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Katrina's weakening--worst missing New Orleans

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:39 AM GMT on August 29, 2005

Katrina is due south of the Mississippi-Louisiana border, and moving northward at 15 mph. On this course, the western edge of the eyewall will pass some 20 miles to the east of New Orleans, sparing that city a catastrophic hit. As the eye passes east of the city later this morning, north winds of about 100 mph will push waters from Lake Pontchartrain up to the top of the levee protecting the city, and possibly breach the levee and flood the city. This flooding will not cause the kind of catastrophe that a direct hit by the right (east) eyewall would have, with its 140 mph winds and 15-20 foot storm surge. New Orleans will not suffer large loss of life from Katrina.

Biloxi and Gulfport Mississippi will take the full force of Katrina's right eyewall, and a storm surge of 15-20 feet is likely along the central Mississippi coast. Katrina is a strong but weakening Category 4 hurricane, and will probably come ashore about noon CDT near Gulfport as a weak Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. The storm has been slowly weakening the past 12 hours, with the central pressure rising more than 1mb/hour on average. The central pressure measured by the Hurricane Hunters has been oscillating the past three hours, jumping from 918 mb to 925, then back to 920, and now 921 mb at 7:30am EDT. The winds measured at flight level on the east side of the eyewall were 134 kt, which translates to 140 mph at the surface. The cloud pattern in satellite imagery has decreased on the west side due to dry air entrainment, and the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest in radar imagery. With the center passing over mixed swamplands and water, much of the energy that sustains the hurricane will be cut off, making any further intensification unlikely. Katrina is not hitting at maximum intensity and is sparing New Orleans a direct hit, and although the damage will be incredible, it could have been much, much worse.

Tropical Depression 13
A new tropical depression formed in the mid-Atlantic yesterday, and is headed northwest over open ocean. This is one we definitely do not need to worry about for now. The storm may even dissipate due to hostile wind shear within the next few days.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I asked this on the other thread... but is the WWL-TV real-time site accurate? It show over 18" of rain and still rising.

http://ww2.instaweather.com/wrc/default.asp?cid=4&javaid=WWLTV
Well Thank God!! Damn thing DID take that last minute jog to the east!! Bad for Biloxi!! Hopefully the Biloxi/Gulfport ppl paid close attention and prepared!! Pretty windy here in Niceville, not too much rain...Hhappily my boss called last nite and excused us from work today so I can stay tuned...:)
U're gonna get crazy readings while the storm is still going through......
Hope Katrina falls apart quickly once she hits land. She hasn't done anything they have predicted yet so we may be lucky. ANyone heard from STORMTOP? Was he staying in NO?
On a purely scienceific note, history was not made this morning (ie a cat5 hit, which could have been easily the case if Katrina had been moving faster and turned northward earlier). However remenber and give care and respect to those that have to witness nature's awesome fury up close and very personal.
I hope everyone is safe through this.
Which cams are up? I'm having trouble pulling up anything on the BourbonCam site, but I know there are a few others that were linked. Anyone seen anything live in the last half-hour or so?

We should be seeing at least a dim sunlight pretty soon.
The New Orleans Port cams appear to be down as well.

Jefferson County is not seeing much of a storm surge. Given the turn of Katrina, what does it look like for Lake P holding? Any thoughts?
Save...There is no way that rain guage can be right. Moving up too quickly. IMHO.
11. afs
WWL feed through KHOU seems to be having some problems.
SouthernFootprints - what's is look like for us? Eyewall east or west?
I feel for the people in this storm currently. But there are just so many unanswered questions about this thing. How was the pressure so low, while the winds were not even close to matching it? How even with the huge eye getting bigger did it keep super cat. 5 pressure? Just wow...
Here is a link I got off this blog for Denniss, it is still active for Live Local Video News feeds

Link

Although they seem to be losing feeds from the stations as they go down

Happy viewing!
Rob
Update: (Better News For New Orleans)


Category Three/Four Hurricane Katrina Moving Inland

Issued: 7:00 AM Monday, August 29, 2005


At 7am CDT, the center of Hurricane Katrina is moving ashore into southeast Louisiana just east of Grand Isle near 29.5N/89.5W. Movement is to the north-northeast at 15 mph. Central pressure has risen to 921 millibars, or 27.20 inches. Winds have decreased considerably from yesterday afternoon, but Katrina may still produce sustained wind of 125-140 mph with higher gusts across southeast Louisiana and along the western coast of Mississippi. This makes Katrina a strong Category Three/minimal Category Four storm. The eye wall structure continues to weaken.


On its current track, the western eyewall of Katrina could just miss New Orleans to the east. However Katrina's eastern eyewall will move across Chandeleur Sound and into the coast of Mississippi between Bay St. Louis and Gulfport, MS later this morning. As Katrina continues moving ashore, its winds will gradually decrease. Katrina could produce a storm surge of 12-18 feet along its eastern eyewall across the west to west-central coast of Mississippi later this morning. Farther east, we expect a surge of 8-12 feet in the Biloxi area and 7-9 feet in Pascagoula. In Mobile Bay, the surge will probably be 5-7 feet.


For the latest storm commentary and track map, please see the special section on Hurricane Katrina on your ImpactWeather tropical page. We have prepared a SLOSH inundation map for southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. The map shows the potential storm surge from west of New Orleans to the mid Mississippi coast as Katrina moves ashore. Keep in mind that this map is for multiple centers crossing the coast, not a single track. Katrina's storm surge will be confined about a 40-mile wide area from where the center crosses the coast to about 30-50 miles east of the track.


