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Large fire threatens Los Alamos nuclear lab; 95L headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:04 PM GMT on June 28, 2011

The dangerous Los Conchas wildfire has burned to a spot one mile southwest of Los Alamos, New Mexico, forcing the nuclear laboratory there to close, and the evacuation of 8,000 people. The fire was fanned yesterday by winds that reached sustained speeds of 21 mph, gusting to 30 mph, along with temperatures in the low 80s and humidities as low as 14%. The fire was 0% contained as of Monday night, and had consumed 176 square miles. Today, winds will be out of the south at 10 - 20 mph, which will tend to force the fire towards the laboratory. According to the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, these will not be critical fire conditions, and critical fire conditions are not expected to return to the area until Wednesday or Thursday. Smoke from the fire has blown over 1,000 miles downwind, and is causing air pollution problems in downwind regions of New Mexico.



Figure 1. New Mexico's Los Conchas fire (marked by the cluster of red squares on the left) sends smoke across a large swath of southern Kansas in this image taken at 1:40pm EDT June 27, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical disturbance 95L headed towards Mexico
Heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing over the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche due to a tropical wave (Invest 95L), moving west-northwest at 5 - 10 mph towards the coast of Northeast Mexico. Satellite loops show that the thunderstorms are currently poorly organized, and there is no sign of a surface circulation. Mexican radar out of Alvarado also shows little organization and no spiral banding. Wind shear has fallen by 5 knots to 20 - 25 knots over the past day, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow 95L to continue to organize, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to visit the storm Wednesday afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming. Several reliable computer models are predicting that 95L could become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before making landfall. Landfall will probably occur on Mexico's Bay of Campeche coast several hundred miles south of the Texas border on Wednesday night. NHC is giving the system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Development will be hindered by a large region of dry air to the west, associated with the great 2011 Texas-Mexico drought. However, the topography surrounding the Bay of Campeche tends to boost counter-clockwise air flow, enabling systems there to spin up faster than any other portion of the Atlantic.

There is a strong ridge of high pressure over the Gulf, which should act to keep 95L moving west-northwest or west, with impacts limited to Mexico and perhaps extreme South Texas. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches are possible over Brownsville, Texas on Wednesday. The main danger from the storm for Mexico is likely to be heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches, but the rain is likely to be more a blessing than a danger. Mexico is experiencing its worst drought in 70 years over 40% of the country, and wild fires have burned 500,000 acres in northern regions near the U.S. border.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 95L.

All-time dry air record set at Las Vegas
On Monday, Las Vegas, Nevada reported its driest air in recorded history, when the temperature hit 107° and the dewpoint reached -22° at 4:32pm MDT. This gave the city a dewpoint depression of 129 degrees, and a relative humidity of just 0.6%. The dew point depression is defined as the difference between the air temperature and the dew point temperature. The previous all-time record dew point depression for Las Vegas was 120 degrees set on July 2nd 2007. Not surprisingly, this record dry air is creating dangerous fire conditions, and much of the Southwest U.S. including Las Vegas is under a Red Flag Warning for critical fire conditions today.

Jeff Masters
Smoky Sunset
Smoky Sunset
Very smoky sunset from 49,000 Acre fire near Los Alamos NM. Los Alamos now evacuated.
Desert Heat
Desert Heat
The temperature ended up being 114 degrees in Sun City.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting IceCoast:


Are you referring to this? It shows several models predictions on the path of Arlene. Commonly referred to as the Spaghetti Chart.
Link


No, I'm talking about the model that predicts all the cyclones' paths this season without one even forming. Heh I remember last year that model took one into the Gulf Coast of Florida as a category 3, never happened.
Quoting Grothar:


Lately, not too many.


I think the better question is who is on here now that likes YOU? :p
1503. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


I agree, but hey, I think you're pretty odd yourself.


That has to be the nicest thing I heard all day. How you doing MS?
Quoting Grothar:


And I told you to go to bed!


And I said I get to stay up lol
1506. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


pot, shouldn't you be somewhere writing a book or something? How you been?

Been good actually.
The rains are holding me back with my current project to build a new Studio for the Lady to work in.
But it's going OK.

And I've been scribbling some notes.....
Quoting MississippiWx:


You should speak up more on here. :-) Heck, I don't really know what I'm talking about most of the time, but I talk. It's the best way to learn.


Yea, I am no expert. I am just on here to talk to other people who like the weather and hurricanes. I just am also here to learn as much as I can. I do have one thing though. I tend to have this "Instinct" thing which people in my hometown and some others online have notice. I have on friend in Kansas City which always goes to me when he wants to know about severe weather cause he says that if I say it is gonna happen then it will. My family knows the same. I can tell my brother in law 24 hours before rain is coming that it is going to rain and it will a day later. Then another day he can be saying it is gonna rain cause the weather people say so and I will be like, "Trust me, it isn't gonna rain" and it will not rain.

All I need right now is the links everyone uses to get a hold of computer models, Atlantic surface maps ETC which I can't seem to find. I actually have noticed that I tend to have an accuracy of around 80% when predicting things. the other 20% goes down to stupid errors because I am not as educated as everyone else and because of how unpredictable the weather is.

1508. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


I think the better question is who is on here now that likes YOU? :p


LOL. You always get me MSWX!
Quoting MississippiWx:
Satellite finally updated...Banding is really improving:



It certainly is a good sign. It will be interesting to see what DMAX does to Arlene tonight.
1510. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


You've been posting nice maps, Joe. Never saw those before.
Quoting pottery:
ZO!
Wat about this fire at Los Alamos?
If it gets into the place (from all reports, everyone has left...), does it get to burn all those old A-Bombs that are laying about in the carpark?

That should be fun....


Only fun if I can watch it on a big monitor from far away with good rum and a Cuban cigar.

j/k - Nothing fun about people's lives going up in smoke.
1512. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Been good actually.
The rains are holding me back with my current project to build a new Studio for the Lady to work in.
But it's going OK.

And I've been scribbling some notes.....


Did your concrete ever cure?
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Yea, I am no expert. I am just on here to talk to other people who like the weather and hurricanes. I just am also here to learn as much as I can. I do have one thing though. I tend to have this "Instinct" thing which people in my hometown and some others online have notice. I have on friend in Kansas City which always goes to me when he wants to know about severe weather cause he says that if I say it is gonna happen then it will. My family knows the same. I can tell my brother in law 24 hours before rain is coming that it is going to rain and it will a day later. Then another day he can be saying it is gonna rain cause the weather people say so and I will be like, "Trust me, it isn't gonna rain" and it will not rain.

All I need right now is the links everyone uses to get a hold of computer models, Atlantic surface maps ETC which I can't seem to find. I actually have noticed that I tend to have an accuracy of around 80% when predicting things. the other 20% goes down to stupid errors because I am not as educated as everyone else and because of how unpredictable the weather is.



As far as accessing maps, I'd look at some blogs on here. A lot of the guys that post maps and images have links to weather related sites. I have some on my blog, as a matter of fact. KeeperoftheGate has the motherload of information on his blog. Levi32 has a lot as well. I can give you a few here to models:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ index_carib.shtml
Looks like we could be dealing with Bret in the near future looking at the 12z GFS and ECMWF



1515. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Did your concrete ever cure?

Oh Yeah!
And the columns are about 70% done.
Looking forward to starting the Carpentry, maybe next week.
I like that part.
Got some good prices on GreenHeart for the floor.
Hard to work, but real nice. And almost indestructible.
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. You always get me MSWX!


Ha! You know it's all in fun. Anyway, I'm doing great for a college student. Broke as a joke, but loving life! How are you?
1517. aquak9
wolftribe- sounds like you got ahold of the best model of all- the GI model, aka "Gut Instinct".

Keep the Rolaids handy- ya might be gonna need'm this year.

1518. aquak9
double posting, sorry about that

hi Gro and everyone.
Asked this earlier and i'm still pretty curious.

How do the models initiate Arlene several mb's weaker then it actually is? I was under the impression that information would be entered manually.
1520. pottery
Quoting nopepper:


Only fun if I can watch it on a big monitor from far away with good rum and a Cuban cigar.

j/k - Nothing fun about people's lives going up in smoke.

LOL, but true about the losses being sad.
How come they dont get a swarm of bulldozers in there, and clear some 100' wide firetraces, and backburn????
Situation Update No. 7
On 29.06.2011 at 03:45 GMT+2

A wildfire burning near the desert birthplace of the atomic bomb advanced on the Los Alamos laboratory and thousands of outdoor drums of plutonium-contaminated waste Tuesday as authorities stepped up efforts to protect the site and monitor the air for radiation. Officials at the nation's premier nuclear weapons lab gave assurances that dangerous materials were safely stored and capable of withstanding flames from the 93-square-mile fire, which as of midday was as close as 50 feet from the grounds. A small patch of land at the laboratory caught fire Monday before firefighters quickly put it out. Teams were on high alert to pounce on any new blazes and spent the day removing brush and low-hanging tree limbs from the lab's perimeter. "We are throwing absolutely everything at this that we got," Democratic Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico said in Los Alamos. The fire has forced the evacuation of the entire city of Los Alamos, population 11,000, cast giant plumes of smoke over the region and raised fears among nuclear watchdogs that it will reach as many as 30,000 55-gallon drums of plutonium-contaminated waste. "The concern is that these drums will get so hot that they'll burst. That would put this toxic material into the plume. It's a concern for everybody," said Joni Arends, executive director of the Concerned Citizens for Nuclear Safety, an anti-nuclear group.

Arends' organization also worried that the fire could stir up nuclear-contaminated soil on lab property where experiments were conducted years ago. Burrowing animals have brought that contamination to the surface, she said. Lab officials said there was very little risk of the fire reaching the drums of low-level nuclear waste, since the flames would have to jump through canyons first. Officials also stood ready to coat the drums with fire-resistant foam if the blaze got too close. Lab spokeswoman Lisa Rosendorf said the drums contain Cold War-era waste that the lab sends away in weekly shipments for storage. She said the drums were on a paved area with few trees nearby. As of midday Tuesday, the flames were about two miles from the material. "These drums are designed to a safety standard that would withstand a wildland fire worse than this one," Rosendorf said. Los Alamos employs about 15,000 people, covers more than 36 square miles, includes about 2,000 buildings at nearly four dozen sites and plays a vital role in the nation's nuclear program. The lab was created during World War II as part of the Manhattan Project to build the atomic bomb. It produced the weapons that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


It certainly is a good sign. It will be interesting to see what DMAX does to Arlene tonight.


