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La Niña conditions end; 10th warmest March on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:53 PM GMT on April 17, 2009

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and deep water temperatures have warmed significantly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific over the first two weeks of April, and La Niña conditions are no longer present. While NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has not yet declared an end to this La Niña episode and dropped their La Niña advisory, it is very likely that the La Niña event that began in December 2008 is now over. The big question is whether an El Niño event will rapidly form in its place, in time for hurricane season. This did happen after the 1976 La Niña, which ended in April, with a weak El Niño beginning in September. However, it can take a few months for the atmosphere to adjust to the formation of a new El Niño, and there is no guarantee that a weak El Niño for the coming hurricane season would act to dramatically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity.The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds. Nearly all the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Four out of 21 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season; three are predicting a La Niña, and fourteen are predicting neutral conditions.


Figure 1. The difference of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for the Niña 3.4 region of the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W). La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the Niña 3.4 region cools below -0.5°C. La Niña conditions began in December 2008 and ended in late March 2009. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Tenth warmest March on record for the globe
Global temperatures remained about where they've been the past two years, with the planet recording its 10th warmest March on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - March was the eighth warmest such period on record.

An average March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., March temperatures were the 51st warmest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month had near-average precipitation, ranking as the 42nd wettest March. Three states (Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey) experienced their driest year-to-date period ever. In neighboring states, Pennsylvania recorded its second driest year-to-date period and Massachusetts and West Virgnia experienced their fourth and fifth driest, respectively. The below-normal precipitation averages led to the driest ever start to the year for the Northeast region. Record amounts of snow fell in North Dakota during March. Fargo received 28.1 inches, which was nearly 2 more inches than the previous March record set in 1997. Fargo also recorded 4.62 inches of precipitation which set a new monthly record. Runoff from the record precipitation led to the highest flood levels ever observed on the Red River in North Dakota. The river crested in Fargo at a record level of 12.4 m (40.8 feet), shattering the previous record of 12.2 m (40.1 feet) set in 1897.

Through March, the U.S. has only seen about 50% of normal tornado activity for the year, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. There were just 9 tornado deaths through March, compared to 70 deaths through March of 2008, and the 3-year average of 44 deaths.

On April 14, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 21% figure observed January through March.

Bahamas 2009 Weather Conference
This week, many of the world's hurricane experts are gathered at the Bahamas Hurricane Conference. Check out their web site for short videos by some of the presenters. The 3-minute talk by NHC Director Bill Read and former NHC Director Max Mayfield on the inadequacy of our familiar Category 1-2-3-4-5 Saffir-Simpson scale is interesting. They make the point that no one scale will ever be able to capture the threats a hurricane poses, since these depend greatly on exactly what track the storm takes, and our forecasts will never be able to precisely pinpoint the track. Thus, introducing a new scale to quantify storm surge risk is not a complete solution to the inadequacies of the Saffir-Simpson scale. Coastal residents need to heed the detailed wind and storm surge forecasts for their area, regardless of what Category storm is approaching.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. beell
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh there might be another April storm this century, but not today. Drakoen is right, there's no there there.


Thank you
all4hurricanes

Date: 20-Apr-09 - 24-Apr-09 morning


RA IV Hurricane Committee, Thirty-first session

---
probably just before May when the final analysis is released.


edit: had the wrong meeting posted


ReliefWEB

Bangladesh: Tropical Cyclone Bijli - Apr 2009


Updates on Bangladesh affected by the Bangladesh: Tropical Cyclone Bijli - Apr 2009 emergency. GLIDE No. TC-2009-000078-BGD

Tropical Cyclone Bijli 2009 SitRep
New method to track cyclone paths unveiled

T. V. Padma

17 April 2009 | EN |
cyclone_guano.jpg

Reale says their new method will be useful for cyclone forecasting in the northern Indian Ocean

Flickr/guano

[NEW DELHI] A prediction method developed by NASA scientists holds promise for filling in information gaps and improving advance warning in cyclone-prone areas.

Prompted by the devastating cyclone Nargis that struck the Myanmar coast in May 2008, killing an estimated 135,000 people, NASA scientists re-examined their data and modelling approaches using Nargis as a test case.

In the case of Nargis, forecasters tracking the cyclone in late April 2008 predicted it would hit Bangladesh but to their surprise it veered east gaining strength along the way and struck Myanmar on 2 May.

7 deaths nearly 80 injured isn't bad for a 40-50 knot (JTWC) system.

