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La Niña on the way?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:53 PM GMT on January 23, 2009

A La Niña event may be developing in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, as equatorial sea surface temperatures cooled to 0.73°C below average in December, and have cooled further to -1.1°C below average this week. A La Niña event is defined as occurring when the 3-month running mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific cools below -0.5°C for five consecutive months. The 3-month running mean as of January 1 was -0.4°C, so we are still officially experiencing neutral conditions. Approximately 50% of the El Niño forecast models predict that a full-fledged La Niña event will develop between January and May of 2009. Our last La Niña event ended just eight months ago, in May 2008. It is uncommon to have separate La Niña events develop two years in a row. This has only occurred twice since 1950, so I give it a 50/50 chance that a full-fledged La Niña event will develop in 2009. One argument against a La Niña event developing is the current burst of west-to east winds that has developed in the Western Pacific. These westerly winds have developed as a result of a series of cold air outbreaks associated with troughs of low pressure, plus a periodic flare-up of thunderstorm activity called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. This burst of westerly winds has triggered formation of a 200 meter-deep, long-period, eastward-propagating ocean wave known as an equatorial Kelvin Wave. This wave has been marching eastwards over the past few weeks, pushing warmer Western Pacific water into the Eastern Pacific. As the Kelvin wave continues to propagate eastwards towards South America over the next few weeks, it should keep La Niña conditions from amplifying through the rest of January.

Despite the unusually late start to La Niña conditions this winter, the cooler water developing in the Eastern Pacific is capable of having a significant impact on regional weather patterns. We can expect during January-March 2009 above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average precipitation across the South, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southern United States.


Figure 1. Latest three-month forecast of precipitation issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Volunteers needed for disaster relief fund-raising
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is in the process of wrapping up its Hurricane Ike relief efforts, and is looking ahead to the future. According the new wunderground featured blog, Portlight Disaster Relief, "Our goals are to expand our network of supporters, continue to create a sense of ownership and community and create a financial reserve. Achieving these goals is critical to us being able to serve future hurricane victims in a strategic, pro-active and efficient manner." To this end, Portlight is sponsoring a fund-raising effort this March and April in 40 cities--a Spring Relief Walk. Volunteers in twenty cities have already committed to the effort, and more volunteers are needed! Check out the Portlight Disaster Relief blog for more information.

My next post will be Monday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

La Nina will be a player it seems this season
La Nina, El Nino, and Atlantic Hurricane Damages in the United States

Roger A. Pielke, Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 2027-2033.

Paper: Link

Abstract

Hurricanes result in considerable damage in the United States. Previous work has shown that Atlantic hurricane landfalls in the United States have a strong relationship with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomena. This paper compares the historical record of La Nina and El Nino events defined by eastern Pacific sea surface temperature with a dataset of hurricane losses normalized to 1997 values. A significant relationship is found between the ENSO cycle and U.S. hurricane losse s, with La Nina years exhibiting much more damage. Used appropriately, this relationship is of potential value to decision makers who are able to manage risk based on probabilistic information.
Interesting information. Time will tell what really happens! What does any of this mean regarding the upcoming 'Cane season~
Yep you could see it coming.....Thanks Dr. Masters.......That also usually means a more active Tropical Season in the Atlantic if my thinking is correct....
Thanks Pat - you answered the question while I was typing it!
Had that tab opened and was reading it conchy..
The above average precip in the Ohio and Tenn. valleys is not good news for those of us who work on or live near the lower Mississippi River.

We had extremely high river stages last year and appears we may have a repeat with all the snow thats already fallen.
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Tropical Cyclone Warning #22
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Extratropical, Ex-Fanele (997 hPa) located at 30.8S 53.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The storm is reported as moving south-southeast at 14 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 32.6S 55.0E - 30 knots (EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
========================
Residual convective activity associated to the system has considerably weakened and the low level circulation center is now fully exposed, yet still rather well defined.

However, this system still produce some strong winds as shown by the ASCAT Data at 5.20 UTC. The system shows a wind structure with a broad central area and weaker winds (Diameter about 60 to 80 NM) surrounded by a ring of stronger winds which extend further in the southeastern quadrant, due to the gradient and suntropical high pressures

Most of the available NWP models are in good agreement with the southeastern forecast track and the slowdown in the next 24-36 hours, before the system merges with a mid latitudes trough at the end of the forecast. WInd should gradually decrease along the forecast track, as the system fills up

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOW MONITORED WITH THE GMDSS BULLETINS FQIO20.
In concern for my beloved oceans and the increasing acidity that appears to be having a negative impact on my beloved little coral thingies,I offer the following for review and comment:
Being a stubborn southern Cracker, I like to work on my own vehicles. When my AC compressor went out on my Suburban I decided to fix it myself. Bought some gauges and a how-to book and dug an old vacuum pump out of the,where did I get all this crap, pile and set off on the adventure.
In the intro section was a thorough review of AC theory. To my suprize it seems CO2 is an excellant gas for AC operation. It requires high pressure and any vehicle currently in use would require a costly retrofit to employ CO2 as a coolant. They mentioned future legislation on the subject. Haven't heard any more about it. Where do you get all that CO2 from?
Coal fired power plants are dirty beasts. Coal fired power plants with CO2 scrubbers are clean beasts. They are researching how to dispose of the CO2. Even considering pumping it down onto solid rock at high pressure to displace the water in the rock where it will be forever trapped. Interesting.
It is my desire to bring this technology into the sunshine in hopes that someone who thinks on a far grander scale than me can influence Congress to explore the validity of CO2 AC.
Please comment...
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Oh yippee! *sarcasm* Can't we have Summer w/o Hurricanes this year? T'would be so nice! Ban Hurricane Season!
Have a great day everyone..... Dang La Nina!
Quoting Patrap:
La Nina will be a player it seems this season
Hey Shep,

The Coal Sludge in TN is still a mess.... In my humble opinion that spill is not getting enough news coverage. Friends say its a terrible site to see & smell. Who knows just how long this will impact that area, the waterways (which flow into the GOM)....
Quoting theshepherd:
In concern for my beloved oceans and the increasing acidity that appears to be having a negative impact on my beloved little coral thingies,I offer the following for review and comment:
Being a stubborn southern Cracker, I like to work on my own vehicles. When my AC compressor went out on my Suburban I decided to fix it myself. Bought some gauges and a how-to book and dug an old vacuum pump out of the,where did I get all this crap, pile and set off on the adventure.
In the intro section was a thorough review of AC theory. To my suprize it seems CO2 is an excellant gas for AC operation. It requires high pressure and any vehicle currently in use would require a costly retrofit to employ CO2 as a coolant. They mentioned future legislation on the subject. Haven't heard any more about it. Where do you get all that CO2 from?
Coal fired power plants are dirty beasts. Coal fired power plants with CO2 scrubbers are clean beasts. They are researching how to dispose of the CO2. Even considering pumping it down onto solid rock at high pressure to displace the water in the rock where it will be forever trapped. Interesting.
It is my desire to bring this technology into the sunshine in hopes that someone who thinks on a far grander scale than me can influence Congress to explore the validity of this idea.
Please comment...
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Get yer shovel and ride up there and dig an acre out or 2 if ya want.

Now THAT's sarcasm.


La nina is a fact.

LOL
I've seen the La Nina coming by keeping track with SkyPoney and STL blogs. The good news is a warmer temps for the South for the next few months. The bad news has already been discussed I see.
Pat,

My shovel is currently in use.... Orca has it! LOL
The reports from friends are terrible.... and most likely too Toxic for "shoveling"!

Later! Have a great day!☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮
Quoting Patrap:
Get yer shovel and ride up there and dig an acre out or 2 if ya want.

Now THAT's sarcasm.


La nina is a fact.

LOL
A Darn Dam broke that never could break they said. Well,dosent mean much to the Folks who Lost their Land,Homes and groundwater for good.

Sounds familiar..to me.

Sad ,its not getting any media play cept in Tennessee.
I have updated my Weather Blog with a SuperBowl Forecast and also added a discussion in the Tropical section about LaNina with a Link.

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Pat,

The lack of national media coverage infuriates me....

Gotta run! Really! : )
Quoting Patrap:
A Darn Dam broke that never could break they said. Well,dosent mean much to the Folks who Lost their Land,Homes and groundwater for good.

Sounds familiar..to me.

Sad ,its not getting any media play cept in Tennessee.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey Shep,

The Coal Sludge in TN is still a mess.... In my humble opinion that spill is not getting enough news coverage. Friends say its a terrible site to see & smell. Who knows just how long this will impact that area, the waterways (which flow into the GOM)....
News coverage?
Surely American Idol and Brittany Spears underwear is more important. Follow up investigations aren't clever or fodder for the shock jock mentality.
Interesting read. If CO2 is the driver, I wonder why GW folks don't advocate this, but instead concentrate on teh 1% instead of the 99%? Seems much more effective and less expensive.

Excerpts:

"There is one way we could save ourselves and that is through the massive burial of charcoal. It would mean farmers turning all their agricultural waste - which contains carbon that the plants have spent the summer sequestering - into non-biodegradable charcoal, and burying it in the soil. Then you can start shifting really hefty quantities of carbon out of the system and pull the CO2 down quite fast."

"The biosphere pumps out 550 gigatonnes of carbon yearly; we put in only 30 gigatonnes. Ninety-nine per cent of the carbon that is fixed by plants is released back into the atmosphere within a year or so by consumers like bacteria, nematodes and worms. What we can do is cheat those consumers by getting farmers to burn their crop waste at very low oxygen levels to turn it into charcoal, which the farmer then ploughs into the field. A little CO2 is released but the bulk of it gets converted to carbon. You get a few per cent of biofuel as a by-product of the combustion process, which the farmer can sell. This scheme would need no subsidy: the farmer would make a profit. This is the one thing we can do that will make a difference, but I bet they won't do it."

Link
Quoting Seastep:
Interesting read. If CO2 is the driver, I wonder why GW folks don't advocate this, but instead concentrate on teh 1% instead of the 99%? Seems much more effective and less expensive.

Excerpts:

"There is one way we could save ourselves and that is through the massive burial of charcoal. It would mean farmers turning all their agricultural waste - which contains carbon that the plants have spent the summer sequestering - into non-biodegradable charcoal, and burying it in the soil. Then you can start shifting really hefty quantities of carbon out of the system and pull the CO2 down quite fast."

"The biosphere pumps out 550 gigatonnes of carbon yearly; we put in only 30 gigatonnes. Ninety-nine per cent of the carbon that is fixed by plants is released back into the atmosphere within a year or so by consumers like bacteria, nematodes and worms. What we can do is cheat those consumers by getting farmers to burn their crop waste at very low oxygen levels to turn it into charcoal, which the farmer then ploughs into the field. A little CO2 is released but the bulk of it gets converted to carbon. You get a few per cent of biofuel as a by-product of the combustion process, which the farmer can sell. This scheme would need no subsidy: the farmer would make a profit. This is the one thing we can do that will make a difference, but I bet they won't do it."

Link


Great Article.....GW is a complete Joke! Those that are advocates of GW are only looking out of one eye without looking at the total Picture....
Quoting Patrap:
A Darn Dam broke that never could break they said. Well,dosent mean much to the Folks who Lost their Land,Homes and groundwater for good.

Sounds familiar..to me.

Sad ,its not getting any media play cept in Tennessee.


Your Correct Pat. Guess i have been living in a box myself. This is the first i have heard of this......WOW!
21 seastep
Ran that notion by a farmer friend.
He wants to know what is the going rate for charcoal and who is going to buy it.
He's also curious as to how the EPA and private enviromentalists are going to react when several million acres of smoldering piles of charcoal start smoldering at the same time and who will replace the top soils lost by erosion when the land is stripped bare.
He does not sound so Lefty with this policy....WOW...good for him!

Officials say President Barack Obama will sign an executive order Friday ending the ban on federal funds for international groups that promote or perform abortion.
Big Snow event coming for the Western Mountains and Southern Plains.....



25
Sounds great.
Why waste battery technology research monies, when we can spend that money on advertising and performing abortions?
Aired 12/27/08 - Coverage of TVA Coal Ash spill in Kingston TN

Tampa: Seeing any more cold-fronts coming anytime soon? Ok, as long as not a repeat of this one.
Hurricane Ike update is out on the nhc page


Link
that was a long update on IKE 51 page
24. theshepherd "21 seastep
Ran that notion by a farmer friend.
He wants to know what is the going rate for charcoal and who is going to buy it.
He's also curious as to how the EPA and private enviromentalists are going to react when several million acres of smoldering piles of charcoal start smoldering at the same time and who will replace the top soils lost by erosion when the land is stripped bare.
"

Besides, coal is equivalent to charcoal mixed with a LOT of toxic contaminants, including radioactives*. So how does it make sense to unbury coal to burn as fuel then bury charcoal?
Better to leave the toxics buried along with the coal, and burn agricultural waste as fuel. Still stupid for the reasons the farmer mentioned as well as a few others, but better than mining coal then burying charcoal.

* If a nuclear powerplant were to accidentally spill as much radioactives as a coal-burning plant releases during normal operation, that nuclear plant would be shut down.
#30
Hey Taz, I just came across that too, was about to mention it... NHC has released TCR's on both Dolly and Ike... Still waiting on Fay, Gustav, Omar and Paloma, coming soon no doubt...
Quoting theshepherd:
21 seastep
Ran that notion by a farmer friend.
He wants to know what is the going rate for charcoal and who is going to buy it.
He's also curious as to how the EPA and private enviromentalists are going to react when several million acres of smoldering piles of charcoal start smoldering at the same time and who will replace the top soils lost by erosion when the land is stripped bare.


Read it again. Not selling the charcoal. That goes into the ground. Selling some sort of biofuel (what that is, I don't know) that results from creating the charcoal that goes into the ground. Probably similar to ethanol in that it would be an additive.

As for the smoldering charcoal, that is explained too. It is not burning of charcoal per se, it is burning to "capture" the carbon, releasing mostly O2, leaving the carbon. The "net" emissions is very positive to the "less CO2" side. Quoting the article, "A little CO2 is released but the bulk of it gets converted to carbon."

There is no "stripped bare." This is done after harvesting the crops, ploughed back into the soil and planting the next batch of crops. Plants like carbon.

And, you got me thinking. Over time, that charcoal would turn into oil, no? So, renewable oil? Probably too long, though, to be truly "renewable."
Dry here and an above normal hurricane season. No, I don't like La Nina.
33. aspectre

Are you suggesting that the energy produced from coal can be replaced by burning crop byproducts?

And... I'm all for Nuclear. Would solve a lot of the issue and it is much safer than perceived, as you point out.

Energy is necessary. You can have all the electric cars in the world, but if that electricity is being generated from a fossil fuel, what's the point?
33. aspectre

And, actually, that suggestion is self-defeating. Burning the crop by-products releases CO2 rather than capturing the carbon as described.
35 seastep
Don't need to read it again. Reclaiming the charcoal was the intention.
I know what the process is. He's talking about burying the leftovers to burn in an oxygen deprived enviroment, thus creating charcoal.
And if you don't think that process doesn't release tons of stinky smoldering smoke, then you should review the South American and African charcoal industry.
And yes, the fields would be stripped bare.There is nothing in a corn field but corn stalks left after harvest. What is it exactly do you think he wants to bury and burn?
You need to read up on the pressure required and the depths necessary to create crude oil.
Quoting theshepherd:
In concern for my beloved oceans and the increasing acidity that appears to be having a negative impact on my beloved little coral thingies,I offer the following for review and comment:
Being a stubborn southern Cracker, I like to work on my own vehicles. When my AC compressor went out on my Suburban I decided to fix it myself. Bought some gauges and a how-to book and dug an old vacuum pump out of the,where did I get all this crap, pile and set off on the adventure.
In the intro section was a thorough review of AC theory. To my suprize it seems CO2 is an excellant gas for AC operation. It requires high pressure and any vehicle currently in use would require a costly retrofit to employ CO2 as a coolant. They mentioned future legislation on the subject. Haven't heard any more about it. Where do you get all that CO2 from?
Coal fired power plants are dirty beasts. Coal fired power plants with CO2 scrubbers are clean beasts. They are researching how to dispose of the CO2. Even considering pumping it down onto solid rock at high pressure to displace the water in the rock where it will be forever trapped. Interesting.
It is my desire to bring this technology into the sunshine in hopes that someone who thinks on a far grander scale than me can influence Congress to explore the validity of CO2 AC.
Please comment...
Action: Quote | Modify Comment


The answer is right here in this article :)

Link

I do not understand why this has not gotten much wider circulation.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Pat,

The lack of national media coverage infuriates me....

Gotta run! Really! : )


Dam broke? where?
I guess I am going to have to start reading the blogs backwards.. I see the kink questions has already been answered.. with the same article. I take it I am not the only one that has the drudgereport bookmarked.
40 Orca
Huh ???
Quoting theshepherd:
40 Orca
Huh ???


Your question:
They are researching how to dispose of the CO2. Even considering pumping it down onto solid rock at high pressure to displace the water in the rock where it will be forever trapped. Interesting.

