WunderBlog Archive » Category 6â„¢

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

La Niña strengthens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:20 PM GMT on March 09, 2006

La Niña continues to influence our weather, and has strengthened some in the past month, according the the latest discussion issued today by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. They predict that La Niña will continue at least until June, and probably into October. If this prediction holds true, we are likely to see another very active hurricane season in the Atlantic, as wind shear is typically quite low over the Atlantic during La Niña conditions. Dr. Bill Gray's forecast (issued December 6) is calling for 17 tropical storms (average is 11), 9 hurricanes (average is 6), and 5 intense hurricanes (average is 2-3). It will be interesting to see if the stronger than expected La Niña conditions will cause him to raise his numbers in his forthcoming April 4 forecast for the 2006 hurricane season. The NOAA hurricane forecast will be issued in mid-May.

Figure 1. Heavy La Niña rains fell in mid-February over the Philippines, triggering a devastating mud slide that killed over 1500. Image credit: NASA's TRMM project.

La Niña has brought increased rains to portions of Ecuador, northern Peru, Hawaii (which suffered moderate flooding problems last week), and of course the Philippines, where a devastating mud slide killed over 1500 on the island of Leyte. On the flip side, La Niña has brought drought conditions to the south-central and southwestern U.S. Phoenix, Arizona has recorded its 142nd consecutive day without rain today, and Flagstaff has recorded only 2.6" of snow this winter--77 inches below normal, and 110 inches below last year's snowfall. The Snowbowl ski area near Flagstaff was unable to open this year for the first time in its history. Rain is forecast to fall over much of Arizona on Saturday, but not enough to significantly dent the drought.

Tornadoes today
My next update depends on the weather--severe weather and tornadoes are expected over much of the southern U.S. today, and we'll see what storms develop. Already this morning, tornadoes have been reported in Arkansas and Tenessee, along with damage from 70 mph thunderstorm winds and baseball-sized hail.

Jeff Masters
RAIN IN PHOENIX after 146 days
RAIN IN PHOENIX after 146 days
Finally 'rained' in Phoenix area at 4:40 PM MST today, 8 March 2006. Ok, I don't know what happened at the airport KPHX yet, but 5 mi east in Tempe, I got a sprinkle. As proven Here. I hope we get 8 more of these...

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

First Post woot I rule (LOL)
Jeff..I was looking at a 30 day loop of the SST in the Pacific and saw exactly what you are talking about. If it continues to strengthen and stays strong, then I have a fear that we will see a repeat of last season. I live near the east coast of Florida, so hurricane season for me is always filled with apprehension.
Jeff Masters- the link to the NOAA forecast takes you to the August update for the 2005 season, not the forecast for 2006...
So I wonder what the odds makers in Vegas have for the chances that the 2006 season will be the once in a lifetime season. Somebody asked the other day for everyone's predictions on when the first storm will be named. I am going to say June 17th 11:00 AM advisory, south of the Cayman's, makes landfall, Panama Beach as a Cat 1. Hows that for going totally out on the limb. I do think that shear will be just high enough early into June to cause the later date of first formation but think it will pick up quick after that.
TPaul, Cayman is being storm free for 2006
Alec,how will La Nina effect the dust storms like we had last season...just imagine how much worse last season could have been without shear and dust dampening the atmoshere.....
April 15th?!?!? My Bday is the 13th!!! ARRRGGG!! LOL!!
I have a feeling that this year will equal if not surpass last year's numbers. Sorry everyone!! But for all of you in the gulf and south florida....I think that the east coast(north Fl,GA,SC,NC) will bear the brunt of these storms. The Bermuda high is already trying to set up shop in the right place, although the temps will drop some next week,that pesky high will come back. With the wind shear lower in the ITCZ, we will see the classic storms from Africa, all the way across to the SE coast.
First storm of the year...May 10th.
No dust storms this year I'm afraid. That is just my opinion, and we all have them!! LOL!! :O
How do "blue tarps" hold up in hurricanes? We still have plenty of repair work to do here in Broward County post Wilma (catagory 2), and "wind insurance"costs keep going up and up and up...and then there are the new improved levees around New Orleans...You guys are certainly painting a scary picture of the upcoming season.
Blue tarps? I'd expect to lose them in a T.S. Once the roof is gone, your home goes pretty quick.
T-89 days to the start of the 2006 hurricane year
Nobody has noticed that the NOAA forecast link is wrong?

