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Katrina's 2nd anniversary, and the tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:31 PM GMT on August 29, 2007

A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (94L) has changed little since yesterday. QuikSCAT data from 4:47am EDT this morning shows a poorly organized system with a weak, elongated circulation. Top winds were 25 knots (29 mph). Visible satellite loops show a limited amount of disorganized thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a favorable 5-10 knots over 94L, and should not be a problem for it until Friday or Saturday. By then, 94L will be moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and may encounter high wind shear if it is far enough north to feel the winds of an upper-level low pressure system that will be just north of Puerto Rico.

The presence of a large, dusty area of dry air surrounding its north side is the main thing holding back 94L. This dry air is being sucked into the circulation and is interfering with the storm's organization. When the dry air encounters a thunderstorm inside 94L, this denser dry air gets incorporated into the thunderstorm's downdraft, accelerating the downdraft, and creating arc-shaped surface cumulus clouds that mark the downdraft's position as it spreads out along the ocean surface (Figure 1). The presence of these arc-shaped surface clouds is usually a good sign that a storm is struggling with dry air and will not intensify significantly for at least the next 12 hours.

Water vapor satellite loops of the region show that 94L has not significantly moistened its environment. As the storm continues further west, it should be able to gradually do so, allowing it more of a chance to get organized. The system should track through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday, which is the earliest day I expect it could become a tropical depression. None of the reliable computer models make a believable forecast showing 94L developing into a tropical depression before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The GFDL develops 94L into a tropical storm once it makes it into the central Caribbean south of the Domincan Republic, and this is a believable forecast, if 94L hangs together and makes it into the central Caribbean. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Friday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 94L, show arc-shaped outflow boundaries from thunderstorm downdrafts.

South Carolina low
An area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles off the South Carolina coast, along an old frontal boundary. This disturbance has been designated "95L" by NHC this morning. QuikSCAT showed a sharp wind shift but no closed circulation around 95L this morning at 6:34am EDT, and measured winds as high as 50 mph. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the disturbance, which is drifting south into a region where wind shear is expected to remain low enough to allow some development this week. I do think 95L will become a tropical depression, and most of the computer models also agree on this. The models disagree substantially on 95L's track, though. Steering currents will be weak in its vicinity, and 95L may spend a number of days wandering erratically. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 95L Thursday afternoon.

Coast of Africa
The UKMET model is indicating the possible development of a tropical depression by Friday off the coast of Africa. There is a large surge of moisture with at least one strong tropical wave embedded in it coming off the coast of Africa this week, and it would be no surprise to see this wave develop into a tropical depression.

Katrina, two years later
Two years ago today, on August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina smashed into the Gulf coast with Category 3 winds and an incredible storm surge up to 27.8 feet high. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss was at ground zero in Gulfport, Mississippi during Katrina, and has posted a blog this morning on his experience, complete with some very compelling photos. His video of the storm surge washing into the hotel he was at is the most amazing storm video I've ever seen.

Margie Kieper's Katrina's Storm Surge feature on our tropical page provides an extraordinarily detailed 16-part examination of each portion of the coast devastated by Katrina. Margie is scheduled to be a guest on the Talking Tropics Internet radio show Thursday night to talk about Katrina's storm surge. Check the listings to see if there are any last minute changes.


The photo above was taken from Part 8: Lakeshore to Waveland, MS of Katrina's storm surge. An excerpt from the text:
I found an astonishing photo, of the peak of the surge in Waveland, which didn't appear to be faked, but I'm pretty much of a skeptic. The photo had this caption, "Photo taken in Waveland, MS, just North of the Railroad Tracks during Katrina around 9 AM by Judith Bradford." Note that it is being taken from the second floor window of a home, and that the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. There is a man perched on what is left of a home across the street, wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green pool noodle. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. It is likely after 9am, as the bulk of the surge came between 9 and 10 am (that is when most of the fatalities occurred along the Mississippi coast), and probably the eye is already overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds.

The information provided by the Bradfords regarding the surge was very specific. The power went out at around 6:30am at their Waveland home on the morning of the 29th. They were staying in the home for a couple of reasons; first, because the home had not received any water at all from Camille, and, secondly, because both work in the medical field and needed to be available after the storm. At almost exactly 8:30am, water started coming over the railroad track embankment, from the coast, and into their yard.

