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La Niña is here

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:16 PM GMT on July 15, 2010

The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean continues to cool, and we have now crossed the threshold into La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.8°C below average by July 12, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 0.7°C below average (as of July 11.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.5°C below average, we are well into the territory of a weak La Niña event. La Niña conditions must be present for several months before this will be officially classified as a La Niña event, but it is highly likely that a full-fledged La Niña event lasting at least eight months has arrived. We started out the year with a strong El Niño, so it may seem surprising that we have transitioned La Niña so quickly, However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year. Given current trends, I expect the current La Niña to cross the threshold needed to be defined as "moderate" strength--temperatures at least 1.0°C below average in the equatorial Eastern Pacific--by September.


Figure 1. Progression of El Niño to La Niña over the past year, as measured by SSTs in the the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region". Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The implications
It is well-known that both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to increase during La Niña events. However, as I discussed in a post last month, since 1995, neutral years (when neither an El Niño or La Niña are present) have had Atlantic hurricane activity equal to La Niña years. The last time we had a strong El Niño event followed by a La Niña event in the same year, in 1998, we had a Atlantic hurricane season 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. I'm thinking this year's season may be similar, though four or more intense hurricanes are a good bet due to the record warm SSTs.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of July and August, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact (Figure 2.) Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, it is unlikely that the calendar year of 2010 will set the record for warmest year ever.



Figure 2. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitation patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting blsealevel:
I don't see it doing much unless it has no
real energy just some more rain to La.,Tx.


Yeah you're probably right. I'm glad I'm sitting here watching naked swirls than something worse this a.m. :)


What do ya'll see here?
2004. Dakster
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah you're probably right. I'm glad I'm sitting here watching naked swirls than something worse this a.m. :)


And here I thought this was a family blog...

I see one of our yellow circles disappeared - can someone turn off the BOC Cyclone Generation Machine.
Morning all.


mmm, sorry dint down size the image
2007. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
2008. cg2916
Quoting blsealevel:


mmm, sorry dint down size the image


Is that an LLC over Cuba?




Still at 10%
No thats upper level winds
2013. crownwx
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes he does. This morning's discussion was a good one too.


Good morning everyone!! Thanks so much for the very nice comments on my discussions!! Can't post the link of my website for fear I will be banned....so will let others post the link to Crown Weather.
Good morning all,,,and concerned about Crown weathers comments about TX,La..
2016. MTWX
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


good morning all!! Looks like the keys are going to get a little damp
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I think Miamihurricanes09 has shut down till the lightning stops--maybe for the night.
I lost power in my apartment for a little while. I just decided to leave it that. Pretty nasty night here in Miami, some more heading my way now.

Quoting cg2916:


Is that an LLC over Cuba?
No, it's in the upper levels.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I lost power in my apartment for a little while. I just decided to leave it that. Pretty nasty night here in Miami, some more heading my way now.

Lots of lightning in Cayman last night too. Ended up shutting down my computer too. Had one about 3 years ago and the lightning hit the tv tower outside and ended up losing my computer,one tv and one cable box. Don't take anymore chances when there is lightning around. Costs too much.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Lots of lightning in Cayman last night too. Ended up shutting down my computer too. Had one about 3 years ago and the lightning hit the tv tower outside and ended up losing my computer,one tv and one cable box. don't take anymore chances when there is lightning around. Costs too much.
Yup. Lasted for about an hour, then started to back off. Gonna be another nasty day here today too.

Got to go, have a great day everyone!
2021. vis0
JeffMasters, 1:16 PM GMT on July 15, 2010 said "However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year."

My Question:
What is the period called "historic" (from when has these climate kinfolk been measured scientifically)
-thank you
2022. MTWX
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Lots of lightning in Cayman last night too. Ended up shutting down my computer too. Had one about 3 years ago and the lightning hit the tv tower outside and ended up losing my computer,one tv and one cable box. Don't take anymore chances when there is lightning around. Costs too much.

you're telling me!! I lost a computer, a tv, and a DVD player to a lightning strike last year. I don't take any chances either.
Quoting vis0:
JeffMasters, 1:16 PM GMT on July 15, 2010 said "However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year."

My Question:
What is the period called "historic" (from when has these climate kinfolk been measured scientifically)
-thank you
I'm not sure about ENSO events but history has been recorded since 1856. So basically, they average out starting whatever period recording of ENSO events begun and then gave out a percentage (e.g 35 - 40%).
2024. WxLogic
Good morning...


Last image off to work.
Thanks
Busy Africa.

2027. 7544
morning whoa look at that nice new blob in the bahamas moving nw looks like so fla is in for a wallop today does this wave have time to form before reching there . tia
2029. 7544
is there in small spin there in the bahama blob?
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Morning everyone. :)
Link


Found this interesting. Not sure who it is that writes these discussions for Crown Weather Service. But he has my respect. I like that he said he was wrong. Honesty is refreshing some times. :) Now what he wrote I'm not crazy about. Lol.

One signal that is very, very troubling is the abnormally warm summer thus far in the northeastern United States. This points to an upper level pattern of the high pressure system setting up over the eastern United States. If this pattern continues, then the northwestern and western Gulf coast may be at a higher risk of a significant hurricane this season; this was something I was not anticipating earlier this year in my seasonal hurricane outlooks. Folks in the western Gulf need to be aware that Alex and Tropical Depression 2 may not be the last threats this hurricane season.

Big sigh. :(

The NE US is simply getting the heat they missed last winter. The almost complete lack of an A/B High last winter with very weak trades is the reason SST's are so high and the reason the NE got so much snow and consistent cold weather. For the last month the A/B high has been in place with a vengeance. A lot of built up heat that stayed in the Tropical Atlantic is getting circulated around now. This has caused.
NE to have record heat
High SST anomaly to slowly decrease
Very Strong Trades for summer 20+knots yesterday
Dust storms off Africa..

