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La Niña by July?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2010

El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.


Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.


Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. xcool
I Can't Wait for ecmwf models ...
Quoting SevereHurricane:


He's back...lol

I guess I'm not the only one that sees it. That means I'm not crazy.
You are defanately not crazy you can tell by the posts its so obvious.
me neither.
Quoting xcool:
I Can't Wait for ecmwf models ...
I agree but even if the ecm shows development in the atlantic ill still be skepticall about it but will still keep an eye on it.
me 2 scott
3006. xcool
need to hurry upp
3007. xcool
i work on my car allday 10am to7pm
i wont, the ecm is imepccabel when it coems to development in the tropics, anything it shows, i'll believe. its a god, even levi says so.
3009. xcool



nice big mamm wave
Quoting xcool:
i work on my car allday 10am to7pm
Dang thats a long time something wrong with it
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


I can't prove it but from my experience with photography I think it is some sort of refraction of the light from a RoV off to the side of one we're viewing. Something similar to a rainbow or lens flair.


Looking at it again on the link someone posted earlier, it appears to be a yellow part of the cap. Also visible from Skandi ROV 1 cam.

Link someone posted earlier is below (sorry, can't remember who). Using Chrome for my browser this evening, have no link or image buttons.

http://mfile.akamai.com/97892/live/reflector:45685.asx?bkup=49182
Quoting ElConando:


Ignore him.


Way ahead of you lol
Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
i wont, the ecm is imepccabel when it coems to development in the tropics, anything it shows, i'll believe. its a god, even levi says so.
No model is a god the ecm can get things wrong as well like 90L this year So look at the model but dont follow it verbatim.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Way ahead of you lol


LOL!
Watch in full screen mode.

If I can see part of the cap, that means flow has reduced a little, right?
3017. xcool
I THINK GFS DO BETTER JOB SO FOR IMO
3018. Levi32
Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
i wont, the ecm is imepccabel when it coems to development in the tropics, anything it shows, i'll believe. its a god, even levi says so.


It's not a god. It was wrong on 90L.
3019. xcool
alex yeah..car thermostat make overheating
Quoting Levi32:


It's not a god. It was wrong on 90L.
You are right thats what i told him its a good model but it could get things wrong as well its not perfect.
3022. Levi32
omg, levi, i titally forgot about that, lol, my bad. how was tennis, by the way?

'Twas fun.
Quoting xcool:
alex yeah..car thermostat make overheating
Oh man tough break man did you get it fixed
3024. xcool
alex Repair EstimateTM 111$ i said fbeepbbeep that 'i do'-it myself mmm
Quoting xcool:
alex Repair EstimateTM 111$ i said fbeepbbeep that 'i do'-it myself mmm
Jesus thats a lot of money i would probably do the same thing as well lol
Quoting Levi32:


It's not a god. It was wrong on 90L.

yup
3027. xcool


3028. xcool
alex.i have son .too much money.
ever been to miami, levi? you should come down here.
3030. xcool
my girl friend from fL HAHA
3031. Levi32
Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
ever been to miami, levi? you should come down here.


Lol. Been out of Alaska once....to rural Ohio in the middle of winter. Pretty much no different than here. I was in a town of 10000 the whole time in 30-degree weather.
Quoting xcool:
my girl friend from fL HAHA
Sweet! hows the weather in slidell?
3033. xcool
Levi32 wt--- Been out of Alaska once wt[[[[[[
Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
ever been to miami, levi? you should come down here.


Hows the weather in Miami, JFV? Heading down there Saturday to visit family.
Goodnight!
3036. xcool
alex //////// hothot and beautiful in slidell la
Quoting Levi32:


Lol. Been out of Alaska once....to rural Ohio in the middle of winter. Pretty much no different than here. I was in a town of 10000 the whole time in 30-degree weather.


then my friend, you need to come down and experienec what you love the best, ehad on, what do you say, i'd be quite the experience. instead of studying it, from hundreds upon hundreds of miles away.
Quoting xcool:
alex //////// hothot and beautiful in slidell la
Awesome thats the kind of weather i like to hear.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Hows the weather in Miami, JFV? Heading down there Saturday to visit family.


Might want to brace for the impact of a Category 5.
3040. xcool
slidell la have no Murder,ilove it here.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Might want to brace for the impact of a Category 5.
LOL! hey korithman hows it going this early thursday morning
Quoting xcool:
slidell la have no Murder,ilove it here.


I was in Slidell before Katrina......Nyphew got married at the big Church in the middle of town......very nice peaceful place!
I should you should have good weather, SevereHurricane. As longa s you do not mind the severe heat and humidity, and occasional rainy season rainfall
Quoting KoritheMan:


Might want to brace for the impact of a Category 5.

lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


Might want to brace for the impact of a Category 5.


Guess I better bring my handy shower curtains to protect me.
Quoting xcool:
slidell la have no Murder,ilove it here.

you're not far away from me here in mobile :)
3048. xcool
TampaSpin .yeah :)
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
LOL! hey korithman hows it going this early thursday morning


Pretty good I guess. Very very bored, though. :/
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Guess I better bring my handy shower curtains to protect me.
LMAO! you guys are too much tonight thanks for the comic humor.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Guess I better bring my handy shower curtains to protect me.


Better get on that!
2879 Orcasystems: "BP Again Changes Oil Containment Timeline ... BP has changed its tune once again on the precise timing of when it believes it will be able to contain the oil gushing from its blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico.
BP said on Wednesday it is dialing back a prediction by its chief operating officer that the leaking oil would be reduced to a "relative trickle" by next week. It now says it will take more time to reach that point
....."

Looks like I wrote a relevant commentary ahead of time (and didn't bother to post earlier cuz the conversation had drifted far away by the time I finished)

2112 aspectre "BP...captured about 15,000 barrels...of oil Tuesday...close to...its processing limit...
...the shuttle tanker in the Gulf of Mexico...can process about 15,000 barrels of oil per day.
BP...to bring in new ships and equipment to bring that capacity up to 28,000 barrels...per day."
2114 Chicklet "so how many millions of gallons per day has it been leaking?"

