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Keys residents: get out tonight, or wake up early Monday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:48 AM GMT on September 19, 2005

Florida Keys residents should seriously consider evacuating tonight. If you decide not to, check on Rita's forecasted strength early Monday morning, after the 5am NHC advisory is out. Think about evacuating then.

After reading the 11pm NHC discussion, which reported that the 67 knot winds measured by the Hurricane Hunters was not representative of the general winds in Rita, I am a little less concerned that Rita will intensify to a major Category 3 hurricane as it passes through the Keys Monday night or Tuesday morning. Also, the cloud tops in Rita have warmed a bit in the past few hours, and it appears that Rita is taking a breather from her recent intensification burst.

Still, I don't like what I see. The hurricane hunters found a 40% complete eyewall has formed. The upper level outflow is excellent on the north side, and the storm is over warm 30 - 31C water. I'd give it a 5% chance that Rita will be a Category 3 hurricane passing through the Keys. If I lived in the Keys, I would think real hard about leaving, just in case that 5% chance verifies. The sudden intensification tonight happened the face of about 10 knots of shear, which one can see impacting the SW side of the storm on satellite imagery. If the shear goes to less than 5 knots, which is expected to happen by Tuesday, Rita will intensify very rapidly. Rita will probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane when it moves through the Keys Monday night. The Keys can handle a Category 2 hurricane--barely.

The Keys take a full 72 hours to evacuate, and now that New Orleans has been taken out by Katrina, the Keys represent the number one most vulnerable area in the U.S. for serious loss of life from a hurricane strike. Even though the evacuation order has already been given for visitors and tourists, not everyone will be able to make it out if Rita suddenly intensifies tomorrow to a Category 3 status.

The nighmare scenario is what happened during the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which intensified from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds to a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds in just 42 hours as it approached the Keys. Over 400 Keys residents died in the ensuing disaster.

So, if you live in the Keys, get your bag packed. Wake up early tomorrow, and check out the 5am advisory. If Rita is a hurricane by then, consider hitting the road early. But if the roads are totally jammed, it's probably better to ride it out in a sturdy shelter rather than be caught on the 7-Mile Bridge in a hurricane.

While the Keys are likely to escape with a hard but bearable hit from a strengthening Category 1 or 2 hurricane, the Gulf Coast will not be so lucky. There is nothing in the long-range forecast that I can see that will prevent Rita from intensifying into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. The entire stretch of coast from 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas to New Orleans is at risk--no one can say with any confidence where Rita will hit this far in advance. Texas is at the highest risk, though, and needs to watch Rita the most carefully.

Philippe
As for Philippe--which is now a hurricane--we do not need to be concerned with him for at least five days, and probably never. The odds are over 90% that Phillipe will stay out to sea and not affect any land areas except Bermuda.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Since this storm moved fatrher noth than expected, do you see a continuation of this trend? The discussion said the high pressure was weaker than thought. I'm wondering if Rita will come closer to where I am at
wpbfl, A lot will be told when the GFDL model comes out at 2AM. The TPC guidance shifted North earlier tonight, and if the major guidance does, then we will have something more to worry about.
cat3 over the keys
Lefty and 79: are you in agreement with this comment from NHC 11pm... if so, is a large shift possible (e.g., one that has it coming into miami or broward?)

THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.
Is it reasonable to assume the faster Rita goes the less threat to New Orleans will be...as she won't have as much time to turn North after passing the Keys? It looks like the storm has a pretty strong steering current below the ridge.
Is it just me or does it look like the center is reforming to the southeast of where it was?
The center of Rita is not reforming to the southeast but rather that is just another giant blob of convection well away from the center.
once again as i am tired of explaining this over and over again. cat3 over the keys
i dunno hawke i been thinking the same thing and we won;t know until we get some recon and i don't know if there will be another recon till tomm morning
If I lived in the Keys I would be on my way out of there as soon as possible. Don't be stubborn and rough it out. Pack your bags and split the scene!!!!!!!
Good, I can drink another beer.
hey 79. the new gfs is mixed with days from the last gfs riun but thru 3-4 days of this new run she tunrs her to la
hawke we won;t know until the sune comes up and we have visible back or there is a recon
So funny, I go to work 10 hours ago and Lefty is saying cat 3 over keys. I come back 10 hours later and he is saying the same thing. Dude you need to write a program that automatically posts "cat 3 over keys" everytime your name is mentioned in this threat. Would save you a lot of time and you could really enjoy your football. I respect your opinion but I say cat 2.
Locally (Biloxi), I'm hearing about cooler temps on Thursday or Friday. I'm a newbie at this but wouldn't that mean a front is coming down and wouldn't that therefore suggest a weakening in the High Pressure currently in place. Are we seeing a possible copy-cat of Katrina? This looks all to familiar.
tv whats up man. hey a strong cat 2 is almost a cat3 but where over the keys lol
TVwxman I asked the night watchman at the Mall and he said Cat 3 as well. I think you are wrong.
Anybody have a link to a satellite image of Rita?
here u go. rita is under floater 1


Link
I don't know dude. I've been waiting all day for this darn anticyclone to steer her farther south. I guess that upper trof is slow to move. I'm actually thinking weak 2 close to Islamorada/Marathon key. But really would not be suprised to see the thing finally curve south. halfway between cuba and fla.
In the keys a 2 or 3 would be bad. Shouldn't change anybodies mind if they are in favor of leaving (living).
Whats wrong Hawk? You are not so quick to dispute when Lefty says it may be so.
I can definitely see Rita becoming a Category 5, a la Katrina, in the Gulf!
Cat 3 is definetely possible and the night watchman probably knows about as much as I. Intensification is still the thing least understood in tropical formation. I'm the first to admit that I don't know for sure.
yeah lefty, I do not like the North shift in the 3+ day range for the new GFS run. I hadnt seen that far out yet. Was watching tv
79 she is headed right for la lol. i want to see the gfdl so bad now
Hey crazy, where do you get your information?
I did have a professor once who derived an equation for maximum wind potential based on thermodynamic variables. Darn I think I fell asleep during that lecture!
Yeah Lefty, the GFS site has just failed to only show the new images instead opting to give us the new ones throw together with the old ones so we get a screwy loop. I am just about ready to hit the sack because there is no new recon and there is no satellite available for a while. Besides the lousy blackout period, whose dumb idea was it to order 10 hours of darkness overnight during peak hurricane season? I really miss the visible loop when it's not available.
lol tv uhh cat3 over the keys lol
Lefty,

You got the link to the most current GFS? Mine has not been updated. Thanks in advance.
What are the odds of Rita curving north and hitting LA like Katrina?
lefty, I will be waiting up for that GFDL for sure.
its 2 hrs and its due to the earth blocking the sun from the solar pwered satelites
Well by late tomorrow we will at least be able to get some good radar data.