The ridge is sitting there for the next 180 hours although weaker so looks like this pattern will continue to a degree. So yes almost anything that forms is heading for FL and the Gulf unless it get pulled north by a ULL.
2031. MTWX
Quoting 7544:
is there in small spin there in the bahama blob?

The blob in question is moisture associated with an upper level low between cuba and the keys
Quoting futuremet:
Sometimes it is important remind ourselves that this is just a mere blog.


Hey Futuremet, nice Youtube channel!
MIAMI NWS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MID LVL INVERTED TROF IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO S FL FROM THE BAHAMAS WHILE A DEEP RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC. PWAT ACROSS THE AREA IS RUNNING
AROUND 1.75 TO 2" VIA GPS MET AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
OVER 2" THROUGH TODAY AS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ALSO, AS THE LOW/TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA, MID LVL TEMPS WILL DECREASE AROUND 1 OR 2 DEGREES
THROUGH THE DAY SLIGHTLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES... THEREFORE
NUMEROUS TO HIGH END SCT STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HVY RN AND SOMETIMES FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY AS WE HAVE ALREADY
WITNESSED THIS SHIFT.
Quoting crownwx:


Good morning everyone!! Thanks so much for the very nice comments on my discussions!! Can't post the link of my website for fear I will be banned....so will let others post the link to Crown Weather.


Hi. Wow never know who's out there lurking. Glad I didn't say anything bad about ya. Lol. It's nice to meet you. Been reading your discussions for a while now and they are good. Thanks. :) Link
Quoting blsealevel:


What do ya'll see here?
Quoting blsealevel:


What do ya'll see here?


I think I see a tropical storm or hurricane hitting Long Island in about a week. Soooo, how are my meteorologist skills doing?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I lost power in my apartment for a little while. I just decided to leave it that. Pretty nasty night here in Miami, some more heading my way now.



I nearly got hit by a Tornado in Dover yesterday, what a wild ride Florida had.
Quoting 7544:
morning whoa look at that nice new blob in the bahamas moving nw looks like so fla is in for a wallop today does this wave have time to form before reching there . tia

No COC no development. It is an Upper Level Low firing convection. The upcasters need to have something to get excited about because they aren't happy with an accurate forecast that has nothing going on.
This is a good example of how by picking the right sat/radar pictures you can make something look like it's worth watching for development when it is not.

Worst threat would be MAYBE a tornado but very doubtful
Quoting hibiscus:


I think I see a tropical storm or hurricane hitting Long Island in about a week. Soooo, how are my meteorologist skills doing?
Better than most!!!!
Severe - Gulf

WWT SPECIAL MARINE WARNING…

***A Special Marine Warning is in effect until 7:45AM for Barataria Bay and coastal waters from 15nm east of Grand Isle to 15nm west of Grand Isle out to 10nm ***

***A Special Marine Warning is in effect until 8:00AM for coastal waters from Port Fourchon to the Lower Atchafalaya River out 20nm to 60nm ***

Strong thunderstorms have been indicated by Doppler Radar along a line through much of eastern Lousiana and extending southwest offshore. These storms are generally moving toward the west at 10 to 15kts. Doppler radar has indicated winds stronger than 34 kts in the warning areas.

Thunderstorms may be capable of producing:
---------------------------------------------------
1) Wind gusts in excess of 35 knots.
2) Frequent lightning
3) Very heavy rainfall reducing visibility to under 1nm
4) Increased sea conditions, even in protected bays
5) Waterspouts.
---------------------------------------------------
I'm about 75 percent sure we will have Bonnie by the end of the month with the intensity of these waves rolling off Africa. They are now lined up by about a day apart between each one. The 10%L paved the way for these behind it to develope. This Bermuda high appears it does not want to break down and as a result this could put FL and the TX coast in jeapordy. In 2 weeks though a trough may try to set up alon the US East Coast so yes things could get interesting soon. Enjoy this quite period now as in about 5 to 7 days all hell may break loose.
Quoting nocaneindy:
Busy Africa.


Actually it's not that busy on visible infra red the enhancement makes it look so. However the the wave at 0 right now is the one I was looking to develop. yesterday it was lower and longer and looked like it would be far enough south to miss the dust. But the models have it dying a few days off the coast.
Quoting sailingallover:

No COC no development. It is an Upper Level Low firing convection. The upcasters need to have something to get excited about because they aren't happy with an accurate forecast that has nothing going on.
This is a good example of how by picking the right sat/radar pictures you can make something look like it's worth watching for development when it is not.

Worst threat would be MAYBE a tornado but very doubtful


Is that statement REALLY necessary? All your doing is stirring the pot.
Quoting beeleeva:
Good morning all,,,and concerned about Crown weathers comments about TX,La..


Hi Bee. Yeah those comments are a bit disturbing. All depends on the orientation of the ridge at the right or wrong time. My local met (yours?)said as much this morning. Now would be a bad time for us if there was anything out there. Link in post 1973

Channel 12 Beaumont, Tx

Tropical development is not anticipated for the next couple of days.

For the first time this hurricane season, July 20th through July 24th, the upper-level pattern will leave Texas unprotected. If anything gets into the Gulf of Mexico, then it would likely move into Texas during this period. This is a pattern similar to when Hurricane Ike and Rita struck the area.
Part of this mornings Crown Weather discussion:

One signal that is very, very troubling is the abnormally warm summer thus far in the northeastern United States. This points to an upper level pattern of the high pressure system setting up over the eastern United States. If this pattern continues, then the northwestern and western Gulf coast may be at a higher risk of a significant hurricane this season; this was something I was not anticipating earlier this year in my seasonal hurricane outlooks. Folks in the western Gulf need to be aware that Alex and Tropical Depression 2 may not be the last threats this hurricane season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Is that statement REALLY necessary? All your doing is stirring the pot.


Put him on ignore a while ago, he is like you said just a pot stirrer.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hi Bee. Yeah those comments are a bit disturbing. All depends on the orientation of the ridge at the right or wrong time. My local met (yours?)said as much this morning. Now would be a bad time for us if there was anything out there. Link in post 1973

Channel 12 Beaumont, Tx

Tropical development is not anticipated for the next couple of days.

