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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Kyle intensifies, heads north towards the Maine/Canada border

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on September 26, 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle continues chugging northwards towards Nova Scotia, Canada. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some, and the Hurricane Hunters measured surface winds near 55 mph early this morning. However, Kyle is experiencing wind shear of 15-20 knots that is keeping any heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on its west side. Unless the shear relaxes, allowing Kyle's heavy thunderstorms to wrap all the way around the center, intensification into a hurricane will be difficult.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Kyle.

The forecast
Wind shear is forecast to drop slightly over the next 24 hours, to 10-20 knots. This gives Kyle a short window of time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. By Saturday afternoon, wind shear is forecast to increase to 25-35 knots, and the sea surface temperatures plunge from 26°C to 15°C. Kyle should weaken by 10-20 mph before landfall. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model has Kyle hitting the Maine/New Brunswick border as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The HWRF has the same landfall location, but foresees only 50 mph winds. A landfall in this region as a Category 1 hurricane would likely generate a storm surge in the 3-5 foot range, according to NOAA's SLOSH model. A more easterly landfall in Nova Scotia is also a good possibility, as foreseen by some of the other reliable computer models. My best guess is a landfall in western Nova Scotia as a tropical storm with 50-60 mph winds. The west side of Kyle will remain relatively thunderstorm-free at landfall, due to strong upper-level winds from the west creating high wind shear. According to the forecast wind radius from NHC, tropical storm force winds of 39 mph and higher will miss Massachusetts, but may affect eastern Maine. Tropical storm force winds are also expected to miss Bermuda. (Use the wundermap with "wind radius" turned on to see the expected radius of tropical storm force winds).

Kyle's main threat is heavy rain. Kyle's rains will primarily affect Nova Scotia and New Brunswick at landfall on Monday morning. However, Kyle should pull copious amounts of tropical moisture and the remains of the unnamed storm that hit South Carolina last night northwards into Canada and northern New England. This will create potential serious flooding problems early next week in the region. NOAA is forecasting up to eight inches of rain could fall in New England over the next five days (Figure 2). The UKMET model is forecasting that Kyle will stall after landfall. If this forecast verifies, there is the possibility that extremely heavy rains in excess of twelve inches will fall over northern New England, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia next week. Near-record flooding with heavy damage would likely result. However, the other models do not go along with this scenario, and rain amounts in the 6-8 inch range are more likely for northern New England, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period ending 8 am Wednesday 10/1/08. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Unnamed storm hits South Carolina
The unnamed storm that moved ashore over South Carolina/North Carolina last night continues to bring heavy rain and strong winds all along the eastern U.S. The storm generated one tornado, a twister that touched down near Onslow Beach, NC at 8:15 pm EDT Thursday. No damage was reported. The storm dumped 4.16" of rain in Wilmington, NC, setting a new daily rainfall record for that city. A storm surge of four feet was observed in Carteret County, NC, and the road to the North Carolina Outer Banks was flooded by the ocean at several points during the storm. Evidence suggests the storm was probably subtropical or tropical at landfall, and could have received the name Laura. However, one of the criteria for getting a name is that a storm must persist as a subtropical or tropical storm for a "reasonable period of time". This season, it seems that NHC has been waiting longer than in the recent past (the 1990s and 2000s) to give storms names. However, in the 1970s and 1980s, a "reasonable period of time" was usually judged to be a day or longer. I doubt that yesterday's storm would have gotten a name during Nell Frank's tenure as director of NHC from 1974-1987. Thus, yesterday's decision not to name this storm is probably consistent with how things would have been done back in that era. There will always be a grey area in this regard, and NHC will inevitably get complaints about decisions to name or not name storms. If they had named this system Laura, they would have gotten complaints that are too quick to give names to storms that do not deserve them, and thus are artificially inflating tropical storm statistics to make it appear that global warming is increasing the number of tropical storms. Last night's unnamed storm fell solidly in this grey area, and there is no clear-cut "right" answer as to whether the storm deserved a name or not.

Middle Atlantic disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic, near 12N 40W, has a modest region of heavy thunderstorms. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated surface circulation and top winds in the 20-30 mph range. Wind shear is 10-20 knots, but is expected to increase to 20-30 knots Saturday and increase further on Sunday, which should destroy the struggling circulation. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico, just west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Visible satellite images show a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms moving east-southeast, towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the region, which is marginal for development. The system should move ashore over the Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday before development into a tropical depression can occur. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Early next week, we will have to watch the waters on either side of the Yucatan for possible development.

The Hurricane Ike relief effort continues
Thanks to everyone who has contributed to the portlight.org charity! We raised enough money to send another truck with relief supplies to Winnie and Bridge City, Texas, where traditional relief efforts have fallen short. Wunderground member Presslord (AKA Paul Timmons, Jr.), who is coordinating this effort, has announced that if we raise an additional $10,000 mark, he will pose in a dress for our wunderphoto gallery. We're up to $2500 so far.


Figure 3. The town of Bridge City was inundated with a massive storm surge even though it was far displaced from Ike's landfall point. This speaks to just how massive Ike was. The people of Bridge City, Winnie, and other small towns in Ike's path will need help for a long time to come: www.portlight.org. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

You can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters
My Backyard :-(
My Backyard :-(
A little flooding from our N'easter. 6:10pm 9/25
Ocean City Inlet Sept 2008 Nor Easter
Ocean City Inlet Sept 2008 Nor Easter

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr M.
Lots of action!
3. gonesail 11:15 AM EDT on September 26, 2008

When are you guys going to stop filling up our ignore list?
Quoting gonesail:
well the 10 days of inactivity are over .. and no hurricanes are even on the horizon. when are you guys gonna stop with the gloom and doom? once again you missed the mark.

What was the mark and how do you define missing?
Thanks Dr. Masters, things to watch,but lots of shear out there.
Thanks Doc, I appreciate your work!
65 days, 13 hours, 40 minutes and it's over.
If there is good to be said about this unnamed storm, it is that rain is coming to parched regions:

it cannot come too soon Ike...
Here's a number to chew on before noon..!

$25,752.00

A wunderful one at that.
Quoting Patrap:
Here's a number to chew on before noon..!

$25,752.00

A wunderful one at that.

Wow...this is wunderful news indeed, Patrap!
Quoting IKE:
65 days, 13 hours, 40 minutes and it's over.


How many GFS runs are left Mr.Ike?
dr masters said there could be development next week:
Early next week, we will have to watch the waters on either side of the Yucatan for possible development.
Quoting NEwxguy:
3. gonesail 11:15 AM EDT on September 26, 2008

When are you guys going to stop filling up our ignore list?

You know I always assumed that these idiots were kids having some fun with us old guys. I must have been wrong since school is in right now. So sad but I can picture it now: Gonesail sitting in his cubicle at the telemarketing company. In between spam phone calls to you and me he is trying to figure out his next screen name. Wondering why its so hard to get his GED. Cursing himself for wearing a dark shirt that shows his dandruff and wondering why the girl at the bar hasn't called him back yet. Hmmmm he pauses, maybe this time she will answer if I hit *67 first......
Thanks Dr. Masters. Watch out NE as it looks like you are in the center of the forecast rain.
Quoting sporteguy03:


How many GFS runs are left Mr.Ike?

262?
GOM IR Loop Link
Quoting JupiterFL:

You know I always assumed that these idiots were kids having some fun with us old guys. I must have been wrong since school is in right now. So sad but I can picture it now: Gonesail sitting in his cubicle at the telemarketing company. In between spam phone calls to you and me he is trying to figure out his next screen name. Wondering why its so hard to get his GED. Cursing himself for wearing a dark shirt that shows his dandruff and wondering why the girl at the bar hasn't called him back yet. Hmmmm he pauses, maybe this time she will answer if I hit *67 first......



Now thats funny! Hardcore...but funny!
There is no way the system that entered North Carolina and South Carolina was a Nor'easter.
I live in Raleigh and the tropical feel this morning when I left for work was testament to that. But I feel it was subtropical at best. But that is my opinion, I feel I agree with Mr. Masters that it fell in that gray area of naming or not naming the system. But loved the structure of it yesterday afternoon with the clear eye it formed for about 2 hours.
I'm sorry Dr. Masters not Mr. Masters
Thanks for the update, Doctor.
26. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


How many GFS runs are left Mr.Ike?


263
Quoting TPanther:
I'm sorry Dr. Masters not Mr. Masters

He actually prefers us to call him just Master.
14. cchsweatherman 3:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2008

Thanks for the graphics!
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Thanks Dr. Masters. Watch out NE as it looks like you are in the center of the forecast rain.


yeh,looks like a steady stream of tropical moisture,the good news is that its been very dry for several weeks,so unless it stalls over us,flooding shouldn't be too serious.
Always love your graphics cch.

You really see Kyle going that far west, or just "general motion?"
Location, Location, Location

The Carolina Storm again shows that it is not just how close you are to the center of the storm, but what quadrant you are in.

