WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Key West: brace for a strengthening Rita

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:17 AM GMT on September 19, 2005

Rita continues to slowly strengthen. The hurricane hunters have found a steady pressure fall of 2 mb between 3am and 6am EDT this morning, and an increase in winds at their flight level of 5000 feet from 57 to 64 knots. The latest penetration at 7:30am found a pressure of 997 mb and winds of 64 knots at flight level, the same levels as recorded at 6am, so Rita has not intensified in the past two hours.

However, the rate of intensification should quicken later today as the shear over Rita decreases, and Rita will likely be at least a strong Category 1 hurricane or Category 2 hurricane when it passes near Key West Tuesday morning. There is still a small chance Rita could intensify to a Category 3 hurricane when it passes the Keys. The Keys can handle a strong Category 2 hurricane without loss of life--barely. If I lived in the Keys I would stay put today, assuming I had a sturdy shelter to ride out the storm. A 6 - 8 foot storm surge--or a foot higher if Rita hits at high tide--is expected over Key West, and less further north. Even if Rita suddenly strengthens to a Category 3, the winds would not have time to build up a storm surge characteristic of a Cat 3 hurricane until after she passes the Keys. Wind damage would be severe over Key West, however. This all assumes Rita makes a direct hit on Key West. The latest track forecast takes her south of Key West 50 miles or so, sparing the city the winds of the eyewall, and Key West may escape with only light to moderate damage from Rita.



While the Keys are likely to escape with a hard but bearable hit from a strengthening Category 1 or 2 hurricane, the Gulf Coast will not be so lucky. There is nothing in the long-range forecast that I can see that will prevent Rita from intensifying into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. The entire stretch of coast from 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas to Mobile, Alabama is at risk--no one can say with any confidence where Rita will hit this far in advance. Texas and Louisiana are at the highest risk. The current model trend is to recurve Rita earlier and earlier, so residents from Corpus Christi to New Orleans need to be particulary concerned.

Philippe
As for Philippe--which is now a hurricane--we do not need to be concerned with him for at least five days, and probably never. The odds are over 95% that Phillipe will stay out to sea and not affect any land areas except Bermuda.

I'll have a more in-depth update by noon EDT today.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looks like the overnight hours were good for the SE coast of Florida. I am sure we will be getting some rain and wind, but the cone continues moving south. Sounds like the keys will not be so lucky.
Dr. Master's....

Any idea what the Miami area could experience from a Cat 2 or Cat 3 that is south of Key West? This does look like a top heavy storm. I am thinking we will experience some rain and maybe tropical storm winds? Thanks for your posts!
anyone know whats expected of phil?

going to get lost in the atlantic or an east coast landfall? guesses?
That new GFDL for Rita stinks.

Phil looks to be headed out to the fish, but we will just have to see if he slips through the weakness in the high to the N. If not then I would expect a westward turn, but again it looks as if he will make it through the weakness.
Thanx Dr. Masters for confirming my earlier post that a central or se La hit by Rita later this week is a strong possibility. Dr. Masters would a slower or faster forward motion make a La hit more likely? I believe that a forward motion of 10mph or less would make Se louisana a more likely target. What are your thoughts please.
WOW..the local news just showed a graphic that if Rita goes down the middle of the cone, she would bring only strong tropical storm winds with hurricane force gusts to the lower keys. The hurricane force winds would skirt the lower keys. This is the news that people in Key West watch.......
Question? Why the Hurricane Warning issued up to palm beach county now
And reissued for the Northern Bahamas
Expanding windfield as Rita gets better organized probably the cause for extending warnings. And maybe some uncertainty on path.
I would think Tropical Storm Warning, hurricane seems a little strong to me as confidence in the path goes.
WOW, GFDL, and NHC98, models have now shifted to over Louisiana for the second landfall of Rita. Will now be waiting to see if UKMET joins the party over LA next.
there is not a hurricane warning for palm beach county....there IS a hurricane watch for Miami-Dade and Broward
StormJunkie what is your take on the path of Rita after she enters the gulf??
Your geuss is as good as mine on track GetReal. Pretty much everyone watches the models for longrange forcasting. THat being said they seem to keep shifting E. I think how far E they shift will be the question. Once you get to looking at one to two day forcast the WV can tell a lot, but I think right now we just have to watch the models and see how they trend.
Southbeach dude, I have a warning pop-up on my computer from our local news and it popped up and said that a Hurricane Warning is issued for Broward, Glades, Hendry and Palm Beach County.
NHC:

Any deviation to the north in the track of Rita could require an extension of the Hurricane Warning northward along the southeast coast of Florida later this morning

Broward and Miami Dade folks wont do much of anything until we get a warning.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE TROPICAL WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH IN THE TRACK OF RITA COULD REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

Guess they didn't want to wait.
Just on the news, Miami CBS...a mandatory evacuation will begin at 9 A.M. for the lower Keys south of the 7 mile bridge. They are using the school buses, city transit buses and the airport shuttle buses to get out those that do not have transportation and the homeless.

Also updates from Max Mayfield and crew on air in 30 minutes.
Not able to watch that Ft. Laud can you come back and give an update?
Sure can ProgressivePulse.

Here is alink for all local statements and Watches/warnings.
Link
With this consistently eastward shift we've been seeing, how likely is it that this may end up in (sorry to say) the Mobile, Panhandle area again?
Thanks FtLaud. Looks like our local Jumped the gun or there was an error in this pop-up that I have, still shows hurricane warning. Seemed odd givin the growing confidence in the track
I am back from my usual weekend disappearances (darn reality). More and More signs of fall are creeping into my hood.

As far as Rita, I am hoping and praying I am wrong that the New Orleans - western Flordia Panhandle is not the target for the year. Hard to believe we are already at R and still have more than 2 months to go in hurricane season (and maybe longer, remenber hurrcanies have formed as late as Christmas)
Needless to say, I'm getting more and more concerned with each model run. This may be our first direct hit in SWLA since Audrey in '57.
Michael, are you in TX?
Does anyone know at what category storm they would start evacuating Houston?
ProgressivePulse

Max Mayfield said they are considering(he said just in a little bit and CBS is saying by 11:00 adv) putting Miami-Dade county under the Hurricane warning. He said there concern is any slight shift to the north. He also talked about storm surge for the lower Keys to be 6-8 feet on both sides of the islands.
whats up ftlaud im in plantation where we havent prepared for S***.... at least until the 11am advisory
Max Mayfield said they are considering(he said just in a little bit and CBS is saying by 11:00 adv) putting Miami-Dade county under the Hurricane warning. He said there concern is any slight shift to the north. He also talked about storm surge for the lower Keys to be 6-8 feet on both sides of the islands.

thats bad news for Broward...all the idiots will be packing the malls looking for "bargains". People think a TS warning/Hurricane Watch are nothing. Schools wont close and businesses will stay open. but hey whats the big deal..just a little wind and rain
mayfield was reffering to the 11am advisory... and they are also considering putting a tropical storm watch for palm bch to jupiter as well
lol lefty must be passed out he was on until like 4 am
FTLPunk--plantation here as well. They have been draining the canal behind me since yesterday. at least they dont wait for a warning. I'm waiting for 11am...people dont realize the damage Katrina did over here.
FtLauderdalepunk

Check out the link I gave above. Then click on your location and the links then are given for all local statements and warnings.