For the first time this hurricane season, July 20th through July 24th, the upper-level pattern will leave Texas unprotected. If anything gets into the Gulf of Mexico, then it would likely move into Texas during this period. This is a pattern similar to when Hurricane Ike and Rita struck the area.


Yeah I posted comments on here and got attacked by so many way before the season started because I felt that FL & TX could get most of the storms this year due to the possible set up of the Bermuda High. Don't see much in the away of any troughing anytime soon. Maybe some along the Eastern US but that is a ways out yet.
2048. IKE
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Part of this mornings Crown Weather discussion:

One signal that is very, very troubling is the abnormally warm summer thus far in the northeastern United States. This points to an upper level pattern of the high pressure system setting up over the eastern United States. If this pattern continues, then the northwestern and western Gulf coast may be at a higher risk of a significant hurricane this season; this was something I was not anticipating earlier this year in my seasonal hurricane outlooks. Folks in the western Gulf need to be aware that Alex and Tropical Depression 2 may not be the last threats this hurricane season.


It's very, very troubling if you live in the western GOM. It's less troubling if you live east of there.

It works both ways. It's not really that surprising being the first 2 systems(Alex and TD2), wound up in the western GOM.
Good morning and happy Friday! Looks like Florida will get some wet weather as it is needed in some places.
2051. lavinia
Quoting sailingallover:

This is a good example of how by picking the right sat/radar pictures you can make something look like it's worth watching for development when it is not.


Good point. So what are the right sat pictures to look at?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah I posted comments on here and got attacked by so many way before the season started because I felt that FL & TX could get most of the storms this year due to the possible set up of the Bermuda High. Don't see much in the away of any troughing anytime soon. Maybe some along the Eastern US but that is a ways out yet.


For Fl to be at risk storms are going to have to gain latitude which is not happening right now. Everything is going straight through the Caribbean. 2007 really comes to mind (Dean, Felix).
Quoting IKE:


It's very, very troubling if you live in the western GOM. It's less troubling if you live east of there.

It works both ways. It's not really that surprising being the first 2 systems(Alex and TD2), wound up in the western GOM.


That's because we haven't had CV storm yet. IKE these waves are rolling off the African coast at 10 to 15N and if this continues then FL east coast especially S FL is at a very high risk and then into the Gulf from there. You can't base the season on Alex but once the CV storms develope the East Coast of FL is in trouble as well.
2054. MahFL
Quoting lavinia:


Good point. So what are the right sat pictures to look at?


The ones with pinhole eyes.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


For Fl to be at risk storms are going to have to gain latitude which is not happening right now. Everything is going straight through the Caribbean. 2007 really comes to mind (Dean, Felix).


True.. I have also noticed some coming off at 15N which you have to admit is troubling. We should have 2 of those wave come across next week. Another concern is the possibility of a trough building across the east in 14 to 18 days. Which is not far off base as we are now nearing August and the troughs will become more prevalent and this could put the whole eastern us on edge.
Quoting StormW:
8-10 DAY ECMWF 500mb MEAN:



This setup is two fold.


Morning StormW! Could you repost the steering maps you posted yesterday because that was a good illustration of the tracks we could see over the next month. Thank You!!
Quoting StormW:


Stef,
Do you have Crown Weather's link?


Yep. Here ya go. Link
Morn'n everyone. I see Admin got out the ban stick after I left yesterday. At least there were several posts removed. We'll see who shows up today...
Quoting StormW:


Sure. What I'll do is, post the link, that way folks can go there and put the maps into motion to see the changes.


Thanks StormW! I think it is important that people in FL don't let there guard down because if this pattern holds I have concern for S FL.
Good Morning. Some really bad pop-up storms last night in the Big Bend/Tallahassee area and lost power for about two hours....Looks like South Florida will be washed out with rain over the next 24 hours.....Tropics still priming nicely with dropping sheer levels; Mid to Late August will not be pretty.
2065. IKE
All is Quiet at This Time

Jul 16, 2010 8:41 AM

Tropical development is not expected across the Atlantic Basin through Sunday.

We are tracking tropical waves along 38 west, along 48 west and along 67 west. All three tropical waves are mostly south of 20 north and are moving west at about 7 degrees longitude per day. We see no signs of organization within any of these tropical waves. The tropical wave along 35 west has a large cyclonic turning cloud mass with a center roughly near 19 north, 35 west. Dry stable air will surround the cloud mass to the west and north, and this will limit thunderstorm development. As long as thunderstorm development is suppressed tropical development is also suppressed. There is some chance that this feature might break loose of the dry stable air early next week. If that happens, this system might have an opportunity for tropical development. An upper-level low located just north of Cuba will work westward causing some disorganized areas of thunderstorms but also shear over the central and western Caribbean.

In the southwest Caribbean Sea, a broad are of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low will help produce locally heavy rain across portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama over the next few days as it drifts slowly westward.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller
2066. Drakoen
Lots of spin in the southern Caribbean:

Woah!!

Storm, Pat, and all, Please check out Radar from New Orleans. I watched the leading edge start to roll in during my drive in to work this morning.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USLA0314&animate=true

It is large dark deep very gusty, and violent. Please notice in the time laps, the motion, and what appears to be banding. WTF over? Please help me understand what is going on here.

I'm going to go check out a few buoys to see if I can discover anything else...

The power came back after a power outage caused by a T-Wave. There was lightning EVERYWHERE. Now it's just cloudy.
2071. lavinia
Quoting MahFL:


The ones with pinhole eyes.


An answer like that teaches me not to ask questions. LOL
Quoting MechEngMet:
Woah!!

Storm, Pat, and all, Please check out Radar from New Orleans. I watched the leading edge start to roll in during my drive in to work this morning.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USLA0314&animate=true

It is large dark deep very gusty, and violent. Please notice in the time laps, the motion, and what appears to be banding. WTF over? Please help me understand what is going on here.

