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Lackadaisical TS Karl May Strengthen; Paine in the Pacific; Malakas Hits Japan

By: Bob Henson 4:43 PM GMT on September 19, 2016

The Northern Hemisphere tropics remain quite active during this final week of astronomical summer: we have a new hurricane in the East Pacific heading toward Mexico, plus a major typhoon in the Northwest Pacific plowing into western Japan. Meanwhile, hurricane watchers in the U.S. and Caribbean are casting their eyes toward Tropical Storm Karl, which has the potential to become a significant hurricane--though likely one that’ll remain a safe distance from land.

Now in its third day as a tropical storm, Karl is in no hurry to strengthen. Karl’s top sustained winds were estimated at a minimal 40 mph in the 11 am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Located in the central tropical Atlantic, about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands, Karl continues to track almost due west at 13 mph. As was the case through the weekend, Karl’s low-level circulation was largely exposed on Monday morning, with most showers and thunderstorms (convection) swept to the northeast of the center. Vertical wind shear is fairly modest, at 10-15 knots, but that shear combined with a quite-dry middle atmosphere (relative humidity of 45-50%) has been enough to keep convection from gathering around Karl’s center.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Karl as of 1515Z (11:15 am EDT) Monday, September 19, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Outlook for Karl
Karl is likely to start flexing its muscles later this week. Sea surface temperatures along Karl’s path will be rising from around 28°C (82°F) on Monday to 29-30°C (84-86°F) by midweek, and the mid-level humidity will rise to around 60-65%, according to output from the 12Z Monday run of the SHIPS statistical model. Wind shear will drop to below 10 knots, giving Karl another big boost. The official NHC outlook brings Karl to hurricane strength by Friday. Models suggest that the bulk of this intensification may not occur until late in the week, despite the favorable conditions soon to evolve.

The upper-level pattern across North America and the North Atlantic will become more amplified late this week, with strong upper-level lows in the western U.S. and north-central Atlantic and ridges in the central U.S. and eastern Atlantic. Karl’s path should begin gradually angling west-northwest this week, enough to avoid the Caribbean, and models suggest that the North Atlantic low will extend far enough south late this week to pull Karl sharply northeastward by the time the storm gets to around 65°W to 70°W longitude. Less than 10% of the 50 European ensemble runs from 00Z Monday bring Karl far enough west to affect the U.S. All 20 GFS ensemble members from 00Z Monday keep Karl well to the east of the States, as does the 00Z Monday run of the UKMET model. These track results have been quite consistent over the last couple of days, which lends added support to the idea that Karl is unlikely to pose a U.S. threat.

Karl could easily affect Bermuda, depending on how sharply it recurves. If this year’s tendency holds, Karl could achieve its maximum strength at a fairly high latitude, around 30-35°N, another reason for Bermuda to pay close attention to Karl.


Figure 2. Tracks from the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble run (GEFS) from 06Z Monday, September 19, 2016, updated with data from 12Z Monday. Ensemble runs are produced by introducing small variations in the starting-point conditions to mimic uncertainty about the state of the atmosphere.

Adios, Julia
After five days, the National Hurricane Center has pulled the plug on irritating Tropical Storm Julia. NHC discontinued advisories on Julia on Sunday night, classifying the storm as a remnant low. Julia’s biggest impact may be posthumous: some of its moisture is now being pulled into a weak upper-level low and associated front over the Mid-Atlantic coast. Rainfall amounts of 2” - 4” will be widespread from eastern North Carolina to southeast Massachusetts, with higher localized amounts, especially toward the NC Outer Banks.


Figure 3. Enhanced infrared image of Invest 96L as of 1445Z (10:45 am EDT) Monday, September 19, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Strong tropical wave may develop in eastern Atlantic
The next solid chance at a named storm in the Atlantic is Invest 96L, located a couple hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This wave has much more convection than Karl, and data from the ASCAT scatterometer suggests that a weak closed circulation has already formed. 96L’s thunderstorms are being nourished by a moist middle atmosphere (relative humidity around 65%). Wind shear will be fairly light (5 - 15 knots) for the next couple of days, and SSTs of 28-29°C are more than adequate for development. In its 8 am EDT Monday tropical weather outlook, NHC gives 96L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday and an 80% chance by Saturday. It’s quite possible that 96L will be Tropical Storm Lisa by midweek, if not sooner, but hurricane status may not be in the cards. The SHIPS model shows wind shear ramping into the 25 - 35 mph range by late this week as 96L heads northwest over progressively cooler waters. GFS and Euro ensembles indicate that the most likely outcome is for 96L to peak at tropical storm strength. We can expect 96L to remain far from any threat to land.


Figure 4. Infrared image from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite of Typhoon Malakas as of 1520Z (11:20 am EDT) Monday, September 19, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB/Colorado State University.

Major Typhoon Malakas heads into Japan
Significant impacts are likely as Typhoon Malakas grinds its way northeastward along the south coast of Japan’s main islands. Malakas passed through Japan’s far-flung Yaeyama Islands as a Category 4 typhoon over the weekend: the eye passed directly over the westernmost island, Yonaguni, where the Yonagunijima airport clocked wind gusts up to 100 mph. As of 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Monday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center rated Malakas as a minimal Category 3 storm, with top sustained (1-minute) winds of 115 mph. Malakas was slamming into the island of Kyushu early Tuesday local time. At 12:05 am JST Tuesday (11:05 am EDT Monday), Kanoya Air Field reported a wind gust to 106 mph, with surface air pressure down to 973 millibars.

Malakas will weaken dramatically as it continues northeast along the coast. By the time it passes near Tokyo early Wednesday, Malakas should be down to weak tropical storm strength. However, torrential rains of 5” - 10” and resultant landslides will be a major concern across large sections of southern Japan, including much of Honshu. According to weather.com, the city of Takanabe reported 4.33” of rain in just one hour on Monday night local time.


Figure 5. Radar image of Typhoon Malakas, centered on the south end of Japan’s Kyushu island as of 0115 JST Tuesday, September 20, 2016 (12:15 pm EDT Monday). Rainfall rates at lower right are shown in millimeters per hour: 80 mm = 3.15”. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Administration.


Figure 6. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Paine as of 1559Z (11:59 am EDT) Monday, September 19, 2016.

Tropical Storm Watch for Baja California as Hurricane Paine spins up
The 11th hurricane of the year in the East Pacific is a Paine--literally. Now located about 350 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Hurricane Paine has intensified rapidly, with top sustained winds rocketing from just 40 mph at 11 AM EDT Sunday to 85 mph as of the 11 am EDT Monday advisory from NHC. Paine is likely at its peak strength, as the hurricane will soon be moving northwest over cooler waters and encountering greater wind shear. By the time Paine heads into the northern coast of Baja California on Wednesday, it should be little more than a weak tropical storm or depression. Since Paine’s recurving path could bring tropical storm-force winds east of its center onto land, the Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin.

Some moisture from Paine (and a nearby upper low) will filter into the Southwest U.S. by midweek, although not as much as was delivered by Tropical Storm Newton several weeks ago. A few showers have already filtered into far Southern California, where any rainfall is welcome in the midst of a five-year-long drought.

For the years 1971-2009, the average number of hurricanes per year in the East Pacific was 8. Given that we’re now on #11 for 2016, this is a busy East Pacific season indeed! The record number of hurricanes in a single East Pacific season is 16, set in 1990, 1992, and 2014.

Bob Henson


Figure 8. Projected track for Hurricane Paine from the National Hurricane Center as of 15Z (11:00 am EDT) Monday, September 19, 2016.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update, Mr Henson
Thanks!
typo?

"It’s quite possible that 96L will be Tropical Storm Lisa by midweek, if not sooner, but hurricane status may not be in the cards. The SHIPS model shows wind shear ramping into the 25 - 35 mph range by late this week as Karl [future Lisa] heads northwest over progressively cooler waters."
The killer hurricane of 1947: See historical photos

By Andrew Boyd, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on September 19, 2016 at 9:00 AM, updated September 19, 2016 at 9:02 AM


Hurricanes didn't start getting names in the United States until 1953, so the big storm of 1947 doesn't have an iconic name to recall. At one point a Category 5 storm, it killed at least 51 people on its path through the Bahamas, Florida, New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

By the time it roared into the New Orleans area on September 19, 1947, it was a Category 1 or 2 storm, depending upon which account you read, with winds of around 100 miles an hour. The biggest local damage was in Metairie where backwash from Lake Pontchartrain overtopped levees, took out the Bucktown bridge and dumped floodwaters as deep as seven feet from the lake to Metairie Road. Some of that water took weeks to drain out, affecting about 5,000 homes. The hurricane killed 31 people in the metro area and caused about $110 million in damage.

Here are some photos from our archives that show the aftermath of the storm.
Well I'm not any better at my hobby than last season. What i thought was the remnants of Julia was not. It seems like I have been tracking the wrong swirl....this whole time.


.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Monday...Radar loops show the center of the remnant
of Julia is just south of Cape Fear and still drifting steadily
north. Guidance has this feature moving ashore shortly. Winds
still not expected to be a problem as center of low is opening up
and loosening. Offshore winds are only in the 10 to 15 kt range,
with about 10 kts at 41013. Seas remain in the 4 to 5 ft range.
Previous discussion from early this morning follows:
Quoting 3. bwi:

typo?

"It’s quite possible that 96L will be Tropical Storm Lisa by midweek, if not sooner, but hurricane status may not be in the cards. The SHIPS model shows wind shear ramping into the 25 - 35 mph range by late this week as Karl [future Lisa] heads northwest over progressively cooler waters."


Good catch--thanks! Fixed.
Isolated tornadoes through through SE/SC Wisconsin, NW Illinois, and NE/Central Iowa possible. May be similar to Indiana tornadoes of a few weeks ago. Updrafts are very strong with daytime heating approaching 80, with dew points already hovering around 65. 5-12 tornadoes not out of the question through today.
Quoting 3. bwi:

typo?

"It’s quite possible that 96L will be Tropical Storm Lisa by midweek, if not sooner, but hurricane status may not be in the cards. The SHIPS model shows wind shear ramping into the 25 - 35 mph range by late this week as Karl [future Lisa] heads northwest over progressively cooler waters."


Sounds American to me.
Latest GFS ensembles tightly clustered in 5 days. The threat to the U.S. Is greatly decreasing thankfully but Karl is most likely going to affect Bermuda in some way.

Karl putting meat on his bones:





Nice convective burst over the center. Or should I say the center moved under the convective burst?
When no cloud cover, updrafts are clear as flags are going straight up in the air. When cloud cover, calm. Here in SC Wisconsin, waiting to see if I'm on the good or bad side of where possible isolated super-cells fire. Winds close to 20 currently. Were at least, cloud cover has moved in and I'm topping out at 80 degrees with a dew point of 65. Humidity around same as dew point. No high cloud tops to speak of. Beautiful day.
Heads up Bermuda. Looks like an increasing likelihood of Karl affecting you in some way. 96L looks poised to become the next named storm of the season, which would be Lisa. As it currently stands: 11 TS, 4 H, and 1 M.

Thanks, Bob! I especially appreciate that word of the title in my basket of useful new English vobabulary :-)

Edit: "Lackadaisical" - how the word developed: Link
Thanks for the update!
Here comes TD 13/Lisa. Will be the 12th named storm which is the average number for Hurricane season

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located well east of the Leeward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization, and it appears that a
tropical depression could be forming. If this trend continues,
then advisories could be initiated on this system later today or
tonight. Occasional heavy rains and gusty winds associated with
this system should diminish later today over the Cabo Verde Islands
while the low moves westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Berg/Petersen/Chenard
The WU blogs are like that old car that has more downs than up.
Quoting Bob Henson:
...this final week of summer...
I take it you are speaking of "astronomical" summer, because in meteorology, this is the third week of autumn, which began on September 1.



No Showers here. Thanks for the updates though Mr. Henson....
12z Euro through 72 hours.

Tornado structure to convection evident. Tops building with base and rotation. Watch likely soon IMO. Looking at my conditions in SC Wisconsin, I'd say some people are in for a "Oh my what just happened moment". May we all be safe. Two to three thirty range here, could get dicey. Some low wispy clouds with funnel shape formed and quickly vanished within a couple minutes time.
You guys crack me up, I remember last night you all were saying Karl was dissipating
https://weather.com/storms/tornado-central
I don't see any Tornado watch's on the map
Quoting 16. washingtonian115:

The WU blogs are like that old car that has more downs than up.


I had two cars (only own two cars) break down on the same day (yesterday). I mean talk about bad luck or whatever you want to call it.
Luckily, car number one needed a new alternator. Car number two just needs a new battery. So I got off easy. But what are the odds that both cars die on the same day?

And yes, it reminds me of the blog. Every time I come here it's a roll of the dice whether the blog will work or not.

Hot and humid with scattered T storms here in S.W. Florida. Feels like a typical summer rainy season day here.
Quoting 17. Xulonn:

I take it you are speaking of "astronomical" summer, because in meteorology, this is the third week of autumn, which began on September 1.

