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La Niña weaker; may be gone by summer

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:03 PM GMT on February 15, 2011

A significant shift is occurring in the Equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific off the coast of South America, where the tell-tale signs of the end to the current La Niña event are beginning to show up. A borderline moderate/strong La Niña event has been underway since last summer, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) about 1.5°C below average over a wide stretch of the Equatorial Pacific. These cool SSTs have altered the course of the jet stream and have had major impacts on the global atmosphere. The La Niña has been partially responsible for some of the extreme flooding events in recent months, such as the floods in Australia, Sri Lanka, and Colombia. La Niña is also largely to blame for the expanding drought over the southern states of the U.S. But in the last few weeks, SSTs in the Equatorial Pacific have undergone a modest warm-up, and these temperatures are now about 1.2°C below average. A region of above-average warmth has appeared immediately adjacent to the coast of South America--often a harbinger of the end to a La Niña event. An animation of SSTs since late November shows this developing warm tongue nicely. Springtime is the most common time for a La Niña event to end; since 1950, half of all La Niñas ended in March, April, or May. The weakness displayed by the current La Niña event has prompted NOAA's Climate Predictions Center to give a 50% chance that La Niña will be gone by June. If La Niña does rapidly wane, this should help reduce the chances for a continuation of the period of high-impact floods and droughts that have the affected the world in recent months.


Figure 1. A comparison of the the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between this week and two months ago shows that a tongue of warmer-than-average waters has appeared off the coast of South America, possibly signaling the beginning of the end of the current La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

What does this mean for hurricane season?
As many of you know, the phase of the El Niño/La Niña is critical for determining how active the Atlantic hurricane season is. La Niña or neutral conditions promote very active Atlantic hurricane seasons, while El Niños sharply reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear. Will the probable demise of La Niña this spring allow an El Niño to take its place by this fall? Well, don't get your hopes up. Since 1950, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center records that there have been sixteen La Niña events during February (26% of all years.) In half of those years, La Niña was still active during the August - September - October peak of Atlantic hurricane season, six (38%) transitioned to neutral conditions, and only two (12%) made it all the way to El Niño. So historically, the odds do not favor a transition to El Niño by hurricane season. The latest set of computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña (Figure 2) also reflect this. Only two of the sixteen models predict El Niño conditions by hurricane season.


Figure 2. Predictions made in January 2011 of the evolution of El Niño/La Niña over the coming year shows that only two of the sixteen models predict El Niño conditions by hurricane season, while four predict La Niña and ten predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University IRI.

I'll have a new post by Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

495 I dont know if it goes for that. Do you know?

In FY 06, Accounts Payable made some 13.7 million invoice payments, totaling disbursements of $299.4 billion.

300 billion is to contractors.
FYI, Bartlesville, Oklahoma is at 68 degrees right now--99 degrees above where it was last Thursday morning. Now that's what I'd call a nice warm-up...
Quoting Patrap:
I was being rhetorical VA..

Im well aware of Our Fleets roles and Capabilities,..


Its all good.

Semper Fi.


I figured pat, my dad's been to so many countries for medical aid i can't even count haha
Quoting JFLORIDA:
So since then even at that rate (which is lower than it actually is now) contractors have received 1.2 trillion dollars.

Did that protect my freedom? Does the patriot act thats about to be reauthorized? I wont fly because of enhanced body searches now as a matter of principle.


you say that until the first weapon or bomb is found because of those, then what?
1.2 trillion dollars. For what? Can you point to a situation that is better. Where freedom was actually extended.

The Egyptian government that was overthrown was receiving about 2 billion a year in mixed military aid and it was a corrupt dictatorship.
is there a way to go directly to the classic format. the new format is close to useless.
is this blog about La Nina?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Amazing that they weren't already using a global ocean model for a CLIMATE forecasting system...


That's not what it said. It said it was upgrading the ocean model to using MOM4, which is a dedicated higher res ocean modeling system.

Every "blessed" climate model I'm aware of includes at least a rudimentary ocean model, even if it just a "swamp" ocean model. Even low res climate models such as GISS's ModelE contain multiple different ocean models, and it's had that capability for quite some time.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you say that until the first weapon or bomb is found because of those, then what?


Then we arrest the bomber. Generally killing people is thought of as illegal and is a criminal act. Who was behind 9/11 again?

What happened to him.

Anyway lets get back to climate science. I don't like political discussion in here.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Then we arrest the bomber. Generally killing people is thought of as illegal and is a criminal act. Who was behind 9/11 again?



Saudis and Egyptians, all i'm saying is that everyone will be against it until they prevent a bomb or weapon on board and it'll be seen as a lifesaver.
516. xcool


BoM Subsurface Pacific Ocean Equatorial Average Temperature and Anomolies at 150 Meters
Quoting JFLORIDA:
1.2 trillion dollars. For what? Can you point to a situation that is better. Where freedom was actually extended.

The Egyptian government that was overthrown was receiving about 2 billion a year in mixed military aid and it was a corrupt dictatorship.


Hmm, 2 billion a yr, 30 yrs in power, 50 billion dollar net worth. Yep, Mubarak was keeping it all.
Xyrus:

Did you try that experiment yet?

Infrared remote control works for all functions through 4 inches of water and 2 walls of glass in a quart jar.

Seeing as how you claim water absorbs this spectra, I would like to hear your explanation of why this works.
Quoting MrMixon:
I'm not sure why, but this link crashed my browser.  Do I need to run a virus scan?  Is this legit?






This is legit. I have it open right now and am reading it again.
Well at least we know what the weather next week in Boca will be like.

LOL
yep...
Quoting Patrap:
TSA searches are moot as we know that access to the Tarmac and Planes is easily circumvented thru Paths not covered by secure means.

Food service,Baggage Handlers and others are less scrutinized in Hiring than many would like to think.

The Concourse isnt the only route to getting a Device on Board.

But the Impression for the Public is well preserved.

When was the last time anywhere a device was found from a TSA checkpoint?

Other than a Bic Lighter or a T-gel Bottle that was oversized?





They have sure relieved me of a pocket knife collection. It was confiscated to protect my freedom.
Quoting Patrap:
TSA searches are moot as we know that access to the Tarmac and Planes is easily circumvented thru Paths not covered by secure means.

Food service,Baggage Handlers and others are less scrutinized in Hiring than many would like to think.

The Concourse isnt the only route to getting a Device on Board.

But the Impression for the Public is well preserved.

When was the last time anywhere a device was found from a TSA checkpoint?

Other than a Bic Lighter or a T-gel Bottle that was oversized?











Pat what would stop one from after going through the metal detectors getting a knife from one of the restaurant? its insane how easy it truly could be... tis like the detectors are for peace of mind.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Then we arrest the bomber. Generally killing people is thought of as illegal and is a criminal act. Who was behind 9/11 again?

What happened to him.

Anyway lets get back to climate science. I don't like political discussion in here.


you cant really be saying that you are okay with risking thousands of innocent lives as long as due process is followed are you?
This post way down the page started this thread and for the life of me,,can someone tell us whom the House is Ruled by now..say,like in the Majority?

Tan comes to mind.


House Fiscal 11 Budget Proposal Could Devastate the National Weather Service's Life-Saving Warnings and Forecasts


WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As hurricane and tornado seasons approach, funding for the NWS will be nearly 30 percent less than the first half of 2011, if the Continuing Resolution proposed by the House majority is enacted. Congress's move will necessitate work furloughs and force rolling closures of Weather Warning Offices across the country. The effects will be felt in every aspect of daily life, including emergency management, television weather, and information used by our nation's citizens for transportation, commerce and agriculture.

The National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center, the Aviation Weather Center, the Tsunami Warning Centers, River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices located in communities across the nation are all victims of Congress's budget cut.

"When the budget blade drops on the NWS, it will be felt around the country," said NWSEO President Dan Sobien. "In the next hurricane, flood, tornado or wildfire, lives will be lost and people will ask what went wrong. Congress's cuts and the devastation to the wellbeing of our nation's citizens are dangerously wrong."
Quoting Cochise111:


What is posted on her site is the actual request for a government audit in Australia of the BOM. She has nothing to do with the posting. She's just providing a service. Why don't you read it before you flip out.

Did you actually read it? it wasn't a mere "request for a government audit"; it's a very long indictment flush with conspiracy theories and baseless allegations of malfeasance, corruption, and general scientific incompetence. Or, as I said earlier, a witch hunt--exactly the kind of thing people like Nova must resort to, as the science just isn't going their way. And that's understandable, if not forgivable...

And as an aside to that bit of drama: the planet continues to warm.

P.S. -- Can you please define "flip out" for me?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Pat what would stop one from after going through the metal detectors getting a knife from one of the restaurant? its insane how easy it truly could be... tis like the detectors are for peace of mind.


They are, and for the companies who make the detectors/scanners.
Quoting Patrap:
This post way down the page started this thread and for the life of me,,can someone tell us whom the House is Ruled by now..say,like in the Majority?

Tan comes to mind.


House Fiscal 11 Budget Proposal Could Devastate the National Weather Service's Life-Saving Warnings and Forecasts


WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As hurricane and tornado seasons approach, funding for the NWS will be nearly 30 percent less than the first half of 2011, if the Continuing Resolution proposed by the House majority is enacted. Congress's move will necessitate work furloughs and force rolling closures of Weather Warning Offices across the country. The effects will be felt in every aspect of daily life, including emergency management, television weather, and information used by our nation's citizens for transportation, commerce and agriculture.

The National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center, the Aviation Weather Center, the Tsunami Warning Centers, River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices located in communities across the nation are all victims of Congress's budget cut.

"When the budget blade drops on the NWS, it will be felt around the country," said NWSEO President Dan Sobien. "In the next hurricane, flood, tornado or wildfire, lives will be lost and people will ask what went wrong. Congress's cuts and the devastation to the wellbeing of our nation's citizens are dangerously wrong."


They also just voted to cut spending on JSF-35 engines, they are cutting everywhere, true to their running stance
Intellicast has Bartlesville, Oklahoma at 69 degrees now--exactly 100 degrees warmer than it was a week ago today.

Pretty amazing...
Quoting Patrap:
TSA searches are moot as we know that access to the Tarmac and Planes is easily circumvented thru Paths not covered by secure means.

Food service,Baggage Handlers and others are less scrutinized in Hiring than many would like to think.

The Concourse isnt the only route to getting a Device on Board.

But the Impression for the Public is well preserved.

When was the last time anywhere a device was found from a TSA checkpoint?











It's called security theater, and it's been practiced by every government since antiquity in order to create a false sense of security while simultaneously justifying continued or expanded military spending by exaggerating or creating some external threat. Of course, the expenditures of security theater end up draining treasuries dry, along with expansive military spending.

In other words, what the US is going through is something that has happened many times before, to many historical powerful nations from the Roman Empire to the British Empire to the Soviet Union.

As Mark Twain said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.".
535. beell
Sure, let's just do away with the scanners and the searches. They serve no purpose at all.
Be sure to check the cubicle next to you as you leave work this evening.

Worker Dies at Cubicle, Found a Day Later
Feb 16, 2011 – 1:31 PM
Quoting Patrap:
TSA searches are moot as we know that access to the Tarmac and Planes is easily circumvented thru Paths not covered by secure means.

Food service,Baggage Handlers and others are less scrutinized in Hiring than many would like to think.

The Concourse isnt the only route to getting a Device on Board.

But the Impression for the Public is well preserved.

When was the last time anywhere a device was found from a TSA checkpoint?











If a terrorist knows they are going to lose their life in an attack then they aren't going to attempt an attack if they think they might get caught.

In their mindset, failing in the attempt would be a disgrace.

Therefore, they will attempt future terrorist actions in ways which are less protected, but also less accessible. There may still be "back doors" as you have outlined, but at least now we no longer let them walk in the front door.

You wont "catch" the terrorist this way, because even though they have a warped ideology, they are smart enough to realize they would be caught, and so do not attempt. However, this does not make the security measures useless, because without them there would be back to the way it was previously.


A "draw and counter" strategy would be too risky, because in the case of suicide attacks, there is nothing to counter, and the costs of failing to intercept the attack are too high, and this isn't NCIS or some other crime show where everything always works out and they always get the bad guy.
Quoting Patrap:
Be sure to check the cubicle next to you as you leave work this evening.

Worker Dies at Cubicle, Found a Day Later
Feb 16, 2011 – 1:31 PM


lol.... how could you not notice...
NASA | Earth Science Week: Climate Change & The Global Ocean


NASAexplorer | October 13, 2009

"Climate Change and The Global Ocean" is the first episode in the six-part series "Tides of Change", exploring amazing NASA ocean science to celebrate Earth Science Week 2009.



Quoting Xyrus2000:


That's not what it said. It said it was upgrading the ocean model to using MOM4, which is a dedicated higher res ocean modeling system.

Every "blessed" climate model I'm aware of includes at least a rudimentary ocean model, even if it just a "swamp" ocean model. Even low res climate models such as GISS's ModelE contain multiple different ocean models, and it's had that capability for quite some time.

"will be upgraded from the limited area GFDL MOM3 to the global
MOM4"

Not sure how that could be anything but a non-global ocean model to global ocean model upgrade.

"Limited area" doesn't at least imply that it isn't global? How could a global model be called "limited area"...
Quoting Patrap:
Be sure to check the cubicle next to you as you leave work this evening.

Worker Dies at Cubicle, Found a Day Later
Feb 16, 2011 – 1:31 PM
....and the other cubicle workers were envious.:^(
Quoting NavarreMark:


They took my spork too.
good for them! I'm sure you are a master of spork warfare.
NCEP getting back to normal.

NOUS42 KWNO 161958
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1955Z WED FEB 16 2011
THE 18Z NAM IS UNDERWAY AND RUNNING ON TIME..
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP


And looks good for the next cycles: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/i ndex.html#TARGET
Quoting Xyrus2000:


It's called security theater, and it's been practiced by every government since antiquity in order to create a false sense of security while simultaneously justifying continued or expanded military spending by exaggerating or creating some external threat.

Yes. It's something done to placate the gullible masses, and to allow them to feel safe. The fact of the matter is, there are literally thousands of ways a determined, creative, and half-smart person could cause massive casualties, and there is absolutely no way to stop them. The TSA is a huge and bloated agency whose only mission is to prevent terrorists from attacking in ways they already have (and likely won't try again); there's very little thought given to the myriad other ways to make a violent political statement, and hence very little in the way of efforts to prevent any such actions. No, it's much easier to make 87-year-old ladies take off their shoes before boarding and to run infants through a particle detector; so long as they do that, everyone is happy and snug as a bug in a rug.

