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Key West's hurricane grotto works again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 AM GMT on September 21, 2005

Tonight I don't want to think about what Rita is doing, or where she might go, or how strong she might be. I just want to be thankful for small miracles. In my blog entry for Sunday, I talked about the church in Key West called the St. Mary's Star of the Sea Roman Catholic Church. In 1922, a nun built a "hurricane grotto" on the grounds of the church in memory of the 600 who died during the great Atlantic-Gulf hurricane of Sept. 10, 1919, a Category 4 hurricane that made a direct hit on Key West. The nun vowed that as long as the grotto stood, Key West would not suffer the brunt of another hurricane. Well, the protection of the grotto worked again. Key West barely escaped the brunt of a severe hurricane that could have been so very much worse. Had Rita's intensification cycle started 24 hours earlier, and she tracked 50 miles further north, the city of Key West would have been devastated. The Key West airport never measured sustained hurricane force winds from Rita, although the National Hurricane Center did receive an unofficial report of sustained winds of 75 mph with gusts to 102 mph in the Key West area. There was flooding and wind damage that will no doubt add up to tens of millions of dollars, but Kest West is feeling lucky tonight. Key Westers, pay a visit to your grotto tomorrow and give thanks!

Jeff Masters
The Grotto (2)
The Grotto (2)
Another view of The Grotto in Key West, Florida...keeping us safe from Hurricanes.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. wpb05
the sprinklers just turned outside amid the heavy rain we have been having...thats classic
yeah shes got a wild look about her and a tight little body. last night she was drunk or something. she was struggling
This thing is going to be a 5, I believe. But, I also think shear, and lower heat content as it gets close to Texas will drop it to a weak 4/3 before landfall depending on how big of a 5 it gets too.
Maybe my tracks are not the latest so they may have converged lefty since I looked at them. I was originally favouring the southern aspect of the possibles as I did not think that high was going to move anywhere, but this looks more and more like a bad call now.

Because I live a long way away and in no danger the intensity fluctuations are the most interesting part to me. I am wondering what is going to control this in the next 72 hours and how it will effect the hurricane as it progresses.

The NHC were originally saying a 1-2 past keys and 3 at Texas, they got the first bit right but longer range they seem to have unserestimated it and are now putting a correction in with the better data they are getting.

I'm interested in the next pressure reading, when's it due and what are peoples guesses ( to while away the night time hours ! )
I bet she parties, you can just look at her and see it. You might see her out in Buckhead.
z, if u read the disscussuions for the past 2 dasy u would have seen that they stated quite a few times that rapid intensification was hard to farcast ans intensity is the hardest thing to forcast. also they stated many times in the past when a storm becomes a mjor hurricane all they can do is be reactive to the intensity becasue with eye wall replacement cycles and rapid growth its hard to forcast. but they hinted for 2 days that she could explode and thst what she has done. also the gfdl forcasted this explosion days ago hence why i was calling for a cat 3 over the keys
oh yeah hillary is a clubber for sure. probly lots of one night stands lol
carbo she will not encounter any shear befor landfall. thats why she is forcasted to be a cat 4 at landfall. in the latest disscussion they stated that exact intensity at landfall will be hard to determine becasue of eye wall replacement cycles but a cat 5 was a possibilty
so are you then agreeing on a TX landfall or is there still a chance it could hit LA
To all wondering about the "blackout" on GOES -

The GeoSync Sats are orbiting along the equator. Tomorrow is the autumnal solstice. What happens is that the sun's energy overpowers that of the sat transponders, and you get a brief blackout. Happens twice a year. Usually lasts until the beta-angle (the sun relative to the satellite) decreases to about 2-3 degrees. Generally, if you have a home satellite system, you will see the same thing as brief (10-15 minute) blackouts. It really hits Ku hard.
as of right now a tx landfall seems themost likley but la can not be ruled out
With all the crap that happened on here today, watch her grow to powerfull cat5 and plow stright into Mexico.


stsimons --- >

eight o'clock for Mars ??

never mind the racoon for a minute lol and answer me

theblur, it blackouts every night. theres even a schedule as it changes as the earth tilts on its axis. someone posted it but i will try to find it for you
I think you got it wrong lefty. They said Cat. 5 while in the Gulf, which I think will happen. But shear will be there towards the end of its gulf run. Plus heat content is also lower. It wont be a 5 at landfall. But I am interested to see if we can get another 900 or so pressure for this one.
Blur, refresh my memory, you're in Houston, yes? We're about to get it handed to us, aren't we?
right carbo but there will be no shear. what will caue the shear?

also whats the officali forcast for landfall? its 120kt cat 4

That's not what I was seeing them say lefty, ignoring the discussions ( where they tend to cover themselves I feel especially more so now after katrina ) and just looking at the tracking map they had 1-2-3 from SE of Florida up to Texas landfall.

I guess it's open to interpretation but they seemed a lot less "aggressive" on intensification than say Dr Masters on this website, at least going through the Keys area. At least to me they did. Although the SST's were high near the Keys they kept mentioning the problem with developement for Rita in this area, that's what I got from them anyhow.



Link To me this image gives an idea of just how large these storms get in relation to heavily populated areas. Also, how much populating we need to do in the west still lol.
Just went outside, I can see a great view of the outflow of Rita over us in the Tampa bay area, with the moon as a backdrop. So far I have seen better images from Rita than the rest of the season, considering....
z, u need to go back and read the disscussions. infact the disscussion are what i wait for most. its not them covering themselves its them explaining what they are seeing. go to the archives and read them. i read every one of them and they hinted at exloisve development but stated atleast 3 times they can't forcast it so they would not
also z they have no reason to cover themselves after katrina. check the archives they pinned down landfall 90 hours out
Yea, they always say its too difficult to forcast strenght
Lefty, supposedly the troff thats going to turn it will cause the sheer. Watch the tropical update on TWC, or read steven gregory's blog. They mention the shear late in Rita's gulf run. But I still do believe a 4 at landfall, 5 at peak.
Also (sorry that last link was the eclipse schedule). Here is the original that I posted Link
here u go z. this is from 5pm yesterday. just one disscussion. if u want to see all of it go read them


THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105
KT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER
THE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

carbo the trof will not reach rita. it will weaken the ridge and rita will turn into the weakness but unlike katrina rita will not be clsoe enough to feel the trough
And lastly, the link to the "reason" for the eclipse" Link
If you say so. But I'm still doubting a 5 at landfall. But it would be interesting.


But as much as I hate to see these things be strong when they hit, I love it and always want them to get stronger at the same time? I love seeing Cat. 5's, and record breaking storms. Am I a bad person for this?

hurricane79:
if you went outside (like i just did)...
is Mars lower left of the moon ??
stsimon seems to have tangled with the coon
and is unable to respond lol
Carbo04, I think you are just a concerned human being. It really is hard not to pay aggressive attention to the tropics lately with the past 2 years being so increasingly active and devastating.
carbo i doubt a 5 at landfall too. think a strong 4 but 5 is unlikely
Lefty, just checked some of the archives here's a typcial example of one of the discussions.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al182005.discus.002.shtml?

They say it will intensify but no indication of massive exlosion as you would phrase it. Check the wind speeds up to the 23rd Sept, later they uprate this

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al182005.discus.005.shtml?

still nothing more than a mid cat 3 by it reaches top left Gulf. I did not check all the discussions so I may have missed what you are talking about, but their tracking graphs never show cat 3 part the keys and up until recently showed cat 3 at landfall.
Thanks windcast. It's hard to find the boundery between loving to see the super monster storms, and wanting them to weaken to save lives, and damage.
536. wpb05
well lefty, sub, et al....i am gonna retire for the night...the tribe game wore me out emotionally...i will see you guys in the morning sometime again...will be interesting to see what she is doing then, since the supposed recon has apparently flown to the bermuda triangle
Have a good one wpb05
z the maps are forcats the disscussion are what explain the forcasts. take the timeto read them all and u willsee them disscussing the explosive development. where do u think i got all my info on the development or the potential for a cat5
alright wp
Any chance this hurricane could be another Emily? Or, maybe one of you can answer this: Why didn't Emily curve to the North earlier this summer?
z this is from 11 am monday

THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER
THAN FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE A
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.



z here is 5pm monday


ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE
SURFACE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105
KT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER
THE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


11 pm

...BUT
THE GFDL COULD BE RIGHT IF RITA ESTABLISHES A BETTER INNER CORE.
THERE IS THUS A POSSIBILITY THAT RITA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.


and i could find more but figure this makes the point
Hey guys. its bed time. see you tomorrow.
Blackout is over, new satellite image shows a half ring of very deep convection around the south side of the eye, but the eye is no smoother than it was a few hours ago.
Hi lefty,

The problem with the discussion is that you can read into it want you want to. It therefore tends to be subjective rather than objective.