I'm going to go check out a few buoys to see if I can discover anything else...



I'm in Metairie this morning and it was looking fairly nasty out there. In reality it was just an outflow boundary from the initial line of storm's collapsing. Had a gust to 42mph a few minutes ago.
Good Morning !!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Lots of lightning in Cayman last night too. Ended up shutting down my computer too. Had one about 3 years ago and the lightning hit the tv tower outside and ended up losing my computer,one tv and one cable box. Don't take anymore chances when there is lightning around. Costs too much.

Same thing here in Vega Alta, PR. A power outage in my house lasted about 6 hours this early AM.
2072 SH: Did you look at long range radar loop? It doesn't look like much on IR Satelite loop.

Go outside and smell the air. Not oily, and very rain cooled. Plenty of gusts. Impressive storm.
Good morning Storm and all.It is not looking goof for Tx/Mx.I pray that they will be protected from any storms this year.Woke up this morning to some good rain.
2078. FLdewey
From the national weather service in Melbourne... A Severe Doldrums Warning is in effect for the tropics until 8/1/10. At 925am EST the Doldrums were located near... Everyone. If the Doldrums approach you should seek shelter in the interior room of your house with an internet ready computer, a snack and a Coke.
Quoting FLdewey:
From the national weather service in Melbourne... A Severe Doldrums Warning is in effect for the tropics until 8/1/10. At 925am EST the Doldrums were located near... Everyone. If the Doldrums approach you should seek shelter in the interior room of your house with an internet ready computer, a snack and a Coke.


LOL!
Darn it, I wish I were more Tech savvy! Could someone please post the animated radar loop (the actual looped image) from this link? PLEASE!

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USLA0314&animate=true
Quoting MechEngMet:
2072 SH: Did you look at long range radar loop? It doesn't look like much on IR Satelite loop.

Go outside and smell the air. Not oily, and very rain cooled. Plenty of gusts. Impressive storm.


I was outside staring at the clouds for 10 minutes as were the neighbors.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah I posted comments on here and got attacked by so many way before the season started because I felt that FL & TX could get most of the storms this year due to the possible set up of the Bermuda High. Don't see much in the away of any troughing anytime soon. Maybe some along the Eastern US but that is a ways out yet.


I found this really weird. The only landfalling Texas storm to have gone through Florida first was this one.

And that track was strange. Also when you think about how many storms hit Florida and how many hit Texas and everyone of them were different storms, that's a lotta storms. I was sure they would overlap but nope.
2083. MahFL
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning Storm and all.It is not looking goof for Tx/Mx.I pray that they will be protected from any storms this year.Woke up this morning to some good rain.


Were you asleep for Hurricane Alex and TD2 which went to Mx. ?
Morning everyone,
Just read an interesting article in the Huffington Post about solar flares (sunspots, geomagnetic storms) that reminded me of 2 of Dr. Masters blogs.

The Solar 'Katrina' Storm That Could Take Our Power Grid Out For Years
by, Lawrence E. Joseph
Author, "Apocalypse 2012"
Posted: July 15, 2010 06:28 AM

John Kappenman, 55, an obscure electrical engineer from Duluth, Minnesota, is determined to save civilization from the mother of all blackouts. If he succeeds, the daily life of billions around the world will continue undisrupted. But if he fails, we may well suffer on a scale that makes even World Wars seem trivial in comparison.

Over the past thirty years, Kappenman has accumulated a vast and compelling body of evidence indicating that sooner or later a major blast of EMP (electromagnetic pulse) from the Sun, a space weather Katrina, will knock out the electrical power grid and bring society to its knees.

For the rest of the HP story click here.

Masters' March 31st, 2009 entry

Masters' April 3rd, 2009 entry.

The 2012 doomsdayers may have a point besides the one on top of their heads...
2085. IKE
Quoting MahFL:


Were you asleep for Hurricane Alex and TD2 which went to Mx. ?


LOL.
2086. aquak9
YAY!!! crownwx came by and visited.
All is quiet in Atlantic today, we are getting heavy showers and thunderstorms in Puerto Rico
2088. Relix
Our ATL wave really went POOF. Wow.
Mostly rain to affect SE Florida unless one lives in a poor-low lying and poor drainage area not much to be worried about.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
ike you have mail.By the way reading back to last nights blog same old as the teen turns lol. same few monopolizing the blog and not aknowledging any of the old time bloggers post sad no wonder so many of the older and the first members on this blog have left.I think masters ought to call his blog now the cartoon network or nicklodeon lol.Have a great day and may GOD bless you and your family.

Nice post.... ;-)
you are correct I do enjoy this site because of the insight that many of the older bloggers have and honestly I haven't thanked them enough in the past.
I will def do so more often and eventually hope to be able to lend some insight myself.
Quoting MahFL:


Were you asleep for Hurricane Alex and TD2 which went to Mx. ?
have you ever wondered why Hurricanes don't strike Jacksonville Directly?
Except Dora in 1964, it came in to St.John's county.
Quoting StormW:


To start, the ridging that we see set up over the east has been bringing the heat. This, per se won't affect storm track, unless the storm builds strong enough to be steered by the mid layer flow, then it would pretty much block any northward motion.

Second, with ridging set in such a manner, you have to be cautious of development well south of the ridge, as pressures are naturally going to be lower well south of the mid level ridge.


Wow! It amazes me that you can look at those maps and know that its showing all that. Lol. I wouldn't have had a clue. Thanks for the explanation and now maybe next time I'll know what I'm looking at too. :)
No I know they had Alex and TD2.I meant to say anymore storms sorry.
Good Morning!

Tropical Depression Six-E
Final NHC Advisory
5am EDT Graphics Update
National Hurricane Center Advisory #7



Also there's some activity in the Atlantic...

Quoting StormW:


Took a quick look as I'm pressed for time this morning, but with the trof out in the Gulf, and the flow of tropical mositure, I would venture to say it's a MSC (Mesoscale Convective Complex). I noticed a nice outflow boundary to the north and east of the main bulk of T'storms.