Or so they're led to believe.
Quoting MrMixon:
My paycheck will be the same this week as it was last week, regardless of how I choose to spend the downtime I have in between running scripts (sorry, gotta leave my computer on to do my work).  I kinda like having a government (roads, bridges, National Weather Service, etc)... take a look at Somalia if you want to see what life is like without gov't...






The roads bridges and National Weather service ain't what's breaking our Country.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Intellicast has Bartlesville, Oklahoma at 69 degrees now--exactly 100 degrees warmer than it was a week ago today.

Pretty amazing...


According to this, there was a 59 degree difference in min/max temp on the 10th, too (high 29, low minus 27).

Heck of a cold front.

But it's only weather...
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Climate deaths more than double in 2010 - Oxfam
Tue Nov 30, 2010

Climate-related disasters killed 21,000 people in the first nine months of this year, more than double the number in 2009, the humanitarian organization Oxfam reported on Monday.


You can never be to safe limiting other peoples health and rights - But if it involves money god help anyone or anything in the way.


Another advocacy group that to save the world with left wing methods.
Quoting RecordSeason:


Do you think a muslim or Kim Jong Ill gives a rat's behind how you want "your" country run? Muslims and dictators don't give a damn what you think. They want you to "convert or die".


Being "over prepared" due to contingency plans does not make us lunatics.

It is the rational thing to do for defense, because so many others in the world are irrational and cannot be reasoned with.


Someone correct me if I am wrong however I don't think any country has ever been attacked by being too prepared.

NASA | Arctic Sea Ice 101

NASAexplorer | October 06, 2009

NASA climate scientist Tom Wagner provides a look at the state of Arctic sea ice in 2009 and discusses NASA's role in monitoring the cryosphere.


Quoting twincomanche:


Someone correct me if I am wrong however I don't think any country has ever been attacked by being too prepared.


Well me tinks those 19 Saudis and Egyptians with Box Cutters and a Plan outta Logan got us well,into a bad situ with our collective pants around our ankles in Sept 2001.

3000 Lives to be specific.



Someone correct me if I am wrong however
New NASA GMAO run (old is purple square in Masters' entry) is trending warmer..
550.

It sure is a heck of a mess. My mortgage got sold, made payments to the "old" company not knowing there was a "new" guy. It took the old guy six months to get my three payments to the "new" guy and then they still wanted me to pay for the late payments that weren't late. One year later we finally all agreed that I hadn't done anything wrong.
Ah... I see.  Perhaps I misunderstood your previous post which seemed to suggest that working harder would somehow preclude my need for a government.



Quoting twincomanche:


The roads bridges and National Weather service ain't what's breaking our Country.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Talking to death: texts, phones kill 16,000: study

Drivers distracted by talking or texting on cell phones killed an estimated 16,000 people from 2001 to 2007, U.S. researchers reported on Thursday.


If the terrorists would have only invented that. Osama bin Verizon.


Now that's the kind of Federally funded junk that is breaking us. I could have told you that without a study.
Interesting how the rain has been wanting to spin up off East Central Florida today.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Climate deaths more than double in 2010 - Oxfam
Tue Nov 30, 2010

Climate-related disasters killed 21,000 people in the first nine months of this year, more than double the number in 2009, the humanitarian organization Oxfam reported on Monday.


You can never be too safe limiting other peoples health and rights - But if it involves money god help anyone or anything in the way.


These stories ran in Nov 2010 - just before the Cancun meetings.

So here's the direct link to the Oxfam pdf - including their "correction" to their initial report:

Oxfam Cancun Briefing

CLARIFICATION JANUARY 2011

"...On Page Two Oxfam prints a grey-scale box quoting Munich Re statistics showing that there were 725 weather-related natural hazard events from Jan-Sept 2010, in which some 21,000 people lost their lives. This information is correct. However it appears under a general headline The human costs of climate change since Copenhagen which could give the false impression that the 725 weather related events could be specifically or solely related to climate change. Oxfam would like to correct that this was not the case and not what Munich Re published in its research..."

Somehow, that correction didn't make it to press...
Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is argument of tyrants. It is the creed of slaves. William Pitt in the House of Commons November 18, 1783


The most effectual means of preventing [the perversion of power into tyranny are] to illuminate, as far as practicable, the minds of the people at large, and more especially to give them knowledge of those facts which history exhibits, that possessed thereby of the experience of other ages and countries, they may be enabled to know ambition under all its shapes, and prompt to exert their natural powers to defeat its purposes. Thomas Jefferson, Diffusion of Knowledge Bill, 1779.
Quoting MrMixon:
Ah... I see.  Perhaps I misunderstood your previous post which seemed to suggest that working harder would somehow preclude my need for a government.



Quoting twincomanche:



I am not sure your point however I can assure you if you work more and make more it will make you less dependent on the government.
Quoting hcubed:


These stories ran in Nov 2010 - just before the Cancun meetings.

So here's the direct link to the Oxfam pdf - including their "correction" to their initial report:

Oxfam Cancun Briefing

CLARIFICATION JANUARY 2011

"...On Page Two Oxfam prints a grey-scale box quoting Munich Re statistics showing that there were 725 weather-related natural hazard events from Jan-Sept 2010, in which some 21,000 people lost their lives. This information is correct. However it appears under a general headline �The human costs of climate change since Copenhagen� which could give the false impression that the 725 weather related events could be specifically or solely related to climate change. Oxfam would like to correct that this was not the case and not what Munich Re published in its research..."

Somehow, that correction didn't make it to press...
Quoting Skyepony:
New NASA GMAO run (old is purple square in Masters' entry) is trending warmer..


Seems way to high IMO.

+2 by August? Thats more intense than the 2009 El Nino.
Quoting atmoaggie:

"will be upgraded from the limited area GFDL MOM3 to the global
MOM4"

Not sure how that could be anything but a non-global ocean model to global ocean model upgrade.

"Limited area" doesn't at least imply that it isn't global? How could a global model be called "limited area"...


The MOM series of ocean models ARE global ocean general circulation models. You can read more about the MOM series of models on GFDL's site. You can also download the latest version, including source if you so desire, though I've only ever managed to get it to run under *nix systems. If you have a windows machine you may be able to compile and run it using gcc in a MinGW or Cygwin environment.

Just because the a model is global model does not mean it is required to run on the global domain. The MOM series can be configured to run in restricted domains horizontal, vertical, and depth domains, as well as use anything from real geographic data to simple box geography.

I don't know what the mean by limited domain in their description, as I don't have the MOM config files that they use. That could mean anything from running in some sort of restricted latitude zone, to restricted vertical layers, or even restricted land geometry. It could also be that their boundary conditions or incoming datasets were lacking, so they couldn't use the full capacity of the model. They don't seem to make their model configuration information readily available (I haven't found it), so I can't be sure what they mean. But making the assumption that they weren't running on the global domain is a bit presumptuous.

Regardless, the MOM series of models are global ocean models and have been since the original MOM model. How someone chooses to incorporate it into their model or workflow is up to them.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Seems way to high IMO.

+2 by August? Thats more intense than the 2009 El Nino.


Yay! Im on!
JFlorida, and that +2 means what?-
Quoting Patrap:


Well me tinks those 19 Saudis and Egyptians with Box Cutters and a Plan outta Logan got us well,into a bad situ with our collective pants around our ankles in Sept 2001.

3000 Lives to be specific.



Someone correct me if I am wrong however


There's also being prepared and being paranoid. Considering the size of our military budget compared to the rest of the planet, I'm pretty sure we are beyond prepared.

Not to mention there is no real threat of an invasion. Aside from our nuclear arsenal, the effect of anyone trying to invade the US would be an economical and logistical nightmare.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
JFlorida, and that +2 means what?-
We are all going to die.

j/k it means a strong el Nino I hope (or not really but i was thinking).
Quoting hcubed:


These stories ran in Nov 2010 - just before the Cancun meetings.

So here's the direct link to the Oxfam pdf - including their "correction" to their initial report:

Oxfam Cancun Briefing

CLARIFICATION JANUARY 2011

"...On Page Two Oxfam prints a grey-scale box quoting Munich Re statistics showing that there were 725 weather-related natural hazard events from Jan-Sept 2010, in which some 21,000 people lost their lives. This information is correct. However it appears under a general headline �The human costs of climate change since Copenhagen� which could give the false impression that the 725 weather related events could be specifically or solely related to climate change. Oxfam would like to correct that this was not the case and not what Munich Re published in its research..."

Somehow, that correction didn't make it to press...

Possibly a moot point; did you see that, according to two studies published today in Nature, global warming from rising CO2 levels can be for the first time directly linked to the growing intensity of rain and snow events in the Northern Hemisphere?

"The rise in extreme precipitation in some Northern Hemisphere areas has been recognized for more than a decade, but this is the first time that the anthropogenic contribution has been nailed down, says [the co-author of one of the studies]. The findings mean that Northern Hemisphere countries need to prepare for more of these events in the future. 'What has been considered a 1-in-100-years event in a stationary climate may actually occur twice as often in the future.'"

Article...
If a strong El Nino comes it will be not only GW talks all summer long on WU but it will come with a heavy and costly blow to the SE and Florida's citrus and my areas strawberries for the '11-'12 winter.
we go from a Neutral La Nina to A strong El Nino, the fact that La Nina is basically gone, whats bringing on the idea that Nino is going to start now?
Teddy we have already had a hard blow on the strawberry fields, seeing that they are still seeing green patches because of this years winter.
550:

Anyone here ever seen "dark" water?

Last time I checked, which was moments ago, water is a transparent liquid. The statement and explanation given are false, as "water" is not dark.

Water appears "blue" because it is reflecting blue more heavily than other colors, but it transmits all of the colors. We know this by experimentation and common knowledge.


It also makes no sense to attribute a higher humidity due to an allegedly increased amount of evaporation and then claim that will lead to drought on land. If there is more moisture in the atmosphere, then the average humidity is obviously higher.

Almost all cases of modern drought and desertification are caused not by CO2 or even "climate change", but because people are stupid and chose to pump rivers and lakes dry, instead of importing desalinated water. See California and Lake Chad.

The melting of ice that is floating does not contribute to any sea level rise, because it already displaces an amount of water equal to it's own mass.


It would be nice if for once these people could report facts without giving incorrect interpretations and explanations.
But really Im not sure about the climate projections with regard to El Nino.

We have a stability/suppression effect with warming (constant or intermittent??). We have increased SST's. We have Cycles that are dependent on SSTs or at least involve them in their signal somehow.
Really I was hoping Florida fruit would not be as affected by extreme weather this year. They were saying that up till mid jan in the press.

If it is bad that is more positive price pressure.
Quoting weatherboy1992:


You may have mistakenly bolded the wrong section, there:

"...However it appears under a general headline "The human costs of climate change since Copenhagen" which could give the false impression that the 725 weather related events could be specifically or solely related to climate change. Oxfam would like to correct that this was not the case and not what Munich Re published in its research..."

He quoted a story about Oxfam's report. I looked at Oxfam's report, including the clarification.

He comes back with a list of stories about SOME of the disasters.

Oxfam said that their source, Munich Re, never stated in their research that ALL 725 weather related events could be specifically or solely related to climate change.

Just clarifying a part of the initial story he posted.

It also makes no sense to attribute a higher humidity due to an allegedly increased amount of evaporation and then claim that will lead to drought on land. If there is more moisture in the atmosphere, then the average humidity is obviously higher.


Its called variability and as the planet is rather large and diversely configured there is quite a bit of room for it. "Global" does not mean at a point.

Quoting Neapolitan:

Possibly a moot point; did you see that, according to two studies published today in Nature, global warming from rising CO2 levels can be for the first time directly linked to the growing intensity of rain and snow events in the Northern Hemisphere?

"The rise in extreme precipitation in some Northern Hemisphere areas has been recognized for more than a decade, but this is the first time that the anthropogenic contribution has been nailed down, says [the co-author of one of the studies]. The findings mean that Northern Hemisphere countries need to prepare for more of these events in the future. 'What has been considered a 1-in-100-years event in a stationary climate may actually occur twice as often in the future.'"

Article...


Did you also see what else the author (Gabriele Hegerl)said?

She led a team that claims to have:

... found substantial ups and downs in the Earth's temperature before modern times, countering other studies that confine noticeable temperature increases to the industrialized era. Marked climate change in other centuries resulted from "external forcing," said the Duke findings, citing volcanic eruptions and other influences. "Our reconstruction supports a lot of variability in the past," said research director Gabriele Hegerl of Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences.[1]
Quoting Orcasystems:


Did you also see that else the author (Gabriele Hegerl)said?

She led a team that claims to have:

... found substantial ups and downs in the Earth's temperature before modern times, countering other studies that confine noticeable temperature increases to the industrialized era. Marked climate change in other centuries resulted from "external forcing," said the Duke findings, citing volcanic eruptions and other influences. "Our reconstruction supports a lot of variability in the past," said research director Gabriele Hegerl of Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences.[1]

Yes, I did see that, because this part caught my eye: "Marked climate change in other centuries resulted from 'external forcing,' said the Duke findings, citing volcanic eruptions and other influences."

IOW, this time it's not an Act of God; it's on us.

(Of course, that was five years ago; let's see what she says nows as new science has come to light.)
http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2010/02/05/giss-ma nipulates-climate-data-in-mackay/

More evidence of Australian surface temperature massaging.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yes, I did see that, because this part caught my eye: "Marked climate change in other centuries resulted from 'external forcing,' said the Duke findings, citing volcanic eruptions and other influences."

IOW, this time it's not an Act of God; it's on us.

(Of course, that was five years ago; let's see what she says nows as new science has come to light.)


Oh I agree there is marked climate change.. and I agree we are partially responsible... I just disagree on the amount. The question is.. what are the other influences

     ,

If its statistically significant there is considerable variability even across the state.

Thats a nice color scheme! lol.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Seems way to high IMO.

+2 by August? Thats more intense than the 2009 El Nino.


The ensamble mean is more like 1.7. Quite a jump from .3 the month before. This was the model that saw this La Nina coming. Has really out preformed the last few years. As for if it is plausible.. If the circulation sets in the pattern of drawing up from along South America like it is beginning to..(note big wind arrows)


It will have the largest anomalously warm heat pool in the world to draw from.