I think anybody who has been following what I've written on the topic will agree that I've been consistently conservative -- using official figures, giving the benefit of the doubt to those in charge of capping&cleanup, etc -- while expressing my doubts only subtly, ala posting the Ixtoc spill-rate along with the various official rates. I will continue to be conservative in my writings.
So first, a bit more from the same article.
Asked...whether the recovery effort...was collecting more oil than was leaking, [CoastGuard Admiral] Allen said "I certainly hope so" but added "I'm not going to declare victory on anything until we have absolute numbers [for the oil flow rate]."
Well, the article tells me several things have a HIGH probability of being true:

1) The spill rate was appreciably over 16,666barrels per day after the BlowOutPreventer's pipe was cut.
BritishPetroleum's ChiefExecutiveOfficer had set a capture goal of 90%. 15,000barrels is 90% of 16,666barrels.
Ordering in new equipment to handle more than 15,000barrels per day shows that BP accepts that the flow rate is appreciably more than 16,666barrels per day. ie The absolute minimum amount still spilling into the Gulf is appreciably more than 1666barrels per day.

2) The spill rate had been appreciably more than 13,888barrels per day before recovery began. Cutting the pipe near the BoP increased the flow rate by 20% or 1/5th. So the new flow rate became 6/5ths times the old flow rate. Conversely, the old flow rate is 5/6ths of the new flow rate.
The new flow rate is appreciably more than than 16,666 barrels per day,
so the old flow rate had been appreciably more than 5/6ths of 16,666barrels per day.

3) Assuming that BP is "coming loaded for bear" after having had to admit that the on-site containment&recovery ship is too small and being forced to hire a new one with larger recovery capacity, my (deliberately conservative) new estimates are:
The probable minimum presentday flow rate is between 18,666to21,500barrels per day.
Before the riser was cut, the probable minimum spill rate had been between 15,555to17,966barrels per day.
The flow rate minus what is being captured, ie the probable minimum presentday spill rate is between 3,666to6,500barrels per day.
Those are the minimums because I can't be sure that BP had intended to be "coming loaded for bear" when they hired the new 28,000barrels per day containment&recovery ship.

4) USGS admin obviously also lowballed their official estimate by averaging the surface survey team's 12,000to19,000barrels per day with the plume velocity team's 12,000to25,000barrels per day into just the lowest estimate... which is why I had earlier chosen to post both survey results rather than endorse the obviously wrong official "average".
ie Like the Bureau of Land Management and the Bureau of Minerals Management, USGS is apparently being run by "revolving*door" career bureaucrats who put serving business interests FAR above serving the public.

* "revolving door" refers to shifting between private sector jobs in an industry to public sector jobs overseeing that industy, and vice versa. Repeat as often as necessary to bump up ones pay.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Better get on that!


I was in Bed Bath and Beyond today and I saw one that I really liked. It had all kinds of Sea Creatures all over it. The tag said it built to handle 175mph winds.
3054. xcool
SouthALWX nope 3hr way.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I was in Bed Bath and Beyond today and I saw one that I really liked. It had all kinds of Sea Creatures all over it. The tag said it built to handle 175mph winds.


lmao
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I was in Bed Bath and Beyond today and I saw one that I really liked. It had all kinds of Sea Creatures all over it. The tag said it built to handle 175mph winds.


Oh God lol. No wonder I enjoy this blog, you guys are great.
there is some freaking noise outside my uncles house its really strange
Quoting btwntx08:
there is some freaking noise outside my uncles house its really strange
whats it sound like?
Quoting xcool:
SouthALWX nope 3hr way.

no it's not .... Its around 2 hours.
3060. xcool
btwntx08 run run
3061. xcool
SouthALWX opps i mean 2 hr
Quoting xcool:
SouthALWX opps i mean 2 hr

Lol thats pretty darn close.
3063. xcool
SouthALWX lmao
I wish DestinJeff was up. lol
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
whats it sound like?

maybe some bug or bird or something lol it makes noise every few minutes
Quoting btwntx08:
there is some freaking noise outside my uncles house its really strange


Bigfoot, obviously.
3067. xcool
oooh noo bigfoot run
Quoting KoritheMan:


Bigfoot, obviously.


No... Its the Honey Island Swamp Monster.
3069. xcool


oh wow.



3070. xcool
so cmc and ecmwf.cv
3071. K8eCane
K8e's Top 20 List Of Words Predicted To Be Used This Hurricane Season On This Site...

20.Bastardi
19.Shear
18.Pressure
17.Recon
16.Hebert
15.Carolinas
14.Gulf
13. Florida
12.Oilslick
11. Caster
10.Masters
9.Panic
8. JFV
7.Sorry
6.Crow
5.Recurve
4.Cat
3.Update
2. Iggy

And the Number 1 Word...
1. Poof!
Quoting btwntx08:

maybe some bug or bird or something lol it makes noise every few minutes



Screech owl most likely. Always freaks out the city slickers.
hmmm it sounds like an animal i belive after hearing it numerous times
Quoting K8eCane:
K8e's Top 20 List Of Words Predicted To Be Used This Hurricane Season On This Site...

20.Bastardi
19.Shear
18.Pressure
17.Recon
16.Hebert
15.Carolinas
14.Gulf
13. Florida
12.Oilslick
11. Caster
10.Masters
9.Panic
8. JFV
7.Sorry
6.Crow
5.Recurve
4.Cat
3.Update
2. Iggy

And the Number 1 Word...
1. Poof!


I would add a 3 word phrase also......"LISTEN HEAR BIT_H!"
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:



Screech owl most likely. Always freaks out the city slickers.

i believe ur right cause i never heard it in the daylight until this past couple of hrs
Quoting btwntx08:
hmmm it sounds like an animal i belive after hearing it numerous times
\

Check this out. Link
Quoting xcool:


oh wow.



