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Killer tornadoes rip Iowa, and Minnesota; tropical depression possible late this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on May 26, 2008

The 2008 Memorial Day Weekend tornado outbreak will continue to hammer the U.S. today, even as residents from Iowa and Minnesota clean up from the devastating tornadoes that killed eight people Sunday afternoon. A mile-wide tornado plowed through Parkersburg, Iowa between 5pm and 6pm CDT yesterday, killing five people in that city, and two in nearby New Hartford. It was the deadliest tornado in Iowa in more than 40 years. The tornado passed just north of the airport in Waterloo, Iowa, which recorded sustained winds of 64mph, gusting to 94 mph at 5:37pm CDT. Damage appeared to be at least EF-4 in photos I saw, and possibly EF-5 (over 200 mph). In Minnesota, another powerful twister killed at least one person and injured 9 in the Minneapolis suburb of Hugo.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the supercell thunderstorms that spawned the Parkerburg, Iowa and Hugo, Minnesota tornadoes on May 25, 2008.

The slow-moving low pressure system responsible for all the mayhem began in Colorado on Thursday, when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) recorded 48 reports of tornadoes, including the EF-3 mile-wide twister that killed one person in Windsor, Colorado. On Friday, an additional 63 tornado reports occurred, mostly in Kansas. The tornado that hit Quinter, Kansas on Friday was the eighth violent EF-4 tornado of the year. Also on Friday, two people were killed in Cairo, Kansas when a tornado smashed a car trying to flee the storm. If you want to see why one should not try to escape a tornado in a car, take a look at what the tornado did to the car. Saturday was relatively quiet, with only 13 tornado reports, but Sunday's tally of 43 brought the 4-day total from the 2008 Memorial Day weekend outbreak to a remarkable 157 tornado reports. Some of these tornado reports are undoubtedly of the same tornado, so the actual number of tornadoes for the 4-day outbreak may be less than 150. BBC has some awesome aerial footage of the weekend tornadoes.



Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Parkersburg, Iowa tornado. The position of Parkersburg is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex.



Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Hugo, Minnesota tornado. The position of Hugo is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex. We've also saved a 12-frame radar animation of the Hugo cell, thanks to wunderground member Todd S.

Tallying up the numbers
The death toll from Sunday pushes this year's tornado deaths to 111, the most since 1998, when 130 were recorded. Assuming that the Parkersburg, Iowa tornado was an EF-4 or EF-5, there have been nine violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes this year. This is the most since 1999, when 13 such twisters were recorded. The total number of tornadoes this year is approaching 1100, and we may challenge the all time record for tornadoes in a year of 1817, set in 2004. Could this be a sign of climate change? No, I don't think so, and I'll explain why in a blog later this week.

Severe weather forecast
Severe weather will pound the U.S. again this Memorial Day, with the main action expected to stretch more than halfway across the country--from Texas to New York. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle under its "Moderate Risk" category for severe weather, one step below its highest level of concern, "High Risk". Yesterday was also a "Moderate Risk" day in Iowa and Minnesota. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. After today, it appears the severe weather outbreak will finally diminish, with only a slight risk of severe weather expected Tuesday, and no severe weather expected Wednesday.

Possible development in the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific late this week
For the past 3-6 days, our most reliable global computer weather forecast models have been predicting the development of a low pressure system near or over Central America by Friday of this week. Given the persistence in the models in developing this low, we need to be alert to the possibility of a tropical depression forming in either the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific, on either side of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. It is uncertain which ocean basin such a storm might form in, and whether or not there will be a tropical wave around to help kick off development. It may be that the low pressure region will stay anchored over land south of the Yucatan Peninsula, preventing any development. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model in its last few runs. However, the GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict a tropical depression might form in the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. In contrast, the UKMET shows development in the Eastern Pacific, on the Pacific side of Central America. Climatologically, May tropical storms are much more common in the Eastern Pacific than the Western Caribbean, so we should not discount the UKMET solution, even though it is an outlier. All five models predict that the Central American low pressure area will move northward towards the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear may fall enough to allow a tropical depression to form should the low's center emerge over water. I'll be posting daily updates on the situation this week.

Jeff Masters
Wedge Tornado
Wedge Tornado
A large and violent wedge tornado near Quinter, Kansas. Photo Copyright Mike Theiss
Wallcloud near Lacrosse, Kansas
Wallcloud near Lacrosse, Kansas
Photo of a wallcloud crossing road near lacrosse, Kansas on May 25, 2008. Photo copyight Mike Theiss
Storm Damage
Storm Damage
These are pictures taken of the storm that went through Forest Lake / Hugo, MN. The tornado passed 3 miles south of us, but we got a pretty vicious shot of hail for about 15 minutes straight. The pictures of bldg damage are west of the worst tornado damage, probably where the funnel cloud was just about to reach the ground.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
9:00 AM JST May 27 2008

At 0:00am UTC, Tropical Depression [1008 hPa] located near 13.7N 138.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported moving northwest at 10 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 14.7N 137.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Hey Levi! Haven't seen you on here in awhile. I've got to go in a few, but will be back later this evening. Bye guys.
Well weatherblog it's always good to have someone with a different view point on the blog...otherwise if everyone the same viewpoint we would be saying "I agree" all the time and there wouldn't be much to talk about.
Also, if you look near the African Coast, shear has been light in that area. With the very warm SST's, low dust/SAL, and the light wind shear, we could have another Dennis or Emily in July. Our Cape Verde season may start quickly this season proved by some models already showing some sort of development off of Africa. Plus, we already had many organized tropical waves.

The only thing that's against the waves is the low latitude of the ITCZ.
I still can't believe the locals in SFL mentioned this area in question, their way to spark business in a sagging economy as SJ mentioned earlier, sheesh save it if you can, we're on the verge (ummm, already in one IMO) of a recession? ANYONE tracking this beyond the EPAC and SW Caribbean at this time is wasting it.
Very well organized with deep convection over the center.

1007. Levi32
Hey WBK long time no see! Yeah been very busy and to boot I'm leaving in a week and will be gone until mid-August......but at least I won't be missing the peak of the hurricane season.
we now have TD 6W
JMA forecasts 91W (AKA Tropical depression) to become a tropical storm in 24 hours.
870. hurricane23 8:20 PM EDT
Has anyone seen this lol...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS...

Navy NRL now has 06W NONAME
Continued advisory from below......

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 14.7N 137.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
1013. Drakoen
Photobucket
1014. Levi32
Looks more like a 50-knot TS than a 20-knot TD to me lol.

1015. pottery
Greetings all.
Whats up in the Atlantic this evening ?
A nice flare going on now at around 14n 53w.
Should be over the Islands by Wed.

Any ideas on the track that this wave will follow ? I,m seeing a lot of dry air in front of it .
1014. Levi32 1:47 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Looks more like a 50-knot TS than a 20-knot TD to me lol.


More like a TS real close to hurricane status....they need to get a handle on their forecasts...and analysis..
That area is racing pottery, sheesh. Look behind @30W, rather impressive.
1019. Levi32
Hey jp, yes it has.

Pottery, that wave will probably follow all the others straight west through the southern Caribbean. It will be interesting to see if a wave such as that one will contribute to the development of the low you're all talking about.
Levi32, hi! :)
1021. Levi32
Hi HG :)
THE STORM SURVEY INVESTIGATION IS STILL ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUEON TUESDAY FINAL RESULTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELEASED LATE TUESDAYAFTERNOON.


i will be mad if they make this and EF-3 that was no EF-3 that hit Parkersburg more here


www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=dmx&storyid=14896&source=0
1024. pottery
TheCane W. Yep, I'm seeing that at 31 W. Looking good !

Levi, it will have to move fast to catch that low would'nt it ?
1025. Drakoen
1023. JFV 1:55 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Will that anticyclone eventually make it into the Southwestern Carib Drak, to help intensify our currently developing system?


Possibly. Depends on where the low tracks.


Anyways i'm off for the night. See you guys tomorrow
The first advisory from the JTWC will probably be Tropical Depression 06W with 1 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots.
Interesting conversation on here tonight. I learned a lot. Will wait and see if the GFS verifies. If it does I suppose someone will have a new girlfriend, and someone will have a new wife in the GFS... lol
1003. extreme236 1:40 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Well weatherblog it's always good to have someone with a different view point on the blog...otherwise if everyone the same viewpoint we would be saying "I agree" all the time and there wouldn't be much to talk about.


That's for sure, unlike trolls who just say "This thing will go poof by tomorrow you morons", or "OMG IT JOGGED NORTH, NOW IT WILL HIT NEW ORLEANS AS A CAT 5 DUH".

You gotta listen to all the aspects of something and not only think of it as one way or the other, so disagreement is good when being presented in a healthy manner. I bet many people can agree to that.
1030. Levi32
1024. pottery 5:57 PM AKDT on May 26, 2008
TheCane W. Yep, I'm seeing that at 31 W. Looking good !

Levi, it will have to move fast to catch that low would'nt it ?


