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La Niña fades to neutral; April the globe's 4th - 7th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:12 PM GMT on May 17, 2011

April 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated April the 4th warmest on record, tied with April 2005. April 2011 global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. The UK had its hottest April on record, with rainfall only 21% of average. Huge fires burned through Scotland, England, and Northern Ireland, fanned by strong spring winds.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April, 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña fades to neutral
The La Niña that began in June 2010 is now transitioning to neutral conditions, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America are now just 0.4°C below average, the first time since June 2010 that these temperatures have not been 0.5°C or more cooler than average, the threshold for a La Niña. However, it is possible that these water could cool a bit again over the next few weeks, so NOAA has not yet declared an official end to this La Niña episode. Equatorial SSTs were 0.5°C below average in the central Pacific, and average to above-average temperatures have emerged in the eastern Pacific. While this signals the end to La Niña, the CPC cautions that the atmosphere is still behaving like La Niña is continuing. An animation of SSTs since February shows the weakening La Niña nicely. Springtime is the most common time for a La Niña event to end; since 1950, half of all La Niñas ended in March, April, or May.

Arctic sea ice 5th lowest on record
Arctic sea ice declined slowly through most of April, and had the 5th lowest extent since satellite record began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. However, sea ice extent began declining more quickly toward the end of the month, and as of May 16 was the second lowest on record.

I'll have more on the Mississippi River flood next post. If you haven't seen it, read my post, America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River Old River Control Structure.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Angela is a new wunderground hire, with a Masters degree in Meteorology, who will be helping out with my blog and the site's weather education and climate change content.

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting DDR:
The wave around 50w should reach here(Trinidad) late tonight/early Thursday.
Did you get any from that dark sky that came up from the SW yesterday?
It did not reach here, but POS looked heavy.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Boy the Euro is getting interesting it is showing a lowering of pressures in the Western Caribbean next week. You can also see a disturbance or tropical wave heading north up out of the NW Caribbean early next to mid next week. Looks like the Caribbean is about to get active over the next several days.


Yeah. I think that's what this says... Link

THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS COME BY THE WEEKEND WHEN THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION IS THE DEEPEST OF THE MODELS AND IS THE ONLY ONE TO CARRY 20 KT
WINDS ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES W-NW THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE 00Z NOGAPS AND UKMET BRIEFLY CARRY A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WAVE...BUT DO NOT BUILD 20 KT
WINDS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN WEAKER STILL AND MAKES THE WAVE INDISTINGUISHABLE BY SUN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRONG GFS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO AT
LEAST CARRY THE WAVE THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...USED THE NOGAPS/UKMET SOLUTIONS AS A GUIDE.
503. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Did you get any from that dark sky that came up from the SW yesterday?
It did not reach here, but POS looked heavy.

Nope,it rained heavy in St James and in the Gulf of Paria,even heard a couple rumbles of thunder while in that area.Last rain i had was Sunday.ttyl
Quoting BobinTampa:
Does anyone know what time on Saturday the world will end? I need a haircut (want to look good for the Big Guy Upstairs) and I have a 10:45 tee time. I'd hate for the world to end right in the middle of my backswing.

LOL to that!
In the absence of a Confirmed Time, I will probably stay in bed all day.
I like the idea of achieving Bliss in a prone position.
....only 3 shopping days left till the Apocalypse
Quoting BobinTampa:
Does anyone know what time on Saturday the world will end? I need a haircut (want to look good for the Big Guy Upstairs) and I have a 10:45 tee time. I'd hate for the world to end right in the middle of my backswing.
they say around 6 pm or just after the end comes with the first 10.2 quake off new zealand massive global tidal wave of purple kool aid follows the big nap right after the dip in the drink


Quoting Patrap:
....only 3 shopping days left till the Apocalypse

So, what you doing on Sunday Pat?
..blogging in Paradise maybe?

LoL
BobinTampa, I have heard that its at 1800 whatever timezone you happen to be in. :-)
Quoting BobinTampa:
Does anyone know what time on Saturday the world will end? I need a haircut (want to look good for the Big Guy Upstairs) and I have a 10:45 tee time. I'd hate for the world to end right in the middle of my backswing.