The IMD had the system as a depression when it crossed Bangladesh.

sad story with the boy being crushed by a fallen tree and the grandpa having an heart attack while being with a 9 mos old child that also died. =(
Orange Earthquake Alert in Indonesia

On 4/19/2009 5:23:27 AM UTC an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 and depth 35km has struck an highly populated area in the Sulawesi Utara Province (population: 2.6 million) in Indonesia. GDACS estimates the likelihood for need of international humanitarian intervention to be medium (Orange alert).
Quoting Patrap:
Orange Earthquake Alert in Indonesia

On 4/19/2009 5:23:27 AM UTC an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 and depth 35km has struck an highly populated area in the Sulawesi Utara Province (population: 2.6 million) in Indonesia. GDACS estimates the likelihood for need of international humanitarian intervention to be medium (Orange alert).


That's not good ! Lots of after shocks of significance. Not good at all. Keep those folks in your thoughts and prayers.

Link
As mentioned disturbance in the gulf is way up there no signs of a surface reflection.Rain for northern florida.

Back to NBA playoffs.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
WEST CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT


* AT 503 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR COALING...
OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOLT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROOKWOOD BY 510 PM CDT...
BEVILLE LOCK AND DAM BY 515 PM CDT...
VANCE BY 520 PM CDT...
WOODSTOCK JUNCTION...WEST BLOCTON AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ABERNANT
BY 530 PM CDT...
LAKE VIEW BY 540 PM CDT...
TANNEHILL IRONWORKS STATE PARK BY 545 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES
AND INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 158 THROUGH 1
Quoting hurricane23:
As mentioned disturbance in the gulf is way up there no signs of a surface reflection.Rain for northern florida.

Back to NBA playoffs.


It's in reference to the future system that the GFS showed on its 00z run.
I wonder if "non-professionals" can attend the Bahamas Hurricane Conference. It would be cool to get to see these folks in person and listen to their white papers / presentations.

Th
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
WEST CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT


* AT 518 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BIGBEE...OR
ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHATOM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT 530 PM CDT
RURAL WESTERN CLARKE COUNTY AT 540 PM CDT
RURAL NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT 540 PM CDT
its disappeared phatom storms cmc will start doing same too got to wait till something pretty much shows up on surface
all we need is just a little patence
we will all know when its time
Quoting PresidentialElection:


''Showed'' meaning it's no longer showing it, Drak?


Nothing there give it a couple weeks.
Hiccup!
Quoting hurricane23:


Nothing there give it a couple weeks.
\

This is all Keeper's fault lol.
shhh
lol
The westerlies are still firmly entrenched.
Until this flow changes,.all is moot.

GOES-12 Atmospheric Animations
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GROVE HILL...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT


* AT 536 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
WINN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROVE HILL...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WINN BY 550 PM CDT...
WHATELY BY 620 PM CDT...


Take the Grace of time now to be Be Prepared

"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by all."

Hurricane Season: Are You Prepared?Throughout this Web site, information has been provided regarding actions that you can take based on specific hurricane hazards. The most important thing that you can do is to be informed and prepared. Disaster prevention includes both being prepared as well as reducing damages (mitigation).

Disaster Prevention should include:

* Developing a Family Plan
* Creating a Disaster Supply Kit
* Having a Place to Go
* Securing your Home
* Having a Pet Plan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MARION...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GREENSBORO...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT


* AT 539 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DUFFYS
BEND...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEMOPOLIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GREENSBORO MUNICIPAL AIRPORT BY 550 PM CDT...
GREENSBORO AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWBERN BY 555 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 205 THROUGH 219.
I heard that some hurricane prone states have delayed the transition from analog to digital til the end of hurricane season for those with the portable battery-operatored tv's, amongst other reasons. Is this true in your state? I have not heard anything about this in Fla.


Switch to Digital TV Wins a Delay to June 12


By BRIAN STELTER
Published: February 4, 2009

The vast majority of households are prepared for the conversion, but despite an estimated $1 billion information campaign, millions of households with older TV sets are not yet ready. When stations turn off their analog signals, those households will not be able to view the channels unless they install converter boxes to translate the digital signals.

Mr. Obama and other Democrats raised concerns last month about consumer readiness for the switch. Before Mr. Obama took office, his transition team noted that financing for the government’s coupon program, meant to subsidize the cost of converter boxes, had temporarily run out, placing millions of households on a waiting list.