Well actually there's time for a couple different waves to catch it. There's another wave over western Venezuela that will be moving into the SW Caribbean in a day or two, and the GFS forecasts this new low to hang around Central America for quite some time, giving the wave east of the islands time to move into that area as well. Again it will be interesting to see how much energy these waves can stack up one after another.
1031. pottery
OK Levi. I see that now. Good point.
Be back in a couple hours when new runs are out.
1034. pottery
I'm sittin' back. I'm chillin' > I'm watchin'

heheheh Its all good
1028. AWeatherLover 2:02 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Interesting conversation on here tonight. I learned a lot. Will wait and see if the GFS verifies. If it does I suppose someone will have a new girlfriend, and someone will have a new wife in the GFS... lol
Action: | Ignore User


haha, your likely referring to me and 456 :-)
Hi everyone

Pottery, that wave at 54W, 13N will move more WNW (across the northern windwards; so no rain for us yet), beacuse strong southeasterly mid level flow will push the multi-layered cloud mass northwards.
1037. pottery
Hi, 77.
I was hoping not to hear that. But I feared that would be the case. Oh well, there's more where that came from LOL
LOL... Yes, there's a ''good looking'' wave around 29/30W...
1040. pottery
Yes 77. That wave at 30 w. Bring it here, I say. My tanks are getting critical..........
well.. The JTWC as of 12am UTC is giving Tropical Depression 06W a sustained wind of 25 knots.

odd since the JMA has it at 30 knots
1043. JRRP
This tropical wave could be the first one that brings rains to the north of the Carib??
1044. Michfan
Good evening everyone. I see we are still on Model Watch 2008. Models seem to be on track with their earlier runs at first glance. NOGAPS still taking the system eastward with the GFS on a westward track across the Yucatan.
Looks like it Jrrp, it's cruising too.
1046. pottery
Looks that way JRRP. The one at 52w.
1 1/2 hours later still back building in the same spot. Those folks have more water than they need, now.

Base reflectivity

storm total
1038. JFV 2:26 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Your thoughts on our tropical situation this evening please CandeAddict?


I am still quite skeptical about the model output tonight, I however feel quite confident in saying that we will have some sort of tropical development in the Caribbean this week...time and location is hard to say at this point though. Before i really begin to judge this situation i want to see an actual disturbance intialize. I am off to bed folks night!
1049. Michfan
Damn looks like Qscat is going to miss the SW Caribbean tonight. Wish it would hit it with the increase in moisture off the east coast of Panama.
A weatherlover .. I sent ya mail!
Actually i think that area of low-pressure in the SW Caribbean is the start of our supposed tropical system later this week. Im off night!
1052. Michfan
Link

Anyone else notice a spin north of Panama or are my eyes deceiving me?
Looks like rain for us in Cayman this weekend which ever whay this things goes this week. Thanks for the links to the different models.
Good evening all... anything new and exciting?
1055. 7544
1051. CaneAddict 2:42 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Actually i think that area of low-pressure in the SW Caribbean is the start of our supposed tropical system later this week. Im off night!


yes thats right and we just got our first look in the tropics from our local channels already this early in may they say a low is forming in the carb and will be moving north and give us in se fla heavy duty rain at the end of this week the season is starting early for us
Who is staying up and waiting on the modles.
No Michfan, it is there. Was noted earlier by kman and Drak. Convection on the die down though, soon to be a naked swirl if it keeps this up.

Evening smmc, good to see you.
1059. pottery
TheCaneW post 1042.
From that loop we can clearly see the upper level winds are bringing in moisture from the Pacific. It will need to continue this for a couple more days, I think, for anything to form around that Low. ?? Also, as pointed out earlier by Levi, the wave over western Venezuela could help do that as well.

Anyone else notice a spin north of Panama or are my eyes deceiving me?


There is most definitely a spin there.... I believe this is the start of the disturbance expected to develop by most models by the end of the week...anyways i have to get to bed..but that area is definitely interesting. It's possible it will be declared an invest tomorrow. Night all!
1061. Michfan
Have to see how it holds up overnight SJ. Blob watching at its finest! It shows up well on the 850 Vort as well. Ill probably be up to see the next run of models. I hope to god the NOGAPS doesn't take as long as it did last night.
what time do the next runs come out ?
Hi SJ... hope you had a good holiday weekend. I spent lots of time with my family, it was great.
1064. pottery
Well, I cant stay awake.
Its 10:43 here already............Goodnight everyone, stay safe
Yea Mich. Will be interesting to see what happens. I will likely be up for the models as well, I am sure my head will be spinning from looking at code, but hopefully it won't affect my ability to view them models :~)

Nogaps is always a slow roller. I think it is trying to hang with Sheba!
Great weekend here smmc, beautiful weather, and likewise, got to spend some time with the family!
1067. Michfan
Next model runs start to pop around midnight EST.
1068. Drakoen
Tonights Quicksat caught what I needed to see from the EPAC. A closed but elongated area of low pressure.
Hmmm...10-day west palm forecast predicts thunderstorms and wind towards the end of the forecast period...
1070. Drakoen
Here we go folks. The NHC is showing a closed area of low pressure at 1005mb.
1072. Drakoen
1071. JFV 3:03 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Drak, what brought you back friend, I thought you where done for the evening here?


I thought I was too but I needed to see that Quicksat pass.
do you think 90L will develop or go poof?
1074. JRRP
this wave is very to north of what was previously
1076. Michfan
Nice pickups Drak. It also shows it as stationary.
1070. Drakoen 3:00 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Here we go folks. The NHC is showing a closed area of low pressure at 1005m


in the EPAC or WC? I cant see the pic
We are talking about a Pacific system..correct?
1079. Drakoen
1077. Clickerous 3:09 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
1070. Drakoen 3:00 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Here we go folks. The NHC is showing a closed area of low pressure at 1005m

in the EPAC of WC? I cant see the pic


EPAC.
1080. Michfan
Link

Clickerous
Thanks Mich.. Well I guess we'll have to wait and see what progresses! Tomorrow might be pretty interesting
1083. Drakoen
1075. JFV 3:07 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
It's a pretty strong closed low already, isn't Drak? Also, do you think that this is finally the inception of our system?


Yes is it a good elongated closed low. Its not necessarily strong. I thought the pressure would be higher closer to 1008mb. Nonetheless, this is most likely the low we will be tracking.
1084. Michfan
1078 as of right now yes. The models are forecasting this low to cross over to the SW Caribbean and develop.
Clickerous, he's refering to the EPAC.
1086. Drakoen
1081. JFV 3:11 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Are you tempted to stay up till midnight waiting for the midnight runs to come out Drak?


No. I need sleep. Sunday was an exception because it was the day before memorial day.
1087. Michfan
BTW just quickly off topic id recommend downloading the new Firefox 3 release candidate. Its pretty damn sweet.
1089. 7544
well our local met just read the update from the nhc its says the low will develope and nove est in the carb then north . and are forcasting heavy duty rain for se fla for the weekend stay tuned looks like the season is off to early start will this be td 1 before june 1st waht you guys and gals think ?
Alright kids... it's been fun lurking, but I'm outta here until tomorrow. See you in the a.m. and I hope some of you "pros" have some new info for me. Ha ha.
The low in the SWCAR seems like it's moving east. Even though shear is pretty unfavorable, the low is at least moving away from land leaving it in the warm waters. Unless I'm not seeing this right...lol
1094. Drakoen
1088. JFV 3:14 AM GMT on May 27, 2008 Hide this comment.
It's currently moving east correct; therefore, do you anticipate the low to cross over the panama canal tomorrow and into the SW Carib or not?


Everything looks to be propagating eastward so its likely an automatic throw out the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC. Now your left with the GFS and NOGAPS. Postive vorticity maximum advection into Panama between Tuesday and Wednesday.
1089. 7544 3:15 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
well our local met just read the update from the nhc its says the low will develope and nove est in the carb then north . and are forcasting heavy duty rain for se fla for the weekend stay tuned looks like the season is off to early start will this be td 1 before june 1st waht you guys and gals think ?


As long as it doesn't interfere with my girlfriend flying down from chicago to ftl on sunday! I've already told her if things are even kinda iffy its prob wise to not fly down and deal with the hassle

1097. 7544
1092. JFV 3:16 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
which met 7544, cause i too reside in south florida!


hi wsvn met
Drak...should I cancel the birthday party I have planned for next weekend????? (Get ready for a lot of this buddy :))


TPC takes the ePac 1007mb low slightly to the north. But, look at the 1007mb low over land interacting with that twave. Then there's another twave behind it that's riding much higher. It'll be interesting to see how that tail of that TUTT interacts with that twave.

Water Vapor loop. There's still some easterly flow in the swCarib, but it seems to be breaking as the high pressure to the north sinks further south.

Moisture starting to build in the s and eCarib.
Interesting little, but fast-moving blob of convection tearing up it up moving nw at about 14n,55w. Looks like a fireworks that's been shot! ;)
What exactly was the nogaps saying?
1103. Drakoen
1099. GeoffreyWPB 3:24 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
Drak...should I cancel the birthday party I have planned for next weekend????? (Get ready for a lot of this buddy :))


No. You should continue to monitor the situation.
jp...same questions from people who were on last year and should know better...ugggggg
1105. Michfan
All anyone can do is just monitor the tropics as usual. Asking if anything is going to hit any specific spot at this point in time is fruitless. Your just wasting your breath doing so.
1108. 7544
dont think there be anychange in the models right now all looks the same as its been so far
1109. Drakoen
The 00z GFS is starting now.
you live around west palm jp?
My mom lives just south of Orlando.
JP, Drak, whomever, sound like the models are hedging somewhat now, too?
1116. Drakoen
Jp, you're playing conservative this year.
Easy jp...I will keep the b-day plans on...:)
Hey everybody, Just checking in and see whats going on out in the tropics
1119. Drakoen
1115. moonlightcowboy 3:37 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
JP, Drak, whomever, sound like the models are hedging somewhat now, too?