I foresee at least neutral, I'm not ruling out anything after that. Climatology for similar years says back to La Nina in the fall, with hardly a chance to escape from it this summer. That's hard for me to believe with Region 1,2 going to 0 so quick.
Dow,,WOW and a Local oops!


Toomer's Oaks
Toomer's Oaks

Toomer's Corner oaks poisoned with herbicide; unlikely to survive




AUBURN – Auburn University today confirmed that an herbicide commonly used to kill trees was deliberately applied in lethal amounts to the soil around the Toomer's Corner live oaks on campus, and there is little chance to save the trees. More information and ongoing updates as to treatment and prognosis are available on this site.

The City of Auburn Police Division is investigating the situation, and the application of this herbicide, known as Spike 80DF, or tebuthiuron, is also governed by state agricultural laws and the Environmental Protection Agency. The university does not use Spike herbicide. There is no reason to suspect any human danger from the herbicide, which manufacturer Dow Chemical says should be applied with proper clothing protection; a typical use of the herbicide is to kill trees along fence lines.

The university learned that a caller to The Paul Finebaum Show, a nationally syndicated radio show based in Birmingham, on Jan. 27, claimed he had applied the herbicide. As a precaution, soil samples were taken the next day and sent to the Alabama State Pesticide Residue Laboratory on campus for analysis. Due to a small fire that occurred in the Alabama lab in December, the tests were sent to the lab at Mississippi State University in Starkville, Miss., to expedite results.

The lowest amount detected was 0.78 parts per million, described by horticulture experts as a "very lethal dose." The highest amount detected was 51 parts per million, or 65 times the lowest dose. Experts believe a normal application by itself would have been enough to kill the trees, which are estimated to be more than 130 years old.

"We are assessing the extent of the damage and proceeding as if we have a chance to save the trees," said Gary Keever, an Auburn University professor of horticulture and a member of Auburn's Tree Preservation Committee. "We are also focused on protecting the other trees and shrubs in Samford Park. At this level the impact could be much greater than just the oaks on the corner, as Spike moves through the soil to a wide area." Additional tests are being completed to determine the movement and extent of the area affected, Keever said.

The removal process involves digging trenches and applying activated charcoal to absorb the herbicide from the soil and block its progress. A representative from Dow Chemical, which manufactures the herbicide, is advising the university on removal procedures, and expert horticulturalists are also being consulted.

"We will take every step we can to save the Toomer's oaks, which have been the home of countless celebrations and a symbol of the Auburn spirit for generations of Auburn students, fans, alumni and the community," said University President Jay Gogue.

Gogue asked members of the Auburn Family to "continue to be 'All In' in upholding its reputation for class" and not allow anger to be expressed inappropriately or undeservedly.

"It is understandable to feel outrage in reaction to a malicious act of vandalism," Gogue said. "However, we should live up to the example we set in becoming national champions and the beliefs expressed in our Auburn Creed. Individuals act alone, not on behalf of anyone or any place, and all universities are vulnerable to and condemn such reprehensible acts."

Because the application of the herbicide is being investigated, no details about the investigation can be released. Anyone with information can contact the Auburn Police Division at (334) 501-3110 or anonymously by voice or text on the tip line at (334) 246-1391.

CONTACTS FOR MEDIA:
Mike Clardy, (334) 844-9999 (clardch@auburn.edu), or
Deedie Dowdle, (334) 844-9999 (ddowdle@auburn.edu)
NEW FLASH!!!!

CELL PHONES KILL MORE PEOPLE THAN GUNS IN THE USA. OUTLAW CELL PHONES!!!!

Only 12,252 people were killed by guns in 2005.




Quoting JFLORIDA:
Talking to death: texts, phones kill 16,000: study

Drivers distracted by talking or texting on cell phones killed an estimated 16,000 people from 2001 to 2007, U.S. researchers reported on Thursday.


If the terrorists would have only invented that. Osama bin Verizon.
Nice pat. How anyone could do such a thing is beyond me.

was it over football too??
Quoting SQUAWK:
NEW FLASH!!!!

CELL PHONES KILL MORE PEOPLE THAN GUNS IN THE USA. OUTLAW CELL PHONES!!!!

Only 12,252 people were killed by guns in 2005.






You are comparing a 6 year statistic to a 1 year statistic.
I love you, SQUAWK...
Quoting RecordSeason:


You are comparing a 6 year statistic to a 1 year statistic.


Little things like that don't seem to bother others when making their case.
Quoting RecordSeason:
550:

It would be nice if for once these people could report facts without giving incorrect interpretations and explanations.
HAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
you made a funny... or are you just being stupid?

honestly, read the words i quoted of you, and then read the text i omitted from the same entry you made. are you for real?? you are kidding, right? you do understand that you can have intense drought and high humidity at the same time, same place... no? last i checked, it was RAIN falling from the sky that puts WATER on the ground. how about the 2008 drought conditions during summer in the southeastern US? try telling those folks that day after day of stagnant and oppressively humid air from high pressure ridging was solving their drought problems...
sorry blog, rough day... heading home soon! time to update ignore list.
Quoting SQUAWK:
NEW FLASH!!!!

CELL PHONES KILL MORE PEOPLE THAN GUNS IN THE USA. OUTLAW CELL PHONES!!!!

Only 12,252 people were killed by guns in 2005.






If you take the accidental deaths by guns it's way lower than that and one presumes that cell phone deaths for the most part anyway are accidental. 680 gun deaths in 2005.
Quoting Drakoen:
Very nice to see that significant changes will be made to the CFS including a nice increase in resolution. Will be interesting to see how the CFS fairs with the ECWMF and the Glosea in seasonal prediction forecasts.


Related info, fix to the biases introduced in the GFS upgrade may be resolved soon:

"The major upgrade to the GFS in August 2010 introduced three biases:

-2 m temp warm bias

-cold bias in the stratosphere

-low wind bias

Corrective changes are expected to be implemented in April 2011.



A resolution increase, use of a semi-lagrangian model formulation, and possible physics improvements are expected in FY12."



Link
596 I take it I wont get the lecture on delivery tonight. :)

Believe me we understand.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Related info, fix to the biases introduced in the GFS upgrade may be resolved soon:

"The major upgrade to the GFS in August 2010 introduced three biases:

-2 m temp warm bias

-cold bias in the stratosphere

-low wind bias

Corrective changes are expected to be implemented in April 2011.



A resolution increase, use of a semi-lagrangian model formulation, and possible physics improvements are expected in FY12."



Link


Semi-lagragian and increased resolution means more computing power but potentially more accurate models. It will be interesting to see what they end up tweaking.
Just a quick FYI.....Don't try to blacken fish with Chef Paul Prudhommes blackening seasoning in the house....COUGH
Is this a weather blog or a cooking blog?????

TC Carlos still dumping bucket loads on Darwin.
Semi-Lagrangian scheme

Yeow. Here is the review as none of us are probably up to RecordSeason's level:

Semi-Lagrangian Integration Schemes for Atmospheric Models--A Review Free PDF.
toall my friends to the north,tonight might be a once and a lifetime occurence of the aura(northern lights) for people in the usa,tonight it should be visable in the northenr half of our country tonight!!!.....on the wx side maybe some snow in the northeast mon/tuesday with a slight possibilty of a low bombing out off NE???
Quoting Minnemike:
HAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
you made a funny... or are you just being stupid?

honestly, read the words i quoted of you, and then read the text i omitted from the same entry you made. are you for real?? you are kidding, right? you do understand that you can have intense drought and high humidity at the same time, same place... no? last i checked, it was RAIN falling from the sky that puts WATER on the ground. how about the 2008 drought conditions during summer in the southeastern US? try telling those folks that day after day of stagnant and oppressively humid air from high pressure ridging was solving their drought problems...


If you have an increased amount of average humidity that would decrease the likelihood of any one location being under drought conditions.

If you have 5 red marbles in a bag of 10, then you have a 5/10, or 50%, probability of picking a red marble.

If you add an additional red marble, you would have 6/11 chance of picking a red marble.


So on average increasing the amount of water in the atmosphere should decrease the probability of a drought, and it should also decrease the severity of the droughts which do happen.

Adding more moisture to the atmosphere means it is going "somewhere" it isn't just going to be hanging around in the atmosphere forever.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Semi-lagragian and increased resolution means more computing power but potentially more accurate models. It will be interesting to see what they end up tweaking.


The actual run time for the model is not that much time, it is the data prep and generation of the graphics that take up a majority of the time.

0-192 hour T574 GFS takes just over 8 minutes computation time.
192-384 T190 GFS takes about 2.5 minutes computation time.

Link
I'm surprised no one's talking about what the models are forecasting for the hurricane season. Most of the models end up in neutral/weak La Nina, and we all know happened the last time we had a neutral season and a weak La Nina season.
AussieStorm.It's ok friend.........Weathermen and weatherwomen eat...It's ok
Quoting caneswatch:
I'm surprised no one's talking about what the models are forecasting for the hurricane season. Most of the models end up in neutral/weak La Nina, and we all know happened the last time we had a neutral season and a weak La Nina season.

Much, Much too early
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

Much, Much too early


I know, but what if they're right?
Quoting caneswatch:


I know, but what if they're right?

I have enough going on in my life right now to not think about Palm Beach county a few months in the future......."I HATE HURRICANES"
Still backed up on I-95 near Palm Beach Lakes Blvd for those commuting north
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER CARLOS (17U)
8:00 AM CST February 17 2011
===============================================

At 6:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Carlos (996 hPa) [overland] located at 13.1S 131.4E, or 95 kilometres southeast of Darwin and 40 kilometres east of Batchelor has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

The cyclone has weakened into a tropical low and winds near the centre have moderated below gale force. It is expected to move towards the south or southwest and may move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Friday or early Saturday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Daly River Mouth during today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the Darwin-Daly District and on the Tiwi Islands. VERY HEAVY FALLS may lead to localised flash flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================

The Cyclone Warning between Port Keats to Oenpelli, including Darwin, Batchelor, Adelaide River and the Tiwi Islands, has been CANCELLED.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Low Carlos will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Still backed up on I-95 near Palm Beach Lakes Blvd for those commuting north


Have you heard the new parts of the story behind it? Sickening isn't it?
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Semi-Lagrangian scheme

Yeow. Here is the review as none of us are probably up to RecordSeason's level:

Semi-Lagrangian Integration Schemes for Atmospheric Models--A Review Free PDF.


To simplify, pretty much all GCMs use the same basic strategy: Divide and conquer. The system is divided into columns of cubes. The physical properties of those cubes are then used to compute the state based on whatever set of equations they are using for the model. This is repeated for the domain, and the results are then used for the next time step.

The key point here is that the columns nor the cubes move. Only the properties the cubes represent change.

Lagrangian and semi-lagrangian schemes are different. They allow movement instead of a rigid cube and column system. This allows a theoretically better simulation since now "parcels" can morph, change, and collide over time.

The problem here is that such schemes are a lot more resource hungry computation wise. Cubes and columns are simple and easy to divide up amongst compute nodes for example. There's no need to be concerned with collisions, mixing, or something straddling a sub-domain. It's not quite as simple with objects that can slide around from one domain to another, or when geometries can distend and deform.

In some circumstances, geometrical changes don't really affect anything and therefore it's better to use a Lagrangian approach for better accuracy. One such example are stratospheric parcel trajectory models which model the movement of air in the stratosphere.

It should be interesting to see the improvements this will bring.

Quoting caneswatch:


Have you heard the new parts of the story behind it? Sickening isn't it?

Caneswatch.Now they found a child bound in Miami-Dade........I feel so bad
Afternoon, all.

Boy, am I glad I didn't have the time to come in here today!!!!

Hopefully pple will have worked off their angst by now and we can get back to something approximating a discussion of weather....

We had fantastic weather here today, BTW... the best of what February is about. If only it lasts until the weekend is over.... lol

February 16, 2011 -- The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17. Watch this space for updates on the impending -- G2, possibly periods of G3 -- geomagnetic storming.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

1161 will probably be poppin at us soon also!



http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

L8R
The February run of the Japanese FRCGC model favors a La Nina that rapidly weakens into the summer but re-strengthens next winter, becoming a multi-year event.

Quoting caneswatch:
I'm surprised no one's talking about what the models are forecasting for the hurricane season. Most of the models end up in neutral/weak La Nina, and we all know happened the last time we had a neutral season and a weak La Nina season.


luck runs out

now sst's and some upper atomspheric conditions must be watch
as well as shear reaction
if things play out depending on sst's and how fast a rebound
numbers could be similar to last season
but really at this time its a little far off
now by late april early may indications may be more conclusive
I am going to fly to Edinburgh Scotland in April. That is where I grew up until I was in the sixth grade..My question is...If I flip the bird in the scanner will I be in "BIG" trouble??
The general ENSO consensus is saying a weakening La Nina to neutral conditions to summer followed by a return to La Nina conditions. Things are beginning to play out and we'll get a better picture by the end of next month (winter).
Quoting Ossqss:
February 16, 2011 -- The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17. Watch this space for updates on the impending -- G2, possibly periods of G3 -- geomagnetic storming.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

1161 will probably be poppin at us soon also!



http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

L8R
maybe we haven't seen the biggest flare yet
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I am going to fly to Edinburgh Scotland in April. That is where I grew up until I was in the sixth grade..My question is...If I flip the bird in the scanner will I be in "BIG" trouble??


They are not known for their sense of humor.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The actual run time for the model is not that much time, it is the data prep and generation of the graphics that take up a majority of the time.

0-192 hour T574 GFS takes just over 8 minutes computation time.
192-384 T190 GFS takes about 2.5 minutes computation time.

Link


Seems like they're running either on 32 or 64 cores. The system specs are too vague to know for sure.

Output production usually does take longer as it's usually not done in parallel. HDF5 and NetCDF just recently introduced parallel IO into their libraries (the initial releases had terrible parallel performance). Post processing is also usually serial.

Just a minor correction to what you said. It takes 8 minutes to run the first week since it is at a better resolution. The second week takes 2.5 minutes as it is run at a lower resolution.

For some reason, I always thought the model computations took a little longer than that. Maybe I've just got a distorted view from working with climate models.
Quoting twincomanche:


They are not known for their sense of humor.


In the words of Dr. Bones McCoy........Dammit Jim
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
9:00 AM FST February 17 2011
=========================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (1003 hPa) located at 13.9S 170.6E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved. Convection has increased in the last 6 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. System lies under and upper ridge in a moderately sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and gradually moves it south southeast with slight intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE TO HIGH.