Yeah there was an area North East of Arlene associated with the hug blob of rain over the Yucatan that has spiralled around to the western side of Arlene now. You can see the bands wrapping from the Northern side of Arlene and the western side. Someone on here earlier mentioned some word related to convection that occurs in the mourning after 5 AM. It was not DMAX but the other one.
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
Looks like we could be dealing with Bret in the near future looking at the 12z GFS and ECMWF





Looks like it forms from a trof split. Several models have been hinting at that setup recently. I'm going to take the long range EURO forecast with a grain of salt right now, though, because it has been suspect at best recently.
1524. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ha! You know it's all in fun. Anyway, I'm doing great for a college student. Broke as a joke, but loving life! How are you?


Cranky!
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
Looks like we could be dealing with Bret in the near future looking at the 12z GFS and ECMWF





When is that set to occur? I thought the image said Friday.
Quoting Grothar:


Cranky!


Most old people get that way.
1527. pottery
Nice post, Skye.
Thanks.

Sounds a little dicey.....
We were warned about jellyfish & climate change!


Scotland~ Masses of jellyfish entering the Torness nuclear power plant's cooling water inflow area led EDF Energy to shut both units there manually on Tuesday, the company said. "This is temporary and the reactors will be restarted once the jellyfish situation subsides," a spokeswoman for EDF Energy said. The two 640-megawatt (MW) units in Scotland went off line on Tuesday afternoon, National Grid data showed.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


When is that set to occur? I thought the image said Friday.


Next Friday...that's 10 days out.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Yea, I am no expert. I am just on here to talk to other people who like the weather and hurricanes. I just am also here to learn as much as I can. I do have one thing though. I tend to have this "Instinct" thing which people in my hometown and some others online have notice. I have on friend in Kansas City which always goes to me when he wants to know about severe weather cause he says that if I say it is gonna happen then it will. My family knows the same. I can tell my brother in law 24 hours before rain is coming that it is going to rain and it will a day later. Then another day he can be saying it is gonna rain cause the weather people say so and I will be like, "Trust me, it isn't gonna rain" and it will not rain.

All I need right now is the links everyone uses to get a hold of computer models, Atlantic surface maps ETC which I can't seem to find. I actually have noticed that I tend to have an accuracy of around 80% when predicting things. the other 20% goes down to stupid errors because I am not as educated as everyone else and because of how unpredictable the weather is.



Feel free to check out this site as it has tons of links:Link
1531. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Oh Yeah!
And the columns are about 70% done.
Looking forward to starting the Carpentry, maybe next week.
I like that part.
Got some good prices on GreenHeart for the floor.
Hard to work, but real nice. And almost indestructible.



We're having our carpets steamed. That is my only project for the year.
Quoting Grothar:
Couldn't sleep. Who's on here that I like?

I'm here but not sure if you like me. drove home at 30km/h last night due to heavy heavy rain, even at that speed i had trouble seeing.
1533. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:
We were warned about jellyfish & climate change!


Scotland~ Masses of jellyfish entering the Torness nuclear power plant's cooling water inflow area led EDF Energy to shut both units there manually on Tuesday, the company said. "This is temporary and the reactors will be restarted once the jellyfish situation subsides," a spokeswoman for EDF Energy said. The two 640-megawatt (MW) units in Scotland went off line on Tuesday afternoon, National Grid data showed.

So in the meantime, what is cooling the rods/reactors ???????
Quoting aquak9:
double posting, sorry about that

hi Gro and everyone.


Howdy Aqua
Quoting SouthDadeFish:


Feel free to check out this site as it has tons of links:Link


Thank you

I also have come across Crownweather on this blog. That is an excellent website.

Arlene getting ready to enter a more favorable shear situation.
1537. pottery
Quoting Grothar:



We're having our carpets steamed. That is my only project for the year.

heheheheheh, Oh, the Confusion.....
Try and stay calm. This too shall pass!
Quoting Grothar:


You've been posting nice maps, Joe. Never saw those before.

Thank you Grothar
1539. aquak9
Quoting pottery:

So in the meantime, what is cooling the rods/reactors ???????

Peanut butter.

Bret? Already? I'd say, somewhere offa the east coast, offa Georgia or one of those, errr, two states above it?

anyway hi and bye ya'll, go in peace, sleep well.
Quoting pottery:
Nice post, Skye.
Thanks.

Sounds a little dicey.....


It should be all good. That place burnt down in the last 10 years without anything happening bad, that they told us about..





Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thank you Grothar


Pssst...He just forgets that he has seen them, Joe. Don't tell him I said that, though!
Quoting MississippiWx:


Looks like it forms from a trof split. Several models have been hinting at that setup recently. I'm going to take the long range EURO forecast with a grain of salt right now, though, because it has been suspect at best recently.


That is an Eerie Sign! 2011 has the same names that 2005 had. Now we are on Arlene right now but Arlene is in the area where Bret formed in 2005. Keep in mind that there was an area of disturbed weather earlier in the month that could have been Arlene but never came to be. Now 2005 also spawn Hurricane Cindy from July 3-7. Next Friday is July 8

Creepy!
Quoting pottery:

So in the meantime, what is cooling the rods/reactors ???????


It's only a 2 out of 5..they must have back up generators. The article went on about how they had to shut down to pull out a seal in the last month.



95L/ARLENE Havoc..

The torrential rains that fell in the last few hours in the southeastern Mexican state of Quintana Roo, brought on by a tropical wave, abruptly halted outdoor tourist activities, caused ports to be closed to small boats and flooded much of the state. Municipal authorities on Monday launched Operation Storm to activate contingency plans for flooded areas and safeguard those living in vulnerable districts. Maritime authorities stopped the sailing of small boats throughout the Mexican Caribbean as a preventive measure and hoisted red flags to warn bathers of the risk of powerful waves. The heavy rains and high winds brought on by the tropical wave began Saturday afternoon. Local police reports said that Saturday afternoon Fernando Perez Estrada, 48, from the U.S. state of Illinois, was drowned after rescuing his son, who had been carried out to sea by a wave. According to witnesses, the 5-year-old boy was playing in the sand very close to the water when he was swept away by a large wave, and though Fernando Perez managed to save his son, he had a fainting fit that kept him from getting back on shore and was drowned in the waves. Emergency-management officials in Quintana Roo said that more than 50 millimeters (2 inches) of rain have fallen on the Yucatan Peninsula.

The weather phenomenon is moving at 25 kph (16 mph) to the west-northwest and is expected to continue affecting the Yucutan Peninsula for the next 48 hours, “likely supporting strong showers/thunderstorms along with gusty winds when its intensity could increase as it enters the Gulf of Mexico,” according to the National Hurricane Center. Separately, some 495 homes were affected by the overflowing of a sewage canal as the result of powerful rains that lashed central Mexico over the weekend, a source in the teeming municipality of Nezahualcoyotl on the outskirts of Mexico City told Efe on Monday. On Sunday night central Mexico was hit by a downpour that lasted several hours, causing the Xochiaca drain to overflow and inundate houses with waste water in about 10 streets of the Sol neighborhood. In some homes the sewage was 60 centimeters (24 inches) deep, the source said, adding that some 4,000 people have been affected, of whom about 100 were taken to two shelters set up by the Nezahualcoyotl town council. Since Monday morning more than 600 workers have gone to the affected area, including rescue teams, firefighters and emergency-management personnel, to aid the people affected, who are not only being given food but also tetanus shots and vaccinations to prevent infections. Workers dug a channel to drain away the waste water and have so far succeeded in lowering the water level by some 40 centimeters (16 inches), the source said. He also said that if the rains should continue, as is forecast for the country’s approaching rainy season, the channel will keep sewage waters in the Xochiaca drainage system from again overflowing into residential areas.
1544. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:


It should be all good. That place burnt down in the last 10 years without anything happening bad, that they told us about..






Yeah, I am sure they cannot allow a problem there.
These fires are really becoming a Big Issue though.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


That is an Eerie Sign! 2011 has the same names that 2005 had. Now we are on Arlene right now but Arlene is in the area where Bret formed in 2005. Keep in mind that there was an area of disturbed weather earlier in the month that could have been Arlene but never came to be. Now 2005 also spawn Hurricane Cindy from July 3-7. Next Friday is July 8

Creepy!


2005 can kiss my bee-hind.
1546. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


Pssst...He just forgets that he has seen them, Joe. Don't tell him I said that, though!



Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thank you Grothar



I was referring to the models maps. Psst, and don't tell MississippiWx I said that. They really are good.
1547. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:


It's only a 2 out of 5..they must have back up generators. The article went on about how they had to shut down to pull out a seal in the last month.

Thanks, I read the article a moment ago.

Sad about the man from Illinois.
There was flooding in Norway & Philippines too..

Philippines~ A three-hour downpour late Tuesday night up to 1 a.m. Wednesday caused rives to overflow and flash flood up to more than 10 meters high in Davao City killing 4 persons, affecting about 10,000 residents and an estimated P5-million damage to properties, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte said in an interview on “In Desk Corner” on 990 AM DZIQ Radyo Inquirer on Wednesday morning. The four confirmed dead were two children (unidentified girl around 3 to 4 years old and unidentified boy around 6 years old) and two unidentified adults, a man and a woman aged around more than 50 years old, said Mayor Duterte. On-going are the search-and-rescue operations on the eight missing persons. She said the most affected was Brgy. Matina Pangi, where homes of about 40 families were washed out by the flash flood described as “lagpas bahay” (above the roof). She added the rescued families were immediately brought to evacuation centers. Matina river is in the said barangay. “It was not the first time that we had flash floods but last night, almost all the rivers in the city overflowed simultaneously,” Mayor Duterte said. Besides the Matina River, Davao City has Talomo River, Bago Creek, Aclihan Creek, Lybby Creek, Davao River, Taglonan River, Balo River, Lubogan River, Malogbok Creek, Daliao River, Lipadas River and Bayabas Creek. She said there’s no need yet to declare a state of calamity in the city. If there’s one immediate problem now it’s the nearly-collapsing Matina bridge. “It’s the one directly leading to the affected areas but we still have two alternative bridges,” she added. As of 5:56 a.m. Wednesday, Mayor Duterte said it’s surprising to see a sunny weather. “It’s (flash flood) like a thief in the night.” She said since the flood has subsided, most of the affected families are back to their homes cleaning up the debris and trying to recover what’s left of their belongings.
Quoting pottery:

So in the meantime, what is cooling the rods/reactors ???????
Jellyfish
It looks like banding is starting to take shape with Arlene, and once we see a large burst over the center, intensification should commence at a pretty quick pace.
00z GFS keeps the remnants of Arlene in the BOC for a while...84 hours:

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
It looks like banding is starting to take shape with Arlene, and once we see a large burst over the center, intensification should commence at a pretty quick pace.


