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Landmark climate change report coming Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on January 31, 2007

Every six years, the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases a massive and influential study detailing the state of Earth's climate. This Friday marks the release of the first IPCC report since 2001. To help preview this blockbuster study, I've asked climate expert Dr. Richard Rood to help out. Dr. Rood is a climate modeler and professor of Meteorology at the University of Michigan, and has authored nearly 100 scientific papers on climate change and meteorology. After today's guest appearance on my blog, Dr. Rood will be contributing a series of blogs on climate change that will appear in a new featured "Climate Change" blog. Take it away, ricky!

What is the IPCC?

On February 2, 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is scheduled to release the first of a series of reports that describe the current state of the Earth's climate, how it has changed, and how it is expected to change in the future. "Climate Change 2007" will be definitive and influential. Climate change touches every aspect of society, and there is already controversy associated with the release. This is the first of a series of blogs about climate and climate change; it discusses the process of development of these official assessments.

First, the IPCC is not a research organization, but relies upon research performed and reported by scientists from all over the world. This underlying research is based on observations and the development of testable propositions to determine cause and effect in the behavior of the observations. Sometimes the propositions can be tested with experiments, but more often climate scientists use models to predict the behavior of the observations. Therefore, like weather forecasting, the success or failure of model predictions reveal our level of understanding.

Part of the scientific process is the ability of independent researchers to investigate the observations and extract information. If their conclusions converge, then the independent nature of the investigations adds accountability to the process. That is, there are checks and balances which constantly challenge, check, and re-check the conclusions of individual scientists. The IPCC assesses this body of scientific literature; it is not just the research of the United States; it is the research of the world. It is research hardened by the competition of ideas and honed by the survival of the successful ideas.

The scientists who write the IPCC reports use exquisite rigor. The reports are written by experts drawn from around the world, selected to assure the representation of the members of the United Nations. Draft reports are then reviewed by experts who were not authors of the report. Then there is review by government officials involved in policy making. All told, there are more than 1000 contributing authors, and more than 2000 independent reviewers. All comments are considered in the revisions that lead to the production of the final document. The time commitment is enormous, and the result is a document which is based on the facts of observation and predictions which have been scrutinized to the highest level possible.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program. Their home page is at http://www.ipcc.ch/.

ricky

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Some damage reports are coming in from central Florida - There is a REAL bad spot moving towards Salt Springs. Near SR 19.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1250 AM UNTIL 600 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
OCALA FLORIDA TO 50 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 14. WATCH NUMBER 14 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1250
AM EST.

DISCUSSION...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUPPORT STORMS OVER NERN GULF WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THEY MOVE INLAND ACROSS FL VICINITY E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.


<
Deland, Fl:The DCF building in Woodland Plaza has damage and the One Stop Career Center and other agencies in that plaza are closed today as workers are not able to get into the police blocked area. A large section lost all homes. At least 4 lives lost attributed to the storm. Only a few school closures however School boards are allowing excused absenses for those not wishing to take thier children in to schools in the areas where there are trees and power lines down. I -4 has been shut since about 3 am this morning after several trucks were hit by a tornado. The west bound side is still closed.
506. RL3AO
Too bad about the tornado in Florida. Are these the first fatalities of the season?



Also, an interesting article about the report coming out today. Take it for what its worth.
Link
Posted By: SkulDouggery at 11:26 PM EST on February 01, 2007.

So what are we to do now? GW is manmade but we can't reverse it for centuries?


The choice is stark. We may either

1) Throw up our hands and accept this reality as inevitable, and prepare to cope with the consequences as best we may; or

2) Develop a credible geoengineering scheme to help us negotiate the next few centuries.
This is bad news for Florida only Feb 2nd and people are already dieing due to weather!
509. Johny
The cause and solution to global warming is so obviously to reduce population levels that I am always surprised it is never mentioned.

No one benifits from over-population except the rich at the top of the food-chain, and any practical economic system can easily run at even keel as well. The problems are not just global warming, it is the destruction of nearly everything that makes this planet attractive. In the East, where I live, I can drive a hundred miles in any direction, and not find a single place of solitude that is unravaged by man. You name it: global warming, air polution, water polution, habitate loss, wildlife loss, obnoxious noise everywhere including jet planes in the most remote areas, too many roads and cars, rules and more rules, light polution, private property, and over regulated national parks due to millions of visitors trying to escape the hell they created. What is left, where a man can go to be free. That is why I say that global warming is only the tip of the iceburg, and the methods to solve it as a single entity will fail. The rest of the iceburg will just roll over and the tip remains - get the analogy.
Wunderground bloggers are my new source for weather information!! At least a dozen or more media weather sources rattled in my ears or before my eyes yesterday, until about 1:00AM this morning, and the only mention of the potential severity of these storms in Florida came from some of you guys.
Good morning everyone. My heart goes out to the people in florida that had the bad tornadoes last night. Spring is coming early. Yahoooooo.
johny - you must be having one heck of bad day. lighten up, my friend.
513. Johny
I am having a good day, real good, it's Friday, but the comments stand irrespective of my emotional/mental health.
CIMSS MIMIC "DORA" 90Knts peak Vmax Link
Tornado warning in Indian River County. Tornado hit in Grant and Fellsmere 10:10am EST
modified to show time of latest tornado touchdown in Florida It's not over yet guys and new count is 14 dead and still a large demolished trailer park to account for and the storms still touching down now.
Johnny...When it boils down to it there are just too many people. What are we supposed to do about that? Put child restrictions like China?
CycloneBuster had a question on where to find temperatures for Greenland.

