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Killer tornadoes smash Iowa and Minnesota

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:09 AM GMT on May 26, 2008

An exceptional tornado outbreak continues to hammer the U.S. tonight, in what has been an extraordinary year for tornadoes. A mile-wide tornado plowed through Parkersburg, Iowa this afternoon, killing at least five people and injuring 15, according to KCRG. The tornado passed just north of the airport in Waterloo, Iowa, which recorded sustained winds of 64mph, gusting to 94 mph at 5:37pm CDT. Damage appeared to be at least EF-4 in photos I saw, and possibly EF-5 (over 200 mph). In Minnesota, another powerful twister killed at least one person and injured 9 in the Minneapolis suburb of Hugo this afternoon.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the supercell thunderstorms that spawned the Parkerburg, Iowa and Hugo, Minnesota tornadoes on May 25, 2008.

A slow-moving low pressure system that began in Colorado on Thursday spawned 48 reports of tornadoes Thursday, including the EF-3 mile-wide twister that killed one person in Windsor, Colorado. On Friday, an additional 63 tornado reports occurred, mostly in Kansas. The tornado that hit Quinter, Kansas on Friday was the eighth violent EF-4 tornado of the year. The last year that had more violent tornadoes was 1999, when 13 such twisters were recorded. Two people were killed in Cairo, Kansas when a tornado smashed a car trying to flee the storm. If you want to see why one should not try to escape a tornado in a car, take a look at what the tornado did to the car. Saturday was relatively quiet, with only 13 tornado reports, but Sunday's tally (so far) of 37 has brought the 4-day total to a remarkable 150+ tornado reports. Some of these tornado reports are undoubtedly of the same tornado, so the actual number of tornadoes for the 4-day outbreak may be less than 150.



Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Parkersburg, Iowa tornado. The position of Parkersburg is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex.



Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Hugo, Minnesota tornado. The position of Hugo is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex.

Severe weather forecast
Severe weather will pound the U.S. again Memorial Day, with the main action expected to stretch more than halfway across the country--from Colorado to New York. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed central Kansas under its "Moderate Risk" category for severe weather, one step below its highest level of concern, "High Risk". Yesterday was also a "Moderate Risk" day in Iowa and Minnesota. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

I'll have an update Monday morning, including a look at the tropics, where the computers models persist in predicting a tropical storm may form in the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific late this week.

Jeff Masters
Tornado
Tornado
A large and violent tornado near Quinter, Kansas. Photo Copyright Mike Theiss
Large Tornado near Quinter, Kansas
Large Tornado near Quinter, Kansas
Photo of a large tornado near Quinter, Kansas on May 23rd, 2008.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Jeff Masters.
Thanks Dr. appreciate the update.
still no response to the hook-echo question...how disappointing...
thanks doc
i beleive we should have a invest by thur 330 am may 29 if models are right in there depictions
by tue we should know more after 3 or 4 more runs
Thanks Dr M. Some tragic news.

Thing does not even look like a car.
five days to go
Well, good night everyone. Thanks for another great (but sad) update this late at night Dr. Masters.
DrM. Thanks for the update. What a horrible tragedy. Prayers go out to all the folks in all the counties that's been hit with all these tornadoe's.
Sheri
Thanks, Dr. Masters. Tragic news for sure.

Makes me miss Vort's severe blog - awareness, watches and warnings are disseminated quickly and fluidly the way he runs that blog. It'd be great if he had some help and support. I believe it'd be very helpful to anyone following severe weather on WU.
hey jfv how u doing tonite
Pearlandaggie, you have wu-mail (left side of your screen)

Thank you for the update, Dr. Masters. A sad day indeed.
Insane year! Thank You for the update Dr. Masters. Duly noted WCaribb, these seem to be the days of "Not What They Used To Be". Happy Memorial Day to you and yours.
Imagine what kind of horror footage awaits tomorrow.
well, i guess i'm out, too. have a great night everyone!
Wheres the 00z GFS crew lol?
"sheri" is catastropheadjuster's name. She always signs her name.
JFV That's my name Sheri
Have a good sleep, Pearland.
Phoenix Spacecraft Lands on Mars!
Sheri, Aqua!!! Ya'll stirring late!
Aquak- Hey, and thanks
Sheri
LOL Drak! You'll catch me on the 00Z when there is something to look at. Baby girl doesn't care about the 00Z and is up bright and early, lol.
Night All!
MLC you up to late. Can't sleep. Figure come to the main blog and see what's up.
JFV- No problem. I've always put my name but i guess i need to quit.
Sheri
28. TheCaneWhisperer 3:28 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
LOL Drak! You'll catch me on the 00Z when there is something to look at. Baby girl doesn't care about the 00Z and is up bright and early, lol.


LOL!
another fun fact i learned on the docs blog lol
I love it. Dr. Master's has taken the time to open a new blog on a holiday weekend, late on a Sunday.

He includes links, radar, MRV, sat pics, and sad coverage of yet another severe weather outbreak. Homes, businesses, lives DESTROYED...and yet all some of you bloggers here can do is just go about your merry obsession with the next tropical model run.

Without even a thank you, or a note of condolence, many of you just LOL your way thru this blog with out even a tip of the hat to Dr. Masters.

Dr. Masters deserves more respect than that. This is HIS blog.

