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Largest Tornado on Record: the May 31 El Reno, OK EF-5 Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:54 PM GMT on June 04, 2013

The largest tornado in recorded history was Friday's May 31, 2013 EF-5 tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma, the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma announced on Tuesday. The EF-5 re-classification was based upon Doppler radar data taken by Oklahoma University's mobile RaXPol radar. According to comments made by tornado researcher Rick Smith at a press conference today, the mobile radar was positioned on top of an overpass, and recorded winds close to the surface of up to 295 mph in satellite suction vorticies that orbited the large, main vortex. The large, main vortex had EF-4 winds of 185 mph, and the satellite suction vortices moved across the fields at that speed, and rotated on their own at speeds of up to 110 mph, giving a combined wind speed of up to 295 mph in some of the satellite vortices. It's no wonder that so many storm chasers got in trouble with this tornado, since these suction vortices moved as speeds of up to 185 mph towards them as the tornado rapidly expanded into the largest on record. The tornado killed tornado scientist Tim Samaras and his two chase partners, Paul Samaras and Carl Young, and also killed an amateur storm chaser, Richard Charles Henderson. The 295 mph winds of the El Reno tornado rank second only to the world-record 302 mph (135 m/s) winds recorded in the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 3, 1999. However, the Moore tornado's winds were measured at an altitude of 105 feet (32 meters), so the winds near the surface may have been higher in the El Reno tornado.


Figure 1. Path of the May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado from the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma. Note how the tornado began moving directly down I-40 as it headed towards Oklahoma City; had the tornado maintained its EF-5 strength and moved down I-40 into Oklahoma City, where traffic was bumper-to-bumper due to people trying to flee, the greatest tornado disaster in U.S. history would have resulted.


Video 1. The May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma EF-5 tornado as filmed by storm chasers Justin Hoyt and Stephen Barabas, another team of chasers that were in extreme danger from the tornado. Their description: "The LONGER, INCREDIBLE WAY TOO CLOSE video of the multivortex tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31st. This beast quickly turned onto us and grew into an over 2.6 mile wedge, the largest on record. After the easy escape from the multivortex, we ended up dropping south right into the damage path of the monster, getting caught up in its outer circulation. The dangerous aspect was that chasers were positioned all over the road and backed up in a panic instead of immediately turning around." Warning: foul language, including one F-bomb. A more detailed account of the chase is here.

Previous record largest tornado: 2.5 miles in diameter
The previous official record for the widest tornado belonged to the EF-4 Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska tornado on May 22, 2004, which had a damage path up to 2.5 miles wide. However, NOAA's Storm Data publication documents that the EF-3 Edmonson, Texas tornado of May 31, 1968 had a damage path width between 2 and 3 miles (3.2 and 4.8 km) wide. In addition, Doppler radar measurements indicate that the May 4, 1999 Mulhall, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado--which thankfully passed mostly over farmland--would have caused damage over a path 4 miles wide at its peak size, had it encountered a built-up area.


Figure 2. Damage swath of the Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska F-4 tornado of May 22, 2004 was up to 2.5 miles wide, making it one of the largest tornadoes on record.

Wunderground has large 2 Mb animations of the high-resolution radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity Level II radar data, with the damage path of the May 31, 2013 El Reno tornado overlaid.

Jeff Masters
El Reno Tornado with Lightning Strike
El Reno Tornado with Lightning Strike

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looking at the ridge pattern the CONUS would be in big trouble if this holds through towards the heart of the hurricane season.



Especially for the Gulf coast.
Quoting WxLogic:
Will be nice to see what the HH finds if 91L keeps it up by 1:30PM ET:

1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OG MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1730Z
D. 24.0N 89.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


1st typo of the season.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looking at the ridge pattern the CONUS would be in big trouble if this holds through towards the heart of the hurricane season.



It's ridge setups like this that have convinced me to move further away from the water as I get older. I live in Fort Walton Beach, FL and right now I only sit at 10' above sea level about 150 yards from the water. I'm looking to move somewhere more in town further away from the water and at least 15' above sea level. I pray this ridge moves some before we get to the heart of the season!
1004. 7544
i still belive once the models get the data latter on today too we going to see the them shift further south wating !
1005. WxLogic
Quoting AussieStorm:


1st typo of the season.


LOL
Quoting ScottLincoln:

If you are referring to the El Reno EF5 tornado, my understanding is that they used radar velocity data to create the path, instead of delineating the edge of surveyed damage. My understanding is that the threshold of damage was set to winds of EF0 strength or greater.



Maybe the strongest winds were in that giant lowhanging condensation funnel at 100m or so, but never quite came down the the surface at that strength or width.

I dont know.....still strange nobody seems to have an image of the tornado at that width and no ef5 damage was found.
However the scar on satellite fits the outline from nws norman
1008. WxLogic
Quoting Gearsts:
Is 91L going over and Eddy?


Should be close to the outer each of one or at least getting close to it:

1009. vis0

Quoting GTcooliebai:
I've noticed a trend and it sucks to be honest, that is the Western Gulf seems to be dry for the most part over the past few seasons, which seems to be killing off storms or inhibiting them from getting their act together. Is this a climate thing? Suppose the TDR aka Texas Death Ridge has something to do with it?
It's an ml-d thing (don't ask, IMAGE SEARCH: ml-d,senor equis -for info or see crappy graphics), but lets wait 5 more days to see what wxtrends begin & stick around for a couple of months.
Carl Parker says it is a depression...
Convection is slowly working towards the center of 91L during the past few hours. Conditions could become more conducive and we could see a tropical storm by late tonight through tomorrow.

1012. guygee
91L is getting more interesting this morning. Precipitation is tightening up and even a couple small storms beginning to pop on the west side of the broad circulation. Slow development looks to be continuing.
Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:
Carl Parker says it is a depression...


What does Dr. Masters say?

Owning the competition is always a good thing...for the owners...
1200 UTC... Models are more enthusiastic with the TS status


Quoting Civicane49:


See a little bubble closer to the center of circulation.
1016. 7544
Quoting Civicane49:
Convection is slowly working towards the center of 91L during the past few hours. Conditions could become more conducive and we could see a tropical storm by late tonight through tomorrow.



yeap they may have to up this soon being its getting closer to the pinisular imo
1017. KORBIN
As you can see from imaging at this point the storm is gaining strength. As you can see we have one little piece of popcorn convection starting towards the East Side of the LLC.

1018. NRAamy
91 L is her
1019. Gearsts
Levi Cowan%u200F@TropicalTidbits1h
~36 hours left before influence of shortwave and track over land will end 91L's tropical chances. Heavy rainfall still main threat by far.

Levi Cowan%u200F@TropicalTidbits1h
91L has a better shot at developing now that the shear vector is out of the south on eastern side, and strong winds wrapping on north side
Intellicast app.
91L
Satellite + wind.

1021. flcanes
According to the models, trends say it is likely to make landfall in florida
Quoting stormchaser19:
1200 UTC... Models are more enthusiastic with the TS status




What is the BAMS drinking? lol
1024. VR46L
Just trying to decipher the level of dry air...








Looks like it would smother any TS ...
1025. VR46L
BTW Good Morning
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Intellicast app.
91L
Satellite + wind.



yep, we're up to about 1/5th or 1/6th of the circulate having convection.
The imagery points to a full swirl.
The seperate convection looks to be showing some upper level outflow, right?
What is happening in the middle must be crazy.
1028. yoboi
Quoting Gearsts:
Is 91L going over and Eddy?



RI?
Quoting VR46L:
Just trying to decipher the level of dry air...








Looks like it would smother any TS ...

Great Images! And yes. The level and prevalence of the dry air to the west of the circulation poses a significant problem to the system's development into getting named.
Not to be off topic, but on Friday last week during the evening a tornado tore through Decatur, IL, the town I work in. This tornado was just about a mile north of the facility. No injuries or deaths. Was Rated an EF 1. (winds est. 90-95 mph) Frequency of tornadoes in the state of Illinois over the last 2 years has been well below normal. :) Good news.



Still has work to do to be a TD and time is running out.

Quoting WxLogic:


LOL

Last year the NHC got the crayon colour wrong.
1033. Gearsts
Look at the inflow south of the convection and what does it tell you were the real center is and how bad is organize?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Still has work to do to be a TD.



Although the majority of the convection is off to the east of the center, it is slowly working its way to the center in the past few hours. But yes, 91L still has more work to do.
Quoting Gearsts:
Look at the inflow south of the convection and what does it tell you were the real center is and how bad is organize?


I think the shear maps are a bit misleading as well. Still looks to me that we have 20-30 knots of shear at the very least over the main thunderstorm area.
1036. pcola57
Good Morning All..
81 degrees with 85%rh and dew at 76..
Mostly cloudy with winds 9 from ESE..
Daughter graduated HS yesterday..
Goes to College in August..
I'm so proud of her..

Beach looking parlty sunny..
Surfs up a bit..
This is definitely a sunscreen day..

1037. pcola57


Earth Image of the day

A Scarred Landscape in Oklahoma - June 5, 2013



The ASTER instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this wide view of the destruction wrought by the May 20, 2013, tornado in Moore, Oklahoma.
Below are photos of the flash flooding that occurred in western Kentucky on Saturday, June 1 during the early morning:

Major flooding starts off the meteorological summer of 2013

Photo 1: Taken along U.S. Highway 60 near Interstate 24 in Paducah. Flash flooding of Perkins Creek affected the hotels and restaurants near exit 4 of the interstate. Photo forwarded to WPSD television by Nathan Clark.


Photo 2: Photo of a flooded hotel near exit 4 off Interstate 24. Evacuations were conducted at a couple of hotels near Perkins Creek. Photo from McCracken County Office of Emergency Management.


Photo 3: Photo of aftermath of creek flooding near Oakcrest Apartments in Paducah. Photo from Beau Dodson.


Photo 4: Photo of Oakcrest Apartments in Paducah, which were flooded by a nearby creek. Photo from Beau Dodson.


Photo 5: Photo of flooding on Highway 80 in Arlington, KY (Carlisle County). Photo by Charles Fisher, Carlisle Co. Sheriff Dept.
1039. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Great Images! And yes. The level and prevalence of the dry air to the west of the circulation poses a significant problem to the system's development into getting named.


Thanks ! Just wish I could find a map with Mid vapour on its own and Upper vapour on its on like you can get through CMISS for the eastern Atlantic
1040. Gearsts
Look at what i mean, we have our little COC very weak but the real thing is actually still very broad and elongated.Sorry if my english sucks!
91L is still struggling with shear and dry air, but it seems the circulation is a bit tighter this morning. I haven't noticed as many vorticies rotating around the main low competing with one another. Should be one of the steps in helping it consolidate.
Center of 91L is now moving toward the convection. Very interesting evolution of 91L this morning.

I suspect that we will have TS Andrea over the next 12 to 18 hours.
1044. WxLogic
Quoting Gearsts:
Look at the inflow south of the convection and what does it tell you were the real center is and how bad is organize?


IMO... a new center is starting to get its self going closer to the convection(as hinted by the inflow to the S), but will like to see a couple more hours to be 100% sure.
1045. bwi
Quoting stormpetrol:


A WSW wind of 40 knots , kinda strong.


Those boats at 24, 27, and 40 look like tropical storm chasers!
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS HURRICANE UPDATE JUNE 5th 2013-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IMMINENT






Quoting WxLogic:


IMO... a new center is starting to get its self going closer to the convection(as hinted by the inflow to the S), but will like to see a couple more hours to be 100% sure.


looks as if the center is moving toward the convection now.
This is what I see nothing official,only my opinion.

1049. hydrus
The heat out west has no sign of letting up.
Quoting PRweathercenter:
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS HURRICANE UPDATE JUNE 5th 2013-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IMMINENT





WTH!!!!!
1052. Gearsts
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is what I see nothing official,only my opinion.

Yep thats what i see but trying to show it with lame paint skill doesn't work.
1053. vis0

Quoting FunnelVortex:


See a little bubble closer to the center of circulation.
 edited FunnelVortex's avatar w/o permission, [http://i43.tinypic.com/2rp8yzt.jpg] really an ani-gif.

As to the formation, don't forget how floods are #1 weather related danger, so careful IF runoff occurs from Appalachians.
Quoting Civicane49:


Look at that lonely thunderstorm on the southern side of the circulation..


img src="">
1056. hydrus
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is what I see nothing official,only my opinion.

I dunno. Might be something brewing under there..
1057. 7544
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is what I see nothing official,only my opinion.



yep if thats true it may just come in further to the south of where the models have it going more ne than north the next 12 hours .
Quoting MississippiWx:
91L is still struggling with shear and dry air, but it seem the circulation is a bit tighter this morning. I haven't noticed as many vorticies rotating around the main low competing with one another. Should be one of the steps in helping it consolidate.

It looks like the moonsonal gyre is elongating and weakening. Might see a relocation, but I can't tell how long it'll take or when it will commence.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is what I see nothing official,only my opinion.


Agreed.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

It looks like the moonsonal gyre is elongating and weakening. Might see a relocation, but I can't tell how long it'll take or when it will commence.


It's possible. With such a large area of low pressure, any area is capable of spinning up into becoming the dominant center. It would obviously feel more inclined to develop near the most intense convection. Still need more satellite frames to see if this is the case. Shear is still a good 25kts through the area, so anything developing near the convection could just as easily get sheared again.
1061. pcola57
Sure is alot of dry air to 91L's West,North..
This invest has alot going against it..

impressive blow up of convection... until this thing can get it's mid-level and low-level circulations together, it's not going really develop that quickly... HOWEVER, because of it's close proximity to land, I do believe the NHC will probably make it a sub-tropical depression or storm soon...
Quoting MississippiWx:


It's possible. With such a large area of low pressure, any area is capable of spinning up into becoming the dominant center. It would obviously feel more inclined to develop near the most intense convection. Still need more satellite frames to see if this is the case. Shear is still a good 25kts through the area, so anything developing near the convection could just as easily get sheared again.