Agreed, been saying the same thing.
1553. Grothar
Good night everybody. Let's hope this big high moves soon, or it will be an interesting year.

Quoting wolftribe2009:


That is an Eerie Sign! 2011 has the same names that 2005 had. Now we are on Arlene right now but Arlene is in the area where Bret formed in 2005. Keep in mind that there was an area of disturbed weather earlier in the month that could have been Arlene but never came to be. Now 2005 also spawn Hurricane Cindy from July 3-7. Next Friday is July 8

Creepy!



Also the Mighty Dennis a day later on July 4th. No way in H***, we can all forget about 2005. 2011 will be 2011 and like no other.

40-50kts still kicking hard over most of the Atlantic and Caribbean ATM.

1555. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:
Jellyfish

LOL, that would work...
They are cold little buggs.
Quoting BahaHurican:
The winds are blowing in a different direction, I think; NE and SE on the two sides of the ITCZ, and NE and SW on the two sides of the monsoon trough. So the monsoon trough ends up being more of a circulation than the ITCZ.... guess that's why Twaves generally don't develop while attached to the ITCZ - winds are wrong....

yep, that's exactly right.

Quoting kmanislander:
The thing about today is that when the system was not upgraded in the early afternoon it put one group of bloggers out of shape and then when it got upgraded soon thereafter it put everyone else out.

So, no one is happy. By tomorrow all will be forgiven.
I can't speak for others, but I believe the majority of the members of the blog enjoy when things get upgraded. Not because of the potential for a natural disaster, but simply because we are weather enthusiasts.

There was really only one person I saw truly upset with the NHC's naming of Arlene. Few others were surprised, myself included. But I can't get mad at them because this storm was going to become Arlene anyway, and recon recorded a closed circulation, ts force winds and convection (despite how limited it was) was present.
1557. Grothar
Quoting AussieStorm:
Jellyfish


Hey,Aussie, I forgot to tell you. I just found about another 200 relatives in Australia, which brings it up to around 500. I played that message you posted the other day, and you do talk funny!!!! Take care, got to get to sleep
Quoting MississippiWx:


2005 can kiss my bee-hind.


lol I am sure as to why you said that. Hey let us not mention 2004 cause some Florida people would be saying the same. Hope you stay safe this year.

On another note, I have been watch wind shear across the gulf, Caribbean and Central Atlantic decreasing dramtically over the past two weeks. Earlier in the month when we had the system trying to develop in the W.Caribbean there 50 kt or greater wind shear occuring. It was showing up in the "red and orange" area on the wind shear tendency. Now it has decreased to 20-40 kts and a model I saw earlier on a link is showing the wind shear deceasing more over the next week or two. ALso the same site showed that tropical favored areas will increase over the gulf and carribean in the coming days. This might be why we were talking about Bret up top.

Link
Quoting MississippiWx:
00z GFS keeps the remnants of Arlene in the BOC for a while...84 hours:


its been showing this..it tries to make landfall then it stalls and moves down and weakens idk what the heck the gfs is seeing
1560. pottery
Well, it's been Wednasday here for about 15 minutes, and there is a little squall passing through again.
Good weather for Ducks, and for Sleeping....

Keep Safe, all, I'm gone.
Pot,

Almost got down to your neck of the woods. Made it as far as the Southern Grenadines (Union Island) last year before having to head back to Canouan to catch a flight. Gotta figure out a way to move down that way ...
@pottery ~

Haven't heard anyone talk about greenheart in ages. There's a sailboat homeported here (cruising now)that has custom greenheart and purpleheart throughout. It's utterly gorgeous - a pet project of a guy with both time and money.
Well, I think I'm cranky, too....and I'm tired of that straggly looking Arlene ....if ya gonna be a TS, ya should try harder to look the part, I say..
1565. pottery
Quoting nopepper:
Pot,

Almost got down to your neck of the woods. Made it as far as the Southern Grenadines (Union Island) last year before having to head back to Canouan to catch a flight. Gotta figure out a way to move down that way ...

A lot of people fall in love at first sight.....
These Islands can be, er, um, Interesting sometimes.
Try one for a year, before you burn any bridges, is my advice!
Quoting wolftribe2009:


lol I am sure as to why you said that. Hey let us not mention 2004 cause some Florida people would be saying the same. Hope you stay safe this year.

On another note, I have been watch wind shear across the gulf, Caribbean and Central Atlantic decreasing dramtically over the past two weeks. Earlier in the month when we had the system trying to develop in the W.Caribbean there 50 kt or greater wind shear occuring. It was showing up in the "red and orange" area on the wind shear tendency. Now it has decreased to 20-40 kts and a model I saw earlier on a link is showing the wind shear deceasing more over the next week or two. ALso the same site showed that tropical favored areas will increase over the gulf and carribean in the coming days. This might be why we were talking about Bret up top.

Link


July should be a pretty active month, especially towards the end. We should have an active wave train with above average SSTs and lower than average shear. Some storms that you don't really count on are the home-grown ones that the EURO was showing at 12z. Those are the type storms that help boost the overall number of named storms.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Well, I think I'm cranky, too....and I'm tired of that straggly looking Arlene ....if ya gonna be a TS, ya should try harder to look the part, I say..


She's looking pretty good tonight. Banding has improved tonight and should continue through dmax.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Well, I think I'm cranky, too....and I'm tired of that straggly looking Arlene ....if ya gonna be a TS, ya should try harder to look the part, I say..

she is def trying. With 25kts of shear currently,Arlene has bands forming. I t should drop to 10-15kts tomorrow, I think she will look quite TS like in 24 hours.
1569. pottery
Quoting shoreacres:
@pottery ~

Haven't heard anyone talk about greenheart in ages. There's a sailboat homeported here (cruising now)that has custom greenheart and purpleheart throughout. It's utterly gorgeous - a pet project of a guy with both time and money.

Y'all are just trying to keep me awake, right? :):))

I have not heard of boats built with GreenHeart. It's really heavy wood.
And what I know about PurpleHeart is this... it does not last for long, when it is wet!

If the GH and PH are used for interior work, that would be fine, and very beautifull.
GH make a special floor, and polishes like glass.
Quoting pottery:

A lot of people fall in love at first sight.....
These Islands can be, er, um, Interesting sometimes.
Try one for a year, before you burn any bridges, is my advice!


Done the run a few times. But you're right. Haven't stayed in one spot for long - winds come up and time to move along.

Thanks for the advice.
Quoting MississippiWx:


July should be a pretty active month, especially towards the end. We should have an active wave train with above average SSTs and lower than average shear. Some storms that you don't really count on are the home-grown ones that the EURO was showing at 12z. Those are the type storms that help boost the overall number of named storms.


I actually have forecast 3 storms in July. I mentioned that on my Facebook. I also have found out that the sun has increased MCS activity which is what has caused the floods and severe weather over the US. One of these features was pin pointed by NOAA earlier in the month when it came off the NE coast and shot southward along the East Coast and cut across Florida. I have stated that the increase in these blob system might increase the amount of storms we have this year cause any of these that hold together once over the Atlantic could develop. It is like stalled out frontal systems which make it to the water and spin off tropical systems.
1573. pottery
Out!
te class='blogquote'>Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

its been showing this..it tries to make landfall then it stalls and moves down and weakens idk what the heck the gfs is seeing

Im waiting for the 00Z model to see if it changes it's tune
Better view of Arlene

Water Vapor sure reveals a lot

Link
To gain an appreciation for how much Arlene has organized over the last several hours, stop your loop and look at the first frame, then push the back arrow and look at the last frame. Arlene is getting her act together.
i'll take all u can eat crow please,no way in heck did i think we'd have arlene w/lack of sustained convection associated with her center and the dry air to her nw,no doubt this is looking like last years set up
1579. Levi32
Deeper thunderstorms firing east of the center:

Quoting Levi32:
Deeper thunderstorms firing east of the center:



Hey, Levi. Arlene is looking a lot better tonight. Will be interesting to see if the convection can get going over the center consistently.
GFS does show a system likely to be Bret. Sitting off Mex/Tx Coast on next Saturday/Sunday

Link

Link
1582. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey, Levi. Arlene is looking a lot better tonight. Will be interesting to see if the convection can get going over the center consistently.


Hey Miss. She definitely needs an inner core before the NHC prediction of 60mph can come true.
1583. Levi32
The next diurnal crash at this buoy will begin within the next 2 hours. It will be interesting to see how low it goes again in proximity to Arlene's center.

GFS has de ja vu in the BOC at 180 hours:



In that GFS 18Z model 84 hours out, it looks like it has a trof over baja california, trying to grab energy from Arlene, thus weakening her,Im not buying it, lets wait for new model
I agree getting much better orginized
Quoting Jedkins01:


Cause us knowing you lifted weights is important weather information? lolol
roasted!
Quoting Levi32:


Hey Miss. She definitely needs an inner core before the NHC prediction of 60mph can come true.


That's OK, let her be large and disorganized. We need rain here in S. Texas. Tired of mowing the dirt.
Quoting MississippiWx:
To gain an appreciation for how much Arlene has organized over the last several hours, stop your loop and look at the first frame, then push the back arrow and look at the last frame. Arlene is getting her act together.


Yeah she goes "poof" when put in backward. The current loop shows her going from where she is now to nothing.
Why did GFS initiate at 1008 mb's on Arlene?
Looks like it's going to be a very good D-MAX for Arlene.

Quoting IceCoast:
Why did GFS initiate at 1008 mb's on Arlene?
was this mornings model,or a brain fart?
Dmax is certainly helping Arlene tonight.

Man, the night shift is slacking tonight!
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Yeah she goes "poof" when put in backward. The current loop shows her going from where she is now to nothing.


I think the blog has gone "poof" for the night.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like it's going to be a very good D-MAX for Arlene.

I agree, Recon might find some surprises in the afternoon.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
was this mornings model,or a brain fart?


No, 00z initialized at 1008mb. I'm not sure if it matters all that much on global models as they aren't really forecasting intensity. I could be wrong though. I'm a little fuzzy on that area.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Dmax is certainly helping Arlene tonight.

Man, the night shift is slacking tonight!


Night court is now in session....
SOmeone explain to me what DMAX and the other one is all about if you would?

It would be good to get a convo going since it is so dead right now.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
was this mornings model,or a brain fart?