(annoying gif)

I think that might be the most annoying gif I have ever seen. Please never post it again.
long range model forecast are hinting of a tropical storm east of the lesser antilles towards the end of the month The EURO especially and to a lesser extent the GfS are hinting of that scenario.
Thanks for the Update; quite possible that Karl might impact or get close to Bermuda down stream and will note that the trof and frontal pattern over Conus is starting to move towards typical Fall patterns (including the steering that will sweep Karl away from Conus)....................Point being that I think that the "long-track" to the US part of the Cape Verde season is over for this year.

Time to start looking at home grown frontal remnants over the next two months and whatever might be able to spin up in the Gulf or Western Caribbean after this current African wave clears the basin after Karl IMHO.






Quoting 16. washingtonian115:

The WU blogs are like that old car that has more downs than up.


The WU blogs are like that oasis for those who care about truth in climate change and the love of tropical storms and severe weather.
Wow. It must have rained in excess of 3 inches this past hour in Port St.Lucie/Fort Pierce.
Quoting 27. DeepSeaRising:



The WU blogs are like that oasis for those who care about truth in climate change and the love of tropical storms and severe weather.
It has been breaking down a lot lately.
A weak surface low may be trying to form south of Bermuda, then there is Karl trying to get his act together slowly and 96L coming into view which should be TD 13/Lisa tonight.

Good Afternoon! Long time lurker here. I understand about 1/100th of what is written on this blog, but I really enjoy reading the entries and feel like I gain a little knowledge every day. Especially appreciate the links that help beginners like me. I'm sure my first questions will be incredibly stupid, so bear with me.
looked like i found


AL, 13, 2016091918, , BEST, 0, 135N, 283W, 30, 1007, TD
Quoting 28. rmbjoe1954:

Wow. It must have rained in excess of 3 inches this past hour in Port St.Lucie/Fort Pierce.


Agree - I work in Fort Pierce and the rain is torrential!
Quoting 3. bwi:

typo?

"It’s quite possible that 96L will be Tropical Storm Lisa by midweek, if not sooner, but hurricane status may not be in the cards. The SHIPS model shows wind shear ramping into the 25 - 35 mph range by late this week as Karl [future Lisa] heads northwest over progressively cooler waters."


Wow, that *is* progressive!
35. SLU
Tropical Depression THIRTEEN
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 19, 2016:

Location: 13.5°N 28.3°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 260 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
I have a feeling after the pattern change for the final week of September, a disturbance will spin up on the tale end of a front in the Western Carribean. This area could become a hurricane and either take a track simular to Hermine or head towards the Bahama's then OTS ahead of a strong cold front! I'm ready for the cool air. Good ridens Summer!!!
Nothing showing up much on Euro or any other model yet but I believe there is potential in central Caribbean or Southeast Coast in the next 10 days, which is where we should be watching as we enter this time of year. TCHP is still very warm covering a large area which is concerning if all other factors come together. End of September into October has been the time where the most powerful storms of the season have formed in the last couple years.
Quoting 36. weatherbro:

I have a feeling after the pattern change for the final week of September, a disturbance will spin up on the tale end of a front in the Western Carribean. This area could become a hurricane and either take a track simular to Hermine or head towards the Bahama's then OTS ahead of a strong cold front! I'm ready for the cool air. Good ridens Summer!!!
Been awhile since we have had an October hurricane hit Florida. Question for the blog when was the last time that happen? This one is easy.
Quoting 31. OBXLurker:

Good Afternoon! Long time lurker here. I understand about 1/100th of what is written on this blog, but I really enjoy reading the entries and feel like I gain a little knowledge every day. Especially appreciate the links that help beginners like me. I'm sure my first questions will be incredibly stupid, so bear with me.


Glad you are enjoying the blog, there is so many ways to share and discuss topics about the weather here. I joined a little while back also and was a lurker for a couple years but weather has been my thing since I was a kid. This really is a place of great people with great knowledge and understanding about the weather that can help you with any questions you may have. Welcome to the blog :)

The name list for the 2016/2017 storm season in the UK is out:



Some interesting names, can't wait for the first storm of the season to form. *_*
Quoting 30. WeatherkidJoe2323:

A weak surface low may be trying to form south of Bermuda, then there is Karl trying to get his act together slowly and 96L coming into view which should be TD 13/Lisa tonight.


.
When I look at this rainbow loop, sometimes I wonder if Karl won't be able to get tugged to the North after all. Seems the tail end of the thunderstorms from the low developing by Bermuda could care less to move North, looks like they want to move west? I guess I am one of those believe when I see it guys.
Nice spin on ex-96L/newly formed TD 13; now have to see what the new model runs show later this evening now that they can initiate an actual storm:




And another Blog server glitch even on a slow traffic day.....................Starting to get really ridiculous...................
Due to cloud cover, temps have lowered five degrees to 75, dew point remains steady at 65. Line of storm races in, going severe soon. Storms east of here have gone severe. Line coming through in the next two hours, all weather possible. Sun just came back out, temps to climb back towards eighty here just north of Madison, WI. Dew point approaching 67-68 by time line goes through.
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

It has been breaking down a lot lately.


Great washi ...look what you did, appears to be "hiccuping" again ... lol
I'm with you weatherbro, good riddance to summer.
Too hot here, ready for some fall like weather
Quoting 26. weathermanwannabe:
Thanks for the Update; quite possible that Karl might impact or get close to Bermuda down stream and will note that the trof and frontal pattern over Conus is starting to move towards typical Fall patterns (including the steering that will sweep Karl away from Conus)....................Point being that I think that the "long-track" to the US part of the Cape Verde season is over for this year.

Time to start looking at home grown frontal remnants over the next two months and whatever might be able to spin up in the Gulf or Western Caribbean after this current African wave clears the basin after Karl IMHO.






Think that your right, only possibility would be a really low rider that could make it all the way to around 70 west

Paine inching northward across the sharp SST gradient towards colder water off the west coast of Baja while part of the moisture field associated with it is pulled into the diffluent zone of an otherwise dry offshore midlevel low off the California coast. Radar showing returns offshore of SoCal moving NNW. Midlatitude westerlies, front, jet and a trough axis nearly stationary across Oregon with another midlevel low spinning up another diffluent zone further west.
I think it happened again, not only that but I have finally let my guard down on Karl.
Blog just hit molasses...again.
We just got hit by a strong thunderstorm here, was filming it from porch and we had a lightning strike so close I thought my ear drums were going to burst, I lost power from the strike as well. The lightning wasn't frequent but what we did have was very close and very loud.

The rainfall was very intense here, I picked up what looks like near 2 inches of rain in less than 20 minutes, torrential rain is the best way to word it. I'll have to measure it out later to get the exact amount. After 0.77 yesterday, we've had close to 3 inches in the past 24 hours. So it's been active around here lately.



Quoting 32. thetwilightzone:

looked like i found


AL, 13, 2016091918, , BEST, 0, 135N, 283W, 30, 1007, TD


That is old. It has been TD 13 for a few hours now
Nothing like a ex-system sitting there spinning on top of you and barely moving..so "annoying"

What was once Julia is located. Well, right over my house here in Wilmington NC. LOL. https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/US NC0938:1:US?animation=true&layer=radarConus&zoom=8
Next US mainland tropical cyclone threat from the Atlantic side likely to be from the BOC area. (If there is another threat this season).
Euro is showing the same low at 240. Warm water and this one would have an AC with it.


Quoting 52. Grothar:



That is old. It has been TD 13 for a few hours now


Oh snap! No you didn't. Everyone who knows knows Grothar gets it first.
'

Storms in Wisconsin racing 50-60 mph east. Possible dangerous situation as school releases.
Quoting 42. weathermanwannabe:

Nice spin on ex-96L/newly formed TD 13; now have to see what the new model runs show later this evening now that they can initiate an actual storm:







TD 13 looks too be way more S and going more W then what model runs where showing
Quoting 32. thetwilightzone:

looked like i found


AL, 13, 2016091918, , BEST, 0, 135N, 283W, 30, 1007, TD


Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after ....
Quoting 60. thetwilightzone:



TD 13 looks too be way more S and going more W then what model runs where showing


No matter what you are seeing, it gonna be a fish.
Quoting 55. MIKEYZ:

What was once Julia is located. Well, right over my house here in Wilmington NC. LOL. https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/US NC0938:1:US?animation=true&layer=radarConus&am p;zoom=8


I can verify that. I've been tracking it....but I tracked the wrong one for a while.
250hrs carib low? good chance there is going to be two of them. nature likes to come in pairs.
Quoting 39. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Glad you are enjoying the blog, there is so many ways to share and discuss topics about the weather here. I joined a little while back also and was a lurker for a couple years but weather has been my thing since I was a kid. This really is a place of great people with great knowledge and understanding about the weather that can help you with any questions you may have. Welcome to the blog :)



Thanks. Deciphering the models, graphics, satellite pictures and what they mean is the toughest thing for me.
Quoting 63. K8eCane:



I can verify that. I've been tracking it....but I tracked the wrong one for a while.


Just now starting to rain here in Ogden after an hour or more of Thunder and lightning. Was dumping at my house down in myrtle grove. Radar almost looks like the circulation is interacting with a frontal system or something. Flood advisory has been issued too.
Quoting 61. CaribBoy:



Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after ....


fish music





🌎🌊🎑

Quoting 40. Envoirment:

The name list for the 2016/2017 storm season in the UK is out:



Some interesting names, can't wait for the first storm of the season to form. *_*


I'd happily wait a year or two. Desmond was a catastrophe for Cumbria. Hundreds of people still not back in their homes 9 months later. We've never had to pump water to keep it from our homes for the last four years. Last winter we needed to on 9 occasions. I'd like a Siberian snap please. 1st December to 1st February.

...At least they resisted the temptation of throwing a dodgy weather pun in as a name this year ref. A-Big-Gale.
thanks for the update as always
looks like model runs are bending more W with TD 13

Significant weather advisory for 45 to 55 mph winds and small hail
for northeastern Broward County until 515 PM EDT...

* at 418 PM EDT... trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm with small hail over Deerfield Beach. This storm was
nearly stationary.

* The primary impacts will be small hail and gusty winds of 45 to 55
mph. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow
around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building
until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale... Coral Springs... Pompano Beach... Boca Raton...
Deerfield Beach... Tamarac... Margate... Lighthouse Point...
Lauderdale-by-the-Sea... Coconut Creek... Oakland Park... North
Lauderdale... Parkland... Hillsboro Beach... Sea Ranch Lakes...
Broadview-Pompano Park... Boca del Mar... Village Park... Palm aire
and Boca pointe.
Quoting 43. weathermanwannabe:

And another Blog server glitch even on a slow traffic day.....................Starting to get really ridiculous...................


State of the Art Pentium 75 based server is serving well beyond its years. I'm thinking it is only looks slow because most comments aren't actually posting. Crazy 1995 technology.

In the meantime there is still a floater over Julia,which seems doomed to wander the Southeast until October.
Quoting 66. Brock31:



Just now starting to rain here in Ogden after an hour or more of Thunder and lightning. Was dumping at my house down in myrtle grove. Radar almost looks like the circulation is interacting with a frontal system or something. Flood advisory has been issued too.


I'm out by the airport and it's been pouring, just a little wind, but the lightning is what ran me into the house from the porch.
"These floaters are fully automated and dependent upon input to the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system, which is provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Once these agencies have input their last fix into the ATCF, our web floater remains active for an additional 18 hours before being removed."
Quoting 67. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



fish music






It's a nice little song.
Quoting 61. CaribBoy:



Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after ....


Here is your disclaimer for a landfalling tropical cyclone:
Samoa hit by hail storm so rare residents thought it was a hoax
Meteorologist forced to release satellite images of the storm to convince some locals that the hail wasn't part of a practical joke
Guardian, Eleanor Ainge Roy, Monday 19 September 2016 05.11 BST
Samoa has been hit by a hail storm so rare that it was believed to be a hoax by many of the island's inhabitants.
The tropical nation of Samoa lies in the Pacific Ocean, where the average temperature at this time of year is 29C. ...
"Because it was so unexpected a lot of people thought it had been invented. We had to release satellite images of the conditions that led to to the hail for people to believe it was real."
Samoans took to social media to share their photos of the hail, many voicing disbelief at the incident, and then saying it was the "first time" they had been convinced of the phenomenon of climate change. ...


Good night from Germany, and best wishes to Japan with Malakas!
Quoting 80. isothunder67:



Here is your disclaimer for a landfalling tropical cyclone:



This kind of damage are unlikely to happen here.
Quoting 80. isothunder67:



Here is your disclaimer for a landfalling tropical cyclone:

cool!
Quoting 59. DeepSeaRising:

Storms in Wisconsin racing 50-60 mph east. Possible dangerous situation as school releases.


Yup; the Conus jet is howling to the East in those parts today:




Quoting 82. CaribBoy:



This kind of damage are unlikely to happen here.

Many house foundations were undermined in St. Barts after Hurricane Luis and roads were washed away after Hurricane Lenny, yet you continuously wish for storms. You must have nothing to lose. Twice in the last couple of months you have claimed to have gotten 3"of rain,
so cisterns should be looking good by now.
I don't see WKC commenting, it's a sign that nothing will approach the Caribbean during the next 7 days.
Quoting 70. UKHWatcher:



I'd happily wait a year or two. Desmond was a catastrophe for Cumbria. Hundreds of people still not back in their homes 9 months later. We've never had to pump water to keep it from our homes for the last four years. Last winter we needed to on 9 occasions. I'd like a Siberian snap please. 1st December to 1st February.