And this thing is taking a big sip of dry air into the vorticity area of interest...Cold cloud tops streaming off to the SSE and convection waning near the vort as the dry air works into the (most recent) circ...
1064. pcola57
Interesting Conus land feature today..






1065. bappit
Quoting hydrus:
The heat out west has no sign of letting up.

Death Ridge.
1066. JRRP
the wave in the CATL is really impressive
1067. LargoFl
well its up to 50% now,local met just said in my area 5-7 inches of rain possible..now regardless of IF it does become a tropical storm or not, that's ALOT of water coming down in a day or even two days..many area's will see localized flooding events..and IF it stalls..my concern is for any waterspouts that form and come on land..which is always a possibility with anything tropical passing by..well we will see what happens...just stay alert and be prepared..stay safe the next few days........
Ft. Pickens, part of the Gulf Islands National Seashore, on Santa Rosa Island near Pensacola has preemptively closed. Ft. Pickens Road is frequently inundated by coastal flooding or buried in sand. Regardless of name or number eventually assigned, coastal impacts are anticipated.


Link
1069. bappit
Quoting hydrus:
I dunno. Might be something brewing under there..

I like that type of image. Looks like an outflow boundary moving SW from the area of convection.

How do you spell disorganized? O-U-T-F-L-O-W B-O-U-N-D-A-R-Y
Quoting bappit:

I like that type of image. Looks like an outflow boundary moving SW from the area of convection.

How do you spell disorganized? O-U-T-F-L-O-W B-O-U-N-D-A-R-Y


Aren't outflow boundaries a sign of ingesting dry air? I seem to remember one of Dr. Master's blogs about that a while back but might not be remembering correctly. I do remember they were signs a system was struggling.
1071. bappit
Yes. I figure the convection is collapsing where the boundary originated.
1070: Yes, this feature is most likely from dry air impacting the convection, killing the lift and causing a downdraft.
1073. zampaz
I am curious as to why the NW GOM doesn't have a lot of moisture. Is it the sea surface temperature or atmospheric temperature that is the biggest factor in convection and atmospheric saturation?
Thanks.
-z
I lurk the Wunderground.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1024 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

.UPDATE...
WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS. HEAVY CLOUD
COVER IS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING REFLECTS THIS WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RADAR
SIGNATURES SHOW ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MODERATE RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THIS DIMINISHING AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE PENINSULA AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH
CURRENTLY ONLY HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE LIGHT RAIN BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IT DOES SHOW SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. SO FOR THAT REASON WILL SCALE BACK ON THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
Quoting PRweathercenter:
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS HURRICANE UPDATE JUNE 5th 2013-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IMMINENT








I thought April Fools was two months ago?

Carl Parker on TWC isn't sure if this will be named, citing the GFS developing a second LLC to the east of the first one, resulting in an even more elongation of the system.
Just a novice opinion but aren't outflow boundary's at the surface? Seems the feature being talked about is in the upper levels and due to dry air.
1077. LargoFl
Huge area in this flood watch...............
Looks like 92L is in the offing. Very impressive wave we have in the C Atlantic.

I don't think I have ever seen a wave this strong in the C Atlantic in early June.
1080. sar2401
Quoting pcola57:
Sure is alot of dry air to 91L's West,North..
This invest has alot going against it..


It is noticeably cooler and less humid here in SE Alabama this morning after last night's storms. Seems as if this reinforcing shot of drier air will tend to keep 91L supressed and move it more to the east. The rainfall totals last night were very impressive, with areas clost me getting up to 5". I got a little less than 2" before the storms ended about 0300. Where there is moisture in the Gulf, there's a lot of it, so I think 91L will be a decent rainmaker in central and south FL.

My lawn looks much better this morning. I won't feel so bad once we get cut off from the Gulf flow as 91L moves to the south of me now. :-)
1081. ricderr
As to the formation, don't forget how floods are #1 weather related danger, so careful IF runoff occurs from Appalachians.


i KNOW WE LOVE HURRICANES TORNADOES ETC...BUT THE NUMBER 1 WEATHER RELATED HAZARD IS HEAT
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Just a novice opinion but aren't outflow boundary's at the surface? Seems the feature being talked about is in the upper levels and due to dry air.


You have to laugh at some of the post on here.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I don't think I have ever seen a wave this strong in the C Atlantic in early June.

Shows what it means for things to come.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like 92L is in the offing. Very impressive wave we have in the C Atlantic.

Agree, very rare event to say the least...
1085. pcola57
Looks at over 50 % very dry air in the GOM..



Currently 63.2 Powerhouse Fire Update 65% contained, 32,000+ acres burned.
June Gloom is here with a vengence...

1087. sar2401
Quoting PRweathercenter:
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS HURRICANE UPDATE JUNE 5th 2013-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IMMINENT







Don't be doing that kind of thing. If it's your opinion, that's fine, bur label it as such and lose the bold font. We don't want new visitors coming here and thinking that's some kind of official NHC update.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Just a novice opinion but aren't outflow boundary's at the surface? Seems the feature being talked about is in the upper levels and due to dry air.
What????? Outflow at the surface?????

17.04 Clock:
The tsunami disaster in southern and eastern Germany alone costs the Stuttgart SV SparkassenVersicherung first estimate around 40 million euros. The division of the SV extends over Baden-Württemberg, Hesse, Thuringia and parts of Rhineland-Palatinate. Most affected by the floods have so far, however, Bavaria and Saxony, where the SV insurance is not active. Munich Re does not want the flood damage have been quantified. There is still too early, said chief executive Nikolaus von Bomhard.


Lies mehr über Live Coverage: Flood in Germany - between fear and cleaning up - RTL.de bei translate.googleusercontent.com
Quoting sar2401:

It is noticeably cooler and less humid here in SE Alabama this morning after last night's storms. Seems as if this reinforcing shot of drier air will tend to keep 91L supressed and move it more to the east. The rainfall totals last night were very impressive, with areas clost me getting up to 5". I got a little less than 2" before the storms ended about 0300. Where there is moisture in the Gulf, there's a lot of it, so I think 91L will be a decent rainmaker in central and south FL.

My lawn looks much better this morning. I won't feel so bad once we get cut off from the Gulf flow as 91L moves to the south of me now. :-)


You got very lucky to get some rain. We're going on 4 weeks without rain along the coast in NW Florida. I had to increase my sprinkler times due to dry spots in my yard. It's hard to believe after the wet Winter and Spring we had.
1091. Torito
Finally, im back from graduation awards.... 3 hours straight of sitting in the same spot without getting up for anything.


Anyways, 91L:



97W:

1092. zampaz
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You have to laugh at some of the post on here.

I don't get the joke because I don't know what an outflow boundary is.
Please don't laugh at me when I ask silly questions.
I'm a noob trying to learn about our complicated atmosphere and the associated weather. A link or explanation is helpful for learning...meteorology is complicated subject even for those with a degree in physics.
1093. Torito
91L winds are now up to 35MPH, near TD status. This storm may have a shot at becoming andrea if this keeps up, and i hope the models continue to forcast the path up to MD, as we need rain up here.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1024 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

.UPDATE...
WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS. HEAVY CLOUD
COVER IS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING REFLECTS THIS WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RADAR
SIGNATURES SHOW ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MODERATE RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THIS DIMINISHING AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE PENINSULA AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH
CURRENTLY ONLY HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE LIGHT RAIN BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IT DOES SHOW SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. SO FOR THAT REASON WILL SCALE BACK ON THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
So basically no rain for South FLorida!!,this is truly unbelievable!!,we have 70%-80% rain chances for South & Central Florida for the last few days,and not a drop of rain!!,don't understand where this local Met's get their information!!!,seeing the Satellite looks like a lot of rain over Florida,but from the comments of the members of this blog,nobody is getting any rain!!!,we expent a lot of money to upgrade our forecasting tools basically to always get it wrong!!!!.
1095. barbamz
Quoting Luisport:

17.04 Clock:
The tsunami disaster in southern and eastern Germany alone costs the Stuttgart SV SparkassenVersicherung first estimate around 40 million euros.


Luisport, maybe you shouldn't confide too much in the automatic translation skills of google, lol. The flooding in central Europe surely isn't what usually is called a "tsunami". Feel free to correct those translations google is suggesting, before you post them here ...
1096. SLU
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like 92L is in the offing. Very impressive wave we have in the C Atlantic.



This wave indicates a busy Cape Verde season lies ahead.
Quoting zampaz:

I don't get the joke because I don't know what an outflow boundary is.
Please don't laugh at me when I ask silly questions.
I'm a noob trying to learn about our complicated atmosphere and the associated weather. A link or explanation is helpful for learning...meteorology is complicated subject even for those with a degree in physics.
Also called a gust front...

"A gust front is the leading edge of cool air rushing down and out from a thunderstorm. There are two main reasons why the air flows out of some thunderstoms so rapidly.

The primary reason is the presence of relatively dry (low humidity) air in the lower atmosphere. This dry air causes some of the rain falling through it to evaporate, which cools the air. Since cool air sinks (just as warm air rises), this causes a down-rush of air that spreads out at the ground. The edge of this rapidly spreading cool pool of air is the gust front.

The second reason is that the falling precipitation produces a drag on the air, forcing it downward. If the wind following the gust front is intense and damaging, the windstorm is known as a downburst.
1098. Thrawst
Rain.
Quoting Torito:
Finally, im back from graduation awards.... 3 hours straight of sitting in the same spot without getting up for anything.


Anyways, 91L:



97W:



Looks like Andrea now as winds are continuing to increase on the eastern side of the circulation and pressure is still dropping down to 1006 milibars. Some wind gust around 50mph now. Also the center is now on the western edge of the convection.



wikipedia.org/wiki/Outflow_boundary

would give more info, as well.
1101. sar2401
Quoting HuracanTaino:
What????? Outflow at the surface?????

If he's asking about outflow boundries from mesocyclones, yes, they are mostly at the surface.
1102. Gearsts
LOL
Quoting Gearsts:
Look at what i mean, we have our little COC very weak but the real thing is actually still very broad and elongated.Sorry if my english sucks!


It don't matter none!
Quoting 69Viking:


It's ridge setups like this that have convinced me to move further away from the water as I get older. I live in Fort Walton Beach, FL and right now I only sit at 10' above sea level about 150 yards from the water. I'm looking to move somewhere more in town further away from the water and at least 15' above sea level. I pray this ridge moves some before we get to the heart of the season!


Crestview is a nice area, close enough to the gulf and one of the highest points in FL.
1105. Torito
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Looks like Andrea now as winds are continuing to increase on the eastern side of the circulation and pressure is still dropping down to 1006 milibars. Some wind gust around 50mph now. Also the center is now on the western edge of the convection.





Actual wind readings according to HAMweather are between 35-38MPH sustained winds, so yea, i believe that it should at least be upgraded to TD at the next advisory.
1106. zampaz
Quoting seminolesfan:
Also called a gust front...

"A gust front is the leading edge of cool air rushing down and out from a thunderstorm. There are two main reasons why the air flows out of some thunderstoms so rapidly.

The primary reason is the presence of relatively dry (low humidity) air in the lower atmosphere. This dry air causes some of the rain falling through it to evaporate, which cools the air. Since cool air sinks (just as warm air rises), this causes a down-rush of air that spreads out at the ground. The edge of this rapidly spreading cool pool of air is the gust front.

The second reason is that the falling precipitation produces a drag on the air, forcing it downward. If the wind following the gust front is intense and damaging, the windstorm is known as a downburst.

Thank you!
1107. FOREX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Looks like Andrea now as winds are continuing to increase on the eastern side of the circulation and pressure is still dropping down to 1006 milibars. Some wind gust around 50mph now. Also the center is now on the western edge of the convection.





Any chance of this coming to Panama City area? We need the rain badly. Your opinion?
1108. sar2401
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Looks like Andrea now as winds are continuing to increase on the eastern side of the circulation and pressure is still dropping down to 1006 milibars. Some wind gust around 50mph now. Also the center is now on the western edge of the convection.




Andrea? Did I miss an update somewhere?
Quoting Hurricane1956:
So basically no rain for South FLorida!!,this is truly unbelievable!!,we have 70%-80% rain chances for South & Central Florida for the last few days,and not a drop of rain!!,don't understand where this local Met's get their information!!!,seeing the Satellite looks like a lot of rain over Florida,but from the comments of the members of this blog,nobody is getting any rain!!!,we expent a lot of money to upgrade our forecasting tools basically to always get it wrong!!!!.



Just light sprinkles so far again today here in Cape Coral, just a few minutes from the Gulf. Clearly these weak, sheared systems present tremendous challenges for the mets. One can only hope that between Debbie last year and 91L this year, they are learning something!!
1110. Torito
Quoting Gearsts:
LOL


Potential repeat of this current storm is what that suggests... Dont count on it though, as that is OVER 10 DAYS OUT.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Just a novice opinion but aren't outflow boundary's at the surface? Seems the feature being talked about is in the upper levels and due to dry air.


um, no. If a storm has outflow it is at the upper levels.

If you see "outflow" at the surface it probably means the convection has collapsed and the storm is dead. Stick a fork in it, she's done, kaput, etc.
Quoting Luisport:

17.04 Clock:
The tsunami disaster in southern and eastern Germany alone costs the Stuttgart SV SparkassenVersicherung first estimate around 40 million euros. The division of the SV extends over Baden-Württemberg, Hesse, Thuringia and parts of Rhineland-Palatinate. Most affected by the floods have so far, however, Bavaria and Saxony, where the SV insurance is not active. Munich Re does not want the flood damage have been quantified. There is still too early, said chief executive Nikolaus von Bomhard.