Well we all know what the cmc is known for but if the ecm shows it too i will be a little interested but im still skepticall about a storm originating out there in the atlantic in june.
3078. xcool
:)
i will be the first to admit that i have become pretty "crazy" about the oil spill. i notice that i get flipped out about it very easily. i don't mean to. today i saw the webcam and it didn't look right. i had glowing orange in the middle and red streaks at the bottom. i have now convinced myself that the red streaks were a ribbon but the orange glowing in the middle of the plume i can't figure out and it's driving me crazy. i found this on youtube it's from last saturday and it's not as crazy looking as what i saw today around 5pm.

can someone tell me what the orange is?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nb2ifKX9oM&feature=related
everybody sleeping?
3081. xcool
6min to ecmwf
Quoting WaterWitch11:
everybody sleeping?
Nope im here
im still ehre, my friends.
3084. xcool
meto
Quoting WaterWitch11:
i will be the first to admit that i have become pretty "crazy" about the oil spill. i notice that i get flipped out about it very easily. i don't mean to. today i saw the webcam and it didn't look right. i had glowing orange in the middle and red streaks at the bottom. i have now convinced myself that the red streaks were a ribbon but the orange glowing in the middle of the plume i can't figure out and it's driving me crazy. i found this on youtube it's from last saturday and it's not as crazy looking as what i saw today around 5pm.

can someone tell me what the orange is?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nb2ifKX9oM&feature=related


Have you seen the latest live feed.....looks like the thing is clogged and nothing is going up the pipe now...
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Nope im here


Surprisingly, I am still awake lol. I haven't gotten good sleep lately, so chances are, I might be up until 5.
3087. Walshy
Im keeping my eyes on you all.

o.0
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
\

Check this out. Link

hmmm sounds similar though the one i hear is abit louder
tampa i can see cnn's feed and it shows it flowing. i'm limited on places i can see it. i can't view from bp site, i don't have the right apps.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
i will be the first to admit that i have become pretty "crazy" about the oil spill. i notice that i get flipped out about it very easily. i don't mean to. today i saw the webcam and it didn't look right. i had glowing orange in the middle and red streaks at the bottom. i have now convinced myself that the red streaks were a ribbon but the orange glowing in the middle of the plume i can't figure out and it's driving me crazy. i found this on youtube it's from last saturday and it's not as crazy looking as what i saw today around 5pm.

can someone tell me what the orange is?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nb2ifKX9oM&feature=related


According to another site dedicated to this the top of the cap is yellow and I think it appears red when a certain density of the blow out passes in front of it. As they explained it similar effect to an electric fire log.
Quoting caneswatch:


Surprisingly, I am still awake lol. I haven't gotten good sleep lately, so chances are, I might be up until 5.
Well you ae out of school so you can go to bed whenever.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
tampa i can see cnn's feed and it shows it flowing. i'm limited on places i can see it. i can't view from bp site, i don't have the right apps.


Go to my blog and follow the links!
Quoting K8eCane:
K8e's Top 20 List Of Words Predicted To Be Used This Hurricane Season On This Site...

20.Bastardi
19.Shear
18.Pressure
17.Recon
16.Hebert
15.Carolinas
14.Gulf
13. Florida
12.Oilslick
11. Caster
10.Masters
9.Panic
8. JFV
7.Sorry
6.Crow
5.Recurve
4.Cat
3.Update
2. Iggy

And the Number 1 Word...
1. Poof!

Oh Don't forget Alex!
3094. xcool
Link



192hr cv storm ecmwf new

hmmm
Quoting xcool:
Link



192hr cv storm ecmwf new

hmmm


that is last nights run except for the 1st 48 hours
Quoting xcool:
Link



192hr cv storm ecmwf new

hmmm
Well its long range so take it with a grain of salt.
3097. xcool
alex lmao..
3098. xcool
hurricanes101 how ??? help me out..
3099. xcool


"grain of salt" - I like that! :) Lolz
Quoting xcool:
hurricanes101 how ??? help me out..


at 0 hours is says Thursday, which is the start of this mornings run

but as you go forward you will see

24 hours says Friday - that is this mornings run
48 hours says Saturday - that is this mornings run

but at 72 hours it also says Saturday, which makes it from yesterdays run
Quoting btwntx08:

hmmm sounds similar though its abit louder


They do in the wild. Google some audio. If not that then try Hoot Owl. Some reason or another they don't freak people out as much, maybe because they sound more like what one would expect an owl to sound like. Bunch of other owls out there but they don't usually call as frequently as what you are describing.

3103. xcool
my favorite word take it with a grain of salt.
3104. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


at 0 hours is says Thursday, which is the start of this mornings run

but as you go forward you will see

24 hours says Friday - that is this mornings run
48 hours says Saturday - that is this mornings run

but at 72 hours it also says Saturday, which makes it from yesterdays run


yeah, we got two 12's XD
its still running.
I really hope to see a clear CATL on this one ^^
Someone tell the waves its too early for them :P
3105. xcool
Hurricanes101 oh damm .i fix fix
Is this what you guys are talking about??

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/10061000/91.html

Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:00 PM HST June 9 2010
====================================

A weak surface trough located about 1175 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is moving westward at almost 20 mph. Disorganized thunderstorms associated with this trough has become less active since yesterday. Strong upper level winds in the vicinity of the system are not conducive for any significant development.
3108. JLPR2
Quoting K8eCane:
K8e's Top 20 List Of Words Predicted To Be Used This Hurricane Season On This Site...

20.Bastardi
19.Shear
18.Pressure
17.Recon
16.Hebert
15.Carolinas
14.Gulf
13. Florida
12.Oilslick
11. Caster
10.Masters
9.Panic
8. JFV
7.Sorry
6.Crow
5.Recurve
4.Cat
3.Update
2. Iggy

And the Number 1 Word...
1. Poof!


Agreed.
I think I have said Poof twice this season :0)
what's it showing, folks?
I remember when "pinhole" was a common word used here during cyclone season.
3111. xcool
Link


ONETIME..


Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
what's it showing, folks?
It was yesterdays run todays run isnt out yet its running right now.
Quoting xcool:
Link


ONETIME..




nope still not updated
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST June 10 2010
=================================

The low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighborhood persists.
3115. xcool
Hurricanes101 I GIVEUP ON http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/
i think thaht's the one is new
Isnt it too soon to have CV's in june that far out in the Atlantic. Im not saying there is one yet.Just curious.Thank you in advance.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


They do in the wild. Google some audio. If not that then try Hoot Owl. Some reason or another they don't freak people out as much, maybe because they sound more like what one would expect an owl to sound like. Bunch of other owls out there but they don't usually call as frequently as what you are describing.


alright i'll check that out thanks
3119. xcool
NEVER TOO too soon HAVE C;V STORMS
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Isnt it too soon to have CV's in june that far out in the Atlantic. Im not saying there is one yet.Just curious.Thank you in advance.
Climatologically yes it is too soon but with the right conditions and a strong tropical wave you may get something cooking
Im sorry i meant to say TC's.Im new here so please forgive me.
3122. K8eCane
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Isnt it too soon to have CV's in june that far out in the Atlantic. Im not saying there is one yet.Just curious.Thank you in advance.