“Yes, it would be great if everyone had received their coupons, and if everybody understood the transition to digital, but they don’t,” Representative Maxine Waters, a Democrat from California, said Wednesday during the House’s debate. She said that some people, senior citizens in particular, were going to be “terribly inconvenienced.”

Some House Republicans had opposed a delay, saying that it would only increase confusion about the impending transition. “No matter what date you establish, there’s always going to be somebody who doesn’t get the message,” Representative Cliff Stearns, a Republican from Florida, said during the House debate.

More Here...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
WEST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT


* AT 558 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEWBURG...
OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
MT HOPE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
604 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT


* AT 602 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
WALKER SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROVE HILL...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SUGGSVILLE BY 645 PM CDT...

A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED 4 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF JACKSON AT
ABOUT 555 PM.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
612 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BRENT...
NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MARION...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT


* AT 612 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF MARION...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
GREENSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARION BY 625 PM CDT...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARRISBURG BY 650 PM CDT...
Sigh...I doubt we will get any rain here in PSL tomorrow
Quoting futuremet:
Sigh...I doubt we will get any rain here in PSL tomorrow


We will probably stay dry.
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Current Home weather station data.

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT


* AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
LANDERSVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR MOULTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
WREN.
MOULTON.
SPEAKE.
NEEL
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PELHAM...CHELSEA...ALABASTER...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT


* AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
ALABASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
OAK MOUNTAIN STATE PARK BY 630 PM CDT...
CHELSEA BY 635 PM CDT...
HIGHLAND LAKES...MOUNT LAUREL AND FOWLER LAKE BY 640 PM CDT...
WESTOVER BY 645 PM CDT...
VINCENT...VANDIVER AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARPERSVILLE BY 655 PM
CDT...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WILSONVILLE...COLUMBIANA...
ALABASTER...
SOUTHWESTERN TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SYLACAUGA...CHILDERSBURG...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT


* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MAYLENE...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTEVALLO...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MAYLENE BY 630 PM CDT...
AMERICAN VILLAGE AND ALABASTER BY 635 PM CDT...
COLUMBIANA BY 650 PM CDT...
WILSONVILLE BY 700 PM CDT...
CHILDERSBURG BY 705 PM CDT...
CHILDERSBURG BY 710 PM CDT...
Another one

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MONROEVILLE...
EAST CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT


* AT 644 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLAIBORNE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROVE HILL...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FOUNTAIN BY 710 PM CDT...
If this were June, that Gulf of Mexico disturbance would have a shot at development.
new invest 97P
Hello everyone....looks like some rough weather for some.
One can usually look at this graphic and if severe weather will occur. This will usually paint the picture...as is now.

NWS Service Assessment Report Uncovers Why Some People Don't Heed Severe Weather Warnings

In reviewing the public response, the team found that two-thirds of the victims were in mobile homes, and 60 percent did not have access to safe shelter (i.e., a basement or storm cellar). The majority of the survivors interviewed for the assessment sought shelter in the best location available to them, but most of them also did not have access to a safe shelter. Some indicated they thought the threat was minimal because February is not within traditional tornado season. Several of those interviewed said they spent time seeking confirmation and went to a safe location only after they saw a tornado. Many people minimized the threat of personal risk through "optimism bias," the belief that such bad things only happen to other people.

On forecasting performance, the assessment team found that the National Weather Service issued warnings 17 minutes, on average, in advance of all the deadly tornadoes. The agency's Storm Prediction Center had been monitoring the tornado threat for several days. Local forecast offices forewarned communities by issuing hazardous weather outlooks days in advance
mid atlantic outlook are we supposed to get strong/severe storms?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
mid atlantic outlook are we supposed to get strong/severe storms?


Yes a threat does appear possible....

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
mid atlantic outlook are we supposed to get strong/severe storms?


Last I checked on SPC, yes. The greatest area appears to be from southern North Carolina northward to central Virginia.

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
Police raid dozens of homes as climate change activists arrestedComputers and mobile phone records seized in pre-emptive strike on summer climate action
hey jfv
Is 551 JFV ?
Quoting kmanislander:
Is 551 JFV ?


Ya i think so.
Hmmm !
i think so myself
he already earlier in the day admitted he was...and he "waved the white flag of surrender"...which is cool....just behave yourself and don't wish storms into so. fla. and you will be fine.
Yeah mate, he's JFV, I can tell by the picture.