It was the most recent model run. Been wondering all night how that data is inserted into the model run.
Link
I'm part of the night shift...I'm here
AMSUB:

DMAX The flare up of convection seen during the early morning hours is known as diurnal maximum
Missing the closest Radar in http://smn.cna.gob.mx/

Link

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
I'm part of the night shift...I'm here


Hello, nice to meet you. Hope to talk to you more. Need to get a band together here who I actually know. That way I can join in on the convo more :-)
Quoting wolftribe2009:
SOmeone explain to me what DMAX and the other one is all about if you would?

It would be good to get a convo going since it is so dead right now.


The easiest way to understand is to think about the diurnal cycles of land and water. In the daytime, the air temperature is highest and is normally warmer than the water temperature below. This creates a "cap" feature in the atmosphere that limits convection somewhat. This is diurnal minimum. In stronger tropical systems, diurnal cycles do not matter.

Diurnal maximum occurs at night (wee hours of the morning) when the atmosphere has cooled to its potential. The surface (water) is warmer than the atmosphere above, creating instability which helps in forming thunderstorms. Hope this helps.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
SOmeone explain to me what DMAX and the other one is all about if you would?

It would be good to get a convo going since it is so dead right now.

Some good info here.
Link
10m Wind Meso-analysis is starting to pick up on some stronger winds of around 37knots in the NE quadrant.

Full Image




Quoting MississippiWx:


The easiest way to understand is to think about the diurnal cycles of land and water. In the daytime, the air temperature is highest and is normally warmer than the water temperature below. This creates a "cap" feature in the atmosphere that limits convection somewhat. This is diurnal minimum. In stronger tropical systems, diurnal cycles do not matter.

Diurnal maximum occurs at night when the atmosphere has cooled to its potential. The surface (water) is warmer than the atmosphere above, creating instability which helps in forming thunderstorms. Hope this helps.


I can certainly understand "cap" since I hear that term used with weather all the time when referring to severe weather (tornadoes). I do notice that convection explodes more often in the evening across the atlantic.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Hello, nice to meet you. Hope to talk to you more. Need to get a band together here who I actually know. That way I can join in on the convo more :-)

Hey nice to meet u too,I'm sure you'll learn things in here.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


I can certainly understand "cap" since I hear that term used with weather all the time when referring to severe weather (tornadoes). I do notice that convection explodes more often in the evening across the atlantic.


Now you know why!
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Hey nice to meet u too,I'm sure you'll learn things in here.


Just a hunch, but you couldn't possibly be the old btwntx guy, could you?
Convection continues to erupt around the center:

Quoting wolftribe2009:
Better view of Arlene

Water Vapor sure reveals a lot

Link


looks like that dry air getting pushed back north of Arlene
Good Gracious!

There sure is some HEAVY rainfall over Southern Mexico. It is revealed by the light green on this sat link

Link
Quoting MississippiWx:
GFS has de ja vu in the BOC at 180 hours:

Interesting. It first develops it 6/7 days out off of the Yucatan peninsula. After it crosses the Yucatan it hangs out in the BOC and then pulls it north thanks to a trough over the US and lands it in Texas in 10 days from now.

Even further out, it develops something West of the Yucatan peninsula in 300 hrs. It then has the storm cross the Yucatan and enter the BOC where it peaks at 1001 mb low making landfall in Mexico.


Noooww, this is way far out. But it is still very interesting to see that it is forecasting Bret and then Cindy to literally copy Arlene by coming from the monsoon circulation over C America and then entering the BOC/GOMEX region. MJO is also forecasted to hang out in our area by ALL the dynamic models for the next two weeks. Forecasted OLR anomalies also suggest that the MJO will remain in our basin until at least mid July.



Negative OLR anomalies generally give you a hint of where the upward phase of the MJO is. Regardless of the MJO, negative OLR anomalies directly signal areas of increased convection.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Just a hunch, but you couldn't possibly be the old btwntx guy, could you?

Nope,I'm a friend of his living in the same city of Brownsville,TX.He told me about this place and he said to give it a shot so here I am.He also told me He's still kinda of mad that he is still banned,he said he's change now.Btw nice to meet you MississippiWx.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Nope,I'm a friend of his living in the same city of Brownsville,TX.He told me about this place and he said to give it a shot so here I am.He also told me He's still kinda of mad that he is still banned,he said he's change now.Btw nice to meet you MississippiWx.


I figured he must have been banned. He used to be a regular. Nice to meet you as well.
Might see an increase in wind speed/lower in pressure at 2a.m with the recent developments on satellite imagery.
Pinhole eye? Lol.

Quoting MississippiWx:


I figured he must have been banned. He used to be a regular. Nice to meet you as well.

Thanks,It does look like Arlene is organzing nicely tonight.
Or not, lol.

...ARLENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
No change at the 1:00AM advisory. Should be about 50mph by 4AM.
Is their a way to post pics saved to my computer, on here?
At Arlene's current rate of speed and distance from Mexico, it should be making landfall in about 30 hours. Speed will fluctuate, and so will the time, so 30 hours is not set in stone, but it definitely gives you an idea as to how long it will have over water.
Quoting sunlinepr:
can you post that link please?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Or not, lol.

...ARLENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


It's most likely stronger than that now. Would be nice to have recon in there earlier tomorrow. I'm more and more impressed with each passing image.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Interesting. It first develops it 6/7 days out off of the Yucatan peninsula. After it crosses the Yucatan it hangs out in the BOC and then pulls it north thanks to a trough over the US and lands it in Texas in 10 days from now.

Even further out, it develops something West of the Yucatan peninsula in 300 hrs. It then has the storm cross the Yucatan and enter the BOC where it peaks at 1001 mb low making landfall in Mexico.


Noooww, this is way far out. But it is still very interesting to see that it is forecasting Bret and then Cindy to literally copy Arlene by coming from the monsoon circulation over C America and then entering the BOC/GOMEX region. MJO is also forecasted to hang out in our area by ALL the dynamic models for the next two weeks. Forecasted OLR anomalies also suggest that the MJO will remain in our basin until at least mid July.



Negative OLR anomalies generally give you a hint of where the upward phase of the MJO is. Regardless of the MJO, negative OLR anomalies directly signal areas of increased convection.


mojo rising,mojo rising
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is their a way to post pics saved to my computer, on here?
Yes, but you have to upload them first to a site like Tinypic or ImageShack. When you upload a saved picture on your computer to one of these sites it will give you the url for the image. Copy the url provided by the website and paste it into the image box which pops up when you hit the image button circled below



hope this helps!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
can you post that link please?


Here, GFS and NAM.... Link

850mb Temp/Precip, 00z, GFS, 228hrs, copy and paste into blog will show...

Quoting MississippiWx:


It's most likely stronger than that now. Would be nice to have recon in there earlier tomorrow. I'm more and more impressed with each passing image.
I agree. The structure continues to improve, so I definitely believe that some sort of intensification is currently occurring with Arlene. I'll likely be awake until 5a.m so let's see how it continues to progress...
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes, but you have to upload them first to a site like Tinypic or ImageShack. When you upload a saved picture on your computer to one of these sites it will give you the url for the image. Copy the url and paste it into the image box which pops up when you hit the image button circled below



hope this helps

thank you very much Tom
Quoting MississippiWx:


It's most likely stronger than that now. Would be nice to have recon in there earlier tomorrow. I'm more and more impressed with each passing image.

I agree too.
1636. JLPR2
My last year's fellow night shift seem to be neglecting their duty this year. xD
Quoting sunlinepr:


Here, GFS and NAM.... Link


and thank you very much also.....nite crowd seems a nicer group, after all the bickering today....lol...thanks again
Convection has definitely improved


ir image from ~6 hrs ago



latest image

Arlene wants to become a full grown hurricane. I think if she has enough time over water she can accomplish this.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

thank you very much Tom
no problem
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
40 knot winds showing up...


Circulation seems to be tightening up very well, despite still being a bit elongated towards the west.

I'm sure you get asked this question a billion times, but, what program is that?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Or not, lol.

...ARLENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


It's going to take a little bit for the winds to come up.
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Arlene wants to become a full grown hurricane. I think if she has enough time over water she can accomplish this.
Well if she stayed there long enough, she could probably reach major status lol

only thing is, she wont be over water much longer. By this time Friday (or 48 hrs from now), she should be well overland.

Who knows though, storms definitely can spin up fast in the Bay of Campeche and there is a very slight chance it will reach hurricane status. NHC forecast reflects this, giving it a 7% chance of reaching hurricane status



those are some pretty low chances though
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Circulation seems to be tightening up very well, despite still being a bit elongated towards the west.

I'm sure you get asked this question a billion times, but, what program is that?


It's GREarth.

Amazing program.
Quoting MississippiWx:
GFS has de ja vu in the BOC at 180 hours:



Could that mean Mexico/Texas will be hardest hit this season. Because at least in the near-future, looks like the Bay Of Camapche and/or Western Caribbean will be full of tropical activity. If this zone of formation shifts East, then Florida will be in danger as well.
Drag this image to a new tab in your browser



Bookmark it.
Every time you click on the bookmark you will get it back...

refresh it, right click on it

Select copy image location and
paste it as an image in the blog...

You can do the same procedure with every Gif animation posted here by any blogger...

You can make your own collection of animated Gifs and have them ready to post...


Quoting TomTaylor:
those are some pretty low chances though


Yup pretty low.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


and thank you very much also.....nite crowd seems a nicer group, after all the bickering today....lol...thanks again


We are here to learn and to help...
Um I didn't mean to make that comment bold, sorry...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It's GREarth.

Amazing program.
is that a free program?
I wouldn't be surprised if Arlene makes it to minimal cane status going by her latest satellite presentation.
Quoting JLPR2:
My last year's fellow night shift seem to be neglecting their duty this year. xD


hey. quit yer whining eh ;)

we got an arlene ... im so far east from the cone i won't even smell it.

eyes out to all my fellows on the path.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It's GREarth.

Amazing program.
Oh ok, thanks man.

Being that it's another program that only runs on Windows, I need to purchase Parallels Desktop too, but it looks well worth it.
Blah...I want to go to sleep, but Arlene has me mesmerized. Typical woman...lol.
00z HWRF brings Arlene to 75 knots.

Quoting TomTaylor:
is that a free program?
(Post 1658). You can download some 21 day free-trial's here though.
Quoting TomTaylor:
is that a free program?


$180 /yr
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z HWRF brings Arlene to 75 knots.



If the current rate of organization/intensification continues, that's not out of the realm of possibilities. I'd think more like 65kts, though.
Impressive.

900hpa winds...not surface.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


$180 /yr
oh wow.