Storm Surge Map For Category 4 Hurricane:


http://www.impactweather.com/sloshnewcat4


Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
Here is the link in text
http://www.weatherserver.net/livevideo.htm
Pressue has risen to 921? That's unheard of. That's still right at a cat. 5 pressure. This system will be probably the most studided scientifically for years to come.
Here is a list of cams I have that are still up

http://www.nola.com/rivercam/ - up and down (has a battery thing on the screen so I can't imagine it being up much longer)

http://www.webcamsearch.com/links/cgi-bin/frames.pl?id=13182

http://www.nola.com/cgi-bin/nph-cachecam.cgi?camid=bead&ols=nolalive&ts=20050829073457&ct=20

http://www.nola.com/bridgecam/

http://www.dotd.louisiana.gov/press/traffic_cameras/cameras_br.asp?camera=160015

http://www.earthcam.com/features/mardigras/2003/cam3.html

http://www.2theadvocate.com/traffic/tower2.shtml

Thank you, Marie Laveaux, and Yemaya, Oshun, Oya, Elegba, and High John the Conqueror for protecting your children in New Orleans! Keep the waters in the lake, in the river, behind the levees. Ashe!
Indeed! Ashe!

Amen AFS...welcome to the congregation...lol. All joking aside...as bad is this is..we should all be thankful...while kepping hope for the good fortune to continue
I'm glad that it appears that New Orleans missed the worst of the storm, but I want to wait until the eye passes and the winds over the lake start coming from the west before I become a born-again Christian.
Some helpful links (no longer auto-posting :p ):

Projected Flooding from Katrina

WWLTV/KHOU webcast (switched operations to Baton Rouge) (Open in Windows Media Player)
CBS affiliate; guest had claimed WWL was the only remaining news feed out of NO
Alternate: KHOU Server

New Orleans Long-Range Radar Loop (Alternate Presentation)
NO Radar Analyzed on Wunderground (for tornadoes, etc.)

VORTEX Recon Decoder (Raw)

GOES Ch.4 IR Loop (Updates every 30 min)
GOES-12 Interactive Map (Updates every 15ish min; set options then click hurricane in picture to animate)

Lake Pontchartrain & Area Water Levels (1, 2, 3)
Near-Katrina Buoy Measurements

New Orleans Winds (click a site, then "Real-Time")
(Direct link to real-time winds at WWL-TV)
http://www.namb.net/site/c.9qKILUOzEpH/b.224451/k.7BDB/Disaster_Relief_Homepage.htm
Folks in the Superdome are worried... Water either coming in or condensing inside and raining down on them.
NOL has lost all power, according to Fox, and pumping stations have stopped.
the total eye now appears to be positioned over Lake Borgne, SE of NO
I'm away from TV and radio. Are there any live reports from NO making it out right now? Is there any flooding, from rain or surge?
Wow. The superdone is struggling with this? How the hell did anyone expect this to handle the Category 5 it could of had?
heard on the news that the roof is leaking in superdome
Orleans parish reporting 97 mph wind gust, SE of US 90
looks like Bourbon St has lost its protection at last.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/index.php?cam=3
Well, p-cola is now getting pretty good gusts. not much in the way of rain yet.

I just heard that the superdome in NOLA has a leak in it?!? Has anyone else heard this?
Link

This eye is no joke. It's not over yet.
How does everyone now think that NO will fair?
It appears the dry air that got entrained on the west side of Katrina has wrapped around to the south, and some of the heaviest precip so far, plus strong NE winds, are approaching Ponchatrain.

The eye also appears to have expanded out to the west a little, although track is the same.
At what point will the surge happen in nol?
From a science, and just pure interest standpoint I love seeing these things get crazy strong, and not really weaken.

but from a human standpoint, I'm glad it weakened quite bit. Hopefully that means more saved lives, and less damage.
meant leading edge of eye entering Lake Borgne
CNN now reporting that a section of the Superdome roof has peeled off and daylight can be seen...
1/12 of the Super Domes Roof is now gone. They say that they are still 15 miles from the eye wall and the worst is still to come.....
"'glad' they are that a catastrophe has been averted"

Don't know that I would go that far yet, but it isn't a worst case scenario.
CNN news reporting leak in roof of Superdome
So much for 200mph rating on the dome
LOL @ The Superdome. It can take 200 MPH winds my ***.
I thought the Superdome was built to withstand 200 mph winds?????
Carbo04 - I go back to your earlier post on the pressure at 921. That should be cat 5 pressure so I would really like to know what made this storm loose so much of it's punch? If it was headed for an ewrc then we would have seen evidence of the eye shrinking.... wouldn't we? Hmmm, those little dry pellets the planes been dropping must work pretty good. Anybody heard from STORMTOP. No posts since Friday I don't think.

Ps> There are a lot of good religious, right wing gay bashing, and N.O. partying sites that support your theories. Please go to those onad don't post here. This is weather. thks.

kerigangirl in cola,sc
A local station has a person at the SuperDome who has confirmed that the roof has been compromised and daylight can be seen ans it's raining in the building.
everyone, pull out your bikes, gas is gonna get high
I feel for the 30,000 people in there. Are the lower levels still expected to flood?
Lost power about an hour ago in Mobile. Back up w/generator. Thank God for AC.
kerigangirl, i don't think anyone knows. This storm has been crazy since it started. This will be easily the most studied hurricane in science for years to come. Becuase everyone, including scientists have just been baffeled, and totally lost by what this thing has done.
MS NBC is confirming roof problems but feel the structure is
probably okay. He said, "You can feel a fine mist all over the Dome."
TWC just said a piece of the Superdome's roof has torn off.
As ragged as this storm looks, and the fact it's over land and the eye is filling up yet the pressure as of a couple minutes ago is still 923 which is a low 5/very high 4 pressure. This is just showing how VERY little we really know about these storms.
"Anybody heard from STORMTOP. No posts since Friday I don't think."