Hey lefty? Cat 3 over Keys?
It's my guess based on past trends, SST's, shear and conditions. The Gulf is a magnet for storm development...I think Rita will explode once she hits it. I only see a Category 2 storm in the Keys, but things can change really fast. As for Philippe, I think he will be a major hurricane as well (Cat 3 or 4) but a fish-spinner.
FLpanhandle: Link
this is the one i use. now the dates have not been changed but if u look at the botton after u clikc the link u can see the first 3-4 days are the new run and as the new run comes out u will see more of it. the whole run should be done in 15-30 mins


Link
I thought someone said Bush was causing these blackouts - damn that bowl is heavy
I am going to run myself to sleep. I will catch up with the lastest in the morning!
yeah tv radar will be nice but u know cat3 over the keys lol
Sometimes I wish a category 5 hurricane would hit State College,PA (AKA Accu-Weather) but leave Penn State alone.
:) Lefty, by the "10 hours of darkness" remark, I meant the fact it is dark outside all night. The satellite blackout period has actually gotten larger in the last couple weeks. It was 0400 UTC to 0600 UTC, now it is 0330 UTC to 0645 UTC.
Sorry I hope I didn't offend anyone but the things they say/do sometimes...
Yes but longer days = less heating = cooler oceans = less headaches.
i feel ya hawke oh yeah cat3 over the keys ;-)
oops. i meant lonnger nights. see what i mean about the headaches.
fox news just said 2 times in a row that hurricane watches are posted for the keys. So the hot chick who got it wrong tossed to the met/broadcaster who said watch as well. Is this thing taped?
Lefty,

If the center has reformed further to the SE along with some of the models starting to show a northward component late in the forecast, what are your thoughts about the danger to the central gulf coast? If the center has moved further east the westward movement will not occur as fast. Your thoughts?
tv its taped.

flp i dunno i feel anywhere from the florida panhandle to mexico. the whole gulf.
latest recon on philippe look at the temp differenc inside and outside the eye

518
URNT12 KNHC 190416
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/03:51:00Z
B. 16 deg 33 min N
055 deg 53 min W
C. 700 mb 3034 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 182 deg 067 kt
G. 082 deg 007 nm
H. EXTRAP 988 mb
I. 7 C/ 3047 m
J. 16 C/ 3044 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E15/25/15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 70 KT SE QUAD 02:15:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
Dude,are you sure? That seems extremely odd to me. Most major networks are 24/7. But I rarely watch fox
i was mad case right after katrina when the levy broke only cnn was still live. fox and msnb were taped so i am sure it is taped
Concerned. In the Destin area and getting ready to go on a business trip. Be back Thursday night. May have to come back early.
Hey everyone - quick question.....you all seem really aware of Rita....and I'm just getting my feet wet (no pun intended) with this website...but I live in Orlando, FL...any chance I should be worried about Rita? Thanks.
Ok, here's what I think...

I think Rita is at least 6 days away from striking anywhere along the Gulf Coast (exception of extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys). Therefore, making predictions on where mainland landfall would take place is anyone's guess -- just note it will be along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico; somewhere. As for intensity -- it will be somewhere between an open tropical wave and a major category 5 hurricane.

The point? There is no reason staying up late for the next 6 nights waiting for every belch, hiccup, yawn, sneeze, fart, etc. from the NHC, Recon, Model Data, or satellite pictures (unless of course you are in the Keys or extreme southern Florida).

Get some sleep these first few days -- come Wednesday things will begin to get much more interesting. It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict and frankly, NO ONE knows where this thing is going.

Things are going to get interesting midweek and there will be plenty of time to hypothesize the track of Rita. I am in the Galveston area and the mood is upbeat, like nothing is going on (although some tracks have shifted to our area). There is plenty of time for headaches around Wednesday. No need to sound the crisis klaxons this early for anywhere (again, exception of Florida).

Goodnight all, we'll see everyone during the upcomming week.
Great, I can see it now.
An old conservative type senile couple wakes up to turn on fox news to decide if they should evacuate.
"No honey, it's only a watch"
I know the High is supposed to take it there, but climatologically speaking, isn't it unlikely that a hurricane could get into the western gulf this late in the season from where Rita is starting?
in orlando ur only worries will be the outer rainbands but thats it. just keep watching but i am pretty sure cat 3 over the keys
not at all.
Climatology = nothing this year. Just look at the clps model for the last 2 days
the night watchman said it is called faux news
No joke.
This night watchman seems pretty wise.
wxwatcher

someof us liketo watch the storms so whats it to u if we want to stay up late pawning over data. juts cause don;t want to doesn;t mean u have to damn man



also climetology is good but is not a rule. anything can happen thats the point
wxwatcher:

We realize that but it's an obsession...and obsessions don't make much sense right? :o)

My husband doesn't complain because hurricane season is during football season...I don't complain about his football and he doesn't complain about my obsession! :o)

But at least I found out that the terror alert was elevated today. They actually still show this on their crawl.
tv whats that the night watchman said oh i remebr

cat3 over the keys
TVwxman,

You got a problem with conservatives? As far as news you should get it from several different sources so you can filter out the BS.
flp thats why i watch them all. i like lou dobbs and bill oreily. they both have points i like
Yeah I know. I'm in the biz and I do understand journalistic ethics. And thank goodness for fox news, for I can sleep better tonight knowing that the terror alert is only elevated.
well i t my duct tape and plactic so i am good


cat3 over thekeys
Lefty:

I sure hope you are wrong. I love Key West and it would really suck to have 2 of the coolest places in America (New Orleans and Key West) devastated by hurricanes within the same month.
Any speculation on cat 4-5?
I do like Foxnews but i was irritated that they did not give much coverage to the MS gulf coast. I went shortly after the storm to MS and it was devastated. You didn't get that from Foxnews the first few days. MSNBC was much better.
I see that long hours helping us figure out what Rita is going to do has rendered Lefty into somekind of infinite loop. :) This brain of mine is getting ready for some alpha-waves. Hope everyone is safe, have a good night be interested to what Rita looks like in the morning.
the gfs is fully out and brings rita into galveston.
lefty,

I'm not trying to demean anyone on here who has a passion for watching this storm; I watched Emily for a week and regularly posted on here (to the point where I was exhausted). The point I'm trying to make is, no one can say for sure where this thing is going much less the intensity. Yes, it is going to go through center/eyewall replacement cycles, it's going to wobble to the north, then to the south, it's going to strenghthen rapidly then go on a 'wane' and take a breather. There's not much sense in calling a hurricane play by play, minute by minute but rather the long-term trend. That is going to be a gradual strenthening and a westerly track through the next 4 days. That's all I'm getting at. Hey, I like reading everyone's opinion and I'm glad you like doing what you do... BTW: I'm saying it's not going to be a cat 3 over the Keys :).

