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Koppu Kills 12, Dumps 30+ Inches of Rain on Philippines; Olaf Hits Category 3

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:43 PM GMT on October 19, 2015

Tropical Storm Koppu has weakened below typhoon strength, but is still bringing dangerous torrential rains to much of the Philippines' Luzon Island as the storm drifts north-northeastwards at 4 mph along the west coast of the island. Koppu, which is known as "Lando" in the Philippines, hit the east-coast province of Aurora around 1:00 am Sunday local time at peak strength, with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 920 mb. Fortunately, that part of Luzon is fairly sparsely populated; the death toll from the typhoon stood at a relatively low twelve people on Monday morning. However, damage was reported to nearly 100% of the houses and infrastructure in the city of Casiguran (population 27,000), near where the storm made landfall, and some towns are still cut off from communications. At least 9 million residents of Luzon--close to 10 percent of the population of the Philippines--were without power at the height of the storm on Sunday afternoon local time (midnight Saturday night EDT), according to data from the Philippines National Disaster Risk and Reduction Management Council.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Typhoon Koppu, centered along the west coast of Luzon Island in the Philippines, as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Monday, October 19, 2015 at 03:05 UTC. At the time, Koppu was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. A resident carries his rescued piglet near flood-inundated houses at a village in Santa Rosa town, Nueva Ecija province, north of Manila on October 19, 2015, a day after Typhoon Koppu hit Aurora province. Image credit: TED ALJIBE/AFP/Getty Images.

Torrential rains to grip Luzon for several days
Extreme rainfall and flooding remain the main threat from Koppu. Steering currents have collapsed, and the typhoon will move very slowly to the northeast at less than 5 mph over northern Luzon for the next 2 - 4 days. Although Koppu will continue to deteriorate as its center remains over or near land, its broad, strong circulation will keep pulling deep moisture into the island, where upslope flow against higher terrain will squeeze out mammoth amounts of rain. Even a tropical depression can produce enormous rains if it’s moving slowly, especially when positioned near high terrain, and Koppu should maintain at least tropical storm strength the next two days. At a minimum, we can expect widespread storm totals of one to two feet of rain across much of northern Luzon. Multi-day rainfall totals of over two feet will result in widespread flooding and mudslides, and major agricultural damage can be expected as well. It appears the heaviest rains will stay north of the Philippines' most heavily populated region--the capital of Manila--but Koppu could still end up as one of the top-five most costly natural disasters in Philippine history.

Torrential rains in excess of 20" have already hit the city of Baguio, a regional center with about 300,000 residents that’s popular among visitors for its relatively cool climate. Located at an elevation of roughly 5000 feet, but less than 20 miles from Luzon’s west coast, Baguio is highly vulnerable to moist westerly winds being forced upslope. A typhoon in July 1911 dumped more than 2,200 millimeters (87 inches) of rain on the city in less than four days. In September 2015, Typhoon Goni brought more than 700 millimeters (28 inches) of rain to Baguio, even without making a direct hit on the Philippines, as noted by weather.com. Baguio received 6.34" of rain from Koppu in the 24 hours ending at 00 UTC October 19, 2015, then another 15.94" in the twelve hours ending at 12 UTC (8 am EDT) Monday. Another 11.14" fell in the six hours ending at 18 UTC, for a 42-hour rainfall total of 33.42" (849 mm.) Monday morning rainfall forecasts from the HWRF model were projecting another 1 - 2 feet of rain over western Luzon Island from Koppu.

For reference, below are the global and hemisphere records for heaviest rainfall observed in various time periods, as certified by the World Meteorological Organization and archived by Arizona State University.

24 hours: 1.825m (71.8"), January 7-8, 1966, Foc-Foc, La Réunion
48 hours: 2.493m (98.15"), June 15-16, 1995, Cherrapunji, India
72 hours: 3.930m (154.72"), February 24-26, 2007, Cratère Commerson, La Réunion
96 hours: 4.936m (194.33"), February 24-27, 2007, Cratère Commerson, La Réunion


Figure 3. MODIS image of Typhoon Champi as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Monday, October 19, 2015 at 01:25 UTC. At the time, Champi was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Champi headed towards Iwo Jima
The Pacific’s relentless tropical season of 2015 continues to amaze. On Sunday, Super Typhoon Champi became the Northern Hemisphere's record-setting twentieth Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of 2015 (previous record: eighteen in 2004, according to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach.) Only one of those twenty Category 4 and 5 storms--Hurricane Joaquin--came from the Atlantic. Champi is the season’s eighth super typhoon, with winds of at least 150 mph--impressive, but still short of the Northwest Pacific record of eleven super typhoons set in 1965 and matched in 1997.

The only land areas likely to be affected by Champi are Japan’s sparsely populated Volcano Islands, including Iwo Jima (Iwo To). Champi has weakened to a Categery 3 storm, and is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to continue to steadily weaken this week, passing very near Iwo Jima as a Category 2 storm near 00 UTC Thursday.


Figure 4. Latest satellite image of Hurricane Olaf.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Olaf sets a new record
Hurricane Olaf intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane on Monday at 11 am EDT in the waters about 1350 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, becoming the tenth hurricane and eighth major hurricane of this very busy Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Olaf became a major hurricane unusually far to the south--at 9.9°N latitude, making it the most southerly major hurricane ever observed in the Eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971. This year now ties with 2014 and 1992 for the most number of major Eastern Pacific major hurricanes (east of 140°W) in a season--eight. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and we have already had 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 8 intense hurricanes so far in 2015. This is the second consecutive year with unusually heavy activity in the Eastern Pacific--in 2014, the basin had 20 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 8 intense hurricanes, making it the busiest season since 1992, which set records for total number of named storms (24), hurricanes (14), and intense hurricanes (8). It has also been a hyperactive year for hurricanes in the Central Pacific, between 140°W and 180°W. So far in 2015, eight named storms have formed in the Central Pacific, setting a new record for tropical cyclone activity in that basin. According to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach, prior to 2015, the previous record for named storms in the North Central Pacific for an entire season was four, set in 1982. This year's record activity in both the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific has been due to unusually low wind shear and record-warm ocean temperatures caused by the strong El Niño event underway.

Olaf is likely to turn to the north by this weekend well east of Hawaii, but the long-term fate of the storm remains unclear; Hawaii may need to be concerned with Olaf next week.

Invest 97E to bring heavy rains to Mexico's Pacific coast
The Pacific coast of Mexico needs to be concerned with Invest 97E, and area of heavy thunderstorms extending from near the coast of Guatemala westwards along the south coast of Mexico. 97E will track northwestwards to west-northwestwards parallel to Mexico’s Pacific coast for the next several days, far enough offshore to allow for strengthening. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 97E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 80%, respectively.

Low odds of development in the Gulf of Mexico
An area of showers and thunderstorms extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula at 8 am EDT Monday was associated with a weak area of low pressure. This low will move slowly west-northwest at about 5 mph, and may emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday. The disturbance's proximity to land, and presence of 30 knots of wind shear, make development unlikely. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 10%, respectively. Moisture from the disturbance is likely to spread northwards Wednesday through Friday across the Southern Plains and interact with an upper level low pressure system, bringing heavy rains. Eastern New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and the Oklahoma Panhandle could see widespread flooding Wednesday and Thursday, and the flood threat increases late Friday through Sunday for eastern Texas.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an update on El Niño in his Monday afternoon post, Strong Warm-Up on the Way as El Niño Flow Pattern Becomes Firmly Entrenched.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Video 1. Video compilation from James Reynolds of wind damage and flooding associated with Typhoon Koppu, posted on Sunday, October 18, 2015. Image credit: Earth Uncut TV.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doks!
Thanks for the update - still looking for rain in Houston.
Thank You Both and Prayers for the People in the Philippines affected by Koppu. Considering some of the record activity we have been seeing in the Pacific Basin lately, and the very strong storms and typhoons (both in the E-Pac and West-Pac), I will not be looking forward to what future El Nino seasons will bring to that Basin; and particularly with creeping upward SST departures and anomalies.
Good thing I checked for a new blog before I posted, lol. Thanks Dynamic Duo.

Quoting 174. Grothar:



Too many old people on here lol


Cause you guys keep scaring the young ones away.

Quoting 162. Grothar:




Dear Lord, I think I understood this. What's happening to me?????????


Once you understand vis and Taz and Pat, then you can read anyone's posts fluently. We need a term like Master Builder from Lego, except more like Master Blogger. Lol.

Quoting 161. KuCommando:



....boring....I don't doubt it.

I'm "caretaking" 2 grandkids since April.....and the Komon Kore curriculum I see they're being taught is sorely lacking in critical thinking.


Glad I got out of primary schooling when I did. Whew.

Quoting 147. Grothar:



You should be out of your homeroom and in your first class. Please, Cam. If they ask you to raise your hand, remove the Ipad first!!!


Lucky for you, I'm on fall break.

Also, do they do school down there differently? Often my homeroom was where the bulk of my classes were, but that was elementary-middle school. In high school it was just an arbitrary room in case they needed to hand out forms and paperwork.
Thanks Dr.s...
old is new and new is old. Keep up the good work both new and old people alike.
As noted from an earlier posting, and your blog, here is the upper low currently traversing towards the Southern Plains in Conus (over Nevada and Cal at the moment):





Well, so much for that blob off the Yucatan firing up and heading north toward Florida. It looked as if some here were starting to get hopeful for one last blast of glory to cap the 2015 Atlantic season but the truth is, any prospects for that are becoming bleaker by the minute.

A very strong high pressure system is over the Eastern US at the moment. It has brought record cold to a number or locations in the NE US. Here in Florida, we are getting the fringe effects with strong northeasterly winds. If that high pressure system had dropped to the SE or S out of its source pool in Arctic Canada, we'd have low temps in the 40s across much of Florida now and perhaps some upper 30s in North Florida. But we are just getting the fringe effects because the High moved mostly east across the Northern US rather than more southward.

However, the presence of that big high pressure area is what will steer anything near the Yucatan off to the W-NW and not to the north. Sure the climatology says that any disturbances which form over the Western Caribbean in October tend to move N or NE but that just represents the average circumstance that has been gathered from the data over many decades, NOT the individual circumstances which may develop in any given season. In addition, there is very strong wind shear over most of the Gulf right now and that would have to be absent for any storm to form and move toward Florida. Yes it has happened many times in the past but the atmospheric conditions were much different in those instances than they are right now.
For the El Nino obsessed, WU now has a dedicated webpage.
Models are now finally trending wetter across FL later this week into next week. According to the CPC it appears this wet pattern about to set in is right on que.

If you look @ the models you can clearly see we are heading into this type of pattern across the US. Could get very active across the South soon as Nino 3.4 has now been above 2C for 10 weeks already the most ever for this time of year.



This doesn't look like a 967mb storm - looks like a strong typhoon with those huge feeder bands, also impressive CDO - upgrade to Cat 4 at the next advisory?
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

Models are now finally trending wetter across FL later this week into next week. According to the CPC it appears this wet pattern about to set in is right on que.


i am quite tired of the rain here in south florida and i just want a nice dry and cool fall/winter down here. are there any hints to that in the future,scott?
Quoting 17. knightwarrior41:

i am quite tired of the rain here in south florida and i just want a nice dry and cool fall/winter down here. are there any hints to that in the future,scott?


Cool no atleast not for the next 10 days. Could turn wet next week as many models are trending toward wetter in FL. Also S FL is still in a drought so rain is still needed down there.
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:



Cool no atleast not for the next 10 days. Could turn wet next week as many models are trending toward wetter in FL. Also S FL is still in a drought so rain is still needed down there.
were not in a drought anymore
Quoting 16. JNFlori30A:

FLORIDA was not mentioned once in this blog??? REPORTED!


Report away. I will say this the guy carrying the pig has a nice Dinner later on in his hands.

Ham Steaks anyone?
Quoting 14. StormTrackerScott:

If you look @ the models you can clearly see we are heading into this type of pattern across the US. Could get very active across the South soon as Nino 3.4 has now been above 2C for 10 weeks already the most ever for this time of year.


Could be a serious risk of another major tornado outbreak somewhere across the mid-section of Florida during the upcoming autumn/winter/early spring, due to this El Niño. If so, the most likely target area would be somewhere around Orlando and points to the east of there, I'm guessing. But all areas of Florida may be under the gun from time to time.

If this unfolds and there is a real good chance that it will, it may provide a new experience for some of the younger and newer members of this blog to do a different kind of storm-chasing than perhaps the kind they were anticipating, i.e: tornado and severe Wx chasing as opposed to hurricane-chasing. It would be different but probably no less exciting.
Quoting 21. FLWaterFront:

Could be a serious risk of another major tornado outbreak somewhere across the mid-section of Florida during the upcoming autumn/winter/early spring, due to this El Niño. If so, the most likely target area would be somewhere around Orlando and points to the east of there, I'm guessing. But all areas of Florida may be under the gun from time to time.

If this unfolds and there is a real good chance that it will, it may provide a new experience for some of the younger and newer members of this blog to do a different kind of storm-chasing than perhaps the kind they were anticipating, i.e: tornado and severe Wx chasing as opposed to hurricane-chasing. It would be different but probably no less exciting.



Models looking interesting in the long range. Could be a decent severe weather outbreak looming from Coastal Texas to the FL Panhandle in the 6 to 10 day time frame. It sure does appear we are rapidly heading into a rapidly changing weather pattern down the road.
Strong piece of energy heading SE toward Coastal Texas @ day 10. Euro shows this too.