He had to move, cause of the hurricane or something. No word since. :S
a guy on fox news said last night that the superdome was only tested to withstand 130 mph sustained and gusts to 160...
Torn off is extreme, there are a few cracks in one 9 foot slit. Everyone at teh Superdome is sfae
obviously big pieces are peeling of the roof of the superdome, is there any more information out?
They just said on TV that the eye wall will be landing as a strong Cat 3. This is great news, being that just last night they were saying Cat 5! Good luck to those in the path. Stay safe!
when daylight came with Frances, so did the worst of her...seems that is how Katrina is acting....
No They just showed a picture on CNN. Its is a slight crack, Brian Williams said everyone is safe, its just a lil wet and windy in some areas.
Actually TWC DID say that a piece of the roof had been torn off.

Don't expect to have power much longer, It's really going in and out here in p-cola. I imagine parts of p-cola are already out.
asf, either you're wrong and you risk that God will be annoyed with how you've mocked his sovereignty, or you're right and you've made a half dozen non-amusing jokes. Either way, it's not productive. If you're going to bash religious people, at least be clever about it.

Further, sometimes forecasters get it wrong. It COULD have been as bad as 77, lefty and 53rd had suggested. Fortunately, it isn't. It isn't over, however, and it will still cause large scale devastation. I don't doubt that portions of NO will be uninhabitable for months.

My question is if anyone knows the constituency of the Superdome roof. Are we talking heavy plates that will fall and crush people, or glorified tarp/canvas?
TWC just said there was a levee breach. They said to expect 3-8 ft of water from that breach.
Excuse me it was MSNBC, Brian Williams said they have moved everyone onto the concourse where it is very safe. Its just a leaking roof nothing further the panels have moved slightly, but none are expected to fall or cause any type of catastrophic building collapse.
Just had a 12 ft limb take out the power lines coming into the house. That limb is now 50 ft from the tree.
This storm didn't weaken that much. A disaster for New Orleans might be averted and it might not. But if it is, it's because the storm went to the East of projections.
::sigh of relief:: ? It looks like we may have gotten around the worst of it. However, I am still concerned about the wind pushing the waters of the lake over onto the southshore.
i don't care. they will tell u what u want but if the roof is peeling off those people will be in danger not tomention what they must be going thru
Guess they should get some kind of refund on that Superdome there.
The things CatChaser is saying are not obscene nor spam. The fact of the matter is that several posters to this board, especially last night, were overly sensational in their depictions of what might happen.

(For the record, I have a Ph.D. in climatology and hold an affiliation with NOAA/NWS, so I know something about all this.)
I heard a figure of 10,000 that went to the dome having some sort of medical needs?? Is that right?
Its a small panel on the roof (not the acutal roof, used for venalation) its moved slightly not torn off. Turn on MSNBC you will see all is well in the Superdome.
CNN says "massive" piece has pealed away.
ok well we will see i hope it is all safe. i will be back on in a few minutes
a hotel in harvey,la collapsed, many people trapped
muffin, please turn on MSNBC. Please don't oversensationalize the situations (as CNN has done the last 24 hours), I promise you all is well in the Superdome, yes there are problems, but its much safer in there than in your home.
I hate to agree with Cat because of his lack of polish...but he is right. Last night there were people on here belittling, or at least ignoring anyone who dared to disagree with their Chicken Little predictions of utter devesatation. They seemed to be the type of people who only call you up when they have bad news. I'm sure we all know the type.
That being said there will, unfortunately, be plenty of personal tragedies connected with this storm, and lots of damage. But we will survive and rebuild and move on. That's life.
Looks like NO is gonna get sideswiped...still bad, but not nearly as bad as if Katrina tracked a bit more to the West. Hopefully, any flooding will be localized and not the catastrophe we were looking at yesterday.

BTW, I'll bet the "leaking" at the Superdome is just windblown rain getting pushed in through ventilation shafts and whatnot. I've seen that before in other storms.

The strongest part of the storm is almost upon NO...let's just hope the Lake Pont levees hold...
dpb, we live in the Bastardi era. The guy is great, and a phenomenal long range forecaster, but he can be a little sensational sometimes. That's one of the reasons everyone loves him. His energy breeds passion and generates excitement. The fringe benefit of public awareness is well worth his occasional overkill...

I'm just amazed that people kept claiming that the images they were seeing from the satellites looked to be healthy/strengthening last night...it was pretty clear that this hurricane was sick as of about 10 last night. Of course, hindsight is 20/20.
110. Solo
Politics, religion, lifestyle choices - what exactly do these have in common with WEATHER? Pretty much NOTHING, I think.

I've been following the blog since early Friday, and have seen some good (and some *not* so good) information passed along. PLEASE don't diminish it now with hysterical gabbling about how "god saved new orleans"...because A) 'he' hasn't yet, this is still a major issue; and B) exactly WHOSE 'god' is being referred to?

Just my .02
Anyone have a link for a live news feed webcast (other than khou wwl). I had to go into work and I REALLY want to be watching live coverage. Many thanks ahead of time.

Sup Carbo.
pseabury, I believe all other feeds went out when the weather did.
Lefty: Regarding a Harvey hotel collapse, what is your source?
pseabury

I'm at work too, and can't access squat besides the KHOU/WWL audio, and it keeps cutting out.

It looked like a little while ago on the NOLA radar that Ponchatrain was getting some of the heaviest squalls it's seen, and the dry air that was entrained to the west had wrapped around south.