As Max said, and I trust him and Ed Rappaport, they are concerned about any slight shift to the north. The north side being the dirty side of the storm. If Rita takes a slight shift to the north, that means more wind and rain for us.

FtLPunk...just so you know...I am just west of 441 in Ft Lauderdale...so that makes us neighbors...sort of LOL
i work at the publix on broward .. that is going to be a nightmare today
ftlaud i see no link
Ralph
You are so right about the complacency, yet some of my neighbors have started putting up the shutters. We did have a lot of damage here from Katrina and then of course for me no power for 6 days.
My employer is another story though. They did not close for Katrina until 6pm. I was thoroughly scared driving home from Hollywood to Davie Blvd on I95.
Link
Try this one :)

Teresa
If the watchs are for Gades and hendry counties ,why is the track so far south? Those counties are north of that. I don't put ANY trust in the NHC after going through Charley last year in Punta Gorda. We still have house that don't have roofs and 1400 people in Fema trailers.
nice to see im not the only weather nut in plantation lol
Glad to see I'm not the only one a little concerned about Rita - I live in Plantation (Pine Island Ridge) but work for FAU in Boca. FAU will hold out until the very last second as per usual to cancel classes. I'm just wondering how serious this concern really is at this point for a jog north - all the computer models I've seen look pretty tightly clustered to go well south of Miami but I am by no means an expert.
Grounded unfortunately i have to disagree with you ...Punta Gorda was in the Cone of error. People say that the nhc messed up but they did not.. You all had just as good of chance of getting hit as tampa
Max Mayfield on NBC6(MIAMI):

would take much at all to bring hurricane conditions to MiamiDade/Broward. They are debating putting warning up in MiamiDade (maybe Broward) at 11am

Very concerned about eye coming through Keys... "no way in world" keys can miss this...
cloud did u lose power for katrina
Ftlauder...I agree with you on the track of Charley last year. Punta Gorda was in the cone. The problem is that everyone seems to concentrate on the middle of that cone and then they think since they are not in the middle they will be fine.
I just switched the TV over to NBC6 and Max is on there saying they are now also considering including Broward in the Hurricane warning. He said they are cutting this on pretty close on the forecast track.

I wasn't here for Andrew, but as I recall it was forecasted for Palm Beach and of course came in much, much farther south in Homestead. IMHO prepare for the worst and hope for the best for anywhere in south FLA.
We didn't lose power at all - very lucky! And yes, that Publix is going to be a madhouse this afternoon and tonight.
i lost power for 3 days and i live 1 block west of you...I dont want to goto work today but i guess i have to :((
Joe Bastardi:

If you are in key west, leave now..

Very likely a Cat 3 or he says possible Cat 4.
FTLPunk

I know that Publix well. You will be sooooo swamped!

:)
LMAO @ BASTARDI HES ALWAYS STIRRING THE POT
SWLAStormFanatic:
Houston Chronicle

the article suggests a cat 4/5 would cause an evacuation but doesn't go into details.
Another day of crowd control lining people up and down the aisles to checkout
FTLPunk--

Thats my publix too..i went yesterday...hate the rush...i wonder if all the bread is gone. Target is good for last minute supplies...never that busy...
The problem with my store is if a mouse farts we lose power... I can guarentee we will be out of stuff by this afternoon esp if we go under a Hurricane Warning
lmao? what does that mean?
laughing my azz off
LMAO @ hooked :o)
teresa do u have an aol name
Trying to get an idea of what I am seeing, all the convection around an open void, is that the eye trying to form? or just that, a void
Bastardi has been calling for this storm for almost 8 days now. He is pretty damn good at what he does, alot of folks on here "psuedo" weatherpeople don't like him, but I have been following him for a couple of years, he is good and when he is bad he will tell you.
The convection is wrapping around the center and eventually the center will tighten up and become more symetrical
If NHC is so good at forcasting the storms then why do they put a cone of sometime two to three states wide and hundreds of miles. No knows what a hurricane can do or move. the jogs of them are unexpected, just as Katrina did over southern Florida. And NHC will never be able to predict the path except wind where the high and low presures are at.
Ground After your comments I think I speak for all of us when I say that you know nothing about weather and the venting about Hurricane Charley Board is on AOL... Have a nice day
FtLauderdalePunk

I do have an aol name, but not using aol software at this time. I am having problems with it and have been unable to correct them. You can send me an email through the wunderground mail.
blogers city/statePosted by: whitewabit, 7:55 PM EDT on September 11, 2005
I'm trying to get a location where all of our blogers live want to then make a directory that I will post on my blog
just looking for city (and maybe location in that city if it is large) and state..no other info needed or wanted..Thanks to all who will participate in this endevor..
tks...please make post on the first thread of my blog.
would like to include all that live outside of the states
also..will be interesting to see how wide spread our blogers are in the world..
Whitewabit City/State List
Looking at the latest track forecasts is corpus gonna dodge this one? I live 5 miles from the water and have horses to evacuate?
hard to say texgal corpus is in the center of the projected path... it is early and that probably will change in time more than likely a little further north towards the houston area..
Gotta go clean up the lawn furniture and close up the windows...I will check back in for the 11:00 advisory.
I Will have to work from 1:30 to 10:00pm.
thanks wb; its been a while since this area got hit tho i have all my family in houston
Hooked, Got to agree. I started appreciating Joe more during Ivan.
good morning all, I am trying to my realitives to come here from Key West. They are very unwilling to leave. Anyone else think that locals are having the "not going to be a big storm" attitude?
Model runs....

Link
interesting those models go anywhere from corpus to mobile... hard to say it shall be fun to watch.
weatherdude65,
pretty wide cone, huh? thanks for the link
It will be interesting to watch.....what I have noticed is with each model run, they come further and further east.
very wide....everyone needs to keep an eye on this one
has anyone seen a new GFS run? when does it come out and how often is it updated?
weatherdude, kinda like Ivan and Katrina kept being adjusted west.
We can't overlook climatology. I know this has been a year that defies climatology. However, it shouldn't be overlooked that it would be very rare for a hurricane to get into the extreme NW gulf on Rita's track this late in the season.