Lies mehr über Live Coverage: Flood in Germany - between fear and cleaning up - RTL.de bei translate.googleusercontent.com

Tsunami disaster???? I think they mean Flood disaster.
Quoting SLU:


This wave indicates a busy Cape Verde season lies ahead.
Oh that gives me the ibby jibbys to think what our CV season is gonna be like.If this wave that is this early in June is a sign of things to come then I say batten down the hatches and get ready for a wild ride this season.
Quoting barbamz:


Luisport, maybe you shouldn't confide too much in the automatic translation skills of google, lol. The flooding in central Europe surely isn't what usually is called a "tsunami". Feel free to correct those translations google is suggesting, before you post them here ...
But i don't know german... if you see a thing that deserves to be corrected, please correct it.
1115. hydrus
1116. Torito
Quoting FOREX:


Any chance of this coming to Panama City area? We need the rain badly. Your opinion?


Maybe, but several models are trending slowly eastward, over east florida and up the coast, or through central florida and up through the east coast on land. Your location may be just a tad bit too west to get a lot of rain. You want the NOGAPS model to play out on this one to get alot of rain.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Tsunami disaster???? I think they mean Flood disaster.
Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Tsunami disaster???? I think they mean Flood disaster.


It's a robo-translator. It probably can't tell the difference.
Quoting zampaz:

I don't get the joke because I don't know what an outflow boundary is.
Please don't laugh at me when I ask silly questions.
I'm a noob trying to learn about our complicated atmosphere and the associated weather. A link or explanation is helpful for learning...meteorology is complicated subject even for those with a degree in physics.


I don't think it's nice when people do this. Not everyone is a weather expert here. This chat room can get nasty at times and way off topic. There are other sites that stick to the topic at hand and are very educational. Storm2k.org is one that you might find very informative.
Quoting IFuSAYso:


Crestview is a nice area, close enough to the gulf and one of the highest points in FL.


That's too far from the water! I have a boat and enjoy my weekends boating in Destin and hanging out at Crab Island. Not going to tow a boat 30 miles to do that! A nice high lot in Fort Walton Beach is all I need!
The 12Z NAM keeping it very wet over Florida and many areas of the Southeast. Heck, even Southern Illinois will get in on some action. The previous runs of the NAM have backed off our region from receiving little in the way of any rain, but now have appeared to be back on the wagon. No complaints from the Oaks!! :-)

1122. Torito
BAMM model suggests multiple landfalls from this storm.

Quoting Luisport:
Link


"Tsunami" is not the correct translation.

A "Tsunami" is an earthquake generated wave, or landslide generated wave, or meteor generated wave. In general, its a water wave produced by a seismic or astronomical collision.
1124. Torito
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
The 12Z NAM keeping it very wet over Florida and many areas of the Southeast. Heck, even Southern Illinois will get in on some action. The previous runs of the NAM have backed off our region from receiving little in the way of any rain, but now have appeared to be back on the wagon. No complaints from the Oaks!! :-)



Rain for me too :D
TBW (Ruskin) is very concerned about the tornado threat for this area overnight and into tomorrow. I am expecting a tornado watch to be issued by later tonight for southern Florida, and then being extended north early tomorrow.

There are already some strong mini cells firing along I4, and plenty of shear in the atmosphere already... Just lacking instability attm
1126. Torito
Quoting FOREX:


Any chance of this coming to Panama City area? We need the rain badly. Your opinion?


See, just a tad bit east of you... I also like the models agreeing with each other even days out...

Link to good NWS Graphic on Florida Rain Potential.

Link
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's a robo-translator. It probably can't tell the difference.


It does appear to get it right farther down in the link provided.
1129. FOREX
Quoting Torito:


See, just a tad bit east of you... I also like the models agreeing with each other even days out...



Thank you Torito.
I still don't see this becoming Andrea. I really don't. There is just way too much dry air impeding the western half of this system. Any chance the thing gets at firing off deep convection near the center it soon results in collapsing because the entrainment of dry air in the upper levels has been persistent. I see this low being too broad, even yet. I don't think it'll have ample time to consolidate to get really organized. But that doesn't in any way diminish it's rainfall and tornado potential for Florida and also rainfall potential for the Southeast further on down the line.
Quoting OrchidGrower:



Just light sprinkles so far again today here in Cape Coral, just a few minutes from the Gulf. Clearly these weak, sheared systems present tremendous challenges for the mets. One can only hope that between Debbie last year and 91L this year, they are learning something!!
the main rain event has not occurred yet! Have you noticed that each morning a large thunderstorm complex forms to the NE of the center? Tomorrow that thunderstorm complex will fire directly over the western half of the peninsula, and probably Friday morning as well. The models weren't showing more than a quarter inch per day possible for your area this prior to tonight...
1132. RevInFL
A link to the counties in Central Florida under a Flood Watch.Link
Quoting Torito:


Rain for me too :D

Gotta get the rain dance going!! :-)
1134. Torito
Quoting FOREX:


Thank you Torito.


No problem, glad to help. :P
WIND SPEED IS NOT THE ONLY DETERMINING FACTOR IN CYCLOGENESIS.

Tropical Cyclone: A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

1. If anyone can explain to me how 91L fits this NHC-sanctioned definition of a TC, that would be much appreciated. I would disagree that this mess: is not a well-defined center. And for those of you who would like to believe the center has relocated to 25N 87W, I would direct you to post 1020 which shows only easterly winds where the new "center" is.

2. Surface wind observations indicate that sustained winds are above 33 kt, and so if by some miracle, recon gets in there and discovers a well-defined circulation, we wouldn't have TD1. Instead, 91L would jump straight to TS status.
1136. sar2401
Quoting RTSplayer:


um, no. If a storm has outflow it is at the upper levels.

If you see "outflow" at the surface it probably means the convection has collapsed and the storm is dead. Stick a fork in it, she's done, kaput, etc.

Not true at all. The usual use of the term "outflow boundry" applies to mesocyclones, and the outflow is at the surface. It's a classic downburst, and actually help thunderstorms grow. I don't know what outflow boundry you're talking about.
Quoting Torito:
BAMM model suggests multiple landfalls from this storm.

Quoting RTSplayer:


"Tsunami" is not the correct translation.

A "Tsunami" is an earthquake generated wave, or landslide generated wave, or meteor generated wave. In general, its a water wave produced by a seismic or astronomical collision.
well i don't have any fault on it!
Quoting sar2401:

I think it's exactly what was suggested - chaff. I have seen AF and ANG F-16's and Navy F/A-18's all day today flying north towards Huntsville. I know there is an air defense operational sector in the area of Redstone, so I suspect an air to air combat practice was being held. The fighters fire chaff launchers to deflect incoming missiles, and what's shown on the NWS radar is how the aircraft is meant to look to a missile's radar.
That blob seems to be concentrated right over some type of man-made lake! Did this blob move at all? If so, how fast did it dissipate?
1139. Torito
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Gotta get the rain dance going!! :-)


In the last 2 weeks, we have only recieved .4" of rain up here in MD. Seems really dry compared to average years for us...
man is this the typo & false info blog or what?
Quoting Torito:
BAMM model suggests multiple landfalls from this storm.


Bam Bam Bam. LOL
Booyah!!! 12Z GFS putting Southern Illinois near the 1" mark!!

1143. pcola57
Quoting sar2401:

It is noticeably cooler and less humid here in SE Alabama this morning after last night's storms. Seems as if this reinforcing shot of drier air will tend to keep 91L supressed and move it more to the east. The rainfall totals last night were very impressive, with areas clost me getting up to 5". I got a little less than 2" before the storms ended about 0300. Where there is moisture in the Gulf, there's a lot of it, so I think 91L will be a decent rainmaker in central and south FL.

My lawn looks much better this morning. I won't feel so bad once we get cut off from the Gulf flow as 91L moves to the south of me now. :-)


Good Morning sar2401..
There were dark clouds every where I went yesterday..
But I didn't get any precip at all.. :(
Glad you got some..
91L possible rainfall totals impress me..
Nothing else about is impressive JMO..
My lawn is getting the every evening watering..
Neighbors yards look horrible..
1144. Torito
91L looking good in this satellite, i really think it should be TD by now..

1145. WxLogic
Here's some detailed information Rain probabilities:

PoP_Discussion

PoP_Discussion_2
1146. barbamz
Quoting Luisport:
But i don't know german... if you see a thing that deserves to be corrected, please correct it.


The more you should be cautious to adopt those automatic translations and post them. A lot in those translations is misleading or - at least, as much as I can see - very bad English. I cannot correct all this stuff. Moreover, use your brains. If you have a look into the english coverage of the flooding events, you'll get a far more reliable impression on what is going on in my country. I've posted some links earlier. Anyway, all the time it's easy to go to "google news", insert f.e. "Europe flooding" or "Germany flooding" and you (and everyone interested) will find enough to read. That's why I myself won't post every detail from the lot of german live tickers (live blogs) in here.
1147. Torito
Quoting AussieStorm:

Bam Bam Bam. LOL


IKR? xD
Tsunami is a "harbor wave".
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's a robo-translator. It probably can't tell the difference.


Teachers at school know when a student cheated on their translations when the final version has words on it that is beyond the vocabulary or just doesn't match the situation. It can be quite hilarious to see a student deny the use of Google Translate.
GO NAM...st8 thru GA



Quoting Torito:


In the last 2 weeks, we have only recieved .4" of rain up here in MD. Seems really dry compared to average years for us...

OMG. I thought you guys did get something last week. Hang in there. I know how it is. BELIEVE ME! We were the epicenter of last years drought.
1152. Torito
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
man is this the typo & false info blog or what?


I always have typos in every single post, im too lazy to write like i do in school every day...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
GO NAM...st8 thru GA




Looking good, GA. :-)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Looks like Andrea now as winds are continuing to increase on the eastern side of the circulation and pressure is still dropping down to 1006 milibars. Some wind gust around 50mph now. Also the center is now on the western edge of the convection.



Never, ever say a system by it's name until it's official. You never know if this will become Andrea or not. I've seen better looking system that never got the name.
nam would supporta few GA mesocyclones possible but mostly east of atlanta in GA FL and the carolinas





1156. Torito
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

OMG. I thought you guys did get something last week. Hang in there. I know how it is. BELIEVE ME! We were in the epicenter of last years drought.


last week, we got .3", the storms dissipated right before hitting us, really upsetting. Thanks for the concern!
Quoting 69Viking:


That's too far from the water! I have a boat and enjoy my weekends boating in Destin and hanging out at Crab Island. Not going to tow a boat 30 miles to do that! A nice high lot in Fort Walton Beach is all I need!


I miss sitting at AJ's watching the charter boat catches of the day roll in. I worked Ivan and every hurricane since. FWB is too close for me.
Quoting barbamz:


The more you should be cautious to adopt those automatic translations and post them. A lot in those translations is misleading or - at least, as much as I can see - very bad English. I can't correct all this stuff. Moreover, use your brains. If you have a look into the english coverage of the flooding events, you'll get a far more reliable impression on what is going on in my country. I've posted some links earlier. Anyway, all the time it's easy to go to "google news", insert f.e. "Europe flooding" or "Germany flooding" and you (and everyone interested) will find enough to read. That's why I myself won't post every detail from the lot of german live tickers (live blogs) in here.
OK I JUST GIVE UP TO POST ON THIS DRAMATIC EVENT!
looks like a rainy weekend here in NS...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Why would you knowingly spread misinformation?
The person probably meant we have Andrea in the making...you are taking it literally.
1161. MahFL
Shear is down to 5 kts just SE of the center.
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!..........just a lil overcast here on the west coast of florida this morning..all eyes on 91L today i guess...............its time to review your hurricane preps for the coming season........found this prep list in case you dont have one yet........................................HURRICA NE KIT

Make sure your hurricane kit includes:

Flashlights & extra bulbs
Battery-operated radio
Battery-operated lanterns
Batteries (in different sizes!)
Matches
First aid kit
Duct tape
Rain gear
Clock (wind-up or battery-powered)
Plastic garbage bags
Fire extinguisher
Scissors
Can Opener
Clean clothes
Extra blankets
Heavy gloves
You forgot the laptop again! LOL
Quoting sar2401:

Not true at all. The usual use of the term "outflow boundry" applies to mesocyclones, and the outflow is at the surface. It's a classic downburst, and actually help thunderstorms grow. I don't know what outflow boundry you're talking about.


We're watching tropical weather, not cold core systems.
Quoting notanotherwrong:
every year for the past 9 years have been active if your a fish
Again, who cares!?
1165. pcola57
Quoting 69Viking:


That's too far from the water! I have a boat and enjoy my weekends boating in Destin and hanging out at Crab Island. Not going to tow a boat 30 miles to do that! A nice high lot in Fort Walton Beach is all I need!


I lived in Niceville for awhile..
I liked it..
Many launch sites..
I don't know about sea level though..
Quoting Waltanater:
The person probably meant we have Andrea in the making...you are taking it literally.


Some people (not Kori) actually read posts and take things literally. That's why you never post things with names attached until it is official from the NHC or any other authoritative source on a variety of topics.
1167. MahFL
Quoting Torito:
91L looking good in this satellite, i really think it should be TD by now..



You do realize all that cloud is not the center of the system, the center is 100 to 200 miles to the west.
NAM4 says 3-10" across FL, GA, AL, NC, SC, WV, VA, etc

flooding in AL FL and the carolinas would ensue
1169. MahFL
The blowup near the center got killed by the shear and dry air.


50%? Pfffftt. That's very wishful, very generous thinking. With 91L shear & dry air still rule. Nothing can develop, much less mature in that mess. TD at the very best. However, if by chance it did happen to get a name, it may serve to help create some early awareness for the "real" storms we'll face down the line.