Miss/Ala in for a long, long day....
Hey Paul. Nice to see you over here. Wikipedia seems to have a lot of live feed links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina#Recent_developments

As does del.icio.us:

http://del.icio.us/tag/katrina

Hope it helps.
fox news and ap reported the hotel collapse
What is a shame is that many of these people who evaced NO went to the Mississippi coast, further discouraging future evacs if something like this were to happen again.
http://www.weatherserver.net/livevideo.htm has 4 feeds on one page.
which hotel? Gosh i wish i were at home...those poor people, is it caused by the flooding???
MSNBC: The holes in the roof of the Superdome were nothing more than venelation fabric surrounding the roof of the dome, no damage the actual structure.
Pseabury:

http://www.weatherserver.net/livevideo.htm

It still works, I'm watching it right now.
Jeff is right about the lake surge being pushed south towards New Orleans but New Orleans is protected by our extensive floodwalls and levies. However, as the trailing edge of the eye wall then pushes the water piled against the floodwalls to the east, Slidell gets all this water and Slidell does not have the levy and floodwall protection of New Orleans. Lake flooding will be much worse in the flood protection weak link of Slidell.
gatorbait-those were suppose to hold up to at least 150 mph winds...thank god the storm turned east
this storm is negative, people please report what you here on the news...I only have the internet for info reg. the damages, I want to be home in front of the TV, please someone watch for me and let me know everything important, good and bad!
127. afs
Furstie... I didn't mock God. I mocked one old fool who claimed to know the mind of God. He didn't know it.... and you don't know it either. Keep your ridiculously self-indulgent pronouncements of God's vengeance against people who post something you disagree with on a blog to yourself.
"MSNBC: The holes in the roof of the Superdome were nothing more than venelation fabric surrounding the roof of the dome, no damage the actual structure."

Thanks, Gatorbait05...I figured as much...
Jim Cantore just said there is 3 to 4 ft of water on parking lot where he is staying. That place is 27 ft above sea level
Hotel in Harvey, LA did collapse...10 people trapped...

Evac Center in NO Collapsed..300 people stranded..Nat Guard on site...

Dome is structurally sound...the fabric that covers the dome ahs ripped in 2 places...this is consodered minor....

Fires and building collapes are reported in NO....

Many skyscraper windows have blown out...

The levee near 9th street has been breached and there is now 6-8 feet of water in this section of NO...

The above was compiled from the last hr of wathcing Fox, CNN and MSNBC
Pensacola faring well--I can't believe I still have power. I have one unboarded window and I can watch the tree that Ivan left. The gusts are undoubtedly hurricane strength, but I still see leaves on the tree and the major limbs are holding. I am so relieved for my city. I am still concerned for those in Gulfport/Biloxi. Isn't Gulfport what Camille wiped out in 69?
Just checking in to see how everyone from last night (and yesterday afternoon) are doing. Good to see some familiar names. Weather is very windy here in the FL panhandle but luckily we didn't have any more tornadoes throughout the night (just the one I mentioned in Destin when I was online with a bunch of you all last night).

I'll check back laters and see if any more people from yesterday/Friday "check in".
LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-291400-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0090.050829T1336Z-050829T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
836 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR CATASTROPHIC WINDS FOR...
JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TIMBERLANE...METAIRIE...MARRERO...
KENNER...HARVEY...AVONDALE
LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CUT OFF
ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PORT SULPHUR...BELLE CHASSE
ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE
ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 832 AM CDT...MANY REPORTS ARE COMING IN STATING TOTAL
STRUCTURAL FAILURE IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA.

SEEK SUBSTANTIAL COVER NOW!!! THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 2945 9036 2948 8953 3008 8922 3004 9040

$$

24
All from here depends on the levees holding.
Could just be rainwater in a poor drainage area...
thanks orleans77! Keep the facts coming, it is GREATLY appreciated!
Thanks 77!
Thanks Orleans77! (And thanks again to everyone providing the excellent weather-related updates! Very helpful!)
pcola - I too am amazed that we still have power! I am in Residence Inn over by University Mall. Where are you?
Thanks efallon.
Far west side of town-Myrtle Grove area. Lights are dimming and coming back up. I wonder how long this power will last... How are the winds in your part of town?
radio reporter at superdome says its leaking, some places bigger than others, lots of people beyond scared (terror to the extreme), and the winds don't seem that they will let up for some time (poss 1/2 hour-hour, seems to be the worst they have felt yet), further damage is very possible...
ur welcome guys..nothing like real news based on facts...

and yeah the levees are key...one already breached...seems there will be major flooding but not catastrophic and some loss of life but again not apocalyptic...god willing...
First time post--I have been following this blog for over a week now. (yes, through all the obsenities and bickering back and forth. Even when everyone thought Stormtops predictions were ludicrous!) I came here for info because I live 35 miles NW of Cedar Key,FL. I must say that Leftyy420, you have been most helpful (except when you lost it for a few minutes the other day)and I have really appreciated your info as well as the others that have posted worthwhile info. As for the ones that just come here to start trouble, it is a shame that we have to weed through at the BS posts just to get to some useful and important info. PLEASE! Don't they have something else to do?? They have blogs just for that! My 14 year old daughter's father, grandparents, aunts and uncles live in Biloxi. Although I am sure they have moved to safe grounds, my thoughts and prayers go out to them and everyone else out there. Life will not be normal for a long time!
Winds over here seem pretty strong. My hotel room is shacking. My power is also dimming and going back up AND an odd thing just happened. My cell phone just turned itself off and back on?!?! Never seen that before:/

The Gust here are definately picking up


MSNBC just said something about the western eyewall NO right now
Colonel with National Guard who is a Civil Engineer has taken assesment of roof and deemed it structurally sound...I think it says alot of officials that when they decided on whom to "lock in" they included civil engineers....

Also if "panicky" newscasters were reporting on the roof...Id be nervous to if I was inside...keep in mind there are many infirm, old, poor and unfortunately uneducated people in the dome...
Some helpful links:

Four simultaneous local news feeds

WWLTV/KHOU webcast (switched operations to Baton Rouge) (Open in Windows Media Player)
CBS affiliate; guest had claimed WWL was the only remaining news feed out of NO
Alternate: KHOU Server

New Orleans Long-Range Radar Loop (Alternate Presentation)
NO Radar Analyzed on Wunderground (for tornadoes, etc.)