I have a weather page at http://weather.jorick.us/weather.php where you can get that information.

When you get to the page, look on the left side where the list of states are. Scroll down to the Canadian section and click on CANADA. Then scroll down to the Temperatures section. You'll be able to see the forcasted highs and lows for Greenland for the next 3 days on the top of each of the maps. A scale is shown at the bottom of the section.

If you want to see the temperatures for the top part of Greenland (because the top part is cut off on the national map), go to the left side and click on Nunavut. Now most of the top of Greenland can be seen in the Temperature section.

=====

For everyone else, the page just mentioned above puts a lot of Accuweather's maps in one place without you having to rummage around Accuweather trying to find what you want. You can see any state or province with one mouse click. You can select small or large maps, still or animated. If you're in the USA, you can enter your zip code and get a small box at the top of the page showing you the forecast for the next 3 days.

Maps include:
Radar...both US and your state
Satellite...both US and your state
Surface...today, tomorrow, and day after
Temperatures...highs and lows for next 3 days
Precipitation...rain and snow next 24 hours
Severe weather...both US and your state
Solar weather from NOAA including auroras
Tropical weather for certain states

Bookmark this page today!

Note: This is not an advertisement. I receive NO money for posting this page or advertising it. THERE ARE NO ADVERTISEMENTS OR POPUP WINDOWS ON THE PAGE and there never will be!

I wrote the page for my own use and found that others were interested in it so I made it available to all. If you like the page, let me know. If you have a suggestion, email me and I'll put it in if possible.
I should have mentioned that I'm going to include the UK/Ireland maps soon.
Drat! Forgot to mention that the page automatically updates every 10 minutes.
Jorick...Just a question. Do you have permission to use those accuweather maps? Thier material is not public use, so you could face trouble if they dont like you linking thier maps.
CB should take note, that's how you post a short summery of a story and link it.
Orlando Sentinel

Photo gallery: Today's storm damage

Its really bad in some places - they are still searching for survivors.
526. Johny
HM, I didn't propose a solution. In the Engineering field, we identify the entire problem first before trying to solve anything individually - otherwise you get no where fast. However, I am certainly not about rejecting viable solutions due to the political correctness of the day. All things have to yield to bring the often limited number of possible solutions into reality. Man can learn great lessons from nature, survival is only one thing - adaptability.
Anyone heard from Randrewl or Thuderstorm2 since last night ??????????
pottery you find Randrewl on his blog i talk to him today
Thanks Taz. Storm2 is in Orlando. They had tornados last night ?
Johny...I understand where you're coming from - Im currently a undergrad studying engineering - and sorry if I sounded like I was putting words in your mouth. However, I think that the entire problem is that we have too many people. Too many people to provide energy, too many people to feed and provide clean water, too many people to provide a good quality of living while maintaining the health of the planet. I'm sure there are many ways to bandage the problem, we're coming up with ways all the time, but this all because we are trying to find ways to support a higher population/living quality then naturally possible.
Good Afternoon Everyone
Hi there Storm2. Did we get Mother Nature vexed lastnight, ?. Hope all is well with you and yours
Its some mess on I-4
Mother Nature was p***ed at me cause i got battered by storms last night
Myles.....I am in agreement with you. The humanitarian act of providing food for people who live in areas where agriculture can no longer sustain life ( for whatever reason )is naturally futile. Populations come and go. We need to accept this. Its hard if you are one of the affected, but populations in areas that are infertile need to die out. Keeping life going ( just barely ) is also bad for the collective gene pool. I expect some serious flak here, but.............
Thanks Taz. Storm2 is in Orlando. They had tornados last night ?

Well yes i had one Tornado pass me in the countryside when i was driving around i would say it was around F1
You were driving around in tornado weather. WHY ????
Unedited Helo Aerials from Fla Tornadoes...From LinkMisterperfects post..
Well i was on my way home and the tornado formed so quickly.
cool;that's all I have to say about seeing a tornado up close.LOL
glad you're alright.I'll be back later.
OK. Lucky you........
I'm out as well, till later...........
When all the storms passed i went out and the place was like a battlefield,it was unreal
HURRICANE23:If ya here YOU GOT MAIL!!!!!!
Hi Catastrophe
Posted By: pottery at 05:10 PM GMT del 02 febbraio 2007.

..."The humanitarian act of providing food for people who live in areas where agriculture can no longer sustain life ( for whatever reason )is naturally futile. Populations come and go. We need to accept this. Its hard if you are one of the affected, but populations in areas that are infertile need to die out. Keeping life going ( just barely ) is also bad for the collective gene pool. I expect some serious flak here, but............."

No flak. I just hope you get sick and die and stop breathing my oxygen.

Comes around, goes around, eh?. Kinda takes the humanity out of being human. So much for nobility, or grace or courage or anything else living for.
Why the heck is this blog up?