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Landslide in Guatemala Kills 86, Leaves 500+ Missing

By: Jeff Masters 1:25 PM GMT on October 04, 2015

One of the deadliest weather disasters of 2015 occurred in a suburb of Guatemala City, Guatemala on Thursday night, October 1, when a massive landslide of waterlogged earth and debris tore through the village of El Cambray II, in the municipality of Santa Catarina Pinula, destroying or damaging 125 homes. At least 86 were killed, and over 500 people were feared missing as of Sunday morning. According to Norman Avila of climaya.com, who maintains a personal weather station a few miles from the disaster site, the rains over the past three weeks in the region were not exceptional--6.72" during the period September 12 - October 1, and only 0.02" the day of the disaster. This is not an unusual amount of rain for a 3-week period during the May - October rainy season. In fact, conditions during this year's rainy season have been on the dry side, due to the influence of the strong El Niño event underway in the Eastern Pacific. The disaster seems to be primarily attributable to the location of the town, which is at the bottom of a canyon. According to a news report from Yahoo News, municipal authorities had urged the community, about 15 kilometers (10 miles) east of the capital Guatemala City, to relocate several times, most recently in November of 2014. According to EM-DAT, only three weather-related disasters have killed more than 400 people in Guatemala: floods in October 1949 that killed 40,000, Hurricane Stan of 2005 (1513 killed), and flooding from Pacific Hurricane Paul of 1982 (620 killed.) According to Aon Benfield, only two weather-related disasters have killed more than 200 people this year: a May heat wave in India (2,500 deaths), and a June heat wave in Pakistan (1,265 deaths.)


Figure 1. The deadly landslide of October 1, 2015, in a suburb of Guatemala City, Guatemala. Image credit: Soy 502 on Twitter.

Bob Henson will have a post by mid-afternoon on the tropics and on the extreme flood situation in South Carolina, which has experienced 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts of over two feet of rain over the past two days.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

That looks like a horrible landslide.
Horrible
joaquin is somewhat responsible for the terrible landslides.
Thanks for taking notice of this disaster, doc. And prayers for the folks affected. One of the worst nightmares: half a mountain coming down on you ...
So sad, this was predictable and was predicted by authorities. But if this is your home and your safety and you are poor and unable to make that move then your in a tough spot. Praying for all the lost souls in the Bahamas and Guatemala.
From last blog, live Bermuda cams and thanks again to Barb. (Remember to disable any "ad block" if you have them].

Quoting 562. barbamz:

Guys, watch the Bermuda Cam!! Ferocius winds now. All the best to the inhabitants!

http://portbermudawebcam.com/

BTW, the gap in the row of palmtrees had been the work of Gonzalo last year, if memory serves me right.


Quoting 570. barbamz:

Another live streaming Bermuda cam (earthcam).
Good Morning everyone, the season that keeps giving, Invest 91L is a healthy looking wave in the MDR for October:





Quoting 6. tropicofcancer:

From last blog, live Bermuda cams and thanks again to Barb. (Remember to disable any "ad block" if you have them].






Things don't look too bad in Bermuda yet.
There has been widespread prolonged drought throughout central America this year. Since the rains were not exceptional, one wonders if the drought might have had a destabilising effect on the soil.
no end to the disasters. even the french rivieria is not immune
Quoting 4. barbamz:

Thanks for taking notice of this disaster, doc. And prayers for the folks affected. One of the worst nightmares: half a mountain coming down on you ...
Yeah and the worst thing is there is nothing you can do about it, you can't prepare for it. Lots of natural disasters have happened recently in the western hemisphere. Mudslides in Guatemala, Hurricane Joaquin devastating some of the islands of the Bahamas, an atmospheric river of moisture in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Erika that caused massive flooding to Dominica, not to mention the California drought. Prayers to everyone that have been impacted by natural disasters this year.
Quoting 8. DurhamWeatherLover:



Things don't look too bad in Bermuda yet.


In hurricanes, conditions all of a sudden go down hill really quick, usually in the CDO, they are not quite in the CDO yet :

Devon Heights in Bermuda is reporting sustained 28 mph wind.
Quoting 10. islander101010:

no end to the disasters. even the french rivieria is not immune

True. For those who have missed it in the blog earlier (and meanwhile the deathtoll sadly has risen ):
France floods: 16 dead on Riviera after storms
BBC (with video), 2 hours ago
A cat 4 or strong 3 hit Taiwan last week,never heard any thing about it. Is it so common that the people dont complain any more or is the U.S. a bunch of cry babys.?
Quoting 9. yonzabam:

There has been widespread prolonged drought throughout central America this year. Since the rains were not exceptional, one wonders if the drought might have had a destabilising effect on the soil.


I would agree. The drought weakens the vegetation which holds the soil together. Without that the soil becomes much more susceptible to landslides etc. Hopefully many of the missing are found!
18. SLU
21-12-7 for 2016?







Quoting 16. victoria780:
A cat 4 or strong 3 hit Taiwan last week,never heard any thing about it. Is it so common that the people dont complain any more or is the U.S. a bunch of cry babys.?

So where have you been last week? Several blogs with myriad of comments were dedicated to Dujuan:

Category 4 Dujuan Takes Aim on Taiwan

Dujuan Slams into Taiwan; TD 11 Forms in Northwest Atlantic
Quoting 12. MahFL:



In hurricanes, conditions all of a sudden go down hill really quick, usually in the CDO, they are not quite in the CDO yet :




I noticed water is starting to splash over the sea wall a bit in the front now. That's a new development.
Quoting 19. barbamz:


So where have you been last week? Several blogs with myriad of comments were dedicated to Dujuan:

Category 4 Dujuan Takes Aim on Taiwan

Dujuan Slams into Taiwan; TD 11 Forms in Northwest Atlantic

Some pretty cold cloudtops in the center of JQ :

Looks like axis of heaviest rain swinging northward toward Florence and away from low country SC. This afternoon should be a drencher for NE SC and SE NC.

Nasty weather has swung north of Charleston as evidenced by what looks like a wind switch to a more offshore component down around Folly Beach. The surfers are on it. See link to cam below.

Not as big as I would suspect. Wave faces on sets maybe 6'. NC beaches probably twice as large.

Link
Quoting 16. victoria780:

A cat 4 or strong 3 hit Taiwan last week,never heard any thing about it. Is it so common that the people dont complain any more or is the U.S. a bunch of cry babys.?


Taiwan has been hit by 20 Cat4's, they are well used to tropical cyclones.
Quoting 18. SLU:

21-12-7 for 2016?










220mm/ 9inches since Jan 1st, I guess 2016 will catch up this unprecedended deficit... and it could be bad lol
Quoting 26. Grothar:




So you are telling me that there is still a CHANCE ?? :))
Quoting 26. Grothar:


It's in a low windshear spot right now.



Good low level convergence as well.

Quoting 24. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like axis of heaviest rain swinging northward toward Florence and away from low country SC. This afternoon should be a drencher for NE SC and SE NC.

Nasty weather has swung north of Charleston as evidenced by what looks like a wind switch to a more offshore component down around Folly Beach. The surfers are on it. See link to cam below.

Not as big as I would suspect. Wave faces on sets maybe 6'. NC beaches probably twice as large.

Link


Surf looks pretty choppy and sloppy to the north.

Pretty nice lines coming in at Cocoa Beach
Link
Quoting 25. MahFL:



Taiwan has been hit by 20 Cat4's, they are well used to tropical cyclones.
Never mind you are missing the point.Every thing here is hyped up and promoted beyond recognition.
32. SLU
Quoting 27. CaribBoy:



220mm/ 9inches since Jan 1st, I guess 2016 will catch up tu unprecepended deficit... and it could be bad lol


2016 gonna be crazy. Looks like rain fromJan to Dec with a 04/05/08/10-type hurricane season from June.
Quoting 24. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like axis of heaviest rain swinging northward toward Florence and away from low country SC. This afternoon should be a drencher for NE SC and SE NC.

Nasty weather has swung north of Charleston as evidenced by what looks like a wind switch to a more offshore component down around Folly Beach. The surfers are on it. See link to cam below.

Not as big as I would suspect. Wave faces on sets maybe 6'. NC beaches probably twice as large.

Link


Nice cam, like how that guy was walking around and then found a spot to sit and watch.
Quoting 32. SLU:



2016 gonna be crazy. Looks like rain fromJan to Dec with a 04/05/08/10-type hurricane season from June.


I can't wait anymore. I feel (personnaly) devastated by this very dry year (lol)
Dang, that view looks like that community was set up for devastation from several possible disaster scenarios - but this one would have been most lethal, coming with no warning - other than authorities requesting people to move.
Steady 32mph now in Bermuda.
Quoting 28. CaribBoy:



So you are telling me that there is still a CHANCE ?? :))


Yes, small right now. With all the disasterous flooding in the Southeast and major Hurricane in the Atlantic, it was only posted a few times. We have enough time to watch it. Right now we should be concentrating on the current crises. I am really astounded with the rainfall amounts we have been seeing.

Quoting 36. MahFL:

Steady 32mph now in Bermuda.


Where are you finding this information?
Quoting 31. victoria780:

Never mind you are missing the point.Every thing here is hyped up and promoted beyond recognition.
Do you live in the areas impacted right now? So how do you know? I will trust the bloggers sending in pictures whether they took it themselves, a friend, or someone they know on twitter or facebook. One of the pictures ncstorm posted showed the water levels as high as near the stop sign, that's almost as high as my head. This is not hype, it's still raining over there now and it's been raining like that for the past 48 hours. Hype is like saying a Cat. 5 is coming to south FL when all the models and forecasters say otherwise, but if the event is unfolding then that's what it is. The people whose houses have been damaged or destroyed because of water getting into it or just strictly from winds from the storm will tell you otherwise.
On a side note...I just got an avatar but it's sideways. How do I fix that?
Quoting 7. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Morning everyone, the season that keeps giving, Invest 91L is a healthy looking wave in the MDR for October:






OTS most likely??
Quoting 38. DurhamWeatherLover:



Where are you finding this information?


From Personal Weather Stations in Bermuda.

Devon Heights
Quoting 42. MahFL:



From Personal Weather Stations in Bermuda.

Devon Heights


Thank you!
Quoting 16. victoria780:

A cat 4 or strong 3 hit Taiwan last week,never heard any thing about it. Is it so common that the people dont complain any more or is the U.S. a bunch of cry babys.?


We did an entire article on the Typhoon. You must have missed it, so here it is again.