Much more favorable path climatologically speaking is for Rita to go to anywhere from LA to the FL panhandle.
1935 Labor Day Hurricane

Jeff,

What else do we know about the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane? That seems to be the Hurricane Camille of the Keys, so it'd be good to know the when and how much of it.

Has a strengthening trend like the one posted (if really tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane in 42 hours, something like a 3 mb/hour drop in pressure for 2 days!) recurred in recorded history? Was the Caribbean Sea / Western Atlantic experiencing record high SSTs like we are this year?
looks as though this ridge is weakening a bit over nw and nc Florida as a result of a very weak trof pusing southeast. perhaps this slight weakening in the ridge is the reason for the current trend to shift the models. you can see the weakness pushing south in this water vapor loop
Link

Evolution does that mean it will abel to go more towards miami?
Why is the news focusing on saying it is heading straight for Brownsfield? Most of the models show a more northwardly push and the GFS was the most accurate with Katrina (at least from what I saw) and the only model close to Brownsfield is the NHC (is that a composite of others or what?) Sorry for not being more informed, but I am in Lafayette, LA and I exhausted most of my supplies helping others with Katrina. The GFS looks like it is heading close to us, and the heat wave is only supposed to last 2 or 3 more days here, and she will still be in the gulf with more of a chance to turn north when the high leaves. So basically all of us from Tex to Alabama need to be worried... god, not again already! The local weatherman here are saying that she is heading for Mexico.. which I think is wrong to say, because it gives us here a wrong sense of security. Maybe they just don't want to scare people so soon after Katrina.. who knows. I am also noticing she is getting wider, do they have any way to estimate her size growth?Anyway thanks and appreciate the help to a newbie...
Miami Dade EOC has issued a mandatory evacuuation for mobile home residents, and a voluntary evacuation for Zone A, which is basically everything east of Biscayne Bay and the Intercoastal Waterway, including all the beaches. No real signs of panic buying in the store yet, but I think that's because we've all still got stuff left from Katrina.
I hope Rita doesn't come close to New Orleans. Right now with the weakened levy system a severe thunderstorm would be catostrophic.
how about not rebuilding new orleans in its present location?? and how about not letting people back in until hurricane season is over....i don't know, seems to just make sense
I hate to add salt to an open wound, but it looks like Phillipe may miss the trof? Anyone else seeing this?
yes hooked....i am just noticing that with Phillipe as well....I am leaning more and more towards a western turn
looks that way to me as well.
Phillipe may be just as large a problem as Rita.

Rita is more of a problem today.

Question:
does it make sense to rebuild in Key west... Yes, it will not be funded by federal dollars, and let people build there is they choose

Does it make sense to rebuild in NO... Will insurance companies cover any property in an aquarium? Let, private agencies use their own money to rebuild NO... I think the arguement lies with who is paying to rebuild.
mornin everyone,, just noticing each model run brings rita back more n more east anyone else seeing this?? Im from panhandle in Fla. could we possibly be affected??
I think we will see a gradual shift in Rita's track to the right, its just a feeling, and I hope I'm wrong, and I don't want this thing to hit anywhere along the gulf coast, but I looks like the bulls eye is on us here in LA especially Galveston to Grand Isle. I don't think that ridge will build and last as long as they think.
Re: Houston evacuation

Houston itself does not need to evacuate in case of a major hurricane in the same way that Miami or New Orleans would. The city proper is at elevation 34 feet, 50 miles from the Gulf of Mexico and 10 miles from Galveston Bay.

Most of Houston's population is on the north and west of the city, further away still from the ocean.

Hurricane Alicia (1983) bulls-eyed Houston as well as any hurricane could, but she was a very weak 3 and I believe even a weak 2.

The nightmare scenario for Houston is a storm landfalling at San Luis Pass or Surfside Beach, on the west of Galveston Island. That would put the main part of the surge into the bay at the Bolivar Roads between Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula.

At that point, the shore of the bay would be like the Gulf itself. Galveston Bay is lined with petrochemical facilities, and some 1.5 million people live under 20ft. elevation along its western shore: Galveston, Texas City, La Marque, Dickinson, San Leon, Kemah, Seabrook, the Clear Lake area, Pasadena, La Porte, Deer Park, Bayport.

Also, Houston's main port is on Buffalo Bayou, a kind of river that runs east-west into the bay. If a surge came up the bay, it could go up the bayou. How far depends on the intensity of the storm.

Alicia sent her highest surge into Clear Lake and Seabrook (12 ft). The Ship Channel was spared.

In case of a landfalling hurricane, people would really only need to evacuate to the north side of the city to find relative safety. Yes, there would be wind damage and rain, but most hurricanes aren't going to kill you that way.
whats everyones feelin about phillipe?? u think he will stay out in atlantic? or turn toward the US?
878
WTNT23 KNHC 191446
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z MON SEP 19 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......125NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 74.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.4N 76.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.4N 81.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.7N 84.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.5N 88.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 75.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$


i hav updated my blog
Here is what I think:

The New Orleans mayor is an idiot, and God is going to prove him an idiot by bringing Rita right into his city again, destroying the levee system completely, destroying the city (AGAIN!) and leaving him blaming the federal government for his mistakes.

If there is anyone that needs to resign because of Katrina, it is him.

I really do believe this is headed for the NO, maybe slightly west of the city in LO, this time. Cat 3 at landfall. Max out at upper cat 4 in the gulf. MAYBE cat 5. 150 mph winds max

100. deb1
nbc6.net talking about the 11am advisory. not on the NHC site yet though.
Here are my guesses right now (NOT the official forecast):

Current - 22.8/74.6 - 997mb - 60mph
6 hrs - 23.1/76.0 - 990mb - 70mph
12 hrs - 23.4/77.1 - 975mb - 90mph
24 hrs - 23.6/79.0 - 959mb - 105mph
36 hrs - 24.5/82.1 - 948mb - 120mph
48 hrs - 25.0/85.3 - 931mb - 140mph
60 hrs - 25.4/87.6 - 916mb - 160mph
72 hrs - 26.0/89.0 - 924mb - 155mph
96 hrs - 27.9/93.1 - 926mb - 160mph
114 hrs - 28.6/96.0 - 928mb - 150mph - Landfall
120 hrs - 29.5/98.5 - 959mb - 90mph - Inland
Stormhank, at this point I would just prepare. The last storm no one had any idea.. just be on the safe side and keep your evac. plan in place.
deb1 - NHC web site is always delayed with the updates... 11 AM update is out though. It appears NHC has shifted the 5 day course far to the right now.
Golden Beach is just south of the Broward and Miami-Dade county line