VORTEX Recon Decoder (Raw)

GOES Ch.4 IR Loop (Updates every 30 min)
GOES-12 Interactive Map (Updates every 15ish min; set options then click hurricane in picture to animate)

Lake Pontchartrain & Area Water Levels (1, 2, 3)
Near-Katrina Buoy Measurements

New Orleans Winds (click a site, then "Real-Time")
(Direct link to real-time winds at WWL-TV)

Projected Flooding from Katrina
Western edge of eyewall will pass 15 mi west off NO..but will not actually pass over NO...Biloxi will get the worst...they are in the bullseye
Tornado Warning just issued here and rain has really picked up. I tell ya...hwy 98 between Okaloosa Island and Destin needs to be elevated or something. They just got it rebuild for the billionth time and it's now flooded and will probably have to be fixed AGAIN....

Yes - Both Lefty and 77 have been extremely helpful
sewmap-I just mapquested and I am 123 miles from gulfport. Hurricane force winds extend 125 miles. I will definitely feel the hurricane here when the storm gets closer to gulf port in the next couple of hours. Based on the wind gusts becoming longer and longer--I may not be online much more. Be safe sewmap.
Keep in mind there are no more than 20,000 people in a dome that can accomodate 70,000 there are many cement overhangs that people can be moved to if the roof should worsen...although unlikely the structure / frame itself will be compromised
77 - you mean the western eyewall passed 15 miles EAST of New Orlenas - if it passed WEST of New Orleans it would have put the Eye right over downtown, no?
Good luck pcola....
thanks sewmap...just tryin to help get out as much accurate info as possible...
158. afs
Orleans77... Superdome roof seems to be a situation that looks bad, but simply looks a lot worse than the actual damage is. WWL has a reporter in a building next to the Superdome, and he's looking right at it saying that the damage appears bad.

Looks like it might be a situation in which only a trained engineer can tell the damage isn't a big problem. We're all familiar with such situations.
yeah of course i meant east..thanks for cathcin that....been up for 36 hrs...about to eat my first meal and have my first cuo of coffee in 24 hrs...sent someone out to dunkins ...
I'll take a glazed blueberry....O77....lol
afs...id bet anything its gonna hold..mark my word...its not gonna come down in a significant way nor will ther be any great loss of life...most if not all of the pople there will get throught his jus fine...had there been 180+ winds i wouldnt be sayin that...but again...u can call me on it later if im wrong...but i wont be...high confidence here
u got it egde..ive got a coffee and bacon eggn cheese bagel comin...cant wait..
Fox is reoprting a levee break
thks ..ill neva turn down compliments...i am much muck more hopeful this morning..NO will still have consderable damage....but it dodged a big bullet today...
She has weakend some but don't get stuck looking at the RADAR. It cannot see through the storm. This is why the Storm looks like the southern half is missing. I assure you it is not.. The eye has shrunk since it first made lanfall. It has gotten stronger while moving inland.Link The winds are catching up to the 920-922MB pressure.
Edge thts the levee breach on 9th street i reported earlier...
Same to ya pcola. Stay safe.
Local NO station reporting water has breached the levees in Jefferson Parrish. They are very quick to note that these are unconfirmed by officals, but people who have called the station. One person said the area hospital had 7 ft. of water on the first floor. Again, these are people calling the local station, so take it for what it's worth.
im gonna break gang for 10 min to review news reports...back in 10
where is Fox reporting the levee breach is?
"Two holes ripped in Superdome roof, visible from facility floor, according to Associated Press reports.

.. A LEVEE BREACH OCCURRED ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL AT TENNESSE STREET. 3 TO 8 FEET OF WATER IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE BREACH...LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ARABI AND 9TH WARD OF NEW ORLEANS.

St. Bernard Parish spokesman Larry Ingargiola says the parish's two shelters at Chalmette High and St. Bernard High are suffering major damage. He said Chalmette High shelter is losing its roof, and St. Bernard High has plenty of broken windows and glass. He estimates 300-plus refugees at the two sites."

from website http://www.wwltv.com/
Link
173. gagal
TWC were talking about a levee breach on the Tennessee Levee???
WDSU feed is reporting water and possble levee breach..lakeside, between w. esplanade and vetrans mem. though they are now saying that they want to confirm before they repeat it.
Yeah, if you're still there pcola, I'm 127 miles and I imagine it's less than that as the crow flys.
176. afs
Catcatcher... your continuous attempts to annoy and push buttons is a primary cause for the level of dialogue in these threads dropping as low as it gets on occasions. You claim to want accurate discussions of facts on these threads, but you post nothing to the thread but attacks and insults. You have no ability to criticise other people's contributions when you contribute nothing but personal attacks yourself.
so, the thing sped up a bit, went down in intensity and hit a bit to the east....GOOD..... disaster not near what it could have been. as bad as it still is, bad being an understatement, but still...relatively better news to wake up to this morning than the worst case scenario i was fearful to see
Fox rptg parts of sector 9 levee, the Quarter, breeching
That's the Mississippi levee....I didn't expect that I was looking for the Lake P to go if anything
Hopefully with New Orleans getting a severe scare but not a fatal strike as a result of Katrina it will lead to more refinement of the evacuation procedures or further elaboration of "safe spots" in the city so that those who lack the resources to get out of the city will have someplace safe to go to. Given our technological sophisticaton one would think a series of shelters could be constructed within the city (and in other hurricane prone areas) so that if the next big one also springs up faster than expected, there will be more secure places people can bunker in. Given the tremendous population growth in the Southeast expected over the next few decades, the dependence on evacuation is going to become more problematic moving forward.
Eyes expand while weakening go look it up.. The water between LA and Miss. The eye is still dominant. It is Symetrical as hell with convection on all sides it has not weakened. Yes it is no longer a CAT 5 but it is still causing catastrophic damage widespread.
Recon...last reports have it at 135mph....barely a 4
185. ae1
AFS, if you think that was ridiculously self-indulgent of Furstie, you should see his own blog. It's spectacular. But his accuracy rating right now is about 96 percent on any given topic, so like Smith-Barney, he earns it.