...At least they resisted the temptation of throwing a dodgy weather pun in as a name this year ref. A-Big-Gale.



Desmond was a bizarre case though - it had an "atmospheric river" which was bringing in moisture all the way form the Caribbean to the UK. It didn't help that before he came it was already quite wet. Personally I want the first storm soon as it usually signifies the proper start of autumn/winter with cooler temps, intensity can be weak with not much rain. A Siberian snap would be most welcome as snow chances would be very high for me then, but I've learnt not to hope for such a thing given how warm the last few winters were.

Unfortunately, it seems as though storms will bring more and more rain. I wouldn't be surprised if more major flooding occured in Cumbria in the near future. Hopefully the government are taking the increase in major flooding seriously and will really start to implement a lot more water management schemes and invest in more river/sea defences.

Will have to keep a close eye on Karl as it could bring a bunch of tropical moisture to parts of the UK. Judging from models, we should get the first storm later this week or next week sometime.
Quoting 85. 2manytimes:


Many house foundations were undermined in St. Barts after Hurricane Luis and roads were washed away after Hurricane Lenny, yet you continuously wish for storms. You must have nothing to lose. Twice in the last couple of months you have claimed to have gotten 3"of rain,
so cisterns should be looking good by now.


A few house foundations...

One road...

Then not every storms are category 4s.

And I still want a storm.
Quoting 81. barbamz:

Samoa hit by hail storm so rare residents thought it was a hoax
Meteorologist forced to release satellite images of the storm to convince some locals that the hail wasn't part of a practical joke
Guardian, Eleanor Ainge Roy, Monday 19 September 2016 05.11 BST
Samoa has been hit by a hail storm so rare that it was believed to be a hoax by many of the island's inhabitants.
The tropical nation of Samoa lies in the Pacific Ocean, where the average temperature at this time of year is 29C. ...
"Because it was so unexpected a lot of people thought it had been invented. We had to release satellite images of the conditions that led to to the hail for people to believe it was real."
Samoans took to social media to share their photos of the hail, many voicing disbelief at the incident, and then saying it was the "first time" they had been convinced of the the phenomenon of climate change. ...


Good night from Germany, and best wishes to Japan with Malakas!


The same thing happened in my wife's families' village in the Philippines a couple of years ago. Some of the villager's prostrated themselves and asked for God's judgment when the hail fell and bounced in a cacophany off the tin rooves! Thankfully my Mum in law who'd been in the UK a few months before and had seen BIG hail, was able to prevent mass hysteria ensuing with her newly gained knowledge.

Apparently, the gfs still likes this storm. It will probably be dropped soon. Usually if the gfs weakens the system, it will drop it.
Quoting 89. UKHWatcher:



.


It was only the second time since records began that hail has fallen on Samoa, the first was in 2011.

2011 the quickening
Quoting 46. justmehouston:



Great washi ...look what you did, appears to be "hiccuping" again ... lol
I'm with you weatherbro, good riddance to summer.
Too hot here, ready for some fall like weather

Ahhh that good 'ol 90's software! :).Seriously it reminds me of my college days back in the mid 90's when the internet was still breaking ground in a lot of things.The kiddies these days take the speed they have now on the internet for granted.In a way I would like to thank WU for making me reminisce about the days I was in my dorm room saying "Its go to get better".
Quoting 88. CaribBoy:



A few house foundations...

One road...

Then not every storms are category 4s.

And I still want a storm.


So it's not about the rain and the water supply then?
Quoting 82. CaribBoy:



This kind of damage are unlikely to happen here.
Yes, but it is still possible. I don't believe your island has taken a direct hit by a category 5 hurricane in recent times. That's like being in an EF3 tornado. I'm almost certain if Hurricane Andrew came over your island it would cause significant damage if not total lost. Also, consider the cost of living there, insurance rates, and cost of repairs are much higher than it is in the U.S. At the end, you don't want a major hurricane, unless you have money to fork out for repairs. And sadly, in the times we are living in, not everyone has that type of money and are living pay check to pay check. That's the reality.

Category 5 hurricane tracks since 1851:



I mean some houses survived, but others were less fortunate and completely flattened.

Quoting 80. isothunder67:



Here is your disclaimer for a landfalling tropical cyclone:



The equivalence of this would be showing Washi a picture of a snowstorm trying to insinuate she doesn't know what a snowstorm is, or showing me a picture of Joplin post-tornado after I express a desire to tornado chase. CaribBoy lives in the Caribbean (shocker!!). You don't think he knows the risks that may be associated with a storm? >.<

If I had the resources, I'd join him the next time a hurricane comes rolling through. I want to witness the awesome nature of a powerful tropical system.
Quoting 87. Envoirment:



Desmond was a bizarre case though - it had an "atmospheric river" which was bringing in moisture all the way form the Caribbean to the UK. It didn't help that before he came it was already quite wet. Personally I want the first storm soon as it usually signifies the proper start of autumn/winter with cooler temps, intensity can be weak with not much rain. A Siberian snap would be most welcome as snow chances would be very high for me then, but I've learnt not to hope for such a thing given how warm the last few winters were.

Unfortunately, it seems as though storms will bring more and more rain. I wouldn't be surprised if more major flooding occured in Cumbria in the near future. Hopefully the government are taking the increase in major flooding seriously and will really start to implement a lot more water management schemes and invest in more river/sea defences.

Will have to keep a close eye on Karl as it could bring a bunch of tropical moisture to parts of the UK. Judging from models, we should get the first storm later this week or next week sometime.


I agree and believe Karl will impact us someway. That same atmospheric river did for Cumbria back in January 2005. the Cuba express I heard it called then so it's not currently a '1 in 100 year' type event. As for the flooding in Cumbria, i walk on the fells and the damage I saw on the high boggy tops has been really significant from Desmond. All the trees were cut down off those fells 2500 years ago to feed the industrial revolution. My theory is that the roots of those trees are finally rotting away and the bog structure is being weakened. 50 years from now I think they could just be barren rocks. I'm a local mouthpiece on the benefits of planing willow short term to rebind the bog then thinning and replanting oak, chestnut and sycamore whilst they have willow cover from the wind. Most importantly, the sheep need to be kept off the fells till the trees are tall enough to deal with them. That is what the true lake District fells should look like. Tall trees on a hill top don't make for good panorama shots though!

Quoting 88. CaribBoy:



A few house foundations...

One road...

Then not every storms are category 4s.

And I still want a storm.

Everyone on this planet knows you want a storm.  Its tired.

Bye Karl, good luck in the open ocean.
Quoting 51. Jedkins01:

I'll have to measure it out later to get the exact amount. After 0.77 yesterday, we've had close to 3 inches in the past 24 hours. So it's been active around here lately.

I wish everyone who posts would say where "around here" is for them. I can't keep up with everyone who doesn't have their location obvious in their wu-name.
Quoting 90. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Apparently, the gfs still likes this storm. It will probably be dropped soon. Usually if the gfs weakens the system, it will drop it.
yes but this time of year especially Oct we watch anything down there huh..its our danger month for sure.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016

Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and ship observations
indicate that the large low pressure system located southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands has maintained a well-defined circulation and has
developed sufficient organized convection to be considered a
tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on
scatterometer wind data of near 30 kt along with Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. The central pressure is based on reports from ship
D5ET2 during is traversal through the center of the cyclone over the
past 12 hours. The depression is a large tropical cyclone with a
wind field that is more than 400 n mi in diameter.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/10 kt, based
primarily on scatterometer and microwave satellite data. The
depression is located along the southern periphery of a large
deep-layer ridge that is foreast to steer the cyclone westward for
the next 24 hours or so, followed by west-northwestward motion
through 120 hours. The official forecast track lies close to the
consensus model TVCN through 96 hours, and then leans toward a blend
of the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models since the GFS dissipates
the cyclone by 120 hours, a scenario that seems premature given the
current large size of the cyclone.

Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low at less than 10 kt
over the cyclone for the next 48 hours, which favors steady
intensification. However, the mid-level moisture is only expected to
be marginal during that time, with humidity values around 60 percent
or less. The drier air along with the large size of the cyclone are
expected to temper the development process, and this is reflected by
the slower-than-average intensification rate. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows the intensity model IVCN. This forecast is
lower than the SHIPS, LGEM, and ECMWF models, which brings the
cyclone to near hurricane strength by 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 13.6N 28.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 15.6N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 16.7N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 17.6N 35.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 19.5N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 21.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 23.5N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 61. CaribBoy:



Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after Fish after ....

Better fish after fish, etc. than fish and then chiped for those on the coasts of the big fry up?
Karl forecasted by NHC to be Cat 2.
My daily thoughts on the Atlantic for today...

*Karl looks like it has survived its battle with unfavorable conditions. I agree with the NHC intensity forecast of slow strengthening at first, then faster intensification possible in a few days. Bermuda should continue to watch it. I suspect the recurve will be very sharp, so much so that it may end up SSW of Bermuda, but still hook hard enough right to miss the island to the east. Not a sure thing on that part of the forecast though.
*TD 13 continues to look like a non-issue, and I see no reason to disagree with the NHC forecast on track or intensity.
*Beyond those two, nothing obvious on the horizon for the next 7 days.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 192053
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016

Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and ship observations
indicate that the large low pressure system located southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands has maintained a well-defined circulation and has
developed sufficient organized convection to be considered a
tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on
scatterometer wind data of near 30 kt along with Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. The central pressure is based on reports from ship
D5ET2 during is traversal through the center of the cyclone over the
past 12 hours. The depression is a large tropical cyclone with a
wind field that is more than 400 n mi in diameter.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/10 kt, based
primarily on scatterometer and microwave satellite data. The
depression is located along the southern periphery of a large
deep-layer ridge that is foreast to steer the cyclone westward for
the next 24 hours or so, followed by west-northwestward motion
through 120 hours. The official forecast track lies close to the
consensus model TVCN through 96 hours, and then leans toward a blend
of the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models since the GFS dissipates
the cyclone by 120 hours, a scenario that seems premature given the
current large size of the cyclone.

Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low at less than 10 kt
over the cyclone for the next 48 hours, which favors steady
intensification. However, the mid-level moisture is only expected to
be marginal during that time, with humidity values around 60 percent
or less. The drier air along with the large size of the cyclone are
expected to temper the development process, and this is reflected by
the slower-than-average intensification rate. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows the intensity model IVCN. This forecast is
lower than the SHIPS, LGEM, and ECMWF models, which brings the
cyclone to near hurricane strength by 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 13.6N 28.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 15.6N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 16.7N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 17.6N 35.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 19.5N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 21.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 23.5N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Quoting 70. UKHWatcher:



I'd happily wait a year or two. Desmond was a catastrophe for Cumbria. Hundreds of people still not back in their homes 9 months later. We've never had to pump water to keep it from our homes for the last four years. Last winter we needed to on 9 occasions. I'd like a Siberian snap please. 1st December to 1st February.

...At least they resisted the temptation of throwing a dodgy weather pun in as a name this year ref. A-Big-Gale.



In January 1994, I had the combination of a "Siberian Snap" followed by heavy ice pellets and rain, followed by another "Siberian Snap" in the DC metro area, one of three times in the past 75 years that the DCA observing site has gone below 0F. THe first snap froze my sump pump line which is buried only 10cm down, the rain and previous rains left water around my foundation and required pumping. I had to get an alternate pump to discharge elsewhere since I was also short of time, my father was snowed in in Pennsylvania with 70cm of snow
on the ground and a frozen fuel line and I had to go rescue him. While planning this a water main broke and it was cold enough the water froze on top of the running stream and advanced slowly as a creeping ice front to my foundation where it then ran down requiring more pumping.

Siberian cold AND water mixed to make a nasty situation. BTW all that rain and ice pellets froze into a clear smooth sheet about 3cm thick and even grassy areas were almost unwalkable. The only grace is that at -15C (with strong wind!) the ice was less slippery than it would have been at higher temperatures.

Siberian outbreaks are within our climatology in the U.S. middle Atlantic when strong Pacific ridging creates cross polar flow.

We will have Recon in Karl within the next 24-48 hours. Can't wait for the missions and data over the next week. Really hoping it will miss Bermuda.
Heads up sailors!

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
443 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016

AMZ254-256-274-276-192215-
443 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

THE AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE...
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20
NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20
NM...
WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC FROM 20 TO 40
NM...
WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO
40 NM...

AT 443 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 NM NORTH OF
MYRTLE BEACH TO NEAR MURRELLS INLET TO 11 NM NORTHWEST OF DEBORDIEU
COLONY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

YOUR BEST COURSE OF ACTION DURING THUNDERSTORMS IS TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. HOWEVER IF YOU AREA CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK
IF POSSIBLE AND STAY AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS UNTIL THESE
STORMS PASS. MAKE SURE EVERYONE ON BOARD IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS.
THOSE REMAINING ON THE WATER CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
Is Weather Underground having difficulties right now? I tried posting a new entry, but it has yet to show up.

*EDIT: It was a little slow to show up, but it's up now.
why I have this feeling, the Lesser Antillies/ Leewards islands will be impacted by a storm/hurricane
before the season ends might just run out of luck...something might give lol

*my feeling lol*
Afternoon all. ...

Continues hot and humid here in Nassau ... exacerbated by the lack of easterly breezes over the island. I surely don't want to see a named storm here, but wouldn't mind another juicy Twave ....

