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Kyle pulls its punch; Laura forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2008

Hurricane Kyle raced ashore over southwestern Nova Scotia last night at about 9 pm AST, rated as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds and a 985 mb pressure. Kyle did generate one hurricane force wind gust--77 mph at Baccaro Point, on the extreme southernmost point of Nova Scotia--but it is questionable whether it really was a hurricane over Nova Scotia. Kyle weakened dramatically right at landfall. The storm passed just west of Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, which measured a pressure of 988 mb at 9 pm AST last night. Even though Yarmouth was on the strong (right) side of Kyle where the highest winds should have been, the airport measured top winds of only 30 mph, gusting to 50 mph. Not even minor damage was reported there, according to news reports. Buoy 44038, which also measured a 988 mb pressure, but was located on the weak (left) side of Kyle as it came ashore, measured top sustained winds of 36 mph. Kyle generated some very high waves offshore--waves heights of 36 feet were observed at Buoy 44011 about 200 miles east of Hyannis, MA yesterday afternoon. Kyle caused minor flooding in Maine, where up to seven inches of rain was reported in Hancock County (Figure 1). Several roads flooded, but no rivers reached flood stage in Maine.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from Hurricane Kyle. Isolated rain amounts up to seven inches were reported in Maine.


Figure 2. Radar image of Kyle as it approached St. John, New Brunswick. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Yucatan disturbance
Thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system over the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent Western Caribbean waters have diminished today, and tropical storm formation is not likely in this region through Tuesday. A moist flow of tropical air will continue along a trough of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Peninsula over South Florida for the next two days, bringing rainfall amounts of up to two inches over much of South Florida. Late this week, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF models predict a tropical depression may form over the Western Caribbean.

Subtropical Storm Laura
Subtropical Storm Laura formed this morning over the middle North Atlantic, but is not a threat to any land areas. Visible satellite images show that Laura has most of its heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed several hundred miles from the center, a trait characteristic of subtropical storms. However, Laura is over waters of about 26°C, which is warm enough to support a fully tropical storm. Indeed, the latest satellite images show heavy thunderstorms beginning to wrap around the center, and Laura could be a hurricane by Tuesday morning. By Wednesday, Laura should get caught up by the jet stream and recurved out to sea without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Laura.

I'll have an update on the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity relief efforts in my next post, which will be Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Kyle's Wave Action@ Easton's Beach # 12
Hurricane Kyle's Wave Action@ Easton's Beach # 12
After being knocked around early on by Hurricane Kyle-induced waves, this guy decided to give it up!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "PABLO" has maintained its strength and moves closer to Samar-Leyte Area.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3 (2100z 29SEPT)
==================================
At 5 AM PhT, Tropical Storm Pablo located at 10.1°N 128.3°E or 280 kms southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 km/h(35kts) with gustiness of up to 80 km/h(45kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)
Visayas Region
1.Eastern Samar
2.Leyte
3.Biliran island

Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
1.Northern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Southern Leyte

Mindanao Region
1.Siargao Island
2.Dinagat Island
492. Beachfoxx

LOL!

I'm just glad the weather is going to be cool. We'll be camping and with the cool weather I'll get to build a big camp fire!
Thanks StormW!
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Well, I guess I'll have to "pony up" too.

Where does that expression come from?
"pony up"???



You got me curious so I researched. Could only find definitions. No origins. Now I am REALLY curious.
Found it:

PONY UP - "Since the 1800s, 'pony up,' or 'poney up,' has been American slang for 'to pay up.' These words may derive from the German 'poniren,' 'to pay,' but 'pony' was British slang for a small amount of money in the early 19th century, probably because a pony is a small horse (not over 14 hands high), and the term to 'pony up' probably derived from this expression. Other uses of 'pony' to indicate smallness include the 'pony' that is a small glass or bottle of alcohol beverage and the 'pony' meaning a trot or crib - a translation used by students." From the "Encyclopedia of Word and Phrase Origins" by Robert Hendrickson (Facts on File, New York, 1997).
Have fun! TTYL

Quoting 69Viking:
492. Beachfoxx

LOL!

I'm just glad the weather is going to be cool. We'll be camping and with the cool weather I'll get to build a big camp fire!
RE:506. Seastep

Thanks!
Oh good we lost 1.2 trillion dollars on the stock market.
thanks StormW!
Hello everyone! Anything new in the tropics?
Complete refresh

All Systems ... Atlantic
Subtropical Storm ... Laura
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC & ... GOM
CMC & ... Caribbean
CMC & ... Eastern Seaboard
CMC & ... Eastern Seaboard Part 2 & 3
CMC & ... South Eastern Florida
STS Laura...
Nero fiddled while Rome burned....
Thats what the politicians are doing to us.
This is just the beginning of the 2nd great depression. Sorry I had to reply to the trillion dollar loss comment.

At least we will have a couple more nice days to do yard work without rain. The blob in the Gulf had me wondering.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Oh good we lost 1.2 trillion dollars on the stock market.

This market is going to create some great buying opps.
On another note, it looks like we are in for some rain over the next few days. When in the hell are they going to take us off the water restrictions?
Take a deep breath and relax gang.

In 1987, the stock market plummeted over 26% and today it only dropped 7%. By todays standards that would mean the stock market would have to drop over 2400 points to equal 1987.

Just like some of this man-made global warming nonsense, the press is largely responsible for ginning up the hysteria.

Hey...I have a novel idea...why not keep this blog just about the weather and leave the politics and such at the door when we come in?
Quoting StormW:
513. TampaMishy 6:08 PM EDT on September 29, 2008
Hello everyone! Anything new in the tropics?


Not much Mishy! Just STS Laura.
And where is she at?
hey billy305, did you ever read in my comment that I wanted a hurricane anywhere ??!! No!! Saying that! Its sad that things happen the way they happen!, I would never wish for a 5 to hit anywhere!! And I don't want eople to die!, do I want a storm?! Yes! Very much so! Sadly what we meteorologists like hurts others!! That is sad, I would never wish a 5 on anyone!!! You mistake me very much so! Thanks for the comment though! Have a good day!
Quoting clamshell:
Take a deep breath and relax gang.

In 1987, the stock market plummeted over 26% and today it only dropped 7%. By todays standards that would mean the stock market would have to drop over 2400 points to equal 1987.

Just like some of this man-made global warming nonsense, the press is largely responsible for ginning up the hysteria.

Hey...I have a novel idea...why not keep this blog just about the weather and leave the politics and such at the door when we come in?


Yeah Im gonna have to agree with you.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
If you are a member the ads do not show...
You might try clearing your cache.

Plywood, sorry.... but I am loving this weather! Even going to head to beach on Weds and stay at condo!! Whooo HOOO!! (Yep, I know, I live at the beach (the bay actually)... but its more fun when it feels like vacation! : )

Did the poodles catch the mouse?
520. TampaMishy 10:12 PM GMT on September 29, 2008

west of the Azores
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


If this makes for some great buying ops, I suggest we invest in new energy technologies.I don't know why you would still have water restrictions with there still being high water in areas down there in the FL Peninsula... is it that maybe its just a foot or so low?
I understand there has not been a stock market crash persay as the stockmarket hasn't fallen by 20% or more in a trading day. But its dropped almost 20% in value in a month.
hey Storm, could you please expalin to me why wind shear is going to be so high over the gulf for the next couple of days?? th
That is one monster of a rainband coming into S Fla that could drop a hell of a lot.
bbl out to play in the yard
Beachfoxx:(RE: continuous loading WU page) - Clearing the cache worked - Thanks
How about that either cache or cash would have worked.
Quite a jump in wind speed here:

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed

2115 34.4 kts SSE ( 162 deg true )

A tad breezy out there:

Link
Quoting StormW:
Mishy...about 38N;47W

LAURA

WIDE VIEW

mail.
k
Day time heating should give this storm enough time to hit land if it does than the night won't matter.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Beachfoxx:(RE: continuous loading WU page) - Clearing the cache worked - Thanks
How about that either cache or cash would have worked.


Its well worth the $10 to join.. and it helps with the upkeep of the site.
so if we join we dont have to refresh all te time?
South central and Central Flordia getting pummeled.
Quoting intunewindchime:
so if we join we dont have to refresh all te time?

You have to refresh.. just no ads.. a lot faster
RE: 536. Orcasystems

$10 is a small amount to pay for all the enjoyment and knowledge that I have received here. Still.. will have to wait to payday (and that is a sad state of affairs.)
Florida is a bit on the damp side.


Click to enlarge
heh auto-refresh.. man that would be wierd on a forum. -_-'
When is the shear supposed to ease in the GOM/West Caribbean?
Quoting Orcasystems:
Florida is a bit on the damp side.


Click to enlarge
I wish we were gettin some up here in North Florida
Is that blob off of Florida's West coast going to bring heavy rains and possible tornado's to Lauderdale??
Quoting Orcasystems:
Florida is a bit on the damp side.


Click to enlarge


You beat me to it. I was just about to show the NWS long range radar loop out of Tampa showing the "blob" building off shore.
i gotta feeling this is florida's october date with storms warm up! lol
Quoting KEHCharleston:
When is the shear supposed to ease in the GOM/West Caribbean?


Shear is already favorable in the Caribbean under the support of an upper level ridge. What's missing is something to instigate cyclogenesis.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Does the GOM system still have a chance of become a depression? Where's Cyber Teddy?


Asleep on the couch watching Fox News.
551. 7544
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


You beat me to it. I was just about to show the NWS long range radar loop out of Tampa showing the "blob" building off shore.


thanks eacatly what i posted 4 pages back if this could happen . and it just might before crossing over the pinisular as most modeles where also calling for some extra building

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
RE:549. Drakoen
Thanks. At first I could only find sites telling me what the shear is now. I think I finally figured out where to get the info.

Link

If I am reading it correctly, the shear in the GOM will remain hostile at least through Oct 3. Is that right?
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:549. Drakoen
Thanks. At first I could only find sites telling me what the shear is now. I think I finally figured out where to get the info.

Link

If I am reading it correctly, the shear in the GOM will remain hostile at least through Oct 3. Is that right?


Shear will naturally be unfavorable for development in the GOM because of the predominant meridional flow with an upper level trough in the region. The real area to be concerned with is the Caribbean where shear is low.
Folks,
Thank you for all the help and information (and patience answering my questions!)
Y'all have a good night (or whatever, depending on where you live)



Laura is pretty strong right now. The systems from Florida to Honduras to Colombia could eventually develop in the Caribbean or in the Atlantic Gulf Stream. Now, pay close attention to 91E in the Pacific. The models are split between predicting it to potentially re-emerge in the Gulf and have the chance of re-developing in the Atlantic if the conditions are right (CMC, GFDL, mm5fsu-merge, NOGAPS, UKMET, LBAR) or for it to become a very strong hurricane and likely make landfall in an unusual location in Mexico (GFS, HWRF, BAMM, SHIPS). West Pacific warrants some attention too. This is going to be an interesting week. ~~~~
Hi Garns, Good to see Laura is no where near us! Looks like the rest of the wishcasters are catching up, H S I O (( 9-25-08 )). See ya at IDA.
Refreshed Blog
558. eddye
it loooks like a heavy rain band coming towards south fl from the carribean
Laura Update
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 PM NDT... SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.6 N AND LONGITUDE 48.0 W... ABOUT 585 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1090
KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB.
LAURA IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
SEP 29 3.30 PM 37.6N 48.0W 994 55 102
SEP 30 3.30 AM 38.9N 48.4W 992 60 111
SEP 30 3.30 PM 40.5N 48.2W 990 60 111
OCT 01 3.30 AM 42.8N 47.5W 992 60 111 TRANSITIONING
OCT 01 3.30 PM 45.9N 45.9W 996 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 02 3.30 AM 49.2N 43.8W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 02 3.30 PM 53.1N 38.4W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
Quoting Orcasystems:
Laura Update
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 PM NDT... SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.6 N AND LONGITUDE 48.0 W... ABOUT 585 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1090
KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB.
LAURA IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
SEP 29 3.30 PM 37.6N 48.0W 994 55 102
SEP 30 3.30 AM 38.9N 48.4W 992 60 111
SEP 30 3.30 PM 40.5N 48.2W 990 60 111
OCT 01 3.30 AM 42.8N 47.5W 992 60 111 TRANSITIONING
OCT 01 3.30 PM 45.9N 45.9W 996 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 02 3.30 AM 49.2N 43.8W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 02 3.30 PM 53.1N 38.4W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

Whered you get that?
Quoting eddye:
it loooks like a heavy rain band coming towards south fl from the carribean
Eddye why did you get a gray stripe tropical distubance?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


You beat me to it. I was just about to show the NWS long range radar loop out of Tampa showing the "blob" building off shore.