From NOAA link:
NOAA is calling for a 95% to 100% chance of an above-normal 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, according to a consensus of scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). This forecast reflects NOAA’s highest confidence of an above-normal hurricane season since their outlooks began in August 1998.

The updated outlook calls for an extremely active season, with an expected seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms (mean is 10), with 9-11 becoming hurricanes (mean is 6), and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes (mean is 2-3). The likely range of the ACE index for the season as a whole is 180%-270% of the median.

The forecast for 18-21 storms was for last year; NOAA does not issue any outlooks until May (I think). So don't think that we will have as many storms as last year until they do.
Around Mid-May=NOAA first 2006 hurricane season outlook


No storms on April 15 please. That is depressing enough for many Americans. Let them come after tax day. I think we will see a storm in May.
While it's on my mind. Are all ready for season 2006 who live in coastal areas? KRWZ stated "T-89 days" till party time.

Back to work
gcain, blue traps up here in Indian River County did pretty well...

Co-Worker who lost their Vent Cap/Frances (endless Cat2) -- Made it thru Jeanne Cat3/No Problem

Neighbor lost roof in Jeanne -- Still Traped in Wilma (Cat1 measured here)did Very Well even though it was a year-old.

Church #1 lost lots of Mexican Tile & Roof sections in Frances -- after Jeanne only minor leaks(surprising)

Church #2 lost vaulted roof in Frances -- No Problems after Jeanne

Anecdotely, the tarps if put on properly seemed to fair pretty well. By my non-expert observations, Only About 10% were fully lost, about 15% had minimal shredding & rest were fine. I actually heard of more "repaired" roofs having additional or more significant damage. Make Repairs As Fast As Possible & Always Use a Reliable Contractor.

For Preparedness Tips & Links,
Visit Collinsfarm Blog

He's dedicated his blog to the topic & been consertedly maintaining it. New Links added frequently & suggestions welcomed.
First time blogger. It appears to me that in 2004 and 2005, the large majority of storms have been steered into Florida or the Gulf Coast primarily due to the fact that the Bermuda High extended further to the west (or retrograded). I'm curious if this pattern is expected to continue in 2006, or if things might get back closer to normal, allowing more storms to threaten the east coast this year. Anyone care to comment on that?
In Brevard some of the tarps made it through Jeanne, some did not. Every tarp that had been put up in '04 was shredded by Wilma. Many tarps just desenigrate around a year. So think of retarping if it is showing wear. Agreed though the better quality tarp, installed properly, has the best chance.

Roof repair if 90% of it is left to work with has done well. The black tar stuff that can be used wet or dry worked well. We used around 4 gallons after Frances, added new paper & shingles in some spots, minimal leaking here after Jeanne, while all the tarps in this neighborhood were shedded.
just read the header from Dr Masters....not looking good for us again this year. My roof held (new one in late 2003) but a lot of my neighbors stll have blue tarps...but also alot of roofing companies at work in the area so hope they get them fix soon.

Great. As least our barrel roof tiles were finally replaced this week.

Posted By: MichaelSTL ( at 8:21 PM GMT on March 09, 2006.
Nobody has noticed that the NOAA forecast link is wrong?

Thanks, you are correct, just Bill Gray has made a forecast. The NOAA outlook isn't due until mid-May. Sorry for the misleading numbers--although Bill Gray's forecast of 5 intense hurricanes is still not much cause for cheer.

Jeff Masters
That is one heck of a line of storms firing up.
I've issued my early forecast. I, personally, see nothing to keep this year any less active than next - if I'd said we'd get to Zeta and have an 882mb hurricane in October, would you have believed me?

My unofficial 2006 forecast, March 9.
skypony are you in NC? I never heard of Brevard before but on America's Next Top Model a girl was from there. I'm in Fayetteville, NC and I was rooting for her but she was the 1st to get booted they say it was because of her souther accent I mean it was a thick accent but I just learned in 2005 how in different parts of NC they sound slightly southern like in Fayetteville & Raleigh and in Robeson County they sound like Jethro from the hillbilies.
Brevard County, Fl... though i'm very familiar with the town in NC, one of the colleges i attended was Brevard College there. They were brothers~ one had a town named after him in NC, the other a county in FL. Did some horse shows in Fayetteville & still visit the area, at least, yearly.

Can understand your confusion since Frances & Jeanne affected both areas. Some friends of mine up there also suffered roof damage from, i think, Frances. The storms were long & windy here, but really saved the rain for WNC.
I'll vote for mid-May for the first named storm. If the La Nina continues for the whole season, it may be just as active as last year. The only question is whether Florida and the Gulf Coast get pounded again, or if more 'canes go up the East Coast. We can hope more of them get steered out to sea if they head up the East Coast.
Okay give me a vote on when you think the first major of the year will develop and if so when or where it might strike.
My prediction is 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes.