Watching Karl, TD13, and Paine with interest, and hoping Japan will not have too much flood / landslide damage from Malakas. ....

L8r!
Quoting 110. ibhybhhb:

why I have this feeling, the Lesser Antillies/ Leewards islands will be impacted by a storm/hurricane
before the season ends might just run out of luck...something might give lol

*my feeling lol*
I wouldn't be surprised. We've had a number of fairly strong October systems impact the Caribbean, including the Lesser Antilles, over the last 10 years. Tomas is the one that comes to mind, but I don't think it's the only one ....
Quoting 109. 1900hurricane:

Is Weather Underground having difficulties right now? I tried posting a new entry, but it has yet to show up.

*EDIT: It was a little slow to show up, but it's up now.

Seems we are having about a 20 minute lag time from posting to appearing on the blog pages!
TS Karl...

.....this photo reminds me of hurricane hugo lewis lenny and the list goes on and on I lived through all of these
hurricanes as a toddler I have experience so many hurricanes from hurricane david come rite up now 2016

*yep*
Quoting 95. Astrometeor:



The equivalence of this would be showing Washi a picture of a snowstorm trying to insinuate she doesn't know what a snowstorm is, or showing me a picture of Joplin post-tornado after I express a desire to tornado chase. CaribBoy lives in the Caribbean (shocker!!). You don't think he knows the risks that may be associated with a storm? >.<

If I had the resources, I'd join him the next time a hurricane comes rolling through. I want to witness the awesome nature of a powerful tropical system.



.....this photo reminds me of hurricane hugo lewis lenny and the list goes on and on I lived through all of these
hurricanes as a toddler I have experience so many hurricanes from hurricane david come rite up now 2016

*yep*
TD 13/Lisa I think has a shot at Hurricane status, high end tropical storm for sure. Vigorous spin.

Quoting 109. 1900hurricane:

Is Weather Underground having difficulties right now? I tried posting a new entry, but it has yet to show up.

*EDIT: It was a little slow to show up, but it's up now.

A better question to ask is when is WU not having difficulties?
Karl trying to create his own moisture field to fight off the dry air, convection starting to fire over the center, could strengthen a bit more then expected prior to passing well north of the islands, then will continue as it turns north.

Quoting 95. Astrometeor:



The equivalence of this would be showing Washi a picture of a snowstorm trying to insinuate she doesn't know what a snowstorm is, or showing me a picture of Joplin post-tornado after I express a desire to tornado chase. CaribBoy lives in the Caribbean (shocker!!). You don't think he knows the risks that may be associated with a storm? >.<

If I had the resources, I'd join him the next time a hurricane comes rolling through. I want to witness the awesome nature of a powerful tropical system.
You will be able to witness them again, in the U.S., but you will need to come to Florida or somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Their truly is nothing lie experiencing a Cat 5 storm, it's amazing the power of nature, and what effect it has on man made structures. If you are prepared and have a well built house from the ground up, you should survive with little problems. But one thing, it is totally different then a EF3 Tornado or above. The tornados , that size, are much worse for the small area they cover.
Here is yesterday's track forecast for Karl compared with today's:

Sunday 5 p.m. Initial 18.3N 45W
Monday 5 p.m. Initial 19.3N 49.2W
24H Projection9/18 was19N 49.7W (accuracy within 3/10ths degree longitude and 5/10ths degreelatitude).So Karl wenta little less north and a half degree less west than expected.
Quoting 120. NativeSun:

You will be able to witness them again, in the U.S., but you will need to come to Florida or somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Their truly is nothing lie experiencing a Cat 5 storm, it's amazing the power of nature, and what effect it has on man made structures. If you are prepared and have a well built house from the ground up, you should survive with little problems. But one thing, it is totally different then a EF3 Tornado or above. The tornados , that size, are much worse for the small area they cover.




A cat 3 was enough for me. I don't want to be in a cat 5. My cousin was a Homestead police officer and he spent the night in his closet praying during Andrew.
Quoting 114. GeoffreyWPB:

TS Karl...




7 degrees further south would be great.
Quoting 81. barbamz:

Samoa hit by hail storm so rare residents thought it was a hoax
Meteorologist forced to release satellite images of the storm to convince some locals that the hail wasn't part of a practical joke
Guardian, Eleanor Ainge Roy, Monday 19 September 2016 05.11 BST
Samoa has been hit by a hail storm so rare that it was believed to be a hoax by many of the island's inhabitants.
The tropical nation of Samoa lies in the Pacific Ocean, where the average temperature at this time of year is 29C. ...
"Because it was so unexpected a lot of people thought it had been invented. We had to release satellite images of the conditions that led to to the hail for people to believe it was real."
Samoans took to social media to share their photos of the hail, many voicing disbelief at the incident, and then saying it was the "first time" they had been convinced of the phenomenon of climate change. ...


Good night from Germany, and best wishes to Japan with Malakas!


Few years ago Vanuatu experienced its first hailstorm on record too. And Singapore, right on the equator line, was hit by an exceptional hailstorm which left some streets covered in a thin layer of ice.
Even more incredible, a hailstorm was recorded decades ago in the atoll of Penrhyn in Oceania,part of the Cook Islands, but closer to the equator than Samoa itself.
Panama also experienced hail at sea level for the first time ever few years ago.

90.7F, RH 33%, High was 92.5@12:26... Paine in the A$$.


.........................
Karl looking burly tonight.
I hope Bermuda needs rain.
After the series of fishes......





Trough to the north, but continues west.
not much convection with the t-wave in east Caribbean
water vapor loop
...TROPICAL WAVES... from 2PM NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This tropical wave is
moving across the eastern part of Puerto Rico. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 19N southward between 63W
and 68W.

The wave is caught between a rock and a hard place.

which is probably why nobody is too concerned about it
Wowza, Karl is blowing up!





Best it's looked since it first became a TS.
Quoting 41. dartboardmodel:

.
When I look at this rainbow loop, sometimes I wonder if Karl won't be able to get tugged to the North after all. Seems the tail end of the thunderstorms from the low developing by Bermuda could care less to move North, looks like they want to move west? I guess I am one of those believe when I see it guys.


Karl has already begun the turn to the WNW. Watch it climb in latitude towards the end of the gif.

Quoting 106. georgevandenberghe:





In January 1994, I had the combination of a "Siberian Snap" followed by heavy ice pellets and rain, followed by another "Siberian Snap" in the DC metro area, one of three times in the past 75 years that the DCA observing site has gone below 0F. THe first snap froze my sump pump line which is buried only 10cm down, the rain and previous rains left water around my foundation and required pumping. I had to get an alternate pump to discharge elsewhere since I was also short of time, my father was snowed in in Pennsylvania with 70cm of snow
on the ground and a frozen fuel line and I had to go rescue him. While planning this a water main broke and it was cold enough the water froze on top of the running stream and advanced slowly as a creeping ice front to my foundation where it then ran down requiring more pumping.

Siberian cold AND water mixed to make a nasty situation. BTW all that rain and ice pellets froze into a clear smooth sheet about 3cm thick and even grassy areas were almost unwalkable. The only grace is that at -15C (with strong wind!) the ice was less slippery than it would have been at higher temperatures.

Siberian outbreaks are within our climatology in the U.S. middle Atlantic when strong Pacific ridging creates cross polar flow.




Just goes to show that one man's dream weather is another man's mischief! God bless us all with a little bit of each! (just so as to remind us who is really in charge)
Strong Band of showers coming up through Central Florida.
Link Radar
Special Statement
Issued: 6:16 PM EDT Sep. 19, 2016 %u2013 National Weather Service
... Significant weather advisory for northwestern Volusia County until
700 PM EDT...
At 615 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Barberville... moving east at 15 to 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach... Deland... Pierson... Barberville and deleon Springs.
Ex Julia and front converging on me now. Squalls out of the southeast plus heavy rain moving in from west will make for a nasty night!
135. ackee
Could the tropics spring an October surprise out of the carrbbean I noticed the Euro hints of something trying to form near the windward now. The GFs as been on and off with something developing in carrbbean the 18z now show storm tracking through the southern carrbbean than moving into the western carrbbean let's see what will happen
Quoting 122. K8eCane:



A cat 3 was enough for me. I don't want to be in a cat 5. My cousin was a Homestead police officer and he spent the night in his closet praying during Andrew.
Yes, we went thru Andrew, Donna, Betsy, Camille, and quite a few others. If you decide to ride one out, make sure you have a very strong house, with a generator large enough to power everything you need, and far enough away from the ocean to avoid the storm surge.
Quoting 95. Astrometeor:



The equivalence of this would be showing Washi a picture of a snowstorm trying to insinuate she doesn't know what a snowstorm is, or showing me a picture of Joplin post-tornado after I express a desire to tornado chase. CaribBoy lives in the Caribbean (shocker!!). You don't think he knows the risks that may be associated with a storm? >.<

If I had the resources, I'd join him the next time a hurricane comes rolling through. I want to witness the awesome nature of a powerful tropical system.


Almost incredible to read such lunacy. Much to our dismay, we, my family, endured Andrew. Will never forget the ominous warning from Brian Norcross when he spoke about this being the real deal. Would not wish this on my worst enemy. It may seem like fun, it AIN'T.

Oh yeah, almost forgot........Andrew was a fast moving storm but the aftermath seemed to go on forever. Gas lines, water lines, ice lines, food lines......no electricity for weeks.....the hospitals were overwhelmed....but fear not you should feel the awesome nature of a powerful tropical system. Actually, I believe that you deserve one.
Fantasy or Fact? Most likely fantasy since it is 384 hrs. However, there has been a few consecutive runs showing something brewing in the West Caribbean. We shall see.

Quoting 106. georgevandenberghe:





In January 1994, I had the combination of a "Siberian Snap" followed by heavy ice pellets and rain, followed by another "Siberian Snap" in the DC metro area, one of three times in the past 75 years that the DCA observing site has gone below 0F. THe first snap froze my sump pump line which is buried only 10cm down, the rain and previous rains left water around my foundation and required pumping. I had to get an alternate pump to discharge elsewhere since I was also short of time, my father was snowed in in Pennsylvania with 70cm of snow
on the ground and a frozen fuel line and I had to go rescue him. While planning this a water main broke and it was cold enough the water froze on top of the running stream and advanced slowly as a creeping ice front to my foundation where it then ran down requiring more pumping.

Siberian cold AND water mixed to make a nasty situation. BTW all that rain and ice pellets froze into a clear smooth sheet about 3cm thick and even grassy areas were almost unwalkable. The only grace is that at -15C (with strong wind!) the ice was less slippery than it would have been at higher temperatures.

Siberian outbreaks are within our climatology in the U.S. middle Atlantic when strong Pacific ridging creates cross polar flow.


I would rather go thru another Cat 5, then a storm like that. Please keep all your cold and ice up their.
Quoting 124. maxcrc:



Few years ago Vanuatu experienced its first hailstorm on record too. And Singapore, right on the equator line, was hit by an exceptional hailstorm which left some streets covered in a thin layer of ice.
Even more incredible, a hailstorm was recorded decades ago in the atoll of Penrhyn in Oceania,part of the Cook Islands, but closer to the equator than Samoa itself.
Panama also experienced hail at sea level for the first time ever few years ago.



You need some serious convection to get hail at those latitudes.
Quoting 138. unknowncomic:

Fantasy or Fact? Most likely fantasy since it is 384 hrs. However, there has been a few consecutive runs showing something brewing in the West Caribbean. We shall see.


I just got done watching that run, and it looked like the fantasy storm was hooking to the right over the western tip of Cuba. It's out in fantasy land but has been shown the last few runs, looks like it could be a central or south FL hit (Wilma 2.0). Have to wait and see.
Now I was only joking when I said that now that I was in Alaska we would get a "hurricane".... However, the second big fall windstorm is coming soon. It's "tropical" in origin so it's warm and wet. NWS is having trouble forecasting top winds, but warning it could rival the 131 mph gusts of a bad 2012 storm. Good thing I got my windstorm preparedness skills from living in South Florida. In either case should get sustained winds in the 40-50mph range where I am at.
Flash flood warning now
Quoting 138. unknowncomic:

Fantasy or Fact? Most likely fantasy since it is 384 hrs. However, there has been a few consecutive runs showing something brewing in the West Caribbean. We shall see.




Florida residents should monitor all news broadcasts regarding tropical weather.

looks like DOOM here
Quoting 144. pureet1948:



Florida residents should monitor all news broadcasts regarding tropical weather.
Bwahahaha.I would ask if you're serious but knowing your track record.......
Different strokes for different folks.
Blessings and good tidings to all...

Quoting 137. AreadersinceWilma:



Almost incredible to read such lunacy. Much to our dismay, we, my family, endured Andrew. Will never forget the ominous warning from Brian Norcross when he spoke about this being the real deal. Would not wish this on my worst enemy. It may seem like fun, it AIN'T.

Oh yeah, almost forgot........Andrew was a fast moving storm but the aftermath seemed to go on forever. Gas lines, water lines, ice lines, food lines......no electricity for weeks.....the hospitals were overwhelmed....but fear not you should feel the awesome nature of a powerful tropical system. Actually, I believe that you deserve one.