And for the terror alert -- It should be "high" on the basis that Rita is going to cause terror for folks somewhere along the Gulf coast...
Progressing to delta-waves.......zzzzzzzz
pc all i do is predcit them. now wishing anything.


flp yeah i watched all of them durring katrina but now its been mostly cnn as anderson cooper has been putting tears in my eyes. but i use picture in picture so it was easy to see what was on fox or cnn at the same time
yeah wx thats what i have been saying all day. thats why my focus is on the first 2-3 days and thats florida.


cat3 over the keys lol :-)
Lefty - how the heck are you getting that info? I looked at the GF whatever link you posted earlier and all I saw was a bunch of numbers. Where are those wonderful graphics?
boy there is a lot of preaching on this board. It's a friggin blog guys. Take it for what its worth. How is lefty's mention of the 0Z run of the GFS a problem? It is what it is-he didn't solve the partial differential equations for the run.

And my sarcasm for the terror alert, I just had no idea they still used it. And my point was merely that I think fox news is gravely irresponsible for reporting outdated watch/warnings. Current advisories will save more lives than a dammned terror alert.

Lefty, Cat 3 over the Keys?
145mph between Mexico/Texas border and Galveston
sorry thats classified info
hers a link to the gfs model run. sorry i should have just given u this link instead.




Link
I think we need a 'real-time' chat room on this site.....

Whadda yall think??
You would think that with all the money spent to put NOAA data buoys in the caribbean and east of the Antilles we could put a long range RADAR in the Bahamas for a fraction of the cost.
cat3 over the keys
When is the next GFDL run out?
leftyy420 what do you mean by classified info?
there is a chat room. it sucks. to caotic and u miss most of whats said
I seriously can not believe we are talking about another possible storm in the gulf and that the florida panhandle west to texas could be a target. You guys have no idea how much we do not need this right now (or for that matter for many years) we are battered and torn apart and a tropical storm would be bad news for us let alone the possibility of a cat 2 or higher.
This is my first post here, but I've been reading this blog for some time...

On to what i've been watching. Eariler today I've noticed that the dry air over flordia (im assuming this is the trough they are talking about) has been getting weaker, most air from rita and from the north east has been pressing on both sides.
Atlantic Water Vapor Loop shows it noticably. What happens if the dry air is cut in two in the next 24/48 hours, I would expect a much stronger NW movement in the storm, that may take it over more of FL than expected, then again I dont have enough experiance in viewing these types of things.

Here it looks like a large amount of water vapor is about to be pushed in to the atlantic, if that burst of water vapor heads southeast when it reaches the atlantic with low wind shear, things could get really interesting down there.

Any Comments?
gfdl should be out in 30 mins to an hr
Easy TVwxman, you can find examples of irresponsibility on any of the networks. No need to single out FOX.
96. iyou
TV- This is a warm, fuzzy night compared to others ;-)
Thanks, lefty that's much better - I just have to say holy crud! Too close for comfort for me! I'm in Clear Lake Texas, just 35 miles north of Galveston. Hope that changes!
um the dry air had nothing to do with the ridge, that was dry air being sent south by the rotaion around the ridge.just becasue it moistened up doesn't mean anythign about the ridge. she will move wnw or w over the keys. now how strong that debatable but i say cat 3
native u should make pans now just to be safe
Jeez I hate to see the bad nights. You are very right about other networks as well. I just can't believe that they would tape weather info with so much interest to millions of people. I'm a broadcast meteorologist and believe you me, I could never get away with that nor would I wan't to. It's simply wrong. It's not like FOX is some underfunded 3'rd place struggling network. They can afford to keep a met there 24/7 during such events. There are mandatory evacs in one of the most intoxicated tourist towns, and they're taping. Sorry. Can't get over that.
NativeTx....what part of Clear Lake? Mom lives on El Dorado. I live in the area; at work in Deer Park right now.

We sure don't need Rita coming this way.
Do the model runs not show the further development of possible TD#19 because there is no RECON data for it, or because the models are predicting that it will never become more than a wave?
leftyy,

I know that 98% of people are saying there is a high chance that Philippe staying out to sea. Are there any chances this could change or is it definate. If it does change, when at the earliest and who would it threat?

- C
Yep - I'm seriously going to have to think about this - 4 kids, 2 dogs, 3 cats and a husband who, even after Katrina, says he ain't leaving. And now we have these "mandatory" evacuations and planned evacuation routes. I've been saying that if one ever looks to come here I wouldn't wait for the evac. order - that's just going to be a cluster you-know-what, especially now that we have an exter 250,000 around the city.
..............hELLO aLL..............

I'm trying to get a location where all of our blogers live want to then make a directory that I will post on my blog
just looking for city (and maybe location in that city if it is large) and state..no other info needed or wanted..Thanks to all who will participate in this endevor..
tks...please make post on the first thread of my blog.
would like to include all that live outside of the states
also..will be interesting to see how wide spread our blogers are in the world..

please, if you can give the gift of life (blood),please contact your local Red Cross and make an appointment..the pint of blood you give my save 3 lives..and blood is really needed in the gulf coast..they lost their supply
of blood because of Katrina..and donors due to displacement..
boried - I live off El Dorado in Sterling Knoll subdivision! Small world!
TVwxman,

I agree with everything you say and all the networks should have a met with 24 hour updates. You will not get any arguement here.
will don't worry boutmodels as they rarely forma cyclone befor one is about to form. no modelsform 18 befor she was practically a depression
Good thinking. Don't wait! Leave when those mandatory evacs are issued. The sooner you go, the less trouble you'll have.
dub, till it turn out to sea theres a chance and the nhc has little confidence right now for either solution and who well thats 10 days away at best and i can't know that nor woul;d any one else.
Yeah FlPanhandle! Do you live in the panhandle? If so, I'm sorry man you guys deserve like a 200 year break.
It's early Monday morning; the networks never have anyone live at this time. Even WFOR in Miami isn't starting live coverage until 4 AM.
Mom's house is close to the golf course....wife and I live in Baytown; originally from Galveston.