Maybe.
1121. Drakoen
1120. jphurricane2006 3:39 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
yes sir I am drak

the GFS has been punch drunk the last 3 days, heck it was making more sense last week than it is now, the EURO dropped it, the CMC well nevermind lol


lol thats good. You'll get along with Adrian better lol.
101. quasigeostropic 10:25 PM CDT on May 26, 2008
This time of yr, models go through an adjustment in their forecasting schemes(transitioning from winter to summer regimes)....This typically means models have a hard time initiating systems correctly in the tropics this time of year. I really dont think there will be anything in the Western Caribbean, but wouldn't rule out something in the Eastern Pacific since they get their season a little earlier climatologically.


Quasi just posted this over in Bob's blog. Makes sense, I thought.
so I need to check the EPAC now huh.....
1123. moonlightcowboy 3:41 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
101. quasigeostropic 10:25 PM CDT on May 26, 2008
This time of yr, models go through an adjustment in their forecasting schemes(transitioning from winter to summer regimes)....This typically means models have a hard time initiating systems correctly in the tropics this time of year. I really dont think there will be anything in the Western Caribbean, but wouldn't rule out something in the Eastern Pacific since they get their season a little earlier climatologically.

Quasi just posted this over in Bob's blog. Makes sense, I thought


We shall see. He brought up some good points.
level-headed is the best jp....i should of invested in Head-On last season!
1129. Drakoen
1125. jphurricane2006 3:42 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
well cautious is the better word, I just have learned that sticking my neck out there when it isnt necessary only gets me railroaded

this year I will just sit back, actually I will likely not be on the main, I wasnt last year and my blood pressure was great!! lol


lol. Its too bad you won't be spending more time here. I won't play conservative this year but I won't play radical either.
JP, you were too in here! LOL, but yeah, there's no point in anyone sticking their neck out until something actually forms first - then, track is still kind of a crap shoot, too.

I'm still thinking we're gonna see an invest pop up sooner from the twaves out of the cATL before what we all consider climatologically normal. They're just coming earlier, frequently and better organized. The ITCZ has started a more northerly move in in the wATL, and I'm thinking we're gonna see a surprise there. Maybe not.

yes I see JFV.... Now should I be concerned about something this soon or is this just a tease to what is really going to come later this summer?????
1132. Michfan
Too bad JP. You started up some good conversations last year :)
so do we no where the big H is going to set up yet ??
1119. Thanks, Drak.
has anyone notice the mid-level rotation in the SW CARIB.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir4.html
1119. Thanks, Drak.
All-Star Author
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Posts:550
Points:91,490
Joined:Feb 2008 Message Posted: 5/26/2008 8:02:30 PM Ignore billy44bo Report Abuse

hope there is no storm in the gulf this year. if there is a storm the bozos will let price go over $6.00 /gal



i 2nd that
Sure did 456, rather healthy.
1132. Michfan 10:47 PM CDT on May 26, 2008
...You started up some good conversations last year :)


Agreed, JP brings a great deal to the discussion!
1140. Michfan
Ok let me put this in bold:

All anyone can do is just monitor the tropics as usual. Asking if anything is going to hit any specific spot at this point in time is fruitless. Your just wasting your breath doing so.
1141. Michfan
I saw it earlier as well 456. Drak and Kman noted it earlier tonight also i believe.
1142. Drakoen
1135. Weather456 3:51 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
has anyone notice the mid-level rotation in the SW CARIB.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir4.html


Yea. Alot of spinning out there in the EPAC and SW Caribbean.
456, yeah, I can see a swirl at about 13n,80w.
No comment
You thinking ground zero 456? There is a closed low looking for convection in the area.
some one to add to my Ignore i see


the Ignore toy is going to be vary ues full this year
1147. tillou
What the heck, I'll say will have something going by Thurs night - Fri morning.

Whatever happens, lets all hope it dosen't get strong enough to shut down the rigs in the gulf.

Could you imagine how much gas would cost if that happens?
The big H is setting up South-East of Bermuda this year. If it remains in that position, storms will tend to move from the tropical Atlantic N-E toward Florida and the East Coast. Those that remain South will tend to move north into the Gulf.

I think everyone is just getting antsy waiting for the tropical season to begin. Patience. The SST in Northern Gulf is still not very warm yet. Gulf and Carribean conditions are not ideal for tropical development, but are getting there.

This year will be active enough for everyone... the wishcasters, the accu-casters and all. People are getting frustrated about a few clouds gathering and a possibility of a low moving into a growth environment. About 4-5 weeks from now, we will be discussing monsters, not a few whisps of clouds.
tillou i no will be paying $6 to $7 or more
HPC's not showing much of anything except high pressure thru about the next seven days. LINK
thanks TX

the Ignore will be put in good ues for me this year am up to # 17 on my Ignore


dont for get this tip if you dont like wiscasting this hit Ignore and move on and i be doing that a lot this year
1152. Michfan
That will change MLC i think once they update it.
For now, it is dfficult to determine whether its at the surface or not due to the impartial QuikSCAT pass and lack of surface observations but it appears the circulation is strongest in the lower atmopshere based on the products at the CIMSS and the GFS analysis (not forecast).
GFS is the same so far, sporting stacked highs with no weakness.
1155. Michfan
Where is that GFS Map that shows both North America and all of the Caribbean at once on its runs?
Western/North Atl Michfan
1157. Michfan
There we go. Thanks TCW.
This what many have been saying....the monsoon trough has moved into the SW Caribbean. Which allowed southwesterlies to enter the Caribbean from the south to meet the already establish trades to induce a circulation.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif
ok all, Well I'm out for the nite..... I will be checking to see what Jeff has to say about this thing......

Have a great nite everybody and I will chat with you tomorrow....

:0)
I like that wave located at 5N-30W. It is moving West over warm seas, not much shear in its path and it will be moving into favorable environment for development.

Of any wave I've seen recently, that one looks like it has a chance to develop as a tropical storm. If it stays south and misses the connection with that trough, it may be our first named storm of the season by week end.
GFS is running the same, but weaker storm.
Link
SPC Outlook for today (Tuesday)
1164. Michfan
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/model_l.shtml

JFV
1165. Michfan
GFS is still running it across the Yucatan it looks like with a strong Bermuda high as well.
GFS lost the trough interaction idea, for sure.
JFV you should know where the models are at by now..just save a link to your favorites.
1160. TXG, I'm watching that sucker, too. Been saying that as well. A CV is gonna slip up on us!
Night All.

MJO is coming around today as expected 456. Interesting area for sure.
Have a good sleep TCW and whomever else is off, too.

456, I know you're watching those waves out there. What's your take on what's coming off and across, now?
I hope 5N-30W system doesn't develop. That would be a bad omen, having a Cape Verde system crossing the Atlantic and forming a T.S. in Carribean this early in the season.

The Gulf still looks like an unfriendly environment for development now. The Carribean is a breeding spot if the right wave moves into place this week.
1175. JLPR
lol did everyone went to sleep =P

thats some interesting convection near 5N 30W

I think I am in the phase in which I think everything will develop lol

and for the West Caribbean possible system...
well when it crosses to the Caribbean then I will pay attention to it =)
system out in the eastern atlantic has a 2% chance to make it across...one near 51W has about a 3% chance to develop... carribean 25%
1177. Michfan
GFS is on some major crack now.
What a fireball of hot dry air!



CLICK on RAMSDIS IR3 WV LOOP

After looking at that loop I, still, just can't see how anything can form and move north. The rotating swirl out at about 13n,80w could possibly spin up on the tail of the TUTT exiting the neCarib over Hispaniola, but that's all I can see with all that high pressure and dry air moving (seemingly for some time to come yet) south. Also, notice on the loop that close in the area of the ePac low, the flow begins to have a westward movement.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
15:00 PM JST May 27 2008

SUBJECT: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON EAST OF PHILIPPINES

At 6:00am UTC, Tropical Depression [1000 hPa] intensified into a tropical storm and was designated the name "Nakri". The storm located near 14.3N 137.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots and is reported moving north-northwest slowly.

Gale-Force Winds
======================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 15.8N 136.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.6N 136.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 19.7N 135.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
A lot vorticity associated with the EPAC/Carribean low.

Morning, guys.

I'm not surprised to see a fast-growing system in the WPac, considering that SSTs are warmer than average there right now. Should be interesting to see how far this system gets strength-wise in the long term.
G'morning all. I see that the 00z nogaps has the system staying fairly weak and traveling East of Fl. This is a very different scenario than the GFS portrays with a TS hitting S fl. The models are losing the system it seems
Morning, FLWeatherfreak.

Yeah, the models may be losing the system, or at the very least, they're confused. But this is to be expected with weak systems that are very disorganized and not even a TD yet.
Baha, don't you mean EAST Pacific?

By the way, the image in my post isn't working. Oh well...
well at least I can almost guarantee that some tropical moisture will be thrown up my way in some form next week.
Re: 1184

Actually Kori, I meant this:

SUBJECT: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON EAST OF PHILIPPINES

At 6:00am UTC, Tropical Depression [1000 hPa] intensified into a tropical storm and was designated the name "Nakri". The storm located near 14.3N 137.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots and is reported moving north-northwest slowly.