Quoting Ossqss:
February 16, 2011 -- The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17. Watch this space for updates on the impending -- G2, possibly periods of G3 -- geomagnetic storming.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

1161 will probably be poppin at us soon also!



http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

L8R


I kept losing WWL yesterday afternoon here in NOLA. Never happened to me before, it's a powerful local station.
FYI.Shin bones are a device to locate furniture in the dark
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER CARLOS (17U)
8:00 AM CST February 17 2011
===============================================

At 6:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Carlos (996 hPa) [overland] located at 13.1S 131.4E, or 95 kilometres southeast of Darwin and 40 kilometres east of Batchelor has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

The cyclone has weakened into a tropical low and winds near the centre have moderated below gale force. It is expected to move towards the south or southwest and may move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Friday or early Saturday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Daly River Mouth during today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the Darwin-Daly District and on the Tiwi Islands. VERY HEAVY FALLS may lead to localised flash flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================

The Cyclone Warning between Port Keats to Oenpelli, including Darwin, Batchelor, Adelaide River and the Tiwi Islands, has been CANCELLED.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Low Carlos will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..

What radio outages are you talking about? I haven't heard of that.
The daily SOI jumped up to 50.87 today due to the cyclone near Darwin, the highest value recorded during this La Nina.

Looks like the Fiji area is set to spit out another cyclone before the week is out...
Quoting twincomanche:
What radio outages are you talking about? I haven't heard of that.


twin.Not sure about the post, but spending 2 years in Fairbanks Alaska radio reception really sucks during solar flares
February 16, 2011 11.23am EST
Sun Emits Most Powerful Solar Flare in Four Years



As it ramps up activity and heads toward Solar Max, the sun has emitted its most violent solar flare in four years, NASA is reporting.

The flare, which spewed from the sun on Monday night, is called a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), and NASA says it's growing. It could hit Earth some time on Wednesday.

The flare is registered as a class X2.2 flare. There are three classes of solar flares, SpaceWeather.com said. Class C flares are the smallest and have little or no effect on earth. Class M flares are medium-sized and they have the ability to cause radio blackouts in the earth's poles. The biggest flares are Class X; they can cause widespread blackouts and send radiation storms to the earth.

"It has been the largest flare since Dec. 6, 2006, so a long time coming," deputy project scientist for NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory Phil Chamberlin told Space.com. "There were some clues that led us to believe the likelihood of moderate to large flares (M class or above) could occur, but we were all surprised when it actually happened to be a large X-class."

NASA recorded an M class CME just a day before. While still powerful, this category of blast is a bit weaker, Space.com said. Both flares came from what NASA calls sunspot 1158.

This violent solar weather confirms that the sun is in fact on track for Solar Max, its period of most intense activity.

"It just means that Solar Cycle 24 is just ramping up!" Chamberlin continued. "This is the first of probably many more X-class flare to occur over the next two to four years as we reach the peak and then descend back down from Solar Cycle 24 Maximum."
The sun goes through cycles of high activity and relative calm, rather than burning with consistent force. Observed for about two centuries, these CMEs are a hallmark of the point of highest activity. Storms on the sun can produce side effects on earth such as malfunctioning telecom and GPS satellite equipment. Space.com said that CMEs generally take about 24 hours to hit the earth and that "a huge cloud of charged particles is headed our way."

The sun's cycles last about 11 years on average. According to Space.com, the current cycle began about a year ago and is expected to reach Solar Max in 2013.

For the top stories in tech, follow us on Twitter at @PCMag.

twincomanche...If we hang in there I am sure the expert JFLORIDA will keep us all informed...
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000


__________________________________________



Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes


Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming
www.solarcycle24.com



Aurora Watch / Flare Activity Continues
02/16/2011 by Kevin VE3EN at 13:00
Comment on Message Board

UPDATE - High level C-Class and low level M-Class flare activity continued early on Wednesday as Sunspot 1158 remains active. There will remain the chance for strong solar flares throughout the day.

An Aurora watch is in effect should the CME activity from the previous few days sweep past earth. Geomagnetic storming at high latitudes will be possible.

X2.2 Major Solar Flare - The sun showed some love on Valentines Day. Massive Sunspot 1158 produced a major X2.2 Class Solar Flare at 01:56 UTC Tuesday. This was the largest Solar Flare of Cycle 24 and a full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was associated with the event. Click HERE to watch a movie I created with the STEREO website using the COR2 Behind data.



Minor Geomagnetic Storming will be possible as early as Wednesday with a small chance of Major storming should this cloud sweep past earth. If it does, Aurora could be visible at much lower latitudes and VHF activity should increase during the evening and night time local hours..


X2.2 makes waves on the sun - Watch Movie




Massive Sunspot 1158 (Early Wednesday)
-,
-,
-,
I sure would hate to be on the sun right now....Those flares would put you eye out.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870442 2204576130300992126630.html?KEYWORDS=extreme+weath er+events

Here is the article.
Here is the article.
Quoting twincomanche:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704 42 2204576130300992126630.html?KEYWORDS=extreme weath er events

Here is the article.

That's an opinion piece--not an article. Big difference between that and peer-reviewed data, you know?
.And I always enjoyed going to Borders
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/old-weather-is-s hedding-new-light-on-climate/

Interesting article.
Somebody help me out here.....what radio outages?

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.


Updated 2011 Feb 16 2205 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate with occasional
M-class and frequent C-class events throughout the period. Region
1158 (S21W39) has produced two M-class flares; the largest an M1/1F
at 16/1425Z with associated Type II radio sweep and a 330 sfu
Tenflare. Growth in Region 1158 leveled off at 620 millionths but
maintained its E-type configuration and beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. Region 1161 (N13E25) produced an M1 x-ray event at
16/0139Z. LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME at 16/0248Z.
Region 1161 has shown continual growth. The group currently has an
area of 330 millionths and developed a beta-gamma magnetic
classification.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next
three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more
M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or
greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity
from Region 1161.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind velocities
throughout the period gradually decreased to around 400km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An
increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor
storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18
February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected
arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on
15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active
as the disturbance subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 114
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 085
Quoting twincomanche:
Somebody help me out here.....what radio outages?


Uh....No more Wolfman Jack....Uh.....No more Kasey Kasem......................Dammit Jim
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
.And I always enjoyed going to Borders


Me too even tho they haven't been peer reviewed.
- 1
Small minds can't tell the difference.

An opinion columnist in a business newspaper. Yeah that's science. NOT!


Quoting Neapolitan:
Here is the article.
That's an opinion piece--not an article. Big difference between that and peer-reviewed data, you know?
I always had to squeeze to look at the Oprah magazine.Ya think it was me?
Twin if you have a J-14 Magazine or Tiger Beat article that refudiates that please post it.
Let's see now, evidence of multiple personalities is a symptom of what?
Miley is going bad.Janet Jackson looks bad.Beiber is a mess..And GaGa spent 2 hours in an egg.....What next
In July the Mayan Return Rep will be taking applications for those who want to leave before Dec 21,2012.

The Sumerian Return Rep will also be in attendance.

The Wormhole Opens October 1 2012 2200 UTC

BP will be handling the Lottery and arrangements.

Book early and often,

Good Luck.

Live Long and Prosper
I am sure JFLORIDA will bring us to our knees for having a bit of fun....I can't wait
Not of the caliber of your posts. I turn over my king sir and give up trying to contribute anything to this misbegotten blog.
Got to go.See all later.....Take care
Post 666 proves it.

JT is the 12th Iman

I saw it on the intranets,,its true
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Seems like they're running either on 32 or 64 cores. The system specs are too vague to know for sure.

Output production usually does take longer as it's usually not done in parallel. HDF5 and NetCDF just recently introduced parallel IO into their libraries (the initial releases had terrible parallel performance). Post processing is also usually serial.

Just a minor correction to what you said. It takes 8 minutes to run the first week since it is at a better resolution. The second week takes 2.5 minutes as it is run at a lower resolution.

For some reason, I always thought the model computations took a little longer than that. Maybe I've just got a distorted view from working with climate models.


Slide 8 of this presentation has the system specs. System has 4992 processors.
Levi... I have no idea what your doing up there in the frozen tundra... but stop it. That snow squall this morning was not funny. You keep that stuff either up there.. or down in GA/FL where it belongs.
Quoting JohnTucker:
yay 666!!!!

No I like seeing the angry and unhappy (needed to say that nicer I don't want to disparage some by association) posters getting along and having fun too.

Twin its so bad every single day you come back right? Every single day. How horrible.


Oh Jesus will you and RecordSeason ****ing stop that already! You guys remind me of the trolls that we had in December/January.
Canes I say the same thing about you. Why dont you show me how I should post here. I unignored you.
Quoting caneswatch:


Oh Jesus will you and RecordSeason ****ing stop that already! You guys remind me of the trolls that we had in December/January.


Just put them on ignore.. then you wouldn't even know they were doing it.. unless someone quotes them.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

Caneswatch.Now they found a child bound in Miami-Dade........I feel so bad


Me too. It's terrible what some parents do to their children. Not only that, DCF knew about this a while ago and they didn't do squat. The blame should be put on them as well.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Just put them on ignore.. then you wouldn't even know they were doing it.. unless someone quotes them.


I already did that with RS yesterday, and I did it on another window with JT before I made the post. It's sickening to see the little comments they make at the end of their posts.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I always had to squeeze to look at the Oprah magazine.Ya think it was me?
At least Ophrah isn't posting GW / AGW pieces...

Wow.... it's dull in here tonight... think I'll go read some Louis L'Amour and zone out for a while... enjoy your blogtime!!!

[Bye Aussie! :o)]

This aint Oprah. I would think that is clear. I dont want it to ever be either.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Levi... I have no idea what your doing up there in the frozen tundra... but stop it. That snow squall this morning was not funny. You keep that stuff either up there.. or down in GA/FL where it belongs.


Aww. I thought it would make up for the Olympics last year...
""THIS", is a Tropical Weather Blog...

not a science site."

Author Unkown
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Seems like they're running either on 32 or 64 cores. The system specs are too vague to know for sure.

Output production usually does take longer as it's usually not done in parallel. HDF5 and NetCDF just recently introduced parallel IO into their libraries (the initial releases had terrible parallel performance). Post processing is also usually serial.

Just a minor correction to what you said. It takes 8 minutes to run the first week since it is at a better resolution. The second week takes 2.5 minutes as it is run at a lower resolution.

For some reason, I always thought the model computations took a little longer than that. Maybe I've just got a distorted view from working with climate models.
Bull. They are running 4608 cores.

If they were using 64 cores at the new global resolution, every run would take more than 6 hours.
See: ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/nova/tsunami/Pa sti_NCEP_CCS%20.ppt
They run GFS on either Cirrus or Stratus, the Power6 type.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The actual run time for the model is not that much time, it is the data prep and generation of the graphics that take up a majority of the time.

0-192 hour T574 GFS takes just over 8 minutes computation time.
192-384 T190 GFS takes about 2.5 minutes computation time.

Link
That other stuff takes so long, partly, because much of it isn't parallel and cannot be run on a cluster effectively.
Here are some interesting facts that you all probally didn't know about D.C.Did you know? that part of the patomic was dug up and turned into a street!?.Also a ship canol use to run up all the way to the Capital building.There is a canol under the streets that use to be the patomic.So when it rains big puddels form,and so does street flooding.Also when I was walking past the Capital today it looked like they were in session since the 2 flags were up.What could they be up to?
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER BINGIZA (05-20102011)
4:00 AM Reunion February 17 2011
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Bingiza (993 hPa) located at 20.7S 43.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5//12 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
20 NM from the center extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern sector

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 21.2S 43.7E - 35 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 22.0S 44.1E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)
48 HRS: 25.7S 45.3E - 30 knots (Depression subtropicale)
72 HRS: 26.9S 44.1E - 35 knots (Depression subtropicale)

Additional Information
======================

System has moved south southwestward at about 10 knots during the latest 6 hours. Convection remains fluctuate above the center. According TRMM microwave picture at 19:12 PM UTC low level circulation has rapidly re-organized within the last hours.

Last numerical weather prediction outcome at 12 hrs (CEP, ARPEGE, ALADIN) forecast a slowdown of the system for the next 24 hours. System is located between two dual steering flow of the subtropical ridge. The present forecast still estimate a landfall today between Belo and Morombe. Despite the good actual environmental conditions, the system has not enough time to deepen significantly before the second landfall. Maximum average wind speed could reach 35 knots at the time of landfall. Associated precipitation could be locally very heavy on the southwest of Madagascar until Friday evening.

Beyond 24 hours, according to the weakening of the subtropical anticyclone, overland depression should dip down south southeastward, come back over water south of Madagascar on Friday or Saturday, track temporarily southwestward of the subtropical ridge and dip down again south southeastward towards a mid latitude trough with a subtropical and then and extratropical structure.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issed at 6:30 AM UTC..
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Slide 8 of this presentation has the system specs. System has 4992 processors.


I was more curious about how many cores they use to run the models though (it didn't say in the presentation). I could always go digging or shoot them an email to find out.

It's unlikely they would use all those cores on a single run, as parallel performance drops significantly if you break the domain into chunks that are too small to effectively utilize the resources.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Semi-Lagrangian scheme

Yeow. Here is the review as none of us are probably up to RecordSeason's level:

Semi-Lagrangian Integration Schemes for Atmospheric Models--A Review Free PDF.



Most of that is actually calculus 1 and a bit of entry level, even DIY programming.

As I was reading it, I was kind of wondering if Blizzard entertainment shouldn't be writing our weather models.

My cousin and I could probably get together and write one of these in a few days to a few weeks, though honestly it's been a while since I actually coded anything more than tinkering with a small experimental project in PHP.

Anyone smart enough to code a modern website should be able to code a weather model or climate model. Random user input is so much more complicated than a deterministic or statistical algorithm.

I've written similar things to calculate expansion rate of the universe effects a photon or particle moving through expanding space-time across various initial distances.

You can write your own libraries or use one, but those only go so far as to make use of some convenient tricks in special cases. So you usually end up using approximations, and you try to shrink those approximations to the smallest size possible to increase the resolution and decrease your margin of error.

Really, input and graphical output are more complicated than the algorithm.

Calculus terminology not necessary, though helpful sometimes.

Yes, I understand most of that as written.

Solving coding problems is something I spent a lot of time doing for "fun" just because I was bored.
Quoting Levi32:


Aww. I thought it would make up for the Olympics last year...