It was nice to be on the south side of the storm here in Charleston, and my best to those north of us.
hello everyone
unnamed storm/94l/ carolina storm...whatever you want to call it looks nice on radar
33. IKE
Quoting IKE:


263


Actually it is 262 including this one.
Thats the most "tropical" looking Nor'easter I've ever seen. Radar presentation says it all.
Quoting gonesail:
well the 10 days of inactivity are over .. and no hurricanes are even on the horizon. when are you guys gonna stop with the gloom and doom? once again you missed the mark.
THEY LOVE DOOM AND GLOOM!
Is it weakening after landfall? Baroclinically driven systems don't, but landfalling tropical systems do.
Quoting NEwxguy:


yeh,looks like a steady stream of tropical moisture,the good news is that its been very dry for several weeks,so unless it stalls over us,flooding shouldn't be too serious.


Thats the same in central PA.
18. Jupiter: Funny yet Sad but probably True.

Heavy Rain up here from a storm way down in the Carols...Thankful it's not snow season yet. Thanks Dr. M and to all that are helping those in need.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
hello everyone
unnamed storm/94l/ carolina storm...whatever you want to call it looks nice on radar

The models don't show it moving much more to the West. Any thoughts?

(Really nice graphic!)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Is it weakening after landfall? Baroclinically driven systems don't, but landfalling tropical systems do.


Fay? ;)
I found this for newbies like me and thought I would share in case anyone is interested.

Free Intro Met college level course from MIT
42. IKE
12Z GFS at 60 hours shows Kyle off of the New England coast and the Yucatan disturbance...

A Question, if you please

When a satellite takes a "picture" of a storm, it is not always directly above the storm - right?

So... how does the satellite image compensate for the angle of the view? Is it done by a program, or should we account for that when we look at satellite images?

I know it sounds basic, but sometimes these questions hit me out of the blue. One of the nice things about autumn coming is that I will have all winter to study the tutorials recommended on this blog

Thanking you in advance
From 94L and the influx of moisture being driven up the conveyor belt by Kyle, we have received 3.62 inches of rain so far. The heaviest is suppose to be tonight into early tomorrow
Quoting Seastep:


Fay? ;)



Sigh.....LOL
Still only 5 hurricanes this season, well below pre-season predictions. This will be 3 years in a row of the forecasters predicting worse seasons than we have, 2006, 2007 and now 2008. Is it a coincidence that Gore's movie came out just before the 2006 season?

Don't give in to the fear mongering, people.

47. IKE
Quoting chilliam:
Still only 5 hurricanes this season, well below pre-season predictions. This will be 3 years in a row of the forecasters predicting worse seasons than we have, 2006, 2007 and now 2008. Is it a coincidence that Gore's movie came out just before the 2006 season?

Don't give in to the fear mongering, people.



65 days left...already at 11 named systems...5 canes...3 major....so far.
wow,my ignore is getting heavy use this morning!
Don't give in to the fear mongering, people.



I'm trying not too.... But, but, but, it's difficult.

Oh no! I'm sucumbing!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Don't give in to the fear mongering, people.



I'm trying not too.... But, but, but, it's difficult.

Oh no! I'm sucumbing!


give in to the darkside!!!
My eyes are on the GOM Disturbance. Any ideas on movement?
Quoting chilliam:
Still only 5 hurricanes this season, well below pre-season predictions. This will be 3 years in a row of the forecasters predicting worse seasons than we have, 2006, 2007 and now 2008. Is it a coincidence that Gore's movie came out just before the 2006 season?

Don't give in to the fear mongering, people.





I think everybody knows that there is no connection between global warming and the number of storms, only the intensity of the strongest storms (which is easily demonstrated via maximum potential intensity which is very closely related to SST). In fact, I am thinking that global warming may be masking the negative phase of the AMO (in terms of SSTs - the atmospheric conditions however are following suit; the AMO is a lot more than just SSTs; for example, why all the wind shear? Negative AMO = high shear). Thus the overpredictions (though note how destructive this year has been; last year also had two Cat 5s).
53. IKE
Quoting UWalkTheMall:
My eyes are on the GOM Disturbance. Any ideas on movement?


An area of disturbed weather located in the Bay of Campeche is
moving slowly eastward toward the Yucatan Peninsula. There are some
signs of organization...but this system is expected to move inland
over the western Yucatan before any significant development can
occur. However...the system could still bring heavy rains to
portions southern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next
couple of days.
Quoting NEwxguy:
wow,my ignore is getting heavy use this morning!
I'm glads Ike has a countdown to the end of the season starting to worry about getting banned from my iggy list for overuse...

How is your Dad doing?
52. MichaelSTL
GW posts are only allowed on blogs where Dr Master's started it, may only last for a maximum of 15 posts or until other bloggers threaten destruction of those debateing and must incclude at lest 1 referance to Cows being the culprit... That is all
Quoting gonesail:
well the 10 days of inactivity are over .. and no hurricanes are even on the horizon. when are you guys gonna stop with the gloom and doom? once again you missed the mark.


Some people don't belong in civilized society. How bout a Fresca?
Quoting KEHCharleston:
A Question, if you please

When a satellite takes a "picture" of a storm, it is not always directly above the storm - right?

So... how does the satellite image compensate for the angle of the view? Is it done by a program, or should we account for that when we look at satellite images?

I know it sounds basic, but sometimes these questions hit me out of the blue. One of the nice things about autumn coming is that I will have all winter to study the tutorials recommended on this blog

Thanking you in advance


The satellite itself sees the Earth in the same way an astronaut would; some sites convert the images into a different projection to make the images appear to be flat and viewed from directly above, while others don't; for example, the images here.
Quoting TheMom:
I'm glads Ike has a countdown to the end of the season starting to worry about getting banned from my iggy list for overuse...

How is your Dad doing?


At the end of the season,we get them jumping in and telling us how we messed up the forecast again.

My dad is doing fair,the stroke took a lot out of him,definitely not him anymore,thanks for asking.
59. IKE
Stock market down 87 points...economy is tanking big-time...

Now...back to the tropics.....

Quoting NEwxguy:


At the end of the season,we get them jumping in and telling us how we messed up the forecast again.

My dad is doing fair,the stroke took a lot out of him,definitely not him anymore,thanks for asking.
He has been in our thoughts and is on my parents church prayer list (even thought I didn't know his name he is N. E. Patriot's Dad ;-)
and darn I thought I could start over and empty it out at the end of the season...


This is a cloud pattern analysis:

I see that the flow northeast of Kyle is backing SE to NW suggesting that the high is either moving west or strengthening northeast of Kyle. There is a band of clouds north of Bermuda orienated SE to NW and is backing westward. Also the NC low is moving westward still. This could all suggest that Kyle could still head further west then the NHC says in the short term period which will either mean there will have to be a trend westward for the later period forecast. Also the NHC suggests he's west of the forecast track.
41. Thanks Mom!
Quoting TheMom:
He has been in our thoughts and is on my parents church prayer list (even thought I didn't know his name he is N. E. Patriot's Dad ;-)
and darn I thought I could start over and empty it out at the end of the season...


Thank you,that's very thoughtful,its comforting to hear things like that.
As far as the ignore list,never let your guard down,just when you think its safe in the blog,they attack.
Quoting CTSkywatcher:
41. Thanks Mom!
Sure thing there are some other ones on there as well about ocean waves and atmospheric waves and stuff like that if you click on courses I just figured the most basic one was best to post about for us newbies as im sure the advanced guys mostlikely already know about the free advanced ones.
Quoting TheMom:
52. MichaelSTL
GW posts are only allowed on blogs where Dr Master's started it, may only last for a maximum of 15 posts or until other bloggers threaten destruction of those debateing and must incclude at lest 1 referance to Cows being the culprit... That is all

If cows are the culprit, that explains what killed the dinos. Can you imagine what and how much THEY emitted? LOL

Can you really get banned for having too many ignores? (Dumb question, I know, just wanted to make sure it was just a joke).
67. IKE
Quoting goldmoon:

If cows are the culprit, that explains what killed the dinos. Can you imagine what and how much THEY emitted? LOL

Can you really get banned for having too many ignores? (Dumb question, I know, just wanted to make sure it was just a joke).


If so, TAZ would be banned...no, the ignore list has no limit. I'm approaching 70 myself...
Thanks I'll keep my eyes open and This may be a weather community but we all have seen the personal community that has grown here as well so you know you got lots of thoughts comming you and your family's way :-)
Thanks,storm,I feel somewhat comforted by the NHC track and your synopsis,but still a little wary of how the omega block and the building high will act.
Quoting goldmoon:

If cows are the culprit, that explains what killed the dinos. Can you imagine what and how much THEY emitted? LOL

Can you really get banned for having too many ignores? (Dumb question, I know, just wanted to make sure it was just a joke).
Sorry that line of discussion Dinosaurs cause the Ice Age has already been covered this season and two research grants have already been applied for. ;-) I'm just brushing 400 BTW
I just update my blog if anyone would like to review.....thanks..

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
72. IKE
12Z GFS is on board with a GOM system affected Florida in 96 hours....Laura?....

RE: 57. MichaelSTL

Thanks - Much appreciate

That makes sense. If I understand correctly
If you are seeing a globe of the earth it would be from the satellite view point
If you are seeing a map (flat view) - there is probably some sort of compensation.