'Nuff said.
Sheri, I'm always out in the moonlight, you know that! ;)
MLC:I put my blog as a Severe weather and warnings, but can't make it as good as Vort's. I was posting all the warnings and then went to the Awful Waffle {Waffle House} to eat supper. Came back and got on the main blog.
Sheri
Yes I know that. Your a night owl.
sheri
ya i think i just saw mlc rooting around in my fridge lol
LOL, haha! Little Debbie's "fair warning" and a cold glass of milk! Dangerous at this time of the evening! ; P

- Aqua, well said; but, tell us how you really feel! ; P
Aquak & MLC where did ya go? You up and disappear on me.
Sheri
mlc back off these are my little debbies lol
Sheri, you did good with the warnings - it's a heap of work! Thanks.
MLC I have a homemade Turtle Pie and a tall glass of cold milk.
Aquak you can have a piece to.
sheri
Oh, Sheri! Whoa! hhhhhhhmmmmmmm, that sure sounds good!
MLC Thank you. I thought i would try until Vort gets back 5days and counting.
Sheri
I said how I feel, MLC. I remember years ago, Dr. Master's would actually post in his own blog. We felt honored and enjoyed his interaction.

Now, it seems like many folks completely ignore the work he puts into his blogs.
Ok we i see we now have the GFS, NGPNGP GFS in agreement that a storm is coming out of the West Carribean into the GOM. I would start to think that something will be forming with 2 pretty good models in agreement.
aqua do you remember the other mets blog that was on here?
You know that song Oh Sherry by Steve Perry I think, I love it.Sorry folks i know this is DrM weather blog I guess we better get back talking about weather before we get in trouble.
sheri
hahaguy, yes I do. Starting my fourth year here.

I know Aqua, he does a lot of research, work on his blogs, and they're good! But, he's a busier man nowadays, too! On top of weather, he's got to cover global warming, run a growing company and still manage to have a life. It's tasking, just reading it, let alone running it and putting it out there for all of us.
i really enjoyed switching back from doc m's blog and his . too bad he left though
Aquak I always read DrM's Blog and enjoy it very much. I have learned alot from reading what he has to say. Very Very smart man in my opinion.
Sheri
well i guess we will have something to watch next week. I guess Im goin to run off to bed. You guys have a great evening.
Wow, 55 posts w/out a graphic! Everyone asleep? lol
Notice how sheer is dropping in the GOM
I see the NGP & GFS are alike on this wave coming over from the Epac. Aren't them 2 models reliable in everyones eyes?
Sheri
- haha, haha!

- TS, yep, saw that earlier, too. We wait, we see!
I'm still here....
notice the wind sheer off the yuctan, not much there either, things are taking shape for development once something gets going.
850mb vorticity pic looking interesting in that area also.
CNN reports 8 are now dead from today's twisters... Link
62. JFV 3:56 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Are the models out yet Drak? Cause I'm waiting to see them before hitting the hay shortly there after!


I don't know if I will stay up for the NOGAPS 00z but I do know that the GFS 00z run is coming out now.
JFV the run comes out in hours and frames:Link
NoGaps is set up to pull a Wilma.

GFS thinks panhandle of FL.

CMC is set up for a Wilma of whatever is left after the cross over MEX.


I have to go with climatology here and say the panhandle if we have something to look at. Highs are bullish in the SE this time of year.
With shear decreasing and water temps rising rather quickly, on top of the fact that many global models are predicting development, I'm goin' to go ahead and call this storm just for personal record. I do in fact believe we will be looking at Arthur (I'll stick with Tropical Storm Arthur at this point) in the GOMEX within the next 8 days.

lol these models have such a good audience.
Weatherfreak,
You stick your neck out to be the first to get hammered........LMAO
canewhisperer- how can you say where the models are predicting landfall? The nogaps and gfs run out of time while the storm is offshore of cozumel....
71. JFV 4:07 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Thanks Drak, I just bookmarked the website!!!


Thats only for the 00z run though.

You should bookmark:Link which gives you all the GFS runs.
Iam up for another 20 minutes or so...

Looks like the GFS out to 90hrs has the low about to cross over.
75. hurricane23 4:09 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Iam up for another 20 minutes or so...

Looks like the GFS out to 90hrs has the low about to cross over.


yea.
72. TampaSpin 12:07 AM EDT on May 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
Weatherfreak,
You stick your neck out to be the first to get hammered........LMAO


I mean come on guys! we have to take some risks....it's midnight- let's have some fun and place some bets. No one needs take me seriously. If I'm right then I'll say "told you so" and if I'm wrong you can discredit me the rest of the season lol
I don't want to get my head bit off but isn't it kinda to early for these waves to become anything? I mean it will probaly be a rain maker right. Nothing bad.
Sheri
78. JFV 4:12 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
I will sir, thank you! So, after all of this, are you still expecting development this week Drak? Based on the relentness of the models lately?


Friday is when we need to look out as the low emerges of the coast of Honduras. It will be over favorable TCHP and low vertical wind shear supported by an upper level high.
If I'm right then I'll say "told you so" and if I'm wrong you can discredit me the rest of the season lol

Freak i would never throw the first stone and secondly the season is very long........lol
Hey H23 long time no see.
Sheri
The low looks pretty strong too.
Here we are into the caribbean @ 115hrs...
79. catastropheadjuster 12:13 AM EDT on May 26, 2008
I don't want to get my head bit off but isn't it kinda to early for these waves to become anything? I mean it will probaly be a rain maker right. Nothing bad.
Sheri