It is raining here now.
I think what you see here is the need to be PC affecting the weather services. Look, LA coast is in deep doggie crap. Prepare as if this will hit and then be happy when it didn't and come back at a later date... One word NO mayor and Governer need to learn is CONTRAFLOW.... 3 days earlier.
puckasshans

a slight west landfall for Rita would put Rita right over my city... I do hope you are very wrong.
Evacuations should start now, forget the economical loss of evacuations 5 days early.. You now have to bus all NO residents to the next town, That is the only way that you will not get blamed. Line up the buses now.
I'm telling you guys, this storm going to make an ass out of those projected paths the nhc issues. I wish they wouldn't have that land fall line and focus more on the cone. No one gets a prize for predicting landfall. This crap gives people a since of false security and everyone in the gulf needs to be concerned.
I wouldn't even bother going back to NO for anouther 8 to 10 days. If you have a place well inland, stay there, because in 2 days all the rooms will be booked Dallas to Atlanta.
punk:

so right you are...I want to choke him everytime I see him whining on TV. He is trying to point the blame at the government so no one will look at him!

due west?!? Don't think so...I really hope that ridge will come and keep her south, but with every new advisory today, she is slowly slipping north of west....oh boy!
The NHC 11 am is out? The new GFS? does anyone have a link for that? I am still new at this and trying to find everything is a little overwhelming. Are any of you guys near the Lafayette area? The track keeps getting pushed further to the right. I don't think we will really know where its going until the storm gets into the gulf and the status of the ridge is clearer.
You just have to love all those flooded New Orleans school busses. Nagin and Blanco will be remembered on election day.
hey punkasshans - totally disagree with your comment calling the NO mayor an idiot - he's the only one that gave a damn and cried wolf to get the fed govt involved - TRUE it would be a mistake ,and i do not agree with him that NOLA should welcome its citizens back so fast - this doesn't make him an idiot - this is a wx board so i will keep it at that...
According to the 11am on the NHC probability chart, the probability of Rita passing within 65 nm of us in NAssau, Bahamas, just went up to 52% !
Eep! :(
If I was in Deerfield Beach I'd prepare for Hurricane Conditions in the next 24 hours.....If I was in Vero Beach, I'd prepare for at least Tropical Storm conditions, the wind radii is expanding, the effect could be felt up to Central Florida.
Galveston to Grand Isle...Rita is going to shake us all up. Nagin should just tell everyone to stay out of NO TODAY!
118. wpb05
without diving into that mess, I think it is safe to say that both the president, governor, and mayor made mistakes...
wpb - I agree... There were mistakes up and down the board - pick your person to blame. Or you could just blame every idiot who decides to live on the coast. Life is an imperfect game. It always has been from the beginning of time. Most of us on the blog enjoy observing the weather. Sometimes we witness truly beautiful events; sometimes we witness horrible events -- it's just all part of meteorology.
How many times has the LBAR been the most correct model in the past? It is the only one that has Philippe turning east and I think it might be right on the money.
Latest Rita Track Link
Sorry, I meant turning west!
ohio - Philippe or Rita?
Has anyone heard from STORMTOP...the real one?
The LBAR is almost useless... on of the least acurate models.
Yeah - the LBAR seems to be going against the grain for both storms. A rebel!
Phillipe
looking more like a houston to n.o. event.
129. wpb05
NHC is still insisting on Phillipe turning NNE...we shall see....it does look pretty ragged today as well
OHIO, curious, are you in Ohio? where?
That is what I thought rgeer. Think it might be right this time?
however, if the trof doesn't pickup Phillipe, it might prove to be correct
gotta couple questions for anyone with more tropical knowledge than me lol I saw one model heading toward mobile area is that possible?? and are we out of the woods so to speak with philiipe?
palmbeacher -- I am in Canton, Ohio
tampawx, that guy is the BIGGEST idiot outside of the FEMA. This guy has 200 Buses under water. This guy, one year ago, with the scare of IVAN, knew it would take 72 hours to evacuate. This guy, told everyone to get out 20 hrs before the hurricane, This guy, is a disaster waiting to happen. He is good in front of a camera, but his decision making skills rank worse than mine in a bar after 10 beers and 2 shots...

galldarnit - would someone please go and wake Lefty up??? How can he be sleeping at a time like this? HOW RUDE!!!
If Philippe is to affect any land areas, it would be Bermuda. I can't see a US landfall from him. (He might become a major hurricane though!)
138. crow
I am just another 65+ oldman, but I have found a lot of good info and BRAINS on this blog. I have a Veteran Brother in Alabama that has suffered a lot of damage from the last storm, and I am going to have to go and do what I can to evac him out of there. The next two days are important to me. I will be watching and will try to get him and his animals if I can. When Lefty gets back online , tell him I need a big effort here. For me, it is Not EZ as it was 40 years ago.

TY! ALL!

crow
Stormtop was posting yesterday
It now seems Monroe County is going to evacuate the entire Keys for all residents - working in phases through the rest of today. Good decision on their part.
Nice place, I am from South Webster, close to Portsmouth.
Phillipe will miss the trof..it is going to slow to the north to be picked up. It really does look like the trough will miss it.
Everyone need to watch Rita from TX to FL panhandle once she's in the gulf. Models have been shifting more N and E, so Mobile is def a possibility.

A little early to say for sure Mobile will take a hit.
if phillip misses the trough will he begin movein more westward and if so could he be a threat to the US?? also the trough comin from the west is it deep ? and does anyone see the ridge over gulf breaking down sooner than expected?
Stormhank. ANYWHERE in the gulf is a possibility at this point. If that's where you are or you know someone there, I would monitor this situation closely and be ready to act if necessary.
Should have been he's in the gulf.

