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Lane spares Mexico the worst; Helene strengthens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on September 17, 2006

Hurricane Lane made landfall at 12:15pm PDT Saturday as a destructive Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Lane struck a sparsely populated region of the Mexican coast about 50 miles northwest of Mazatlan. The storm surge of approximately six feet affected only an uninhabited barrier island and some adjacent farmland, and did very little damage. The extreme Category 3 winds of the eyewall affected an area of coast about 20 miles wide and stretching 20 miles inland. Only a few hundred people lived in this region, and wind damage from Lane was mostly felt in the city of Culiacan about 30 miles inland. Lane had weakened to a Category 1 hurricane when it passed 30 miles east of that city of 750,000, and brought sustained winds of approximately 65 mph to the city.

Lane has been downgraded to a tropical storm, and is rapidly breaking up over the high mountains of Mainland Mexico. Flooding remains a concern today, and Lane could trigger flash floods in the mountains thanks to its expected 5-10 inches of rain. Lane has been responsible for two deaths so far--a man killed in the village of Pueblos Unidos when he was knocked over by fierce winds, and a 7-year-old boy in a rockfall in Acapulco. Overall, Mexico was very lucky with Lane. Had the storm made a direct hit on Mazatlan, it would have been one of the most destructive Pacific hurricanes of all time for Mexico, and Lane would have become just the 4th Pacific Mexican hurricane to have its name retired.


Figure 1. Hurricane Lane at landfall. Image credit: Servicio Meteorologico Nacional of Mexico.

Helene strengthens
Hurricane Helene is now a large and impressive hurricane, with a huge 50 mile diameter eye. Helene continues to strengthen, but it appears that the storm will be no threat to land, with the possible exception of Bermuda. The computer models are in two camps this morning--the GFS and BAMM models, which take the storm on a westerly track starting Monday, and the rest of the models, which show recurvature to the north. The models differ in how they handle a weak trough of low pressure that is expected to pass to the north of Helene early this week. If the GFS and BAMM are right, the trough will be too weak to pick up Helene, and high pressure will build in, forcing the storm to the west for several more days. The rest of the models think that the trough will be deep enough to turn Helene to the north. These model solutions are more likely to be correct the stronger and larger Helene grows, since a larger storm will extend further north and higher in the atmosphere, making it more likely to feel the effects of the trough of low pressure.

If this trough does miss picking up Helene, the storm has to avoid being pulled north by one or two more troughs in order to make it all the way to the U.S. East Coast. This is a pretty tall order this time of year, as the troughs coming off the East Coast are expected to get stronger and dive further south. The GFS model is predicting a trough late this week will turn Helene northwards, bringing the hurricane very close to Bermuda on Sunday or Monday of next week.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic
Hurricane Gordon is still out there, but is no threat to land. There are no other threat areas to discuss.

Remainder of hurricane season outlook
I posted my outlook for the remainder of hurricane season Friday, in case you missed it.

I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This thing is creeping closer and closer..

So basically, the broad concensus is watch it (naturally), but (for now), it appears to recurve slowly out to sea. Of course, things can change within a minute.

My understanding, is that if Helen does not turn out to sea due to the two more troughs coming at it, it may continue to walk a flight of stairs torwards the U.S. east coast, impacting (though God forbid), somewhere in North/South Carolina. The troughs may weaken it some, and with Gordon being so close for the time being, it's pretty much making the models go quasi-loopy.

How close am I?
That's sweet Jer..
Off to play a few.
1504. hazmat
SurvivingStill8p...you've got it figured out!
yea Canenut its the best software out there.If you want more information click here.
Stormchaser thats the 1800z GFS at 144hr. The new GFS output is not yet available. Lets see if its consistent with that ridge to helene's north.
1507. Canenut
Yeah, but for $1000-$3000 I would have to be rich. They use to offer a hobbyist version for around $100 but I haven't seen it in a few years. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor's software....
Actually, that GFS model is just what would be needed for a major hurricane to make a Georgia landfall.

But I seriously doubt it ;-)
1513. hazmat
Gfs out to 96 hrs now....bye Helene...looks like she might be even a little more to the EAST.
1515. wxgssr
Yep. Its horrible. And EVERY BODY knows it.

He had Santana in the 3rd and couldn't pull the trigger. At least JC could evade some rushers to get the ball off or leg out a first down.
From reading today it seems that anyone on here that foresees a possible more westerly track is labeled a wish-caster. Since I have not seen anyone actually proclaim (yet) that Helene would actually hit the US mainland, I find this somewhat strange. For people to be criticized for using their perception of possible weather scenarios is IMHO uncalled for. But just to end my evening here with another wish caster I'll say goodnight with this

MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS.
THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE
HURRICANE BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF/GFDL BELIEVE THE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE WESTWARD CLUSTER OF GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS


NHC- wish-casters?
NITE
JER
ah are we now talking about a cat 4 land fall some where
stormchaser why not? It has to happen sometime.....
hey taz welcome back hehe

do you see helena stalling before lat 25 . thanks

and stromchaser that track will scare alot of people in fla. if its true . but not immposible .imo ive seen stranger things happen . inthe past and helene might surprise us all
wx

u take the words out my mouth.. i heard he was crying after the game. Brunell that is
stormybil yes it could but we need to wait and see
1522. hazmat
No jer the NHC are forecasters...their call of W movement is what is going on at the moment...but movement that will change & not continue to the W causing devestation to the US. They even include their cordinates at the bottom on where they believe the strom will be at a given point in time.
the last cat 4 to hit GA

Link
The lates five day forecast for the GFS model takes helene Towards bermuda away from the U.S.

Goodnight
tahnks taz looks like tuesday we will find out how much to the west she will go . thats if she dosent slow down any further .
0z GFS has made a huge shift to the northeast with Helene, now moving north out to sea well east of Bermuda.
1527. wxgssr
Crying?? Seriously??
1528. hazmat
150 hrs out now on the GFS....you know the one everybody wants to verify?...wayyyyy off the E CONUS.

Guess that NOAA info helped today.
Hazmat-nobody here please post it if I'm wrong, has stated that Helene will hit US coast just that the track is moving west. So does the NHC, so quit calling people who say the track is moving west wishcasters-that is all I am saying,
JER
1531. hazmat
Who the hell did I call a wishcaster? You called the NHC wishcasters & I commented to your post.

Actually I can name off the names of personal blogs on here that have some people with their panties in a wad thinking Fl or NC or even funnier the GOM will experience her.

The word wishcaster wasn't even in my post.
Dozens, lol. But I am glad I live in a major hurriance free zone! Long summers, lots of swimming and surfing and sailing and NO major hurricanes!
After reviewing the latest model info, I have to say, it sure looks more and more like Miami is in the cross hairs of this Helene
1535. hazmat
You called me out for something I didn't do jer...would appreciate an answer & apology.
why you say that miami is in line WISHCASTER what are you seeing are you seeing the high stronger than thought and helene will pushed west thanks
1539. hazmat
stormybil...read his name...that's why.
1540. hazmat
eye...guess you & the boys rubbed off tonight.
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH
LOW PRES W OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE SLY
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...
THEN MOVE TO ALONG A PSN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO
TUE. FRONT WILL WEAKEN FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE
WED AND MOVE E OF GULF THU. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE E ACROSS THE N
GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH E U.S. RIDGE EXTENDING SW INTO THE NE
GULF BY FRI.


Thought I'd take a look at the GOM Outlook. I'm guessing that this is all about timing. If Helene misses this trof that seems to be casted; then discerning what this cast of the GOM says, my interpretation is that this high is going to form and keep Helene moving west, possibly southwest. That is if the low doesn't pick her up by Thursday. Will the timing permit the two of them to get together and move? I guess that is the question, or seems to be.

Plz, keep in mind, I am just guessing, and in more of a question genre than cast. Any thoughts here appreciated, thanks.
1544. hazmat
276 hrs...gone with another in her place.
1545. eye
Dr Masters said a couple weeks ago the that the models were predicting an increase in activity off Africa, but all of the have Flippers.