The answer:
The biosphere pumps out 550 gigatonnes of carbon yearly; we put in only 30 gigatonnes. Ninety-nine per cent of the carbon that is fixed by plants is released back into the atmosphere within a year or so by consumers like bacteria, nematodes and worms. What we can do is cheat those consumers by getting farmers to burn their crop waste at very low oxygen levels to turn it into charcoal, which the farmer then ploughs into the field
I hear ya Orca.
But, the point of my post relates to using CO2 scrubbed from clean coal power plants as a refrigerant, thus making clean coal not only an alternative clean energy source but providing a needed by product for CO2 refrigeration systems. Making freon and R-13 the dinosaurs they need to become. The pumping into deep rock seems risky and costly and a waste of refrigerant gas.
Quoting theshepherd:
I hear ya Orca.
But, the point of my post relates to using CO2 scrubbed from clean coal power plants as a refrigerant, thus making clean coal not only an alternative clean energy source but providing a needed by product for CO2 refrigeration systems. Making freon and R-13 the dinosaurs they need to become. The pumping into deep rock seems risky and costly and a waste of refrigerant gas.


Ok, my misread then on the question.
I don't think BC even has a coal fired plant here.. I know we export tons of the stuff... but almost all of ours is water or natural Gas generated.
BTW, did it snow in Florida?
LSU-VA Hospital hearing set today at Capitol
Thursday, January 22, 2009
By Bill Barrow
Staff writer

Addressing several hundred New Orleans business and community leaders last month, representatives from the Louisiana State University System and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs spoke definitively about their plans for a $2 billion investment in a joint medical teaching facility near downtown. Link
39. theshepherd

Sorry all if this is long, got longer as I researched further.

Just discussing it as an idea and I thank all for the civility in this informative discussion.

Trying to understand how do you get "reclaiming the charcoal" from that article? Please quote.

Corn stalks get burned at low O2 levels trapping the carbon. We are discussing carbon emissions, right? And this would reduce it.

Stripped bare, yes, but actually leaving more fertile soil left behind for the next crop, if I am understanding this correctly:

Pyrolysis

Biochar:

"Residues of incomplete organic pyrolysis, e.g. from cooking fires, are thought to be the key component of the terra preta soils associated with ancient indigenous communities of the Amazon basin.[1] Terra preta is much sought by local farmers for its superior fertility compared to the natural red soil of the region. Efforts are underway to recreate these soils through biochar, the solid residue of pyrolysis of various materials, mostly organic waste.

Biochar improves the soil texture and ecology, increasing its ability to retain fertilizers and release them slowly. It naturally contains many of the oligoelements needed by plants, such as selenium. It is also safer than other "natural" fertilizers such as manure or sewage since it has been disinfected at high temperature, and, since it releases its nutrients at a slow rate, it greatly reduces the risk of water table contamination.[2]

Biochar is also being considered for carbon sequestration, with the aim of mitigation of global warming."

Found the biofuel in there too:

Biofuel

Pyrolysis is the basis of several methods that are being developed for producing fuel from biomass, which may include either crops grown for the purpose or biological waste products from other industries.

Although synthetic diesel fuel cannot yet be produced directly by pyrolysis of organic materials, one can can produce similar liquid fuel ("bio-oil") that can be used as a fuel, after removal of valuable bio-chemicals that can be used as food additives or pharmaceuticals. [4] Higher efficiency is achieved by the so-called flash pyrolysis where finely divided feedstock is quickly heated to between 350 and 500 C for less than 2 seconds.

Fuel bio-oil resembling light crude oil can also be produced by hydrous pyrolysis of many feedstocks, including waste from pig and turkey farming, by a process called thermal depolymerization (which may however include other reactions besides pyrolysis).

I'll stop there. Do you have any info on harmful byproducts, if any, that are released by this process? Would be interested to see that.

Hear ya on the crude... suspected that and why I said "probably too long." Just threw it out there since it popped into my head.
39. theshepherd

And, I am researching based on the concerns stated. Valid points that should be addressed. :)
Quoting Orcasystems:
BTW, did it snow in Florida?
Nope. We lost the precipitation possiblility somewhere west of Tampa Bay. Skies are clear,bright and dry as a catfish with ticks.
Maybe next week as the warming air tumbles and toys with the next cold front. Hope not. I'm all done with winter. Waiting for the snook bite.
Quoting theshepherd:
Nope. We lost the precipitation possiblility somewhere west of Tampa Bay. Skies are clear,bright and dry as a catfish with ticks.
Maybe next week as the warming air tumbles and toys with the next cold front. Hope not. I'm all done with winter. Waiting for the snook bite.


Thats the second time I have heard that today.. Surfmom is looking for them also.
What we can do is cheat those consumers by getting farmers to burn their crop waste at very low oxygen levels to turn it into charcoal, which the farmer then ploughs into the field.

SEASTEP:
What am I missreading here?
He doesn't mention Pyrolysis.
You are incorrect if you think charcoal plowed into the soil is a better soil builder than plowing under a crop and continuing to turn it as it degrades.
Stripped bare means that during the winter the wind and water erosion will pollute streams and waterways and result in quite often disasterous effects to the contour of the surface.
You should visit a construction site and see the erosion control measures required by law to retain the site after the topsoil has been stripped.
Heaven forbid a farm be located next to a trout stream and have silt cloud the water. The turbity required to result in a heavy fine is so slight that the human eye can not easily decifer.
His plan is not realistic.
I doubt seriously that compared to the amount of vegetation and forest covered lands that produce rotting matter, that the amount of farmed land would be a drop in the bucket.
RE: poll on when the first storm of the season will form. who thinks Ana will form
1 in January, February, March, or April.
2 May 1-15
3 May 16-31
4 June 1-15
5 June 16-30
6 July 1-15
7 July 16-31
8 After July

I will take door #2

RE: From Dr. Masters Blog:
For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average precipitation across the South, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states.
Farmers in South Carolina will not be glad to hear that. As you can see from the following graphic, there is no where in South Carolina that does not need water as of yesterday.

At the rate we are loosing top soil, many people are pushing for substainable farming. Composting plant waste & turning that into the soil instead of killing the GOM & other places with ferlizer run off. Composting is a wonderful natural way to carbon sink plant waste & make fertilizer. EPA even says so. I question the nematode, earthworm blames in that article. Starving earthworms isn't good for the soil either. The burning the extras as that article suggests is gonna really up your potash (which is burnt organic material, lower Oxygen the better), this is the 3rd # in fertizer. Provides much minerals, taste & greening but needs to be at the right ratio for each crop. So now your throwing the soil outta wack if you burn & bury & will need to ammend with heavy amounts of N & K...which is far from sustainable. Also what do these people plan on burning? Composting to big AG isn't usually an option since every part of most plants is sold for something these days..silage, ethenol, cows can eat the hulls of about anything these days with the emzymes the universities & companies have found to mix.

I did see an interesting article last week where growing more reflective strains of crops could really help off set some warming, sounded much more feasable.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats the second time I have heard that today.. Surfmom is looking for them also.
I'll probably find them in Sebastian before they make it around the horn. But, then she "did" threaten to head east first chance she got. And she is no stranger to Sebastian.
RE:55. Skyepony
Have family members who began farming using sustainability, natural farming methods. Unfortunately for them, it looks like the drought may have done them in before they really got started. They have not given it up yet. My uncle joked that they 'needed to weed around the corn patch, so they could see the corn'. The neighboring farmer's corn looked good though - have no idea what he was using, but I cautioned the nieces and nephews not to play in the field ;).
55 sky
I think the farmers know what they are doing. You're right about the potash. It's common to burn off a field to kill pests and weeds and then plow under. But, it's never to the extreme that the plant and root matter left behind is stripped away.
From the prior blog (Thanks Skye)
Quoting Skyepony:
Big chunk of Antarctica's pennesula is about to break off. POES flies over it a few times a day, for another few weeks it can't get a good reading through clouds but that's no reason to toss the data on clear days. Ecosystems are creaping toward the poles with record melts occuring in many places. The argument that the oceans are undermeasured, with satalites, countless buoys & even the cruise ships getting in on collecting data doesn't make much sense. Your not gonna find the data out there in a media article, you don't need to turn to research either. Start with the links Dr Master's left above & begin to learn about the satellites, find their data pages. It is out there & available to look at. Right around the 15th it gets grouped into a nice monthly package that is pretty easy to understand. Looking beyond the data it's obvious our world has gotten a little hotter. It would be irresponsible to throw the bushel out over a few bad apples.


RE: Buoys - I still would love if the numbering system made more sense. Especially as buoys are added. Perhaps the first 2-3 digits indicated the location (North Atlantic, Caribbean, Indian etc, etc) the next 2 digits the type of buoy and the last digits would be an individual number for that type buoy in that particular body of water. I know that I check the Folly Beach buoy daily for it's readings.

RE: Ships
An interesting adjunct to monitoring the oceans, I think. Very cool. For those interested you might find this site helpful.

RE:Satellites
I have been interested in figuring which satellites I am seeing above me. Even using REAL TIME SATELLITE TRACKING it is not as easy as I had hoped. (It does not help that I am usually not anywhere near my computer when I see the light)
There are other websites as well, I am just beginning this 'hobby' so I have not tried them all out.
I am hoping some of you could share the sites you use to track the satellites above your head.

Though I am not sure that I agree the above covers the oceans. Though it is amazing the coverage the ships give!

According to NOAA:
The ocean covers 71 percent of the Earth's surface and contains 97 percent of the planet's water, yet more than 95 percent of the underwater world remains unexplored.
That is an awful large part of the earth that has been ignored in this Global Warming Debate.

I heartily agree that most of us want 'the facts, ma'am, just the facts'. Both side are playing politics and (I suspect) fast and loose with statistics.

In any case - Whatever the facts on Global Warming are:
The US still needs a real energy policy

Pollution is still a hazard

We our depending on the wrong people for the energy that keeps us running (where is that good old American independence that has served us well in the past)

We give our jobs and money away, and wonder why our economy suffers

And we blame this political party, or that political party, or other countries, or corporate CEO's, etc, etc, ad nauseum

Be an informed consumer
Read the labels
Support your neighbor
Every day products made in the USA
KEEP IT LOCAL
RE: Buoys - I still would love if the numbering system made more sense. Especially as buoys are added. Perhaps the first 2-3 digits indicated the location (North Atlantic, Caribbean, Indian etc, etc) the next 2 digits the type of buoy and the last digits would be an individual number for that type buoy in that particular body of water. I know that I check the Folly Beach buoy daily for it's readings.

Ahh, but the numbering system is most of what you are asking for here.

The moored buoys do have the region specified in the first 2 digits. And any coastal ob station is specific to state in the last 2 digits. And more: here.

I will admit that the moored buoys only get basin in the first 2 digits for identification. They are trying to keep it all numeric for those (this is a big clue that if there is an alpha-numeric ID, that it is not a true moored buoy). I can imagine that one day we could have 999 buoys in the GoM and should leave open the ability to give that many a unique number.
Thanks Atmo
I heartily agree that most of us want 'the facts, ma'am, just the facts'. Both side are playing politics and (I suspect) fast and loose with statistics.

Statistics can show you anything you want them to and still be a completely legal/valid statistical analysis. To drum up an old phrase, "fuzzy math" has been showing up in climatology from all directions.
thesheperd

He mentions biofuel which is obtained through Pyrolysis. And, regardless, seems pyrolysis would be the preferred method. Have only been able to find positive by-products of the process. Doesn't mean there aren't negative, just can't find it.

This is intriguing to me and I am just trying to understand the feasibility.

For the soil, I take your word on it. Makes sense. But, still doesn't preclude using this method. Not up on agriculture.

As for stripped bare, really no difference than plowing under the the crop remains. Don't think we're talking charcoal bricks here. More like wood charcoal that breaks apart. No different than plowing under the crops... just plowing under without the O2. And, who said anything about stripping the topsoil, like in construction? Topsoil stays. Construction sites add all kinds of "hard" elements.

As for carbon going into a stream, isn't carbon used in water filters to clean the water? Or am I missing something? Remember, this is not coal. In researching the effects of CHARcoal runoff.... this is interesting:

Link

So wouldn't any runoff be cleaner? Don't claim to know and have tried to find info on it, but can only find coal related.

The thing with trying to compare to rotting matter is that rotting matter releases not only carbon, but methane too by the organisms that are feeding. It seems this process traps the carbon and precludes the organic feeding.
To follow up with my prediction from a week or so ago: Arctic sea ice growth slowed. When the Eastern US gets cold air from the Arctic, a relatively warm marine layer from the Pacific moves in to take it's place. The rate of increase of Arctic sea ice in the winter slows.

My next prediction is that the extent will go back to growing at a rate nearly parallel to the average, but naturally not as high as the average (only parallel).

Currently:


Do not take this as anything related to GW talk. This is weather and only weather as it was 2 weeks or less. On the scale of decades and centuries (no less than 120 years or so) it would be climate.
65. EvPv
Did the two times with back-to-back la Ninas coincide around solar minimum? Is there a place to check for this?
Quoting theshepherd:
55 sky
I think the farmers know what they are doing. You're right about the potash. It's common to burn off a field to kill pests and weeds and then plow under. But, it's never to the extreme that the plant and root matter left behind is stripped away.



you can believe the farmers have the soils best interest at heart
interesting work on the effects of ENSO events..

bobtisdale.blogspot.com
AUUUGGHHHH!!!!
Seastep your comments are always welcome at my house. But, let me hammer this into the ol' hat rack....LOL

NO: Stripping is exactly that. Plowing under never leaves the surface bare. There is always vegetative material holding the soil.
Please read up on farming practices.
NO: Not talking about carbon entering a stream.
Talking about silt. Doesn't matter if it's sandy silt or carbon silt. NPDES Phase II is a great place to start. Please read up on "Best Management Practices".

There is not quick easy blog discussion that will suffice. Too many quick and easy answers usually result in just enough info to be dangerous. As can be seen on this blog time and time again.
Just as watching too many animal shows on TV prompts some unfortunate souls to think they understand wild animals.

Just as watching too many animal shows on TV prompts some unfortunate souls to think they understand wild animals.

e.g. I just watched animal planet for 24 hours straight, so I am going into the Atchafalaya Swamp and play like I am Survivorman all by myself for a month and bringing nothing at all with me! I know what I am doing because I watched TV.
EvPv~ here's the ENSO 1/2...now go dig for the solar 1/2.
theshepherd

LOL. I can be dense at times. Have to really understand to accept.

Found a good article on Biochar and soil:

Link

Seems a little mixed, but erosion doesn't seem to be an issue. Actually says "as well as better water retention"

This four page PDF gives a nice summary of the process. I found it very informative.

It appears that, other than impacts on ecosystems, it's all positive if using the right Biochar.

Seems there needs to be some more research done, though. There doesn't appear to be any studies on the ecosystem impacts.

Hope researchers find it worthwhile to do so.
And, going off to check out NPDES Phase II
here's some sunspot data which you can use to estimate the timing of the max and min of solar cycles...
Link

you can download data here...
Link
69 atmo
yep
69 atmo and 74 thesheperd

LOL. It's even more dangerous with employees "fixing" their computers because they "know" what they're doing based on having set up a printer by themselves once.
I didn't question the farmers, just if the ones that wanted to burn all the plant waste knew how to farm.

Farmers usually do, but big AG doesn't have the soil's best intrest at heart..use it up & sell it to developers.. Soil is lost through more than erosion, the plants eat it. Fertilizers don't add back the loft that compost does.

KEH~ hope they do better next crop, sounds like some timely weeding or the 2nd plow before planting would have helped them. Nothing grows like something in compost.

As for sat links & such. There's a few satellite junkies that hang out in my blog keeping up with what's current. A great site for current events where you can begin to learn the different ones is CIMSS satellite blog. New in there is the fl freeze with data & info about the surface temp gathering MODIS. That's an eye opener for anyone that believes to gather temps we depend soully on ill placed themometers.
71 seastep
"erosion not an issue"?
"as well as better water retention"?

See there, you didn't read up on farming. "water retention". This is not related to what we were talking about.

There ain't no quick answers.
Let me know when you can tell me in layman's terms what "biochar" is.
77 the shepard:

Waste from woody plants, such as crop stubble or tree thinnings, is heated at high temperatures without oxygen to create biochar.

That PDF explains it in pretty simple layman's terms.

As for the root growth, etc. that is desirable to remain... it remains. Have now found a ton of stuff if you search biochar. All kinds of implementations. Even, for example, peanut shells which are currently just put into landfills. Can turn it into biochar fertilizer and retain 50% of the carbon and reduce the need for chemical fertilizers.

Again, haven't really seen anything addressing specifically the effects on surrounding ecosystems, other than that the runoff is cleaner, but that doesn't necessarily mean it can't have negative impact.

Interesting here:

Link

"...because biochar enriched soil retains water better. Not to mention that the runoff is less polluted, and so our environment also benefits."

Link

Seems very promising to me. From what I am reading, your concerns are addressed. Again, other than a real study on what happens to surrounding ecosystems from the runoff.
Skye
The drought was the last nail on the coffin last season. Eventually they hope to have an irrigation system set up. They did have some successes, other than the corn. I am guessing corn must take a lot of water.

Thanks for satellite blog link. I have added it to my satellite bookmark folder.
Not textbook terms.
What would a farmer or gardener call it?
Eureka!!

Spaceweather.com A very interesting site offers Satellite Tracker Flybys by US Zip or Canadian Postal Codes
KEH~ corn is hard. It took me 3 years to figure out how to get it to produce in my yard.