Quoting 17. knightwarrior41:

i am quite tired of the rain here in south florida and i just want a nice dry and cool fall/winter down here. are there any hints to that in the future,scott?


Most winters this is the outcome. But El Nino winters are much more active, sorry!
Quoting 25. georgevandenberghe:



Most winters this is the outcome. But El Nino winters are much more active, sorry!


Especially Strong one's. Weak El-Nino's you only see a slight increase in rains during the Winter Season. Moderate El-Nino's a little more but Strong to especially Super El-Nino's like the one in 2015 produces tremendous amounts of rain across FL along with severe weather with some tornadoes being very strong.
Thanks for the updates Gentlemen....


NWS Amarillo discussion re: rainfall this week.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
407 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS BEING MADE. WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT COMMENCES.

POPS BEGIN IN SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH POPS RETAINED IN WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SETS UP WHILE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLOODING AND/OR FLASH FLOODING. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER FOR ALL SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS. DEEP RICH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST ONE INCH...WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS ABOVE 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO BEGIN WORKING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS...WITH RAINS BEGINNING TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE. DRY THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH COOLER NIGHTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING FORECAST.

COCKRELL
Quoting 26. StormTrackerScott:



Especially Strong one's. Weak El-Nino's you only see a slight increase in rains during the Winter Season. Moderate El-Nino's a little more but Strong to especially Super El-Nino's like the one in 2015 produces tremendous amounts of rain across FL along with severe weather with some tornadoes being very strong.
If there is another needless tragedy in Central Florida during the upcoming winter/spring (needless because of the number of lives lost and injuries, etc) I wonder if there will finally be a serious push to install tornado sirens in Florida cities? Back in February of 1998 a series of tornadoes struck the Kissimmee/Orlando/Sandord area and took 42 lives there. While these were EF-3 and EF-2 tornadoes, it is doubtful the same loss of life would have occurred had the exact same type of storm hit in populated areas of states like Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Illinois or numerous others which long ago installed warning sirens in most areas.

Even though Florida is not in the heart of tornado alley, tornadoes have taken quite a large number of lives here over the past several decades but officials continue to resist installing warning sirens and I think that is a mistake. This is an age where people are distracted by technology nearly all the time, are very busy with work and countless tasks most of the time and are exhausted and sleeping the rest of the time, especially in now-very-heavily-populated Florida. And that does not even count the 100 million tourists who come to Florida annually, at least some of whom live in places where they do have tornado warning sirens. Just advising everyone to have a weather warning radio at the ready does not cut it, in my opinion. Too many people here are unaware of the tornado risk and tune out weather in general during the non summer months and outside of hurricane season.
Quoting 29. FLWaterFront:

If there is another needless tragedy in Central Florida during the upcoming winter/spring (needless because of the number of lives lost and injuries, etc) I wonder if there will finally be a serious push to install tornado sirens in Florida cities? Back in February of 1998 a series of tornadoes struck the Kissimmee/Orlando/Sandord area and took 42 lives there. While these were EF-3 and EF-2 tornadoes, it is doubtful the same loss of life would have occurred had the exact same type of storm hit in populated areas of states like Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Illinois or numerous others which long ago installed warning sirens in most areas.

Even though Florida is not in the heart of tornado alley, tornadoes have taken quite a large number of lives here over the past several decades but officials continue to resist installing warning sirens and I think that is a mistake. This is an age where people are distracted by technology nearly all the time, are very busy with work and countless tasks most of the time and are exhausted and sleeping the rest of the time, especially in now-very-heavily-populated Florida. And that does not even count the 100 million tourists who come to Florida annually, at least some of whom live in places where they do have tornado warning sirens. Just advising everyone to have a weather warning radio at the ready does not cut it, in my opinion. Too many people here are unaware of the tornado risk and tune out weather in general during the non summer months and outside of hurricane season.


We actually have them here north of Orlando. Specifically in the Oviedo area just east of me.
10 years ago today we had this monster named Wilma in the Caribbean, with a barometric pressure of 882MB.



Quoting 31. 882MB:

10 years ago today we had this monster named Wilma in the Caribbean, with a barometric pressure of 882MB.






Where did you find those images?
Quoting 32. 62901IL:



Where did you find those images?


I had those loops saved for a while, but I believe I found it in the link below.

Link

Quoting 14. StormTrackerScott:

If you look @ the models you can clearly see we are heading into this type of pattern across the US. Could get very active across the South soon as Nino 3.4 has now been above 2C for 10 weeks already the most ever for this time of year.




Such a happy map. :)
Quoting 33. 882MB:



I had these loops saved for a while, but I believe I found it in the link below.

Link


Link didn't work.
Some windy conditions where I live. A few wind gusts reached over 40 mph, but for the most part are now below 35. and apparently in the early morning, Hallendale Beach got multiple gusts of 50 mph, nothing too nuts, but still impressive.

Also thank you for the update on that horrid storm Dr. Masters I hope the loss of life and property is as minimal as possible.
Looks like Lubbock's seeing flood potential also, for their forecast area. NWS Lubbock issued a
Special Weather Statement this morning.

(I don't know how to link to the archived version, so that one will probably update.)
More CMC FL DOOM
Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:



We actually have them here north of Orlando. Specifically in the Oviedo area just east of me.
Well, that is certainly good. I think some individual communities in the state have taken upon themselves to do that but in Alabama, for just one example, you'd be hard-pressed to find a single city or town of any size without tornado sirens. In Florida however this is not the case, they are still uncommon.
Quoting 38. Camerooski:

More CMC FL DOOM


Yes, but that DOOM is 156 hours out.

Probably a ghost from Joaquin.
Even More CMC FL DOOM has a 1001 mb TS move NE at last frame in Carrib.
Quoting 35. 62901IL:



Link didn't work.


Visible
Link

IR
Link
Quoting 38. Camerooski:

More CMC FL DOOM
Looks more like a Bahamas mini-doom to me. Either way, I wish I could bet money on that not coming to pass.
Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:



We actually have them here north of Orlando. Specifically in the Oviedo area just east of me.


The Florida Division of Emergency Management has been using the system set up for Amber Alerts to give tornado and severe weather notifications to Central Florida (roughly Sanford to Kissimmee) since 2014 by way of cell phones using the local cell phone towers ensuring that people including tourists get the alerts. The alerts are a different message sound and vibration pattern than standard text alerts and cannot be responded to. I don't know the differences between effectiveness of tornado sirens versus phone alerts, however, given Central Florida's sprawl, it seems to be an innovative way to get the message out.
Quoting 41. Camerooski:

Even More CMC FL DOOM has a 1001 mb TS move NE at last frame in Carrib.


240 hours out. Ya know, if we only paid attention to the model runs more than 100 hours out, it wouldn't be long before outright paranoia started sweeping the coasts.

Quoting 42. 882MB:



Link

Link



Thank you.
Quoting 44. Naga5000:



The Florida Division of Emergency Management has been using the system set up for Amber Alerts to give tornado and severe weather notifications to Central Florida (roughly Sanford to Kissimmee) since 2014 by way of cell phones using the local cell phone towers ensuring that people including tourists get the alerts. The alerts are a different message sound and vibration pattern than standard text alerts and cannot be responded to. I don't know the differences between effectiveness of tornado sirens versus phone alerts, however, given Central Florida's sprawl, it seems to be an innovative way to get the message out.


I remember in 2006 we had a tornado in early November near Casselberry and tornado sirens did go off. They were installed after the 1998 Tornado Outbreak across C FL.

Speaking of severe weather we could see that early next week. Euro looks down right mean across the SE US.
Boy if you love to track severe weather then in 7 to 8 days you might be in luck. The Euro that is loading now means business from Mississippi over to FL.

Here we go folks.

Largest. Cone. Ever.
It looks like something is trying to push Lando out of the way.

Quoting 49. Grothar:

It looks like something is trying to push Lando out of the way.




Lando??
Quoting 48. 62901IL:

Largest. Cone. Ever.



Reason is the Euro Ensembles bring Olaf over to Hawaii next week
Scott I will be visiting a friend in Lake Mary on the 25th. I was wondering if your in town we can catch a cup of coffee and discuss weather and climate
FL say hi to the Super El-Nino of 2015/2016.

Quoting 39. FLWaterFront:

Well, that is certainly good. I think some individual communities in the state have taken upon themselves to do that but in Alabama, for just one example, you'd be hard-pressed to find a single city or town of any size without tornado sirens. In Florida however this is not the case, they are still uncommon.
Yes, we have them here. If you happen to be outside and near a siren that works, you can hear one. If you're inside a sealed up insulated house with the A/C running, you'll never hear one. Even if you hear one, what does it mean? Is there a tornado bearing down on me right now? Is it actually on the other side of the county and not coming near me? Are Martians invading?

Sirens were a great answer in the early 1950's. No cell phones, almost no TV's, no transistor radios, no internet, no nothing but a siren. For 2015, they are an expensive, difficult to maintain system that imparts no information but a tone. There are times that our sirens go off so often here that people just ignore them because they sound for a tornado anywhere in the county. There are many better solutions today. Most TV and radio stations already repeat NWS weather radio broadcasts when there's a warning. Some cell phone companies already push weather warnings to phones in the area. There are about 50 ways for a person to get weather warnings on any device with OTA data access, and I see very few devices today that don't, judging by the numbers of people I see constantly tapping away on them. There are lots of solutions better than sirens.
Quoting 52. WeatherConvoy:

Scott I will be visiting a friend in Lake Mary on the 25th. I was wondering if your in town we can catch a cup of coffee and discuss weather and climate


I will be out of town until the 26th. Definitely sometime soon. I will be in Nassau Wednesday thru Sunday.

Bam!

Quoting 44. Naga5000:



The Florida Division of Emergency Management has been using the system set up for Amber Alerts to give tornado and severe weather notifications to Central Florida (roughly Sanford to Kissimmee) since 2014 by way of cell phones using the local cell phone towers ensuring that people including tourists get the alerts. The alerts are a different message sound and vibration pattern than standard text alerts and cannot be responded to. I don't know the differences between effectiveness of tornado sirens versus phone alerts, however, given Central Florida's sprawl, it seems to be an innovative way to get the message out.
It's a hugely better way. The technology to push text message to cell phones is well understood and not all that burdensome to a provider now that GPS location is built into almost all phones. With the ubiquity of connected devices today it's a much better system than sirens. If nothing else, all the 10 year olds can warn Mom and Dad when they get the warning that interrupts FB updates. :-)
Quoting 21. FLWaterFront:

Could be a serious risk of another major tornado outbreak somewhere across the mid-section of Florida during the upcoming autumn/winter/early spring, due to this El Niño. If so, the most likely target area would be somewhere around Orlando and points to the east of there, I'm guessing. But all areas of Florida may be under the gun from time to time.

If this unfolds and there is a real good chance that it will, it may provide a new experience for some of the younger and newer members of this blog to do a different kind of storm-chasing than perhaps the kind they were anticipating, i.e: tornado and severe Wx chasing as opposed to hurricane-chasing. It would be different but probably no less exciting.
it will get cold to in the southeast
Quoting 41. Camerooski:

Even More CMC FL DOOM has a 1001 mb TS move NE at last frame in Carrib.
The CMC always has a tropical cyclone moving somewhere at 240 hours. On December 1, they'll suddenly disappear, and the CMC can go back to what it does best -- blizzards.
Quoting 53. StormTrackerScott:

FL say hi to the Super El-Nino of 2015/2016.


That pic is at 240 hours, it will change.




The Area of Potential Gale Force Winds is the 34 kt wind radii + the average forecast track error.
Quoting 49. Grothar:

It looks like something is trying to push Lando out of the way.


Center is still being drag by land.
Quoting 50. 62901IL:



Lando??


Yes, that's the name of the storm. The other name is Koppu.
Quoting 55. StormTrackerScott:



I will be out of town until the 26th. Definitely sometime soon. I will be in Nassau Wednesday thru Sunday.

Bam!



Scott if that is a mid-latitude cyclone yes sir we will be in a heap of severe weather trouble especially in North and Central Florida. Wow for all Gulf Coast and Florida residents this year its going to be a rough ride. The trough according to the Euro seems to be deepening
Quoting 36. ElConando:

Some windy conditions where I live. A few wind gusts reached over 40 mph, but for the most part are now below 35. and apparently in the early morning, Hallendale Beach got multiple gusts of 50 mph, nothing too nuts, but still impressive.

Also thank you for the update on that horrid storm Dr. Masters I hope the loss of life and property is as minimal as possible.
The barometer got up to 1030 mb early this morning as the high moved north of me. That's what I occasionally see in the dead of winter, not October. Pressure is now down to 1027 mb as the high continues to move east so the pressure gradient down there should start to decrease. Winds haven't been anything exceptional here with a high gust of only 14 mph so far. With a temperature of 75 and dewpoint of 43, our usual humid weather has now become more like Nevada.
Quoting 59. Gearsts:

That pic is at 240 hours, it will change.


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 23m23 minutes ago
Gotta love it when typhoons are running wild out over the North Pacific. Big changes in today's ECMWF op.
Quoting 54. sar2401:

Yes, we have them here. If you happen to be outside and near a siren that works, you can hear one. If you're inside a sealed up insulated house with the A/C running, you'll never hear one. Even if you hear one, what does it mean? Is there a tornado bearing down on me right now? Is it actually on the other side of the county and not coming near me? Are Martians invading?