Yep and where I live was in the right eyewall--we had a storm surge 18 feet above normal high tide

There were 7 majors that hit GA in the 1800s, and none since.
Helene is not moving very fast that is for sure...It appears to be moving more North but very very slowly....
1548. hazmat
eye...where did I ever say Helene was coming to the US...I've said the total opposite...I've ribbed the OMG it's going west people.

Click on my name...click the box to the rt that says show all posts...you'll see what I called for Helene on Thurs.

You either have me confused with someone else or you want a fight....make you feel good to argue with a woman?
Helene now a major hurricane second of the year.
eye...hazmat speaks the truth. she never ONCE said Helene was heading towards the U.S. She even brushed off my forecast of a direct Miami hit calling me a wishcaster
Posted By: swFLboy at 9:54 PM PDT on September 17, 2006.

wow, the GFS is a quite different!


what dos that mean
1554. hazmat
It means no worries Taz...Helene stays far away from the US E coast...get some rest for school tomorrw.
ok - st simons - i didn't have time to go through all the stuff - what did you say about a georgia landfall?!!!
LOL I was joking about a GA landfall. I think the odds of a USA landfall are quite low. But something like the 18Z GFS would have to happen to get a landfall here.
New models in.
oh thank god - i was going on vacation in about 10 days, 20 hours and 15 minutes but who is counting. We live in Savannah and just saw that and said "oh crap"...
1563. hazmat
LOL...the 0Z is out,,,well away from the coast.
Well that certainly is a bummer hazmat
Don't worry SWFL boy, it happens to the best of us. I don't know about the rest of you, but after reviewing these latest model runs, I'm reluctantly writing this Helene off as a flipper and I have high hopes for Isaac!
eye

thats funny cause i swear at 8:15 pm i gave u my prediction of a fish storm and even told u i agree that she would likley not apst 65w.

did u miss that cuase i could find that for u 2. u seem to miss everything i say

now its my time to name call. U my friend are a troll. find me one post i said she would or i wanted her to hit the us
Posted By: leftyy420 at 12:07 AM GMT on September 18, 2006.

eye

i have said even to u mnay times i feel she will recurve

trendign west was in refeence to the mdoels that as u can see have trended west. even the gfdl trended west. last ngiht it never took her past 57w now it tkaes her to 60w. thats a trend west.

all i am doing is going over the data as it comes in. what do u think i am doing? so if all the data says a more west track thru 5 days, no point have i said east coast landfall, i shgould still ignore it? thats not analysing data. thast ignoring what the data tells u. i am sorry my friend but u need to go back over all my posts and see how many times i stated anythign the mdoesl say needs to be taking with a grain of salt right now.

EYE JUST FOR U MY PREDICTION IS SHE WILL HIT BERMUDA AND HEAD OUT TO SEA

now that i have said that for gthe 5th time to u i will go about anylasingb the data comming in. would u like me to say it again


EYE JUST FOR U MY PREDICTION IS SHE WILL HIT BERMUDA AND HEAD OUT TO SEA


so once again now that u ahve put words in my mouth twice eye where is my apology. casue i swear i amde a prediction and it says nothing bout hitting the us
As the "crow" flies(likely to have for supper)I'm thinking it's about 700 miles to 60W, 25N where the center track is supposed to turn N. At about 8 mph(and slowing) isn't that about 3.5 days out from the casted turn? As I understand it, the high will be in place by Thursday, etc...and wouldn't that keep her moving west? Again, just asking from humble, maybe even ridiculous observation...lol, it's late, too.

Any thoughts? Where am I wrong and explain, please, thanks.
Posted By: eye at 4:40 AM GMT on September 18, 2006.

geez. hazmat, you take stuff tooooooooooooo seriously.....

I am about to go to bed, i have upped my likelyhood of Helene with Flippers back to the original 99%, earlier this evening it went to 95%.

lefty is going to be soooo upset that Helene is a fish afterall.


I'm sorry lefty would be nice. its not hard. infact u can cut and paste it from here and post it and i will take that.

u put words in my mouth and flat out lied basicaly. ur a horrible human being and have serious issues
eye

i aint mike jones so keep my name out your mouth. i made a public prediction something i never do just to explain i think she will recurve. so i say it yet i want her to hit the us? i donlt understand eye maybe u could help me casue i though my precition was very very straight forward
G'nite, everybody,

Geez u guys are sure bickering a lot tonight. Before 5 p. m. it was all peace, love, and thoughtful forecasting in here . . . .

LOL . . . LOL

But seriously . . .. we really did have a low level of plain u-say / I-say. Most people were trying to back up their thinking. And there certainly seems to be a lot to think about tonight.

I would like to say that I don't ever remember the GFS bringing Helene to land, even at 144 hrs. So far the big dispute has been less whether she will hit land and more how close will she get. I haven't had a chance to look at the latest model run yet, but even after reading back about 100 posts I'm still not sure what u guys saw that makes u think Helene might miss the second trough - the braw one that's supposed to come off the coast by Wednesday latest.
nite baha
ok all i need sleep drank to mucha nd skins game has me feeling less than social

eye

honeslty i have lost all respect for u. for now on donlt even reply to my comments i make in this blog. ur a troll and a loser. u crossed the line when u pout words in my mouth to make urself look big in a freaking weather blog. wow, wow, wow. i need to sleep off thsi alcohol casue i swear i thought i said she would recurve. naybe u have been drinking 2. but u lost all respect i had for u. respect is earned not given and u lost it

night all sorry for the lil blow up but i have had a rough night
some scary sheit think Helen is gonna hit us????
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006091800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Sleep it off, Lefty. Have a good one, no worries.
more b(tching tonight i see, what else is new
yeah moon. i need to. lol
has anyone seen the latest Ukm run 00Z
Helen is going to hit NC just wait, ill bet thousand bucks
More Shanshan pics, from cnn

shanshan


I starting to get a little worried about Helene too
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 5:35 AM GMT on September 18, 2006.
has anyone seen the latest Ukm run 00Z


Looks like at the end she turns SW...what's next?
It seems to me as well but the other models dont show that but they havent updated yet. I have thought all along this would be a recurve but it is getting a little interesting now
More Shanshan pics, from cnn

shanshan


I starting to get a little worried about Helene too
Isn't the latest GFDL supposed to be out shortly, too?
yep my thought is it will show a recurve as well as the others that just came out the UKM is the only one showing a sw bend past 60w
i think the ukm is right .
wow wow im starting to know the names and colors of all the models .
thanks everyone for all your info . it helps alot .

nice pic of jean
Stormy why you say the UKM is right. the other models agree just that one has the bend
I'm interested, but too tired to do anything about it. I'm off to bed.

G'nite, all. I'll prolly drop in bet. 5 and 6 a.m. to hear the latest . . ..
Dr. M says to follow the trends. The "trending" has continued to be west. Now, UKM is SW. It'll be interesting to see what the new GFDL will be.
hi clear cause that what i was seeing before i knew about all the models and the ukm is going the way ive been thinking for the last 3 days dont kill me just imo for now . ithink helene will move more west than expected . although every met. here in sf a calling for a bermuda land fall i have to respect them . but they have been wrong before where i was right just my thoughts we will see which models plays the best so for now its ukm for me /.
Me too be back up and on about 730 eastern before i head to the Gym
Nite Baha, Clear. Have a good sleep.
No stormy wasnet killing you just was starting to feel the same way and you always post good stuff on here the latest gfdl for gordon just came in check out what helene is doing on the gordon run following the UKM
Here is Helene still a fish or sorry close to berm. Link
GFDL relies on GFS.
Wind shear linkLink
Shear looks favorable for the wave coming off Africa.
Models still not in agreement, so still a guess for now though casters here say NHC says GFDL is the most reliable.
Yes, but we have to watch the new tropical wave that came off the african coast it could gradually become a threat to land if shear remains low
There also appears to be another tropical wave behin it, so in the long term I'd say we would have another storm or two in the next week or so.
Would be 96L at some point if it can get it together. Low shear for sure. As Helene moves out looks to me there are two large highs filling in behind her and should keep it more south for at least the short duration, maybe. But, I'm just guessing...lol

See what you think in the link.