The heat is on and the GOM is heating up very fast. In 7 days it will be much warmer. The air temp in tampa is 75deg. right now at Midnight. Not much cooling happening at night now.
The GFS also, once again, seems to be trying to develop a storm off of the African coast. Is that normal of the GFS this early in the season?
Hi Sheri,
Personally, anything can happen, I think it is important to actually have something on satellite to look at first, it is impressive for model runs to consistently show something for days, once we have a system then it will be easier to factor if it will grow how strong etc...until then it is all in the computer's mind lol.
114 has it exiting honduras north.
83. jphurricane2006 12:15 AM EDT on May 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
no thanks FLfreak

this isnt about taking risks and making bullish predictions, we can discuss, we can speculate but to predict is kind of foolish at this point


Ok guys, if we must stick to analysis then I'll be for real- Let's look at the facts:

1) SST's are warming up well in our target areas.
2) Wind shear has just randomly begun to drop throughout the Gulf and Carib,
3) The GFS has been calling this storm for AT LEAST 10 days now (mind you, different tracks but same concept)
4) Climatologically, we may see something along these lines.
5) We downcast each other and don't put much trust in even the most reliable models.

TS & SG03 thanks for the explanation. I hope this doesn't hint to us it's going to be a busy season. We still need a couple of years for folks to be able to get things back to normal if that can ever happen.
Sheri
The dynamics and progression of what is forecast in the specific models FLWG. Obvious approximation but, close.
Upper air graphics are showing a nice upper high setting up in the western Caribbean as well.
I only see a ghost and that is all and i really don't believe in ghost.......lol
Looking at Adrian's post, there's tons of high pressure all around! Doesn't look like it'll have much room to go anywhere assuming it cranks up. Where would it go with high pressure like that? TIA
FLFreak,
With all the models out there showing some type of development at some point, it almost makes you ask the question if nothing does develop do the models need to fixed?

I don't think anyone is downcasting but it is hard to say where a system is going when you don't even have an invest first.
144 has the low just off the coast of mexican yucatan / costa rican border.
Yeah sport, I know what you mean. But what is the point of humans creating a forecast model if we basically say to ourselves, "not likely, not gonna' happen" until it's really there. We made the models to forecast, they're forecasting and we choose not to believe them.

I know they're wrong a lot, but this particular storm has been forecast for many runs by many models- maybe our technology is right this time?
156hrs just of the tip of the yucatan.

1005/1006mb
Half of the circulation likes the Yucatan the other half does lol...
This is my guess, a trough runs though Jamacia in to the Yucatan. My guess is a low will seperate from this trough and head north.
Check out the Water Vapor.
But anyways, I'm off to bed.... I've been typing random letters that don't fit together very well... tired. Sleep well guys.
The NOGAPS 00z run is starting.
Night freak, im going fishing in the GOM tomor at 6am i need my sleep also....
Drak got a link for the NOGAPS?
All these model runs are entertainment until a low pressure system develops. It may not even cause it may stay over central america. We wont have a idea until weds 12 or thurs 0z runs.
Yes FL,
I'm not sure anyone is saying not likely going to happen, many of the bloggers here have given reasons why it might happen from the SSts to the Shear values, models are just part of the tools mets use to forecast.

In a way it like horse racing on paper a horse might have great attributes but you still must finish the race even if you have great odds and it is certain that horse will win. Nothing is certain until it happens and until a system develops all that you see in the models never happened.
NOGAPS

Please bookmark this. I'm tired of having to post the same thing over and over again.
wrong one.
This storm would probably go in the GOM; I think anywhere from the Central Gulf to Florida should monitor this [once the storm actually forms], and I think dry air is the only inhibitor right now for our future storm.

Climatology speaking and looking back at the past few years, the storm could hit the west coast of Florida (Alberto '06, Barry '07) or in the central gulf area (Arlene '05, Cindy '05). So, obviously the place where this mystery storm will land is very broad in the terms of narrowing down to an exact area of landfall. As far as strength goes, a tropical storm or minimal hurricane isn't out of the question but anything more than that would have to be in very favorable shear and SST's. And, I am not expecting that.
At 168hrs its at 1004mb just about to enter the gulf.

Anyways iam out hope everyone has a great memorial day tommorow. Adrian
Have a good sleep, Adrian.
The GFS is back to its old tricks with the system going west in the Gulf in the general direction of Mexico.
BOC and then west to Mexico, Drak?
116. moonlightcowboy 4:45 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
BOC and then west to Mexico, Drak?


North into the Gulf then west around Mexico/Texas.

It decided it wants its big high back.
Im out good nite all
Drak you got the first look out......lol
I'll be here to see what the NOGAPS 00z has to say and maybe what the UKMET 00z has to say.
Have a good sleep, TS.

- Drak, you think it's responding to all the high pressure north and east? Heck, if it gets out there, it could be a slow mover, a staller - time to gain some strength?
why is it old tricks? its all a guessing game.. besides..climataligy tells us anything west of 85W usually heads west due to early summer ridgeing over Tx-LA. Its very acceptable solution but its only speculation games on development and movement in the near term.
121. moonlightcowboy 4:50 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Have a good sleep, TS.

- Drak, you think it's responding to all the high pressure north and east? Heck, if it gets out there, it could be a slow mover, a staller - time to gain some strength?