I'm not saying that that's a bad thing or anything... just pointing out what should be obvious. >_>
which brings up...how is your baby and girlfriend doing?
Well, on to weather

The NW Caribbean remains hot and VERY dry. No rain for months and dust everywhere.

Only the odd sprinkle here and there that evaporates before it hits the ground.

I have noticed that the SST values have been rising and the TCHP readings are starting to show " light blue " around Jamaica, the Cayman islands and the S coast of Cuba.

Looks as if the warm up has begun in earnest
Quoting KoritheMan:
Yeah mate, he's JFV, I can tell by the picture.

I'm not saying that that's a bad thing or anything... just pointing out what should be obvious. >_>


Nothing is obvious when you've had a few drinks.
Might I ask, why the concern?

latest sst
Quoting Ossqss:
Might I ask, why the concern?


?
that's cool...you know you caused a lot of hoopla last season...hopefully this season you will be of more reason and respectful of others. That is all we ask.
Quoting hahaguy:


?


The person that has been in question relating to identity? has waved the white flag and is being considered for an ignore list by some, concern -------- What's up, or is it irrelevant?
Quoting Drakoen:
It's interesting to me how the anxiousness this year is nowhere near as high as last year. By this time last year, Jeff Masters had already given his outlook on the upcoming season and we were talking about SSTs, shear, ITCZ, waves, etc.
Some of it is experience. Some of it is nervous bloggers not yet in the blog. I think also the la nina winter has drawn attention away from the tropics.
Quoting Ossqss:


The person that has been in question relating to identity? has waved the white flag and is being considered for an ignore list by some, concern -------- What's up, or is it irrelevant?


I don't know, I was just confused LOL.
565. PresidentialElection 1:31 AM GMT on April 20, 2009

Not a lot up right now. This is the quiet pre season period.

For myself, I am waiting to see whether two things happen. The first is how quickly the SST rises in the MDR and the Caribbean between now and late June.

The second is whether we have neutral or weak El Nino conditions for peak season.

Those two, IMO, will largely determine what kind of year we get this year
Ossqss

I hope the weather gods are better to you... then your prediction of a sweep :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Some of it is experience. Some of it is nervous bloggers not yet in the blog. I think also the la nina winter has drawn attention away from the tropics.


Looks like they are making a return.
PresElect, perhaps you could let us know that is up with the apprehension on the blog with respect to your appearance and your obvious appology, I have no clue. Perhaps it may help clear your air?
This year might end up being the year of shear, after looking over somethings.
574 I expected you to bust my Cunucks :-]LoL
Drak

The shear you refer to, would that be from a weak El Nino or something else ?
Link just click enter site its ok model run for tropical atlantic
Quoting Ossqss:
574 I expected you to bust my Cunucks :-]LoL


3 & 0 here :)
566. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:32 PM EDT on April 19, 2009

That seems much bluer than has been the norm over the last 5 years. By mid April things have usually started to go to the pale yellow in certain parts of the CAR. . . Doesn't mean temps won't be normal by the time we get to the start of the season, though.

Hey, kman. How's the weather??? It's been relatively dry here, but with some annoying little cold fronts running through just when u think it's warmed up for good. . .
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link



What do you see KOG, I see a little blog going to Greenwood.. but not much else?
Quoting Drakoen:
This year might end up being the year of shear, after looking over somethings.


Jeff Masters called in August 05 I think that it was the year of Shear.
Shears about average right now though.
Quoting kmanislander:
Drak

The shear you refer to, would that be from a weak El Nino or something else ?


Shear has been anomalously higher in the MDR region.
Link
Link
Quoting PresidentialElection:


Drak, are you gonna put out a seasonal cane season outlook this year?


No.
Hi Baha

Like a desert here. Lots of cold fronts for the " winter season " but very little to no rain with them. Strong NE winds palying havoc on the golf course since last November LOL
Wind shear is expected to be at levels of neutral ENSO years.
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Baha

Like a desert here. Lots of cold fronts for the " winter season " but very little to no rain with them. Strong NE winds palying havoc on the golf course since last November LOL
Sounds familiar lol. We get just enough rain most times to put little spots in the dust on the cars. . . Dunno if anybody's done a correlative study between dry springs and busy hurricane seasons . . .
Quoting Weather456:
Wind shear is expected to be at levels of neutral ENSO years.


Based on what?