Central Atl twave/blob more impressive than 91L. At least it's in a moist environment, but shear still rules there, too.
Severe weather in the long range looks minimal as an expansive region of high pressure sets up across the Southern USA.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Still has work to do to be a TD and time is running out.

Is there a deadline?! LOL
1173. bappit
Quoting sar2401:

Not true at all. The usual use of the term "outflow boundry" applies to mesocyclones, and the outflow is at the surface. It's a classic downburst, and actually help thunderstorms grow. I don't know what outflow boundry you're talking about.

The outflow boundary indicates evaporating moisture has cooled the air taking heat from the system. Convection could redevelop, but it has to recreate the column of warm air (if there was any) that is key to a tropical system.

A mesocyclone is a feature of supercell thunderstorms that rely on strong wind shear for formation. That's a whole different story from tropical systems. Mesocyclones are not related to outflow boundaries/gust fronts.
1174. sar2401
Quoting zampaz:

I don't get the joke because I don't know what an outflow boundary is.
Please don't laugh at me when I ask silly questions.
I'm a noob trying to learn about our complicated atmosphere and the associated weather. A link or explanation is helpful for learning...meteorology is complicated subject even for those with a degree in physics.

You should not have been given such sarcastic and curt responses. I'm not sure what you're refering to when using the term outflow boundry. If it's from a thunderstorm, then you are correct, outflow boundaries occur at the surface. If you're talking about a large system like 91L, you'll have to explain to me what you mean by the term, since low pressure systems don't normally have outflow boundaries.
Cant wait to break out the google earth recon for the first time this year
Quoting Waltanater:
Is there a deadline?! LOL


Less than 36 hours to reach the coast.
1177. Torito
Lots of rain coming, it appears...

Link
Quoting Torito:


I always have typos in every single post, im too lazy to write like i do in school every day...
Well, put some effort into the typing. That way, people on here can take you more seriously.
1179. sar2401
Quoting bappit:

The outflow boundary indicates evaporating moisture has cooled the air taking heat from the system. Convection could redevelop, but it has to recreate the column of warm air (if there was any) that is key to a tropical system.

A mesocyclone is a feature of supercell thunderstorms that rely on strong wind shear for formation. That's a whole different story from tropical systems. Mesocyclones are not related to outflow boundaries/gust fronts.

What the heck are you talking about? What outflow boundaries normally occur with a tropical system? The outflow boundaries I'm talking about are directly related to mesocyclones and occur all the time. Meoscyclones are the responsible agents for outflow boundaries and gust fronts.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

OMG. I thought you guys did get something last week. Hang in there. I know how it is. BELIEVE ME! We were the epicenter of last years drought.
I don't know where in MD he lives but here in D.C we've been getting good amounts of rain since Sunday with puddles still remaining outside due to Monday's heavy rain event.
1181. ricderr
if it makes a ts...it gets a name....people need to stop ridiculing others when their own posts are ripe for ridicule
1182. Torito
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't know where in MD he lives but here in D.C we've been getting good amounts of rain since Sunday with puddles still remaining outside due to Monday's heavy rain event.


I live here: Just south of the MD/PA border, probs about 10-15 miles away at the most.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Severe weather in the long range looks minimal as an expansive region of high pressure sets up across the Southern USA.

Maybe that could open up the door for tropical development like Scott was showing on the GFS mode in the caribbean/gulf...But again that is a long ways out..
Is the NHC naming tropical depressions this year? Another rules change I missed?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't know where in MD he lives but here in D.C we've been getting good amounts of rain since Sunday with puddles still remaining outside due to Monday's heavy rain event.

Glad to hear that. You'll always take it since you never know what lies around the corner.
1186. Xandtar
Looks like I won't be driving from my corner of SW Georgia to my job in Dothan AL on Friday morning, ugh.

Hoping we get wind but only a sprinkling of rain, every other model I see here varies on how much rain will reach Lower Alabama.

Quoting Luisport:
OK I JUST GIVE TO POST ON THIS DRAMATIC EVENT!


The flooding in Europe is certainly devastating and for those affected by flooding you have my utmost sympathy. Flooding is the worst. I hate to discourage people from posting here who might not have the best English skills because I appreciate knowing what is going on with severe weather in other places. I think we should be kind if there are language errors. It does no harm and it reflects well us as a weather community not be critical of others.
1188. WxLogic
Given that there's an HH scheduled to go out in 1 1/2 hours, then I wouldn't expect any official classifications until after 2:45PM ET or later... assuming the HH flight doesn't get cancelled and 91L has attain such organization for classification.
1189. Torito
Naa, TD ranked storms don't get names.
Quoting Torito:


I live here:

That explains it all then.You live closer to Doppler than me.Their was a young man also that lived in Northern M.D near P.A I think his name was Alcutino or something?.
Here is a great example of outflow boundaries associated with a tropical storm.
... Rip current risk through Thursday evening...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin has issued a
rip current risk... which is in effect through Thursday evening.

* Timing... through Thursday evening

* location... west central and southwest Florida beaches

* impacts... strong rip currents can pull even strong
swimmers out into deeper water.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

There is a moderate to high risk of rip currents through at least
Thursday evening.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away
from shore... which occur most often at low spots or breaks in The
Sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins...
jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards and the beach
patrol. Pay attention to flags and posted signs.

If you become caught in a rip current... do not panic. Remain calm
and begin to swim parallel to shore. Once you are away from the
force of the rip current... begin to swim back to the beach. Do
not attempt to swim directly against a rip current. Even a strong
swimmer can become exhausted quickly.





521 am EDT Wed Jun 5 2013

... Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday evening...

The Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southwest Florida and west central Florida...
including the following areas... in southwest Florida...
Charlotte and Lee. In west central Florida... DeSoto... Hardee...
Highlands... Hillsborough... Manatee... Pasco... Pinellas... Polk
and Sarasota.

* Through Thursday evening

* widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are likely... with
locally higher amounts possible through Thursday evening.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means that flooding is possible during the next
24 to 48 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take
action to protect property.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Is the NHC naming tropical depressions this year? Another rules change I missed?


if this gets classified...and not sure yet if there is a close LLC at the western part of the T-Storm mass...it will be probably Andrea due to ship reports of winds over 35KTs.. 1 ship found a 46mph wind far east of the old LLC
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Never, ever say a system by it's name until it's official. You never know if this will become Andrea or not. I've seen better looking system that never got the name.
Yeah it has to first be a storm before you can "track-her" Scott! LOL
1196. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
GO NAM...st8 thru GA




I think it's going to go ashore to far south of us and we'll be cut off from the Gulf flow unfortunately. It will trek across Florida from about Cedar Keys to Jacksonville and then out into the Atlantic to become who knows what. I actually think the BAMM has a pretty good track right now.
Regardless if this gets named or not the main impact will be lots of rain.



By the way Tropical Depressions do get names only after they become Tropical Storms and are downgraded.
1198. Torito
Quoting washingtonian115:
That explains it all then.You live closer to Doppler than me.


When we got .3" of rain from the last system that went through (first system that dropped rain for us in weeks), the ground was dry the next morning, and the corn jumped an inch higher like it always does when we get rain for the first time in a while. :P
Quoting MahFL:


You do realize all that cloud is not the center of the system, the center is 100 to 200 miles to the west.


Guys, what's wrong with you all? This comment should have at least 15 +s by now, as it highlights the common misconception that has been circulating for several hours here.

The storm is not as organized as everyone thinks.
Quoting Waltanater:
Yeah it has to first be a storm before you can "track-her" Scott! LOL


huh?
1201. SLU
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Oh that gives me the ibby jibbys to think what our CV season is gonna be like.If this wave that is this early in June is a sign of things to come then I say batten down the hatches and get ready for a wild ride this season.


Yep. The recent years with strong waves and tropical depressions in the deep tropics in June (2000, 2003, 2010) all had very active Cape Verde activity later.
1202. zampaz
Quoting sar2401:

You should not have been given such sarcastic and curt responses. I'm not sure what you're refering to when using the term outflow boundry. If it's from a thunderstorm, then you are correct, outflow boundaries occur at the surface. If you're talking about a large system like 91L, you'll have to explain to me what you mean by the term, since low pressure systems don't normally have outflow boundaries.

Another poster had commented regarding outflow from 91L at the surface. RTSPlayer explained thunderstorm outflow, and as you have been discussing with him there seems to be a difference with tropical events. I assume this is due to atmospheric low pressure over a sea surface with high temperature and a TS thus gets a lot of convection energy from the sea, as hot warm air rises to a cooler low pressure at high altitude...but it seems the outflow explanation RTSplayer provided would still apply to the boundaries of a TS or TD...thank you for your helpful discussion by the way!
1203. LargoFl
Rain is slowly moving up the gulf coast..........
Outflow boundaries result from a storm's downdraft...they spread out at the surface and are indicative of dying thunderstorms. They act as lift later, usually being a spark for the development of more convective activity.
1205. guygee
Station 42003
26.044 N 85.612 W (26°2'38" N 85°36'42" W)

Conditions at 42003 as of
(9:50 am CDT)
1450 GMT on 06/05/2013:

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in

5-day plots
Wind Direction
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
A nearby ship report:
SHIP 1500Z 24.70N 83.50W 34.0 kts 29.87"
1206. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
Here is a great example of outflow boundaries associated with a tropical storm.

Very interesting, Skye. These outflow boundaries are the same low level flows seen in terrestial thunderstorms. I guess a large low can act the same as a more localized area of low pressure in terms of creating outflow boundaries.
Quoting scottsvb:


huh?
not u
I think of hurricanes as nothing but large rotating thunderstorms of course not to be underestimated.
1209. yqt1001
We've gone a long time without a satellite loop:





I'm always very doubtful of any early-season development, being wrong 3 times last year, and I still can't say I think this will develop.
1210. zampaz
Quoting Skyepony:
Here is a great example of outflow boundaries associated with a tropical storm.

This rates a "Groovy Baby!"
Thank you very much Skyepony!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Outflow boundaries result from a storm's downdraft...they spread out at the surface and are indicative of dying thunderstorms. They act as lift later, usually being a spark for the development of more convective activity.

I knew the first part of what you wrote about downdrafts spreading out winds ahead of a line of storms. But what I didn't know was their potential to act as a lift later as you put it. Nice explanation. You have a good way of explaining things.
Quoting Waltanater:
not u


Oh your talking about the other scott guy that thinks this could be a 60-70mph storm or a Cat 1? Yeah I seen them posts the other day
yesterday's anomaly




the wierd thing was it changed shape and position with time

seems so tiny of a piece though.....sure it wasnt a militarytest?


Chaff, originally called Window[1] by the British, and D%uFFFDppel by the Second World War era German Luftwaffe (from the Berlin suburb where it was first developed), is a radar countermeasure in which aircraft or other targets spread a cloud of small, thin pieces of aluminium, metallized glass fibre or plastic, which either appears as a cluster of secondary targets on radar screens or swamps the screen with multiple returns.




maybe a new kind of floating chaff by the military to float longer



whatever it was it was practically invisible and seemed to blow with the wind.
Quoting LargoFl:
Rain is slowly moving up the gulf coast..........
Hello Largo!!,do you think that the center might be re-forming under the heavy thunderstorms? or the big blog!! to the East of the supposed center,it looks very impressive!! a lot of nasty weather!,don't see much future with the naked swirl about 200 miles west of the heavy thunderstorm,if this happens the system will move probably south of the projected path and closer to the center of the South west coast of Florida,just my humble opinion of what I see happening.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

I knew the first part of what you wrote about downdrafts spreading out winds ahead of a line of storms. But what I didn't know was their potential to act as a lift later as you put it. Nice explanation. You have a good way of explaining things.
Yes when tropical storms have good outflow it's as though they are breathing in and out.It can also act to later create a moisture field like whats seen with mature hurricanes.
1216. Torito
I'm thinking it wont get any stronger than 45-50 MPH max, and not even that unless if it can get into a better situation for development. So, maybe a weak tropical storm, but there is no way it will get to hurricane strength in the next few days before it gets destroyed.

Quoting scottsvb:


Oh your talking about the other scott guy that thinks this could be a 60-70mph storm or a Cat 1? Yeah I seen them posts the other day
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes when tropical storms have good outflow it's as though they are breathing in and out.It can also act to later create a moisture field like whats seen with mature hurricanes.
uhm not quite. If there are outflows coming out of a tropical system, it means the storm doesn't have a good enough structure to support continuous lift. The air should be coming in and up at the surface and out and down at the upper levels for a system to really get going, and that is not happening here with 91l
Sometimes I wonder if NEXRAD can pick up the swirling mess of flying cotton seeds released from the cottonwood trees this time of year. LOL :D
1219. sar2401
Quoting zampaz:

Another poster had commented regarding outflow from 91L at the surface. RTSPlayer explained thunderstorm outflow, and as you have been discussing with him there seems to be a difference with tropical events. I assume this is due to atmospheric low pressure over a sea surface with high temperature and a TS thus gets a lot of convection energy from the sea, as hot warm air rises to a cooler low pressure at high altitude...but it seems the outflow explanation RTSplayer provided would still apply to the boundaries of a TS or TD...thank you for your helpful discussion by the way!

Thanks to other members like SkyePony and TropicalAnalystwx13, I think I understand what you were asking about now. You are spot on in your understanding, or at least the way I understand outflow boundaries. The key point is they do occur at the surface, regardless of the initial mechanism, so your original question was not off the mark at all.
Good afternoon everybody!

91L is looking better this afternoon, but it's obviously still very broad and disorganized. I'd give it a 50% chance of ever developing.