Seastep~ I've seen studies where forests droppings were collected & turned to fuel..eventually the forest dies because the soil becomes depleted. There is only so much topsoil.
80 thesheperd

Seems to me they call it biochar as in my previous link from "Organic Gardening" written by... farmers and gardeners.

Reposted Link

82 skyepony

Valid point. As are shep's.

The points are great and exactly what I am looking for. What's the downside?

In direct response.... you can make biochar from waste, peanut shells, lot of stuff that currently just goes to landfills.

Don't necessarily just have to stick to that one way of doing it (i.e., farmer doing it with his own crops).

Get the pitfalls out in the open and figure out a way to solve them, but if you can reduce carbon emission and create fertilizer, bio-fuel, and even pharmaceuticals, why wouldn't you? Of course, looking at the possible negative aspects and mitigating them.
lol~ It's another potash racket...It amazes me that they have a chemical replacement for burnt wood & vegitation~ bagged, ready to go on the shelves of Walmart for unknowing gardeners to buy & they call that potash too. If big AG convinced us to buy that than I see why energy & big AG would think this new form of potash/biochar would fly.

We are losing 1% of our soil a year. I don't see where using any part of the cycle for energy helps that. Composing it would be better for the earth but doesn't make the heat needed to power homes.
I think 2009 will be like 2007 in terms of storm numbers and perhaps strength, would not surprise me. La Nina's tend to form very strong hurricanes so do ENSO's. Mitch was in a La Nina, Dean and Felix were in La Nina's. Hurricanes Katrina, Dennis, Emily, Ike, Gustav, Wilma, Rita, were in ENSO years.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Eureka!!

Spaceweather.com A very interesting site offers Satellite Tracker Flybys by US Zip or Canadian Postal Codes
It is easy to use but gives limited information on a limited set of satellites. Heavens-Above is a more complex tool but it will give you a lot more information. It will also tell you about any satellite you see except for the intentionally unlisted spy satellites.
84 skyepony

Ahhh... I get it now. It's completely different. It is not Potash.

The big difference... Potash is biodegradable. Biochar is not. Carbon from potash goes into the soil and is released like any other carbon in the soil.

The carbon in Biochar remains in the soil for up to 5000 years.
Seastep~ for my final on this I'll give you a pro but it isn't burning crop residues..it's burning horse & cow residues (manure). These are much higher in N & K & in too populated an area go beyond some good compost for a given area to a large polluting factor. & they are already burning it for energy, looks like it is coming to Wellington, FL as well.

oh & Peanut shells are put to use in the manufacture of plastic, wallboard, abrasives, and fuel. They are also used to make cellulose (used in rayon and paper) and mucilage (glue).


LMAO press.
Newly Found Fault Could Cause US QuakeBy JON GAMBRELL, AP
posted: 4 HOURS 27 MINUTES AGO filed under: National News, Natural Disasters LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (Jan. 23) - A previously unknown fault in eastern Arkansas could trigger a magnitude 7 earthquake with an epicenter near a major natural gas pipeline, a scientist said Wednesday.

Haydar Al-Shukri, the director of the Arkansas Earthquake Center at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, said the fault is separate from the New Madrid fault responsible for a series of quakes in 1811-12 that caused the Mississippi River to flow backward.
Thats 50 miles north of my home in Arkansas Press...I think my house is "standin on shakey ground"...
There is a large natural gas pipe line running right through it.
tkeith....I thought of you when I read it....
88 skyepony

That's the spirit.

Wow! 9 tons per horse! Who knew?

Yes, well aware of other uses for various things. There's one prof who is having success creating biochar from garbage. Less in landfills, less carbon. win-win.

Still needs more research all around, but promising, imo.
86. LowerCal
Thank you. I have signed up and given my coordinates - I am ready!

Hey Press - Hope you got my email on the Wunderground Portlight blog
Quoting presslord:
Newly Found Fault Could Cause US QuakeBy JON GAMBRELL, AP
posted: 4 HOURS 27 MINUTES AGO filed under: National News, Natural Disasters LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (Jan. 23) - A previously unknown fault in eastern Arkansas could trigger a magnitude 7 earthquake with an epicenter near a major natural gas pipeline, a scientist said Wednesday.

Haydar Al-Shukri, the director of the Arkansas Earthquake Center at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, said the fault is separate from the New Madrid fault responsible for a series of quakes in 1811-12 that caused the Mississippi River to flow backward.

The only people who find what they are looking for in life are the fault finders. ~Foster's Law
Sorry could not resist.
KEH....will get John to send it to me....
Hi everyone,

some great links you all posted.. Skye , loved the one about buring horse s%!# for energy! LOL

Press, that article, interesting. I grew up in NE Arkansas right on top of the New Madrid fault....Blytheville, Ark. A few years ago they were the talk of the national news with predictions the "big one" was coming again.. all the big news stations were in Blytheville getting stories of people preparing. My family put a few extra bottles of water and canned food in the camper trailer and called it a day. ..never did happen..

Where is this new fault laying under Little Rock?

Quoting seflagamma:
Hi everyone,

some great links you all posted.. Skye , loved the one about buring horse s%!# for energy! LOL

Press, that article, interesting. I grew up in NE Arkansas right on top of the New Madrid fault....Blytheville, Ark. A few years ago they were the talk of the national news with predictions the "big one" was coming again.. all the big news stations were in Blytheville getting stories of people preparing. My family put a few extra bottles of water and canned food in the camper trailer and called it a day. ..never did happen..

Where is this new fault laying under Little Rock?

west of Marianna near the river Gamma..I think.
Gamma
I agree - some great links tonight.

Press
If it is dark enough in another hour we may be able to see the Hubble in the sky tonight

Starts 6:51pm WSW (alt 10)(Would that be about tree line?)
Max Alt 6:55pm South (alt 44)
Ends 6:58pm ESE (alt 10)

There are some others that should be visible, but the Hubble is the brightest
Thanks, Keith, I know where Marrianna, AR is, my Mother's Best friend lived there; we use to visit there as kids.

I would hate to see a bad quake under the Mississippi River, and under Memphis.. that would not be good.

Appreciate the info.
I am recieving classified info from Chief Standing Fish's information officer concerning the silent, colorfull submersibles that seem to be stalking Cpt JuJu.
As usual Toasted Critter, at Asst Chief Fuji Whara's direction, is having problems with his smoke signal O's revolving around each other and jumbling the smoke text.
It may be getting ugly.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment

Loyal troups of the Dominant Paradigm stand ready.
Shep,
Ummm... which troops would that be?
104

They be the BEST troops
I don't know Miss Nadia - sounds kinda fishy to me.
Quoting seflagamma:


Where is this new fault laying under Little Rock?



Faults are really everywhere.

My high school in Baton Rouge was built in the 60s(?) with most of the buildings straddling a fault. Not wise, but no one thought there would be a fault there, nor any movement. Wrong again, grasshopper. Slabs, walls, doors, and roofs had issues until it was all torn down a few years ago. Had to be, really, with the auditorium and cafeteria literally condemned.
Lots of studies on how ENSO provides natural variability to climate dynamics. But I have often wondered if ENSO has changed as a result of AGW. Here's a study that finds a relationship, but does not provide a causative link.

A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change

Jolle L. Gergis and Anthony M. Fowler. Climatic Change (2009) 92:343%u2013387
Reconstructions of past climate are important for providing a historical
context for evaluating the nature of 20th century climate change. Here, a number of
percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both
phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A total of 92 (82) El Nino (La
Nina) events were reconstructed since A.D. 1525. Significantly, we introduce the
most comprehensive La Nina event record compiled to date. This annual record
of ENSO events can now be used for independent verification of climate model
simulations, reconstructions of ENSO indices and as a chronological control for
archaeologists/social scientists interested in human responses to past climate events.
Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO reconstruction,
approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events
(i.e. both El Nino and La Nina phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period
alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These
results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial)
and anthropogenic background states.
As evidence of stresses on water supply,
agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into
how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority.

Could be that natural variation is not 100% natural anymore.

Ya'll remember my ENSO rant on monday? Part about how off the Dec models had mostly been off. They didn't forecast it so low & pretty much had this Kelvin wave end any farther cooling with a sharp rise mid Jan. I still stick by it remaining near steady til atleast Febuary, then perhaps a rise. I really don't expect to be in la Nina conditions long enough for it to be an offical La nina.

January models just came out. They have fallen in line with my thoughts somewhat but many are still bent on a very steep rise..
110. BtnTx
Mild weather here in Baytown Texas. Cold front is coming thru and then the weather in SE Texas will continue be mild. No complaints here as I just wanted to make sure our WUblog server did not go into hibernation before Ground Hog Day! I will check back in a few days to see if this blog still exists.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
.... Press
If it is dark enough in another hour we may be able to see the Hubble in the sky tonight

Starts 6:51pm WSW (alt 10)(Would that be about tree line?) ....
Depends on how close you are to the trees. ;^) 10° is about the width of your fist (thumb to pinky) held at arm's length.
I've noticed a large decrease in precipitation in late December through January here in Southern Oregon. Prior to reading this blog entry, I was convinced of an impending La Nina year. Two ski resorts around me, Mt. Ashland and Mt. Shasta, are operating on the absolute bare minimum snow pack; both mountains opened with more snow than they now have. It looks like this will be a long, dry summer if the current situation persists.
The Unisys site carries a good map of SST anomalies.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Good Morning everyone or anyone.....LOL
Link

Three children have been killed in northern Spain when the roof of a sports hall collapsed amid high winds, local officials say.

Two adults were also reported to have died in other storm-related incidents.

Torrential rains and winds of up to 172km/h (107mph) have been battering northern Spain and south-west France.

At least one million homes in France are without electricity, roads and railways have been blocked and airports ordered closed, authorities there said.

Residents in affected areas in both countries have been warned to stay indoors.

French weather agencies forecast the storm but it has affected a wider area than expected. A state of "red alert" has been declared in nine departments.

Huge waves swept in from the Atlantic overnight battering the French and Spanish coastline.

In France, the storm has caused havoc from the Dordogne area to the Pyrenees.

As it moved east, the torrential rains caused flooding in some areas prompting thousands of calls to the emergency services.

The force of the storm also led to the closure of airports in Bordeaux, Pau and Biarritz, and Toulouse.

Train services have also ground to a halt, leaving several hundred passengers stranded in stations overnight.

The sports hall collapse happened in the town of Sant Boi de Llobregat, near Barcelona.

"Part of the building collapsed, there were between 20 and 30 youngsters inside. We know there are some dead and 16 injured," a local government spokeswoman told AFP news agency.

Two other deaths have been reported in Spain.

A policeman was killed by a falling tree as he directed traffic in Galicia, and a woman was killed by a wall collapse, reportedly in Barcelona.


The storms are expected to spread eastwards on Saturday bringing the risk of further heavy rain, strong winds and disruption, BBC weather experts said.
Fallen trees in south-west France
Blocked roads are hampering efforts to repair damaged power lines

Although expected to weaken over the next 12-18 hours, parts of southern France could still see some damage, with the storm's strong winds funnelling through the Rhone valley overnight, BBC Weather's Liam Dutton said.

Hundreds of technicians had been deployed to try to restore power to residents by the end of the day, but blocked roads are hampering their efforts.

"The number of clients who are cut off from the grid is rising from minute to minute as the storm moves eastwards," Michel Francony, head of the regional electricity grid operator ERDF, told local radio.

The storm is the most powerful to hit the French region since December 1999, when 88 people were killed and some four million homes left without power.
Link

Loop as the system works its way in. Been quite a busy storm season thus far, it seems. Still in the peak.

Here's the image of the tightly wrapped storm prior to landfall:



The name of this storm was 'Klaus'.

Could be windy here in the next couple of days as another low moves in. Heavy rain and gale force winds are possible, as is the potential for yet more localised flooding.

This'll clear out by early tomorrow, and we may finally have a little break from the variety of kitchen implements that the Atlantic is throwing at us, as the high may build in. Possibility of snow in early February, but aside that looking fair for the next couple of weeks.



115. Cotillion 7:54 AM EST on January 24, 2009

Gotta wonder was the event that important if they knew it was going to be bad..
Quoting TampaSpin:
115. Cotillion 7:54 AM EST on January 24, 2009

Gotta wonder was the event that important if they knew it was going to be bad..


I expect they knew it was to be bad, but not that bad. Worst storm in 10 years or so for them, and it deepened pretty rapidly prior to landfall. Guess that's what caught them off.

As well, Americans (and Canadians?) are blessed that you have an excellent weather service with ample warning systems and so on. Over here, we don't have that. If a storm comes in, or a tornado, we're pretty much sitting ducks.

Warnings are there, but only if you seek them out. That's partly why death tolls can be quite high (Even higher than a fair amount of tropical storms and hurricanes) for these windstorms.

Unfortunately, I don't see it changing anytime soon. Not unless we had a Katrina scale type event.
Quoting Cotillion:


I expect they knew it was to be bad, but not that bad. Worst storm in 10 years or so for them, and it deepened pretty rapidly prior to landfall. Guess that's what caught them off.

As well, Americans (and Canadians?) are blessed that you have an excellent weather service with ample warning systems and so on. Over here, we don't have that. If a storm comes in, or a tornado, we're pretty much sitting ducks.

Warnings are there, but only if you seek them out. That's partly why death tolls can be quite high (Even higher than a fair amount of tropical storms and hurricanes) for these windstorms.

Unfortunately, I don't see it changing anytime soon. Not unless we had a Katrina scale type event.


Thats too bad because it sounds like it just from lack of effort and not having the imformation..
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thats too bad because it sounds like it just from lack of effort and not having the imformation..


A good example was when Frank rolled in over the Highlands.

The Met Office said on their website with code Red warnings that there is a danger to property and life with this system. It clocked winds beyond 100mph.

This was pretty serious. Did any media outlet pay any attention to it? No.

Only on the weather segment, which to be honest, seemed to downplay it. *shrugs.

Sometimes wish we had a similar weather radio concept that you guys have. I think that's a really neat idea.
Warnings are there, but only if you seek them out.

That is my experience also Cotillion.
Anytime I'm looking for storm info in Europe I really have to dig to find it.

108. Joe D'Aleo shows that La Ninas are more frequent in the cold phase of the PDO...

Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thats too bad because it sounds like it just from lack of effort and not having the imformation..


Sometimes with all of the information in the world, people don't pay attention. Galveston, prime example.. its just human nature.
124. HTV
Quoting pearlandaggie:
108. Joe D'Aleo shows that La Ninas are more frequent in the cold phase of the PDO...

Link

For Texas and the Gulf Coast La Nina means drought conditions, and when we do get rain it's usually comes with 100mph winds. Say it ain't so!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sometimes with all of the information in the world, people don't pay attention. Galveston, prime example.. its just human nature.


It just kills me to have to publicly agre with orca...but...in this rare instance I must...
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sometimes with all of the information in the world, people don't pay attention. Galveston, prime example.. its just human nature.
I was just thinking the same thing. Still, for those of us who do pay attention, a little heads up is nice.
Quoting presslord:


It just kills me to have to publicly agre with orca...but...in this rare instance I must...
Seems we were typing at the same time - So that makes two of us agreeing with Orca (shrug)
Greetings. Nice weather here again today (sorry), heheheheheh
84 F, N/E breezes, 51% humidity.
The Rains have not gone away, and the Dry Season has not set in as yet. Could do that, at any time now. So the gardens are still green, trees have not lost any leaves ( the forest around me is Semi-Deciduous, which means that about half the trees will lose their foliage in the dry season).
It is Dark Moon, which is the best time of the month for cutting down bush, if you do not want it to spring back up. Also, if you mow your lawn in Dark Moon, it grows slower before you have to cut it again. Check it out.
Spent the morning with cutlass and chain saw, directed by the wife.
Exhausting Day so far.....
POTTERY-Why does grass grow slower during dark moon?
130. beell
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sometimes with all of the information in the world, people don't pay attention. Galveston, prime example.. its just human nature.


Prime example of what?
Hydrus. It does not "grow" slower. It takes longer to grow back (not realy the same thing), if it is cut in the Dark.
This is old farmers Tradition.
It has to do with sap rising etc. It is always recomended to plant root crops in the dark moon, above-ground crops in the Bright moon.
Here, if you ask someone to dig a trench, pit, grave, in the Bright Moon, they will always complain. They say you will get far more dirt out of the hole in bright, than if you dig in the dark. LOL
I do know, for a fact, that if you cut Bamboo in the bright moon, it will be eaten by beetles in a couple weeks. Dark moon, it will last years. Never fails.......

Beel, see post 119 and thereabouts.
Dr. Jeff,

Thanks for this information. We're concerned that this may be a La Nina year again as minimal rainfall and snowpack has been the "norm" for two years now here in Northern California. Those of us called optimists are hoping for a huge late winter snowfall to take us through the summer but drought and fire are increasing worries for us just now.
Quoting beell:


Prime example of what?
human ignorance
135. beell
What was the death toll on Galveston?
30,000 of 50,000 evacuated
POTTERY-Very interesting, thank you.
Thank you for the sterling update.
beell thats the great unknown evidence suggests possible high numbers but may never know state secerts
I find it incredible, that information on the Death toll in Texas has been so hard to verify.
In Myanmar, China, etc, I can understand. But Texas ??
140. beell
Hey, Keeper,
Not sure about State Secrets. Official count for Ike on Galveston was about 5. 2-3 of these from medical complications tied to pre-existing illness.