I don't expect to see more than a closed low from that area around the Isthmus of Panama (E or W of it) before the weekend. I am noting the increased buildup in activity there with interest, however.
1187. IKE
00Z ECMWF.....

Link


This looks like a drawn out system...time wise...this may go on for awhile...not saying it's going to amount to anything.....
The other item of interest for me this a. m. is the cold low off to the east of us (Bahamas). This generated some refreshing northerly winds here yesterday, along with a refreshing "one cloud" shower around 2 p.m. yesterday (since that's normally the beginning of the hottest part of the day, it really kept temps in our area down). I had expected it to move further east and north by now, so it's interesting that it's still "hanging around", as it were.
Anyway, I'm out for the day. I may get a chance to peep in later, but given the potentially hectic nature of my schedule, I doubt it. Enjoy the day, all, and happy "blob" hunting!
Narki formed I predicted this a few days in advance I also said Typhoon that is in the prediction. I bet nobody cares though why arn,t we obsessed over other oceanic storms like the Atlantic ones?
1191. IKE
Because 99% of the folks on here don't live over there...it's always been that-a-way on here.
1193. IKE
It looks like the system everyone is interested in around Panama, is going to hang around the Yucatan peninsula/Belize area, for a few days.......
06Z GFS, 00Z NGPS show a Caribbean system.
00Z ECMWF briefly shows a EPAC system and the 00Z UKMET shows a EPAC system.
The Tropics Come Alive

Good Tuesday morning to all!

Well the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season official begins on Sunday but that isn%u2019t stopping the slumbering giant from waking up and giving us some preview action of what is suppose to an above average hurricane season. There are 4 areas of interest out there and only two has prospect of development.

More

nothing will happen inthe MDR for the time being. condtions are not conducive for tropical stoem development in the near future i cannot see any development until the middle of june
Look at the GFS LONG Range on the 8th there is a nice low near florida. 2 links
LINK 1
LINK 2
Just to point something out here...on the NHC 48-hour formation map, the southern Caribbean is also included in the cone now.
An excerpt from the EPAC TWD:

RECENT
AND AND CURRENT PRES ANALYSES REVEAL THAT THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE TIED IN TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WHICH COVERS THE FAR
ERN PACIFIC ROUGHLY FROM 04N TO 15N E OF 100W TO CENTRAL
AMERICA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SPECIFIC LOW CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...AND LIKELY TRACK TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THEN MORE NLY IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.
good posting 456 and i quite agree with the potential of these systems but i still do not see anything happenning despite what the models try to say. like you ialways make my forecast on what met parameters are present and what is in the future before i get too excited about making any positive announcements. we will wait and see if the models are correct with one of the systems to emerge off the African coast
1190. all4hurricanes 6:24 AM EDT on May 27, 2008
Narki formed I predicted this a few days in advance I also said Typhoon that is in the prediction. I bet nobody cares though why arn,t we obsessed over other oceanic storms like the Atlantic ones?


Some of us do watch the other basins, all4. A lot of the people who stick with the blog year round do it because they want to watch SPac and SInd storms. Personally I think we can learn a lot more about TCs and how they function if we look at the entire globe and not just one basin. There's something to that teleconnection theory . . .
1190. all4hurricanes 6:24 AM EDT on May 27, 2008
Narki formed I predicted this a few days in advance I also said Typhoon that is in the prediction. I bet nobody cares though why arn,t we obsessed over other oceanic storms like the Atlantic ones?


Nope...I also watch other basins but post little about them during this time of year. I was ridicule by a few blogers, along with Taz in 2006 when we were posting about Ioke, since then, I tend to shy away from that.
I don't think Models actually had anything forming before tomorrow anyway, fury.

Is anybody looking back to see if the original GFS long-range forecast was actually on target? That had to have been 8-10 days ago at least.
1204. IKE
1203. BahaHurican 6:00 AM CDT on May 27, 2008
I don't think Modelsactually had anything forming before tomorrow anyway, fury.

Is anybody looking back to see if the original GFS long-range forecast was actually on target? That had to have been 8-10 days ago at least.


It had a system forming in the Caribbean.......
1202. Weather456 7:00 AM EDT on May 27, 2008
I was ridicule by a few blogers, along with Taz in 2006 when we were posting about Ioke, since then, I tend to shy away from that.


Thing is, Ioke is the kind of storm we SHOULD be posting about, regardless of the basin it's in. Actually, the chances of an Ioke in the ATL are pretty low, so when we see one in the CPac and WPac, it's worth watching. Ioke is one of the better examples of an annular cyclone, and it broke numerous records for longevity and peak strength etc.

If we can only watch ATL and EPac storms, we are losing out not only on the full entire TC watching experience, but also on the opportunity to develop a true understanding of these natural phenomena and how they function.

Alright, I'm off the soap box LOL. I gotta go to work!
Before I go, I'd like to say a special "thanks much" to HGW, who makes a consistent effort to post info on cyclones in other basins. We may not say much about it, but we do appreciate it.
This will be interesting....
Tropical Weather Update [12:16 BST 27/5/08] EPAC YELLOW ALERT (20%)

Hi

We have a Yellow alert for East Pacific development today......

MORE
1209. Patrap
Annular is a Eyewall condition,not a Type of Hurricane. Link
Well I can guarantee that if it forms it will hit Orlando at 12 noon on Saturday, because we are having my son's outdoor Birthday Party then - LOL!
456, it is funny that you were ridiculed for watching Ioke which ultimately affected the Atlantic season in 06. While I don't follow the other development areas as closely, there is nothing to lose by doing so. Ioke was such a huge storm, it affected world weather patterns long after it was gone.
1212. Patrap
1213. Patrap
I remember when the Models bounced Ioke off the IDL and folks were freaking out,It's coming Back,Itsa,Itsa..LOL
what do you think on that area of convection East of Coasta Rica?
Ioke was so large, it had a "ripple" effect on weather systems for months after that.
1215. That area will have a very hard time moving northward for a week or so unless the airmasss over Florida changes very quickly.
1218. Patrap

Steve Pope / Getty Images
The tornado that ripped through Parkersburg, Iowa, destroyed at least a third of the town of 2,000, killing four. The tornado may have traveled on the ground for as long as an hour, according to the National Weather Service.


Parkersburg, population 2,000, had seen its economic fortunes improving. The storm kills four people and destroys at least a third of the town.

By Jay Christensen and P.J. Huffstutter, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
May 27, 2008
PARKERSBURG, IOWA -- In a place where a man's fortune often depends on which way the wind blows, Parkersburg was enjoying a time of bounty. Farmers across the region, flush from a nation hungry for corn-based ethanol, had splurged on new tractors and sporty trucks for the first time in years.

Along the main thoroughfare, business was brisk. Civic leaders routinely boasted about how -- in a state without a professional football team -- this hamlet of fewer than 2,000 people had turned out four NFL players over the last two decades.

Such good times in a state that has seen its economy roller coaster and its population dwindle in recent decades made Sunday's deadly storms all the more painful.

The tornado that ripped through this blue-collar agricultural town -- destroying at least a third of Parkersburg and killing four people -- was nearly a mile wide in spots and cut a path almost 50 miles long. National Weather Service officials said early estimates indicated the tornado might have traveled on the ground for as long as an hour.

Two more people were killed in nearby New Hartford, about nine miles to the east. And at least 65 people were injured when the tornado barreled across freshly planted fields in this eastern portion of the state, about 80 miles northeast of Des Moines.

"You really are overwhelmed when you see it," said Iowa Gov. Chet Culver at a news conference Monday. "You can't imagine this kind of devastation, homes completely gone."

The search for the injured and the dead stretched into the early morning hours Monday as emergency vehicles raced across debris-littered roads. At least two of those killed in Parkersburg had been huddled inside their basements, city officials said.

"We get tornadoes here, but it has been years and years since we've seen anything close to being this bad," said Rod Donavon, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Des Moines. "The sirens went off. People sought shelter. And they still died."

The storm system was believed to have been at least a 3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which estimates the strength of tornadoes from 0 to 5. A level 3 means the winds were between 136 mph and 165 mph.

After the tornado hit about 5 p.m. Sunday, Jason Johnson and his wife, Barb, crawled out of the basement and gazed upon miles of overturned trucks and houses blown off their foundations.

Their house was destroyed.

Johnson's parents had recently sold their home in nearby Waverly, and were expecting to move next week -- to a place just down the block from their son.

That house also was demolished.

"None of us has a place to go after Friday," said Jason Johnson, 39. "I'd like to find my wife's wedding ring. That would make my day. I found mine this morning in the backyard."

On Monday, Mayor Robert Haylock had to duck under downed power lines as he focused on Parkersburg's other immediate problems: clean water, steady phone service and housing hundreds of residents in a town that had lost 21 businesses and more than 200 homes.

Some of those homes were on the town's south side, part of a new subdivision near a nine-hole golf course tucked in the middle of farm country. They're all gone. Debris was scattered across fields, and chunks of rebar and siding had pierced the trunks of wind-stripped trees.

Haylock, who has served on the City Council since 1973, was out of town when the storm hit. He arrived about 10 minutes after it passed.

Parkersburg's lone grocery store was in ruins, as was the only gas station. The same was true of City Hall, along with government records and historical documents that date to the 1800s.