I also predict 2 hurricanes making landfall at major intensity in the US, with both of these in the FL peninsual or gulf coast regions.

I also predict one Cat 2 and one Cat 1 and one tropicoal storm making landfall in the US.

No major threats to the northeastern US.
I also predict no storms before June 1--and I will go out on a limb and say no named storms before July 1 :)
Not an expert here, but I think July is the earliest a major hurricane will form. Where it hits depends on the Bermuda High. I sincerely hope the areas that got hit last year are spared this year.
Dr.Master's thank you for all the information that you give us. You are a blessing to all us in the Hurricane Belt.
Guess that is not a good sign here for any of us.
Hope that Mrs. Master's is doing great. Another great person.
i do not want to get ever one start up on her

but her what i think

22-28 stoms on to lol

11 of them be comeing hurricane

9-10 of them be comeing cat 2 cat 3 or cat 4 hurricanes

and 5 of them be come cat 5 hurricanes

and 2-7 of them makeing land fall in FL or the gulf and up to NC and SC

and there is a 5% ch of one of them makeing land fall in new york the time is comeing

I have noticed your repost of my forecast, passing it off as my own, without giving due credit. Remove it, or I will be contacting the administration of S2K, and banning you from my own board.

Repost Link

Sorry to everyone else for having to post this here.

I suppose I should feel good - people are copying me :)
15 named storms this year
3 majors
2 majors striking US (in unpopulated areas)
6 Hurricanes
KRWZ, other than the 5 Cat 5 thing, that seems quite reasonable.
hey ForecasterColby well we did had 4 cat 5 hurricane last year so i am thinking of 5 cat 5 for this year
Colby...they say imitation is the most sincerest form of flattery....but plagerism can not be tolerated. Good for you for taking a stand.
KRWZ, we had 3 Cat 5's last year. Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Emily was close, but there just wasent enough info to upgrade her.
The NHC said that Emily would be upgraded to a Category 5 in the post-storm report.

I only found three cat5 last year.


Where is the fourth cat5? Rita, Wilma, Katrina, ???
Are you counting Emily as a cat5? The report on Emily hasn't been posted. Just checked the NHC site.
Okey dokey, I think the problem is being remedied as we speak.
New York City did have a direct hit in 1821, by what was a major hurricane (probably Cat 3). It drove a 13 foot storm surge into lower Manhattan (see Wikipedia).
haydn yesthe E storm would the 4th if they do update her to a cat 5

Did what you read say when the report on Emily would be posted?

agree with you about 5 cat5...don't want them to hit land
i like to no that to i think the nhc is sleeping
: haydn but they are fun to play with when they are cat 5 storm you no why its call how low will the mb go
Yep, the matter is resolved. Without any administrative action whatsoever :)
I am going to make a prediction and then pray that I am wrong. I predict 23-25 named storms, of which 12-15 will become hurricanes. Of these 4-6 will be major hurricanes, with 2-3 of these making a U.S. landfall as a major hurricane.

any reasons in 2005 why 175-185 mph was the max winds when the mb would support a stronger storm

We could have a contest predicting intensity based on mb.
Anyone have a link to the post analysis of storms? I've looked and looked, and I guess they dont want people to find it.
It doesn't really matter if there is 1 Category 5 or 5, what matters is how strong/big they are if they make landfall - a strengthening Category 3 at landfall can be more destructive than a weakening Category 5 that weakens to a Category 3 at landfall (the size of the windfield matters, as well as how susceptible the coast is to storm surges).
and friday is 147 with no rain in PHOENIX
It's great to solve things ourselves.

Many of us are making predictions. Should one create a place to post them and see how they verify?

her you go
nothing for Emily yet
They are taking a long time getting reports on Emily and Rita out.
there sleeping

i will be so mad if they keep the R storm at cat 3 at land fall it mad land fall as cat 4 storm not cat 3 storm

Wilma, which is what I think you're referring to, was in an area of very low pressure for the Atlantic. The normal sea pressure was in the area of which you would see in the W. Pacific. So to strengthen to 185 mph, Wilma had to get a rediculously low pressure. One low enough to create the pressure gradient necessary to create 185 mph winds when the air pressure around it is already low.