We sat through Alicia at Mom and Dad's house, and I guess we'll do the same to help Mom out if Rita comes this way.
And yes, it is a small world!
The difference is the other networks (aka WFOR) aren't broadcasting old info. They just shut off. Fox is actaully running outdated weather hits with innacurate info.
Lived off I-10 during Alicia. I'm not sure about staying here or not - I don't think we would flood - My house is up pretty good. But, there was an interesting article in the Galveston Daily News after Katrina hit about what that storm would have done if it had hit Galveston. Said that the everything south of Bay Brook Mall would have been underwater. That certainly put a little different perspective on it for me.
I agree that there is no need for wall-to-wall coverage yet. But at least provide current info.
New GFDL is coming out right now.. hit refresh on this link page in a minute or two: Link
Unfortunately, all the networks are bad about running old info as filler this time of night. Radio stations are even worse, IMHO. I agree; it's dangerous to do it with weather info.
Regarding Fox News I am wearing a T-shirt that says Faux News--we distort, you comply.

About Galveston, I know that the land around New Orleans is sinking about 3 feet per century as the gulf coast buckles under the weight of the Mississippi delta and as the sediment gradually compacts. In 1000 AD Lake Ponchartrain was dry land, by 1200 it was tree swamps, and after 1290 (+/- 10 years) it began to open up as a lake, possibly after a hurricane. Does anyone know if Galveston is rising or staying steady or falling?

I know about the huge effort made after 1900 to raise and wall in the island, and that the walls were raised after hurricane Carla. But the walls have not been extended or raised since 1962. Just curious if the land is falling in Galveston, and whether that might make it more vulnerable to a Cat3/4 now compared with 30 or 40 years ago.


Here is a link about the Mississippi Delta over the last several thousand years. http://www.naturalhistorymag.com/master.html?http://www.naturalhistorymag.com/0205/0205_feature2_lowres.html
All good points.

3 things to say before I crash

1) You guys should rent the movie "The War on Journalism" according to Rupert Murdoch

2) In all seriousness. What is Bologna? I just saw an ad for Oscar Meyer and I never thought about what bologna was.

3) Residents of the keys-godspeed and get out soon! Only 1 2 lane highway.

p.s. lefty, cat 3 key's?
wow 79 u see that gfdl. looks like the keys. cat 3 over the keys and it looks like galvenston on the second landfall
yeah tv cat 3 over the keys lol good night man
I live in the Fort Walton Beach/Destin area. We are sick of the storms. This area went from 75 (Eloise) to 95 (Erin, Opal) without a hurricane. I guess its payback time now. Also had family in Ocean Springs, MS that I took supplies over for. Believe me Katrina was 5X worse than Camille. Camille moved whole sections of the OS/Biloxi bridge with a 20 Ft stormsurge and Katrina brought it down with a 30Ft. The house I am in now would probably be under 12 to 14 ft of water with the same type storm. It is time to move because it will happen sooner or later with this increased activity.
im out
AM I READING THIS RIGHT THE GFDL SAY THIS

36 23.8 80.1 271./12.6

IF THAT IS TRUE IT HAS MOVED NORTH
WFOR is supposed to have live cut ins; but are they even on the air?...WPLG (ABC10) has a crawl. I guess WTVJ has weather plus. FOX NEWS replays primetime shows for west coast. Their repeats beat CNN's live stuff...until that changes, FNC will roll the tape
Well I don't understand all those numbers. Got to go to bed now. I work at JSC (Johnson Space Center). I will be interesting to see how they handle this, considering what just happened at Stennis and Michoud. My cousin worked at JSC when Alicia hit and she said they only let them go home like 4 hours before it hit. Hope they've learned some lessons since then.
fl the move north still tracks south of the keys. click on the wu ground map to see the visual representation
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
recon almost to rita. new vortex out in 30 mins to an hour
2am advisory

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
I promise this is my last post.

ralph, i'm all for prime time in the west. i used to live in AZ. But at least keep a friggin met in the studio and do some live cut-ins. Or at least don't roll the weather re-runs. The info is flat-out wrong! The packages (reports)they did all day are still accurate, but the watch/warnings are not!

I'm still waiting to find out what Bologna is.
tv sandwich meat eaten by poor kids. pretty good fried with some eggs lol
Okay I lied-my last post.

I know what bolgna is,but what kind of meat is it? Sausage,beef,chicken?

Good 2 am advisory.
At least I won't get called in in 3 hours to break-in live.
Bologna sausage, yum, gotta love the unknown ground up animal parts!
137. iyou
TV - faux beef!
That's disgusting.
Basically mystery meat.

"Good night sweet prince, and flights of angels sing thee to thy rest"
(William Shakespear-Hamlet)
another katrina? looks like it to me. quiet in the gulf got the water hot before katrina. quiet in the gulf since katrina and the water's hot once again. this doesn't look good.
Wow I had yet to see this site with videos of Katrina's Landfall (linked from wunderground).


Check out the videos and I'm SURE you'll get out of the way of a major hurricane when the time comes.
141. Manny
The total water heat content is not as high as before Katrina. I don't think it could support a cat 4 or above.
many, it can support a fast moving vat 4 or 5 but not a low moving cat4 or 5
Not sure about subsidence on the island, but it is not "walled in".

A seawall on the gulf side of the island was built originally that extended from the east end to 61st St. After Carla it was extended west another 30 blocks or so. The island slopes back down behind the seawall and Seawall Blvd. to just a few feet above sea level. The bay (NW) side of the island is not much above sea level, and the island west of the seawall isn't either. Most of the west end is what was once just marsh that cattle were run in from behind the dunes across to West Galv. Bay. Much of the area past Jamaica Beach and Pirates Beach is now developed, extending almost all the way to San Luis Pass.

There are three ways off the island; the causeway for I-45 heading to Houston, which has construction there with new bridges being built, the two lane bridge over San Luis Pass to Freeport/Surfside, and the Bolivar Ferry. The ferry shuts down once tides get a few feet above normal, and the Bolivar Peninsula receives a lot of coastal flooding with just a few extra feet of water.

The island would still get a lot of flooding from the bay even if water didn't come over the seawall other than waves and spray. Also flooding from rain.

I believe the biggest impact on Galv. now compared to 30/40 yrs. ago would be the much higher damage total from a major storm due to development on the west end of the island.

There's also much more all around the Galv. Bay complex to be damaged if a major storm struck today, but a lot of what would happen would depend on a direct hit vs. east side vs. west side of the storm center.
I heard some chatter that the satellites are temporarily blacked out because of the recent solar flares...anyone hear this?