Sirens were a great answer in the early 1950's. No cell phones, almost no TV's, no transistor radios, no internet, no nothing but a siren. For 2015, they are an expensive, difficult to maintain system that imparts no information but a tone. There are times that our sirens go off so often here that people just ignore them because they sound for a tornado anywhere in the county. There are many better solutions today. Most TV and radio stations already repeat NWS weather radio broadcasts when there's a warning. Some cell phone companies already push weather warnings to phones in the area. There are about 50 ways for a person to get weather warnings on any device with OTA data access, and I see very few devices today that don't, judging by the numbers of people I see constantly tapping away on them. There are lots of solutions better than sirens.


You must have some wimpy sirens, or not enough of them. If one of those goes off back in Nashville, it's loud and clear even inside my house. But we heavily use our weather radio, we have it set to go off when a tornado warning is issued, this is important for those night storms that we would otherwise sleep through.

At school in PA, we have a text based alert system that the police use to distribute weather information and emergency information to the student body. It's completely voluntary to sign up for, but I'd say 99% of campus has it.
Quoting 44. Naga5000:



The Florida Division of Emergency Management has been using the system set up for Amber Alerts to give tornado and severe weather notifications to Central Florida (roughly Sanford to Kissimmee) since 2014 by way of cell phones using the local cell phone towers ensuring that people including tourists get the alerts. The alerts are a different message sound and vibration pattern than standard text alerts and cannot be responded to. I don't know the differences between effectiveness of tornado sirens versus phone alerts, however, given Central Florida's sprawl, it seems to be an innovative way to get the message out.


Yeah I got a tornado alert notification from that system a few times since last year. It's definitely a great idea. The phone buzzes continuously for several seconds instead of a single brief buzz for a text message notification. Not sure if that's universal, but that's how my phone responded. Needless to say it definitely gets one's attention quite well.
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:



Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 23m23 minutes ago
Gotta love it when typhoons are running wild out over the North Pacific. Big changes in today's ECMWF op.

So is less likely that will happen.
Quoting 68. Gearsts:

So less likely that will happen.


No the opposite. That is what Michael is referring too. This pattern change has been showing up for a number of days now but now were finally getting in the 6 to 10 day time frame as opposed to the 16 day time frame. You can surely see the influence of El-Nino now showing up in the models. Again we have now had 10 plus weeks of 2C or greater anomalies across nino 3.4 so models aren't messing around.
Quoting 47. StormTrackerScott:

Boy if you love to track severe weather then in 7 to 8 days you might be in luck. The Euro that is loading now means business from Mississippi over to FL.

Here we go folks.


Just the first of a whole bunch of these that could push all the way into next May. Unless you've lived through a super El Niño event across the southernmost tier of the US from California to Florida to roughly the mid-Atlantic region, you probably fail to understand what all the fuss is about and think Floridians should stick to only paying attention to hurricanes. On this blog people probably mostly understand but most of the rest of the world does not.

It is also something that is relatively new because El Niños were not well understood by meteorologists in the US prior to the 1982-83 super event and this learning curve increased dramatically following the winter of 1997-98. Then meteorologists looked back at previous years and found a consistent correlation between unusually heavy winter rains and storms across the southernmost US and El Niños, especially major ones. They also found that major snowstorms often struck the coastal NE US during such years and that the interior NE and especially the Midwest US were often considerably milder and drier (much less snow for instance) than normal during such years. It is only now and to a lesser extent, prior to the 1997-98 winter that meteorologists will sound extensive warnings to the most affected areas well ahead of time, such as we are seeing this year.
Quoting 29. FLWaterFront:

If there is another needless tragedy in Central Florida during the upcoming winter/spring (needless because of the number of lives lost and injuries, etc) I wonder if there will finally be a serious push to install tornado sirens in Florida cities? Back in February of 1998 a series of tornadoes struck the Kissimmee/Orlando/Sandord area and took 42 lives there. While these were EF-3 and EF-2 tornadoes, it is doubtful the same loss of life would have occurred had the exact same type of storm hit in populated areas of states like Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Illinois or numerous others which long ago installed warning sirens in most areas.

Even though Florida is not in the heart of tornado alley, tornadoes have taken quite a large number of lives here over the past several decades but officials continue to resist installing warning sirens and I think that is a mistake. This is an age where people are distracted by technology nearly all the time, are very busy with work and countless tasks most of the time and are exhausted and sleeping the rest of the time, especially in now-very-heavily-populated Florida. And that does not even count the 100 million tourists who come to Florida annually, at least some of whom live in places where they do have tornado warning sirens. Just advising everyone to have a weather warning radio at the ready does not cut it, in my opinion. Too many people here are unaware of the tornado risk and tune out weather in general during the non summer months and outside of hurricane season.


I understand your concern and I've thought similar before. However I've read that the main resistance to doing so is the fact that Florida gets numerous tornado warnings for weak tornado events of EF0-EF1 caliber. And it's not that tornado sirens don't go off for weak tornadoes in the plains too, and it's not that weak tornadoes aren't dangerous. It's just that the fear is that if the terrifying sound of tornado sirens is going off frequently during the summer months for quick spinup tornadoes, people will grow complacent. Because usually stronger tornado events in Florida that have resulted in deaths and significant destruction come in major 1-2 periods, or maybe some seasons are bad, but then afterward we may go several years without seeing a tornado stronger that EF1 in most of the sate, while numerous weaker tornadoes continue to cause minor damage and few injuries, similar to most thunderstorm wind events.
So years of tornado sirens going off for weak tornado events may cause people to become complacent when a more severe tornado event actually happens.

In fact I believe that Florida's relatively high tornado death and injury rate compared to it's fairly low frequency of strong tornadoes, already reflects the complacency of some Floridians because of how tornadoes happen in Florida. I don't know how many times I ran into Floridians that say they don't take tornado warnings seriously in Florida because "Florida gets hurricanes, not tornadoes, those only happen in the Midwest". Literally, I've heard numerous people in Florida make that exact or similar statement to me.
Heck, even in the plains, I've read that some people don't take the sirens seriously because they "always go off when nothing happens" as some will say. Now obviously these myths are the result of a lack of understanding in terms of how tornado warnings are issued, and also the fact that people tend to personalize everything such that if it didn't happen locally, it must not be a big deal, even if a tornado that prompted the warning did indeed cause damage and pain somewhere nearby.

Overall though, the fact that tornado deaths and injuries are much lower then in the past proves the success of education of severe weather by the NWS. BTW that brings up a somewhat unrelated topic, the rest of the government could learn from how the NWS operates, that is you don't increase safety by taking away liberties and making everything illegal that is dangerous. Rather you educate people about safety related to dangerous events, which makes people much more likely to listen and is a better solution for safety.
Quoting 70. FLWaterFront:

Just the first of a whole bunch of these that could push all the way into next May. Unless you've lived through a super El Niño event across the southernmost tier of the US from California to Florida to roughly the mid-Atlantic region, you probably fail to understand what all the fuss is about and think Floridians should stick to only paying attention to hurricanes. On this blog people probably mostly understand but most of the rest of the world does not.

It is also something that is relatively new because El Niños were not well understood by meteorologists in the US prior to the 1982-83 super event and this learning curve increased dramatically following the winter of 1997-98. Then meteorologists looked back at previous years and found a consistent correlation between unusually heavy winter rains and storms across the southernmost US and El Niños, especially major ones. They also found that major snowstorms often struck the coastal NE US during such years and that the interior NE and especially the Midwest US were often considerably milder and drier (much less snow for instance) than normal during such years. It is only now and to a lesser extent, prior to the 1997-98 winter that meteorologists will sound extensive warnings to the most affected areas well ahead of time, such as we are seeing this year.


In 1997 around Halloween we had our first major system to effect FL. Infact Orlando received 3" of rain in just 4 hours those last couple of days in October from a similar system that the Euro is showing. Oddly enough both Super El-Nino years.
Living in Houston and the local mets saying Fri/Sat heavy rain possibly in excess of 10". Do you see this or is it as a few of you have said, more to the east of Texas/La border?
Quoting 71. Jedkins01:



I understand your concern and I've thought similar before. However I've read that the main resistance to doing so is the fact that Florida gets numerous tornado warnings for weak tornado events of EF0-EF1 caliber. And it's not that tornado sirens don't go off for weak tornadoes in the plains too, and it's not that weak tornadoes aren't dangerous. It's just that the fear is that if the terrifying sound of tornado sirens is going off frequently during the summer months for quick spinup tornadoes, people will grow complacent. Because usually stronger tornado events in Florida that have resulted in deaths and significant destruction come in major 1-2 periods, or maybe some seasons are bad, but then afterward we may go several years without seeing a tornado stronger that EF1 in most of the sate, while numerous weaker tornadoes continue to cause minor damage and few injuries, similar to most thunderstorm wind events.
So years of tornado sirens going off for weak tornado events may cause people to become complacent when a more severe tornado event actually happens.

In fact I believe that Florida's relatively high tornado death and injury rate compared to it's fairly low frequency of strong tornadoes, already reflects the complacency of tornadoes. I don't know how many times I ran into Floridians that say they don't take tornado warnings seriously in Florida because "Florida gets hurricanes, not tornadoes, those only happen in the Midwest". Literally, I've heard numerous people in Florida make that exact or similar statement to me.
Heck, even in the plains, I've read that some people don't take the sirens seriously because they "always go off when nothing happens" as some will say. Now obviously these myths are the result of a lack of understanding in terms of how tornado warnings are issued, and also the fact that people tend to personalize everything such that if it didn't happen locally, it must not be a big deal, even if a tornado that prompted the warning did indeed cause damage and pain somewhere nearby.

Overall though, the fact that tornado deaths and injuries are much lower then in the past proves the success of education of severe weather by the NWS. BTW that brings up a somewhat unrelated topic, the rest of the government could learn from how the NWS operates, that is you don't increase safety by taking away liberties and making everything illegal that is dangerous. Rather you educate people about safety related to dangerous events, which makes people much more likely to listen and is a better solution for safety.


The tornadoes that hit in February of 1998 across C FL would have been rated EF 4 with the enhanced scale.
Quoting 73. robinvtx1215:

Living in Houston and the local mets saying Fri/Sat heavy rain possibly in excess of 10". Do you see this or is it as a few of you have said, more to the east of Texas/La border?



No that is likely close to correct. I suspect a solid 3" to 6" across your area later this week.
In terms of a potential in the short-term for a widespread Florida tornado threat (other than isolated with normal late Fall/Early Winter frontal passages), it is not likely at present as the El Nino "split-pattern" jet over Conus has not settled into place yet. We will probably have to wait several weeks before that pattern settles in.



Quoting 64. sar2401:

The barometer got up to 1030 mb early this morning as the high moved north of me. That's what I occasionally see in the dead of winter, not October. Pressure is now down to 1027 mb as the high continues to move east so the pressure gradient down there should start to decrease. Winds haven't been anything exceptional here with a high gust of only 14 mph so far. With a temperature of 75 and dewpoint of 43, our usual humid weather has now become more like Nevada.
Greetings Sar...Highest I saw here was 1042 MB...may have been higher.
You all are great. I love this blog. Thanks for all you do for those of us that lurk looking for the real deal in weather!!
Quoting 76. weathermanwannabe:

In terms of a potential in the short-term for a Florida tornado threat (other than isolated with normal late Fall/Early Winter frontal passages), it is not likely at present as the El Nino "split-pattern" jet over Conus has not settled into place yet. We will probably have to wait several weeks before that pattern settles in.





LOL! It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the models are beginning to go hay wire in the 6 to 10 day period across the SE US. We are definitely beginning to see the effects of this intense El-Nino rear its head.

From Dr. Steve Gregory's Blog
Strong Warm-Up on the Way as El Nino Flow Pattern Becomes Firmly Entrenched

Quoting 50. 62901IL:



Lando??


Yes, Lando. Where have you been? :):)
It's been windy on the coast today, with sustained winds at 20+ mph and gusts at 30+. Otherwise a beautiful day.
It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the greatest threat for widespread tornado activity is in the Spring period and the most tornadoes occur during a waning El Nino period in the Spring..............I doubt that we will have a severe tornado outbreak in October/November anywhere in tornado alley including Florida. Isolated ones related to a frontal or low passage, yes.
Quoting 74. StormTrackerScott:



The tornadoes that hit in February of 1998 across C FL would have been rated EF 4 with the enhanced scale.


I don't think so, the damage scale never changed, just the perception of how much wind it takes to cause that damage. In other words, the difference between an F4 and EF4 is that we know know it takes less wind to cause the same amount of damage. Basically, improving science found that what buildings were supposedly capable of withstanding from tornadoes was exaggerated how much tornado wind it takes to destroy the structure. But no really, often, tornado winds were rated based on the amount of wind a structure was supposed to take according to designed claims. So if a building was supposed to withstand up to 200 mph winds, if a tornado destroyed it, it would be rated at F4 with winds over 200 mph. But now, with the EF scale, you can look up tornado survey results where many times the wind rated results are much lower than the building is supposed to be able to with stand. I've seen tornadoes rated at notably lower speeds than the building designers claim the building is capable of. The schools destroyed by the Moore Oklahoma tornado for example, where supposedly able to handle winds over 200 mph, which they did not.
So if we look at old F scale damage rates, say an F3 tornado that was then rated at 180 mph in Florida then, today it would be rated still EF3, just the estimated winds would be lower, because we now know that it takes less than 180 mph to cause F3 rated damage, which is the basis for the EF scale.
Here is a full explanation below by the SPC:

Link

And of course ultimately, damage survey's are best estimates, so they aren't actual wind speeds, but that's the best we have that can work practically with consistency for now..
With that said, damage estimates can have limitations, for example, if tornadoes hit only trees and weak structures, it may not be possible for a tornado to be reasonably rated EF4 or EF5 because there isn't anything strong enough to put it to the test that was in the path. There was a tornado damage survey in Arkansas I believe it was either last year or the year before that had this issue. Dr. Masters did an article on it too, because the damage was utter destruction, but many wondered why it wasn't rated EF5, and the damage surveyors explained that literally every structure was weak and old based on old building codes that would never be accepted in that region today, and so EF4 damage and EF5 damage is hard to distinguish with weaker structures because well EF4's are also terribly destructive.