Not funny... bad man.. stop it, and don't do it again.
Quoting Patrap:
""THIS", is a Tropical Weather Blog...

not a science site."

Author Unkown


Its not unknown Pat.
I said it in response to another member.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I was more curious about how many cores they use to run the models though (it didn't say in the presentation). I could always go digging or shoot them an email to find out.

It's unlikely they would use all those cores on a single run, as parallel performance drops significantly if you break the domain into chunks that are too small to effectively utilize the resources.
Atmospheric models, being on a regular grid, are very scalable.
Quoting Levi32:


Aww. I thought it would make up for the Olympics last year...


LOL...I don't care who you are, THAT was funny
For awhile I was thinking it was a vacuum tube blog (I actually enjoined that aside - esp when someone knowledgeable contributed.)

It almost seems like wheat is under assault, worldwide..

Bangladesh~ A tornado coupled with hailstorm lashed several upazilas in the district, leaving about 100 people injured and 70 houses damaged. Wheat and maze in a vast tract of land were also ruined in Sadar, Baliadangi and Haripur upazilas during calamities on Wednesday afternoon. Around six-inch high hails covered almost 5,000 hectares of the wheat and maze lands in Baliadanga, upazila chairman Probir Kumar Roy and Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO) Moniruzzaman said after visiting the affected areas. As many as 70 farmers, who were working in the fields, were injured, they said. Haripur UNO Harun-or-Rashid said wheat in over 70 percent of the lands in the upazila was levelled in the seasonal storm that also injured some 30 farmers. About 70 houses were damaged in Dhantola and Paria unions. District crop production expert Abdul Majid said the extend of damage was under assessment.
*Sign*
Also when I was walking past the Capital today it looked like they were in session since the 2 flags were up.What could they be up to?




House Fiscal 11 Budget Proposal Could Devastate the National Weather Service's Life-Saving Warnings and Forecasts


WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As hurricane and tornado seasons approach, funding for the NWS will be nearly 30 percent less than the first half of 2011, if the Continuing Resolution proposed by the House majority is enacted. Congress's move will necessitate work furloughs and force rolling closures of Weather Warning Offices across the country. The effects will be felt in every aspect of daily life, including emergency management, television weather, and information used by our nation's citizens for transportation, commerce and agriculture.

The National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center, the Aviation Weather Center, the Tsunami Warning Centers, River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices located in communities across the nation are all victims of Congress's budget cut.

"When the budget blade drops on the NWS, it will be felt around the country," said NWSEO President Dan Sobien. "In the next hurricane, flood, tornado or wildfire, lives will be lost and people will ask what went wrong. Congress's cuts and the devastation to the well being of our nation's citizens are dangerously wrong."
Quoting washingtonian115:
*Sign*


Ok, I am lost again... last year the young ones on here had to explain "word" to me... what the heck is "sign"?
He did, however, neglect to post the disclaimer:

Disclaimer: Any disparaging remarks about Canada or Canadians are tongue-in-cheek and meant solely for entertainment purposes. Please note that no Canadians were injured in the writing of this post, though some have been lightly bruised.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, I am lost again... last year the young ones on here had to explain "word" to me... what the heck is "sign"?
No,no,no it doesn't mean anything.Hoever I discovered what TFF stands for,and it stands for To F___! funny.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, I am lost again... last year the young ones on here had to explain "word" to me... what the heck is "sign"?


I believe that may be a JFLORIDA'ized version of *sigh*
Quoting Floodman:
He did, however, neglect to post the disclaimer:

Disclaimer: Any disparaging remarks about Canada or Canadians are tongue-in-cheek and meant solely for entertainment purposes. Please note that no Canadians were injured in the writing of this post, though some have been lightly bruised.


ROFLMAO.. I still like that one.. I stole it for the blog... but changed the names to protect the innocent.
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO.. I still like that one.. I stole it for the blog... but changed the names to protect the innocent.


Even us old guys get a good one every now and again
Quoting Floodman:


I believe that may be a JFLORIDA'ized version of *sigh*


Umm do you count as a peer review?

Sorry JF, I couldn't resist.
Pat~ That one is worth posting the whole thing..


the rest....Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.

The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.

Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. Unfortunately, these improvements are also on the chopping block as the money to fund the programs will be discontinued.

"Decreased accuracy of forecasts is going to devastate every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products," warns Sobien. "Most importantly, Congress is going set back our ability to save lives by decades."
Quoting Floodman:
He did, however, neglect to post the disclaimer:

Disclaimer: Any disparaging remarks about Canada or Canadians are tongue-in-cheek and meant solely for entertainment purposes. Please note that no Canadians were injured in the writing of this post, though some have been lightly bruised.


LOL
So you did something like:

Disclaimer: Any disparaging remarks about Mexico or Mexicans are tongue-in-cheek and meant solely for entertainment purposes. Please note that no Mexicans were injured in the writing of this post, though some Canadians have been lightly bruised.

Something similar to that?
Quoting Skyepony:
Pat~ That one is worth posting the whole thing..


the rest....Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.

The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.

Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. Unfortunately, these improvements are also on the chopping block as the money to fund the programs will be discontinued.

"Decreased accuracy of forecasts is going to devastate every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products," warns Sobien. "Most importantly, Congress is going set back our ability to save lives by decades."


Holy cow. That's just wrong.
I found out what my family did in the 1800's.And I don't like it one damn bit.
Quoting Skyepony:
It almost seems like wheat is under assault, worldwide..

Bangladesh~ A tornado coupled with hailstorm lashed several upazilas in the district, leaving about 100 people injured and 70 houses damaged. Wheat and maze in a vast tract of land were also ruined in Sadar, Baliadangi and Haripur upazilas during calamities on Wednesday afternoon. Around six-inch high hails covered almost 5,000 hectares of the wheat and maze lands in Baliadanga, upazila chairman Probir Kumar Roy and Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO) Moniruzzaman said after visiting the affected areas. As many as 70 farmers, who were working in the fields, were injured, they said. Haripur UNO Harun-or-Rashid said wheat in over 70 percent of the lands in the upazila was levelled in the seasonal storm that also injured some 30 farmers. About 70 houses were damaged in Dhantola and Paria unions. District crop production expert Abdul Majid said the extend of damage was under assessment.


In Bangladesh???!!!! - thats very surprising. They had a cold spell in jan. Fortunately their potato crop is a winner this year. They are in a few outbreaks not the least of which is a B2B H5N1 outbreak. So with the culling they will also see a reduction in those food stocks there.

Quoting Floodman:
So you did something like:

Disclaimer: Any disparaging remarks about Mexico or Mexicans are tongue-in-cheek and meant solely for entertainment purposes. Please note that no Mexicans were injured in the writing of this post, though some Canadians have been lightly bruised.

Something similar to that?


Oh I like that one also... no.. I did this :)

Disclaimer: Any disparaging remarks about USA or Americans are tongue-in-cheek and meant solely for entertainment purposes. Please note that no Americans were injured in the writing of this post, though some have been lightly bruised
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm do you count as a peer review?


I can't be peer reviewed as no one will admit to being my peer...soemthing about the age thing, I fear...though it could be my sacrilegious, sarcastic personality as well
Quoting Skyepony:
Pat~ That one is worth posting the whole thing..


the rest....Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.

The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.

Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. Unfortunately, these improvements are also on the chopping block as the money to fund the programs will be discontinued.

"Decreased accuracy of forecasts is going to devastate every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products," warns Sobien. "Most importantly, Congress is going set back our ability to save lives by decades."


Indeed skyepony,,the arrogance of idiocy will run rampant until confronted with Logic.

2011,the year we see the Monster in the mirror..and it is us.
So all you NHC posters ,,pay attention, programmers as well,they coming for your funding.

The G-4 is on the table to be cut in that Budget.

Ask Dr. Masters how invaluable the G-4 sniffs are to the Models 2-3 days out when a CV Monster is taking shape and on a track to the GOM or other.
Quoting Skyepony:
Pat~ That one is worth posting the whole thing..


the rest....Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.

The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.

Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. Unfortunately, these improvements are also on the chopping block as the money to fund the programs will be discontinued.

"Decreased accuracy of forecasts is going to devastate every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products," warns Sobien. "Most importantly, Congress is going set back our ability to save lives by decades."


Welcome back to the 60s
Anyway back down to the weather I think that this La nina will not turn into a El nino like some of the models are projecting.I think we'll be in nutreal mode maybe by the end of August,or September.Not good for the U.S or Carribean.Again luck has ran out for us in the U.S.Some people have become very complacent,and has forgotten when the last "real" threat approched them or U.S shores.SMH(shacking my head).
Shameful case on Nancy Grace.

Poor girl lost her arms and legs because of Strep A.

This is an outrage that a few doses of antibiotics is all she needed.
716. BtnTx
Quoting Floodman:


I can't be peer reviewed as no one will admit to being my peer...soemthing about the age thing, I fear...though it could be my sacrilegious, sarcastic personality as well
I can't see all of Floodman's text as all of a sudden today IE8 is truncating text on the right for the 1st time on the new site???
The issue with the deficit is not really about the money, but how we spend it...the article today on the F-35 project and the new set of cost over-runs, all smiled upon by certain memebers of Congress, for example.

Get ready folks, the cost in lives is about to go up...
True dat floodman.

Maybe we should de-orbit all those Pesky GOES- Sats as well. Thats should help the Balance sheet.
Quoting Levi32:


Holy cow. That's just wrong.


Yeah~ alot of this fund chopping is coming up fast. People are scrambling to save all the public media (PBS,NPR) from losing all of it's funding. I can't find any organization that sets you up quick to e-mail to your rep on this.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyway back down to the weather I think that this La nina will not turn into a El nino like some of the models are projecting.I think we'll be in nutreal mode maybe by the end of August,or September.Not good for the U.S or Carribean.Again luck has ran out for us in the U.S.Some people have become very complacent,and has forgotten when the last "real" threat approched them or U.S shores.SMH(shacking my head).
Ahhh screw the BS It's well what ever.
The F-35 engines are made in the Speakers District..

ACK..!

The Tan Man wobbles
Quoting BtnTx:
I can't see all of Floodman's text as all of a sudden today IE8 is truncating text on the right for the 1st time on the new site???


It's happened occasionally to me...after a short interval and several refreshes it clears up...
View from the sideline....

You can't fight two wars... or is it three now..I lost count.. have 1/3 of your houses worth less then the mortgage.. 1/6 of the population on some kind of Government handout, a bunch of people demanding action or they will revolt if they raise taxes,and have the worlds largest Military, and not expect cuts that really hurt.

So who wants to talk about the up coming hurricane season?(crickets)Okay well I'm off.
Im your beer peer flood easily.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So who wants to talk about the up coming hurricane season?(crickets)Okay well I'm off.


I posted some stuff and so did sky earlier on it. I think you didn't look. Its between the GW and GW just after the GW. (see I have a sense of humor)
727. BtnTx
Quoting Floodman:


It's happened occasionally to me...after a short interval and several refreshes it clears up...
Thanks!
Quoting Orcasystems:
View from the sideline....

You can't fight two wars... or is it three now..I lost count.. have 1/3 of your houses worth less then the mortgage.. 1/6 of the population on some kind of Government handout, a bunch of people demanding action or they will revolt if they raise taxes,and have the worlds largest Military, and not expect cuts that really hurt.



Welcome to our yard, Orca...it's a mess over here, and you know messes this size typically go: it gets worse before it gets better.

I for one would have no problem with an increase in taxes if I thought for a second I could trust anyone in DC to handle it correctly. The right is every bit as full of crap as the left and they both spend other peoples money like tomorrow it will be out of style. The two sides are so similar it sickens me and the the thing in which they are most similar is the fact that you can tell when they're lying because their lips are moving.

Okay, enough of that depressing stuff...anyone got a Tequila?
Quoting BtnTx:
Thanks!


No worries!
Quoting Patrap:
Im your beer peer flood easily.


My brother!
Quoting JFLORIDA:


I posted some stuff and so did sky earlier on it.
The thing that impresses me the most is that the models(some) literally rush us into a El nino,and for that matter a strong one.I have to disagree.But!.Even if we do have a weak El nino....Wait?.....I don't have to bring up 2004 do I?.
Quoting Floodman:


Welcome to our yard, Orca...it's a mess over here, and you know messes this size typically go: it gets worse before it gets better.

I for one would have no problem with an increase in taxes if I thought for a second I could trust anyone in DC to handle it correctly. The right is every bit as full of crap as the left and they both spend other peoples money like tomorrow it will be out of style. The two sides are so similar it sickens me and the the thing in which they are most similar is the fact that you can tell when they're lying because their lips are moving.

Okay, enough of that depressing stuff...anyone got a Tequila?


Trust me.. I don't want anything from your yard :)

Watching from up here.. you guys are gonna implode, and its not gonna be pretty.

On the other hand.. I did bring some very good tequila home from Mexico :)
From above,,the entry,

not God.


Since 1950, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center records that there have been sixteen La Niña events during February (26% of all years.) In half of those years, La Niña was still active during the August - September - October peak of Atlantic hurricane season, six (38%) transitioned to neutral conditions, and only two (12%) made it all the way to El Niño.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Bull. They are running 4608 cores.

If they were using 64 cores at the new global resolution, every run would take more than 6 hours.
See: ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/nova/tsunami/Pa sti_NCEP_CCS%20.ppt
They run GFS on either Cirrus or Stratus, the Power6 type.That other stuff takes so long, partly, because much of it isn't parallel and cannot be run on a cluster effectively.


There's no need to be rude about it atmo. I'm not familiar with their systems nor how they typically run the model. I work with NASA HPC systems.

First I meant to say CPUs, not cores. Depending on the chip architecture, that could be anywhere from from 128 to 512 cores.

Second, the presentation, while quite descriptive about their system architecture, doesn't describe what a typical production run uses. I found a description page for how to set up and run GFS on their system, but the page referred to scripts which don't appear accessible.

Third, the (indirect) knowledge I have running the GFS model was on a 64 core (just core this time, not CPU) intel based desktop supercomputer. Based on the timings from that and previous experience I have running GCM's, I made a few estimations.