Yikes! It seems so obvious now - again thanks for answering this
Hey NEwxguy, what area of NE are you located in?

Good ol' NH here.

This is for anyone: Looking at Sunday and the arrival of Kyle, I'm going to the Red Sox game...poncho or no?
Quoting IKE:
Stock market down 87 points...economy is tanking big-time...

Now...back to the tropics.....



Only 87? That's a GREAT day in today's market.

After looking at my 401K balance recently, I've determined that sadly, I will not be able to retire at 37, as once planned.
61. Dean: Good obs. I am watching that high pressure closely. Figures that there is no cold front when you need it to clear it all out.
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS is on board with a GOM system affected Florida in 96 hours....Laura?....

IKE TAKE THAT BACK! Uggh
79. TheMom 12:24 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS is on board with a GOM system affected Florida in 96 hours....Laura?....


IKE TAKE THAT BACK! Uggh


The trough is retrograting NORTH as a warm front...possibly pulling the low north also..
Quoting StormW:
74. npenta519 12:18 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Hey NEwxguy, what area of NE are you located in?

Good ol' NH here.

This is for anyone: Looking at Sunday and the arrival of Kyle, I'm going to the Red Sox game...poncho or no?


Poncho.


Thanks!!
Quoting dean2007:


This is a cloud pattern analysis:

I see that the flow northeast of Kyle is backing SE to NW suggesting that the high is either moving west or strengthening northeast of Kyle. There is a band of clouds north of Bermuda orienated SE to NW and is backing westward. Also the NC low is moving westward still. This could all suggest that Kyle could still head further west then the NHC says in the short term period which will either mean there will have to be a trend westward for the later period forecast. Also the NHC suggests he's west of the forecast track.


I agree. The models all kill the nc low which would tend to change the flow to S to N. But I still dont see it weakening as fast as they show. I see kyle getting a lot closer to the east coast. If i'm wrong well it's not the first or the last time.
84. IKE
Quoting TheMom:
IKE TAKE THAT BACK! Uggh


I can see that happening....then a strong cold front plows through after it crosses Florida and heads up the coast.
Quoting npenta519:
Hey NEwxguy, what area of NE are you located in?

Good ol' NH here.

This is for anyone: Looking at Sunday and the arrival of Kyle, I'm going to the Red Sox game...poncho or no?


just west of Boston,and you can wear your poncho,but pretty sure,they aren't going to be playing tonight,too bad it's always fun when the yankees are in town.
86. NEwxguy 12:33 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting npenta519:
Hey NEwxguy, what area of NE are you located in?

Good ol' NH here.

This is for anyone: Looking at Sunday and the arrival of Kyle, I'm going to the Red Sox game...poncho or no?


just west of Boston,and you can wear your poncho,but pretty sure,they aren't going to be playing tonight,too bad it's always fun when the yankees are in town.


This will be like the Yankees World Series....and a meaningless game to the Sox since they will have a wild card spot.......LMAO....

WOW boy what a wild ride that was here in SNEADS FERRY N.C. O and BTW jeff masters was wrong that tornado touched down around 3:30 or so...i know because i am NWS STORM SPOTTER and the NWS called my house and said that there was a tornado that was coming right for my house...HEY DOES ANYBODY think that im in any kind of danger from KYLE??? thanks for your input...PROPS TO THE NWS thank you for calling me :)
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just update my blog if anyone would like to review.....thanks..

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link


Hey,Tim,thats not a pretty picture your painting in the your synopsis.
The low level circulation appears under the western extent of the convection right now. Flow to the NE of Kyle appears to be moving SE to NW heading westward as a whole just to the northeast of Bermuda indicated by the band of low level clouds as its not picked up by water vapor imagery.
91. KRL
Lantana Beach Florida experienced extreme beach erosion yesterday with sidewalks collapsing into the Atlantic Ocean.

Watch the news report on this link:

LANTANA VIDEO
Quoting IKE:


I can see that happening....then a strong cold front plows through after it crosses Florida and heads up the coast.
They have forcasted the cold front next week but this is the first news on the development thanks for the heads up so we can start watching the players in the possible development.
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS is on board with a GOM system affected Florida in 96 hours....Laura?....



With 50kt windshear presently in the area i see small chances at any significant development.

12z GFS shear forcast...Very hostile in the gulf.

Quoting NEwxguy:


Hey,Tim,thats not a pretty picture your painting in the your synopsis.


Ya i know! I hope im wrong.....but the high is very strong and the retrogration of the trough NOrth is tending me to believe the impact for you...be ready..
Quoting dean2007:
The low level circulation appears under the western extent of the convection right now. Flow to the NE of Kyle appears to be moving SE to NW heading westward as a whole just to the northeast of Bermuda indicated by the band of low level clouds as its not picked up by water vapor imagery.
Dean I think that has a bit to do with 94L tracking a bit more west as well. You can definitely see the high putting some more pressure on Kyle as well to from the east
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS is on board with a GOM system affected Florida in 96 hours....Laura?....



May Bee!!!
Quoting Engine2:
Dean I think that has a bit to do with 94L tracking a bit more west as well. You can definitely see the high putting some more pressure on Kyle as well to from the east


It's stripping down again.
Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya i know! I hope im wrong.....but the high is very strong and the retrogration of the trough NOrth is tending me to believe the impact for you...be ready..


To be honest with you,when I looked at the flow yesterday,I was tending to think we were in trouble,I'm going to watch this very closely.
100. IKE
Quoting hurricane23:


With 50kt windshear presently in the area i see small chances at any significant development.

12z GFS shear forcast...Very hostile in the gulf.



Apparently the shear would have to lessen for anything to form....that's 4 days out........
Quoting chilliam:
Don't give in to the fear mongering, people.

I'll be sure to pass that along to the folks in Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula as well as those still flooded in Haiti. Thanks for your concern.

(back on ignore you go...please don't quote these trolls anymore)
Quoting hurricane23:


With 50kt windshear presently in the area i see small chances at any significant development.

12z GFS shear forcast...Very hostile in the gulf.



That's correct... but as we unfortunately know... that shear will have to decrease in the upcoming days as 94L continues to weaken and move away leaving that trough behind it which reaches down to the GOM.
Convection is slightly weakening with Kyle right now. However I expect this to change tonight as he reaches a higher area of moisture being pulled north by former 94L. The 12z GFS has trended westward and now has Kyle just east of Cape Cod, MA and stronger then previous runs. I will check back for the 12z tropical model runs.
Quoting IKE:


Apparently the shear would have to lessen for anything to form....that's 4 days out........
I know Tampa also brought up the amount of Dry air as well but the cooler stired up waters would be an additional hinderance right? So it would have 3 strikes against it but of course in this season all those rules seem not to apply.
blog hole?
Texas residents of ravaged peninsula head home
By JUAN A. LOZANO (Associated Press Writer)
From Associated Press
September 26, 2008 11:26 AM EDT

WINNIE, Texas - Texas residents of a fragile peninsula ravaged by Hurricane Ike jammed the lone road home Friday to begin rebuilding their lives.

Bolivar Peninsula's estimated 4,000 residents were permitted to return on a "look and leave" basis, lining up at a checkpoint despite warnings they could find snakes and alligators amid debris.

The narrow peninsula just northeast of Galveston was among the hardest-hit areas when Ike blasted ashore Sept. 13 with 110 mph winds and a storm surge that swept away homes and businesses.

Beth Varing, whose vacation home of 20 years in Gilchrist was gone except for some wooden pilings, was making a small pile beside the road of items she recovered: a few unbroken dishes, some utensils, a fishing pole and some pieces of tile.

"It's unbelievable. All I can do is cry," she said. "These beach houses have been here forever. I can't wrap my thoughts around this. I can't see how it picked up these beach houses and now there is nothing left."

Neighbors Raymond and Lola Rice walked around looking for anything from the beach home they've had since 1969.

Lola Rice, 69, stopped walking, looked down and yelled out to her husband: "Do you want a piece of your roof?"

Residents can begin repairs but can't live in their homes since there is no power, water, sewer or telephone service.

It was slow going along the two-lane State Highway 87 onto the peninsula as traffic backed up at least 5 miles and stalled for long stretches. Some drivers spent more than an hour on the highway, which was mostly cleared of debris, before passing through a checkpoint onto the peninsula.

As they arrived at the checkpoint, Federal Emergency Management Agency officials stood by the road handing out pamphlets on how to apply for aid. Further down the road, tents were set up where people could get ice, water, mosquito repellent or tetanus shots.

While most residents fled before Ike arrived, a small group stayed on the peninsula that stretches 27 miles along the Texas Gulf Coast.

Link
Quoting TheMom:
I know Tampa also brought up the amount of Dry air as well but the cooler stired up waters would be an additional hinderance right? So it would have 3 strikes against it but of course in this season all those rules seem not to apply.


If upwelling happened on the W coast then that would have been the case... but unfortunately the TEMP in the E GOM still at 29C for the time being... so if we keep getting SW winds I won't see a rapid cooling of the GOM.
Lola Rice, 69, stopped walking, looked down and yelled out to her husband: "Do you want a piece of your roof?"