Quoting 41. FOREX:

OTS most likely??
Hmm...too early to say. Joaquin is quickly moving out of the picture he will still leave a weakness behind, but that gap might close fairly quickly with the high building in from the east, with that said in mind the fall like trough pattern has begun along the east coast which could scoop it up at some point. Like always we should wait until we have a system declared, so the models can have a better initialization point.
Quoting 28. CaribBoy:



So you are telling me that there is still a CHANCE ?? :))

You missed yesterday, St. Thomas got some good rains. 4"+ at my spot - 4"+ at the airport and some other areas were 7"+ - Really good day - well deserved rains. Funny/weird thing tho - only St. Thomas got those totals, even St. John, only 3 miles to the east, barely saw an inch.
Maybe you guys are next - keep the faith!!
TS Oho has moved westward south of Hawaii, defying the forecast track. If it now assumes the pattern that was predicted, but starting from its current location, the Big Island may be about to experience its first landfalling hurricane on record.

Meanwhile, a revived Marty finally makes its landfall on the Mexican coast just south of the tip of Baja, pumping plenty of moisture into a subtropical jet northward all the way into Canada, with the descending limb dumping intensely dry air across the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane 1m1 minute ago
Hurricane Joaquin: 11 AM ET, 110 mph winds, Cat 2, 957 mb, moving at 17 mph. http://wxch.nl/r1tYL6
Quoting 48. Luisport:

Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane 1m1 minute ago
Hurricane Joaquin: 11 AM ET, 110 mph winds, Cat 2, 957 mb, moving at 17 mph. http://wxch.nl/r1tYL6


Good news for Bermuda!
Www.weather.bm
Quoting 49. DurhamWeatherLover:



Good news for Bermuda!


110MPH is still very strong though
Quoting 51. CaribBoy:



110MPH is still very strong though


Yes it is, but much better than what we saw yesterday.
Quoting 31. victoria780:

Never mind you are missing the point.Every thing here is hyped up and promoted beyond recognition.


What is happening in South Carolina I assure you is not hype, it's historic. What happened in Guatemala is not hype, it's tragic. What Joaquin did to the Bahamas was not hype, it was a crushing category four making a direct hit on many of the islands. You are missing the point, little more empathy and little less judging does the body good.
The wave in the central Atlantic is what the GFS sniffed out 16 days ago as a tropical storm nearing Puerto Rico.It has dropped the storm in its more recent runs.The Euro was also picking up on it for a time.
Quoting 46. viman:

Quoting 28. CaribBoy:



So you are telling me that there is still a CHANCE ?? :))

You missed yesterday, St. Thomas got some good rains. 4" at my spot - 4" at the airport and some other areas were 7" - Really good day - well deserved rains. Funny/weird thing tho - only St. Thomas got those totals, even St. John, only 3 miles to the east, barely saw an inch.
Maybe you guys are next - keep the faith!!


4 inches is nice, and 7 is awesome. We didn't get much once again... just a short shower, but the thunderstorm activity was fairly strong all around with lots of lightnings.

Now hopefully the system out in the MDR will finally bring us something decent...
Quoting 16. victoria780:

A cat 4 or strong 3 hit Taiwan last week,never heard any thing about it. Is it so common that the people dont complain any more or is the U.S. a bunch of cry babys.?

Just Wow. That's the best you've got for Americans? We've been up since before dawn, checking on friends and neighbors and lending a hand for anyone who needs it. Are prepared to pickup our elderly friends and all their critters if the seasonal stream in their back yard begins to flood their home. More helping, less judging. It would do your soul some good. It would seem you need a few more stars in your crown.
Quoting 31. victoria780:

Never mind you are missing the point.Every thing here is hyped up and promoted beyond recognition.
Different places have different tolerances, a Cat 4 Hurricane hitting even the wrong side of a windward island is destructive.
also its half way around the world, people worry about their backyards first.
Quoting 31. victoria780:

Never mind you are missing the point.Every thing here is hyped up and promoted beyond recognition.
The next time a Tsunami kills 250.000 people in Indonesia, let's see who comes to the rescue. I bet it will be the country you the hate, America.
Quoting 50. BDADUDE:

Www.weather.bm
Stay safe my friend, it doesn't seem to be as strong as it once was, but still a formidable storm nonetheless.
Looking at the wind overlays for the various levels in the region of the low pressure attached to the end of the front along the SC coast, one can clearly see a stacked flow. This might indicate a danger of possible tropical development apart from Joaquin as the dry side starts to moisten up from lingering over flooded ground as well as the nearby warm SSTs.
Dam collapse at Semmes Lake, Columbia, SC
It's active tropics wise. No one should be bored, that includes you CaribBoy.



This is what it looks like upstairs. Deep trough penetrating all the way down into the Bahamas and Cuba. High pressure in the Atlantic, in between is Joaquin, and 91L coming into view above the NOAA emblem.


Approaching and soon passing little Bermuda.
According to recon storm is restrengthening a bit with its eyewall improving (eyewall could not be detected earlier; commenter Envoirment had been right in the last comment section: EWRC).
From latest center fix (958mb):
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
Quoting 61. JustPlantIt:

Dam collapse at Semmes Lake, Columbia, SC
Quoting 64. FOREX:

Not hearing any confirmation from media of this.


It's onTwitter.
Quoting 65. DurhamWeatherLover:



It's ok Twitter.
Thanks.
As someone who lives in one of the areas hit by flooding,I can assure you it isn't hype.They were pulling people out of their homes a mile down the road from me.Water in Georgetown is the depth of the deep end of a swimming pool.Tell the folks being away by boat that it's hype.
God help the people in the Bahamas and Guatemala.Even when you have it bad,someone else has it worse.
ECMWF has Oho merging with a Gulf of Alaska front off the Pacific Northwest next Saturday. If it verifies, it might be an interesting early Fall storm for them.
Starting to slide up the coast today as forecast.

On a positive note for Bermuda, Joaquin is not only weakening, but also moving along at a fair clip, so whatever power it brings will be limited, as compared to what has occurred in the Bahamas and South Carolina.
Quoting 9. yonzabam:

There has been widespread prolonged drought throughout central America this year. Since the rains were not exceptional, one wonders if the drought might have had a destabilising effect on the soil.


Yeah I haven't been outside the U.S. a whole lot, but I've been to Guatemala a few times so I know the area pretty well. The country is essentially all rain forest with the driest areas averaging 70-80 inches a year to the rainier areas averaging well over 100 inches a year. I've done physical labor dealing with the soil there, and it is a very thick clay-like consistency. Similar to what is found here in the FL panhandle, Georgia and Alabama. I was there during a rainy period in the summer. However, the farmers there told us that during a drought, the soil gets almost rock hard, and thus when heavy tropical rains return, it can be a disaster after a drought.

The country is also very mountainous, and I remember each time I've been there that I could see evidence of recent mud slide and mountain erosion from heavy down pours. Add all those things together and heavy rains can be dangerous there as much as they re needed and part of the climate. Poverty or not, it's dangerous. Plus, Guatemala isn't as poor as it was during Mitch. It still has a lot of poverty, but there are some thriving areas that are doing much better including the Guatemala City area which is very modernized and many people live like Americans and know english.
Quoting 31. victoria780:

Never mind you are missing the point.Every thing here is hyped up and promoted beyond recognition.

Seems like someone's agenda is being shredded by reality.
Quoting 25. MahFL:



Taiwan has been hit by 20 Cat4's, they are well used to tropical cyclones.


Makes me wonder what we are doing wrong here in the States when it comes to TCs
Our Sumter, SC plant manager called to tell me he shut down ops at 5AM. Cut all power and utilities to the building. Last time such an event occurred was Hugo in 1989. Kingstree to Sumter to Columbia has taken it the worst in the last 18 hours. Fire hose appears to be slowly moving northward. Now pouring here in Florence. North Myrtle Beach, Calabash, Cherry Grove may again be under the gun this afternoon and evening. On positive note, looks like Charleston and low country have finally gotten some reprieve.

We still have the rivers cresting even after the rains move out. Not going anywhere anytime soon. Probably see more roads taken out as creeks turn to raging torrents. Power outages as winds take trees down due to saturated ground. A mess.
Joaquin moving closer to Bermuda.

Quoting 77. JLPR2:

Joaquin moving closer to Bermuda.




Will it do a direct hit or at least close enough for hurricane force winds?
Please be mindful that flood waters aren't the only danger..its whats in the waters that are even more dangerous..

Snakes and alligators are having a field day with all this rain..TWC showed a video this morning of people in the rain seeing snakes in the waters..

and then there is this:
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 42s43 seconds ago
NEW: 18.39" of rain has fallen in one location just east of Columbia, SC (Gills Creek). Information via @NWSColumbia
Quoting 79. ncstorm:

Please be mindful that flood waters aren't the only danger..its whats in the waters that are even more dangerous..

Snakes and alligators are having a field day with all this rain..TWC showed a video this morning of people in the rain seeing snakes in the waters..

and then there is this:



EXACTLY! Dont go traipsing thru that water without being AWARE of what could be in it.Been saying that for years on here since i am deathly afraid of snakes. Just be aware people. WHEN IN DOUBT, STAY OUT
Quoting 78. FunnelVortex:



Will it do a direct hit or at least close enough for hurricane force winds?


Seems like H winds might miss Bermuda, but if it moves even an inch off track then well yep...
84. IDTH
Rain's coming down real good here, woke up to to rain pelting up against my slide door in my room.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 4m4 minutes ago
Officials in both Columbia and Charleston, SC - current flood event "worse than Hugo"
Hype, try 16 people killed in French flooding as well. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34437228
Quoting 79. ncstorm:

Please be mindful that flood waters aren't the only danger..its whats in the waters that are even more dangerous..

Snakes and alligators are having a field day with all this rain..TWC showed a video this morning of people in the rain seeing snakes in the waters..

and then there is this:



Probably swam up from Lake Marion. It's happened to Raleigh suburbs too in the past.

I don't live too far from Smith's Creek, so tomorrow I'll be keeping a lookout if flooding is an issue inland.
Quoting 85. Luisport:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 4m4 minutes ago
Officials in both Columbia and Charleston, SC - current flood event "worse than Hugo"


The right-front quadrant of Hugo was just to the north of Charleston, so I don't doubt it. The towns just outside of Francis Marion Ntnl Forest (Awendaw, McClellanville, etc) saw 20+ ft surge and gusts well over 125 mph.
000
ASUS42 KILM 041513
RWRILM
RWRILM
REGIONAL HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

...............WFO WILMINGTON COUNTY WARNING AREA...............