The folks in the Dome will be okay because they can retreat to the hallways. It's very, very fortunate that the storm curled away, because that roof is going to be mostly peeled off even so. Quelle disastre! And tomorrow, I hope all y'all remember that recovery and rescue are not evenly distributed. We saw plenty of that misdistribution after Charley... stand up for the po' folk, y'all. Be your brothers' keepers...
As far as hurricanes not strengthening over land....tell that to the people of South Florida. Katrina did, though that was probably due to the topography of that area. It maybe a similar situation at the moment. The storm does have water around it at the moment.
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.By the way...where's leftyy....the guy posts like an obsessive fiend for weeks on and on and on.....and is gone when a storm is hitting. C'mon leftyy.
at the rate of weakening and speed of movement, does anyone expect that katrina might not last as long as first feared and that rescue and recovery crews can get in there soon?
if i were lefty, i'd be taking a break
just imagine the horror of the wind and rain from above and possible flood waters from below, I would feel so sandwiched in the superdome...hopefully, everyone is safe and will remain safe until this thing passes over them...
Mobile Bay is over the banks and flooding the area. They claim it's 12' above normal. This is from WKRG in Mobile.
darn dial up at work, I can't even get any loops to load, the systems are so bogged down...keep up the updates, those that have the pleasure of TV...my radio has too many com'l breaks
194. afs
Catcatcher said, "asf, by calling people on their hype,lies and BS i am making a contribution. by countering BS like "hurricane is strengthening AFTER landfall" i am doing a service to the people that may not know any better."

Wrong. All you are doing is displaying your poor people skills. You have not shown errors and proven what you felt others posted were errors with by posting a better set of facts. You have been insulting people. That is both terrible people skills and terrible debating skills.

The way an effective debater proves their point is by posting better facts. That's something you haven't even attempted to do. All you have done is throw insults, catcatcher. Personal insults help nothing.
CatChaser,

In light of the confirming reports that a section of roof has indeed peeled back on the Superdome, would you care to retract your earlier allegation that I was lying?
leftyy doesn't take a break if there's a group of clouds swirling 1300 miles from anyone. Leftyy.....where are you. Hope he's okay.
hey Cat, since you know so much, what are lefty's alleged aliases? huh? why the secrecy? why not just spill?
Anyone heard from Stormtop?
OK UPDATES...

three breaches now....two on the lakeside...one on the mississsipi side...

miss side is ward 9 french quarter...6 to 8 feet of water...

Jefferson parish water supply breached ...no safe drinking water...

Gulfport..ships are crashing into buidling downtown...

Dome...the fabric is shredding badly.,,many more holes now...but structure is expected to hold...people will get wet and may be miserabel but will survive...

multiple building collapes in NO..many trapped and calling into 911 for help but emergenct personnel have to wait for storm to pass to tge to them...

NO sustained wind of 112 reported...gust to 132.....


from FOX, CNN, MSNBC
Your a real badass Cat Chaser. Catagory 4 Hurricanes aren't anything to go nuts about right. Especially not for lowest lying areas in the Gulf.
201. ae1

"...I am watching the radar loop on fox right now..." Well, there ya go, Cat!! Those fools could distort anything!! Free yourself, free yourself...!
hey,,can we keep the cat fights (excuse the pun-- was not intentional) and bitch fights off this blog please...stick to the facts, keep the emotions out of it...people are dying and if you can not control urself u have no business being here
NO radar service is gone according to Fox
thanks again 77, although I feel like I am sick and need to go home (ya, so I can watch to TV too) oh, my head........where's my boss!?!
thanks 77 -- can always count on you...
Fair enough.
208. afs
ae1 said, "AFS, if you think that was ridiculously self-indulgent of Furstie, you should see his own blog. It's spectacular. But his accuracy rating right now is about 96 percent on any given topic, so like Smith-Barney, he earns it."

Well... I guess that accuracy rate just changed becasue that lightning bolt he called on God to send down on me for "challenging God" clearly must have missed quite badly.
MSNBC is reporting daylight and has been showing live pics every few minutes where one can clearly see daylight...
ur welcome
They just said on TWC, Fox news and this local feed that i am watching out of some place in LA that they have lost the rader feed in NO that is one of the reason that the radar shots are showing very little.
Oil which had spiked to 73.25 overnight has now streadied to 68.35
I love it. "Barely a four" so that doesn't qualify as bad anymore? Ivan was a three and it was plenty bad from gulf shores to destin! A cat 1 is bad if your house is destroyed.
The Slidell/NO radar is out. The eye went right over it, just like Andrew in Homestead.
Cat turn on MSNBC, Brian Williams took photos of it an hour or so ago. I dunno if he took more.
I've been reading for a week but this is my first post. This is a great place for info and I really enjoy reading lefty's post. However, it is very interesting to note that lefty and Catchaser's and stormtop's handles are in purple while almost everyone else's are in blue. Also catchaser appears about the same time lefty is disappearing and vice-versa- maybe about a ten minute overlap, and the spelling is similar. Interesting too that lefty always replies to questions about stormtop.