It does look nice, but I'm sure all that data is available online somewhere, they just present it in a nicer looking and more convenient manner...which isn't worth it to me lol
I hate the South death ridge. Arlene would be the perfect solution to ALL of our drought problems. She's such a huge, slow moving storm.
I wonder how accurate images from GREarth like this one are




because unless it's using old wind data from ascat, windsat, or the recon plane, there are no realtime buoys or weather stations to make these observations.
Not out of the realm of possibility...if Arlene continues to organize and deepen before landfall. The HWRF could be real close.
Nice little line of storms about to push through my area.

Quoting TomTaylor:
I wonder how accurate images from GREarth like this one are



It's based off the RUC, so as accurate as it gets...

That's not even a tenth of what the program can do.
Quite an upwelling event going on north of the Yucatan:



This has been evident for at least a week, probably longer.

Not that I'm saying it holds any relevance to Arlene, mind you, just think it's interesting.
NAM Reflectivity:
FULL
It survived dmin and dmax created Arlene...

Link

I only wish she'd rain on Texas, but it not going to happen.

Never underestimate dmax. It's why the late night crew always looks so dumb in the morning..It's also what creates a lot of cyclones...

Peace.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I hate the South death ridge. Arlene would be the perfect solution to ALL of our drought problems. She's such a huge, slow moving storm.
latest (0z) run from the GFS has a 1004mb TD or weak TS hitting S Texas in 240 hrs



it's a long ways out, but the GFS has proved to do pretty well as far as calling out storms in the long range. As for the individual storm's intensity and heading, that's another story. But looking strictly at TC Genesis in the long range forecast, GFS has done surprisingly well this year and last, imo
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It's based off the RUC, so as accurate as it gets...

That's not even a tenth of what the program can do.
oh ok.

but I can still get RUC model runs for free though lol
Quoting TomTaylor:
oh ok.

but I can still get RUC model runs for free though lol


Not with that kind of resolution though.

Arlene:
00z ecmwf just started arlene with 1004 mb pretty dang close to the current 1003 mb pressure
00z ECMWF, 24 hours. Makes landfall before the 48 hour frame.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Not with that kind of resolution though.

Arlene:


resolution looks pretty good to me

I didn't save the animation run this afternoon, but for those who were paying close attention, this explosion of thunderstorm activity in the southern BOC is the result of a strong mid level spin, that was being drawn into Arlene. It just moved out over the water, and appears to be merging with Arlene.

I believe these are the remnants of a developing system in the Eastern Pacific, that got pulled northward by the tropical wave that has become Arlene.

Fascinating to watch this interaction, because my guess is, it will enhance her development significantly.

I'm expecting her to become a hurricane by noon tomorrow, and I see nothing standing in her way, at present.

She has green lights for miles.
Don't use imageshack. i can't view any images you post from imageshack.Also, Arlene looks good.
RGB Loop for Arlene
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I'm expecting her to become a hurricane by noon tomorrow, and I see nothing standing in her way, at present.
I do, and it's called Mexico lol

I personally don't think Arlene has enough time to reach hurricane status.

we'll see though
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I didn't save the animation run this afternoon, but for those who were paying close attention, this explosion of thunderstorm activity in the southern BOC is the result of a strong mid level spin, that was being drawn into Arlene. It just moved out over the water, and appears to be merging with Arlene.

I believe these are the remnants of a developing system in the Eastern Pacific, that got pulled northward by the tropical wave that has become Arlene.

Fascinating to watch this interaction, because my guess is, it will enhance her development significantly.

I'm expecting her to become a hurricane by noon tomorrow, and I see nothing standing in her way, at present.

She has green lights for miles.


Not 74, but we gonna get close...
the 26 isotherm is lousy..
Brownsville, TX  radar shows a line of thunderstorms on the SE associated with Arlene.
Arlene a great, big, gentle thunderstorm for thirsty NE MEX: a wonderful thing..

Let it rain..

Peace. Out.
Quoting randomize:
Arlene a great, big, gentle thunderstorm for thirsty NE MEX: a wonderful thing..

Let it rain..

Peace. Out.

indeed
Interesting that the EURO has a low in the Gulf during the same time frame as the GFS:

192 hours:

If you'll note carefully, this secondary spin that is moving out over the southeastern BOC from the Eastern Pacific, is more dynamic than the parent spin, which is why there's such an explosion of development on the southeastern side of the old COC.

There appears to be a reshuffling of the COC already underway, with a new center much deeper, but a little further south in the BOC.

It will be interesting to see how much the deeper low is affected by the steering layers, because there is a separation in the high pressure to the north that appears when you strengthen this system more rapidly.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Interesting that the EURO has a low in the Gulf during the same time frame as the GFS:

192 hours:

ECMWF and GFS agreeing on tc genesis in about 8 days...its certainly a stretch, but with MJO and the two most reliable models agreeing, I'd say were gonna have to keep an eye on the area

Could be a good drought reliever too as the GFS takes it into extreme s Texas and the ECMWF brings into into the Texas/Louisiana region

We need a bit more consistency in regards to the possible Bay of Campeche storm, but I think that tropical wave along 45 to 50W might be the one to ignite development. I've been keeping an eye on that particular one ever since it emerged from Africa several days ago.

Upper-level winds will certainly be favorable across that area of our basin.
Quoting KoritheMan:
We need a bit more consistency in regards to the possible Bay of Campeche storm, but I think that tropical wave along 45 to 50W might be the one to ignite development. I've been keeping an eye on that particular one ever since it emerged from Africa several days ago.

Upper-level winds will certainly be favorable across that area of our basin.
Yea, don't get me wrong its a ways out there.

Still have to watch it though. MJO will be here. Upper level winds will be favorable as a large upper level anticyclone will be over the gulf and Caribbean according to the GFS forecast for that time



Like you said, a t wave will likely get things going if they do at all...which would be very similar to our current system, Arlene.
Quoting KoritheMan:
We need a bit more consistency in regards to the possible Bay of Campeche storm, but I think that tropical wave along 45 to 50W might be the one to ignite development. I've been keeping an eye on that particular one ever since it emerged from Africa several days ago.

Upper-level winds will certainly be favorable across that area of our basin.


Evening y'all. I've been watching next weeks possible GOM low since 0z last nights models. GFS and ECMWF weren't as gelled with time last night but both showed the low. 12z EURO showed it going toward/into NE GOM. Tonights CMC shows something going across Florida when the others show Texas. I dunno. May be something to it. Also tried to follow it back to see where it came from. It may be the wave you mentioned.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Evening y'all. I've been watching next weeks possible GOM low since 0z last nights models. GFS and ECMWF weren't as gelled with time last night but both showed the low. 12z EURO showed it going toward/into NE GOM. Tonights CMC shows something going across Florida when the others show Texas. I dunno. May be something to it. Also tried to follow it back to see where it came from. It may be the wave you mentioned.
From what I saw it came from C America, which means the monsoon trough likely has something to do with it. However, I suspect that it is more likely a combination of a tropical wave interacting with the monsoon trough over C America, just like we saw with Arlene.
Hmmm? The CMC Fl. low is from over land. Didn't see the loop earlier. But at least its rain. :)

Quoting TomTaylor:
From what I saw it came from C America, which means its likely a combination of a tropical wave interacting with the monsoon trough over C America, just like Arlene did.


Ah ok. May be why I couldn't tell for sure. Fingers crossed for rain out of it to whoever needs it.
Gonna get some rest be back later in the morning to see what Arlene will look like then.Good Night!
Convection is continuing to improve over Arlene as we approach dmax



Arlene has around 30 hours before she will be making landfall.

Anyway, I'm out for tonight, night all
Lemme say,  If Arlene survives landfall and goes to Pacific, then it's gonna be named Calvin. Also i have a question for TomTaylor: when i'm signed out, why are your comments hidden?
000
WTNT41 KNHC 290839
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF ARLENE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0502 UTC DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH A LACK OF PROMINENT
BANDING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 35 KT...SO THAT WILL REMAIN THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
ARLENE LATER THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.

UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING...AND
GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT SEEMS LIKE IT IS
ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE ARLENE STRENGTHENS. THE BULK OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL...THOUGH THE HWRF HAS THE SYSTEM BRIEFLY AS A
HURRICANE. GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF ARLENE AND THE LACK OF ANY
INNER CORE FEATURES...HURRICANE STRENGTH APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE
NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS NOT PROVIDED A DEFINITIVE CENTER
POSITION...HOWEVER GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE IS
STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT...OR EVEN A
BIT FASTER THAN THAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WESTWARD TURN IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS ARLENE IS STEERED AROUND A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE COULD EVEN MOVE
A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST TOMORROW DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE
RIDGE...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW GLOBAL MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING LANDFALL IN A
LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS.

GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 21.8N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 22.1N 95.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 22.1N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 22.0N 98.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0600Z 21.8N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
1697. Ylee


Pretty much the same forecast as before, only the NHC is giving it a 10% chance of becoming a hurricane, instead of 9% as it did earlier.
Quoting Vincent4989:
Lemme say, If Arlene survives landfall and goes to Pacific, then it's gonna be named Calvin. Also i have a question for TomTaylor: when i'm signed out, why are your comments hidden?
When your signed in can you see them? Or do you have to press a button to see my posts?

And the reason you can't see my posts is because my posts have been - ed a lot I guess.
1699. Ylee
Hey Vince, the reason that TT's comments are hidden is because a lot of people, mostly trolls I presume, have hit the - sign on his comments until his rating is shot. Guests to WU cannot see posters' comments with a below average rating. Of course, my rating is shot as well, so you won't be able to see this post, either! :P
1700. Walshy
Quoting TomTaylor:
When your signed in can you see them? Or do you have to press a button to see my posts?


When I am signed off your posts are hidden probably due to bad rep...I see them while signed in.

Quoting TomTaylor:
When your signed in can you see them? Or do you have to press a button to see my posts?
I can see them.


Ascending ASCAT pass for half of GOM:

Quoting Walshy:


When I am signed off your posts are hidden probably due to bad rep...I see them while signed in.
Quoting Vincent4989:

I can see them.


Ascending ASCAT pass for half of GOM:

ok thanks.

Quoting Ylee:
Hey Vince, the reason that TT's comments are hidden is because a lot of people, mostly trolls I presume, have hit the - sign on his comments until his rating is shot. Guests to WU cannot see posters' comments with a below average rating. Of course, my rating is shot as well, so you won't be able to see this post, either! :P
yep. I don't really know what I did to get such a bad rep...I don't think I'm that terrible of a poster, and I doubt you are either, which is why i dislike the filter on this website. I wish they'd remove it, honestly.