......COASTAL NC AND SC COUNTIES......

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
WILMINGTON CLOUDY 74 71 91 NE17G24 29.75S
N MYRTLE BEACH HVY RAIN 74 71 91 NE15G35 29.70S FOG
MYRTLE BEACH TSTM 70 64 83 E12G23 29.75R VSB 1

......INLAND NC AND SC COUNTIES.......

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
LUMBERTON LGT RAIN 71 67 87 N17G25 29.78R FOG
ELIZABETHTOWN CLOUDY 74 70 86 NE6 29.78S
WHITEVILLE LGT RAIN 74 70 86 NE15G23 29.75R
FLORENCE RAIN 70 68 93 NE17 29.74S FOG
DARLINGTON CLOUDY 70 64 83 NE17G24 29.78S
KINGSTREE RAIN 68 68 100 NE7 29.69R
HARTSVILLE CLOUDY 66 64 94 NE20G29 29.77R
BENNETTSVILLE CLOUDY 72 68 88 NE22G33 29.78S
CONWAY NOT AVBL
GEORGETOWN NOT AVBL
MARION LGT RAIN 72 70 94 NE17 29.74S

....................REST OF NORTH CAROLINA......................

Eye becomes visible again. Won't be a direct hit for Bermuda, fortunately.
Edit: latest center fix from Recon: 957mb (down from 958 earlier). Straight to the north now.
Quoting 88. win1gamegiantsplease:



The right-front quadrant of Hugo was just to the north of Charleston, so I don't doubt it. The towns just outside of Francis Marion Ntnl Forest (Awendaw, McClellanville, etc) saw 20+ ft surge and gusts well over 125 mph.


Yeah, there's storm surge flooding as compared to flooding from excessive rainfall. The flooding associated with the surge from Hugo would have been extreme in the right front quadrant.
Quoting 92. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, there's storm surge flooding as compared to flooding from excessive rainfall. The flooding associated with the surge from Hugo would have been extreme in the right front quadrant.


Hugo was moving really fast, so this event surely has beat it in terms of rainfall.
91L floater needs to be moved Westward.
It looks great for Bermuda as Joaquin looks to pass west. I hope this is not a trend and reverts back east as he passes Bermuda.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW SHADOWMOSS 32.81N 80.09W
10/04/2015 M22.47 INCH CHARLESTON SC COCORAHS

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OVER LAST 60 HOURS. RESULTED
IN SEVERE FLOODING... MANY HOMES SURROUNDED BY WATER AND
MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE.
I think everything from Columbia, to Myrtle Beach and Charleston is gonna flood. Not that I know the area or anything, it just seems that (looking at maps and stuff) that would be the path of least resistance for the water.

Bermuda Webcam

Link
That's a FULL AND OVERFLOWING CoCoRAHS rain gauge!!

TWICE!!!!

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW SHADOWMOSS 32.81N 80.09W
10/04/2015 M22.47 INCH CHARLESTON SC COCORAHS
Quoting 93. win1gamegiantsplease:



Hugo was moving really fast, so this event surely has beat it in terms of rainfall.


Yeah, that was kind of the point. When comparing storm surge flooding and flooding from excessive rainfall you're looking a two different things.
Hugo's storm surge flooding would have been extreme in the right front quad along coastal beaches. That's not the case with this event.

This event is a prolonged rain event.

101. MahFL
Getting rough now in Bermuda, vis dropped a lot on the webcam.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

...CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY...
...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will
pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda
tonight.

Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
the hurricane moving nne now
They are getting blasted in Bermuda right now
NNE HUGER 21.04

NE MOUNT PLEASANT 24.23

Link
106. MahFL
The eye popped out again :


Quoting 97. aquak9:

I think everything from Columbia, to Myrtle Beach and Charleston is gonna flood. Not that I know the area or anything, it just seems that (looking at maps and stuff) that would be the path of least resistance for the water.




Aqua, I think we can say that pretty much all of SC is either flooded or saturated to the max. My CoCoRah has filled up completely one time. I'm on my second round with it.
UPDATE 4: COAST GUARD SEARCHING FOR MISSING CONTAINER SHIP CAUGHT IN HURRICANE JOAQUIN

Excerpt:

Life jackets, life rings, containers and an oil sheen have been located by Coast Guard aircrews. The objects have not been confirmed to be from the El Faro at this time.
It looks like Joaquin to a big jog west on last frames. You can really see the turn on water vapor loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animate d.gif
Afternoon, all.

Just checking in. Kept the water out by the skin of our teeth this morning. Completely exhausted. Three streets down in our neighborhood is under water. Everyone is trapped (in their homes) and no one can get out. We are praying the conveyor belt doesn't shift back south tonight, but the models are continuing to show this mess coming back to Summerville later.
Columbia, SC

Quoting 97. aquak9:

I think everything from Columbia, to Myrtle Beach and Charleston is gonna flood. Not that I know the area or anything, it just seems that (looking at maps and stuff) that would be the path of least resistance for the water.




The I26 corridor from Greenville through Columbia down to Charleston is nasty. My brother in law lives near Gills Creek where TWC keeps showing live reports. Columbia is going to continue to get worse because the rain keeps coming down. I've gotten lucky. The worst rainfall is 25-30 miles East of me.

04 Oct 2015 | Major Flooding in Columbia, SC #Flood #SCFlood #Columbia #Joaquin
115. FOREX
Quoting 111. nash36:

Afternoon, all.

Just checking in. Kept the water out by the skin of our teeth this morning. Completely exhausted. Three streets down in our neighborhood is under water. Everyone is trapped (in their homes) and no one can get out. We are praying the conveyor belt doesn't shift back south tonight, but the models are continuing to show this mess coming back to Summerville later.
A lot of bloggers were really concerned about you and your fellow SC neighbors overnight. Glad to hear from you. Do you still have power? Columbia is in real trouble right now in case you haven't been able to keep up with the latest news.
News 19 WLTX ‏@WLTX 21m21 minutes ago
"We need your help immediately. It's worse than you think" - Rep. Finlay's message to Gov. Nikki Haley #SCFlood
Due to the flooding, WLTX 19 reporting caskets coming out of the ground at local cemeteries.

Link
Quoting 115. FOREX:

A lot of bloggers were really concerned about you and your fellow SC neighbors overnight. Glad to hear from you. Do you still have power? Columbia is in real trouble right now in case you haven't been able to keep up with the latest news.


We have power. The situation in Columbia is dire. We'll all come together as a community.
Going to be Tuesday before all this rain clears out, hopefully late Monday. Long way to go today, really hope this does not retrograde back south as models are suggesting. Extremely dangerous situation with rivers continuing to grow at a rapid rate. Elderly, as in any extreme weather event,are the most vulnerable. Vast majority of deaths in Katrina were the elderly. Let's keep checking on our elderly neighbors. Nash, glad to hear your winning the battle currently! This raincane is not normal, or at least didn't use to be.
Checking in too from Summerville - our neighborhood is thankfully one of the few flood-free zones, other than minor runoff from the retention ponds, but areas just around us flooded pretty severely. We're staying warm and dry and hoping with Nash, that the rain belt doesn't point back our way this evening. Parents in Jedburg also okay though roads around them are impassable. Take care all!
121. beell


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0551
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1026 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 041415Z - 042015Z SUMMARY...A HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CONTINUING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE AND LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FEEDING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAS BEEN SLOWLY PIVOTING IN A CYCLONIC FASHION TO MORE OF A WEST/EAST ORIENTATION. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PERSISTENT AND INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO PIVOT VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH HAS TAKEN THE WORST OF THE RAINFALL OUT OF THE CHARLESTON METROPOLITAN AREA FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS COINCIDING WITH TREMENDOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS FOSTERING VIGOROUS ASCENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1.8 TO 2.3 INCH PW VALUES AS PER GOES-SOUNDER AND GPS DATA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE AGAIN IS ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE CIRA LAYERED PW PRODUCT. A RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS NOTED TOO NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT AND OFFSHORE...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG NEAR THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT INTO THE BOUNDARY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES...WHICH ARE NEAR 3 INCHES/HR WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE COAST.

HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE ON TOP OF AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN WELL IN EXCESS 12 INCHES OF RAIN...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF OVER 20 INCHES. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND WITH A STRONGER FOCUS CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOTED.

THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXACERBATE WHAT IS ALREADY A SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING EVENT WITH SEVERE AND LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON
HI Res model (which has NAILED this) is showing that fire hose come back to the south tonight, going through tomorrow morning.

Not.Good.News
124. beell
Quoting 109. frank727:

It looks like Joaquin to a big jog west on last frames. You can really see the turn on water vapor loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animate d.gif


Yeah, i think they might have tweak the models on Joaquin... they have it taking more of an ENE motion after it passes Bermuda. I don't see that happening at all. Judging by the visible satellite loop, seems his outflow is fanning out to the NW. That low in the southeast is really getting stronger too which is concerning too with regards to the influence on the track of Joaquin.
126. FOREX
SCE&G ‏@scegnews · 1m1 minute ago
If you smell natural gas (rotten egg odor), get to a safe place and then call us at 1-800-815-0083 FREE or call 911. #scwx #scflood #sctweets

From the WPC

THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS COINCIDING WITH TREMENDOUS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH IS FOSTERING VIGOROUS ASCENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
1.8 TO 2.3 INCH PW VALUES AS PER GOES-SOUNDER AND GPS DATA. SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE AGAIN IS ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN WELL
OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE CIRA LAYERED PW
PRODUCT.
130. FOREX
Hurricane Specialist is suggesting the conditions ahead for 91L to develop are not very good. I think that it a good thing. With what has happened in South Carolina, enough is enough.
Quoting 130. FOREX:

Hurricane Specialist is suggesting the conditions ahead for 91L to develop are not very good. I think that it a good thing. With what has happened in South Carolina, enough is enough.


Winds look fairly favorable over most of the Central Atlantic
Conditions in Bermuda intense right now on this weather cam:

http://portbermudawebcam.com/

so much for that #NotJoaquin..

This storm is affecting Bermuda and still impacting the US..has that happened before??
134. FOREX
Lexington Police(SC) ‏@LexingtonPD · 36m36 minutes ago
Barr Lake dam has been breached which will mean increased flows of Fourteenmile Creek from Gibson Pond to Old Mill Pond. #scflood

Quoting 125. dartboardmodel:



Yeah, i think they might have tweak the models on Joaquin... they have it taking more of an ENE motion after it passes Bermuda. I don't see that happening at all. Judging by the visible satellite loop, seems his outflow is fanning out to the NW. That low in the southeast is really getting stronger too which is concerning too with regards to the influence on the track of Joaquin.