LOL! Hopefully it happens after a night of drinks with my friends. Atleast I will be to drunk to know what's going on.
511. Jax82
Hmmm, when will this mysterious 'rainy season' commence in FL? My forecast shows not soon.

Quoting roberie:
BobinTampa, I have heard that its at 1800 whatever timezone you happen to be in. :-)

Wow!
A sort of Rolling Redemption.
Sounds like a Blast.
Quoting Jax82:
Hmmm, when will this mysterious 'rainy season' commence in FL? My forecast shows not soon.




Nothing here either. Wow 49 in your forecast. Looks like the heat getting turned back on here in Orlando as this is the last day in the 80's.
Anyway, see you guys later.
Keep safe...
Quoting roberie:
BobinTampa, I have heard that its at 1800 whatever timezone you happen to be in. :-)


If that's the case then I need to start drinking at 1300.
Just to clarify, if it does happen in the middle of my backswing, am I entitled to a Mulligan?

I want to make sure my buddies are clear on the Rapture Rules before we start the round.
Quoting BobinTampa:
Just to clarify, if it does happen in the middle of my backswing, am I entitled to a Mulligan?

I want to make sure my buddies are clear on the Rapture Rules before we start the round.


As long as you abide by the "one mulligan per 9 holes" rule, I think you should be fine. Of course, no one is going to be checking your score sheet afterward, so I'd give yourself a birdie and play through to the next hole.

On the weather front...what happened to the storms we were supposed to get in Palm Beach yesterday. Oh well...can't complain because it's beautiful today.
This explains it nicely for you:Link
Um....not good.



the post-apocolyptic weather looks to be pleasant...
Who is the largest Atlantic hurricane in Size?And i love this pic.
523. P451
Imagery is WV and loops are static in nature (will not update).

Last 48-24 hour period:




Last 24-0 hour period:




Over 3" of rain here in SE NY State. Several areas in NJ, CT, MA received continuous training echoes and are over the 6" mark. Another 2" on the way.

While for the most part flooding is isolated in these areas, where it does occur it's just as bad as anywhere with homes and businesses flooded out.

It's not quite the Mississippi flood plain of course which can stretch more than 75 miles across in some locations.

This continued pattern, this slow moving blocked pattern, is not helpful to anyone-anywhere.

Check the low in the Central Atlantic on these two loops: You'll see after 48 hours it just looks like it's starting to nudge off to the East in the final frames of the second loop.

That entity has caused about 3 weeks of "bad" weather up here. First 2 were a cold and very dry setup and now the 3rd week is flooding rains. Haven't bothered to check what it's doing to Europe's weather.
524. P451
Quoting Gearsts:
Who is the largest Atlantic hurricane in Size?And i love this pic.


The problem with "largest hurricane" is that in the largest their outflow regions make up for over 50% of their diameter whereas the more compact systems' outflow regions barely makeup 10% or less of their diameter.

I would rather take these systems and plot their cores, be it TS windfield or H windfield regions and compare those. Perhaps just the CDO actually.

Here's a crude illustration:



See what I am alluding to? I think it brings the perspective more in line with what you'd want to study in terms of storm size. Floyd was bigger than Andrew of course but not as much larger as the outflow teases your eyes to believe.
Quoting Gearsts:
Who is the largest Atlantic hurricane in Size?And i love this pic.

How is this statistic determined? Diameter of gale force or hurricane winds? It seems you could come up with several different answers. Wasn't Igor of last year one of the largest ever?
526. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:
the post-apocolyptic weather looks to be pleasant...


I've dug my hole, just in case. Weather does look good though when i crawl out sunday. ;)
Quoting Jax82:


I've dug my hole, just in case. Weather does look good though when i crawl out sunday. ;)

wallerin' around in a mud hole? oh that sounds like fun!
Quoting Gearsts:
Who is the largest Atlantic hurricane in Size?And i love this pic.