Their home is 18 inches off the ground, and the first floor has 8-foot ceilings. There is an 18-inch truss between the 1st and 2nd floors, and this is what saved their 2nd floor from being flooded. In a matter of only five to ten minutes the water came up six feet, and quickly filled the first floor after that. Judith said that is why they saved so little from the first floor; they had no time to get anything. She first tried to shut the living room front door, but the force of the water burst the door open. She grabbed a camera and the Bradfords and their children ran upstairs. They marked the high water mark (HWM) on the inner stairwell showing how high the water came ? a little more than six more inches into the truss, which is a total of 10 feet of surge.

They saved two other people besides the man who was floating by on the roof in the photo. He was a chef named Glen, holding a four month old dachshund named Pinky, in the surge. He had lost his other dog and three cockatiels when his mother's home collapsed. The roof wedged against their van, underwater, and stopped, so they were able to save him. Bill Bradford told me when he swam out to rescue that man, that the water was so warm it seemed almost hot. He said the current was nothing like white water, but was a gentle continuous flow.

Because their home is right by the railroad tracks, it is not as high in elevation as I had thought. It is around 17 feet elevation. That is close to the HWM observed in Pass Christian, 27 feet.

With such a good quality HWM, I wondered why their house was not surveyed. Judith Bradford told me that no one from the federal government seemed to realize their house was there. The road leading up to Jeff Davis (they own 6 acres and raise miniature horses, which were drowned in their stables when the surge came) was filled with debris. The teams doing Search and Recovery for bodies didn't even check the house because they didn't know it was there; it was a good thing the family survived!

The water started to go down sometime after 11am, and by noon was about chest high, and by 2pm about waist-deep. The water finally left the house completely by about 4 or 5 pm that evening. She believes the railroad track embankment kept the water from receding faster. "


I'll have an update Thursday morning, unless there's a major change in 94L or 95L. My thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by Hurricane Katrina today. Let us not forget what happened two years ago.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

and 97L in coming off the Africa Coast



Why is it that 20% of Americans can't find the USA on a map?
Good points SP, I think the lack of media information on the Pac and other basins is part of the reason, but I am also pretty confident that the folks in China are not really paying too much attention to the Atlantic basin. Nature of the beast, we all keep an eye closest to home.

That said, I would love to see some good media coverage of the Pacific storms and the impact on the areas they hit. Usually the best we get is some grainy video phone of a little rain and wind.

jp, again, what would you or I have been doing if we had all this information at our finger tips 10, 15, or 20 years ago?
96L looks real good. It's a bit close to me for comfort though. 97L also looks good; if it can stay in the Bay of Campeche long enough then I think it has a pretty fair chance. 95L has been stripped of most of it's convection, but the NHC still hasn't canceled the recon which means that it isn't out of the picture yet. 94L is looking a bit better organized but as can be expected with any wave it will die down as the day goes on then refire tonight into tommorow morning. Flareups and die-downs of convection is a process that these systems go through; JP is right, don't base you're opinion on one burst or dimishment of convection.

Currently (currently, as in right now and not definately) I think 96L holds the best chance. But this could and probably will change throughout today. Any of these four areas have a chance, or else they wouldn't have been named INVEST.
1006. Bonedog
cnn just said 94 will turn into a depression today. LOl he must watch this blog :)
SJ, if you are still here, unable to access your site this morning. problems?
1008. guygee
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:08 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.
"All im saying is that learning takes a bit less prediction and a bit more observation".

That is a good point as well jp.

Question for all: is there a product available that shows a measure of run-to-run consistency for particular models? Or do we have to review all of the models runs back through time ourselves?
Ohh me me, being a S Carolinian I know the answer to that PD, it is such as and The South Africans and what not!!!

No problems here NJ. Quick Links Try that let me know if you still have problems. Send me a WU mail or something of the message you are getting.
guygee, I think the WU offers something like that or maybe it is the NHC, but it is storm specific and it is the spaghetti plots...
SJ. Just tried again and got in, thanks
jp, if we had these kinds of toys when we were first learning to understand the tropics it would have been very different. There are a few that like to throw out predictions with out basis, but over time they will learn to better interpret the data.