All the sites I go to are 3 hours old...
Seems to me that the upper low in the western carribean is going to help Rita stay on a more wnw heading , a little right of the forecast track , and the high pressure ridge that was going to reform north of her may be delayed a bit.
every night the satelites shut down for around 4 hrs due to the earth blocking the sun so as the satelites are solared power they have to shut down
weathersink a wnw track is hwat is forcasted and thna a western track. she will pass thru the straights of florida and over the keys
even the GOES satellites @ 22000 miles away from the earth??
i agree , a westward turn is forecast as the ridge is supposed to rebuild over fla , but I have a feeling this may be delayed by a day which would place it closer to the upper keys , if not the mainland .. just a hunch
Hello all:

(not going to be here long, just wanted to add my 2 cents)

Maybe its just me, but if you look at the latest water vapor loop, Rita just sucked up that patch of thunderstorms to her south. Like a giant vacuum.

I think she'll be hard pressed to get to cat 3 for the keys lefty, but if this continues she'll definately get winds at or above 100mph.

And I hate to be the voice of doom, but I will be. The long range forecast shows a possibility of Rita ending up Texas, maybe near Galveston (the star on the map). And what is just inland from Galveston? That would be Houston, where a large number of the evacuees from New Orleans are now being sheltered.

Not to mention, while the water in gulf overall is not nearly as potent as it would be this time of the year (Katrina), the waters near the Texas coast line are very warm. A landfall in this area would mean that the storm could at the least hold her intensity during impact, if not strengthen. Steve Gregory's blog has a good graphic for that.
weatherskink-

It doesn't matter how far away the sattelite is from the earth, when the earth passes between the sun and the sat, its in a shadow, and has not power.

Remember, this is space, a vacuum...its not like standing in the shadow of a tall building. There is nothing around to reflect the light.

JV
valence it will not be hard at all and the officila forcast is fpr her tp be just under cat 3 strength as she passes the keys so whats 10 mph in strength. she will explode so watch
plus forcast error is 20kts, thats a whole category so in reality she could almost be a 4 but i think a cat 3 is likley given the sst


well, it's one hell of a world .
GOES, like all geosync satellites must be directly over the equator, so they too get shadowed each day. The earth is 8,000 miles wide, the satellite is 22,000 miles up, so it would be in shadow about 3 hours a day give or take (don't feel like working out the trig to give you an exact value).
could we get 6 in 12 months here in sw al.
Anyone in the Keys---GET OUT!!!

This thing is looking ominous! I think tomorrow it's going to explode!
how is it looking ominous? we are blacked out...
what dont make everyone panaic like crazy the way to do this is calm like this this thing could get ugly everyone might mant to think about evacuating or if staying get the nessary supplies to ride it out
scratch that, we are back up
Valence,

If the satellite could center above a point higher than the tropics, it would never be in shadow - always high enough above the ecliptic plain to avoid the shadow. Geosynchronous sats can do this - they orbit with the same period as the earth but don't stay in one place, though I don't know if they can move that far from the equator. Also, the higher the altitude, the shorter the blackout (assuming it remained geosync at the higher altitude).

GOES is geostationary. It moves in sync with the earth and remains over one spot over the equator.
and this everyone stay safe and keep tuned for the latest updates and dont wait till the last min to have a plan ready


NOT THIS AHHHHHHHHH EVERYONE GET OUT NOW WHILE U STILL CAN AHHH
and dont tell them this This thing is looking ominous! I think tomorrow it's going to explode! THAT FRIGHTENS PEOPLE STICK WITH THE FACTS
Interesting to see the newest satellite image compared to 3 or so hours ago... It looks like that westard motion is starting to materialize..
Muffin,

Given the LATEST satellite image, I concur with masta and lefty (to an extent). Rita does indeed look to be on the verge of an explosive intensification -- will it last? who knows.

I must note, you seem to be on the side of 'wait and see'. Then you expect to be plucked off of a roof top while waving a giant sheet ... pretty stupid if you ask me. I'd get out.
wxwatcher Where did you see the latest satelite images.
Here on WU they are still void.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
nasa sigt. it helps to use many sites


Link
new vortex is out on rita


URNT12 KNHC 190704
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/06:48:40Z
B. 22 deg 32 min N
073 deg 54 min W
C. 850 mb 1417 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 195 deg 036 kt
G. 113 deg 043 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 20 C/ 1525 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0318A RITA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 06:35:10 Z
Lefty!, we are both still awake (and I said I wouldn't stay up -- I guess this can be addicting!! :).

Still not sure of the cat 3 and I'm wondering how sure you are as you quit putting it at the end of all of your posts!

It does seem like a WWD movement? Whadda ya think?
k, thx
She hasn't changed much. Following the WNW forecasted track.
that recon puts rthe cenetr at 22.5n 73.9w that would make the cenetr exposed and between the 2 blobs of convection. i don't really feel confident in that center as this was the first pass thru the storm. we will see what the next pass brings
wx i was putting it there to mess with tvwxman i still feel a cat 3 over the keys
oh yes and none of us are pros at thids we are all novices just to let you know including you leftyy
do they only report MAX FL WIND 36 KT?
you seeing those colors on the last image to the south of those blobs? First time we've seen colder cloud tops to the south of the center (if the center is in between those blobs).
yeah but thats thru one quadrant so far and thats the quadrant with out the convection. wait till the next recon vortex and u will see higher winds. pressure down to 999mb so she is stronger
Lefty,

That could be the first indication that the shear is relaxing somewhat. When is that next RECON due out?

(and are you threating someone on here muffin?)
no im not and dont ever make fun of me again
The GOES aren't always in the shadows, only during their eclipse seasons. This is a result of the tilt of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to our orbit with the Sun, and the fact that the satellites are in orbit relative to that axis.

I believe the GOES satellites do have batteries, but that power is probably reserved for things like powering the gyros and other basic operations.

I found a schedule of the 2005 Fall eclipses
dunno. think its an indication the centr has reformed somewhere else but i want to wait for the next vortex. will be out in a couple hours lol
Wow just realized the time. Was comsumed watching storm chaser videos on that site. Man did the time fly... two hours!!

Night guys, see ya tomorrow for sure.
Is that a new center trying to form, roughly 23(+) N 74 W, in between the two main blobs? A few more images after the eclipse should make it clear. If so, represents another wnw jog.
no i doubt the cenetr will reform above 23n and the cenetr location at the last advisory was 23.0 n so ur reading into it wrong. she will still pass over the keys
guygee, between the 2 main blobs is definetly a center and check out the upside down comma (the left blob) and the southern end of it. Looks like it's trying to do a 'wrap-around'. If you compare the system with the old satellite pics, the system, as a whole, is moving west -- arguably slightly north of due-west.
lefty what is the position do u think the new center is...do u think that it has a higher latitude then the old center...if so does this increase the risk for miami?
Lefty- If I was a betting man I would bet with you on the Keys getting a hard hit, still I do not think Miami can relax just yet. I am starting to feel a little safer up here in Brevard county, though.
look at the new model concensus. looks like thru the keys and into texas\



Link
I hope the hell that UKMET is WRONG! That passes it right over my house!
wxwatcher - You are right, maybe a just a little north of due west, but perhaps not as much north as before the eclipse.