I officaly love her!

109. IKE
Quoting TheMom:
I know Tampa also brought up the amount of Dry air as well but the cooler stired up waters would be an additional hinderance right? So it would have 3 strikes against it but of course in this season all those rules seem not to apply.


Waters are still warm enough...

Quoting TampaSpin:
79. TheMom 12:24 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS is on board with a GOM system affected Florida in 96 hours....Laura?....


IKE TAKE THAT BACK! Uggh


The trough is retrograting NORTH as a warm front...possibly pulling the low north also..


Its Friday, my brains are tired, could you please translate to English?

TIA
Kyle just teleported to egypt?
Quoting IKE:


Waters are still warm enough...

Thanks Ike ... I think
113. IKE
I just checked the buoys in the eastern GOM...water temps still in the low 80's....even up to the northeastern GOM....right near the coast...panhandle of Florida...water temps in the upper 70's.
Quoting IKE:
I just checked the buoys in the eastern GOM...water temps still in the low 80's....even up to the northeastern GOM....right near the coast...panhandle of Florida...water temps in the upper 70's.
What are the ranges for development probiblities? Dr. Masters usually does it in C. And TIA
110. zoomiami 1:07 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
79. TheMom 12:24 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS is on board with a GOM system affected Florida in 96 hours....Laura?....


IKE TAKE THAT BACK! Uggh

The trough is retrograting NORTH as a warm front...possibly pulling the low north also..



Its Friday, my brains are tired, could you please translate to English?

TIA


When the trough came down north it has become statationary for the most part. These often move back north as a Warm front. IF that does happen we could see the attached LoW move north also.....just have to wait and see....but, i have already seen the front move north some...so it seems like a possibility......hope this helps...
Complete refresh
All Systems ... Atlantic
New York - NS ... Kyle ... complete with Models
New York - NS ... Kyle ... with Cloud Cover
New York - NS ... Kyle ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
New York - NS ... Kyle ... predicted Landfall
Carols System ... 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
CMC & ... NY City/Maine
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean Part Duex
118. JRRP
Africa ???????????????????????????????''
Quoting TampaSpin:


When the trough came down north it has become statationary for the most part. These often move back north as a Warm front. IF that does happen we could see the attached LoW move north also.....just have to wait and see....but, i have already seen the front move north some...so it seems like a possibility......hope this helps...
So it kind of YoYo s? Is this a regular event for this time of year or just happened to be because of the other pressure areas?
120. Enola
Quoting JRRP:
Africa ???????????????????????????????''

A slight technical problem :)
121. IKE
Clouds in the BOC do have a slight spin to them....

Link
Quoting StormW:
114. TheMom 1:13 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting IKE:
I just checked the buoys in the eastern GOM...water temps still in the low 80's....even up to the northeastern GOM....right near the coast...panhandle of Florida...water temps in the upper 70's.
What are the ranges for development probiblities? Dr. Masters usually does it in C. And TIA


80F is the magic number for tropical systems.
Quoting StormW:
BR>80F is the magic number for tropical systems.
Thanks Storm so if it was to develop over the areas that are in the 80 coming in to the areas of upper 70's might not have much effect on it but if the 70's areas were lower like mid to low then it would have the possiblity to weaken it or does the cooling of the core do more to maybe weaken the winds but spreads it out so it then becomes more a a surge threat than a wind threat so over all damage potential is still strong?
Photobucket

When analyzing the latest satellite imagery (especially water vapor) as well as steering current analysis and model trends, New England may need to prepare for Kyle's possible arrival.

Right now, Tropical Storm Kyle has been moving between NW and NNW over the past few hours. With a strong trough attached to the low associated with Invest 94L to the west, it has been moving in this direction over the past 24 hours. But, this may change depending upon the high pressure ridging to the north over the Northern Atlantic.

Over the Northern Atlantic, a high pressure ridge has been strengthening and expanding southwest and has begun affecting Kyle. You can clearly see this on visible satellite imagery as convection associated with Kyle had been getting a push further westward. Whether this continues or not is yet to be seen and could have an effect on the future track.

Since there is strong high pressure squeezed between two strong low pressure centers, it has created a blocking pattern in the atmosphere. In meteorology, this is called an Omega block. It can throw forecasts for loops as it affects the timing of certain elements. But, based upon the current setup, my best forecast is that this pattern will force Kyle further westward than the computer models and current NHC thinking suggests.

All residents in the New England region should be prepared for possible tropical storm force conditions come early Sunday and lasting through the day.
Quoting StormW:
114. TheMom 1:13 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting IKE:
I just checked the buoys in the eastern GOM...water temps still in the low 80's....even up to the northeastern GOM....right near the coast...panhandle of Florida...water temps in the upper 70's.
What are the ranges for development probiblities? Dr. Masters usually does it in C. And TIA


80F is the magic number for tropical systems.



Tropical systems have been found to have a threshold of about 80 degrees in order for them to sustain themselves.....There have also been other cases where strong storms have maintained themselves over relatively cooler waters.....This is why favorable upper level environments are the MOST important factor in tropical development....
Quoting IKE:
Clouds in the BOC do have a slight spin to them....

Link


CMC has been hinting at systems there for the next week.. almost hourly. I think the shear is killing them. That being said, the CMC has one on the BOC and one in Caribbean starting 126/180 hours respectively
I would also add that hurricanes upwell cooler waters from below, so it is helpful if this warm water is deep....
127. IKE
122...It's suppose to warm back up this weekend over Florida, including NW FL. Water temps may rebound a degree or 2 near the coast. It's still warm enough....
Africa's looking mighty dry.
temp map

Link
114 - to make a quick translation from F to C, subtract 32 and divide that by 2. That gets close enough.

The actual formula is C=(F-32) * (5/9)

To go from C to F, multiply by 2 and then add 32.

F=(9/5)C+32

So for the quick conversion 80F is about 24C. It gets you close enough for most people who have a casual need to convert between temperature scales.
Quoting quasigeostropic:



Tropical systems have been found to have a threshold of about 80 degrees in order for them to sustain themselves.....There have also been other cases where strong storms have maintained themselves over relatively cooler waters.....This is why favorable upper level environments are the MOST important factor in tropical development....
Thanks. The UL environment is where the Anti cyclones and MJO come into play correct? Is shear at that level as well or is that a mid level issue?
123. cchsweatherman 1:20 PM EDT on September 26, 2008

CCHS very nice anlysis which i agree with completely..except i think NYC could see a very large impact also from KYLE.....the wind funnels created around those high rise scrapers could easily have hurricane force winds.....
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Photobucket

When analyzing the latest satellite imagery (especially water vapor) as well as steering current analysis and model trends, New England may need to prepare for Kyle's possible arrival.

Right now, Tropical Storm Kyle has been moving between NW and NNW over the past few hours. With a strong trough attached to the low associated with Invest 94L to the west, it has been moving in this direction over the past 24 hours. But, this may change depending upon the high pressure ridging to the north over the Northern Atlantic.

Over the Northern Atlantic, a high pressure ridge has been strengthening and expanding southwest and has begun affecting Kyle. You can clearly see this on visible satellite imagery as convection associated with Kyle had been getting a push further westward. Whether this continues or not is yet to be seen and could have an effect on the future track.

Since there is strong high pressure squeezed between two strong low pressure centers, it has created a blocking pattern in the atmosphere. In meteorology, this is called an Omega block. It can throw forecasts for loops as it affects the timing of certain elements. But, based upon the current setup, my best forecast is that this pattern will force Kyle further westward than the computer models and current NHC thinking suggests.

All residents in the New England region should be prepared for possible tropical storm force conditions come early Sunday and lasting through the day.
CCHS - I'd have to say most agree with you on this, I'm very interested to see how this will play out. I'm on Long Island and don't expect a landfall here, but I think Rhode Island and the Cape should definitely watch this.
134. IKE
Shear is lessening some in the GOM.....give it 2-3 days...
A very unstable situation would be very cold air aloft....It is the temperature gradient that has a big part in how unstable the atmosphere is....Because the air is naturally much colder over subtropical storms(because they oftern originate from extratropical systems), they require a lower SST threshold than for a purely tropical system(with air aloft being relatively warmer than aloft over a subtropical storm).....The larger the temperature difference between the top and surface(assuming the "top" is the colder region) the more potential instability.....
Quoting IKE:
Shear is lessening some in the GOM.....give it 2-3 days...
Just when you think it might be winding down, it could start again!
Quoting IKE:
122...It's suppose to warm back up this weekend over Florida, including NW FL. Water temps may rebound a degree or 2 near the coast. It's still warm enough....
How much does air temp play in the water heat is it minimal compaired to the sun angle? And would some of the warming be the overcoming of the stir up from IKE and new introduction of loop eddies?

Quoting quasigeostropic:
I would also add that hurricanes upwell cooler waters from below, so it is helpful if this warm water is deep....


Indeed...
Thanks KEY and everyone you guys are making me feel like I have a room full of excited giving teachers it is awesome! THANK YOU!
Once the BOC feature comes across the Yucatan (providing it holds up) and into the NW Carribean, which direction does it go?