It responding to a 1035mb high out in the Atlantic with a ridge extending into the Gulf. Normally storms aren't able to make it that far west into the Gulf with the amount troughs over the CONUS but seeing as how the Jet stream will be far enough north low pressure systems track along that jet stream and a ridge builds in south of the jet.
hey drakeon, will you be a special guest on my blog tomorrow?
Whatever is there is being steered by the ridge building over TX-LA
Ok, well, am I missing something here, or could that mean Galveston, Houston - a TX landfall would be quite possible?
Early Climatology does not feature a straight western path through the gulf but a lifted path from the south from the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf.
Thanks Drak. On a newer laptop. I need to send over my bookmarks from my desktop at home.
For Guesscasting... here is the situation..if it stays more over or east of 85W and feels the trough over the Ohio Valley ..it will get pulled up the eastern gulf...but if it gets close to the Yucitan...it will miss the weakness between the ridges and start to feel the developing ridge over Tx-La early next week and get steered west. Anyways guesscasting on something that hasn't developed is far short of meteorology!
hey everyone, i am about to head out. But go check out my tropical weather site.
124. juniormeteorologist 4:55 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
hey drakeon, will you be a special guest on my blog tomorrow?


I will have to think about that.
Thanks, scottsvb! Makes sense. We wait, we see!
132. scottsvb 5:02 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Drakeon do you have a degree in meteorology? Where from? What was your professors name?


Why are you asking?
Okay, well i thought since you were intelligent i was going to let you be the first guest blogger, and too everyone, i will let you have a chance to be my guest blogger also!
136. JFV 5:05 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
I'm still here as well Drak! So what's up buddy?


Nothing. I'm waiting for the 00Z NOGAPS to complete its run.
cause alot are asking your opinion and I'm just wondering what credentials are. If your not a Met..its ok...
He's baiting you Drak...flag and walk away bro, LOL. Anyway, my thoughts on this system is that we'll need to watch carefully for it to just fizzle over Central America. The models seem to be jumping back and forth between it hugging the EPAC coast or the Carribean coast. Split the difference and it never gets over open water. Something to consider.
139. weatherboykris 5:07 AM GMT on May 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
He's baiting you Drak...flag and walk away bro, LOL. Anyway, my thoughts on this system is that we'll need to watch carefully for it to just fizzle over Central America. The models seem to be jumping back and forth between it hugging the EPAC coast or the Carribean coast. Split the difference and it never gets over open water. Something to consider.


I know exactly what he is doing. Thats why I asked why he is asking me? It pretty obvious, no? :)
Drak's a pretty smart blogger scott. Generally, you can trust what he, SJ, TCW, MichaelSTL, Hurricane23, and several others have to say. Plus myself of course, LOL.
Ok if your not a Met then its all good... Its ok and no Im not baiting him. Eighter he is or isnt and people are just asking his opinion cause hes on here alot watching things and learning models and stuff. Its all good.
Go NOGAPS Go!!!!
138. scottsvb 5:07 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
cause alot are asking your opinion and I'm just wondering what credentials are. If your not a Met..its ok...


Lets put it this way. I don't question who you are and you don't question who I am.
New NOGAPS is looking pretty similar to the old one through 96 hours...
Ok then scott. Wasn't trying to start anything. This time of year we get some real trolls and it's hard to tell genuine questions from new guys apart from bait questions just meant to cause trouble. No worries.
144. scottsvb 5:10 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Ok if your not a Met then its all good... Its ok and no Im not baiting him. Eighter he is or isnt and people are just asking his opinion cause hes on here alot watching things and learning models and stuff. Its all good.


I don't need to learn how to read models. I already know how to do so. I'm on here alot because this is the only weather community that I share my thoughts on.
148. scottsvb 5:11 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Trust isnt a good word. The public shoudlnt trust anyone that isnt a Meteorologist.


Well then don't.

weatherboykris, r u talking to me?
Welcome to my ignore list scott. From this point on, I will not be able to see what you are saying.
153. juniormeteorologist 5:13 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
weatherboykris, r u talking to me?


No, did you say something to me?

NOGAPS is out through 108 hours. Looks pretty interesting.
I need to stop before I get myself banned for the 2nd time. And if I may say: sullivanweather, is an excellent forecaster that puts alot of detail into his northeast blog and has gained enough respect to be a feature weather blogger on here, and his is not a degreed meteorologist.
I have a degree in Meteorology..worked NWS in ruskin fl (tampa) awhile back. Graduated in 93 Meteorology degree in Atmospheric Science from FSU.

Its all good on what people ask on these sites.
no, i didn't just got a little confused. Is the NOGAPPS and the GFS Models run at 0z out yet?
I have a new edition to my ignore list as well.
The 00z GFS is out, the NOGAPS is coming out now.
Wow I step into the blog and yet another fight is going on.....needless to say things are not going that well and I suggest you all should just stop being so nosy and defensive. (IN GENERAL).
Not referring to anyone in particular but you guys have to sop taking things so seriously on here. For Hevans sakes its a public weather blog!! So just everyone lighten up and have some tolerance.
What a terrible severe weather season it's been! I wonder too if we'll see a Tropical Storm here. Florida could use more of rain, and that's a great way to get it!
Photobucket

...good grief, it's a "freakin'" blog - that's all! If "anyone" totally takes this, or "weather" itself to be so exact and so serious, then some are mis-jointed in the brain. It's a blog - plain, simple. There will be no pop quiz! People with no knowledge get can stuff right. Folks with the all the smarts can get stuff wrong - it's weather, it's a blog - get over yourselves! It's a B L O G!
Hey scottsvb drakone is pretty good when it comes down to what he thinks is going on by the way I am meteorologist
Lighten up folks. None of us here really give a damn who is or isn't a met. Its a blog, not the NWS.
All I asked was if he was a Met and where he graduated from and if hes not its all good!
Then let it be Scott.