And I find it hard to believe that you think you or I would have been that level headed at 12-15...
Good morning all. Just started monitoring yalls site. Am a insurance adjuster and find your different analysis interesting. Hope yall don't mind if I ask some simple ????
96L has a well defined surface low just NW of 35N 70W.

zsryzety

QuickSCAT missed 97L on it's most recents pass; this is the last pass for it's location.

fxtjcfyji
4 invests?! Wow, I think we may get a triple play out of this.
Welcome aboard nannadj ☺

Fire away, just keep in mind we sometimes like to beat up on the adjusters :~)
1019. guygee
SJ - Thank you. It seems to me that such a product would be very valuable. GFS ensembles run with a variety of initial conditions for the current GFS, but I am interested in a product that shows (for example) the variation of the GFS runs over some length of time (say 24-48 hours). Most will recall how many consecutive GFS runs alerted us to the formation of Dean, even before it emerged from the African Coast. Consecutive and consistent model runs seem to be a very good indicator of possible tropical cyclogenesis.
so I am reckoning that any thing that 96l may or may not develop into will be a fish storm...
Overzealous and immature and stupid are two totally different things. There are only a few, very few, in here that I would think that about, much less say on the blog. Basically that type of comment is not going to get them any closer to what you ultimately want which is ever post to be intelligent.

Personally I think we have a pretty good crowd in here these days.
Thanks. I like to think of myself as there to help others, and you know someone has to do it. ?? When do these storms, disturbances, get classified as invest and what is that short for. Appreciate it.
Where does CNN find the info that 94L will be a depession today?
Usually the NRL site first declares that we have an invest and basically it means it is an area that is being watched for development. They will start running the GFDL and HWRF models on them once it has an invest number and usually the SSD site will put a floater up on them.
When do these storms, disturbances, get classified as invest and what is that short for. Appreciate it.

Welcome!

Usually an invest is declared when somebody at the National Hurricane Center or Naval research laboratory wants to gather more computer model data. There's no official guidelines for calling an invest (such as there is for tropical depression or hurricanes). INVEST is short for investigation or investigative area (forget which). I've noticed that storms with well-defined center of circulations and otherwise good organization are usually declared invests.
Ninety four seems to be winding up. Maybe the recon will be needed.
We'll have all the floaters active soon.
1030. Bonedog
beats me Barbados. There met just shot it out at the end of his forcast. Thats why I said he must read this blog for his info LOL
Steering currents will be weak in its vicinity, and 95L may spend a number of days wandering erratically. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 95L Thursday afternoon.

lol

eratically!

isnt that wht andrea did?

If the student has not learned the teacher has not taught.

Not exactly sure who first said that, but if any of you know much about Six Sigma or Kaizen, or have been through coaching and teaching classes or seminars then I am sure you have heard that saying.

The patience has to come from the teachers end for the most part. Have to make folks want to learn because you will never force them to.
JP,
I'm sitting back and observing and asking too many invests for me :)

Stormjunkie,
Good job welcoming newbies on here you always seem to be first to engage them :)
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:32 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

lol TerraNova they can just shift floater 2 up a bit and can get both 95L and 96L in the same shot lol


i guess that is what they will have to do if we get another invest in the E Atl
All these invests have me confused on the numbers but the "L" off the Carolinas will in all probablility be swept away by the moderate front coming down towards the eastern coast of the US towards the weekend.......
I think thats what ophelia did...lol
everything looks to be falling apart
1039. Bonedog
leftovers the recon flight was slated for friday the 31st. I think right now its still a little too far away for them.
four invest and maybe 98L off the african coast, the tropics have defiantely woken up! Keep it nice in here :)
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:20 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

SJ I was analyzing data that was available when I was that age

not every teenager is immature and stupid, some are smart enough to know what they are looking at when they see a satellite loop


hear hear!

some do and some dont

and some are satrting to get angrey with the internet ( like me)
Thanks SG03, that all goes back to the Kaizen/Six Sigma type stuff though. 10 minds are better then 1. The more points of view we have the more we all learn imho.
Posted By: Bonedog at 12:35 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

leftovers the recon flight was slated for friday the 31st. I think right now its still a little too far away for them.


they are going to fly into 95L
Seems odd that as recently as the 5:30 TWO that the NHC doesn't even mention 96L.
Posted By: hurricanehamster at 12:35 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:20 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