Anyways, My dad and I will be on our way to Denver in a week for our first storm chasing tour with Silver Lining Tours! It would definitely be a highlight of my life if we end up seeing a tornado. :D
1221. Torito
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Sometimes I wonder if NEXRAD can pick up the swirling mess of flying cotton seeds released from the cottonwood trees this time of year. LOL :D


ROFL what about cicadas? There is supposed to be millions of them near me soon...
Quoting sar2401:

Very interesting, Skye. These outflow boundaries are the same low level flows seen in terrestial thunderstorms. I guess a large low can act the same as a more localized area of low pressure in terms of creating outflow boundaries.

It's typically associated with atleast momentarily weakening. In those two examples in that link both were interacting with dry air & SAL. There is certainly dry air there. This doesn't show much for dust in the area.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think of hurricanes as nothing but large rotating thunderstorms of course not to be underestimated.


They really are a rotating collection of severe thunderstorms.
Quoting pcola57:


I lived in Niceville for awhile..
I liked it..
Many launch sites..
I don't know about sea level though..


My son goes to FWB High School so that's why I want to stick to FWB. Plus I like it's location close to Destin where I like to hang out a lot. Both my wife and I work in FWB also. Good to see locals on here. With any luck this invest will bring us some rain but it might go to far East of us.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes when tropical storms have good outflow it's as though they are breathing in and out.It can also act to later create a moisture field like whats seen with mature hurricanes.

You mean like with an anticyclone parking over it to protect it from shear and help it breath the cirrus CLOCKWISE outflow? If so, then absolutely. But that outflow is different from what is seen from landmass thunderstorms from squall lines or derechos.

However, in my experience from observing hurricanes or strong TS on visible satellite (the RGB, instance), a quick outflow of low level clouds pushed away from near the COC is usually indicative of downdrafts caused by collapsing convection after dry air works it's way into the inner core of the system.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Is the NHC naming tropical depressions this year? Another rules change I missed?


LOL, great to see one of the old regulars in here. Kind of weird that we have a possible system so close and a lot of the old regulars are missing.
Quoting Torito:


ROFL what about cicadas? There is supposed to be millions of them near me soon...

ROFL. I heard about that! Good call. Maybe the advanced radar coming out soon will have advanced settings for this stuff. :-]
Here's a thought the mlc works its way down and forms a llc near the deepest convection.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
uhm not quite. If there are outflows coming out of a tropical system, it means the storm doesn't have a good enough structure to support continuous lift. The air should be coming in and up at the surface and out and down at the upper levels for a system to really get going, and that is not happening here with 91l
Wasn't talking about 91L that looks horrid.I was talking about mature hurricanes and how they can create a shield if you will of moisture to protect them self's from dry air and how the feeder bands/out flow shows a hurricane is healthy..


1230. Torito
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

ROFL. I heard about that! Good call. Maybe the advanced radar coming out soon will have advanced settings for this stuff. :-]


None here yet, but I bet they will be here soon. xD
1231. JRRP

da blob
NOAA To Revive Essential Weather Satellite on Thursday

An important weather satellite that went out of service on May 22 is expected to be brought back online Thursday, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The satellite shut itself down after suffering from an unknown, sudden disturbance that caused it to change its orientation relative to the Earth, and engineers have worked to troubleshoot the source of the error and restart the spacecraft.

The return to service comes just as a tropical storm may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. The satellite, known as GOES-13, is a geostationary weather satellite. It is designed to stay in a fixed orbit at an altitude of about 22,300 miles above the equator, moving at a speed that matches the Earth’s rotation. This allows it to keep constant tabs on the weather taking place across a particular slice of the planet. In the case of GOES-13, the satellite has long been assigned to covering the "GOES East" sector, providing meteorologists with valuable imagery and data on the weather in the eastern U.S. and the North Atlantic Ocean.

Additionally, NOAA operates polar-orbiting satellites that fly 540 miles above Earth's surface, circling near the North and South poles. The data from those satellites are especially vital for making medium- and long-range weather forecasts.

According to a satellite status update posted online, NOAA said the satellite will resume operations as GOES-13 on Thursday. While rebooting the satellite, engineers are also conducting a procedure to bring one of the satellite's key instruments back online in a more reliable way, since the satellite's sounding unit was providing slightly degraded data shortly before the satellite went out last month.

The sounding unit helps provide measurements of atmospheric temperature, winds, and moisture across large areas of the eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean, and that data is fed into computer models used for forecasting the weather. The sounding unit on the same satellite malfunctioned in September 2012, but it was repaired using a similar procedure.

As of May 31, NOAA had not found the cause of the satellite's disruption. The agency said it was considering all possibilities, including a collision with a micrometeoroid, or space junk.

“It doesn’t appear that there was any damage or any problem with any of the instruments on board,” Capt. Debora Barr, acting deputy director of NOAA's Office of Satellite and Product Operations in Suitland, Md., told Climate Central on May 31. “We can’t find anything wrong with it,” Barr said of the satellite.

To ensure that weather forecasts don’t suffer while GOES-13 is out of service, NOAA maneuvered a backup satellite, known as GOES-14, into place to cover most of the area covered by GOES-13. The plan is for GOES-14 to return to backup status once it is clear that GOES-13 is fully functional.

Preview of future satellite gaps

The satellite outage has once again provided scientists with a preview of what’s to come during the next several years as lengthy gaps in satellite coverage become more likely.

NOAA’s policy has been to keep two GOES satellites in orbit at all times, along with one backup. However, the first satellite in the next-generation as GOES spacecraft won’t be launched until the fall of 2015. Across-the-board budget cuts to federal programs, known as the sequester, may cause the launch date of the first GOES-R satellite to slip, which could result in a period without any redundancy in deployed satellites, as the current satellites begin exceed their design lifetime.

If the GOES-R series of satellites are delayed, that would put the GOES program on a similar troubled path as the polar satellite program. A year-long gap in polar satellite coverage is likely to come in 2017, potentially degrading the accuracy of medium-range forecasts. NOAA has said that without polar satellite data, simulations have indicated that the five-day forecasts for Hurricane Sandy would have shown the storm going out to sea, rather than veering sharply toward the New Jersey shore.

NOAA ran up billions in cost overruns for the next generation of polar-orbiting weather satellites, and delays and congressional budget issues have put that program, known as the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), years behind schedule.

The lengthy delays in NOAA’s satellite programs have led to efforts to open the weather satellite sector to additional privatization. A draft House bill would allow the government to purchase weather data from privately operated weather satellites, which would be a significant change from the current system in which the government procures the satellites from private companies, such as the aerospace giant Boeing, and then operates the spacecraft itself, freely distributing the data to the public.
1234. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
yesterday's anomaly




the wierd thing was it changed shape and position with time

seems so tiny of a piece though.....sure it wasnt a militarytest?


Chaff, originally called Window[1] by the British, and D%uFFFDppel by the Second World War era German Luftwaffe (from the Berlin suburb where it was first developed), is a radar countermeasure in which aircraft or other targets spread a cloud of small, thin pieces of aluminium, metallized glass fibre or plastic, which either appears as a cluster of secondary targets on radar screens or swamps the screen with multiple returns.




maybe a new kind of floating chaff by the military to float longer



As I previously posted, chaff seemed to be the mostly likely explanation. There were air to air excercises yesterday in the vicinity of Redstone Arsenal, and part of the exercise was undoubtedly launching chaff containers. The small piece pictured is just one of thousands that are in a single chaff container. The fiberglass is also impregnated with aluminum fibers, and the combination is very good at confusing the low power high band radars used by some air-to-air missiles. I don't know exactly what kind of containers were in use yesterday but some of them release the chaff over timed periods as the container heads for the surface, making the chaff field larger and last for a longer perod of time. The Hytop radar must have been just at the right place to pick a nice chaff field.
1235. xcool
no TD yet.
Quoting Torito:
I'm thinking it wont get any stronger than 45-50 MPH max, and not even that unless if it can get into a better situation for development. So, maybe a weak tropical storm, but there is no way it will get to hurricane strength in the next few days before it gets destroyed.



Yep, been posting that for days. It's in a inverted trough of low pressure. Shear has let up some also dry isn't as bad as yesterday but it's going to be inbedded in the main trough off the U.S. in about 24-30hrs. There will be a low developing this evening into Thurs but it's window of being tropical is over the next day or so. By Thurs evening it will start transitioning into more of a Baroclonic Low just when it makes landfall around the Big Bend down to New Port Richie. Thurs there will be sparadic tornados in central and northern florida with rainfall amounts near the coast and near landfall exceeding 5+ inches. This system will race NE Thurs night into Friday along the GA,SC coastline.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here's a thought the mlc works its way down and forms a llc near the deepest convection.

that's what is trying to happen now


850 mb lighting up
Loop:
Link

91L looking somewhat improved in organization this morning as shear is dropping and dry air begins to decline. Center is starting to fill in better with low clouds now which may be a precurser to thunderstorms re-aligning later on in the next 24 hours.

Regarding motion and location, based on the above sat loop I think this thing is quite a bit further west and more toward the central gulf than the models think. And there is still no closed center both of which make modeling this very tricky, given the dynamic in play with the upcoming trough and the fact that without a closed center the models don't ever initialize the way you want them to.

Initial motion seems to be stationary or slight drift NW by NNW.

Will be interesting to see what this looks like tonight given the dry air is dropping off and also the Navy infrared showing a better circulation.
Quoting Chicklit:

da blob
Very Impressive blob!!,wondering where is going East?,NE? or maybe a new center of circulation is trying to form underneath all this heavy convention?
This afternoons mission is a go with plane taking off at 3:00 PM EDT.This is the plan of the day for Thursday and Friday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT WED 05 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 06/1645Z
D. 28.3N 85.8W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0401A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 29.3N 83.7W
E. 07/0530 TO 07/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION
NEAR 33.0N AND 78.0W AT 07/1800Z

This is certainly a TD now.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wasn't talking about 91L that looks horrid.I was talking about mature hurricanes and how they can create a shield if you will of moisture to protect them self's from dry air and how the feeder bands/out flow shows a hurricane is healthy..



Feeder band & outflow boundary are two different thing. Look at this animation of I think Hanna..The partial circle short lived features, coming out in front of the storm are outflow boundaries. The shield of moisture/feeder band is what comes into view toward the end of the loop.
1244. FOREX
Quoting DataNerd:
Loop:
Link

91L looking somewhat improved in organization this morning as shear is dropping and dry air begins to decline. Center is starting to fill in better with low clouds now which may be a precurser to thunderstorms re-aligning later on in the next 24 hours.

Regarding motion and location, based on the above sat loop I think this thing is quite a bit further west and more toward the central gulf than the models think. And there is still no closed center both of which make modeling this very tricky, given the dynamic in play with the upcoming trough and the fact that without a closed center the models don't ever initialize the way you want them to.

Initial motion seems to be stationary or slight drift NW by NNW.

Will be interesting to see what this looks like tonight given the dry air is dropping off and also the Navy infrared showing a better circulation.

Which loop do you use to see the dry air?
Quoting Ameister12:
Good afternoon everybody!

91L is looking better this afternoon, but it's obviously still very broad and disorganized. I'd give it a 50% chance of ever developing.


Anyways, My dad and I will be on our way to Denver in a week for our first storm chasing tour with Silver Lining Tours! It would definitely be a highlight of my life if we end up seeing a tornado. :D



poor timing......

dont see a outbreak out there for a while....
1246. sar2401
Quoting Chicklit:

da blob
Da Blob...with an eye to the west....just kidding. It sure looks like 91L is losing the battle to the dry air and is being pushed more east than north right now.
Quoting sar2401:

Very interesting, Skye. These outflow boundaries are the same low level flows seen in terrestial thunderstorms. I guess a large low can act the same as a more localized area of low pressure in terms of creating outflow boundaries.


The driving force for outflow boundaries/gust fronts is the downward movement of an air parcel. If two gust fronts collide, the result is lift.

Don't confuse the terms 'upper level outflow' and 'outflow boundary'. They both have the outflow word present, but mean VERY different things.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This afternoons mission is a go with plane taking off at 3:00 PM EDT.This is the plan of the day for Thursday and Friday.





Yay! It's on. Been waiting on bated breath for this to come out. They waited long enough to release the POD today:)
Also of note the mid atlantic wave. Slightly more distributed thunderstorms today but a bit better turning at low levels.

GFS and navegem and CMC are both hinting that this wave may develop in the next 4 days so its something to watch, although all models are unclear on what path it would take.

Link

Quoting MeteorologistTV:
This is certainly a TD now.


certainly?
Center is now under the convection and sat. pics would suggest there are also 30knt west winds now as well.

1252. gator23
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
This is certainly a TD now.


I am inclined to agree. I think when the HH goes in they will find a depression. Code red at the next TWO and TD 1 at 5:00 PM
CATL wave is heading WNW.. despite its weak nature and the strong high. I don't like to see the rain going to fish land when it could be very useful somewhere else.
Looks like an anticyclone is developing over the center of 91L. That partially explains why it has gotten its act together last night and this morning. Wind shear is now at an ideal level for development.

A 70mph system at landfall somewhere near Cedar Key. This has been my thinking for days now.
1256. FOREX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Center is now under the convection and sat. pics would suggest there are also 30knt west winds now as well.



I for one really enjoy reading your posts, but it seems like mostly everyone disagrees with you in ragards to this disturbance. Anyway, I appreciate your insight and posts a lot.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This afternoons mission is a go with plane taking off at 3:00 PM EDT.This is the plan of the day for Thursday and Friday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT WED 05 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 06/1645Z
D. 28.3N 85.8W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0401A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 29.3N 83.7W
E. 07/0530 TO 07/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION
NEAR 33.0N AND 78.0W AT 07/1800Z



This afternoon's takeoff is at 1:30

C. 05/1730Z
Quoting gator23:


I am inclined to agree. I think when the HH goes in they will find a depression. Code red at the next TWO and TD 1 at 5:00 PM


If not Andrea as ships and bouys in the area are finding 40 to 45 mph winds.
Quoting 69Viking:


LOL, great to see one of the old regulars in here. Kind of weird that we have a possible system so close and a lot of the old regulars are missing.