This is even true with EF3's, some of those EF3 rated FL tornadoes that caused a lot of deaths and injuries plowed through mostly mobile homes and forest. I know in some cases, there was talk that one of the tornadoes could have easily been EF4, but there were simply not strong enough structures to test that. Unfortunately that's the weakness of damage rating, but that's just how it goes.
Quoting 71. Jedkins01:



I understand your concern and I've thought similar before. However I've read that the main resistance to doing so is the fact that Florida gets numerous tornado warnings for weak tornado events of EF0-EF1 caliber. And it's not that tornado sirens don't go off for weak tornadoes in the plains too, and it's not that weak tornadoes aren't dangerous. It's just that the fear is that if the terrifying sound of tornado sirens is going off frequently during the summer months for quick spinup tornadoes, people will grow complacent. Because usually stronger tornado events in Florida that have resulted in deaths and significant destruction come in major 1-2 periods, or maybe some seasons are bad, but then afterward we may go several years without seeing a tornado stronger that EF1 in most of the sate, while numerous weaker tornadoes continue to cause minor damage and few injuries, similar to most thunderstorm wind events.
So years of tornado sirens going off for weak tornado events may cause people to become complacent when a more severe tornado event actually happens.

In fact I believe that Florida's relatively high tornado death and injury rate compared to it's fairly low frequency of strong tornadoes, already reflects the complacency of some Floridians because of how tornadoes happen in Florida. I don't know how many times I ran into Floridians that say they don't take tornado warnings seriously in Florida because "Florida gets hurricanes, not tornadoes, those only happen in the Midwest". Literally, I've heard numerous people in Florida make that exact or similar statement to me.
Heck, even in the plains, I've read that some people don't take the sirens seriously because they "always go off when nothing happens" as some will say. Now obviously these myths are the result of a lack of understanding in terms of how tornado warnings are issued, and also the fact that people tend to personalize everything such that if it didn't happen locally, it must not be a big deal, even if a tornado that prompted the warning did indeed cause damage and pain somewhere nearby.

Overall though, the fact that tornado deaths and injuries are much lower then in the past proves the success of education of severe weather by the NWS. BTW that brings up a somewhat unrelated topic, the rest of the government could learn from how the NWS operates, that is you don't increase safety by taking away liberties and making everything illegal that is dangerous. Rather you educate people about safety related to dangerous events, which makes people much more likely to listen and is a better solution for safety.
The good thing about a siren though is that its presence would serve as a major education tool, if used properly. Since so many places in Florida are devoid of any form of warning sirens in this age, once a tornado alert system is installed, people would quickly learn what it is and what it means, etc. This in turn would help to begin the process of slowly erasing the "Florida doesn't have tornadoes" form of ignorance that you mentioned.

Also, an alert system could be adjusted so that it did not go off during every locally severe summer thunderstorm that includes a small waterspout or a weak EF-0 funnel that is not touching the ground but instead be used only for the major storm systems that are more typical during the fall/winter/spring months in Florida.

Yes I know that with modern communications technology there are all sorts of innovative systems for smart phones, iPads, tablets, laptops and so on. But just as with the weather radios that have been promoted for so long here, unless someone is awake and paying attention, using their device or at least near it, then there are limitations to the effectiveness. A loud siren that is used sparingly will get most everyone's attention, even those deeply asleep at night with all their technology placed somewhere where they won't be awakened by it.

I also know there are no perfect solutions to this problem or issue but it remains true that most of the states in the Plains, the Midwest and in the South outside of Florida have extensive municipal tornado warning systems and I doubt they are removing these now because of new technologies.
Quoting 82. weathermanwannabe:

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the greatest threat for widespread tornado activity is in the Spring period and the most tornadoes occur during a waning El Nino period in the Spring..............I doubt that we will have a severe tornado outbreak in October/November anywhere in tornado alley including Florida. Isolated ones related to a frontal or low passage, yes.


Never said we would. Several members on here of us were discussing the potential for stronger tornadoes this Winter. I did say though that there could be some severe weather next week which indeed does appear to be the case but not significant so I don't know where you got that from. You might need to read back abit again to re evaluate your response instead of false conclusions.
Quoting 83. Jedkins01:



I don't think so, the damage scale never changed, just the perception of how much wind it takes to cause that damage. In other words, the difference between an F4 and EF4 is that we know know it takes less wind to cause the same amount of damage. Basically, improving science found that engineers exaggerate how much wind it takes to destroy their structures :) But no really, often, tornado winds were rated based on the amount of wind a structure cwas supposed to take according to engineer designed claims. So if a building was supposed to withstand up to 200 mph winds, if a tornado destroyed it, it would be rated at F4 with winds over 200 mph. But now, with the EF scale, you can look up tornado survey results where many times the wind rated results are much lower than the building is supposed to be able to with stand. I've seen EF3 rated tornadoes cause severe damage to structures supposedly designed to take winds up to 200 mph. The schools destroyed by the Moore Oklahoma tornado for example, where supposedly able to handle winds over 200 mph, which they did not.

So if we look at old F scale damage rates, say an F3 tornado that was then rated at 180 mph in Florida then, today it would be rated still EF3, just the estimated winds would be lower, because we now know that it takes less than 180 mph to cause F3 rated damage, which is the basis for the EF scale.

Here is a full explanation below by the SPC:

Link


And of course ultimately, damage survey's are best estimates, so they aren't actual wind speeds, but that's the nest we have that can work practically with consistency for now, so it is what it is.


The wind scale was re evaluated if I'm not mistaken.
Everyone have a good afternoon. See Yall another time.
I know some some of you are going to throw up on your keyboards but Rush Limbaugh mentioned WU on his radio show today, says he comes here to read tropical weather but he said the site was down and asked if anyone could contact WU and get it fixed, well looks like some listened to him, the site is up and running well, I've had issues for the last 3 or 4 days with connectivity on the site freezing up, seems like all is fixed. You never know who is lurking on this site. :)
Quoting 88. trunkmonkey:

I know some some of you are going to throw up on your keyboards but Rush Limbaugh mentioned WU on his radio show today, says he comes here to read tropical weather but he said the site was down and asked if anyone could contact WU and get it fixed, well looks like some listened to him, the site is up and running well, I've had issues for the last 3 or 4 days with connectivity on the site freezing up, seems like all is fixed. You never know who is lurking on this site. :)


LOL! You would think with TWC and WU teamed up we would have less issues but instead issues have been much worse.
Quoting 83. Jedkins01:



I don't think so, the damage scale never changed, just the perception of how much wind it takes to cause that damage. In other words, the difference between an F4 and EF4 is that we know know it takes less wind to cause the same amount of damage. Basically, improving science found that what buildings were supposedly capable of withstanding from tornadoes was exaggerated how much tornado wind it takes to destroy the structure. But no really, often, tornado winds were rated based on the amount of wind a structure was supposed to take according to designed claims. So if a building was supposed to withstand up to 200 mph winds, if a tornado destroyed it, it would be rated at F4 with winds over 200 mph. But now, with the EF scale, you can look up tornado survey results where many times the wind rated results are much lower than the building is supposed to be able to with stand. I've seen tornadoes rated at notably lower speeds than the building designers claim the building is capable of. The schools destroyed by the Moore Oklahoma tornado for example, where supposedly able to handle winds over 200 mph, which they did not.
So if we look at old F scale damage rates, say an F3 tornado that was then rated at 180 mph in Florida then, today it would be rated still EF3, just the estimated winds would be lower, because we now know that it takes less than 180 mph to cause F3 rated damage, which is the basis for the EF scale.
Here is a full explanation below by the SPC:

Link

And of course ultimately, damage survey's are best estimates, so they aren't actual wind speeds, but that's the best we have that can work practically with consistency for now..
With that said, damage estimates can have limitations, for example, if tornadoes hit only trees and weak structures, it may not be possible for a tornado to be reasonably rated EF4 or EF5 because there isn't anything strong enough to put it to the test that was in the path. There was a tornado damage survey in Arkansas I believe it was either last year or the year before that had this issue. Dr. Masters did an article on it too, because the damage was utter destruction, but many wondered why it wasn't rated EF5, and the damage surveyors explained hat literally every structure was weak and old, and so EF4 damage and EF5 damage is hard to distinguish with weaker structures because well EF4 are also terribly destructive.

This is even true with EF3's, some of those EF3 rated FL tornadoes that caused a lot of deaths and injuries plowed through mostly mobile homes and forest. I know in some cases, there was talk that one of the tornadoes could have easily been EF4, but there were simply not strong enough structures to test that. Unfortunately that's the weakness of damage rating, but that's just how it goes.


I remember that tornado. Here ya go Jedkins.

One of the homes was built with bolts along the foundation perimeter and was reduced to a bare slab, normally indicative of EF5 strength; however, it was found that the anchor bolts were not secured with nuts and washers, and nearby vehicles were not moved, which indicated a lesser intensity

Vilonia, Arkansas-EF4
East wind really picked up here on the S shore of lake Pontchartrain.

Quoting 80. Grothar:



Yes, Lando. Where have you been? :):)


He been locked up in WU jailed
Quoting 88. trunkmonkey:

I know some some of you are going to throw up on your keyboards but Rush Limbaugh mentioned WU on his radio show today, says he comes here to read tropical weather but he said the site was down and asked if anyone could contact WU and get it fixed, well looks like some listened to him, the site is up and running well, I've had issues for the last 3 or 4 days with connectivity on the site freezing up, seems like all is fixed. You never know who is lurking on this site. :)
I now the people who write for CWG lurk here as well.
People are boycotting StarWars on twitter because one of the main protagonist is AA.SMH Its a good thing I have this site to escape to where the ignorance is not as out right in your face as other sites.
Quoting 88. trunkmonkey:

I know some some of you are going to throw up on your keyboards but Rush Limbaugh mentioned WU on his radio show today, says he comes here to read tropical weather but he said the site was down and asked if anyone could contact WU and get it fixed, well looks like some listened to him, the site is up and running well, I've had issues for the last 3 or 4 days with connectivity on the site freezing up, seems like all is fixed. You never know who is lurking on this site. :)


That is true. I wonder who may be lurking here at times.

Rush, if you read this, you are welcome to post on Dr. Rood's blog. That could prove to be interesting.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1m1 minute ago
#Olaf is now the southernmost Cat 4 #hurricane on record for the Western Hemisphere N of equator! #ElNino #climate
Quoting 66. Astrometeor:



You must have some wimpy sirens, or not enough of them. If one of those goes off back in Nashville, it's loud and clear even inside my house. But we heavily use our weather radio, we have it set to go off when a tornado warning is issued, this is important for those night storms that we would otherwise sleep through.

At school in PA, we have a text based alert system that the police use to distribute weather information and emergency information to the student body. It's completely voluntary to sign up for, but I'd say 99% of campus has it.
Nashville has hills. Lots of hills. Those are good places to set up sirens that can be heard long distances. We don't have hills of any size. Most of our sirens are on towers that aren't far above the trees. The closest to me is on top of city hall, three blocks away. I can sometimes hear it if I'm paying attention because the weather radio went off but I wouldn't notice it otherwise. Being deaf in one ear doesn't help, but many of the sirens here are old, weak, and sometimes inoperative.

The biggest problems with sirens are just the volume of warnings that sometime occur, especially during spring outbreaks. I think we had the sirens go off 11 times during the 2011 outbreak, some because there was a tornado that might clip a small corner of the county, and some because BMX was issuing warnings on every storm that looked like it might have rotation before the day was done. Not one tornado ever touched down in the county, and everyone was pretty much ignoring sirens by the late afternoon. At that point, the siren system became a very expensive annoyance. A weather radio or cell phone with a loud enough warning tone is really the only answer for those asleep. One of the reasons why nighttime storms are more fatal is that people don't hear sirens when they are asleep.
Quoting 96. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



That is true. I wonder who may be lurking here at times.

Rush, if you read this, you are welcome to post on Dr. Rood's blog. That could prove to be interesting.
Good heavens...
Had almost 1035mb (30.55") Sun morning in S C IL sar. Didn't get freeze in my county, but spotty frost in town, looked pretty wide spread out at farm to S as forecast. Warming up quickly now that it has passed to our E, and S-SSW winds have been blowing pretty good all day. Currently, 72 w/ 34 dew pt, 30.16", gust to about 30. Saw a possibility of 40 mph in last night's forecast, but not recorded yet. Still, pretty gusty and obviously not tapping gulf w/ those dew pts. Have pushed the rain chance we had for Thurs in last week's extended forecast out to Fri/Sat now. We could use some moisture, especially now that most of the crops are out.
101. 882MB
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC113-192230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0006.151019T2032Z-151019T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 PM AST MON OCT 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
PONCE MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 427 PM AST...RADAR AND GAUGE REPORTS FROM THE PORTUGUES RIVER
AND RIO INABON INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
SOME AREAS . FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA WILL CAUSE MUD SLIDES NEAR
STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST OF
ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN RIO PURTUGUESE FROM THE CREST OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL TO THE PORTUGUES DAM AND THE RIO INABON FROM
ANON TO CERRILLOS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 1802 6656 1809 6661 1814 6664 1813 6656
1811 6656 1805 6655

$$

SNELL

Quoting 98. sar2401:

Nashville has hills. Lots of hills. Those are good places to set up sirens that can be heard long distances. We don't have hills of any size. Most of our sirens are on towers that aren't far above the trees. The closest to me is on top of city hall, three blocks away. I can sometimes hear it if I'm paying attention because the weather radio went off but I wouldn't notice it otherwise. Being deaf in one ear doesn't help, but many of the sirens here are old, weak, and sometimes inoperative.