-guygee (just keeping on eye to the SE from the barrier island south of Cocoa Beach)
no ido not belive yje cenetr is above 23.0n which is the 2am cenetr position. relax i should have not mentioned anything till the next recon as u guys sit here and grasp at anything to think themodels and the nhc are on crack



the latest gfdl makes her A 943mb cat3 almost cat4 as she passes over the keys


if she passes thru the keys as a cat3-4 miami will see strong cat1 conditions. thats why i have said it 100 times today. i am predicting center movement not impacts. i nevr once said south florida or miami would not be impacted. a hurricane is not a point but a giant system
Steve Gregory's blog also has a SST graphic, and although it is outdated, it shows at least 31 degrees celsius around the island of Andros in the Bahamas. It is her best chance yet of exploding. Lighter shear, very high SSTs. If you still are thinking of getting out of the Keys, don't think, just go!
sry i was asleep and woke up to check on the storm...do u think that the storm will pass south/over/north of key west?

and where are u getting the latest satellite images
lefty..you sound like a broken record.... lol
(just up checking since I could not sleep)
not a point...not a point.. not a point.... LOL
I suppose if the models remain consistent on their current Galveston/Houston forecast until Tuesday night - after it crosses the Florida Straights - then we should start worrying here in southeast TX.
the whole area from the nahams thru the florida straights has tempsof 31cor90-95 degress. the same temps that exploded katrina
the last 5 went over my house..Ivan, Arlene, Cindy, Dennis, right side of Katrina
i am not forcasting a point miami. i can not give u a location i juts know it will not hit the peninsula and travel north of cuba and thru the straights. worse case scenario


from the navy site here is the link

Link
Rita is back on 280 degree wnw coarse. I agree that upper air low in NW Carib is forcing Rita further north of west. Rita, in my opinion, will pass over or just north of Key West as a Cat 2. Also look for NHC to continue to move the future track into Gulf more to the right by 11:00 AM Advisory.
getreal all major models forcast a landfall near galvaston. u think a texas landfall is still out of the question


gfdl ofrcast for a strength close to a cat 4 as she passes the landfall. u think a cat 3is unlikely?
Ok, couple of things...

I do think Rita is on a development cycle here's why:

Check out that left 'upside-down comma' I was talking about earler. Specifically, check out the southern edge of it... moving toward the southern edge of the center.

Meanwhile, check out that feeder band over eastern Cuba.. it appears to be trying to close in on the southern edge of the system.

This thing is trying to close up shop, on a westerly track. Ditto lefty on the not a point quote. And I'm grasping anything out of boredom since I'm awake...
yeah i am ready for bed but i need to wait for the next pass and if i am waiting for that recon i might as well saty for the 5am advisory lol
Max Mayfield, the Big Chief at the NHC, was on FoxNews tonight and stated that he is growing more and more concerned about a possible Rita hit on NOLA. What models does he have access too, that we don't...
Lefty - I do not think the NHC is on crack, but sometimes (rarely?) their models are wrong (dead wrong). Please do not take my comments as challenges, even the 11 PM EST had Cocoa Beach (north of me) at 8% probability. With my exposed location, I need to take even small threats seriously
getreal thats when the models showed the possibility. we have had all majormodelsrun again and they are in cocensus 5 days out. befor we had 2 models going to la and 2 going to texas and 1 going to the bay of campeche. now after the latest runs they all go to texas. that was after mac's statements. check the models urself
getreal, I think everyone is concerned about a NO, LA hit, however, I think he said that based on the situation down there. No concern in the forecast discussion down in NO.
lefty wasnt there supposed to be a noaa jet to test the high pressure...has any data from that come in yet and when will that info go into the models
Yeah sticking with my original forecast track for now. No further west than central La coast. Those same models earier today were calling for Tex-Mex border hit, the "major" models now are shifting slowly north. And the Bam that you have no faith in has had the closest track on Rita so far.
and guygee i am not saying to not be vigilant but u need to check the data and stop pulling things out of them as u see fit. that was my point. i mentioned the cnetr thing as sharing my thoughts and some of u ran wild with it thinking it was another northwards shift when the recon cenetr was way south of the 2am advisory position which is why i said its only half a pass thru the storm and probly not the right cenetr position.
getreal what does the bamm say landfall will be. looks like it moved into the concensus for texas as well. and ofcourse the models would shift 4-5 days out and with each run 12 hr apart the error lessens. now i am not saying ur scenario won't happen but the models are in good agreement and thats something i don't ignore and ur only reason is climitology and thats not hard enough to say the models are off that much which would me they are off all togethr
dang leftyy always thinks hes better then the hurricane center lol did you know that the hurricane center has like 10 times more brains then he does lol
miami i saw no record of a scheduled upper air recon flight. and if there was than it would have been in the 8pm models that are now in good agreement
muffin where did i say i was betetr than the nhc.


they have a noaa upper air flight today and it dpearted at 2am so it will be the first upper air recon
My girlfriend's family decided to ride out Katrina in Biloxi, MS. After loosing contact with them, we decided it was now or never to get ourselves down there to help in any way we could (and I would like to add we beet FEMA to Biloxi). Rita could possibly turn back into that general area. The devestation was extensive with Katrina, Rita would just wash away Katrina's aftermath. Everyone from Texas to Florida should definetely be watching her once she enters the gulf. For all in the Keys and Southern Florida, think very long and hard on whether you would want to be alive and salvage what you took years to build up or if you want to float away with your possessions. I preferably would choose life over material things, but thats just me. Don't want to be all gloom and doom here but I've SEEN the devastation that Katrina brought on the ground in Biloxi. A new saying in the South was born: Camille was a lady, Katrina was a B***H!
that flight data will be used in the 8am models tomm morning
you always say there is something wrong with the nhc like they are all on crack or there models are not right maby we should wipe them out and make you the nhc man id bet you would feel sry for all those dying people then
muffin u need to rereadmy post and than goto bed. i never said that and u owe me an appology. so take the time to calmly reread my posts and if there is something u missunderstand i will help u unerstand it but i neevr said anything was wrong with the models or that the nhc was on crack. so please read them again and more carefully
oh and by the way leftyy go back to middle school and learn how to spell correctly
: leftyy420 at 12:38 AM PDT on September 19, 2005.
no ido not belive yje cenetr is above 23.0n which is the 2am cenetr position. relax i should have not mentioned anything till the next recon as u guys sit here and grasp at anything to think themodels and the nhc are on crack
muffin when u learn to read better will learn better grammar and spelling. is it a deal
Bam came a little south, the other major models came north towards north Tex coast. My point is these models ou leftyy rely so heavily on yesterday (Sun) called for a track nearly due west across the Gulf. We are still talking five days out, and they overall have moved right. The major models will become accurate three days before landfall, usually. Let's see over next two days which way the strike cone moves. I believe it will be right.
muffin i stated others thought the nhc was on crack. reread it slowly and u will see what i meant
"BISSNESS", "muffian", "shure", "wost", "tring", ummm, yeah Muffin, you have room to talk.