Looks like the low in the southeast is influencing Joaquin back west. I hope this trend reverts back east. This could open up a whole new can of worms.

Hawaii
137. beell
The 850 mb moisture transport is the product of the wind speed (m/s) and the mixing ratio (g/g) at 850 mb. Values are scaled by factor of 100, such that a 40 kt (~20 m/s) wind speed and a 12 g/kg mixing ratio (0.012 g/g) results in a moisture transport of 24 m/s (the first pink shade in the color fill). High values of moisture transport have been related to heavy rainfall potential with convective systems.

reference: Junker, N. M., R. S. Schneider, and S. L. Fauver, 1999: A study of heavy rainfall events during the great Midwest flood of 1993. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 701-712.




1 hr (static) loop 11:55-12:55 EDT Wilmington, NC.

Juaquin doesnt like the Pressolinas, esp the main Pressolina....
nash if you are still here- PLEASE wu-mail someone your cell ph #. Just so we can keep up with you. I had your # when you were in Texas...

I don't care WHO, but someone needs to be able to know that you and SJ and Tigger and Bugg are all ok.

peace, love aqua

Click for the loop.
The wu forecast for cayman is cloudy with 30% chance showers.
There isn't a cloud between Jamaica and the Gulf of Mexico.....
Do they just guess?
142. FOREX
Quoting 135. frank727:



Looks like the low in the southeast is influencing Joaquin back west. I hope this trend reverts back east. This could open up a whole new can of worms.
Looks to be moving NE to me on visible, clearly.
Quoting 142. FOREX:

Looks to be moving NE to me on visible, clearly.
Quoting 135. frank727:



Looks like the low in the southeast is influencing Joaquin back west. I hope this trend reverts back east. This could open up a whole new can of worms.

I see no movement at all to the west. Perhaps you need to overlay the latitude and longitude grid on whatever satellite pic you're viewing to compensate for curvature.
Just incredible rainfall summaries for SC, if anyone thought the forecast was en exaggeration, they are wrong:


NOUS42 KCHS 041540
PNSCHS
GAZ087
-
088
-
099>101
-
114>119
-
137>141
-
SCZ040
-
042>045
-
047>052
-
050200
-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1140 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL REPORTS FROM
COCO
RAHS...ASOS...RAWS...AND SPOTTER REPORTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
GENERALLY 3
-
DAY AMOUNTS BEGINNING AT 7 AM THURSDAY 1 OCTOBER 2015.
********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
RAINFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
SOUTH CAROLINA
...ALLENDALE COUNTY...
2 SE ALLENDALE 2.61 600 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
...BEAUFORT COUNTY...
4 N HILTO
N HEAD ISLA 5.77 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 NNE BEAUFORT 5.47 839 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 N BEAUFORT 5.30 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 NNE BLUFFTON 2.15 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
6 WNW BLUFFTON 2.04 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
...BERKELEY COUNTY...
3 NNE HUGER 21.04 900 AM 10/04 USGS SITE
1 NNW LIMERICK 19.71 900 AM 10/04 RAWS
5 NNW HUGER 1
8.32 429 AM 10/04 STORM TOTAL
4 E MONCKS CORNER 17.02 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SSW WANDO 16.90 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NW BONNEAU 16.71 1030 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NE MONCKS CORNER 16.17 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SSW DANIEL ISLAND 15.67 830 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SSE HANAHAN 15.30 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
7 SW MONCKS CORNER 15.08 800 A
M 10/04 COCORAHS
1 N HANAHAN 14.39 945 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NE SUMMERVILLE 13.75 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 NE SUMMERVILLE 13.36 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
5 WNW GOOSE CREEK 12.96 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
5 E GOOSE CREEK 12.79 900 AM 10/04 USGS SITE
...CHARLESTON COUNTY...
6 NE MOUNT PLEASANT 24.23 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 SSW SHAD
OWMOSS 22.47 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
5 SSE CHARLESTON 20.37 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 NNW KIAWAH ISLAND 18.25 700 AM 10/04 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S CHARLESTON 17.04 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 NNW GARRIS LANDING 17.03 427 AM 10/04 STORM TOTAL
1 NNE JAMES ISLAND C 17.00 929 AM 10/04 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 ENE CHARLESTON 16.88 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 E CHARLESTON 16.84
700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
CHARLESTON AIRPORT 16.61 900 AM 10/04 ASOS
6 NW CHARLESTON 16.52 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
NWS CHARLESTON SC 16.49 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NE CHARLESTON 16.46 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 ESE NORTH CHARLEST 16.32 823 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 ESE MOUNT PLEASANT 16.16 711 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 NE JOHNS ISLAND 15.91 730 AM 10/04
COCORAHS
2 NE KIAWAH ISLAND 15.69 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 N NORTH CHARLESTON 15.33 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NNE CHARLESTON 15.14 745 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
5 SW AWENDAW
15.02 723 AM 10/04 RAWS
CHARLESTON 14.74 930 AM 10/04 OFFICIAL NWS OBS
5 WNW CHARLESTON 14.74 600 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 WSW MOUNT PLEASANT 14.37 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SW MOUNT PLEASANT 14.26 640 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
CHARLESTON INTERNATI 14.22 756 AM 10/04 ASOS
2 SSW WADMALAW ISLAN 14.02 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 ESE MCCLELLANVILLE 13.88 800 AM
10/04 COCORAHS
2 WSW CHARLESTON 13.88 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 E MOUNT PLEASANT 13.78 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
ESE MCCLELLANVILLE 13.78 630 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 WNW RA
VENEL 12.02 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 W MEGGETT 11.77 745 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 S MOUNT PLEASANT 11.70 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
...COLLETON COUNTY...
3 ENE WALTERBORO 7.87
800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 ENE WALTERBORO 7.57 707 AM 10/04 RAWS
3 NNW WALTERBORO 7.37 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 SW LODGE 6.31 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
8 NE YEMASSEE 5.29 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
ESE SMOAKS 5.08 600 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
...DORCHESTER COUNTY...
3 NW SUMMERVILLE 17.23 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SSW SUMMERVILLE
15.86 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 N SUMMERVILLE 15.16 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 W SUMMERVILLE 14.65 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
7 S RIDGEVILLE 13.62 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
SUMMERVILLE 4W 14.75 700 AM 10/04 CO
-
OP OBSERVER



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
...SEVERAL RAINFALL RECORDS SET AT CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT
AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
CHARLESTON AIRPORT RAINFALL RECORDS
GREATEST 1
-
DAY RAINFALL.....11.50 INCHES SET ON OCTOBER 3 2015
OLD 1
-
DAY RAINFALL RECORD...10.52 INCHES SET ON SEPTEMBER 21 1998
GREATEST 2
-
DAY RAINFALL.....13.11 INCHES SET ON OCTOBER 2
-
3
2015
OLD 2
-
DAY RAINFALL RECORD...11.10 INCHES SET ON JUNE 10
-
11 1973
GREATEST 3
-
DAY RAINFALL.....14.48 INCHES SET ON OCTOBER 1
-
3 2015
OLD 3
-
DAY RAINFALL RECORD...11.95 INCHES SET ON JUNE 9
-
11 1973
GREATEST MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL..16.61 INCHES THROUG
H 9 AM TODAY
OLD MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL.......12.11 INCHES SET IN 1994
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON RAINFALL RECORD
GREATEST 3
-
DAY RAINFALL.....13.80 INCHES SET ON OCTOBER 1
-
3 2015
OLD 3
-
DAY RAINFALL RECORD...12.39 INCHES SET ON JUNE 9
-
11 1973
GREATEST MONTH
LY OCTOBER RAINFALL..14.25 INCHES THROUGH 430 AM TODAY
OLD MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL.......11.74 INCHES SET IN 1959
Kathryn Prociv ‏@KathrynProciv 2h2 hours ago
Radar underestimating rain totals, rain gauges failing/overflowing & river gauges now getting swept away @JimCantore

Click to enlarge. Very interesting development (lacking other words as a foreigner ...)
A very bad and avoidable situation in Guatemala.
Pressure from the lack of housing in areas close to big city's leads to a lot of unsafe building locations.

Here in Europe the south of France has had some very bad flooding with at least 3 people dead so far.

Link

The areas worst-hit by flooding were also the hardest to access, officials said, raising fears the death toll could rise again, while 35,000 homes were confirmed to be without power.
Quoting 137. beell:

The 850 mb moisture transport is the product of the wind speed (m/s) and the mixing ratio (g/g) at 850 mb. Values are scaled by factor of 100, such that a 40 kt (~20 m/s) wind speed and a 12 g/kg mixing ratio (0.012 g/g) results in a moisture transport of 24 m/s (the first pink shade in the color fill). High values of moisture transport have been related to heavy rainfall potential with convective systems.

reference: Junker, N. M., R. S. Schneider, and S. L. Fauver, 1999: A study of heavy rainfall events during the great Midwest flood of 1993. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 701-712.




1 hr (static) loop 11:55-12:55 EDT Wilmington, NC.




Yep for sure. Moisture transport speed along a low level jet is more crucial than instability and PW's. Though PW's were also very high here, but in the cool season, extreme rain amounts are possible with lower PW values that result from strong moisture transport via low level jet. Usually this is common with EL Nino events that result in Flooding, such as the 10-15 inches in parts of Central FL in a December 1997 El Nino event.


And, it's pretty strait forward as to why persistent speed convergence under low level jet with moisture transport is so important for heavy rain events. The speed of the moisture flow is essentially replacing air that is attempting to become stable from heavy precip. This allows round after round of heavy rain to move through an area without activity weakening and dying down in the target zone. Usually when winds are light, precip maximizes locally around 3-4 inches before heavy rainfall will inevitably die down and move elsewhere regardless of moisture and available instability due to atmospheric stabilization.
I'm fine. Aqua. You have my phone #, don't you? I know several people here that have it. WUmail me if you need to.

Right where I am in West Ashley, there's not much flooding. As you know, I had a couple of close calls with that big drainage ditch behind the house threatening to jump it's banks yesterday. The rain would stop just in time to allow it to go down.