Just last month, Parkersburg had passed a multimillion-dollar bond measure so the school district could build a fine arts auditorium for concerts and community plays.

It was another sign, Haylock said, of how Parkersburg "was growing and the economy was good."

Aplington-Parkersburg High School now has no roof, no windows and few standing brick walls. The gymnasium, where at least 1,000 people gathered for graduation last week, was a mangled pile of crumbled brick, shredded roofing tiles and sodden paper.

On the football field, a goal post was twisted and broken, as were the aluminum bleachers. Much of the high school's memorabilia honoring the Falcons' proud football past was either missing or buried beneath piles of debris that, in some places, were nearly two stories high.

Dozens of parents and teachers spent Monday digging through the rubble for reminders of local heroes such as the Denver Broncos' Casey Wiegmann and the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Kampman -- who have returned home over the summers to work out in the weight room and inspire young players with stories of life in the NFL.

Their high school football coach, Ed Thomas, was busy Monday answering frantic calls from out-of-town family and former students -- and trying to dig a few mementos from the wreckage of his home.

Nearly everyone he knows was affected by the storm. Wiegmann's father still lives in town. A tree hit his house, Thomas said.

Kampman raced from Kansas City, Mo., to get back Monday. His grandfather was one of the people injured in the storm, Thomas said.

"We'll put this town back together," said Thomas, who has lived in Parkersburg for 33 years. "We're going to rebuild and stay here, coaching and teaching. God give me help."
are tornadoes supposed to pop up today as well?
1220. Patrap
Max Mayfield on Major Hurricanes Link

my family lives in the Kansas City suburbs and already had a close call this year..hopefully things tame down soon
1223. nash28
Morning all. I see we still have the 50-50 split in the models as to which basin the supposed low will develop in.
Look here we have jumped up to orange on the scale which indicates about a 20-50 percent chance at development.



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 27 2008

RECENT
AND AND CURRENT PRES ANALYSES REVEAL THAT THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE TIED IN TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WHICH COVERS THE FAR
ERN PACIFIC ROUGHLY FROM 04N TO 15N E OF 100W TO CENTRAL
AMERICA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SPECIFIC LOW CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...AND LIKELY TRACK TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THEN MORE NLY IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.

can anyone explain to me what factors these models are suggesting will move this ghost system north? To my untrained eye, that seems unlikely as of now, but is something supposed to change?
is there anyone on here we can email and ask them to fix their sst map.
1227. IKE
I don't think it's a ghost system anymore...it's there...

You can see a turn in the clouds.
1228. nash28
If that continues, an invest will be forthcoming.
1229. nash28
We could have 90E, which crosses over then turns into 90L.
1230. IKE
Probably right Nash..........
Good Tuesday morning everyone. Just looked at satellite imagery for our feature and must say that the computer models may have been right. It seems like we are starting to see somehwat better organization around two defined LLCs as well as a rapid northward movement of tropical moisture in the Caribbean. Still nothing to classify as an invest in my opinion, but it seems that the mess may be starting to organize. But, I will not consider the computer models until we have a defined system.
1233. IKE
I'm not sold on it going north much for a few days....
1234. Patrap
GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast (by HYCOM) Model Link
1235. Patrap
GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast (by Wave Watch III) ModelLink
yeah, as someone noted earlier, and I looked at, the water vapor and winds are all pushing south..the models must be relying on something to change that in the coming days..
1238. IKE
It's gonna do what it's gonna do...they better get over it......fun to watch though........
1240. Patrap
If some spent just 1 % of their time here preparing,..They'd be a lot more Prepared when a Event does comes.
1241. IKE
I know...they jump the gun..."when will it hit FL.", etc....they get pissed when it doesn't form...I know what you're saying.....
1242. Patrap
Disappointment in Tropical Formation is always welcome,,..
1244. IKE
Amen Patrap.......
1245. Patrap
High Wind risk areas Page,NOAA Link
Indeed there is some turning but as the NHC points out its a very broad circulation which could slowly consolidate and drift E/NE slowly



Here are a few links you can use to view this area.

RAMSDIS COSTA RICA IMAGES

RAMSDIS 4-km Floater Loop

Accuweather Enhanced Infrared Central America Loop

1247. IKE
It is a broad circulation.
I have a new neighbor who just moved here from western NC...we were talking yesterday about the season...he said his plan is to come over to my house, as I have a preparedness plan/supplies/genny, etc.......hated to break it to him, but it ain't gonna quite workout like that for him....
1252. Patrap
Well most arent as educated as they may think.

Common Sense can go a Long way
A smart Man protects his equity with a Plan.Not wishing .
You can see here on this infrared loop this is a broad circulation but its trying very slowly to get its act together.Nothing imminent though.

Infrared Loop
ha ha, press..my mom was visiting during Wilma, talk about stress...the visitors are all excited until the aftermath occurs..mom was ready to get her hair done the next day,lol. Had to break it to her that there wasn't a salon open for about 100 miles North of me, and I didn't have the gas to get her there!
Good morning...

Pat, you will be happy to know I am well prepared (just in case)! Our supply kit is stocked and our evac plan has been worked out.

Anything new this morning?
1256. Patrap
Then your way ahead of Most and the Threats if they come.
Outstanding smmc
1225. KrazyKaneLove 8:35 AM EDT on May 27, 2008
can anyone explain to me what factors these models are suggesting will move this ghost system north? To my untrained eye, that seems unlikely as of now, but is something supposed to change?


Steering flows at different levels determine where systems move. Weaker storms are funky. Here is link of Steering Layer Wind Steering Layer Winds
Hi Nash,
On Friday the CMC model was suggesting for development to occur in the Pacifi and then cross over into the Atlantic side as a possiblity. How funny.
ty tampa, forgot about the weakness factor with steering..
...as I explained to my new neighbor...an integral element of my preparedness plan is a Browning Automatic 12 guage shotgun and a drawer full of shells.....
1263. Michfan
Good morning all. I see things haven't changed too much. Blob watching glasses are on for today.
random question: Let's say a large cat 5 threatens central and s.fla., causing mass pandemonium and endless traffic on evac. routes (all heading north)..you live inland, do you risk evac, or do you ride it out? After the Houston evacuation, I wonder about that sometimes..my dad tried to evac during floyd, and it took him 18 hours to reach savannah(double the normal time).Comments..
1265. Keys99
Eyw Weather just mentions more moisture at this time in the long term,they are not saying anything about tropical systems yet. The thing that worries me now is if NWS even mentions a system heading into the gulf there will be a run up of Oil prices. We can get out of the way of a storm but you cant run away from the Oil prices
I am very prepared for hurricane season...very prepared to leave that is. I will not be staying...What use is it to have some drinking water when your roof comes off? What good does all that extra food do you when you have 3 feet of water in your kitchen...if it is still there that is? Who cares if you have a generator when your bed has just floated down the road? Better to be safe then sorry, get a plan to get out...Board up if you want, put your precious memories you can't take with you in sealed, plastic containers with your cell phone number and name in them...tie down anything loose...do what you have to do...then, leave...don't take any chances...just leave...these storms bring not only hurricane force winds and storm surge...they also bring tornados, lightning, downed powerlines, sewage and other yucky stuff in the flood waters...you name it...I will always be thankful I got in my car and left for Katrina...Make no mistake...evacuate..
I would always evac if I thought my family would be in danger... but then again I have a baby who will be turning 1 in about a week and a half. I might be a little more cautious than most.
1269. nash28
KrazyKane- There is only one answer. Evacuate. CAT 5? Anyone who stays is begging to die. There is no home or possession in the world worth a life. And with hurricanes, you have days of warning. Those that get stuck for 18hrs are usually those that wait until the last minute to get out.

Sorry to sound flippant, but it's true.
west palm beach news talked about the possibility last night
KrazyKaneLove,
You should evac only when told to do so, go to a shelter if need be in your area. If you are in a low-lying flood prone area a mobile home park or the local officials tell you to leave do so. To evac for no particular reason is silly and it clogs up the roads more and prevents those who need to leave from doing so.
No Ghost anymore in the SW Carribean..wow check out visible satelite......Link
k, thanks, you have all answered any lingering thoughts I had on the subject..I sure hope it doesn't occur this year, though..many people couldn't afford the evac., I fear..and unfortunately, many companies expect their employees to stick around it seems here in florida, they still take these things in stride..somewhat.
Going through Andrew's 150-160mph winds in 92 my best advice is BE GONE.Thankfully they are rare events.Remember you dont need a cat5 to do extreme damage as even a cat1/cat2 can do significant damage.The most deadly aspect of tropical cyclones stems from inland flooding, which often occurs when the system is much weaker over land. It could simply be the remnants that induce inland flooding.
KrazyKane,
You can also stay with relatives that is what I did during Charley, Frances and Jeanne, if you live in a mobile home that is what I would do if I lived inland most officials advise people who live far enough from the coast to do that as opposed to evacuating.
The visible loop is showing some good spin starting......invest90l coming soon...
Morning everyone.

Current IR/GFS overlay for the East Pacific:

The visible loop is showing some good spin starting

Spin on IR and visible bands.
The circualation in the Carribean is better defined than in the Pacific currently, but does not mean it will stay that way.
1281. NEwxguy
GM,all
I like that comment from Patrap about common sense.Too many people don't use common sense in dangerous weather.Reading the story of the guy out in the midwest who died when he tried to outrun a tornado in his car.
That commercial comes to mind.
WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!!
Could very well stay in the E-pac but we'll see.