Well Usually yes its too soon...but I cant shake the feeling that we will see strange stuff tis year that we just dont expect
Thank you for your response.
3124. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
Hurricanes101 I GIVEUP ON http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/


its running, the 72hr frame hasn't updated yet, waiting for it to finish running :D
It is showing it again by Sunday
3126. K8eCane
But I am definitely not a professional nor a met
Quoting JLPR2:


its running, the 72hr frame hasn't updated yet, waiting for it to finish running :D


Updated through 96 hours and the Low is there again
3128. xcool
Link

HERE FREE SITES..
3129. xcool
ECMW ACT CRAZY TOO
3130. JLPR2


Well looks promising, but lets wait till it reaches water
3131. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Updated through 96 hours and the Low is there again


yeah, had to do a little F5 XD
3132. xcool
cool water ..
To know it is updated

96 hours on this mornings run is Monday
TROPICAL UPDATE 6-10 WITH OIL GUSHER LIVE FEEDS


Go to the link with the live feed......It appears the PIPE may be clogged as the OIL is just streaming again...NO WAY ANYTHING IS BEING SUCKED UP NOW....NO WAY!
You are so right k8e this is deffinately gonna be a very unusal season this year.
Quoting JLPR2:


Well looks promising, but lets wait till it reaches water
yep thats a pretty impressive wave
3137. xcool



ecmw


here cmc




we need to watch this situation, guys?
3139. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:



ecmw


here cmc






It looks too similar :O
So we have a consensus of these two models, wont be convinced until I see more join in
Well that vigorous wave that was near the Windwards went poof. :) The 40kt westerlies shredded that one. I don't expect this season will start ramping up until sometime in mid or late July. I do think we will see a TD or TS sometime in June. Looks like Cape Verde activity will start much earlier this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent CV cane within the first week of July.
3141. K8eCane
Quoting mrsalagranny:
You are so right k8e this is deffinately gonna be a very unusal season this year.


Well you stay safe! One good thing about hurricanes is that we usually have plenty of advance warning
3142. xcool
JLPR2 .:)
I wish i could read these maps like all you guys and gals can.But I guess its best I cant.I would probably be freaking out in the heart of the season lol.
3144. xcool
GFS 000%
3145. xcool
CapeVerdeCanes yeah,we have too
barn owl most likely
granny, its easy to read them, what dont yoy udnerstand? :0. also, yes, x, its been consistent. hey JP1 and JP2, how are ya?
Quoting JLPR2:


It looks too similar :O
So we have a consensus of these two models, wont be convinced until I see more join in
ok now what it was lol i g2g now see ya later
mrsalagranny

area to look at map 10N 40W (there is an interesting low potential that may form)
3151. JLPR2
Well, I see a weak system entering the Caribbean at a low latitude, the model hasn't changed its mind apparently

3152. xcool
Quoting JLPR2:
Well, I see a weak system entering the Caribbean at a low latitude, the model hasn't changed its mind apparently

Aparently not but im still sticking to my guns here as im still not buying what the models are showing now if that tropical wave looks good when it goes into the atlantic then i might relent but for now have to go with climatology here.
3154. JLPR2
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Aparently not but im still sticking to my guns here as im still not buying what the models are showing now if that tropical wave looks good when it goes into the atlantic then i might relent but for now have to go with climatology here.


yep, if the wave survives 48hrs on water then I'll be interested and very surprised too XD
3155. xcool
ya.. Sunday when that low is suppose to form is still days away.
3157. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


impressive anticlone!
Quoting xcool:
Well that is an impressive anticyclone there
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
mrsalagranny

area to look at map 10N 40W (there is an interesting low potential that may form)
Thank you Hades i see now the area in the Carribean that JLPR2 is looking at.I guess if I sit and look closely I can figure things out.LOL!!!!It would help if I put my glasses on.
3160. xcool
bigbig anticyclone
Nevermind im not going yet.
you're welcome.
Quoting xcool:
bigbig anticyclone
yeah it is
Anybody here?
3165. xcool
yeah
G'nite, all!
Cool i guess its just us in here.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Anybody here?


Yes but i'm going to bed now. 5 am isn't possible lol
3169. xcool
yeah.guess i;m go bed
3170. xcool
bye alex .and all
Its about that time see you later today.
3172. JLPR2
ah everyone went to bed, I wasn't able to say night all! XD

Well I'm the last one here, but I'm going to sleep too :D
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Anybody here?

I'm doing a quick check. I'll do another fly by in maybe an hour.
3174. SLU
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

ONE TROPICAL CYCLONE...TROPICAL STORM AGATHA...WAS OBSERVED DURING
MAY. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE FOR MAY IS FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM
ABOUT EVERY OTHER YEAR. THE LAST TIME A NAMED STORM FORMED IN MAY
WAS IN 2008.


right on the money
3175. IKE
Ankle-deep mousse-like oil on beach at Ala.-Fla. line

From the article...""Through the weekend, significant portions of the plume will be pushed into the Panhandle,'' County Commissioner Gene Valentino said."
Good Morning

Blog Updated

Tropical Update



Quoting IKE:
Ankle-deep mousse-like oil on beach at Ala.-Fla. line

From the article...""Through the weekend, significant portions of the plume will be pushed into the Panhandle,'' County Commissioner Gene Valentino said."

Morning Ike,I thought dr masters said that the wind was out of the se and would keep the oil off the panhandle for awhile?
3179. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Morning Ike,I thought dr masters said that the wind was out of the se and would keep the oil off the panhandle for awhile?


Mobile,AL. marine....

"MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY DRIFT SOUTH TO NEAR OR OVER THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY...
RESULTING IN MORE OF A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW. BUT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PREDOMINANT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES ON GULF WATERS AND LIGHT CHOP
CONDITIONS OF BAYS AND INLAND WATERWAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK."
Quoting IKE:


Mobile,AL. marine....

"MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY DRIFT SOUTH TO NEAR OR OVER THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY...
RESULTING IN MORE OF A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW. BUT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PREDOMINANT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES ON GULF WATERS AND LIGHT CHOP
CONDITIONS OF BAYS AND INLAND WATERWAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK."

Well i hope the crap stay off of your beaches up there.
3181. IKE
It's June. Cold fronts don't come down into the GOM very often...actually rarely. It continues through July...August...early September...on average.

It's usually SE to south winds. Sometimes it's east...or SW, but it's usually an onshore flow.

The oil volcano is still gushing. More and more oil is getting into the GOM daily. Anywhere from SE Texas coast over to the big bend of Florida and points beyond, this summer and for the foreseeable future....watch out for...

oil!
10:00 UTC

3183. K8eCane
Question.. How likely is it, based on current conditions and not climatology, that a CV storm could form soon?
3184. WxLogic
Good Morning...
the strong westerly wind shear emanating from the ULL north of hipanola will preclude any form of development of the robust tropical wave which is about to exit the african coast friday. although conditions inthe EATL may allow for some organisation before it reaches the lesser antilles the chances of a depression forming is slim, The ULL must first move out of the area if this tropical wave were to develop
mornin' folks!
3187. P451
Good Morning.

72Hrs Gulf of Mexico Winds



Site: Link

Sad to see what is going on in the Gulf. Sadder to know that the worst is yet to come.

BP ought to do 2 things:

1) Lower their gas prices, by even a dollar, in the states affected.

2) Hire those who have lost their jobs due to the disaster (fisherman) to help clean up the mess, and, hire them at the wages they made in their lost jobs.


Other than that I don't know what to say.
3188. P451
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
10:00 UTC



A lot of activity yet no conducive atmosphere to make 'em pop.

Climatology plays a big role. And when Climatology catches up? We're going to see things explode. Yet, not until it does.
Quoting P451:


A lot of activity yet no conducive atmosphere to make 'em pop.

Climatology plays a big role. And when Climatology catches up? We're going to see things explode. Yet, not until it does.


Looking at various upper air graphics, looks like that switch is flipped in a couple weeks. Surely that can change but, GFS specifically has been consistent with it. Tropically I don't care for the GFS but, it seems to do rather well with the dynamics.
3190. IKE



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
0.0.0. ike
3192. scott39
Is the westerlies still so strong because of the time of the year?
3193. IKE
Accuweather take...

Jun 10, 2010 8:12 AM

A tropical wave nearing 70 west is heading west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Satellite images and surface observations show thunderstorms have decreased in coverage and intensity. A few showers associated with the wave are lingering across the Lesser Antilles. There is a weak surface low across the south central Caribbean. We continue to observe strong westerly shear over this area. The combination of this shear and location of the surface low will greatly hinder further development of this system during the next few days. However, long range computer information suggests this feature might become better organized as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua next week.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we continue to track several tropical waves. However, we see no signs of organization and development is not expected with these other tropical waves for the next few days.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel
3194. hcubed
CapeVerdeCanes=empty space - again.

Quick question about a ban. When someone is banned, I can see that all their old posts disappear also.

When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?
Hey everybody, I missed the blog for most of the day yesterday. What all did I miss? I saw that Cyclone Oz has been banned (for life?). What did he do? I always miss the fun!
3197. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
0.0.0. ike


And that looks to continue for awhile. I'd say at least 10-14 days. Maybe the last 10 days of June? Maybe?

0-0-0.
3198. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Accuweather take...

Jun 10, 2010 8:12 AM

A tropical wave nearing 70 west is heading west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Satellite images and surface observations show thunderstorms have decreased in coverage and intensity. A few showers associated with the wave are lingering across the Lesser Antilles. There is a weak surface low across the south central Caribbean. We continue to observe strong westerly shear over this area. The combination of this shear and location of the surface low will greatly hinder further development of this system during the next few days. However, long range computer information suggests this feature might become better organized as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua next week.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we continue to track several tropical waves. However, we see no signs of organization and development is not expected with these other tropical waves for the next few days.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel
Have you seen what direction it heads if it does develope?
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Updated

Tropical Update





Wow that's an impressive wave. It's more to the north than some of the others. Let's see if it can hold it's convection over the open waters.
3200. IKE
Quoting hcubed:
CapeVerdeCanes=empty space - again.

Quick question about a ban. When someone is banned, I can see that all their old posts disappear also.

When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?


Looks like admin is quick to the action, so far.
Quoting IKE:
It's June. Cold fronts don't come down into the GOM very often...actually rarely. It continues through July...August...early September...on average.

It's usually SE to south winds. Sometimes it's east...or SW, but it's usually an onshore flow.

The oil volcano is still gushing. More and more oil is getting into the GOM daily. Anywhere from SE Texas coast over to the big bend of Florida and points beyond, this summer and for the foreseeable future....watch out for...

oil!


I've seen some oil forecast that says the oil may actually end up in England of all places. Oh the irony. I wonder if BP will think it's a big deal then.
Quoting P451:
Good Morning.

72Hrs Gulf of Mexico Winds



Site: Link

Sad to see what is going on in the Gulf. Sadder to know that the worst is yet to come.

BP ought to do 2 things:

1) Lower their gas prices, by even a dollar, in the states affected.

2) Hire those who have lost their jobs due to the disaster (fisherman) to help clean up the mess, and, hire them at the wages they made in their lost jobs.


Other than that I don't know what to say.


BP can't afford to hire workers, they are too busy paying for full page ads and minute long tv commercials. I swear if I see one more of their commercials I'm going to throw something at my TV.
3204. scott39
Have we had an invest in the Atlantic since June 1st?
Quoting hcubed:
CapeVerdeCanes=empty space - again.

Quick question about a ban. When someone is banned, I can see that all their old posts disappear also.

When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?


Was that J*V?
Quoting IKE:


And that looks to continue for awhile. I'd say at least 10-14 days. Maybe the last 10 days of June? Maybe?

0-0-0.


20th at the earliest IMO. Unless something develops in one of the low pockets of shear in the SW Carib or East Coast. Shear is remarkably low across the Eastern Seaboard for a situational type development, typical of June.

3208. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Good morning, WU. Not a lot changed since yesterday...