Time:
17:11:30Z
Coordinates:
26.7333N 68.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press:
696.5 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
3,177 meters (~ 10,423 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
1001.2 mb (~ 29.57 inHg)
D-value:


Quoting TampaSpin:
123. cchsweatherman 1:20 PM EDT on September 26, 2008

CCHS very nice anlysis which i agree with completely..except i think NYC could see a very large impact also from KYLE.....the wind funnels created around those high rise scrapers could easily have hurricane force winds.....
THAT is an excellent point Tampa even a mildly breezy day can be knock you down strong in the city!

Quoting largeeyes:
Kyle just teleported to egypt?


No, but if you looked at 26.4, 68.8, your map would be somewhere in Pakistan.
Quoting Orcasystems:


CMC has been hinting at systems there for the next week.. almost hourly. I think the shear is killing them. That being said, the CMC has one on the BOC and one in Caribbean starting 126/180 hours respectively


That's almost scary.

I said earlier that's where Laura and Marco would come from... without even looking at the models.

Gotta love coincidences.
Quoting TampaSpin:
123. cchsweatherman 1:20 PM EDT on September 26, 2008

CCHS very nice anlysis which i agree with completely..except i think NYC could see a very large impact also from KYLE.....the wind funnels created around those high rise scrapers could easily have hurricane force winds.....


Yeh,I go into Boston on some windy days,and you can come around corner and nearly get knocked over.The sky scrapers create wind tunnels.
If you looked to the north of Kyle on the Wator Vapor Loop, you will see the convection thats flowing out of it is being elongated and bumped west. When Kyle's center reaches around that point you will start to see a more westerly component than its experiencing now. Like CCHS said its just how much of a westerly component will Kyle experience.
Quoting JRRP:
Africa ???????????????????????????????''
looks like the Mediteranian Sea is clear, Greece and Crete ok too lol don't think Kyle is going there
Quoting HIEXPRESS:


No, but if you looked at 26.4, 68.8, your map would be somewhere in Pakistan.
So I'm not the only one that has that on my blog now lol
Quoting JRRP:
Africa ???????????????????????????????''


Well....that's where they start....
A potent trof of low pressure is expected sometime into next week which could help keep the gulf rather hostile.

Here's another model view this time useing the 12z CMC shear forcast.Again very hostile in the gulf.

I figure i have created enough dialog to mix everyone including me up for the day...so everyone have a good afternoon and i will be back later.....NO FIGHTING!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I figure i have created enough dialog to mix everyone including me up for the day...so everyone have a good afternoon and i will be back later.....NO FIGHTING!


awww dad, (insert nick here) started it :)
I love the map on the Doc's blog.

Kyle intensifying over the Nile!? Maybe he's gone to see the pyramids.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I figure i have created enough dialog to mix everyone including me up for the day...so everyone have a good afternoon and i will be back later.....NO FIGHTING!


Have a good one Tampa,don't take this personal,but hope your analysis is wrong.
Quoting hurricane23:
A potent trof of low pressure is expected sometime into next week which could help keep the gulf rather hostile.

Here's another model view this time useing the 12z CMC shear forcast.Again very hostile in the gulf.



Just been analyzing the computer models and noticed that during my analysis. If this does indeed verify, it would be terrific news for the United States, in terms of the tropics, as it would provide a shield against tropical cyclones from impacting the United States. Also, this would mean that cooler-than-normal temperatures would exist over the Southeast and would bring refreshing conditions.
154 - No no no, he's seeing his mummy.
is the shear supposed to decrease over kyle soon?
Afternoon Folks.....Not a pro here at all on the climatology statistics (I'm sure that many of you will cite me specific examples of "exceptions"...Lol) but in looking at current shear values and generally cool temps and trofs for late September, but I'm starting to wonder whether another "big one" this season is starting to become less and less of a possibility........We usually have a few big CV storms each year during that August-September period (with Ike being the example this year, Felix and Dean last year, etc.) but October is almost hear and conditions in the tropical atlantic look pretty hostile right about now..........I agree that we may get a few weaker TS's from frontal remants in October but I'm thinking the season IMHO is rapidly coming to a close..........
My guys were reading over my shoulder and they thought the satellite photo of Kyle was a little off unless he was headed to Egypt. Thanks for the cute laugh. Glad that things are much calmer than they were a few weeks ago.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Afternoon Folks.....Not a pro here at all on the climatology statistics (I'm sure that many of you will cite me specific examples of "exceptions"...Lol) but in looking at current shear values and generally cool temps and trofs for late September, but I'm starting to wonder whether another "big one" this season is starting to become less and less of a possibility........We usually have a few big CV storms each year during that August-September period (with Ike being the example this year, Felix and Dean last year, etc.) but October is almost hear and conditions in the tropical atlantic look pretty hostile right about now..........I agree that we may get a few weaker TS's from frontal remants in October but I'm thinking the season IMHO is rapidly coming to a close..........


You best be knocking on wood when you make a statement like that, and I do not mean two weeks from now pounding your head on a desk either.
Quoting hurricane556:
is the shear supposed to decrease over kyle soon?
Yes in 24 hours and then pick back up in 48hrs
I never realized how much the western Atlantic looked like Egypt. Kyle of the Nile.
Quoting Orcasystems:


You best be knocking on wood when you make a statement like that, and I do not mean two weeks from now pounding your head on a desk either.


Lol....I am sitting at a wooden desk right now......
Quoting TampaSpin:
86. NEwxguy 12:33 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting npenta519:
Hey NEwxguy, what area of NE are you located in?

Good ol' NH here.

This is for anyone: Looking at Sunday and the arrival of Kyle, I'm going to the Red Sox game...poncho or no?


just west of Boston,and you can wear your poncho,but pretty sure,they aren't going to be playing tonight,too bad it's always fun when the yankees are in town.


This will be like the Yankees World Series....and a meaningless game to the Sox since they will have a wild card spot.......LMAO....



Hate to say this, and I expect a lot of crap but...

I'm a Yankee's fan living with a Red Sox man.

This game will be tough :-D
Can anyone update the score on total storms for the 2008 season?

Thanks in advance!


No winds to speak of on the Western Side of Kyle

Click to enlarge image


Hi Baja,
Thanks for stopping by my blog.. I usually avoid this blog except we have storms to watch out there! or I need some entertainment! LOL

But I do check in from time to time and lurk to make sure nothing is happening! LOL

Yes, I had no idea about those tornados in Cabot, AR but like I said, my Dad didn't call me so I know all my cousins and Aunts and Uncles who live there must be OK.

thanks for the info in your blog!
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Can anyone update the score on total storms for the 2008 season?

Thanks in advance!
we are up to K but look to the right on this Linkplus one for voldemort
Hi everyone,

Question.. I saw some of you talking about your "ignore" lists earlier...

I have grown a long one also this season.. but looking at it.. I think some of those "trolls" who are not here for very long because they end up getting permanent ban by that handle.. if those handles are gone for good I guess we can "unban" it can't we?

I do know some of my "ignore list" is still here because I sometimes see you all quoting them LOL...

Quoting npenta519:


Hate to say this, and I expect a lot of crap but...

I'm a Yankee's fan living with a Red Sox man.

This game will be tough :-D


lol,what was that movie,irreconcilable differences
If they had named this system Laura, they would have gotten complaints that are too quick to give names to storms that do not deserve them, and thus are artificially inflating tropical storm statistics to make it appear that global warming is increasing the number of tropical storms.

Heaven knows we wouldn't want our government accused of fudging numbers. Appoint a council to look into it.
LOL @ 173. don't forget to pass a bill! :)
Just a few of the names I "think I remember" as trolls.. not just annoying posters..

are any of these handles gone for good:

leftovers
LeMat
studjuderson
catss
eye
STSUCKS
LooneyJPdoomcaster
alcomet
chiggy007
sigh
tropicalamanda
hthh


I hope I didn't offend any from that list that are still here and are good posters but maybe I forwhat ever reason that day ignored them..

but is it safe to say those are all gone now?
Just got on and reading back, I noticed The Mom had a question about water tems. as regards canes. Storm W stated 80F was the magic number and I agree.
After watching these things over the years it seems that water temp is more important to development early in the season and atmopheric condition are more important later on...any comments?

are any of these handles gone for good:

leftovers
LeMat
studjuderson
catss
eye
STSUCKS
LooneyJPdoomcaster
alcomet
chiggy007
sigh
tropicalamanda
hthh


I hope I didn't offend any from that list that are still here and are good posters but maybe I forwhat ever reason that day ignored them..

but is it safe to say those are all gone now?


I havn't seen any of those names for a long time.
Ohhhh Creepy thing if the system in Gulf was to develop and come in to Central Florida as Laura timeing is during ABC/Disney's SuperSoap Weekend and Genie Francise (Laura on General Hospital like FOREVER was just given a rude good bye) So would be the "Revenge of Laura"

Okay I now return you to your regularly scheduled Tropics talk sans Soap opera referances.
chiggy was on this morning
I didn't think I had either.
Thanks.. I can clear those out of there!

