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Koppu Pulling Away from Philippines; TD 20-E May Threaten Mexico

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 6:03 PM GMT on October 20, 2015

Tropical Storm Koppu (known as Lando in the Philippines) is now arcing slowly around the northern tip of Luzon island after dumping prodigious amounts of rain over the last three days. At 15Z Tuesday (11:00 pm local time), Koppu was located at 19.2°N, 121.0°E, about 40 miles north of the north-central coast of Luzon. Koppu’s top sustained winds were down to 50 mph, but the storm should be able to maintain that strength for the next day as it crawls to the east. This will keep the island in moist westerly flow, so some additional rain is possible over already-soggy areas.


Figure 1. Residents remove mud near their house after heavy rains brought about by Typhoon Koppu inundated homes in Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija province, north of Manila on October 20, 2015, days after the typhoon hit Aurora province. Image credit: Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 2. A man paddles a makeshift raft made from banana trunks over a flooded rice field at Barangay Camanutan, Isabela province, north of Manila on October 19, 2015, a day after Typhoon Koppu hit Aurora province. Residents of flooded farming villages in the Philippines were trapped on their rooftops October 19 and animals floated down fast-rising rivers. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Damage over the last three days from Koppu’s landfall and subsequent flooding is still being assessed, but weather.com reports that at least 28 people have died. Nearly all buildings and infrastructure sustained damage in the city of Casiguran, close to where Koppu came ashore. It appears that much of Koppu’s heavy rain stayed just offshore, but the upslope flow against the west side of Luzon’s mountains has been enough to generate immense local amounts, triggering mudslides and floods affecting the mountains as well as adjacent lowlands. The city of Baguio racked up 40.37” of rain through Tuesday afternoon, according to weather.com. A few miles south of Baguio, the massive San Roque Dam (the largest dam in the Philippines, and the world’s twentieth largest) had plenty of water to deal with. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive set of extreme temperature records on his website, pulled the following preliminary amounts for San Roque Dam from real-time data collected over a 24-hour period at the height of Koppu.

30 minutes: 66 mm (2.60”)
1 hour: 122 mm (4.80”)
6 hours: 483 mm (19.02”)
12 hours: 717 mm (28.23”)
18 hours: 1093 mm (43.03”)
24 hours: 1317 mm (51.85”)

If confirmed, these would set new 12- and 24-hour rainfall records for the Philippines, beating the records set during a July 1911 typhoon that dumped more than 2200 mm (87”) on Baguio in less than four days. Few other places on Earth have reported heavier amounts for half- and full-day periods. The world records of 1144 mm (45.04”) for 12 hours and 1825 mm (71.85”) for 24 hours were both set at the remote site of Foc-Foc on La Réunion island in the South Indian Ocean on January 7-8, 1966.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of TD 20-E.

Tropical Depression 20-E forms; expected to hit Mexico as a hurricane
Tropical Depression 20-E formed at 11 am EDT Tuesday in Mexico's Pacific waters about about 445 east-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, and appears poised to intensify into Hurricane Patricia later this week. TD 20-E is under light wind shear, has very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) to work with, and an atmosphere rich in moisture at mid-levels. These conditions should promote rapid intensification once TD 20-E gets well-organized and develops an inner core. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed that TD 20-E was poorly organized, with only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and just the beginning of low-level spiral bands beginning to form. TD 20-E will move west-northwest, parallel to the coast today through Thursday, then turn abruptly inland to the north on Friday as it gets pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure.


Figure 4. MODIS image of Hurricane Olaf in the waters 1300 east-southeast of Hawaii as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Monday, October 19, 2015 at 19:35 UTC. At the time, Olaf was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Olaf hits Category 4
Hurricane Olaf intensified into a major Category 4 hurricane on Monday at 5 pm EDT in the waters about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, becoming the the Northern Hemisphere's record-setting 21st Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of 2015 (previous record: eighteen in 2004, according to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach.) Only one of those twenty Category 4 and 5 storms--Hurricane Joaquin--came from the Atlantic. Olaf is also notable for its low latitude. Coincidentally, the two most equatorward Category 4 cyclones on record for the Western Hemisphere share the same name: this year’s Hurricane Olaf (10.0°N) and 2005’s Cyclone Olaf (10.0°S).

By Tuesday morning at 5 am EDT, Olaf’s top sustained winds had increased to 150 mph, where they were holding through 11 am EDT. No other Northeast Pacific storm on record has been this strong any later than September 6, according to Klotzbach and Blake. An additional increase in winds of 10 mph would bring Olaf to Category 5 status, but Tuesday afternoon satellite loops showed a modest warming of the cloud tops, indicating that Olaf had likely peaked in strength. Olaf is likely to turn to the north by this weekend well east of Hawaii. Latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and European models keep Olaf moving to the northeast next week, away from Hawaii.

Accumulated cyclone energy: The Pacific has it
The hyperactive Pacific is reflected in year-to-date statistics on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) compiled by Phil Klotzbach using data from the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center. ACE takes into account the strength as well as the longevity of tropical cyclones, but not their size. Through October 19, the Northeast Pacific ACE (184% of year-to-date average) was on track to end up in second place behind 1992; the Northwest Pacific ACE (189% of year-to-date average) was at record levels for the time of year; and the Central Pacific ACE was at an astounding 606% of its year-to-date average, partly a reflection of the many years that feature little activity in that basin. Within the next day or so, according to Klotzbach, Hurricane Olaf should push the Central Pacific past 1994 to set the basin’s all-time seasonal record. The North Atlantic is at a mere 62% of its year-to-date average, but the prolific Pacific has still pushed the entire Northern Hemisphere to a new year-to-date ACE record as of October 20, says Klotzbach.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M!
Thanks doks!


Olaf looks like it has weakened a little bit over the past few hours, cloud tops around the center have warmed and the eye has been wobbling & was temporarily cloud-filled. Also the inflow from the north has diminished significantly. Obviously only a minor fluctuation, will be interesting to see if it can still hit Cat 5.
Quoting 3. fabian171017:



Olaf looks like it has weakened a little bit over the past few hours, cloud tops around the center have warmed and the eye has been wobbling & was temporarily cloud-filled. Also the inflow from the north has diminished significantly. Obviously only a minor fluctuation, will be interesting to see if it can still hit Cat 5.


Well, that might be because of intensification
I think the typhoon that hit the Philippines might break a world record for most rain dumped by a typhoon
Quoting The Dynamic Duo:

the Central Pacific ACE was at an astounding 606% of its year-to-date average


:o

Love these little slices of data... they can be woven into a rich tapestry that may someday be used to initiate some climate impact rethinking on a global and political scale.
Quoting 6. LongIslandBeaches:



:o

Love these little slices of data... they can be woven into a rich tapestry to maybe someday initiate some climate impact rethinking on a global and political scale.


Its the 2005 equivalent of our season. :D
Quoting 3. fabian171017:



Olaf looks like it has weakened a little bit over the past few hours, cloud tops around the center have warmed and the eye has been wobbling & was temporarily cloud-filled. Also the inflow from the north has diminished significantly. Obviously only a minor fluctuation, will be interesting to see if it can still hit Cat 5.


no weaking in sight for right now winds are holding

EP, 19, 2015102018, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1417W, 130, 938, HU

150mph may be the peak
12Z Euro slams Olaf into Northern California as a strong system. This combined with a super strong ENSO is causing complete mayham in the models.