Ike actually killed more people outside of Texas.
140.
hmmmmm..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
beell thats the great unknown evidence suggests possible high numbers but may never know state secerts

You must not have access to their Blackberry..LOL
thats a very low number when i seen pitures of refrierated trucks 3 and 4 at a time line up outside processing centre 1000 off 911 calls during the early surge with assistace needed trap by water then systems fail as we progress in to peak surge wind and rain stripping all those pens.clean and what about the group of partiers that were holed up in that bar to welcome ike 100 or more gone the entire event after was locked down no fly zones no pitures no press except ones that got in a few days later imo if this don't have cover up written all over it i don't know what else it could be
Just for information.
A recent Dengue Fever outbreak (generally denied, by the authorities) resulted in the deaths of some 10 people. There were several hundred confirmed cases (including me, and my wife, recently)

Now, we have a Yellow Fever Alert. Monkeys are being found in the forest, dead from yellow fever (confirmed by recent tests)
Yellow fever and dengue are similar in that the host is monkeys (and other mammals in the forest, but not as regular as monkeys) for both diseases.
Not a good situation.......
145. beell
Anyway, I was looking for an answer to what Galveston was an example of.
Thanks!

Forecast max time frame 48 hrs

A weak mesoscale convective complex enhanced by dynamic forcing along a quasi-baroclinic zone, is producing copious rain over the southeast, especially Georgia. Cyclogenesis seems to be occuring, as a 1040 MB anticyclone advects cold stable air southward, while a weak high over Florida is propagating warmer air northward. However, the dynamics doesn't seem to favor cyclogenesis at this time because, the air lacks dynamic instability, and heavily capped. In addition, the computer models are not expecting anything to form from this system. This system will gradually move eastward, and should leave the U.S within 24-36 hours from now. We should see calm weather in the SE over the next couple of days!

Thunderstorms should continue over the SE this afternoon. Nothing too severe should come out of this, however.





GFS 12Z
144 pot
That's terrible.
what kind of monkies?
Do you have a mosquito erradication program?
144
Lord Pottery
I wish you and yours nothing but the best in dealing with this Yellow Fever thing...
Sheph. Monkeys are Red Howlers and Capuchin.
There is an on-going eradication program, and info on radio and TV all the time. But is not posible to eradicate the mosquito in the forest. Where there are villages, towns etc, the trucks will come around, based on info from the Insect Vector Control Dept., to spray a mist from the back of a truck. This is not very effective, due to wind direction etc.
There is now an innoculation program taking place (this week), in areas close to where the monkeys are dying.
Going to get mine on tuesday, it lasts 10 yrs. Have not bothered to get one in years.....
Thanks Nadia.
Its never boring down here.....
pot
Love the Capuchins. Those Howlers will take your hand off.
Shame they don't have an airplane for the forest spraying. Would be the saving grace.
it is a good thing the weather is warming up again.

Us Floridians hate cold weather.....or just me lol
See ya'll been on the news wires too. There was an article about touring where Ike came in. 38 dead/40 missing.. I don't know..

Interesting stuff here from NOAA~ First Wintertime Observations Find Ozone Soaring near Natural Gas Field

Too bad not much new out of Madagascar.

Ya'll ready to lay any bets on which of these new invests deepens? Got a few gamely looking ones.
146. futuremet 'However, the dynamics doesn't seem to favor cyclogenesis at this time because, the air lacks dynamic instability ' Not sure if it is relevant, but I was surprised this morning that our BP has been rather stable and rather high. I expected to see the usual drop in pressure. Might be starting to drop now though.

Pottery
Glad to hear you will receive an immunization tomorrow. Denge fever was enough for you to have to suffer through. A sad reminder that even Paradise has it's problems.

154

This system will bring beneficial rains for some of the SE today, not a major severe event.

It is quite dry here in Central FL....too bad we won't get any rain sniff..sniff
Pottery - Will the dry season help?
Sheph. The problem with the spraying, is that the spray is not mosquito-specific. Kills a lot of other bugs too. Would be bad to eliminate the bugs in the forest, for obvious reasons. Then the birds eat the bugs etc.

There was a flare-up in the 90's as well. It is not known, why the monkeys have these flare-ups of Yellow fever. They carry the disease all the time, and only occasionaly will one see a problem.

The Caribbean Epidemiology center is based here. Also PAHO (Pan American Health Org), and they are usually on top of these things.

Dry season is a big help. Permanent standing water is always full of fish. Guppies, Quabines etc. In the rainy season, especially one as long as this one, temporary ponds and hollow tree trunks etc are the problem.
Even it the dry season, mosquitos will find enough water in bromeliads, which are filled by things like dew on the leaves.
We need more bats.....
If you are interested, Google Trinidad & Tobago.
Lots of stuff to find out.
Futuremet~ I'm crying with ya.

Pottery~ Careful what ya wish for...bats spread rabies around here. Most the local colonies here are infected.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Bats may or may not be the answer you are looking for. Rabies is a definite consideration in South Carolina. Do y'all have problems with rabies in T&T?
Bats, Man-Made Roosts, and Mosquito Control
Do Bats Control Mosquitoes?

Here is another approach
Dragonflies-The "Mosquito Hawk" of the Tropics


MODIFIED FOR CLARITY CAUSE I NEED ANOTHER CUP OF COFFEE
OK. I have to go.
We are Preparing for Carnival here. My Love is Pan Music. So I am going to hear the Bands practicing tonight.
Go to U-Tube. Search " Musical Vengeance"
and hold on......
Good Afternnon everyone- especially Pottery!
It is raining heavily right now in Barbados, temp. 76 degress ( very low fo r this time of day) pressure the sam steady 29 it's been for awhile, winds, lost the tradewinds, only 2mph from the SSE.
Pottery some remebrances and questions. first sssorry to hear about yellow feer breaking out once again. I can remember vividly it breaking out significantly enough this time of year, just before Carnival in '80 or '81 and the entire country had to be innoculated. For Trinidad it was quite a feat! School children at school, people at their workplaces, peole who didn't have workplaces lining up for miles to go to one of the big business houses, I remember going to Alston's..
Gov't and the medicaal autjorities including PAHO were really worried because of the million or so pepole expected to come in for Carnival-
It's amazing that thngs have not improved in the forests since then. and given all the environemtnal destruction ,I really feel for the monkey population..Aren't there any internatinal organisations that coud work with the monkeys to try to eradicate the disease?

Dites-moi- where is dry season? Are we ever going to have a dry season??? I can count on my fingers the number of clear days we have had since before Christmas and it was worse before that. We need dry season, so many things happen during dry season, let alone, especially here, recharging your body batteries and going to the sea, soaking up( in moderation) the sun, getting your psyche to turn back to its regular sunny self- I feeel as though I live in Cotillion land.

This sytem sat in the Stalntic for over a month; then despite the highs we strill had rain.now we have a BROAD upper level low-- what intersts me as well- all my coleagues-- is that the SAL was unbelievably heavy over al the islands for about the last two-three wekks- it has shifted more to the East into the North Atlantic, but is still vey heavy, much more so for this time of yeqr- maybe late february etc.- any analysis for a neophyte?
My advice to tourists- stay home!
mea culpa- so sorry- did not proffread what I wrote- am very sensitive about that being a teacher!
And now "proofread" of all things! Tried to stop it from going but off into cyberspace it went!
Quoting Bjanmama:
And now "proofread" of all things! Tried to stop it from going but off into cyberspace it went!

LOL
You post is perfectly understandable. Waiting with you for "any analysis for a neophyte?"
Maybe Futuremet will give a go.
168. Inyo
Yeah, La Nina really is coming back... too bad. It means drier weather in southern California, and if I end up in Vermont next winter, probably a really cold winter for me (I've always lived in California and am not sure if I'm excited about my first 'real' winter being a wicked La Nina one)
Looking at how these enso models have been doing...it's a hard thing to predict.


KEH~ nothing like Dragonflys

BJanmama~ thanks for the sal update..
170. Inyo
Skyepony, it looks like those models definitely have a bias towards El Nino rather than La Nina... they seem to always forecast warming.
Ah! KEH! Good afternoon, how are you? Have been scanning your comments with pottery- as you can see Paradise ( as you well know) does not exist- and many of the things we had hoped to eradicate have not been- much of the indiscriminate- and stupid spaying that goes on has caused unbelievable environmental damage especially to all insects, amphibians, birds etc. and yet NEVER eradicates the immediate problem which is the adult female mosquito.

Although I worked on a project several years ago, we still have the problem of barefooted people in the fields sparying gramoxone and other toxic materials banned in the US and in other developed countries, but shipped indiscriminately to third world countries and used most ridiculously- and yet we have gov't pesticide boards, soo. go, think!

We no longer have yellow fever in Barbados- was eradicated sometime ago, along with the natural environemnt, I would rather try to save the precious, special Trinidad environment than focus on eradicating yelow fever, which is largely isolated to monkeys in the southern forests There are so many people like Pottery in Trinidad who have been involved in environmental causes for so long- but there has never been a goveenrment that has taken a pro-active attitude to this, or even all the consequences- social and environmental to the continual destruction of the mountains and hillsides by illegal squatting- all the work that has been done in Trinidad has been done by caring people, like pottery and the environmental associations, but it it no where near what it should be given the very special nature of the place- the numbers of birds and other species, that are in the Orinoco basin, but many are also only indigenous to Trinidad.

Sorry Pottery, not trying to take your take- but my heart still lies in Trinidad and so these things affect me a great deal . Would love to hear your response.
171. Bjanmama - Though we need to be environmentally concerned in general, where ever we live - there are certain places that merit special consideration.
The Everglades, comes to mind. Here in South Carolina, I would place the ACE Basin (estuary) among those places. T&T (and much of the Caribbean) are among those special places.
Regarding Mosquitoes:
When I was growing up here in Charleston, spraying for mosquitoes was done in the wee hours of the morning by spraying trucks. You could hear the trucks coming (loud enough to wake you from a sound sleep) and I would run to close the windows (had no air conditioning). To me the stuff smelled awful.
A friend of mine who grew up in Central Florida, says that their spraying was often done during the day - and they would run behind the trucks. Yikes!
173. Inyo
I am not a mosquito eradication expert but from what I've seen it seems like most spraying of harsh chemicals screws up the ecosystems and kills the mosquito's predators which actually makes the mosquitos worse (as they develop immunity).

In California they sell a biological control that kills mosquito larvae. It comes in the form of little pellets, and I use it to kill mosquito larvae in pools of water I have here. It seems ot kill all of them within a few hours and works for several weeks. It is said not to kill other species... I wonder why that isn't used in Trinidad. Perhaps it is a different species of mosquito there that isn't affected.
Inyo~ certain ones like the dark blue one tend cold. Interesting to see somewhat of a pattern on the last event to this even as many models were wrong the same way around the same time in the last event..
Sorry- re the adult mosquito- It really is a matter of getting her before she lays all her eggs or rather before she moves from juvenile to full-grown adult mosquito- obviously this is not only a Caribbean problem, but if you think of all the deadly diseases in the tropics carried by mosquitoes- altho providing mosquito nets for children in africa helps- it is not the solution to the problem. And it one of the biggest health problems in the world, linked very closely to weather.

Pottery- how I envy you besides parang- God how I love pan- and keep hoping that with the tech., all the thigs we have talked about over the years of really promoting Pan ( which you hear in the background of nearly all jazz, R&B and other music now) came out the the slums of Trinidad and is the only new instrument created in the 20th century- and on OIL DRUMs discarded by the oil companies and then turned from gunky messes into beautiful instruments by the poorest of the poor- and then with the genius of composers who recognised the genuis of the art form, it exploded! I gone for now.
Quoting Inyo:
I am not a mosquito eradicatione ffort but from what I've seen it seems like most spraying of harsh chemicals screws up the ecosystems and kills the mosquito's predators which actually makes the mosquitos worse (as they develop immunity).

In California they sell a biological control that kills mosquito larvae. It comes in the form of little pellets, and I use it to kill mosquito larvae in pools of water I have here. It seems ot kill all of them within a few hours and works for several weeks. It is said not to kill other species... I wonder why that isn't used in Trinidad. Perhaps it is a different species of mosquito there that isn't affected.

Spraying worked, but the price was too steep.
I have not heard of anyone using pellets, here - we just do not leave standing water around.
There has been a real public awareness campaign. (Change water for your animals frequently, turn outdoor buckets, wheel barrows etc over, etc) And quite a bit has been done with drainage. - Simple and effective.

However, there is quite a bit of swamp around here. Charleston County Swamps. Almost half of Colleton County (to our south) is swamp. Can not do much about standing water in swamps (or jungles for that matter) Would not want to drain these, as the environmental impact would be devastating.

Enjoy your stay in Vermont. Pretty country, nice folks - Do you like maple syrup?
when something is hard to predict, it usually means our understanding of it is inadequate...sounds like another topic i've heard of a time or two!

173. actually, some of the most effective applications using DDT for mosquito eradication involve residual spraying inside dwellings as opposed to large outdoor application. by the way, have you ever seen the estimates of the number of people that have died due to malaria that otherwise would not have had DDT not been banned? it's quite a large number...
They've been spraying the Keys for years.
No shortage of wildlife there, for sure.
178. do you happen to know what they use in the keys? just curious...
Quoting pearlandaggie:
when something is hard to predict, it usually means our understanding of it is inadequate...sounds like another topic i've heard of a time or two!

173. actually, some of the most effective applications using DDT for mosquito eradication involve residual spraying inside dwellings as opposed to large outdoor application. by the way, have you ever seen the estimates of the number of people that have died due to malaria that otherwise would not have had DDT not been banned? it's quite a large number...

Same with food production in some of the poorer nations - DDT would have saved lives.

Farmers used DDT here in South Carolina, for years. Washed down to the marshes along the coast - did quite a number on the brown pelicans (like the eagle it was a soft shell problem I think - might be wrong on that).

I must say, though that the brown pelicans rebounded pretty quickly. Amazing just how quickly the environment bounced back after such heavy protracted use. I know this is heresy, but I have wondered if when there was immense need, if the application of DDT for short durations might be do-able.

(Stop throwing those rotten tomatoes at me folks - can't help the way my mind works)
179
Nope. Forgot.
But, there program is in the sunshine and on-line if you care to research.
Before they started the erradication programs ,way back,they captured something less than 200,000 in one night on,I think, Long Key.
A doctor measured the blood in the stomach of a single mosquito,extrapulated out to the blood loss needed to kill a man and determined there were like 50,000 more than needed.
180
it was "thin" egg shells...
Thanks Shep
180. did you know there's data to suggest that the study that tied DDT to soft egg shells was critically flawed and overlooked the role of malnutrition in the strength of the egg shell?

181. LOL..sucked dry by skeeters....sounds like a bad horror flick--oh, wait! it WAS a bad horror flick! :)
The DDT issue is a true shame.

They spray here in Broward, too. Have no idea what they use though.

Still need my misquito magnet, which works great when you keep it running. Even though I only have about 1/4 acre, bought the 2 acre model... neighbors are most appreciative... but complain when I don't keep it running... jokingly, of course. But, it works so well, it is noticed when I let the propane run out.

Too much maintenance for large-scale application, though. Wonder if they have ever thought of developing something similar for large scale use?

btw... bought from a co in Key West. ;)
186. Inyo
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Spraying worked, but the price was too steep.
I have not heard of anyone using pellets, here - we just do not leave standing water around.
There has been a real public awareness campaign. (Change water for your animals frequently, turn outdoor buckets, wheel barrows etc over, etc) And quite a bit has been done with drainage. - Simple and effective.

However, there is quite a bit of swamp around here. Charleston County Swamps. Almost half of Colleton County (to our south) is swamp. Can not do much about standing water in swamps (or jungles for that matter) Would not want to drain these, as the environmental impact would be devastating.

Enjoy your stay in Vermont. Pretty country, nice folks - Do you like maple syrup?


I do like maple syrup! I'll only be going if I get into the UVM grad program I applied to, though.

As for the swamps... in addition to all of the environmental costs, and increase in flooding, associated with draining wetlands, it sometimes doesn't work anyway. Mosquitos are more adaptable than their predators, unfortunately, so sometimes they just end up in the ditches and go back to breeding, with less predators. I did hear somewhere that when salt marshes were drained in the SF bay area to reduce mosquitos, the mosquitos were worse than ever in a few years.

Most things that have an environmental impact end up having impacts to human life too... after all we are part of the environment.

This DDT thing always comes up as an argument against environmental protections. There are usually two sides to anything... but is DDT really the only alternative that is as cheap/effective? We don't really know if banning it caused those human deaths, either, because it has cumulative effects, so continuing to use it might have caused ecosystems to collapse and all those people to die anyway. We won't really ever know, either way, I guess.
185. i guess the mosquito magnets really do work then, huh? i've never owned one, but i was always a bit skeptical.

i'll have to get one if this area develops a mosquito problem!
186. yeah, you're right...you would have a hard time proving that either way. the estimated number is staggering, though.
Seastep
Good luck with life in Broward.
You'll be fortunate if they don't cut back on those funds also.
Gotta keep up the image ya know.
even if you could completely eradicate mosquitoes from swampy areas, i'm not sure you'd want to as mosquitoes and their larvae are a food source for developing fish in marshy estuaries.
191. Inyo
Certainly, knee-jerk reactions to environmental issues DO sometimes cause much more harm than good. For instance, California's waterways are infested with a variety of invasive introduced plants that are causing a great number of problems, both to humans, and to the ecosystems. The only way to kill some of them is to use glyphosate (basically round-up) and you wouldnt believe the fit some people throw when we are 'spraying chemicals into our creek!'. Worrying about pesticide overuse is valid, but the thing is, all science points to the invasive plants being far, far worse for the ecosystems (and humans) than the round-up. Also, these people often live adjacent to ag fields that use far more toxic pesticides at far higher concentrations.