Don't let surfmom see your avatar, she will be jelous
Quoting StormW:
529. BKeen12 6:18 PM EDT on September 29, 2008
hey Storm, could you please expalin to me why wind shear is going to be so high over the gulf for the next couple of days?? th


Just dropped by quick...was getting dinner ready...now I'm eating...I'll get back to you in a little.
Stormy, is your sea leval as high as ours here in Fort Luaderdale. For the last month our tide has come up to the top of the cap on our sea wall. I have lived here for 43yr's. havent seen it like this. Can you give us some insight?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah Im gonna have to agree with you.
I think people are trying, but it's also really hard to focus on the weather when almost nothing is happening in the ATL and the money markets seem like such a big worry.

To put it another way, when Ike was still travelling, nobody in here was talking about the stock market . . . I agree with u, though.
Quoting SOUTHFL43YRS:
Stormy, is your sea leval as high as ours here in Fort Luaderdale. For the last month our tide has come up to the top of the cap on our sea wall. I have lived here for 43yr's. havent seen it like this. Can you give us some insight?


ummm ahhh hmm no I can't.
Quoting SOUTHFL43YRS:
Stormy, is your sea leval as high as ours here in Fort Luaderdale. For the last month our tide has come up to the top of the cap on our sea wall. I have lived here for 43yr's. havent seen it like this. Can you give us some insight?


Sea Level may be the wrong term to use. Are you thinking your getting higher tides.. or are you thinking land erosions or sinking/settling. Or do you think the sea is actually higher/deeper in relationship to what it was years ago?

Even taking into consideration GW (Taboo word) you would only be talking an inch or two in your lifetime.


Well day time heating should fizzle out in 30-45 mintues by then the band should start to weaken until it gets to land.
570. 7544
maybe a lot of sheer in the gom but the blob seems to building lots of convection . on the southern part get ready sw fla your turn first . se is next

Link
Storm it would suck for us to get hit with a East ot west TC when with all this water piling up. luckly that time is over.

bbl.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE: 536. Orcasystems

$10 is a small amount to pay for all the enjoyment and knowledge that I have received here. Still.. will have to wait to payday (and that is a sad state of affairs.)

I think it shows you have dicipline to control your spending. Something to be proud now adays. That which doesn't kill us, only makes us stronger.
Gulf is closed for TC development and while the NW/SW caribbean looks disturbed i dont see any signs of development in the near term.Looks rather wet through tommorow across southern florida.

Lets keep in mind during this month the Gulf, Caribbean and nearby Atlantic waters take on a higher percentage risk area of tropical genesis, so we cannot let our guard down. It only takes a weak frontal boundary, some light wind shear and a cluster or two of thunderstorms to strike up our next named system.

Adrian

I'll be driftin' in and out, ya'll. Got some work to do tonight (procrastinated over the weekend lol)
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:549. Drakoen
Thanks. At first I could only find sites telling me what the shear is now. I think I finally figured out where to get the info.

Link

If I am reading it correctly, the shear in the GOM will remain hostile at least through Oct 3. Is that right?


Yep... It seems that SFLA is in the clear and dodged another bullet for the 08 hurricane season!!! They have been talking about really bad rains down here but other then a few minutes of rain here and there, not much at all. I think the rain forecasts where a little off except in isolateds spots.
Quoting JupiterFL:

I think it shows you have dicipline to control your spending. Something to be proud now adays. That which doesn't kill us, only makes us stronger.


Not necessarily true. Some, through no fault of their own, get broken on the wheel of life. Tell that to a Nam Vet who has had PTSS for 30 years. (Not me)
Quoting Vortex95:
South central and Central Flordia getting pummeled.


How exactly??? Im in South Fl and I am certainly not getting pummeled???
Quoting bwt1982:


Yep... It seems that SFLA is in the clear and dodged another bullet for the 08 hurricane season!!! They have been talking about really bad rains down here but other then a few minutes of rain here and there, not much at all. I think the rain forecasts where a little off except in isolateds spots.


I hope you are right but a little early to say we dodged a bullet....I am sure all the people still out of there homes after 1 month from Fay's flooding wouldn't agree.
Quoting hurricane23:
Gulf is closed for TC development and while the NW/SW caribbean looks disturbed i dont see any signs of development in the near term.Looks rather wet through tommorow across southern florida.

Lets keep in mind during this month the Gulf, Caribbean and nearby Atlantic waters take on a higher percentage risk area of tropical genesis, so we cannot let our guard down. It only takes a weak frontal boundary, some light wind shear and a cluster or two of thunderstorms to strike up our next named system.

Adrian




I agree, I've heard several reports of H.S.I.O.(hurricane season is over) I remember WILMA very well.
Quoting bwt1982:


How exactly??? Im in South Fl and I am certainly not getting pummeled???


Maybe no pummelled.. but wet



Click to Enlarge

Yep... It seems that SFLA is in the clear and dodged another bullet for the 08 hurricane season!!
575. bwt1982


Complete nonsence....Please stop.

October has the potential to be very dangerous for southern florida.
adrian you don't have to remind me. Wilma comes to mind. I hate those flashbacks
Quoting tshirtgirl75:


I hope you are right but a little early to say we dodged a bullet....I am sure all the people still out of there homes after 1 month from Fay's flooding wouldn't agree.


I don't remember any flooding going on in SOUTH FLA. North and Central Florida experienced ALOT of flooding but I was talking about South Fla dodging a bullet.
Quoting Drakoen:


Shear will naturally be unfavorable for development in the GOM because of the predominant meridional flow with an upper level trough in the region. The real area to be concerned with is the Caribbean where shear is low.

Can you tell if it will be raining Wednesday afternoon in west central Florida?
So I actually have a good question. I spent an hour looking for rainfall reports for the past couple of days for miami-dade. The only two things I found were a couple of personal weather stations & a graphic with color coded estimates on NWS.

Does anyone have any other sites that may have this info?

Thanks
Quoting hurricane23:
575. bwt1982

Yep... It seems that SFLA is in the clear and dodged another bullet for the 08 hurricane season!!!

Complete nonsence....Please stop.

October has the potential to be very dangerous for southern florida.


Yep. Wilma didn't even form until October 15th.
NOAA site has a big banner saying October is one of the busiest months for hurricanes in So Fla.

Seems to me they have the numbers...
Quoting Chicklit:

Can you tell if it will be raining Wednesday afternoon in western central Florida?


Threat for rain decreases on Wednesday as our low/trough moves out. Tuesday is going to be very soggy. Probably be best to stay indoors especially in south Florida. The latest GFS 24hr QPF amounts show maxima near 4 inches around the lake. It's not being as generous to Central Florida as the NAM model is which is moving the heavest rain across central Florida. Looking at the HPC, they seem to think the highest totals will fall around South Florida in favor of the GFS model.
like I said the season is not over, Fl has a bad habit of storms forming and smacking us during that point in the year.
Quoting zoomiami:
So I actually have a good question. I spent an hour looking for
rainfall reports for the past couple of days for miami-dade. The only
two things I found were a couple of personal weather stations & a
graphic with color coded estimates on NWS.

Does anyone have any other sites that may have this info?

Thanks

Check the web site of the local paper
Quoting bwt1982:


Yep... It seems that SFLA is in the clear and dodged another bullet for the 08 hurricane season!!! They have been talking about really bad rains down here but other then a few minutes of rain here and there, not much at all. I think the rain forecasts where a little off except in isolateds spots.


dont be lulled into a false sense of security
60 days 4 hrs 3 mins remain of the 2008 hurricane season
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


dont be lulled into a false sense of security
60 days 4 hrs 3 mins remain of the 2008 hurricane season


Don't even be lulled by the countdown.

We do have December storms, never hurts to keep an eye on things. Remember, climatology hasn't been a big friend this year in terms of forecasting.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


dont be lulled into a false sense of security
60 days 4 hrs 3 mins remain of the 2008 hurricane season


Don't even be lulled by the countdown.

We do have December storms, never hurts to keep an eye on things. Remember, climatology hasn't been a big friend this year in terms of forecasting.

keeper, that gate has not slammed shut yet on Florida at all. Still wide open, unfortunately.
Quoting StormW:
564. SOUTHFL43YRS 7:18 PM EDT on September 29, 2008
Quoting StormW:
529. BKeen12 6:18 PM EDT on September 29, 2008
hey Storm, could you please expalin to me why wind shear is going to be so high over the gulf for the next couple of days?? th


Just dropped by quick...was getting dinner ready...now I'm eating...I'll get back to you in a little.
Stormy, is your sea leval as high as ours here in Fort Luaderdale. For the last month our tide has come up to the top of the cap on our sea wall. I have lived here for 43yr's. havent seen it like this. Can you give us some insight?


My tides here appear to be normal...It's to my understanding, that with the systems that have been near enough to your coast, there has been a lot of moderate to strong easterlies, and with such a long fetch, water has been piling up.
Thanks StormW, I hope they will the will get back to normal, and this is not the beging of a trend.
Quoting hurricane23:

Yep... It seems that SFLA is in the clear and dodged another bullet for the 08 hurricane season!!
575. bwt1982


Complete nonsence....Please stop.

October has the potential to be very dangerous for southern florida.
Good point. October, especially early/late, can be a dangerous month. Notice the secondary spike in storm formation? A lot of these storms form in the WCar and end up hitting FL W to E or cross Cuba and take advantage of still warm Gulf Stream waters.
Mitch formed in October too.
Quoting bwt1982:


Yep... It seems that SFLA is in the clear and dodged another bullet for the 08 hurricane season!!! They have been talking about really bad rains down here but other then a few minutes of rain here and there, not much at all. I think the rain forecasts where a little off except in isolateds spots.


Where have you been? In Miami-Dade and Broward we have gotten soaked. A tornado touched down in Key West this afternoon, two that didn't touch down were spotted in South Dade. I've gotten over 8 inches of rain from Sunday thru today. I think the forecast has been spot on.
If an Opal or Wilma type storm were to form anywhere in the BOC or GOMEX from now till Oct 10th....unfortunately anywhere from Talahassee, FL all the way down to Orlando, FL would be at risk...same if a storm were to form in the Carib...western/central GOMEX is shut down at least till Oct 10th.
PlywoodStateNative:

Thanks for reminding me about he 3 weeks of no power after Wilma.
and Mitch was a major mind you
Quoting zoomiami:
So I actually have a good question. I spent an hour looking for rainfall reports for the past couple of days for miami-dade. The only two things I found were a couple of personal weather stations & a graphic with color coded estimates on NWS.

Does anyone have any other sites that may have this info?