LOL! This pattern spells serious trouble for the US! Intense Olaf slamming into Northern California and this causes the jet to plunge south.



Quoting 9. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro slams Olaf into Northern California as a strong system. This combined with a super strong ENSO is causing complete mayham in the models.

LOL! This pattern spells serious trouble for the US! Intense Olaf slamming into Northern California and this causes the jet to plunge south.






I don't see a storm slamming into North California.
For Olaf, it's probably peaked at 150. Sorry, no Cat 5...
Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:

Rut Roh




OK, I see a system near the CA\NV border now.
Quoting 11. 62901IL:



I don't see a storm slamming into North California.


I'm on Weatherbell and @ 192hrs its just off the coast. As this happens the northern jet fuses with the southern jet either in the Gulf or across the Eastern US depending on what model you look it. Either way a big storm is seeming likely for the Eastern US early to mid next week.
Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:



I'm on Weatherbell and @ 192hrs its just off the coast. As this happens the northern jet fuses with the southern jet either in the Gulf or across the Eastern US depending on what model you look it. Either way a big storm is seeming likely for the Eastern US early to mid next week.


Whoa. Thanks for sharing!
Quoting 14. 62901IL:



OK, I see a system near the CA\NV border now.


If you love erratic weather then you will love next week. Severe weather with cold strong northerly winds behind this system.
Quoting 9. StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro slams Olaf into Northern California as a strong system. This combined with a super strong ENSO is causing complete mayham in the models.

Welcome to changing weather patterns related to (but not specifically caused by) AGW/CC, Scott. Expect more crazy weather - whiplash weather as Dr. Masters calls it - from now on.

A one degree rise in global average surface temps - which we are approaching - as well as increasing SST's and ocean heat content, puts a lot more water vapor and energy into the atmosphere.
Quoting 8. Tazmanian:



no weaking in sight for right now winds are holding

EP, 19, 2015102018, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1417W, 130, 938, HU

150mph may be the peak



Olaf looks like it might be starting its turn in the last few frames. This would put it right on its projected path.
Quoting 17. StormTrackerScott:



If you love erratic weather then you will love next week. Severe weather with cold strong northerly winds behind this system.


I can handle severe weather, not that second part though. Yuck.
Quoting 18. Xulonn:

Welcome to changing weather patterns related to (but not specifically caused by) AGW/CC, Scott. Expect more crazy weather - whiplash weather as Dr. Masters calls it - from now on.

A one degree rise in global average surface temps - which we are approaching - as well as increasing SST's and ocean heat content, puts a lot more water vapor and energy into the atmosphere.


2.5C El-Nino which is likely the main reason for this wild scenario coming. Not to say AGW isn't @ play too but this wild weather coming up is directly related to El-Nino being so strong.
Quoting 20. Astrometeor:



I can handle severe weather, not that second part though. Yuck.


Euro is showing freezes way far south on this run.
51"in 24 hours and we freak out when we see a few inches of rain in one day.
Thanks guys...I do believe Mexico is in for a rather compact, but major hurricane.. Latest Euro has it down to 980 mb, but I would bet that is an underestimation with those type of water temps..U.S. weather is going to get really strange within a month or so...jmo

Here come the Tweets from the weather community. Fun times ahead.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
large model flips in extended range Days 7-9 typical w/high amp flow. Be 3-4 days before nailed down d(model)/dt


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8m8 minutes ago
We'll be watching this for next week ...
Arctic blast mid/late next week somewhere over eastern Lower 48
Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:

Rut Roh



That map looks friggin crazy. You have a longwave trough in the Eastern 2/3rds with vorticies in the Gulf of mexico too. WOW! I tell you I really love wild weather but this looks extreme!!
Euro beginning to show a second system just after day 10 which appears it wants to move across the Gulf. Yikes as there will be very cold air in place when this ejects out.

Quoting 26. WeatherConvoy:


That map looks friggin crazy. You have a longwave trough in the Eastern 2/3rds with vorticies in the Gulf of mexico too. WOW! I tell you I really love wild weather but this looks extreme!!



I suspect there is going to be severe weather ongoing if the Euro pans out. If the GFS pans out then the severe potential will be confined to just FL and coastal Carolina's.
Quoting 28. StormTrackerScott:



I suspect there is going to be severe weather ongoing if the Euro pans out. If the GFS pans out then the severe potential will be confined to just FL and coastal Carolina's.
Mid west will have some severe weather Thursday.
Quoting 29. hydrus:

Mid west will have some severe weather Thursday.


True but there could be a larger potential next week. Euro has a much larger area of the SE US being impacted compared to the GFS.
Quoting 25. StormTrackerScott:

Here come the Tweets from the weather community. Fun times ahead.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
large model flips in extended range Days 7-9 typical w/high amp flow. Be 3-4 days before nailed down d(model)/dt


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8m8 minutes ago
We'll be watching this for next week ...
Arctic blast mid/late next week somewhere over eastern Lower 48

Yep. Mentioned that on the last blog entry...Winter is coming in spades chief.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago
Joe Bastardi Retweeted Ryan Maue
Pushing double recurve of typhoons to clients. Went out with major cold shot in this period for east
So an arctic blast next week with low pressures in the GOM riding up the east coast= Massive blizzard with major tree damage with leaves still on trees and power outages. Nah!! it's just models folks...carry on.
Quoting 31. hydrus:

Yep. Mentioned that on the last blog entry...Winter is coming in spades chief.


Crazy. Models also show a Sandy type scenario with Olaf across Northern California. There is a little something for everyone on here coming. -minus the feet of snow though!
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:



Crazy. Models also show a Sandy type scenario with Olaf across Northern California. There is a little something for everyone on here coming.


what do you mean Sandy type scenario for CA
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago
Joe Bastardi Retweeted Ryan Maue
Pushing double recurve of typhoons to clients. Went out with major cold shot in this period for east
Weather models skill drop when typhoons recurve and that's why they are flipping so much.
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:



2.5C El-Nino which is likely the main reason for this wild scenario coming. Not to say AGW isn't @ play too but this wild weather coming up is directly related to El-Nino being so strong.


I agree. The El Nino aside, what do you think warmed the oceans so much? The oscillations do not create, nor do they destroy heat energy. They work entirely within the heat content of the oceans.
Quoting 33. Grothar:




Olaf is really what unlocks this stormy pattern for the US. Cali getting hit hard on the 12Z runs something you never see from a system riding up from the deep tropics. As Olaf heads into the West Coast the jet responds by diving south across the Central US combining with a Gulf system this could be a March 13th 1993 set up.
We have incoming...

Low pressure wrapping up kicking out of Arizona, and looks like event is about to start over the central US as the days progress
Quoting 36. Tazmanian:



what do you mean Sandy type scenario for CA


You should look @ the Euro and GFS both have Olaf coming ashore across northern California.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
Destructive interference pattern with El Nino setting up in the 11-15 day period due to intraseasonal variability
Quoting 38. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I agree. The El Nino aside, what do you think warmed the oceans so much? The oscillations do not create, nor do they destroy heat energy. They work entirely within the heat content of the oceans.