Mr. Storm. Do you know why hurricanes usually don't strike NE florida ? I've always wondered that, Hurricanes will strike south and central Florida, or strike north or south carolina, but not north Florida, with the exception of Dora in 1964.
wow very heavy t.storm here.
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning Storm and all.It is not looking goof for Tx/Mx.I pray that they will be protected from any storms this year.Woke up this morning to some good rain.


Good morning mrsalagranny. Yeah I hope they are spared anymore tropical weather. I'm sure they've had enough.
2099. Grothar
Quoting mikatnight:
Morning everyone,
Just read an interesting article in the Huffington Post about solar flares (sunspots, geomagnetic storms) that reminded me of 2 of Dr. Masters blogs.

The Solar 'Katrina' Storm That Could Take Our Power Grid Out For Years
by, Lawrence E. Joseph
Author, "Apocalypse 2012"
Posted: July 15, 2010 06:28 AM

John Kappenman, 55, an obscure electrical engineer from Duluth, Minnesota, is determined to save civilization from the mother of all blackouts. If he succeeds, the daily life of billions around the world will continue undisrupted. But if he fails, we may well suffer on a scale that makes even World Wars seem trivial in comparison.

Over the past thirty years, Kappenman has accumulated a vast and compelling body of evidence indicating that sooner or later a major blast of EMP (electromagnetic pulse) from the Sun, a space weather Katrina, will knock out the electrical power grid and bring society to its knees.

For the rest of the HP story click here.

Masters' March 31st, 2009 entry

Masters' April 3rd, 2009 entry.

The 2012 doomsdayers may have a point besides the one on top of their heads...


Yo stranger! Interesting article. Didn't know you were still around. Got up to Loon Lake in Chestertown a few weeks ago.
Good morning Homelesswander.I wish I had the knowledge of the tropics as does Ike,Storm and the rest of you all.I feel lost in here,but yet i cant seem to stay away from it,LOL!!!
Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Morning!

Tropical Depression Six-E
Final NHC Advisory
5am EDT Graphics Update
National Hurricane Center Advisory #7



Also there's some activity in the Atlantic...


Hey, Cool profile picture, how were you able to do that animation?
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
wow very heavy t.storm here.

Is that in the upper levels? Because it looks pretty impressive to be ONLY at the upper levels.
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

Mr. Storm. Do you know why hurricanes usually don't strike NE florida ? I've always wondered that, Hurricanes will strike south and central Florida, or strike north or south carolina, but not north Florida, with the exception of Dora in 1964.


There's a good journal article out on that point from a few years ago but I don't remember the source......Basically a "geometry" type of answer in terms of the trajectory of storms, movement towards the poles as they approach FL/Eastern Seabord (i.e, fish storms unless the A-B high blocks northward movement), and, the "protected" position of the JAX area as compared to the Carolinas which juts out into the Atlantic where the storms on the western edge of the A-B high tend to curve back out to sea........
2104. IKE
Pressure rising in cap at BP's undersea well, a positive sign
By the CNN Wire Staff


New Orleans, Louisiana (CNN) -- Pressure was rising Friday as BP continued testing its breached Gulf of Mexico well with no evidence so far that other leaks exist, said BP's Senior Vice President Kent Wells.

Wells said pressure was up to 6,700 psi (pounds per square inch) inside the well's capping stack. BP was looking for an optimal 8,000 psi, which would indicate that no oil was being forced out through a leak and that the well was undamaged and able to withstand the pressure of the cap.
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning Homelesswander.I wish I had the knowledge of the tropics as does Ike,Storm and the rest of you all.I feel lost in here,but yet i cant seem to stay away from it,LOL!!!


Lol. Know how you feel. I've been on this blog for 2 years and about the only thing I've learned about hurricanes is to get out of their way. Lol. But it is nice to know people who can tell you when it's time to get out of their way. Lol. That comes in real handy. This site is strangely addicting isn't it. :)
2106. swlavp
Quoting IKE:
Pressure rising in cap at BP's undersea well, a positive sign
By the CNN Wire Staff


New Orleans, Louisiana (CNN) -- Pressure was rising Friday as BP continued testing its breached Gulf of Mexico well with no evidence so far that other leaks exist, said BP's Senior Vice President Kent Wells.

Wells said pressure was up to 6,700 psi (pounds per square inch) inside the well's capping stack. BP was looking for an optimal 8,000 psi, which would indicate that no oil was being forced out through a leak and that the well was undamaged and able to withstand the pressure of the cap.
So far so good....Fingers crossed!
Quoting Grothar:


Yo stranger! Interesting article. Didn't know you were still around. Got up to Loon Lake in Chestertown a few weeks ago.


Ahh, my favorite WU blogger! Since I hardly ever have anything interesting to say, I mostly just lurk. Beautiful up there, ay? I miss the quiet there as much as anything...quiet, cool nights...
2108. Grothar
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Know how you feel. I've been on this blog for 2 years and about the only thing I've learned about hurricanes is to get out of their way. Lol. But it is nice to know people who can tell you when it's time to get out of their way. Lol. That comes in real handy. This site is strangely addicting isn't it. :)


Hey, homeless! The sky is getting very dark here in Ft. Lauderdale and light rain. Getting darker with that little blob off the coast. Looks ominous. I guess I would be considered an ominous-caster. How you been?
2109. Grothar
Quoting mikatnight:


Ahh, my favorite WU blogger! Since I hardly ever have anything interesting to say, I mostly just lurk. Beautiful up there, ay? I miss the quiet there as much as anything...quiet, cool nights...


We stayed at Lake Conesus in the Finger Lakes for 4 days, and the temps were over 100 everyday over the 4th of July weekend. Not nice. Looks like we are going to get a little rain from "the blob" off of our coast. Stay dry. Supposed to have my roof repaired this afternoon. Just my luck.
It's raining again at my house. Heard thunder roaring, which isn't a good sign. Clouds look dark and ominous. Consider me an ominous caster as well.
2111. MahFL
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
have you ever wondered why Hurricanes don't strike Jacksonville Directly?
Except Dora in 1964, it came in to St.John's county.