SJ I was analyzing data that was available when I was that age

not every teenager is immature and stupid, some are smart enough to know what they are looking at when they see a satellite loop


what age are you talking about because I am 16 and can analyze data pretty well
thanks everyone.
Is the storm off the east coast, I guess 96L going to turn tropical in anyones opinion? If it does what are the chances Hatteras NC gets a little storm? Or will it get shoved out to sea by the next weak front
1050. guygee
95L east of Florida is seems to be losing energy compared to 96L to its north (0815Z WV):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Posted By: TheStormWillSurvive at 12:34 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:32 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

lol TerraNova they can just shift floater 2 up a bit and can get both 95L and 96L in the same shot lol


i guess that is what they will have to do if we get another invest in the E Atl


hmm

i think theres 1 about to form!

how long till we have from 90l to 90l

u know 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 90

all @ the same time!
1052. Bonedog
Storm we were talking about 94L. If you look at the notes section it says possible low level invest at the coordinates for 94L on the 31/1200z
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:39 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

thats what I mean SWS

I think we need to give teenagers a bit more credit, some do know what they are looking at and do know they need to observe and ask questions to truly learn


and I think that those that do know information should remember when they did not know anything and how much they wanted to ask questions and get answers and then they should answer questions.
1055. SLU
WOAH!! .. This must be a record. There a 4 invests in the Atlantic this morning. (94L, 95L, 96L, 97L)

Potential for 4 tropical storms!
Posted By: Bonedog at 12:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

Storm we were talking about 94L. If you look at the notes section it says possible low level invest at the coordinates for 94L on the 31/1200z


ok just wanted to make sure you understood

also who thinks that they will fly into 96L today instead
96L looks like a depression to me...Seems like it caught forcasters by surprise?
Posted By: TheStormWillSurvive at 8:43 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

Posted By: Bonedog at 12:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

Storm we were talking about 94L. If you look at the notes section it says possible low level invest at the coordinates for 94L on the 31/1200z


ok just wanted to make sure you understood

also who thinks that they will fly into 96L today instead


i dont see why they woudnt fly into both, they are close enough to each other
also who thinks that they will fly into 96L today instead



I do.
Thanks for the picture Guy...That clears up the numbers for me.....Agree that 96 is looking better than 95...They are probably too close to each other for any significant development of both at the same time so I declare 96 the winner.........lol
1061. guygee
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.
"Do we blame the teacher if the student doesnt understand the information? Most teachers will go to great lengths to help out students, but ultimately its up to the student to understand the information, if he/she cant do that, you cant blame the teacher."

These are words of wisdom, but believe me these days we blame the teachers. State and Federal government have ill-advised policies that treat education as a business, with the student as the customer. The customer is never wrong!!
jp, folks are different and just because you got one to understand it does not mean that everyone understood it the same way. We all have different ways of understanding things. Just telling someone something is truth has not helped them learn. You have to convince them, the light bulb has to come on. The flicking of that switch is different for each one of us.
I don't think they will declare an TD's today. Tomorrow may be different. 96L could very well be the next TD, followed by 95 and (possibly)94. 97 has a small window of oppurtuinity, but anything is possible. CV could come into play later.
I have a 13 year old daughter that is in the gifted and talented class, she is a very bright girl. She is also a little more mature than her friends. She is not a giddy little girl. She likes to learn. Although I haven't gotten her intrested in the weather yet, I think she would be very good at it.
1065. SLU
In a way, this is kind of exciting for some of us weather freaks. It's like a race taking place in the Atlantic. Let's see which invest will win.

1st place - Felix
2nd place - Gabrielle
3rd place - Humberto
4th place - Ingrid
94L may be able to gain some upper level support (divergence)today via the upper trof over Hispanola.

Still think recurve is possible. A close call for me.
95L and 94L may exit to the NE together.

Ridge building ongoing in GOM/BOC. Should remove some of the ever-changing variables present over the W Gulf/BOC that have kept this an area of interest. ULL's, trofs, waves, etc.
This ridge should shove 97L onshore as forecast.

I hope I got all my Invest's/Geography correct.