I don't like uncessary clutter! LOL


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN
BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM
COULD STILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON KYLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Leftovers is cool a bit opinionated at times but who here isn't?
Quoting TheMom:
Ohhhh Creepy thing if the system in Gulf was to develop and come in to Central Florida as Laura timeing is during ABC/Disney's SuperSoap Weekend and Genie Francise (Laura on General Hospital like FOREVER was just given a rude good bye) So would be the "Revenge of Laura"

Okay I now return you to your regularly scheduled Tropics talk sans Soap opera referances.


Hmm me thinks Mom needs to get out more :)
After analysing the satellite imagery, Kyle is moving NNE and unnamed subtrop storm is moving W.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmm me thinks Mom needs to get out more :)
LOL The really sad part is I haven't watched a Soap since college like 14 years ago lol...
oh well, if leftover and chiggy are still around they are being given another chance LOL
I took them off my list.

ok back to work for me, will check in later.

I sure hope that blob you are all talking about in GOM doesn't really do any developing...
Quoting MissNadia:
Just got on and reading back, I noticed The Mom had a question about water tems. as regards canes. Storm W stated 80F was the magic number and I agree.
After watching these things over the years it seems that water temp is more important to development early in the season and atmopheric condition are more important later on...any comments?


80F usually is.

But as we know, subtropical can develop 2 degrees lower, and Epsilon intensified into a 'cane over 22-23C waters. That's just over 70F.

Depends on the other environmental factors.

(Yes I realise I'm being a touch pedantic here!)
188. OGal
Gams, saw your post on the GOM blob. No way! We do not want anymore heavy rain up here.
Quoting Cotillion:


80F usually is.

But as we know, subtropical can develop 2 degrees lower, and Epsilon intensified into a 'cane over 22-23C waters. That's just over 70F.

Depends on the other environmental factors.

(Yes I realise I'm being a touch pedantic here!)
Thanks to both of you for the further clarifications.
Kyle's back from his trip to The Nile I see
187 Cotillion
Thanks
Pedantic is O.K....beter than the alternative!!!!!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 18:14Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previously corrected observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2008
Storm Name: Kyle (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 17:34:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2655'N 6847'W (26.9167N 68.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 443 miles (713 km) between the SSW and SW (213) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,485m (4,872ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 0 nautical miles (0 statute miles) to the E (90) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 255 at 16kts (From the WSW at ~ 18.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the SW (228) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17C (63F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20C (68F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14C (57F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 16kts (~ 18.4mph) in the southwest quadrant at 17:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:06:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SYSTEM SHEARED TO NE WITH HEIGHT. MAX SURFACE WINDS ARE JUST TO NE OF SFC CNTR BUT COLOCATED WITH FL CNTR.


General Notes About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."
- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."
(Quotes from National Hurricane Operations Plan - NHOP)





193. beell
Last night's unnamed storm fell solidly in this grey area...

I think the Doc came really close to almost hitting this nail near the head...

j/k Doc-good explanation.


Attention All Hands!!!!!!!!!!

we are at $4200.00 toward getting me into that dress.....


www.portlight.org
Funny what is my character on that list. Ive never seen the character making that list actually adding something to this hurricane blog. No big deal Hopefully nothing major coming up but water temp is warm near s fl.
Quoting presslord:
Attention All Hands!!!!!!!!!!

we are at $4200.00 toward getting me into that dress.....


www.portlight.org
WONDERFUL!!!!!!!!!!! Great Job Press et alis!!! Hey did you ever get it set so we can do auctions on Ebay to go to the charity?
197. IKE
12Z ECMWF>>>Link
186. what happened with tropicalamanda? before Ike, the last i remember is that she was a much-lauded new poster on this board?!?!?

/life sux without internet!
Kyle keeps pumping in the moisture to the Northeast. That plume is incredible coming up this way
Quoting pearlandaggie:
186. what happened with tropicalamanda? before Ike, the last i remember is that she was a much-lauded new poster on this board?!?!?

/life sux without internet!
Welcome back to the virtual world glad you guys withstood Ike and the time off the grid. TA = troll that was using a pic of an actor kid we know.
200. LOL! too funny! it's amazing how much we miss/don't know/don't hear of without TV or internet!
afternoon folks.

soggy day here in the northeast
Quoting pearlandaggie:
200. LOL! too funny! it's amazing how much we miss/don't know/don't hear of without TV or internet!
We definately are spoiled now with instant access. Things have just changed so much in our life times. Things as basic as seatbealts last night I took kidlet to a carshow and showed him a car my mom had when I was about his age that I almost died in because we didn't have seatbelts back then.

Ike vs the 1900 storm think how much technology has played in the pre, during and post situations and re/actions.
Quoting Bonedog:
afternoon folks.

soggy day here in the northeast
Hey Bone! And it looks to be a soggy and possibly windy weekend for you guys to!
Hey bone - yes it is. Its a little to quiet in here for a developing storm
203. i was telling my wife about the 1900 storm and how folks didn't know/believe a storm was coming. it seems so different today when (for the most part with the exception of storms that spin up just offshore) we know several days in advance of the mere existence of a storm and even have a cloudy idea of where it may go. we are truly blessed to have the NHC's "cone of doom" to complain about!
the shear is really doing a number on Kyle. The noname system looks to be having a very wide influence.
Hey Mom. Yes it does. No wind here though just drizzle right now and cool temps.
Hey Engine. Yea does seem quiet for a Cane in the ATL thats going to possibly effect the NE
Good Visible shot of the current setup for Kyle
Quoting pearlandaggie:
203. we are truly blessed to have the NHC's "cone of doom" to complain about!
AMEN! So how did you guys fair?
Hey,Bone,
AH,soggy doesn't quite describe today.
Im just glad the models keep swinging him east. Feel bad the the folks up in Scotia though, hopefully Kyle will weaken alot before getting there
NE whats up. You guys getting what we had last night LOL
Quoting Engine2:
Good Visible shot of the current setup for Kyle
It definately seems to want to pull Kyle into you guys to me. How far out do the surge and windfield and rain info start to become reliable in a east coast storm like this?
Quoting Bonedog:
Im just glad the models keep swinging him east. Feel bad the the folks up in Scotia though, hopefully Kyle will weaken alot before getting there
Yea the squeeze play is on between the High to the east and 94L to the west. I'm anxious to see what the models will have tomorrow
Quoting Bonedog:
NE whats up. You guys getting what we had last night LOL
yeh,light rain early,moderate most of the morning and in some heavy stuff right now.
211. fairly well...we were very lucky. we had the typical fences and trees down, shingles missing, and a little sheetrock damage due to water infiltration. other than that, we got power back after only 26 hours because we are on the same circuit as the nearby water treatment plant. all of the damages have been repaired because i did the work myself.

unfortunately, a LOT of folks in other areas didn't fare as well.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
211. fairly well...we were very lucky. we had the typical fences and trees down, shingles missing, and a little sheetrock damage due to water infiltration. other than that, we got power back after only 26 hours because we are on the same circuit as the nearby water treatment plant. all of the damages have been repaired because i did the work myself.

unfortunately, a LOT of folks in other areas didn't fare as well.
Glad it was possible for you to do that. And yes the pictrues SJ is posting are just rip your heart out and stomp on it sad.
Mom with a sheared system such as Kyle the western side doesn really have much of an influence.

Here is a great chart showing path, strength, and windfield

Link
wierd it would post the pic so I made it a link
Does anyone have an opinion about the possibility of a FL threat next week?
Return to Bolivar Peninsula is slow-going for residents

HIGH ISLAND — Residents of the Bolivar Peninsula crowded onto the only roadway back home today, the first day they were allowed to return and check out the massive wreckage left behind after Hurricane Ike roared through this thin strip of land along the Gulf of Mexico.

The peninsula's 4,000 or so residents are being allowed back on a "look and leave" policy, lining up to return despite warnings they could find snakes and alligators in the debris. The peninsula just northeast of Galveston was among the hardest-hit areas when Ike blasted ashore Sept. 13, with 110 mph winds and a storm surge that swept away homes and businesses.

Quoting Bonedog:
Mom with a sheared system such as Kyle the western side doesn really have much of an influence.

Here is a great chart showing path, strength, and windfield

Guessing you are gonna add it as I type this. So since he is sheared on his weatern side then it will be for you guys like Hanna was for us (Daytona) where the worst of the storm is at sea instead of on us.
Modulation of Hurricane
Activity in the Gulf of Mexico by
the Madden-Julian Oscillation

"Tropical cyclone
activity in the Gulf of Mexico appears to vary
strongly in association with these intraseasonal
wind variations"

850mb wind
Yes Mom that would be correct
221. Thanks so it is good for you but since East side is stronger could be bad for Bermuda.
i don't think Kyle will become a hurricane
fire checking all the models didnt see any threat for florida on any of them
Have a good day everyone. Time to close for the day.
Quoting Bonedog:
fire checking all the models didnt see any threat for florida on any of them


Hmm... ok.. I saw the GFS with some activity next week.. just wondering if anyone else saw it and what they thought of it.
Dont think Bermuda will feel it either. The Newfies will be the only ones to feel Kyle and in a much weakened state
Quoting TheMom:
221. Thanks so it is good for you but since East side is stronger could be bad for Bermuda.