I agree to have 10 weeks so far of greater than 2C anomalies across Nino 3.4 has never been seen so early in a Super El-Nino. It just goes to show the oceans are sustaining lots of heat for longer periods of time.
Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:



You should look @ the Euro and GFS both have Olaf coming ashore across northern California.


this is all is lift of olaf so am not sure what you are seeing




yes it gives CA rain but olny for the N part of CA why the rest is dry the GFS had a 1011mb low and that is bar far no Sandy type scenario un less am missing some in what did the Euro show i dont have them models
Powerful SW jet stream aloft over Mexico as seen by visible satellite loops. Rapidly moving from SW to NE with jet streaks in the cirrus.

Lots of lightning ongoing in the SW
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:



Crazy. Models also show a Sandy type scenario with Olaf across Northern California. There is a little something for everyone on here coming. -minus the feet of snow though!


Sandy-type scenario?

What models are you watching?
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:



Crazy. Models also show a Sandy type scenario with Olaf across Northern California. There is a little something for everyone on here coming. -minus the feet of snow though!
I am not sure about what you mean by Sandy scenario. I do not believe it will be the typical El Nino pattern for California with the warm water anomalies. It will be more of the same, with ridging to stay quasi stational over the extreme west and the eastern half being affected by persistent trof set up..You mentioned the phasing of the jets, which once again looks feasible for the eastern third.
Quoting 314. FunnelVortex:



When did they say the El Nino was going to start weakening?


From the EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, 8 October 2015:

"There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016."

El Nino does not typically peak until after the winter holidays, and there is no basis for predicting a La Nina will immediately follow.
Quoting 37. Gearsts:

Weather models skill drop when typhoons recurve and that's why they are flipping so much.
There are three systems that will affect the pattern within a week or so, and possibly a fourth.
Quoting 51. BayFog:

Quoting 314. FunnelVortex:



When did they say the El Nino was going to start weakening?


From the EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, 8 October 2015:

"There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016."

El Nino does not typically peak until after the winter holidays, and there is no basis for predicting a La Nina will immediately follow.


The OP said it was going to just weaken next month. And that didn't seem right
Quoting 49. Gearsts:


We had that similar pattern here in 2007..Very cold for late October/early November.. The wind added more misery to the already very cold temps.
Quoting 47. FunnelVortex:



Sandy-type scenario?

What models are you watching?

Not the Euro. It shows Olaf petering out at sea. Of course, it's not infallible. It had Olaf recurving northward days ago when it's actually continuing westward, albeit with a slight northward drift in the last few frames.
Quoting 53. FunnelVortex:



The OP said it was going to just weaken next month. And that didn't seem right

Yeah, the ocean just doesn't cool down that easily. I recall that the strong El Nino in the 1980s had lingering effects into the following winter.
Quoting 48. hydrus:

I am not sure about what you mean by Sandy scenario. I do not believe it will be the typical El Nino pattern for California with the warm water anomalies. It will be more of the same, with ridging to stay quasi stational over the extreme west and the eastern half being affected by persistent trof set up..You mentioned the phasing of the jets, which once again looks feasible for the eastern third.


I know what he meant. He meant a storm that seems to be going out to sea, but then hooks back to land. Sandy headed out to sea, then hooked left into Jersey. Scott, I believe is seeing Olaf head out, then hook right into Cali. Bit implausible, I think, especially with the cold waters (anomalies aren't going to stop cold apparent temperatures here).
Quoting 55. BayFog:


Not the Euro. It shows Olaf petering out at sea. Of course, it's not infallible. It had Olaf recurving northward days ago when it's actually continuing westward, albeit with a slight northward drift in the last few frames.
It is late in the year for any long westward tracking hurricanes, but Olaf has been moving west for much longer than usual at around 10 degrees north, providing it with warm water and little influence from other weather systems.
Quoting 57. Astrometeor:



I know what he meant. He meant a storm that seems to be going out to sea, but then hooks back to land. Sandy headed out to sea, then hooked left into Jersey. Scott, I believe is seeing Olaf head out, then hook right into Cali. Bit implausible, I think, especially with the cold waters (anomalies aren't going to stop cold apparent temperatures here).


He should still avoid using words like "Sandy scenario" to describe it.

Unless there is a tilted trough and players set up similarly to Sandy, it won't be a Sandy scenario.
Quoting 57. Astrometeor:



I know what he meant. He meant a storm that seems to be going out to sea, but then hooks back to land. Sandy headed out to sea, then hooked left into Jersey. Scott, I believe is seeing Olaf head out, then hook right into Cali. Bit implausible, I think, especially with the cold waters (anomalies aren't going to stop cold apparent temperatures here).


Yeah Olaf gets captured by the trough @ day 7 or 8 then hooks into the Western US. I agree seems impossible but who would of thought a system would have traveled toward Alaska just last week. Forget the name though.

Euro pulls it into the trough. As this happens a large strong wind field develops.
Quoting 50. RitaEvac:

Lots of lightning ongoing in the SW
Yep. Lightening there usually means severe weather for the plains.

Quoting 57. Astrometeor:



I know what he meant. He meant a storm that seems to be going out to sea, but then hooks back to land. Sandy headed out to sea, then hooked left into Jersey. Scott, I believe is seeing Olaf head out, then hook right into Cali. Bit implausible, I think, especially with the cold waters (anomalies aren't going to stop cold apparent temperatures here).

Sandy was also different in that it went extra-tropical just as it phased with a strong negatively tilted trough and frontal system and headed westward. The only way a tropical system gets ashore in California, despite the cooler water (which is actually anomolously mild again this year), is if it gets caught in the deep layer westerly flow along a front, bringing not just its upper level blowoff , but the entire tropical air column. If it happens to do this when there's a strong negatively-tilted trough aimed at the California coast, then the winds might also be present, albeit as part of an extra-tropical development. It would be highly unusual, to say the least. The orographic rainfall would be epic in the coast ranges and the Sierras.
OK, the Euro...


Note the cold temperatures across Western Europe, Siberia and eastern North America with warm temperatures across much of western and Central North America and Eastern Siberia.
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah Olaf gets captured by the trough @ day 7 or 8 then hooks into the Western US. I agree seems impossible but who would of thought a system would have traveled toward Alaska just last week. Forget the name though.

Euro pulls it into the trough. As this happens a large strong wind field develops.

I'm not seeing anything like that at the Euro site, at least thru Oct.29.
Quoting 64. BayFog:


I'm not seeing anything like that at the Euro site, at least thru Oct.29.

Huh?







Tampa Bay area thru 10/27
Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:



Olaf is really what unlocks this stormy pattern for the US. Cali getting hit hard on the 12Z runs something you never see from a system riding up from the deep tropics. As Olaf heads into the West Coast the jet responds by diving south across the Central US combining with a Gulf system this could be a March 13th 1993 set up.


Scott, please. You know I'm on serious heart medication!!
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:


Huh?