120 hr NOGAPS seems to be taking this thing across Cuba.
LOL MLC, you know you are the best right?
goo buckeyes!!
Look out the CMC is back.....lol
K then well that was....uhhh unnecessary.
LOL, Drakoen - I think I ask the "best" questions! One never knows it all, and I learn ALL THE TIME!
176. moonlightcowboy 5:33 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
LOL, Drakoen - I think I ask the "best" questions! One's never knows it all, and I learn ALL THE TIME!


lol.
The CMC also takes that turn west late in the period!
Oh God Tampa not again....

Two models in agreement so far.
Storm I said 15/7/4 so our prediction looks pretty close!
180. Michfan 5:38 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Two models in agreement so far.


I don't think so. That CMC has the low pressure system over the CONUS further west than the GFS and a stronger extended ridge out in the Atlantic.
Yeah we have to wait and see how the season plays out....patience is key.
I meant up to the 144 mark. After that they do diverge. I need to be more clear next time.
Scotts did you get my message?
I'm seeing a possibility of alot higher cat 3s than what I forcasted and what the NHC forcasted but Ill keep it at 4.
184. Michfan 5:41 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
I meant up to the 144 mark. After that they do diverge. I need to be more clear next time.


That too is off. The GFS has the system around Belize and the CMC has the system a the tip of the Yucatan.
Anyways i'm logging of. See you guys later.
Same here Drak. 00z NOGAPS seems to be running slow.
I replied back storm!
Have a good sleep JFV, Drak, ALL! I'm out, too!
Well that far out i don't think its that much of a difference. The general direction up till then is well with reason for both of them.
Im out too. Baby is asleep so i must take advantage of it.
Peeks his head in the room and whispers..
Can't we all get along!

...walks slowly out of the room and grabs a ice cold Singha beer!
Yeah Im gone too good night Drak,JFV,Scott,Mich,MLC,lopaka,and Kris!! See yall tomorrow!!
gn
Opps sorry for slow reply Storm I was getting a beer..
Nite to you too!
;=)
200. kingy
someone is gonna get banned.....
201. 7544
hi everyone from what im seeing the gfs has this thing crossing the state of fla from west to east is that right
Its hidding nord to the yucatan.
I want to see first if it will develop and how fast.I do not now where this one goes fromthat point.
Wait and see.
Good Morning All
Good Morning!
MLB,FL forecasters are now having to take the run-to-run consistency in the models seriously, enough so to mention the model forecast TC in this morning's AFD:

FXUS62 KMLB 260818
AFDMLB
410 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2008
[...]
FRI-MON...AM GENERALLY LOATH TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL T.C. DEVELOPMENT DURING THE `PRE-SEASON`...PARTICULARLY IN THE XTD RANGE. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLBL MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK...AND CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THIS FEATURE...WHOSE POTENTIAL GENESIS HAS NOW COME INTO THE DAY 3-5 RANGE. ALSO...POTENTIAL LOW PRES FORMATION TO OUR SW COULD AT THE VERY LEAST HAVESIGNIF IMPACT ON POP FCST (GIVEN THE ONGOING DEARTH OF MAY RAINFALL). HENCE...IT BEHOOVES ME TO GIVE THIS FEATURE SOME MENTION.

BY FRI 12Z...ALL GLBL MODELS SHOW A GENERAL BROAD LOWERING OF SLP ON BOTH THE EPAC AND CARIB SIDE OF CTRL AMERICA. THEN THRU SUN/MON ...THE GFS/NGP/GGEM CONTINUE THEIR TREND IN AGGRESSIVE SPINUP OF A T.C...EVENTUALLY BRINGING A SYSTEM NWD TO NEAR/NORTH OF THE YUCATAN WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP LYR MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH FL. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM ARE THE UKM/ECM...WHICH ARE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWARD...AND AS A RESULT NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH NWD MOISTURE RETURN. SHOULD BE OF SOME INTEREST TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES...IF AT ALL.
[...]
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
======================

We need to hot-wire the rainy season around here, soil moisture is very low in most areas, and vegetation is desiccated, approaching extreme drought is some scattered areas. Evapotranspiration most likely accounts for over 50% of our summer rains on average, so hopes are high for some deep tropical moisture and even a weak but wet TC to come our way this week.
205. IKE
The 6Z GFS is running...out through 60 hours....
206. IKE
The 0Z CMC puts a storm off of the NE Yucatan in 144 hours.....

Link
207. IKE
The 0Z NOGAPS has it further east...south of western Cuba in 144 hours...

Link
208. IKE
The 0Z UKMET keeps it on the east PAC side...

Link
209. IKE
The 0Z ECMWF doesn't show much....

Link
We will just have to wait.
All we now is that it will(maybe) become TD around the time it will be near the yutacan.
Thanks Ike. The NGP is interesting, it shows a TC-like feature at the base of some Western Atlantic trough/weakness at 120 hours, but it hints that a high bridges the trough and builds back towards the Mid-Atlantic states as another sharp Central CONUS trough deepens around 132 hours.

Laughably far out in the forecast cycle...but I will be lurking, and hoping for rain.
Maybe the "sleeping giant" is waking up. 10/2007 94L



Whatever happened to that? Oh, yeah, Poof.
30% RISK of damaging winds here today
The CMC agrees with My predition LINK!!!!
That the EPAC storm will cross into the CAR.
215. IKE
The 6Z GFS aims the ghost/pre-blob at the west side of Florida...the 0Z run had it going toward Texas...a general north...or NE path seems more reasonable given it will be June.