You say you got your information for a potential for a catagory 5 from this, but you were also predicting a cat 3 past the keys, where did you get your information for this ? The tracking maps and tables indicated 1-2 for the keys so you must have over estimated the possibles they were outlining in the discussion. That's why I was saying it is subjective. The tracking tables and maps are not subjective, they might be wrong, but you either take it or leave it.


yeah same thing forcing rita west made emily go west into mexico. ridges are the bigest sterring factor is storms as well as troughs. ophelia was trapped between 2 so had no where to go. rita is traveling around the southern part of a massive ridge. a trough will errrode the west side and she will turn north and make landfall
windcast - later in the season systems in the Carribean will have a tendancy to move more northerly. But as zx and lefty said, too much high pressure earlier on and now for systems that far south to move north. Usually.
z the tracking forcast are that forcast. they are forcast fro days in the future and the disscussion tells u why they forcaste wht they do. now i provided 3 examples where they say she could be stronger than forcast. secdon u must not the forcast intensity ahs an erro of 20kts. thats 25 mph or a full category. they tell you that in the forcast tracking map


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY


u need to look at all the nhc provides to understand why they do what they do and what they feel is the ptential like this from 11pm

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
thers a reson everythig they out out for the advisories is put out. if u ignore the discussions and what they say ur goign to have tunnel vision
I am going to bed. Bottom line: 130 to 150 MPH near Galveston Saturday. Later...
night 79
also z i made my forcast based on the data and what i saw. now while i was off a few hours she was a cat 3 well ahead of what the nhc forcastes and this was hinted in the disscusions. but if u want to not read them thats on you.
now even the bamm calls for a galveston landfall
Lefty, we are going to have to agree to disagree on this :)

What is not arguable is that the discussion is always subjective as it gives possibles for the reader to interpret whereas the tables give pure data which is objective and the reader can agree or disagree with.

The tables given by them have been pretty accurate all the way trhough as they have been updated along the timeline, peoples estimates up to now have tended to be too high compared to these tables AFAIK.



lol z. keep ur tunnel vision. don;t bash tem on soimethign with out all the data please. so if i know soemthing u don't not my fault. i provoded the evidence to what i am saying and ur ingoringing it. that means u coaul care less. and i hope u know that forcasting intensity is the hardest and less understood part of forcasting a hurricane. so when u look at the tracking mao ur only seeing the best guess they could make, but they let you know the possibilities. thats the point i am making. and whoile u go by the tracking map they to are subjectuve as they are subject to a 20 kt error. thats a full category so while they may say 3 it could be 4. so ur reason for ignoring the disscussion is mute as ur using another subjective peice of data with out any understanding for why they forcasted it. but like i said, until u learn u will have tunnle vision.
z, people forcast were wring as they were uneducated. my predcition was damn close. she was not forcasted to be a cat 3 till 2pm tomm, now 24 hrs later she is forcasted to be a 4 at 2pm tomm. remebr i said 20 kt error and thats ur error so be subjective if u must but theres a reason why we can be off and they can't. becasue they save lives. but i am done disscudding it. i find it odd u would dissmiss the disscussions and see u must just be a watcher and not try to predict. but its cool.
new nogapps now shifted east towards the other models but not as far east as them. we have a good concensus so galveston area looking like a likley area for landfall
if there is no recon misson over night it appers there will not be a vortex fix till 2pm tomm. thats just crazy

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rest up
I know what you mean lefty with the tunnel vision thing and I can see the point you are getting across, if you do not read the discussion you have no framework to judge the tables on. I agree with this, and I do read the discussion because they are very interesting, but when I judge what actually happens with what they predict I just use the tables.

For instance, here's why I think the discussion can be a problem for me and you. We both find hurricanes very interesting, because we find them very interesting we would both like to see bigger, better, more rare, more extreme hurricanes to occur and to watch. I think this means that we might be biased to over estimating hints on the intensities dropped into the discussion, certainly more likely to than underestimating them, because by nature smaller hurricanes are less interesting.

Do you see my point ?

There is a trade off with the tunnel vision thing though I agree. Need to reach a happy medium I guess.

What do you think the next pressure will be ? I'm thinking a drop of 3-4mb.

im gonna say cat 5 by mid day thursday, easy prediction....
no wind shear, warm water, mid gulf waters, cat 5 easy...scary situation, the media is going to be crazy with this!
z thats not right. i have read the disscussion and called for a weaking system. i read it casue its one forcaster point of view to another. helps me understand what i am seeing and one not. i ahve also stated on a number of occassions my intesnity forcast is more towards the gfdl as its my favorite model and what tghe nhc says, but when u say somehting happens they got wrong i must point out the "POSSIBILITY" was noted in the disscussion. the disscussion is the greatest tool we have and i use all of there tools they give us. so my thing to you was to use all they tools. a forcaster does this and please don;t assume i am biased towards one thing or another. casue maybe u r but not me. if i was i would be saying philllipe wasgoing to blow up and turn west which i have stated its dying and will be a fish storm

well since we have no recon and it will be 3 hours since the last advisory i willl think they will estimated out to about 4-6 mb drop
but i think landfall near corpus christi, just my feeling so far after seeing airflow and satelite imagery from today, will post a follow up predict tomorrow in the afternoon
Lefty said

"i find it odd u would dissmiss the disscussions and see u must just be a watcher and not try to predict. but its cool.
"

That's quite a good summary actually. Although I do have fun making predictions I am more interested in how the actuallity matches the tables, ie I look at current and am interested in the historical prediction, rather than what goes on in the future.

I think it may be because I don't need to know what it is doing in the future, unless of course it is on track for England !
wind models are all north fo that and in concensus but u could be right
i feelu z, but my concern is not where its goin but hwy its doing what its doing and what it might do. maybe thats the difference. i could not imagine not reading and using the disscussion.
"i am biased towards one thing or another. casue maybe u r but not me"

I don't think anyone with a hobby that is interested in hurricanes is not biased to wanting to see the most impressive available and that can possibly cloud someones objectivty on possibilities !

But that's my viewpoint on the matter, it is not having a go at you, and I include myself in that synopsis.

I have to do some work now, it was good hearing your veiwpoint on your weighting of the discussion releases.
i also think it will weaken when it begins to turn north from category 5 status, just my very small humble opinion, i am by no means an expert or meteorologist, so don't mark my words.
plus if u look at the forcasting map it stay pretty constant for 2 days. the reason has been said in past disscussions in that when u have a intense hurricane they can no longer forcast its intensity but state what it is and raise the forcast where accordingly. thats info u would not get from the forcast map. so by tomm the forcast map will give u nothing more than what she is doing at that time and thats just the nature of the beast
wind thats sounds right. its hard for a cat 5 to make landfall hence why only 2 have hit the us but some of the most destructive hurricanes were not 5's but 4's and rita lloks to be a strong 4 at landfall. she will be an intense hurricane
Mornign all.

I see Rita has gotten her act together, but how is Hilary doing tonight?
wow she is looking impressive on ir imagery
man hilary has sobered up tonight. looking good asnd hitable lol

yeah looks like another katrina sj. looks like its texas turn now. this is nuts. she is forcasted to be a cat 4 by 2pm tomm
Hilary is on IR? That's odd.lol.
I said it yesterday and I will say it again. I would HATE to be the one to tell those people that gotta leave the Astrodome. Maybe we can find another dome for them somewhere. The GA dome maybe?
Weak Cat 4 through Freeport, TX. Friday Evening landfall.
lefty, i agree with that, strong cat4 at landfall unless something disrupts it about 200 miles out from where it hits. It may weaken a bit before hitting land, but will still be destructive none the less. The water temps and Rita's path will determine its strength ultimately.
lol

hell no not the astro dome. aint goin to happen. they can ride it out where they are at lol
Shes in good shape
By the way, does anyone have any news on STORMTOP? Did he feel Katrina's fury on his face in the end?
yeah he has been in and out of here the past few days. he did pretty well and didn't suffer to much damage
Houston Astrodome right? They would leave them there you think? I have no idea of the layout of Houston so if this is a stupid question please explain why.
Water temps Although, these don't seem to show much variance. Thought when Katrina had passed thru it cooled some water down, but that link doesn't seem to show so?
wind thats casue she traversed the central and eastern gulf, traveled mostly over the gulf loop, deep bodie of very warm watter like the gulf stream, and it was 3 weeks ago. the temps have rebounded
yeah sj they were talking about it on tv since it became apprent she will be a 4 and possibly a 5. not sure where they will go but they will evac them from what i heard
Her wake is now under miss al
yeah and it seems ritas track will take ehr around any possible water affected by katrine, thats the worse part of it, but if the nhc thinks she could be a cat 5 in the gulf and a strong cat 4 at landfall they must see the water is warm enough
Damn the b!tches have been crazier than normal this year-Katrina O and now Rita. I can't even rember the girls before them cause this season has been so crazy.