Link
It has been a pretty quiet year nothing like last year but there still is a month and a half to go in hurricane season.
Its been a quiet year due to El nino but I am excited because we get more rain in the west this year.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/ir2-l.jpg

Nice outflow, eyewall more symetrical, big bugger.
1631. Fshhead
I don't know call me an idiot BUT, I find it hard to believe it would make it to the east coast. Look at this vapor loop. Pretty cool sight also shows both hurricanes

Should be intensifying. WV does look like there is some dust in front of her. But your Dvorak pressure no's would suggest a Cat 4, sustained winds not there yet; but, gusts to 185??? Deeper, hotter waters to the west. A strong storm if you ask me...lol, and likely to get stronger.
1633. Fshhead
Link

oops forgot the link LOL
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Wind Shear
now at 129 kts ouch let hope it a fisher
Current Intensity Analysis-Hurricane Helene
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 932.8mb/129.6kt



morning 5 am update running late we might see some changes from the nhc
(FORCASTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE)

WTNT33 KNHC 180849
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM AST MON SEP 18 2006

...HELENE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT JOGS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 920 MILES...
1480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1160 MILES...1865 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.3 N...49.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
(5:00am NHC Discussion on Hurricane Elene-Uncertainty is all over the place.)

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...AND THIS UPPER LOW MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD CURRENT MOTION. AS THIS
LOW...ALONG WITH HURRICANE GORDON...LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF HELENE. THIS RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO FORCE HELENE ON MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A DECIDED SHORT-TERM WESTWARD BIAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE LONGER RANGE PROGNOSIS IS LESS CLEAR. A DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE BAHAMAS...AND
A SECOND LARGE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW AND
BRINGING THE SECOND TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...
ALLOWING SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY DAY 5.
HOWEVER...THE SPECIFIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN HELENE AND THESE
VARIOUS FEATURES VARY WIDELY AMONG THE MODELS. ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE...THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE HELENE
LIFTED NORTH BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW JUST ENOUGH TO THEN BE
PICKED UP BY THE PLAINS TROUGH. ON THE LEFT ARE THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS...WHICH KEEP HELENE FARTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND END UP WITH
IT CAPTURED OR SLOWED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ON DAY 5. THE
GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN LEANING LEFT...HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE CENTER
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS FORECASTS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE WEAKER AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF HELENE IN THE MODEL. CONVERSELY THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING A RAPID RECURVATURE...HAS SHIFTED
LEFT AND IS NOW PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS. THE BOTTOM LINE OF ALL
THIS IS THAT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THAT
IS...HOW MUCH LATITUDE HELENE CAN GAIN...COULD MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A QUICK RECURVATURE AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW PATH
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS
STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT IS PERHAPS OBVIOUS BY NOW THAT I CONSIDER THE TRACK
FORECAST TO HAVE MORE THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
the only thing i didnt like is when he stated

WHEN HE WAS FORCASTING THE TRACK HE WAS MORE THEN NORMAL OF THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTINLY HE HAS ON WHERE SHE WILL GO AND WHEN !
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 932.8mb/129.6kt

Dang......We have a "Real" Hurricane! That says right at 150mph!

I hope "This" doesn't take aim at Bermuda.


YEAP
Wow Helene looks great this morning. Maybe a shot a category five status. The main player for Helene is the Plains trough. This will be the difference in path and strength Helene will make and have by this time Wednesday or Thursday. Pats 24 Jets 17 Bos 6 NY 3 GM1 Bos 5 NY 4GM2
so does Helene look like it will be come a strong fish storm
From the 5am discussion:

EYEWALL CONVECTION IS A LITTLE COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS
6 HOURS AGO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE 102 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS/ADT ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER
AND HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 105
KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY STRONG...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME FLATTENING ON THE WESTERN SIDE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SMALL UPPER LOW. THIS LOW COMPLICATES THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT IT MAY BE IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT VORTICITY FROM THIS LOW IS BEING
ENTRAINED INTO HELENE...AND THIS KIND OF TROUGH INTERACTION CAN
SOMETIMES PROVIDE A KICK START FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HELENE WILL BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


I guess the shear they were forecasting won't be there. Helene is the big one.

Look at the temperatures! The Fish are in trouble!

Center Temp : +15.8C Cloud Region Temp : -58.8C

according to the CMC model, if the I storm becomes a Cape Verde Storm it may need to be watched, because they build in the high pressure after Helene, and forcast I to be developed
I don't see how Helene will turn west. It sure looks to me like she will follow Gordon.

I have been wrong before. Shhhhh. Don't tell anybody.
the new GFS is coming in:

06UTC Hour 30

GFS
right now it only goes to 42hrs, it looks like it starts of with a NNW motion, and then heads west
66 hours out GFS:

GFS 66
told u i thought that hellen would be a stroy cat 3 week cat 4
the new GFS is forecasting to be a fish storm, i think most of us forecasted to be a 3 or 4, just couldnt say it because the jerks were in here last night
It would not surprise me to see Helene go all the way to a solid cat.5! Probably today.
Morning Rand, seems to be determined to push as hard as she can north. It is slowing down though makes one wonder.
Morning Crab. Yeah, NNW at 7. I expect sometime today that will switch to a more westerly track. But I am glad for every inch North. That just helps move her out.
looks to me like it's going to go right up 50W, I understand what they think "might" happen, but I don't see it taking place. I still think this one is going out to sea, similiar to Gordon.
Agree still not to 25 yet
Hopefully she will just follow Gordon. If not there's always the turn at around 60. Either solution is still a good one.
1664. primez
Do you think this will be a Fabian?

It looks like it's tking a similar track, since the historical tracks show the Isabel was around there... Just wondering...

She's farther south than Fabian was right now.
The cold front is starting through our area today supposed to be passed by this time tommorrow.
Fabian? I don't think so. It's moving so slow right now it is still 5-6 days out from Bermuda. Too soon to know how it might effect them. This would not be good if Helene maintains strength through the forecast period like NHC is saying this morning.
Let's hope she stays away from Bermuda.
Good Morning: Helene becomes our 2nd Major Cane

Morning y'all!

SC, that is one nice looking fish storm!

It is looking more and more like the 2nd trof will grab Helene.

Morning Rand, good to see ya!

Have fun...Back to work for me...
Thanks for those reports Crab. I saw the front over you today.
1671. primez
All I want is a Cat 5 to kick up a lot of surf for my beach campout this upcoming weekend. I don't want it to make landfall. Just come close enough to the US to give us some surf, but not affect anyone any other way at all.

That would be perfect.
Morning 456
just out of curiosity, is the flareup in the southern part of Texas the remnants of Hurricane Lane?
Rand I will update after the 5 this afternoon.
Morning SJ! I don't care which trough grabs. Just want one of them to do their job.
Yes Rand, Bermeuda needs to keep a close eye out. This will be no Flo if it deciedes to stop by....
OK Crab.
Rand you can download "www.weatherbug.com" and look up Jackson County,MS EOC and watch the progress of the front.
MrPerfect....I haven't looked over there this morning yet. I believe the remnants of Lane, yes.
sandcrab39565...I have that program on my PC. I always forget to use it!
Weird?: Could Gordon Affect the Azores as a tropical entity:

is it possible that Helene is so strong it will break thru the trough
Rand that goes to the weather gauges mounted at the EOC
The Weather Channel, said Bermuda should keep a close a eye on Helene......
I know they have a site in Loxley Alabama east of me as well.
sandcrab39565...Is there a search tool on the program. I got to Jackson Mississippi...a tv station.
1687. funeeeg
The blob over Southern Texas is nothing to do with Lane, which has dissipated over the mountains of south central Mexico. As for Helene becoming a Cat 5; I would doubt it since the SST's in that part of the Atlantic are only 27-28 Celsius. That said Ioke was a Cat 5 over 28-29 degree water so i guess the other environmental conditions have to be perfect.
Rand should be listed as Jackson County EMA or EOC
Posted By: MrPerfect at 10:45 AM GMT on September 18, 2006.
just out of curiosity, is the flareup in the southern part of Texas the remnants of Hurricane Lane?