Hooked, I don't but does it look to you that the trof won't dig far enough south?
Oh Leeeeeeefty.... Where aaaaaaaaaaare you? Time to put the fried egg sandwich down and come type at us........ LOL
Good morning SUBTROPIC, Get your generator ready!
did u here about the CA southern coast beach erosion from all the pacific storms? Ever been there? The coast is made of compacted clay and sand and many houses sit on top of the coastal cliffs...I actually went up to a sea cliff and scraped the sand from the cliff...if my nail can remove it, imagine how the waves will remove it....
hey palmbeacher! I put oil in it yesterday! Of course, I put too much and had to drain it and start over :-(
Houston/Galveston looking better and better not to get a hit from Rita. I'm in the Galveston area and last night I was starting to get nervous, now that NHC has the track dead at us, I am actually relieved, here's why... When the NHC has the track comming dead at you more than 5 days out, in all likelyhood that track is going to be shifted to the right by about 200-300 miles in 4 days. Of course, this is not good news for folks in Louisiana, but (and this is going to sound bad) if it's going to hit the Gulf coast, I'd rather see it tear up a city that's already torn up, than destroy another one somewhere else...
I am getting mine ready, just in case! This thing keeps coming a little farther north. Better to be prepared than not.
In Sunrise, Brwd Co, I just drove through a wicked squall I think, diagonal rain, windy..wow, if it was a feeder band, then I think Rita is definitely going to affect us here in Broward. I'm preparing my backyard now, better be safe than sorry.
I can see nothing to inhibit rapid strengthening from here on out with Rita. The gulf is recharged and with low wind shear we could see a strong cat3 by tomorrow. I'm afraid we could have another cat4 land falling storm along the Louisiana coast. This means no Tennessee game Saturday in Death Vally !@#@@$%^ !#^^*$%
Breezy here in Lake worth, actually kind of nice. Not as hot.
wxwatcher,
We're also in Galveston - hope you're right in your assessment. We all started getting worried when we saw the update this morning.
hi subtropic.. Im along Fla panhandle area, wonder if we'll get any effects from rita???
Link I am not good at these computer models, but it seems that this cmc model shows yet another t.s. to be over by the bahamas in 120H or so...so, how will all these storms interact together, bouncing off one another...I am not worried about Phillipe, and if Rita will stop nudging north, Id feel better bout her too..
Alright,
First, Fill up your gas tanks today, we will have $4 gas prices next week if this goes west of LA.

Second, the economy in Texas is strained as it is with the evacuees. Let alone a Cat 3 Landfall, in the heart of our oil rigs.

Third, this will be a catastrophe for more refineries, and our output will be at 75% this time next week. Thus $4 per gallon gas.

If we cut driving now and build excess in gas supplies, we can possibly help smooth this possible major, major bump in prices.
palmbeacher. I'm with ya. Thing is, where I am, it doesn't take a hurricane to knock out the power. Sometimes a leaf blowing the wrong way seems to do the trick! So, I expect we will probably lose power at some point no matter what. If it looks like it will be out for more than a few hours, I will crank it up! I might even fire up my guitar rig and scare the hell out of my neighbors!
161. wpb05
not really a feeder band yet...it is more the popcorn storms/showers that pop up ahead of it.....we have had some here in wpb this morning
if u have a water vapor loop like this Link...you can see the what will push Rita west and keep her from moving too far north...at least that is what I can see...
Stormy Dee, that is phillipe in the Bahamas, Joe B. thinks that Phillipe will miss the trof and head NW
I can't live that far from you! I lost power for just a couple of hours with Katrina, and I lost my cable. BOO HOO. Atleast FPL will be making some good money! It is insane what they make working storms.
165. wpb05
This may sound really mean, it is not meant to be that way......is this the storm that reinforces it in people's minds that NO should not be rebuilt in the same area?? I am not trying to be cruel, just curious
Seems crazy to complain about the little things anymore.
Here is a link to the canadian model. Good thing it generally stinks for tropical systems, or this might make me a little nervous. CMC Model 00z
stormydee, I'm with ya....I don't like it that Rita does not want to stay on a even west course
thanks wpb05.
Now does anyone know why Broward has closed schools tomorrow and Miami Dade still hasn't decided??? isn't that odd, what are they waiting for?
I am with you wpb, get the people out, and let lake New Orleans happen. Help people start lives in areas they won't have to be saved every hurricane season
lee, Usually it's Pbeach schools that wait until the last minute, I know how you feel.
here is the lastest that I could find with the GFDL

Link
Joe is no more of an expert than the rest of those weather dudes on TV. I see THREE systems on that computer model I posted...so if that is Phillipe in the Bahamas, what is that stronger one to the east of it? Oh, probably Stan....
ok..hookedontropics looking at that track on phillipe, has to make west bump before correcting back, then still looks straight north / east. The risk is on the next west bump if it mantains that travel longer.
175. wpb05
Broward closing schools somewhat surprises me at this point...I could see maybe later on this afternoon if it heads furhter north, but I don't understand right now......heck, we used to get stronger winds off the Lake in Cleveland during winter and school was still open
Tropical Storm Rita is quickly gathering strength, and is expected to become a hurricane later today. It's impact on south Florida and the Florida Keys is going to be considerable, especially since those areas are still recuperating from Hurricane Katrina.

Because of Katrina's devastating impact on the Gulf Coast most people forget that after pounding South Florida the storm brought some very heavy rain to the Keys. In fact, 9.66" of rain fell on Key West on August 26th, the 5th highest daily rainfall amount in its history.

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has declared a State of Emergency, and there is a mandatory evacuation order for all non-residents and tourists along with residents of mobile home communities and flood-prone regions. But as with Katrina, the bottom line is that this has the potential to be devastating, so the recommendation is for everyone in the Keys to get to safety.

Once Rita moves into the Gulf of Mexico it's going to intensify to at least Category 4 strength before making landfall by Friday or Saturday. AccuWeather's current projected path has landfall somewhere between Corpus Christie, Texas and Lake Charles, Louisiana
AccuWeather's hurricane expert Joe Bastardi says if Rita strikes Texas with Category 3 strength or higher the damage total could be as high as $10 to $15 Billion, a huge financial hit as the nation continues to recover from Hurricane Katrina. The price tag for Katrina's recovery efforts is expected to top $200 Billion.



Is that an eye in Rita's latest IR loop?

wxwatcher....if it tears up the same spot here on the Gulf Coast where Katrina hit...There will be no more FEMA ever(they will be broke 1000s of trailers here)..There are no jobs(they blew away)..People have not recieved Insurance money yet and live in tents..There are hardly any supply's left...People have little money left so they cant afford to evacuate...so if you get your wish and we get another....please send 1000's of body bags and you foot the bill....
Im done with Florida, the land of Wind and scam......lol

In Ft. Lauderdale,
RITA is gonna come too close... as far as Floris Flicker and Light , if our power is screwed up , which Ill bet on it will... Most of the power people are in NOLA...So get ready for a nice powerless vacation... No storm damage, just no power
Leelee75k at 3:45 PM GMT on September 19, 2005.