So 97l is still a few days off if anything at all? Any other areas to watch or is Rita gonna be the only game for a little while?
we are losing her on radar :-( that sucks lol only staelite imasgery and microwave data till she gets close to texas
lolsj i don;t even know.ii been so wrappedup with riat i have no clue whats out there.
Is the difference in the water temps off al miss fl coast enuff to make a difference in a storm?
wow, i mean wow wait till u see the 745 imagery on the goes floater. she is bombing out somemore and could be as strong as 130mph by the 5am update
ed she will not be anywehre near the wake of katrina and if the forcast to a cat 5 poissblity means anything the answer is no
Link this is interesting... looks accurate , people better evac so they can come back!
i know rita will not be near the wake...i just wondered if the water was cool enuff to make a difference if a storm went into the cooler water?
university estimate has the storm at 926mb and 130kts lol. pretty excessive if u as me. thought i was funny
Man that is some of the deepest convection I have seen in that quantity in a storm in a long time. Brace yourself TX you are about to be tread on.
yeah if it did but she won't thats my point. she will head due west with a lsight north movement to it till the ridge weakens and she swings aorund it. for her to be in the wake she would have to follow th wtrack of katrina which she will not do.
Hey Lefty--SJ--will yall post some recent loops for me?
No doubt she will doughnut.
i agree with the track.. i was just asking about water temp difference..hypothetical
lefty-

Rita likely won't threaten NOLA, but she's big and strong and will certainly have some surge effect on the city. Any thoughts on how much of an effect. I keep having images of those patched levees that are just *barely* above lake level. A few feet and that city might fill again. That link makes it look like Ponch could see a 6 foot surge.
its much better to watch these incredible storms develop when you're not right under the bullseye. night guys.
I have heard the corps is concerned aobut anything more than a couple of feet above an average tide. Not sure how much water she might push in to the Ponch, but that is a scary thought. I think that is not only the patched parts they are concerned about either.
3 ft surge or more than 3 inches of rain in a couplefo hours will casue major problems in nola
Lefty, when is the last time you remeber seeing that much convectin that deep in a storm?
um katrina lol
well for nola, it looks bad really because of a high tide forecast. With the surge coming in at 7 to 10ft, this may pose problems. Here's the forecast
She had that much grey in the IR loop? I don't recall that. I am use to seeing that gray in small spots near eyes and in stroms coming off of Africa, but that much wrapping around I don't remember in Katrina?
wind- that forecast suggests that it may only be 2-3 feet above normal. That's not too bad, but I gotta think the ACoE must not be sleeping much right now. Sounds pretty touch-and-go.
Those tides 2 to 3 feet above normal concern me more than the 7 to 10 foot waves. Waves are not the same as surge. I think surge pushes much harder and further, like me if I get my run at Hilary.lol.
johnson, i'd bet you're right about the ACoE!
anyway, i say cat 5 by mid day thursday. btw, i like the iceberg idea someone had earlier in one of the blogs here...dumping icebergs into the gulf had me rofl's hahaha!
SJ- the waves shouldn't be a major problem. Maybe for some of the torn up shore areas and rigs, but not for the levees.

That tide will find its way right into the lake, however. And that advisory was for east of the river. I'd imagine there would be a slightly stronger tide at NOLA due to the land orientation there.
Hey Hey Hey...Hillary is in good shape tonight
956mb/105kt
I was in Walmart way up here in central Illinois today. There were a couple of firefighters buying up cots, aero beds, camping supplies, etc. They bought all that Walmart had. I asked them if it was for hurricane relief and they looked at each other meaningfully and said, "sorta". At first I thought they were going down to Misissippi or NOLA to assist. Lots of first responders from up here have been doing that. But, in hindsight, I htink that they were not playing catch up this time. I think they were loading up so they would be ready to go in after Rita hits. Of course, I could be wrong....heck they might be putting up a whole bunch of evacuaees or something. But that significant exchange of looks and that cryptic, "sorta" makes me think that maybe for once someo one is ahead of the 8 ball isntead of behind it. Hope so, anyway...
they dropped the pressure another 4 mb. but remebr its estimated it could be more or less

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.3 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

just a lil fact, the pressure has dropped 32mb in 24 hrs. thats impressive
That is what I was getting at Johnson. Waves are light weight compared to tides. And if by chance she should track a little N of the middle of the cone then that would be even worse. The levees already leak a little now.
THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED
DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT

ain't technology grand!
Can't sleep, do yall think we have one that might finally break 900 briefly?
That is real impressive Lefty.

Alright ya'll I am off to bed. Half way through the work week. Should be off for landfall though. Everyone knows that the Texans will start showing up in masses over the next 24-36. Ya'll do everything you can to convince the doubters to get out unless they are truly prepared for a CAT 5.
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED
DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT. HOWEVER...BEFORE
THE EYE WENT OUT OF RANGE OF THE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KEY WEST
WSR-88D...WINDS OF 100-115 KT WERE SEEN AT BETWEEN 9000-13000 FT.
ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF TRENDS FROM THE LAST
AIRCRAFT MISSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105
KT...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275-280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. RITA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE
RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS RUN...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM
THEIR SOUTH TEXAS LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR AND SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD THEREAFTER WITH A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN
JUST OVER 72 HR. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES ARE IN THE NOISE LEVEL.

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF RITA GIVES EVERY IMPRESSION THAT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS CONTINUING...AND WHILE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL MENTIONED EARLIER IS NOT AS APPARENT NOW THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL GOING STRONG. THUS INTENSIFICATION COULD
CONTINUE UNTIL A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS OR UNTIL THE EYE
MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN ABOUT 24 HR. THE GFDL MODEL
PEAKS RITA AT ABOUT 120 KT IN 12-18 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS IT
AT 122 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE PEAKS IT AT 131 KT IN 48
HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BRING THE SYSTEM TO 125 KT IN 24
HR AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE IF RITA BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HR
BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DUE TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR THE
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT. RITA SHOULD
MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL LANDFALL...THEN WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL.
night sj
I think I heard they were flying out of Pensacola b/c thy needed the other base. This could have something to do with it. I bet they don't have all thier support there.
k bed time night all
What do they mean by (these changes are in the noise level)?..
Probably room for error or they expect certain models to shift with others in agreement
nite leftyy and sj
i dont think we'll see this cane get below 900mb, that would be quite a surprise and a VERY intense storm.
Yea, probably not below 900, but I like to pump everybody up. I talk a lot of crap and throw a lot of stuff out there during the day that sounds stupid. Its just to get a rise out of some of these old farts whom I know are proffessional meteorologists that are stuck forecasting 10 to 15 year old patterns that I feel are not present anymore.
Damn I'm glad I decided against moving back to NW Florida! If these strong hurricane seasons continue for the next 30+ years the way they predict (and one paleo-scientist who studies ancient hurricanes said it could even last 150 years!), when it is all over, the Florida panhandle could be gone.
buoy to the north has 56kt wind and 35ft wave height
Link check this out sirvivor
I thought that buoy was broke
She is going to Mexico about 100 mi south of Brownsville to Brownsville.
She should start to have a more southern component to her movement now
CNN just said that landfall will be made on the Texas coast between Friday night and Saturday morning. If you are in an area that could get storm surge or flooding and aren't sure whether or not to evacuate, I'd like to share something with you that the Biloxi mayor said after Katrina. If there was one positive thing about Katrina, it was that she hit in daylight. Our power went off here at 6:00 AM, a good two hours before the worst of it started. He said that if Katrina had hit in the middle of the night or after dark, thousands of lives would have been lost here because so many had to get in their attics or on their roofs and could be rescued when it was all over and if it had been dark, with the power out they wouldn't have been able to see to know where to go and avoid going under the water.

We had the two zones closest to the Gulf under mandatory evacuation, but of course many stayed in their homes in those zones anyway and are no longer with us now.

If you evacuate, please take your pets with you. They say to expect the worst and hope for the best in these things, and if you don't take them, don't expect to ever see them again. We had a couple of disoriented dogs wandering around our neighborhood after Katrina, and of course many didn't make it. The web site www.petswelcome.com can give you places where pets are welcome.

Please know that we on the Mississippi Gulf Coast are praying for you on the Texas coast. I remember all too well the anxiety you must be going through now since that was what we went through just a little over three weeks ago when it appeared that New Orleans was spared the direct hit and Katrina would be coming at us. Please be safe and make the right decision regarding evacuation.

And I suppose you call yourself a Scientist?

Then you "Praise the Lord" and hug the grotto. Next we'll hear you also will do an Indian Rain Dance during the drought and throw in some Witch Doctor from Africa or the Amazon to save the levies from being overrun. Yea, it's "The Lord" who saves us, not cold up welling, or upper level troughs or wind shear. Let's all put our faith in the Lord and just turn off our computers and numerical models.
Folks, it's clear to me that Rita is a cat. 4 based on her satellite appearance. I'll have to go to school before th 8 AM advisory, so I won't be able to comment on it, but I fully expect at lest a 135 MPH cat. 4. You can laugh at me if I'm wrong. If I'm not wrong, then that means that she pulled an Andrew like I thought she might, going from a tropical storm to a cat. 4 hurricane in 24 hours. I think she will become a cat. 5 sometime today or early tomorrow.
cpeterka, they say there are no atheists in foxholes
Ophelia makes landfall .. in Scotland !

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005091812!!/

The remnants of hurricane Ophelia have reached the UK after being swept across the Atlantic. Ophelia can now be classified as a small cloud with a bit of rain in it and probably enough wind to blow off your bowler hat. :)

Still not enough wind for SE england though for kite flying.

Rita is looking very well formed now ( like Rita Davis ? ), a classic hurricane shape and form.

RITA IS A CAT 4

Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 15a

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005
...Satellite suggests that Rita has become a category four hurricane...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the Marquesas Keys westward to the Dry Tortugas.

Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rita.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 24.4 north...longitude 85.3 west or about 195 miles... west of Key West Florida and about 790 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west near 14 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of Rita farther away from the Florida Keys over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today.

Satellite imagery suggests that Rita has continued to strenghten and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 135 mph with higher gusts. Rita is now a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A NOAA plane will check the intensity later this morning. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...28.00 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels is possible in the Tropical Storm Warning area. Storm surge flooding elsewhere in the Florida Keys and South Florida should subside today.

Rita is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over portions of extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...with maximum amounts of 10 inches over the higher elevations...are possible over northwest Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...24.4 N... 85.3 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila $$



Saludos a todos los hispanos que participan en este blog. Si no lo han hecho, por favor mandenle a WHITEWABIT el estado y la ciudad en donde viven. Los que viven fuera de los Estados Unidos, dejen su pais y ciudad. Esto lo hacemos porque cuando el huracan Katrina perdimos contacto con varias personas del area afectada y no queremos que vuelva a pasar.
948mb .. that is a fiarly large drop. From storm to Cat 4 in 1 day, pretty impressive.

Has the shear dropped off already, or is it over slightly warmer water ?
ZAK SHEAR IS BELOW 5KNTS AND SST's ARE 87-91 IN THE GOM
WHEN WE GET A PLANE IN THERE I WOULDNT BE SUPRISED IF IT ISNT 10-15 MB LOWER IN PRESSURE.. AND IM THINKING WINDS MAY BE 145...VERY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATTELITE
Man this thing has exploded!! It has gone from a 70mph Tropical Storm 24 hours ago, to a Category 4 this morning, and most likely higher by the 11am advisory!

It really is a thing of beauty to look at. It is a shame that lives will once again be threatened by yet another monstrous storm.
Good Gravy. Hard to believe that this storm was poorly organized this time yesterday prior to brushing by the keys. Wonder how rare it is for a storm to go from TD to Cat 4 this fast.
what is its forward speed now?
is anyone fairly surethis thing won't strengthen any more today?

i'm just hoping it won't rev up to a cat5

its just a bit scary cause it went from TS to cat4 so darn quickly, i'm wondering what is in place weatherwise to keep it at "just" 4 status
guess i'll just wait untill everyone wakes up...lol
There really isn't anything to stop her from strengthening into a Cat 5...the water is warm enough, and the shear is quite low. The key is what happens close to landfall. Three days to go...and for the most part, only the last 12-24 hours really matter.
What is the ridge over TX/LA doing? Does anyone know if it has started to move east?
Where is our grotto!!??

--Victoria (Matagorda Bay) Texas.
Good morning
Thanks to all who asked about us here when Rita passed through. The best to all this hurricane season from us in Nassau, Bahamas :)
Further strengthening is very likely, cat 5 at landfall is probably 50/50 at this point. But Im still having a hard time figuring out what exactly will prevent this from becoming cat 5, this just looks really bad at this point.
mybahamas..Glad all went well for you there, I will be visiting your great Island end of next month, via Carnival Cruise..Hope there are no more canes a brewing by then. :)
WOW CAT you are soooooo right. DAMN you hit it right on the nose. HEY EVERYONE CAT JUST INSULTED ANOTHER PERSON WHO IS NEW TO THIS AND IS JUST LOOKING FOR SOME ANSWERS. Hope your mom and son make it out ok and remember that Jesus loves you. BTW RAMBLING is spelled this way r-a-m-b-l-i-n-g. Would'nt want you to look like a moron........ass.
Rita couldn't ask for a better enviornment, the sky is the limit for this one, be prepared for extreme destruction. And remember almost 15 percent of our oil refining capabilities come from the houston and galveston area.
Good Gravy. Hard to believe that this storm was poorly organized this time yesterday prior to brushing by the keys. Wonder how rare it is for a storm to go from TD to Cat 4 this fast.


Not very rare when you have the conditions Rita has.

CFL, what is the high ridge doing? Can you observe any changes? I think I have, however, I am only a weather enthusiast.
here you go Iam...Link..you can click on the + or - 3hrs to see where it is moving..
Scary all the same Carbo.
Thanx for that link! Newbie question, what is the difference between the layers in that steering map?
All eyes on Rita as she blossoms and makes her inevitable trek across the Gulf towards the Texas coast.

It is a rainy morning on the East Central Florida coast with occasional distant thunder. Meanwhile, in the mid-Atlantic, Phillipe stubbornly defies the models, seemingly willing to be sheared away in pieces rather than make that fast break towards the north.

From our Local Discussion last night:
"FRI-TUE...RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN GENERAL POSITION OVER THE MID ATLC SEABOARD. REINFORCING HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN MEAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASE IN LINE WITH ABSENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS INDICATES WAVE EMBEDDED IN ELY FLOW MOVING THROUGH BAHAMAS SUN AND INTO S FL MON POSSIBLY AN ARTIFACT OF PHILLIPE. RAIN CHANCES MAY BE
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ISOLD AS IS INDICATED EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOULD THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZE."

Artifact of Phillipe? I wonder what this artifact will look like if it manages to get under the Atlantic Ridge and gets some "quality time" with the warm waters SE of here?
WG03...Thx for the link. In your opinion, have you seen any significant changes. I seem to be having a mental block in understanding the movement of this ridge.
Very true, Chicago. Luckily Katrina's cool wake is still around somewhat. Probably the difference between this thing being a 160 MPH Cat. 5, and a 185 MPH Cat. 5.
IAmRoot-Rita appears to be having some sort of an influence on the high pressure ridge that is currently steering it. Rita's upper level outflow (exhalation) looks like it is pushing the high pressure off to the east and north, this is especially apparent in the past 4-5 hours.
There is more than enough thermal energy to support a cat 5 for a duration of time seeing that Rita will be over much deeper water for a longer period than Katrina. Not to mention shear levels are for the most part less than 5mph, and decreasing to near ZERO for the next 24-48 hours.
IAM it has moved slightly eastward but not much..Today will be the day to see how far it moves and what affect it has on Ritas path..Also foward speed of Rita will be critical, in my opinion foward speed of 15mph or more could bring her further west..
Didn't see an answer to your question ed2800 so hope this helps.
When working with dynamic systems or models, results have a certain margin of error/uncertainty based upon limitations in detecting conditions and factoring in multiple variables. As you dig deeper into the data, calculations and results, this margin accumulates to a point where any assumptions deteriorate to SWAGs (scientific wild *ss guesses) then simple WAGs.
When a data point or result is in the noise, the accuracy is in question beyond commonly accepted limits. At this point, when someone is breathing down your neck for an answer, the chicken bones come out and get waved over the computer that has had the ashes from a sacrifice smeared around the edges of the monitor.
Joe B.'s take

POSITION, INTENSITY POST...WEDNESDAY MORNING.

First of all, since we have no recon in the hurricane, I am not yet ready to verify the 948 that TPC has. I feel that this is an even-handed approach, for while it means only a 3 mb error in the forecasted pressure, it still is yet another baffler to me as to how they say one thing for one set of circumstances ( it takes the wind time to get down to the surface ) and yet here we have them ramping it up to a 4, with pressures still not down in the Saffir Simpson 4 category according to their own estimate. My cumpare Joe Lundberg, has been advising me to let all this stuff go, and guess what, he's right, but I felt that if I didnt point this out, I would get accused of only arguing when the reports were weaker than what I thought. Right or wrong, I want to be even handed, at least enough so I can live with myself.

In any case, we will verify the position and pro-rate the pressure once the plane get in there.

The verification of the position is 24.4 and 85.3 and is 45 mile error on my part over 24 hours.

New position forecast.. all times 12z Thursday 25.0,90.0 prs 930 mb wind 120kts/ Friday 27.0 94.5 prs 920 mb wind 125 kts/ Sat 31.0 96.5 prs 970 mb wind 85 kts/ ( note landfall near 29 north, 96 west)/ Sun 35.0 97.5 990 mb 40 kts /

Lowest pressure a solid cat 5 at 915 mb.

A 60 mile error here may be a 50 billion dollar error for Texas. As it stands now, the track where it is is a dangerous, damaging hurricane. But a hit at Galveston and a move up into Houston of a cat 4 hurricane could take a 10 billion dollar storm to 50-100 billion.

And of course, the landfall of these powerful storms is rendering the forecasted damage this year, though well above normal, very short of what is happening. I am aware of that, and that is why in the new scale we are developing, a floating damage figure gets determined per storm. But that is something to talk about later.

Along with the comparisons to Carla, the pattern, and the brew ha ha that is being worked up as we get these cool shots in, but have to deal with more of the tropics as the ridge comes back over the southeast in days 10-20.