The fellow who tried to turn his van off Wappoo Rd just down the block, wasn't so lucky. He misjudged and ended up in the ditch. That was after we locked up and headed to bed. Saw it when I went out to get the paper this a.m.
I have family in Florence and Columbia, SC..they are staying put and riding it out the best they can..

those that lurk and blog here on a regular basis in both SC and NC please heed your local officials and stay off the roads..sinkholes are being reported over both states and if you are driving on flooding roads you won't see them..

I'll be back later..

Hurricane Joaquin:


Bermudas:
Link
Quoting 132. NCHurricane2009:

Conditions in Bermuda intense right now on this weather cam:

http://portbermudawebcam.com/

Absolutely. Breathtaking for an European, as always with this kind of storms :o


Screenshot. Now visibility is even lower:




Ehhh ... I don't get it. Wow. Watch it if you can! Rare opportunity!


Current radar. Heavy squall, quite far away from the eyewall, but nevertheless that strong. Hope there won't be any victims. With Gonzalo last year (in the middle of the night) there was at least a little break with the amazing calmness of the eye.
And a very resilient camera this is. Thanks to those admins in Bermuda!
155. FOREX
News 19 WLTX ‏@WLTX · 17s18 seconds ago
#BREAKING: City of Sumter puts curfew in place from 7 p.m. today to 7 a.m. tomorrow

folks in sc beware. Caskets, basement, underground tanks, dumpsters, small houses and trailers are gonna float in this event,. Culverts under roads will wash out. Bridges will be stressed as creeks and small streams will flow backwards . Power lines will be closer than normal when you float under them. Utilites will fail for days. Snakes will be on your porches and cars (as will other wildlife). They are drowning to. People will get mean and stressed after about 4 days . After about a week of no power and water everywhere it will smell. Deer will mass up in high places (and be slaughtered by people with no decency) . Mosquitoes will be bad. Saw all of this after Floyd first hand as a vol. fireman. Had to get tb and other shots due to contaminated water. Mentally prepare now as its going to be a long Oct. Prayers to you all.
This is the back yard where my son was stranded last night, at his friend's place on the banks of Awendaw Creek. You can see the end of the submerged deck-to-dock that's usually well above water level. They're getting a ton more rain right up there now, and of course, more is going to be coming down from upcountry as the day goes on. My daughter in Lexington (where dams and levees are breaking] tells me the spillways are going to be opened on the Lake Murray dam because it is 3 feet from flood top.

Although the house in Awendaw is on stilts at the height of the back porch steps you can see in the foreground, I'm still pretty concerned. But he can't get out anyway, not even in his pickup, so.....

Quoting 157. GreyJewel:

This is the back yard where my son was stranded last night, at his friend's place on the banks of Awendaw Creek. You can see the end of the submerged dock that's usually well above water level. They're getting a ton more rain right up there now, and of course, more is going to be coming down from upcountry as the day goes on. My daughter in Lexington (where dams and levees are breaking] tells me the spillways are going to be opened on the Lake Murray dam because it is 3 feet from flood top.

Although the house in Awendawis on stilts at the height of the back porch steps you can see in the foreground, I'm still pretty concerned. But he can't get out anyway, not even in his pickup, so.....




Oh dear god!!! My prayers are with you and your family!
Quoting 132. NCHurricane2009:

Conditions in Bermuda intense right now on this weather cam:

http://portbermudawebcam.com/


Those are just the outer bands of Joaquin. Looks like the core of Joaquin will miss Bermuda.
greyjewel ... that creeks gonna flow like a freight train. call 911 and get them out
Quoting 144. Jedkins01:

Just incredible rainfall summaries for SC, if anyone thought the forecast was en exaggeration, they are wrong:


NOUS42 KCHS 041540
PNSCHS
GAZ087
-
088
-
099>101
-
114>119
-
137>141
-
SCZ040
-
042>045
-
047>052
-
050200
-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1140 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL REPORTS FROM
COCO
RAHS...ASOS...RAWS...AND SPOTTER REPORTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
GENERALLY 3
-
DAY AMOUNTS BEGINNING AT 7 AM THURSDAY 1 OCTOBER 2015.
********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
RAINFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
SOUTH CAROLINA
...ALLENDALE COUNTY...
2 SE ALLENDALE 2.61 600 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
...BEAUFORT COUNTY...
4 N HILTO
N HEAD ISLA 5.77 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 NNE BEAUFORT 5.47 839 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 N BEAUFORT 5.30 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 NNE BLUFFTON 2.15 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
6 WNW BLUFFTON 2.04 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
...BERKELEY COUNTY...
3 NNE HUGER 21.04 900 AM 10/04 USGS SITE
1 NNW LIMERICK 19.71 900 AM 10/04 RAWS
5 NNW HUGER 1
8.32 429 AM 10/04 STORM TOTAL
4 E MONCKS CORNER 17.02 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SSW WANDO 16.90 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NW BONNEAU 16.71 1030 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NE MONCKS CORNER 16.17 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SSW DANIEL ISLAND 15.67 830 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SSE HANAHAN 15.30 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
7 SW MONCKS CORNER 15.08 800 A
M 10/04 COCORAHS
1 N HANAHAN 14.39 945 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NE SUMMERVILLE 13.75 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 NE SUMMERVILLE 13.36 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
5 WNW GOOSE CREEK 12.96 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
5 E GOOSE CREEK 12.79 900 AM 10/04 USGS SITE
...CHARLESTON COUNTY...
6 NE MOUNT PLEASANT 24.23 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 SSW SHAD
OWMOSS 22.47 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
5 SSE CHARLESTON 20.37 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 NNW KIAWAH ISLAND 18.25 700 AM 10/04 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S CHARLESTON 17.04 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 NNW GARRIS LANDING 17.03 427 AM 10/04 STORM TOTAL
1 NNE JAMES ISLAND C 17.00 929 AM 10/04 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 ENE CHARLESTON 16.88 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 E CHARLESTON 16.84
700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
CHARLESTON AIRPORT 16.61 900 AM 10/04 ASOS
6 NW CHARLESTON 16.52 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
NWS CHARLESTON SC 16.49 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NE CHARLESTON 16.46 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 ESE NORTH CHARLEST 16.32 823 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 ESE MOUNT PLEASANT 16.16 711 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 NE JOHNS ISLAND 15.91 730 AM 10/04
COCORAHS
2 NE KIAWAH ISLAND 15.69 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
4 N NORTH CHARLESTON 15.33 900 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 NNE CHARLESTON 15.14 745 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
5 SW AWENDAW
15.02 723 AM 10/04 RAWS
CHARLESTON 14.74 930 AM 10/04 OFFICIAL NWS OBS
5 WNW CHARLESTON 14.74 600 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 WSW MOUNT PLEASANT 14.37 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SW MOUNT PLEASANT 14.26 640 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
CHARLESTON INTERNATI 14.22 756 AM 10/04 ASOS
2 SSW WADMALAW ISLAN 14.02 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 ESE MCCLELLANVILLE 13.88 800 AM
10/04 COCORAHS
2 WSW CHARLESTON 13.88 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 E MOUNT PLEASANT 13.78 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
ESE MCCLELLANVILLE 13.78 630 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 WNW RA
VENEL 12.02 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 W MEGGETT 11.77 745 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 S MOUNT PLEASANT 11.70 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
...COLLETON COUNTY...
3 ENE WALTERBORO 7.87
800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 ENE WALTERBORO 7.57 707 AM 10/04 RAWS
3 NNW WALTERBORO 7.37 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
3 SW LODGE 6.31 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
8 NE YEMASSEE 5.29 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
ESE SMOAKS 5.08 600 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
...DORCHESTER COUNTY...
3 NW SUMMERVILLE 17.23 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
1 SSW SUMMERVILLE
15.86 800 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 N SUMMERVILLE 15.16 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
2 W SUMMERVILLE 14.65 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
7 S RIDGEVILLE 13.62 700 AM 10/04 COCORAHS
SUMMERVILLE 4W 14.75 700 AM 10/04 CO
-
OP OBSERVER





I can personally attest, Jed, it is most certainly NOT an exaggeration. In our area, Summerville/Ladson, we got over 20"
Mayor Summey in North Charleston has issued a mandatory curfew, starting tonight at 10pm. Curfew goes to 6am tomorrow morning.
Quoting 125. dartboardmodel:



Yeah, i think they might have tweak the models on Joaquin... they have it taking more of an ENE motion after it passes Bermuda. I don't see that happening at all. Judging by the visible satellite loop, seems his outflow is fanning out to the NW. That low in the southeast is really getting stronger too which is concerning too with regards to the influence on the track of Joaquin.
What you're seeing is an optical illusion caused by increasing outflow from the storm as it weakens. Dry air is impinging on the outflow to the south as well, giving Joaquin a lopsided look that appears to be a west movement when it's not. More of the outflow north is going west due to the broad circulation on the mid-Atlantic, but the center of the storm is continuing NNE, with on occasional jog a little more north of east. This was predicted by the models last night, with the jog becoming more pronounced as the storm approached Bermuda. It should start on a sharp NE track in the next 24 hours as it approaches a stalled trough to the north.

You can go to Tropical Atlantic and view the track in Google Earth for much more accurate view of the track than what you can get by the finger on the monitor method of looking at satellite photos. The next land mass that has to concern itself with Joaquin is Ireland, and it may make it there as a tropical storm.
164. SLU
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 041205
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 4 DE OCTUBRE DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN JOAQUIN...LOCALIZADO A 200 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE BERMUDA.

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS CONTINUA SIENDO MINIMA CON UN AREA DE BAJA
PRESION LOCALIZADA COMO A 800 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTAN TORNANDOSE MENOS FAVORABLES DEBIDO
A LA CERCANIA DEL HURACAN JOAQUIN...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO


UN AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AMPLIO AREA
DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS. LOS VIENTOS EN LOS ALTOS
NIVELES NO SON PARTICULARMENTE CONDUCENTES PARA LA FORMACION DE UN
CICLON TROPICAL Y CUALQUIER DESARROLLO SERA LENTO EN OCURRIR DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DE 10 A
15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA
DE 10 POR CIENTO
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN LOS PROXIMOS 5 DIAS...BAJA...30 POR
CIENTO

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
Quoting 162. nash36:

Mayor Summey in North Charleston has issued a mandatory curfew, starting tonight at 10pm. Curfew goes to 6am tomorrow morning.
Hey, Nash. It's kind of ironic, but the curfew is a good sign the worst of the rain will be coming to an end. Once that happens, the creatures of the night start coming out. I hope the locals have enough mutual aid to keep a tight patrol of the area.
Quoting 157. GreyJewel:

This is the back yard where my son was stranded last night, at his friend's place on the banks of Awendaw Creek. You can see the end of the submerged deck-to-dock that's usually well above water level. They're getting a ton more rain right up there now, and of course, more is going to be coming down from upcountry as the day goes on. My daughter in Lexington (where dams and levees are breaking] tells me the spillways are going to be opened on the Lake Murray dam because it is 3 feet from flood top.