The biggest problems with sirens are just the volume of warnings that sometime occur, especially during spring outbreaks. I think we had the sirens go off 11 times during the 2011 outbreak, some because there was a tornado that might clip a small corner of the county, and some because BMX was issuing warnings on every storm that looked like it might have rotation before the day was done. Not one tornado ever touched down in the county, and everyone was pretty much ignoring sirens by the late afternoon. At that point, the siren system became a very expensive annoyance. A weather radio or cell phone with a loud enough warning tone is really the only answer for those asleep. One of the reasons why nighttime storms are more fatal is that people don't hear sirens when they are asleep.


Maybe attach a siren atop of your house? Then the county will know that there's a warning cause sar will be out there shaking his fist at the siren. :)

We've had talks in the county of only using the sirens in the area of the county where the warning is applicable.
Quoting 84. FLWaterFront:

The good thing about a siren though is that its presence would serve as a major education tool, if used properly. Since so many places in Florida are devoid of any form of warning sirens in this age, once a tornado alert system is installed, people would quickly learn what it is and what it means, etc. This in turn would help to begin the process of slowly erasing the "Florida doesn't have tornadoes" form of ignorance that you mentioned.

Also, an alert system could be adjusted so that it did not go off during every locally severe summer thunderstorm that includes a small waterspout or a weak EF-0 funnel that is not touching the ground but instead be used only for the major storm systems that are more typical during the fall/winter/spring months in Florida.

Yes I know that with modern communications technology there are all sorts of innovative systems for smart phones, iPads, tablets, laptops and so on. But just as with the weather radios that have been promoted for so long here, unless someone is awake and paying attention, using their device or at least near it, then there are limitations to the effectiveness. A loud siren that is used sparingly will get most everyone's attention, even those deeply asleep at night with all their technology placed somewhere where they won't be awakened by it.

I also know there are no perfect solutions to this problem or issue but it remains true that most of the states in the Plains, the Midwest and in the South outside of Florida have extensive municipal tornado warning systems and I doubt they are removing these now because of new technologies.
OK, here's a question. Who's going to actually set the sirens off? Most of the time, it's going to be the county EMA. I don't know about your county, but my county's EMA does not have the capacity for yet another task. They do set off the sirens. I talked to the EMA director (and only full-time employee) about how he goes about this. He stated that when the NWS issues a warning for any part of the county, he pushes the switch. He doesn't bother to look at maps of where the storm might go because he doesn't have the time and, frankly, I don't think he'd know what he was looking at. As long as the warning includes any place in the county, the sirens go off. Bad system, since we end up getting many false alarms for storms that never happen, and those that do tend to be in one small corner of the county. So, if you propose Florida installing sirens, not even looking at the huge first cost, someone has to be in charge. Give your county EMA a call and see what kind of reception your idea gets.
Quoting 102. Astrometeor:



Maybe attach a siren atop of your house? Then the county will know that there's a warning cause sar will be out there shaking his fist at the siren. :)

We've had talks in the county of only using the sirens in the area of the county where the warning is applicable.
LOL. I don't think my fiance would like that idea. :-)

My county is physically pretty large at 905 square miles but small in population, at 27,000. Eufaula is the major metropolis at 13,000. Clayton, the county seat supposedly has 3,000, although it looks like a lot less. Clio, known as the birthplace of George Wallace and Don Sutton, is the only other city in the county and has 1,400 or so. The rest of the 10,000 people live in "communities" that have less than 300 people or out in the woods. Some of our sirens, from what I've seen, go back to the Cold War and are probably filled with pine needles.

Given all this, I have never even broached the subject of geographic isolation for sirens with our EMA. :-)
Quoting 77. hydrus:

Greetings Sar...Highest I saw here was 1042 MB...may have been higher.
I think you were almost at the center of the high for a while early this morning. Amazingly high pressure for this early in the fall. It's surprising the gradient winds haven't been stronger. Pressure is down to 1025 now as the high moves away, and the few gusts we've had are just about over. The breeze kept the temperature from getting below 45 this morning. Might get into the high 30's tonight with the low humidity if we get calm winds.
Hello, as barbamz had posted here already, there is an interesting low pressure system in the Atlantic on the Portuguese and Spain coast, but I have to share this two Jet Stream pictures. Current situation:



and forecast for Wednesday 12z:



that looks so unreal from the standard circulation viewpoint with the extreme meandering, but what do I know anyway.

Here is a current loop for the Meteosat visualized satellite rain product for West Africa and the probably healthy rain band in the Sahara, click on 24 Frames in Animation button and of course take this with a train load of salt, it ain't radar

Here an animation of the water vapor loop for the big picture


Is the Atlantic Season over for sure now that 92L likely won't do anything, or could we get one more storm?
Quoting 17. knightwarrior41:

i am quite tired of the rain here in south florida and i just want a nice dry and cool fall/winter down here. are there any hints to that in the future,scott?
Sorry Warrior, if you don't like wet weather or rain move somewhere else, like Texas or Arizona where it's a lot drier.
18Z GFS trending with the Euro. Looks as if the rainy weather associated with El-Nino is coming.
Quoting 107. HurricaneFan:

Is the Atlantic Season over for sure now that 92L likely won't do anything, or could we get one more storm?



92L is gone why are you all still calling it 92L when we dont have 92L any more the word you are looking for now is ex 92L if you still want too call it 92L then at lest call it ex 92L but dont call it 92L if we dont have it any more call it ex 92L for now on
112. beell
Quoting 82. weathermanwannabe:

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the greatest threat for widespread tornado activity is in the Spring period and the most tornadoes occur during a waning El Nino period in the Spring..............I doubt that we will have a severe tornado outbreak in October/November anywhere in tornado alley including Florida. Isolated ones related to a frontal or low passage, yes.


Don't forget the "Second Severe" season of October & November.
Quoting 64. sar2401:

The barometer got up to 1030 mb early this morning as the high moved north of me. That's what I occasionally see in the dead of winter, not October. Pressure is now down to 1027 mb as the high continues to move east so the pressure gradient down there should start to decrease. Winds haven't been anything exceptional here with a high gust of only 14 mph so far. With a temperature of 75 and dewpoint of 43, our usual humid weather has now become more like Nevada.


Well, at least you have cooler weather than Miami, even if it's only by a few degrees. Wind gusts still pretty decent here, getting up to 35 every few minutes, since it sounds as loud as cars driving through 30 mph speed limit residential areas.
Notice this 500mb pattern digging in the Gulf. Lots of rain coming for the Gulf Coast states.

Hopefully we start getting some rain across S.W. Florida (Fort Myers).
We got over 10" in September, but we've only seen 1.25" so far in October (19 days).
116. beell
A sampling of "Second Severe".













Quoting 114. StormTrackerScott:

Notice this 500mb pattern digging in the Gulf. Lots of rain coming for the Gulf Coast states.



Scott if we can get this trough to dig southeastward and tilt negative we will be rockin and rollin in Florida and the Gulf Coast. Good depiction of trough friend
Winds howling where I live... Feeling like a TS!!!
They're using my home town as the reference point..... this can't be good.

Satellite pictures indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a low pressure system located about 250 miles
southeast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
organized. The circulation of the low also appears be better
defined than yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for
continued development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the low moves west-northwestward
or northwestward offshore of the coast of southeastern Mexico.
Interests along the south-central and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.
120. beell
Quoting 119. DogtownMex:

They're using my home town as the reference point..... this can't be good.

Satellite pictures indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a low pressure system located about 250 miles
southeast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
organized. The circulation of the low also appears be better
defined than yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for
continued development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the low moves west-northwestward
or northwestward offshore of the coast of southeastern Mexico
.
Interests along the south-central and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.



How many southeastern coasts does Mexico have?
;-)
Now IBM interested in TWC

The owners of the Weather Channel are in advanced talks with IBM about the sale of its digital assets, according to sources close to the situation.


The Weather Company has been mulling a variety of such plans for more than a year, as has been widely reported, talking to a number of different parties about buying either parts or all of its troika of assets.

Those include: The product and technology division, which offers a range of digital weather information via apps and websites and also data sets; the television division, with the flagship cable property, the Weather Channel; and a large meteorological team, providing weather forecasting for a variety of consumer and also business sectors such as aviation.

Sources said that nothing may come of the discussions with IBM, but there is likely to be some transaction for the Weather Company in the coming months.

The Weather Company is currently owned by two private equity firms — Blackstone Group and Bain Capital — as well as NBCUniversal. The trio paid $3.5 billion for the company in 2008.

Sources said NBCU was not bidding for the cable TV channel; while it is available in 100 million U.S. households, its actual viewership is not large, nor is it growing, a fact that Weather Company CEO David Kenny noted recently.

In fact, NBCU owner Comcast wrote down its investment to $86 million in an earlier quarter this year, taking $250 million in value off its stake.

But IBM has a big interest in Weather Company products, recently signing a strategic alliance with its global B2B division, WSI. In a press release, the pair described an “emergency management solution that features sophisticated analytics and the use of real-time weather data to help communities predict and plan for natural disasters far more accurately and deploy the right resources in advance.”

It’s part of a bigger effort by IBM around working with local governments in the cloud computing arena. Sophisticated weather analysis would be a strong addition to other offerings such as a law enforcement cloud database that IBM is building.

Spokespeople for the Weather Company and IBM declined to comment.

Quoting 118. Camerooski:

Winds howling where I live... Feeling like a TS!!!
How many tropical storms have you been in?

I think the school busses will still be running tomorrow. :-)
Quoting 117. WeatherConvoy:


Scott if we can get this trough to dig southeastward and tilt negative we will be rockin and rollin in Florida and the Gulf Coast. Good depiction of trough friend
Even with a Super Godzilla El Nino, that's not a pattern that's going to bring more than rain to Florida in October. It's also 198 hours out. I suspect the rockin and rollin is going to be reserved for much later this year.
"HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015

Olaf has continued to rapidly intensify today. The hurricane has a
classical appearance on satellite imagery..."

"Classical" vs. merely "classic". So, Medieval, Baroque or perhaps Romantic?
Quoting 112. beell:



Don't forget the "Second Severe" season of October & November.
Alabama doesn't get many October tornadoes without a tropical system, but things do ramp up in late October and November as more strong cold fronts work their way south and collide with unstable Gulf return flow. So far this year, it's the return flow that's been lacking. We'll see what November brings.
Quoting 113. ElConando:



Well, at least you have cooler weather than Miami, even if it's only by a few degrees. Wind gusts still pretty decent here, getting up to 35 every few minutes, since it sounds as loud as cars driving through 30 mph speed limit residential areas.
As much as I like the tropics, Miami is just too constantly hot and humid or me. If I was going to live with that there are lots of nice islands that have a lot more to offer than Miami. Some of them even have high ground. :-)
Olaf, now a Category 4 hurricane, still intensifying and still headed due west.
Quoting 24. StormTrackerScott:

Strong piece of energy heading SE toward Coastal Texas @ day 10. Euro shows this too.





Horrifying! This could bring floods, blackouts, high winds and misery to TX residents.
129. beell
Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:



No that is likely close to correct. I suspect a solid 3" to 6" across your area later this week.


For Houston and on down the coast a bit...I never thought I'd say this...but I think your totals may be too low!
:)
Quoting 80. Grothar:



Yes, Lando. Where have you been? :):)


Away. Enduring a 72 hour ban (i think)

Quoting 122. sar2401:

How many tropical storms have you been in?

I think the school busses will still be running tomorrow. :-)
not enough. :)
Quoting 128. pureet1948:




Horrifying! This could bring floods, blackouts, high winds and misery to TX residents.
The way you are reading this map, must mean that Seattle will be experiencing 100 mph winds....
Quoting 132. Camerooski:

The way you are reading this map, must mean that Seattle will be experiencing 100 mph winds....


Don't you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to us? I'm getting a strong sense of deja vu here. (Pardon my drama)
Here in Lake Worth/West Palm, beautiful night out. Cloudy and very windy with nice temps and humidity. Nice evening to sit on the patio with the pup, good music and enjoy.
Quoting 133. pureet1948:



Don't you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to Houston? I'm getting a strong sense of deja vu here. (Pardon my drama)
Quoting 130. 62901IL:



Away. Enduring a 72 hour ban (i think)




What did you do now?
Quoting 135. pureet1948:





Actually when I said horrifying, this is what I was talking about:

Based on the way the clouds are zipping around the core of Olaf now, I'd guess this storm has already hit Cat 5. Must have found some good deep warm water.
The East & Central Pacific has been super active this year, look at the stats for the 2015 Pacific Hurricane season so far:

Total ACE: 222.4 (3rd all time, could well go 2nd)
Total TS: 23 (Tied for 3rd all-time)
Total Hurricanes: 14 (Tied for 2nd all-time)
Total Major Hurricanes: 9 (Tied for 2nd all-time)
Last major freeze that hit NOLa and surrounding Parish's was 23 December 1989.