So yeah, it's hard to say about the DDT thing.. but i think the science very solidly points to it preventing birds from reproducing. Some may bring up the silly (and false) 'why do you think birds are more important than humans?' argument, but what would REALLY happen if most birds died? Many of them eat insects... so again, we may have just lost all our birds, had mosquitos develop immunity, and have even more people with Malaria. As another thought... DDT hits raptors especially hard and in many places raptors are the main predator of rodents. So you might just trade Malaria for the Plague. Which is worse? I don't want either!

Ecology is complicated business and we never really know if the decisions we make are correct.. the science is all we have really, and ecology is no more accurate than meteorology :)
186. Inyo

Valid points. No question, use whatever has the most best effective/harm/price ratio.

I agree that it is certainly a guesstimate as to the life loss, but even if it is way overstated, just a % of that is a huge number of lives.

The thing with DDT is, based on my understanding, that the whole reason for banning was that it was a carcinogen, but that has turned out to be false. Don't jump on me if you can dispute that. Inform me. Just my understanding.

In any case, whatever they spray here in broward is certainly not good for plants, because they send you a warning to turn off your sprinklers for two weeks if you pull from a lake (which I do).
186 Inyo
10-4 on the salt marsh mosquito.
If you ever want information from someone, tie him to a tree in the southern Everglades. In 15 mins he'll give you death-bed quality testimony. Much more reliable info gleened than using water boarding.
191. check this out....lots of information and references...

100 things you should know about DDT
LOL @ 193
196. Inyo
Yeah I don't know that DDT is that powerful of a carcinogen compared to other things in the environment. However, not to start a political discussion, but glancing at the junkscience.com main page, it looks to be a little um, right-leaning. I think I'll stick to the peer-reviewed journals - certainly 'pure' science has bias as well but it seems a bit better than a right-leaning (or left-leaning) website.
As to mosquito magnets - some people work quite well. Love to sit next to a mosquito magnet.

As to DDT - We used to run in farm fields loaded with DDT, when I was a kid, It seems to be more of a problem for birds - and what ever they are feeding on! As to the study being flawed, I do not know. But for whatever reason, our brown pelicans made quite a return after the banning of DDT, so I am going with DDT having been at least part of the problem.
If there are no inexpensive, less toxic alternatives to DDT- then, developing some, seem a better bang for my federally funded research buck than the phone survey I received yesterday.
196. you say that as if no politics enters peer-reviewed science! by the way, look at the references used in that webpage.
199. Inyo
I have a few friends who are mosquito magnets, it's great because mosquitos, at least the ones on the west coast, definitely don't like me. Oddly the ones in Massachusetts do like me, though.
alright...out for a while...have a good one, folks :)
The thing with DDT is, based on my understanding, that the whole reason for banning was that it was a carcinogen, but that has turned out to be false. Don't jump on me if you can dispute that. Inform me. Just my understanding.

In any case, whatever they spray here in broward is certainly not good for plants, because they send you a warning to turn off your sprinklers for two weeks if you pull from a lake (which I do).


I think you'll find that it was the dwindling Bald Eagle population that created the most alarm due to egg shell thinning. Though other birds suffered, the eagle got the most attention.
Doubt the spray is as harmfull to plants as the constant sprinkler mist would be to could cause respiratory problems in a county with so many elderly residents.
202. Inyo
Oh, politics definitely enter all science, but in theory a well constructed experiment should show no bias, or at least make the bias evident.

Science does lean left, but if you think about it... one party wants to provide you with funding and use your findings in policy, the other largely hates you and wants to take away your job. Of course they lean left... for the same reason most military people lean (or used to lean) right.

Getting global warming and other science issues mixed up with politics, however, is a disaster and equally the fault of both parties, I think.
Later Aggie
Quoting beell:
What was the death toll on Galveston?
30,000 of 50,000 evacuated


Compared to Cuba who got two Cat 5, with everyone evacuated, and negligible deaths.. the Death Toll was horrendous.. so your point would be?
I actually keep my county's mosquito spray scedule in my bookmarks. They get us by truck & airplane..that thing flys right over the treeline.. it's feaky getting sprayed like you were in a corn field.

The Ultra Low Volume (ULV) ground adulticiding units that are mounted on pickup trucks utilize Permanone 31-66 adulticide (permethrin) mixed with a mineral oil.

They don't say what they spray out of the planes.
202
I always thought that scientific inquiry was the most conservative of approaches.
I dissagree with the millitary analogy also.
If you face an opponent, you have to ask yourself questions that only those who have been there can fathom. Quite often, walking away is the best option.
Orca,
I think the confusion is:
Of the 40% who did not evacuate, how many are still missing or known to have died.
The concern is:
Why is it so hard to get that information
208. Inyo
Quoting theshepherd:
202
I always thought that scientific inquiry was the most conservative of approaches.
I dissagree with the millitary analogy also.
If you face an opponent, you have to ask yourself questions that only those who have been there can fathom. Quite often, walking away is the best option.


I think scientific inquiry IS conservative, but I feel like the 'conservative' party in this country isn't all that conservative, nor are the 'liberals' all that liberal. For insance, it would make sense for the republicans to be more concerned with conservation of native ecosystems than the democrats, but most aren't (with a few exceptions, for instance hunters, who are often republicans but most of whom care very much about preservation).

And you are right, I can't really conceive of what it is like to be a soldier/go into war, since I've never done so. And of course I am very grateful that people volunteer to do so just to protect our country. I guess my point was that at least in the past, the Republican party was perceived as more supportive of the military (maybe during Reagan and Bush Sr?) than the democrats.
207 KEH
With all due respect.
Where does all the cloak and dagger come from?
Why would the state suppress that info?
Oh Bald Eagles ((Staring and remembering fondly)

Lived in AK... majestic creatures that make you stop and observe in awe. They are huge and have huge nests. Mostly on the cliffs. Was lucky to have that experience, and not uncommon up there, which is a rare one.

It's alright to be jealous. :)
Quoting theshepherd:
207 KEH
With all due respect.
Where does all the cloak and dagger come from?
Why would the state suppress that info?

Not sure that it is cloak and dagger. I was thinking more along the line, that the co-operation and communication between agencies (counties, municipal, state, federal and all the others involved) may make a post Ike evaluation difficult. I have tried different sites, and can only come up with the 50 deaths, that authorities stated in September.
I may be looking in the wrong places though. I read the post IKE NOAA reports,(talked more about the type of damage to buildings and infrastructure - not $$amounts or deaths and injuries.)
Any ideas?
212. Inyo
how many are still missing/were never found?
Not even close to a conspiracy theorist, but the numbers do not seem to add up.

Don't think it's necessarily suppression. Think it's more "we have no clue, so we are going to error on the conservative side."

That is, if the evacuation #s are accurate.

Regardless, personally think the mayor of Galveston should be put in front of a firing squad..... a few miles S and it would have been much, much worse.
208
Maybe I just came up through the old school and can't understand why most people think that a conservative or a liberal would care more than the other about Mother Terra.
I honestly feel that a lot of people spend more time being told how to think than they do thinking. And the press does not much more than carry water for their owners.
Everybody wants an agenda. Same as Congress.
No way you can beleive that every issue has to divide down party lines.
When I was in college a liberal and a conservative were exactly that. I'm not convinced many even want to understand the other.
I was a liberal in college and returned to my childhood conservative ways as I aged. Much like Dennis Miller, I've seen both sides of the mountain. I prefer the side where a house is built upon a rock.
Wait, wait, wait folks, Inyo, Keh and others- Pottery & I seemed to open Pandora's box- I take everythng you have said, and understand but please answer me this: 1) I thought in the US especially after Rachel Carson's wonderful book and a lot of grassroots prressure, that DDT was banned???; 2) sceintific knowledge has clearly shown that DDT thins the eggshells of birds eggs and has a delitrious effect; two that raptors at the top of the food chain were rapidly becoming extinct, like the Condor and the bald eagle, because of DDT ( there are others- what we call gramoxone- can't remember what it is in the US is one of the deadliest); 3) experience as well as lots of studies have shown tht insects- whether to pesticides for commercial crops or the mosquito- become increasingly immune to these chemical products- which is why so many diseases previously thought eradicated are back knocking on our doors; 4) incresingly the biological products (which by the way- dare I say it- the cubans have done some of the best work on) are increasingly being used in the 3rd world because the work has done with keeping the ecological balance and not putting toxic chemicals into everything- and because it just doesn't work; 5) ok, it may work for awhile- just like taking Raid and killing off everything in your house does- for a day 6) KEH- the disgusting thing is we are still doing that sprayig here- and as soon as we hear the trucks we go and get Fido, the birds, my turtles, everything we can protect from it,including ourselves-bring them in the house and close the doors- our spraying is usually in the evening to get the mosquitoes) but we no longer have butterflies, bees, dragonflies or lightening bugs anymore- to see a monarch or a swallowtril butterfly is a moment of exhilaration- but we do have aphids, mosquitoes, African snails and every other noxious creature abounding.
INYO, I know of what you speak, having spent much of my childhood in California and my mother still lives there and I go there every year- but I thought Calif. had some of the strictest laws dealing with pesticides??

It may take longer, but science had shown that alterntives to toxic chemicals is the only thing we can use to keep a balance and so does ORTHO and all the other companies know it- they just want more financial incentives to do what they have already invested in.
Quoting Inyo:
how many are still missing/were never found?

I do not know..
2 weeks after Ike there were about 400 missing
I can not find an update since then
Good evening everyone.
Oh, quite interesting to read about mosquitos when the snow is still on the mountains visible from my window. I hope that the severe frost will kill as many of them as possible, so that we won't have many this summer. As for the problems in the Caribbean I hope that you find a way to get rid of them. The pellets sounded quite good for it. I have never heard of them though. How come that an apparently good solution is not promoted to be used in countries which need it?

A page or two earlier someone requested information about severe weather in Europe. Meteoalarm is quite a decent one although it sometimes lags a bit behind recent events.
At the moment, 21:40 UTC, the metoffice.co.uk has issued a weather warning and if you look on the rain radar you can see why. Not mentioned on the meteoalarm page yet though. I'll keep on looking at it to see when they update it.
218. Inyo
California does have strict pesticide laws, the herbicide we want to use is the least toxic one possible, less toxic than many organic methods, people are just scared of it since Monsanto makes it, which is understandable.

As for the human cost of DDT I think the resistance is the strongest argument against the whole 'DDT Saves Lives' thing... there is no evidence it would have kept working, it would probably kill all the other insects, like pollenators, etc, and keep the mosquitos in the long run
Bjanmama
As far as I know DDT is banned in for use within the USA and banned from selling it to others outside of the country. Not sure if it is produced else. And perhaps it is a limited ban?
But it was used extensively about ummm... was it 30 years ago?
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Bjanmama
As far as I know DDT is banned in for use within the USA and banned from selling it to others outside of the country. Not sure if it is produced else. And perhaps it is a limited ban?
But it was used extensively about ummm... was it 30 years ago?


Which, in turn, bans it everywhere... patent.
211
No ideas. But I guess that's my question.
"Why are you looking for more than reported"?
"Why do you think there should be more"?
I think the obstinate press did more to raise paranoia than warranted.

10-4 on the interagency cooperation.
Everyone forgets how FEMA works. You have to request their help. Not roll belly up and point fingers because your elected officials are a bunch of argumentative failures.
Watching the State of Fla work on the eave of a dissater is a beautiful thing. Egos go out the door and agencies join together with a smooth flow of information,instructions and staging of energency supplies and crews.
We've learned our lessons well.
check that

DDT was subsequently banned for agricultural use worldwide under the Stockholm Convention

That being said, it seems it is in limited use.

Problem is, African nations, where it would be of greatest benefit (and probably only place where the benefits outweigh the negatives), don't have the resources to develop it on their own and no one will sell it to them either.

I think. ;)
shep

hear, hear.

All local folks have to do is model after FL.

If they don't? Well, you get the govt you deserve (elect).

Forget feds. In these situations, local is way, way more important and directly responsible for positive/negative result.

Time, building codes, etc.

Modified to add building codes, etc.
Seastep
You should take a trip down to Flamingo(Everglades Nat Park) while the weather is keeping the skeeters down and view the eagles there.
I've got eagles out my back door here in N Fla year round.

For the record, many areas in S America are a constant user of DDT. Carefull what you eat.
taistelutipu, regarding pellets
Inyo, do you know if it is primarily for small application? Seems logistically difficult for jungle and swamp. And salt water marshes need not be included in the mix at all. At least around here, with the tides in and out.

Come on Shep, 2 weeks after a major event, and those are the final numbers? I had hoped that they found some of those 400 people listed as missing.

Like Florida, South Carolina has procedures in place, and co-operation is at a maximum. There are joint conferences, and everyone knows what their responsibilities are.Did pretty well for Hugo, and things have been markedlty improved on since then. (2008 South Carolina Hurricane Guide) In addition, most folks here, know that the ultimate responsibility for their families is in their own hands.

I agree with you about FEMA (in fact, the feds in general), can not do anything without an invite. Personally, I believe that somewhere along the line, many states and local governments seem to have abdicated their responsibilities and hoisted them on an agency that was never designed for that purpose. If I remember correctly, FEMA was designed to help post-event with logistical aid and financial assistance.
215
FYI
I don't know what kind of spray you use there.
But mosquito spray kills mosquitos. It coats the surface of their breeding grounds with a film that suffocates them.
To think that dogs,cats,plants and people not suffering from chronic respiratory illness would be negatively affected is unknowing at least.
Thanks, shep, didn't know that. Only been here since 2004... and finally found a permanent home.

Will do.

But, bald eagles are different. Can't put my finger on it (they are bigger, but...), but something is just different.

Good choice as a national symbol, imho... and maybe that's a part of it.
228. Inyo
Quoting KEHCharleston:
taistelutipu, regarding pellets
Inyo, do you know if it is primarily for small application? Seems logistically difficult for jungle and swamp. And salt water marshes need not be included in the mix at all. At least around here, with the tides in and out.

Come on Shep, 2 weeks after a major event, and those are the final numbers? I had hoped that they found some of those 400 people listed as missing.

Like Florida, South Carolina has procedures in place, and co-operation is at a maximum. There are joint conferences, and everyone knows what their responsibilities are.Did pretty well for Hugo, and things have been markedlty improved on since then. (2008 South Carolina Hurricane Guide) In addition, most folks here, know that the ultimate responsibility for their families is in their own hands.

I agree with you about FEMA (in fact, the feds in general), can not do anything without an invite. Personally, I believe that somewhere along the line, many states and local governments seem to have abdicated their responsibilities and hoisted them on an agency that was never designed for that purpose. If I remember correctly, FEMA was designed to help post-event with logistical aid and financial assistance.


In CA, the salt marshes were mostly only a problem after people tried to drain them, it messed with the tides and changed them to brackish marshes which mosquitos love.

I'm not sure what the story is with the bits, they have some sort of Bacillus pathogen that kills mosquitos. Perhaps they are impossible or expensive to produce in large scale. Mosquito fish are often also used on a small scale... they can sometimes be harmful to native fishes, but often times a small native fish can be used instead.
Interesting stuff here
But I am on Cooking duty.
Later........
I see pottery... hit and run. ;)

Enjoy your dinner.
The new Orleans Spring Walk meeting is at 5pm CST if anyone wants to drop in.


Blogger tkeith,myself,and 2 others are meeting to discuss specifics and info for a few hours.


Wu-mail me for the local addy.

Quoting Seastep:
Thanks, shep, didn't know that. Only been here since 2004... and finally found a permanent home.

Will do.

But, bald eagles are different. Can't put my finger on it (they are bigger, but...), but something is just different.

Good choice as a national symbol, imho... and maybe that's a part of it.
Those "are" Bald Eagles down at the park. And they "are" big.
You "have" to go now....LOL
Don't forget the camera, binoculars and bug repellant. Mosquitos are low, but they ain't nonexistent.
Come back and tell me what you found.
Bald eagles in FL? Really?

Off to fact-check that one.
Wow. Seriously, thank you. Never knew. Gonna show the kids.

Bald Eagle Nest Data Search Results: Results per page:
Nest ID County Longitude Latitude Township Range Section Last Active Distance
View History BO002 Broward 80 25.59 26 00.44 51S 39E 15 2008 21.31
View History DA003 Dade 80 21.94 25 51.05 53S 40E 08 2008 29.97
View History PB005 Palm Beach 80 12.00 26 34.50 45S 42E 06 1991 21.13
View History PB013 Palm Beach 80 15.51 26 37.08 44S 41E 28 2008 23.87
View History PB018 Palm Beach 80 10.29 26 32.70 45S 42E 16 2005 19.45
View History PB019 Palm Beach 80 31.08 26 24.30 46S 38E 35 2007 18.93
MS Excel icon MS Word icon
You had me all excited shep.