It is official...Dade county schools closed tonight and tomorrow, just took them few hours later than Broward.
N.O. flooded many, many, many times in the past (thats why they started the above ground cemetaries, creepy!)...its too big of a city not to rebuild...ever been to Venice, Italy? Its completely under water too....they just keep adding more floors to their buildings and you get around on a boat...that is the future N.O.
It looks like the sheer has dissapated - Rita is becoming more concentric and it looks like an eye has formed. This would make it a Cat 1 at least 12 hours earlier than NHC estiamtes and rapid intensification seems likely. IMHO.
Crude oil has jumped 3.50 a barrel amd gas is now up 19 cents a gallon on the spot market. Someone is scared
maybe I should reconsider trading my fuel efficient Civic for a CRV this week, ay?
185. wpb05
not an eye yet....
Florida Flicker and light...sorry
Rita will be a hurricane @ 2PM. That is an eye and I would imagine pressure to drop 3 to 4 MB, This is the bottom dropping out of the pressure everyone has spoke of. Also, the shear looks like it has relaxed
NO must be rebuilt. The Port of South Louisiana is the largest port in the United States by tonnage and the fifth-largest in the world. It exports more than 52 million tons a year, of which more than half are agricultural products -- corn, soybeans and so on. A larger proportion of U.S. agriculture flows out of the port. Almost as much cargo, nearly 57 million tons, comes in through the port -- including not only crude oil, but chemicals and fertilizers, coal, concrete and so on.

A simple way to think about the New Orleans port complex is that it is where the bulk commodities of agriculture go out to the world and the bulk commodities of industrialism come in. The commodity chain of the global food industry starts here, as does that of American industrialism. If these facilities are gone, more than the price of goods shifts: The very physical structure of the global economy would have to be reshaped. Consider the impact to the U.S. auto industry if steel doesn't come up the river, or the effect on global food supplies if U.S. corn and soybeans don't get to the markets.

The problem is that there are no good shipping alternatives. River transport is cheap, and most of the commodities we are discussing have low value-to-weight ratios. The U.S. transport system was built on the assumption that these commodities would travel to and from New Orleans by barge, where they would be loaded on ships or offloaded. Apart from port capacity elsewhere in the United States, there aren't enough trucks or rail cars to handle the long-distance hauling of these enormous quantities -- assuming for the moment that the economics could be managed, which they can't be.

Any predictions on whether Rita heads towards the treasure coast part of FL?
Slightly off topic lunch questions.

1. Should people be forced to leave in mandatory evacuation (ie physically removed, tranked if needed) or should they be a "universal sign" for people that refuse to leave can put up saying "I am staying do not attempt resuce" so other lives are not put in harms way for people that decide they should've left when the going was good. Or not matter what, people have the right to refuse to leave and call 911 if they change thier minds later?

2. Should we really just dump money on the destruction caused by Katrina (also should we wait until after hurricane season to try and rebuild)?
191. wpb05
latest recon states pressure of 997 mb, and max flt winds of 64 kts in N Quadrant
Here is her eye forming

Link
Discussion #7 for Rita

088
WTNT43 KNHC 191507
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

SINCE THE LAST RECON FIX SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z...WHICH MEASURED A 997
MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...SO RITA IS DEVELOPING SUBSTANTIAL INNER CORE
CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST TIME. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z
WERE UNANIMOUSLY T3.5/55 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.
RECON IS SCHEDULED TO BE BACK INTO THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS ON BASICALLY THIS CONTINUED
HEADING...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEEPENS.
MOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO A
WEAKENING RIDGE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
NORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

RECON DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SIZE OF THE STORM
IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE EXPANDED BASED ON THESE DATA...WIND RADII
CLIPER GUIDANCE...AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING SYSTEM.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT RITA COULD AFFECT A LARGE AREA
AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA SHOULD
INTENSIFY SOME MORE...BEFORE AND AFTER IT REACHES THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND
IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND
SHOWS RITA REACHING CATEGORY TWO STATUS BEFORE REACHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER
THAN FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE A
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 23.0N 75.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 23.4N 76.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 24.0N 79.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.4N 81.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 24.7N 84.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 92.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 95.0W 100 KT


$$


WXWATCHER - Amen to the NHC comment and Houston
Don't we have a "stubborn" HIGH over us? Wouldn't that steer Rita either to Mexico or LA?
Hi Orion, Nice to see you on.
"Should people be forced to leave in mandatory evacuation"
No they should not BUT they should be on their own if they choose to stay.
Hello Orion!
I don't know that I am going ot count on Philippe making the trough either. Not that I think this storm is coming to my city, but for historical reference the last Hurricane to hit here, a href="Link" target="_blank">Dora, "tracked on a more westerly course, after missing the trough developed from the extratropical cyclone formerly known as Cleo."

If that were to occur then this system really could hit somewhere on the east coast.
??should people be forced in mandatory evacs???

I think is is a personal decision, but I know when Frances and Jeanne threatened here last year, if you choose not to evacuate you were given an ID bracelet and asked to list your next of kin.
200. wpb05
ok...i reconsider my previous post...IR just updated for me...eye is forming....a interesting note.....if it would turn due west right now, it appears it would clip northern cuba........possibility??
weatherwannabe, fine rebuild the port, let everyone live 20 miles inland. Put a couple of small gas stations and restaurants, and let the rest be? There is no harm in trying to do what just makes sense
Exactly...

NO must be rebuilt. The Port of South Louisiana is the largest port in the United States by tonnage and the fifth-largest in the world.

The Battle of New Orleans all over again except it's with nature's fury.

Due to the size of current Atlantic storms, it matters ever less how accurately the center of low pressure is predicted to move, as long as the general track can be forecast. Remember, Katrina actually only brushed New Orleans. While still 100 miles offshore, Katrina absorbed dry air from the southwest which made it heavy to the northeast, and the storm took a hard right, missing the city.
There is NO EYE in this system yet. Rita is still a developing tropical depression. I expect 5pmish, if it keeps developing at the rate it has, it will be a hurricane.

Once it is a hurricane, and the eyewall gets its act together, this storm will blossom. Cat 3 as it goes through the keys, cat 4/5 in the gulf.
hookedontropics, don't think that will happen. Everyone could jsut live in Baton Rouge and commute, but in order to prevent anyone from rebuilding in the fish bowl the feds would have to use imminent domain or stop issuing flood insurance. There are already real estate speculators lining up to buy land that was flooded by Katrina. Now areas that have been contaminated by Toxic Waste could be designated SuperFund sites and then nobody will want the property.

But NOLA is a lot more than just Mardi Gras, the French 1/4 and Jazz Fest. It's a city that is vital to the nation AND world's commerce.
ha, i said tropical depression, i meant to say tropical storm (of course!)
Oops, sorry THIS is link to Dora's stormtrack.

Compare that track to predicted positions of Philippe and fact that Philippe is also rrelying on a trough to pick him up.
any 1 feel that the latse GFDL model run 06Z could be correct and be that far east at landfall? and has anyone got a link to joe bastardi's tropical discussion???
New Orleans can not be rebuilt, nor even repopulated until a 'proper' levee system is engineered and built to protect life and property. Five years and 150-300 thousand million dollars.
franck - I could rebuild the entire state of Loisianna for that much.