Thats why sometimes you'll see Cat 5 winds with 920+ MB, or Wilma will be a Cat 4 with pressure under 900MB. It all depends on how high the air pressure is around the storm.
Haydn, that's what my site is there for! Go make yourself a thread in the tropical discussion forum, if you'd like.

They have not put a report out this week at all.
It's been more like 2 or 3 weeks since the last report...
Maybe they will put all of the remaining reports out at the same time.
It's been two. I'm not terribly suprised on Rita and Emily, but what's taking so long on Franklin? (the following is fake)

Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Franklin

It became a tropical storm and went northeast.
I am surprised on Rita considering how quickly they got the report on Katrina out. Emily i can understand somewhat do to them trying to decide whether it was cat-4 or cat-5 at peak intensity. Franklin is just rediculous.
To all,

I put up a blog on Colby's site for predictions of 2006. Winner gets bragging rights for 2007.
Also a little surprised on Zeta considering how quickly they got Epsilon out.
Yeah, Franklin being so late is rediculous, and the only thing to determine for Zeta is the exact formation time (which determines if Zeta was the latest forming storm on record or not).
what's taking so long on Franklin?

may be it be come a hurricane?
Good point. Any reason for how long it is taking to get Beta out?
hey haydn can you start up one on your blog as well so we can all play a long this sould be fun
I suppose it is possible that Franklin could be upgraded (November summary lists Franklin as 70mph T.S.).

Don't really understand the concept you're talking about. I'm looking for links for this now.

Here's my initial thoughts without looking anything up.

Low forms...Winds become faster around the center...outflow developes...lower pressure in center....more wind coming in at surface-thus faster winds...cycle continues until hurricane forms and sustains itself if environment favorable

greater the differences between the low and high, greater the wind speed at the center


I'll start one on this site.
haydn so how soon could you have it up on your blog on her
Basically, he was saying this:

Yes, the winds are caused by pressure differences. Because the area around Wilma had lower pressure than usual, her pressure needed to get lower before her winds could rise.

And would someone please tell me what in the world is going on here?
What is taking Harvey report so long? Did it do anything besides contribute to the number of storms this year?
Last year I should say.
The contest is on. Check my blog on this site for prediction contest 2006. Good luck to all who participate and may the best forecater win.

Is this the first time you've been copied by Christy?
To my knowledge. Storm2k strictly prohibits linking to other sites without permission (which is denied for message boards, including mine), so credit would have been difficult to give. He still shouldn't have, but the matter is resolved and dropped.
btw and 2006 topics ... Glad to know the situation is resolved.
coolby mill for you
There have been over 300 storm reports since yesterday (look at the SPC's reports for yesterday and today), and AccuWeather suggests that it could be a lot worse on Saturday.
: cyclonebuster mail for you
michaelstl wrote:

"It doesn't really matter if there is 1 Category 5 or 5, what matters is how strong/big they are if they make landfall - a strengthening Category 3 at landfall can be more destructive than a weakening Category 5 that weakens to a Category 3 at landfall (the size of the windfield matters, as well as how susceptible the coast is to storm surges)."

that's not true. charley in 04 strengthened very rapidly to a cat 4 just before landfall but didn't create the destruction you would normally see with a cat 4. storm surge was very low as well from what i've read. had it been over ocean waters a couple of more hours when it strengthened like it did it would have been far worse.

katrina, worst storm ever, weakened from a powerful cat 5 to a supposedly strong cat 3 (i personally think it was a mid cat 4) but had record breaking storm surge. the reason it had cat 5 storm surge was because it weakened just ten maybe twelve hours or even less prior to landfall. the water did not have the time to weaken to cat 3 or 4.
Destruction with charley was i believe second worst in U.S. history until Katrina.
Read what I said - it also depends on the size of the storm and how susceptible the coast is to storm surges.
I was right, Charley is third most destructive hurricane in U.S. history behind Katrina, and Andrew.
It's a long post, folks. The bold-italics are mine.

Science 10 March 2006:
Vol. 311. no. 5766, pp. 1359 - 1360
DOI: 10.1126/science.311.5766.1359a
NASA Agrees to Review What's on the Chopping Block
by Andrew Lawler

NASA's science chief has offered space and earth scientists half a loaf in response to withering complaints about cuts in the agency's proposed 2007 budget. Even so, it's a better offer than the one NASA Administrator Michael Griffin made last week to life and microgravity scientists: He announced a new timetable for finishing the international space station that will leave almost no room in the next 4 years for U.S. research projects.