Quoting Orcasystems:



What do you see KOG, I see a little blog going to Greenwood.. but not much else?
so you can put the link in your favs
456, I never thought of wind shear as being particularly high in neutral years. Does that mean shear is less likely to impact the genesis and strengthening of storms?
Also, a negative NAO should mean more U.S. hits in that period, albeit only 2 months of the season.

But this is the part of the season to expect the largest number of named storms to form.
Mr. StormW, what is your take on the rain this year in the Sahara and the seasonal dust in the Atlantic?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sounds familiar lol. We get just enough rain most times to put little spots in the dust on the cars. . . Dunno if anybody's done a correlative study between dry springs and busy hurricane seasons . . .


Interestingly, I have seen some correlation between "winters" in the NW Caribbean that had several cold fronts and active hurricane seasons that followed.

I used to think that if we had few cold fronts with SST that stayed relatively high over the December to April period we would see a corresponding ramp up in tropical storms but that linkage never materialised as far as I can recall.

I am starting to believe that climatology is shifting from prior periods due to several evolving factors such as ice melt

We have seen times when the tropics have transitioned from little activity to being exceptionally active, as was the case in 2004 for an 8 week period.


Quoting BahaHurican:
456, I never thought of wind shear as being particularly high in neutral years. Does that mean shear is less likely to impact the genesis and strengthening of storms?


Vertical wind shear is actually expected to be a plus factor this year as in 2008. 2009 is proving to be a difficult year to forecast since models are conflicting. 80% of models forecasting neutral ENSO and of those some are predicting above normal wind shear which is unsual. But after picking the sense out of the nonsense, vertical wind shear is expected to be a plus factor this year as in all neutral episode years. SSTs are another plus factor this year since we did not have the cooling we had last winter when compared to the winter of 2007-2008. Keep in mind, there are other inhibiting factors, such as below normal Sahel rainfall, an expected neutral-positive NAO, and above normal MSLP.

These are some notes are compiling to include in my forecast this year.
Shucks, gotta go. This is actually a sane discussion tonight w/ people whose weather opinions I respect LOL.

But I have a VERY early start tomorrow (5. a.m.), so I'm off for the night. Maybe I can pick up reading at an off moment during the day tomorrow. . . .

G'nite!
Hi Storm

Good to see you again.

It has been anomolously cool in the NW Caribbean from Nov to the end of March. Hot dry conditions prevail now but the heat is about a month late.
The Glosea is also showing below average rainfall and a less active ITCZ. The ITF is lacking poleward momentum in its western portion.
The dust always seems to fall off come prime time in the tropics. Perhaps this due to the waves dumping copious amounts of rain inland Africa and keeping the dust down
Quoting StormW:


Draks post shows it all. Looking at the deterministic forecast from the ECMWF site, rainfall is expected to be below average, which in turn, the Sahel region should be drier. The strength of the A/B High will be a key factor in just how much dust is thrown into the Atlantic. As per my post, if the model information is correct and holds ttrue, I would look for dust to ease up come August and September.


Thank you, let's hope for a late Sept. easing.
BTW, live next to one of your compatriots, Capt RCB recently retired Coasty, Tampa. I thank you all for what you all have done for all of us. Be well early one for me too. Cheers !
is one geting this???



to help portect your security internet Exlorer has blocked this web site from diplaying with content with security certificate errors click here for options
Quoting StormW:


Draks post shows it all. Looking at the deterministic forecast from the ECMWF site, rainfall is expected to be below average, which in turn, the Sahel region should be drier. The strength of the A/B High will be a key factor in just how much dust is thrown into the Atlantic. As per my post, if the model information is correct and holds ttrue, I would look for dust to ease up come August and September.


Did you take a look at the EUROSIP?
Quoting Tazmanian:
is one geting this???



to help portect your security internet Exlorer has blocked this web site from diplaying with content with security certificate errors click here for options
if thats my link its ok taz just continue to the site its just an expired certificate save link as its model runs for atlantic
Quoting StormW:


No...do you have a link?

Link
The EUROSIP is a multimodel system and is the combination of the CFS, Glosea, and the Arpege.
little cayman got the worse jfv kman fair ok
Quoting PresidentialElection:


Kman, how has your island nation recuperated since Hurricane Paloma's direct blow to the islands last fall?


Paloma struck Cayman Brac and Little Cayman, not the big island of Grand Cayman. Little Cayman recovered quite quickly. Cayman Brac still has some rebuilding to do but is largely restored
Well I have to call it a night for this evening but it was a pleasure chatting with you all.

