.
Yep anything that gets in there is gonna like those warm deep waters.
True, Atmos..
Yeah it is struggling but is forecasted to increase in strength to become a catagory 2 Cyclone.
Bondo's future wind speeds:
23/12/06-85kts Gusts to 105kts

24/12/06-65kts Gusts to 80kts

25/12/06-35kts Gusts to 50kts

Currently at around 70 kts now
Where are you Atmos ?
Orlando, FL
have you also seen 90S trailing Bondo???

Currently at 15kts with a pressure of 1006mb
So how come you watch cricket ?
I was born in England always liked cricket from a young age. I go on vacation every summer back there and while I'm there I usually play in the local summer recreation leagues.
Thunder, how does the shear look ahead of 90s ?
There is a new INVEST in the West Pacific
Afternoon..Discovery crew all strapped in ..with entry suits and Helments on..Just waiting on a Vector..Payload Bay doors closed. Now..they have just waved off KSC..for this pass.Will be looking at Edwards for a later rev..entry.
its around 10kts at the moment and one model i just looked at expect the system to strenthen to a catagory 3 cyclone once it reaches 10S
Good, Atmos. I went to school in Barbados. As you know, the game is King there, so was forced to play. Loved it then, love it still...
Also an oppurtunity for New Mexico at Northrup strip...on the next pass.
I don't think they'll get into Edwards either...
Pat, any ETA for that ?
The only limiting factor for 90S that I can see is its latitude. It needs to move a lot further south if it wants to follow in Bondo's footsteps. Wind shear is favorable (10-15 kts) and there's an upper level high out ahead of its path.
Bondo is under 30kts of shear just now but is excpected to move into an area with about 15kts of shear.
Pat - looks like the front has passed you right?
Crew are taking a 1 hr break before they get back into deorbit procedure. If they are able to get into KSC it will be at 5:32 EST.
The INVEST in the West Pacific is disorginised
and is in a area of around 5kts of shear so some development is possible
Right, thanks Pat. The weather has cleared over you ?
My mistake, its coming into an area with 10kts of shear
not cleared..but the rain has moved east..dreary here with cooling temps.
Where are you Patrap??
Here are the Discovery Landing Tracks for all 3 sites from the Landing page..With HAC grids too.Link
Looks like bright skies for Sat and Sun though Pat. Have a realy good one, and to the precious Family as well.
Patrap iz in New Orleans..was hoping for KSC..ground track was right over us..but not to be .Was hoping to get the pics.
Thanks pottery.Merry Christmas to You and yours..
The KSC 203 orbit Grid is not on that page.
I'm out till later.....
Have you seen that front moving across the eastern seaboard.
Looks like they'll be landing in NM this evening.
Yeah thunderstorm2 this is the front that is expected to stall out over central Florida and give me severe weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day!
Your going to have a interesting Christmas then.