Nope. Take a look wayyyy down to the lower left of those maps. You'll find remnant Olaf. The low coming into the PacNW is associated with the mid-latitude flow. Earlier runs of the Euro had that low coming to the California coast, but now it's going further north.
Quoting 62. BayFog:

The only way a tropical system gets ashore in California, despite the cooler water (which is actually anomolously mild again this year) . . .

Actually that part is not correct. Waters 2.5 (plus) C over most of the storm's forecasted track - all the way to the coast.

Quoting 67. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area thru 10/27


They r likely going to change those graphics for next week once models come more in line. Still a ways out but it looks to start turning wet around here come Tuesday.

Quoting 70. VibrantPlanet:


Actually that part is not correct. Waters 2.5 (plus) C over most of the storm's forecasted track - all the way to the coast.



Not all the way to the coast. The offshore buoys along the California coast show temps ranging from 58.5 F (14.7 C) at Eureka, to 61.3 F (16.2 C) off San Francisco, to 64.2 F (17.8 C) off Monterey, to 67.8 F (19.8 C) off Point Conception, to 68 F (20 F) in the Channel Islands.

Moreover, the depth of the milder SSTs further offshore is relatively shallow, too shallow to sustain a tropical system, unless of course it's moving pretty fast, and that only happens if it's caught in a baroclinic flow, in which case, it's already undergoing extratropical transition.

Another exception MIGHT be an unusual annular storm, but even that's problematical once it hits sub-25 C SSTs.
Quoting 51. BayFog:

Quoting 314. FunnelVortex:



When did they say the El Nino was going to start weakening?


From the EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, 8 October 2015:

"There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016."

El Nino does not typically peak until after the winter holidays, and there is no basis for predicting a La Nina will immediately follow. Hi Bay, I was just looking at the Nino models the other day on WB, and it was showing the Nino peaking the end of this month into November. It was on their premium site and it also shows a Nino ending and becoming a Nina in the late summer. Also if you have access to the NCEP temp models which show actual satellite temp reading every 6 hrs. it's really a nice chart to read as you get the actual temps over a long period of time everty 6 hrs.
Quoting 53. FunnelVortex:



The OP said it was going to just weaken next month. And that didn't seem right
Funnel, look on JB's premium site, it was posted a couple days ago, according to the chart we will be in a weak Nina by the end of next summer. If it is wrong than my forecast will only be off by 10 months or so, not like a couple years by some bloggers on here.
Quoting 67. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area thru 10/27


Love the weather. Beautiful week ahead. My favorite time to be on the course. Was going to play yesterday but the wind was crazy strong.
Quoting 73. NativeSun:


Ok. you wont let me post where I read the info, there will be a La Nina by late summer of 2016 according to charts on another website.
Quoting 74. NativeSun:

Funnel, look on JB's premium site, it was posted a couple days ago, according to the chart we will be in a weak Nina by the end of next summer. If it is wrong than my forecast will only be off by 10 months or so, not like a couple years by some bloggers on here.


You are gonna trust JB? lol
Quoting 69. BayFog:


Nope. Take a look wayyyy down to the lower left of those maps. You'll find remnant Olaf. The low coming into the PacNW is associated with the mid-latitude flow. Earlier runs of the Euro had that low coming to the California coast, but now it's going further north.


No that is Olaf.
Quoting 75. luvtogolf:



Love the weather. Beautiful week ahead. My favorite time to be on the course. Was going to play yesterday but the wind was crazy strong.


Just walked off the course over here in S.W. Florida. The weather was perfect. Bright sunshine, mild temperatures, low humidity, and a nice breeze.
Super Typhoon Champi drifting north towards a baroclinic zone and associated strong jet along 35 N. If and when Champi gets to that, it will accelerate eastward in a deep layer flow.

Quoting 77. FunnelVortex:



You are gonna trust JB? lol
JB is not always wrong as some would like to think..He does get it right, and all Mets have likely missed the target where forecasting is concerned..Its a learning process, and he has been doing it a long time.
Olaf, still moving more westward than forecast, with a slight northward component now.
Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:



Olaf is really what unlocks this stormy pattern for the US. Cali getting hit hard on the 12Z runs something you never see from a system riding up from the deep tropics. As Olaf heads into the West Coast the jet responds by diving south across the Central US combining with a Gulf system this could be a March 13th 1993 set up.


This is what March 13,1993 looked like. I don't see the similarity.

Here you go luvtogolf
Just a littler earlier today. Beautiful day for golf over here in S.W. Florida .
You're looking north and there was a nice breeze going from right to left.
Sorting through all the super doom and adding some normalcy&calmness is just to expect a colder than average period come the end of October into November with higher than normal chance of a period with perhaps above normal precipitation.All of this is still 8-10 days away.
Quoting 54. hydrus:

We had that similar pattern here in 2007..Very cold for late October/early November.. The wind added more misery to the already very cold temps.
i see some white and blue near the southern tip of the florida peninsula can anyone translate it for me please?is it gonna be cold or not according to that model?? thanks,btw hi hydrus! :)
Quoting 61. hydrus:

Yep. Lightening there usually means severe weather for the plains.


nice upper level low, wondering if it will traverse the southern part of the u.s and ride up the coast to the northeast
Quoting 84. Sfloridacat5:

Here you go luvtogolf
Just a littler earlier today. Beautiful day for golf over here in S.W. Florida .


which course?
Quoting 82. BayFog:

Olaf, still moving more westward than forecast, with a slight northward component now.



Its that trough NW of Hawaii that shots Olaf North. Talk about a interesting 7 days ahead.
Quoting 88. MonsterTrough:


which course?


Gateway Country Club Golf Course in Fort Myers.
Quoting 84. Sfloridacat5:

Here you go luvtogolf
Just a littler earlier today. Beautiful day for golf over here in S.W. Florida .
You're looking north and there was a nice breeze going from right to left.



Love it!!
Quoting 54. hydrus:

We had that similar pattern here in 2007..Very cold for late October/early November.. The wind added more misery to the already very cold temps.


October 2007 was outlier warm in the Middle Atlantic, over 8F above normal. In DC metro it was the warmest in the 140 year record. There was a three day heat wave with highs over 90F columbus day weekend (and I had the kids at the beach). Most of the month averaged above normal but departures were larger in the first half.

The warmest October week remains from 1940 or 1941 where the first week averaged over 80F, warmer
than normal summer temps here. There was no week THAT warm in Oct 2007 but there was no real coolness eaither in 2007.
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah Olaf gets captured by the trough @ day 7 or 8 then hooks into the Western US. I agree seems impossible but who would of thought a system would have traveled toward Alaska just last week. Forget the name though.

Euro pulls it into the trough. As this happens a large strong wind field develops.


This is baroclinic transition of a large areal extent tropical cyclone. Not unprecedented.
Quoting 92. georgevandenberghe:



October 2007 was outlier warm in the Middle Atlantic, over 8F above normal. In DC metro it was the warmest in the 140 year record. There was a three day heat wave with highs over 90F columbus day weekend (and I had the kids at the beach). Most of the month averaged above normal but departures were larger in the first half.