I remember Andrew very well, I was 13 when it hit and it's the only time I ever remember seeing my parents scared. We lived in North Miami and Andrew was forecast just hours beforehand to come right through north dade county. And the last minute Andrew veered/wobbled 50 miles south and hit Homestead/Kendal.

While Andrew devastated south dade with 25 billion in damages, if it had hit 50 miles north that damage would have been 40-50 billion (and those numbers are 1992 dollars, not 2016). No sane person should ever say they want to experience a cat5 storm in their area.
Nothing for us for the northern leewards islands,
Please a powerful one,
arlntic ocean is. Dead
Evening all.



ex-Julia gittin' an eye wall. ;) Figures, not long after they discontinue advisories..
Quoting 148. GeoffreyWPB:

Blessings and good tidings to all...




I look at the GFS as that person who writes the correct answer on a test, then doubts himself/herself and changes the answer to the wrong answer. I know this is the super long range GFS, but I'm not going to completely discard it. Like, 90% discard it.
Quoting 139. NativeSun:

I would rather go thru another Cat 5, then a storm like that. Please keep all your cold and ice up their.


A Cat 5 would destroy my house. What I describe was a nerve racking inconvenience.
Quoting 135. ackee:

Could the tropics spring an October surprise out of the carrbbean I noticed the Euro hints of something trying to form near the windward now. The GFs as been on and off with something developing in carrbbean the 18z now show storm tracking through the southern carrbbean than moving into the western carrbbean let's see what will happen


An October storm should not be considered a surprise. It's climatology.
Quoting 151. GatorWX:

Evening all.



ex-Julia gittin' an eye wall. ;) Figures, not long after they discontinue advisories..


Gotta laugh....
Quoting 144. pureet1948:



Florida residents should monitor all news broadcasts regarding tropical weather.


Why?
October and November storms is the Western Caribbean can be powerful , Paloma 2008, Wilma 2005 comes to mind!

Moisture from Paine being entrained in the difluent flow of an otherwise dry midlevel low offshore of SoCal while Pacific jet knifes into the CONUS via the PacNW.
AL, 12, 2016091906, , BEST, 0, 182N, 468W, 35, 1006, TS
AL, 12, 2016091912, , BEST, 0, 183N, 477W, 35, 1006, TS
AL, 12, 2016091918, , BEST, 0, 191N, 486W, 35, 1006, TS
AL, 12, 2016092000, , BEST, 0, 195N, 499W, 40, 1005, TS

Looks like TD13 is losing the fight against the SAL.



SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND, CA TO GUADALUPE ISLAND FROM 60 NM OFFSHORE
WEST TO 120W-
319 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

TROPICAL STORM WARNING


TONIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOMING N TO NE
EARLY. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
TSTMS EARLY.

TUE
N TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS BECOMING 5
TO 9 FT...THEN BUILDING TO 8 TO 14 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SE.

TUE NIGHT
N WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT
EARLY. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 17 FT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHEST SE.
RAIN AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS SE PORTION.

WED
WINDS DIMINISHING TO W TO NW 5 TO 15 KT EARLY. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 8 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
Quoting 157. stormpetrol:

October and November storms is the Western Caribbean can be powerful , Paloma 2008, Wilma 2005 comes to mind!


Well let's hope we don't get one.
has TD 13 may be are last CV storm of the season and CV season drew too a closed we now turn too closer to home has will have too watch the Western Caribbean sea

Flash-in-the-pan Paine hitting the cold water.
Quoting 158. BayFog:


Moisture from Paine being entrained in the difluent flow of an otherwise dry midlevel low offshore of SoCal while Pacific jet knifes into the CONUS via the PacNW.


Can someone share Paine's rain totals from southern CA, Nevada and Arizona?
Quoting 163. thetwilightzone:

has TD 13 may be are last CV storm of the season and CV season drew too a closed we now turn too closer to home has will have too watch the Western Caribbean sea


What's with the broken English all of a sudden, or am I missing something?
NWS San Diego:

"...The clouds are streaming north ahead of a low pressure trough off the
coast of Northern Baja, and from moisture streaming north from
Hurricane Paine located west of Southern Baja. Doppler radar this
afternoon showed echoes move from southeast to northwest across the
coastal and valley zones, but there haven`t been any reports of
measurable rain through 1 pm. Most of the rain is evaporating in
the dry subcloud layer below 10kft. This will change overnight
as the lower levels slowly saturate. At 1 pm, radar showed a large
area of light to moderate precip over northern Baja and this area
will move north tonight when thicker clouds and light to moderate
bands of precip move in from the south..."
Quoting 166. skycycle:



What's with the broken English all of a sudden, or am I missing something?


dont start trouble with other blogers this is your only warning the next person that say any thing about my english will end up on my ignore has this kind of post i will not put up with on this blog
169. SLU
The HWRF has taken off with Karl

Quoting 166. skycycle:



What's with the broken English all of a sudden, or am I missing something?


Not for you to worry about.
Quoting 160. AussieStorm:

Looks like TD13 is losing the fight against the SAL.






may be you should check the maps out be for you make your post and saying stuff that are not really ture at all





there is little to no SAL at all where TD 13 is and there is a anticyclone over TD 13 so wind shear is not a issue
10 miles west of St Augustine in NEFl we just had our first good old fashioned summer time thunderstorm. It's been so long since we have had one of those that I almost forgot what thunder and lightning were like. An inch and a half in 45 minutes! :)))))))))
173. SLU
Quoting 160. AussieStorm:

Looks like TD13 is losing the fight against the SAL.







Not really. It is DMIN and already you can see the popcorn firing which means there should be a nice burst of thunderstorms overnight that will take 13L to TS Lisa by tomorrow.
How do you check total daily precipitation for a station on Wunderground?
Quoting 173. SLU:




Not really. It is DMIN and already you can see the popcorn firing which means there should be a nice burst of thunderstorms overnight that will take 13L to TS Lisa by tomorrow.


and there a anticyclone over TD 13 so for now wind shear not a issue
Quoting 148. GeoffreyWPB:

Blessings and good tidings to all...




I hate playing this game but if you look at how all that is set up there. IIIFFF that happened it would make for an interesting event.
Quoting 171. thetwilightzone:



may be you should check the maps out be for you make your post and saying stuff that are not really ture at all





there is little to no SAL at all where TD 13 is and there is a anticyclone over TD 13 so wind shear is not a issue

Are we looking at the same map, there is tons of SAL
Nevermind, found the filter on wundermap myself, plus this 1-3 Day Precipitation Forecast on WPC.



Seems like far southern CA and parts of Arizona can receive more than 1" from Paine's moisture. Anything over 1.35" will make into California's top 10 wettest tropical cyclone events - #10 currently is 1990's Boris with 1.35".

Side-note, is that big blob the remnants of Julia bringing lots of rain for the Outer Banks?
Quoting 45. JiffMassasWC:



Season is over kid
Very informative first comment :)
Julia's back imo. Wouldn't be surprised to find some 30-35mph winds sustained within the bands of stronger thunderstorms. TD again likely.
HWRF wants to destroy Bermuda.
Quoting 166. skycycle:



What's with the broken English all of a sudden, or am I missing something?


Haaa!...Ummm...I think you're missing something indeed. Same Taz Speak as always but gets his message across.
Quoting 181. isothunder67:

HWRF wants to destroy Bermuda.


Bermuda: oh I'm so awesome out In the middle of the Atlantic. Everyone just loves me!
Karl: Oh you think you are so important being there for ages! WELL
Bermuda: People just love to see me from all over the world guys!
Karl: gUrl hold my weave for a moment.

Not sure why I felt this necessary but.... night everyone.
The outer banks stole my rain! :)
Is julia back!
Link
186. IDTH
Quoting 181. isothunder67:

HWRF wants to destroy Bermuda.


Bermuda can't seem to catch a break.
187. JRRP7
Looks like Karl is starting to strengthen now, wouldn't be surprised to see it become a hurricane sooner than forecast. It's really moistening up its environment with the current big convective burst and more thunderstorms are popping up around all:



Tomorrow should be very interesting - humidity levels will be increasing to above 50%, SSTs to 28.5-29C and wind shear will be around and below 10kts. Karl has a very good chance at intesifying at a good pace. Perhaps even undergoing some rapid intensification once it reaches a sweet spot in 3-4 days time (SSTs of 29.5-30C, wind shear of 0-5 kts and humidity levels of ~60%).

I hope Karl misses Bermuda, it could be a very powerful system soon...
How is it looking down there Carriboy???
Quoting 155. Bucsboltsfan:



Gotta laugh....


It was very tropical here today. Downpours and mist clouds almost to the ground. You could feel some energy pulling together. Julia might get back to a depression. She won't go away
I wrote this morning I didn't think Julia was going to "dissipitate"
Quoting 185. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Is julia back!
Link
Np
Quoting 171. thetwilightzone:



may be you should check the maps out be for you make your post and saying stuff that are not really ture at all





there is little to no SAL at all where TD 13 is and there is a anticyclone over TD 13 so wind shear is not a issue


Mid level dry air (40-50%) and downward phase of MJO would do it
Nothing for us in the latest GFS and GEFS
Quoting 194. CaribBoy:

Nothing for us in the latest GFS and GEFS
What about the system the GFS predicts around the windwards/ leewards islands
Quoting 168. thetwilightzone:



dont start trouble with other blogers this is your only warning the next person that say any thing about my english will end up on my ignore has this kind of post i will not put up with on this blog



Good lord

Last time I checked this was Dr Masters blog

Example A of why people are leaving
why are there people on here saying season over.....look at satt. photos over Africa. you have to be a fool.
Where is the arintic ocean where you want a powerful life threating monster hurricane?


Quoting 150. zicoille:

Nothing for us for the northern leewards islands,
Please a powerful one,
arlntic ocean is. Dead


Karl expected to be near Major Hurricane status in 5 days. Wow

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016

Karl is a little better organized tonight. An area of deep
convection has been persisting during the past several hours, and
microwave images indicate that the center is located near the
southwestern edge of the convective area. The initial wind speed
is nudged upward to 40 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Karl is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and it is being steered
by the flow on the south side of a high pressure system over the
subtropical Atlantic. The tropical cyclone is expected to move near
the southwestern periphery of the high in a couple of days and then
head toward a pronounced weakness in the ridge over the western
Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should result in Karl
turning northwestward in about 48 hours, with a gradual turn to the
north and northeast expected in 4 to 5 days. Although the models
agree on the overall theme, there is a fair amount of spread in the
guidance associated with where and when Karl begins to recurve. The
NHC official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance
envelope, and is in best agreement with the various consensus aids.

The vertical wind shear that has been affecting Karl for the past
several days appears to be letting up some, and the SHIPS model
suggests that shear should be generally light during the next 5
days. In addition, Karl is currently over SSTs of around 28 deg C,
and it is expected to move over even warmer waters throughout the
forecast period. The one unfavorable parameter for intensification
is the dry mid-level environment surrounding the tropical storm,
but some of the guidance suggests that the air mass could moisten
ahead of the system later this week. Based on these large scale
conditions, slow strengthening seems likely during the next day or
so, followed by a faster rate of intensification thereafter. The
NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is on
the conservative side of the guidance at the longer range forecast
points.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.7N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.4N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 21.3N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 22.4N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 23.9N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 26.7N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 29.5N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 32.3N 60.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
The USMC air station at Yuma is currently reporting light rain and DUST, under the thick plume of moisture outflowing from Paine as it begins to wind down. One can only assume that the rain is evaporating too fast to wet the ground, hence the dust. Lovely. On the upside, for them, the temperature has fallen to 84 F.
Quoting 198. ETFRIEND:

Where is the arintic ocean where you want a powerful life threating monster hurricane?




Where is the arintic ocean period?
Quoting 198. ETFRIEND:

Where is the arintic ocean where you want a powerful life threating monster hurricane?





Kids say the darndest things
Quoting 171. thetwilightzone:



may be you should check the maps out be for you make your post and saying stuff that are not really ture at all





there is little to no SAL at all where TD 13 is and there is a anticyclone over TD 13 so wind shear is not a issue

Ouch.... not really. Still a fish. Just how I like them.

Quoting 173. SLU:




Not really. It is DMIN and already you can see the popcorn firing which means there should be a nice burst of thunderstorms overnight that will take 13L to TS Lisa by tomorrow.


Just making a visual observation. Look where the convection is. Centre shift?
Quoting 156. Bucsboltsfan:



Why?


Because the GFS says this storm will occur in the first weeks of October. Now, usually, at that time of year, the wind currents favor Florida landfalls. By October, the storm season is usually over for Texas.
Quoting 162. Bucsboltsfan:



Well let's hope we don't get one.


You could, though. October is the heart of hurricane season for Florida.
Quoting 169. SLU:

The HWRF has taken off with Karl





Fish.
Quoting 201. BayFog:


Where is the arintic ocean period?


Right up there near Canadia and Grernlam
Got a thermodynamics test tomorrow, *gulp*. Back to studying I go.

Quoting 147. 1900hurricane:

Different strokes for different folks.