Ike



Pretty neat setup here in N.e. North Carolina. Moisture streaming all the way from the Bahamas! It also is heading all the way to Ohio.
I didn't know the world was ending...shees..so much to do, so little time...does anyone have Rafa Nadal's phone number?
I dunno; perhaps there's something to all this. Here's a totally not true screenshot of my town's WU forecast:

Click for much larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I dunno; perhaps there's something to all this. Here's a totally not true screenshot of my town's WU forecast:

Click for much larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


;-)
LOL
Just in case there are some on here lurking and wondering what the "End Times" remarks are referring to...

The End

Edit: May 21st is "The Beginning of the End" =)
Quoting KeysieLife:
Just in case there are some on here lurking and wondering what the "End Times" remarks are referring to...

The End

Edit: May 21st is "The Beginning of the End" =)
Somehow,I'm sure it involves giving money to the messenger!
Quoting overwash12:
Somehow,I'm sure it involves giving money to the messenger!

Right? Funny thing is they still promote listening to their radio channel...if things were ending in a few days, why try to self promote? Mighty dollar right to "The End"

It's a good read though. I like that the dates coincide with the season...could be VERY interesting this year! =)
Nicaragua's Telica volcano spewed a massive cloud of gas and ash into the air Tuesday following several strong explosions. Material was ejected 1.2 kilometres into the air above the crater of the 1,060-metre volcano, the seismological institute Ineter said. A total of 50 explosions were recorded. Since May 9, Ineter has recorded 59 seismic shocks in the area, and Telica had ejected a large amount of sand on nearby cities since Friday. Sixty nearby villages were evacuated as a precautionary measure. The volcano is located in Leon province, some 130 kilometres north-west of Managua. It last erupted in 1948.


Neo~ I was thinking a little higher than 88 Mon & Tues.. or maybe all the volcano caused cloudiness will off set some hell & brimstone..
Quoting KeysieLife:
Just in case there are some on here lurking and wondering what the "End Times" remarks are referring to...

The End

Edit: May 21st is "The Beginning of the End" =)


That is a bunch of bull crap!!! It says in the WORD of GOD that no man will no the day nor hour of the Coming of Christ. These people are idiots and are going to face their judgement for tricking people into thinking that Saturday is the last day on Earth. Many people will commit suicide knowing they gave up everything for this thinking. Idiots!! Read the bible itself and then tell me Judgement day is on Saturday. The word of God says no one knows the day nor hour of His Coming.
These people, Harold Cambing is a mockery to our Christian Faith. So messed up to do something like this, and for people believe this?? They are not walking right with God.
Quoting reedzone:


That is a bunch of bull crap!!! It says in the WORD of GOD that no man will no the day nor hour of the Coming of Christ. These people are idiots and are going to face their judgement for tricking people into thinking that Saturday is the last day on Earth. Many people will commit suicide knowing they gave up everything for this thinking. Idiots!! Read the bible itself and then tell me Judgement day is on Saturday. The word of God says no one knows the day nor hour of His Coming.


Hi Reed! Hey could you give us a mock-up of the Apocalyptic weather charts for this weekend?
Has anybody made a list on here for predictions on what day we will have our first Tropical storm in the atl. basin? If so,my day is June 17th. lol
Quoting KeysieLife:


Hi Reed! Hey could you give us a mock-up of the Apocalyptic weather charts for this weekend?


Saturday will be a normal day, no death, no destruction.. well maybe some tornadoes in the plains. There will be no great big earthquake. This would go against the bible, which I strongly believe in. Harold Cambing will most likely commit suicide, making people think he was the only one raptured or move to another country, making himself never known again.
Quoting reedzone:


That is a bunch of bull crap!!! It says in the WORD of GOD that no man will no the day nor hour of the Coming of Christ. These people are idiots and are going to face their judgement for tricking people into thinking that Saturday is the last day on Earth. Many people will commit suicide knowing they gave up everything for this thinking. Idiots!! Read the bible itself and then tell me Judgement day is on Saturday. The word of God says no one knows the day nor hour of His Coming.

True.
But I trust that when He arrives, he has taken off his white robe, and shaved. We will only believe Him if He looks the part. If He looks like He comes from Palestine, He's a gonna again.
A business suit, neatly combed hair and a sparkling smile would do nicely.
Otherwise His 'profile' will result in immediate arrest as He gets to the border.