A true Blue Norther it was as we dropped to 11F in Metairie.

Lake P's South Shore froze out a quarter mile in areas.


Also, if Olaf does hit Category 5 (and it might already have), it will be the 3rd latest Pacific hurricane to do so since 1959. The other two are the 1959 'Mexico' Hurricane (reached Cat 5 on October 27) and 2002's Hurricane Kenna (reached Cat 5 on October 24). A close fourth, and the only other October Category 5 hurricane in the Pacific is 2009's Rick, which hit Cat 5 strength on October 18.
Olaf

Quoting 142. skycycle:

Also, if Olaf does hit Category 5 (and it might already have), it will be the 3rd latest Pacific hurricane to do so since 1959. The other two are the 1959 'Mexico' Hurricane (reached Cat 5 on October 27) and 2002's Hurricane Kenna (reached Cat 5 on October 24). A close fourth, and the only other October Category 5 hurricane in the Pacific is 2009's Rick, which hit Cat 5 strength on October 18.

And BTW, the "R" storm this year will also be "Rick" in the EPac. We have a shot at getting to Rick and beyond.
A wobble here or there, but otherwise due West. It's stayed consistently south of model forecasts so far, like many other EPac/CPac storms this season. Hawaii should keep a watchful eye on Olaf, despite the forecast.

Olaf RGB Loop

Quoting 141. Patrap:

Last major freeze that hit NOLa and surrounding Parish's was 23 December 1989.

A true Blue Norther it was as we dropped to 11F in Metairie.

Lake P's South Shore froze out a quarter mile in areas.



Yep...It snowed in Port Charlotte Christmas Eve night..Hard to forget .
Quoting 145. TimSoCal:

A wobble here or there, but otherwise due West. It's stayed consistently south of model forecasts so far, like many other EPac/CPac storms this season. Hawaii should keep a watchful eye on Olaf, despite the forecast.



If it makes it to 150W before making the predicted turn, Hawaii will have to activate that magic force field, or batten down.
Quoting 112. beell:



Don't forget the "Second Severe" season of October & November.
Only reason I remember this second season day - 11-7-11 is the Tipton tornado was rated EF4 and it destroyed a mesonet station. Oh, and that day was my Dad's birthday.

Even in Oklahoma, unusual for November to bring an EF4. (Add: As I'm sure you know, but others may not.)
There was frost on my windshield today. I should have kept track but I am sure this is the earliest frost in my downtown Baltimore neighborhood since before 2000. BWI airport and Dulles airport had sharp freezes.
Quoting 148. BayFog:


If it makes it to 150W before making the predicted turn, Hawaii will have to activate that magic force field, or batten down.
Iniki hit Hawaii with an upper cut turn. If Olaf turns north, let's hope that happens long before it reaches the islands. Also, I sure hope "Olaf" gets a Hawaiian name soon.
;)

Thanks for posting the Pacific hurricane updates.
Quoting 111. Tazmanian:




92L is gone why are you all still calling it 92L when we dont have 92L any more the word you are looking for now is ex 92L if you still want too call it 92L then at lest call it ex 92L but dont call it 92L if we dont have it any more call it ex 92L for now on

This has to be a record for the most times "92L" was mentioned in a single post
Looks like Olaf may be developing an outflow channel to the north, and possibly another to the southwest. A little dry air intrusion too, but a huge moist inflow from the south and east, plus an intense core, plus the warm SSTs ought to overcome it.
Quoting 145. TimSoCal:

A wobble here or there, but otherwise due West. It's stayed consistently south of model forecasts so far, like many other EPac/CPac storms this season. Hawaii should keep a watchful eye on Olaf, despite the forecast.



That sure is pretty......
Allison was crazy and awesome at the same time. Loss of life is always sad. What amazed me if literally started raining at my house around 10pm that night and rained hard and solid until 8 am that morning. I normally went out on Friday nights but stayed in then. I would have been stuck near downtown for a day or two...yuck!

Quoting 133. pureet1948:



Don't you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to us? I'm getting a strong sense of deja vu here. (Pardon my drama)
19th century lithograph showing volcanic activity of Mt Vesuvius between 1631 and 1831.

Olaf will more than likely make that northerly turn, but Hawaii should still watch it.
I am glad that the death toll from Typhoon Koppu is low and hope that continues to be so.
Quoting 156. BaltimoreBrian:

19th century lithograph showing volcanic activity of Mt Vesuvius between 1631 and 1831.





Grothar was always better than myself with the silk and water coloring thing.....
That may have been one of Grothar's students Patrap :) I didn't mean to post that here, I meant to on my blog but if people like it it will stay.
Quoting 157. Camerooski:

Olaf will more than likely make that northerly turn, but Hawaii should still watch it.
As long as it doesn't wait, linger west too long... Yes, it needs to be watched, and I am sure the right eyes of the right eyes are on this storm.
Quoting 155. BrazoriaMan:

Allison was crazy and awesome at the same time. Loss of life is always sad. What amazed me if literally started raining at my house around 10pm that night and rained hard and solid until 8 am that morning. I normally went out on Friday nights but stayed in then. I would have been stuck near downtown for a day or two...yuck!




Well, my friend, if you liked Allison, you'll absolutely flip over the what our local mets have on tap for this weekend, courtesy of (the late?) 92L. It may even be TS Allison on steroids.
I don't know if we will see 30 plus inches of rain anywhere, but I did see that a good portion of the Houston area has the chance to have up to 7 or 8 inches of rain. Of course who knows what localized spots could get. All I know i I pray it rains enough to end the drought without any casualties.

Quoting 162. pureet1948:



Well, my friend, if you liked Allison, you'll absolutely flip over the what our local mets have on tap for this weekend, courtesy of (the late?) 92L. It may even be TS Allison on steroids.
Quoting 163. BrazoriaMan:

I don't know if we will see 30 plus inches of rain anywhere, but I did see that a good portion of the Houston area has the chance to have up to 7 or 8 inches of rain. Of course who knows what localized spots could get. All I know i I pray it rains enough to end the drought without any casualties.




My friend, when you have a tropical low interacting with the tail end of a front over the Houston area, it spells trouble.
LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!
I pray we do not have extensive power outages as a consequence of this.
Still got vis out there.


vis0(laf) Oct 19, 2015, 8 pm cdt
Image credit: Noaa
Polls are now closed in all of Canada except British Columbia and Yukon. Live results here
Quoting 58. sar2401:

The CMC always has a tropical cyclone moving somewhere at 240 hours. On December 1, they'll suddenly disappear, and the CMC can go back to what it does best -- blizzards.
Has the CMC ever been right?
Quoting 152. LiveToFish0430:

This has to be a record for the most times "92L" was mentioned in a single post
agreed! :)
Quoting 165. pureet1948:



My friend, when you have a tropical low interacting with the tail end of a front over the Houston area, it spells trouble. LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

I pray we do not have extensive power outages as a consequence of this.
WindyWind has picked up here this evening in northern Dade. Many gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range.
I think it's pre93l.

175. OCF
Two notes from Long Beach, CA:

1. The overnight low was 68. That was the first time in about 2 weeks it had been below 70. It's been a very tiresome and uncomfortable October. Part of the change was that the overnight dew points were finally in the low 60's instead of the high 60's.

2. A surprise shower around sundown. I had no idea this morning that that was even supposed to be possible. .02 inches at the airport, but judging by some of the rain streaks I saw in the sky, quite a bit more than that in a few places.
Quoting 170. BaltimoreBrian:

The moon is approaching earth at 131 mph
Hit the Decks!!
Liberals defeat the incumbent conservative government in Canada and will win majority with at least 184 out of 338 seats.

To note--this is the first Canadian election with turnout exceeding 15 million votes cast. And now turnout has exceeded 16 million votes cast. And 17 million. Well done!
Quoting 115. Sfloridacat5:

Hopefully we start getting some rain across S.W. Florida (Fort Myers).
We got over 10" in September, but we've only seen 1.25" so far in October (19 days).


Better than me, My only rain for the month was 0.62 on October 2nd. No rain in sight in the area since October 2nd. No rain chance here until at least next week will place us on at least 3 and a half weeks straight without rain by that point as we are already at 17 days since the last rain here. This time of year does get dry though. It's getting cooler, fall colors are starting to show up and the lack of rain is leading to dying grass. Summer is long gone.
I can't wait til this weekend with the well needed rain that's coming. Welcome El nino.
Quoting 50. 62901IL:



Lando??




You called?
187. 7544
now playin 7 days out .

Link


City of Houston now in 1-3 inch rain rage according to 00z GFS model run. That is somewhat less than what's been predicted. Anybody agree?
Quoting 106. ChrisHamburg:
Hello, as barbamz had posted here already, there is an interesting low pressure system in the Atlantic on the Portuguese and Spain coast, but I have to share this two Jet Stream pictures. [...]

Good morning. For all who are interested in the latest of this unnamed but persistent low with some subtropical characteristics southwest of the Iberian peninsula (where it triggered flooding f.e. in Jerez/southwestern Spain), here a loop of the last 12 hours:
Link

According to the models (below UKMET) it should wander south along the west African coast the next days:



In the Mediterranean windy and wet weather should move eastwards the next days as the map below, showing accumulated rains, reveals very well:


Model EURO4. Source.

As most of you will know weather in central, northern (Sweden) and southeastern Europe, but as well in the Middle East is very important at present in respect to the ten thousands or even hundred thousands of refugees and migrants on the move without any shelter or with inappropriate shelter due to a lack of accommodations for so many in a short period of time. In my city Mainz as in every other town in Germany gyms, halls, youth hostels, vacant tenments, unused supermarkets and former military accomodations (from US and German forces) are converted into shelters with high speed, but it's still not enough to avoid the use of tents. The unusual pool of cold air which lingered over Germany the last week has moved to the Balkans in the recent days, causing a lot of misery for those still on the track, and the bad weather which will hit the Aegean Sea the next days will affect more people. In Syria it's getting cold as well, and the latest fighting and destruction in Aleppo triggered a new wave of refugees who are spending nights in the open.

I won't have to elaborate the issues, I think. But if you see a map with European weather in the next months, please donate a compassionate thought.
Have a nice day, everyone. I won't have much time for weather the next days, but I hope some other Europeans will help out in case something especially severe is happening.

Freezing migrants cry foul as cold bites
The Local (Germany), Published: 20 Oct 2015 08:34 GMT 02:00
As the thermometer dips towards zero in Germany, thousands of asylum seekers spending their nights in tents are pleading for authorities to find them alternative housing. ...
Winds are actually increasing when they should be diminishing here in Broward County WOW
194. MahFL
Quoting 190. BaltimoreBrian:

No, Donald Trump, the existence of fall does not disprove global warming By former wundergrounder Angela Fritz


Trump is just saying stuff to get headlines, he's already apologized and u-turned on women and Mexicans after insulting both of them.
Quoting 190. BaltimoreBrian:

No, Donald Trump, the existence of fall does not disprove global warming By former wundergrounder Angela Fritz
Go Angela!
Quoting 193. tampabaymatt:


Looks like today may be the last day of overcast skies over Nassau for a while .... I hope the windy conditions last for at least one more day, though, to help keep the "feels like" temperature down .... :o)

Everyone have a good day!

Off topic, but what better place to ask...

What planet or star is shinning so brightly in the Southeastern sky right now? 6:10am CDT

Thanks in advance!
Yesterday outside Port of Miami. More of the same on tap for today. (photo from Miami Herald)
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
449 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1236 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/20/2015 M40 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

THE MOLASSES REEF C-MAN STATION REPORTED A NON
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST AT 35 KNOTS...40 MPH.

0126 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/20/2015 M40 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS REOPORTED BY THE C-MAN
STATION AT MOLASSES REEF LIGHT.

0334 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/20/2015 M39 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

THE C-MAN REPORTING STATION AT MOLASSES REEF MEASURED A
WIND GUST AT 34 KNOTS...39 MPH.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
10/20/2015 M44 MPH GMZ034 XX C-MAN STATION

THE C-MAN REPORTING STATION AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT
MEASURED A NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 38 KNOTS...44
MPH.


&&

$$

COTTRILL
Quoting 190. BaltimoreBrian:

No, Donald Trump, the existence of fall does not disprove global warming By former wundergrounder Angela Fritz
With that global warming tweet, Trump proves once again that he's either a) trolling, b) dumb as a bag of hammers, or c) both. To any right-thinking person, any one of those would be an immediate disqualifier from the highest office in the land. Yet he leads the polls. (Go figure.)

Imagine a few years from now when an emergency global summit is called due to the growing catastrophic nature of climate change. Conversation moves around the room as each serious, sober-minded world leader from around the planet, accompanied by her/his nation's best scientific minds, tells how warming has affected them and how they plan to both deal with its effects and mitigate future warming. Then the dialog stops in front of the small tabletop sign that reads, "United States / President Donald Trump". All eyes and ears are turned towards the leader of the nation that continues to churn out the highest amount of CO2 per-capita. President Trump looks silently around the room, ensuring that he holds everyone's absolute attention before finally speaking in his harsh New York accent.