The warmest October week remains from 1940 or 1941 where the first week averaged over 80F, warmer
than normal summer temps here. There was no week THAT warm in Oct 2007 but there was no real coolness eaither in 2007.

Yep..I went to TN to do some painting on the house..Good thing it was inside and not outside. I remember asking the locals if it was always this cold by early November..They said no, that it was rare, but not unheard of.
Quoting 90. Sfloridacat5:



Gateway Country Club Golf Course in Fort Myers.


Sweet. The courses I played on vaca 15 years ago, were nowhere near that nice! Hit em long and straight Sflcat5.

It's 74 and sunny in Indy, time to continue painting the home.
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:



Its that trough NW of Hawaii that shots Olaf North. Talk about a interesting 7 days ahead.

That trough is only forecast to weaken the ridge to the north of Olaf. It's another trough behind it that's forecast to break the ridge down, allowing a forecast recurvature. But there's nothing in the forecast right now to indicate it gets anywhere near California. For instance, here's the forecast position in five days (Oct 25): "120H 25/1800Z 22.8N 145.1W 60 KT 70 MPH".

That's close to the latitude of the Tropic of Cancer, which is about 23.5 N, about the latitude of the northern Hawaiian Islands.
Quoting 81. hydrus:

JB is not always wrong as some would like to think..He does get it right, and all Mets have likely missed the target where forecasting is concerned..Its a learning process, and he has been doing it a long time.


Fair enough, but what is the target? Always improving indeed. Only as good as the naked eye, advanced math and model runs. Man and machine have become very good at figuring out nature, but nature will always be one step ahead.
Quoting 93. georgevandenberghe:



This is baroclinic transition of a large areal extent tropical cyclone. Not unprecedented.


On further examination one thing that bothers me is that the areal extent of the storm is at the lower end of what usually transitions to a baroclinic wave. It's small. It also, at least in the GFS, retains a small warm core all the way to the west coast and it does not perturb the thickness field much. Haven't had much time
to do a thorough analysis but the simplistic huge TC to midlatitude cyclone explanation may be too simplistic for this case.

Look at this. That's Olaf at 45 kts making landfall in northern California on the 12Z 204 hour GFS. Certainly not likely to occur, but it would really be something if it did! 995 - 996 mb range, too.
Quoting 100. Hurricane4Caster:


Look at this. That's Olaf at 45 kts making landfall in northern California on the 12Z 204 hour GFS. Certainly not likely to occur, but it would really be something if it did! 995 - 996 mb range, too.

It would be something if it verified. We shall see.
Local NWS office is not buying into the Olaf scenario yet.

"...THE CURRENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS40 ARE FORECASTING A STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO OUR AREA.
BUT NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE FORECAST MODELS
TEND TO STRUGGLE AND BOUNCE AROUND WITH LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. "
Quoting 98. DeepSeaRising:



Fair enough, but what is the target? Always improving indeed. Only as good as the naked eye, advanced math and model runs. Man and machine have become very good at figuring out nature, but nature will always be one step ahead.
There was no target, I simply made a observation and a comment.
Of course I could be wrong but I'll say it anyway. 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season R.I.P.
Quoting 102. BayFog:

Local NWS office is not buying into the Olaf scenario yet.

"...THE CURRENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS40 ARE FORECASTING A STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO OUR AREA.
BUT NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE FORECAST MODELS
TEND TO STRUGGLE AND BOUNCE AROUND WITH LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. "



thats a old ADF from this AM new ones are this now coming out
Southflorida 2015 Rainy Season R.I.P.
Looks like we have Patricia.
Quoting 81. hydrus:

JB is not always wrong as some would like to think..He does get it right, and all Mets have likely missed the target where forecasting is concerned..Its a learning process, and he has been doing it a long time.

JB is proof, if any were needed, that meteorology and theology do not mix. The man needs to take an extended time out and contemplate just how far down the Yellow Brick Road he has traveled.
Quoting 83. MrNatural:



This is what March 13,1993 looked like. I don't see the similarity.


Oh God are we seriously getting people to compare this event to the "Storm of the Century?" A lot has to come into place before we can even advertise that possibility. The Polar, Pacific, and Subtropical Jet would need to come into place, out ahead of it you would need some serious warm air advection over the southeast and cold air advection over the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and of course you would need a low to develop in the Gulf, and these are just a few of the things you would need.

Here are 2 links I'll provide to learn about the large scale synoptic pattern that spawned the Superstorm of 1993 and its impacts to the Eastern United States. Link

Overview of the 12-14 March 1993 Superstorm by Paul J. Kocin, Phillip N. Schumacher, Ronald F. Morales Jr., and Louis W. Ucellini, National Weather Service, National Meteorological Center, Camp Springs, Maryland.
"TD 20-E will move west-northwest, parallel to the coast today through Thursday, then turn abruptly inland to the north on Friday as it gets pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure."

Might seem like a small detail but the forecast track for 20E actually starts off (first 24 hrs or so) a little south of due west, then turns west-north west which is going to make a big difference for us here is Puerto Escondido in terms of how much wind and rain we get. If it goes WNW from the get go it will come rather close to the coast.
The Weather ChannelCuenta verificada
‏@weatherchannel
BREAKING: Major 7.3 M earthquake centered near Vanuatu, reported at 5:52 p.m. EDT
Quoting 111. Gearsts:

The Weather ChannelCuenta verificada
‏@weatherchannel
BREAKING: Major 7.3 M earthquake centered near Vanuatu, reported at 5:52 p.m. EDT
I hope it wasn't shallow.
Quoting 109. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Oh God are we seriously getting people to compare this event to the "Storm of the Century?"
I also saw a Hurricane Sandy reference thrown in, too. Maybe he could just say it's an "Auntie Em! Auntie Em!" scenario.
Quoting 108. ACSeattle:


JB is proof, if any were needed, that meteorology and theology do not mix. The man needs to take an extended time out and contemplate just how far down the Yellow Brick Road he has traveled.
I agree that his behavior is nothing short of irritating at times..
Quoting 112. washingtonian115:

I hope it wasn't shallow.
131.0 km deep. Link
Quoting 100. Hurricane4Caster:


Look at this. That's Olaf at 45 kts making landfall in northern California on the 12Z 204 hour GFS. Certainly not likely to occur, but it would really be something if it did! 995 - 996 mb range, too.


It would be quite historic indeed. :)
Quoting 115. GTstormChaserCaleb:

131.0 km deep. Link


That's down in the mantle isn't it?
Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 7m
The @metoffice just finalized their storm names with help from the public. What do you think of their names? #WUTV

Quoting 118. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 7m
The @metoffice just finalized their storm names with help from the public. What do you think of their names? #WUTV




What do they do when an ex-hurricane becomes a strong UK storm?
Do they use their own name or the ex-hurricane's name?
There's a shake map for the Vanuata earthquake here. Seems to be perceived shaking strong/potential damage light for the island. Any tsunami?
Quoting 118. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 7m
The @metoffice just finalized their storm names with help from the public. What do you think of their names? #WUTV




I still don't like the idea of naming winter storms at all!
Quoting 117. FunnelVortex:



That's down in the mantle isn't it?
Edit. Actually that would be part of the mantle, but still seems shallow enough and given the intensity to be felt and cause damage.