Thanks


Link
Zoomiami:

Have you looked at www.sfwmd.gov site. Click on Weather and a large map showing estimated rainfall comes up. Pretty neat and you can even go back several days / weeks. If you have trouble navigating let me know. I use the site alot.
cmack, I hate to say this. But if you look at the Yucatan Channel, look at the TCHP in that area. You want to talk about a Rapid Intesification for something?
Quoting PELLSPROG:



I agree, I've heard several reports of H.S.I.O.(hurricane season is over) I remember WILMA very well.
Yes most of So. Fl remembers Wilma, One good thing is that in Oct, we may not have to need our AC. That can make a big difference. Temps in the 90's can be untolarable.
Orcasystems,

Link Zoomiami to the graphical page too. That one is more eye pleasing, although not as accurate as the one you linked too.

Everytime I try to link on this blog it doesn't work for some reason!
Quoting zoomiami:
So I actually have a good question. I spent an hour looking for rainfall reports for the past couple of days for miami-dade. The only two things I found were a couple of personal weather stations & a graphic with color coded estimates on NWS.

Does anyone have any other sites that may have this info?

Thanks


Be glad to help you....

Here are 2 links i use often for Monthly Normal and Record Precipitation

Here's a look at precip totals for south florida yesterday the 28th.You have several options to choose

Ive created a page on my website that all offers all many radar views across southern florida which you can use anytime if you wish.



Quoting Cotillion:


Don't even be lulled by the countdown.

We do have December storms, never hurts to keep an eye on things. Remember, climatology hasn't been a big friend this year in terms of forecasting.

but once nov 30 hits iam around for the season round up but then i pretty much disappear unless we get some bad severe weather popin during the winter but normally iam not on as much in the off season and sometimes in the dead of winter you be lucky if you get 200 posts on one of jeffs blogs over a couple of days everyone pretty much hibernates for winter
Quoting Drakoen:


Threat for rain decreases on Wednesday as our low/trough moves out. Tuesday is going to be very soggy. Probably be best to stay indoors especially in south Florida. The latest GFS 24hr QPF amounts show maxima near 4 inches around the lake. It's not being as generous to Central Florida as the NAM model is which is moving the heavest rain across central Florida. Looking at the HPC, they seem to think the highest totals will fall around South Florida in favor of the GFS model.

Thanks for that report. I think I will plan on riding my motorcycle then.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
cmack, I hate to say this. But if you look at the Yucatan Channel, look at the TCHP in that area. You want to talk about a Rapid Intesification for something?


As Gustav and Ike showed this year low wind shear and the loop current means nothing the strong hold shear in the gulf would have to relax for me to worry.....many other dynamics have to right as well...and we in SELA know about stalled out fronts and what they can do but the ones that clear all the way into the gulf bring drier air into the gulf and tropical systems hate dry air.

time to bring out the halloween decorations and say good bye to the once a week grass cutting...now down to 2 to 3 weeks in between
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
cmack, I hate to say this. But if you look at the Yucatan Channel, look at the TCHP in that area. You want to talk about a Rapid Intesification for something?
Looks like it's moving fast, not a lot of time to develope.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but once nov 30 hits iam around for the season round up but then i pretty much disappear unless we get some bad severe weather popin during the winter but normally iam not on as much in the off season and sometimes in the dead of winter you be lucky if you get 200 posts on one of jeffs blogs over a couple of days everyone pretty much hibernates for winter


The GW and AGW people come out of hibernation.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but once nov 30 hits iam around for the season round up but then i pretty much disappear unless we get some bad severe weather popin during the winter but normally iam not on as much in the off season and sometimes in the dead of winter you be lucky if you get 200 posts on one of jeffs blogs over a couple of days everyone pretty much hibernates for winter


Technically if we did not have the hostile wind shear environment, the Caribbean sustains the warm waters to produce tropical systems year round.
Um Gustav went over Cuba, did not come close to passing through the channel between Cuba and the Yucatan
o yay i forgot about them guys and gals drak

lol
GW, AGW?
Speed and Location of his movement is what determined his strength. Nothing else. He did not sit over the channel long enough, plus the fact that he was a large storm.
By the time we get around April we start discussing ENSO and then looking at long range model simulations and climatology. Same as we do every year.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but once nov 30 hits iam around for the season round up but then i pretty much disappear unless we get some bad severe weather popin during the winter but normally iam not on as much in the off season and sometimes in the dead of winter you be lucky if you get 200 posts on one of jeffs blogs over a couple of days everyone pretty much hibernates for winter
Most of us who stick around during the winter do so because we are watching SIndian Ocean and SPac storms. We've had a couple of interesting moments, mainly in February and March, which is about equivalent to our Aug-Sept.

Some weeks even the severe weather in the N hemisphere isn't all that exciting.
cmack, what I see is this. You are contradicting most of the well respect bloggers in here. Learn from them, do not contradict what they say.
Quoting Chicklit:
GW, AGW?


Global Warming; Al Gore Global Warming
whats the MJO doing right now
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Um Gustav went over Cuba, did not come close to passing through the channel between Cuba and the Yucatan


Less of it than you think...it was a 4 right after merging off the less mountainess region
Situation in the gulf reminds me slightly of both Barry and Pre-Cristobal.
OK, looked at the calendar.
Yucatan is off limits to everything except sun and no winds from Nov 28 thru Dec 19th.

Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, looked at the calendar.
Yucatan is off limits to everything except sun and no winds from Nov 28 thru Dec 19th.



That being said... NeverPanic is there next week.. so a little rain and wind then would be nice :)
309
TCNA21 RJTD 300000 CCB
CCAA 30000 47644 JANGMI(0815) 22288 11237 13214 235// 90416=
MEKKHALA(0816) 23175 11070 13344 235// 92810=
NAMELESS 24110 11271 1329/ 225//=

Jangmi(8015) 28.8N 123.7E
Dvorak Intensity: 3.5

Mekkhala(0816) 17.5N 107.0E
Dvorak Intensity: 3.5

NAMELESS(TD) 11.0N 127.1E
Dvorak Intensity: 2.5

=======================================

although it says "Nameless" the dvorak intensity is good enough to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Higos.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
cmack, what I see is this. You are contradicting most of the well respect bloggers in here. Learn from them, do not contradict what they say.


no contradiction here...plus most of the respected bloggers do not live in the areas that are REALLY effected by these monsters nor do they know what really happens in these areas....i tend to believe the local mets than the NHC, NOAA, and the other sites out there...they are the ones that have the local knowledge when it comes to these systems...Nash Roberts was and still is the best when it comes to forecasting hurricanes...i will take his magic markers any day over the NHC's cone of error...BOTTOM line is, I have lived in LA all my life and our season is done by the time we get our first real cold front (Oct 10-15th) however, we have had many early pushes of cooler and drier air...this coupled by the strong wind shear in the gulf, i am sorry but no one can convince me that something can head our way with the above stated. Stats are on our side plus our local mets know what they are talking about.
Complete Refresh
Post videos of Happy Feet...and Palin in 'White Winter' wear scoping for Russians.
Quoting Drakoen:


Global Warming; Al Gore Global Warming


Yeah, it drove me nuts last winter! Hardly anyone on here that could answer an intelligent question...
Hi Orca, Chicklit, Beach :)
There are still a couple of waves out there with enough oomph to stir something up if they get into more favorable conditions closer to the CAR. While the CV season is just about closed, Twaves still propogate across the basin and can form the nucleus of an October / November storm.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V STRUCTURE TO
LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ALONG WAVE AXIS...WHERE COMPUTER
MODEL GUIDANCE CONFIRMS WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS ALSO SHOWS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS S OF 6N...AND ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS N OF
12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT BROAD-LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ALSO BROADLY DISTRIBUTED AROUND WAVE. THIS WAVE IS
DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH...RESULTING IN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

good amount of rain approaching S.W. FL.
















I hope when 2009 comes around its no were near as deadly and destructive as 2008.
2008 was the second most damaging hurricane season and only second to 2005.
Quoting violet312s:
Hi Orca, Chicklit, Beach :)


Evening Violet
Quoting Abacosurf:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

good amount of rain approaching S.W. FL.


















It's pouring buckets (technical term :)) here in the Cape.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I hope when 2009 comes around its no were near as deadly and destructive as 2008.
2008 was the second most damaging hurricane season and only second to 2005.


You guys are talking like 2008 is dead and gone. I hope you don't have to regret those remarks later
Quoting CatastrophicDL:


Yeah, it drove me nuts last winter! Hardly anyone on here that could answer an intelligent question...

Did I miss something or is it winter now?
Quoting cmackla:


no contradiction here...plus most of the respected bloggers do not live in the areas that are REALLY effected by these monsters nor do they know what really happens in these areas....i tend to believe the local mets than the NHC, NOAA, and the other sites out there...they are the ones that have the local knowledge when it comes to these systems...Nash Roberts was and still is the best when it comes to forecasting hurricanes...i will take his magic markers any day over the NHC's cone of error...BOTTOM line is, I have lived in LA all my life and our season is done by the time we get our first real cold front (Oct 10-15th) however, we have had many early pushes of cooler and drier air...this coupled by the strong wind shear in the gulf, i am sorry but no one can convince me that something can head our way with the above stated. Stats are on our side plus our local mets know what they are talking about.
I'd like to see some stats on this. I've heard this before about TX also, but nobody every anted up with last dates for hurricane strikes along these coasts. Any links etc. we could look at?
What are the chances of seeing 5 more atlantic tropical systems?
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
What are the chances of seeing 5 more storms?


Unlikely if you ask me.
Quoting Drakoen:


Unlikely if you ask me.


How many do you think we might have?
Low 1009 by 18N 14W at 30/00UTC
Tropical wave along 26W south of 17N, moving W near 10 kt.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


How many do you think we might have?


2-3.
647. Will this October be really unfavorable for development?
642. Baha...
The NHC query tool at Link will pull up by location over any selected date range.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Quick look - 3 or 4 vcty of LA in Oct, usually early but latest was end of month.

Yogi
Quoting Drakoen:


2-3.


2-3 TD/TS
1-2 Cat 1
1 Major
I just uploaded this in youtube

my youtube page


Quoting CybrTeddy:
Situation in the gulf reminds me slightly of both Barry and Pre-Cristobal.


Could this become a tropical storm like those two?
Quoting CapeObserver:


It's pouring buckets (technical term :)) here in the Cape.


Quoting bwt1982:


Yep... It seems that SFLA is in the clear and dodged another bullet for the 08 hurricane season!!! They have been talking about really bad rains down here but other then a few minutes of rain here and there, not much at all. I think the rain forecasts where a little off except in isolateds spots.


Foolish remark...
Quoting SWFLDigTek:




Here is a new Game.. its called find Zoo



Click to enlarge
Why is it that I look at the satelite images and see a constant stream of convection building across the GOM but yet TWC does not show this in the forcast for this weekend in SWFL.
Quoting bwt1982:


I don't remember any flooding going on in SOUTH FLA. North and Central Florida experienced ALOT of flooding but I was talking about South Fla dodging a bullet.


well Bonita Springs had about 400 or so people in a shelter till just recently....maybe cause they are in double wides no one cares but hey a home is a home...
Quoting YogiNav:
642. Baha...
The NHC query tool at Link will pull up by location over any selected date range.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Quick look - 3 or 4 vcty of LA in Oct, usually early but latest was end of month.

Yogi
Thanks. I'm familiar with that and will run a query for TX also. But from what u saw, u are saying another LA strike is unlikely, but not impossible? (low probability, in other words)

Betty?
Good evening all! I just got home from the gym right now. So, what have I missed?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I hope when 2009 comes around its no were near as deadly and destructive as 2008.
2008 was the second most damaging hurricane season and only second to 2005.
early jan will tell tale signs of coming season in the form of whats playing out in mid jan i know last jan we got a early run at some wicked weather
Quoting Chicklit:

Betty?


just rain, check the shear...