Will check in again soon
good night my friend later
624. DDR
Well done jfv,you were actually number 4 on my ignore list.
Quoting StormW:


That's the model I use. They must have just recently chnaged the name and nature of the system.


No. There is one for the ECMWF and one for the EUROSIP.
ECMWF
EUROSIP
Taz, go to tools, interntet options, security. Move your setting down to medium-high. Do the same with privacy.
Quoting TwoEyedJack2004:
Taz, go to tools, interntet options, security. Move your setting down to medium-high. Do the same with privacy.


OK, I just think the next request should be,

And email me your PIN number -- Sorry, just looked kinda funny to me. No offense for sure, but, Huh? Taz, check the disclaimer first. :)

how cool - everyone is here - sooooo...any thoughts on this season without havin to put money down?
Quoting melwerle:
how cool - everyone is here - sooooo...any thoughts on this season without havin to put money down?


We are going to have storms .LOL j/k. I would say slightly above average but we will have to wait and see.
Quoting hahaguy:


We are going to have storms .LOL j/k. I would say slightly above average but we will have to wait and see.


Thank you, Captain Obvious (kidding)

Good to meet you btw...
My play money is on a lower/slower season.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
DARKNESS WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1040 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* DARKNESS WARNING FOR...
ALL OF THE USA...THIS DARKNESS IN MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD FROM THE EAST

DARKNESS CAN CAUSE YOU TO BUMP INTO THING SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS.

&&
Quoting melwerle:


Thank you, Captain Obvious (kidding)

Good to meet you btw...


Good to meet you as well.
Quoting auburn:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
DARKNESS WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1040 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* DARKNESS WARNING FOR...
ALL OF THE USA...THIS DARKNESS IN MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD FROM THE EAST

DARKNESS CAN CAUSE YOU TO BUMP INTO THING SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS.

&&


You made it into one of my Image posts today
Someone called out picks in a previous blog and hopefully log the items.

I picked
13 storms
9 hurs
4 big boyz 2 at the same time, yeah, thats what I said or typed or texted or blogged

2 cat 5 one fish and one Yucatan

That is if memory serves me, which is questionable at best. LoL
Quoting Ossqss:
Someone called out picks in a previous blog and hopefully log the items.

I picked
13 storms
9 hurs
4 big boyz 2 at the same time, yeah, thats what I said or typed or texted or blogged

2 cat 5 one fish and one Yucatan

That is if memory serves me, which is questionable at best. LoL


Wanna put some money on that lol.
Quoting Ossqss:
Someone called out picks in a previous blog and hopefully log the items.

I picked
13 storms
9 hurs
4 big boyz 2 at the same time, yeah, thats what I said or typed or texted or blogged

2 cat 5 one fish and one Yucatan

That is if memory serves me, which is questionable at best. LoL


Cat 2, NY State
Quoting Ossqss:
Someone called out picks in a previous blog and hopefully log the items.

I picked
13 storms
9 hurs
4 big boyz 2 at the same time, yeah, thats what I said or typed or texted or blogged

2 cat 5 one fish and one Yucatan

That is if memory serves me, which is questionable at best. LoL


YOu could have at least told us dates and times up to the 1/10 of a Second also....Come on now...Lets get a little more specific please!
Quoting hahaguy:


Wanna put some money on that lol.


The proper term is Credits, learned from fantasy football. I am game.
What is your take and hopefully the Cyber person is still logging.

Show me the credits!

Just doesn't sound the same does it?

Do you accept Visa or paypal , not :)
Quoting TampaSpin:


YOu could have at least told us dates and times up to the 1/10 of a Second also....Come on now...Lets get a little more specific please!


ROFLMAO, maybe your spreadsheet can tell you?
Quoting Orcasystems:


You made it into one of my Image posts today


Cool I am privileged...and probably banned from this blog...LOL...I am gone now!!!
Quoting Ossqss:


The proper term is Credits, learned from fantasy football. I am game.
What is your take and hopefully the Cyber person is still logging.

Show me the credits!

Just doesn't sound the same does it?

Do you accept Visa or paypal , not :)


My take is 14 named, 8 canes and 3 major. Sorry i only accept cash LOL.
Global warming is getting greater

Our planet is changing

What will happen in 50 years?

Will we still be here. Or will the miricle of life slowly go away. 1 by 1?