But this was the position post, so ciao for now ****

I am in Lake Charles, just northeast of Calcasieu Lake. I am trying to decide if and when we should leave. I would like to decide BEFORE we are told to.
could someone give a link to a water vapor loop.........thanks
I am in Lake Charles a little NE of Calcasieu Lake. I would like to decide to leave before we are told.
quick update and i am back to sleep. she is a cat 4 and there is tons of heat content, now she will likely not be a 5 at leandfall bnut she will be a 5
Yup...Rita blew up big time...just like we figured she would...looks like the TX coast is gonna get smacked HARD!
2 things

1. Is it just me or is Rita nowhere near the size of Katrina?

2. Science or Religion no matter what you have to remenber both can't explain everything in their own realms much less the realms of the other.
Sorry about the duplicate posts. I didn't think I hit the 'post comment' button.
Rita will track south of where Katrina upwelled some cooler waters so that will not be that big of a factor..
I dont see it going above 155 though.. Just a GuessTimate..
Wew....that was a close one. As I look off my balcony at the milky stirred up water this morning, I am extremely grateful that things worked out the way they did. There are so many factors with this storm that had they even been only slightly different could have wiped Key West and myself from the map. We truly dodged a big fat bullet.

One week ago Rita was not even a blip on the screen....three days ago at this time it was just being born as a TD. I remember sitting at my desk Sunday morning and thinking "what is the non-sense?" At least we are getting good at doing the hurricane dance....I mean...everyone knows how to put their shutters up really well...I only cut myself on their sharp edges a few times this go around.

The roar of the wind was really cool from a spectators point of view. I had a great seat on a westward facing balcony that completely protected me from the wind. It was spectacular even as a Cat 1. I think it could have gone from spectacular to scarry really quickly had things been only slightly different with the intensity cycle.

Was it the Grotto? Who knows? Who Cares? We made it through yet another close call and for that I'm thankful.

That's about all for now in Key West
OK SO BUSH IS GETTING HOURLY UPDATES ON RITA... HE WAS STILL ON VACATION AT THIS POINT FOR KATRINA..IM GOING TO CALL HIM CURIOUS GEORGE!!!! THERE IS MY POLITICAL RANT
Orders for Cameron parish evacuations.
Further info for folks in texas, from a forecaster discussion in Detroit:

Big changes in models handling remnants of Hurricane Rita. High
pressure will quickly build in behind the departing shortwave and
set up shop over Michigan through Tuesday night. Very dry air will
accompany this high...making for a nice start to the week. Tropical
moisture will remain well to our south through Tuesday night...the
GFS keeps Rita over eastern Texas for an extended period of time.

So could be not only landfall is a major problem, but the aftermath.
Rita is looking very business-like now

photo

Very elegant form.



Iam, you had to know the Cameron evac would be coming. With a TS going in W of Cam there is always enough of a rise in water to go over hwy82. With something like this going in W hwy 27 (as well as everything else down there) will go under. Wonder when they're going to start talking about evac for Cal?
Curious George....I love it! Let's hope the Govt. doesnt take away our free forecasts....I'd hate to think about George knowing more about the weather than the rest of us.
At least the Horse Trainer guy has been replaced.
Let's hope she burns out. She's so eager to outdo her sister Katrina that she's ramping it up too quickly. Maybe by the time she gets to Texas she'll be a dried up old hag.
Rita is as much if not more of a hurricane that Katrina was at this time..

Katrina had near 90 temps to go through

Rita has 85,86 temps to go through

She may be a larger storm, and equally powerful at landfall, Her intensity peak should not be what Katrina's was..
How does shear now match shear then though hookedontropics ?
At 10:00, the superintendent, Jude Theriot, will meet with officials and make a decision about public schools for the rest of the week. I'll post if I hear of anything.
SWLA-SF....are you in LC?
Yep, near MSU
I'm near airport. U staying or heading North?
i just want everyone to know i havent changed my thinking since yesterday...the srorm will be a srong cat 4 with winds to 145 when it hits just west of galveston on friday night....get real you can come up with as many theories as you want but this storm will not affect the new orleans area..the only thing we will get from RITA is maybe some tides that will come into st bernard and eastern orleans as rita passes way south of the city..for the next 72 hours this high will be more then strong enough to push RITA into the upper texas coast...this is my forecast i been thinking like this and i will not change...this is the strongest high i have seen in the gulf in a long time..NEW ORLEANS IS VERY SAFE I HAVE STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THIS POST...
Geez louise....g'morning ya'll...did I sleep through an entire day or is she really a cat4 already?? Visual looks like an artist's rendering. Too picture perfect. Am I dreaming or is this for real??
Boarding up and staying...unless we're gonna take a direct hit from a cat 5. I'll wait till the last minute to see if she's coming in between Cam and Sabine Pass. Anything other than that I'm staying. What about you?
In both cases virtually non existent and forecast to remain that way through landfall. All we can hope for is an eye replacement cycle on landfall to weaken her
we played MSU(mcNeese St) this past saturday in Hattiesburg,MS.. GO EAGLES! haha and we have a road game now that was supposed to be in Houston on Saturday night... ummm we are still waiting to hear if the game will be postponed and if not where we will play. I dont see how we can postpone another game. we are already having to make up the Tulane game from Katrina...maybe houston could come here and play but then they give up a home game and there are STILL no hotels in hattiesburg due to katrina..
Though I'm no fan of the way any level of government handled Katrina and her aftermath, nor am I, in general, a fan of the Bush administration, in this case, Rita is going to be a no-win situation for Bush.

The federal response will of course be much better than it was for Katrina. Practice makes perfect you know. But he'll be accused of responding better to a disaster in his home state, or to wealthier Americans, or to white Americans.

I just wish Americans could learn to see the entirety of a situation instead of just the half that fits their ideology.
Don't know yet. Maybe I'll wait and see what you think. LOLOL. My parents are taken care of and that was my first concern. I still have to do some things at work. I'm waiting to hear about that first.
Amen-gaffer
I wouldn't expect a game in Hou on Sat. Is it a conference game? BYTW, what did you think of MSU (1-AA vs 1-A)?
I got one thing to say to Texas.....Farewell in the doo to ye fair spanish ladies farewell in the doo to ye ladies of spain for we received orders to sail back to boston, so never more shall we see you again.
So...tell me.. What is the possibility that this high pressure move sooner than expected? I am on the 90n/30w
mark. What can be expected in this area for as wind and surge if it goes in at Galveston. Well we feel any efects of this storm. This town has been lucky so far, we have not gotten the eastern side of a storm since Andrew.
Thanks Put
Thanks for the information on sea termpatures.

Although they are lower than Katrina it must be noted that the track that Rita is taking is longer than the track Katrina took in the Gulf and it will be interesting to sea how much enrgy Rita can taken onboard.

I agree with you completely Stormtop.
Iam, when we bought this house two years ago, I saw a flood map...we're in a 500 yr floodplain. I think (that's only my humble opinion though) that where I am we could sustain a cat 4 surge...but I'm not so sure about a cat 5. I don't know what the exact elevation is here though.
Now would be a good time to drop a nuke on Rita!
Yeh, what the chemical muck coming down the Miss from NOLA won't kill in the gulf, the radiation will. lol
latest infared looks mighty scary, Rita finally has the round eye surrounded by a round blob on covection. I bet 11 with be at least 145, if the winds have caught up.
Storm top, do you think she will be going NW, NNW, N or NE at land fall?

Do you think that will be determined by forward speed of the storm?

It seems the worst case scenario is playing out and with forward speed between 12 and 15mph, she will have Hurrican winds 100 miles inland, and TS much further, if she is going NW,
Does anyone know, as the crow flys, how far it is from Galveston to NOLA?
Since Rita will make landfall moving in a Westerly motion. Does this mean that where ever it hits will be hit by the "weaker" side of the storm first, then get slammed by the stronger north east eye wall. Does this mean that the storm surge on the western half of the storm is not as strong as it is on the eastern side of the storm?
hookedontropics,

Thanks, teach me not to look at sat pics before I have my first quart of expresso (I drink between .5 and 1.5 quarts of express, dark and sweet a day)
i bet by time 2pm or 5pm we will have a cat 5 what do you all think?
722. amd
it looks like, at least on satellite, that the eye is shrinking in size. The winds are probably pushing 140 mph right now.

I'm worried that the eye replacement cycle will begin sooner, before the storm gets to the loop current in the gulf. If that happens, I think it is very possible that the storm will be a cat 5 at some point.
Anybody know what the storm surge will be either side of where she hits - wondering the effect on the refineries at Corpus and Texas City if the hit is Matagorda Is
orion...what? lol, I needed that this morning... I am ancy about this.. I am repositioning client portfolios based on this storm..
Galveston -> NOLA is 285 Miles like a crow.
anyone know if Dr Neil Frank still does the weather in Houston? I remember watching him in Miami years ago. Always remember his advice---Hide from the wind, run from the water.

Dont gamble that your floodplain can take a cat 4 not a cat 5. Do the smart thing--run.
Sebastianjer: Straight-line distance from Galveston to NOLA is about 300 miles.
Here's a WV loop Link Central Fl getting alot of rain & lightning from the outer most bands, Lightning = great intensification? right. I only remember 1 other tropical system from when I was a kid with lightnin, that one blew up.
Thanks GB , just wondering cause TS winds extend out 140 miles
Great advice, Ralph. One should NEVER trust these "500 year floodplain" BS declarations. Always get the h*ll outta Dodge, and always carry flood insurance! It's cheap. The annual premium on my now-flooded (8-10' deep) St. Bernard home was only about $300.00.
I can not get to the NHC from work... Someone post Wave forecasts..