I see 2 areas one in the e-pac and one north of panama.
yeah i know sportguy, but my dad lives in Melbourne, so often we don't know till its too late who is going to be affected worst, like with frances and jeanne. We don't live in a mobile home and so far have been thru frances, jeanne, and wilma, with no roof damage, at least...but after Wilma am a lot concerned about what a cat 4 or 5 would do..whole different ballgame..and often, even with advance warning these things can change course drastically at last minute, like Charley, and even Wilma.
Hurricane Wilma only brought Cat1/2 conditions to Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach and still managed to become the 3rd costliest hurricane in U.S. history.
Its better difined in the Carr. than EPac. in my opinion. If you look at visiblie 1k closeup looped.

KrazyKane,
Were you asked to evac? Another tip is to go to Town Hall and ask to speak about to a official who handles those areas. I've done that, they can give you information about your flood zone and give you examples of things of when you should go, preparing and education are the great tools to deal with adversity in weather.
KrazyKane, taking advice from some of the Regulars on WU isn't bad advice either. Most regulars on here are very level headed and would give you good advice.
Tropical Weather Discussion for TUESDAY, May 27, 2008.



Throughout the entire Tropical Atlantic, there is one feature that I have begun to watch very closely in the Southwest Caribbean and extreme Eastern Pacific. Based upon the latest satellite imagery, it appears that two defined low-level circulations have developed within a few hundred miles on either side of Costa Rica. Both seems like very-well developed lows, but a tropical system cannot form when there are two lows in such close proximity to one another.

Like I have been discussing the past few days, the computer models continue to develop a tropical system in the Western Caribbean with the merging from these two lows. Thus far, I have not seen any signs merging will take place and would not be surprised if this does not occur at all. We could see a rare case here where we have two tropical systems form from the respective lows as they both are forecasted to move northward in the coming days, but that remains highly unlikely.

Right now, I will not be forecasting a tropical storm in the Northwest Caribbean at week's end as we do not even have a defined system to track. But, if and when we do get a defined system to track, I will have much more to offer as to possible tracks and strength. For now, there is no reasoned to worry about the computer models as the system the computer models show has not even come together, although there is some active weather occuring in the area where the models forecast development to begin occuring.

Apart from the featured area, we have several tropical waves throughout the tropics, none of which that show any signs of tropical development. At this time in the year, I do not expect tropical development from tropical waves, although it would not be unusual to see.

Stay tuned to further updates on the situation possibly brewing in the Southwest Caribbean/Eastern Pacific region.
JPHurricane,
Invest coming sooner than later IMO
NEGuy, I hope you aren't referring to me..I just know from experience that trying to evacuate can be more dangerous at times than staying put. Most floridians can attest to that , after finding there is no gas to be found on the turnpike or I-95, and gridlock traffic from those who have run out of gas..florida is a peninsula that can experience hurricane force winds throughout the entire state, everyone heads north from panic and then cannot find lodging up in georgia, etc.It is a very precarious situation if we do have a large cat 5 coming towards us, the sheer population alone en masse exodus would be catastrophic.
JP,
Brian Shields from WFTV/WDRQ wrote me back he said the models do show a weak low developing although not as impressive as before. He said the models showed development in the middle of next week, he add maybe the season will kick off with an early storm.
We need to have QuikSCAT pass over the Southwest Caribbean disturbance. If there is someone who can find any buoy and ship data from the area, could you please post it for us? It would help very much in determining if tropical development may be occuring there. I may have to change the tropical update I posted about two hours ago that I just posted here.
Newest visible view
1298. IKE
NOGAPS 6Z run kind of loses it.....

Link
JP,
I will email him back then, and let him know about a low forming, he sent the email during Daybreak this something, he might not of caught up on everything yet :)

Hopefully we he will update on Eyewitness News at 12.
1295. jphurricane2006 9:53 AM EDT on May 27, 2008
03 a low has already formed, this is a complex system

its two lows in close proximity of each other, one usually wins out

the SW Car low looks more impressive, but the EPAC low has better conditions and is favored by the models

Might want to look at THIS from CIMSS.
1301. crownwx
CIMSS wind shear analysis chart shows 20 to 40 knots of shear over the southwest Caribbean convection. Personally, I don't think we'll see development out of it for at least the next couple of days.

Link
KrazyKane, I lived in Melbourne through Jeanne and Francis too, and I think it gave me a really distorted view of hurricanes in that I thought they were "fun" to ride out. However the wind and rains were nothing like they had in Stuart. Heck, I never even lost my directv connection. The gusts around 80 mph were scary and I can't imagine what 150 mph would feel like.

It's tough to leave when you are looking at a Cat2, but it can become a Cat3 or 4 before you know it.
1305. NEwxguy
1292. KrazyKaneLove 1:50 PM GMT on May 27, 2008
NEGuy, I hope you aren't referring to me..I just know from experience that trying to evacuate can be more dangerous at times than staying put. Most floridians can attest to that , after finding there is no gas to be found on the turnpike or I-95, and gridlock traffic from those who have run out of gas..florida is a peninsula that can experience hurricane force winds throughout the entire state, everyone heads north from panic and then cannot find lodging up in georgia, etc.It is a very precarious situation if we do have a large cat 5 coming towards us, the sheer population alone en masse exodus would be catastrophic.
No,not referring to you,evacuation is one of those things,you have to judge according to your on situation and the conditions.
I was referring to people trying to outrun tornadoes or trying to drive across a flooded out road,moving under a tree in a thunderstorm,things like that.
Sheer is dropping in that area
If there is someone who can find any buoy and ship data from the area, could you please post it for us?

NBDC Ship and Buoy Observations (within a radius of 400 miles from 14N, 78W).

I found one that seemed interesting...coordinates = 11.70 -80.10

Report time (GMT) - 1200
Wind Speed (kts) - 14.0
Wave Height - 1.6 ft
Pressure (inches) - 29.80
Pressure tendency - 0.02
Air temperature (F)- 75.2
Dew Point (F) - 72.7
Adrian,
The chart you posted shows Convergence on both sides in the ATL and Pacific??
JP from the view at those maps the caribbean has the best convergence at the moment.Upper level winds are not to favorable right now but they may slacken off a bit by late week.
1310. nash28
As we have all learned over the year, persistence is key.
1311. IKE
Anyone notice the spin east of SE FL.?.......

Link
1310. nash28 10:06 AM EDT on May 27, 2008
As we have all learned over the year, persistence is key.

Yep.
1313. Michfan
The convection in the SW Caribbean needs to persist through the day. It puttered out a bit last night. You can see the low level circulation pretty well on the visible loop.

850mb vorticity is showing the elongated low in the Pacific very well. The low in the SW Carribean not as well.



Current wind shear shows an anticyclone developing over the low the EPac and the SW Carribean low is over approximately 20-30 knots of wind shear but i believe that is forecast to lower over the next few days.





If any of these make it to the east coast of the Yucatan it will enter a very favorable wind shear profile to develop in.
sorry, NE, I was just trying to provide some levity to the blog during slow time, now things have picked up again..ty for your reply. P.S. my husband is from Framingham, go Pats, sox, and especially, Celtics!
1315. Michfan
http://www.stormjunkie.com/qcklnk.php

Bookmark for all of your tropical link needs.
yeah Ike, I was was just eyeballing that..always watch out there this time of year for sneaky blobs..lol
Looking at the newest visible that just came in, in my opinion we have a devlopoing Surface low in the SW Carribean forming.
1318. nash28
Gotta run and fix some wireless issues here in the hospital for a bit. I will be checking Vis as soon as I get a chance.
1319. NEwxguy
NP, Krazy,I'm sure your husband doesn't miss the winters up here.
Good Morning ev1. So how things looking tropical wise. I will be in and out. Have to rip carpet out of a bass boat and put new in. That's my speciality.
Sheri
Here is the latest Visible.
1323. Michfan
The low in the SW Caribbean is going to need shear to drop a bit.
JP,
Just watch Eyewitness News at 12 then Brian will show a Sat pic.
NE, nope, but he was "wicked upset" during 2004, having to shutter up the house with no friends or family to help..there is a price to pay for beautiful weather..trying to explain the woes of a hurricane to his brothers in N.E. was almost comical to hear, needless to say, they gave him a hard time...as he always boasts about the temperatures to them.
Michfan you are correct sheer does need to drop.
1327. Michfan


If the convection in Central Africa stays where its at and propogates westward i think we could start to see the ITCZ shift northward in the next week or two.
1294. cchsweatherman

You can monitor this island of the east coast of Nicaragua San Andres Isla its located at 12-35N 081-43W.
1330. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
354 am CDT Tuesday may 27 2008
008

Regarding model generation of tropical low from western Caribbean
Sea next week...the models continue to flip-flop on this solution
with GFS now showing some energy meandering over Yucatan Peninsula
while a separate low peels off and deepens while moving into the
Florida Peninsula next week. European model (ecmwf) shows a similar split but then
decays both circulations rather quickly with little fanfare. This
appears to be the start of a season of model idiosyncracies in the
tropical latitudes of the model domain. These solutions...given
the distance in time...are being discounted beyond Monday.