Again, all that said, I'm on the Gulf coast near panama city and I really enjoy lefty's posts.
Cat please just let it go...
I agree 77
No doubt! I know absolutely nothing about storms other than after living in FLorida my entire 42 years and never experiencing a storm until Frances and Jean. It stinks! That is why I have been a silent reader up til now. I simply come here for info and to learn. Catcatcher, Do you not have anything nice to say? Are you the BLOG POLICE?? PLEASE GO NOW!!
catcatcher-there have been many photos showing the holes in the superdome, just watch MSNBC, Brian WIlliams has taken at least two different ares where you can see right outside
oh, boss said go rest my head...going home to watch for an hour or two..then I will be back. Thanks again for all the updates 77! Get some strong coffee and keep it up! You are of great importance for info in this blog. Hopefully, you are out of harms way as well.
another levee break reported...
they are in purple because you have clicked their names, click mine and it will be purple also
Some helpful links:

Four simultaneous local news feeds

WWLTV/KHOU webcast (from Baton Rouge) (Open in Windows Media Player)

Alternate: KHOU Server

New Orleans Long-Range Radar Loop (Alternate Presentation)
NO Radar Analyzed on Wunderground (for tornadoes, etc.)

VORTEX Recon Decoder (Raw)

GOES Ch.4 IR Loop (Updates every 30 min)
GOES-12 Interactive Map (Updates every 15ish min; set options then click hurricane in picture to animate)

Lake Pontchartrain & Area Water Levels (1, 2, 3)
Near-Katrina Buoy Measurements

New Orleans Winds (click a site, then "Real-Time")
(Direct link to real-time winds at WWL-TV)

Projected Flooding from Katrina
yes i am..my apartment is in FQuarter...im with family in NY...spoke to a bud and my apt is completly underwater as of 1 hr ago...
ur welcome stormy
Superdome Breached Proof for Cat
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,167313,00.html
When hurricanes decay, the eyewall collapses and the eye begins to fill in. I don't think the eye is currently tightening, as would be associated with a ramping up of wind speed, I believe the eye is beginning to collapse. This can be seen well in a water vapor image, where the eye is beginning to show more moisture and it clouding over.

I agree that the south side of the storm is just obscured from the Radar, it actually looks pretty powerful on the south from the satellite images. Right now, the south side of the storm is the strongest part. Definitely not out of the woods especially locally, but I think the storm is showing overall signs of weakening (as one would expect when it's partially over land). Heck, all it would take is a tornado to a populated location, even if it happened tomorrow, to ramp the death tolls up significantly. We won't be able to breathe easy from this storm for days, given its rain rates and overall size.

We'll see shortly in the 11 AM advisory either way.

While we're at it, we could just call a moritorium on comments related to 1) insulting other comments, 2) defending one's comment, 3) pointing out that we're not contributing by insulting or defending comments, and 4) agreeing that we shouldn't post about insulting, defending or not contributing. And yes, we'd all agree that I took part in such comments, so that can be a fifth thing we don't need to comment about.
Sorry to hear that 77:(

Glad you didn't stay...
How deep is the flooding in the Quarter?
What a weird coincidence that leftyy would dissapear from the blog at the same time that the storm was passing by where STORMTOP lives. Hope he's okay.
ahhh...my sandwich and coffee is here...
236. WSI
CatChaser, you really need to either contribute or stop causing trouble. This storm was slated to be one of the worst natural disasters this country has ever faced. Luckily the track and intensity varied enough to help ease SOME of the damage. No one was hyping the storm at all. Did you happen to read the NWS weather statement shortly before the storm hit? Read back through the blogs, the link is there. That was from a government source. However, the storm isn't near over yet either. So I suggest you either quit being so abusive to the posters here, or simply take your antics elsewhere, because they aren't appreciated here.
thnks sew..they are just possesions..my apt was at ground level...at a section below seawater 1 block from a levee..
8 feet now
Agreed Furstie
i have quite a few stupid friends who did stay...
I agree furstie. :-)
down to cat 3 now
one called me 10 min ago terrfied...
I am still totally amazed that I have power here in p-cola!
other than the expected and understood terror, Orleans, how are they holding up?
Orleans77 - What percentage of people would you estimate stayed with their homes/apartments?
one has a partial roof collapse..hes in the hallway under a matress after i told him to go there...he says the whole house is shacking...his first floor is flooded...he is the one who called me a chicken for leaving...
maybe 10%
Orleans77- I'm so sorry to hear about your place- but so happy you're ok! :-)
im have him callin me every 30 min to check in,.,,that way he can ocnserve battery life
My prayers are with them 77

I can't imagine being there through it. The conditions here in p-cola are nothing compared to what they're experiencing.
Still CAT3 is nothing to smirk at. This has been a serious situation.
As per TWC...highest surge hitting now...
thks sew...hes an idiot and im really mad at him for not listening...but hope he will be ok..weve been friends since we were 2...he did say that if he made it through hed listen to me from now on
Orleans77, I too am sorry to hear about the damage. At least you are safe.
jus coming across the wires.some oil rigs have remote sensor...according to these reports...they have lost comm link with 26 oil rigs - presumed lost..and 24 more are badly listing...
260. afs
Any word on whether the refineries and chemical tank farms are holding up? That's what I was most worried about. A city can recover from being flooded by water. It cannot recover from being flooded by toxic waste.
3 pumping stations have failed
LA governor says water rising 1 ft per hour in NO. Major breeching of levees
also the refinery in NO is sustaining serious damage while the refinery in Baton Rogue is sustaining light to moderate damage...these tow refineries refine 1 million barrels a day of oil into gas...

the offshore terminal where 25% of oil comes into the US is also sustaingin serious damage
just talked to my friend...water is coming on to the second floor where he is..hes is panicked...rightfully so..has no roof so has nowhere to go...jesus
Ya know when Lefty was giving us grief on Weatherguy's blog a few days ago I was his biggest critic.

However posting thw WORST CASE SENARIO was a GOOD THING. It parbable caused many sould to evacuate & evacuate early enough to be safe. HOW can that be negative.

I wonder how many people stayed & have or will suffer as a result of the people making fun a serious disaster.

Plwease stop grandstanding just to hear yourself talk. Go & start to HELP by doing your job.