Having worked with HPC systems it's unlikely they use all cores for a single model run unless it really is a system JUST for production runs. Typically, such a system is partitioned into segments for particular work (debug, production, high priority, etc.). The documentation I've seen so far doesn't make an indication one way or the other about this. And without access to their environment/scripts I can't make a determination how many cores are actually used for production runs.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The thing that impresses me the most is that the models(some) literally rush us into a El nino,and for that matter a strong one.I have to disagree.But!.Even if we do have a weak El nino....Wait?.....I don't have to bring up 2004 do I?.
Anything in the spectrum from weak el nino to weak la nina can spell disaster for the Antilles and the US, depending on what the general steering pattern does. Certainly we can't count on busy with high recurve potential, and even less on quiet with a few strikes. It's all inbetween country unless we get a strong anything.

This season could be a real challenge....
BTW, it is a really REALLY bad year to cut wx funding. Between tornado and hurricane extreme weather alone, predictive capability is going to be stretched to the max as it is.

But when something bad happens, watch how that buck everybody was trying to get will suddenly get passed...
Quoting Patrap:
From above,,the entry,

not God.


Since 1950, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center records that there have been sixteen La Niña events during February (26% of all years.) In half of those years, La Niña was still active during the August - September - October peak of Atlantic hurricane season, six (38%) transitioned to neutral conditions, and only two (12%) made it all the way to El Niño.
You know....Some one was looking out for the U.S last year.And no I'm not talking about a human being.I spoke to one women that was affected by Tomas in october.And she said..."How did the U.S not get a direct hit".And I told her someone is truly watching over us.Call me a nut case,or a pyscho path what ever.But no one can't tell me that the U.S last hurricane season was purposly protected.Come on every other place (well almost every other place) had direct hits from powerful storms.And the U.S got a tropical storm.A weak one at that.Hopefully luck no not luck "This" will continue this year.
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, it is a really REALLY bad year to cut wx funding. Between tornado and hurricane extreme weather alone, predictive capability is going to be stretched to the max as it is.

But when something bad happens, watch how that buck everybody was trying to get will suddenly get passed...


One thing is for certain, when these cuts start costing lives everyone on Capitol Hill will pointing fingers at everyone else
Quoting atmoaggie:
Atmospheric models, being on a regular grid, are very scalable.


They scale to point. GCM's are also on a regular grid but they don't scale beyond a certain point as haloing operations begin to consume more and more overhead. You're also limited by your domain decomposition.

Even the best model is going to be limited by Amhdal's law. Unfortunately GCMs and weather models are not embarrassingly parallel.

Another big limitation is, of course, output. Unless you're model is setup to handle
parallel output that's another big bottleneck, either just by disk speed or requiring a gather-write.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Anything in the spectrum from weak el nino to weak la nina can spell disaster for the Antilles and the US, depending on what the general steering pattern does. Certainly we can't count on busy with high recurve potential, and even less on quiet with a few strikes. It's all inbetween country unless we get a strong anything.

This season could be a real challenge....
Hmmm I noticed in some seasons that a usually strong El nino,or La nina tends to cuase more recurvature.However I could be wrong.

Quoting washingtonian115:
You know....Some one was looking out for the U.S last year.And no I'm not talking about a human being.I spoke to one women that was affected by Tomas in october.And she said..."How did the U.S not get a direct hit".And I told her someone is truly watching over us.Call me a nut case,or a pyscho path what ever.But no one can't tell me that the U.S last hurricane season was purposly protected.Come on every other place (well almost every other place) had direct hits from powerful storms.And the U.S got a tropical storm.A weak one at that.Hopefully luck no not luck "This" will continue this year.
The Force was with us. But we are not Jedi yet.
Oh I've been meaning to ask this question for awhile now.Does anybody know what Charley's storm surge total was?.
I see this is still not a weather blog! :}
Quoting TampaSpin:
I see this is still not a weather blog! :}
Aww! where have you been!.Good evening.
Quoting KoritheMan:

The Force was with us. But we are not Jedi yet.
However for this drought that's occuring a weak tropical storm sounds nice.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh I've been meaning to ask this question for awhile now.Does anybody know what Charley's storm surge total was?.


According to this, Charley's storm surge didn't exceed 7 feet anywhere.
Quoting Levi32:


Holy cow. That's just wrong.


Typical congress in action. Cut the programs we really need. Create programs we don't. And $DIETY forbid you ever touch one of the sacred cows.

Both climate and weather are up on the block. Hopefully this doesn't go through as we really do need some new satellites up there.
Quoting Skyepony:
Pat~ That one is worth posting the whole thing..


the rest....Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.

The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.

Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. Unfortunately, these improvements are also on the chopping block as the money to fund the programs will be discontinued.

"Decreased accuracy of forecasts is going to devastate every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products," warns Sobien. "Most importantly, Congress is going set back our ability to save lives by decades."
They can't be serious, right?

Hopefully just working us up into a lather...
Quoting Orcasystems:
View from the sideline....

You can't fight two wars... or is it three now..I lost count.. have 1/3 of your houses worth less then the mortgage.. 1/6 of the population on some kind of Government handout, a bunch of people demanding action or they will revolt if they raise taxes,and have the worlds largest Military, and not expect cuts that really hurt.



Luxury tax
Circus clown ticket tax
millionaire's tax
ten millionaire's tax
etc.

Nobody in a "fair" society should have a right to hundreds or thousands of times as much income as a normal, decent person.

Another thing I should expect, America needs more concentration on infrastructure, research, and production.

By research, I mean technology and medicine, not counting animals in the rain forest. We have too many "marine biologists" and "botanists" and "paleontologists" and "geologists" and not enough engineers, nurses, and producers.


I am not dissing those fields, but it gets a little ridiculous how you have entire teams of people who get paid grants, not to solve modern problems, but to dig up bones and pots from dead cultures, or catch frogs in a rain forest, instead of doing something productive.

We have too many people who "trade" goods and don't actually even make anything. You cannot have a "real" economy that is based on nothing but entertainment and trading other people's junk. Brokers should get a real job and real skills, instead of stealing other people's money in their "legal" ponzi scheme called the "stock market".
Serious.


Its the House Budget Proposal.


You know,,the ones that were gonna save the Country.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Aww! where have you been!.Good evening. However for this drought that's occuring a weak tropical storm sounds nice.


LOt of health problems going on and just took a break from it all....i post some on FB some but, just not been doing much else. This place and some of the peeps get to ya!
I do think the S.W.A.T. teams are safe though.
MAP 2.5 2011/02/16 23:05:54 35.262 -92.361 5.1 ARKANSAS

MAP 3.5 2011/02/16 21:46:17 35.270 -92.361 6.6 ARKANSAS

MAP 2.9 2011/02/16 17:07:02 35.274 -92.374 5.9 ARKANSAS

MAP 2.8 2011/02/16 15:52:36 35.278 -92.371 6.2 ARKANSAS

MAP 2.7 2011/02/16 14:39:08 35.276 -92.369 6.0 ARKANSAS

MAP 2.6 2011/02/16 10:53:14 35.275 -92.374 5.8 ARKANSAS

Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh I've been meaning to ask this question for awhile now.Does anybody know what Charley's storm surge total was?.
Highest I can find per the NHC's tropical cyclone report is 6 to 7 feet on the Sanibel and Estero Islands. This is a bit farther south than the actual landfall point though, so the surge was undoubtedly a little bit greater near, say, Port Charlotte, which was closer to the eye.
Honestly COMMON FOLKS could cut all the fat out of the budget without truly affecting many.
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOt of health problems going on and just took a break from it all....i post some on FB some but, just not been doing much else. This place and some of the peeps get to ya!
Yesterday I had chest pains.But they have eased up some.The doctor however gave me this nasty medicene.I feel like a kid who doesn't want to take their pills.
I cant find any petitions yet to protest the cut. I think they will turn up in a few days.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
I cant find any petitions yet to protest the cut. I think they will turn up in a few days.
Hopefully. I do NOT want to see this pass.
Quoting PcolaDan:
MAP 2.5 2011/02/16 23:05:54 35.262 -92.361 5.1 ARKANSAS

MAP 3.5 2011/02/16 21:46:17 35.270 -92.361 6.6 ARKANSAS

MAP 2.9 2011/02/16 17:07:02 35.274 -92.374 5.9 ARKANSAS

MAP 2.8 2011/02/16 15:52:36 35.278 -92.371 6.2 ARKANSAS

MAP 2.7 2011/02/16 14:39:08 35.276 -92.369 6.0 ARKANSAS

MAP 2.6 2011/02/16 10:53:14 35.275 -92.374 5.8 ARKANSAS


those are all today? let me guess about 10 mi nnw of little rock.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Highest I can find per the NHC's tropical cyclone report is 6 to 7 feet on the Sanibel and Estero Islands. This is a bit farther south than the actual landfall point though, so the surge was undoubtedly a little bit greater near, say, Port Charlotte, which was closer to the eye.
I'd put strom surge probally 7-9 feet due to the fact that Charley was a fast mover,and a tiny hurricane.Thanks weatherboy1992 as well.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Hopefully. I do NOT want to see this pass.
If they don't we'll make one.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yesterday I had chest pains.But they have eased up some.The doctor however gave me this nasty medicene.I feel like a kid who doesn't want to take their pills.


BP been running about 170/110 and that is on the low side of life! Got a stress test i gotta get done. Dr. says looks like i got a blockage somewhere also! Had and plast done when i was 32 and as the Dr. said, hum 18 years probably another is due...LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:
Honestly COMMON FOLKS could cut all the fat out of the budget without truly affecting many.


they spent a BILLION, with a B, on about 50 miles worth of fence. That's $3700 per linear foot.

They could have made it out of gold plated cypress for that price!
Quoting washingtonian115:
You know....Some one was looking out for the U.S last year.And no I'm not talking about a human being.I spoke to one women that was affected by Tomas in october.And she said..."How did the U.S not get a direct hit".And I told her someone is truly watching over us.Call me a nut case,or a pyscho path what ever.But no one can't tell me that the U.S last hurricane season was purposly protected.Come on every other place (well almost every other place) had direct hits from powerful storms.And the U.S got a tropical storm.A weak one at that.Hopefully luck no not luck "This" will continue this year.


It was Chuck Norris. He just stood on the beach and glared. Scared the crap out of every storm approaching the US. Only hurricane Earl dared come close, thinking he was all big and bad. Then Chuck Norris farted and pushed him out to sea.

No one messes with Chuck Norris.

Pray to Chuck Norris. He's a busy man so he won't answer all your prayers, but eventually you'll get an answer. Or he will kick your *bleep*. Either way, your problems will be solved.
Sorry near conway - I was close.



fracking quakes.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Hopefully. I do NOT want to see this pass.


It will pass the House and something similar will pass the Senate; the "weather experts" we elected will worry about this stuff whem it effects them directly
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER CARLOS (17U)
11:00 AM CST February 17 2011
===============================================

At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Carlos (997 hPa) [Overland] located at 13.3S 131.4E, or 115 km south southeast of Darwin and 50 km southeast of Batchelor has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to move towards the south or southwest and may move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Friday or early Saturday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia, including Kununurra and Wyndham.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.9S 130.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.3S 130.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.9S 129.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 16.2S 127.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Dvorak assessment FT/CI of 2.5 based on MET/PT of 2.0 and shear pattern with <3/4 degree displacement from overcast giving DT of 3.0 /- 0.5. FT constrained to 2.5. System over land. Structure weakening on radar and satellite imagery.Position fair, based on radar animation and surface observations.

A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Strongly divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development potential if the system were to move over water.

The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a south to southwest movement as the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east. This track may bring the system over the waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Friday or on Saturday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Low Carlos will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Quoting JFLORIDA:


those are all today? let me guess about 10 mi nnw of little rock.





Quoting Xyrus2000:


It was Chuck Norris. He just stood on the beach and glared. 
I thought it was the notorious roundhouse kick?

Quoting JFLORIDA:
If they don't we'll make one.
I tried to find an address or something to petition to, but couldn't find one on the site that information was published on.

Quoting Floodman:


will worry about this stuff whem it effects them directly
Isn't that how it always is?
Quoting TampaSpin:


BP been running about 170/110 and that is on the low side of life! Got a stress test i gotta get done. Dr. says looks like i got a blockage somewhere also! Had and plast done when i was 32 and as the Dr. said, hum 18 years probably another is due...LOL
Ohh that's bad.Looks like age is getting to both of us.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


It was Chuck Norris. He just stood on the beach and glared. Scared the crap out of every storm approaching the US. Only hurricane Earl dared come close, thinking he was all big and bad. Then Chuck Norris farted and pushed him out to sea.

No one messes with Chuck Norris.

Pray to Chuck Norris. He's a busy man so he won't answer all your prayers, but eventually you'll get an answer. Or he will kick your *bleep*. Either way, your problems will be solved.
Tell Chuck Noris that I'll be sending him a cake soon.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


They scale to point. GCM's are also on a regular grid but they don't scale beyond a certain point as haloing operations begin to consume more and more overhead. You're also limited by your domain decomposition.

Even the best model is going to be limited by Amhdal's law. Unfortunately GCMs and weather models are not embarrassingly parallel.

Another big limitation is, of course, output. Unless you're model is setup to handle
parallel output that's another big bottleneck, either just by disk speed or requiring a gather-write.
The gather-write method has been taking over, lately...ever try to run 4000 nfsd's?

And, atmo models are much more scalable than, say, an ocean model. Those are tougher to parallelize without wasting resources on a land-area. (Which is why many of them are on a variable resolution, triangulated grid).

This was a neat study with running WRF on 10,000 cores.
http://weather.arsc.edu/Events/AWS10/Presentation s/MortonBenchmark.pdf
The world is a big Pizza Pie it can be cut into so many pieces. So many people into one pie, eventually approaches zero for everyone. As Jedkins says get use to it. It is funny how the U.S. donates millions and billions of pounds of food and money to other nations. While being criticized by most of the world as the boggy man. I say we need to go back to the turn of the last century and mind our own business first, that way when the world screws thing up completely as they will we may actually have some resources to help, and they will not place conditions on our methods an just say thank you America land of the brave and free.
A cheesy analogy?

psssst,,.."it's da Land of the free and the Home of the Brave".

Well,,save for the Augilera version

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIANNE (16U)
9:00 AM WST February 17 2011
==========================================

At 8:00 am WST, Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category One (986 hPa) located at 19.3S 111.7E, or 385 km northwest of Exmouth and 480 km north northwest of Coral Bay has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Dianne remains near stationary well off the northwest coast. Diane is expected to drift slowly south during Thursday. If it moves closer to the coast GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Coral Bay late on Thursday or Friday. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend east to Onslow and south to Overlander Roadhouse later on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Exmouth to Coral Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Onslow to Exmouth and Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.9S 111.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.6S 111.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 22.5S 110.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 25.7S 111.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=======================

Deep convection has persisted to the northwest of the LLCC as the system continues to experience southeast shear of around 20 knots. Satellite imagery shows good equatorward outflow. Early morning visible satellite imagery shows a curved band with a DT of 3.5. Average DT over 3 hours remains at 3.0, which is in agreement with the MET. FT and CI held at 3.0.