Goliath tops David. Work continues on the James Webb Space Telescope, while NASA recently canceled the smaller NuSTAR mission. Testifying before the House Science Committee, NASA's Mary Cleave pledged to rethink the space agency's proposed cuts after legislators and researchers complained about their impact on young researchers and smaller missions. (One of those missions, to two asteroids, was canceled the same day.) Cleave said there was a catch, however: Shifting money back into those areas could spell doom for flagship spacecraft now under development for astronomers, earth scientists, and solar physicists. But senior researchers at the hearing said they would be willing to consider such a tradeoff.
That same afternoon, Griffin announced that NASA will not pursue most of the planned research activity on the space station before the orbiting base is complete in 2010. The change results from a cost- and timesaving reduction in the number of space shuttle flights needed to boost the hardware into space--missions that would have allowed astronauts to carry out a host of experiments. Speaking at a press conference at Kennedy Space Center in Florida with the leaders of other space agencies, Griffin declined to discuss the U.S. research agenda after 2010, but it appears bleak. Russian Federal Space Agency chief Anatoly Perminov says NASA will provide the Russian section of the station with additional electrical power.

NASA's cancellation of the Dawn mission, awaiting a June launch to the Vesta and Ceres asteroids, drew a swift response from scientists. "I was shocked that after testifying before your committee yesterday, the first thing Dr. Mary Cleave did upon returning to her office was to cancel the Dawn Discovery mission," wrote Mark Sykes, director of the Planetary Science Institute in Tucson, Arizona, to committee chair Representative Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY). Although Sykes maintains that critical technical issues have been resolved, Cleave told Science that a recent review found expected cost overruns exceeding 20% and the project facing more than a 1-year delay. Her office was in the process of notifying scientists before the hearing, she noted, but legislators did not ask her about the mission.

At the hearing, both Republican and Democratic legislators expressed outrage at cuts, proposed last month in NASA's 2007 budget, to a host of robotic science missions as well as to biology on the space station. A panel of scientists also lambasted NASA for proposing to reduce research grants, typically 3-year awards of less than $100,000, and small missions. The cuts "would be disproportionately felt by the younger members of the community," warned Joseph Taylor, a physicist at Princeton University. "Without research support to pay for their time, this group will be forced to turn to other fields--or leave the sciences altogether."

Pressed by Boehlert to offer an alternative, Taylor pointed to the servicing mission for the Hubble Space Telescope and to the James Webb Space Telescope. The Webb telescope remains $1 billion over budget, despite recent attempts to cut back its costs, and the Hubble mission is the second largest effort within NASA's astronomy plan. Taylor said he would consider sacrificing one of those to rescue grants and small missions. Astrophysicist Fran Bagenal of the University of Colorado, Boulder, added that restoring money to those two areas would "justify a delay in flagships" such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory, to be launched in 2008 to examine solar variability.

Some flagship missions already have been delayed or canceled. A 2010 launch for NASA's $850 million Global Precipitation Measurement mission has been stretched to 2013, and NASA has twice canceled plans for a major spacecraft to study Jupiter's moon Europa. "This marks the first time in 4 decades when we have no solar system flagship at all," noted Wes Huntress, a geophysicist at the Carnegie Institution of Washington and a former NASA space science chief.

That somber situation might look good to life and microgravity scientists, who would be largely shut out over the next 4 years of space station construction and perhaps longer. Before the Columbia disaster, NASA planned 28 shuttle flights, many carrying scientific equipment to and from the facility. Now the number stands at 16. "It is the same space station," Griffin said. "But we are largely deferring utilization."

In good news for the station's partners, NASA agreed to launch the European and Japanese scientific modules earlier than planned so that non-U.S.-based research could begin in 2008. In exchange for not launching a Russian power module, NASA also will funnel power to the Russian portion of the station. A portion of that power was once designated for experiments aboard the U.S. lab module.

Good night
Damage reports coming in on the possible severe weather Dr Masters mentioned.
LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas (AP) -- Storms moving across the South on Thursday brought winds strong enough to rip off roofs and blow apart barns. Thousands of people lost power in Arkansas, and a lightning-sparked fire killed a man.

Southern Oklahoma had baseball-sized hail and surrounding states saw heavy rain as the front moved east across the Mississippi River.

Around Little Rock, the high wind rolled over a mobile home and damaged about a dozen other homes, and trees and power lines were down around the state. Road signs were reported bent in Johnson County, in northwestern Arkansas. A 78-mph gust was reported in the northeastern part of the state.