Although the house in Awendaw is on stilts at the height of the back porch steps you can see in the foreground, I'm still pretty concerned. But he can't get out anyway, not even in his pickup, so.....


Does he feel like the house is high enough above water that the flooding is not going to get in? Does he feel the structure is sound, not moving or shaking? If so, he'll probably be OK. If not, he should call 911 and request a rescue. This is what I used to do in floods, and I imagine the authorities have a number of water rescue teams out and about. If he thinks he needs to leave, do it now, and don't wait until it starts to get dark. It tremendously complicates the rescue problems.
Quoting 157. GreyJewel:

This is the back yard where my son was stranded last night, at his friend's place on the banks of Awendaw Creek. You can see the end of the submerged deck-to-dock that's usually well above water level. They're getting a ton more rain right up there now, and of course, more is going to be coming down from upcountry as the day goes on. My daughter in Lexington (where dams and levees are breaking] tells me the spillways are going to be opened on the Lake Murray dam because it is 3 feet from flood top.

Although the house in Awendaw is on stilts at the height of the back porch steps you can see in the foreground, I'm still pretty concerned. But he can't get out anyway, not even in his pickup, so.....

img

src="http://www.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/ g/GreyJewel/2.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">


They need to be evacuated now before it gets dark.. They need to call 911 and get help out there.
Quoting 160. number4steel:

greyjewel ... that creeks gonna flow like a freight train.


Probably. Hence my concern.

call 911 and get them out


My son and his friend are strong, smart men in their late 20s. Son is a residential construction expert and friend is a dock construction expert. They know what's under them and around them, and might be able to improvise something if it comes to a crisis.

So I'm going to let them make their own call on this.

Besides, who would come for them now, and how? And where could they take them? I heard earlier that US 17 was flooded and closed from the SeeWee Restaurant up to ?Georgetown?, which is also awash to the shoulder.

So.

Let's leave the emergency calling to any of their neighbors on the creek, who may not have as much knowledge or strength or even materials to hand, and whose situation is such that the rescue is a life-saving gamble (worth the risk).
USCGSoutheast ‏@USCGSoutheast 40 Min.Vor 40 Minuten
#BreakingNews @USCGSoutheast Video Release: Recovery of #ElFaro life ring.

Sad. Better there was a living person with this life ring :-(
Quoting 165. sar2401:

Hey, Nash. It's kind of ironic, but the curfew is a good sign the worst of the rain will be coming to an end. Once that happens, the creatures of the night start coming out. I hope the locals have enough mutual aid to keep a tight patrol of the area.
I think as with Sumter, its more because everything is flooded and they want people not to be swept away and die.
As forecast, it is raining at my location in Soo Cal.......light to moderate, mostly from a 7000-10000 foot deep marine layer and a southerly wind to orographically lift that. The main ULL can be seen heading into Soo Cal currently by Point Conception. Forecasters calling for anywhere from 1/2" to 2" in the mountains of Soo Cal.






Quoting 147. barbamz:


Click to enlarge. Very interesting development (lacking other words as a foreigner ...)
If you mean that movement more north than east, that was expected as the storm approached Bermuda. It will resume a more NE movement once it's past, and make a sharp turn to the NE in about 24 hours. After that, it's headed toward...You! :-)
Quoting 170. Methurricanes:

I think as with Sumter, its more because everything is flooded and they want people not to be swept away and die.
I think everything was flooded last night as well, and there was no curfew. If the weather is bad enough, you don't need a curfew, Mother Nature provides one. Once things improve, and those with a shopping list can get about, is when you need a curfew.
Quoting 150. Gearsts:




Please tell me it's not gonna be poor Taiwan again!
175. FOREX
Steve Benjamin ‏@SteveBenjaminSC · 11m11 minutes ago
We have issued a system-wide boil water advisory for City of Columbia water. Do not use the water without boiling it.

Quoting 173. sar2401:

I think everything was flooded last night as well, and there was no curfew. If the weather is bad enough, you don't need a curfew, Mother Nature provides one. Once things improve, and those with a shopping list can get about, is when you need a curfew.
The water is higher, and in the midlands/upstate dams are breaking, roads are washing out so they want people to stay home, USC it shut down and people were told to shelter in place for example. also its still pouring in many parts of the state.
My friend in Holden Beach said the water is higher than they've ever seen it and the rain is still coming down. Holden Beach is close to the NC/SC border.
Man I remember watching that webcam last year for Gonzalo
Quoting 172. sar2401:

If you mean that movement more north than east, that was expected as the storm approached Bermuda. It will resume a more NE movement once it's past, and make a sharp turn to the NE in about 24 hours. After that, it's headed toward...You! :-)

Hey Sar. I mean the whole interaction of those troughs and highs with dry air and the tropical moisture together with a strong hurricane captured in between. Haven't witnessed something like this so far!
Hmm, Joaquin in Europe? The latest from 00z Euro I've seen was that the storm should recurve OTS off Ireland but would nevertheless influence our continental weather. Will have a look at the latest run later.
Quoting 178. JrWeathermanFL:

Man I remember watching that webcam last year for Gonzalo

I do as well. One of my most exciting moments in respect to internet weather watching was: listening to the crickets in Bermuda in the nightly eye of Gonzalo.
Quoting 168. GreyJewel:



Probably. Hence my concern.

call 911 and get them out


My son and his friend are strong, smart men in their late 20s. Son is a residential construction expert and friend is a dock construction expert. They know what's under them and around them, and might be able to improvise something if it comes to a crisis.

So I'm going to let them make their own call on this.

Besides, who would come for them now, and how? And where could they take them? I heard earlier that US 17 was flooded and closed from the SeeWee Restaurant up to ?Georgetown?, which is also awash to the shoulder.

So.

Let's leave the emergency calling to any of their neighbors on the creek, who may not have as much knowledge or strength or even materials to hand, and whose situation is such that the rescue is a life-saving gamble (worth the risk).
I was kind of under the impression your son knew what he was doing from your post. As long as the structure is sound and water's not going to get in, the risks from a rescue exceed staying put. I'm sure there are teams in IRB's that can rescue people in more precarious situations, and there's dry land to transfer them to, but we would have had a raised eyebrow motoring up to that house and wondering exactly why they needed to be rescued.
Quoting 179. barbamz:


Hey Sar. I mean the whole interaction of those troughs and highs with dry air and the tropical moisture together with a strong hurricane captured in between. Haven't witnessed something like this so far!
Hmm, Joaquin in Europe? The latest with 00z Euro was that the storm should recurve OTS off Ireland but would nevertheless influence our continental weather. Will have a look at the latest run later.
It's quite the dynamic weather situation, isn't it? Maybe a little more than we expected in a Super Godzilla El Nino year. :-) I haven't looked beyond Ireland, so you're probably right about the impacts on Europe, although I'm sure the remnants of Joaquin will be enough to stir things up. The west coast of Ireland is going to get quite a pounding from Joaquin before its done.
Just out: another depressing video:
Video: Bahamas Damage Assesment
U.S. Coast Guard District 7
Landslides in Guatemala...
Flooding in SC and in South East in France
Joaquin in Bahamzs ans Bermuda
...And NO RAIN FOR US in our area
Quoting 177. DurhamWeatherLover:

My friend in Holden Beach said the water is higher than they've ever seen it and the rain is still coming down. Holden Beach is close to the NC/SC border.


Yes my parents are very near Holden Beach. Its where i grew up. They are hunkered down but he has about 200 pine trees hes worried about
187. 882MB
Quoting 186. K8eCane:



Yes my parents are very near Holden Beach. Its where i grew up. They are hunkered down but he has about 200 pine trees hes worried about


My friend lives on the canal and it is in their back yard. The street side is starting to flood too.
Quoting 183. barbamz:

Just out: another depressing video:
Video: Bahamas Damage Assesment
U.S. Coast Guard District 7
I wish they would have included some location information. Looks like pretty extensive flooding and wind damage.
Quoting 188. DurhamWeatherLover:



My friend lives on the canal and it is in their back yard. The street side is starting to flood too.


Are they trying to stay or go?
Quoting 190. K8eCane:



Are they trying to stay or go?


They are staying. The house is on stilts.
Quoting 176. Methurricanes:

The water is higher, and in the midlands/upstate dams are breaking, roads are washing out so they want people to stay home, USC it shut down and people were told to shelter in place for example. also its still pouring in many parts of the state.
Perhaps that's the reason, but high water drowns people as well in daylight as after dark. There are other after dark activities a curfew is usually meant to control.
Quoting 173. sar2401:

I think everything was flooded last night as well, and there was no curfew. If the weather is bad enough, you don't need a curfew, Mother Nature provides one. Once things improve, and those with a shopping list can get about, is when you need a curfew.

They may have been sorry they were not under curfew. So many rescues of folks in vehicles. Night greatly complicates these. My understanding is that North Charleston had called out the divers and were working multiple water vehicle rescues last night.


new INVEST 94E
Quoting 174. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Please tell me it's not gonna be poor Taiwan again!
Big right hook with Choi-wan. Looks like one that's not going to become a super typhoon either.

Quoting 191. DurhamWeatherLover:



They are staying. The house is on stilts.



STILTS RULE ( I hope)
Quoting 196. K8eCane:




STILTS RULE ( I hope)


It would take a 20 ft storm surge to get water in their house. I think they will be ok. They said they will leave if the water continues to rise.
Quoting 198. DurhamWeatherLover:



It would take a 20 ft storm surge to get water in their house. I think they will be ok. They said they will leave if the water continues to rise.


Ive been hearing some projections of the rain train turning back south tonight. I hope not. Dont know how much more SC can take
Quoting 193. SC29483:


They may have been sorry they were not under curfew. So many rescues of folks in vehicles. Night greatly complicates these. My understanding is that North Charleston had called out the divers and were working multiple water vehicle rescues last night.
I'm sure they were, but a curfew usually means people are out and about on dry land, and there are police on patrol to try to prevent them being out. If everything is flooded, a curfew is unenforceable and generally not needed. People driving into water water happens at all hours, so you'd need a 24 hour curfew to prevent that.
Quoting 199. K8eCane:



Ive been hearing some projections of the rain train turning back south tonight. I hope not. Dont know how much more SC can take


I wish it could just stop. My area (Raleigh/Durham) didn't get as much as expected.
Dr. Forbes believes a piece of energy from the Low will wrap around and force the line back into the Charleston area tonight/overnight.