The system is over ocean temperatures above 28C. Shear decreases on Friday with development becoming more favourable and thus the system is expected to develop into a severe tropical cyclone late Friday. Peak intensity of around 80 knots [10 minute wind] is expected during Saturday 19th February. Dianne is then expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing shear when it gets to a latitude south of 26S.

The system has been slow moving over the past 24 hours. The passage of an upper trough is likely to cause the system to move generally southwards over the next 3-4 days, with the steering finely balanced. The models show a number of scenarios, it is most likely the system will remain off the coast, however there is a chance the system may take a more southeasterly track that will take it close enough to the coast to cause gales from Exmouth to Coral Bay late Thursday or Friday, with gales possible between Onslow and Overlander Roadhouse later Friday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Dianne will be issued at 4:00 AM UTC..
Good thing I cant sing either.
Quoting Floodman:


It will pass the House and something similar will pass the Senate; the "weather experts" we elected will worry about this stuff whem it effects them directly


You'll need a CAT 5 hitting DC for that. Or maybe whole lot of landfalls that affect their states.

Congress usually responds AFTER a preventable disaster takes place.
I say dig up Teddy R. or Dwight E. or maybe FDR.
Quoting atmoaggie:
The gather-write method has been taking over, lately...ever try to run 4000 nfsd's?

And, atmo models are much more scalable than, say, an ocean model. Those are tougher to parallelize without wasting resources on a land-area. (Which is why many of them are on a variable resolution, triangulated grid).

This was a neat study with running WRF on 10,000 cores.
http://weather.arsc.edu/Events/AWS10/Presentation s/MortonBenchmark.pdf


They've been something similar with GCMs. The ran GEOS5 on 10,000 cores: Link

They generated a movie of that run an compared it to satellite imagery. Pretty impressive. They have it running on the NASA Hyperwall, but the movie itself doesn't seem to be publicly accessible.

But yes, coupling different models together certainly does add drag on scalability. I've never run a GCM with just it's atmospheric components so I can't make any claims as to the scalability difference between running coupled vs. uncoupled.

Then there is the whole GPU angle that is being explored, though that's going to take some time. And if these science cuts really do happen, it may take even longer.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000


__________________________________________



Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes


Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming


Unfortunately, both behind paywall - but their SI's are not.

#1

In the first:

"...One limitation of this simple thermodynamic framework is that only the single observed state of precipitation in autumn 2000 is available for sampling extremes in that climate..."

#2

In the second SI, we find a possible reason for the lack of data in the first:

"...For comparison with the model datasets (see below), and due to better observational coverage, we confine our analysis to the period ending in 1999. There is a sudden drop in observational coverage after 2000. For 2001-2003, fewer than 60% of grid-points have data compared to the 1961-1990 mean. Supplementary Fig. 5 shows the geographical pattern of the observed PI trends for 1951-2003, where we consider only grid-points with at least two years of data out of 2000-2003. The sudden drop in observed data coverage can be clearly seen in the plot, with almost no grid-points over Eurasia except for China and part of India..."

Anyhow, there's the link for the SI on both.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


They've been something similar with GCMs. The ran GEOS5 on 10,000 cores: Link

They generated a movie of that run an compared it to satellite imagery. Pretty impressive. They have it running on the NASA Hyperwall, but the movie itself doesn't seem to be publicly accessible.

But yes, coupling different models together certainly does add drag on scalability. I've never run a GCM with just it's atmospheric components so I can't make any claims as to the scalability difference between running coupled vs. uncoupled.

Then there is the whole GPU angle that is being explored, though that's going to take some time. And if these science cuts really do happen, it may take even longer.
Our limitation with GPUs is the message passing. On our storm surge model grids, 12 cores is the max that can share a QDR infiniband with the network to neighboring subsgrid processing on other servers. After that, the infiniband is beyond saturated and massage passing latency slows the run.

We cannot even use most (any?) blades, as they share the QDR among servers.

I know GPUs can be better leveraged with atmo models, though.
Link (8 small ones today)



MAP 3.2 2011/02/17 00:55:41 18.244 -68.300 89.5 60 km ( 37 mi) SE of Higuey, RD
MAP 3.9 2011/02/16 23:41:23 17.828 -67.044 11.6 16 km ( 10 mi) S of La Parguera, PR
MAP 2.1 2011/02/16 23:34:08 17.812 -67.049 10.6 18 km ( 11 mi) S of La Parguera, PR
MAP 3.2 2011/02/16 22:29:58 17.834 -67.034 10.0 16 km ( 10 mi) S of La Parguera, PR
MAP 3.2 2011/02/16 21:19:09 18.165 -68.064 88.8 85 km ( 53 mi) SE of HigDey, RD
MAP 2.3 2011/02/16 19:59:14 17.835 -67.051 11.8 15 km ( 10 mi) S of La Parguera, PR
MAP 3.2 2011/02/16 10:34:36 19.330 -65.672 94.1 102 km ( 63 mi) N of Suarez, PR
MAP 1.9 2011/02/16 07:46:28 17.930 -66.993 12.5 7 km ( 5 mi) SE of La Parguera, PR
MAP 2.8 2011/02/16 01:57:28 18.118 -66.677 21.0 7 km ( 4 mi) NNW of Marueno, PR
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You'll need a CAT 5 hitting DC for that. Or maybe whole lot of landfalls that affect their states.

Congress usually responds AFTER a preventable disaster takes place.
No No No.No Cat 5 is coming to D.C.I'll be extreamly in my feelings to see my city destroyed.
OMG.. I am watching a show about the NOLA area... it sure explains a lot.

"Swamp People"
Quoting Orcasystems:
OMG.. I am watching a show about the NOLA area... it sure explains a lot.

"Swamp People"
They sure found some special individuals to put on that...

But, I suppose that to hunt gators for your livelihood, you have to be pretty special.
Dosent take a Cat 5 to destroy a City,,just the right Impact from A LARGE Storm that Generated a 30 ft Surge is plenty enough.

Cat size is a really bad scale for Impact,,moot actually, in my unprofessional view.

Or a Allison type Houston event,,still the only Tropical Storm in the Atlantic to have its name retired.


One that is wet and lingers can do the nasty on a City.


Be prepared for Calamity..it Know's no Borders,,only men's minds and maps do.

Food for thought.


Quoting atmoaggie:
They sure found some special individuals to put on that...

But, I suppose that to hunt gators for your livelihood, you have to be pretty special.


Oh they are special alright
Just a smidgen on the Redneck side.
Hummm, seems a bit slow..... Let's check the BWC ( Biblical Weather Channel) ? :)


Bueller..?



Me tinks I hear a Lil Teri Clark in the Background?


796. ayi
It's rather amazing how TC Carlos was able to develop and maintain itself for about 3 days over Darwin without really getting out over water. Whilst downgraded now the track may go over water where there is a possibility of re-intensification.

Darwin 256 km radar 329 scans of TC Carlos:

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.m ain&radar=632&numberofImages=10&dateStart=12976974 00&dateFinish=1297895400
Quoting atmoaggie:
Our limitation with GPUs is the message passing. On our storm surge model grids, 12 cores is the max that can share a QDR infiniband with the network to neighboring subsgrid processing on other servers. After that, the infiniband is beyond saturated and massage passing latency slows the run.

We cannot even use most (any?) blades, as they share the QDR among servers.

I know GPUs can be better leveraged with atmo models, though.


Before it even gets that far though, segments of the code need to be identified that could even utilize the GPUs. This usually requires code refactorizations, which can be time consuming and costly. There's also introducing a whole new paradigm of programming to people who aren't really software engineers. Plus fortran isn't really that good of a language to take on such feats, though a couple of fortran vendors are putting in extensions to work with GPUs (and the 2003/2008 enhancements at least try to make the language more object oriented).

Nothing quite like legacy fortran code. There's a lot of inertia to overcome.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Before it even gets that far though, segments of the code need to be identified that could even utilize the GPUs. This usually requires code refactorizations, which can be time consuming and costly. There's also introducing a whole new paradigm of programming to people who aren't really software engineers. Plus fortran isn't really that good of a language to take on such feats, though a couple of fortran vendors are putting in extensions to work with GPUs (and the 2003/2008 enhancements at least try to make the language more object oriented).

Nothing quite like legacy fortran code. There's a lot of inertia to overcome.
Yeah, Portland Group is trying. But nothing is going to replace rewriting subroutines in CUDA.

(I see you and I could go on and on with this)
For anyone interested...check out the CERI Helicorder at Marked Tree, Ar. to see the seismogram display closest to the quake area.....very scarey.... I keep an eye on these
Just a heads up, 3D comin your way soon ! Let alone the phone soon replacing your computer. Yep, it is coming folks. Just need a dock and your done!( google > Atrix). I run a device with 40 gig of memory, that's insane on a phone, but nothing like you will see in 6 months to a year! Let's hope this vid does not auto play like other non-YouTube items, LOL :)




Keep an eye on the research on 3DTV and kids, let alone adults .........
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIANNE (16U)
12:00 PM WST February 17 2011
==========================================

At 11:00 am WST, Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 19.3S 111.7E, or 385 km northwest of Exmouth and 650 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne remains near stationary well off the northwest coast. Diane is expected to drift slowly south during Thursday and Friday. If it moves closer to the coast GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Coral Bay late on Thursday or Friday, and may extend east to Onslow and south to Overlander Roadhouse on Friday. If Diane takes a more south easterly track DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour may occur between Coral Bay and Overlander Roadhouse later Friday and Saturday.

Tides along the entire west coast will be higher than normal over the next few days. Tides between Onslow and Shark Bay are likely to exceed the high water mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Coral Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Exmouth and CoralBay to Overlander, including Carnarvon and Denham.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Dianne will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
802. xcool
The experts in Canberra put out this announcement early Tuesday morning (edited here for emphasis):

CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--Indicators in the Pacific Basin show a strong, mature La Nina is continuing, but there are clear signs the weather event has passed its peak, including a fall of a key indicator, the Australian government's Bureau of Meteorology said Tuesday.

The bureau reported subsurface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have warmed while atmospheric indicators such as the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), trade winds and cloud patterns have eased from peaks reached about a month ago.

The bureau's SOI--a key measure of the weather event--has been positive since early April but in recent times has been trending lower; it measured +17 in the 30 days ended Feb. 13, down from a monthly SOI in January of +20. The five-month running mean for the SOI centered on November was +21.Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina event.

The Australia information dovetails well with my colleague Mike Palmerino's tracking of the eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. In a blog last week, Mike pointed out that the January eastern Pac temps had warmed notably, from a -1.2 reading for December to a -0.6 degree Celsius value for January.

Well, the first half of February has continued that warming trend. Mike's numbers for the first half of February now show a departure at a PLUS (+) 0.1 degree Celsius relative to normal in the eastern Pacific.

This development is significant--after all, the La Nina of 2010-11 was the strongest since 'way back in 1917 or so. As for its implications, as Mike noted last week--if this trend continues into the spring and the La Nina ends, it could allow for more precipitation to develop in the dry areas of the southwest Plains winter wheat areas and would lessen the risk of dry weather this summer in the western Midwest (west of the Mississippi River). And in South America, a weakening La Nina would probably allow for additional late-season rain in Argentina's soybean belt, along with reducing the heavy rain chances in Mato Grosso, Brazil--which would be beneficial for soybean harvest.


Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Quoting atmoaggie:
Our limitation with GPUs is the message passing. On our storm surge model grids, 12 cores is the max that can share a QDR infiniband with the network to neighboring subsgrid processing on other servers. After that, the infiniband is beyond saturated and massage passing latency slows the run.

We cannot even use most (any?) blades, as they share the QDR among servers.

I know GPUs can be better leveraged with atmo models, though.


That is being solved presently. Advancements in optical computing are under way. The first optical computers are going to make existing multi-core systems look like toys. Electronic buses will be replaced with nano scale and micro scale plasmonic lasers and receptors, allowing cores and memory to be practically adjacent to one another. In some cases, the bus length will be cut effectively to one tenth, 1/100, or even smaller fraction of what it is now.

Intel has claimed a "clear path" to 6nm transistor process by 2022, and also there have been recent advancements which allow for 90% less wasted space in feature size for development of circuitry, because of the development of lasers able to use a much narrower beam.

We've also seen demonstrations of actual 4 nm silicon transistor, and a 6nm carbon nano tube optical transistor theoretically capable of operating at close to 100 petahertz. The processor core made with such technology will be slower obviously.

It will take a few years before the mass produced fruits of these advancements makes it to market, but computers 4 or 5 years from now are going to be unimaginably powerful, not just 16 or 30 times more powerful, but possibly 100 or even 1000 times or more.

They will crunch whatever you want to throw at them.
By 2022, Intel and Nvidia are going to be able to put Google's entire network on a single chip.

It seems unimaginable today, but they will have 3-d architecture, which has already been designed. They are just preparing the facilities to mass produce it.

Reducing feature width by 90% means that you can fit many, many times as much circuitry in the same area, limited only by cross-talk and transistor gate size.

This combined with all of these other advancements will mean an entire cloud computing company will fit on one machine. It will have thousands of processor cores on one chip, and each will be 1000 times faster, and the entire system will use much less power than the PC I'm using to type this.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
365 thats a good score - real good - it should qualify you for anything - BE VERY CAREFUL NOW. I don't think anyone should enlist but if you do remember your college credit will get you higher rank.

Do what ever you can to get in with higher rank - trust me.

Choose the shortest enlistment for what you want to do.

Pick your preferred stations.

Air force or coast guard were generally the best services to go into 20 years ago.

I don't think this is a good choice for almost anyone and will say so. (just to make you think about it hard if nothing else.)

Quoting Ossqss:
Just a heads up, 3D comin your way soon ! Let alone the phone soon replacing your computer. Yep, it is coming folks. Just need a dock and your done!( google > Atrix). I run a device with 40 gig of memory, that's insane on a phone, but nothing like you will see in 6 months to a year! Let's hope this vid does not auto play like other non-YouTube items, LOL :)




Keep an eye on the research on 3DTV and kids, let alone adults .........