Earth's climate is getting more extreme and we just have to endore it for the sake of humanity, and our species.
Looking at the EUROSIP, would anyone like to hazzard a guess as to which model shows the highest SST for the out months?

Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, maybe your spreadsheet can tell you?


Wait a minute, let me recalculate using a proven method.

Avalanches caught flowing on Mars

* 14:57 04 March 2008 by Ker Than


A Mars-orbiting spacecraft has captured the first images of avalanches happening on the Red Planet. A camera called the High Resolution Imaging Experiment (HiRISE) on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) captured the events occurring near the Red Planet's north pole on 19 February.

Most images taken of Mars show enduring landscapes that have changed little in millions of years. Avalanches can now be added to the short list of natural processes that have been caught shaping the Martian landscape. Others include global dust stormsMovie Camera, dust devils, and the formation of new gulleys.




649. Ossqss 11:16 PM EDT on April 19, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, maybe your spreadsheet can tell you?


Wait a minute, let me recalculate using a proven method.


Always nice to see you 2 have fun at my expense.....LOL
Quoting Ossqss:


Wait a minute, let me recalculate using a proven method.



You have that bookmarked, don't you
I really think that TampaSpin could set up a, pick your Canes for Charity pool 2009. Works for me, Tampa, can you make this occur?

All proceeds, except some, go to the voted on Hurricane relief effort. Hummm, could work and make the season a bit more interesting for all participants. Just my take. Any takers? or thoughts...... L8R

Quoting TampaSpin:
649. Ossqss 11:16 PM EDT on April 19, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, maybe your spreadsheet can tell you?


Wait a minute, let me recalculate using a proven method.


Always nice to see you 2 have fun at my expense.....LOL


I would say that 640 deserved a reply
New lighting is working in the Critter Pond
eddye's prediction: 29 dep 25 ts 12 hurs 3 majors and 17 of them hit Miami and cancel 5 months of school while there is minimal death at the same time.
I will leave you with this. It has been a very unusual weather season in all respects. Our Sun is no exception.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2009 total: 96 days (88%)
Since 2004: 607 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
I had to click refresh before shutdown Patrap, ARgh. again. Thanks for leaving the Gravularity out of it. :)
i got 100 cows staning by for monday if they dont do the IKE storm
I think Gustav, Hanna, and Ike will be retired today (it's Monday where I live), with Fay a possible candidate.
hi PE good night PE
Quoting auburn:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
DARKNESS WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1040 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* DARKNESS WARNING FOR...
ALL OF THE USA...THIS DARKNESS IN MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD FROM THE EAST

DARKNESS CAN CAUSE YOU TO BUMP INTO THING SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS.

&&
This really cracked me up. . . lol

Aren't we going to get a sunrise warning also??? lol
Quoting KoritheMan:
I think Gustav, Hanna, and Ike will be retired today (it's Monday where I live), with Fay a possible candidate.
Good chance on Gustav and Ike. I'm not so sure about Hanna, despite the impacts to Haiti (which IMO were as much a result of the previous two systems as anything else). Only other possibility is Paloma, but unless the Caymans request I don't see it going.
Surfmom: I read the story about the horses that died in West Palm. So sad. Any of them yours?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good chance on Gustav and Ike. I'm not so sure about Hanna, despite the impacts to Haiti (which IMO were as much a result of the previous two systems as anything else). Only other possibility is Paloma, but unless the Caymans request I don't see it going.


While it's true that Haiti residents frequently get killed from even a tropical disturbance, it's equally true that a majority of the disasters there don't kill over 500 people like Hanna did. That, to me, automatically merits its retirement, even if Haiti is heavily deforested and vulnerable to flash flooding.

Paloma? Eh...I wouldn't bet on it, for the simple fact that damage in the Caymans was minimal [read: compared to what it could've been], and though the impact in Cuba was severe in some areas, it degenerated much too quickly after its Cuban landfall to cause any extensive damage over a prolonged period.
Quoting KoritheMan:


While it's true that Haiti residents frequently get killed from even a tropical disturbance, it's equally true that a majority of the disasters there don't kill over 500 people like Hanna did. That, to me, automatically merits its retirement, even if Haiti is heavily deforested and vulnerable to flash flooding.