Accuweathers site, has 40 ft surge and waves hitting Galveston Bay....
Houston
we have a doughnut

anybody know the risk to the LBJ space center?
I dont know if anyone has read this guy, but he does breakdowns at MillenniumWeather.com

O.k., now on to Rita... I'm not going to play forecast police, but given the criticality of the forecast (a potential major hurricane landfall in the U.S.), I do want to make a quick point about some forecasts floating around. Several forecasters, keyed into the 500mb ridge depiction on a few models are stating with near certainty that Rita cannot landfall north of south Texas. This is hugely important as central/north Texas has some fairly significant cities while south Texas contains the least populated coastal county in the nation, Kenedy, surrounded by only a couple of cities. This 500mb ridge obsession is wretched oversimplification. For one, the 500mb ridge depiction supporting a south Texas landfall is only put forth by a few models. For another, assuming 500mb is the only steering level is simply incorrect, especially for a strong hurricane; the 300mb and 200mb flow is more supportive of a central or possibly north Texas landfall. I'm not saying a south Texas landfall will not happen! In fact, if those models with the more stout, stagnant 500mb ridges are correct, the deep layer mean flow WOULD be into south Texas, as the 500mb flow actually probably favors landfall even into northern Mexico, while the 300mb and 200mb flow favors Corpus Christi to Matagorda... so, the deep layer mean would be in between. My point is, counting out central and northern Texas is simply incorrect. TPC/NHC's analysis is dead-on correct, in my opinion, and it's one of the reasons my forecast and their's hasn't varied much in the past few days, and it still won't today...


There is very little change in the thinking, but the confidence level has increased significantly. There has been a marked convergence of the model solutions, especially with the eternally-south NOGAPS pulling up to a landfall on the central Texas coast. There has even been some convergence on landfall timing, with most models focusing it around later Saturday morning. Meanwhile, Rita's significant intensification yesterday bolstered the intensity forecast confidence; recall, given her fast motion, I was unsure if she'd make the leap in intensity that I was predicting. Well, she slowed down throughout the day Tuesday and, in fact, if anything, was ahead of schedule on her intensity. Indeed, this morning Rita is already a major hurricane at 105kts and, as TPC/NHC correctly pointed out in their 5AM EDT update, this may well be conservative. So, the previous forecast is very much on target with a slight bump up in intensity and a slight delay in landfall timing (I was previously aiming at early Satuday morning). Now, on to the discussion...


Current Conditions: Those who read the TPC/NHC discussions are likely already aware of this... the recon data has been scant this morning due to aircraft problems. The last report was almost 10hrs ago (as of 7AM EDT Wed); it reported a 965mb pressure and maximum flight level winds of 103kts. Given Rita's extreme efficiency at mixing winds down (dropsondes and SMFR data for the past two days have shown maximum sustained surface winds equal to or, at times, even exceeding, the maximum flight level winds). So, it is fair to say that Rita was probably at about 100kts by then. Since then, no recon. At 07Z (even that's about 5hrs ago) SAB and AFWA both came in with satellite Dvorak estimates of 6.0, equating to 115kts. Since that time, Rita's deepest convection became more symmetric, though just within the past hour or so it has lessened a bit, especially on the east side. So, Rita is likely the same or SLIGHTLY stronger than at 07Z. As such, I would estimate her to be near 115kts; officially, she's at 105kts. As for her motion, without recon we can only use satellite fixes. At least, in that regard, Rita's fairly well defined eye gives us a very high confidence fix... Using the 00Z to 07Z fix positions Rita is moving 279-degrees at 11kts.


Model Discussion: Basically we'll just do the rundown of the model solutions here. Given the very straight forward reason for the differences again (handling of the ridge), this continues to be a "synoptically dull" forecast. Moreover, with the same issues at play for the past two to three days, I begin sounding like a broken record. In fact, in general, even the same model tendencies remain in play, even though the NOGAPS has pulled north. For example, the NAM remains on the south side of the guidance while the GFS remains on the north side. New model runs, same story. So, here's how the models line up with their landfall predictions... The 06Z NAM has landfall near Corpus Christi around midday Sat. The 06Z GFS is in the Freeport or Matagorda area with its landfall Sat AM. The 06Z NOGAPS now has landfall near Port O'Connor, TX Sat afternoon. The 00Z GGEM has shifted south a bit... it now has a Sat AM landfall around Port O'Connor or Port Aransas. The 00Z UKMET is up closer to a Matagorda landfall Sat AM. The 00Z ECMWF is nearly identical, PERHAPS down the coast just a bit nearer to Port O'Connor. The 06Z GFDL is fairly quick, with landfall rather early Sat AM near Matagorda.


My thinking: Difficult to say much here either as there are virtually no changes to the forecast and the models are converging nicely around the previous forecast. Over the past few days we have focused the landfall from Freeport down to Port O'Connor, with the most recent being the furthest south, down towards Port O'Connor. This is near the heart of the model guidance, with perhaps the precise consensus being up just a bit closer to Matagorda. For a three day (plus) forecast this is splitting hairs down to an unforecastable level. That is, those two locations are only about 40 miles apart along the coastline and I don't know of anyone who can claim such accuracy in a three day forecast. I sure can't. So, going against what I generally do, I will simply follow the model consensus and shift my forecast back north slightly, up towards Matagorda. But, with a couple of models still aiming a little further south, towards Corpus Christi or Port Aransas, I would continue to warn that there are some "options" here. And, while I called the pattern "synoptically dull", there is one interesting and difficult complication... as discussed earlier, the flow at 500mb verus 300mb is not lined up terribly well. So, whichever "controls" will drive Rita. Given her strength, I'm not too concerned with going against the southernmost solutions, as that would follow the slightly more shallow steering flow. Nonetheless, all coastal residents in Texas should stay on alert. Though, clearly, the consensus and confidence is building... with the southernmost solution in Corpus Christi and the northernmost near Freeport, we're obviously aiming towards central Texas. Sure, this could change, which is why I say all of coastal Texas needs to continue paying attention, but there is certainly some increase in the expectation that this will verify.


As for Rita's intensity... as she is now ahead of the curve with her intensity, I'm going to peak her a little higher than I previously had. However, given the most recent satellite trends (with weakening convection on her east side) I'm not going to go hog wild with this (although that weakening could, of course, be very temporary). So, I'll peak her out at about 130kts. Then, as she makes the turn, much as in the past couple of forecasts, I'll begin to impart some slow weakening. However, I will still have her making landfall as about a 110kt hurricane. If anything, I would suspect that my landfall intensity is a bit conservative... though I still don't think 100kts is out of the question, which is why I'm setting it at 110kts. Incidentally, the landfall timing should be sometime late Saturday morning, but that's the timing of her center... She should begin impacting the coast by very late Friday night. So, Thursday (assuming the forecast holds by then) and Friday should be used to complete preparations for Rita. Don't wait until early Sat AM with the expectation that she'll "hit" late that morning.






-Gary

What is the population further south from Galveston - and north of Corpus Christi? I'm not familiar with the area - but on the map it looks pretty empty (less a few towns). I'm assuming if Rita comes in just north of Corpus - then damage amounts would be quite small, no?
40 foot surge and waves?!?!?!?!? Bye bye to the Strand!
hookedontropics - thanks the info
I'm in Bridge City Texas. Expect a mandatory evacuation call for Sabine Pass this afternoon. Not sure about a mandatory evacuation for the rest of Jefferson and Orange Counties. My plan is to stay. If she makes a last minute jog to the right and comes in between Galveston and Sabine Pass, I will jump on hwy 62 to 96 and head north.
hookedontropics,

Yea the staff at the local Starbuck's know me on a first name basis. Repostioning client repositioning, pray tell what do you do (I am guessing stock broker/mutal fund manager)
Why are people forecasting 40 foot surge, because of forward speed of Rita or is thier something at work I am not aware of?
jldfish,

(pats belly), Mmmm dounut (drools like Homer Simpson)
Sebastian: Yes, I'm curious too about the winds/distance, since I'm currently in Gonzales and today was when I would've been allowed back to what's left of my home to recover the few things which may have survived. However, the parish is closed, and there's no telling when that will change. In spite of the distance, I suspect the storm may raise and churn up the Gulf enough to put at least some water back into St. Bernard, pushing things back further. Like Hookedontropics, I'd like to see a surge map. Supposedly, given the current state of the levees, a surge of only about 3' and/or heavy rains will cause another, albeit much lesser, flood in areas like St. Bernard and possibly parts of NOLA. Not that it can do any more damage to my home; I'm just sick of hanging around. Chances are I'll drive back to my refuge in NE Georgia today, and come back when Rita is long gone.
yes, and my wife is suspicious of my relations of the starbucks folks...they call me Mr. Machiato..lol
SaCaCh - Great post! Thanks. The analysis is quite insightful and not filled with drama like so many posts.
stll wondering about risk to LBJ space center

(NASA fan)

jldfish, not yet, close though. When the eye expands again and you will see the whole system will actually look more like a saw blade. A giant core with small fringes on the outside. I predicted by 2:00pm - 5:00 EST today.
both wave and surge.. i will find link...
ok no true donut but ir looks scary
I see

tnx for link
A strong CAT 5 will loose feeder bands.
how do you post a pic?
Since Rita will make landfall moving in a Westerly motion. Does this mean that where ever it hits will be hit by the "weaker" side of the storm first, then get slammed by the stronger north east eye wall. Does this mean that the storm surge on the western half of the storm is not as strong as it is on the eastern side of the storm?
Hookedontropics,

Yea the place (Starbucks) needs a translation guide to go with the coffee. Took me a couple of months to learn the things I commonly order ie:

Grande Cof (pronounced cough) Day Dub Blackeye - Coffee of the Day with 4 expresso shots

Grande Cof Frap Dub Blackeye - Coffee Frappannico with 4 expresson shots

And from what I heard/know it differs what city you are in, sometimes even different stores in the same area.