6Z GFS through 254 hours....

Link
T-Storm continue to fire up in the South CAR. and in the EPAC.
IKE...your insight is invaluable....Thanks...but....When do you sleep?!?!?!
218. IKE
217. presslord 6:05 AM CDT on May 26, 2008
IKE...your insight is invaluable....Thanks...but....When do you sleep?!?!?!


I was asleep by 8:30 last night..central time...
GM All,

I am updating my blog but this is what I expect:

Watching an area of showers and thunderstorms just off the west coast of Central America that appears to be assoicated with a broad area of low pressure. This area is being developed by most models to either advect into the Southern Caribbean Sea or Northwest Caribbean Sea. Because of the model conensus and the lastest infrared imagery, this situation seems likely over the next few days. Due to the lack of surface observations and QuikSCAT/ASCAT sea winds, its difficult to pin point where the center of this broad area of low pressure is. However, utilising other tools like the GFS Analysis and satellite derived winds at the CIMSS it appears the area is just south of Guatemala and west of Coast Rico/Nicaragua. According to the NOGAPS, this area of low pressure will stretch across Central America, developing just off the coast of Nicargua and move northward into the NW Caribbean. What ever happens the bottom line is:

Most models are in concensus that the intial distrurbance will form in the EPAC (This is highly likely based on the observastions presented above), whether it develops into a TD or name storm there or where will it advect is yet to be seen.

Most models are also in conensus that some sort of advection will occur into the caribbean sea and at some point a storm is expected to be in the NW Caribbean Sea.
maybe I'm the one with the insomnia problem...Is it odd for the models to be in such seeming agreement on something this early and this...well...ephemeral? Does it say anything in terms of what to expect this year? Or is this entirely a zero sum game?
221. IKE
220. presslord 6:12 AM CDT on May 26, 2008
maybe I'm the one with the insomnia problem...Is it odd for the models to be in such seeming agreement on something this early and this...well...ephemeral? Does it say anything in terms of what to expect this year? Or is this entirely a zero sum game?


It's almost June...tropical season is here. Problem is...if it does develop and get in the GOM...what does that do to gas prices? I doubt it's some major system...more or less a rainmaker for someone.......fun to track though!
I don't even wanna talk about gas prices...drove from Charleston to Atlanta and back last week...killed me...
Both TV stations in Baton Rouge are mentioning something could possibly develope and move toward Fla. I think it will be cat5 and go up mouth of the Mississippi JJ trying to live up to namesake
224. IKE
My job is in sales...where I have to drive...it's killing me.......
Also, tracking possible storm development by thursday and lots of rain for CAMerica.
226. IKE
Yeah...lol...where is STORMTOP? He should be dusting out his basement and making his cat 4 for NO prediction.
BTW...please let the record show clearly: I am, in no shape, form or fashion, addressing the question of WHY gas prices are high...nor am I attempting to bait anyone into any sort of discussion about who or what is to blame...

I'm simply observing that gas has gotten expensive...

228. IKE
I hear ya...I'm tired of talking about it too...this is a tropical weather blog....
it seems to me that, in addition to their cooling effect, Gulf tunnels would also provide a safe place of refuge when storms develop....
Baton Rouge TV stations are reporting the models and the possible development of a depression
I'm very disappointed that no one took my stormtop bait...also, it seems premature for the weather media to start cranking out their hysteria...but Charleston is notorious for that...
Morning everyone. The predicted storm's formation is now well into the short range, with genesis predicted to occur between Wednesday and Friday. Model analysis...

The 06z GFS predicts the low pressure area currently in the Pacific to move eastward and interact with a tropical wave. The GFS forms a low along the wave axis, then puts the system ashore in Nicaragua, only to emerge off of Honduras and seriously begin to develop as it moves northward. Ultimately, it has "Arthur" impacting the west coast of Florida, but (as I've said countless times by now) let's pay attention to the short range development rather than the long range track. The GFS has the Caribbean low swallowing the EPAC low across Panama as it develops.

Another possible scenario is that the EPAC low ends up winning out over the Caribbean low, but then makes landfall and crosses into the Atlantic. The 00z CMC supports this, and the 06z NAM also seems to want to. Also I noticed that the CMC has a 965 millibar hurricane over the Bahamas at the 10 day mark. Central America topographical map.

The 00z ECMWF has taken the extremely conservative point of view on this possible situation, and shows nothing, not even an EPAC storm; only a very weak low in the Western Caribbean that fails to close off past 240 hours. The ECMWF appears to be over suppressing this system.

The 00z NOGAPS has a system near Cuba after developing in the SW Caribbean.

The 00z UKMET is the only model not showing an Atlantic storm through 144 hours. It develops the EPAC low and has it heading due northwest, paralleling the Central American coastline.
233. IKE
Gulf water temps have reached 80+ in the eastern GOM...

Panama City, FL 80.1 °F
Apalachicola, FL 80.1 °F
Grand Isle, LA 82.9 °F


Development potential...highest since the season started

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif
235. IKE
Well into the 80's in the western GOM....

Port Isabel, TX 84.0 °F
Corpus Christi, TX 82.9 °F
Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX 84.0 °F
Galveston Pier 21, TX 82.9 °F
Sabine Pass North, TX 84.9 °F
Rockport, TX 84.9 °F
Grand Isle, LA 82.9 °F
236. IKE
It's unusual for a system that far south to go north...
237. IKE
Managua, NK (Airport)
Updated: 46 min 28 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
72 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 70 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Visibility: 5.6 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 164 ft...........