Oh yeah, this will be the third severe weather outbreak this fall/winter (the one on November 8th produced two powerful tornadoes, one of which I got caught driving in and had to lie in the median of the highway along with 100+ other people fearing for their lives!!!)
Ive just got the latest image of Bondo
and it looks like its decreasing in strength rapidly. So it might dissipate before hitting east Madagascar.
atmos, What do you think of the Tropics this year??
176. ryang
Hello
Hello ryang how are you???
I think the rapid transition from La Nina to El Nino surprised a lot of people which is why the early predictions for this year's Atlantic season were so high; no one expected the change to happen in the same calendar year. So if you think about it, the relatively mundane Atlantic season was nothing out of the ordinary and things like that can still happen, even in an "active AMO cycle". The west Pacific was much more active than I thought it would be, especially in the last two months, but the eastern Pacific was a little quieter than some El Nino years in the past.
179. ryang
Hi thunderstorm2
What is surprizing me is the amount of typhoons and super typhoons that has hit the Phillipines over the past 3 months
Yep that's been quite the story. Almost like the Atlantic was during September and October last year.
Hi ryang have you been tracking Bondo and the INVEST behind it???
The main Super Typhoon for me would be Durian. That was some Typhoon
185. ryang
Thunderstorm2 only bondo.
Durian and also Cimaron.
Bondo intensified so quickly it reminded me of Hurricane Wilma
Yeah Cimaron was brilliant to track.
I also think that 98W will be something to track
From NWS Miami:
ALTHOUGH TO EARLY TO TELL (OR TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE)...UPPER
DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ALSO FOR STRONG TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH A 50 KTS
850 MB JET JUST N OF SOUTH FLORIDA...STRONG OMEGA VALUES AND THE
RRQ OF A JET STREAK ACROSS N FL MON AFTERNOON.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATE A STRONGER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND SO TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S EXTREME
SOUTH ARE A POSSIBILITY ON WED MORNING.
191. ryang
Thunderstorm2 check this link
hi weatherboykris
There is hardly anything at the nothern tip of Madagascar. 90S is looking good
That front thats moving across the eastern seaboard is expected to stall over Florida
Hi Thunderstorm2.Are you new?
yes i am
From NWS Melbourne:
THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE
AIDED BY AN IMPRESSIVE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING AMPLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF ECFL FL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN PERIODS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
PENINSULA.
TRAVELERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEATHER UPDATES CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TO FIND OUT THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. WILL END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MON
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC
New to meteorology,WU,or both?If you don't mind my asking.
Where are you weatherboykris??
Bondo is no longer a closed low pressure area.
Link
Still some pretty strong winds left over,though.
WU because im not that bad in meteorology
but im not the best
Link
Don't know if you're interested or not,but this is a good site.
90S is looking alright so far and is in an area of around 5-10kts so some development is possible
I'll look more deeply into theese things later
have you been tracking 90S and 98W
90S is looking not that bad
Currently at 15kts with a pressure of 1006mb

98W is looking disorginised
Currently at 15kts with an unpredicted pressure
210. 882MB
Looks like a very dangerous SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK may occur over FLORIDA on CHRISTMAS DAY. More concerned with the SUPERCELLS that may form AHEAD of the SQUALL LINE these are the TORNADO producers!
Good afternoon,

Looks like a wet christmas for south florida...

Here is part of the NWS discussion out of miami from this afternoon.

EXTENDED FORECAST...NOW TO THE BIGGER CONCERN...CHRISTMAS DAY.
AGAIN UKMET, ECMWF, GFS AND CMC, ALL INDICATE A VERY VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH (WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ALONG
THE ROCKIES TO CENTRAL MEXICO) MOVING THROUGH S. TEXAS SUN
INJECTING THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ENOUGH ENERGY TO DEVELOP A
SFC LOW. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND BY MON
MORNING IT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS ERN GULF OF MEX. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES ENE WITH A SQUALL LINE FEATURE POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF S FL EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GFS NOW INDICATES
LESS PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES IT FASTER ONCE IT REACHES
OUR AREA...EXITING S. FL SOMETIME TUE MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
WILL DEFINITELY GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
IN THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED QUITE A BIT. HOW MUCH RAIN? YOU MAY
ASK...WELL IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE AN AVERAGE OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT.
ALTHOUGH TO EARLY TO TELL (OR TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE)...UPPER
DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ALSO FOR STRONG TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH A 50 KTS
850 MB JET JUST N OF SOUTH FLORIDA...STRONG OMEGA VALUES AND THE
RRQ OF A JET STREAK ACROSS N FL MON AFTERNOON.
Hi 882MB. There is a concern about the front thats over the eastern seaboard that is looking to stall and produce have snow and rain and tornados.
Hi hurricane23 how are you today
214. 882MB
It kind of reminds me of the FEBERUARY 2,1998 FLORIDAS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK!
There is three tropical systems currently on the loose
216. ryang
Hi 23.
There looks like a snow storm pushing in from the east pacific
Hey guys iam doing ok just got of work...Been up since 2am.
where are you from 23???
i like your help evere one i will be doing a new id that i will keep for 1 year like i did with my taz id but i cant tihnk of any
LOL i ran evere one off heh
882MB,there will be very little,if any tornadoes on Christmas.There will be a near complete lack of directional shear,wich is needed for tornado development as it leads to the rotation.Just look at the forecast sounding.