Quoting TomTaylor:
ok thanks.

yep. I don't really know what I did to get such a bad rep...I don't think I'm that terrible of a poster, and I doubt you are either, which is why i dislike the filter on this website. I wish they'd remove it, honestly.
+1
1704. Walshy
Title Update Announced for Halo Reach

Quoting Vincent4989:

I can see them.


Ascending ASCAT pass for half of GOM:

wish we still had the quikscat satellite, it had better resolution and covered a much bigger area.

Ascat on the other hand, is incredibly lame. Just look at that pass, whatd it get like 5% of the storm? Whatta shame.

Quoting TomTaylor:
wish we still had the quikscat satellite, it had better resolution and covered a much bigger area.

Ascat on the other hand, is incredibly lame. Just look at that pass, whatd it get like 5% of the storm? Whatta shame.
I must agree. The time i registered, QuikSCAT was already dead.
I remember using QuikSCAT in a great deal of my forecasts. Oh how I miss thee.
Ok that was weird. My computer did automated updates and then Firefox wouldn't open for half a hour! UGH!!!
I can see everyones posts. I don't know why either of you would have your posts minused. Maybe mine are too. Could explain a lot. Lol.
On the other hand, Arlene's largest area of high convection has moved from NE to SSE.

Edit:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ok that was weird. My computer did automated updates and then Firefox wouldn't open for half a hour! UGH!!!
I can see everyones posts. I don't know why either of you would have your posts minused. Maybe mine are too. Could explain a lot. Lol.

Trolls are mostly responsible for minused good comments.
Quoting Walshy:
Title Update Announced for Halo Reach

lol i haven't played reach in forever. just never found the game much fun idk

although i havent really played video games in general all that much recently
Quoting Vincent4989:
On the other hand, Arlene's largest area of high convection has moved from NE to SSE.

Edit:

Trolls are mostly responsible for minused good comments.
yep, trolls pretty much own this blog lol

I used to show up on the good filter too, up until about a week or two ago when a troll was creating mayhem on the blog and I tried to show Taz and the rest how to ignore a troll and how pitiful the life of a troll really is.

Makes sense that he/she would want to - my posts off of the blog lol
Morning.
I think most everyone who knows of it misses QuikScat .... One of the best tools we had. I feel like we jumped back in time 20 years in forecasting technique
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning.
good night!

2:30 am here. really should go to bed lol

one last thing, Arlene is looking much better convection-wise

Quoting TomTaylor:
yep, trolls pretty much own this blog lol

I used to show up on the good filter too, up until about a week or two ago when a troll was creating mayhem on the blog and I tried to show Taz and the rest how to ignore a troll and how pitiful the life of a troll really is.

Makes sense that he/she would want to - my posts off of the blog lol

What about the REALMASTER onslaught days ago?
Seems everything is making me pull my hair out tonight.

Is the upper level anticyclone and the upper level ridge in these discussions the same thing? Just trying to figure out why they're going in different directions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLE IN
NUDGING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MAY
PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE MOISTURE THAT MAY WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FROM TS ARLENE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP FROM THE STORMS THAT
MOVED INTO NE TX YESTERDAY EVENING. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT INTO THE STATE THE MIDWEST YESTERDAY. THE
MODELS ALL SHOW ENOUGH LAYER MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT SE TX WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS CYCLE WILL BE POPS
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 72 HOURS. MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SE OKLAHOMA HAS
DISSIPATED OVER ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. ALSO...WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF HAS ALSO DIMINISHED. BOTH AREAS
OF CONVECTION WERE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER TEXAS. MODELS FORECAST THE CORE OF ANTICYCLONE TO LIFT
NORTH WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

THIS SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
DO NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE THE POPS AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO
SEE IF LINGERING MOISTURE FROM ARLENE OR TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S.
WILL BE A FACTOR IN LATER PERIODS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
Have had my nose in the discussions. Morning Teddy. Night Tom. :)
evening for me here
Sigh. Now my computer is telling me me my file extensions are bad and won't open. I have no idea what that means. Lol. I quit. It wins. Have a good evening Vincent. :) I'll leave the blog to the morning crew.
Quoting SouthALWX:
I think most everyone who knows of it misses QuikScat .... One of the best tools we had. I feel like we jumped back in time 20 years in forecasting technique

I say 15 years,but it's true-QuikSCAT was the best thing ever in forecasting,should come back in better version.
Arlene-looks very good,but won't be a cane,I say it will reach strength of Arlene'05-70 mph
I don't see an impeding factor preventing Arlene from reaching minimal hurricane intensity. I suspect we'll max out at around 75 mph. Anticyclone looks to be directly overhead now and vorticity has increased through 500mb. Convection is wrapping as well. PWs look good until you get well inland and watervapor shows no obvious dry air at upper levels, with nil outflow boundaries showing boundary layer moisture to be sufficient. If Arlene can stay over water for a whole longer, she has a chance to reach hurricane intensity in my opinion. Dmin may feed me crow, but right now I'm liking the chances.
When HH are taking off today?
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
When HH are taking off today?


1500Z
My bad.. looks like we got an unscheduled trip going on.. they're up, on the way to the storm.. 25000' ~28.167N 90.983W..
Good Morning. Arlene looks better.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning. Arlene looks better.


Yeah, looks much improve the last 2 hrs.

AF308 just made it to the NE edge of ARLENE.
In a warmer patch..
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah, looks much improve the last 2 hrs.

AF308 just made it to the NE edge of ARLENE.

Since when were they flying?
Quoting Skyepony:
My bad.. looks like we got an unscheduled trip going on.. they're up, on the way to the storm.. 25000' ~28.167N 90.983W..

That's good.Arlene has really changed,and they have to go.Be ready for special advisory
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/0545 UTC 21.4N 94.6W T2.0/2.0 ARLENE
28/2345 UTC 21.0N 93.9W T1.5/1.5 ARLENE
28/2245 UTC 21.0N 93.9W T1.5/1.5 95L
28/1745 UTC 20.6N 93.5W T1.0/1.0 95L
28/1215 UTC 20.4N 93.2W T1.0/1.0 95L
Yay! My 1800 post!
Quoting Skyepony:
In a warmer patch..

She's expected to stay in a warm patch for 12 hours...
*gulp*
1732. aquak9
G'morning dayshift.

Gook on Skye to catch the flight- since when have we EVER missed a flight? I thought we had WU-spies in all the flight control towers.
IMO, Arlene is at 45-50mph atm. Lets see what recon indicates.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Since when were they flying?


Looks like they took off at 09:16:00Z. I've only seen 4 of the 8 HDOB. Hope this isn't going to be a problem the whole flight.

We should get a vortex message out of the first pass.
Quoting Skyepony:


Looks like they took off at 09:16:00Z. I've only seen 4 of the 8 HDOB. Hope this isn't going to be a problem the whole flight.

We should get a vortex message out of the first pass.

What do you think they'll find? CybrTeddy says 45-50mph, I'd say 50mph-55mph.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO, Arlene is at 45-50mph atm. Lets see what recon indicates.

I think it's 50mph storm,maybe even 55mph
Kinda interesting as recon is approaching from the north, winds are out of the W & NW at 25000'


Aqua~ good morning..I'm crashing the morning crew today.. Couldn't sleep figured something was up:)
1738. aquak9
Skye- looks like your GI model is working well. (gut instinct)Always good to see ya on here.

Laterrrrz
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What do you think they'll find? CybrTeddy says 45-50mph, I'd say 50mph-55mph.


I think the T# is up a little. (I don't know why CIMSS is not on the ADT with this storm). I'm guessing 2.5 to 3 so.. somewhere between 40-52mph 1000-1005mb. It's organizing quickly now so higher wouldn't surprise me.
1740. raggpr
Quoting Skyepony:


I think the T# is up a little. (I don't know why CIMSS is not on the ADT with this storm). I'm guessing 2.5 to 3 so.. somewhere between 40-52mph 1000-1005mb. It's organizing quickly now so higher wouldn't surprise me.

Hello. Where do you find this information from the recon?
About 30 to 50 minutes till the advisory.
alfabob might get its wish it could redevelop in the e pac
Quoting raggpr:

Hello. Where do you find this information from the recon?

Link
Quoting raggpr:

Hello. Where do you find this information from the recon?


Link There's the decoded. I also use the NHC recon site.



Winds switched to out of the SE at the outer edge..25.733N 93.200W.
Skipped another set. Latest has a little turbulence, flight winds up to 20kts from the ESE. Made it to 24.050N 93.783W.
hey guys just woke up. suprised arlene isnt at 45 or 50 mph as the western side of it looks MUCH MUCH better than yesterday evening. At the 8am advisory the NHC might make it stronger
1747. WxLogic
Good Morning....

Wow!!! Surprised indeed. Once upper conditions became favorable... Arlene got going quick.
look better!!
Gotta go. See you in the afternoon.
Morning All,

Arlene looks like a duck this morning. Yesterday she was missing her feathers.
Good Morning Folks.......Looks like we got an "A" storm for June after all in line with the climatolgy average of 1-2 storms in the June/July slot. Arlene looking quite impressive this morning with lots of convection starting to wrap around......She was able to close the deal in spite of the patch of dry air on her NW flank.
Recon is descending into the storm.
1753. WxLogic
Given current organizational pattern and slow movement won't be surprised of Arlene ends up being a 70MPH TS or minimal HURR prior to landfall. So so far this year... 0, 1, 1
Quoting Skyepony:


Looks like they took off at 09:16:00Z. I've only seen 4 of the 8 HDOB. Hope this isn't going to be a problem the whole flight.

We should get a vortex message out of the first pass.


All of the HDOB are in the NHC Archive
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


All of the HDOB are in the NHC Archive


Yeah that was before I got my first cup of coffee in me. NHC is updating quicker too. Odd TA is missing some of them this morning.
Time: 11:34:30Z
Coordinates: 23.1667N 93.65W
Acft. Static Air Press: 917.6 mb (~ 27.10 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 820 meters (~ 2,690 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.7 mb (~ 29.79 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 113° at 48 knots (From the ESE at ~ 55.2 mph)
Air Temp: 19.5°C (~ 67.1°F)
Dew Pt: 10.8°C (~ 51.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 50 knots (~ 57.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data


look at the winds
South Central Texas has a 10 percent chance of showers early next week with highs near 100 and much higher heat indexes. I guess that is an improvement over no rain chances and highs 105 and higher? Have a great day!
east coast storm
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011 062900&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Anyone else seen CMC? Tropical/Subtropical storm off the coast of SC/NC

Any other models confirm?
Surprised to see them going to ~1000'. Flight winds up to 50 knots (~ 57.5 mph) at 23.183N 93.617W.
Good morning folks

It looks like Arlene has a few surprises in store this morning. Surface pressure at buoy 42055 is at 1004 mbs and still falling. This buoy is now about 80 miles away from the center which leads me to believe that we could see the pressure of the storm down to about 1000 to 1001 mbs. With the deep convection firing as it is this will drive down the pressure and ramp up the winds soon thereafter.