Reality sukks.
Quoting overwash12:
Has anybody made a list on here for predictions on what day we will have our first Tropical storm in the atl. basin? If so,my day is June 17th. lol


if a tropical storm forms and there's no one around to name it, is it still a tropical storm?

Quoting DestinJeff:


but they do know 91-L should have been upgraded to a TS last year.


Yep, they'll never let that one go.
Quoting aquak9:


if a tropical storm forms and there's no one around to name it, is it still a tropical storm?

Even if there is a rapture,there will be people left behind! So,what is you're prediction?
I believe our first storm will form around the beginning of June, conditions are quickly becoming favorable in the Western Caribbean.
Quoting aquak9:


if a tropical storm forms and there's no one around to name it, is it still a tropical storm?



Hmmm, that kind of question needs serious philosophical debate....
God's view,,Miss Delta

Patrap,That's swamp peep's backyard!
3 day history of conditions here in Northeast Massachusetts. Almost a consistent fog/mist for the past 72 hrs if it's not raining. Go to FL they actually need it! Low pressure doesn't seem to be in a rush to go anywhere either.

Lawrence, MA
Conditions past 72 hrs

Link
555. P451
Thought we still had 21 months to go until "THE END".

What's this new fangled Mid-Day 2011 Apocolypse I've never heard of?

Have I waited too long to max out my credit cards and have unprotected sex with strangers?
Quoting P451:
Thought we still had 21 months to go until "THE END".

What's this new fangled Mid-Day 2011 Apocolypse I've never heard of?

Have I waited too long to max out my credit cards and have unprotected sex with strangers?


It's a scam for money.. Real Christians know that the bible directly says, words in red, we will not know the day nor the hour of His coming. He may come a minute from now or 300 years from now. So this whole end of the world thing is bull. Besides, the bible also states that it will take 7 years of Tribulation, not 5 months. Harold Camping is distorting the bible and creating his own cult/religion.
Quoting DestinJeff:


You'd think with all the calamity scheduled for Saturday that God wouldn't have the time to snap pictures of the delta. I mean, planning and executing the End of Times must be a logistical nightmare! He must be quite the multi-tasker.


"1 day is as 1000 years, and 1000 years is as 1 day."

- I think He has time on his hands...
Pass da Tabasco, cher

..."Choot um Liz,,take da schott!!!



Quoting reedzone:


Saturday will be a normal day, no death, no destruction.. well maybe some tornadoes in the plains. There will be no great big earthquake. This would go against the bible, which I strongly believe in. Harold Cambing will most likely commit suicide, making people think he was the only one raptured or move to another country, making himself never known again.

I doubt Camping will kill himself; he didn't the last time his EOTW prediction failed back in September of 1994. No, he'll just change his story and say that God told him that the world is now on borrowed time, and people have a very limited number of days in which to get make their selves right and, of course, to fork over some more green to Camping's ministry.

I for one plan to write him a HUGE check. From someone else's account.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I doubt Camping will kill himself; he didn't the last time his EOTW prediction failed back in September of 1994. No, he'll just change his story and say that God told him that the world is now on borrowed time, and people have a very limited number of days in which to get make their selves right and, of course, to fork over some more green to Camping's ministry.

I for one plan to write a HUGE check. From someone else's account.


Good post :) .. That's probably exactly what's gonna happen.
Quoting Patrap:
Pass da Tabasco, cher

..."Choot um Liz,,take da schott!!!





Pat, is that your avatar's son?

'Da Swamp is now mainstream!
Quoting reedzone:


That is a bunch of bull crap!!! It says in the WORD of GOD that no man will no the day nor hour of the Coming of Christ. These people are idiots and are going to face their judgement for tricking people into thinking that Saturday is the last day on Earth. Many people will commit suicide knowing they gave up everything for this thinking. Idiots!! Read the bible itself and then tell me Judgement day is on Saturday. The word of God says no one knows the day nor hour of His Coming.



I really can't believe people are actually preparing for this, it's sickening. To go back to the time of Jesus would mean studying the Torah. The Torah makes no mention of the end.