Why would I want my phone to replace my computer? Phones are for talking, and because the device is so small, it shouldn't replace the computer.


However the capabilities certainly are amazing don't get me wrong, the massive exponential increase in technology is certainly a good thing for us weather freaks :)


I just don't know about that whole phone replacing the computer, but that's just me. I like technology, but I don't have technology do the thinking and work for me like people increasingly are today.
Quoting RecordSeason:


Luxury tax
Circus clown ticket tax
millionaire's tax
ten millionaire's tax
etc.

Nobody in a "fair" society should have a right to hundreds or thousands of times as much income as a normal, decent person.

Another thing I should expect, America needs more concentration on infrastructure, research, and production.

By research, I mean technology and medicine, not counting animals in the rain forest. We have too many "marine biologists" and "botanists" and "paleontologists" and "geologists" and not enough engineers, nurses, and producers.


I am not dissing those fields, but it gets a little ridiculous how you have entire teams of people who get paid grants, not to solve modern problems, but to dig up bones and pots from dead cultures, or catch frogs in a rain forest, instead of doing something productive.

We have too many people who "trade" goods and don't actually even make anything. You cannot have a "real" economy that is based on nothing but entertainment and trading other people's junk. Brokers should get a real job and real skills, instead of stealing other people's money in their "legal" ponzi scheme called the "stock market".



That's a pretty good theory. Accept I don't plan on becoming an engineer or a nurse. Does that make me a problem for America?

Are you planning on being an engineer or a nurse?
Quoting Ossqss:
Just a heads up, 3D comin your way soon ! Let alone the phone soon replacing your computer. Yep, it is coming folks. Just need a dock and your done!( google > Atrix). I run a device with 40 gig of memory, that's insane on a phone, but nothing like you will see in 6 months to a year! Let's hope this vid does not auto play like other non-YouTube items, LOL :)/blockquote>




Well, some of the trends are:

Windows sales will fall down due to the substitution of PCs by cellphones... Android and iphone Operating Systems take the market.... (Already doing so)

The CD era will be history, just like cassettes... Music will just be downloaded directly to your device....

Tablets are supposed to be the Item of the year, specially The Droid 2.3 in 7 or 11 inches.... which are cheaper than Apple's ipad (from $125 up) and have avalilable tons of free applications



809. BtnTx
FYI: I have recently posted a new blog under my BTnTx handle about newly created IE9 problems that found their way to IE8 after IE9 uninstall using Win7 operating system.
Quoting Skyepony:
Pat~ That one is worth posting the whole thing..


the rest....Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.

The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.

Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. Unfortunately, these improvements are also on the chopping block as the money to fund the programs will be discontinued.

"Decreased accuracy of forecasts is going to devastate every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products," warns Sobien. "Most importantly, Congress is going set back our ability to save lives by decades."



Good Lord! What the heck is wrong with our Government?

Dang the NWS is headed backwards towards the stone age just in time while I'm working on my MET degree.

Essentially this means because of idiots when I get a job as a meteorologist in the future that means I'll be working with less technology then is currently in place?

And I thought we were progressing... What amazingly more important thing is the government gonna be concentrating its funding on in place of that, let me guess, probably studying cow flatulence...
Quoting Patrap:
Also when I was walking past the Capital today it looked like they were in session since the 2 flags were up.What could they be up to?




House Fiscal 11 Budget Proposal Could Devastate the National Weather Service's Life-Saving Warnings and Forecasts


WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As hurricane and tornado seasons approach, funding for the NWS will be nearly 30 percent less than the first half of 2011, if the Continuing Resolution proposed by the House majority is enacted. Congress's move will necessitate work furloughs and force rolling closures of Weather Warning Offices across the country. The effects will be felt in every aspect of daily life, including emergency management, television weather, and information used by our nation's citizens for transportation, commerce and agriculture.

The National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center, the Aviation Weather Center, the Tsunami Warning Centers, River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices located in communities across the nation are all victims of Congress's budget cut.

"When the budget blade drops on the NWS, it will be felt around the country," said NWSEO President Dan Sobien. "In the next hurricane, flood, tornado or wildfire, lives will be lost and people will ask what went wrong. Congress's cuts and the devastation to the well being of our nation's citizens are dangerously wrong."



Which politicians of the House are part of this? I'm extremely mad! Let me guess, the far right?


I'm all for budgets when it comes to pointless government spending, but common, that's one of the areas where government money is needed!
Depending on your biz needs, or personal needs, at least for me, the ideal cellphone should be able to substitute:

Your PC (handle docs, spreadsheets, presentations, emails, internet and so on)

Your multimedia device (handle your music in any format, video, photos, recordings .....)

and also...
handle your contacts, appointments, alarms, video games, schedules, databases, hobbies, shopping, deposits, credit cards, bank transactions, mutual funds, investments and so on....

With today's cellphone technology, That is possible....

Quoting Jedkins01:



Good Lord! What the heck is wrong with our Government?

Dang the NWS is headed backwards towards the stone age just in time while I'm working on my MET degree.



Seems like It's just an economic national interest problem....
Seems like China related......

Quoting TaylorSelseth:
Has anyone seen any aurorae yet? I've seen nothing here in Fargo.



They don't need any stinkin' science, they got their bibles and Pat Robertson telling them that hurricanes are punishment for allowing gay people to get married.


I'm a Christian, if they actually read the Bible, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be extreme right wingers. I don't think the practice of homosexuality is right, but that's between them and God. I know some gay people, and I may not think that life style is right, but we all got sin and problems so why should they be treated less? Homosexuals should be treated with the same respect as a fellow Christian who upholds marriage between a man and a woman. We are all people, if anyone pays attention to what God actually says, there's absolutely no excuse for hate, racism, and forcing others to conform to what you believe.

As for Pat Robertson, I didn't know anyone still payed attention to anything he says... lol

But this is weather blog, not a political/religious blog, so I'm done
I don't think the phone will ever fully replace the computer. I think it will be able to compete and operate on the same level, but it will never replace it. People seem to forget that comfort and ease of use also come into play when using electronic devices. A keyboard and mouse is much more efficient and comfortable than any touchscreen or keypad on a phone.

Additionally screen size is an issue, I like having a large screen size when looking at pictures or browsing the Internet.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER CARLOS (17U)
5:00 PM CST February 17 2011
===============================================

At 3:30 pm CST, Tropical Low, Former Carlos (995 hPa) [Overland] located at 13.3S 130.8E, or 100 km south of Darwin and 175 km northeast of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to continue moving southwest and may move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf early on Saturday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop between Daly River Mouth in the NT and Kulumburu in WA, if the system moves over water on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia, including Kununurra and Wyndham

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.6S 130.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.0S 130.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.6S 128.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 15.8S 126.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
System over land. Structure weakening on radar and satellite imagery. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface observations.

There is still a well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Strongly divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development potential if the system were to move over water.

The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a continued southwest movement as the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east. This track may bring the system over the waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf early on Saturday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Low Carlos will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIANNE (16U)
3:00 PM WST February 17 2011
==========================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 19.2S 111.4E, or 415 km northwest of Exmouth and 670 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Dianne remains near stationary well off the northwest coast. Diane is expected to drift slowly south overnight tonight and during Friday. If it moves closer to the coast GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Coral Bay on Friday, extending south to Overlander Roadhouse during Saturday. If Diane takes a more south easterly track DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour may occur between Coral Bay and Overlander Roadhouse on Saturday.

Tides along the entire west coast will be higher than normal over the next few days. Tides between Onslow and Shark Bay are likely to exceed the high water mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible.

A Flood Warning is current for the Gascoyne, Murchison and Greenough Rivers and a Flood Watch is current for the Irwin River. Flooding is also expected in other areas of Western Australia. Please refer to the full list of Flood Watches and Warnings at www.bom.gov.au

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Coral Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Exmouth and Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse, including Carnarvon and Denham, including Carnarvon and Denham.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.9S 111.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.8S 110.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 23.0S 111.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 27.3S 112.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=======================
Deep convection has persisted to the northwest of the LLCC as the system continues to experience southeast shear of around 20 knots. Satellite imagery shows good equatorward outflow. Curved band wrap of 0.8-0.9 has been sustained on recent visible images. MET agrees and FT is set at 3.5. ADT is also running at 3.5. Latest ASCAT pass does not indicate winds above 45 knots but resolution and wind gradient issues could be a factor. Final intensity estimate is set at 50 knots [10-min].

The system is over ocean temperatures above 28C. Shear decreases on Friday with development becoming more favourable and thus the system is expected to develop into a severe tropical cyclone late Friday. There is some uncertainty however with considerable variance in model trends and some indications in the satellite imagery [TPW, WV and appearance of low level cloud in VIS imagery] that dry air may be impeding intensification.

Peak intensity is expected during Saturday 19th February. Dianne is then expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing shear when it gets to a latitude south of 25S.

The system has been slow moving over the past 24 hours. The passage of an upper trough is likely to cause the system to move generally southwards over the next 3-4 days, with the steering finely balanced. The models show a number of scenarios, it is most likely the system will remain off the coast, however there is a chance the system may take a more southeasterly track.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Dianne will be issued at 10:00 AM UTC..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BINGIZA (05-20102011)
10:00 AM Reunion February 17 2011
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bingiza (990 hPa) located at 20.9S 44.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant extending up to 140 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
100 NM from the center extending up to 200 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 21.6S 44.0E - 35 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 22.5S 44.6E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
48 HRS: 25.3S 45.2E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
72 HRS: 27.3S 44.8E - 35 knots (Depression subtropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The system has rapidly intensified on a southward track over sea. An very ill defined eye is visible on visible and infrared imagery. Convection is concentrated very near of the center on the Mozambique channel edge and in the northwestern part of the system. BINGIZA is making landfall in the northern vicinity of Andranopasy and its re-intensification should be very short duration with a south southeastward track overland. In fact, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for this track within the next 48 hours with a north northwesterly steering flow generated by the near equatorial ridge. Associated rains should be heavy on the southwestern Madagascar. Remnants of BINGIZA should come back over water south of Madagascar near Ste-Marie Cape on Saturday, track temporarily southwestward on the subtropical ridge and dip down again south southeastward towards a mid-latitude trough with a subtropical and then an extratropical structure.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
18:00 PM FST February 17 2011
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (1002 hPa) located at 13.8S 169.9E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved. Deep convection has decreased in the last 6 hours due to diurnal variation. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. System lies under an upper ridge in a moderately sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and gradually moves it south southeast with some intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE TO HIGH.
821. DDR
Almost 1 inch since yesterday,double the months average so far,not a bush fire in sight almost 2 month's into the dry season here in Trinidad

interesting that its darwins turn for terrible flooding seems as if carlos might reintensify over the joesph bonaparte bay alittle
Northern California into Southern Oregon sure got wet yesterday:

Close to home for me

http://newmadrid2011.org/
All that Fracking has a price dey say.



Protest Against Shale Gas Fracking
Posted: Nov 03, 2010 3:51 PM CST




Protests held today in several states including Arkansas against shale gas fracking. It's a process used to get natural gas out of the shale. In Little Rock a small group at the state capitol gathered to express their outrage over what they say are the negative effects of fracking.



Armed with signs that read "I fought for my country in Vietnam I should not have to fight for clean drink water!" and "clean water is more valuable than gas" Arkansans fed up with a natural gas drilling process known as fracking joined forces on the steps of the State Capitol Wednesday to send a message and raise awareness about hydraulic-fracking.



Donna Adolph, President of Arkansans for Gas Drilling Accountability says, "It's a process of extracting natural gas from shale layers underground with high pressure water, sand, and very toxic chemicals."



A process Adolph, says is posing major health risks.



Adolph says, "All over the world we are having water contamination from this process, air pollution that is unbelievable. The toxins cause cancers, all kinds of neurological diseases and especially in small children."



Andy Cheshier, President of C.A.R.E., Citizens Against Resource Exploitation, says "The chemicals they are using we really don't know what they are because they say they are proprietary. They won't tell us. Thanks to the "Halibut Loophole" they don't have to tell us what these chemicals are. I can tell you they are very dangerous. There are up to 900 of them we know now.



The protestors fear salt water injection wells used to dispose of the water from the fracking process are causing earthquakes.



Adolph says, "These earthquakes can affect the casings that are suppose to protect our water and no one is checking them. "




It's out of their love for the Natural State the protestors say they are speaking out.



Adolph says, "It's just a call for people all over the world to take notice to this problem. This could be a greater natural disaster than the Gulf because it affects all of our water."



The protestors are pushing for the Frack Act to pass on a federal level requiring companies to disclose the chemicals they are using in the fracking process.



Meanwhile, the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission which declined to talk on camera has proposed a rule that would require companies operating in the state to disclose the chemicals they used after a well is completed. That proposal will voted on at the next Oil and Gas Commission meeting December 7th.


looks like a little cold air push to take away the taste of spring
Pat one of the largest pipelines crossing the Mississippi is at the tail end of the New Madrid Fault near Marriana Ar.

Garland Robinette has been talking about the problems with fracking for the last 2 years. It's been reported that in places people can actually light their water faucets and a flame will come out just like lighting a crawfish boiler.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks like a little cold air push to take away the taste of spring

Hopefully it'll be safe to say this push won't be anything like a couple weeks back though. Brrr.
Quoting tkeith:
Pat one of the largest pipelines crossing the Mississippi is at the tail end of the New Madrid Fault near Marriana Ar.

Garland Robinette has been talking about the problems with fracking for the last 2 years. It's been reported that in places people can actually light their water faucets and a flame will come out just like lighting a crawfish boiler.


I've seen that in his reporting.
Crazy indeed.
Quoting tkeith:
Pat one of the largest pipelines crossing the Mississippi is at the tail end of the New Madrid Fault near Marriana Ar.

Garland Robinette has been talking about the problems with fracking for the last 2 years. It's been reported that in places people can actually light their water faucets and a flame will come out just like lighting a crawfish boiler.


There's a disturbing number of these on youtube..
Complete Update





Morning all.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Biggest Solar Flare In Years Headed For Earth.



Any reports of radio or other problems yet?
Quoting twincomanche:


Any reports of radio or other problems yet?


Yes, especially in China

For those who were interested or commented on the phone becoming your PC item, perhaps I was unclear as to how. This is the first of its kind and the link will explain it better than my text would. Just put it in the docking port and poof. Its just the beginning :)

http://www.engadget.com/motorola/atrix-4g-review/

Here is a vid from the same group.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-BlXmN2x0k

Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes, especially in China



Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.