Nicaragua.
239. IKE
From the east PAC tropical weather discussion from this morning........

"UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...OR S OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONES AND E OF 122W DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE RESULTING FROM THE POSITIONS
OF THE ANTICYCLONES RELATIVE TO ONE ANOTHER. THIS MOISTURE IS
PRIMARILY TIED TO CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT THE
NRN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE IS WORKING ITSELF NWD IN BETWEEN THE
ANTICYCLONES WITH TIME. RECENT AND CURRENT PRES ANALYSES REVEAL
THAT THIS MOISTURE IS RELATED TO AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES
WHICH COVERS THE FAR ERN PACIFIC FROM 03N-14N BETWEEN 84W-100W.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE
TO FORM A SPECIFIC LOW CENTER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN
EVENTUAL TRACK TO THE NE AND N.
FOR THE TIME BEING...BOTH
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH DIRECTION FROM SW TO NW WITHIN THIS
AREA. WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
RESPECT TO POSSIBLE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN
THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN."
Good Morning All!
Link Here's satellite looping of the west Pacific if NE1 wants to see the TC developing by the Philippine's they should name it soon
Nearly every WFO along the Gulf Coast now mentions this possible development in their discussion. Some of the more interesting ones...

Brownsville, TX Discussion

THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION IN THE WESTERN
CARIB REMAINS INTERESTING LATER THIS WEEK CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL FEATURE HERE AFTER THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE WESTERN CARIB IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
COMPARISON TO THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE STATIONARY AND
BROAD SURFACE LOW SPRAWLING FROM THE WESTERN CARIB ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH STRONG
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIB WITH THE LOW
MEANDERING UP THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
AROUND NEXT MONDAY. THE LATEST HPC MANUAL PROG CHARTS ARE PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH NEAR
THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN AROUND 12Z NEXT SUN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM NHC/HPC CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL FEATURE.

Corpus Christi, TX Discussion

THE GFS SHOWS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS THEN SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THOUGH THE ECMWF IS NOT SHOWING A FEATURE LIKE THIS, THE
GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FEATURE ENTERING THE GULF FOR AT LEAST
3 MODEL RUNS AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

New Orleans, LA Discussion

REGARDING THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOPMENT OF A `TROPICAL-LIKE`
CIRCULATION FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ...THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN A 997 TO 999 MB CLOSED ISOBAR SURFACE LOW ON SOME RUNS AND
HAVE SHOWN OPEN WAVE TROUGH ON OTHER RUNS. THE GFS TRIES TO DEEPEN
THE SYSTEM WHILE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS IF NO LAND
EXISTED. THIS LOOKS HIGHLY SUSPECT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
ANTICIPATED STRONG RIDGING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
STATES...ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT HAVE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
AREA. THIS IS...OF COURSE AT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
HORIZON.

Melbourne, FL Discussion

BY FRI 12Z...ALL GLBL MODELS SHOW A GENERAL BROAD LOWERING OF SLP
ON BOTH THE EPAC AND CARIB SIDE OF CTRL AMERICA. THEN THRU SUN/MON
...THE GFS/NGP/GGEM CONTINUE THEIR TREND IN AGGRESSIVE SPINUP OF A
T.C...EVENTUALLY BRINGING A SYSTEM NWD TO NEAR/NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP LYR MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH FL. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTURM ARE THE UKM/ECM...WHICH
ARE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWARD...AND AS A RESULT
NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH NWD MOISTURE RETURN. SHOULD BE OF
SOME INTEREST TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES...IF AT ALL.
Jeff, just want to thank you for putting this together so fast. Great job!
Only thing I want to add is that we had two tornadoes in Minnesota on Sunday. One in Anoka County at Coon Rapids and the one in Ramsey County at Hugo that you mentioned. Only one person was killed, a 2 year old child in Hugo. Thank God for small miracles. It could have been a lot worse. Also I did a count of the tornadoes since Tue last night and came up with 167 so far. My under standing that this storm began either on Tue or Wed last week so I counted from Tue. I am over whelmed by the numbers of the tornadoes we are seeing this year and am wondering what it all means. Is this part of the increasing Global Warming? Is it part of El-Nino? What is going on and what is causing this dramatic increase of severe and violent weather we are seeing this year?
Charles posted a graph last night showing the total tornados for the year over 900. It appears to me that if we continue on this trend, that we could be seeing from 1400 to 1500 tornados by the end of the year. Is that even reasonable or possible?
Link This is the blob of storms entering the east Pacific I don't see a circulation but maybe one will develop.
MN yes it is the average is about 1200 so a 20% increase in tornado activity would give us 1500 doesn't seem unreasonable to me

In 2004, 1,555 tornadoes formed in USA so it has happened before
246. IKE
The number of deaths this year from tornadoes seems higher and more frequent.
I would confidence is upgraded to moderate.
248. IKE
06Z NOGAPS places a system just off of the western tip of Cuba......

Link
IKE the deaths and twisters this year are well above average, I think the average # of deaths from tornadoes is around 50, I think we already surpassed that.
250. IKE
249. all4hurricanes 7:46 AM CDT on May 26, 2008
IKE the deaths and twisters this year are well above average, I think the average # of deaths from tornadoes is around 50, I think we already surpassed that.


That's an advantage to living where I do...panhandle of Florida...usually don't see killer tornadoes here...usually...
We don't see anything in Virginia we've only been in a tornado watch once that I can remember. and I've only seen golf ball sized hail here once. VA is a place void in natural disasters (not completely of course )
Morning All.