Cat 1 a distinct possibility by landfall IMO.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 291147
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
700 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO EARLY
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 95.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Is the proton event messing up tracking or transmission of sat data?
Arlene is still at 40mph but its getting much better organized
Estimated Surface Wind: From 100° at 35 knots (From the E at ~ 40.2 mph)

Remarks Section...

NE INBOUND PT
000
FXUS66 KMTR 290931
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
230 AM PDT WED JUN 29 2011



ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO COOL OFF AT LEAST COASTAL AND ADJACENT SPOTS NEXT WORK
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE
(CURRENTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO) WILL MOVE AROUND THE
HIGH AND TO THE SW CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE HIGH. WE WILL KEEP
A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE MOISTURE
COULD BRING CONVECTION UP HERE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF
THAT OUT OF THE GRIDS.
&&
Quoting biff4ugo:
Is the proton event messing up tracking or transmission of sat data?


Refreshing the floater fixed that glitch for me.
1769. hydrus
1770. hydrus
1771. hydrus
1772. hydrus
Looks rather tranquil over the U.S.
this system is going to be really bad for alot of folks. large and slow moving she is going to be remembered for a long time hope they evacuate the folks from the low lying areas the mafia has as much influence as the govt hope they take care of their people one last hope is the system gets moving faster
SFMR is on.. surface wind..42 knots (~ 48.3 mph), just north of the COC.
Good Morning all.

More than likely, Arlene is around 50 mph now. The system as a whole has really improved since it was declared yesterday, there is no way it hasn't changed in strength. Giving it still has all day to organize, a 60-70 mph peak is a good bet for Arlene.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Quite an upwelling event going on north of the Yucatan:



This has been evident for at least a week, probably longer.

Not that I'm saying it holds any relevance to Arlene, mind you, just think it's interesting.


Most upwelling events occur when the wind is coming off the land blowing out to sea for long duration and/or at strong speeds.

Hence the upwelling event north of the yuc peninsula from all of the south and SE wind.

I have seen the water off of Nicaragua (pacific side) go from 85 to 70 within 2 days due to strong offshore flow.

My assumption is that the warm top layer is pushed offshore and then back filled from the cooler bottom column of water.

1779. hydrus
Large wave over Africa...
Oh, Arlene's here. Hopefully alleviate some drought problems for Mexico, but then, you don't want too much rain. It looks a pretty wet storm.

Cool and damp here. Aside a couple of days last weekend, it's been underwhelming. Fingers crossed for July and August, though this below average summer seems a trend over the last few years.

In other news, 60% of Jamaicans apparently wished they had stayed a colony. Confusing.
Recon went down to 699', pulled up abit.. Pressure down to 1002.8mb & they aren't to center yet.
So broad.. pressure still dropping, wind went from SE to S, down to 1001.3 mb (~ 29.57 inHg).
1783. hydrus
Quoting Cotillion:
Oh, Arlene's here. Hopefully alleviate some drought problems for Mexico, but then, you don't want too much rain. It looks a pretty wet storm.

Cool and damp here. Aside a couple of days last weekend, it's been underwhelming. Fingers crossed for July and August, though this below average summer seems a trend over the last few years.
Good morning C. Mexico will probably receive terrible flooding from Arlene. .It is moving slowly and will stall or meander over land . Quite a few models continue to push systems into that region. Here is the GFS..Link
Quoting Skyepony:
So broad.. pressure still dropping, wind went from SE to S, down to 1001.3 mb (~ 29.57 inHg).

Looks to be deepening....

Thanks for the updates.
NOAA raised the T# to 2.5
1786. hydrus
looking at arlene right now i believe that this storm could be a hurricane at most 75 mph storm right before landfall. When I saw the organization last nite it seemed to disorganized but now you can tell a difference and it seems to be wrapping its moisture around the COC. and also on 28storms.com they are mentioning in 240 hrs there is supposed to be a storm somewhere in the GOM and it looks interesting. Does anybody have a link to it?
1788. hydrus
A lot of rain..
1789. hydrus
1002.8 mb
(~ 29.61 inHg)

Highest SFMR was ~50 mph
Quoting Abacosurf:


Most upwelling events occur when the wind is coming off the land blowing out to sea for long duration and/or at strong speeds.

Hence the upwelling event north of the yuc peninsula from all of the south and SE wind.

I have seen the water off of Nicaragua (pacific side) go from 85 to 70 within 2 days due to strong offshore flow.

My assumption is that the warm top layer is pushed offshore and then back filled from the cooler bottom column of water.

one of the most extreme examples of upwelling occurs just off west africa strong winds coming off the sahara cause it notice the tongue of cold water sometimes stretches out to the cape verdes
1792. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
1002.8 mb
(~ 29.61 inHg)

Highest SFMR was ~50 mph
That slow movement does not bode well for those folks. Could gain a significant amount of energy before landfall...
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning C. Mexico will probably receive terrible flooding from Arlene.It is moving slowly and will stall or meander over land Quite a few models continue to push systems into that region. Here is the GFS..Link


That's always a worry, particularly when the ground is so dry, it won't be as able to absorb the water as well as it would normally. It could end up just sitting on the ground.
I would think being this systems' thunderstorms are still somewhat strung out from the center that it would be a slow steady strengthening process at best. It's going to take a little while to redistribute all that mass towards it's center before it could ever begin to really ramp up IMO.

I'd say the strongest we will ever see this get is a 50-60 mph tropical storm. It has what 24-36 hrs at most left over water?
Still building...

Blog Update!

Tropical Storm Arlene develops in the Bay of Campeche, a threat to Mexico only

I'm not a good writer in the morning, so please excuse me if my blog entry wasn't the best! :)
Getting closer to the center.
1001.3 mb
(~ 29.57 inHg)
Not the prettiest center fix..~21.317N 95.350W 1000.5mb
122900 2119N 09519W 9598 00365 0006 +234 +215 200005 006 004 000 03
122930 2119N 09521W 9603 00360 0005 +235 +226 272001 003 000 003 03
123000 2120N 09522W 9600 00363 0005 +235 +223 023004 005 000 002 03
123030 2120N 09524W 9599 00364 0005 +235 +222 023007 007 000 000 03
123100 2120N 09525W 9598 00364 0005 +235 +228 019009 011 004 000 03


Lowest pressure 1000.5 mb

Center looks like ~21.33N 95.37W
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Getting closer to the center.
1001.3 mb
(~ 29.57 inHg)


I believe Arlene is around 50 mph, with a central pressure of 1000/1001 mb. There is just no way it has improved so drastically in satellite appearance, but not changed any in strength.

Quoting TomTaylor:When your signed in can you see them? Or do you have to press a button to see my posts?

I'm signed in and I can't see any of your post. The filter button on my screen will not reset to all. It seems to be preprogrammed for average.
TropicalStormArlene has made its*turn to dueWest from its previous heading of WestNorthWest...

...but TSArlene's travel speed has*slowed to 4.3mph(3km/h) from its previous*speed of 11.7mph(18.8k/h),
allowing more time over the BoC's warm spot for it to gather the convection energy to strengthen.

Each line segment between dots spans 3hours of travel.
For more info, copy&paste 21.2n93.7w-21.4n94.1w, 21.4n94.1w-21.6n94.5w, 21.6n94.5w-21.8n95.0w, 21.8n95.0w-21.8n95.2w, tam, cun into the GreatCircleMapper.

* Personally I believe TSArlene has been traveling at nearly the same speed&direction over the past 6hours.
What appears to be a direction-change&slowdown is actually due to the NHC placing its previous center position estimate way too far WNW. And when the HurricaneHunter mission got an accurate center position fix a couple of hours later, that created the plotting-illusion of a major direction-change&slowdown over the past 3hours.
1804. hydrus
Quoting Cotillion:


That's always a worry, particularly when the ground is so dry, it won't be as able to absorb the water as well as it would normally. It could end up just sitting on the ground.
If Arlene were to stall over the Bay of Campeche, she could reach hurricane strength by late tonight or early tomorrow...
1000.5 mb, wasn't exactly spot on the area of lowest pressure either - could be as low as 999.8 next pass.
Quoting Col15thTex:
Quoting TomTaylor:When your signed in can you see them? Or do you have to press a button to see my posts?

I'm signed in and I can't see any of your post. The filter button on my screen will not reset to all. It seems to be preprogrammed for average.


It does that to me too. To get it to Show All, just click Show All, and go up to the url. It should say something like "&filter=none". Just delete that out of the URL, and it should Show All again.
Do any models show development after Arlene say the next 3 to 12 days?
AL 01 2011062912 BEST 0 213N 953W 40 1000 TS
Looking good;

AL, 01, 2011062912, , BEST, 0, 213N, 953W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 40, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE, M,
Disregard my last post -- for whatever reason the filter button finally decided to reset for "Show All"
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 01 2011062912 BEST 0 213N 953W 40 1000 TS


No surprise, down 3 mb up to 45. Could be even stronger by the time they issue the advisory.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 01 2011062912 BEST 0 213N 953W 40 1000 TS


Yes, the CMC and the famous ECMWF.
Quoting hydrus:
If Arlene were to stall over the Bay of Campeche, she could reach hurricane strength by late tonight or early tomorrow...


It looks better than it did, but it depends how it is under the bonnet/hood, so to speak. So far, Arlene hasn't really been a hurry to intensity, though it may now be beginning to do so.

Has any models actually stalled it?

And Greece now votes in its own economic storm.
1798 Skyepony "Not the prettiest center fix..~21.317N 95.350W"

And makes the NHC's last center position estimate of 21.8n95.2w look really ugly.
They need to issue Hurricane Watches for South of Tampico....

Better to be safe, then sorry....

Who agree's with me?
1816. Caner
Arlene seems to be spinning up fast... And vast...

What do the models suggest in the way of a different steering pattern if it spins up into a larger than anticipated storm faster than foreseen?
Quoting Col15thTex:
Quoting TomTaylor:When your signed in can you see them? Or do you have to press a button to see my posts?

I'm signed in and I can't see any of your post. The filter button on my screen will not reset to all. It seems to be preprogrammed for average.