Texas and Oklahoma have flash flooding from Lane, but more than half of Lane is in Canada already. Iowa took a beating 24 hours ago, with winds up in the high 70s.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/rb-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-l.jpg
1690. snowboy
Wow Helene is putting on quite a show for us - now let's hope she hightails it northwards. And yes Mr. Perfect, the remnants of Lane are indeed soaking Texas.. Big concern is that this looks quite likely to develop into a wave, which then moves northward along the trough and slows its eastward motion.
The frontal trough that moved through the Central Unites States, dumped some heavy rains, and numerous tornadoes:

Rand I will verfy in about 30 min. Headed to the office now.
I'm just an observer (and my how this room has provided with interesting observation!!), but I'm curious as to the opinions of those here this morning (most certainly the less bickering and more on topic members of this blog group!) regarding the similarities of Helene to Floyd years back. He was a big boy, with reports day in and day out of turning and he did turn, but at the 11th hour with us on coast of Florida puckering tighter and tighter with each passing minute. Thoughts?
Alright Crab....Later.
1695. snowboy
funeeeg, what makes you say the slug of moisture isn't from the remnants of Lane? I'm quite sure it is, have been tracking it since Lane made landfall..
Brevardian...I don't think a Floyd is happening. But that one scared all of us. I evacuated before he made the turn.
1697. snowboy
ScienceCop, no sign of moisture from Lane up here in Canada yet. If the moisture over Texas develops into a wave and moves up the trough we could see some by tomorrow though..
I was in a quandry with Floyd. I have a menagerie of pets and with work and the size of him...I actually felt safer in my own home then the thought of sitting in a parking lot...errr...I mean on 95 (lol) driving somewhere in hopes of outrunning this intense and enormous storm. Helene is looking might pretty out there and I pray for all in her wake, all in her path. Thanks for the input.
thanks sciencecop, I found the info after doing some searching. thanks for the links anyway.
Floyd..shmoid...I've been remembering Dora.
does anyone give the "WRF" model any credence? Cause it takes Helene west as well.
1703. snowboy
stormchaser77, you're entitled to believe that there's a 3% chance of US landfall. I continue to believe the chances for landfall are much higher, and will merrily continue to discuss my concern and the rationale for it until I am convinced that it is baseless. In the meantime, I agree that this storm could be a nightmare for Bermuda..
3% was being generous in my opinion. it's not going to hit the U.S. mainland. it may track west a bit, but it's not going that far west before it gets turned back north and back out to sea.
So what is your reasoning snow?

I think it is becoming more evident that the ridging will not occur in a fashion that will allow a US landfall. More and more models are showing the ridging high extending well in to the SE blocking any W movement of Helene...

Less then 10% chance IMHO...
1706. fla1963
456

Is that the remains of "Lane" comeing off the coast of south Texas, if so what are the odds of regeneration in the GOM? UMMMMM
Rand look in the middle top of the weatherbug screen. "Change Location" its under "Jackson County EMA"
1708. IADCW
Hey guys - theres a 3%+ chance of this storm getting to the US so NO MORE talk of this being a fish storm until its turned away for good.
Why IAD? Give some reasoning please.
SJ- if the ridging extends into the SE, Helene would continue around the periphary of the high, meaning that she would be pushed to the south around it. Some models have shown a WSW dip in the track in a few days, and it could be responding to the ridging.
sandcrab39565...I can't find it. What's the zip code?
1712. funeeeg
Snowboy; funeeeg, what makes you say the slug of moisture isn't from the remnants of Lane? I'm quite sure it is, have been tracking it since Lane made landfall..

After lanfall in Mex it would have had to do 90 degree right turn to get anywhere near the tex gulf coat. Last time I looked the remnants were dissipating over Mexico with a track towards the New Mexio/Texas border. The flare up in the gulf has more to do with a cold front.
SS, it looks as if Helene will get inside of a upside down U shaped ridge. If this happens it will not be able to move W. It should just kind of stall until the second trof comes and sweeps it away. Real problem is this stall could happen near Bermuda....
1714. ricderr
good morning boys and girls...happy monday.....remember..our good friend stormflop...said this would be dead tomorrow...so...everyone is safe...however...i'd be a wreck right now if i lived in bermuda...
Morning ric...
39567
1717. Patrap
..Morning to the Monday crowd..958...thats a potent storm Paw paw!
Hello Ric.
Thanks Crab. I got it.
1720. nash28
Morning all.
1721. Patrap
..sees the trend in guidance still keeping Helene..east of Bermuda..and Im glad to see that...as are the Bermudans...
Morning Nash and Pat.
1723. Patrap
..yo Randrewl..Hows it shaking this am?
Posted By: IADCW at 11:38 AM GMT on September 18, 2006.

Hey guys - theres a 3%+ chance of this storm getting to the US so NO MORE talk of this being a fish storm until its turned away for good.


People can talk about whatever they want. Much more likely to turn out to sea instead of hitting the east coast of the US...why not shout down those talking about something that has little chance of happening as opposed to those talking about what is most likely to happen? Or, how about just letting people say whatever the heck they want?
Morning Patrap,Nash and all that just got on
1726. Patrap
..Morning sand..
Real well here Pat. You getting any rain today?
1728. Patrap
...Helene not forcasted to impact anything...as far as the Forecast period takes it..from my view...thogh bermuda should pay close attention..as Im sure they r...
1729. Patrap
..had one isolated t-storm bout hour ago,..with the frontal boundarey setting up line to my west..with passge xpected later this Monday...
1730. Patrap
..is looking at the 7 day..out in time ..forecast..for next Monday PM...
Yep Pat....you and Crab might get wet today.
1732. Patrap
..light smoke detected aboard ISS ..with the 3 man crew ..donning protective gear..more to follow..Im going to NASA select..on Directv..for some real-time info....
Thanks for the info pat, that does not sound good...
Randrewl

Do you think anything will develop from the blob (I think formerly Lane) coming off Texas? Also, What do you thing of the new wave off of Africa??? Think it will be invested today?
1735. Patrap
..just heard Jeff Williams on the loop....sounds like problem was isolated to the Electron o2 generating system...but will stay tuned to hear the latest
1736. IKE
Extended forecast for NW Florida..."Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Much cooler. Lows 50 to 55 inland...56 to 61 at the coast.".....

Bye-bye summer....a killer for tropical development around here. Great news........
1737. IADCW
SWFLdrob -

I agree with the all opinions and make up your own mind. I used that 'NO MORE TALK' line as some in hear think they know so much that the only opinion that matters is theirs. As we all know - OPINIONS ARE LIKE NOSES - EVERYBODY HAS ONE.
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean and Surrounding Land Masses.............Western Periphery..
18/09/06
08:06:19 AM AST


A cold front now extends from a developing low pressure system near 49N/90W, over the Great Lakes region to the Atlantic Ocean near 51N/52W. The front is accompanied by moderate-strong showers spreading across Southern Canada from Ontario to Newfoundland, the Great Lake States, and parts of the NE USA. Locally heavy rains with a chance of a thunderstorms or two are expected over the area.

A cold front extends from the same low pressure system near 49N/90W across much of Continental USA to the Texas/Mexican border where a 1008mbar low (the remnants of Lane) is located. As with yesterday, the frontal trough will be accompanied by severe weather (heavy rains, gusty winds, tornadoes and T-Storms), notable over southern Texas and northern Mexico, where the remnants of Lane is helping to produce heavy T-Showers with rainfall accumulations of 2-5inches in the past 24hrs.
If the low, along the front is able to enter the Gulf of Mexico intact, then there are some chances of tropical development, if conditions allow.

An upper level trough, accompanied by a waning front now extends from 30N/72W to 45N/68W, with a mid-upper level low (95L) along its axis near 35N. This low was once a true TUTT, but the circulation made it to the mid-layers. The system remains frontal, meaning its non tropical, but could become subtropical soon, then tropical later. Quicksat pass, buoys, visible imagery and 850mbar streamline winds, revealed a closed circulation with winds of 20-25knots. The same buoy measured a pressure of 1004mbars, so the lowest measured pressure stands at that. The low has limited convection due to hostile upper air winds and cool SSTs.