At least lefty can put coherent sentences together (even though you do misspell a few words).
getreal if u look at the longterm runs of the major models u would have seen after day 5 whihc is all the wu map shows they all amde a turn north. the gfdl for 2 days turned it into la. now 2 days later the wu mapshowing 5 days shows what the modles showed 7 days out. thats why i am saying it was a shift into agreemnt more than a northward trend. if u go back tomy posts 2 dasy ago i mentioned this already. the gfs goes out 11days the gfdl goes out 7 days and the wu only shows 5
yeah my spelling is bad but i don't miss read what people post than continue to miss readit after they explain what they meant. muffin goto bed as ur losing ur mind. i think anyone who has been in ehre all day knows i been touting the nhc and the models all day as i support themmore than anyone and muffins assumption to the otherwise is just bs
I'm like the models, at first I was in disagreement with lefty, but now I'm starting to concur...

lol
After Rita leaves the Keys... then we can talk with higher certainty about the West Gulf landfall.

But the model consensus over Galveston is impressive. We did not have such an agreement with Katrina.
that last two post by muffinman was uncalled for. Having just personally gone through Katrina, Leftyy and wxwatcher or watching out for the well being of everyone in the Keys.
bek we did 90 hrs out. the modelsneevr moved from the nola area after 90 hrs out. now they were not in any agreement prio to the first landfall assome keep assuming. the gfdl was the best model than and i feelits the best model now. the gfdl call fro a nola area landfall 5 days out
lol that pic is actually kind of funny and if u gotomy blog there a pic of me riding out ophelia in the obx and i sort of look like that lol
oh ok leftyy im done sry i guess it is funny lol
241. iyou
Here, here GetReal! - and I am fed up with the constant interruptions and utter rudeness that Jeff displays and the total lack of respect for his elders discussing this most serious situation.
yeah if u guys are interested i chased ophelia and some of the first pics on my blog. not much yet but i have to get the rest of my film developed
lefty...wat do u think the 5 am advisory is going to say...wat do u think the movement/position/wind speed/pressure...etc is going to be...sry for all the questions i am jus anxious
well pressure is 999m motion is wnw i won;tknow the wind speed buit i would say 60-70mph but i need the next recon pass to be sure but we will get that as the advisory comes out.
Hey lefty, that's pretty cool riding out a hurricane (I guess). How do you think a concrete, 10 story condo structure would hold up in a cat 3? It is approx 100ft from the beach facing the Gulf and we really have no idea how it would hold up as it has never been exposed to a tropical storm, much less a hurricane...
247. iyou
Thank-you jeff! Don't forget there are Canadians down there
helping your fellow Americans in those areas affected by Katrina!!
oh iyou i dont see you down there huh adn im too young to do that so there dont go doing stuff and me and leftyy are cool again it was all a joke but really laughed at the last one lol
Hey wxwatcher go check out the photos of the condos at Gulf Shores and Navarre Beach. That's your answer. NOT VERY WELL!!!
250. iyou
Thanks again Jeff!!
The GFDL was good with Katrina but we did not have a model agreement 5 days before the landfall.

Not that the models will not move the next few runs... I just think that they will deviate less than in the case of Katrina where most of them jumped from the Florida Panhandle to NO 72 hours before landfall.
252. Selu
Hi everyone. Our town was devastated by Katrina, and we are 60 miles north of Pontchartrain. We had 110 mph sustained winds, with gusts of over 150 recorded.

Having said that, will someone please assure me that there is no way that Rita will follow Katrina's path?
yeah your welcome ill bet thats your butt huh lol
wx i would be worried about surge but i think if its a solid structure it would be ok. now if its just you or if it was juts me i would ride ehr out, cat 4 at most lol but if there is kids or a wife involved u evac man.


i live in va so i drove 4 hrs down there and met up with someone fromthis blog. was an awsome time
wxwatcher...Our condo in orange beach al..first floor was built to give way. Most damage was on first floor, basement..10th floor condo was fine except for some balcony sliding doors had water blowby. all units were in good shape in 3 months. this was east eyewall of ivan.
selu there is no way to say it won't or it will till she gets in the gulf
257. iyou
What -e -ver Jeff!!
getreal, I actually stayed in two of the condos at Gulf Shores (the first time was when Danny came through in '97 I think it was). Danny ripped the side of the condo off next to Pelican Pointe (I was in PP). It was a rush no doubt, but the condo we have in Tx is constructed a little different. It's a brick outside skin (rather than siding), and a solid concrete skeleton. It's also a "V" shape with the cone or tip facing the ocean to 'cut' the wind. When I saw the pictures from MS of brick homes crumpled, I'm starting to lose confidence in this structure...
gave me nice laughts though ok im done
SELA check back on Tuesday morning better idea of coarse then.
yeah bek katrina made me hold the gfdl as a better model. it forcasted the sw jog and the explosive development just like it is doing with rita. thats why i call for a cat 3 because of the gfdl
262. Selu
We've had tremendous damage here. Still trying to recuperate. Just got power back on. Water, we still have to boil.