Most folks can't separate their own emotions when they speak. Which is fine, it's human nature to be tied up like that, but insinuating lunacy or a lack of care towards others is over the line...what is it my mother always told me? Oh yea, "If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say it." The only reason I posted was I was sick of the attacks on CaribBoy. The guy lives in the danger zone of the storms. What's lunacy is attacking him non-stop, while misunderstanding that those islands need tropical systems in order to have water. Granted a multitude of weak storms would be better than a strong system, but there's no reason to think that a random anonymous poster's comments is going to have an effect on which way a storm may blow. I like to tease WKC, because of his knack of posting "west" as the direction for cyclones, but I have no ill towards him. I can't say the same for how I see others treat him or how others treat Carib.

When I was in high school, I nearly stood up during a practice drill to tell my principal that she didn't have the authority to tell the students to stay quiet. What does being quiet do? If a tornado strikes, it's not going to bend away because it can't hear you. If a tornado is bearing down, everyone knows the drill, no word needs to be spoken. I can tell you though, there will be plenty of screaming, just like there was plenty of crying when an F3 sliced my town in two.

I'd rather have a hurricane over a tornado. You get warning for a hurricane, sometimes days in advance. A tornado....15 minutes? Joy.
Quoting 195. bupsin101:

What about the system the GFS predicts around the windwards/ leewards islands


Extremely low rider so far.
Good evening

I've got something to say tonight that I feel needs saying.

To all of you that feel you need to cut others down for their ways of speaking, their spellings, or ways of expressing themselves, just look at the context, okay.

Not all bloggers here have university or college degrees, or maybe even high school degrees, whatever! What regular bloggers have on this blog is a genuine interest in weather, a love for following systems, and a respect for each other that beats any other blog I've ever been to.

I don't question someone's spelling or grammatical ability....just stop for a minute and look at what that blogger is saying.

I think if you did that, you'd grow to appreciate those that you cut down.

*rant done*

Lindy

Quoting 181. isothunder67:

HWRF wants to destroy Bermuda.



Unfortunately, the HWRF prediction for Karl may materialize... Be ever Vigilant with the Tropics. Also, the Northern leewards still need to monitor the progress of Karl at this point...long period swell is already approaching the islands.
Of course, one dares Not leave out T.D. 13; I must say from all apparent loops and imagery its one of the more Vigorous tropical depressions I've seen in a while. Some of the Cabo Verde islands must have had a bit of a rough but prolonged time with this system.
It would be absolutely no surprise to see the system upgraded even overnight & -Lisa named by the morning. Hopefully it keeps OTS...

Keep safe Everyone & God Bless!
Quoting 206. pureet1948:




Fish.


it will not be a fish if hits Bermuda
Karl should do well overnight, at first I thought it may take a couple more days but with the environment looking a little better and more moisture starting to surround the system, will not be surprised to see a strong tropical storm 60-70 mph by tomorrow night. Bermuda stay alert.
Quoting 209. CaribBoy:



Extremely low rider so far.
Quoting 209. CaribBoy:



Extremely low rider so far.
How low?
Karl may not actually be as organized as you may think. Notice how the convection seems to have barely moved throughout this loop while the llc has continued west. Karl is still decoupled but is getting there slowly organization wise.

Either that OR the llc is still elongated from west to east. Either way its getting there slowly organization wise but still has work to do as of the time of this post.

That's what I see with my eyes.





Quoting 210. LindyVirginIslander:

Good evening

I've got something to say tonight that I feel needs saying.

To all of you that feel you need to cut others down for their ways of speaking, their spellings, or ways of expressing themselves, just look at the context, okay.

Not all bloggers here have university or college degrees, or maybe even high school degrees, whatever! What regular bloggers have on this blog is a genuine interest in weather, a love for following systems, and a respect for each other that beats any other blog I've ever been to.

I don't question someone's spelling or grammatical ability....just stop for a minute and look at what that blogger is saying.

I think if you did that, you'd grow to appreciate those that you cut down.

*rant done*

Lindy



Well stated; thank you.
Quoting 197. markot:

why are there people on here saying season over.....look at satt. photos over Africa. you have to be a fool.


All you have to do is look in the past and realize October can still produce devastating storms.
Well, my 18-9-5 prediction may only pan out if the rest of the season can produce some majors toward the end. Doesn't look to bad so far.


Racing W at the speed of light... and at a very low latitude
Quoting 215. Tornado6042008X:

Karl may not actually be as organized as you may think. Notice how the convection seems to have barely moved throughout this loop while the llc has continued west. Karl is still decoupled but is getting there slowly organization wise.

Either that OR the llc is still elongated from west to east. Either way its getting there slowly organization wise but still has work to do as of the time of this post.

That's what I see with my eyes.



Also note the board low level spin (oval shaped) from 16-20N, 50-55W slowly rotating on it's axis. The tighter llc is at the northeast corner of this which will mean that it may have a hard time consolidating into a single tight core in the short term at least until this much boarder circulation wraps more circularly around the core. Conditions do continue to look better longer term though.
This "Low-rider" is down to 1002 mb. For this Atlantic season that is substantial.
The 00z GFS is shows a low rider, tropical storm approaching the Windward Islands in 8 days, actually looks to take it right over T&T this run.



Not common to see a storm that far south. GFS are you serious? 8-10 days away though...
CMC

This might become Matthew

Quoting 223. CaribBoy:



Not common to see a storm that far south. GFS are you serious? 8-10 days away though...
That's a serious low rider.. Seems like the windwards maybe in play come next week...
It would take some anomalous ridging to push a storm that far south, especially going into October.

1933 Trinidad Hurricane:



I wouldn't be surprised in the subsequent runs it shows it gaining more latitude or it could drop entirely and just be one of those false alarms. Will be interested to see what the other models are saying tonight. The system the GFS develops seems to be over Benin and Togo. Wonder if it already has a low pressure attached to it?

228. SLU
This is a potential analog for the proposed SE Caribbean storm on the GFS. Very unusually southerly track but not unprecedented.



I don't think it's necessarily the wisest decision to writ off a US landfall for Karl, especially if it's turn is nearly a week out. Last I checked there were a lot of variables, more so than normal, that would determine its track/turn, many of which the forecast models have had trouble predicting in the past. The risks of being overly cautious are far outweighed by those of of putting too much trust into imperfect systems and models. And with how unprepared and complacent people in states like Florida have become, we're potentially looking at a dangerous situation, if not this season, than soon. As they say, prepare for the worst, pray for the best.
231. ackee
Quoting 228. SLU:

This is a potential analog for the proposed SE Caribbean storm on the GFS. Very unusually southerly track but not unprecedented.




agree could we see a Ivan like part two track long time out the GFS thow have been hinting at something like this week's now let's see what the Euro will show
CMC shows it, but moves it a lot slower. It also shows a mother of a ridge building in behind a cold front across the northern tier of the U.S. #HighPressureDoom.



233. IDTH
Quoting 232. GTstormChaserCaleb:

CMC shows it, but moves it a lot slower. It also shows a mother of a ridge building in behind a cold front across the northern tier of the U.S. #HighPressureDoom.





The great wall of ridge.
Quoting 228. SLU:

This is a potential analog for the proposed SE Caribbean storm on the GFS. Very unusually southerly track but not unprecedented.









See, I told you. It's drawing a bead on Florida.

Malakas raking southern Japan, moving into the westerlies.
Quoting 218. swflurker:

Well, my 18-9-5 prediction may only pan out if the rest of the season can produce some majors toward the end. Doesn't look to bad so far.


Even in an inactive season , it only takes one major landfall to cause tragedy, ie Andrew 1992
Hmm. Yep..... Andrew went just south of us here in Naples.
Wilma was a different story. And if you want to start talking about 2004, well the blog would crash!

Quoting 236. MJ0ZS4:



Even in an inactive season , it only takes one major landfall to cause tragedy, ie Andrew 1992
I'm continuing to watch the SE coast right now through this week; Lots of troughiness and have seen it before.
Quoting 225. Grothar:

This might become Matthew




Even the one on the top has a chance.
The global warming is considered one of the cause of changes in weather every year. The hurricanes and typhoons are causing too much damage in some countries. With the global warming, the temperature in summer is increasing every year. I wonder how the weather would be in the next five years?
looks like matthew, and Nicole are down the road on models I saw this morning. and they are south.
Quoting 242. markot:

looks like matthew, and Nicole are down the road on models I saw this morning. and they are south.
How far south ?
Quoting 240. Uragani:



Even the one on the top has a chance.

what do you mean by the one on the top?
Quoting 233. IDTH:


The great wall of ridge.
I have noticed the GFS takes the system very far south.. Is that possible this time of the year?
Way out in time but............................................... ...........................................
Karl the Kanker. Crazy little guy, can't make up its mind.
Quoting 242. markot:

looks like matthew, and Nicole are down the road on models I saw this morning. and they are south.
You guys should watch yesterdays report on Hurricanetrack.com with Mark Suddath. Towards the end he talks a lot about how he thinks the storms coming off of Africa will start trending further south
Quoting 247. HurricaneAndre:

Karl the K*****r. Crazy little guy, can't make up its mind.

Please change the word I have highlighted. It's very offensive.
Julia giving us one last little "cute" show of itself... well played, for seemingly never having a chance.

The actual center still seems to have Morehead City surrounded.

Link

Jo
251. MahFL
Quoting 213. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Karl should do well overnight,


Well he did not, and looks terrible this am.
scenario..350hr....scary.potential
Quoting 153. georgevandenberghe:



A Cat 5 would destroy my house. What I describe was a nerve racking inconvenience.
I don't wish that on you or anyone, but my house will survive a Cat 5, and I really hate the Ice and cold, especially with no power for a couple weeks.
loduck that's what I said they will be coming off further south said it before he did.
WILMINGTON NC NWS EXERPT

Notice Julias ghost wont leave

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...A `captivating` synoptic pattern in store
as an evolving cut-off upper low over South Carolina clearly
depicted in the water vapor channel this morning, ensnares Julia`s
surface low over Cape Lookout today, and pulls her back to closer
to Cape Fear by daybreak on Wednesday. In doing such, and despite
the current intrusion of dry mid-level air, a resurgence of
precipitable water in excess of 2" will be yanked southwest into
the area later today and tonight.

And first mention of Karl


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Majority of this period will experience a
rather diffuse pressure pattern and relaxed gradient. Will attempt
to identify and use the best or predominate wind directions this
period. The exception will be during each afternoon thru early
evening nearshore, where a resultant wind boundary or sea breeze
should occur with se-s wind directions and speeds 10 to possibly
15 kt. The strength of the sea breeze circulation will depend how
warm inland temps reach during each aftn. Late Saturday night, a
cold front will be dropping down from the north and will be on the
doorsteps of the ILM coastal waters. It`s also noted that Tropical

Cyclone Karl will be making it`s hard right hand turn with Bermuda
on its mind.

I think that the mentioned is the front that will keep it offshore should Karl not make the break in the ridge. If everything happens as forecast.

Quoting 252. islander101010:

scenario..350hr....scary.potential
Ever been to Fantasyland before?
257. JRRP7



TD 13 - developing eye or dry spot? Guess the next frame will tell ...
[Edit: was just a dry spot :-)]


Entering Medi-Terrenean.
Quoting 252. islander101010:

scenario..350hr....scary.potential


350 hrs??? that's a long time, I might be dead by then, lol. I don't even buy green bananas anymore! ;-(
Though super typhoon Meranti is long gone, the first flyover pictures from the island of Itbayat have come in, this the dot on the map that was in the center of Meranti's eye. Interaksyon.com came up after a search for itbayat and typhoon. Given the winds in Meranti I expected nothing but matchsticks, but it seems that a fair number of structures are intact. A section of coastal bluff collapsed into the sea. Nothing I could find online regarding the status of the 3000 inhabitants and the food, water, electric, communications infrastructure on the island.
262. JRRP7
caugh caugh
Quoting 262. JRRP7:

caugh caugh

Was just about to post that.
I can't believe some of the comments on this blog....Levi where are you ? The season is far from over....Africa is still firing....SAL is decreasing and there's a mother of all ridges getting ready to do some major steering...it's not even October...it's just the law of averages and climatology that will eventually steer a big storm towards the US....it's been a long time for SEFL but trust me....there's a reason why they call U OF M THE HURRICANES.....
265. ackee
Models continues to show early October could be very interesting in the carribbean the GFS 6z run show 3 possible system in the carribbean euro and cmc show possible TD or Matthew if the Ridge is as strong as some of models show the windward Island and central American could be high risk
Quoting 265. ackee:

Models continues to show early October could be very interesting in the carribbean the GFS 6z run show 3 possible system in the carribbean euro and cmc show possible TD or Matthew if the Ridge is as strong as some of models show the windward Island and central American could be high risk
Seems like the windward islands may get hit come the end of September..
Strange? Did anybody notice the yellow x that the NHC site had up for a special 7:40 am advisory, maybe a 200 to 250 miles north of Hisponola? In the wording it was suppose to move west-northwest or northwest towards the CONUS. It was there at that time, but when I checked back at 8 am it wasn't there. Was it a TYPO. Or is it that it hasn't been loaded on their site yet?
Quoting 251. MahFL:



Well he did not, and looks terrible this am.


An absolute mess lol, but he will get going as I said a couple days ago the best opportunity will be past 60W.
269. MahFL
Karl moving more west than wnw....
Good Morning; looks like TD13 (pending TS downstream) is headed into the Central Atlantic..............A good thing.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


And don't look now but....................................(Please don't tell me this is the ghost of Julia)..................