An upper level ridge that extends from the Texas/Mexican coastal border, across the Gulf of Mexico, north into the heart of the USA, is giving way to the frontal trough to its west and will move further to the east and south as the trough comes down. The ridge is also helping to create warm air temperatures across much the South-East USA and the North-East USA.

A surface trough extends from 30N/65W to the NW Caribbean Sea will produce scattered isolated T-Showers across Bermuda, the Central Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica, the Caymans Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula, including Belize.

A tropical wave has moved inland over Central America.

Strong Showers and T-Storms will spread across Panama and Costa Rico in association with the ITCZ, expect locally heavy rain accumulation of up to 5inches (7inches in higher elevations).

Much of the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea, remains cloud-free, and limited in convective activity due to dry, sinking, stable air, being channeled in by a mid-level high north of the Leeward Islands.

Weather456
1739. Patrap
...the situ is stable aboard ISS..the smoke is clearing..and the crew only has to stay Isolated from the one affected module a co2 scrubbers clear the air....no imminent danger..and no more action required...thats a relief..
Posted By: fla1963 at 7:36 AM AST on September 18, 2006.
456

Is that the remains of "Lane" comeing off the coast of south Texas, if so what are the odds of regeneration in the GOM? UMMMMM


Yeah
1741. Patrap
..phew ..thats a mouthful 456...lots to digest there...
1742. IKE
Barometric pressure @ Brownsville, Texas...29.79...remnants of Lane are close by there.
Here's my take on Helene. I think her slow forward speed will result in her being acted upon by several alternating troughs and ridges. This will result in a stairstep-like track for the next few days. The slower she goes, the more likely that one of these troughs will eventually pick her up and send her to sea. But this may not happen until this weekend. Based on this senario, I would expect her to pass just to the west of Bermuda with no impact on the US other than large swells. These may end up being more significant than those from Florence as we'll have a stronger storm lingering offshore for a sustained period. So I'm predicting the chance for any direct US impact at <5%, and 60% chance for Bermuda to experience at least tropical storm force winds at some point. Comments?
1744. fla1963
THANKS 456
You guys do know that if Gordon the "Fish of the year" hits the Azorez it wont be a "Fish"
Deal with it.
1746. Patrap
..sounds like good logic there yorktown...
Helene.....almost similar to Florence in size:

1748. ricderr
This will result in a stairstep-like track for the next few days.
will this make her winded? da da da boom
1749. Patrap
..Man..thats one impressive early vis...
obsessedwweather...The convection moving off Texas into the Gulf is caused by a pre-frontal boundary. Conditions in the Gulf don't look conducive right now. But this time of year anything might be possible in this situation.
East Atlantic wave is not a closed low and is an open wave.

Good one Ric!
1753. nash28
This will be one long week as Helene toys with us and meanders.
1754. Patrap
..boy..the west bound wavers were out in force Yesterday...with impact predicts from central Fla. to jersey....
Just be clear...Helene is a true cape verde hurricane....Florence too?
Yeh Pat...It was getting so bad I was expecting to hear "...cat 5 in the Gulf" anytime.
1757. Patrap
..stayed up to watch the Houston American buisnesswoman ..Ansari..blast off to the ISS from Russia aboard the Soyuz..she paid 21 million for the 10day trip..and will return with Expedition crew now on board..Launch occured at 11:09pm cdt last night..
1758. Patrap
..temp at Launch time was 50 nice cool degrees in the area.
1759. Patrap
..No GOM storms allowed thru Sept 25th..MNF returns to the Dome..in 7 days....yeah baby!
I Have a Feeling alot Of People on The Blog Would Like The Excitement Of a More Westerly Track

that's probably true for some of the people on here. I said the same thing a few days agao and people were all up in arms. Fact is there are some people who enjoy watching the destruction of people's lives. Barring some unforeseen weather change, this storm will not hit the U.S.
1761. Patrap
..calls those lot..Doomsdayers...LOL
Where are the remains of Lane headed ?? GOM towards West Coast of FL ?
1763. Patrap
..remnants of Lane absorbed by Frontal boundary....
1764. ricderr
2.1 million a day for a vacation.....wonder if they'll ever have a sale....get it down to under 300 a day..and i can go
1765. Patrap
..remants isthat tag of blowup at the end of the boundary..near Brownsville..Texas coast...
thanks pat
1768. Patrap
..lota Money for a great view..Ill check my balance in about 1000 years..but thats way outta my wallets reach..
MrPerfect- Where do you get off saying people enjoy watching the destruction of people's lives? Who the hell do you think you are anyways? How dare you label people who you don't even know.

have I ever mentioned you by name nash28, or anyone else for that matter? no. and there are people on here, just like the rest of the world, who enjoy watching people's lives being torn apart by storms. you can deny it all you want, but these sick people do exist.

so lighten up, francis.
It is going to be a long week. Nash is already riled up on Monday at 8:30edt. I picked a bad week to stop the Valium!
1772. snowboy
Excerpt from the Forecaster Discussion from Buffalo NY, referring to the Texas blob as the remnants of Lane:

"Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
224 am EDT Monday Sep 18 2006

Synopsis... Short term /today through Wednesday night/...

... Models in good agreement with timing of front now...and again they have slowed it down a few hours...with passage from about 05z buf to 11z Art. NAM/WRF suspiciously meager with quantitative precipitation forecast and probability of precipitation...with much
of it anafrontal. We do have some good jet dynamics...40 knots ll jet
this evening...but instability very limited due to warm middle layers
and cape parameters are virtually none. Am a bit wary
though...especially with tropical moisture from "Lane" getting
entrained into south end of front in Texas. Some this will be drawn
northward along it...although whether it can get this far is
debatable. In any case...fell it prudent to still mention chance tstorm
with the front and increase probability of precipitation to categorical...at least for a few
hours as the front passes."
1773. ricderr
nash..he predicated his statement with saying he had a feeling.....his viewpoint..which i think..is allowed.....here....take one of my prozacs...they're small...makes you grin like a fool....but well worth it
have fun stormchser77...i'm out till later
Rand,
Glad to see they let you back. I am more of a lurker but i do enjoy your posts. I was sorry to see all the crap on friday. I havent been on since then.
nash28...Whoops. I missed that. Send me a message.
I think Gordon, should be the hurricane of the year.......Keeps going and going and going...

Stormin27...Thanks. Everything is fine now.
Gosh you guys dont read the NHC forecast. There cone does not even come close to the east coast. No toying around with Helena. Here is a name we will see again in a few yrs. Wait for development in the SW Carib.
leftovers, I think you're right about the SW Car. There's been a little festering going on down there.
1785. nash28
Rand- Check your mail.
swFLboy...A little bit of humor that wasn't so funny to some.
1787. Melagoo
Good Morning ... I see Helene has strengthened

helene
1788. ricderr
Gosh you guys dont read the NHC forecast.
oh great....now we're supposed to be able to read?...that's why i come here...every 2 minutes someone will post a picture....i do wonder though..how many people in bermuda right now...are trumping helene as a fish storm
Hello hurricane people!
1791. wadcane
Dear Helene:

You were born about two weeks ago far off in the eastern Atlantic. Over time you struggled against the environment. Your body matured and developed a nice rounded signature. Your curvature became well rounded and symmetrical. As your pressure dropped you become more intense. Your howling winds became more ferocious and you kicked up some mighty waves. You developed a well-defined eye and set a target to strike Bermuda or the USA.

Head-in (trough) I am strong and you cannot penetrate me.
Head-in (trough) I am strong and you cannot navigate around me
Head-in (trough) I am strong and my shear will rip you apart
Head-in (trough) I am strong and I will push you out to sea
Head-in (trough) I am strong and I will destroy you

Good-By Helene
You are history
Is that a little dry air intrusion in Helene this morning?
Sorry Bermuda rarely gets a major hit. Thats history.
1795. snowboy
Folks, we'd all do a lot better if we concentrated on providing our thoughts on the tropical systems in play and how they might develop, rather than attributing questionable motives to others. The newbie no-minds that attack and/or pin the "wishcasting" label on others whenever they disagree with their views are an unfortunate recent development on this blog, one that has led many of the veterans here to lurk and/or just come on in the overnight hours when sanity reigns because the infantile ones are sleeping..
1796. Melagoo
Look how big Helene is .... She has very wide hips!
1798. Gatorx
Good Morning Weather Gods...