If anything could develop, it would have to do so in the CARIB...
663. JRRP
do you think that may form 6 storm in the rest of the season in agreement with the prediction????
Nuthin. Gulf is interesting but shear looks too high.
Link
Betty #659.....That is exactly the image I was talking about. And SWFL has a 20-30% chance of rain this weekend.
Betty's the opposite of Wilma BTW.
657. There were plenty of single family homes, not mobile homes that were under water in Bonita Springs as well. Those folks just don't end up in a shelter and hence on the news. Bonita has a large migrant community that was effected and didn't have family or friends they could stay with. The sheet flow in that area is notorious. It happened some 13/14 years ago as well.
Whoa!

Quoting UWalkTheMall:
Betty #659.....That is exactly the image I was talking about. And SWFL has a 20-30% chance of rain this weekend.

Today is Monday, right..?
Quoting Chicklit:
Betty's the opposite of Wilma BTW.


And cuter too...LOL
Quoting BahaHurican:
Whoa!



Please tell me the shear forecast is going to hold. That does not look good.
Does this GOM storm have any chances of becoming a depression?
Quoting JRRP:
do you think that may form 6 storm in the rest of the season in agreement with the prediction????
I am thinking more like 3 more storms. I doubt we'll see 3 more hurricanes, but 3 more named storms seems pretty possible . . .
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Does this GOM storm have any chances of becoming a depression?


Not really, not in the GOM at least...
50+ KT Shear
Guys, did Hurricane23 leave yet? Because I wanted to ask him a couple of questions.
hmm shear 30-50 knots and there is an area of interest in the GOM
677. eddye
look at that severe red coming to se fl from the carribean
Quoting SWFLDigTek:


Not really, not in the GOM at least...
50+ KT Shear


Could it emerge somewhere else like what cristobal did?
Quoting JRRP:
do you think that may form 6 storm in the rest of the season in agreement with the prediction????

that doesn't sound right???
658. Baha...
If you select climatology and look at Oct-Dec for the last fifty years - 1 for TX, few for LA to FL panhandle (Oct), more down in SFL. Probable? Depends on all the normal hurricane forecast factors regularly discussed here. I wouldn't make a bet on the past when we have specific current info.
I wouldn't bet against Orca's or Drak's numbers.
Yogi
666. Chicklit . . . .hmm . . shouldn't there be some kind of ban on that number while posting? Something like the 13 on elevators!

Is there a Fred and Barney joke in there too?

So, am I getting this straight. . .the system that they thought might spin up in the BOC is no longer? Now we are eyeballing that blob off the SW coast of Florida? Just asking because my sister is vacationing in St. Petersburg. Off course, I've heard on here many times that Tampa area never gets hit, right?
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Could it emerge somewhere else like what cristobal did?


See #662...
Shear is strong well into the ATL, so I really doubt this area of CNV is going to do any developing.
Yes Canuck, Tampa never gets hit. Not even when it rains everywhere else in Florida...
but there's always a first time.
Quoting Abacosurf:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

good amount of rain approaching S.W. FL.


Yes it is. We have been lucky here so far & not much has yet fallen on the SJR basin, but it looks like that may not last long. We were gaining some ground (literally).

Quoting BahaHurican:
I'd like to see some stats on this. I've heard this before about TX also, but nobody every anted up with last dates for hurricane strikes along these coasts. Any links etc. we could look at?


October land falling storms LA: source cited http://www.thecajuns.com/lahurricanes.htm

October 7-10th, 1778
October 7-10th, 1779:
October 6-7, 1837:
October 2-6th, 1867:
October 1-3rd, 1868:
October 1-4th, 1871
October 11-13, 1886:
October 16-19th, 1887:
October 1-2nd, 1893
October 27-31st, 1985 (Juan):
October 4th, 1995 (Opal):
October 5-8th, 1996 (Josephine):
Oct. 3, 2002 - Hurricane Lili

-----------------------

Only 1 in modern time hit LA after Oct 15th. Juan in 1985 hit LA. It is 2008 and if you do the math Juan was 23 years ago. 1/23 I will take those odds heading into October. Thats a 5% chance LA will see a landfall 95% we wont after Oct 15th.

It's prolly just rain. I'm looking at the satloop and doesn't look like nothin's rotatin'. . . lol

Still, I forecast some heavy overnight rains for S FL and NW Bahamas [do they last so long]
From the 8 PM NHC Discussion:
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE S/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W WESTWARD TO THE LOW AND THEN TO THE SW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THESE FEATURES IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF S OF 28N...AFFECTING MUCH OF S FLORIDA AND W CUBA.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Here is a new Game.. its called find Zoo



Click to enlarge
pretty easy!
Hey Storm, it looks like we are about to get hammered over here.
Quoting conchygirl:
pretty easy!


I thought so too, but figured maybe it was a trick of some type so decided not to say anything...
I've got a couple of orange trees that could use some rain here in Central Florida! Will see what happens with these storms. I hope they come through here tomorrow and clear out by Wednesday.
Sarasota - just got infrom walking the dog - still dry here...looks like some fun in a little while..
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #3
09:00 AM JST September 30 2008
=======================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Higos (1000 hPa) located at 11.0N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 19 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.4N 124.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.5N 121.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.2N 118.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

---
3 active typhoon names in the WPAC
Would enjoy a little thunder tonight...
My chances of going into a depression are higher than those showers SW of South Florida. But that might not be saying much!
Hiexpress, the snook at beach access 9 are calling your name LOL
Quoting SWFLDigTek:


I thought so too, but figured maybe it was a trick of some type so decided not to say anything...
I thought so too but went for it anyhow. :)
Quoting canuckmom:
666. Chicklit . . . .hmm . . shouldn't there be some kind of ban on that number while posting? Something like the 13 on elevators!

Is there a Fred and Barney joke in there too?

So, am I getting this straight. . .the system that they thought might spin up in the BOC is no longer? Now we are eyeballing that blob off the SW coast of Florida? Just asking because my sister is vacationing in St. Petersburg. Off course, I've heard on here many times that Tampa area never gets hit, right?


Evening Canuck :)
Quoting YogiNav:
658. Baha...
If you select climatology and look at Oct-Dec for the last fifty years - 1 for TX, few for LA to FL panhandle (Oct), more down in SFL. Probable? Depends on all the normal hurricane forecast factors regularly discussed here. I wouldn't make a bet on the past when we have specific current info.
I wouldn't bet against Orca's or Drak's numbers.
Yogi


Quoting cmackla:


October land falling storms LA: source cited http://www.thecajuns.com/lahurricanes.htm

October 7-10th, 1778
October 7-10th, 1779:
October 6-7, 1837:
October 2-6th, 1867:
October 1-3rd, 1868:
October 1-4th, 1871
October 11-13, 1886:
October 16-19th, 1887:
October 1-2nd, 1893
October 27-31st, 1985 (Juan):
October 4th, 1995 (Opal):
October 5-8th, 1996 (Josephine):
Oct. 3, 2002 - Hurricane Lili

-----------------------

Only 1 in modern time hit LA after Oct 15th. Juan in 1985 hit LA. It is 2008 and if you do the math Juan was 23 years ago. 1/23 I will take those odds heading into October. Thats a 5% chance LA will see a landfall 95% we wont after Oct 15th.

Thanks for the info, guys. I'll bet the decrease in numbers after the first decade of October is linked to the increased frequency and strength of cold fronts coming down through the W Gulf area.

However, still not totally out of the woods, are we? [some people would argue that the odds are still 1/2 lol] Also with the 1/23, we were dealing at least 1/2 that time with a different set of long-term trends that lent themselves to low storm formation on the whole. So "possible but not probable" does seem to be the best description.

Unfortunately, Greater Antilles, Bahamas, S FL are still quite under the gun along with Central America. :o(
Quoting SWFLDigTek:


I thought so too, but figured maybe it was a trick of some type so decided not to say anything...


I was picking on Zoo, apparently last night she had to bail out parts of the house.. this is the first time you could really see her nick..and it was surrounded by more rain.
I love your accent StormW!
Quoting BahaHurican:


Thanks for the info, guys. I'll bet the decrease in numbers after the first decade of October is linked to the increased frequency and strength of cold fronts coming down through the W Gulf area.

However, still not totally out of the woods, are we? [some people would argue that the odds are still 1/2 lol] Also with the 1/23, we were dealing at least 1/2 that time with a different set of long-term trends that lent themselves to low storm formation on the whole. So "possible but not probable" does seem to be the best description.

Unfortunately, Greater Antilles, Bahamas, S FL are still quite under the gun along with Central America. :o(


That is exactly what I have been trying to say but the so called experts who claim to know it all try to fend off and not take into account the ones who actually live in LA/TX speak about the averages of Oct hits...yes they are knowledgeable dont get me wrong...but there moment comes in Aug/Sep
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Could it emerge somewhere else like what cristobal did?


Thing is, last week the shear in the gulf was Hurricane strength.
Quoting eddye:
watch out south fla the storm off the coast is a cat 5


havent we already determined this is a kid....????
It's cool in the mornings and evenings in Central Florida now. Soon the bird feeder will begin to populate with robins.
708. tshirtgirl75 1:51 AM GMT on September 30, 2008

You still did not get things working it appears.......wow..
Hey TampaSpin, nice to meet you!
nope I didn't oh well...and I am actually on my home computer not the shop!

I give up....but still posting:)
Quoting eddye:
watch out south fla the storm off the coast is a cat 5
hahaha
not funny
-_-
from the 8 PM:
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V STRUCTURE TO
LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ALONG WAVE AXIS...WHERE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONFIRMS WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS ALSO SHOWS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS S OF 6N...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS N OF 12N.

Quoting StormW:
691. UWalkTheMall 9:37 PM EDT on September 29, 2008
Hey Storm, it looks like we are about to get hammered over here.


Some boomers your vicinity...echo tops 35-40K


What is the average for echo tops?
Still no rain........oh well -no waves at all either - all week, Lake of Mexico. Guess I'm looking for a cold front.

I'm off - tomorrow
713. KeyWestMan 1:55 AM GMT on September 30, 2008
Hey TampaSpin, nice to meet you!


Same at ya KeyWestMan
714. tshirtgirl75 1:55 AM GMT on September 30, 2008
nope I didn't oh well...and I am actually on my home computer not the shop!

I give up....but still posting:)


I just looked at where your pics should be and nothing is there.......do they show approved from your end......you might want to delete and start over......
I see nothing approved for my photos...and I tried 3 times to get it to work. I am ok with it though.
I updated my blog this evening if anyone would like to review....Thanks.

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
718. surfmom 9:58 PM
Enjoy your day off - Work here.

Maybe the windsurfing will pick up.

At least your "lake" doesn't overflow if it rains.
What do you think the weather is going to be for Saturday in SWFL? TWC has a 30% chance for rain but the NCEP model shows heavy convection.Link
722. tshirtgirl75 2:04 AM GMT on September 30, 2008
I see nothing approved for my photos...and I tried 3 times to get it to work. I am ok with it though.



I just clicked Properties where your avatar should be and the pic you was going to post messed up and not a complete site........that's what is wrong.
Hey guys, how can I get myself on people's mailing lists on here?
I know that the season officially last through November, but are there any indications that the season may be on the wane. It appears very, very, quiet out there and the sheer in the GOM is so high and will be for some time...
727. KeyWestMan 2:09 AM GMT on September 30, 2008
Hey guys, how can I get myself on people's mailing lists on here?


What kind of mailing list are you seeking...
Quoting TampaSpin:
I updated my blog this evening if anyone would like to review....Thanks.