Hello, Viking. Thanks. Good to see you too. I've lurked a bit the past few years, but this season's setup looks a bit worrisome, and thought I'd participate a bit this time, especially if the new moderating features are successful in keeping the bickering to a minimum, and keep the pot-stirring, rif-raf who never contribute anything positive to the blog off of here. We shall see, and I'm out again otherwise. Tough season ahead I believe, and we'll all need to be courteous and helpful to others.
1260. Dakster
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
This is certainly a TD now.


Source?

Did I miss the announcement from the NHC or is one coming up?
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
This is certainly a TD now.


I don't even know if this qualifies as a tropical disturbance, let alone a TD:

A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection -- generally 100 to 300 nmi in diameter -- originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.

Source
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



poor timing......

dont see a outbreak out there for a while....

I'm aware of that, but that doesn't mean I won't see one.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Center is now under the convection and sat. pics would suggest there are also 30knt west winds now as well.



I see a kink in the storms. Maybe the second low center has developed?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


This afternoon's takeoff is at 1:30

C. 05/1730Z


Thank you for the correct time.
Quoting FOREX:


I for one really enjoy reading your posts, but it seems like mostly everyone disagrees with you in ragards to this disturbance. Anyway, I appreciate your insight and posts a lot.


I have lots of experience with these early June Gulf systems as I have seen many of them come thru my area over the years. Gulf systems tend to ramp up faster than expected and I expect this to be the same. heck the CMC model had pressure down to 997 milibars on the OZ run last night.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Tough season ahead I believe, and we'll all need to be courteous and helpful to others.


Well said and I couldn't agree more ;)
Strap on your seat belts folks as we are in for a ride for the next 48 hours.
Quoting Astrometeor:


I don't even know if this qualifies as a tropical disturbance, let alone a TD:

A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection -- generally 100 to 300 nmi in diameter -- originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.

Source


I've seen classified tropical storms that have looked worse than 91L.
1270. sar2401
Quoting scottsvb:


Yep, been posting that for days. It's in a inverted trough of low pressure. Shear has let up some also dry isn't as bad as yesterday but it's going to be inbedded in the main trough off the U.S. in about 24-30hrs. There will be a low developing this evening into Thurs but it's window of being tropical is over the next day or so. By Thurs evening it will start transitioning into more of a Baroclonic Low just when it makes landfall around the Big Bend down to New Port Richie. Thurs there will be sparadic tornados in central and northern florida with rainfall amounts near the coast and near landfall exceeding 5+ inches. This system will race NE Thurs night into Friday along the GA,SC coastline.

It looks to me like the dry air impingement is increasing rather than decreasing. We are get ENE winds in SE Alabama now and the temperature is 84 with a dewpoint of 67. That's compared to 93 with a dewpoint of 73 at the same time yesterday. All this dry air (well, drier, really) is feeding into the Gulf now. The trough/warm front that dragged the drier air with it was over us last night and now appears to be stalled just off the coast near Panama City. Thunderstorms are firing off that boundry now but we just have a few baby showers in Alabama now.
Look at these cells that are popping near Orlando. These may need to be watched for rotation.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Center is now under the convection and sat. pics would suggest there are also 30knt west winds now as well.



no...center is not under the convection

1273. flcanes
Quoting tropicfreak:


I've seen classified tropical storms that have looked worse than 91L.

For example, TS Jose
1274. tkeith
It's early but there is plenty of warm water to cause some mischief...

Quoting tropicfreak:


I've seen classified tropical storms that have looked worse than 91L.


You gotta commend Astro on their attention to detail. It's how the NHC works...procedures, by the book.


Still a broad surface low with all the convection to the S and E.

NO convection near the low.
Dry air, shear, broken record...


1277. sar2401
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Strap on your seat belts folks as we are in for a ride for the next 48 hours.

What kind of ride do you think we are in for? Weren't you calling for this thing to be a strong TS by today?
Quoting sar2401:

It looks to me like the dry air impingement is increasing rather than decreasing. We are get ENE winds in SE Alabama now and the temperature is 84 with a dewpoint of 67. That's compared to 93 with a dewpoint of 73 at the same time yesterday. All this dry air (well, drier, really) is feeding into the Gulf now. The trough/warm front that dragged the drier air with it was over us last night and now appears to be stalled just off the coast near Panama City. Thunderstorms are firing off that boundry now but we just have a few baby showers in Alabama now.


yeah your behind the trough but the system is ahead of it and till move up along the trough Thurs-Friday. There will be a leftover LLV in the central GOM on Friday that will vissle out
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no...center is not under the convection



That's the old center and no this is not coming to the ATL.
Invest 91L isn't going to be a tropical depression or tropical storm today, if ever. It has yet to consolidate one well-defined center of circulation, and convection has yet to become organized and at least partially stacked over the low.


1281. flcanes
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no...center is not under the convection


This storm is still being sheared, if the center can get under the convection before 5 it will be classified a TD or TS
Quoting sar2401:

What kind of ride do you think we are in for? Weren't you calling for this thing to be a strong TS by today?


Nope. At landfall if you read my post. I said 60 to 70 mph at landfall yesterday.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Look at these cells that are popping near Orlando. These may need to be watched for rotation.



not yet scott....most of the dynamics won't take shape till later tonight into Thurs.
Quoting flcanes:

For example, TS Jose


That was after classification, Jose had already maintained tc characteristics when the shear ripped the t-storms away, a better example would be one that got classified with the looks of this storm.
I've seen dozens of systems like 91-L over the years and most of the time they do not amount to much more then a 45-MPH Tropical Storm coming ashore somewhere along the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area with just some heavy rain and gusty winds. And that's what appears this system is going to do if it does not get blown apart by strong upper level winds over the next 48 hours.
1286. flcanes
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 91L isn't going to be a tropical depression or tropical storm today, if ever. It has yet to consolidate one well-defined center of circulation, and convection has yet to become organized and at least partially stacked over the low.



The LLC isn't too far away from the low
1287. Dakster
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Strap on your seat belts folks as we are in for a ride for the next 48 hours.


*click*
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 91L isn't going to be a tropical depression or tropical storm today, if ever. It has yet to consolidate one well-defined center of circulation, and convection has yet to become organized and at least partially stacked over the low.




Recon will go this afternoon.Let's see what they find.
1289. barbamz
Some links to updated articles on the European floods:

Spiegel English (with new mind-boggling photos)

Euronews (with a new video)

The Independent: Thousands of Germans, Hungarians and Czechs evacuated as floods hit central Europe / 19,000 people have been evacuated from the flooding in the Czech Republic

This is a slow motion desaster. It will take at least a week until the crest of the floods will have reached either the North Sea (River Elbe) or the Black Sea (River Danube).
1290. xcool
no ts or td yet
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Nope. At landfall if you read my post. I said 60 to 70 mph at landfall yesterday.


Do you still hold by that prediction or not?
1292. K8eCane
Quoting seminolesfan:


Still a broad surface low with all the convection to the S and E.

NO convection near the low.
Dry air, shear, broken record...





Why in the HAY are they wasting a flight into this goop? Any idea?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no...center is not under the convection

I just don't know how many different ways this can be explained.

I guess we can just keep trying, huh GAStmz?
Quoting flcanes:

The LLC isn't too far away from the low

Depends on which low-level swirl you use. That in itself presents a problem.
Quoting K8eCane:



Why in the HAY are they wasting a flight into this goop? Any idea?



it's not wasted....
Been away since the am but pre-Adrea looking like she wants to ruin someone's day down the road......Inrestesting to see if She can pull it off. Don't like her location however; relativly short lead time for parts of Florida when she makes her move in whatever shape she is in; a very huge system at present that will impact large portions of the State.
I've been lurking Viking! Too many kids and trolls to comment
1298. flcanes
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Nope. At landfall if you read my post. I said 60 to 70 mph at landfall yesterday.

Well, if this thing develops within the next 12 hours, it will have a day to strengthen before landfall
Quoting Astrometeor:


Do you still hold by that prediction or not?


Yes I do. I am impressed on how 91L has organized over the last 12 hours. Once D-max hits then we should see a pretty solid pressure drop and blow up of storms over the COC.
1300. flcanes
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Been away since the am but pre-Adrea looking like she wants to ruin someone's day down the road......Inrestesting to see if She can pull it off. Don't like her location however; relativly short lead time for parts of Florida when she makes her move in whatever shape she is in; a very huge system at present that will impact large portions of the State.

I am actually getting some of the rain here on the east coast :(
1301. Dakster
Maybe that unmanned drone will go to. A nice test for it.
1302. flcanes
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yes I do. I am impressed on how 91L has organized over the last 12 hours. Once D-max hits then we should see a pretty solid pressure drop and blow up of storms over the COC.

Well yes, but should it become that strong it will need to be classified before then.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yes I do. I am impressed on how 91L has organized over the last 12 hours. Once D-max hits then we should see a pretty solid pressure drop and blow up of storms over the COC.


When do you think this will be?
1304. sar2401
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


If not Andrea as ships and bouys in the area are finding 40 to 45 mph winds.

We still need a closed low and one minute winds above 34 knots. The airplanes may find the winds but I don't think they'll find the closed circulation.
1305. flcanes
Quoting Dakster:
Maybe that unmanned drone will go to. A nice test for it.

Are you referring to those new ones?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Recon will go this afternoon.Let's see what they find.

There's really no need for recon. Satellite tells us everything we need to know because the low(s) are already exposed to view.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I've been lurking Viking! Too many kids and trolls to comment


there are really not many trolls at all....if this is too much then you may end up never posting in hurricane season.... lol...

never realized kids meant you couldnt comment either
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no...center is not under the convection


That's the old dissipating center, there is a new one to the ENE of that under the edge of convection... Still not completely convinced yet.
-HurricaneDean07
Quoting K8eCane:



Why in the HAY are they wasting a flight into this goop? Any idea?
Its a close flight, season is open, more data for models, want first hand obs of what the overall circ pattern is for verifications of early season model performance metrics...???

Just off the top of me head. :)
Quoting FunnelVortex:


When do you think this will be?


during the morning hours on Thursday.
1311. flcanes
Quoting sar2401:

We still need a closed low and one minute winds above 34 knots. The airplanes may find the winds but I don't think they'll find the closed circulation.

It wont be closed for at least a few hours. If convection cant wrap around the center by DMAX then this might not develop at all
1312. gator23
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yes I do. I am impressed on how 91L has organized over the last 12 hours. Once D-max hits then we should see a pretty solid pressure drop and blow up of storms over the COC.


D-Max was about 6 hours ago...
How anyone could say any sort of defined center is near or under the convection is beyond me. That is just wishful thinking. It's still a mess, but not impossible for it to form by tonight or tomorrow. This afternoon into tomorrow was supposed to be its best opportunity. If nothing changes by this afternoon, then its chances should fall significantly.
1314. gator23
D-max was 6 hours ago
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I've been lurking Viking! Too many kids and trolls to comment


Been back here the last couple of weeks or so, and I have to say I've found the discussions to be surprisingly thoughtful and informative. And some of those 'kids' are damn smart.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That's the old center and no this is not coming to the ATL.


But it's not the old center...this is what I don't understand with many who think this is a sure thing. The kink in the thunderstorm activity is not a new center. You can't disregard his statement that the center isn't under the convection when he posts a current map of observed surface winds which support his statement.
Quoting scottsvb:


Oh your talking about the other scott guy that thinks this could be a 60-70mph storm or a Cat 1? Yeah I seen them posts the other day
Yeah...lol.
Some interesting cells here S of orlando.

Quoting SLU:


Yep. The recent years with strong waves and tropical depressions in the deep tropics in June (2000, 2003, 2010) all had very active Cape Verde activity later.
Now what did I do with my Hurricane Supply List?Oh my I found it LOL.But however I did forget the instant coffee and creamer.But seriously we all need to be prepared this year for what looks to be unfolding as a very bad season.
If she never makes TD or TS storm status before coming ashore, she will still bring tremendous amounts of rain and gusty winds. In that case, I think that local NWS office would be issuing high wind advisories along with flood watches as opposed to NHC issuing tropical storm wind advisories or warnings.......Correct me if I am wrong.
1321. sar2401
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Nope. At landfall if you read my post. I said 60 to 70 mph at landfall yesterday.

I guess you think there are sufficient dynamics available for this to happen within the next 24 hours. I certainly don't, but I guess we'll all know by Friday.
The system is still geting better organized compared to 18hrs ago. Pressure is around 1006mbs and dropping and will probably bottom out around 1002-1003 Thurs morning. It's still a inverted trough. We had 1 swirl yesterday break off and dive SW... we have another today vizzling out...and another will happen again. There will be a LLC that will get pulled from the T-Storm mass Thurs NE towards florida..that's when we will see if this makes it to T.S. status. If recon goes in there today and finds a closed swirl within the western part of the T-Storms...this will be Andrea due to ship reports reporting over 35Kt winds but it's probably not yet cause it's elongated still.

Overall, it's a rainmaker and tornado threat to florida on Thurs into Thurs night. 50-50 on it being a TS...wish I can say less or more but it's really if this closes off a defined COC in the T-Storms. Models say yes but then will it be tropical before that happens still? Too many questions on this.
1323. flcanes
Quoting seminolesfan:
Its a close flight, season is open, more data for models, want first hand obs of what the overall circ pattern is for verifications of early season model performance metrics...???

Just off the top of me head. :)

Well yes. And it would help the models become slightly more accurate in the one area they have problems with: Intensity
1324. Dakster
Quoting flcanes:

Are you referring to those new ones?


Yes.... I found that an interesting idea and good use for them.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

That's the old dissipating center, there is a new one to the ENE of that under the edge of convection... Still not completely convinced yet.
-HurricaneDean07


I dont think those swirls are true centers....watch the large scale cloud pattern throughout the whole gulf rotating around the center i pointed out.
Quoting Ameister12:
Good afternoon everybody!