Northeast sector loop



Quoting 270. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; looks like TD13 (pending TS downstream) is headed into the Central Atlantic..............A good thing.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]






you have storm 96L model runs


you need TD 13 model runs




there fixed it for you
Was just going to say the same thing. Just notice it.
Quoting 269. MahFL:

Karl moving more west than wnw....
Quoting 272. thetwilightzone:




you have storm 96L model runs


you need TD 13 model runs




there fixed it for you


Thanks.

Pretty respectable consensus on the 06z GFS ensembles about the Caribbean low-rider storm that the operational run keeps hinting at 180-192 hours out.

Long period swells should start reaching ILM waters roughly Saturday. Would be great if Karl would run the gap between Cape Fear and Bermuda without significantly affecting land. Win win.

Quoting 255. K8eCane:

WILMINGTON NC NWS EXERPT

Notice Julias ghost wont leave

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...A `captivating` synoptic pattern in store
as an evolving cut-off upper low over South Carolina clearly
depicted in the water vapor channel this morning, ensnares Julia`s
surface low over Cape Lookout today, and pulls her back to closer
to Cape Fear by daybreak on Wednesday. In doing such, and despite
the current intrusion of dry mid-level air, a resurgence of
precipitable water in excess of 2" will be yanked southwest into
the area later today and tonight.

And first mention of Karl


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Majority of this period will experience a
rather diffuse pressure pattern and relaxed gradient. Will attempt
to identify and use the best or predominate wind directions this
period. The exception will be during each afternoon thru early
evening nearshore, where a resultant wind boundary or sea breeze
should occur with se-s wind directions and speeds 10 to possibly
15 kt. The strength of the sea breeze circulation will depend how
warm inland temps reach during each aftn. Late Saturday night, a
cold front will be dropping down from the north and will be on the
doorsteps of the ILM coastal waters. It`s also noted that Tropical

Cyclone Karl will be making it`s hard right hand turn with Bermuda
on its mind.

I think that the mentioned is the front that will keep it offshore should Karl not make the break in the ridge. If everything happens as forecast.
Remnant lows are great for rainy days

Quoting 269. MahFL:

Karl moving more west than wnw....


Any subtle movements could have an implication on impacting Bermuda.
Quoting 274. weathermanwannabe:



Thanks.




welcome
Indeed, looks like we have real trouble brewing heading into October. Buckle up.

Quoting 270. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; looks like TD13 (pending TS downstream) is headed into the Central Atlantic..............A good thing.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]



TD13 is the best looking system out in the Atlantic at the moment until it starts to gain some latitude towards cooler SSTs and higher sheer starting around 20N which is why the forecast is on the low end in terms of intensity downstream:



Quoting 246. LargoFl:

Way out in time but............................................... ...........................................

IF something like this pans out, I have a feeling we might get a stronger storm out of it. I don't trust anything that comes out of that area in October.
Both Karl and TD13 are being impacted by some shear which is why both systems looks rather lopsided this morning undergoing the same issues; titled circulations with the lower level coc outrunning the convective mid-levels being blown to the East.  If you look closely at the Karl clip below, the lower level coc was decoupled earlier but trying to make a comeback at 20N-54W. 
13


Karl



Where is the mjo currently?
Warning: some graphic photos included!
Huge cull of 250,000 reindeer by Christmas in Yamelo-Nenets after anthrax outbreak
Siberian Times, By Olga Gertcyk, 19 September 2016
Currently there are 730,000 animals but numbers are 'unsustainable', risking disease spreading and chronic overgrazing. ....
The proposal for a major cull follows two traumatic events to hit reindeer herds in Yamelo-Nenets in recent years.
Freak warm weather followed by a freeze in winter 2013-14 caused an ice-over of pastures which led to the deaths of some 70,000 reindeer in a famine. This summer, there was an outbreak of deadly anthrax after the hottest Arctic summer on record.
The 'zombie' disease frozen seven or more decades ago was awakened in the thawing permafrost, leading to the death of a boy, and 2,349 reindeer, plus at least four dogs. There were three separate outbreaks, but now there are warnings that large herd numbers can lead new cases of infection to rapidly spread.
'Reindeer livestock numbers in Yamal are too high,' said Nikolai Vlasov, deputy head of Rosselkhoznadzor, Russia's Federal Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance Service. ...
He said Yamal was 'reaching a dangerous milestone'. 'I base my conclusions on Soviet standards,' he said. 'Back then livestock was kept at the same number, 300,000-to-400,000 heads. Now there are 700,000 already.' ...
Anthropologist Olga Murashko has expressed concerns about the proposals. 'I am very worried about the fate of the private herders, who still perpetuate the tradition of family and clan based reindeer herding,' she said. 'Most of them have small herds of about a hundred deer.'
A speeding up of gas licensing also troubles her. 'The coincidence of this news on plans - to urgently reduce the reindeer population in Yamal by over one third with the rapid issuing of licenses for gas extraction in the same region - causes the greatest concern over the fate of the reindeer herders,' she said. ...

Whole article see link above.


Yamal province.
Quoting 282. SecretStormNerd:


IF something like this pans out, I have a feeling we might get a stronger storm out of it. I don't trust anything that comes out of that area in October.
yeah that area we always watch for storms in Oct.
And as noted below, it is possible that the model guidance will shift a little more to the West with Karl if it continues to struggle through the next 24 hours. I miss the old NOAA sat loops that actually depicted the storm tracks, on the loops in red, which made it easier to see how the storm was moving relative to the track guidance. In the case of Karls current track forecast, the naked coc is currently moving due West to the left of the current track guidance towards 54W right at 20N:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


looks like Karl is moving W and this S of the the NHC forecast points


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 19 SEPTEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-116

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A. MISSION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FOR 19/1800Z CANCELED
AT 19/1015Z.
B. THE G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM
KARL AT 20/1730Z.
C. THE P-3 WILL START RESEARCH MISSIONS EVERY 12 HOURS ON
KARL AT 20/1800Z



looks like today we get the 1st recon in too Karl then we can see whats really been going on with Karl
Guys / gals, what have we talked about long range forecast... what's the confidence level on those? Low.

Food for thought, good for banter, but low on reliability and actual usability...

I like to take my maps with a 2-3 day outlook TOPS.

Quoting 262. JRRP7:

caugh caugh

Link

They have activated a portal over SC. You can see it on here. Mean trick!
Quoting 267. NortheastGuy:

Strange? Did anybody notice the yellow x that the NHC site had up for a special 7:40 am advisory, maybe a 200 to 250 miles north of Hisponola? In the wording it was suppose to move west-northwest or northwest towards the CONUS. It was there at that time, but when I checked back at 8 am it wasn't there. Was it a TYPO. Or is it that it hasn't been loaded on their site yet?


I saw that as well and the five day outlook had an orange x and a hatched area as well then POOF gone glad I wasn't seeing things. It felt like it pulled a cached image up at first but the words reflected the graphic.
Quoting 206.Pureet:
Fish



Quoting 212. thetwilightzone:



it will not be a fish if hits Bermuda
We should make this comment/quote a drinking game... imo
Quoting 276. HaoleboySurfEC:

Long period swells should start reaching ILM waters roughly Saturday. Would be great if Karl would run the gap between Cape Fear and Bermuda without significantly affecting land. Win win.




This is from NWS

Significant seas will run 3 to 4 ft Fri thru Sat with the
majority of it coming from a ground swell at 10 to 12 second
periods generated by distant Hurricane Karl. This illustrated by
the latest Wavewatch3 and locally run Swan models. Will see
afternoon wind chop on-top of this swell.
Quoting 241. ClaireAnderson:

The global warming is considered one of the cause of changes in weather every year. The hurricanes and typhoons are causing too much damage in some countries. With the global warming, the temperature in summer is increasing every year. I wonder how the weather would be in the next five years?
Hello Claire (I've always like the name Claire for some reason?). I would agree with your comment and as first comments on the blog go I'd say well done.
Quoting 271. weathermanwannabe:

And don't look now but....................................(Please don't tell me this is the ghost of Julia)..................



Northeast sector loop





This Is The Ghost Of Julia. One Of Them.
Quoting 287. weathermanwannabe:

And as noted below, it is possible that the model guidance will shift a little more to the West with Karl if it continues to struggle through the next 24 hours. I miss the old NOAA sat loops that actually depicted the storm tracks, on the loops in red, which made it easier to see how the storm was moving relative to the track guidance. In the case of Karls current track forecast, the naked coc is currently moving due West to the left of the current track guidance towards 54W right at 20N:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]





Flash and HTML 5 still have forecast points as an option.
Quoting 275. CybrTeddy:

Pretty respectable consensus on the 06z GFS ensembles about the Caribbean low-rider storm that the operational run keeps hinting at 180-192 hours out.




It may not stay a "Caribbean Low Rider" for long. GEFS has shifted north.
Quoting 292. JNFlori30A:


We should make this comment/quote a drinking game... imo

Every time someone says the word FISH take a drink or for every map posted out over a week ;)
Quoting 295. K8eCane:



There is no ghost. She lives!!

Anyone else having problems loading random NWS Offices? I tried loading Norman OK and get 400 bad request.
Quoting 287. weathermanwannabe:

And as noted below, it is possible that the model guidance will shift a little more to the West with Karl if it continues to struggle through the next 24 hours. I miss the old NOAA sat loops that actually depicted the storm tracks, on the loops in red, which made it easier to see how the storm was moving relative to the track guidance. In the case of Karls current track forecast, the naked coc is currently moving due West to the left of the current track guidance towards 54W right at 20N:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]





Looks like as of 9:45am est it could have dipped all the way down to around 19.9N which would be around .7 or .8 degrees south of forecast, which isn't disastrous but I think Bermuda if it does not rebound north today will be on the bad side.
Quoting 302. Grothar:



There is no ghost. She lives!!





you are risking assassination lol
Quoting 253. NativeSun:

I don't wish that on you or anyone, but my house will survive a Cat 5, and I really hate the Ice and cold, especially with no power for a couple weeks.


I have gas heat which is useless without power but I also have a woodstove which heats the back half of the house
and will carry the entire house in an emergency. Very few houses in this area would survive a cat 5 either because building codes don't require it or because, even a very well built house can be destroyed by an enormous tree falling on it and this area has many many huge ones. Cat 5 is probably never in the cards for the DC metro area but we are at risk for up to EF4 tornadoes which would also level my house.
An odd trend I have noticed with Karl is that its convective cycle seems to be backwards. DMAX for it seems to occur at sunset and DMIN for it seems to occur at sunrise.
Quoting 307. HurricaneFan:

An odd trend I have noticed with Karl is that its convective cycle seems to be backwards. DMAX for it seems to occur at sunset and DMIN for it seems to occur at sunrise.


It's unusual, but for tropical cyclones, D-MAX is night, and D-MIN is day. Strange, I know
Seems like a new burst of convection is going on near the COC.
310. bwi
DC area -- gobs of humidity, but not much rain
311. MahFL
The shear maps seem to be under doing the shear on Karl, visible images show way more than 10/15 kts of shear affecting Karl.
Quoting 300. George1938:


Every time someone says the word FISH take a drink or for every map posted out over a week ;)

CariBoy will be wasted by 2pm.
I posted this last night. This system could very well be Matthew. Since it is at very low latitude, it is something to watch carefully. For the next week, the high pressure is forecast to be very strong, which would indicate that any system would most likely remain a low rider and move more west. Probably more than any other system.

314. MahFL
Quoting 287. weathermanwannabe:

...I miss the old NOAA sat loops that actually depicted the storm tracks, on the loops in red, which made it easier to see how the storm was moving relative to the track guidance...


Use this link, and select "fcst pts":

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flas h-vis-short.html
315. MahFL
Quoting 309. HurricaneFan:

Seems like a new burst of convection is going on near the COC.



It's being sheared away though.

Yes Gro is right about a serious problem down the road. The ensembles are hinting a storm near the islands by next week.
Some future GFS scenarios. (And tell Taz I saw these first!)




Quoting 316. bigwes6844:

Yes Gro is right about a serious problem down the road. The ensembles are hinting a storm near the islands by next week.

Windwards or leewards islands ?
The westward drift as noted below will give Karl a better chance at a good swipe at Bermuda once it starts the turn to the NW.................Almost at 55W now:




yes what happened to the yellow x that system looks to be moving west toward Bahamas and fl. could be sumthin in a few days. and matthew and nicole down the road.
321. ackee
Poll time as of September 19 we have seen 12 names storm some invest etc which model as perform the best ?

A GFS
B Euro
C CmC
D HWRF
E UKMET


It's ALIVE
Any promise to the disturbance in the GOM SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi?
Tropical Storm Lisa has formed in the Atlantic. The 12th named storm of the year. Our season totals are 12-4-1
Quoting 322. PedleyCA:



It's ALIVE


Got an eye or a dry slot too. Look at that !! :-P
326. JRRP7
Quoting 313. Grothar:

I posted this last night. This system could very well be Matthew. Since it is at very low latitude, it is something to watch carefully. For the next week, the high pressure is forecast to be very strong, which would indicate that any system would most likely remain a low rider and move more west. Probably more than any other system.



maybe it will stay weak until 55w or 60w...and then it will may gain some latitude
imo
Quoting 324. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Tropical Storm Lisa has formed in the Atlantic. The 12th named storm of the year. Our season totals are 12-4-1


Nice couple!
Quoting 317. Grothar:

Some future GFS scenarios. (And tell Taz I saw these first!)