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link


Thanks Tampa for the update - I'm off to the Tortugas in 96 hours for two weeks and will be "cut off" from internet info. Agreed that Cape Verde is over ... I need to watch my south ... take care
Quoting TampaSpin:
727. KeyWestMan 2:09 AM GMT on September 30, 2008
Hey guys, how can I get myself on people's mailing lists on here?


What kind of mailing list are you seeking...


Anyone's practically.
Quoting jobe1004:
I know that the season officially last through November, but are there any indications that the season may be on the wane. It appears very, very, quiet out there and the sheer in the GOM is so high and will be for some time...


Ever hear of the calm before the storm?
last post before sleep tonite...what do you suggest doing to fix this? start over with uploading my pic? let me know and will do this forst thing in the morning. thx for your help:)
710 - Chicklit - The robins and their friends the bluejays are on their way south now. They are already all over Macon, Ga driving the local mocking birds nuts!! Had about 40 robins in the veggie garden today while the mocks and the blues were doing bird fights in the air! Add the flock of local crows, canada geese, and the pair of Red Tail Hawks in this neighborhood, it was quite a circus!!
Question from a newbie...where would I find info on number of historical storms hitting a certain area/state by month?
734. tshirtgirl75 2:14 AM GMT on September 30, 2008
last post before sleep tonite...what do you suggest doing to fix this? start over with uploading my pic? let me know and will do this forst thing in the morning. thx for your help:)


Yep just start over........sorry.....have a good nite sleep.
Quoting StormW:
725. UWalkTheMall 10:06 PM EDT on September 29, 2008
What do you think the weather is going to be for Saturday in SWFL? TWC has a 30% chance for rain but the NCEP model shows heavy convection.Link


Right now...MOS (Model Output Statistics) are showing 50-60%

Not good, may have to hang out inside.
731. KeyWestMan 2:12 AM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
727. KeyWestMan 2:09 AM GMT on September 30, 2008
Hey guys, how can I get myself on people's mailing lists on here?

What kind of mailing list are you seeking...



Anyone's practically.


I just added you to mine....i send out a mail list each time i update if you like..
Quoting violet312s:
Question from a newbie...where would I find info on number of historical storms hitting a certain area/state by month?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml
Gang im out for the nite.....gonna finish watching monday nite football....lol everyone have a good day and lets hope the STOCK markets do better tomorrow......don't hold your breath tho........
Me too....Good night.
G'nite Gentlemen, God bless!
746. eddye
people go to weather chat
Night Tim, Storm.
Quoting RTLSNK:
710 - Chicklit - The robins and their friends the bluejays are on their way south now. They are already all over Macon, Ga driving the local mocking birds nuts!! Had about 40 robins in the veggie garden today while the mocks and the blues were doing bird fights in the air! Add the flock of local crows, canada geese, and the pair of Red Tail Hawks in this neighborhood, it was quite a circus!!

Sweet! I'll have something here for them when they arrive. It's been so dry I have to keep filling their water dish...
Quoting Chicklit:

Sweet! I'll have something here for them when they arrive. It's been so dry I have to keep filling their water dish...
The crows are crazy down here!
You look up and there are about 200 flying over your head, and when you look at the power lines, crows line them practically from end to end.
It reminds me of Alfred Hitchocks "The Birds"!!
LOL
Blog hole?
751. BtnTx
Quoting eddye:
people go to weather chat


I went to weather chat and found myself alone and wonder if anyone ever uses it??
Last attempt.. Number 3
Full refresh
All Systems ... Atlantic
Subtropical Storm ... Laura
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC & ... GOM
CMC & ... Caribbean
CMC & ... Eastern Seaboard
CMC & ... Eastern Seaboard Part 2 & 3
CMC & ... South Eastern Florida
CMC 00Z..
Shhhhh!!!! Shuddup!

Evening all!

Quoting Orcasystems:


Ever hear of the calm before the storm?
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Shhhhh!!!! Shuddup!

Evening all!



Hiya Beach. Did you ever get your mouse?
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Shhhhh!!!! Shuddup!

Evening all!

what does that mean???
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Shhhhh!!!! Shuddup!

Evening all!



Be nice... sitting hear training a Fly squirrel how to go up a chimney.. so he is ready for his next mission. Rockey 2
I meant the calm before the storm....
how soon do I need to start worrying???

evening all!
758. BtnTx
Has anyone ever used Weather chat and if not why not>
hi storm W
760. eddye
btntx go back im there now
Mouse turned out to be "Rocky" *as Orca pointed out... the Flying Squirrel. *Fingers crossed, hoping that he did not have friends or relatives!!!! Trappped him and took him to animal refuge. *hoping he cannot find his way back!!! LOL
Quoting violet312s:


Hiya Beach. Did you ever get your mouse?
763. BtnTx
Quoting eddye:
btntx go back im there now


I don't see you???
Beach - you really had a flying squirrel in the house?

Quoting zoomiami:
Beach - you really had a flying squirrel in the house?



Not sure what I will ship her next, hmmm maybe a Lynx?
The rain band is staying strong land interaction could strengthen it a bit as well as the everglades will give it some mositure. I'd expect 40mph gusts in isolated areas. And up to 3 inches in Isolated areas up 1 one inch in areas in the line of the band.
Zoo,

Really had a Flying Squirrel move in with us! As a result I have had very little sleep! LOL It is nerve wrecking when wild critters move in.... I can only hope his family & friends are not a bunch of "free loaders" and are living here too!
Quoting zoomiami:
Beach - you really had a flying squirrel in the house?

Heard you were trying to give me a hard time -- no bailing tonight!

Did have a mess in our office this morning - still haven't figured out how the water got in. Maybe wicking through an open ac connector.

Knew it! Blame it on the Canuck! Ah-ha!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not sure what I will ship her next, hmmm maybe a Lynx?
762. looks like a disorganised psudeo Tropical cyclone
So that's what was setting off your alarm last night?

May sound silly - but I've only ever seen them as someone's pet.
No, you promised cute cuddly bears.
Zoo is in the clear... for now



Click to enlarge
How is everyone doing tonight?
Yes... once we had him/her in the trap. I thought it was a chipmunk. It was really small. Maybe 4 - 5 inches long. But the guys at the animal refuge said it was full grown. At least 1/2 the size of average squirrel. First time I have ever seen one up close. ** hmmmm Hope its the last time!!!
Quoting zoomiami:
So that's what was setting off your alarm last night?

May sound silly - but I've only ever seen them as someone's pet.
GOES-12 WV Loop with Dry Air Shaded Link
Quoting zoomiami:
No, you promised cute cuddly bears.


You want me to ship her a bear.. would cure the snake problem.. probably the gators to
Is that big yellow glob heading west or northwest? If its west - its going to be one miserable rainy day tomorrow.

G'night, ya'll. I'm headed off to finish off some laundery before hitting the hay.

Will give a shout in the morning if we see some of the S FL lost rain . . . lol
Beachfoxx - at least you didn't have a snake in your attic like my step-sister..they could hear it slithering across the floor..ewwwwwww
It is heading WNW at about 25-30 mph.
Quoting zoomiami:
Is that big yellow glob heading west or northwest? If its west - its going to be one miserable rainy day tomorrow.



actually.. I think its going east
I can only hope that all Canadians are as kind, generous and thoughtful as you are!
: )
BTW, we have black bears here! So keep yours....

My guess is the cooler weather drove "Rocky" indoors...
Quoting Orcasystems:


You want me to ship her a bear.. would cure the snake problem.. probably the gators to
No - I would bet our gators against your bears, just might take more than one!

Gators are like leftover dinosaurs, they just look you right in the eye, right up until the chomp. For big things they slyther a lot.
Quoting AllyBama:
Beachfoxx - at least you didn't have a snake in your attic like my step-sister..they could hear it slithering across the floor..ewwwwwww


Awwww now that is just going to freak her out.. big time.
Oh Ally! Not you too! Orca is always talking about wild animals... Snakes, gators, bears, spiders, fireants-------------->
I am sure that the critter came in due to the cooler weather!
Quoting AllyBama:
Beachfoxx - at least you didn't have a snake in your attic like my step-sister..they could hear it slithering across the floor..ewwwwwww
787. eddye
orcasystem it going towards miami and broward and palm beach
Quoting zoomiami:
No - I would bet our gators against your bears, just might take more than one!

Gators are like leftover dinosaurs, they just look you right in the eye, right up until the chomp. For big things they slyther a lot.


Dry land.. my money is on the grizzly
If it's any consolation I have a tree frog (regular night deck window visitor), a fox and several deer in my yard. Have a hankering for venison but cannot do anything about it. Have spotted an occasional coyote. NC. (and of course I have opossums and raccoons and a boatload of birds)
lol..Beachfoxx - she has had other critters in the attic too...hmmm, not sure if the snake took care of them..lol..j/k

BUT I do have lots of earth worms beaching themselves on my carport..lol..is there some weather tale to this phenomen..like maybe I will get some snow this year..hahahaha
I'll have you know that gators can run short bursts up 50 mph - that's why if one starts toward you safest place to go is up a tree.

I grew up a block down from a lake that had a bunch of them, so always got to see them. Had this older man who was the park ranger - hated floods. It makes them ornery - and he had to go up the trees 3 times one day.

As kids we thought it was hysterical - I'm sure he didn't think it was so funny.
Biggest critter I've ever had was a big box turtle who meandered into the bottom of our pool.

We relocated him to the canal..lol
Sister in-law sent this pic from there house in Spring Texas and this quote "I survived Ike. 13 days without power and 15 days with TV, phone, or internet. I am ready to take my pioneer clothes off for a while. Hopefully my mom was able to keep in touch with yall about me. Making a phone call out was quite difficult and often meant getting in the car and driving an ways in order to get some kind of reception. I personally did not find this whole experience any fun".
Posting from SE Texas. We are usually finished with tropical activity for this time of the year. Can we say the same again this year? I've seen post on here about the MJO and the NAO a few weeks ago. What bearing does this have with the northwestern GOM, if any? Thanks
Zoo you must have some steriod Gators cause from what I remember its only 30 mph short bursts.
Water Spout becomes Tornado over Key West today where are my Key and Key squared? Hope you guys are alright.
Could also be people telling teens stories - but even if it is 30 - thats fast enough you don't want to look them in the eye!
LOL - Guess we all have to deal with our "critters"!

I am really thankful that the crazy canuck did not try to send Bullwinkle down, to keep Rocky company! : )

All I am asking now is for the weather to stay glorious and some peaceful undisturbed sleep! LOL

Hi all, first time poster though I've been lurking for quite awhile. Just wondering what you think the chances are for a Mississippi Coast storm the rest of this season? I heard what they're saying about the TX season being over, but just curious how it was looking for us? Any chance of the activity in the GOM reaching us despite the shear? I'm in Gulfport, MS and so far we've dodged several bullets this season (Gustav came closest). I know it's purely speculation but I'm interested to hear opinions anyway. Thanks!
Popping in and out - early day tomorrow.

Night all
Quoting centex:
Sister in-law sent this pic from there house in Spring Texas and this quote "I survived Ike. 13 days without power and 15 days with TV, phone, or internet. I am ready to take my pioneer clothes off for a while. Hopefully my mom was able to keep in touch with yall about me. Making a phone call out was quite difficult and often meant getting in the car and driving an ways in order to get some kind of reception. I personally did not find this whole experience any fun".