Did you mean to include the thousand before million?


Miami-Dade is now under hurricane warnings.
FtLaud,

Did they tell you or list you on a do not rescue list or do you know?
But you can not get around the fact that this city is sinking. I agree with what you are saying. Katrina is costing this government more than it should. I just think a common sense decision needs to be made.
Miami-Dade County... Hurricane Warning for coastal sections and inland Hurricane
Warning for inland areas.

Broward County... Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch for coastal sections... inland Tropical Storm Warning for inland areas.

Palm Beach County... Tropical Storm Warning for coastal sections and inland
Tropical Storm Warning for inland Metro Palm Beach County.

Mainland Monroe County... Hurricane Warning for coastal sections from East Cape
Sable east along the north coast of Florida Bay... Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch north of East Cape Sable... inland Tropical Storm Warning and
inland Hurricane Watch for inland areas.

Collier County... tropical storm watch for coastal sections and inland tropical
storm watch for inland areas.

A Flood Watch will be issued for much of Mainland South Florida effective
tonight through Tuesday night.
215. wpb05
yes there IS a developing eye currently...you can check the IR, visible, and water vapor......there is a eye
HI All!

Don't know if it is related to Rita or not but there are some awful storms going on right now in North Broward.
Guess I better bring in the garbage cans before they end up in Belle Glade.
wpb we see it too
hello, I live 75 Miles south west of New Orleans, Katrina misses us my 2 degrees. We where very lucky the western side of the storm caused little damage. But I am very worried about Rita. This town will not fare well getting the eastern side of any storm. Our barrier islands are gone. Our Little levies are nothing more than a speed bump.

It is really disurbing to read that some of you would concider it a good thing for a storm to hit Louisiana again, and not to rebuilt New Oleans. We are a very important part of this worlds economy, arts, music, and all around culture. I ask that you pray for all of us.
Our city my not be the most beautiful in the world but it is our lives.
caneman - where are you on the treasure coast?
EmmyRose,

I posted on your blog
Rita is looking much more impressive in the latest IR and WV loops. That rapid intensification is occurring earlier than expected. I guess the sheer has lessened.

That's going to be an impressive cane
subtropic, I just went outside can you believe how windy it is already?
224. wpb05
yes, i would say rapid intensification is beginning to take place...bad news for the keys...this thing will not have any land inhibit its development until the gulf coast......unless it jogs SW a tad and hits Cuba
I agree New Orleans should be rebuild, but I think it should be rebuild somewhere else, preferly somewhere not 20 feet below sea level or surrouding on 3 sides by water. But again its not a offical Goverment Trophy Project (trademark pending) so it will get done no matter the cost or the future risk.

Not to mention thier is a conspricy theory that the US Goverment contracted Chinese miltary to aim thier secert weather sat at Katrina to boost it up to destory most of New Orleans so they could move out the un-desireables and turn it into the US Rivera (LOL)
putintang3, I agree with what you say.. Culture travels, so do people, I think this may be the first time in recent history, mother nature may reclaim some land. As natural instincts take over, it is time to migrate somewhere else, unless they can build the levees in 5 days?
Do you think NEW ORLEANS can take RITA if she hit the city as a cat 4 or 5 (or just pass at 60 milles from)?
putintang3 - I hope it finds an uninhabited and moutainous area of Mexico to kill itslef on. Rita coming anywhere near Loisuanna or Mississippi would be catastrophic beyong imagination.

palmbeacher. Yeah. It picked up quick. It usually takes only a little more than this to take out the power here. Times like this I am glad to have a UPS.
palmbeacher, WU says you're having 18mph with gust 25-28mph. Is that what you're seeing?
weatherwanabe. does someone else use your computer at night? Just wondering why you are perfectly reasonable by day, but a troll by night.
IS is just me or is Phillipe just sitting there, convection expanding, but not really moving anywhere. It'll never get pick up if it doesn't move.

WAKE UP LEFTY!!! STORMTOP!!!!!!!
It feels great out though. I am wondering if my trash cans went to Belle Glade with yours!
jc... not a chance..
i disagree with jeff masters...the reason why the shift is happening is because the upper level low that was over cuba has moved south instead of west...this is a temporary shift the huge high that is located just to the north of rita will build in and protect the new orleans area from getting a direct hit from rita...the people who really have to worry about this storm is the texas area from corpus christi to galveston....this storm will be a cat 3 maybe a weak cat 4 and texas should listen for future advisories and please be ready to evacuate...i repeat new orleans will be protected by the huge ridge and it will be in place for the next 5 days...the only thing new orleans has to worry about is the tides increasing as rita passes to the south..it may bring the water levels up once again in st bernard and new or;leans east....thats the way i see it now and believe me im very confident this high will protect la and miss from rita.....
I was thinking the same thing notwithout....
palmbeacher, If I see them, I'll grab them for you because I didn't get outside quick enough.
hooked, not all of NOLA is below sea level. Maybe we could borrow some expertise from the Dutch on how to properly build a levee system? NOLA will be a much smaller city and I think that will happen naturally. The economic, histrical and cultural aspects of NOLA will survive. Many of the poorer areas will probably not be rebuilt in the near future. In time NOLA will beceom a major city again and people will forget Katrina's lessons.

I've heard rumors that the Saints might pack up and leave NOLA permanatly.

Flcracker, that sounds about right. The sun is shining but the wind is kicking.
lol @ subtropic
Last WV Loop, you can see a pinhole of an eye forming. Lookout Miami and the Keys
yes, that eye confirms a westward movement.
Hmm, the historical map for September shows no previous storm in this location making landfall any farther west than Mississippi. Big enough statistical gap to steer a hurricane through, but still...
Thanks subtropic I appreciate it! LOL.
stormtop, what is your take on P....will he hit the trough or miss is it?
Is that the real Stormtop, looks to be! Haven't seen you here since before Katrina hit. Good to see your back and that your ok.
I was about to ask Stormtop the same question waetherdude
248. kiawa
ftlaud..punk, you're not the only weather nut i assure you. ;) i've been glued to the news and emailing reports to my coworkers at FedEx Kinkos in Plantation. i'm off today... i live in Oakland Park. i'm crossing my fingers they aren't considering keeping our center open tomorrow. every update seems to bring this thing closer and closer to Broward Co. regardless, we're in for some pretty nasty wind/rain.
249. wpb05
yes here in west palm...shower/storms....NE winds 18 mph with gusts to 25....i live just south of PBIA
Plantation here( western broward county)...just went through a second squall line...i'd hurry your preparations. Silly Broward Mayor claims that Govt offices will be open tomorrow?!? Buses dont run in TS force winds. They forget the fiasco during IRENE. Everyone should stay home.