That and it changes from time to time.
hookedontropics,

check these links about uploading photos

http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/faq/photoupload.html

http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/uploadimage.html
Link

Finally, here is the link that shows the wave forecast, DOES NOT INCLUDE SURGE
new thread ya'll
Dr. Masters has a blog update
Here's the link to the main page of the UCF damage prediction estimates, it also has estimates for the oil industy in the area. Make sure you've scolled to the right storm (it covers them all) & the oil estimates have a different link in the page than the land estimates. It's quite interactive(you can get it down to the major roads) once you get to the storm, was pretty right on with Katrina, they've posted their before & afters on that one Link
759. SEFL
"expresso shots"

FYI

ESpresso
SEV WEATHER NEXT 24 HRS
**ADVISORIES: A Hurricane Warning is in effect beyond 60nm in all areas. A small craft advisory is in effect from the Atchafalaya River to Pensacola out 60nm. Advisories and warnings are likely for all other areas within the next 24 hours.
**WEATHER: None currently. Thunderstorms may develop in deeper waters from East Breaks to Desoto Canyon this afternoon and early this evening.
**SEAS: Seas higher than forecast in or near any thunderstorms or squalls.
**WINDS: Winds briefly in excess of forecast conditions are possible within thunderstorms and squalls.
_______________________________________________________

SWELLS/TIDES/CURRENTS Building easterly swells are expected across the northern Gulf from today into Thursday. Tides are forecast to become slightly above normal for the Texas coast from today into Thursday. Tides are forecast to become above normal from the Louisiana waters and eastward from today into Thursday. Currents are forecast to become slightly above normal across the Texas waters from today into tonight before becoming above normal Thursday. Currents are expected to become above normal from the Louisiana waters and eastward from today into Thursday.

TROPICAL WEATHER
GULF OF MEXICO: At 0400CDT Wednesday, Hurricane Rita was located near 24.3N 84.6W, or about 175 miles west of Key West, Florida. This system is moving west at 14mph, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a minimum central pressure of 956 mb. Please refer to the latest bulletin for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA: Widely scattered thunderstorms are noted over the northeastern Caribbean, as well as over parts of the west-central Caribbean, between Jamaica and Panama. None of this activity is expected to develop over the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN: At 0400CDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Philippe was located near 19.5N 57.5W or about 325 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. The system is moving northward near 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum central pressure of 994 mb. Please refer to the latest bulletin for more information. Three tropical waves are noted between 35W and 50W, south of 19N. These waves are moving westward at about 15mph, with no development expected along any of these areas. Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected through Thursday.

SPECIAL NOTES
Wilkens Weather Technologies is pleased to announce a new service available to all clients through our website. Beginning Monday, July 18th, 2005, our clients will be able to access a streaming video tropical weather discussion, which will provide a summary of the weather situation in the Atlantic basin each day throughout the hurricane season. Featured will be details of any tropical system which has potential to significantly affect the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea, what those effects are likely to be and where and when those effects are likely to occur.

**** 24 HOUR FORECAST / Time Period: Wednesday 06:00 to Thursday 06:00 ****
24 HOUR TEXAS WEATHER
Texas waters near shore/offshore: Partly cloudy today. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight. Vis 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms.

24 HOUR LOUISIANA WEATHER
Louisiana waters near shore/offshore: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms today. Becoming mostly cloudy with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. Vis 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms. Waters to the east of the Delta: Becoming mostly cloudy with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. Vis: 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms.

***LEGEND:***
Data is shown in the order of winds, then waves. NS = Near Shore Winds. OS = Offshore Winds. OCS = Outer Continental Shelf Winds. Wind = All Winds, (Near Shore, Offshore, and Outer Continental Shelf). Waves given are in the format of the range of waves in feet followed by a '/' and then the period in seconds. If no wave direction is specified, it is the same as the wind direction. M indicates a mixed sea condition. Any Other direction given indicates a swell from that particular direction is the primary wave.
Wed 06:00 to Wed 12:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS N 8-13 N 8-13 NNE 12-17 NE 15-22 ENE 15-22 ENE 15-22
OS N 10-15 N 10-15 NNE 15-22 NNE 18-25 NE 20-25 NE 20-25
OCS N 12-17 N 13-18 NNE 15-22 NNE 20-30 NE 25-30 NE 25-30
Waves
02F 2-3/5 M 2-3/12 M 2-4/12 M 4-6/12 M 4-6/12 M 4-6/12
05F 2-4/5 M 2-4/12 M 3-5/12 M 4-7/12 M 5-7/12 M 5-7/12
10F 2-4/5 M 2-4/12 M 4-6/12 M 5-8/12 M 6-9/12 M 7-9/12
25F 2-4/5 M 3-5/12 M 4-7/12 M 6-9/12 M 7-10/12 M 8-12/12
50F 2-4/5 M 3-5/12 M 5-8/12 M 7-10/12 M 8-13/12 M 10-15/12
100F 2-4/5 M 3-5/12 M 5-8/12 M 7-10/12 M 8-13/12 M 10-15/12
Comments: S PADRE TO PENSACOLA WINDS BECOMING THESE LEVELS DURING THE MORNING, WAVES INCREASING TO THESE LEVELS DURING THE MORNING
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed 12:00 to Wed 18:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NE 7-12 VAR 5-10 NE 15-20 NE 20-28 ENE 15-20 ENE 15-20
OS N 10-15 NNE 10-15 NNE 15-22 NE 25-32 ENE 20-25 ENE 20-25
OCS N 12-17 NNE 12-17 NNE 18-25 NNE 25-35 NE 25-35 NE 25-35
Waves
02F M 2-4/12 M 2-4/12 M 3-5/13 M 5-7/13 M 5-7/13 M 5-7/13
05F M 3-5/12 M 3-5/12 M 4-6/13 M 6-9/13 M 6-9/13 M 6-9/13
10F M 3-5/12 M 3-5/12 M 5-7/13 M 7-10/13 M 7-10/13 M 8-12/13
25F M 4-7/12 M 4-6/12 M 6-9/13 M 8-13/13 M 9-13/13 M 10-13/13
50F M 4-7/12 M 4-7/12 M 7-10/13 M 8-13/13 M 10-15/13 M 12-17/13
100F M 4-7/12 M 5-8/12 M 8-12/13 M 10-15/13 M 12-17/13 M 15-20/13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed 18:00 to Thu 00:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS N 5-10 NE 8-15 NE 15-20 E 15-20 E 17-22 E 17-22
OS N 8-15 NNE 12-20 NE 20-27 ENE 20-30 ENE 20-30 E 20-30
OCS NNE 15-22 NNE 18-25 NNE 51-32 NE 30-40 ENE 30-40 E 30-40
Waves
02F M 3-5/13 M 3-5/13 M 4-6/13 M 4-6/13 M 5-8/13 M 5-7/13
05F M 4-6/13 M 5-7/13 M 5-8/13 M 7-10/13 M 7-10/13 M 6-9/13
10F M 6-8/13 M 6-9/13 M 7-12/13 M 9-13/13 M 9-13/13 M 8-12/13
25F M 7-10/13 M 7-10/13 M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13
50F M 8-12/13 M 8-13/13 M 12-17/13 M 12-17/13 M 12-17/13 M 12-17/13
100F M 8-12/13 M 10-14/13 M 12-17/13 M 15-22/13 M 15-22/13 M 15-22/13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thu 00:00 to Thu 06:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NNE 12-17 NE 15-25 ENE 20-27 ENE 25-35 E 18-25 ESE 17-22
OS NNE 15-20 NE 20-27 NE 22-32 ENE 32-42 E 25-32 ESE 20-30
OCS NNE 18-25 NE 22-30 NNE 32-42 NE 40-55 E 30-40 SE 25-35
Waves
02F M 4-6/13 M 4-7/13 M 5-8/13 M 5-8/13 M 6-9/13 M 5-8/12
05F M 5-8/13 M 6-8/13 M 7-10/13 M 8-13/13 M 8-13/13 M 8-13/12
10F M 7-10/13 M 9-12/13 M 9-13/13 M 12-17/13 M 10-15/13 M 11-16/12
25F M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 16-24/13 M 12-17/13 M 13-18/12
50F M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 12-17/13 M 20-27/13 M 15-20/13 M 13-18/12
100F M 10-15/13 M 12-17/13 M 15-22/13 M 20-27/13 M 15-22/13 M 13-18/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**** 48 HOUR FORECAST / Time Period: Thursday 06:00 to Friday 06:00 ****
48 HOUR TEXAS WEATHER
Texas waters near shore/offshore: Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Becoming mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night. Vis 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms.