EEwww. That sounds horrible. Did they have enough food/water to last that long? Bet one of the first things she did once power came on was to take a long hot shower.
Although grizzlies are of the order Carnivora and have the digestive system of a carnivore, they are actually omnivores since their diet consists of both plants and animals. They have been known to prey on large mammals such as moose, deer, sheep, elk, bison, caribou and even black bears.
PastelMom,

We can only hope that we don't get anything... we still have over a month to go. : )

Welcome to WU!
Night Zoo...
and again, thank you for the wonderful Google Maps! You Rock!
Quoting TheMom:
Water Spout becomes Tornado over Key West today where are my Key and Key squared? Hope you guys are alright.
still in the land of the living I didn't even see it, we have a nice little squall line coming now, I can see the lightning, just going to get the tail end I think,
brb
Quoting Orcasystems:
brb
and the blog has halted because orca went "brb"

Local news talking the storms displacing birds... Flamigos on the NWFL Panhandle! Very unusual.
oh HI mom thanks for asking, :)
The thinking with the wave in the eastern gom is to move over fla and develop there after?
I have noticed many blackbirds just recently here in South Florida...more than normal.
No its not gonna develop if you saw the no name storm of 2000 you would know that was gonna develop after it passed Florida.



This one dropped 20 inches on S Fla ^^^^
I'm noticing purple on the Key West nexrad. It doesn't look very promising for Southern Florida.
is it normal for the birds to be heading south this time of year, why I ask is, australia had a record freezing winter, and I wonder if this side of the globe will have one too?
Oh that storm was wild. So many people were caught in flooded streets, there were many flooded homes..we could have a scenerio like that now? Can't remember how strong the winds were, though.
Hey Mom & KeyWest....

Local news just showed some awesome pics of your waterspouts.... Wow! Beautiful to look at! I must admit, I love watching storms coming in off the GOM and getting the opportunity to see a water spout.... Just like I love watching the fog roll in. Its the magic of nature mixing w/ the GOM. Mother Nature's beauty and power.
Don't know a thing about birds to try and answer..only that's it is strange.
hello all does anyone know whether the models are still predicting another depression to form later on in the week??
Quoting foggymyst:
Oh that storm was wild. So many people were caught in flooded streets, there were many flooded homes..we could have a scenerio like that now? Can't remember how strong the winds were, though.


Don't remember the winds, certainly do remember the water in the road. First time ever saw people deal with the insurance from standing water vs surging water.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey Mom & KeyWest....

Local news just showed some awesome pics of your waterspouts.... Wow! Beautiful to look at! I must admit, I love watching storms coming in off the GOM and getting the opportunity to see a water spout.... Just like I love watching the fog roll in. Its the magic of nature mixing w/ the GOM. Mother Nature's beauty and power.
hi Beachfoxx, well I missed that whole show, but we get alot of water spouts here, I love to watch them,
Quoting Vortex95:
No its not gonna develop if you saw the no name storm of 2000 you would know that was gonna develop after it passed Florida.



This one dropped 20 inches on S Fla ^^^^



Had a good one in 1983 in S.W. fl. too
Quoting Beachfoxx:

Local news talking the storms displacing birds... Flamigos on the NWFL Panhandle! Very unusual.


Just saw part of the report on that up here. Evidently reports of sightings in Mississippi also.
Zoomiami-with all the water we aready have, this will not be good. Turnpike had puddle right on the road ands some road banks look like ponds. Not good at all.
PCola, yes, MS too! Was watching P'cola news station. Sure would like to see them.... A couple of years ago we had a flock of swans show up here in the bayou. Another unusual sighting. I saw them, they hung around for about a week. Then left. Hmmm, need to see what year it was & what the weather at the time was. Pictures will be dated.

Quoting PcolaDan:


Just saw part of the report on that up here. Evidently reports of sightings in Mississippi also.
well I am going to lay down for awhile, will be up for the squall line though, got about an hour or so I reckon, cheers
Good night everyone!
Beach I heard things were a little squirrely at your house last night! So you caught him - did you have the alarm company still come out?
Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "PABLO" (HIGOS)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday 30 September 2008 Tropical Storm "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now approaching Samar-Leyte Area.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 140 kms East Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Coordinates: 10.6°N, 127.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday morning:
80 kms South of Catarman, Northern Samar or
in the vicinity of Catbalogan, Western Samar
Thursday morning:
50 kms East of Calapan City
Friday morning:
in the vicinity of Iba, Zambales


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds) None Samar Provinces
Leyte
Biliran island None
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Catanduanes
Albay
Sorsogon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Masbate
Ticao Island
Burias Island
Romblon
Southern Quezon Southern Leyte
Capiz
Aklan
Northern Iloilo
Northern Negros
Northern Cebu Surigao del Norte
Siargao
Dinagat Islands


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal number two are alerted against big waves and storm surges generated by this Tropical Storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
No, we caught the "burglar" and all is well! If, Rocky did not bring family members to populate the neighborhood! : ) Hoping for a long peaceful sleep tonight! The wildlife have ruled this household for 4 nights! I need some serious sleep!

Zoo & others in so. FL, geez, hope it drys out for you soon... We need rain, but won't get any until next week at the earliest.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Beach I heard things were a little squirrely at your house last night! So you caught him - did you have the alarm company still come out?
Hey beachfox, we need rain, but so much all at once does not really do much except cause more damge than good. We shall see what actually pans outs.
Beach, Good!

Well, I just popped in to say hi! I don't think the blob in the GOM will do much. Shear is forecasted to decrease in about 12 hours, but it will only remain lower for 12-24 hours. Not much of a window for something to happen in. Goonight everyone!
Quoting Vortex95:
It is heading WNW at about 25-30 mph.
I believe you mean ENE...
831. CatastrophicDL,

Yes as long as the rest of the family has a home in another neighborhood!!!! LOL
have a good night!

830. foggymyst

I think we will be dry at least until Monday or Tuesday....


Everyone have a good night!!!!



Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #14
12:00 PM JST September 30 2008
===========================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON OVERLAND VIETNAM

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mekkhala (985 hPa) located at 17.8N 106.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

JMA Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 17.8N 103.1E - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Night beachfox, night to all.
WARNING from Florida F&WC:

Due to the frequency of human-bear encounters, the Florida Fish and Wildlife is advising hikers, hunters, fishermen, and any persons that use the out of doors in a recreational or work related function to take extra precautions while in the field.

We advise the outdoorsman to wear little noisy bells on clothing so as to give advance warning to any bears that might be close by so you don't take them by surprise.

We also advise anyone using the out-of doors to carry Pepper Spray with him in case of an encounter with a bear.

Outdoorsmen should also be on the watch for fresh bear activity, and be able to tell the difference between black bear feces and grizzly bear feces. Black bear feces is smaller and contains lots of berries and squirrel fur. Grizzly Bear scat has bells in it and smells like pepper.
Here in SWFL. We should get some good rain out of this. I've got an inch and a quarter since midnight.
838. Enola
#836 Quoting 2ifbyC:
WARNING from Florida F&WC:


...Outdoorsmen should also be on the watch for fresh bear activity...

Pretty danged funny! Thanks!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #5
15:00 PM JST September 30 2008
=======================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Higos (998 hPa) located at 12.0N 125.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in north quadrant
60 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.3N 122.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.9N 119.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 19.2N 117.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
Good morning everyone Florida is getting wet. E Cent. Fl had one of the best runs of surf in memory. Ready for some more.
good morning all

So how shall we amuse ourselves today? Anything brewing?
Quoting charlottefl:
Here in SWFL. We should get some good rain out of this. I've got an inch and a quarter since midnight.
15 miles North of Tampa and I've had nothing besides a quick sprinkle around 2 this morning.
Good morning all! I'm briefly on for like a couple of minutes, and then, I'm out the door.
Really FLFreak? Well, here in the southern keys, we easily accquired a good inch during the overnight hours, at least! By the way, a pleasure to meet you, I'm new on here. Just registered as a member yesterday.
I'm out folks, I'll be back in the P.M. Everyone have a spectacular day!!!
The Nam model has been too consistent with this

I know you guys don't like seeing this but..... Link
Does anyone know if that tropical wave could become our next depression?
Good morning...
Morning, checking in b/4 i jump out for a run in the rain, which I rather enjoy - just got to wrap the IPOD up real good. I see a small bump up in the ocean on the wave chart -- but not enough if there is not sun to go w/it.
REad all about those waves Leftover - did you get any??/ the pictures --just tug at my heart - my leash is too short and it's tied to SRQ LOL
Quoting futuremet:
The Nam model has been too consistent with this

I know you guys don't like seeing this but..... Link


Yes futuremet... NAM did quite well with this system as well as CMC.

Current NW Carib... Sat images shows the NW Carib. as starting to show some signs of life. We'll have to watch that area closely... as the low that "develops" if it does... will have the chance to affect FL as it will miss the trough pushing this current system over FL out to sea.

CMC is the E outlier in keeping a T.D. to low end T.S. system just offshore FL as it gets trapped by a building High and NAM being the W outlier.

We'll have to wait and see... as current surface data doesn't show any circulation at lower levels yet, but 06Z NAM has a low developing tomorrow AM, let's see if it's correct.

On a side note NOGAPS was developing this possible INVEST as a pretty strong system... but it has now completely backed out of it. I will wait for another 2 runs to really make sure that it has completely backed out, but it still have a weaker sheared system moving up FL in between NAM and CMC but a bit closer to the CMC model.

Finally MM5 which as also being quite consistent developing this low too is hinting towards a possible NAM scenerio. In my opinion if this low does develop and that's an IF... then I will expect unfortunately a more northerly track as it will most likely miss the trough and not be taken out to see as some models are starting to point out.
852. IKE
A Florida panhandle early October chiller>>>>

Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows 47 to 52 inland...52 to 57 near the coast.


Ahhhhh.......bad news....leaves will start falling....
Good morning everyone...

Anyone awake?
Pretty wet drive in to work this morn...
Quoting IKE:
A Florida panhandle early October chiller>>>>

Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows 47 to 52 inland...52 to 57 near the coast.


Ahhhhh.......bad news....leaves will start falling....


LOL... morning IKE. Will soon start saving on energy bills as I won't have to have this AC on. Hurray!!!
855. IKE
Looking at a shear map....the USA is safe for now...way too much shear...

Quoting WxLogic:


Yes futuremet... NAM did quite well with this system as well as CMC.

Current NW Carib... Sat images shows the NW Carib. as starting to show some signs of life. We'll have to watch that area closely... as the low that "develops" if it does... will have the chance to affect FL as it will miss the trough pushing this current system over FL out to sea.

CMC is the E outlier in keeping a T.D. to low end T.S. system just offshore FL as it gets trapped by a building High and NAM being the W outlier.

We'll have to wait and see... as current surface data doesn't show any circulation at lower levels yet, but 06Z NAM has a low developing tomorrow AM, let's see if it's correct.

On a side note NOGAPS was developing this possible INVEST as a pretty strong system... but it has now completely backed out of it. I will wait for another 2 runs to really make sure that it has completely backed out, but it still have a weaker sheared system moving up FL in between NAM and CMC but a bit closer to the CMC model.

Finally MM5 which as also being quite consistent developing this low too is hinting towards a possible NAM scenerio. In my opinion if this low does develop and that's an IF... then I will expect unfortunately a more northerly track as it will most likely miss the trough and not be taken out to see as some models are starting to point out.


The GFS model is starting to agree with the NAM scenario here.

The 06z spaghetti plots keeps the jet stream south unlike 00z and the previous runs.


I personally think the NAM has done a great job picking up systems this year.

It did a great job picking a lot of systems.

The GFS did a mediocre job....it kept forecasting unusually strong cape verde cyclones to form beyond 150 hours.....which never did form.
857. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:


LOL... morning IKE. Will soon start saving on energy bills as I won't have to have this AC on. Hurray!!!


Being that CHELCO just had a 3-step increase....an increase now...in early 2009...then in summer 2009....my AC needs a break.
855Ike -sigh of relief, Thrilled to hear about the shear - Best News all morning Ike, certainly won't find any in the paper......
Quoting IKE:
Looking at a shear map....the USA is safe for now...way too much shear...