1067. guygee
weathermanwannabe - Agreed, 95L and 96L are too close together right now for both to develop, and
"in the end, there can be only one!" :-)
1068. Bonedog
no problem storm.

who knows they may add flights
Who said this season was a bust, good god the tropics are woke. Folks get ready.
guygee, I'm not talking about discipline issues here, strictly learning. What you said certainly applies to some of the discipline issues we are seeing in this day and age.

Let's see if this helps....Hypothetical situation here....

You are in an Asian country, in a village where they use brass rings to stretch the necks of women. This leads to serious health problems later in life. Telling these folks they are stupid and ignorant is not going to help them change their practices. I would think that you would have to work for years just to convince a few to start changing their way of thinking.

Ok, sorry for the tangent y'all
Well I would blame the teacher is a student told the teacher that they did not understand, and the teacher just said well you were not listening. that is what is wrong with the teachers here, they will not take the time to make such a student understands.
1075. Bonedog
huh the SSD site added 97L and just shifted 95s north a tad.
94L has shown that there is good organization on the latest loop! You can see a vital but small flare up on the southeast side. Also, in the last loop there is a much more definite circulation. This has all happened since the 5 a.m. update by NOAA.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 8:54 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

SJ who said anything about people being stupid?



You Did
*** just a side note if all 4 were to develop we would only be 2 storms behind dare I saay it 2005 ***
Yeah...And looking at the East Coast WV loop, it definately looks like the front coming down is going to sweep both off to the East...However, a flight might be needed anyway because of our folks in Bermuda (lets not forget them.......)...96L will probably end up being a windy rain event for them over there...
Good Morning Wow we got 4 invest!

97L



96L



96L looks the best out of all 4
1084. Bonedog
96 is looking impressive right now. Showing classic signatures of a developing cyclone. Just glad a front is on its way over to give it a good shove. A little too close for comfort for me.
Latest surface analysis/24 hr forecast shows that the high over New Jersey is disspiating. It shows 96L near Cape Hatteras in 24 hours. The 1023 millibar high to the east will not weaken or strengthen, but it will shift a bit farther south. The frontal system currently stretching from the southcentral to northeastern US may push 96L away to sea.

srydety
Sure the teacher knows they are having issues if they are making off the wall statements. That is the teachers job.

Discipline as I said is a totally different issue.

Thanks DBW

jp, another good one that is hard to get a grip on is...It is now what you mean to say, but how people interpret it that matters.
The Microwave pass even looks good

So 94l is the only invest out there that has a chance of impacting the United States.

Am I right
Is there stats as to how often a TD turns into a Hurricane. Also how often are the models correct when they forecast landfall.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:40 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

Im posting this again because it needs to be said, and it probably didnt sink in last night, keep in mind this isnt for everyone on here:

the problem is everyone on both sides here are hanging on every little flare up or die down of convection

if an area blows up convection, some say oh its making a comeback, could be a TD, well no it could just be blowing up convection and it will die out soon

if an area dies down in convection, others are saying its done, it wont develop, well no to that too, it could all just be temporary

look at the area by the yucatan, it was a big blob of convection a few hours ago, now look at it

really how stupid does everyone look when they overanalyze a "developing" system and then it loses all its convection 6 hours later and how stupid is it that some underanalyze a system and say its dead when it doesnt continually organize at a steady rate



You posted it twice, once yesturday and again today. and the fact of "looking or being" in my opinion is only semantics here. Quite often, actually several times a day your comments to any one person are to LOL at what they said and then telling them how they are wrong. Seems to me everyone should be able to post their opinion, so long as it doesnt hurt anyone or create havoc, but hey, thats JMO
nann, that just depends on the conditions surrounding each system. As for the models, 3 days out they are pretty dang good. 4 days, still fairly good, after 5 days they start going down hill sometimes.
A repost w/edit.
Prepare for this encounter w/a touch of class and humor. Or the ignore button.

Posted By: boobless at 3:30 AM GMT on August 30, 2007.

Ya know, some of you are in for some serious ownage from AMYone tomorrow. Could commence @ any time.

Let me make it perfectly clear. I never said a storm would be named by Friday. I never said a storm would be named by Jack either (think Groucho). Although I did refer to 94L as a "he"-but thats it-my hands are clean-my conscience is clear-I have made peace with my maker).