- "Rather impressive for June" wave still in Africa

- Models still "hinting at some development" of "rather impressive for June" wave

- Climatology still does not support such development of the "rather impressive for June" wave

- Gulf of Mexico still having an "oilgasm".

That about cover everything?


You left out....

(1)It's suppose to be slow...it's June.

(2)Just wait til.....

(3)I can't believe he's already saying season is a bust!

(4)When we get to...."....", we'll have multiple systems.

(5)When will the shear let up?
We are off to a low star and will conclude with a slow finish lol. Enough said.
Quoting CaneWarning:


BP can't afford to hire workers, they are too busy paying for full page ads and minute long tv commercials. I swear if I see one more of their commercials I'm going to throw something at my TV.

No dont do that then you will have to buy a new tv at the cost of bp.
3211. aquak9
When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?

yes.

Zombie-B-Gone!! well for now...it always comes back...
excue my fast typing i make a lot of mistakes. I meant we are off to a slow start and will conclude with a slow finish lol. Enough said
Quoting DestinJeff:


I wonder if they will consider that a "legitimate" claim for damages?


They say they haven't denied a claim yet!
i see JFV is not geting it yet i dony think he nos what the word banned means


if i was the Admin i would have blck him by now too where he dos not make any more names
3215. scott39
Dont be fooled by the calm before the storms! If anybody has chronic medical problem that requires power, have a plan now.
Good morining guys well I found out that the low level steering is starting to point to a wnw to nw in the west Caribbean

0300Z



0600Z



0900Z

3217. scott39
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morining guys well I found out that the low level steering is starting to point to a wnw to nw in the west Caribbean

0300Z



0600Z



0900Z

It looks like theres some firing of convection on the west side of it.
Good morning

The action so far this season can be summed up in two words : " Climatology Rules "

No matter how hot the water and how strong the early Twaves are June is traditionally a quiet month. Use the month wisely to dust off your hurricane plan, check to see what supplies need replenishing,and get prepared.

This is not a "slow start ". It is what you would expect to see.
Quoting scott39:
It looks like theres some firing of convection on the west side of it.


on the west side of what? firing of convection where?
3222. IKE
Kman...I'd say you are correct....like watching paint dry....

Quoting aquak9:
When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?

yes.

Zombie-B-Gone!! well for now...it always comes back...
3225. Patrap


As BP promised, the walruses are fine:

Stephanie Grace



Published: Thursday, June 10, 2010, 7:30 AM

When BPGlobalPR, a popular parody of BP's official Twitter feed, asked readers last week to "cut us some slack" because "we've kinda just been winging this whole 'deepwater drilling' thing," it was, quite obviously, a joke.


Yet a new analysis of BP's emergency plans, rubberstamped by the equally asleep-at-the-wheel federal Minerals Management Service, suggests the fake company line is actually a pretty accurate summation of the real company's response to the oil well that's still gushing a mile under the Gulf of Mexico.
1
0
0Share

The Associated Press took a good close look at two disaster response plans that cover the Deepwater Horizon site, a 582-page regional spill plan and a shorter document addressing the individual site, and concluded that they were riddled with mistakes and erroneous assumptions.

Among the individual errors: Marine life specialists' phone numbers are wrong. An Internet link to a cleanup equipment supplier is broken. One national wildlife expert listed as a possible source of information actually died in 2005, four years before the document was filed.

And "sensitive biological resources" listed as in a potential spill's path include cold-climate marine mammals like walruses, sea otters, sea lions and seals, none of which inhabit the warm-water Gulf of Mexico. Kind of makes you wonder whether that passage was lifted from a document covering some place like Alaska, where all those animals actually do live.

In a broader sense, the assessments paint a rosy picture of the likely outcome of what the company describes as an unlikely spill.

BP said there would be just a 21 percent chance that oil would reach Louisiana's coast within a month; in fact the first sheen hit the state in nine days after the rig exploded. The company also said it had more than enough equipment in place to capture any oil before it would hit shore.

If the documents downplay risk to the Gulf coast, they completely ignore the threat beyond. There's no mention of the much-discussed loop current, for example, which could send oil around the Florida peninsula and up the Atlantic Coast.

The 52-page plan BP submitted early last year covering Mississippi Canyon Block 252, the location of the busted well, is particularly disheartening to read in hindsight, after seeing all those pictures of oiled birds and turtles and gunky wetlands and beaches.

Out in the Gulf, a spill might cause "some detrimental effects" on fish habitats, the report concedes, but it would likely be "sub-lethal." Both finfish and shellfish, the company pointed out, can swim away.

Potential onshore damage is described just as dismissively.

"An accidental oil spill from the proposed activities could cause impacts to beaches. However, due to the distance to shore (48 miles) and the response capabilities that would be implemented, no significant adverse impacts are expected," the report says.

"Both the historical spill data and the combined trajectory/risk calculations ... indicated there is little risk of contact or impact to the coastline and associated environmental resources."

The document goes on to use the same wording to describe potential risk to wetlands, to shore birds and coastal nesting birds, to coastal wildlife refuges, and to coastal wilderness areas.

As with the misplaced sea mammals, you've got to wonder whether the author either used boilerplate language, or just blocked and copied. It's as if the goal was just to fill in all the lines and check off all the boxes, not to position the company to deal with an actual, rather than theoretical, crisis.

After hearing about the analysis, Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat, unintentionally parroted the Twitter satirists' comic assessment.

"The AP report paints a picture of a company that was making it up as it went along, while telling regulators it had the full capability to deal with a major spill," Nelson wrote in an e-mail. "We know that wasn't true."

Yes, we do know that, now. What we don't know is whether to laugh about it, or to cry.

Stephanie Grace is a staff columnist. She can be reached at sgrace@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3383.
Nothing eminent across the tropical atl as most of the caribbean is hostile this morning. Took a pan at the new ECMWF which still carries a wave into the eastern caribbean but has a (tutt) entrenched in the vicinity producing strong westerlies. Think it will be another 3-4 weeks before we can begin to look out across the eastern tropical atl.

adrian
Quoting DestinJeff:


Good morning, Voice-of-Reason ...



Good day to you. The interesting thing about checking supplies is that you tend to find that you no longer have many of the long lasting items you thought you had. For instance, every season I would buy about 5 flashlights and a huge bag of batteries.