Two things...looks like the models are now pulling Helene back to the north.

With respect to Gordon...maybe 456 you can answer this....how much further north does it need to be before it feels the effects of colder water.
1800. IADCW
I've made a small fortune over the years taking the contrary view of the 'educated expert'. They think so highly of their opinions and just wont look at an alternate view. You can look an educated expert in the eye and tell them you are going to take their money because their wrong and they wont relent as you proceed to do so. Just amazing!!

I see the same thing here.
1801. ricderr
After a few warmer days in the 80s, fall weather has really set in this weekend. While it was quite cool yesterday, the downslope northwest winds continued overnight, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 40s in the metro area. Similar conditions are forecast tonight. The higher mountains may have a dusting of snow, but that's about all on the moisture. While the NWS is forecasting a low in the mid 30s tonight, if the wind continues it should keep temperatures from falling below 40. If the wind calms down Monday night, we might have to watch out for frost in a few spots on the plains. September is averaging about three degrees below normal so far. Normal high/low for September 17 is 77/47
posted on denvermark's blog....while we worry about the tropics..others are seeing snow already....i'll worry about a hurricane or two a year and still think it's a good tradeoff from snowy weather
1802. GulfGuy
Good morning All.
Posted By: Weather456 at 12:08 PM GMT on September 18, 2006.

Posted By: fla1963 at 7:36 AM AST on September 18, 2006.
456

Is that the remains of "Lane" comeing off the coast of south Texas, if so what are the odds of regeneration in the GOM? UMMMMM


456, If a storm were to cross over from the E. Pacific to the GOM, what would it be named? Would Lane be Lane or Isaac?

Thanks
1803. nash28
Rand- You have a couple of emails.
I think the new wave has huge potential.
1806. Melagoo
I've made a small fortune over the years taking the contrary view of the 'educated expert'. They think so highly of their opinions and just wont look at an alternate view. You can look an educated expert in the eye and tell them you are going to take their money because their wrong and they wont relent as you proceed to do so. Just amazing!!

Bingo! right on the money ... very well said
Gulf...Isaac. Especially in this case as all that is left is moisture.
I have been watching these storms since I was seven. That is 44 yrs ago. You all might disagree but this yr has been very active from day 1 of the season. There always has been something to watch. We have had so many almost invest and invest we have not had a break. I remember back in the late eighties a few yrs there was not even a tropical wave to watch. This yr will not go down officially as a active yr but unofficially there always has been something to keep a eye on. Remember if you bad mouth someone on the forum they can electricute you through your keyboard.
1810. snowboy
ricderr, I'm the opposite - I happily accept the snows of winter as the price I have to pay for not having to worry about hurricanes during "the season"..
1811. VBgirl
It would be Isaac.
1812. Gatorx
GulfGuy-

That is such a great question....when Ivan hit the Gulf Coast it actually travelled all the way to Pa, then NY and back out into the Atlantic in which the remnants of Ivan then reformed and actually circled wide and headed south passing over east central Florida. There was alot of controversy on what to call this...because of insurance...they pay per storms...with new deductibles for each storm...therefore - if you get hit by the same storm twice..you ony pay one deductible.
However if the remnants of one storm is then called a new one, it could have a negative economic effect on the consumer.
1813. ricderr
ergo the name snowboy...godspeed to you.....and a pair of longjohns
1814. Melagoo
Can't see the forest for the trees .... when you concentrate on something in one area all the time you get real good at everything going on in that area but there are 100 other things going on around it that you aren't seeing. That is why modern medicine doesn't work .... that mentality is killing us.
1815. Gatorx
Nash-
With respect to Gordon...how much further north does it need to be before it feels the effects of colder water?
1816. snowboy
Is it me or has Helene started her leftward turn?
Snowboy....it looks like a bump to the west from the sat.
1819. IADCW
I guess the educated experts had to go to work - I dont see them posting anymore.
1820. Gatorx
That is why modern medicine doesn't work .... that mentality is killing us.

I live in South Florida with really, really elderly people....if you compare the mortality rates with the 1940's I think maybe there could be a case that modern medicine does work.

Just my opinion. However it was not weather related so I apologize in advance.
1821. GulfGuy
Thanks Gatorx. It seems "logical" to me to keep the name associated with an identifiable cloud mass until that cloud mass is no longer identifible.
However I've found out that what seems logical isn't always the way things are done!!!
1822. IADCW
Spoke to soon.

Posted By: stormchaser77 at 1:12 PM GMT on September 18, 2006.

IADCW.... This is Weather Not Gambling

Who said anything about gambling.
1823. Zaphod
Morning all......

So have we been wondering about the track on Helene for a week yet?

From what I see on the historical models, Helene has simply gained too much lattitude to miss the inevitable troughs.

When she heads back west for a while, we can (and, I'm sure, will) speculate on landfall again, but I just can't see how Helene can fail to curve away.

Does anybody have October storms from near Helene's position handy? Has any storm from near here EVER made it to land, or even close? We could I suppose root for her to break 60W, and at least have the small victory of making it further W than any previous storm.

Zap
Posted By: stormchaser77 .... This is Weather Not Gambling.

But for those of you who would LIKE to gamble on it....

Link
1825. ricderr
I live in South Florida with really, really elderly people....
so are you saying..you're really really elderly too gator?
1826. Melagoo
live in South Florida with really, really elderly people....if you compare the mortality rates with the 1940's I think maybe there could be a case that modern medicine does work.

It's about quality of life .... anyway this is a weather site sorry too!

Helene is big powerful and will most likely not be a threat when you see the huge frontal system dividing east and west right now will play a major role
1827. Gatorx
ric-


Ouch...that hurts!! I'm one of the young uns...forty something....
1828. Patrap
patrap is 322 in dog years
1829. Patrap
..yall can do the Math..LOL
1830. Gatorx
FLKEYSRADIO-

I think someone got banned this weekend from posting inappropriate links on this blog.
1831. nash28
Hey Gator. Gordon is falling apart and has been feeling the effects of the cooler water for a while now.
1832. Melagoo
It's like a big Hurricane removing broom!

36 hr forecast
1833. ricderr
Ouch...that hurts!! I'm one of the young uns...forty something........gator...keep telling yourself that....i'm 48..and can still remember...when i thought....people in their 40's were old....i also remember..
1834. Patrap
..thats the strongest front since last spring..big butted double barrel high..
Bring on the noreasters, I'm ready for my winter!! : ) Randrewl, great to have ya back!
1836. Zaphod
Saw a news article on www.space.com that NOAA is dropping a much-improved sensor suite from the next-gen GOES satellites in favor of more of the old stuff.

It amazes me how hard we work as a nation to NOT make progress in important areas.
Zap


GatorX, how was what FlKeys posted an inappropriate link? Have you even looked at the site?
Bring on the noreasters, I'm ready for my winter!! : ) Randrewl, great to have ya back!
1840. Gatorx
I knew it was weakening - I'm just surprised it's still a hurricane...the dissipation has been so slow - I thought maybe it had not hit cooler waters yet. Thanks for your info
1841. Melagoo
Bring on the noreasters, I'm ready for my winter!!

Those are the storm I dread .... the folks of the east coast get clobbered every year by at least 3 monsters
1842. Patrap
..some figure Zap..if a good system is viable & healthy..why go with a new design?..KH-11..the lacrosse spy-sat series..is good xample of that
1843. IADCW
Posted By: Gatorx at 1:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2006.

FLKEYSRADIO-

I think someone got banned this weekend from posting inappropriate links on this blog

That link was not only weather related but hurricane related - how can it be inapropiate ??
Morning Ray......really. Bring on winter. Sunny and 90 is my forecast today. Still.