Yeap... so far we're safe for something that develops in the GOM... but unfortunately not from something on the Carib...
I was a "mean" mom this year.... barely/if ran the AC during the day --ran it just at night-- Fans did a good job....and we're out more then in --just got to keep the computer room cool, machine weren't happy if it got too warm
Quoting futuremet:


The GFS model is starting to agree with the NAM scenario here.

The 06z spaghetti plots keeps the jet stream south unlike 00z and the previous runs.


I personally think the NAM has done a great job picking up systems this year.

It did a great job picking a lot of systems.

The GFS did a mediocre job....it kept forecasting unusually strong cape verde cyclones to form beyond 150 hours.....which never did form.


Indeed... early in the season... GFS as kicking butt, but not sure what happened as is starting to perform poorly. Hope the developers didn't got too tired from this season and are starting to fail their QA testing... Hehe.
Quoting surfmom:
I was a "mean" mom this year.... barely/if ran the AC during the day --ran it just at night-- Fans did a good job....and we're out more then in --just got to keep the computer room cool, machine weren't happy if it got too warm


LOL!!! I did almost the same.
Out for the run - BBL
What if the stock mkt went down 666 instead of 777? Looks wet outside.
Quoting leftovers:
What if the stock mkt went down 666 instead of 777? Looks wet outside.


LOL... yeah that would have been interesting.
Ohh by the way... I'm still calling for 1 more Tropical System besides the one that is crossing FL at this time. I was a week to week and a half a go letting you know my outlook and so far it has come true. The next one should be the last one to affect FL (unfortunately). Of course let's hope that I'm wrong with this one. :P
Quoting IKE:
Looking at a shear map....the USA is safe for now...way too much shear...



Not from something developing in the caribbean and riding the front up. When they do that the shear doesn't seem to affect them as bad. That could be because most of the time they are going with it at about 20-25mph so then you have to subtract foward speed out and the shear is lessened.
868. IKE
Latest 06Z NOGAPS buries a system to the west of Nicaragua....

Season is winding down for the USA...
Quoting IKE:
Latest 06Z NOGAPS buries a system to the west of Nicaragua....

Season is winding down for the USA...


Yep
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Time to do analysis.


Morning...
Quoting IKE:
Latest 06Z NOGAPS buries a system to the west of Nicaragua....

Season is winding down for the USA...


It sure is... but, look closely... you'll see a sheared system heading NE across S FL and another developing further south... which is the one near Nicaragua.
873. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL
STORM LAURA...LOCATED ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
874. IKE
Long-term discussion from Mobile,AL....

"Long term...by 12z Wednesday middle to upper trough axis moves east of the
County warning forecast area with a surface cold front stretching from the eastern Florida Panhandle
to just south of Brownville Texas. Latest GFS and and European model (ecmwf) files
suggest reinforcing cold air advection will continue across the central Gulf states
through Thursday followed by series of weak short wave impulses
tracking eastward across the middle section of the country Sat through
early next week. The broad middle to upper trough lifts slowly northward
Friday through Sat. With this pattern expect a rather dry scenario for
much of the central Gulf Coast region through Sat followed by slight
chance probability of precipitation especially near the coast and offshore late Sat into
sun. Rain chances increased late Sun afternoon and Sunday night in
response to increased low level moisture from the east and south and
better dynamical lift approaching from the west. By late sun a much
stronger system moves into the Central Plains giving way to deepen
moisture return and rain chances early next week. Do believe we will
see fairly decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms with this
developing system starting near the coast late Monday and spreading
north and west through midweek. Still a little far out in time to
pinpoint the exact timing with this precipitation early next week. Will
continue to use the current 00z mex guidance for temperatures in the
extended periods."
Interesting:



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2008


GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL US AND MOST OF THE GULF W
OF 84W WITH A COMPLICATED SYSTEM OVER THE E GULF CONSISTING OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR
26N81W TO A 1011 MB LOW N OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 24N87W THEN S OVER
THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 19N93W.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN AND WILL BE
MOVING N ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DRAWING MOIST UPPER
FLOW N OVER THE AREA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM N FLORIDA NEAR
30N84W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N87W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE W
COAST OF THE YUCATAN E OF 94W. THE GULF W OF 90W IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TO CREATE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST
FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO LA PESCA MEXICO.
Good morning!
878. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
Photobucket


That cold front over Texas and Arkansas will sweep SE and take that low across Florida and out into the Atlantic.
good morning gang, I hope everyone is well today.

Hey Vort! .. am I reading your map right.. that it is current? I ask, because I just scoped out the sat loops and the low in your map does not show any convection in the vapor loop. There was a blob moving iff Yucatan but it literally disappeared in 3.5 hours. There may well be a "low" there, but no associated cinvection.. odd.. like this whole season..

Hey Ike! logic! Senior Chief! Alley!
good morning Cotilian.. missed you in my greetings!
Hey Vort! .. am I reading your map right.. that it is current?


That's as current as there is available....4:35am eastern.
Quoting indianrivguy:
good morning gang, I hope everyone is well today.

Hey Vort! .. am I reading your map right.. that it is current? I ask, because I just scoped out the sat loops and the low in your map does not show any convection in the vapor loop. There was a blob moving iff Yucatan but it literally disappeared in 3.5 hours. There may well be a "low" there, but no associated cinvection.. odd.. like this whole season..

Hey Ike! logic! Senior Chief! Alley!


Hi Indi... Cot..

There's a developing low N of Yucatan... you can see it turning in the RGB Sat images... but SFC observation do support such low. This low seems to have a pressure of 1013MB and another weak low on SW FL connecting to the one N of Yucatan.
Quoting WxLogic:


Hi Indi... Cot..

There's a developing low N of Yucatan... you can see it turning in the RGB Sat images... but SFC observation do support such low. This low seems to have a pressure of 1013MB and another weak low on SW FL connecting to the one N of Yucatan.


So low it's almost high...

Seems from the 5 day cone that we're going to get Laura in her extratropical form. Seems to be one of those years when we're a magnet for remnants.
Morning Storm!
Load up the loop and switch on the NWS fronts button.

Shows the situation in the Gulf and Yucatan area well.

Quoting StormW:
879. indianrivguy 8:01 AM EDT on September 30, 2008
good morning gang, I hope everyone is well today.

Hey Vort! .. am I reading your map right.. that it is current? I ask, because I just scoped out the sat loops and the low in your map does not show any convection in the vapor loop. There was a blob moving iff Yucatan but it literally disappeared in 3.5 hours. There may well be a "low" there, but no associated cinvection.. odd.. like this whole season..

Hey Ike! logic! Senior Chief! Alley!


Hey!


Do you walk in with this theme tune everytime then, 'Senior Chief'? ;)

Link
g'day everyone,
2ifbyc that was funny, I thought that was real for min and did a double take going Okeechoobee for a few days, and will be out in the bush, looks like it is going to be a wet ride up from here, cheers :)
Quoting StormW:
Just to kick something around, since it is such a long range forecast and we know how that goes, the CFS model shows from Jan-May, the A/B high averaging 1022-1024 mb.

Sheesh!


Strong enough High to kick Carib... disturbance up the GOM.

Hehe... forgot to add... that in turn, would mean a less dry Winter for us in the Gulf states.
Quoting Cotillion:


Do you walk in with this theme tune everytime then, 'Senior Chief'? ;)

Link


LOL Morning Cotillion!

Actually, Halo would be Master Chief, which I think would be Dr. Jeff. :o}
Good morning WUBA (sounding like Robin Williams)
Wow - life is good - got up this morning , sun shinning, cool temps, and wx is the only topic here - life is right
Quoting StormW:
Just to kick something around, since it is such a long range forecast and we know how that goes, the CFS model shows from Jan-May, the A/B high averaging 1022-1024 mb.

Sheesh!


Indicative of a possible El Nino.
Morning All.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Morning All.


Good morning!

Just hanging out long enough to hear Storms take on that, then gotta get some work done.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Good morning!

Just hanging out long enough to hear Storms take on that, then gotta get some work done.


Likewise.

Looking forward to the cooler weather here this week in SEFL.
Quoting 2ifbyC:
WARNING from Florida F&WC:

Due to the frequency of human-bear encounters, the Florida Fish and Wildlife is advising hikers, hunters, fishermen, and any persons that use the out of doors in a recreational or work related function to take extra precautions while in the field.

We advise the outdoorsman to wear little noisy bells on clothing so as to give advance warning to any bears that might be close by so you don't take them by surprise.

We also advise anyone using the out-of doors to carry Pepper Spray with him in case of an encounter with a bear.

Outdoorsmen should also be on the watch for fresh bear activity, and be able to tell the difference between black bear feces and grizzly bear feces. Black bear feces is smaller and contains lots of berries and squirrel fur. Grizzly Bear scat has bells in it and smells like pepper.

Why would the Florida fish & game even mention a grizzly? I think you would have a better chance of getting a ride on the space shuttle before you would see grizzly scat in Florida.
GM,all,cool cloudy day here in the northeast,with more rain tomorrow and trees are starting to turn,our tropical season is done up here.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Time to do analysis.


time for a run and a cup of coffee you mean...
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Likewise.

Looking forward to the cooler weather here this week in SEFL.


Yeah, wouldn't that be nice. Thinkin' that this wet mess will dry up in a day or so.

You in PBGardens? I'm in Highlands, Co. (lake placid, sebring area). Go over there sometimes for the Airboat & Buggy Show and to PSL to visit friends.
i new IKE was going to be the last name storm too make land fall in TX or any where a long the gulf coast and look i was right
Quoting usa777:

Why would the Florida fish & game even mention a grizzly? I think you would have a better chance of getting a ride on the space shuttle before you would see grizzly scat in Florida.


Griz was native throughout all N. America until we exterpated it in most places. Even into Mexico. FL did have griz at one time. That said, I am a bit surprised to think that a griz would cross all those highways, developments, etc. to get to FL from the northern tier of states. Not impossible but surprising.
Good Morning Folks.......Been away for a while and distracted by economic/political issues but was jolted back to tropical reality this morning when I heard on NPR that they found two more bodies in debris around Galveston...I think that winter/cold fronts/frontal precipitation are quickly approaching and I don't think that tropical storm conditions will last much longer IMHO......
Quoting usa777:

Why would the Florida fish & game even mention a grizzly? I think you would have a better chance of getting a ride on the space shuttle before you would see grizzly scat in Florida.


Ha, Ha, I was reading that last night, shaking my head and going "what the ..." till I got to the last line...cute.
909. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks.......Been away for a while and distracted by economic/political issues but was jolted back to tropical reality this morning when I heard on NPR that they found two more bodies in debris around Galveston...I think that winter/cold fronts/frontal precipitation are quickly approaching and I don't think that tropical storm conditions will last much longer IMHO......


Big pool of cool/dry air heading into the SE USA.

Ain't nothing coming up this way anytime soon.

Enjoy the great fall weather!
wont be long now be for we start talking about snow
911. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
wont be long now be for we start talking about snow


Yup....
Quoting usa777:

Why would the Florida fish & game even mention a grizzly? I think you would have a better chance of getting a ride on the space shuttle before you would see grizzly scat in Florida.


bro, I think this was a joke, not to be taken seriously. The last line...

Grizzly Bear scat has bells in it and smells like pepper
Quoting IKE:


Big pool of cool/dry air heading into the SE USA.

Ain't nothing coming up this way anytime soon.

Enjoy the great fall weather!


Hey Ike,

Read your earlier post about the front, have been watching that, the dry air flowing into the carib and looking at TPW forcast, feeling a little more optimistic about things drying up a bit. Models seem to be playing catch-up
to the real time data. (IMO)
Grizzly Bear scat has bells in it and smells like pepper

Like the bells of the people wearing them as to avoid surprising the bear?

and it takes some kind of true outdoorsman to go from pile to pile of scat smalling for pepper, eh?