Quoting 122. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like it would still be part of the Asthenosphere.


According to Wikipedia: "The asthenosphere is a part of the upper mantle just below the lithosphere that is involved in plate tectonic movement and isostatic adjustments. The lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary is conventionally taken at the 1300C isotherm, above which the mantle behaves in a rigid fashion and below which it behaves in a ductile fashion"

Edit: The lithosphere includes the crust and the uppermost part of the mantle. They are out to trick you with the definitions!
Quoting 113. bappit:

I also saw a Hurricane Sandy reference thrown in, too. Maybe he could just say it's an "Auntie Em! Auntie Em!" scenario.


LOLWTO!!!


(I actually got a mental picture with this one :)
Quoting 122. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Edit. Actually that would be part of the mantle, but still seems shallow enough and given the intensity to be felt and cause damage.




I didn't think quakes could occur that far down. I thought they happned due to tectonic plate boundaries or other kinds of faults in the crust (including the faults not associated with plate boundaries). Although I think magma in magma chambers can cause them too, albeit weaker ones.
Quoting 125. FunnelVortex:



I didn't think quakes could occur that far down. I thought they happned due to tectonic plate boundaries or other kinds of faults in the crust (including the faults not associated with plate boundaries). Although I think magma in magma chambers can cause them too, albeit weaker ones.


A paper that refers to them down to over 600 kM

Link
Interesting that the global ACE is below average. Very quiet elsewhere?

Link
Quoting 128. canyonboy:

Interesting that the global ACE is below average. Very quiet elsewhere?

Link

That page hasn't been keeping track of the basins not tracked by the NHC for some years. Global ACE is well above average.

Link
Quoting 111. Gearsts:

The Weather ChannelCuenta verificada
‏@weatherchannel
BREAKING: Major 7.3 M earthquake centered near Vanuatu, reported at 5:52 p.m. EDT
Vanautu has had a SUPER tough year after that Super Catastrophic Cyclone Pam....
Quoting 77. FunnelVortex:



You are gonna trust JB? lol
For the long range stuff there is no one out there better than the team at WeatherBell.
Quoting 117. FunnelVortex:



That's down in the mantle isn't it?

Subducted crust can remain unmelted and therefore subject to fracture at a depth of 130 km
Quoting 114. hydrus:

I agree that his behavior is nothing short of irritating at times..


I would probably take JB more seriously if it wasn't for his climate denial.
137. beell
Quoting 123. bappit:

According to Wikipedia: "The asthenosphere is a part of the upper mantle just below the lithosphere that is involved in plate tectonic movement and isostatic adjustments. The lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary is conventionally taken at the 1300%uFFFDC isotherm, above which the mantle behaves in a rigid fashion and below which it behaves in a ductile fashion"

Edit: The lithosphere includes the crust and the uppermost part of the mantle. They are out to trick you with the definitions!


Evening, bappit,
You might have already heard of it...if you have, pass it on! If not, a nice little outing for the curious along Houston's most famous fault. A "slump" fault that is thought by some to be a surface expression of the thousands of feet of sediment sliding inexorably towards the Gulf of Mexico Basin. Have to consider water and mineral extraction as exacerbating factors. 2-3' elevation changes along the scarp in some places. Buckled sidewalks, cracked building walls, and displaced curbs are just a few of the exciting sights to see. Somewhere, I have a GPS file...somewhere...


slump fault

A general route map

Discussion of Faults in the Houston Area-usgs.gov

Your out-of-town visitors will be deeply impressed by your local knowledge.

Quoting 128. canyonboy:

Interesting that the global ACE is below average. Very quiet elsewhere?

Link

Reading the last paragraph of the above blog might be informative.
Quoting 120. bappit:

There's a shake map for the Vanuata earthquake here. Seems to be perceived shaking strong/potential damage light for the island. Any tsunami?

Kind of deep.. No warning issued. No tsunami buoys triggered in the Pacific...


TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1158 AM HST TUE OCT 20 2015

TO - EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1152 AM HST 20 OCT 2015
COORDINATES - 14.8 SOUTH 167.4 EAST
LOCATION - VANUATU
MAGNITUDE - 7.3 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.
Quoting 117. FunnelVortex:



That's down in the mantle isn't it?

Not necessarily if this was a subduction quake. That area has a variety of complex subduction features where the Pacific and Australian plates subduct beneath each other. Subduction carries crust down below its normal unsubducted level, in the process generating quakes.
Quoting 134. HurricaneAndre:

We still have to monitor no matter what the models say. It's still hurricane season guys, don't let your guard down quite yet.



its a vary strong EL nino year so hurricane season this year all i can is its vary march over and done with now if we where in a strong LA Nino year then i would be saying yep but hurricane season for this year is done


in strong EL Nino year like this one hurricane season ends early and we are seeing that vary well on this

vary high wind shear is taking over wish means hurricane season is over




A few short lived thunder showers on the backside flow of the ULL by the Colorado River over the mountains here in San Diego County. Will take any and all rain!

Radar LinkLink

Raining pretty good at my place!
Imogen and Tegan. Nice. Sounds like part of one of my Spotify playlists.


Quoting 118. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 7m
The @metoffice just finalized their storm names with help from the public. What do you think of their names? #WUTV


Quoting 140. pureet1948:

I think the governor of Texas should declare an emergency now, in view of the pending "dangerous" flood situation.
The clouds haven't even gathered yet for him to even consider declaring such a thing yet.
A 1675 map of ocean currents by Eberhard Werner Happel. Click image to expand.

Quoting 109. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Oh God are we seriously getting people to compare this event to the "Storm of the Century?"

There's folks who are fake blog mets who have and will continue to turn every synoptic pattern into the worst.
At the office we call them the 5 inch club.
Emergency!? When I see the whites round it's eye, perhaps.
Winter storm Vernon (Dursley). Fat, overbearing and out of control!
Quoting 153. BaltimoreBrian:

Emergency!? When I see the whites round it's eye, perhaps.
lol.Such a poetic way to say "I'm rolling my eyes".
Quoting 150. BaltimoreBrian:

A 1675 map of ocean currents by Eberhard Werner Happel. Click image to expand.




Imbedd no worky BB.. :)
Is repeatedly quoting yourself considered "monomania"?

I suppose "narcissism" probably qualifies, as well.
pcola57, I'm sorry about that. I see the map and can expand it--I use firefox. Here is a direct link to the map.
Or is it passive-aggressive...

;)
Can you say cold snap?
That would be great, WOW!
Quoting 162. unknowncomic:

Can you say cold snap?

Just imagine how peaceful and quiet this blog was back in those days. There was no Florida!

Quoting 150. BaltimoreBrian:

A 1675 map of ocean currents by Eberhard Werner Happel. Click image to expand.