Whats that got to do with Mx ?
Oh part of the reason is JAX is 17 miles inland from the ocean.
Also I was looking at old maps and indeed sometimes JAX does get hit directly.
Also the last time Miami was directly hit was in 1926. Imagine what would happen nowadays with the greatly increased population of Miami.
You know what they say, if it's rainin ya can't fix it, and if it ain't, ya don't need to.
Quoting Grothar:


We stayed at Lake Conesus in the Finger Lakes for 4 days, and the temps were over 100 everyday over the 4th of July weekend. Not nice. Looks like we are going to get a little rain from "the blob" off of our coast. Stay dry. Supposed to have my roof repaired this afternoon. Just my luck.


Ouch. That sucks big time lol
2114. snotly
Quoting mikatnight:
Morning everyone,
Just read an interesting article in the Huffington Post about solar flares (sunspots, geomagnetic storms) that reminded me of 2 of Dr. Masters blogs.

The Solar 'Katrina' Storm That Could Take Our Power Grid Out For Years
by, Lawrence E. Joseph
Author, "Apocalypse 2012"
Posted: July 15, 2010 06:28 AM

John Kappenman, 55, an obscure electrical engineer from Duluth, Minnesota, is determined to save civilization from the mother of all blackouts. If he succeeds, the daily life of billions around the world will continue undisrupted. But if he fails, we may well suffer on a scale that makes even World Wars seem trivial in comparison.

Over the past thirty years, Kappenman has accumulated a vast and compelling body of evidence indicating that sooner or later a major blast of EMP (electromagnetic pulse) from the Sun, a space weather Katrina, will knock out the electrical power grid and bring society to its knees.

For the rest of the HP story click here.

Masters' March 31st, 2009 entry

Masters' April 3rd, 2009 entry.

The 2012 doomsdayers may have a point besides the one on top of their heads...


Given the costs of implementing vs. not implementing I'd say its worth it to protect the grid. Could you imagine the U.S. without a power grid running for more that 2 weeks. No ATM, No Flights, Transportation in chaos, Gas pumps not working, Grocery stores closed, no Air Conditioning, Dark streets at night without security, What I want to know is why there isn't a single oversight group for all power in the country. That'd be like trying to battle a foreign army with a militia run individually by each state or city.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, homeless! The sky is getting very dark here in Ft. Lauderdale and light rain. Getting darker with that little blob off the coast. Looks ominous. I guess I would be considered an ominous-caster. How you been?


Lol. I been doing ok. Hope that you are too. The ridge of doom part deux is still over us for now. So no violent weather lately. Just a lot of heat.
accuweather has turned inaccuweather 2065 also post 2088 it didnt poof it was already poof no convection had ever formed just a swirl
It is hot in Topeka...
85.3*F
Cloudy
I have to admit, I had to look. Nuttin ATM.


Conson is now very near the coast of Hainan Island.
TYPHOON CONSON Storm Tracker
oh my did i put the blog to sleep
Quoting StormW:


Thanks for answering that.

CaribbeanIslandStorm, wasn't ignoring you, just typing up my synopsis and trying to get it out.


No Prob Senior Chief...........
After yesterday, it needs the rest...LOL!
2124. Grothar
Quoting btwntx08:
oh my did i put the blog to sleep


It's Ok bt, you do that all the time. We are used to it! No worries here!!
2125. ssmate
Quoting snotly:


Given the costs of implementing vs. not implementing I'd say its worth it to protect the grid. Could you imagine the U.S. without a power grid running for more that 2 weeks. No ATM, No Flights, Transportation in chaos, Gas pumps not working, Grocery stores closed, no Air Conditioning, Dark streets at night without security, What I want to know is why there isn't a single oversight group for all power in the country. That'd be like trying to battle a foreign army with a militia run individually by each state or city.
Agreed. Sadly it it only a matter of time before an event will happen.
2126. Grothar
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
I have to admit, I had to look. Nuttin ATM.




What are you looking at?
Quoting snotly:


Given the costs of implementing vs. not implementing I'd say its worth it to protect the grid. Could you imagine the U.S. without a power grid running for more that 2 weeks. No ATM, No Flights, Transportation in chaos, Gas pumps not working, Grocery stores closed, no Air Conditioning, Dark streets at night without security, What I want to know is why there isn't a single oversight group for all power in the country. That'd be like trying to battle a foreign army with a militia run individually by each state or city.


And yer toilet won't flush! Yeah, $5 a head don't sound like much. Of course, the even better solution is to have no electrical "grid" at all. Everyone has their own power source (think Bloombox).

The Bloom Box: a power plant for the home
By Thomas Ricker posted Feb 22nd 2010 1:57AM



Quoting SevereHurricane:


I was outside staring at the clouds for 10 minutes as were the neighbors.


The storms are due on Maple Street!
parallel gfs 6z at hr 150 still shows a ts near tx/mx of course
ok guys you need to have your self discipline on track you are going to need it for at least 2 weeks..nothing will develop it's going to be a very boring time...just look at it this way it's the calm before the real storms develop..dry air and shear the two worse enemies have taken over the tropics for the time being...
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

Hey, Cool profile picture, how were you able to do that animation?
It was saved like that.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The storms are due on Maple Street!


Good thing I live on S. Lake Dr.!
GOOOOD morning all. How is everyone's little piece of this planet 3rd from the sun today? It was a clear blue sky day here, the temps didn't move very much, but tonight's going to be very cold, chance of heavy frost.

While I was at work today, I had this thought, Say in 100-250 years, If man-kind is still on this planet, If a time machine was invented and worked with out fault. Would anyone go back to the start of the 2005 Hurricane season and warn New Orleans about Katrina. Would anyone go back 2008 when Ike devastated Galveston. And back to earlier this year and warn Haiti and Chile. Or would you just let everything take it's course, and just be extra prepared?
2135. aquak9
Quoting MahFL:


Whats that got to do with Mx ?
Oh part of the reason is JAX is 17 miles inland from the ocean.
Also I was looking at old maps and indeed sometimes JAX does get hit directly.
Also the last time Miami was directly hit was in 1926. Imagine what would happen nowadays with the greatly increased population of Miami.