LOL!

morning folks!
Quoting IKE:


Big pool of cool/dry air heading into the SE USA.

Ain't nothing coming up this way anytime soon.

Enjoy the great fall weather!


Hey Ike....The weather has been amazingly nice and pleasant up here in North Florida...Just Beautiful...
Quoting StormW:
896. TheCaneWhisperer 8:42 AM EDT on September 30, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Just to kick something around, since it is such a long range forecast and we know how that goes, the CFS model shows from Jan-May, the A/B high averaging 1022-1024 mb.

Sheesh!


Indicative of a possible El Nino.


No...basically same conditions for the Atlantic basin as this season...weaker A/B high...lets heat build, less upwelling off African coast, lower than avg MSLP, less SAL, etc. That's if the forecast is correct and holds.


See, that is why I wait around for your analysis. Thanks for the info.
Also, it didn't "cool down" up here until towards the end of October for the past few years so it's also nice to be able to save some money and turn off the air conditioner the past few weeks...........
Could make for some interesting sea temps and shear profiles if the forecast holds Storm W
Morning All:
Nice rainy day here in Melbourne but more cool weather on the way. Believe the consensus is that we are done with the tropical weather. Yeah - enough other stuff to concentrate on right now.
Quoting IKE:


Big pool of cool/dry air heading into the SE USA.

Ain't nothing coming up this way anytime soon.

Enjoy the great fall weather!



Bloggers Retreat???????
GOM IR Loop Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
wont be long now be for we start talking about snow


maybe by January?
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours Link
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also, it didn't "cool down" up here until towards the end of October for the past few years so it's also nice to be able to save some money and turn off the air conditioner the past few weeks...........


Haven't turned the AC off yet, but have noticed it kicking in a lot less the past couple weeks. Love that 'cause Aug & Sept are the worst for us power wise.

We'll know the season is offically over whe IKE changes the lyrics on his blog! :o)

Must stop the chat and work now...
Have a great day everyone!
-rob
I see the NHC are predicting Laura will arrive here in Scotland on Sunday with sustained winds of 50 knots.

I think when a storm goes extratropical and heads towards the 'wrong' side of the Atlantic, they basically lose interest in it and pick numbers out of the air.

I can tell you from personal experience, that these systems only very rarely maintain tropical storm force winds when they arrive here. Usually, they're no more than a balmy breeze.
GOES-12 WV loop ,with Dry Air Shaded Link
LOL on the Grizz scat. Can't believe folks bit on that old hook. Usually posted under Yellowstone or Alaskan header.
922. NEwxguy 6:21 AM PDT on September 30, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
wont be long now be for we start talking about snow


maybe by January?



try more like late oct and 1st part of nov
Quoting NEwxguy:


maybe by January?


God I hope no snow anytime soon...

Snow is one thing I CAN wait for.
nice wave coming off of africa, but ofcourse, it will die! uhh, how boring
Blog Update
All Systems ... Atlantic
Subtropical Storm ... Laura
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC & ... Florida Part 1
CMC & ... Caribbean
CMC & ... Florida Part 2 & more
CMC & ... Possible sniff of things to come
CMC 00Z..
Quoting conchygirl:
Morning All:
Nice rainy day here in Melbourne but more cool weather on the way. Believe the consensus is that we are done with the tropical weather. Yeah - enough other stuff to concentrate on right now.


Not quite done.....yet despite what you may hear.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season is done for sure
Quoting npenta519:


God I hope no snow anytime soon...

Snow is one thing I CAN wait for.


me too,but you'll most likely get some before me.
Quoting NEwxguy:


me too,but you'll most likely get some before me.


Thats a distinct possibility.

However I'm moving to Central MA in 2 weeks, so who knows??
Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic both had 12 names storms this year
Ok... Breaking News!!!... j/k.

Well, there seems to be indication based on surface analasys that a 1012MB low is starting to develop 10 to 20 NM N of Honduras or 100N or so E of Belize... for those Geographically challenged folks... hehe.

Let see if this low persists as NAM, CMC, and NOGAPS are clearly indicating.
Quoting LakeShadow:
Grizzly Bear scat has bells in it and smells like pepper

Like the bells of the people wearing them as to avoid surprising the bear?

and it takes some kind of true outdoorsman to go from pile to pile of scat smalling for pepper, eh?

LOL!

morning folks!

lol...Im an idiot. I didnt read that close enough. Must be all that beer still in my blood from monday night football.
Quoting WxLogic:
Ok... Breaking News!!!... j/k.

Well, there seems to be indication based on surface analasys that a 1012MB low is starting to develop 10 to 20 NM N of Honduras or 100N or so E of Belize... for those Geographically challenged folks... hehe.

Let see if this low persists as NAM, CMC, and NOGAPS are clearly indicating.


Laura looks more like Vince with a eye


Vince






Laura






dont they both look a like right now???
Quoting NEwxguy:


maybe by January?


that's mighty optimistic, there!
Quoting LakeShadow:


that's mighty optimistic, there!


lol,wishful thinking,but not very realistic
re: 944. sebastianflorida


leave taz alone if you don't like to read his stuff, than don't read it

Week 2 Outlook – Valid: October 7 - 13, 2008
Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.
Issued: 9/29
1. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for parts of the eastern Pacific, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. The favorable phase of the
MJO increases the threat for tropical development during the period. Confidence: Moderate
2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for parts of the eastern Pacific, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. The
enhanced phase of the MJO is expected to result in wet conditions during the period. Confidence: Moderate
3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the equatorial Indian Ocean. The enhanced phase of the MJO is expected to increase rainfall in
this region during the period. Confidence: Moderate
4. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the Philippines and parts of the western Pacific. The suppressed phase of the MJO is
expected to result in dry conditions during the period. Confidence: Moderate
SEE TEXT NOTATION: Conditions are expected to begin to become more favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal. The month of October is a
period when the threat of tropical cyclone activity increases climatologically and continued propagation of the MJO and its associated changes to the atmospheric
circulation further increase this threat. At the current time, Week 3 appears to be the most likely period for development.
Quoting LakeShadow:


that's mighty optimistic, there!


actually like to see some for christmas
Quoting NEwxguy:


lol,wishful thinking,but not very realistic


More like mid-late November.
Quoting LakeShadow:


More like mid-late November.


well thats when you start your lake effect snows isn't it?
Quoting NEwxguy:


actually like to see some for christmas


Not unheard of.

But yeah, would be nice and pretty. The first snowfall is all I can take. It looks so white and peaceful.

And then I wake up and have to drive with 1400 other people who have forgotten what NE in winter is like. Then I'm just wishing for April to come.
Shear naturally increases with the troughs coming down. The season doesn't wind down for the U.S.A because those same troughs are pulling the storms that form in the Caribbean poleward were they typically accelerate eastward.
Quoting sebastianflorida:
And I need your permission to comment on retarded posts?


If you want to have the ability to comment, you might want to be a bit more polite about it. Right now you are about one away from me not being able to see them.
Quoting sebastianflorida:
It has been a long season of seeing these idiotic posts from Taz, I try to ignore, but I guess I am drawn to them in amazement of how bad someone can be with spelling and grammar.
When English is not your native language, there are more challenges.
Quoting sebastianflorida:
It has been a long season of seeing these idiotic posts from Taz, I try to ignore, but I guess I am drawn to them in amazement of how bad someone can be with spelling and grammar.


then put him on ignore.. problem solved.
I said all I have to say about this subject. In fact, the season of storms is over! I must go and concentrate on other things for the next 10 months. BYE ALL
Quoting Orcasystems:


If you want to have the ability to comment, you might want to be a bit more polite about it. Right now you are about one away from me not being able to see them.


He's already on my list,please don't quote him
Quoting NEwxguy:


well thats when you start your lake effect snows isn't it?


umm...late October- Mid November on that. 2 Years ago the first LES event was Oct 12th...
post 953 is ban worthy, IMO
Quoting LakeShadow:


umm...late October- Mid November on that. 2 Years ago the first LES event was Oct 12th...


I am praying for you lake..I have been asking for first week of October... I know how much you like the math :)
Quoting LakeShadow:
post 953 is ban worthy, IMO


Might be.. don't know.. can't see it :)
We don't typically have snow till January, and we haven't had a real good snowfall in a few years. Warming and all that!

That said, instead of a lot of snow falling, we have it in weird periods. Just the other year, we had snow in late April. That was peculiar.
Quoting npenta519:


Not unheard of.

But yeah, would be nice and pretty. The first snowfall is all I can take. It looks so white and peaceful.

And then I wake up and have to drive with 1400 other people who have forgotten what NE in winter is like. Then I'm just wishing for April to come.


Ahh... winter driving short term memory! We suffer from that here in Buffalo. We can drive in 8 inches of snow and be ok. Its that 1st half inch that causes all the spin-offs and chain reation crashes on the freeway... cars in ditches all over the place...most of them 4x4 SUV's.
Quoting LakeShadow:


Ahh... winter driving short term memory! We suffer from that here in Buffalo. We can drive in 8 inches of snow and be ok. Its that 1st half inch that causes all the spin-offs and chain reation crashes on the freeway... cars in ditches all over the place...most of them 4x4 SUV's.


Got a job only 4 miles from home,don't have to deal with that too much any more.
Yes, winter is the time it's worthwhile to be living in the tropics! Here in Central Florida we get a few cold fronts, but generally, weather is mild and people-perfect.
new blog
Quoting NEwxguy:


Got a job only 4 miles from home,don't have to deal with that too much any more.


Lucky lucky. I drive all over hell and back, so yeah, I get it all the time. Accidents, spinouts, emergency personnel...I drive over a large area of MA and most of NH including the Lakes Region. It's so aggravating for those first few storms.
Quoting npenta519:


Not unheard of.

But yeah, would be nice and pretty. The first snowfall is all I can take. It looks so white and peaceful.

And then I wake up and have to drive with 1400 other people who have forgotten what NE in winter is like. Then I'm just wishing for April to come.


I wouldn't mind seeing more of this; last winter was amazing with the number of record/heavy snowfalls, although they all melted away in a few days (a few days after the following, it was 75 degrees with a record tornado outbreak):

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -90.37 Elev: 568
Last Update on Feb 1, 1:51 am CDT
Heavy Thunderstorm Snow Fog
Temperature: 23°F (-5°C)
Humidity: 85 %
Wind Speed: NW 13 MPH
Barometer: 29.82" (1011.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 19°F (-7°C)
Wind Chill: 11°F (-12°C)
Visibility: 0.25 mi.

Also in March:

Cahokia / St. Louis, St. Louis Downtown Airport
Lat: 38.58 Lon: -90.15 Elev: 413
Last Update on Mar 4, 8:53 am CDT
Thunderstorm in Vicinity Heavy Snow Freezing Fog
Temperature: 26°F (-3°C)
Humidity: 88 %
Wind Speed: N 16 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 29.82" (1010.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 23°F (-5°C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi.
Quoting LakeShadow:


Ahh... winter driving short term memory! We suffer from that here in Buffalo. We can drive in 8 inches of snow and be ok. Its that 1st half inch that causes all the spin-offs and chain reation crashes on the freeway... cars in ditches all over the place...most of them 4x4 SUV's.


the good news is we play you in Toronto this year.. no friggen blizzards there anyway. :)

cmon cooler weather.
Last year the first Snow was Nov 6th. Last snow of the year was March 20th. Only 4.5 months...not bad. Word has it that this year will be colder, though. last winter was rather mild with a lot of mid-winter thaws. I'm going to bet on snow from Oct - April this year. Mainly because Murphy and his laws dont like me and being pregnant and then soon lugging around an infant, its gonna be a brutal winter for sure.