The "northern" bald eagle is slightly larger than the "southern" bald eagle.

Not AS big. ;)
Still going to check it out in person, though.
In "nature" mode... took the kids to a preserve today... no eagles, but good stuff.
Quoting Seastep:
Bald eagles in FL? Really?

Off to fact-check that one.
Seastep
We've already had this discussion. "Can" it with the blogs and fact checks...LOL
Go outside in the morning, get in the car, drive to Flamingo and look up and out the window to the right when you come to the marina turnoff.
Thanks shep, sans sarcasm, but still excited to see them (outside a zoo).

Maybe a little excursion for tomorrow.

Won't be quite the same as seeing them on the cliffs, but...
238
Theshepherd
Hey Shep.. I live on Bald Eagle Lane and have three of them in a nest just down the road! Since I am south of the M-D line, do I have Northern or Southern Eagles?
These birds are BIG, just as big as the Ospreys.. on a calm day you can hear them coming!!!
Quoting Skyepony:
... airplane..that thing flys right over the treeline.. it's feaky getting sprayed like you were in a corn field.

...They don't say what they spray out of the planes.



That'd have to be a bit un-nerving - getting completely, all over everything; plus, not knowing what it is! Nothing about that sounds good to me, Skye! How often do the planes spray?
Quoting MissNadia:
238
Theshepherd
Hey Shep.. I live on Bald Eagle Lane and have three of them in a nest just down the road! Since I am south of the M-D line, do I have Northern or Southern Eagles?
These birds are BIG, just as big as the Ospreys.. on a calm day you can hear them coming!!!
Until Seastep checked his "factcheck"...LOL didn't really think there was much of a difference as eagles migrate long distances.
The ones in my back yard here in N Fla make an Osprey look like lunch. And mine aren't small ospreys by any means.
We had a couple of local ones come in for rehab while I was hanging around the local zoo and those suckers were huge.
Dragonfly probably has a better handle on your question.
242
Thanks
I haven't seen the Eagles nor the Ospreys for a couple of months... must have gone to Fl. for the winter:
hmmmm? snow birds
Southern Bald Eagle - ACE Basin South Carolina
Actually, it is the only representative of the group of eagles known as sea eagles in the New World. Except for the rare golden eagle, the bald eagle is the largest raptor in South Carolina, with a wingspan of 180 -230 cm (70-90 in).


At Magnolia Gardens they have a Wildlife preserve. Osprey and Bald Eagle fought over a duck. If I remember right, it was the eagle that plucked the duck out of the pond, and the Osprey that ended up with it. But it has been a long while, so I may have it backwards. Could always tell when the eagle was hanging out, cause the ducks would hide in the reeds. Otherwise, they would be in the middle of the pond.
Quoting MissNadia:
242
Thanks
I haven't seen the Eagles nor the Ospreys for a couple of months... must have gone to Fl. for the winter:
Bald eagles mate for life. In South Carolina, eggs are laid in late December to early January - They are just busy MissNadia ;)
Have a good evening, folks. Later.
Thanks KEHC
You sure have a lot of "book learn'n" LOL
Quoting MissNadia:
Thanks KEHC
You sure have a lot of "book learn'n" LOL

Nahh... I have google book marked.
Well, this is the thirds time I am trying to respond- and when I see your comments, it only gets better and better- i was going to say

Skeypony- you all don't have anything to say about being sprayed as though you were crops or the "enemy" in viet-nam?? No one says anything?? We are going thorough the same thing and given the absolute stupidity of our sprqying- I had said in a past post (one of two) that somehow didn't make it- that we take our dogs, cats, even my tortoises- when I hear the trucks coming- if I am fortunate to be home- they want us t open everythng- lots of us ckose up everythng- cant't do a d..m thing about the other creatures,

Know it was never posted- but you need to know here in Paradise ( which is finally taken seriously by orinthologists, amphibin sould etc, etc.) to see a butterfly, or a dragonfly,and I am trying to save all the time the poor lightening bugs- the amount of chemical toxins here is unbelievable-- and even though I know it still goes on to a certain extent in th US- i thought Shepherd and INYO stated DDT and similar pestisides were outlawed- ut other posts suggest that they can still be used in "limited"use and others were suggesting that Africa get DDT- My god- what we know is the biological warfare and indigenous understanding- which was suppressed because MONSANTO was best is not best-

I have to leave for a time-people comimg- sorry my earlier posts didn't make it becuse they were more relavant and asking for answers.
BJanMama~ If you notice on that site you can request to be sprayed.. I didn't see a form to request not to be sprayed. I close the windows & dump the pony's water in the morning. There was some areal spraying a little south of here, citrus...made horses sick, the vets got it stopped from what I heard.

MLC~ during summer the plane would fly my area 2Xs a week & the truck usually once.
There's a good Chronology of Insecticide Resistance in Florida Mosquitoes table at the bottom of this page. Looks like they became resistant to DDT through out the state in 1955.

seastep- just my two cents, but I live in Jacksonville, Florida, and yes we have bald eagles.
Beg pardon Skepony, KEH, Shepard INYO and others; but company came with wonderful gifts- like Hennessey brandy and glasses and other things from a cruise- it was like christmas allover again-- please uderstand skyponey that I live in Barbados and we have no control over what they spray on us- could be napalm- because the population is so laid back re spraying- which the've gotten used to all their lives- and hate mosquitoes--That is a serious problem throuthout the Caribbean-

Now you all are getting into serious stuff re water, soil retention etc. and the eagles, and Osprey etc, which i mentioned in an earlier post--I think it is great and is stuff I am really interested in- sorry tonight I cannot keep this up- and afraid unlike GW, it will disappear into the archives- but I love you guys! You have really been getting into the necessary physical substance of life on earth and and our survival mechanisms, as we try to figure out for the first time since the 15th century how to co-exist, rather than conquer "nature" and that is great!
Boy, am I really sorry to have missed all of that.
Had to go and listen to some music (fantastic), then was my turn to cook.
Dropping in

We had a good amount of rainfall across the island today. I would really like a dry period, though.
Long time no see, Stormdude.
A couple showers here today. I am enjoying this dry-season !!
Good to see ya Pottery...I've been really busy with my MET classes (day and night)...

TTYL
258. ayi
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 3:45 pm WDT on Sunday, 25 January 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Wickham to Exmouth.

At 3:00 pm WDT a developing tropical low was estimated to be 205 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 245 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and moving west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour parallel to the Pilbara coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight as it continues moving west southwest parallel to the coast. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas this evening but gales could develop on Monday or Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 18.7 degrees South 117.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Wickham and Exmouth should listen for the next advice. The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm WDT Sunday 25 January. Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
DEPRESSION SEVEN-F
18:00 PM FST January 25 2009
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, DEPRESSION 07-F (1007 hPa) located at 24.0S 163.5W is reported as moving south-southeast at 20 knots. Position FAIR based on GOES infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperatures is around 26C.

The system lies in an area of moderate to strong vertical wind shear with northwest winds of 30-40 knots aloft. Deep convection remains to the east of an exposed low level circulation center. TD SEVEN is moving further south into cooler sea surface temperatures and has lost all tropical characteristics.

Global models continues to steer the system southeast and deepens it slightly

THIS IS THE FINAL TD SUMMARY ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM

System #2
---------

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1005 hPa) located at 13.5S 177.0E is reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C.

The system lies embedded in a monsoonal trough, under the 250 HPA subtropical ridge in a moderately sheared environment. Low level circulation is just beginning to consolidate, however convection is still disorganized around the center. An active convergence to the north maintains west to northwest surface winds of 20 to 25 knots in the northern semicirle., slightly displaced from the center.

Global models [US/UK/EC] has picked up the system and moves it east and then along a general southeast track with slight intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FOUR
Tropical LOW 06U
6:50 PM WDT January 25 2009
===============================

At 6:00 PM WDT, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 18.9S 117.2E or 215 kms northwest of Port Hedland and 205 kms north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west-southwest at 11 knots.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight as it continues moving west southwest parallel to the coast. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas on Sunday evening but gales could develop on Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Wickham to Exmouth.
Question to anyone please? Could this potential La Nina event be the cause of the almost abnormal rainfall in Trinidad. It feels more like June here than January.
normally this is when the grass starts to become dehydreated and makes gardeinig easy, however my garden is overrun by weeds like June.
Quoting aquak9:
seastep- just my two cents, but I live in Jacksonville, Florida, and yes we have bald eagles.


We have them too Aquak - saw one while I was sailing in a lake here.
Quoting melwerle:


We have them too Aquak - saw one while I was sailing in a lake here.


we see them frequently here...
Seastep.. Forida is only behind Alaska in Bald Eagles. I remember fishing in the backcountry.. Little Shark river.. out of Flamingo as a boy(60's) and although the Eagles were on the brink of extiction eveywhere else in the lower 48, they were all over down there. Just a month ago I watched a Bald Eagle take a mullet away from an Osprey.. first time in 5 years I have seen an eagle on the river. 10 years ago, one would come perch on the golden ball at the top of the mainmast on an anchored sailboat day after day.

Back in '76 I was at a lecture required for my pesticude license and overheard the Homestead farmers behind me bemoaning the loss of DDT. Two said they had tons hidden away. A big issue with DDT is that it is so indescriminate. It kills everything, totally interrupting the food chain and it's ability to be absorbed means it gets passed up the food chain into the apex predators.

Parathion once poisened and killed a neighbor who improperly mixed his chinch big spray, Malathion is another bad one.
Spent the day on Lake Woodruff yesterday. More/.PDF
It's a little difficult to get to right now due to the low water (feast or famine) - you have to traverse long manatee zone canals and/or "mud lakes" (12" water above 4' mud) , but the lake itself is beautiful & there are eagles & osprey outthewazoo. The water is even lower than at this time last year, and we are looking at below normal rainfall ahead.
I will be doing an update tonite at 9pm. On that update i will have a SuperBowl Fundraiser Pool for PortLight Relief Fund. If you particitpate it will be an honesty system but, alot of fun and serving a good cause. Please come to my Blog tonite at 9:30pm and be one the first to sign up as the early bird gets the best pick. This will be fun. Don't forget tonite at 9:30PM. Thanks!
267. P451
Looks like the midatlantic region has a good chance to get their first good snowfall of the year - and probably in years. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

4" Snowfall Probability Tuesday:




Quoting jaikishan:
Question to anyone please? Could this potential La Nina event be the cause of the almost abnormal rainfall in Trinidad. It feels more like June here than January.
normally this is when the grass starts to become dehydreated and makes gardeinig easy, however my garden is overrun by weeds like June.


Good morning everyone! I hope someone answers your question jaikishan because just before I got so caught up in bald eagles, DDT etc. last night I mentioned the fact that we have not stopped having rain (as very late or early am did Pottery and StormDude )

October2008 holds the record for the most rainEVER in Barbadian history 15".

From before Christmas there was a system stretching from Africa to Brazil that took weeks to dissipate and kept crwling up to us and it rained nearly everyday and it has not stopped, not unusual for Brazil this time of year of course, but we also keep having these lows and troughs in what is supposed to be dry season- as in zero rain- and it poured again yesterday..so after reading Dr. Masters and the Julian Madden Oscillation info, I began to wonder. Hope we get an answer- if not I'll bring it up again tonight. Thanks
You guys are talking about bald eagles at the same time that we are getting our first nest back since Katrina in a state park about 4 miles from my house. (near Covington...north of NOLA)

Video: Bald eagles return to Fontainebleau









Edit: Embed doesn't seem to want to work. Here is a link: NOLA.com Video

Oh, and I hear ya, Skye. Anytime we are getting enough rainy periods that nothing seems to dry out, we get the low flying airplanes crop-dusting our neighborhoods. I, too, would like to know what it is. Withholding judgment...
Tropical low off WA coast could develop into cyclone: Weather Bureau
Monday January 26, 2009 - 02:15 EDT

The Weather Bureau is predicting a tropical low out off the coast of Western Australia will develop into a cyclone.

The tropical low system is moving south off the north-western coast, and is currently 200 kilometres north of Karratha.

At this stage the Weather Bureau believes it will develop into a Category 1 cyclone by morning, and could intensify into a Category 3 storm by Tuesday.

A blue alert has been issued for communities at and surrounding Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier, with residents advised to take immediate precautions.

Gales are also expected on the coast between Karratha and Exmouth within the next 24 hours.


- ABC
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 1:05 am WDT on Monday, 26 January 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wickham to Exmouth.

At 12:00 am WDT a developing tropical low was estimated to be
235 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
350 kilometres north northeast of Onslow and
moving west at 17 kilometres per hour parallel to the Pilbara coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone later on Monday as it moves west
southwest parallel to the coast. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per
hour may develop in coastal areas on Tuesday if the cyclone takes a more
southerly track than expected.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 18.7 degrees South 116.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Roebourne, Wickham, Point
Samson, Karratha, Dampier and surrounding communities should start taking
precautions.


The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Monday 26 January.
272. bcn
Storm Klaus.
12 deaths in Spain (4 children), 18 in Europe, plus several more persons in hospital intensive care units and extensive damages, power lost train and other communications broken.
(Moreover Spain government says it is impossible to predict an storm !).
Link
atmoaggie - Glad your eagles have come home to roost. Thanks for the link

AussieStorm - will be watching with you.

bcn - What a terrible toll these winter gales have on Europe. They must move east across the Northern Atlantic faster than our tropical storms move west to the Americas. Not as much warning?
274. bcn
Quoting KEHCharleston:

bcn - What a terrible toll these winter gales have on Europe. They must move east across the Northern Atlantic faster than our tropical storms move west to the Americas. Not as much warning?


Thanks for your support.

Warnings has been near than null. Just a few warnings about sea state at the nord of Spain.

In fact, all death childrens was a beisbol team. After storm start, they look for security in a sport hall whom collapsed.

This is quickscat of the day:
Link

I assume 60KT. And no idea of what to expect tomorrow.
#269 atmoaggie- thanks so much for sharing that video with us- that is really good news. Bird Watchers in NOLA must be quite excited to see them return.
I worry about the Ivory billed woodpecker that was sighted a couple of years ago- had hopes that there might have been some reproduction, which also would be great, the thought of forever losing such a magnificant bird is really sad
afternoon everyone.
The NHC has finished the post-season report on Hurricane Dolly

It's a PDF.
Good morning hurristat
Do you have the link for post-season report for Ike?

Thanking you in advance
They've also finished the PSR for Hurricane Ike. Ditto for the format.
280. beell
Thanks for the links hurristat. Got em saved for future reference.
Quoting beell:
Thanks for the links hurristat. Got em saved for future reference.


Actually, this may be more helpful than the two links alone: NHC Archive of Hurricane Seasons. You can scroll through the years that they have been online, plus scanned reports for seasons when they were typed by a typewriter or an early computer. Click on 2008 and it gives you the links of the finished storms. For the scanned reports, the prenhc/ section is pretty much the PSR, just to make it easier.
Quoting hurristat:


Actually, this may be more helpful than the two links alone: NHC Archive of Hurricane Seasons. You can scroll through the years that they have been online, plus scanned reports for seasons when they were typed by a typewriter or an early computer. Click on 2008 and it gives you the links of the finished storms. For the scanned reports, the prenhc/ section is pretty much the PSR, just to make it easier.

Just what I need. I am not sure why I have such a difficult time finding these things on NOAA/NWS/NHS sites.
I do appreciate it - Thanks.
Hi everybody just checking in on all and of course the weather.....

I see Bald Eagles and mosquitoes are of topic with the possible of another La Nina or at least a 50/50 chance anyway....

I'll keep checking in from time to time to see everybody and whats going on.....
You all have a great weekend, whats left of it anyway....

TTYL
Taco :0)
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Just what I need. I am not sure why I have such a difficult time finding these things on NOAA/NWS/NHS sites.
I do appreciate it - Thanks.


If you are really hardcore, and you want some data, here is an even better website (run by NOAA)ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/archive/HURDAT/. It has all the data (wind speed and position) for unnamed tropical depression 1967-1987, all tropical storms (and higher) from 1851-2007 (soon to add 2008) and eastern pacific tropical storms 1949-2007 (soon to add 2008 also). Here's an example, and what all the notation means.

00005 06/25/1851 M= 4 1 SNBR= 1 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=1
00010 06/25*280 948 80 0*280 954 80 0*280 960 80 0*281 965 80 0*
00015 06/26*282 970 70 0*283 976 60 0*284 983 60 0*286 989 50 0*
00020 06/27*290 994 50 0*295 998 40 0*3001000 40 0*3051001 40 0*
00025 06/28*3101002 40 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*

The series of numbers in the beginning of the row (00005, 00010, 00015, ...) denotes the row number. Divide that number by five to tell you what row of the database you are in.

The first date (6/25/1851) tells you the starting date. After that the date (6/25, 6/26, ...) tells you what date it is, and the year is inferred from the starting date.

The M= number tells you how many days the TC existed.

The SNBR= tells you what number the storm is in the year. (e.g. Arthur= 1, Bertha=2, ...) The name after it tells you the nickname of the storm. So Hurricane Ike's SNBR would be 9 IKE.

The XING= tells you the number of United States landfalls the storm made.