91L is looking better this afternoon, but it's obviously still very broad and disorganized. I'd give it a 50% chance of ever developing.


Anyways, My dad and I will be on our way to Denver in a week for our first storm chasing tour with Silver Lining Tours! It would definitely be a highlight of my life if we end up seeing a tornado. :D
"I'd give it a 50%..." LOL...isn't that what it's at now officially!?
Remember these 40-45 mph reports might be gusts. If this want to be Andrea, the winds have to stay above 39 mph for a minute AND have closed center. I don't think NHC hunter will find both.
1328. FOREX
Quoting sar2401:

I guess you think there are sufficient dynamics available for this to happen within the next 24 hours. I certainly don't, but I guess we'll all know by Friday.


Just a side note that the water temp in that area is up to 83 according to my local mets.
I know everyone is all happy and hunk dory, but there is no reason to start wish casting an getting all excited over a crappy little lopsided tropical low.
In some ways, I wish recon wouldn't find a closed low so you guys would maybe comeback to reality. It's really not that great of a system and won't amount to much as a tropical storm. Now settle down and stop the nonsense.
From Gulf Shores Fire/Rescue...
Another swimmer in distress response is active at this time. Our lifeguards are busy today. Please DO NOT go into the Gulf. The storm in the lower Gulf is producing rough surf and high rip currents.
1331. flcanes
Quoting sar2401:

I guess you think there are sufficient dynamics available for this to happen within the next 24 hours. I certainly don't, but I guess we'll all know by Friday.

I agree. It wont get any stronger than 50 mph barring a massive shear drop and a large exit of dry air.
1332. K8eCane
Quoting seminolesfan:
Its a close flight, season is open, more data for models, want first hand obs of what the overall circ pattern is for verifications of early season model performance metrics...???

Just off the top of me head. :)



makes sense because it is so close. thanks!
1333. JNTenne

Quoting washingtonian115:
I think of hurricanes as nothing but large rotating thunderstorms of course not to be underestimated.
Thanks for sharing.. who's next?   ;)
1334. Dakster
Ameister12: Have fun seeing Tornados... Stay safe. Apparently even the pros can get into trouble as of late.

1335. gator23
Quoting TylerStanfield:
I know everyone is all happy and hunk dory, but there is no reason to start wish casting an getting all excited over a crappy little lopsided tropical low.
In some ways, I wish recon wouldn't find a closed low so you guys would maybe comeback to reality. It's really not that great of a system and won't amount to much as a tropical storm. Now settle down and stop the nonsense.


I dont root for strong systems. I find any system fun to track regardless of strength this has been a fun watch.
Anyone know where to get GOES-14 Rapid Scan Loops?
1337. Dakster
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From Gulf Shores Fire/Rescue...
Another swimmer in distress response is active at this time. Our lifeguards are busy today. Please DO NOT go into the Gulf. The storm in the lower Gulf is producing rough surf and high rip currents.


Unless you want to be a Darwin award contender.
1338. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's really no need for recon. Satellite tells us everything we need to know because the low(s) are already exposed to view.

I tend to agree but I'm sure NOAA would like to get a few proficiency flights in before the long haul stuff starts later. Besides, what fun is is it having aircraft if they just sit around the tarmac? :-)
1339. flcanes
Quoting Dakster:


Unless you want to be a Darwin award contender.

lol. But seriously, DONT
Quoting K8eCane:



Why in the HAY are they wasting a flight into this goop? Any idea?


Just a guess K8. There alot of folks in coastal GOM that can potentially be effected by 91L so NWS wants to be sure they have a handle on what the invest is doing
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From Gulf Shores Fire/Rescue...
Another swimmer in distress response is active at this time. Our lifeguards are busy today. Please DO NOT go into the Gulf. The storm in the lower Gulf is producing rough surf and high rip currents.
My goodness there are red flags all along Gulf Shores.People stay out of the water for petes sakes.Praying whoever it is ,will be ok
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From Gulf Shores Fire/Rescue...
Another swimmer in distress response is active at this time. Our lifeguards are busy today. Please DO NOT go into the Gulf. The storm in the lower Gulf is producing rough surf and high rip currents.
Problem is that general public haven't heard about this invest. Also, they are on vacation in Florida and they loves to try to ride out the big waves.
1343. flcanes
Quoting sar2401:

I tend to agree but I'm sure NOAA would like to get a few proficiency flights in before the long haul stuff starts later. Besides, what fun is is it having aircraft if they just sit around the tarmac? :-)

Lol. The flight will be useful in giving info to the models, so that if it ever develops models can get a good handle on it
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
If she never makes TD or TS storm status before coming ashore, she will still bring tremendous amounts of rain and gusty winds. In that case, I think that local NWS office would be issuing high wind advisories along with flood watches as opposed to NHC issuing tropical storm wind advisories or warnings.......Correct me if I am wrong.


not wrong, flood watches have been posted for a while:
1345. JNTenne

Quoting sar2401:

I tend to agree but I'm sure NOAA would like to get a few proficiency flights in before the long haul stuff starts later. Besides, what fun is is it having aircraft if they just sit around the tarmac? :-)
Not sure this years budget will allow for proficiency flights...
im hearing comparisons to debby

Debby was a 50 mph ts, but hammered us here in Franklin County. It dont take much, and to be in the path to get some real effects. Also the tornado threat will be pretty high regardless.
TCFA issued:

WTNT21 KNGU 051500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N 88.8W TO 26.5N 88.4W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SLOW INTENSIFICATION
OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 392 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA, FL. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETRY ARE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS APPARENT
TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BE OF SHORT DURATION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, DRY
AIR TO THE WEST AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A SHEAR LOBE OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER WILL INHIBIT RAPID STRENGTHENING.

1348. flcanes
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Problem is that general public haven't heard about this invest. Also, they are on vacation in Florida and they loves to try to ride out the big waves.

Exactly. People need to look more into forecasts besides whether or not it's gonna rain


Goodnight all
Quoting sar2401:

I tend to agree but I'm sure NOAA would like to get a few proficiency flights in before the long haul stuff starts later. Besides, what fun is is it having aircraft if they just sit around the tarmac? :-)


They normally go out daily for training, there is a training flight currently. Last Ob
1351. flcanes
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TCFA issued:

WTNT21 KNGU 051500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N 88.8W TO 26.5N 88.4W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SLOW INTENSIFICATION
OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 392 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA, FL. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETRY ARE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS APPARENT
TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BE OF SHORT DURATION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, DRY
AIR TO THE WEST AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A SHEAR LOBE OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER WILL INHIBIT RAPID STRENGTHENING.


Might be a tad bit early for that, but okay.
Note: NOAA flight takes off in 28 mins.
Quoting gator23:


I dont root for strong systems. I find any system fun to track regardless of strength this has been a fun watch.
I agree that any system is fun to track, but it's not fun to see other people making up what they're saying and saying storm is "TD or TS now". It's nowhere near TD status and it got a long haul ahead before it can be one.
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Now what did I do with my Hurricane Supply List?Oh my I found it LOL.But however I did forget the instant coffee and creamer.But seriously we all need to be prepared this year for what looks to be unfolding as a very bad season.


Well, we all hope not. In the meantime check out the guide - especially if you're in Palm Beach County. A plethora of links...
1354. flcanes
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They normally go out daily for training, there is a training flight currently. Last Ob

It does not really matter, but this flight will at the minimum give them a grasp for this thing
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Problem is that general public haven't heard about this invest. Also, they are on vacation in Florida and they loves to try to ride out the big waves.


I always follow those signs at the beach when they tell you that it isn't recommended to be in the water because of rip currents, waves, or jellyfish swarms, or other dangers. Some people choose not to, and then these situations develop.
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
This is certainly a TD now.
Looks good...we should name it.
1357. gator23
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I agree that any system is fun to track, but it's not fun to see other people making up what they're saying and saying storm is "TD or TS now". It's nowhere near TD status and it got a long haul ahead before it can be one.


That TCFA would beg to differ.
1358. flcanes
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I agree that any system is fun to track, but it's not fun to see other people making up what they're saying and saying storm is "TD or TS now". It's nowhere near TD status and it got a long haul ahead before it can be one.

Totally agree. In general, I like it when a good strong storm spins up at sea and affects nobody, as it gets the heat out of the system for other storms
1359. flcanes
And now its pouring :(
I'm going to head out and wait for the better crowd to arrive, this really is dumb sitting here fueding over where the circulation is and wildly guessing and stating 91L is already a TD or TS or its going to get to 60-70 mph. Just makes me want to run in circles yelling and pulling my hair out. Check back when the next TWO is out. Play nice, and stop wish casting. :)
Quoting TylerStanfield:
I know everyone is all happy and hunk dory, but there is no reason to start wish casting an getting all excited over a crappy little lopsided tropical low.
In some ways, I wish recon wouldn't find a closed low so you guys would maybe comeback to reality. It's really not that great of a system and won't amount to much as a tropical storm. Now settle down and stop the nonsense.


The discussion on Invest 91L on this blog is giving an anatomy of system, analysis and thinking about things like these from which I am learning tremendously. From the probably to be failed attempt to TS status of this invest I think I will be more able to foresee whether next 'crappy little lopsided tropical low' will explode or not.

But perhaps I should from now on only read you and reserve my happy hunkydoriness strictly after your go ahead, thank you.
1362. flcanes
Quoting Astrometeor:


I always follow those signs at the beach when they tell you that it isn't recommended to be in the water because of rip currents, waves, or jellyfish swarms, or other dangers. Some people choose not to, and then these situations develop.

You cant control how some people react to things. You can only educate them on what they should do
1363. WxLogic
23 min for HH departure... as long as it doesn't get cancelled.
Link

RGB loop suggests two common centers still exist, one to the west and one closer to the convection, rotating about a common axis inside an open wind field. The lowest pressure will still likely be found west of the convection.

Seems to me that NHC recon will not find a closed low.
Quoting gator23:


That TCFA would beg to differ.
What TCFA? Can you post the link please?
AF exercises their planes every few days or so. They fly out in the Gulf of Mexico & throw a few dropsondes on a regular basis. This isn't much more than that.
1367. K8eCane
The people who issued the TCFA are the ones to listen to. For sure. They mentioned a " weak low level circulation"
I just saw a bunch of posts that said NOT. What the heck?????
They also dont expect much intensification.
1368. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From Gulf Shores Fire/Rescue...
Another swimmer in distress response is active at this time. Our lifeguards are busy today. Please DO NOT go into the Gulf. The storm in the lower Gulf is producing rough surf and high rip currents.

I was down there last week and the water was actually kind of chilly. I think it was 77 then, but certainly not warm enough to hang out long without a shorty wetsuit. People seem to love to go in and get in the big waves though.
1369. flcanes
Quoting Skyepony:
AF exercises their planes every few days or so. They fly out in the Gulf of Mexico & throw a few dropsondes on a regular basis. This isn't much more than that.

Yup. Isnt much more they need to do.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Do you still hold by that prediction or not?
STS also said it will be RED by 8pm last night which never happened!
Current Phase Genesis on latest GFS initialization still places the Low center further south and west of the convection. Will have to wait for the NHC plane data to go further.

Link


Likely going to be a Florida system given the steering situation but who knows.
1372. flcanes
I stand corrected, this storm may actually be something before 5.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
I'm going to head out and wait for the better crowd to arrive, this really is dumb sitting here fueding over where the circulation is and wildly guessing and stating 91L is already a TD or TS or its going to get to 60-70 mph. Just makes me want to run in circles yelling and pulling my hair out. Check back when the next TWO is out. Play nice, and stop wish casting. :)


Awww come on. Without the wishcasters and doomcasters, this blog would be no fun!

And don't forget, sometimes the wishcasters and doomcasters are right. Like with Sandy.
1374. FOREX
Quoting WxLogic:
23 min for HH departure... as long as it doesn't get cancelled.


If it gets cancelled I will personally hire a plane to go out to end the speculation.
1375. flcanes
Quoting DataNerd:
Current Phase Genesis on latest GFS initialization still places the Low center further south and west of the convection. Will have to wait for the NHC plane data to go further.

Link


Likely going to be a Florida system given the steering situation but who knows.

Well, if you trust BAMS, then dont plan to go to Mexico any time soon
Quoting TylerStanfield:
I'm going to head out and wait for the better crowd to arrive, this really is dumb sitting here fueding over where the circulation is and wildly guessing and stating 91L is already a TD or TS or its going to get to 60-70 mph. Just makes me want to run in circles yelling and pulling my hair out. Check back when the next TWO is out. Play nice, and stop wish casting. :)


What???
1377. flcanes
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Awww come on. Without the wishcasters and doomcasters, this blog would be no fun!

And don't forget, sometimes the wishcasters and doomcasters are right. Like with Sandy.

I consider myself a sorta wish caster, except I wish cast strong storms in the middle of nowhere. I dont like people to get hurt by storms.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
I know everyone is all happy and hunk dory, but there is no reason to start wish casting an getting all excited over a crappy little lopsided tropical low.
In some ways, I wish recon wouldn't find a closed low so you guys would maybe comeback to reality. It's really not that great of a system and won't amount to much as a tropical storm. Now settle down and stop the nonsense.


Come on! We're antsy! We haven't tracked anything in more than 7 months. This is the most promising thing by far that there has been for development this year. A good amount of people here reside in Florida (along with me) and are concerned about the impacts that we might get.

This system, regardless of development, will bring more impact than Tropical Storm Don, which I'm pretty sure you know being a texan.
Quoting sar2401:

I was down there last week and the water was actually kind of chilly. I think it was 77 then, but certainly not warm enough to hang out long without a shorty wetsuit. People seem to love to go in and get in the big waves though.