Hullo? Jax encompasses ALL of Duval county. We have PLENTY of shoreline and nearly a million inhabitants.

But you're right about Dora in '64. That was the last time we had hurricane force winds form a named system.
It looks like the "smiley" Walmart is in business in the Central Atlantic. It's a Supercenter with a "Fujiwhara" wannabe center.
Good morning, all.
Quoting Jeff9641:


True.. I have also noticed some coming off at 15N which you have to admit is troubling. We should have 2 of those wave come across next week. Another concern is the possibility of a trough building across the east in 14 to 18 days. Which is not far off base as we are now nearing August and the troughs will become more prevalent and this could put the whole eastern us on edge.


I really believe that we are looking at a 2007 setup or 2004 setup (Frances, Jeanne).
Both of those storms got to a higher latitude but were driven back to the west by the high.
This appears well on its way to becoming the next Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone.
Have a blessed day Storm.
Quoting hurrkat05:
ok guys you need to have your self discipline on track you are going to need it for at least 2 weeks..nothing will develop it's going to be a very boring time...just look at it this way it's the calm before the real storms develop..dry air and shear the two worse enemies have taken over the tropics for the time being...


Actually, everyone has been composed and very well behaved thus far this morning....You must be referring to some other blog you lurked through this morning to try and get some attention.......
Quoting AllStar17:
This appears well on its way to becoming the next Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone.
Agreed. Estelle appears to be on the way. However, the NHC hasn't mentioned it. I think its about time they do.
Quoting cyclonekid:
Agreed. Estelle appears to be on the way. However, the NHC hasn't mentioned it. I think its about time they do.
They have...its at 10%. My bad.
Bouy data says pressure tendencies are rising off the coast of S. Florida. I had to check, too.
Quoting cyclonekid:
Agreed. Estelle appears to be on the way. However, the NHC hasn't mentioned it. I think its about time they do.

The NHC did mention it and gave it a 10% chance. Just look at the latest EPAC TWO.
12z nam 60 hrs

the NHC mentions it
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Actually, everyone has been composed and very well behaved thus far this morning....You must be referring to some other blog you lurked through this morning to try and get some attention.......

Please refrain from feeding or acknowledging the trolls.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Please refrain from feeding or acknowledging the trolls.


Thanks for keeping me on track.....Good Morning Aussie..... :)
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I really believe that we are looking at a 2007 setup or 2004 setup (Frances, Jeanne).
Both of those storms got to a higher latitude but were driven back to the west by the high.


Your right buddy it could go either way. It all will hinge on how strong this high will be once things get popping.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thanks for keeping me on track.....Good Morning Aussie..... :)

Mornin'
read post 2144 he saw that they did
what is this?????!!!!!!
nam at 72 hr
Quoting btwntx08:
12z nam 60 hrs


Hi Rob, models keep wanting to send you a storm I see. This may not be your in regards to landfalls.
what ur looking at in the bahamas is a ull nothing at the surface
Quoting btwntx08:
nam at 72 hr


looks to be getting a little tug north but it should then turn wnw or nw.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hi Rob, models keep wanting to send you a storm I see. This may not be your in regards to landfalls.

hey jeff it is true its still 5+ days out it could hit anywhere from ms to mx imo
Atlantic Basin Shear at 144 hours:



Looking pretty light...144 hours = 6 days
Quoting btwntx08:

hey jeff it is true its still 5 days out it could hit anywhere from ms to mx imo

If it even develops at all, that is. Still though, it'll help keep this blog sane for at least a little while. Heck, I might even come out of lurk mode and have something to say on here more than one time a day!
2163. MahFL
Anyone who owns a house on a FL shoreline knows there is a chance that one day it might be destroyed, it's the risk people take for living near the ocean.
2154. jasoniscoolman2010x 10:44 AM EDT on July 16, 2010

Interesting shot and I just had to run some vis loops.....Sheer is very low down there but nothing was forecast in this area by the models, and it does not have a lot of time over water, so I would not expect a "surprise" spin up but stranger things have happend...Hopefully it will just remain a rain event for South Florida.
yep that thing in the bahamas is a ull 200 mb vitocity
well it it a ULL jasoniscoolman2010x

hmm much closer to us here in Cayman than the last two systems btwntx08
Quoting Floodman:
Atlantic Basin Shear at 144 hours:



Looking pretty light...144 hours = 6 days


Look at that anti cyclone along the Africa coast.
nam at 84 hr looks like a cancun landfall note its much stronger this run than the previous

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


There's a good journal article out on that point from a few years ago but I don't remember the source......Basically a "geometry" type of answer in terms of the trajectory of storms, movement towards the poles as they approach FL/Eastern Seabord (i.e, fish storms unless the A-B high blocks northward movement), and, the "protected" position of the JAX area as compared to the Carolinas which juts out into the Atlantic where the storms on the western edge of the A-B high tend to curve back out to sea........

wow, great!! sorry, i took a while, we were getting some heavy storms here in PR.
Palm Beach and Broward Counties under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
Quoting AussieStorm:
GOOOOD morning all. How is everyone's little piece of this planet 3rd from the sun today? It was a clear blue sky day here, the temps didn't move very much, but tonight's going to be very cold, chance of heavy frost.

While I was at work today, I had this thought, Say in 100-250 years, If man-kind is still on this planet, If a time machine was invented and worked with out fault. Would anyone go back to the start of the 2005 Hurricane season and warn New Orleans about Katrina. Would anyone go back 2008 when Ike devastated Galveston. And back to earlier this year and warn Haiti and Chile. Or would you just let everything take it's course, and just be extra prepared?

No one wants to answer my question?
Anyone feel this?