And because you already posted it, there's no reason for anyone to ever post it again. If they do they get the "old news" or "it's already been posted" message.

That's an inside joke for the regulars of the blog that know what I'm talking about.
I don't mind someone posting the same map a little later on a new page. Lots of people don't go back and check every page of a blog.
Quoting 313. Grothar:

I posted this last night. This system could very well be Matthew. Since it is at very low latitude, it is something to watch carefully. For the next week, the high pressure is forecast to be very strong, which would indicate that any system would most likely remain a low rider and move more west. Probably more than any other system.




But when it gets near the islands I hope it turns NW :)
Quoting 316. bigwes6844:

Yes Gro is right about a serious problem down the road. The ensembles are hinting a storm near the islands by next week.



If it looks like Karl currently does.... it won't be a big deal. And may even disappoint...
Just as Karl was getting it together, he increased his forward speed and into higher shear. Good news for Bermuda, as the longer it takes to strengthen, the weaker it may be. Unless of course it undergoes rapid intensification at some point.

Wind shear should fall over Karl for the next day or so, as long as he doesn't decide to increase forward speed once again. SSTs will be 28.5C and warming to near 30C over the next 3-4 days. Humidity levels should rise to near 60%, which should help a lot.



Will have to keep an eye on Karl tonight, with windshear forecast to become around ~10kts, humidity levels up and SSTs of ~29C.

Interesting to see we have Lisa now as well! Looks like it'll become a moderate-strong TS:



Lastly, interesting to see a possible low rider on the cards in the next week. The Euro has some vorticity in about 8-9 days and the GFS ensembles are quite "excited" about the possibility. It's been moving up in time so it doesn't appear to be one of those ghost storms that is constantly shown at 240 hours. Especially with the Grothar model on board, it's worth watching closely.
the wave that the models are hinting of development is reminicent of Flora of September 1963.
A track like the ECMWF shows is fine.
Quoting 327. barbamz:



Nice couple!


My evil twin will only be a fish storm....
Looks like we need a calabash tree report:) For reference, in the 10 day forecast for S C IL, very warm end to summer & start to fall, but dew pts drop into the lower 60s by weekend, then 50s to start next week as we go back to normal low/mid 50s lows with mid 70s highs, and dry thru period with rain chance showing up at the end.

Corn coming out like crazy, even some beans already. Really haven't heard yet how doing bu/acre wise, but suspect pretty well.
Nola TDRW
225 nm range


I think the nhc. Said some in about a sub or tropical storm could form by Friday
I was going to say the exact same thing today, was waiting on afternoon model runs to see what the pattern may look like.

HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp
All indications are that high pressure may try to establish itself end of Sept/early Oct. Any TC may go more West…
Quoting 331. Envoirment:

Just as Karl was getting it together, he increased his forward speed and into higher shear. Good news for Bermuda, as the longer it takes to strengthen, the weaker it may be. Unless of course it undergoes rapid intensification at some point.

Wind shear should fall over Karl for the next day or so, as long as he doesn't decide to increase forward speed once again. SSTs will be 28.5C and warming to near 30C over the 3-4 days. Humidity levels should rise to near 60%, which should help a lot.



Will have to keep an eye on Karl tonight, with windshear forecast to become around ~10kts, humidity levels up and SSTs of ~29C.

Interesting to see we have Lisa now as well! Looks like it'll become a moderate-strong TS:



Lastly, interesting to see a possible low rider on the cards in the next week. The Euro has some vorticity in about 8-9 days and the GFS ensembles are quite "excited" about the possibility. It's been moving up in time so it doesn't appear to be one of those ghost storms that is constantly shown at 240 hours. Especially with the Grothar model on board, it's worth watching closely.

Lisa is better looking than Karl right now.
Quoting 327. barbamz:



Nice couple!

I think future Mr Matthew will have something to say about that lol
Quoting 340. bigwes6844:


Lisa is better looking than Karl right now.


O I would hope so.

Good catch Pat. A spinner in the gom?
We may see more African waves develop now through the first couple weeks of October, there is a somewhat favorable cool over warm signature in the MDR. We have to be watchful because I think these waves will go further west with more ridging to be in place. Homegrown storms from fronts dipping down this time of the year is another thing to watch. Southeast coast and West Carribean may be a spot to watch with the pattern shaping up the way it is as well as the next wave coming off Africa that the GFS ensembles are latching onto.
Just when things are getting good I will have to leave. But Karl did lose .2 degrees Lat between 5am and 11am looking at the satellite from 1145am it looks like it drifted just under 20N. Don't take this prediction as something serious because I only tested this thought on two storms before then kinda forgetting about it because it was to time consuming. The burst to the SE of the center. When that dissolves when the center is between 50 and 51W(I said to 55 originally because I'm a dillop) it will continue making its northward drift. It was supposed to be a mini sub version of the Fujiwhara Effect on weaker systems under 60kts.
Fun fact that is the 1st L storm in 2 years
Quoting 345. WeatherkidJoe2323:

We may see more African waves develop now through the first couple weeks of October, there is a somewhat favorable cool over warm signature in the MDR. We have to be watchful because I think these waves will go further west with more ridging to be in place. Homegrown storms from fronts dipping down this time of the year is another thing to watch. Southeast coast and West Carribean may be a spot to watch with the pattern shaping up the way it is as well as the next wave coming off Africa that the GFS ensembles are latching onto.


Starting too wounder if we will used all of are named storms on the list ? If we get the. M storm by Friday has the nhc said we could see a sub or tropical storm from by Friday the. We could see one or two more storms after words wish would be N and O storms
349. JRRP7
Quoting 344. PensacolaDoug:

Good catch Pat. A spinner in the gom?



Its a reflection of Old 92L.


The continental air flowing into it from here is a hindrance...to development, but it sure is well defined.

I actually gave it last rights yesterday.


Going to see what local nws boys are saying abou it.


Nothing from the nws about it.


But the long range is absolutely fantastic!

&

Previous discussion... /issued 332 am CDT Tuesday Sep 20 2016/

Short term...it was another very quiet night night over the region.
Radar was clear of any echoes and skies were practically clear.

The next few days will be rather quiet however it will feel much
more tolerable thanks to drier air working in behind a backdoor cold
front. Dewpoints will continue to fall through the day and could
drop into the upper 50s across nrn portions of the County Warning Area (mainly
southwestern and south-central ms). As had been mentioned the last
few days afternoon highs will not be any cooler. Ridging aloft and
rather warm low-level temps will continue to push the highs in the
lower to mid 90s but with humidity values much lower than the
previous few days(heck previous few months at that) it will feel far
more tolerable. The most noticeable difference will be morning lows
tomorrow. High pressure aloft along with a dry airmass (pws near
1.25" or lower) will lead to mostly clear skies overnight. Combine
that with dewpoints in the 60s and high pressure at the sfc and
morning lows will be the coolest we have seen since early June for
many locations.

High pressure will remain in control aloft through the week. This
will lead to a continued dry forecast for the most part but isolated
showers and thunderstorm may begin to return Fri. This is in
response to the ridge becoming more centered a little more to the
north and return flow in the low levels increasing moisture over
the region. /Cab/

Long term...the forecast becomes tricky as we move into the weekend
but more so next week. Latest model solutions continue to back off
of the strong cold front that they were advertising about 36-72 hrs
ago. Again this very much could be that the main jet core and
associated low is out of the upper air network in the Pacific, the
main jet is located south of the korean peninsula while the low is
in the Bering Sea. Difficult on how to lean with this. On one hand
as previous forecaster mentioned we are moving into late Sep which
is usually the time we get one of these cold fronts. However, the
ridge has been quite stubborn over the region and models have tried
to break it down too fast all Summer long. Suffice to say confidence
is low in the forecast. Will lean to a slower forecast with approach
to the cold front but will not get rid of it yet (as is the case
with the gfs).

The main protagonist to our forecast is the approach of that strong
jet coming across the pac. A l/W tough will move onshore late this
week and work over The Rockies as we head into the weekend. This
will amplify the pattern across the Continental U.S. With the ridge dominating
the lower MS valley and sern Continental U.S.. conditions will likely remain
fairly quiet Sat but isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection
will be possible; the better chance for rain will be Sunday as the
l/W trough slowly progresses into the plains states while the ridge
gets pinched b/T it and another large l/W trough over the mid
Atlantic and northeast states. As the trough moves into/across the
plains it will become increasingly more positively tilted and with
that the cold front will hang back but could begin sliding through
the arklatex early next week and possibly into the lower MS
valley(maybe tue? Fingers crossed). /Cab/

352. JRRP7
Quoting 346. George1938:

Just when things are getting good I will have to leave. But Karl did lose .2 degrees Lat between 5am and 11am looking at the satellite from 1145am it looks like it drifted just under 20N. Don't take this prediction as something serious because I only tested this thought on two storms before then kinda forgetting about it because it was to time consuming. The burst to the SE of the center. When that dissolves when the center is between 50 and 51W(I said to 55 originally because I'm a dillop) it will continue making its northward drift. It was supposed to be a mini sub version of the Fujiwhara Effect on weaker systems under 60kts.

I meant 55 and 56 OUT
To say it was a bust season to a lot of folks, we dont have that many names to go until we see the Greek alphabet.


HURRICANE NAMES
ATLANTIC TROPICAL (AND SUBTROPICAL) STORM NAMES FOR 2016
Alex Hermine Otto
Bonnie Ian Paula
Colin Julia Richard
Danielle Karl Shary
Earl Lisa Tobias
Fiona Matthew Virginie
Gaston Nicole Walter
Quoting 225. Grothar:

This might become Matthew


And maybe even Mighty Matthew:)
The GROWRF MODEL. (Joking only)

Quoting 345. WeatherkidJoe2323:

We may see more African waves develop now through the first couple weeks of October, there is a somewhat favorable cool over warm signature in the MDR. We have to be watchful because I think these waves will go further west with more ridging to be in place. Homegrown storms from fronts dipping down this time of the year is another thing to watch. Southeast coast and West Carribean may be a spot to watch with the pattern shaping up the way it is as well as the next wave coming off Africa that the GFS ensembles are latching onto.

I think our CV season is a little behind schedule this year, which means that I think we could keep getting MDR storms into early October. I read somewhere that the African wave peak was a few weeks later than normal this year.

Although the season's storms have been mostly weak we are well above normal in terms of named storms. I think we will probably finish the season around Paula which would be 16 named storms.
Interesting in the news about the Colonial gas pipeline rupture that had occurred and that there is currently a supply squeeze hitting the eastern seaboard. Looks like they will have a temporary fix coming shortly to alleviate the shortage. Could you imagine though if we had this happen when a major hurricane were approaching the East Coast? All those people hitting the highways trying to flee out of harms way and going to the gas station to fill up when there is little gas to go around to begin with... yikes!! People stranded on highways when a major hurricane is coming, not good, I think that sort of happened with Rita in 2005?? Anyway, the east coast was very, very blessed that the timing of that did not happen.

As for Karl... hmpf.. still not totally sold on that extreme curve yet because the ULL to west of it seems to be dropping more south, it is now the same latitude as Karl. If it drops further South, wouldn't Karl be pulled more to the west than forecast?? Well, just to have to wait and see.

Quoting 254. markot:

loduck that's what I said they will be coming off further south said it before he did.
Well, I don't know who said it first. I just thought you might be interested because your line of thinking was similar
I hate the fish storms. I hate the low riders. And I hate the 12z GFS
A storm going into Trinidad, come on!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Wow! Where is Pottery? Looks like even the north coast of Guyana may get in on the action. Then Venezuela and the ABC Islands. Places that rarely see tropical storms or hurricanes.

CMC doesn't like the low riders. Dropped development.
Quoting 260. pingon:



350 hrs??? that's a long time, I might be dead by then, lol. I don't even buy green bananas anymore! ;-(
omg! too funny :)))))
Quoting 333. CaribBoy:

A track like the ECMWF shows is fine.

Hoping to dance your happy dance?
Quoting 317. Grothar:

Some future GFS scenarios. (And tell Taz I saw these first!)







You seen nothing 1st I did
Quoting 321. ackee:

Poll time as of September 19 we have seen 12 names storm some invest etc which model as perform the best ?

A GFS
B Euro
C CmC
D HWRF
E UKMET


F. The Grothar Model
Quoting 360. CaribBoy:

I hate the fish storms. I hate the low riders. And I hate the 12z GFS
Dang! You just hate about everything!!
Quoting 306. georgevandenberghe:



I have gas heat which is useless without power but I also have a woodstove which heats the back half of the house
and will carry the entire house in an emergency. Very few houses in this area would survive a cat 5 either because building codes don't require it or because, even a very well built house can be destroyed by an enormous tree falling on it and this area has many many huge ones. Cat 5 is probably never in the cards for the DC metro area but we are at risk for up to EF4 tornadoes which would also level my house.
EF 4 tornado's would level most homes, we built the house with reinforced concrete walls, and a concrete roof, clay tiles on top, and all impact doors and windows. Garage doors are reinforced and are suppose to be able to withstand sustained cat 5 winds according to our structural engineer. Only thing we mind lose are the roof tiles, but they are cosmetic anyway.