Forecast to pass 262nm west of Bermuda noon tomorrow. Heavy, showery rain Saturday & Sunday but highest wind is tonight 31mph. Doesn't sound too bad to me!
Quoting fire635:


Hmm... ok.. I saw the GFS with some activity next week.. just wondering if anyone else saw it and what they thought of it.
Quoting fire635:


Hmm... ok.. I saw the GFS with some activity next week.. just wondering if anyone else saw it and what they thought of it.



The GFS has been making some grumblings about that lately:



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

MON-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. GFS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE AID OF A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DRAGGING IT ACROSS THE STATE TUES INTO
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SOLUTION
WITH ECMWF NOT IN AGREEMENT. WILL KEEP POPS AT 50 PERCENT TUES SINCE
IT IS STILL FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT IF GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS THEN MAY NEED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES.
That little blip crossing florida is most likely a low pressure center associated with a cold front. This is the time of year for that to happen.
LOL Vort posted at the same time. At least I am backed up in my statment by NOAA
Thanks
Thanks guys part of the gotta keep up since I think earlier there was talk of a jog/wobble that could make it a problem for Bermuda. Thanks for keeping me straight.
Hey Bonedog, um there is a THREAT to FL next week!!! my meteorology professor has already mentioned it todaay, and he said, FL needs to watch this CAREFULLY. NOT saying its going to happen, buy any storms that develop from here on in the GULF of Mexico need to be monitered Closely. Remember Wilma? OK!
Thanks to you as well vortix
Kyles convection is being channeled into the tropical moisture that is shooting up to us.
Tracker your professor sounds like a doom and gloom man. NWS,NHC doesnt seem concerned and the models dont show anything so I doubt there is a careful need to pay attention
LOL Vort posted at the same time. At least I am backed up in my statment by NOAA

LOL....all good!

You're welcome Fire.
OOPS, Wilma came from the gulf!! MY BAD, Especially since she made me homeless for 2 yrs
Yea NE I saw that LOL
your welcome fire
Go to the chat rooms Bone DOg
Quoting NEwxguy:
Kyles convection is being channeled into the tropical moisture that is shooting up to us.
Heres the plume
Tracker calm down man. There is no wilmaesque storm out there nor is there one forecasted.
Quoting TheTracker08:
Hey Bonedog, um there is a THREAT to FL next week!!! my meteorology professor has already mentioned it todaay, and he said, FL needs to watch this CAREFULLY. NOT saying its going to happen, buy any storms that develop from here on in the GULF of Mexico need to be monitered Closely. Remember Wilma? OK!


Be careful, and with all due respect to your Met professor, with the "threat" word on a system that does not even exist yet in spite of long range model runs......
247. TheTracker08 3:44 PM EDT on September 26, 2008
Go to the chat rooms Bone DOg


Ummk thats where we are and might I saw a few people on this board do know me and also know of my knowledge about weather systems so calm down and lets all just get along
#86
Time to Go.......Have a nice weekend and continue contributions to the Ike relief efforts if you can........WW
Easy Tracker take a chill pill
Quoting TheTracker08:

I'm sorry for what happened to you. If you go back to the earlier posts today there were conversations about the system and the players (shear high but expected to relax and dry air and the front that came down and is stationairy and may go back up with the low attached.....) Far more knowledgeable people than me ... And check Tampa's blog he has information on what you are talking about.
Its ok, thanks!!!! But im not saying anything is going to happen but... we need to be alert, this time of year is prime, besides where thiw system looks to exit, shear would be 10kts, it would exit in the NW Carribean. That is why im saying this! But thank you mom, LOL !
Quoting chrisrw:


Obviously not an English student ;-)
He did sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night though
what? , no im not an english student and dont wish to be!

Quoting chrisrw:


Obviously not an English student ;-)



ROFL!!!
I have several other NWS discussions regarding a low in the Gulf next week on my blog from early this morning.
From what I have seen and read there's not much to get worked up about.
Especially since there is no developed low to look at yet.

we'll all be watching to see what happens as we always do.
264. GBlet
Hey Everybody, BONE long time no talky. Something new has happened since you've been on last. We lovingly call it an *iggy*. Tracker SEEYA!!!
can anyone tell me if there is a chance of kyle hitting New York City
I also have a question!!! How could aspiring meteorologists have the gull to say they dont want anything to form!!! It will never sink inside of my mind
Good description Mom of whats going on. Good job :)
Hey GBlet!
I haven't seen you since tornado season.
isiah doesnt look like it.
Thanks GBlet. Nice to see you again too.

iggy thats cool. I just threw the number up LOL
Quoting Engine2:
He did sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night though
ROTFLSHIPMP!
isiah also doesnt appear for us to see any effects from Kyle other then maybe some rain being drawn in from interaction between yesterdays storm and moisture from Kyle.

Nothing for us to worry about.

I say us because I am in NJ so I have been watching
Funny!!! love it!!

Bone,guess some of the new people haven't seen you before since you were blocked.
Complete refresh
All Systems ... Atlantic
New York - NS ... Kyle ... complete with Models
New York - NS ... Kyle ... with Cloud Cover
New York - NS ... Kyle ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
New York - NS ... Kyle ... predicted Landfall
Carols System ... 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
CMC & ... NY City/Maine
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean Part Duex
Guess so NE no biggie. Just as before some folks are doom and gloom and scream the sky is falling at every blip in the models or word of a low out there.
277. GBlet
Vort, how ya doin? Thanks for all the info during nader season! Will be prepping for winter soon, very close to prep for hurricanes.
thanks Bonedog
Quoting Bonedog:
Good description Mom of whats going on. Good job :)
Credit where credit is due it was from IKE and Orca and others filling my brain with knowledge earlier today just repeting what they shared with me. I am loving today I really feel like I have learned more today than the rest of the year. It is a great feeling.
Quoting Bonedog:
isiah also doesnt appear for us to see any effects from Kyle other then maybe some rain being drawn in from interaction between yesterdays storm and moisture from Kyle.

Nothing for us to worry about.

I say us because I am in NJ so I have been watching
Isiah still noteworthy and you should keep an eye on it but Bone is right, doesn't look like we will feel the effects. I'm located out on the Island.
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF>>>Link


Indeed... GOM and W Carib... will be quite active for a couple weeks.
no problem isiah
Quoting Bonedog:
Guess so NE no biggie. Just as before some folks are doom and gloom and scream the sky is falling at every blip in the models or word of a low out there.



Kind of like the CMC,that models spins up a couple of storms each update.
exactly engine. keep a weather eye to the horizon for it but nothing right now that forebodes ill winds
3 Beaches here already closed! Sad.

INDIAN RIVER COUNTY — County officials Thursday closed Golden Sands Beach Park indefinitely in the wake of erosion that undermined the lifeguard tower
Bob Wimmer, a forecaster with the National Weather Service’s Melbourne office, blamed the erosion on an unseasonably early nor’easter churning off the Carolinas. And he said Thursday night’s waves were expected to reach 6 to 9 feet and worsen the erosion.
the dune.
Ring normally watches from inside the lifeguard tower on the dune. But that was leaning out over the beach at a 45-degree angle. A night of 12-foot waves undermined it, eroded the dune and left a 6-foot escarpment along the shore.
“Yesterday was by far the more turbulent water,” he said. “It looked like a washing
machine.”
Beach access in northern Indian River County still is available at the following locations:

Treasure Shores Beach Park, with lifeguards and handicap access, three miles north of County Road 510

Tracking Station Beach Park, with lifeguards, one mile north of Beachland Boulevard

Ambersands Beach Park, unguarded, 2.5 miles north of C.R. 510

Seagrape Trail, unguarded, two miles south of C.R. 510

Turtle Trail, unguarded, 2.5 miles south of C.R. 510

Source: Indian River County Recreation Department
Seems that we are in a news blackout regarding the search and recovery operations in Chambers County TX.

Anyone out there from Winnie, Smith Point or Anahuac?
LOL NE always said CMC stood for Cant Model Crap.

Yes it gets it right sometimes but usuallly over does it every update.

I remeber last winter it kept showing this 924 Low slaming up the East Coast at least once a week
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL NE always said CMC stood for Cant Model Crap.

Yes it gets it right sometimes but usuallly over does it every update.

I remeber last winter it kept showing this 924 Low slaming up the East Coast at least once a week


I have been monitoring the CMC and posting it to the blog now for the last month.. hate to say it.. its been bang on so far.
289. GBlet
Anybody have any ideas on how how to replace my battery Tv, it will no longer work because of the digital crap. It really comes in handy when we have no power and I think we might need it this winter.Oh, BTW I lurk everyday, cuz I'm a JUNKIE!!!
what used to be invest 94 looks better on land then it did over water
i like you orca and NE guy!!
GBlet get a digital converter box. They sell for like 50 to 70 bucks at Walmarts and stuff.

I always wondered what was going to happen after the digital conversion takes place. No way of folks to get updates except through radio.
surf report/wave chart has me getting 5ftrs this Tuesday..... would love the buoy action w/out any major 'cane! Got Surf withdrawal -- just want some fun waves -

Long hard day working outside eastI75, no real humidity, but it was HOT. One horse lame, and another colicking at a friends barn. Change in temps. even for the better, can set a sensitive horse off.