Paloma? Eh...I wouldn't bet on it, for the simple fact that damage in the Caymans was minimal [read: compared to what it could've been], and though the impact in Cuba was severe in some areas, it degenerated much too quickly after its Cuban landfall to cause any extensive damage over a prolonged period.
Well, did they retire Noel? [can't remember] I doubt Paloma for the reasons u mentioned. Despite the high level of activity (and considering how many times Haiti got hit), I really think last season could have been much worse.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, did they retire Noel? [can't remember] I doubt Paloma for the reasons u mentioned. Despite the high level of activity (and considering how many times Haiti got hit), I really think last season could have been much worse.


Yeah, they did.

Gustav and Ike are near certs, Hanna is a possible third. Think that'll be it. Though, Dolly's more likely to be retired than Fay considering the damage it caused.
Yeah, they retired Noel. Replaced him with Nestor.

The season could've been worse, true, particularly if Gustav and Ike didn't weaken prior to U.S. landfall.

Both hurricanes were actually getting better organized before landfall, as evidenced by radar and satellite imagery.

We're lucky that they moved inland when they did -- and they were still very destructive, despite both being only of Category 2 intensity.

Let's hope we luck out again this year.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, did they retire Noel? [can't remember] I doubt Paloma for the reasons u mentioned. Despite the high level of activity (and considering how many times Haiti got hit), I really think last season could have been much worse.
Hey, they did! OK, so, I'll go along with your prediction on Hanna, which was much worse for Haiti than Noel was.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Let's hope we luck out again this year.
The Bahamas really lucked out last year. Take a look at last year's storm map, and u will see little "hole" in the storm tracks, right over the Bahamas. The two storms that directly impacted us last year avoided more populated areas, and, when one considers that only one major island was affected by Ike's cat 4 winds, it's practically miraculous.



I'm not sure what to expect this season, but neutral years tend to be more dangerous for us track-wise.
is joking here..

no names will be retired because they are no match to the strength of Jangmi, which didn't get retired by the typhoon committee.

Don't think we'll know which storm gets retired until the beginning of the hurricane season.
Morning,
Ike and Hanna will definitely be retired from the list. Ike is the 3rd costliest hurricane in US history behind Katrina and Andrew and Hanna killed hundreds of people in Hispaniola. Storms are retired based on their destruction to life and property rather than their intensity. Tropical Storm Allison (2001) retired but not Hurricane Emily (2005). Gustav is the other candidate and its highly unlikely Paloma and Omar will be retired.
Quoting Weather456:
Morning,
Ike and Hanna will definitely be retired from the list. Ike is the 3rd costliest hurricane in US history behind Katrina and Andrew and Hanna killed hundreds of people in Hispaniola. Storms are retired based on their destruction to life and property rather than their intensity. Tropical Storm Allison (2001) retired but not Hurricane Emily (2005). Gustav is the other candidate and its highly unlikely Paloma and Omar will be retired.


Gustav shouldn't even be the other candidate, Gustav will be retired. Dolly and Hanna are the other two candidates to be retired.
They didn't retire Hurricane Gordan in 1994 that hit Haiti and killed over a thousand.
675. Are you sure they will retire Hanna when Gorden in 1994 hit it causing over 1000 deaths. The NHC did not retire it blaming Hati's lack of preparation.
680. IKE
Looks like summer is approaching according to the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Less than 6 weeks and the tropical season starts.
681. IKE
I see StormW and a lot of the regulars were on here last night.

41 days..
17 hours...
46 minutes and it starts...
morning

Surfmom I am thinking of you this morning after hearing of the sudden deaths of the Polo Ponies yesterday. Hope non of the horses you care for were affected by what ever went wrong.
We went to the Premire of "The Messenger" last night. A film about one year with several interesting characters on Bolivar Peninsula, Ike was an unlooked for happening that became a poignant part of the film. Great before and after shots of peoples lives and property. Worth seeing if you get the opportunity.
hi .i get confused with la nina with that other phase where caligets the pinapple connetion that what i call call it we get ton of rain snow level r very high .steve
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
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Current Home weather station data.

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
area 94w 22n showing cyclonic turning in the mid and upper levels. no surface reflection there at the moment is it the area that the gfs is hinting at sub tropical development?
SWFL:after a muggy morning,showers and t-storms are now formimg about 50 miles offshore,moving east,arrival along the coast should be between 1-4pm.....conditions will include heavy rain,up to 1 inches,lightning, gusty winds over 40mph,small hail and the possiblity of waterspouts.......
huge explosion of storms at the tail end of the front ocer the BOC!!!
TS: do you have this mornings sounding from ruskin????,interested to see whats going on in our mid-levels....before the arrival of this pre-frontal trough....