Monroe EOC just told AP that Rita may reach CAT 3.
The facts are that, if they want to reclaim the coast of se Louisiana NO cannot be a port. The only way to restore the coastal marsh is to let the Mississippi rive flood and redeposit sediment in the delta. That would stop river traffic due to the fact that, they divert as much water as they can down the river in the they dry months to allow super tankers up the river. This shoots all the sediment all year long out into the gulf and off the continental shelf. They need to build a channel through Lake Pontchartrain and construct a cannal to Baton Rouge with a lock system, or dig a cannal through the Atchafalaya basin up to three rivers with a lock system there. Then they could levee off greater NO and let the river do what it wants south and naturally build up the marsh. This would help protect NO. in the future, but it would take another 30 years. We also need a 50 foot sea wall along the south shore of lake Pontchartrain.
These big storms coming into the gulf is very scary no matter where they hit. Most of the people here depend on the waters of the gulf for our lives. All of our men work on the rigs and platforms, Many are in the seafood industry. Much has already been distroyed from Katrina.
My husband had been working of the coast of Grand Isle. Now he is off the coast of Texas. Rita hits near the Texas coast, there will be nothing left to the gulf oil production. Not to mention all the garbage that will be moving into the gulf waters from New Orleans that will kill anything edible.
only part of Rita that doesn't just look totally impressive is the outlfow on her south side - must still be some sheer there. Outlow on the rest of Rita looks very heatlhy and the convestion is becoming more concetrated at her center of circ. Anyone think she will be a cat 1 at 2pm? Anyone think she already is a Cat1?
no chance that trough moving off the east coast could cause Rita to shift more north? Or is she far enough south that the trough is not affectig her? And Phillipe does appear not to be moving much, probably meandering and laughing, watching us all worry about Rita...he knows he's not getting any attention.
255. tessa
Hey StormTop, glad to see you on here again.
Okay, to all you people thinking abandoning the idea of not building New Orleans is feasible, think again. Yes I agree that there needs to be some serious changes, and serious looks as to how our govt handles situations like these, but new orleans is not an aquarium and the people from there are not robots that you can place somewhere with no thought of their feelings. Baton Rouge cannot support a total influx of New Orleans residents. Metairie supports quite a bit of NOLA population, and I think it would be a good place to rebuild, and just dont rebuild in some of the areas which were greatly affected. There are canals throughout the city, and levees throughout, so if you dont rebuild one area wouldn't that be silly, because a canal could just break somewhere else? People who live there know the risk, and it is their life. We love New Orleans here, it is the heart of our economy and for many of us, its where we go when we needed to see a good doctor, etc. Baton Rouge can handle a lot, I lived there for 25 years but it is not built to support 1.6 million people. (It already had close to 400k living there before the storm) The infrastructure is just not ready for that. It would be like shoving a bowling ball in a cue ball pocket. Anyway, this is a weather board and I don't want to get all heated up, but I live in Louisiana, and dont like people talking about us as if we are not worthy to rebuild. Its not like we are animals or foreign countries, we are people just like you. Hurricanes will hit us... It is just something we have to understand. Maybe we should focus on the coastlines and building up the barriers for storms. I didn't see any talk of abandoning Pensacola beach when it was practically destroyed due to Ivan. Or Mississippi as it is now. Don't you think these places will be hit and affected just as often as New Orleans? Sorry for the long post but I get upset when people refer to our situation without much forethought or education on our value to the world.
257. wpb05
a eye formation lends itself to her already being a Cat. 1.......don't see an eye in most cases even with a strong TS
stormy....I think Rita is to far west for the trough to have any effect on her. And yes, Phillipe is not getting any attention. He has had a large flare up right near the center this morning.
i have been saying that p would be a fish storm all along since saturday...
Masters has a new entry
261. wpb05
oil up 4 dollars a barrel now...sheesh...we just got down to 2.71 a gallon here today
STORMTOP, what makes you so confident in that high? Is there no chance that its not as strong as the models are predicting, and a trough building in from the west? I hope your right.
weatherwannabe- a thousand million is a billion, and it would take a hundred and fifty or so of those to reconstruct and reinforce the inadequate system New Orleans has now. Remember, there are over 300 miles of the system, and any serious breach floods the entire area.
264. wpb05
recon heading in right now
franck - even if they were biult out of gold, $500 million per mile seems a little steep.

That would be about $8000 per inch - that is some expensive dirt!
Thats what a piece of land goes for in Palm Beach county!LOL
268. TPaul
Is it me, or does it seem insane that they are even debating letting people back into the city with Rita headed there way. You know they always say lightning doesn't strike the same place twice, but after last years hurricane season anyone want to bet that Rita couldn't make landfall within 100 miles of NO. The head of the Army Corp of Engineers down there said over the weekend that a good set of thunderstorms could over whelm the levee system in its current state. If Rita gets anywhere close to Louisanna to the point of causing a minor surge there I think you will see additional failures of the levees. When all is said and done the cost of rescueing and rebuilding NO will come in close to half a trillion dollars. So any of you under 35 might as well kiss your Social Security benefits good bye, and for all of us expect to see your taxes go up by between 2 and 5% over the next 10 years. Ultimately the Port of New Orleans has to be re-opened but I find it unacceptable to re-build houses destroyed during this hurricane season.
caneman - where are you on the treasure coast?

Parents live in PSL.
palmbeacher LOL!
I am not far off with that one am I? You know how it is!
palmbeacher You are pretty much right on! Makes me want to sell the house and hit the road!
Any preditions of whether Rita makes a NW turn and makes landfall on the E Coast of FL, PSL or Ft Pierce>
NO CANEMAN, we don't want another one! However, I would not be shocked if it did come this way.
orion

from earlier post way up there!

it was on the news, particulary for those staying in mobile homes. I am not in a mandatory evac zone.
Ok gotta get finished with the "Francis" room before the rain comes. I have about a million things to bring into the house from storage now that the painting is done. Have a safe one all. I will be around from time to time. palmbeacher, I'll hang on to those cans for you!
This is crazy they are already having a news conference here in galveston in an hour to talk about evacs to take place as early as Tuesday... I agree with the earlier post since they have it coming here this far out that means it will hit in west la.. possibly lake charles
hey subtropic, when the wind shifts and at that right time they might come back to me! LOL Have fun fixing the Francis damage.
does anyone know what the wind speed was in Hurricane Alicia that hit galveston???
IIRC Alicia was 115 mph at landfall. I know it was a Category 3.
Thank you , thank you thank you ! (this is for STORMTOP) Ive been looking for your prediction about Rita for days....now i can sleep tonight ,not having to worry about an unwanted guest at my house :)