1845. Gatorx
SJ-

I did not say he did...reread the post.
My apologies for the double post, didnt think it went through the first time.
1847. ricderr
Bring on the noreasters,
ray.....come january...i'll be watching the morning weather...we'll be expecting a high in the 70's..and they'll show you snowed in....i'll be smiling...LOL....you northerners are a hardy lot
1848. Gatorx
Off to work...have a great day everyone.
Dont particularly care for the coastal flooding, just luv the s+!!
1850. Zaphod
The only difference I see between statistics, probability, forecasting, and gambling is who is trying to justify what to whom.

Zap
1851. Melagoo
Helene does appear to be head north when you see the loop
Ricederr, wouldnt live anywhere else! I am elated by the fact that I am in the ONLY region on Earth that can be struck by a major hurricane to have it followed by a blizzard 1-2 months later!! : ): )
My bad, Gator, I must have missed where FlKeys was asking about someone getting banned or something. Otherwise I do not know that there was any other way to take your comment about links and getting banned.

Just for the record that Hurricane Futures Market that FlKeys posted the link to is run by the University of Miami and all house money goes to research...
1854. jake436
Posted By: obsessedwweather at 12:04 PM GMT on September 18, 2006.

Randrewl

Do you think anything will develop from the blob (I think formerly Lane) coming off Texas? Also, What do you thing of the new wave off of Africa??? Think it will be invested today?


Obsessed, I know Randrewl answered this, but I wanted to throw my .02 in. The moisture associated with this front was indeed enhanced by Lane, but the LLC from Lane never made it out of the Mexican mountains. I agree with Randrewl that although conditions are not perfect in the GOM, it always bears watching this time of year when these fronts come through and stall out in the GOM.
1855. Melagoo
I remember about 10 years ago a system stalled over Lake Ontario and continuously dumped snow on us for 5 days and we got 40 inches ....
1856. Patrap
..this front aint going to stall...its a whopper...
Really Ray?

I would say that the 8 to 12 inches that we got in coastal SC after Hugo would almost classify as a blizzard....Granted rare, but it did happen. We had a white x-mas that year after being nailed on Sept 21-22 by Hugo.
1858. Patrap
..plus ,low pressure along the front is setting up north of the GOM..near the Florida panhandle tommorrow..am
Melagoo, I'm guessing u live downind of one of the great lakes and that it was lake affect, as opposed to synoptic, real snow. U cheat, its FAKE snow!! LOL : )
Well in my entire life in South Florida I can honestly say I have Never experienced snow after any hurricane....ever! So there.
1861. Melagoo
it sure was cold fake snow LOL! and heavy
Wow SJ, thanx SJ, didnt know that! Well, I'm the only place where it is common relativley speaking.
whats the situation with helene?
1864. Zaphod
Patrap,
I agree with "go with what you know" in many cases, but given that we KNOW that we need better resolution and research has identified an improved solution, and we have years like last year to provide incentive, I would like to think the ROI analysis would look pretty good. How many congressmen would settle for 80's vintage office equipment, vehicles, and phones -- they all worked well once too!

Zap
Yes very true Ray. That was a very odd year for us down here to say the least...lol
1866. GulfGuy
Posted By: VBgirl at 12:59 PM GMT on September 18, 2006.

It would be Isaac.


Thank you VBgirl. Would it be Isaac because it regenerated in another area? I know that if a Pacific Cyclone moves too far west it is called a typhoon.

Maybe I'm singing "let's all be one big happy family ", Kombya, (I can't spell it) or whatever, but I think the whole system we're using today is outdated and is from a time when people had a mentality that what happens in this little corner of the world affects only this little corner of the world.

I know that's my opinion and that and $5 will get you a good cup of coffee at starbucks.
1867. jake436
Posted By: Patrap at 1:35 PM GMT on September 18, 2006.

..this front aint going to stall...its a whopper...


I didn't say it was going to stall before it gets to the Gulf, but I guarantee it will stall IN the Gulf. It's September, man. This front ain't going through Miami.
in snowed in orlando in 89. not a measurable amount though.
Melagoo, where u at...Buffalo?? Most I have received at my house that I remember is 30" of heavy, wet cement (tree damage resembled a ts, from weight) from '97 April Fools blizzy, although place nearby me have had 3' recently (last few yrs)
1870. Patrap
.true.Zap..but you cant talk sense into a politician..Thatll drive ya nutz.For example..weve flown the Shuttle system for 25 yrs,,and are just now going back to a Apollo based design.And fortunately for us here in New Orleans..Lockheed martin got the Job..and keeps 5000emplyees going here at Lockheed martin...for the forseeable futur
1871. Patrap
..gives the 1018mb High a 50/50 chance at Miami ..passing,..but we leaning into the October peak..alil earl..this year..and with high ssts still..the chance for a GOM ..or Bahaman spin up..is good
IADCW.... This is Weather Not Gambling

Actually, weather is exactly like gambling - most like horse race handicapping to be exact. In picking the winning horse you use "scientific" data like past performance and breeding, and very often the favorite does win the race - but just as often it does not because there are multiple variables that cannot be accounted for scientifically that create uncertainty in the result. Weather forecasting is much the same - while there is much scientific data to assist in picking the most likely outcome, there is an equal amount of variables that are not accounted for by the models or other forecasting techniques, and the interplay of these unaccounted for variables will always make the outcome somewhat uncertain.

You can never count on any horse to win the race, no matter how strong on paper, or any hurricane to follow the forecast, no matter how seemingly clear the forecast.
It's raining!!!! sorry..good morning everyone!!
1874. Patrap
..the calender may say September 18th ..but the climatological pattern ..is much more Early Octoberlike..across the CONUS..and the Atlantic basin..
1875. Melagoo
I live here .... generally fairly safe

Melagoo home
Posted By: Freshwaterconch at 9:45 AM EDT on September 18, 2006.

IADCW.... This is Weather Not Gambling

Actually, weather is exactly like gambling - most like horse race handicapping to be exact. In picking the winning horse you use "scientific" data like past performance and breeding, and very often the favorite does win the race - but just as often it does not because there are multiple variables that cannot be accounted for scientifically that create uncertainty in the result.


Does this mean that on my next trip to Vegas, I can wishcast for a Jackpot on the slots?
good morning all, rand & nash, with gfs and gfdl skooching together a little,can we get a measure of comfort now, or is today going to tell the tale, jo
1879. Melagoo
Helene is following Gord .... she is turning definately north now
1880. Patrap
..thats crazy talk..LOL!
1881. Patrap
..look what Happened to Jimmy the Greek..when he went to talking Breeding..LOL
Anyone here ever research the "super storm" of Feb 1899? Blizzard conditions along the gulf coast from NOLA thru Tallahasse right down to the beaches. Lots of all time record lows throughout the eastern US including -2 at Tallahasse. Unreal. I'd love to see something like that in my lifetime.
Ally - You're gittin rain? I am SOOO Jealous - it's already hot here and STILL no rain. I DID see clouds this morning but just dry air all around. We were told last night that some of the rain might evaporate before hitting the ground we are so dry - how's that for a met. hedging on his forecast - "folks you will see clouds on the radar, but you MIGHT NOT get rain - it is SOOOOO dry, it might evaporate before it hits the ground at your house - so when I SAY it is raining, don't get all mad and tell me I was just hoping!"
1884. Melagoo
Buffalo get 20+ inches every time it snows LOL they deal with it well though .... lots of plow guys make a living going there to move their snow .... shivering just thinking of it now LOL!
1885. Patrap
,,The big Cat-5 buck..mates with a Hybrid fall gom storm..and gives ya a big.buttedWinter Noreaster...then...
heh
1888. ricderr
Does this mean that on my next trip to Vegas, I can wishcast for a Jackpot on the slots?
FL....just as long as that slot is not facing west
After the Denver blizzard of '02 [between 4-5 feet depending where you were,] I'm more content to be down in the Keys hunkering down in the event of a storm.
is 110kt 130mph or 135mph in mph??
hi taz, re" what are the winds like for a 110kt hurricane in mph i think it like 130mph or 135mph"

take kts times 1.15 for mph, 127 which i think they always round up or down jo
1892. jake436
Posted By: Patrap at 1:47 PM GMT on September 18, 2006.