Looks like the models are coming into better agreement, as the time grows near, of a tropical system around the Yucatan late this week. MJO pulse is very, very slowly propagating eastward as seen by the moisture increase the Extreme Western Caribbean. We should start to see some action in the next day or two.
Wind shear just sort of took over the Caribbean so development seems unlikely at the moment but the dry air in the Caribbean is moving out
255. IKE
Here ya go JFV....

Link
Good morning everyone.
257. IKE
good morning........
Morning Drak.
I just looked at GFS 06z and the NOGAPS 00z run and those runs seem to take the system into Florida. The GFS in Central Florida and the NOGAPS in South Florida. Both models have very impressive systems. Ultimately the track will be be based on the timing and strength of the shortwave and the position and strength of the A/B high.
But since this system will be sheared away to the East it would be far more beneficial for the rain deficit if it hit further north in the state.
Good Morning everyone. To those who served in our military, Thank you; i owe you a debt i could never repay.

Drak whats up. we could use the rain here in pinellas county so i say let the rains come.

I think 40 is enough to rip apart any hurricane
You can't use that current shear map. The models show an upper level anticyclone building over the system as it moves through the western Caribbean.
Also the convective mass in the epac has been drifting eastward for some time now which is an indicator of the movement of the mjo.
267. IKE
It's not in the Caribbean now...more favorable shear where it's at...eastern PAC....
sorry I couldn't find a predicted shear map or those weakening shear/ strengthening shear maps. If the shear weakens all the dry air goes away and a big blob comes in I wouldn't deny it's formation
but what are the chances of that happening by later this week?
I know we don't like AccuWeather here for the most part, but just for kicks check out their forecast for June 3-5 for North Tampa.
271. IKE
Here's their 6-10 day for Miami.......

Link
272. JFV 9:36 AM EDT on May 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
well hint hint, i wonder why they're forcasting so much wind for us down here in miami for next week! gang, any ideas LOL!


They're long-term forecasts are based entirely on the GFS model- I guarantee you. They watch one computer model and the right the forecast, so when the models change again, say bye bye to the wind forecast lol
Hmm...that 6-10 day accuweather forecast for Miami looks kinda ominous lol...

For anyone who needs a link to all the models in one place here you go:

Link
FLWFreak do they really just change their forecast based on what a single model says?

When the next few models come out let's see if accuweather changes anything drastically ok?
oh god don't say accuweather lol
276. MasterForecaster 9:45 AM EDT on May 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
FLWFreak do they really just change their forecast based on what a single model says?

When the next few models come out let's see if accuweather changes anything drastically ok?


I have been checking their forecasts every day and yes, it does change rather drastically. Yesterday, for example, the forecast read "very hot" for the 3rd and 4th, and windy on the 5th. Today it says windy all three days. I think this has something to do with the fact that the GFS now brings the system much closer than it was doing yesterday.
I didn't realize it but the CMC thinks it will get picked up by the trough and head towards south Florida as a major hurricane lol!
Drakoen I commend you on the way you handled the situation with Scottsvb... seems like theres always someone on here trying to start trouble.

Is there a rotation near 48L , 8L, moving wnw? Is that a UTT? Just asking.....
285. IKE
I don't understand why ScottsVB is so bitchy when he comes in here......he was like that last year...he's trying to incite folks....
I was surprised as well Drak. There's a rather strong consensus building up here. Much better than the past week anyway.
288. IKE
The ECMWF hasn't trended toward development...yet. Somebodies right and somebody is wrong with these models(GFS,CMC,NOGAPS vs. ECMWF, UKMET...east PAC development).
289. IKE
NEW BLOG!
In the latest runs, we now have three models (GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC) all forecast a significant tropical cyclone hitting South Florida by the first week in June. Even though the track could always change, this is the highest model consensus we have had to date with this potential system. For the first time, I will place in my Tropical Weather Discussion that there will be a Western Caribbean storm by week's end when I update it later today.
Is anyone else confused about how the models expect a developing tropical storm to cross about 400 miles of the mountainous countries of Honduras and Nicaragua? Most of the models show it crossing this and emerging in the West Carib almost unharmed. Don't storms usually struggle to make it over much smaller landmasses like Cuba or Hispanola? I guess if it keeps on the eastern flatter side of Nicaragua it could be fine...
From what I can understand Cane, it will be a broad area of low pressure that spans the EPAC and over into the Western Caribbean. In which a center can relocate anywhere within the area. Similar to what happened last year. I can't remember the storm name but it hopped over Florida.
Sorry to hear about the terrible storms you're having - I've been intermittently lurking for some weeks now.

We are also sharing your fuel price squeeze in the UK. Here, one UK gallon costs £5.67, or $11.22. In terms of US gallons that is £4.71, or $9.32!!! What do you pay?

Take care of yourselves.
What are the chances something will form before hurricane season begins?
My attitude was a question if he was a Met and a bunch of you little teenage kids wanted to ensight something over it.

He handled it like a WUSS.. Got scared and ran off holding hands with you guys who follow him.

That is why us Mets dont use these blog boards. Oh and btw I had 7 people who wrote me last night into this morning telling me I was right to ask and also said some mean stuff about him (which I have nothing personal against).
I suggest reading over the document, "Owning the weather in 2025."
First air survey video of damage in Iowa from the large wedge tornado(es) yesterday:
http://www.kcci.com/video/16395381/index.html

The pilot stated that he followed the damage for 43 miles.