In my opinion, religion is a highly corrupted business, for the most part that is. I believe, I pray however, in my own time.
I have my own son 18 and a Guitar Master in the making,,however the Swamp near Manchac is like a second home.

If your ever here,I can show it to yas.


Bring Mosquito Repellent and a Pair o Hip Boots too.
Quoting DestinJeff:


is that computer generated age-enhanced photo of Cantore?

Nope, Abrams...
Quoting sunlinepr:

Nice to see PR finally drying out a bit.
Swamp people is one of my fav shows...
hope liz's ankle heals up fast or Troy might choot her...
570. Jax82
well, i sure hope there's a weather underground blog in heaven, but I'm thinking the weather is always perfect there :-\
Quoting Patrap:
Pass da Tabasco, cher

..."Choot um Liz,,take da schott!!!





Hey there Pat. Troy is one of my new heros, Swamp People is a good show. I've been thinking about them and the flooding, gonna mess things up, I'd think.
Dem gators will be there,,we expecting a good season after they close Bonnet Carre.

Quoting Jax82:
well, i sure hope there's a weather underground blog in heaven, but I'm thinking the weather is always perfect there :-\


but everyone's perfect weather, is different
Quoting jeffs713:

Nice to see PR finally drying out a bit.


Finally dry... our Basil plants in the garden were drowning....
Quoting Patrap:
Dem gators will be there,,we expecting a good season after they close Bonnet Carre.



Good to hear....take care and I hope the arm is healing real fast.
Quoting Jax82:
well, i sure hope there's a weather underground blog in heaven, but I'm thinking the weather is always perfect there :-\

Yes, but then you get to watch weather all over, and can be more objective.
ITCZ / Big wave reaching SA

Thanx eyes..itsa kinda slow now 13 days post op,and I see the Dr. again June 1.

Rehab sched to begin June 23.

Quoting Patrap:
Pass da Tabasco, cher

..."Choot um Liz,,take da schott!!!





Love that show! It does kinda look like it could be Jim Cantore in 10 years. LOL
Quoting Neapolitan:
I dunno; perhaps there's something to all this. Here's a totally not true screenshot of my town's WU forecast:

Click for much larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


;-)


Well, now we know. The lawyer is too cheap to pay for a membership - he is a freeloader. Lawyers!!!!
LOL
Quoting DestinJeff:


You'd think with all the calamity scheduled for Saturday that God wouldn't have the time to snap pictures of the delta. I mean, planning and executing the End of Times must be a logistical nightmare! He must be quite the multi-tasker.


ROTFLMAO!!!

Thanks DJ!!!!
Quoting reedzone:


That is a bunch of bull crap!!! It says in the WORD of GOD that no man will no the day nor hour of the Coming of Christ. These people are idiots and are going to face their judgement for tricking people into thinking that Saturday is the last day on Earth. Many people will commit suicide knowing they gave up everything for this thinking. Idiots!! Read the bible itself and then tell me Judgement day is on Saturday. The word of God says no one knows the day nor hour of His Coming.


Look at it this way Reed, we will have a whole bunch of new Darwin Awards to pass out.
That East Coast Low has kept us wet for 3 days now and looks to stay that way until Sunday - if we survive.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Look at it this way Reed, we will have a whole bunch of new Darwin Awards to pass out.


Yes!! Yes we do! :)
new blog
Aquak9, are you sure ebay sold out of the fishy shower curtains? I was going to use one to duck and cover with on Saturday.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Well, now we know. The lawyer is too cheap to pay for a membership - he is a freeloader. Lawyers!!!!
LOL

Wrong, DS. On several counts. A) I'm not a lawyer. B) "Neapolitan" is a paid membership; that was a snapshot from a different browser (computers can run multiple programs nowadays; I can point you to some tutorials if you need help learning all about multitasking). C) Do you ever have anything of substance to add here? Anything? Anything at all? (And, no, endlessly posting "Amy!!" doesn't count as "substantial".) ;-)

P.S. -- I do appreciate your obsessing over me; it makes me feel wanted. Really. ;-)