Off soapbox & outa here!
Still CAT3 is nothing to smirk at. This has been a serious situation.


absolutely, but i am holding to the hope that cat 3 is better than 4 or 5, so damage, and lives at stake are just that much lower
i really ws hoping they could avoid the major floods
Orleans....I hope your friend comes out of this okay. What kind of device are you using to comunicate with him?
cell..i lost him in the middle of the call...hes not answering ..not sure if the service went or if hes gone...
With the Supedonme:

I thought it was rated to 200mph??? And does anyone know if the damange was caused by the wind itself, or debris hitting the roof?

BTW, the eye is becoming visible on the Short Range radar
if u guys dont mind im going to take a break,,,
colect myself..get news updates..
thks im out ice..plks pray for my friend and all the others in danger...
278. tally
Anyone know what the surge is in Perdido Bay? My brother lives on the water there, just north of 98. I havn't been able to get in touch with him this morning. He is dry as long as the surge is less than 7ft.
Valence- I think only 130 mph... it's a little older of a building I think...
Orleans....I guess in retrospect your friend would have been better off in that 4th floor of the office builing with MSY. Then the helicopter could have come and taken both of them to safety tomorrow.
Tally- what part of town are you in?
Orleans, don't fear worst. Just heard cell service has been lost.
It seems that WDSU in New Orleans has been knocked off the air. Internet feed just shows the logo with no sound, and happened mid-sentance.
guy out with the 188 sign..... lot of water where he is
Orleans77 - Your friend is in my prayers.
289. tally
I live in the SW area now. Got a couple degrees from FSU. Work in killearn area. We've been lucky every year, just wondering about my bro though.
You know, there has been so much focus on the use of the Superdome as a shelther, I wonder how many other shelters are suffering any damange.

During Charlie, one of the Port Charlotte shelter had its room start to peel off.
The WDSU feed has turned into a feed from a camera from someone's car/truck.... It's pretty amazing footage, though dangerous there.
What a weird coincidence that leftyy would dissapear from the blog at the same time that the storm was passing by where STORMTOP lives. Hope he's okay.
Hang in there 77, we're pulling for your friend...
I've posted the locations of the major Weather Channel forecasters down to within 40-70ft. Using Google Earth you can "fly to" these locations when they're on screen.

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showthreaded.php/Cat/0/Number/87977/page/0
Watching with great concern, the Wunderground.com radar site located Ocean Springs, MS. Relatives are riding out the storm between Hwy. 90 and the beach.
We are seriously concerned for their safety.

Link
Jim Cantore's position at the Army retirement home flooded up - it was supposedly at +27 above sea level and 1/2 mile in from the beaches, and he's saying the entire first floor is flooded out.

Would that make a storm surge of +35 feet or so? If so, good Lord.
Hope everyone is alive and well.....thats all that matters.....good to here from Orleans....you got the heck out of there....good for you.....
Updated blog by Dr. Masters is out.
<<
Karen Swensen says there is 3 feet of water downtown near the Hyatt. She reports several office windows coming out whole from buildings.>>

Tally- Same here- got my degree from FSU, work downtown- I live on the west end of town. We've been so lucky. I have friends in Mobile and DeFuniak, so I'm a little concerned too... my best wishes for your brother. Keep me posted...
remembering last week, with skill in hindcasting who here semeed closest to the mark:

stormtop seemed to be closest with his prediction of landfall grand isle/morgan city as cat 5-- i think he came closest here. whether this is due to his forecasting skill or the theory that the blind pig finds an acorn-- he was still pretty darn close.

lefty was hanging in there but he loses points because he early staked himself to the gfdl. as it shifted he shifted-- a fair position to take, but conservative enough that he doesn't get the style points stormy gets for calling it so far out when the models were calling for a big bend landfall.

a lot of people were panicked last night but no one loses points. having gone through ivan and watched it make landfall on a battery operated tv in chumuckla on the only tv station still broadcasting-- as one by one the tv stations dropped off the air and the radio stations stopped broadcasting as their towers fell or they lost power-- and running a bucket brigade all night as a branch from a falling tree pierced the roof as the east side of the eyewall came by-- i absolutely understand how that feels. and having been through some lower intensity storms doesn't equip you for the dread anticipation of an approaching cat 4 or 5 storm. so no one loses points for anything posted that this morning seems excessive or melodramatic or things we wouldn't have posted in the light of day or even in the face of a cat 3/cat 4 storm. we all saw the line out of the superdome and the clueless no mayor. only a jackass wouldn't be really quaesy about the potentially looming catastrophe, and we still don't know how bad it will actually be.

massive massive style points to steve gregory. i may become a paid subscriber because as i recall he was closest to the intensity and his blog also has all kinds of great info and graphics. for example, while a lot of others were noting that the trof to the west would not impact the storm because it was so big it was creating its own climate, he accurately predicted that it would nudge the storm eastward sparing no the worst, that dry air from would entrain into katrina, and this all before bed time! my only suggestion to him is he should update his blogs more frequently but thne if he's also doing apaid service there's probably a reason he doesn't.

also:

those of us in tally: how about a real world beer when this is further inland? josh, mandy, et al. any takers?
Anyone reporting from Ocean Springs? Attached is the radar link from O.S.
www.wunderground.com%2FUS%2FMS%2FOcean_Springs%2FKGPT.html
OHGamer, probably heavy wave action on top of a surge causing the flooding up to +27 ft, especially that close to the pre-surge coastline. If the water level were that high prior to waves, there would be much bigger problems where he is.
A site setup for those wishing to communicate with loved ones or just to post latest news or inquires...

www.blog.standingoutside

No advertising, popups or requests for money. Totally free. No registration required to post because some families may not have access to their emails, etc. Strictly for HELPING OTHERS!!
whats up every one i am back for a min. watching most of the covereage on tv with the wife
Hey Lefty...I was checking out the link above. This site has been a GREAT source of info...good to hear from ya Bra!!
Thanks to Orleans77 and others!! Thanks AGAIN guys!!