Patrap thank you for serving for me and our country. Hope you had a great Veterans Day.
Gang im not a Met but it sure looks like a SL is developing in the SW Carrib.
Photobucket

Now, I have indicated where I have observed two surface lows at the present time. Both are quite well-defined on satellite imagery and both have some deep convection developing in association with them. There is something that I have observed that has impressed me about the Southwest Caribbean low that noone else has mentioned to my surprise. Notice how there is, what appears to be, a feeder band attached to the eastern side of the low feeding in deep tropical moisture from the Pacific over Panama and into the system. This is very much a sign that the Southwest Caribbean low is currently the stronger low. Now, to the Pacific low, it remains quite broad, but definitely closed. There is a wide expanse of heavy showers and storms encircling the southern portion of the low, but convection is absent from the northern portion. It may just be too broad to start any significant tropical development within the next 48 hours. If the Pacific low consolidates, then we could have some battle over which low wins out.
You are correct Tampa. There is a surface low developing and strengthening in the Southwest Caribbean right now.
1335. nash28
Any wind obs down near that Low?
Good Morning Folks.........Agree with all of the comments as to the potential E-Pac/Central AM system with regard to needed persistence, and, only one of those areas "fully" developing, if at all, due to the close proximity......Looks like a pretty small window of opportunity on the Atlantic side right now (with some shear just to the North of the "blob" near Panama).......
1337. Patrap
Why thanks Tampaspin,..My Service years were fine ones,and it was an Honor to Serve the Nation.

LSU ESL site.Link

A thing of note the Pacific low should enhance the Carribean low on a Northerly direction into a more favaorable environment.
1339. Patrap
UNYSIS GFSx Day-8 4June 0Z surface Link
Many people have been doubting that this entire system will be moving northward like the models have shown. Here is an explanation for why this entire system will INDEED move northward.
Photobucket
Right now, there is an upper level trough that has dug into the Northwest Caribbean as a result of the front that moved through South Florida on Sunday. The upper level trough has been creating some very high wind shear in the Northwest Caribbean (around 40kts.).

During the next 24 to 48 hours, this upper-level trough will exit the Northwest Caribbean and move into the Northern Atlantic. This will lift the entire system out from the Southwest Caribbean and Eastern Pacific and into the Northwest Caribbean and over Central America. During this time, an upper-level high (better known as an anticyclone) will develop over the system. This will cause a rapid drop in shear over the Northwest Caribbean by late week.

Beyond that, not much can be gleened based upon the current conditions as to what will happen to any system that would develop and move into the Northwestern Caribbean.
Hope they get this fixed:

THE FLOW OF QUIKSCAT DATA WAS INTERRUPTED LAST NIGHT. A
DATABASE PROBLEM WAS DIAGNOSED AS THE CAUSE. SUPPORT STAFF
ARE WORKING TO MAKE REPAIRS.

Noticed update on quikscat page has not updated since May 27 02:42


Link
1342. nash28
It figures. Tropics begin waking up from the six month nap. QS craps out already...
1345. Patrap
The Ouikscat database problem isnt related to the On Orbit Operation or Health of the Actual Spacecraft
Does anybody have a link to ASCAT data?
There is no circulation center in the SW carribean...there are weak mid-level lows... A surface low should begin to form later tonight and into Weds.
1344. HouseofGryffindor 11:06 AM EDT on May 27, 2008
cchs how would the blob be steered when it is in the gulf? Would it keep moving north or is there another mechanism that could turn it?


Like I have been stating, it would be just pure speculation beyond the point when any system would reach the Northwestern Caribbean, but we would need to watch any troughs in the northern US very closely to see what effect they would have on the Atlantic ridge. Thats about as much as I can tell you without going into speculation.
1349. Patrap

Press Releases

June 13, 2007
ECMWF operational weather forecasts now use IASI and ASCAT data
Reading/Darmstadt/Toulouse – IASI radiance and ASCAT surface wind data, both derived from instruments on board of Metop-A, are operationally used in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasting system - just over 12 weeks after the first data were disseminated to Numerical Weather Prediction centres and only 8 months after the launch of the Metop-A satellite on 19 October 2006. Link
Scott no one said a SL was there i believe most have stated one is developing as you just stated.
1353. Patrap
[PDF]
ASCAT validation with buoy and QuikSCAT data
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
For global scales, the quality of ASCAT data is investigated using .... ASCAT and QuikSCAT data coherency is also investigated based on the approach ...
www.ocean-sci-discuss.net/5/77/2008/osd-5-77-2008.pdf - Similar pages
Link
good morning my friends; haven't really read back yet but last time I was here on Saturday I know the models were predicting a possible invest this week... is something out there?

I'm home today so should get a chance to check in and out during the day. Hope Dr master's sets up a new thead soon.

So an invest yet??? (will go read back now) LOL
1356. Patrap
Jeff Masters Entry on Quikscat and ASCAT Data Link

QuikSCAT now has help. An important new source of QuikSCAT-like data has been made available by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). They launched their first polar-orbiting satellite, Metop-A, in October 2006, and declared the satellite ready for routine operations as of May 2007. This satellite carries a scatterometer called ASCAT which, like QuikSCAT, measures the winds at the ocean surface. ASCAT doesn't "see" the Earth's surface as well as QuikSCAT can--ASCAT sees chunks of the surface 25 km by 25 km, while QuikSCAT has a resolution twice as good--12.5 km. In addition, ASCAT only sees 60% of what QuikSCAT sees of the Earth's surface--QuikSCAT sees a swath of ocean 1800 km wide, while ASCAT sees two parallel swaths 550 km wide, separated by a 720 km gap. I found it frustrating to use ASCAT much this hurricane season, since it seemed that the passes missed the center of circulation of a storm of interest about 75% of the time.
1357. Michfan
http://www.stormjunkie.com/qcklnk.php

Terra.

Yeah scott brings up a good point. THe 850 vort on the SW Caribbean low doesnt show up well so im not entirely convinced its hit the surface yet. The elongated low in the EPac on the other hand does.
cchs did... and there is none there. 1 may begin to form later tonight..but currently only midlevel vortxes!
1355. nrtiwlnvragn 11:15 AM EDT on May 27, 2008

Thanks.
1357. Michfan 11:16 AM EDT on May 27, 2008

SJ only has the Quickscat page linked. I'm looking for Ascat data. Thanks anyway.
1340. cchsweatherman 9:02 AM CST on May 27, 2008
This will lift the entire system out from the Southwest Caribbean and Eastern Pacific and into the Northwest Caribbean and over Central America.


If the "system" does not get better organized over the next 24 hours, isn't also possible that it could just be swept to the NE by the lifting trof; just as a band of unorganized clouds?
1365. Patrap
GOES-12 (3 Channels) Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour) Link
1364. ricderr 9:20 AM CST on May 27, 2008 RLMAO!; you even got the plane correct; F-14 Tomcat
From that Pic...I think they are practicing maneuvers in the persian gulf where they would capture the Iranian president and skip im across the gulf to a aircraft carrier..haha!
1362. weathermanwannabe 11:18 AM EDT on May 27, 2008
1340. cchsweatherman 9:02 AM CST on May 27, 2008
This will lift the entire system out from the Southwest Caribbean and Eastern Pacific and into the Northwest Caribbean and over Central America.

If the "system" does not get better organized over the next 24 hours, isn't also possible that it could just be swept to the NE by the lifting trof?


That could be true. I don't even know why I keep calling it a "system" when a system is an organized weather feature. I should be calling this a feature, not a system or a disturbance until it gets organized.

By the way, scottsvb, you are correct that there is no surface low right now. I should have stated that a surface low is developing. I was wrong in saying that there is a surface low down there. Too bad QuikSCAT is having problems right now because we all want to see a QuikSCAT for the area.
i was wondering- How can you tell if an anticyclone was forming?
Good morning everyone...

Just checking in from Jupiter after a long, relaxing weekend!
1371. Patrap
4-Panel WV Tropics ZOOM to Se. LA..Dry Air Shaded Link
1372. Michfan
1369 by looking at the upper level wind flow. A cyclones winds go counter-clockwise while an anticyclone goes clockwise. If you analyze the winds in the upper levels you should see an opposite spin above the cyclone.

You can see one forming over the EPac low here. Look at the pinkish lines and the direction they flow in over the low:

Now the 12UTC GFS is running and starts with a 1008mb surface low in the Southwest Caribbean. So, there could indeed be a surface low now in the Southwest Caribbean.
12UTC GFS 00Hours
Through 30 hours, there is one major note in the GFS. The GFS shows the Southwest Caribbean low as the strongest low and the low from which any tropical system would form.
1375. Patrap
The Models are now in the Transitional Phase ..and the NWS even Mentions that here.

Regarding model generation of tropical low from western Caribbean
Sea next week...the models continue to flip-flop on this solution
with GFS now showing some energy meandering over Yucatan Peninsula
while a separate low peels off and deepens while moving into the
Florida Peninsula next week. European model (ecmwf) shows a similar split but then
decays both circulations rather quickly with little fanfare. This
appears to be the start of a season of model idiosyncracies in the
tropical latitudes of the model domain. These solutions...given
the distance in time...are being discounted beyond Monday.
1377. Patrap
More from wunderblogger quasigeostropic here, Link
Michfan....dadgummit...that's why I come here....to learn stuff....thanks....
I bet by 48 we will be discussing where this low will go and whether its going to be a tropical storm (be it week or moderate)
lol aren't we just as nuts for watching them all damn day? lol
1381. franck
ricderr...I want to do that.
Thanks for that link Patrap. I saved it to my Favorites so that I can read that entire entry later on.
1372.
thanks Michfan.
RAMSDIS IR3 WV LOOP

Plenty of dry air still.
The 12UTC GFS drops the low at 78 hours out. Wonder if that will be all she wrote for the system forecasted by the GFS.
1387. ATS3
GOOD DAY ENJOYED READING THE POSTS THIS AM
Morning All -
Anything exiting Brewing - or are Models Predicting Willy-Nilly?