Looks like my SWFL spouse gets to meet Kyle/NYC on his business trip - sigh
Orca you are probably right. Some folks love it others hate it others (such as myself) listen to it when it has backup from other models.

It does very well with analyzing most waves and other lows just seems to over do some of them thats all
Quoting TheTracker08:
i like you orca and NE guy!!
Good, then remain polite, even when you disagree, they can bite your head off if you get full of yourself
hey surfmom. Glad to hear some fun waves heading your way. Go and enjoy them, Ill be out in the line up in spirit LOL
Quoting TheTracker08:
i like you orca and NE guy!!

Ummm ok
293

Good Day Main Mom! Sorry to hear about the horses. What the Hubby go and run off for like that he didn't get enough from Faye?

So you gonna be running out for Milk and bread on Tuesday then I guess ;-)
oh and if you guys are curious, i love hurricanes!!!! i do i do i do!!! and its my passion, and yes i would do anythingg to go through a catagory 1 or 2 again, i hate the death and destruction they cause, thats the downfall i hate!!!! if it werent for that, i would have one for breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner!!
sorry to hear about the work though :(
as far as CMC,I wait for consistency,it spins up a lot of systems,if they continue to show up for several runs,I take note,but a lot of times they just disappear.
i like the way you guys approach things, you guys arent ignorant
Quoting Bonedog:
Orca you are probably right. Some folks love it others hate it others (such as myself) listen to it when it has backup from other models.

It does very well with analyzing most waves and other lows just seems to over do some of them thats all


Granted.. it does inflate the Intensity a bit.. but it has got a good handle on picking them up, and the track. Its had Kyle going to NY from the 240 hour mark
Quoting Orcasystems:

Ummm ok
*looks at Orca* Umm did you get a new pet? I think it needs some training *hands Orca a rolled up newspaper*
305. GBlet
Will have to get a bigger tv, this one is more like a handheld radio.
exactly NE I do the same
Quoting TheTracker08:
oh and if you guys are curious, i love hurricanes!!!! i do i do i do!!! and its my passion, and yes i would do anythingg to go through a catagory 1 or 2 again, i hate the death and destruction they cause, thats the downfall i hate!!!! if it werent for that, i would have one for breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner!!


You are a weird little camper aren't you.
Oh ok gotcha GBlet.
just wanted to stop lurking for a while and wish everyone a GREAT weekend. We have been really busy at work and I have not had the time to say anything, but I am always reading!!!
ahhhh you remembered... but then with him away -- I get to play -- I also work for/with him....in the home business. Felixble Sched....but no sick days... Horsework is on the side
GBlet, the small battery TV's set up for digital are close to 300 right now, Should be out with some MUCH cheaper ones after the first of the year. They are great when you lose power for short period of time.
Quoting Bonedog:
GBlet get a digital converter box. They sell for like 50 to 70 bucks at Walmarts and stuff.

I always wondered what was going to happen after the digital conversion takes place. No way of folks to get updates except through radio.


The Gov is gving vouchers for them, not sure who to go to though.
Quoting TheTracker08:
oh and if you guys are curious, i love hurricanes!!!! i do i do i do!!! and its my passion, and yes i would do anythingg to go through a catagory 1 or 2 again, i hate the death and destruction they cause, thats the downfall i hate!!!! if it werent for that, i would have one for breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner!!


i agree with The tracker i have been tracking hurricane since age 5 and have seen some amazing things and some sad thing
Quoting surfmom:
ahhhh you remembered... but then with him away -- I get to play -- I also work for/with him....in the home business. Felixble Sched....but no sick days... Horsework is on the side
But sometimes it is more fun when you are doing it as a sneak away ;-) Tell him to stay dry
Orcasystems 4:21 PM EDT on September 26, 2008


You are a weird little camper aren't you


LOL Thats funny right there I dont care who you are
I dont' know about eating hurricanes, I think they might leave a few splinters in my tongue. Also, all that water may make me look too bloated. I think I'll stick with my usual FOOD!
well, as we know with ALL models - got to take it w/grain of salt..... the waves aren't here yet...but I';m thinking I'll get something. gulf temp by me is 80 degrees.... now after it being 86 degrees I'm finding that rather cool - still warm enough for hurricanes, but cool enough I'm already pulling out my longsleeve rashguard. I paddled yesterday and I got cold
318. GBlet
That little tv has been the best gag gift I have ever gotten! My best friend thinks I am a weather "FREAK", so she bought for our motorcycle trips. Needless to say, I LOVE IT. A true lifesaver and I will miss the poor little thing.
Quoting Bonedog:
Orcasystems 4:21 PM EDT on September 26, 2008


You are a weird little camper aren't you


LOL Thats funny right there I dont care who you are


Gasp.. Larry the Cable guy.. my hero :)
https://www.dtv2009.gov/ for converter box coupon but you have to have power for it one option is those 3 hour charge power sources they are not that expensive and might work for longer than 3 hours with just the converter box on it since sure it takes less power than a laptop which is what the 3 hour rating is in line with.
LOl surfmom hearing you say 80 is cool and need the long sleeves is funny. Especially that its mid 50s water temps lately and the guys are still out there.

I have to upload some great shots I got this winter of a guy getting tubed off some Nor'Easter waves. Water temp was 42 degrees and the air temp was upper 30s LOL
glad you got it Orca :) I was afraid folks wouldn't
323. melly
You guys make me laugh,

By the way: "Does this hurricane make my butt look big"
Quoting Bonedog:
LOl surfmom hearing you say 80 is cool and need the long sleeves is funny. Especially that its mid 50s water temps lately and the guys are still out there.

I have to upload some great shots I got this winter of a guy getting tubed off some Nor'Easter waves. Water temp was 42 degrees and the air temp was upper 30s LOL


Just looked at your blog:
Noteworthy Events
Strong Wide Spread Winds (15-25mph gusts to 35)
Tidal Departures Ahead Of System (up to 1ft above MAT)
Tidal Blow Out In Wake Of System (up to 1.5ft below MLLW)
Heavy Precipitation (1 to 1.25 QPF)

I will update as needed.


I believe an update is needed :)


LOL Melly
Quoting melly:
You guys make me laugh,

By the way: "Does this hurricane make my butt look big"
ROTFLSHIPMP!!!! A coworker came in right as I read that and just busted out laughing in her face...
Quoting melly:
You guys make me laugh,

By the way: "Does this hurricane make my butt look big"


Umm depends.. you front into the wind.... umm or back into the wind?

I have been married long enough not to have to say.. No dear.
LOL Orca yea havent done a new blog in a long while.

Now that i am able to acess this site again from work I will be sure to start the Nor'Easter blogs again
Domestics and young buck males in need - fishhook in the back reeling me into the kitchen. Wishing for Kyle to snuff himself out in the Atlantic and a good enough, not bad enough storm to throw some waves my way. Take Care All - continued thoughts to those who are recovering from Ike. www.portlight.org - direct donations to people in need
new blog
Quoting Bonedog:
fire checking all the models didnt see any threat for florida on any of them


Except for nogaps which has something on the tip of Yucatan 5 days from now.... (insert your opinion of unreliablity of model and also so far out here)
We're now in a flood advisory in eastern parts,really raining right now.
333. melly
surfmom.Here in Palm Beach county we don't call them young bucks....We refer them as
"Silverbacks"
321Bonedog - I'm tough, but that would KILL me. Quickly! I have learned that under 50degrees is just not good for me. I get sick, or I just start shaking -- there ain't enough neoprene (other then a dry suit) to keep me warm.
I thought silverbacks were the Alpha Gorilla's---
the Patriarch

I call older/just before alpha pack leaders young bucks....they don't quite have their full antlers yet, but they are constantly head butting.... or testing the waters 24/7
336. melly
surfmom....Silverbacks beat theirs chests, Drink Bud, Drive 4WD Fords, have a Pit Bull, and call their girlfriends "Oldlady" I know that for a fact. I used to be married to one.. "Used To" in quotes
Quoting Tigerose:
GBlet, the small battery TV's set up for digital are close to 300 right now, Should be out with some MUCH cheaper ones after the first of the year. They are great when you lose power for short period of time.


I just got a 7" protable digital TV a month ago at Best Buy for $159..works great and picks up about 70 hd and digital channels
338. melly
SFLgirl... I will have a great deal on a battery powered 5" screen TV February 17th.
It can make my butt look big... just needs to leave my chest alone!! BTW, can you imagine kissing someone with a hurricane splintered tongue?
94L has brought very much needed and appreciated rains to our area today (WNC and Upstate SC). A little breezy at times, but in general, a light to moderate, continual rain event.
Thank you isiah23!!!!!! Atleast someone out there understands me!!!! You will make an excellent Meteorologist!!1
Thank hurracajun!!! funny!!!! lolololol!!! but you have too admit!! it is food for thought! lol
OK GUYS!!!!! do you all think that the systems will develop? if so why or why not? lol