Speed shear will be fairly good for South Florida standards,and if there is some sunshine before the squall line comes instability could increase enough to support severe storms with hail and strong winds.No tornadoes though,at least for South Florida.
TMC3
There's the forecast sounding I tried to post.
There is some risk of tornado's for central Florida
oh me?

if you are talking to some one or try to tell some one some in Please call them by there id so i would no oh is talking to oh


you may call me taz in tell 2007
Here is a question for everybody, What do you think of the tropics this year???
Everybody! Please don't give Taz any suggestions for a new ID! He actually was forced to sign a contract saying that he would NEVER make another ID ever again!
Directional shear is simply too low.There will be no turning of winds with height.Even the Melbourne forecast sounding would not support tornadoes.As I said,there will be enough speed shear that there will be a severe squall line, but the storms will not rotate.Link
Thunderstorm2 i live a few blocks from the NHC in miami...Take a look at the pic i took on my blog here at wunderground.
for get the dam contract that was a year a go and the new year is comeing and i want a new id for the new year
Thats impressive 23
Taz its not the new year yet.
He already has/had about TWO DOZEN different IDs; I wish that Aaron would restrict you to ONE ID unless there was a good reason to have two (and no more than two).
Thunderstorm2 check your mail!
Here is a question for everybody, What do you think of the tropics this year???

If your talking about 2007,it should be very active as it is starting to look like we will transition to a La Nina by late August,and be neutral by July.
Expect a relatively quiet June,with things ramping up quickly by July 30th.October and November should be well above average,they usually are during La Ninas.
they where high jack
The trolls are gone, at least the hackers are (I think, because ricderr's ID was recently hijacked).
Thunderstorm2,here is the ENSO forecast model spread.The blue line is the average of all the forecasts.
Link
Break..Okay Gulf Coast and KSC fans.Discovery is go for the De-orbit burn to KSC.They threading the needle.And looks like all the Northern GOM and Gulf coastal areas will hear the sonic booms.!
1 minute to the de-orbit burn..
cheers 23 for the comment on my blog iv left a replie. I will drop into your website.
Worldwide for 2007, I expect a continuation of the pattern of increasing numbers of intense storms (as a percentage of total storms, and not just tropical cyclones). I would also be very concerned about northern Australia in the coming months because they already have Monica-type potential (see potential map I posted a page or two back) and it is still a few months from the peak of their season... As for landfalls, this will depend on the tracks; for example, 1997 was totally insane in the West Pacific (10 Category 5s, three stronger than Wilma), but few intense storms struck land. Tracks are also not readily predictable in advance.
Shame its cloudy..the ground track goes right over my trailer here....Darn..This track was last used by..Well...Columbia..but she never made it ...past Texas.
well i cant think of any right now


thats why i ask you for help
Discovery now into the Burn..and Shes vectored to KSC ..via the Gulf Coast!....
Thanks thunderstorm2.
Thats a good model weatherboykris
Discovery that a good id
23, do you think both 90S and 98W will develop? Keep in mind that their both in an area of low wind shear
Thanks Thunder2.Are you talking about the forecast sounding?
If so,here's where you get them
Link
Choose your model,time,and then type in your station identifier.
For real soundings Link
For how to interpret the soundings
Link and
Link
The Ground track for the LANDing..if your under or near the track..you should hear the sonic booms..Link
Theese are all useful weatherboykris
Thunderstorm2 its been one heck of year across the pacific but overall i think bondo could have very well been the last intense storm we see.It was rough watching the philippines get slammed time after time this year.I expect that el nino will be gone come june 1 across the atlantic basin so neutral conditions might very be in place.But rememeber its not the number of storms that form that matters its the ones the actually make landfall that have the greatest impact.
Cyclonebuster there is a possibility of that happening. I'll take a more indepth look at that later
264. ryang
Hi everyone.
Thunderstorm2 its been one heck of year across the pacific but overall i think bondo could have very well been the last intense storm we see.It was rough watching the philippines get slammed time after time this year.I expect that el nino will be gone come june 1 across the atlantic basin so neutral conditions might very be in place.But rememeber its not the number of storms that form that matters its the ones the actually make landfall that have the greatest impact.
Aw, please don't listen to cyclonebuster... most of what he says is bunk (especially his tunnels and how they supposedly will be able to cool the ocean, weaken hurricanes AND provide limitless electricity all at the same time - and cause an enviromental catastrophe, which he insists won't happen).
268. MTJax
Taz should make an ID we would never recognize like Tazmanian2. Nobody could figure that one out.
23, It has been a busy year across the pacific and unless 90S and/or 98W intensify rapidly then Bondo is going to be the last powerful storm this year. el nino should be gone by june.
What tunnels?
The Pacific, believe it or not has been... below average (except for major storms, which doesn't surprise me, as in a few decades, almost every storm will be a major storm). By the way, the number of storms worldwide is also below average, except again for major storms and Cat 4-5s.
What tunnels?