Go to your blog page (top of page username) and select "My Blog"
Right hand side of page select "Edit Blog Profile"
Under Viewing Comments select all
Bottom of page, "Update Blog Profile"

That will set comments to show all. all the time.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 12:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011
Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 12:30:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2119'N 9522'W (21.3167N 95.3667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (276 km) to the ESE (111) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mxico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the NE (41) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101 at 46kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 138 nautical miles (159 statute miles) to the NE (43) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 350m (1,148ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24C (75F) at a pressure alt. of 450m (1,476ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23C (73F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 12 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:42:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
L/V DIAMETER OF CENTER 24NM
1819. Jax82
Getting toasty along the NE GOM coast and plenty warm enough for Arlene.

Damn, I wish ol Arlene was 250 miles north of it's location, would throw that sucker of rain deep in the heart of TX. Missed opportunity
Quoting Skyepony:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 12:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011
Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 12:30:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°19'N 95°22'W (21.3167N 95.3667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (276 km) to the ESE (111°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 46kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 138 nautical miles (159 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 350m (1,148ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 450m (1,476ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 12 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:42:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
L/V DIAMETER OF CENTER 24NM


1000 mbs was my estimate of the pressure. By noon the winds should have responded with an appreciable increase.
Arlene is massive, just like her older brother Alex was, nearly the same spot and same date 1 year ago.
1823. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:
They need to issue Hurricane Watches for South of Tampico....

Better to be safe, then sorry....

Who agree's with me?
Me. And I believe they will...
Quoting sammywammybamy:
They need to issue Hurricane Watches for South of Tampico....

Better to be safe, then sorry....

Who agree's with me?


Not yet....Later on this afternoon, if it has strengthened over 60 mph, I'd agree.
1806. TropicalAnalystwx13
Thanks TropicalAnalystwx13 -- that was good info. I definetly need it for the piece of cr@p work computer I have.
Can anyone answer my question please. after arlene will we see any tropical mischeif in 3-12 days based on model data guys?
75mph cane is looking more likely by landfall.
1829. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:
Damn, I wish ol Arlene was 250 miles north of it's location, would throw that sucker of rain deep in the heart of TX. Missed opportunity
If you have time, check this out...Link
1817. nrtiwlnvragn

Thanks nrtiwlnvragn, will do.
Quoting kmanislander:


1000 mbs was my estimate of the pressure. By noon the winds should have responded with an appreciable increase.


I had pretty much pegged it not long after recon took off 3hrs ago. Looks like it's enjoying the warm patch of water & the natural inclination to spin form the land. I had only given it an outside chance at 'cane statues before landfall. Wouldn't be at all surprised if it pulled it off now.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Damn, I wish ol Arlene was 250 miles north of it's location, would throw that sucker of rain deep in the heart of TX. Missed opportunity


Relax.

Mexico has had its worst drought in 70 years....

I Think Texas and Florida can go a few more weeks with out rain...

You have to remember that mexico is a poor country... and there is alot of corruption....

The average person there makes half of the average american salary.

1833. hydrus
Quoting elninosucks:
Can anyone answer my question please. after arlene will we see any tropical mischeif in 3-12 days based on model data guys?
Check out the #1829 link.
1834. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Relax.

Mexico has had its worst drought in 70 years....

I Think Texas and Florida can go a few more weeks with out rain...

You have to remember that mexico is a poor country... and there is alot of corruption....

The average person there makes half of the average american salary.

Less than half.
Quoting elninosucks:
Can anyone answer my question please. after arlene will we see any tropical mischeif in 3-12 days based on model data guys?


MJO models very much favor it.

I'm still wundering if we will see something from that bit of energy from Arlene that came over FL plus yesterday's SE states storm pull something together off the SE coast over the next few days.
1836. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not yet....Later on this afternoon, if it has strengthened over 60 mph, I'd agree.


If you look at the Structure... it now looks like a more conventional moderate tropical storm... Imo... now that it has 24+ hours over water... I Think it could become a Category 1 with winds of 80mph at Landfall....

Just based off of the fact that it has everything going for it:

SST's: Check
Shear: Check
Dry Air: Check

And it is now developing quickly....


getting interesting!!
41 knots (~ 47.1 mph) surface winds on the way out..
Looks like Arlene is building a CDO. She can easily reach Cat1 if she stalls.
1841. hydrus
I wonder where all the people are that developed the cloud in the eatern pacific yesterday
The National Weather Service in Brownsville has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect from this evening through Friday
morning.

* Timing... strong east to northeast winds offshore the Lower Texas
coast late this afternoon into tonight will begin to push large Gulf
swells up onto the beaches of deep south Texas late tonight into
Thursday.

* Impacts... this large swell will likely produce rough
surf... dangerous rip currents... tidal overflow... and some
flooding along area beaches late tonight into Thursday. Some beach
erosion may also occur as the waves push further onto the area
beaches.
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/USTX0327?mapde st=US_Precip._Forecast:SC

I dont think brownsville north will get 1''-3'' of rain all of the steady convection looks like it is going to be going south of Brownsville... Unless they are anticipating that the storm is going to get bigger.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Damn, I wish ol Arlene was 250 miles north of it's location, would throw that sucker of rain deep in the heart of TX. Missed opportunity
Living here I agree with you but High Pressure is still in control in most of this state and most likely will control it thru August which is normal, hopefully Texas will get some breaks. Only way Texas gets rain during the months of July or August is by something tropical. At least Arlene will bring south Texas a little rain and Mexico quite a bit of rain. Future models show a chance of rain increasing for southeast Texas?
1847. hydrus
I can't believe Texas isn't going to get squat out of Arlene. Very frustrating.
1849. hydrus
Quoting belizeit:
I wonder where all the people are that developed the cloud in the eatern pacific yesterday
Having a crow omlette.
Quoting elninosucks:
Can anyone answer my question please. after arlene will we see any tropical mischeif in 3-12 days based on model data guys?


Stay in tune with Levi32's tropical tidbit, he usually does a good job of looking ahead to further "mischief".
It looks like the quote function is down. Anyone else having issues with the site ?.

Off to work now but will be back later.
1852. hydrus
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Living here I agree with you but High Pressure is still in control in most of this state and most likely will control it thru August which is normal, hopefully Texas will get some breaks. Only way Texas gets rain during the months of July or August is by something tropical. At least Arlene will bring south Texas a little rain and Mexico quite a bit of rain. Future models show a chance of rain increasing for southeast Texas?
1853. hydrus
Quoting hydrus:
What does that map show? Near normal rainfall totals for July and August in Texas is next to nothing. Here we average less than 1 inch of rain in July and August but usually get about quarter of an inch total each month unless a tropical system moves thru center of the state.
1856. MahFL
Those wishing for a stall should stop wishing, its forcast to make land fall in 24 hours.
I say they take water from the rivers that have been above average and dump it on the drought stricken areas who's with me?
I agree, Levi does an outstanding job and there are several others on here that are just great as far as info and knowledge go.
1859. hydrus
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
What does that map show? Near normal rainfall totals for July and August in Texas is next to nothing. Here we average less than 1 inch of rain in July and August but usually get about quarter of an inch total each month unless a tropical system moves thru center of the state.
Lol..I just posted it to show you whats out there. I hope you folks get rain too, believe me..:)
Quoting muddertracker:
I can't believe Texas isn't going to get squat out of Arlene. Very frustrating.


The RGV is still part of Texas, we might get some rain.
nice tropical wave next to 40 west
skip..I'm pulling for you guys, too! I hope yall get something :)
1863. hydrus
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..I just posted it to show you whats out there. I hope you folks get rain too, believe me..:)
I know I did not mean to bite your head off but it does get frustrating when for months we have been going thru so close but yet so far. I hate droughts but I hate floods also but I have seem my share of both of them in Texas, not too much in the middle, just one extreme to another.
Arlene Vortex (6/29 12:30:00Z): MSLP: 1000mb (extrap); Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.): 46kts (~52.9mph); Max Flt. Wind (from Remarks): 46kts (~52.9mph)

Looks like we'll see 50-55mph Arlene @ 10am

LV center quoted @ 24NM


Sorry if posted already.

My bad, that's flight level

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)

Looks like we'll see 40-45mph Arlene @ 10am
1867. hydrus
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I know I did not mean to bite your head off but it does get frustrating when for months we have been going thru so close but yet so far. I hate droughts but I hate floods also but I have seem my share of both of them in Texas, not too much in the middle, just one extreme to another.
I do know how you feel...Trust me..I have been through my share of natural disasters, and it is at the very least frustrating.. To put it simply, it can be downright horrific.
Quoting skkippboo:


The RGV is still part of Texas, we might get some rain.
If one part of Texas will get some drought relief I feel confident it will be South Texas in the next 2 months. I want a system to come thru Texas and then move West thru west Texas and New Mexico to Arizona and give them relief. That would be awesome.
Why does it feel like everyone put me on ignore??
1870. Jax82
Mexico's gonna get a lot of rain.

Quoting shadoclown45:
I say they take water from the rivers that have been above average and dump it on the drought stricken areas who's with me?
I am with you, I would have done this on day one if it were possible.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Arlene Vortex (6/29 12:30:00Z): MSLP: 1000mb (extrap); Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.): 46kts (~52.9mph); Max Flt. Wind (from Remarks): 46kts (~52.9mph)

Looks like we'll see 50-55mph Arlene @ 10am

LV center quoted @ 24NM


Sorry if posted already.

My bad, that's flight level

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)

Looks like we'll see 40-45mph Arlene @ 10am


Matches well with recent advisories. Surface winds via SFMR were 45mph so maybe some slight strenghing. Main impact will be the flooding rains.
1873. P451
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No surprise, down 3 mb up to 45. Could be even stronger by the time they issue the advisory.


Also something that is usually forgotten is that when a westward moving cyclone approaches a north-south oriented coastline it can tighten up very quickly just prior to and during landfall. Seen minimal cat 1's become decent cat 2's in just hours time. That's always an unknown but quite possible to see Arlene organize rapidly and approach hurricane strength as long as atmospheric conditions permit it.

Shear is looking quite good for that region now.
1874. hydrus
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
If one part of Texas will get some drought relief I feel confident it will be South Texas in the next 2 months. I want a system to come thru Texas and then move West thru west Texas and New Mexico to Arizona and give them relief. That would be awesome.
I was hoping this trough would pick up some of the moisture from Arlene and sling it in to Texas...
Mexico getting lots of rain may just make it less hot in Texas? It sure cannot hurt.
Come on over to the NEW BLOG
1877. P451
24hrs IR - Arlene (minus the 3 hour satellite blackout)