48 HOUR LOUISIANA WEATHER
Louisiana waters near shore/offshore and Waters to the East of the Delta: Becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy with scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and squalls. **CAUTION IS ADVISED** Vis 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms, and 1mi or less in squalls.

Thu 06:00 to Thu 12:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NE 15-22 NE 20-27 NE 20-30 E 25-35 E 20-25 ESE 15-20
OS NE 18-25 NE 25-32 NE 30-45 E 30-45 ESE 20-30 SE 20-27
OCS NNE 20-30 NNE 25-35 NNE 35-55 E 40-70 ESE 30-40 SE 25-35
Waves
02F 4-7/13 5-8/13 6-9/13 6-9/13 6-9/12 5-8/12
05F 6-9/13 7-10/13 8-13/13 8-13/13 8-13/12 8-13/12
10F 8-13/13 10-15/13 12-17/13 12-17/13 10-15/12 10-15/12
25F 10-15/13 12-17/13 18-25/13 18-25/13 10-15/12 10-15/12
50F 12-18/13 15-22/13 20-27/13 20-27/13 12-20/12 10-15/12
100F 12-18/13 18-25/13 20-27/13 22-30/13 12-20/12 10-15/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thu 12:00 to Thu 18:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NNE 20-27 NE 25-30 E 25-35 E 25-35 E 20-25 ESE 15-20
OS NNE 25-30 NNE 30-45 E 40-60 E 30-50 ESE 20-30 SE 18-25
OCS NNE 25-35 NNE 40-70 E 60-99 ESE 40-70 SE 25-40 SSE 20-30
Waves
02F 5-8/13 6-9/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/12 5-7/12
05F 7-10/13 9-12/13 10-15/13 8-13/13 8-13/12 6-9/12
10F 10-15/13 12-18/13 13-20/13 12-20/13 10-15/13 7-10/12
25F 12-18/13 18-25/13 20-30/13 18-25/13 10-18/12 8-12/12
50F 18-25/13 20-27/13 25-35/13 20-30/13 12-20/12 8-12/12
100F 18-25/13 25-30/13 30-40/13 25-35/13 12-20/12 8-12/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thu 18:00 to Fri 00:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS N 20-30 NE 25-35 E 25-40 E 25-35 ESE 18-25 SE 15-20
OS N 25-35 NNE 35-50 E 40-70 E 35-50 SE 20-25 SE 18-25
OCS N 30-40 N 60-90 E 60-99 ESE 35-55 SE 20-30 SSE 20-27
Waves
02F 6-9/13 6-9/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/12 4-7/12
05F 9-12/13 9-12/13 10-15/13 8-13/13 6-9/12 5-8/12
10F 15-20/13 12-20/13 13-25/13 12-20/13 8-13/13 6-9/12
25F 18-25/13 18-30/13 25-40/13 15-25/13 8-13/12 7-10/12
50F 20-30/13 25-40/13 25-40/13 15-30/13 10-15/12 7-10/12
100F 20-30/13 25-40/13 35-45/13 15-30/13 10-15/12 7-10/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fri 00:00 to Fri 06:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NNW 20-30 NE 30-40 E 25-35 ESE 25-35 E 20-30 E 15-25
OS NNW 30-40 NE 40-65 E 45-75 SE 25-35 SE 20-30 SE 15-25
OCS NNW 40-50 NE 55-99 ESE 55-99 SSE 30-40 SSE 20-30 SSE 15-25
Waves
02F 6-9/13 6-9/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/12 5-7/12
05F 9-12/13 10-15/13 10-15/13 8-13/13 6-9/12 6-9/12
10F 12-18/13 15-30/13 15-25/13 12-20/13 7-10/12 7-10/12
25F 18-25/13 40-55/13 25-45/13 15-25/13 8-12/12 7-10/12
50F 25-35/13 40-55/13 25-45/13 15-30/13 10-15/12 7-10/12
100F 25-35/13 40-55/13 40-50/13 15-30/13 10-15/12 7-10/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**** 72 HOUR FORECAST / Time Period: Friday 06:00 to Saturday 06:00 ****
72 HOUR WEATHER
Texas waters: Becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy with scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and squalls. **CAUTION IS ADVISED** Vis: 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms, 1mi or less in squalls. Louisiana waters: Mostly cloudy to cloudy with scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and squalls. **Caution is advised** Vis: 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms, and 1mi or less in squalls. Waters to the East of the Delta: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Vis: 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms.

Fri 06:00 to Fri 18:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NNW 25-35 NE 30-40 E 25-35 ESE 25-35 SE 20-30 SE 15-25
OS NNW 35-50 NE 40-50 E 35-50 SE 25-35 SE 20-30 SE 15-25
OCS NNW 40-55 NE 55-99 ESE 35-55 SSE 25-35 SSE 20-30 SSE 15-25
Waves
02F 6-9/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/13 5-7/12 4-6/12
05F 9-12/13 10-20/13 8-13/13 8-13/13 6-9/12 5-7/12
10F 12-18/13 20-35/13 12-16/13 10-15/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
25F 18-25/13 40-55/13 18-25/13 10-15/13 8-12/12 6-8/12
50F 25-35/13 40-55/13 20-30/13 12-18/13 8-12/12 6-8/12
100F 25-35/13 40-55/13 25-35/13 12-18/13 8-12/12 6-8/12
Comments: MATAGORDA IS TO GALVESTON MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE EYEWALL ARE LIKELY TO BE 120-140MPH, MAXIMUM WAVES IN/NEAR THE EYEWALL ARE LIKELY TO BE 50-60FT IN DEEP WATER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fri 18:00 to Sat 06:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NW 20-30 SE 45-99 SE 25-35 SE 20-35 SE 15-25 SE 15-25
OS W 30-40 SSE 40-75 SE 25-45 SE 20-35 SE 15-25 SE 15-25
OCS WSW 40-50 S 35-55 SSE 30-50 SSE 20-35 SSE 15-25 SSE 15-25
Waves
02F 5-8/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/13 4-6/12 4-6/12
05F 8-12/13 15-25/13 8-13/13 7-10/13 5-8/12 5-7/12
10F 12-18/13 40-55/13 12-16/13 9-14/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
25F 18-25/13 40-55/13 15-25/13 9-14/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
50F 20-30/13 30-40/13 15-30/13 9-14/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
100F 20-30/13 25-35/13 15-30/13 9-14/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
Comments: MATAGORDA IS TO GALVESTON MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE EYEWALL ARE LIKELY TO BE 120-140MPH, MAXIMUM WAVES IN/NEAR THE EYEWALL ARE LIKELY TO BE 50-60FT IN DEEP WATER
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK TX

Day Wind Conditions
(Avg for the Day) Wave Conditions (Ft=Feet, F=Fathoms, R=Random) Weather Conditions
SAT DECRG GRADUALLY 02F MIX DEC 4-6FT SQUALLS
TO SW-S 20-30MPH 10F MIX DEC 9-13FT SQUALLS
25/50F MIX DEC 9-13FT SQUALLS
100F MIX DEC 9-13FT SQUALLS
SUN SSE-SSW 20-25MPH 02F S DEC 3-5FT MC/SCT TS
10F S DEC 6-8FT MC/SCT TS
25/50F S DEC 6-8FT MC/SCT TS
100F S DEC 6-8FT MC/SCT TS
MON SW-S 15-20MPH 02F SE-S 2-4FT PC/ISO TS
10F SE-S 4-6FT PC/ISO TS
25/50F SE-S 4-6FT PC/ISO TS
100F SE-S 4-6FT PC/ISO TS
TUE S-SE 10-20MPH 02F SE-S 2-3FT PC/ISO TS
10F SE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
25/50F SE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
100F SE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK LA/MS/AL

Day Wind Conditions
(Avg for the Day) Wave Conditions (Ft=Feet, F=Fathoms, R=Random) Weather Conditions
SAT DEC SE-S 15-25MPH 02F DEC MIX 4-6FT MC/SCT TS
10F DEC MIX 7-10FT MC/SCT TS
25/50F DEC MIX 7-10FT MC/SCT TS
100F DEC MIX 7-10FT MC/SCT TS
SUN DEC SE-S 15-20MPH 02F DEC S 3-5FT MC/SCT TS
10F DEC S 5-8FT MC/SCT TS
25/50F DEC S 5-8FT MC/SCT TS
100F DEC S 5-8FT MC/SCT TS
MON SE-S 10-20MPH 02F SE-S 2-3FT PC/ISO TS
10F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
25/50F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
100F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
TUE ESE-SE 10-20MPH 02F SE-S 2-3FT PC/ISO TS
10F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
25/50F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
100F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS

Mandatory evacuation of Mustang Island (Port Aransas). All residents to be off The Island by Noon tomorrow (Thursday). I'm getting a "vibe" that Rita's Wrath will put Ground Zero at Quintana Beach/Freeport. About an hour West of Galveston; 180 miles East of Corpus.