Click on cyclonebuster's handle and scroll down to see his entries on his physically impossible tunnels (to avoid cluttering up this blog with yet another round of tunnel nonsense).
273. ryang
I think this does not see florida link
Here's why the NHC says cooling the waters wouldn't work.
Link
Oh I get it.Cyclonebuster wants to bust cyclones
Since hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water, some proposals have been put forward to tow icebergs from the arctic zones to the tropics to cool the sea surface temperatures. Others have suggested pumping cold bottom water in pipes to the surface, or releasing bags of cold freshwater from near the bottom to do this.

That's from NHC FAQ
Did you guys notice the date on the link I posted.It was last updated the day Charley hit.ironic
The water cooling would i think take alot of money to do and their is no proof that it would work
NO Tunnels,..no More...5
Thunder,cooler waters do indeed weaken hurricanes.Still,I'm looking at Cyclonebuster's blogs and I have to agree with MichaelSTL.It's impossible to find a practical way to do it.
I've just looked at cyclonebuster's blogs and i agree now with weatherboykris and MichaelSLT.
Undersea vulcanism puts Millions of more BTUS into the oceans in 1 hour than all the vessels in the world ever could..ridiculous to consider such. ...LOL
Discovery now entering the atmosphere..entry interface..On schedule for a 4:32 pm cst landing at KSC.
Heres a neat note.Discovery touchdown at 5:32 pm EST.. Sunset KSC 5:32pm EST
Knock yerself out.Here, have a snickers too.
Discovery 3000 nm to touchdown..Touchdown in 24 minutes
could we please get on to more tropical weather situations other than cyclonebuster's ranting about cooling water and other silly rubbish
yes i know that cyclonebuster but we get the point about your "cooling waters" situation but you keep on ranting about it!!!!!!
294. ryang
Thunderstorm2 where do you live.
KSC has T-Linkshowers to its sw ..the Orbiter will Miss them coming in from the NW...
Discovery approaching sw Texas ..will be heard over Houston around 4:22 cst...
Alt..38nm...1100 statue miles to KSC
speed..11,000mph..and slowing
some people might disagree with that cyclonebuster
just heard what might be the sonic boom in Baton Rouge
hi cajunkid
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 4:17 PM CST on December 22, 2006. (hide)
speed..11,000mph..and slowing

Speed kills!


Aw, come on... landing the Space Shuttle is like landing a plane...
Woo HOO!..Sonic Boom New Orleans..4:24 :15..welcome back Discovery!
MichaelSTL does cyclonebuster never stop complaning???
Yhat was it Cajun kid...right on time...
Nope; he has been doing this for a year or so...
hi everyone, welcome home Discovery, and merry Christmas! now I'm back to work
it must get really annoying because while your trying to talk about something he starts complaning about what u've posted!!!!
im away. Good Evening everyone
Welcome home Space Shuttle Discovery hey did anyone see the or hear the sonic booms?
Coming in from the NW like that, no sonic booms for me this time. Nice coverage by the local news though.
Yep we got a pretty good sonic boom here in east Orlando.