: )
Ok. I haven't checked the blog since early last evening and can someone just give me a real quick synopsis about our little Storm and the models? It would be much appreciated. Thanks.

Jesse
1392. IKE
1386. cchsweatherman 11:04 AM CDT on May 27, 2008
The 12UTC GFS drops the low at 78 hours out. Wonder if that will be all she wrote for the system forecasted by the GFS.


Look again at 108 hours.
After looking at the 12z GFS model run i think overall it may have a better handle on what currently takeing place down there.As i mentioned earlier there appears after looking at some visibles that 2 low pressure centers may indeed be forming one north of panama and the other in the e-pac.There is a good floater now in the region were you can view a good close up of the area.

Here is a view of the area.



Go HERE for RAMSDIS floaters.
1394. Michfan
GFS picks it back up at the 102 mark.
Looks like the CMC agrees with the GFS -
Gets a little something going down on the Yuc Late in the week.
1396. IKE
I see the 2 lows too.
1373. cchsweatherman 10:41 AM CDT on May 27, 2008
OK...so does this mean I was right when I said we would have something form before the end of May? Either way...I hope this is not another signal of a busy season this year....
1398. Michfan
Nothing has really formed yet. We just have possibilities for development at the moment. I wouldn't declare that till we at the very least have an Invest.


God we need Ascat....

but it just didn't cover over it...
1400. Michfan
GFS is still forecasting the low to cross the Yucatan starting on Day 5 and emerging on Day 6. It is also still forecasting a strong Bermuda high at 1028mb to push it on a westward solution.

Mich fan - If the northern low develops...
can it make it into the gulf?
1402. nash28
Waiting for the 12z NOGAPS.
1403. nash28
Michfan- Could you shrink down your image a bit? It stretches the blog. Thanks.
1402 Nash when will that be out?
1406. IKE
The GFS, on the 12Z run, keeps it down around the Yucatan through 168 hours....
Pretty strong ridge to its north.
The GFS, on the 12Z run, keeps it down around the Yucatan through 168 hours....

It does the Hokey Pokie and shakes it all about...
Did we have all this to look at this early last season? I thought we started watching things a bit later...
1411. IKE
1408. tornadofan 11:37 AM CDT on May 27, 2008
The GFS, on the 12Z run, keeps it down around the Yucatan through 168 hours....

It does the Hokey Pokie and shakes it all about...


It does a twist and shout with it. lol.
AWeatherLover the NOGAPS model is run four times daily 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z.
good day everyone.

Not much has changed overnight by the looks of things. Visible loops suggest two areas of low pressure, one near 8N 88W and the other near 12N 81W.

The area in the EPAC seems to be the strongest of the two at this time and that view is supported by the 850mb vorticity for the region. No doubt high shear in the Caribbean is holding back development just to the N of Panama and the West and NW winds that were evident at Bocas del Toro yesterday afternoon are no longer present.

Very slow development in the S Caribbean is the norm for this time of year and one would look for sustained and deep convection over several days before any appreciable development is likely to occur.

The EPAC is, however, typically more active now than the Caribbean and the odds are that the area near 88W will probably win out over the S Caribbean IF anything does develop
Did we have all this to look at this early last season? I thought we started watching things a bit later...


At this time last year, some posters here were already comparing the pre-Barry blob to hurricane Wilma of 2005.

Looks like a hostile environment to me-high shear & dry air to the north of the sw caribbean.
1416. pottery
Hi there Kman.
Some interesting features in the Trop. Atl as well.
I am wondering if the Atl might not produce a disturbance, before anywhere else in the next week or so.
The race is on.........
1414. StormHype 11:44 AM CDT on May 27, 2008
1413. kmanislander 11:42 AM CDT on May 27, 2008
Thanks
1418. nash28
Let's not forget what Barry had to deal with last year. First off, it traversed through shear ranging from 40-50kts. Wonder why it was a very dry TS? Because dry air was dominant over the GOMEX at that time. The reason Barry formed and maintained was due to the ULH that moved in tandem with the system protecting it from the destructive shear.

My point is that last year we saw a few examples of systems that had no logical business forming that DID form.
1419. nash28
Because of this, I come to expect the unexpected.
Does anyone remember the system last year that had the circulation on one side of so fla and it had reformed to the other side by the next morning? I went through the archive yesterday, but couldn't seem to locate it.

Thanks
Comment on this yall

LOL, Pottery, I'm thinking the same thing!
12z GFS brings what looks like a good amount of moisture towards S.E. florida.Maybe a weak TS on this run.
1424. nash28
Hey, the surest way to get development is for Dr. Masters to go on vacation:-)

Happens every time he does that.
My point is that last year we saw a few examples of systems that had no logical business forming that DID form.


Wasn't Barry a Sub-TS? I don't remember. But that would explain it.
1426. tillou
Anyone noticed the huge ULL Low in the central-eastern ATL? Not to mention the smaller one centered around Bermuda?

O well for a Bermuda high, huh?
1423. That'd be perfect - depression or weak TS. Dump some needed rainfall.
1428. nash28
If I am not mistaken, Barry was a Baroclinic system.
1429. Michfan
Pretty much Nash. We need to invent the Masters Box.

Dates of Dr Master's Vacation = Highest probability for cyclone development.

Noname if a low does in fact form it has alot to contend with before it can. Dry air and wind shear are currently its way.
1430. nash28
What it needs is a ULH to park over it.
Hey guys. As someone else said, doesn't look like much has changed. Just wait and see. Getcha popcorn ready.
1433. cdo
I predict the first tropical storm will form early July, maybe a TD in June though.
12z GFS brings what looks like a good amount of moisture towards S.E. florida.Maybe a weak TS on this run.

Yeah, the more sure thing, if any, from the recent GFS runs is that FL seabreeze storms finally start to kick off by the weekend. This dry air made for a very comfortable holdiay weeekend, but it's hard on the lawn!


Hi Pottery

The Atl is too hostile this time of year to be of much interest other than to see how the progression of waves is looking as a possible downstream signal for the activity level of the CV season.

My focus until mid July is the Caribbean South of 15 degrees
Many people have stated that there is no surface low associated with that disturbance in the SW Caribbean, but satellite imagery say otherwise. It looks like a fairly well-established, well-defined surface low 456. Too bad ASCAT missed the area and QuikSCAT is having problems or else we would have a far better idea on what may be brewing in the Southwest Caribbean.
1440. pottery
456, comment on this yall........

Interesting feature for sure. Being sheared from south westerlies, that are bringing in moisture from Pacific and over Columbia. The shear is the key in my opinion here, and is serving to raise moisture levels, around the feature.
The 2 trop. waves east of it will also add moisture when they get there.

The shear will need to slack off considerably, to see any organisation of this feature.
IMHO.
1441. Michfan
1435. MocDasters 11:57 AM CDT on May 27, 2008 Hide this comment.
For those that say put up or shut up may I suggest you enter your tropical synopsis here.


Don't fall for it!
1442. DocBen
Maybe we have TWO Invests? One each in the Carib and the EPAC? Can that big mess split that way?
1420. zoomiami 12:50 PM AST on May 27, 2008
Does anyone remember the system last year that had the circulation on one side of so fla and it had reformed to the other side by the next morning? I went through the archive yesterday, but couldn't seem to locate it.

Thanks



I remember that system but don't remember what month it was in either. it split in two!
1444. Patrap
quikSCAT Passes,ascending, and descending, Link
1445. pottery
OK Kman.
CCHS

Trying to determine whether a surface low exists just by the satellite prersentation is very difficult as a mid level low can give much the same visual appearance, particularly when we have, at best, a very weak low.

I would want to see surface obs confirm a low N of Panama before accepting the presence of one just by the sat images we now have. In fact, even the 850 mb vorticity is very weak suggesting no surface low at this time
1447. Patrap
Zoomed and enlarged Link
Patrap, notice the time tags at the bottom of the image. That data was from 0:07 UTC, meaning about 15 hours ago.
1451. Michfan
Now now JP :P
Out for lunch

Will check back later
NEW BLOG!!!
Thanks JP, you know how it is when you start thinking about something and just can't find it!

I think there were a lot of similarities between that situation and this one. What does stick out it the fact that it didn't do what everyone thought it would.

Hi Gamma - how have you been?
What is Ascat? I'm familiar with quikscat imagery... Are they similar? Thanks, still trying to learn as much as I can.
1438. cchsweatherman 12:58 PM AST on May 27, 2008

While QuikSCAT and ASCAT are rather useless right now....surface obsevervations indicate a circulation is being felt at the surface based on wind shifts...Its weak but its there. However, these observations are not detecting the full extent of the circulation. Products from CIMSS and satellite imagery show its larger than perceived here.

BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW PRES NEAR OR OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NW FRI AND SAT INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

From NWS...but have winds topping out at 25 knots, so maybe just a squally system. I don't see shear disappearing, in fact it looks like a shortwave dropping in from the north.