The SSS= tells you the strength of the storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Each data point tells you where and the strength of the storm every six hours. So for this data point: 280 948 80, the storm was located at 28.0N 94.8W with 80 kt winds.

The little 0* number is the pressure, but since there isn't any pressure data for 1851, the number says 0*.

Hopefully this can help someone.
Also, for those whose interest goes outside of the NHC's area of responsibility, the CPHC has an archive of all the storms located in their area of responsibility.
Also, here is another HURDAT for the West Pacific, although all the longitude data is in respect to the Western Hemisphere. To find the correct longitude data for the Eastern Hemisphere, take the longitude: ex. 219.1W, subtract 180 from it. (39.1). Then subtract that number from 180. (140.9E) There you go.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number SEVEN
Tropical LOW 06U
3:50 AM WDT January 26 2009
===============================

At 3:00 AM WDT, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 18.7S 116.1E or 240 kms north northwest of Karratha and 340 kms north northeast of Onslow has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 7 knots parallel to the Pilbara coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone tonight or on Tuesday as it moves west southwest parallel to the coast then possibly moving closer to the coast. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas on Tuesday if the cyclone takes a more southerly track than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wickham to Exmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.1S 114.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 19.2S 114.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 19.8S 114.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 20.7S 116.0E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
While the low level circulation is well defined, deep convection has been weak
during daylight hours but may respond to the diurnal maximum this morning to present a more organised signature. However, it is unlikely that cyclone intensity could be reached in the short term. Although the environment remains
generally favourable for some development, computer models do not indicate any signs of significant intensification in the next 48 hours.

Dvorak T2.0 based on a time averaged 0.3 wrap curved band pattern. The steering pattern is relatively clear cut for the next 24 hours with the A mid-level ridge to the southeast is expected to steer the system to the west
southwest motion. Beyond 12-18 hours a weakness develops in the ridge as a shortwave trough approaches, which should capture the system and move it toward the west Pilbara coast later on Tuesday. However, it is also possible that the system is weaker and recurve further to the north as steering becomes dominated by the low level flow.
I know it's a lot, but here's a fifth (and sixth) reference. They're both HURDAT, but only through 2003. Here is one for the Southern Hemisphere, and here's one for the Northern Indian.
Does anyone know of any maps of whole basins, other than the one of the Atlantic given by WU? The Eastern Pacific map is not a whole basin because it stops 15 degrees short.
huri~you have these Pacific views?..Atlantic..

Floater rainbow loop of the depressiom NW of Australia.
There is a petition going on my blog... just in case you guys want to check it out. (hint hint Wunderground Admins (lol))
Quoting Skyepony:
huri~you have these Pacific views?

Floater rainbow loop of the depressiom NW of Australia.


No, I don't. Thanks Skye. I'll stop monopolizing the blog now.
Quoting taistelutipu:
Good evening everyone.
Oh, quite interesting to read about mosquitos when the snow is still on the mountains visible from my window. I hope that the severe frost will kill as many of them as possible, so that we won't have many this summer. As for the problems in the Caribbean I hope that you find a way to get rid of them. The pellets sounded quite good for it. I have never heard of them though. How come that an apparently good solution is not promoted to be used in countries which need it?

A page or two earlier someone requested information about severe weather in Europe. Meteoalarm is quite a decent one although it sometimes lags a bit behind recent events.
At the moment, 21:40 UTC, the metoffice.co.uk has issued a weather warning and if you look on the rain radar you can see why. Not mentioned on the meteoalarm page yet though. I'll keep on looking at it to see when they update it.

................................
Hello to all here....
I am new to this BLOG.
I live in North Central Washington state. Farly Cold right now 20 to 24 F. I am temporally living in a house right at the shores of a large beautiful lake "LAKE CHELAN, WA." there are pine and fir forest all around me, as long as I have lived here in Chelan for 35 y. we have a far amount of Baled Eagles around the lake. Their is a pair of Baled Eagles that that fly right out in ( about 30 to 50 Ft.) front of my balcony almost every day, what a site to see. Soon when there is more sunlight I will be taking some good pictures of them. I might post them on this site, under category of Eagles.

As far as Mosquito go, we have very few her it's dry country, there are some mosquito's at the small cattail ponds, but not here at the lake.

I realize that they are a problem for people. But look at the reality, Mosquito's are necessary, as food for all the other beneficial insects , birds, shrimp, fish and more that live in the ponds, estuary's and mangroves too. Baby fish and Shrimp larva's feed on Mosquito larva's in mangroves and so on, before they get big enough to eat large pray or go out to see as adults.

If you destroy one LINK in the chain of life you damage all the other LINKS in the chain of life. There is a purpose for all the creatures of the planet (even Mosquitoes) The web of life is a very delicate eco-system that has been set into motion for the planet, not for us HUMANS to control. Get rid of all mosquito and you will lose many other beneficial parts of life, shrimp, fish, food, animals, insects (as one poster here stated: He sees no more butterfly, dragonflies, and other beneficial insects around his area do to mosquito eradication) With that said, the lose of others beneficial insects will lead to more disturbances in nature ability to take care of it self and stay in some kind of natural balance. Any way that's my thoughts all from my nature studies.

A small town I go to in Mex. where they spray MALATHION ( for "Mosquito's" and "No Seeums" bugs) in early evening time using a pick-up with sprayer and drive right down the streets with spray blowing right into peoples open windows and retail business wide open and folks walking about doing their daily life. They know it's POISON but they can not do anything to change it as it's Government policy to do the spraying so that the tourist will come there and spend money (locals just eat it, or get sick and tourist come for short time to be happy and then go home) Go figure..............

~ Oro
Quoting jaikishan:
Question to anyone please? Could this potential La Nina event be the cause of the almost abnormal rainfall in Trinidad. It feels more like June here than January.
normally this is when the grass starts to become dehydreated and makes gardeinig easy, however my garden is overrun by weeds like June.



La Niña brings wetter than normal conditions over southeastern Africa and northern Brazil, during the northern winter season so I'd say yes most certainly could be the cause.
reply to 261

Not surprisingly, Dominica's rainfall has also been abnormally wet, it's as if we're not going to get a dry season this year. Over a month late now and still no sign that the rain is going to stop soon, still rainbows every day from rain and sun together.

Tropical Disturbance Eight-F
14.0ºS 180.0ºE - 15-20 knots 1004 hPa
At 6:00 AM WDT, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 18.9S 116.3E or 210 kms north northwest of Karratha and 330 kms north northeast of Onslow has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west-southwest at 4 knots parallel to the Pilbara coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone tonight as it moves closer to the west Pilbara coast. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas overnight tonight or during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wickham to Northwest Cape.
As far as Mosquito go, we have very few her it's dry country, there are some mosquito's at the small cattail ponds, but not here at the lake.

I realize that they are a problem for people. But look at the reality, Mosquito's are necessary, as food for all the other beneficial insects , birds, shrimp, fish and more that live in the ponds, estuary's and mangroves too. Baby fish and Shrimp larva's feed on Mosquito larva's in mangroves and so on, before they get big enough to eat large pray or go out to see as adults.

If you destroy one LINK in the chain of life you damage all the other LINKS in the chain of life. There is a purpose for all the creatures of the planet (even Mosquitoes) The web of life is a very delicate eco-system that has been set into motion for the planet, not for us HUMANS to control. Get rid of all mosquito and you will lose many other beneficial parts of life, shrimp, fish, food, animals, insects (as one poster here stated: He sees no more butterfly, dragonflies, and other beneficial insects around his area do to mosquito eradication) With that said, the lose of others beneficial insects will lead to more disturbances in nature ability to take care of it self and stay in some kind of natural balance. Any way that's my thoughts all from my nature studies.

globalora (look at the reality)?
Hate to disagree so strongly with a newcomer.
But are you aware that mosquitos have killed half the people that have ever lived on this planet?
Every 40 seconds a child dies from a mosquito bite.
More dogs,cats,horses,birds and forest critters have been killed by mosquito born illness than any other.
Will the HIV beast ever mutate as malaria did to learn to ride the airways?
Facts are facts and sometimes the gov't does what it knows it needs to do despite the unknowing fears.
I'll take the health of my grandchildren over unproven fears of "quick-draw" enviromental concerns anytime. Would suggest you expand your studies.
LOL...enjoy the blog
Quoting hurristat:
They've also finished the PSR for Hurricane Ike. Ditto for the format.


Yeah, there is a lot of talk about the spread of wind intensities from obs in Ike. Then they have to intelligently take in all of the obs and make an estimation of max winds. /- 10% is claimed as a good rule of thumb for best track max winds.

Shows you that even now, we cannot be completely certain about the max wind speed in any cane. Makes any attempted conclusion drawn from trends in categories, number of more intense storms, etc. that much less valid, in my mind.

Addendum: That would specifically be the scatter in Figure 2 (page 42) and the open circles that result from minimum pressure as measured by aircraft then calculated to max wind.
301. tb1
Quoting melwerle:


We have them too Aquak - saw one while I was sailing in a lake here.



We only have them in Ok. in the winter. Mainly in Jan.
but is realy neat to ride ypur horse up on one setting in a tree.
tb1
I can't help it.

I am not going to say anything, except to provide a bit on a caption.


This is the NASA GISS historical US mean temperature as published in 1999 and 2008 (Credit: Jim Hansen, et al). Within the last 9 years, it got colder in our distant history and warmer in our recent history...hmmm.
Good evening all. Some interesting comments on the mosquito here on the Blog.
I think I caused the whole thing, when I said there was a Yellow Fever Scare here. Well, talking to a Doctor today, he says there have been "a couple of cases confirmed" with people. The Government has not said this. There are also reports that the monkeys on the North West peninsula have also tested positive. (Red Howler Monkeys).
There is a spray campaign on, and with regard to "pellets", these are used quite regularly here, where there is standing water, in gardens etc. NOT in the Forest. Spraying also is not done in the forest.
There was a comment earlier, and a response, re the down-side of eliminating any link (mosquito) from the food chain.
Yes, there is a fundamental danger in this kind of action, and the repercussions are not known, in the rest of the chain.
But, as Theshepherd points out, the mosquito is a Dangerous Beast.
I am all for non-inteferance in Nature. But the mosquito is a real problem, in the Global Tropics. The loss to the Tropics, of this one, would be OK with me.






anyone from west palm going to the Rooney's All In for the Super Bowl party?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number NINE
Tropical LOW 06U
9:50 AM WDT January 26 2009
===============================

At 9:00 AM WDT, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 19.0S 116.2E or 205 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 315 kilometres north northeast of Onslow has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots parallel to the Pilbara coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight as it moves closer to the west Pilbara coast. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas overnight tonight or during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.5S 115.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.2S 115.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 22.0S 116.3E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 23.5S 117.3E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
The low level circulation is quite well defined as evident on 37GHz microwave and radar. Deep convection has slowly improved overnight with an average wrap of 0.4-0.5 evident on a sequence of images from 18Z. Deep convection is also more tightly focused near the centre than it was overnight. DT/FT/CI is set to 2.5. Offshore observations are in agreement, with mean winds of around 30 knots being reported from a number of sites. Shear is currently quite low and SSTs are over 29C. The environment remains favourable in the short term and development is forecast for later today.

The system has already slowed its westwards movement considerably, and an approaching mid-level trough will weaken the ridge and should steer the system toward the coast. There is considerable variance in the models with some models indicating that the system could weaken significantly and be steered by lower level flow, never reaching the coast. While this is quite possible, the forecast track has been constructed from a selective consensus of models that match the conceptual model of steering for a deeper system. It is notable that the deterministic run of the UK is an outlier compared with the spread of ensemble members, suggesting that some NWP may be struggling with the small scale of the system.

Amongst model runs that bring the system into the coast there is considerable variance in timing of coastal crossing, and hence there is considerable uncertainty in this respect.

===============================================

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-F
9:00 AM FST January 26 2009
=====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Eight-F (1003 hPa) located at 15.4S 178.4W is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position GOOD based on Multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation, periphral observations. Sea surface temperatures around the region is 29-30C.

System lies along a monsoonal trough, south of a 250 HPA subtropical ridge in an increasingly sheared environment. The low level circulation center is now exposed to the west of the deep convection. Active convergence to the north maintains west to northwest surface winds of 20-25 knots in the northern and eastern semicircle, displaced from the center.

Global midels (US/UK/EC] moves the system southward with no intensification. Shear is expected to inhibit the development of the system.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
where do you live Hades and do you ever sleep?
Sterling, IL and yes, LOL
Hello everyone....i have the SuperBowl Pool ready to post at 9:30 this evening.....but, to be fair i cannot post it until 9:30 as it is first come could get the best points.
#299į: good night everyone- eapecially Pottery and theShepherd- as one who put her nose in about mosquitoes and pesticides and the loss of so many butterflies, dragonflies and so many other insects and the effects on birds and amphibians- I agree with you both. 1) unfortunately, despite all the ravages throuhout history and up to today of thousands and millions of people killed or maimed for life from mosquito-borne disease- no one has done a series of studies on what would happen if this pestilential life form disappeared from the chain of life 2) please don't think i don't understand the importance of every living creature and plant to the chain- but since we are exterminzting much more beautiful, wonderful and important creatures through pesticides and herbicides,massive destruction of habitat on a scale the earth has never seen before, plus the human effects on climate (no I did not say precisely the taboo word GW)- do you really think the eradication of an insect that hasn't produced anything but horrors and its stupid attempts at eradication by bombing them to death and exposing us, our pets, our plants and all of nature, as skypony, KEH and I were trying to point out, is getting us anywhere but oblivion??

3)When the Panama Canal was being built is when the scientists and engineers for the first time undestood the link between malaria , yellow fever, dengue and mosquitoes- and we haven't really advanced too far from then. Is it becuase it is third world people that are the ones who are overwhemingly themselves being eradicated, instead of those in temperate climates, that more research is not being done on eradicating- or at least learning to use biological warfare on mitigating the aenopheles and aedes egypti from our midst?

I agree with pottery I would sign up to do anything to rid them from our midst- there are enough other insects, bugs etc. for the rest of the food chain to eat- until some one proves to me that the mosquito is absolutely essential to the survival of many of the earth's species, then, I say, let's get on with eradicating or at least finding a way to control them in enough manageable numbers that millions of people do not have to suffer daily from their effects. ( Sorry Pottery- altho a fellow Carribean person, I do not have the same diplomatic skills as you, despite the heritage, the wonderful Trinidadian gift of the gab- much more coarse and calling a spade a spade)
Storm study to model warming effects Link

by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
Wednesday October 08, 2008, 8:06 AM

A new study announced today will attempt to predict whether the number and intensity of future hurricanes will increase in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of global warming.

The study will use a combination of complex computer models to replicate past weather patterns in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf, and use the results, along with estimates of future production of man-made greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane to predict Gulf hurricane activity.

The modeling will focus on three 10-year periods -- 1995-2005, 2020-30, and 2045-55 -- said lead scientist Greg Holland, a climatologist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado Springs, Colo.

"It's the next stepping stone forward in how hurricanes are going to be impacted by climate change and how hurricanes can impact climate change," Holland said.

He expects the first results to be available as soon as January, with a detailed analysis completed by mid-2009.
I just updated my Weather Blog and also have a SuperBowl Pool if anyone would like to Participate. There is a Donation! Thanks to those that play.

TampaSpins Weather Blog and SuperBowl Pool Link
you take care of yourself Hades..without you, practically no one here what would know what is going on tropic wise in the rest of the world.
I see the high forecast for Super Sunday in Tampa proper is 68...Should be great game and super for the Tampa economy!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What's the forecast for Super Sunday?


Forecast for Tampa...

Friday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 70. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Colder. Lows in the mid 40s.

Saturday and Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 60s. Lows in the lower 40s.

Sunday
Partly sunny. Highs around 70.
Hey, Atmo, never heard how your house did in Ike.

Looking at your 302 post, keep in mind that those are graphs of departures from the average temp. Add in 9 warmer than average years and the average goes up. That means the anomalies in the newer graph don't match those in the earlier graph. The previous average is cooler than the newer average. Etc. Nothing odd about what you point out.
ohs play in the Super Bowl this year
Quoting Tazmanian:
ohs play in the Super Bowl this year


Arizona Cardinals or the Pittsburg Steelers
I work for the Rooney family down here in West Palm..........it's going to be a crazy week....as i mentioned before..nice party at the All-In on Okee. and Jog for those of you who live around West Palm...Free drink for all WU members...just ask for Geoff!
...to compliment Hades' post.



AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9 issued at 9:42 am WDT Monday 26 January 2009

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight as it moves closer to the west Pilbara coast. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas overnight tonight or during Tuesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier and surrounding communities should start taking precautions.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Arizona Cardinals or the Pittsburg Steelers



ok
re#296,#294 and my reports/questions and pottery's joy at wet weather & stormdude's query- you have all of the recently reporting people from the Caribbean telling all of you about the fact that we really are not experiencing dry season.

Skypony answered that yes, re our question, that is is a sign of La Nina- is it? Because I cannot recall a season like this ever before in my life, and yes, it may be relatd to all the factors of an impending La Nina- which paying close attention to Dr. Masters article doesn't suggest that this is going to be the most massive La nina in a long time. So...?

Can any of you meteorologists explain the climate pattern, more intensive than in decades that the Caribbean is experiencing now, despite the fact that we have more SAL than we have had at this time of year, all together a very different weather pattern?