In the southwestern town of Ashdown, an 83-year-old city councilman died after lightning struck his house and started a fire. His wife was injured but survived.

A couple in the northeastern town of Tilton suffered cuts and bruises after they left their mobile home and took shelter in their vehicle. The storm blew out the vehicle's windows -- and the trailer was destroyed, said Gerald Britton, a deputy emergency coordinator in Cross County.

Other homes in the county also were damaged, Britton said.

In Mississippi, students at Lockard Elementary School in Indianola were ordered into hallways just before a tornado struck, assistant principal Valerie Simpson said. No one was hurt, but the storm caused roof damage to three buildings and blew out windows.

Winds as high as 80 mph took off roofs and damaged homes in Bolivar and Panola counties, said Lea Stokes, spokeswoman for the state emergency agency. Three people were injured in Lowndes County, where several homes were damaged or destroyed.
Would someone check the S2K tropical forum? Perhaps there's some clue as to why they just banned me, because I sure as heck don't have one.
It's official ~ It was the 5th warmest winter for the continental US ~ Behind 1998-1999, 1991-1992, 1997-1998, with 1999-2000 still holding the title for the hottest.

bummer Colby~ how about you go incognido(i need a shifty eye .gif here)...
colby i know this one

there is a ban on everyone form wunderground

KRwZ got in there and caused mayhem so then they banned everyone from wundergound
Unfortunately, it was an IP ban. Those take some time to work around, and a certain amount of computer know-how. I can get around it, and I will to find out what's going on, but I'd like to know from someone who isn't banned.

Cyclone, it's because you won't shut up about your tunnels. I'm really starting to wish the wunderground administration would follow suit.
i even got banned for telling him that not all people for wunderground are not bad he did not believe me so i just left
ohh the tunnnel tlak on there man they ownt like that (:
ohh boy david saw it

oh great this wont be good
They can't simply 'ban everyone from wunderground'. They use the same basic forum software I do, and I know its limits and abilities.

Blah, I'll deal with it in the morning. Good night.
Everybody, just ignore Cyclonebuster and he may give up.
new blog is update and it about this storm i be geting
what in the world are yall talking about???? what other site is that???
: taco2me61 you do not want to no
someone give me the link and I will go and check it out...:0)
www.storm2k.org...enter @ own risk.
he going to find out the hard way

A school in Sunflower county, Miss had it's roof tore off with the kids inside... luckily no injurys...

Article highlights on a El Nino & La Nina study about to get under way~

We know about El Niño and La Niña, the Pacific connection to world weather. But we're just beginning to know about the connection of the Indian Ocean to world weather.

Does the warm Indian Ocean set the El Niño and La Niña cycles in motion?

Scientists from the U.S., India and Japan are now trying to find out, putting out the same kind of specialized weather buoys in the Indian Ocean that they've used for years tracking El Niño weather in the Pacific.

The number of, this is gonna be a real bad fire season for some of the south, articles is really getting out of hand...
This should have been the one I highlighted Offical~ NOAA's winter wrap up. Interesting tidbit~

In Flagstaff, Ariz., as of Feb. 28, only 1.6 inches of snow had fallen since autumn began. This contrasts with a normal snow total of 72.5 inches for the period.

That's an inch below what Dr Master's has posted above.
ok I'm back--- but I am not sure what I was looking for...
tell me about it
ok well I am done for the night have to go to bed will be chating tomorrow...

Good Nite and Good Luck!!!! :0)
Image of large dust storm off of Africa.

Looks like there will be dust this year to inhibit development of tropical waves, unless West Africa gets heavy rain in the next few months.
good morning my friends and Dr Masters. just got caught up on the reading of this blog since yesterday.
Good discussions on here last night.
will try to check out that site you say we are not allowed on to see what it is about..don't know if I can get on or not but will try.
from Broward County Florida this morning:

75.1 °F / 23.9 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 62.5 °F / 16 °C
Wind: 2 mph / 3 km/h from the SE

Wind Gust: 12.0 mph / 19 km/h
Pressure: 30.10 in / 1019.2 hPa
Heat Index: 77 °F / 25 °C
I just tried and was told I could not get into that website that perhaps it was down or busy, etc...

I am doing this from work so there should not be a connection to getting into the site.

may try again later.

got to get back to work now.

127. TPaul
So what is the deal with storm2k and who runs that site?
Posted By: TPaul at 8:10 AM PST on March 10, 2006.
So what is the deal with storm2k and who runs that site?

yes oh runs that site any way