When I went looking for any of that stuff the following year it was nowhere to be found. Why ?. The children would use them up doing one thing or another !.

Updating your action plan is very important as items may need to be added to it or removed from it as the case may be. For example, a family member may be on prescribed medication this year but last year no one in the family was. Make sure your list includes packing away medication for an evac if necessary and fill a new prescription a day or so before a landfalling threat. Pharmacies may be closed for days when you need to get into one.

Think ahead.
3228. SpFox
That huge tropical wave over Africa produced a massive dust storm yesterday.



3229. scott39
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


on the west side of what? firing of convection where?
At about 63W and 12n there looks like some storms firing off. Also in my humble opinion it looks like the shear isnt as stong today as yesterday.It doesnt look like it would blow the tops off the convection if it were as stong as yesterday.
Quoting DestinJeff:


all wonderful advise ... and without paying a retainer!


Did someone say "retainer " ??
3232. Patrap
Someone is in 'Counsler" mode..
3233. MahFL
Why was cycloneoz banned ?
Well, I am off for now. We do need the rain here though. In the 90's every day and heat indices around 110F.

Catch you later
Quoting Patrap:
Someone is in 'Counsler" mode..


Could you pass my soap box please !

Have a great day Pat.
3236. Patrap
U 2 Kman...and lite the pit tonight too.
Looks like we're in countdown mode.
Thanks for the good advice Kman.
Doesn't hurt to check on elderly neighbors at this time to find out their plans, either.
Patrap, that article is astonishing. Thanks for posting it.
Having a new air conditioner installed this weekend. Hope to have power to run it this summer!
3238. scott39
Quoting scott39:
At about 63W and 12n there looks like some storms firing off. Also in my humble opinion it looks like the shear isnt as stong today as yesterday.It doesnt look like it would blow the tops off the convection if it were as stong as yesterday.
Can anyone else see this on the current Sattelite, or am i just way off?
3239. Patrap
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like we're in countdown mode.
Thanks for the good advice Kman.
Doesn't hurt to check on elderly neighbors at this time to find out their plans, either.
Patrap, that article is astonishing. Thanks for posting it.
Having a new air conditioner installed this weekend. Hope to have power to run it this summer!


Here in Se. Louisiana we cherish our Air Conditioners as much as our Boats..

Well.,,,almost
Quoting MahFL:
Why was cycloneoz banned ?
he went to far in a confrontation with a troll and challenge admin i guess he lost
3241. eye
It is a slow start for a suposedly hyperactive season.....since everyone was loving comparing this season to 2005, we are already behind.....
3242. ryang
3243. scott39
Quoting ryang:
looks like life to me
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is something a little birdie gave me to share with you all ... ok, so a big birdie. Whatever. I can't say his name, but it starts with a C and ends with a ycloneOz.



a href="" target="_blank">Link


bad
move
Quoting eye:
It is a slow start for a suposedly hyperactive season.....since everyone was loving comparing this season to 2005, we are already behind.....
we got a 174 days to go lots can happen in a 174 days
3225. Patrap

Thanks Pat!

3228. SpFox

Wow.. awesome image, thanks!
Quoting scott39:
Can anyone else see this on the current Sattelite, or am i just way off?


Upper conditions are not conducive for development down there due to the TUTT in the area. Leaning towards epac development.
Quoting hurricane23:
Nothing eminent across the tropical atl as most of the caribbean is hostile this morning. Took a pan at the new ECMWF which still carries a wave into the eastern caribbean but has a (tutt) entrenched in the vicinity producing strong westerlies. Think it will be another 3-4 weeks before we can begin to look out across the eastern tropical atl.

adrian


Was looking at the GFS and that TUTT looks to be around till at least the 20th with quickly improving conditions thereafter.

What is this JFV you all speak of? Is this some kind of weather system or term?
Quoting DestinJeff:
Does the blue line roughly represent the TUTT axis? I am trying to figure out to see these things myself ..



Just to the north of your blue line where you see the isobar bulges crest to the SW.
3252. scott39
Quoting hurricane23:


Upper conditions are not conducive for development down there due to the TUTT in the area. Leaning towards epac development.
thanks, i thought when you see convection fire around a wave, that the tutt wasnt effecting it as much?
3253. IKE
Quoting BradentonBrew:
What is this JFV you all speak of? Is this some kind of weather system or term?


Hmmm...here we go again?
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Just to the north of your blue line where you see the isobar bulges crest to the SW.


Your blue line is the pressure gradient winds between the TUTT and the Anti-Cyclone to the South.
Quoting IKE:


Hmmm...here we go again?


ROFLMAO! It's only 8:27 am :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


This is like watching a fresh Coffee pot startling to peculate on the stove. Its seems to take forever to start... but once it does....
Quoting IKE:


Hmmm...here we go again?


I guess you could say that he is indeed a weather system, lmao.
Quoting DestinJeff:


like this:



Yes, if you look at Adrian's image (Hurricane23) The return flow around the south side of the TUTT is where the shear lies, lower shear north of the axis.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see JFV is not geting it yet i dony think he nos what the word banned means


if i was the Admin i would have blck him by now too where he dos not make any more names


How would you do that? You can't ban by IP; everyone's IP changes periodically; can't ban by email address, you can always get another...
3265. IKE
(CNN) -- Oil from the massive spill in the Gulf has moved into the inland waterway along coastal Alabama, prompting the U.S. Coast Guard to close Perdido Pass, the main water access route for fishermen and boaters in the popular resort town of Orange Beach.

BP and the government have tried to protect the pass for weeks with thousands of feet of boom, but thick waves of oil have seeped into the pass and down the waterway, coating the marshy shoreline as it moves through.

People in the community are frustrated, watching the massive oil spill ruin, not only the once pristine beaches and turquoise water of the Gulf, but their livelihood, as well.

Rest of the story is here.
Actually when we arent in the heat of the season, i find him quite entertaining. And the people who engage him are even more so. When it is in the heat of the season, lets face it, he is the most entertaining ever if you can read his posts amongst all the agnst going on.
Quoting Floodman:


How would you do that? You can't ban by IP; everyone's IP changes periodically; can't ban by email address, you can always get another...


People seem to think if they complain loud enough, that you can do the impossible. They don't understand that it just can't be done.