..the calender may say September 18th ..but the climatological pattern ..is much more Early Octoberlike..across the CONUS..and the Atlantic basin


I don't disagree, but October fronts don't go through Miami either. I grew up where you live Patrap, and even November fronts that come through NO stall out and back up two or three days later. I know this because after all the water gets blown out of the marsh by the NW winds, I would just wait three days and hit the marsh for the reds with the rising water caused by the SE winds. I worked in Miami last fall and "winter", I use that term loosely, and the first front to make it there was right about the time our Tigers took care of the Cane's. This year is different, but it isn't crazy different.
saddlegait - suppose to rain here all day..will send some your way because all of this ain't evaporating for sure! lol
1894. Patrap
..Helene Looks to be bearing aroung 357..and is riding right up 50 west..
Posted By: ricderr at 9:53 AM EDT on September 18, 2006.....just as long as that slot is not facing west

What if the slots reels read left to right, and the RIGHT-most reel is facing WEST... does that constitute a WESTWARD movement?
1897. Patrap
..differnet no..and the reds my favorite..but defintely early...
After the Denver blizzard of '02 [between 4-5 feet depending where you were,] I'm more content to be down in the Keys hunkering down in the event of a storm.

That was in March right?
I flew into Denver about 10 days after and went skiing in Breckenridge. They had something like 11 feet of snow on the ground when I got there but high temps were in the lower to mid 50'. Weird walking around 15 to 20 feet drifts while wearing shorts and shirt-sleeves..
1899. Patrap
..TD Miriam lost most of her convection overnight...
huh? there is no 96L there a 95L but no 96L
Denver blizzard - yes, March - but in 2003. St Patty's Day blizzard - biggest since '97. It took down part of our roof...
Oh yea...They were still repairing the canopy roof thingy at the DEN Airport.
Mel - I was at Environment Canada last November... right near you...
: HobeSoundShudders ah thanks
1906. ricderr
yes...and if you play that slot..you will be ridiculed.....and will be asking for disaster to befall you
1907. Patrap
..the coldest winter I ever experienced ..was a Spring NAto Xercise..in Tromso,Norway..in 84..that permafrost aint made to Mall stakes into the ground..never seen so many broken sledgehammers in me life..!
1908. jake436
Posted By: saddlegait at 1:51 PM GMT on September 18, 2006.

Ally - You're gittin rain? I am SOOO Jealous - it's already hot here and STILL no rain. I DID see clouds this morning but just dry air all around. We were told last night that some of the rain might evaporate before hitting the ground we are so dry - how's that for a met. hedging on his forecast - "folks you will see clouds on the radar, but you MIGHT NOT get rain - it is SOOOOO dry, it might evaporate before it hits the ground at your house - so when I SAY it is raining, don't get all mad and tell me I was just hoping!"


Saddle, you're getting rain today. I just know it.
yay it now a cat 4
Pensacola

I remember living in Omaha, NE in the spring. When the temps would get in the 50s and 60s, and there was still 3 or 4 feet of snow on the ground, it would usually create a very thick fog. You could see it rising off the ground as the day heated up - it was really strange.

I lived in Huntsville, AL. in 1989. Twin tornadoes - HUGE twin tornadoes came through the south end of town demolishing an entire neighborhood, shopping center, police station, etc., just at dawn - no one was anticipating it and it came during rush hour traffic. I had just gotten through the intersection and could see the funnels travelling along the river path right before they hit. No one expected it. The next day, all clean up efforts were performed in the snow - it was grueling to say the least to have to dig and pull bodies out of cars, buildings, etc, while working in the snow...
1911. Melagoo
Mel - I was at Environment Canada last November... right near you...

NJ were you in Toronto? did you work there?
Well I think its safe to say that Helene will miss land. Its moving north sooner than expected
Posted By: ricderr at 10:00 AM EDT on September 18, 2006.
yes...and if you play that slot..you will be ridiculed.....and will be asking for disaster to befall you


If you've seen my bank account when I leave the slots, you'd know disaster ALLWAYS falls on me afterwards.

Posted By: raindancer at 9:59 AM EDT on September 18, 2006.

Denver blizzard - yes, March - but in 2003


Sorry, was off by a year... had a feeling I was guessing wrong when I typed that... all I know is that I was trapped at work for almost 3 days down in the Tech Center. Got to know my fellow employees WAY too well.
Doug, I'm not so sure you would want to see that, a blizzard down south that is. In 1989 I lived in Kingwood, a burb of Houston and on Christmas eve we set a record of 9 degrees. We had pipes bursting all over the house. 12 to be exact and water everywhere.....building supplies businesses were charging outrageous prices for PVC pipes. it was horrible. Very pretty with the snow, but not a pleasant cleanup.

Morning everyone!
Thanks jake - I want it really bad! Our grass is non-existent. It is just dusty, the horses (5 of them) are drinking about 60 gallons of water a day, as much due to eating dusty dried up everything as to the heat. I know they would love a little moisture in the rubbish they are trying to eat. They get grain, but the live for grass - currently, they are taking to knawing on the trees - I think because they just want something to chomp on and there is no grass left for them. The deer are not helping matters by constantly raiding the water troughs at night!
1916. Patrap
..Cold front now beginning to crank up..squall line .to my west..with strong Tstorms imbedded ..going to be rough afternoon..before we get frontal passage..
1917. Patrap
..Where Saddlegait?
Pat - be careful and watch for funnels, you don't want to be caught off guard. Please . send it gently towards southeast AL.
1919. Melagoo
See what all of us are getting in one pic

North east america
Bring 'em on Patrap......Shell country here, and gas down this morning to 2.11.....maybe my electric bill will be under 600 dollars next month. YeeeeeHawwww!
Despite the 3 day inconvenience of the blizzard, I'm still gonna opt for Denver over Florida... We are STILL trying to get our condo fixed in Pt Charlotte after Charley - 2 years later. And then I'm hoping we sell it before the next storm comes along and just blows it away...
Brundidge - halfway between Montgomery and Dothan - I think the clouds just have a really hard time finding us - tell them if they aim for Troy and just blow slightly south, they can't miss me - I'm the house with the car that has dents from hail damage, dust covering the dents from no rain and deer eating the leaves off all my plum trees - I'll leave out a sign if it wants.


I would mow a big X in the field, but there isn't anything left to mow.
1924. Melagoo
Brownsille must be getting soaked right now
1925. Patrap
..Quik answer..will have the NOAA radio on..and the Local Networks have broadcast this morning of possible strong to severe Weather..later..
I feel like Charlie Brown - Montgomery comes on the air and says "we got 2.8 inches"...Dothan comes on and says "we got three inches". I just sit there with my measly .2 inches and feel like saying "I got a rock!"
Saddle. Freaky stuff....Scary too.

I went to Gadsden once a couple days after big F4 or F5 went thru. Must have been i'm guessing here...1996 or so. Anyway, we got to a part of the hwy where one of those big twisters had crossed, and trees were flatened for about a half mile wide stretch of hwy as far as we could see where it had crossed the road.
1929. Patrap
..Im sure this front will settle the dust and maybe give them Horses some relief...yall sound like ya need it ..
Doug, I'm not so sure you would want to see that, a blizzard down south that is. In 1989 I lived in Kingwood, a burb of Houston and on Christmas eve we set a record of 9 degrees. We had pipes bursting all over the house. 12 to be exact and water everywhere.....building supplies businesses were charging outrageous prices for PVC pipes. it was horrible. Very pretty with the snow, but not a pleasant cleanup


Yeah I know....I'm just kinda stupid that way.
1931. Patrap
..I wouldnt bet on those Dvork press numbers..they have been showing lower than actuals..since Helene became Hurricane
You're not stupid Doug.....It was very pretty, and my first white Christmas.....big beautiful snowflakes falling.
I feel like Charlie Brown - Montgomery comes on the air and says "we got 2.8 inches"...Dothan comes on and says "we got three inches". I just sit there with my measly .2 inches and feel like saying "I got a rock!"

LOL!
It's raining here!
1935. Melagoo
helene
We had the big freezes her in Dec 88 and then again on Jan 90. Hit 9 one morning here in P'cola.
Plumbers all got rich!
1938. Melagoo
HELENE.110kts-954mb-229N-499W
Mel - was in town for a week to do an audit of the EC laboratory.