He's been almost seer like since this whole thing started. In other words, you can make bank on it coming back.
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 2m2 minutes ago
The #Congaree River in downtown Columbia, South Carolina has reached its highest level since 1936: #SCwx
Quoting 202. nash36:

Dr. Forbes believes a piece of energy from the Low will wrap around and force the line back into the Charleston area tonight/overnight.

He's been almost seer like since this whole thing started. In other words, you can make bank on it coming back.



Ive been hearing those projections. Scary, just scary
Quoting 182. sar2401:

It's quite the dynamic weather situation, isn't it? Maybe a little more than we expected in a Super Godzilla El Nino year. :-) I haven't looked beyond Ireland, so you're probably right about the impacts on Europe, although I'm sure the remnants of Joaquin will be enough to stir things up. The west coast of Ireland is going to get quite a pounding from Joaquin before its done.

Just had a look at the latest 12z run from the "Euro" at wundermap: hmm, surprise, Ex-Joaquin (but I'm quite sure they'll keep the name in Europe) is now expected to travel much more south right at the coast of France on Saturday (run doesn't let me see further). Suspense ...
Anyone have a link to the live streaming Bermuda cam?
Quoting 206. Huracan94:

Anyone have a link to the live streaming Bermuda cam?

http://portbermudawebcam.com/
Storm is now lessening. They are just assessing the damage on the roofs around the cam.

Here is Bermuda Earth-cam. Boats still there :-)
Quoting 200. sar2401:

I'm sure they were, but a curfew usually means people are out and about on dry land, and there are police on patrol to try to prevent them being out. If everything is flooded, a curfew is unenforceable and generally not needed. People driving into water water happens at all hours, so you'd need a 24 hour curfew to prevent that.
its harder to see how much/how fast/how deep water is at night as opposed to during the day, and water rescues are much more difficult during the night
Quoting 201. DurhamWeatherLover:



I wish it could just stop. My area (Raleigh/Durham) didn't get as much as expected.


Here in ILM its raining, windy and undistinguishable from tropical storms we've had. I cant say what our finaloutcome will be at this point but we are certainly not getting it as bad as SC
Have some friends with many adopted children in Swansea South Carolina, can't reach them? It is South of Columbia County. Anyone here know if the deluge went that far south? Thanks in advance.
Skies absolutely broke just now
A surprisingly soggy day in the Tampa area despite a very dry air mass above the low levels. The reason why is strong upper level energy is helping to force convection in the colder air aloft from the upper low.


Current conditions at
Tampa, Tampa International Airport (KTPA)
Lat: 27.96°NLon: 82.54°WElev: 26ft.

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist

73°F

23°C
Humidity 87%
Wind Speed NW 13 G 21 mph
Barometer 29.69 in (1005.2 mb)
Dewpoint 69°F (21°C)
Visibility 2.00 mi
Last update 4 Oct 2:53 pm EDT

More Information:

Local Forecast Office
More Local Wx
3 Day History
Mobile Weather
Quoting 87. win1gamegiantsplease:



Probably swam up from Lake Marion. It's happened to Raleigh suburbs too in the past.

I don't live too far from Smith's Creek, so tomorrow I'll be keeping a lookout if flooding is an issue inland.
The picture is at least two years old, probably older. It's of a saltwater crocodile in Australia. There are tons of fake flood pictures showing up on FB and twitter. If you're using Chrome, anyone can right click on a picture and choose "Search Google for this picture". It will usually show a fake pretty easily. Once pictures get on more respected sites like this, they spread even faster, so it would be good if we took the time to check pictures before posting them.

Quoting 211. win1gamegiantsplease:

Skies absolutely broke just now


Agreed....rain train here in Wrightsboro too
I'm told by a friend that they went to Wrightsville Beach this morning, not much beach at all. Under a coastal flood advisory.
Nobody remembered this but, Joaquin is the strongest hurricane in the North Atlantic during October month, since Wilma in 2005. 10 years!!!!!
Quoting 215. win1gamegiantsplease:

I'm told by a friend that they went to Wrightsville Beach this morning, not much beach at all. Under a coastal flood advisory.


WOW! wish you had a pic
CRAZY thunder here....like rifle blasts
Jon Evans from WECT is tweeting frequently
Quoting 208. Methurricanes:

its harder to see how much/how fast/how deep water is at night as opposed to during the day, and water rescues are much more difficult during the night
I know. I did them for 27 years. Maybe the purpose of this curfew is different than the ones I'm used to in California floods.
Quoting 216. pablosyn:

Nobody remembered this but, Joaquin is the strongest hurricane in the North Atlantic during October month, since Wilma in 2005. 10 years!!!!!


EDIT
And tied for the strongest hurricane since 2007. Hurricane Gustav 2008 and Hurricane Igor 2010 also had winds of 155 Mph. A very impressive hurricane!

Welp. I should probably read a little better next time.
Quoting 207. barbamz:


http://portbermudawebcam.com/
Storm is now lessening. They are just assessing the damage on the roofs around the cam.

Here is Bermuda Earth-cam. Boats still there :-)

Thanks for the Earth cam one, that one works for me, none of the Port Cams seem to work here.
Charleston SC has a curfew...good thing for the nuts that think they can wander out in this constantly unfolding weather event
Quoting 171. HurricaneHunterJoe:

As forecast, it is raining at my location in Soo Cal.......light to moderate, mostly from a 7000-10000 foot deep marine layer and a southerly wind to orographically lift that. The main ULL can be seen heading into Soo Cal currently by Point Conception. Forecasters calling for anywhere from 1/2" to 2" in the mountains of Soo Cal.








Continuing to see more rain events in southern CA in a dry time of year is a good sign. There's a good chance that with a powerful El Nino that you guys will get many rain events this winter and will replace those brown and burned hills with green and wet hills by the end of the winter.
Quoting 213. sar2401:

The picture is at least two years old, probably older. It's of a saltwater crocodile in Australia. There are tons of fake flood pictures showing up on FB and twitter. If you're using Chrome, anyone can right click on a picture and choose "Search Google for this picture". It will usually show a fake pretty easily. Once pictures get on more respected sites like this, they spread even faster, so it would be good if we took the time to check pictures before posting them.



Very good to know. Use FF, but will use chrome before posting pics that are unknown source.
Quoting 212. Jedkins01:

A surprisingly soggy day in the Tampa area despite a very dry air mass above the low levels. The reason why is strong upper level energy is helping to force convection in the colder air aloft from the upper low.


Current conditions at
Tampa, Tampa International Airport (KTPA)
Lat: 27.96°NLon: 82.54°WElev: 26ft.

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist

73°F

23°C
Humidity 87%
Wind Speed NW 13 G 21 mph
Barometer 29.69 in (1005.2 mb)
Dewpoint 69°F (21°C)
Visibility 2.00 mi
Last update 4 Oct 2:53 pm EDT

More Information:

Local Forecast Office
More Local Wx
3 Day History
Mobile Weather

As usual, nothing happening in SE Alabama. Overcast, and it looks like it should rain but, other than a few spits of drizzle, nothing. 68 degrees with a breezy north wind. I kind of hate even talking about a lack of rain with what's going on in SC, but BMX gave me a 40% chance of showers today (not happening), a 20% chance tonight (not happening), and then sunny and warmer for the rest of the week.
Quoting 209. K8eCane:



Here in ILM its raining, windy and undistinguishable from tropical storms we've had. I cant say what our finaloutcome will be at this point but we are certainly not getting it as bad as SC


Not over yet, but we dodged both a hurricane and what SC got. All things considered over the last several years, NC has been decent with our luck.

Quoting 213. sar2401:

The picture is at least two years old, probably older. It's of a saltwater crocodile in Australia. There are tons of fake flood pictures showing up on FB and twitter. If you're using Chrome, anyone can right click on a picture and choose "Search Google for this picture". It will usually show a fake pretty easily. Once pictures get on more respected sites like this, they spread even faster, so it would be good if we took the time to check pictures before posting them.




Couldn't tell if that was a croc or gator. Heavy rains do usually send gators to the beach, whereas salinity changes forces them up river.
Sar2401 is right..the picture is fake..and I should have checked before posting..

thanks for letting me know..

lets also remember to not assume deflamatory statements are true on this "respected" site like stating a image from the bahamas is a junkyard or curfews are given because people will automatically loot..

Its pouring here by the way..looks like the heavy band hasnt broken apart as some were stating..



NOAA (NWS) updated precip forecast from 2pm today-2am Tuesday:

Summerville, SC- 3-4" of additional rain.

Since this event is expected to end tomorrow morning, that means this rain would fall tonight/early am tomorrow.
It's not over yet.
US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1 min ·

IMPORTANT - Civil Emergency Message from NC Emergency Management of Brunswick, Columbus, and New Hanover counties. ‪#‎SEFlood‬ @[_e8679nkhx:‪#‎ncwx‬]
Quoting 224. SC29483:


Very good to know. Use FF, but will use chrome before posting pics that are unknown source.
Good deal. It's easy and fast with Chrome, and maybe we can at least stop fake pictures from spreading off here. This site seems to be optimized for Chrome, so you might find it works somewhat better with Chrome as well.
Quoting 227. ncstorm:

Sar2401 is right..the picture is fake..and I should have checked before posting..

thanks for letting me know..

lets also remember to not assume deflamatory statements are true on this "respected" site like stating a image from the bahamas is a junkyard or curfews are given because people will automatically loot..

Its pouring here by the way..looks like the heavy band hasnt broken apart as some were stating..







Picture may be fake, but it depicts a very real danger
referring to alligator pic
Quoting 221. PedleyCA:


Thanks for the Earth cam one, that one works for me, none of the Port Cams seem to work here.


I'm guessing that you have Adblocks enabled.
K8eCane: check out surfchex.com. Web cam for Wrightsville along with other beaches up and down our coast. Water is rough and only an hour or so out of high tide..
Quoting 226. win1gamegiantsplease:


Couldn't tell if that was a croc or gator. Heavy rains do usually send gators to the beach, whereas salinity changes forces them up river.
That pointy nose kind of gives it away, and the eucalyptus trees in the background are certainly not indicative of SC. I'd sure like to find one of the people shopping these pictures and posting them. An interview with Mr. Pepper Spray would probably help them decide to find a new hobby. :-)
Quoting 233. Tigerosee:

K8eCane: check out surfchex.com. Web cam for Wrightsville along with other beaches up and down our coast. Water is rough and only an hour or so out of high tide..