I can't go through the terror of that experience again. Next time, I'm evacuating to Wyoming! :-)
I visited the condos I've stayed at in Navarre Beach, prior to Ivan, in July. They were modern large structures, and they were ripped apart by wind damage. The large sliding glass doors and Picture window glasses were broken by the force of the wind. NOT A GOOD PLACE TO RIDE OUT A CAT 3 OR BETTER CANE.
i would never ride out a cat 3 in our condo..Phoenix condos in Gulf shores orange beach were not damaged as much as others..water damage in basement was main problem..
Tropical Storm Rita Discussion Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 19, 2005



the new reconaissance aircraft in the system at 07z found that the
pressure had fallen to 999 mb...and first satellite images after
the eclipse show that convection is now wrapping around to the
northwest of the center and has taken a more banded appearance. A
dropsonde in the northwest quadrant had 44 kt at the surface...with
flight level winds in this quadrant of 57 kt. The northeast
quadrant has not yet been sampled...and I presume that higher winds
will be found there during the next hour or so. The initial
intensity is increased to 50 kt.
The last two aircraft fixes indicate an almost due west motion...but
with all the center reformations that have occurred it is difficult
to ascertain a representative motion. My best judgement is 280/8.
Rita has already passed the longitude of the break in the
subtropical ridge...and will come under increasing pressure to have
the track nudge to the left. Furthermore...now that the convection
is becoming a little more symmetric...there should be less
likelihood of additional northward reformations of the center.
Model guidance adjusted to the current location is very tightly
clustered on a path through the Florida Straits south of Key
West...and I have adjusted the official forecast slightly south of
the previous advisory. There has been a fairly significant shift
in the guidance late in the forecast period...with the global
models abruptly weakening the mid-level high over the western Gulf
and allowing Rita to begin a sharper recurvature track. While I
have adjusted the 120-hr point about 120 nm north of the previous
advisory...I am still well to the left of most of the 120-hr
guidance.
Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level low in the northwest
Caribbean is shifting eastward...and as it does so the southerly
shear over Rita will continue to decrease. This should allow for a
faster development rate. The official forecast is very close to
the SHIPS guidance.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/0900z 22.7n 74.3w 50 kt
12hr VT 19/1800z 23.1n 76.0w 60 kt
24hr VT 20/0600z 23.6n 78.5w 70 kt
36hr VT 20/1800z 24.0n 81.2w 80 kt
48hr VT 21/0600z 24.2n 84.0w 90 kt
72hr VT 22/0600z 24.5n 88.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 23/0600z 25.5n 92.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 24/0600z 27.5n 96.0w 95 kt


$$




Rita currently has plenty of cold cloud tops, but is looking a little ragged right now due to some southerly shear possibly. Rita also appears to continuing on wnw track for now.
track is due west and they keep nudging that inensity up thru 48 hrs. that cat 3 over the keys looking betetr and better
Seriously leftyy I can't get to the latest models that last bulletin refers to that have shifted guidance late in the forecast period significantly right. What is he refering to in the advisory??
new recon out. pressure down 1 mb to 998


URNT12 KNHC 190843
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/08:26:40Z
B. 22 deg 38 min N
074 deg 15 min W
C. 850 mb 1413 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 306 deg 041 kt
G. 207 deg 021 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 15 C/ 1528 m
J. 18 C/ 1526 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0318A RITA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NW QUAD 07:08:30 Z
get real the ukmet nogaps and gfdl not make that right turn to the north more sharply than they did in the last runs. thats why there is a good agreemnt in 5 days. the nhc is still not convinced that the ridge will weaken that quickly so they only shifted 120 hrs 12onm and still left of the model guidance
I've got it now.
nhc now bring her to 110 mph or so as she passes the keys. thats 5mph slower than a cat 3 and the error is 25 mph or a full category so she could be a strong cat2 thru a weak cat 4. they keep nudging up the intesnity every advisory. i am teliing you a cat3 at landfall is looking pretty much on point and thats still less tha the gfdl calling for close to a cat 4 or weak cat 4 over the keys. we will see explosive development today. the scary kind we saw with katrina and alot of people in the keys will get caught off guard
Guess I'll go gas up the truck,get water, batteries, etc. today after I sleep just in case and just to beat the rush....
are u in the keys?
No, on Galv. Bay.....but working graveyards right now and don't want to wait till everyone's out trying to prepare.
That new discussion sounds ominous for a few days out: "significant shift in the guidance late in the forecast period" (??)

Could we be looking at complete recurvature after she sits over the steaming GUlf waters for a few days?
guygee they were refering to the quick north turn all major models now show. a landfall in texas is the most likley scenario right but we need to watch more model runs. the point we need to watch is a strong cat 2 or cat 3 will be smacking the keys in 48 hours orso. thats not good at all
guygee if u check the past runs only the gfdl and gfs showed a turn to the nw or north by day 5 now all major modelsshow it and are in good agreement thru days 5. doubt we will seemuch more of a shift as this is not a ophelia situation with weak steering currents
u guys need to see the latest canadian model run. it blows uprita like i said but i turns philippe west as far as the same path as rita and forms another storm that moves north now


Link
Left you are right, what I earlier thought was the center in the loops was some strong convection turning north of the center. Until an eye clears out or we get her on radar it can be hard to tell ssometimes from the loops with much precision.

She is really wrapping up now, the first concern is for everyone in the Keys to get out or if not possible find safety and batten down tight.
heh I am a crappy typist. meant to adresss Lefty
guygee cick my link i just posted check that out. dubt it ould happen but check itout
lol guye i undrstood. if u look at my posts i do much worse lol
284. crow
Just checkin the blog and appreciate all on watch. I also appreciate the work here on site. Young folks got it going.

TY! Coffees done! i'd share it if I could.

the old crow
lol hey crow. i am about to turn in and ur getting up. thats funny
IN MY OPINION: Rita will strike the Florida Keys as a Cat 2 hurricane and enter the Gulf of Mexico just north or over Key West.
Rita will then continue west or slightly south of west into the south central Gulf of Mexico on a coarse very similar to Katrina. Rita will then turn nw into the weakening ridge to near 91 or 92 degrees west then turn north striking the central or se La coast as a cat 3, depending where the turn north occurs. Rita will be inhibited from gaining Cat 4 on second landfall by entrained dry continental air as she approaches the coast.
getreal a major cane develops a anticylone that will help prevent the dry4 air intrusion. i feel a cat 4 at the second landfall is a safe bet specially since i call fo a cat 3 over the keys. still don't see the models being off so ar and i see texas as the threat but we will see. also remebr that dry air that was all around katrina. just reminding you getreal :-)
wel boysbed time. se is blowngup nicely catch u guys tomm
Lefty- The site went down but not before I got a peek. I was wondering if Philippe would make it through that weakness in the ridge. Scary thought that it could turn west. He is going to be a monster if that happens.
Katria did not have to fend off this much dry air in the Gulf of Mexico that Rita is moving into.
yeah guy will have to see what the other models say in the next few runs on philippe. catch u tomm
getreal yes she did. there was tons of dry air. go find some old wv loops. also dry air won't hurt a cat 3 storm from itensifying if it has a anticyclone over it. but we will see. i am telling u though. this storm will be bad real bad and i see ehr blowing up not as big or strong as katrina but don't sleep on her
Catch y'all later going to shut eye now.
also getreal the dry air is moving west and out of the gulf. just checked the wv loop. that dry air won't be there good night
Cat 1 possibly 2 at landfall in the Keys then off to Mexico
That new GFDL stinks!