"Look at all these losers, are you kidding me? What global warming? On my limousine ride over here--and it's the biggest, best limousine ever, let me tell you--I saw frost on a window. No, it's true, it's true. I saw a bit of frost on a window, and I know it's frost, trust me, I grew up in New York, and I saw plenty of frost when I was a kid, I think it's the frostiest place on the planet. I saw that frost, and I thought, 'Are you kidding me? Why did I travel all the way here to listen to a bunch of losers complaining about (air quotes) "global warming" when there's freakin' frost on windows? 'I'm no scientist--I'm a businessman, let me tell you, and I'm rich, very, very rich because I'm the best at it, maybe the best that ever was or ever will be--but, you know, you don't see frost in the summertime, right? And you don't see it in summer because it's too warm. Right? So if the planet is warming like all you losers keep saying, why did I see frost this morning? Huh? Can anyone answer that? And I'll tell you what else. I'm supposed to go skiing next month. I ski a lot--I could have been an Olympic skier, because I am really great at it, so great, let me tell you--but should I cancel my ski trip? Because if there's (air quotes) "global warming", there won't be any snow, right? I guess no one will ski anymore, oh boo-hoo, kids, no ski trip this year because all the snow is gone forever. "

Finished, Pres. Trump leans back in his chair, arms folded triumphantly across his chest...

---

This could happen. (shudders)
Quoting 197. cajunkid:

Off topic, but what better place to ask...

What planet or star is shinning so brightly in the Southeastern sky right now? 6:10am CDT

Thanks in advance!


That'd be Venus :) Which is coming into a nice conjunction with Mars and Jupiter, should you fancy nosying around for it :) Also, keep your eyes peeled for meteors, if the sky is dark enough when you're up and about - the Orionids are at maximum at the moment, and the Taurids are pretty close too :)

Anyways, back to lurking :D
a week ago gem was predicting a gulf of mexico cyclone. if the model was a human it would be fired
Quoting 198. tropicofcancer:

Yesterday outside Port of Miami. More of the same on tap for today. (photo from Miami Herald)



Good morning ToC and all. Have you ever read about this boat?

Link

Now that was funny Nea.
Hurricane Olaf another Awesomely Powerful Hurricane/Typhoon in the Pacific Basin!! The hits just keep coming in the Pacific. It seems the last 4-5 years its non stop out there with Major Hurricane or Super Typhoon over and over again.
Quoting 191. tampabaymatt:




FINALLY!!!! Some rain!!!

Quoting 197. cajunkid:

Off topic, but what better place to ask...

What planet or star is shinning so brightly in the Southeastern sky right now? 6:10am CDT

Thanks in advance!


Good Morning....................Venus (as usual in the am rising just before the Sun).
Models are showing the beginnings of a explosive pattern across the SE & Eastern US. If we see this Euro verify we may have situation like what we did back last Halloween with snow deep in the South. These typhoons across the Pacific are causing mayhem in the models the last 24hrs.

Bottomline this is going to be one interesting week to see how this eventually evolves.



This would bring freezes deep into the southern US. Again could change next run as the models are trying to key in on a potentially explosive pattern evolving.

Could be severe weather followed by some pretty serious cold air coming south next week across the East.
The Atlantic clear, the Yucatan area went poof, and the E-Pac off of Central America about to spin up another storm:

Quoting 207. weathermanwannabe:



Good Morning....................Venus (as usual in the am rising just before the Sun).


Early winter mornings some have mistaken Venus for an airplane. It is just too bright.
Quoting 211. mbateman777:



Early winter mornings some have mistaken Venus for an airplane. It is just too bright.


Or a UFO............................................... ..
Very unusual to see this type of pattern evolve in October as this is usually a quite transition period.
The next E-Pac system almost there at TD:




This El-Nino is now crossing 2.5C for Nino 3.4.

El-Nino is expected to continue to amplify in the atmosphere as the AEI nears 5 Standard Deviations later this month. A record for any given year.

Quoting 200. Neapolitan:

With that global warming tweet, Trump proves once again that he's either a) trolling, b) dumb as a bag of hammers, or c) both. To any right-thinking person, any one of those would be an immediate disqualifier from the highest office in the land. Yet he leads the polls. (Go figure.)

Imagine a few years from now when an emergency global summit is called due to the growing catastrophic nature of climate change. Conversation moves around the room as each serious, sober-minded world leader from around the planet, accompanied by her/his nation's best scientific minds, tells how warming has affected them and how they plan to both deal with its effects and mitigate future warming. Then the dialog stops in front of the small tabletop sign that reads, "United States / President Donald Trump". All eyes and ears are turned towards the leader of the nation that continues to churn out the highest amount of CO2 per-capita. President Trump looks silently around the room, ensuring that he holds everyone's absolute attention before finally speaking in his harsh New York accent.

"Look at all these losers, are you kidding me? What global warming? On my limousine ride over here--and it's the biggest, best limousine ever, let me tell you--I saw frost on a window. No, it's true, it's true. I saw a bit of frost on a window, and I know it's frost, trust me, I grew up in New York, and I saw plenty of frost when I was a kid, I think it's the frostiest place on the planet. I saw that frost, and I thought, 'Are you kidding me? Why did I travel all the way here to listen to a bunch of losers complaining about (air quotes) "global warming" when there's freakin' frost on windows? 'I'm no scientist--I'm a businessman, let me tell you, and I'm rich, very, very rich because I'm the best at it, maybe the best that ever was or ever will be--but, you know, you don't see frost in the summertime, right? And you don't see it in summer because it's too warm. Right? So if the planet is warming like all you losers keep saying, why did I see frost this morning? Huh? Can anyone answer that? And I'll tell you what else. I'm supposed to go skiing next month. I ski a lot--I could have been an Olympic skier, because I am really great at it, so great, let me tell you--but should I cancel my ski trip? Because if there's (air quotes) "global warming", there won't be any snow, right? I guess no one will ski anymore, oh boo-hoo, kids, no ski trip this year because all the snow is gone forever. "

Finished, Pres. Trump leans back in his chair, arms folded triumphantly across his chest...

---

This could happen. (shudders)
best word pic ever...
As the atmosphere continues to amplify into a Strong/Super El-Nino state the CFSv2 is showing this for November.


Great illustration of the jet stream north and the typhoons south moving NW on a collision course with this jet. As this system merge with the Pacific jet we will see it amplify and slam into the US causing a very chaotic pattern this weekend into early next week.

Looks like the E-Pac system is modelled to curve back into Mexico with a possible remnant flow across the Northern Gulf Coast downstream (50/50 shot) if this forecast verifies:

Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:

Great illustration of the jet stream north and the typhoons south moving NW on a collision course with this jet. As this system merge with the Pacific jet we will see it amplify and slam into the US causing a very chaotic pattern this weekend into early next week.


And possibly more polar air being forced south. The eastern third getting the coldest.
Quoting 222. hydrus:

And possibly more polar air being forced south. The eastern third getting the coldest.


This is a very tricky forecast hydrus. Going to be interesting to see where these forces meet across the East. Many ensembles show a system in the Gulf or toward the Mid Atlantic. The mid Atlantic scenario would bring very cold air even deep into FL.
Quoting 189. barbamz:


Good morning. For all who are interested in the latest of this unnamed but persistent low with some subtropical characteristics southwest of the Iberian peninsula, here a loop of the last 12 hours.






Now the low seems much more organised than yesterday, the center is better defined, and the convetcion tries to wrap around it from W. There is also a nice band of thunderstorms S-SE of the center. (The left picture is from 9 UTC, and the right is from 12 UTC.)

Live satellite animation: Link

I wonder why isn't this at least an Invest, as similar systems in this region were in the previous years.



Quoting 219. StormTrackerScott:

As the atmosphere continues to amplify into a Strong/Super El-Nino state the CFSv2 is showing this for November.






vary dry for NOV wish is not good for a strong too super EL Nino
Quoting 225. Tazmanian:




vary dry for NOV wish is not good for a strong too super EL Nino


Yeah I don't know about it being that dry in Cali during November with a Super Nino in place. I suspect Central & Southern Cali will be wetter than what is being shown by the CFSv2
Quoting 141. no1der:

Prosecutor Who Took Down Big Tobacco Says The Feds Should Investigate Exxon's Climate Denial

A former U.S. Department of Justice attorney who prosecuted and won the massive racketeering case against Big Tobacco thinks the agency should consider investigating Big Oil for similar claims: engaging in a cover-up to mislead the public about the risks of its product.
Sharon Eubanks, who now works for the firm Bordas & Bordas, told ThinkProgress that ExxonMobil and other members of the fossil fuel industry could be held liable for violations of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) if it's discovered that the companies worked together to suppress knowledge about the reality of human-caused climate change. She said that, considering recent revelations regarding ExxonMobil, the DOJ should consider launching an investigation into big fossil fuel companies.
"I think a RICO action is plausible and should be considered," she said.
Quoting 208. StormTrackerScott:

Models are showing the beginnings of a explosive pattern across the SE & Eastern US. If we see this Euro verify we may have situation like what we did back last Halloween with snow deep in the South. These typhoons across the Pacific are causing mayhem in the models the last 24hrs.

Bottomline this is going to be one interesting week to see how this eventually evolves.



This would bring freezes deep into the southern US. Again could change next run as the models are trying to key in on a potentially explosive pattern evolving.





dran the E coast they cant have it
Good to see Koppu losing its mojo fast.

Driest month I can remember in quite some time in the Tampa Bay area. I’ve received only 0.59” for the month, and there is no rain in sight for the next 7 days.
Just a blast from the past. Dr Masters on a Hurricane Hunter mission through the eye of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWVMcLQioQs
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:



This is a very tricky forecast hydrus. Going to be interesting to see where these forces meet across the East. Many ensembles show a system in the Gulf or toward the Mid Atlantic. The mid Atlantic scenario would bring very cold air even deep into FL.
Severe weather expected this Thursday over the Middle Plains. Possible tropical development in the gulf late week. I would not write off the hurricane season just yet. The Caribbean and the Atlantic are still able to develop a strong hurricane. After that, a chaotic pattern should ensue, with more severe weather and cold snaps reaching far into the south.
Well well well, another October and looks like another potential flood event. The NWS stats it the same.

"AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH PAST OCTOBER STORMS...THE COMBINATION OF
THESE STRONGER SYSTEMS TAPPING INTO BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC PLUMES
OF MOISTURE CAN LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. ALL INTERESTS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR."

October 1998 has similarities and it wasn't long ago halloween 2013 that there was a foot of rain that fell in more isolated areas compared to 1998. This is the time of year that I get excited for drought busting rains. Looks like it will not disappoint
Quoting 208. StormTrackerScott:

Models are showing the beginnings of a explosive pattern across the SE & Eastern US. If we see this Euro verify we may have situation like what we did back last Halloween with snow deep in the South. These typhoons across the Pacific are causing mayhem in the models the last 24hrs.

Bottomline this is going to be one interesting week to see how this eventually evolves.



This would bring freezes deep into the southern US. Again could change next run as the models are trying to key in on a potentially explosive pattern evolving.


yes sir I agree, something we need to keep a eye on with this storm pattern and the cold air, makes me wounded. Your doing a great job with these post keep up the good work. I love when you especially put out the snow models for the southeast
Quoting 224. Zivipotty:

this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true" rel="nofollow">Link

I wonder why isn't this at least an Invest, as similar systems in this region were in the previous years.



It is frontal system, occlusion front (somewhat in front of the cloud band) from S Portugal to just inland Moroccan coast. Behind the occlusion to the west of the centre a T850 down to 5 C or even a bit less, which very cold indeed for that latitude (it would be even in February). Imo it doesn't even have subtropical characteristics and it really just an old cut-off cool ordinary mid-latitude low. As the CoC slips south during the remainder of the week it could of course gain (sub-)tropical chars.
(away dup after non-deciding battle with the blog software again..)


Gradually getting greener, but still way behind average...
Quoting 239. LouisPasteur:


Now you've gone and broke the blog.
Quoting 231. tampabaymatt:

Driest month I can remember in quite some time in the Tampa Bay area. I%u2019ve received only 0.59%u201D for the month, and there is no rain in sight for the next 7 days.


Rain should be here early next week. Models are showing a Gulf system slowly advancing in this direction. Not out of the question we end October near to above average rainfall wise.



PWAT's look to be around 2" too.

If successful, maybe this will shed some light as to what really happened with El Faro:
Link
Quoting 241. StormTrackerScott:



Rain should be here early next week. Models are showing a Gulf system slowly advancing in this direction. Not out of the question we end October near to above average rainfall wise.




whats that off CA coast
This guy in Doc's pic looks very happy to have his pig. More than likely a pig he found while trying to get to safety.

Quoting 243. Tazmanian:



whats that off CA coast


Moisture from Olaf
Quoting 214. weathermanwannabe:

The next E-Pac system almost there at TD:







Had 40 mph earlier this morning as an invest, i don't know why NHC put 35 mph.
Quoting 246. pablosyn:



Had 40 mph earlier this morning as an invest, i don't know why NHC put 35 mph.


here why

EP, 97, 2015102006, , BEST, 0, 133N, 940W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 110, 1010, 150, 90, 45, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 97, 2015102012, , BEST, 0, 134N, 943W, 30, 1006, LO
Quoting 206. 62901IL:




FINALLY!!!! Some rain!!!




Texas will go from drought and fires to heavy rainfall and flooding over the next 5 days
Quoting 249. Gearsts:


Almost off the charts.
Quoting 240. ChiThom:

At least he spelled all 5 words right.
Quoting 244. StormTrackerScott:

This guy in Doc's pic looks very happy to have his pig. More than likely a pig he found while trying to get to safety.





yep....or maybe he was trying to save his hog farm as one of the story states utilizing that same picture

Nearby, two men pushed pigs placed on top of truck tyre inner tubes in a valiant attempt to save their hog farm from 1.2-metre-high flooding.
Quoting 244. StormTrackerScott:

This guy in Doc's pic looks very happy to have his pig. More than likely a pig he found while trying to get to safety.