There are so many ways around it, that you can't block them all.
Weird...I was just reading comments and my screen turned totally white/greyish white. Couldn't find cursor, couldn't do anything. Had to shut down and start over. Anyone know what that means?
Quoting Patrap:


Here in Se. Louisiana we cherish our Air Conditioners as much as our Boats..

Well.,,,almost

It hasn't been worthwhile to run mine because the coil is out. Been relying on a lovely seabreeze but think it's time to bite the bullet. I traded the boat for a motorcycle. Wouldn't mind trading the mc back for a boat but the bike's got about 60,000 miles on it now and I'm not up to rowing. ;)
Quoting DestinJeff:


thanks .. I am finally seeing these TUTTS we here so much about


It's similar to a trough, wind shift line, just in the upper atmosphere. The upper level anticyclone to the south of the TUTT is tightening the gradient, evident by the closely spaced isobars to the south of the TUTT.
Quoting IKE:


Hmmm...here we go again?


Sorry if this has already been addressed. Stop in once a day or so and there are 30 pages to go through. :(
Would that wind be due to La Nina?
3274. Patrap
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 29 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy

85.2 F

Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 80%

Dew Point: 78 F

Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 5.8 mph
Pressure: 30.09 in (Rising)

Heat Index: 97 F

Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 4.50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 2000 ft
Scattered Clouds 13000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Good morning, Congrats to the hawks fans out there, they deserved lord Stanly's cup.

Does anyone know when that TUTT is expected to lift out of the Atlantic?
Also visible in the GFS 200mb upper air analysis.

Quoting SpFox:
That huge tropical wave over Africa produced a massive dust storm yesterday.



Wow. Neat observation. You can also see that the dust being blown up caused some fair weather cumulus to form on the leading edge of the sandstorm. Cool stuff.
Quoting BradentonBrew:


Sorry if this has already been addressed. Stop in once a day or so and there are 30 pages to go through. :(


Will the real JFV please stand up, and put one of those shower curtains on each hand up!
Quoting Funkadelic:
Good morning, Congrats to the hawks fans out there, they deserved lord Stanly's cup.

Does anyone know when that TUTT is expected to lift out of the Atlantic?


Looks like about 10 days according to the 06ZGFS. Seems to weaken a bit in 5 days then re-amplify through day 10.

Quoting DestinJeff:
Perhaps one of the analysts among us can generate a report showing how ENSO cycles effect JFV handle activity.

This being a neutral ENSO, headed possibly into La Nina, we have seen quite a few different manifestations of the Three-Letter-Blogger (no offense, Ike).

I suspect this has something to do with trade winds and a weak A/B High, but then what do I know?

Since we didn't have internet outside of the current active MDO cycle that began in 1995, data is limited to provide analog years for comparison.

ROFLMAO
Quoting Funkadelic:
Good morning, Congrats to the hawks fans out there, they deserved lord Stanly's cup.

Does anyone know when that TUTT is expected to lift out of the Atlantic?
yes i was speaking about the dust last night over the african coast..the wind shear is forecast to stay high for the rest of the month in the gom so no problems here..that dust will help hinder any development off the african coast..cant wait to see if the second wave will be together when it reaches the atlantic..signs already starting to show up..no way la nina is there yet..
Sorry but off topic but thats a nice Avatar
Quoting DestinJeff:
Perhaps one of the analysts among us can generate a report showing how ENSO cycles effect JFV handle activity.

This being a neutral ENSO, headed possibly into La Nina, we have seen quite a few different manifestations of the Three-Letter-Blogger (no offense, Ike).

I suspect this has something to do with trade winds and a weak A/B High, but then what do I know?

Since we didn't have internet outside of the current active MDO cycle that began in 1995, data is limited to provide analog years for comparison.


Thanks Jeff. I get it now. It's a who and not a what. ("Wondering if the JFV is going to show up today"...seemed like some sort of covection or weather element that I should look for.) My apologies to all and carry on.
Hello everyone, first time poster, long time reader. Curious to know if anyone has a guess to what the max water temps in the GOM and Carribean may pan out to be come round late aug/ early sept this season?
June 9th, 2010:

June 9th, 2005:


If I were to guestimate difference in temperate of 2010 versus 2005 within the GOM and Carribean it seems to be a full degree celsius warmer than 2005! Though wind shear may restrict the amount of storms that form this season, the first one that gets into the carribean or GOM with no shear will be killer cane. The amount of fuel availible for sustaining major hurricanes is going to be bottomless. I hope everyone in cane country understands the horrid potential this season.
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
Sorry but off topic but thats a nice Avatar


WeatherLoverinMiami:I have boxerss to you dog looks like my sugarbutt.
Sheri
P451 "BP ought to do 2 things:
1) Lower their gas prices, by even a dollar, in the states affected.
2) Hire those who have lost their jobs due to the disaster (fisherman) to help clean up the mess, and, hire them at the wages they made in their lost jobs.
"

1) Encouraging folks to waste evermore fuel through low prices is what caused this mess in the first place. The price of fuel is also why fish farmers are complaining while sports and trawler fishermen are keeping their mouths shut.
2) Can't put them to work faster than ya can train them. An untrained cleanup worker is worse than onshore crude oil.
3290. hcubed
Quoting BradentonBrew:
What is this JFV you all speak of? Is this some kind of weather system or term?


Yes, it's a weather term for a persistant low system, usually centered over SFLA, and is characterized by bad spelling.

Most models are quick to pick up on it's early signs, and the experts tend to ignore the ill winds that originate from it.
3291. P451
A lot of land based T-Storms. An ITCZ below 10 degrees. Nothing to talk about here.

Callsign DGUG2 (name unknown)

Last reported at 2010-Aug-20 06:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Aug-20 14:20 UTC.
Position N 1318', W 02624'.

Wind from 040 at 14 knots

Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 4 second period

Barometer 1008.4 mb
Air temperature 27.5 C
Visibility: greater than 10.8 NM
Dewpoint 24.1 C
Water temperature 29.0 C

Notes date/time lat lon naut miles run avg knots wind from wind knots barom visib wave height air temp dew point water temp
2010-Aug-20 06:00 N 1318' W 02624' 390 16.2 040 14 1008.4 10.8 1.5 27.5 24.1 29.0