165. OCF
Quoting 126. Grothar:



And which model is the green dots running lengthwise up the Gulf of California? That would be a freaky scenario. (Note that the Gulf of California has some rather warm water.)
Quoting 137. beell:



Evening, bappit,
You might have already heard of it...if you have, pass it on! If not, a nice little outing for the curious along Houston's most famous fault. A "slump" fault that is thought by some to be a surface expression of the thousands of feet of sediment sliding inexorably towards the Gulf of Mexico Basin. Have to consider water and mineral extraction as exacerbating factors. 2-3' elevation changes along the scarp in some places. Buckled sidewalks, cracked building walls, and displaced curbs are just a few of the exciting sights to see. Somewhere, I have a GPS file...somewhere...


slump fault

A general route map

Discussion of Faults in the Houston Area-usgs.gov

Your out-of-town visitors will be deeply impressed by your local knowledge.


Those are growth faults, Beell. (Bonus round: why do they call them growth faults?) The Baton Rouge fault is one. It and the pleistocene terrace were the only visible elevation changes where I grew up.

Edit: cool article. "Parts of the Long Point and Eureka Heights faults appear to be particularly active; some sections of the Long Point fault have averaged more than 2 cm/yr of vertical offset over the last 20 years." That fault is very obvious when you drive over it. Been a while but the road used to be well patched and it made a heck of a speed bump. This part is also interesting: "Drainage ditches in Houston necessarily operate on very low gradients. We have observed gradients altered by faulting; locally, fault movements have decreased or reversed flow along sections of numerous ditches in the Houston area, an effect of obvious importance to flood-control programs. Homeowners on the downthrown sides of faults in areas of impaired drainage are increasingly susceptible to flooding, as their homes lose more elevation with every increment of fault movement. In such areas it is possible to suffer fault-related damage, caused by flooding, hundreds of meters from the nearest fault. Gravity-fed sewer lines may likewise experience reversed flow, leading to backup of storm drains and ponding of sewage at its sources. This effect has been noted at several locations, particularly along the Eureka Heights and Long Point faults." That's a nasty surprise!
Quoting 148. washingtonian115:

The clouds haven't even gathered yet for him to even consider declaring such a thing yet.


Well it seems people hit the Emergency button way to soon and too often these days. Was about a month ago Rick Scott declared state of emergency for Florida over Tropical Storm Erika which really didn't seem to do much if anything to Florida besides a little rain.
Quoting 163. TCweatherman:

That would be great, WOW!
sweet, ad that with a storm and surprise for parts of the southeast and mid Atlantic
Quoting 151. no1der:

The headline at ClimateProgress read, "This is about as mad as the Dalai Lama gets"


Quoting 168. pureet1948:




Can the argument be made that the same weather pattern that led to the horrifying South Carolina floods is about to occur in Texas? Is Houston likely to be a deserted city when all's said and done?
If you want to be taken serious,you have to stop with the fear mongering.A big rain event could occur yes but not to a apocalyptic event of a whole metro area that has a 4 million population being abandoned.C'mon now.

Never mind.Now I seriously think you're trolling
Quoting 126. Grothar:




Wish they could do that from the get go on Atlantic storms. Apparently the waters east of Mexico remove model sanity... xD
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Statement


Statement as of 9:31 PM CDT on October 20, 2015

... Minor coastal flooding of low lying areas possible...

* coastal flooding... tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal.

* Timing... through at least Wednesday.

* Impacts... significant impact is not expected. However... some
nuisance flooding of low lying roadways outside of levee
protection will be possible.
re the earthquake depth discussion, an extremely deep earthquake occurred in Bolivia on June 9, 1994. It was at a depth of 647 km and had a magnitude of 8.2. An earthquake of similar depth and intensity, 609 km in depth and magnitude 8.3 occurred in the Okhotsk Sea in 2013.

Quoting 162. unknowncomic:

Can you say cold snap?



Right on time! The BSR(Bering Straight Rule) states that whatever occurs around the Aleutian islands/Bering Sea expect a similar synoptic setup 2.5-3 weeks later. This rule has worked like a charm since early September. We had an Omega block in the west Aleutians with sustained troughs on either side(Japan=west; Eastern/central Aleutians=East) around October 10th Link . Thus expect a significant full latitude sustained trough over the eastern US between Oct. 28th-Nov. 3rd with an Omega high out west. This time I think the SE rather then the NE will get the brunt(and yes Florida should get a taste of this too)!
Quoting 178. weatherbro:



Right on time! The BSR(Bering Straight Rule) states that whatever occurs around the Aleutian islands/Bering Sea expect a similar synoptic setup 2.5-3 weeks later. This rule has worked like a charm since early September. We had an Omega block in the west Aleutians with sustained troughs on either side(Japan=west; Eastern/central Aleutians=East) around October 10th Link . Thus expect a significant full latitude sustained trough over the eastern US between Oct. 28th-Nov. 3rd with an Omega high out west. This time I think the SE rather then the NE will get the brunt(and yes Florida should get a taste of this too)!
would be kind of cool if this really pans out :)
Quoting 162. unknowncomic:

Can you say cold snap?



I can say "cold snap".
Quoting 178. weatherbro:



Right on time! The BSR(Bering Straight Rule) states that whatever occurs around the Aleutian islands/Bering Sea expect a similar synoptic setup 2.5-3 weeks later. This rule has worked like a charm since early September. We had an Omega block in the west Aleutians with sustained troughs on either side(Japan=west; Eastern/central Aleutians=East) around October 10th Link . Thus expect a significant full latitude sustained trough over the eastern US between Oct. 28th-Nov. 3rd with an Omega high out west. This time I think the SE rather then the NE will get the brunt(and yes Florida should get a taste of this too)!
southeast will get what?
Normal weather for us in FL.

Quoting 172. pureet1948:

4 KHGX 202033
HWOHGX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179- 195 >200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-211300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO -FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
333 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES. MINOR FLOODING
OVER LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AMPLE MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
HAPPENING COULD COME SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD BE IN A 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ENDING UP WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. IF PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS END UP RECEIVING HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT SATURATE
THE GROUNDS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MIGHT BE NEEDED.

STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...AND ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.





If I were the governor of Texas, I would advise non-residents to leave the state while they can, unless they've got urgent business in the region.
The low SW of the Iberian Peninsula developed much more organised convection during the night, and now looks rather tropical than subtropical. It will go trough Madeira today, like 5 days ago, but now from the opposite direction.

Quoting 165. OCF:


And which model is the green dots running lengthwise up the Gulf of California? That would be a freaky scenario. (Note that the Gulf of California has some rather warm water.)

It would take a very compact storm to make it up the slot. An average sized storm would be torn apart by the mountains on either side.
Quoting 182. swflurker:

Normal weather for us in FL.




Its not abnormal for Texas either. If it happens.
As seen at Buc-ee's on the evacuation routes: "Stop here get your troll nuggets".

(Buc-ee's is a Texas travel center chain that sells novelty items such as "beaver nuggets")
Good morning. News from the Philippines are worsening, unfortunately:

Koppu leaves behind trail of destruction in Philippines
BBC, 21 minutes ago
Tropical Storm Koppu is heading away from the Philippines' main island of Luzon, leaving behind a trail of devastation in the country's crucial farming region.
At least 39 people were killed as heavy rains triggered flooding and landslips, and toppled walls and trees.
More than 100,000 villagers remain in evacuation centres.