THANKS!!
Quoting 231. K8eCane:




Picture may be fake, but it depicts a very real danger
referring to alligator pic
We get gators wandering around town from time to time here. I haven't been here for a flood (yet), but I imagine there would be a bunch of them in town if the water level was high enough they could grab some floating trash cans . They love trash cans.
Quoting 237. sar2401:

We get gators wandering around town from time to time here. I haven't been here for a flood (yet), but I imagine there would be a bunch of them in town if the water level was high enough they could grab some floating trash cans . They love trash cans.


Bet they love a people arm or leg too
Quoting 210. mfcmom:

Have some friends with many adopted children in Swansea South Carolina, can't reach them? It is South of Columbia County. Anyone here know if the deluge went that far south? Thanks in advance.

My son-in-law is a football coach and teacher at Swansea High. Yes, the inundation DEFINITELY reached Swansea, which is more "Midlands" than "South" South Carolina. The town is flooded and the school is damaged. I don't know the extent or water level, but he says even a "normal" heavy rain can cause water leakage into the cafeteria there. I have personally driven through Swansea a number of times and it is quite a low-lying area and I am not surprised that it is in trouble.

He thinks they may not be back into school for as much as 2 weeks. Can't help with any other specifics.
Quoting 221. PedleyCA:


Thanks for the Earth cam one, that one works for me, none of the Port Cams seem to work here.
Ad Block was definitely the problem for me, Ped. Changing it not to run on the Port pages solved it.
Re: post #202 and Dr. Forbes.... Wrapping around? Can someone explain. Thx. No TV.
Is Hurricane Hunter flying over Joaquin right now?????
Quoting 239. GreyJewel:


My son-in-law is a football coach and teacher at Swansea High. The town is flooded and the school is damaged. I don't know the extent or water level, but he says even a heavy rain can cause water leakage into the cafeteria there. I have personally driven through Swansea a number of times and it is quite a low-lying area and I am not surprised that it is in trouble.

He thinks they may not be back into school for as much as 2 weeks. Can't help with any other specifics.


Prayers for them....this is rain coming down in buckets here in ILM
Quoting 239. GreyJewel:


My son-in-law is a football coach and teacher at Swansea High. The town is flooded and the school is damaged. I don't know the extent or water level, but he says even a heavy rain can cause water leakage into the cafeteria there. I have personally driven through Swansea a number of times and it is quite a low-lying area and I am not surprised that it is in trouble.

He thinks they may not be back into school for as much as 2 weeks. Can't help with any other specifics.
Thank you I will keep trying to reach them. Most of her adopted kids are handicapped. I appreciate your help. Want to reach her in case we need to drive up there and rescue the family. I also have seven adopted who are special needs and it's not easy.
Quoting 242. pablosyn:

Is Hurricane Hunter flying over Joaquin right now?????



too save time too that ?

Link


hit the link and you would no the ander too that ? is sacs
Quoting 238. K8eCane:



Bet they love a people arm or leg too
I watched one of the guys they have on call to remove these things in operation once. He had another guy stand a safe distance away from the gator to attract his attention, jumped on the thing from the back, grabbed his jaws, and duct taped them closed. Took about five seconds. I guess he knew what he was doing, but you couldn't get me to jump on an alligator for a million bucks.
this is the same kind of flooding we saw back in the spring time in OK KS and parts of TX now we are seeing it in NC and SC


i this hop CA is next
Quoting 246. sar2401:

I watched one of the guys they have on call to remove these things in operation once. He had another guy stand a safe distance away from the gator to attract his attention, jumped on the thing from the back, grabbed his jaws, and duct taped them closed. Took about five seconds. I guess he knew what he was doing, but you couldn't get me to jump on an alligator for a million bucks.


Enormous pounds of pressure in their jaws...im not going to bronco an alligator no time soon either
cking in.... got a little water in our laundry room (it sits a couple inches lower than our dining room... still lots of water all over... went around to ck my hubby's job sites since church was cancelled... the amount of water is not fathomable even though I saw it with my own eyes.... this is just ridiculous...and now... they said that what moved north...will come back south over night before it finally ends...
i hop all you guys in SC and NC in the flood zone are safe i all so hop that you have a boat tide up so if you needed too get out or if you find your no longer safe in your home you can leave if you dont have a boat i hop you have lifejackets close buy in case you need them that way if the water starts going up higher or faster you can put them on and swim too safyed
Quoting 244. mfcmom:

Thank you I will keep trying to reach them. Most of her adopted kids are handicapped. I appreciate your help. Want to reach her in case we need to drive up there and rescue the family. I also have seven adopted who are special needs and it's not easy.
You probably don't want to drive up there and attempt to rescue them. According to the Swansea town web site, they do have a police department, which is kind of surprising for a place with only 827 people. You could give them a call on their non-emergency line, explain the situation, and ask for a welfare check. Given it's such a small town, they may have already checked on them and can give you some information.

EDIT: Forgot the phone number. It looks like 803-785-2521 gets you to dispatch, and it's their non-emergency and after hours line.
Quoting 220. TylerStanfield:


Hurricane Igor 2010 also had winds of 155 Mph, and a lower pressure of 924MB. But Joaquin was still an impressive hurricane nonetheless.

Igor wasn't in October. :)
Quoting 201. DurhamWeatherLover:



I wish it could just stop. My area (Raleigh/Durham) didn't get as much as expected.
Is this caused by climate change,all this rain?
According to French news the death toll of the storms in southeastern France yesterday evening is now at 17 with four more missing :-(


Source: Le Figaro. On the right side of this graphic: amounts of rain up to 195mm = 7,7 inches in a short time.


Aerial view today of the remnants of the flooding.

Quoting 251. sar2401:

You probably don't want to drive up there and attempt to rescue them. According to the Swansea town web site, they do have a police department, which is kind of surprising for a place with only 827 people. You could give them a call on their non-emergency line, explain the situation, and ask for a welfare check. Given it's such a small town, they may have already checked on them and can give you some information.


you wont get there...call the red cross or FD there...they can give you more information...
WHAT? O-O



Major Hurricane Kate? LOL
Quoting 253. victoria780:

Is this caused by climate change,all this rain?



whats not start with the climate change stuff
Quoting 251. sar2401:

You probably don't want to drive up there and attempt to rescue them. According to the Swansea town web site, they do have a police department, which is kind of surprising for a place with only 827 people. You could give them a call on their non-emergency line, explain the situation, and ask for a welfare check. Given it's such a small town, they may have already checked on them and can give you some information.

EDIT: Forgot the phone number. It looks like 803-785-2521 gets you to dispatch, and it's their non-emergency and after hours line.
Great help thank you. I will do that first, I know they live out in the country a little bit. Appreciate you all.
Quoting 252. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Igor wasn't in October. :)




hows the flooding in your area?
Quoting 225. sar2401:

As usual, nothing happening in SE Alabama. Overcast, and it looks like it should rain but, other than a few spits of drizzle, nothing. 68 degrees with a breezy north wind. I kind of hate even talking about a lack of rain with what's going on in SC, but BMX gave me a 40% chance of showers today (not happening), a 20% chance tonight (not happening), and then sunny and warmer for the rest of the week.



Yeah that must be annoying, we even got 0.68 on Friday along with some thunder and the rain was widespread even though the forecast was only 20-30 chance of light showers with less than 0.05 was expected.

My parents said they've managed to get 0.71 so far from the passing low topped showers and even a thunderstorm. It's amazing how strong dynamics can force convection and decent rainfall amounts in a dry air mass that would normally struggle to produce any clouds.
Quoting 249. tiggeriffic:

cking in.... got a little water in our laundry room (it sits a couple inches lower than our dining room... still lots of water all over... went around to ck my hubby's job sites since church was cancelled... the amount of water is not fathomable even though I saw it with my own eyes.... this is just ridiculous...and now... they said that what moved north...will come back south over night before it finally ends...
You know it's bad when they cancel church in the South. :-) Unfortunately, the models do want to bring the rain back south later today and tomorrow morning. The only "good" news is that Charleston appears to be on the south edge of the heaviest predicted rainfall. I'm looking at that map thinking that 2-3" here would be a big deal. Hard to imagine that's coming on top of 10" to 20" that's already fallen.

Quoting 256. pablosyn:

WHAT? O-O



Major Hurricane Kate? LOL


I like the one that brings it from like 4kts to Cat 3 strength in the course of a day
NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 7m7 minutes ago

3:00 PM - Johnny Mercer Pier at Wrightsville Beach, NC: 61 mph wind gust. #SEFlood #ncwx #scwx
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
One in a thousand year event unfolding for South Carolina. Multiple billion dollar disaster with many in dire need now and clean up will take a very long time. Can't imagine this moving back South. Emergency management going to be busy for some time. God speed South Carolinians.
Somebody I stranded in the live cam of brett adair.......
tvnweater.com/live/chasers/847783521
Quoting 260. Jedkins01:




Yeah that must be annoying, we even got 0.68 on Friday along with some thunder and the rain was widespread even though the forecast was only 20-30 chance of light showers with less than 0.05 was expected.

My parents said they've managed to get 0.71 so far from the passing low topped showers and even a thunderstorm. It's amazing how strong dynamics can force convection and decent rainfall amounts in a dry air mass that would normally struggle to produce any clouds.
This system is a good example of how the water vapor loop can be misleading, as you've said many times in the past. You'd think I should have massive dewpoint depression looking at all the dry air, but the dry air is all up in the mid-levels. At the surface, it's actually quite humid. With a temperature of 69, the dewpoint is still 67, giving me 91% humidity. It's been that way with this whole event. Why I have no rain is beyond me. The barometer is up from 1004 mb to 1006, so the ULL is apparently finally moving NE and away from me. With the exception of a few small pop up showers, the radar shows all of south and central AL rain free.

268. IDTH
Quoting 256. pablosyn:

WHAT? O-O



Major Hurricane Kate? LOL

Like we need another one of those.
Anyone know what is going on in Wilmington, NC? Daughter at UNC. Have been worried sick since last Thursday. Appreciate any radar or info please. UNC is closed tomorrow as I talk with her this evening. Kids just never have the seriousness of a storm when they are 19. I remember those days.... but, NEVER LIKE THIS