I understand the preoccupation with continental winter weather- but we have to also be looking forward to what is coming in less than 6 months and I would really like to understand this-

Have any of the meteorologists on the blog been looking at the weather patterns in the Atlantic/CAribbean since October and could provide an analysis. PLEASE.
At 12:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category One (994 hPa) located at 19.6S 115.9E or 160 kms northwest of Karratha and 240 kms north northeast of Onslow has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots parallel to the Pilbara coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is moving towards the west Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop in exposed coastal areas later this afternoon or overnight.

Tides between Exmouth and Whim Creek may rise above the normal high tide mark as the cyclone approaches the coast, with very rough seas and flooding of low lying coastal areas.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth including adjacent inland parts of the west Pilbara.
Quoting bappit:
Hey, Atmo, never heard how your house did in Ike.

Looking at your 302 post, keep in mind that those are graphs of departures from the average temp. Add in 9 warmer than average years and the average goes up. That means the anomalies in the newer graph don't match those in the earlier graph. The previous average is cooler than the newer average. Etc. Nothing odd about what you point out.


Howdy.

In SE LA, we lost a couple of trees to gusts in one of Ike's rainbands, but my in-laws south of Beaumont fared much worse. They had the roof peel off and enough rainwater to collapse ceilings and start mold growing in the walls. Had to be gutted as if it flooded. They are just moving back in.

About that plot: If the average went up, then the data after 1980 wouldn't be warmer relative to the average, but cooler. The baseline definition of the anomaly didn't change, something else did. Selectively choosing a different average to compare for some years and a different one for others would be garbage. Junk. Fraud. Whatever you want to call it. Something is very odd...
309 Bjanmamma
Ditto. I doubt we'll ever erradicate the mosquito by suffocating their babies. Indeed, it's the only water we "have" to throw on the fire currently. I figure vaccine is the only option. Most unfortunate for God's little critters in the wild.
And Ditto in reference to that "knothead" pottery. Unlike that Neanderthal theshepherd, pottery is "indeed" a silver tongue devil...LOL
At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 1 (987 hPa) located at 20.1S 115.6E or 175 kms north northeast of Onslow and 150 kms west northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is moving towards the west Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas this afternoon or overnight. The system is likely to cross the west Pilbara coast between Exmouth and Karratha, most likely in the vicinity of Onslow, overnight. Destructive gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period close to the cyclone's path, however periods of gales are possible in all parts of the warning area.

Tides between Exmouth and Whim Creek may rise above the normal high tide mark as the cyclone approaches the coast, with very rough seas and flooding of low lying coastal areas. Heavy rain is likely to be confined to coastal and adjacent parts.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth including adjacent inland parts of the west Pilbara.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.4S 115.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 22.8S 115.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 25.4S 117.6E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.2S 119.7E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
TC Dominic was named at 03Z. System organisation has improved steadily and an average wrap of 0.7 was measured on afternoon VIS imagery giving DT/FT/CI of 3.0. Offshore observations indicate maximum sustained surface winds of around 45 knots, in close agreement with the Dvorak estimates.

After stalling overnight the system has increased translation speed significantly during the day and is likely to cross teh coast overnight or early morning.

Further intensification to Category 2 is very likely but given the narrow window of opportunity the system is unlikely to reach Category 3 [hurricane force mean winds].
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWELVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOMINIC, CATEGORY 2
6:50 PM WDT January 26 2009
===============================

At 6:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 (984 hPa) located at 20.5S 115.4E or 130 kms north northeast of Onslow and 155 kms west of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is moving towards the west Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas this evening or overnight. The system is likely to cross the west Pilbara coast between Exmouth and Karratha, most likely in the vicinity of Onslow, overnight. Destructive gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period close to the cyclone's path, however periods of gales are possible in all parts of the warning area.

Residents of Onslow are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides between Exmouth and Whim Creek may rise above the normal high tide mark as the cyclone approaches the coast, with very rough seas and flooding of low lying coastal areas.

Widespread rain is expected in the western Pilbara with heavy falls close to the cyclone's path.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth including inland parts of the west Pilbara.

RED ALERT: People in or near Onslow and adjacent inland communities should move to shelter.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier, Pannawonica, Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities should be taking precautions.
54 degrees this Monday AM in SWFL - I'm not complaining
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
you take care of yourself Hades..without you, practically no one here what would know what is going on tropic wise in the rest of the world.


I second that !!! many of us depend & enjoy your work!!
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 9:45 pm WDT on Monday, 26 January 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth
including inland parts of the west Pilbara.

At 9:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 was estimated to be
105 kilometres north of Onslow and
160 kilometres west of Karratha and
moving south southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is continuing to move in a southerly direction towards
the west Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are likely
to develop in coastal areas overnight. The system is likely to cross the west
Pilbara coast between Exmouth and Karratha, most likely in the vicinity of
Onslow, in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Destructive gusts to 130
kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period close to the cyclone's path,
however periods of gales are possible in all parts of the warning area.

Residents of Onslow are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS
STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides between Exmouth and
Whim Creek may rise above the normal high tide mark as the cyclone approaches
the coast, with very rough seas and flooding of low lying coastal areas.

Widespread rain is expected in the western Pilbara with heavy falls close to the
cyclone's path.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dominic at 9:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 20.7 degrees South 115.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 982 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Onslow and adjacent inland communities should move
to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near Pannawonica should be taking action in
preparation for the cyclone's arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Roebourne, Wickham, Point
Samson, Karratha, Dampier, Exmouth, Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities
should be taking precautions.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Tuesday 27 January.


RADARLink
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I see the high forecast for Super Sunday in Tampa proper is 68...Should be great game and super for the Tampa economy!


I second that
#302
I don't know who published those graphs, but they do look bad. I wonder if NASA really did publish them or if deniers, made them and put NASA's name on it, for conspiracy proof purposes.

I am disapointed, I read that La Nina brought wet winters and springs to Florida. Now Dr. Masters says it will be dry.??? What is up with that?

PLEASE CHANGE THE WONDERPOLL!
It seems like it has been there for over a month, and still doesn't have a voting submission button.
Dominic on MIMIC. There's an island that took the brunt & then has spent a while in the CDO. Looks to be weakening pretty quick now..

Onslow braces for Cyclone Dominic's fury
Article from: AAP


January 27, 2009 01:01am

THE residents of the West Australian coastal town of Onslow face a long night as Cyclone Dominic bears down on them.
Residents of Onslow and nearby communities have been told to take shelter and prepare for Dominic as it heads towards the Pilbara coast.

The category two cyclone is expected to cross the Pilbara coast at Onslow sometime early this morning.

The Fire and Emergency Services Authority (FESA) has a red alert in place for people in or near Onslow and adjacent inland communities.

A yellow alert, warning residents to prepare for the arrival of the cyclone, has been issued for the Pannawonica area.

A blue alert has been issued, ordering people in Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier, Exmouth, Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities to take precautions as the storm approaches.

At 2100 (WDT) Dominic was estimated to be 105km north off Onslow and 160km west of Karratha, travelling south-southwest at 15km/h.

Gusts of up to 130km/h are expected overnight as Dominic crosses the coast at Onslow, 1386km north of Perth.

Warnings of a dangerous storm tide are also in place between Exmouth and Whim Creek, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

Widespread rain is expected in the western Pilbara with heavy falls close to the cyclone's path.
RADAR Link
Cheers AussieStorm
Quoting Skyepony:
Dominic on MIMIC. There's an island that took the brunt & then has spent a while in the CDO. Looks to be weakening pretty quick now..

The Island that took the brunt of Tropical Cyclone Dominic is Barrow Island.
Barrow Island is located to the north of Onslow and to the west of Karratha in Western Australia's northwest.

The island became a nature reserve in 1910 after the island's rich array of flora and fauna was recognised.

Barrow Island is also rich in oil and is Australia's largest onshore oilfield. Strict environmental policies have enabled mining to coexist with the island's status as a nature reserve.
USGS:
"New research shows the San Andreas fault rumbles every 137 years."

San Andreas Fault:
"New research shows the USGS ain't got a clue when I'm going to rumble next."
Good Morning everyone.......
Quoting theshepherd:
USGS:
"New research shows the San Andreas fault rumbles every 137 years."

San Andreas Fault:
"New research shows the USGS ain't got a clue when I'm going to rumble next."

What does the USGS call a rumble. Is it a M 1.1 or is it a M 5.0 ?????
Quoting AussieStorm:

What does the USGS call a rumble. Is it a M 1.1 or is it a M 5.0 ?????
They didn't say.
That may be the focus of their next research.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FOURTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOMINIC, CATEGORY 2
12:50 AM WDT January 27 2009
===============================

At 12:00 AM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 (982 hPa) located at 20.9S 115.2E or 80 kilometres north of Onslow and 175 kilometres west of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 5 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is continuing to move in a south southwest direction towards the west Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are likely to develop this morning. The system is likely to cross the west Pilbara coast between Mardie and Exmouth, most likely in the vicinity of Onslow, after sunrise this morning. Destructive gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period close to the cyclone's path, however periods of gales are possible in all parts of the warning area.

Tides will be higher than expected between Karratha and Exmouth.

Widespread rain is expected in the western Pilbara with heavy falls close to the cyclone's path.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Karratha to Exmouth

The Cyclone Warning between Whim Creek and Karratha has been cancelled.

RED ALERT: People in or near Onslow and adjacent inland communities should move to shelter.

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near Pannawonica should be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's arrival.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Karratha, Dampier, Exmouth, Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities should be taking precautions. ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson are advised to proceed with caution.
328. surfmom 11:42 AM GMT on January 26, 2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
you take care of yourself Hades..without you, practically no one here what would know what is going on tropic wise in the rest of the world.


I second that !!! many of us depend & enjoy your work!!

---
I will =)
This is not looking pretty for Southern Indiana......

Guess Dominic's short life & land interaction never got the waves too high.
Photobucket

In the picture: Moisture ahead of a system system ("L") in the southern Rockies will encounter cold air surrounding high pressure ("H") in Iowa at 6 am on 01/27/2009. The result will be mixed precipitation across the center of the country.



Can barely tell there is a cyclone.
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.


I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH
Quoting JoeCHecht:
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.


I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH



What.......LMAO
Quoting JoeCHecht:
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.


I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH
Dude it is all interrelated.
The Big High that was established on the WEST coast that was pulling all the Very Cold Temperatures South into the ConUS is setting up again........Temperatures will start falling Late this week and into next week....here we go again...round 2

Posts 348, 349, 350.
Well, to some of you guys, the entire thing is inter-related, and conclusions can be drawn from Dr. M's blog to relate to Alt. and Carib. storm systems.
But not all of us know that. I am not sure about the effects of the expected La Nina, and how they relate to this coming season.
I would appreciate more discussion on this one.
Quoting pottery:
Posts 348, 349, 350.
Well, to some of you guys, the entire thing is inter-related, and conclusions can be drawn from Dr. M's blog to relate to Alt. and Carib. storm systems.
But not all of us know that. I am not sure about the effects of the expected La Nina, and how they relate to this coming season.
I would appreciate more discussion on this one.


If La Nina is coming and it appears to be doing so.....that means the Atlantic will have much less Westerly trade winds in the Atlantic Tropical basin therefore less Shear and higher SST because the trade winds also helps cool the Atlantic basin also. Simply put, if La Nina holds on until May into June the Atlantic Hurricane season (history shows) should be very Active. In contrast would be the opposite with El Nino.
Thanks Tampa. I understand that.
I am not clear on the "why" this happens. I guess it has to do with Pressure Gradients in the Atl. Basin overall ? And what would the reason for the lower gradients be. I realise this is a big subject to get into on the spur of the moment, so links to explanations would be cool, if you have them.
Thanks again.
Here's the La Nina/El Nino page from NOAA Pottery:

What is La Niña?

•Atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect La Niña.
•Negative equatorial SST anomalies persist across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
•Based on recent trends in the observations and model forecasts,La Niña conditions are likely to continue into Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009.

359. N3EG
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Big High that was established on the WEST coast that was pulling all the Very Cold Temperatures South into the ConUS is setting up again........Temperatures will start falling Late this week and into next week....here we go again...round 2


Barometer 30.45 and rising here in SW Washington...
Thanks guys. I will study those things for sure.
Quoting biff4ugo:
#302
I don't know who published those graphs, but they do look bad. I wonder if NASA really did publish them or if deniers, made them and put NASA's name on it, for conspiracy proof purposes.



I hear ya. A healthy dose of suspicion required for most anything in that field is required.

The current plot from NASA here. From the page here. These are the 2008 data.

The 1999 plot is embedded in a pdf available here.

By eyeball only, I want to know how the 30s got cooler and how the 80s and 90s got warmer at the same time via an update to the data. The effect of one era cooler and another warming explains away an adjustment to the baseline.

Trinidad weather now-
temp 84 f (this is relatively average for this time of year.)
showers continue ( this is average too)

Rainfall for Jan so far 102 mm
10 yr average (my location) is 97 mm (about 4") for Jan.
This January has "felt" wetter, due to heavy rain in Nov and Dec, that have the ground saturated still.
Jan Rainfall varies a lot-
98=32mm
99=119mm
00=144mm
01=0mm !!! record
02=197mm
03=13mm
04=80mm
05=293mm
06=376mm record
07=120mm
08=75mm
09=102mm to date

any trends here, re nina/nino ??

atmo~ with the cry of how accurate could that be much data has been poured over & added since 2000. There's a group that does nothing but enter, record & preserve old weather records. Satellites had data recorded that wasn't utilized. Here's a recent article that discusses a "new" more complete temp history (scroll down) of Antartica. I think the 1999 one is just outta date.

Just keeps turning out things are a little worse than we thought. If it was all bogus we wouldn't be about to lose another shelf down there or have had a such a major melt in the Artic.
Tampa,by end of week another shot of cold air get ready for round 2,here in the northeast its called round 4.
If anyone would like to participate in a SuperBowl Pool check my Weather Blog out.....

TampaSpins Weather and SuperBowl Pool Link
352. TampaSpin

Hopefully these successive blasts are depleting the store of extremely frigid Arctic air. Local mets here in Panama City Beach are calling for lows of 36 by week's end and that is welcomed compared to the 26 we got last week.
At 3:00 AM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 (982 hPa) located at 21.2S 115.1E or kms north of Onslow and 190 kms west southwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is moving south towards the west Pilbara coast. Destructive gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period in the Onslow region prior to the cyclone crossing the coast. Gales with wind gusts to 90 kilometres per hour may be experienced elsewhere within the warning area. The system is likely to cross the west Pilbara coast in the vicinity of Onslow mid-morning. The cyclone is then expected to then weaken steadily as it moves inland.

Tides will be higher than expected between Karratha and Exmouth.

Heavy rain is expected close to the cyclone's path.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Karratha to Exmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.2S 115.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.5S 115.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 27.4S 119.1E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:

TC Dominic is nearing the west Pilbara coast, with observations at Varanus Island and Thevenard Island confirming 50 knot mean winds associated with the system.

Curved band difficult to analyse in Dvorak but final T number based on MET/PT =3.0 and CI held at 3.5 consistent with observations. Position based primarily on radar, with radar showing asymmetry and maximum winds in western quadrants of system.

Motion has been steady in a south southwest direction for the last 12 hours but may take a more southeasterly track after crossing the coast, under the influence of a mid-level trough to the southwest. The system is expected to weaken quickly once it crosses the coast.
Just keeps turning out things are a little worse than we thought. If it was all bogus we wouldn't be about to lose another shelf down there or have had a such a major melt in the Artic.

I hear this, too. Could be just that better station info or more historical records were discovered, this was just the US records in these plots.

As to the Arctic: If we really are seeing a real low point in sea ice, it sure does correlate well to industrialization in the NH over our limited history of satellite measurement. My personal opinion is that it could have far more to do with non-white aerosol deposition than CO2. And at the same time we began limiting soot emissions (70s) a little continent to the far east soon after easily dwarfed our soot emissions with their own.

Soot on ice/snow would have the obvious effect.
If anyone has feedback on this system.. would like to hear it

Oregon Systems
WMR968 Complete Wireless Weather Station
Quoting JoeCHecht:
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.

I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH

it's HIS blog....he can post his grandmother's diary if he wants to....
Quoting presslord:
Quoting JoeCHecht:
>>Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.

I think the blog entry for "A La Niña event" should have included information on how this might effect tropical development, rather than how it may effect precipitation in the Ohio Valley :)

JCH

it's HIS blog....he can post his grandmother's diary if he wants to....


ROFLMAO, and people would still argue over it... somehow it would be associated with GW and have a carbon footprint
370. presslord

Aye,aye Press. His boat...his rules.
So I got this new T-shirt in the mail..... it's very hot... Just love the logo

HURRICANE IKE RELIEF HONOR WALK - w/IKE'S picture on it too! (thank goodness not Presslord in drag)

Buttt.. the best part was they also included Bumper stickers -- made my day!!
Quoting surfmom:
So I got this new T-shirt in the mail..... it's very hot... Just love the logo

HURRICANE IKE RELIEF HONOR WALK - w/IKE'S picture on it too! (thank goodness not Presslord in drag)

Buttt.. the best part was they also included Bumper stickers -- made my day!!
Hey SM...cool bumper stickers...another half marathon coming up week after next!!!!