My parents always take me down there in November during Thanksgiving, air temps are always 32 degrees, I guess we are just bad luck or something. Actually have stopped doing that, did it for 3 or 4 years, quit because of shortened vacations due to school and florida being cold every time we visit during the fall.
1380. flcanes
Quoting FOREX:


If it gets cancelled I will personally hire a plane to go out to end the speculation.

lol.
it seems the rain maker, will make graduation in central nc less enjoyable!!!,, it has been 2 years, away from this blog, surprised that it worked!!!! be safe and b nice,, there is nothing you can do to change weather,,, just warn people about what might can happen,, cheers
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Whar???


MAX! Are you on a lunch break or something to be able to post here?

*what, just looking out for ya buddy. :D
1383. flcanes
Quoting fmhurricane2009:


Come on! We're antsy! We haven't tracked anything in more than 7 months. This is the most promising thing by far that there has been for development this year. A good amount of people here reside in Florida (along with me) and are concerned about the impacts that we might get.

This system, regardless of development, will bring more impact than Tropical Storm Don, which I'm pretty sure you know being a texan.

Exactly.
Quoting K8eCane:
The people who issued the TCFA are the ones to listen to. For sure. They mentioned a " weak low level circulation"
I just saw a bunch of posts that said NOT. What the heck?????
They also dont expect much intensification.


What about all the other things they 'mentioned'?

The lack of convection near the low, the significant shear still present, the dry air hurting development, and the fact that they said SPECIFICALLY its not organized enough for naming or numbering.

Just jump on the one line about a weak circulation. LOL
Quoting cRRKampen:


The discussion on Invest 91L on this blog is giving an anatomy of system, analysis and thinking about things like these from which I am learning tremendously. From the probably to be failed attempt to TS status of this invest I think I will be more able to foresee whether next 'crappy little lopsided tropical low' will explode or not.

But perhaps I should from now on only read you and reserve my happy hunkydoriness strictly after your go ahead, thank you.

I'm not trying to state that people shouldn't put out their own outlooks and forecasts, that would be hypocritical. I'm just sick of seeing posts of some that are stating things that are way far out of reality.
Sorry for offending anyone.
Just tired of it. Ill just ignore them and move on.
1386. flcanes
Welp, the rain has stopped here!
Looks like recon did a training mission in the GOM yesterday & exercised two different planes already today. One dropsonde SE of Houston, the other off LA.
Quoting mikatnight:


Well, we all hope not. In the meantime check out the guide - especially if you're in Palm Beach County. A plethora of links...
Thank you mikatnight.Everyone should definitely get a supply list together.If you haven't done so already,now is the time before the chaos begins.I have gotten all my supplies in my utility shed and checked the generator.I live close to gulf Shores Ala.and we know to be prepared at my house.
1389. K8eCane
Quoting seminolesfan:



What about all the other things they 'mentioned'?

The lack of convection near the low, the significant shear still present, the dry air hurting development, and the fact that they said SPECIFICALLY its not organized enough for naming or numbering.

Just jump on the one line about a weak circulation. LOL



YEP always try to tell the truth too. Did I lie?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Whar???

LOL sorry rant comment.
Quoting WxLogic:
23 min for HH departure... as long as it doesn't get cancelled.
Canceled due to rain! LOL
Quoting TylerStanfield:
I'm going to head out and wait for the better crowd to arrive, this really is dumb sitting here fueding over where the circulation is and wildly guessing and stating 91L is already a TD or TS or its going to get to 60-70 mph. Just makes me want to run in circles yelling and pulling my hair out. Check back when the next TWO is out. Play nice, and stop wish casting. :)


Welcome to a public forum of the WUnderground.. PUBLIC where everyone is a Meteorologist
If people are already complaining about the debates going on with 91L, they're not going to be able to stand the blog when there's a major headed for the coastline.

'It's rapidly intensifying and going west.'
'Stop being a wishcaster/doomcaster, it's going to recurve'
'No, it's definitely going to pump the ridge and strike the East Coast of Florida.'
'I see a new circulation developing near the Caymans. Rocket fuel down there.'

and on and on..
1394. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
What TCFA? Can you post the link please?

It's the Navy's Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert product. The current alert reads as follows:
WTNT21 KNGU 051500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N 88.8W TO 26.5N 88.4W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SLOW INTENSIFICATION
OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 392 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA, FL. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETRY ARE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS APPARENT
TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BE OF SHORT DURATION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, DRY
AIR TO THE WEST AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A SHEAR LOBE OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER WILL INHIBIT RAPID STRENGTHENING.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED
BY 061500Z.//

There are apparently some here that thinks this somehw contradicts the NHC's thinking. It doesn't sound like the Navy is overly excited about 91L to me. Anyway, the TCFA can be found here. While it's interesting and usually accurate, it's also important to remember that none of it is official information.
Quoting Waltanater:
Canceled due to rain! LOL


LOL!
1396. WxLogic
Quoting Waltanater:
Canceled due to rain! LOL


LOL my heart almost skipped a beat when I saw your post. So looking forward to see the HH go out. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If people are already complaining about the debates going on with 91L, they're not going to be able to stand the blog when there's a major headed for the coastline.

'It's rapidly intensifying and going west.'
'Stop being a wishcaster/doomcaster, it's going to recurve'
'No, it's definitely going to pump the ridge and strike the East Coast of Florida.'
'I see a new circulation developing near the Caymans. Rocket fuel down there.'

and on and on..


"pump the ridge" is my favorite. For some reason that makes me laugh so hard every time someone says that.
Quoting Astrometeor:


MAX! Are you on a lunch break or something to be able to post here?

*what, just looking out for ya buddy. :D


Yes Astro..
Lunch time. Thanks for caring


No HH into 91L scheduled yet?
Everyone needs to calm down, geeeesh. It is just a blob in the GULF. If it was August, then you should really be concerned. #wishcastingisawasteoftime
Quoting Dakster:
Ameister12: Have fun seeing Tornados... Stay safe. Apparently even the pros can get into trouble as of late.


Thanks! I'm not to nervous about safety, the last thing the chasers want is to get the tourist into danger.

Quoting Waltanater:
"I'd give it a 50%..." LOL...isn't that what it's at now officially!?

I fail to understand what is so funny about agreeing with the NHC.
Well, it's sort of raining here. Picked up a bit from the misty drizzle we've had for the last 24 hrs or so. It goes good with the humidity, which if it gets any higher I'll need flippers to get around.
Quoting K8eCane:



YEP always try to tell the truth too. Did I lie?


I wouldn't call it a lie. More along the lines of distortion of the 'big picture' painted by the TCFA.

But, that's just me. :)

Didn't mean any personal insult to you K8e.
Quoting FOREX:


If it gets cancelled I will personally hire a plane to go out to end the speculation.
1-way ticket?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If people are already complaining about the debates going on with 91L, they're not going to be able to stand the blog when there's a major headed for the coastline.

'It's rapidly intensifying and going west.'
'Stop being a wishcaster/doomcaster, it's going to recurve'
'No, it's definitely going to pump the ridge and strike the East Coast of Florida.'
'I see a new circulation developing near the Caymans. Rocket fuel down there.'

and on and on..


Dont we know that already...
(question mark)
Quoting Astrometeor:


"pump the ridge" is my favorite. For some reason that makes me laugh so hard every time someone says that.



What the bloody hell does that even mean?

"pump the ridge" Sounds like a bad 80s song.
Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:
Everyone needs to calm down, geeeesh. It is just a blob in the GULF. If it was August, then you should really be concerned. #wishcastingisawasteoftime


And hashtagging outside of Twitter is dumb. And wishcasting is fun :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If people are already complaining about the debates going on with 91L, they're not going to be able to stand the blog when there's a major headed for the coastline.

'It's rapidly intensifying and going west.'
'Stop being a wishcaster/doomcaster, it's going to recurve'
'No, it's definitely going to pump the ridge and strike the East Coast of Florida.'
'I see a new circulation developing near the Caymans. Rocket fuel down there.'

and on and on..
Yes, I'm the ones complaining that there are too much misinformation on here. However, you're correct. It's going to get worse as we start the hike toward the peak of season, unfortunately. I just thought I would never see this much misinformation going around the blog this early in season. This is why I keep my mouth mostly shut so I don't make false assumption.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

LOL sorry rant comment.


Lol and I screwed up with whar for what...
Lol
Anyone know what happened to HurricaneDean? I haven't seen him on in a while and I trust his insight...would like to know his thoughts on 91L.
1411. sar2401
Quoting scottsvb:


Welcome to a public forum of the WUnderground.. PUBLIC where everyone is a Meteorologist

Well, I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. :-) It does seem rather interesting that some of these rants come for students who identify themselves as "future" meteorologists. I wonder if they think about the concept that what they post on public forums may be used to make decisions about their future?
Quoting scottsvb:


Welcome to a public forum of the WUnderground.. PUBLIC where everyone is a Meteorologist

I've been commenting on he blog since 2010, and have been lurking since 2008. Not new to it bud. :)
Quoting KeysieLife:
Anyone know what happened to HurricaneDean? I haven't seen him on in a while and I trust his insight...would like to know his thoughts on 91L.
He's still here under new account "Tyler something". He still got HD logo as avatar.
OMG the SAL is so dense, the sky almost looks white (and there is NO cirrus clouds). Would love to get more fun like in FL, here is very quite WAY TOO QUITE lol.
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 16:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: 130605144448300 (2 digit year/2 digit month/2 digit day/6 digit mission start time/Last 3 digits of aircraft tail number)
Date Mission Started: June 5th in '13
Time Mission Started: 14:44:48Z
Observation Number: 04

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 5th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb
Coordinates: 28.7N 88.1W (View map)
Location: 132 miles (212 km) to the SSE (153°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 115° (from the ESE) 15 knots (17 mph)
1000mb 111m (364 ft) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F) 115° (from the ESE) 16 knots (18 mph)
925mb 793m (2,602 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 18.1°C (64.6°F) 120° (from the ESE) 23 knots (26 mph)
850mb 1,522m (4,993 ft) 17.8°C (64.0°F) 13.7°C (56.7°F) 105° (from the ESE) 18 knots (21 mph)
700mb 3,160m (10,367 ft) 9.6°C (49.3°F) 5.0°C (41.0°F) 100° (from the E) 15 knots (17 mph)
500mb 5,870m (19,259 ft) -6.1°C (21.0°F) Approximately -30°C (-22°F) 70° (from the ENE) 4 knots (5 mph)
400mb 7,570m (24,836 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde terminated within 25mbs of this level.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:44Z
1416. K8eCane
Quoting scottsvb:


Welcome to a public forum of the WUnderground.. PUBLIC where everyone is a Meteorologist


THATS the truth. Hey, I even try to be one sometimes. I'll practice more patience certainly.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I'm not trying to state that people shouldn't put out their own outlooks and forecasts, that would be hypocritical. I'm just sick of seeing posts of some that are stating things that are way far out of reality.
Sorry for offending anyone.
Just tired of it. Ill just ignore them and move on.

Only way. I know the feeling and actually sympathize (climate change debate comes to mind). Also maybe I was a bit harsh (while meaning a 'thank you' to the community). The reply referring to antsyness I really agree with :)

Btw if you get over a thousand posts on a feature like this invest, there are a thousand estimates of it becoming a TD, TS or H. I would expect these to be more or less gaussian distributed. Depending on the variance some voices will be far outliers, but they belong to the population like all others ;)
Quoting DataNerd:



What the bloody hell does that even mean?

"pump the ridge" Sounds like a bad 80s song.

Makes sort of sense for initiative to blocking patterns via meridional upper air warmth advection. Not relevant to the tropics.
Quoting KeysieLife:
Anyone know what happened to HurricaneDean? I haven't seen him on in a while and I trust his insight...would like to know his thoughts on 91L.

I'm here :)
1421. vis0
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You have to laugh at some of the post on here.

NOT DEFENDING, if some post what seems as incorrect info, AS i! But sometimes
discoveries go against what is known, why i luv science, its the "eternal adventure" & Wxu cause one is free to say today's crazy comments which could be tommorrows correct comment, but if one doesn't question all will never learn.


Remember the influx of dry air can make any storm weaker or stronger depending on
a few factors, here just 2 via my opinion..

What the dry air consists of (charged or not charged (no not Diners Club), not sure if modern science
understands this yet))

 AND how is it entering the circulation, i.e. from lower levels (by lower don't mean through
 the outflow area, but that drier air IF COOLER can lift any other air that is warmer). This
 can cause what i call a stored strengthening as it causes a rise in "clouds"  even though its dry,
 ITS COOLER air and only cooler air can EFFECTIVELY push up the
previous dry cooler air being the incoming cool air is cooler than the previous cool air
that now is blending into the circulation as the  heavier new cooler air wedges underneath
 the inflow into the vortex, this shows up as  many blobs but being these blobs have stored potential
 / ANALOGY: Those old big spinning tops
        & nbsp;  
 
 which as one pumped they spun faster then imagine a
 Dynamo spinning top where you pump it, the Dynamo stores the energy then you release the
 holding pin and AWAY WE GO.
well the holding pins are the cooler (drier) air bubbling up the inflow thus holding back the "horz." formation.
 
 There will be a test on Saturday, a Rorscach Test.
1422. marsHen
from my experience today, working at the cedar key field lab, monitoring the readings from the cedar key "buoy" (NOAA), and watching the winds clock from the east in the morning to the west in the late afternoon, plus the intensity of the winds, and the fall of the barometer, I have to say that tropical storm andrea made landfall just north of cedar key and tracked up the suwannee river.
for years I've watched storms get caught by the tide, or follow the gulf stream, or track up rivers. folks don't seem to pay much attention to this but it happens and should be taken into account.
it was an interesting day but the lab cat didn't like it at all...