The government is holding an emergency meeting to decide whether additional rice imports will be needed.
The meeting had already been scheduled for next week to try to prepare for drought which predictions suggest could be induced by the El Nino severe weather system.
But an official from The National Food Authority (NFA) told Reuters news agency the meeting would be held this week, after some 400,000 tonnes of paddy rice was destroyed by Koppu. ...

More see link above.
Quoting 150. BaltimoreBrian:

A 1675 map of ocean currents by Eberhard Werner Happel. Click image to expand.


Wowwww... California was a lot bigger back then! hahaha
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

The cloud pattern of the storm is not well organized at this time,
with not much deep convection concentrated near the estimated
center position. There is also a lack of well-defined banding
features. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, in
agreement with a Dvorak CI Value from TAFB.

The center is not easy to track on nighttime imagery, with a
significant spread in fix locations from TAFB and SAB, and the
initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/6 kt. The
primary steering features over the next few days are a
mid-tropospheric trough extending southward into extreme
northwestern Mexico and a high over the Gulf of Mexico. This flow
regime should cause Patricia to turn gradually to the right over the
next few days, and cross the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72
hours or so. The official track forecast resembles the previous
one but is a little faster, and is close to the new model
consensus. This is between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Although the tropical cyclone has not strengthened significantly
thus far, the environment seems to be quite conducive for
intensification. With very warm sea surface temperatures near 30
deg C, light vertical shear, and a very moist atmosphere likely to
prevail during the next couple of days, Patricia is forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane by tomorrow. The official intensity
forecast is close to the LGEM guidance, but it should be noted that
if the system develops a well-defined inner core, rapid
intensification is certainly possible. Note that in the official
wind speed forecast shown here, additional strengthening is implied
after the 48 hour forecast and up until landfall.

Based on the new 48-hour forecast location and the predicted wind
radii, A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been
issued for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.2N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Quoting 178. weatherbro:



Right on time! The BSR(Bering Straight Rule) states that whatever occurs around the Aleutian islands/Bering Sea expect a similar synoptic setup 2.5-3 weeks later. This rule has worked like a charm since early September. We had an Omega block in the west Aleutians with sustained troughs on either side(Japan=west; Eastern/central Aleutians=East) around October 10th Link . Thus expect a significant full latitude sustained trough over the eastern US between Oct. 28th-Nov. 3rd with an Omega high out west. This time I think the SE rather then the NE will get the brunt(and yes Florida should get a taste of this too)!
Or, maybe not right on time. The cold snap is now looking less snappish than it as with the 12z run. Of course, it may turn more snappish again with the next run. Models out 200 or so hours often do that.

Good Morning Folks................Fascinating look to the Northern Hemisphere tropics this morning in both basins (Pacific and Atlantic), with several tropical systems intermingled with large areas of moisture sandwiched between large swatches of dry air and the jet streaming across the higher latitudes:




Quoting 143. Tazmanian:




its a vary strong EL nino year so hurricane season this year all i can is its vary march over and done with now if we where in a strong LA Nino year then i would be saying yep but hurricane season for this year is done


in strong EL Nino year like this one hurricane season ends early and we are seeing that vary well on this

vary high wind shear is taking over wish means hurricane season is over






Yeah like Ida in 2009.... which reached 110 mph winds in the western Caribbean. Living proof of why u shouldn't let your guard down b4 November..... even in an el nino year. Yes,however i do believe we've had the majority of our activity this season.
Quoting 77. FunnelVortex:



You are gonna trust JB? lol
A lot more than you or anyone else on this blog, JB is a very good forecaster, especially long range forecasting. He has been forecasting a very long time and his forecast are more often right than wrong. It's not Just JB either, he works with Joe D and Dr. Maue, who is just as good if not better then DR. Masters, in what he specializes in.
Quoting 136. FunnelVortex:



I would probably take JB more seriously if it wasn't for his climate denial.
Quoting 158. pcola57:



Imbedd no worky BB.. :)
I don't see Florida on that map, their must of been Global Warming going on back then to raise the Oceans enough to cover Florida.
local salt-water levels are receding. it got high but not near the mark nov 1994 e cen fl.
Quoting 193. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks................Fascinating look to the Northern Hemisphere tropics this morning in both basins (Pacific and Atlantic), with several tropical systems intermingled with large areas of moisture sandwiched between large swatches of dry air and the jet streaming across the higher latitudes:







That looks like some good Deep Convection.
Quoting 155. BaltimoreBrian:

Winter storm Vernon (Dursley). Fat, overbearing and out of control!


Huh?
Quoting 199. NativeSun:


Why didn't my response show up? All I said was he could be right, and it would make a lot of people look really foolish if he was.
Quoting 191. sar2401:

Or, maybe not right on time. The cold snap is now looking less snappish than it as with the 12z run. Of course, it may turn more snappish again with the next run. Models out 200 or so hours often do that.


yeah but GFS this morning is still bullish on the cold coming south and snow for the mountains
Several videos of accumulated hail from that hail storm in El Paso, TX yesterday are online today.. Many show heavy rain, hail and hail rivers running down roadways. There is another video in my blog from lastnight that included this event.


Quoting 204. NativeSun:

Why didn't my response show up? All I said was he could be right, and it would make a lot of people look really foolish if he was.
Because you put it in the wrong place. If you don't start a reply after the last em and blockquote in the quoted text, your reply won't show up. No conspiracy or anything, just bad web design.
208. ariot
Rain in Baguio City is a sight to behold, indeed.

I'm just passing along an oddity.

One of the government agencies had a meeting scheduled next week to discuss emergency importing of rice. That meeting was scheduled long ago amid expectations that a strong El Nino would cause drought and the government would need to take preemptive action by importing rice.

The meeting will go on as planned, but the reasons for importing rice will be different.

"The National Food Authority (NFA) Council had been due to meet on Oct 29 to review the country's rice supplies and discuss increased imports of up to 1 million tonnes due to forecasts of a severe El Nino-induced dry weather."

Apologies if repost.

Deathtoll sadly further rising:
Typhoon Koppu weakens rapidly after killing 58 in Philippines
Source: Reuters - Wed, 21 Oct 2015 11:19 GMT
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 197. NativeSun:

A lot more than you or anyone else on this blog, JB is a very good forecaster, especially long range forecasting. He has been forecasting a very long time and his forecast are more often right than wrong. It's not Just JB either, he works with Joe D and Dr. Maue, who is just as good if not better then DR. Masters, in what he specializes in.

I agree with this gentleman. I am a MET student and it is a very difficult field. I respect all METS who have a Degree period. JB has been a PROFESSIONAL MET for over 30 years he gets my love and respect just like Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson. Everyone has different opinions and views you can agree or disagree that's up to you. However, we can't discredit someone just because u don't believe in what he/she says. JB has a good recoed of long range forecasting that's his forte or bread and butter. He might not be strong in other aspects of METEOROLOGY but he does due Long Term forecasting well. Thank you Brandon P Brady

Quoting 128. canyonboy:

Interesting that the global ACE is below average. Very quiet elsewhere?


Quoting 138. ACSeattle:


Reading the last paragraph of the above blog might be informative.


um, I did, that's where I got the WU link for the below average global ACE.

However, I will grant you that I usually skipped the last chapter in school.