Ha! I thought the same thing. I doubt that is his pet "Twinkles". My guess it that it has been digested for some time...
Quoting 248. RitaEvac:



Texas will go from drought and fires to heavy rainfall and flooding over the next 5 days


Seems to always be the case with TX - they are the definition of feast or famine when it comes to rainfall.
Quoting 254. ricderr:




yep....or maybe he was trying to save his hog farm as one of the story states utilizing that same picture

Nearby, two men pushed pigs placed on top of truck tyre inner tubes in a valiant attempt to save their hog farm from 1.2-metre-high flooding.
Good morning Ric...The Philippines are a very poor country, and almost continuously suffers from natural disasters. The pig or pigs may sound petty to someone, but when it is your only source of income, they are a staple to there livelihood. They must be a hardy race to keep a smile through all the devastation.
Quoting 255. Sandcat:


Ha! I thought the same thing. I doubt that is his pet "Twinkles". My guess it that it has been digested for some time...

Some old cynics in here, lol. In the video below some seconds with the guy and the pic at 1:45. Neighbours look relaxed ...



Below the latest snapshot of our Iberian swirl: Not quite stacked yet :-)

Quoting 248. RitaEvac:



Texas will go from drought and fires to heavy rainfall and flooding over the next 5 days


WOOHOO for Texas!!!!!!
Quoting 260. 62901IL:



WOOHOO for Texas!!!!!!
Louisiana too.
Quoting 261. HurricaneAndre:

Louisiana too.

And what about Arkansas?
You guys ready for a new blog??


Quoting 263. Grothar:

You guys ready for a new blog??





Most of the tracks are in good agreement.
Quoting 263. Grothar:

You guys ready for a new blog??





Man where ever the exact track of that system goes, gonna get loads of rain. 12z gfs has backed off somewhat on rainfall. I don't want to believe it though.
Quoting 264. 62901IL:



Most of the tracks are in good agreement.


Yep!

Quoting 266. Grothar:



Yep!




Who among you thinks that this system will make it to Texas?

I do.


Atlantic clouds make their way over to the west coast of FL
Small hurricane.
Quoting 257. hydrus:

Good morning Ric...The Philippines are a very poor country, and almost continuously suffers from natural disasters. The pig or pigs may sound petty to someone, but when it is your only source of income, they are a staple to there livelihood. They must be a hardy race to keep a smile through all the devastation.



as compared to us they are....i've had the pleasure of visiting dagupan many years ago....great people...great food....and yes.....a hardy spirit....i have to wonder....would we here in america...be able to smile as easily under such adverse conditions
Quoting 267. 62901IL:



Who among you thinks that this system will make it to Texas?

I do.


If it keeps turning, it could hit Florida :):)
Models beginning to uncork the E-Pac express and send it NE across FL. Very wet times ahead for FL.

Quoting 271. Grothar:



If it keeps turning, it could hit Florida :):)


Models are showing a new low in the Gulf in response to this TD moving across Mexico.


This would be part of the Pacific system later this week

12Z GFS slams Olaf into Northern California as a intact system. Only in stronger El-Nino's do you see that.

Quoting 275. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GFS slams Olaf into Northern California as a intact system. Only in stronger El-Nino's do you see that.


Damm!! Major storm here on the GFS

12Z GFS is showing what the 12Z Euro showed yesterday and if this verifies there could be a substantial severe potential across FL.

A tropical storm Olaf hitting northern California?

Am I reading this right? This has to be a fluke.

Quoting 270. ricderr:




as compared to us they are....i've had the pleasure of visiting dagupan many years ago....great people...great food....and yes.....a hardy spirit....i have to wonder....would we here in america...be able to smile as easily under such adverse conditions
We have the abilities to help those in need after a disaster here in the U.S., more than many other countries. With the economy still weak, a natural disaster occurring in the U.S. would be very unwelcome by many.
Florid Florida Florida.That is all I read on the blog now.Is there anything else going on in other peoples part of the world?
Quoting 280. FunnelVortex:

A tropical storm Olaf hitting northern California?

Am I reading this right? This has to be a fluke.


It will likely be non tropical, but with the conditions the way they are, it will have plenty of moisture .
Quoting 259. barbamz:


Some old cynics in here, lol. In the video below some seconds with the guy and the pic at 1:45. Neighbours look relaxed ...



Below the latest snapshot of our Iberian swirl: Not quite stacked yet :-)




What Lybain swirl?
WOW! That is one nasty looking squall line on the GFS coming into western FL. Big storm here and it resembles the Super Storm of 1993.

3 weeks and only an inch of rain here in Fort Myers. I did not expect October to be so dry.
Quoting 283. hydrus:

It will likely be non tropical, but with the conditions the way they are, it will have plenty of moisture .


Maybe it could bring some much-needed rain.
Quoting 285. StormTrackerScott:

WOW! That is one nasty looking squall line on the GFS coming into western FL. Big storm here and it resembles the Super Storm of 1993.




Settle down now.... This is 222 hours, not 84...
Quoting 278. StormTrackerScott:

Damm!! Major storm here on the GFS


Right now, it has the system an inland runner at 1000 mb.

Quoting 285. StormTrackerScott:

WOW! That is one nasty looking squall line on the GFS coming into western FL. Big storm here and it resembles the Super Storm of 1993.




The 1993 storm happned in March.
Quoting 289. SouthCentralTx:



Settle down now.... This is 200+ hours, not 84...
Long way out, but the GFS does better with baroclinic systems than tropical...it could happen..
Quoting 291. FunnelVortex:



The 1993 storm happned in March.
Powerful November storms have occurred, but are very rare over the S.E. U.S., and typically happen during la Nina episodes, not Nino...The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 was one of the worst..Link
Olaf, still heading west.
Total chaos on the 12Z models as the Pacific is going haywire right now with Typhoons mixing in with the upper flow causing major shifts in the jet pattern and then you combine a 2.5C El-Nino presently. This could be some crazy weather coming in the 6 to 10 day period across the SE US extending up to the Mid Atlantic.
Quoting 282. washingtonian115:

Florid Florida Florida.That is all I read on the blog now.Is there anything else going on in other peoples part of the world?
A good rain event is expected for PR. :)
Quoting 292. hydrus:

Long way out, but the GFS does better with baroclinic systems than tropical...it could happen..


Euro had it yesterday and the CMC has it too. People on here likely aren't old enough to remember what happened in Late October 1997. This set up coming is favoring that analog to a T. Both years Super El-Nino's. Like I said yesterday we have gone now 10 weeks with Nino 3.4 over 2C. There is no way all this energy is going to stay bottled up anymore. The cork is about to come off and US is about to pay the price for what is happening in the Pacific.
Quoting 292. hydrus:

Long way out, but the GFS does better with baroclinic systems than tropical...it could happen..


I think almost every model handles baroclinic systems better.
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



Euro had it yesterday and the CMC has it too. People on here likely aren't old enough to remember what happened in Late October 1997. This set up coming is favoring that analog to a T. Both years Super El-Nino's. Like I said yesterday we have gone now 10 weeks with Nino 3.4 over 2C. There is no way all this energy is going to stay bottled up anymore. The cork is about to come off and US is about to pay the price for what is happening in the Pacific.
Take it easy scott.
Quoting 280. FunnelVortex:

A tropical storm Olaf hitting northern California?

Am I reading this right? This has to be a fluke.



The ECMWF doesn't show this at all, and it seems unlikely, unless Olaf synchs up with a strong front. We have a better shot at getting the remnants of Champi which are headed right into the westerlies.
Quoting 284. FunnelVortex:What Lybain swirl?

Beg your pardon? I meant Iberia.
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



Euro had it yesterday and the CMC has it too. People on here likely aren't old enough to remember what happened in Late October 1997. This set up coming is favoring that analog to a T. Both years Super El-Nino's. Like I said yesterday we have gone now 10 weeks with Nino 3.4 over 2C. There is no way all this energy is going to stay bottled up anymore. The cork is about to come off and US is about to pay the price for what is happening in the Pacific.


Come back when there are thunderstorm complexes are developing over the gulf that cause pressures to lower and a trough in the jet stream sitting over the SE U.S. bringing a cold airmass with it, and then we will talk. :-)
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



Euro had it yesterday and the CMC has it too. People on here likely aren't old enough to remember what happened in Late October 1997. This set up coming is favoring that analog to a T. Both years Super El-Nino's. Like I said yesterday we have gone now 10 weeks with Nino 3.4 over 2C. There is no way all this energy is going to stay bottled up anymore. The cork is about to come off and US is about to pay the price for what is happening in the Pacific.
It will be interesting, and hopefully not damaging or deadly. I do believe it will be a rough winter again for many folks. Severe weather will definitely be occurring throughout the autumn months. Suffice it to say, i was over 30 years old when the 97/98 event occurred and was living in South Florida during the outbreak. I still have the news papers from that date, I collect them..
Quoting 296. Gearsts:

A good rain event is expected for PR. :)
Heard that they were having dire water restrictions in some areas.I just hope it doesn't come down to the point of mudslides happening.
Quoting 298. FunnelVortex:



I think almost every model handles baroclinic systems better.
This is true...Much easier to pick up a baroclinic low then a figure out what will happen to an area of disturbed weather in the tropics.
Quoting 303. hydrus:

It will be interesting, and hopefully not damaging or deadly. I do believe it will be a rough winter again for many folks. Severe weather will definitely be occurring throughout the autumn months. Suffice it to say, i was over 30 years old when the 97/98 event occurred and was living in South Florida during the outbreak. I still have the news papers from that date, I collect them..


I remember our first big rain event being just before Halloween with nearly 3" in Orlando with also storms that were rotating. One touch down I believe happened in New Smyrna Beach. The first 3 quarters of October 1997 were very dry kinda like this year.
Quoting 298. FunnelVortex:



I think almost every model handles baroclinic systems better.


This is true for at least three reasons.

1. Baroclinic systems almost always have a length sale over 500km and are thus easier to resolve in our observing networks.

2. Baroclinic systems are always, by the definition of baroclinicity, associated with significant large scale temperature gradients which are also more easily resolved by our observations. Tropical cyclones sometimes originate from small almost indiscernable perturbations (Cape Verde storms originating from African waves are an excption.. BTW these African waves are baroclinic} Mathematically the genesis problem for non Cape Verde systems is more ill conditioned than the genesis problem for baroclinic waves.

3. Baroclinic systems tend to originate over the midlatitudes which have better observations than the tropics.
Quoting 307. georgevandenberghe:



This is true for at least three reasons.

1. Baroclinic systems almost always have a length sale over 500km and are thus easier to resolve in our observing networks.

2. Baroclinic systems are always, by the definition of baroclinicity, associated with significant large scale temperature gradients which are also more easily resolved by our observations. Tropical cyclones sometimes originate from small almost indiscernable perturbations (Cape Verde storms originating from African waves are an excption.. BTW these African waves are baroclinic} Mathematically the genesis problem for non Cape Verde systems is more ill conditioned than the genesis problem for baroclinic waves.

3. Baroclinic systems tend to originate over the midlatitudes which have better observations than the tropics.
Well put.
I too am wondering how all the moisture/heat coming from future Patricia will factor in

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue
Taking the over w/new TD 20E (to be Patricia) ... expecting major Cat 3 (plus) over some of warmest water on Earth.

Quoting 309. VibrantPlanet:

I too am wondering how all the moisture/heat coming from future Patricia will factor in

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue
Taking the over w/new TD 20E (to be Patricia) ... expecting major Cat 3+ over some of warmest water on Earth. pic.twitter.com/j81LDDkhvj


Yep...Kinda good its not crossing into the gulf over Tehuantepec .
Quoting 310. hydrus:

Yep...Kinda good its not crossing into the gulf over Tehuantepec .

I don't know. It looks like it could combine with the BOC system and make the weather pretty nasty for the mid to upper Texas coast by the end of the week.
I don't think this includes 97E.


Quoting 299. Gearsts:

Take it easy scott.
Yes Scott, calm down, nobody knows what's going to happen later this fall and into winter. Every year is different, this Nino is not like the Nino of 97, nor are the water temps in the Pacific or Atlantic. The heart of this Nino is suppose to develop further West and start weakening next month, so please chill for now and quite scaring everybody with your gloom and doom, after all it's not Halloween yet.
Quoting 313. NativeSun:

Yes Scott, calm down, nobody knows what's going to happen later this fall and into winter. Every year is different, this Nino is not like the Nino of 97, nor are the water temps in the Pacific or Atlantic. The heart of this Nino is suppose to develop further West and start weakening next month, so please chill for now and quite scaring everybody with your gloom and doom, after all it's not Halloween yet.


When did they say the El Ninio was going to start weakening?
Satellite animation of the Iberian system between 07-16 UTC (the convection become weaker now, but the low level center is better defined):

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 314. FunnelVortex:



When did they say the El Ninio was going to start weakening?
JB was showing the charts on his premium site, the Nino is suppose to peak the end of this month, and next. Will start heading to a La Nina by late summer, early fall 2016. Ask Scott, he follows JB very closely. As far as actual temps, and trends I would start following the NCEP charts as they are updated every 6 hrs. with real time temps.
Quoting 314. FunnelVortex:



When did they say the El Nino was going to start weakening?


From the EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, 8 October 2015:

"There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016."

El Nino does not typically peak until after the winter holidays, and there is no basis for predicting a La Nina will immediately follow.