Quoting AussieStorm:

No one wants to answer my question?


To prevent the loss of life?......Of course I would go back.
Quoting StormW:


Thanks for answering that.

CaribbeanIslandStorm, wasn't ignoring you, just typing up my synopsis and trying to get it out.

Sorry, we had some strong storms that moved over us in Puerto Rico, i'm back, my internet connection acts weird when that happens, my apologizes. I wasn't ignoring anyone ;-)
Link

Nam 4 panel.."The nam be trippin'"
Can this lurker be thrown some scraps sometimes?
2177. Patrap
BP: Pressure inside well is 6,700 pounds per square inch and rising


Published: Friday, July 16, 2010, 7:09 AM Updated: Friday, July 16, 2010, 9:20 AM
Jaquetta White, The Times-Picayune


Pressure inside the blown out Maconodo well in the Gulf of Mexico is at about 6,700 pounds per square inch and slowly rising, BP Vice President Kent Wells said this morning.

BP shut in the well Thursday so that it no longer is shooting oil into the sea and is measuring pressure inside of it to determine if the well can remain closed.

Wells said six remote operated vehicles monitoring the site have not found signs of oil leaking out of the well and into the rock formation surrounding it. Oil in the rock formation would have been a sign that the well was damaged and would need to be reopened.

Later today BP will conduct a seismic survey of the site to determine if oil is leaking out lower in the well bore. The results of that survey won't be available for 24 hours, Wells said.

Wells said pressure of 8,000 to 9,000 pounds per square inch would indicate that the well is completely intact and signal that it can be left closed until a relief well pumps it with cement to permanently seal it next month. Pressure of lower than 6,000 psi, Wells said would indicate that the well does not have integrity and that oil is escaping through fissures somewhere along the well. In that instance the well would be reopened and oil would be pumped to vessels on the surface.

Pressure between those two numbers provide a grey area that needs "detailed analysis" by a team of scientists before a decision is made on how to proceed, Wells said.
I wonder if this ULL SSE of Miami will work down to the surface.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Anyone feel this?


I just read about that. Maybe Obama was pounding his head against the wall.
2180. Patrap
Quoting AussieStorm:

No one wants to answer my question?



Time is Linear..and no one can go back.

It s a parodox one could say.

And for those of us who lost friends and family..well.
It dosent savvy I guess.
Quoting btwntx08:
nam at 84 hr looks like a cancun landfall note its much stronger this run than the previous


The central pressure must be around 1000-995 millibars, with winds around 50 to 70 mph.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


To prevent the loss of life?......Of course I would go back.

But, think of the consequences of doing that.
2184. Patrap
Quoting AussieStorm:

I just read about that. Maybe Obama was pounding his head against the wall.


Actually it was Dick Cheney's new Heart assisted device being rejected I think,
Quoting AussieStorm:

I just read about that. Maybe Obama was pounding his head against the wall.


LOL
Quoting MahFL:
Anyone who owns a house on a FL shoreline knows there is a chance that one day it might be destroyed, it's the risk people take for living near the ocean.


Our high insurance rates reminds us every month when it's time to pay.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I just read about that. Maybe Obama was pounding his head against the wall.

LOL. But don't joke about the president.
new blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As to the Florida/Bahamas area, winds gusting to 19 knots at this location in the Bahamas, but, pressure is rising:

Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location: 26.704N 78.994W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 16 Jul 2010 14:00:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (110°) at 17.1 kt gusting to 19.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.12 in and rising
Air Temperature: 84.6 F
Dew Point: 72.5 F

NEW BLOG!!!!!
Quoting Patrap:


Actually it was Dick Cheney's new Heart assisted device being rejected I think,


Actually that was a result of a phone call from Mel Gibson. ZING!
Quoting AussieStorm:

No one wants to answer my question?


2193. TheUno
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Anyone feel this?



Yep - and I felt the Loma Prieta quake in '89 - the time 5:04 is ingrained in our heads from that one...and lo and behold, when I woke to the shaking, looked at the clock this morning - 5:04. Of course I laughed this one off...but folks were freakin' out a little here this morning...
Quoting AussieStorm:

No one wants to answer my question?


What if we went back and tried to warn poeple about Katrina, or Ike, or for that matter the other events in your example...firstly, who would believe you? You'd likely end up in a 5150 hearing and potentially heavily sedated in a state run institution. It it were finally proven you weren't nuts (after landfall, say) you would be held by the government (they couldn't have someone with knowledge of the furture ruinning around...think about what you could do to the markets/economies, etc?

Now here comes the biggie: you are chosen by the authorities of the furture to go back and warn people; the majority of those that would have died survive and someone you save kills your great great grandad before he has children...POOF! you disappear and no one is sent back...or someone else that isn't effected is sent and they CAN'T convince people...see the paradox?

You'd have to think that any time traveling society would not, under any circumstqances, want to go back into history to change the way things were done...time travel is like any other travel; over long distances even tiny course changes early on translate into wide variances at point of arrival.

Quoting AussieStorm:

No one wants to answer my question?
Not sure what I would do, but whatever you're drinking to come up with the question, pour me some
Quoting Patrap:



Time is Linear..and no one can go back.

It s a parodox one could say.

And for those of us who lost friends and family..well.
It dosent savvy I guess.


Per the numbers, time travel is possible, but not in the way one imagines it, though there are some physicists who say with the right technology a ton of study and enough power it be possible. I don't pretend to understand the math (it's WAY above my pay grade) but remember: there was a time when phyicists thought that a controlled nuclear reaction was impossible and that any attempt at one could very well result in a run-away reaction that envelopes the planet and beyond. Even Oppenheimer was only 70% convinced that the Trinity test wouldn't result in a planet wide conflagration involving the atmosphere; think about it: he thought that the first test would pretty wipe the planet (yet we still did it...hmmmm).

Our great grand kids my figure it out, but I hope they're smart enough to not mess with history...
2198. TheUno
Best quote on the DC earthquake this morning, "Albert Haynesworth must've come to town."
NEW BLOG