Prepare for the monsoonal gyre.
See ya'll on the other side (if you survive).
1094. Bonedog
12.5km QS pass this morning shows a very impressive 96L. I do see some 20 to 30knt barbs in clean areas but inside a rain contaminated area there are some 45 to 50knt barbs but those cant be trusted. Probably a downdraft or microburst.

96l
So 94l is the only invest out there that has a chance of impacting the United States.

94L, 95L, and 96L need could still impact the US.
So 94l is the only invest out there that has a chance of impacting the United States.

Wouldn't count out 95. ULL near Fl will ultimately be the factor in 95's movement.
1098. guygee
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:53 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.
"really isnt that what teachers do? students need to take more responsibility for what they are learning, teachers dont know a student is having an issue unless the student speaks up and tells them"

Or...the student never talks to the teacher at all, but in the mistaken belief that she is failing the class, gets Daddy to come with her to visit The Dean, where she breaks out in sobbing and tears.

That works much better, as The Dean is bothered by having to deal with trivialities, the student is the customer, and you know what rolls downhill...

P.S. The situation presented above is for rhetorical purposes only. Please do not use for life and death decisions.
Early models are starting to come out for 96L and 97L:

96L INVEST:

zdrytyu

97L INVEST:

ftuyu
Good Morning All. Can someone put a image or link up to where I can see 94L,95L,96L,97L? Thank you in advanced.
Sheri
lol guygee...I agree our educational system needs a lot of work, but that is not really what this conversation was about.

It was more about how best to help folks in a setting like this learn, and ultimately how each of us can learn from a setting like this blog.
what does school have to do with 4 INVETS and possibly a next one
Good Morning All. Can someone put a image or link up to where I can see 94L,95L,96L,97L? Thank you in advanced.
Sheri


Link
Sherri, go here and click on each number
Invests rule in tropics but in all honesty none of systems pose a significant threat to the united states. Get out and enjoy your holiday weekend.Adrian
1108. emagirl
wow alot has happened since yesterday...
Sorry, I it easy to get off of subject on just one comment. ok back to weather,

I really just don't see anything out there that is going to form into a TD anytime soon.
Anyone notice that Belize has been getting pounded with rain over the last 2 days?

Just going by the satellite images, I'm going to guess some rainfall measurements easily exceed a foot of rain.
Anyone else seeing a "Special tropical disturbance statement" or just a simple declaration of TD6 at 11am coming out for 96L?

Especially since it's so close to the northeast coast
I am totally lost now dangit. What happened to the 8:05 TWD? did i miss it? and what happened to the floater on 95L are they giving up on that one all together?

There is a reason why NHC, and Dr. M, are relatively conservative on development & cyclogenisis issues....It takes a lot of "persistence" and patience when it comes to the tropics.....(and the fact that jumping the gun on any of these potential systems causes a lot of resources to be needlesly put into action).....That's the bigggest lesson that I have "learned" from many of you regulars, and Dr. M, during my last two years of participation on the blog...This season, particularly, has been a good learning curve for me....So......Everyone have a great day and I'll BBL...
1115. Bonedog
guys enough with the school tangent ok?

4 invest with 3 possibles affecting land.

Lets get it together.

Please
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 9:12 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

the moved the floater from 95L to 96L


Yeah i saw that but they changed it again now it is only on 96L
1118. Bonedog
nevermind with my previous stament didnt realize they droped 95 from view

96 is the big gun right now. we have convection, outflow, even inflow channels.

maybe a special statment issued at the 11am
Bone go look again they changed it again
it is only on 96L
96L's looking real good on visible; very impressive banding features.

dyxftu
Actually the approaching cold front should keep both of those ugly things out to sea and 94L continues to show no significant signs of tropical cyclone development.Oh wait forgot the other mess in the BOC has no time to really get its act together with just some rain for mexico.Adrian

Fun to watch but no worries.
so is there a chance that the high could push 96L/TD6 over close if not over land before the front gets there?

also the front is stalled for the past few hours and was not moving very fast before that so that could mean trouble according to this Link
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 9:16 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

actually Adrian 96L looks very good

As i said fun to watch but no significant worries at this time for the united states.
1125. Bonedog
I noticed that DBW I edited my post :)

96 is definatly the impressive one to watch now. We may see something issued at 11am
Wow 4 invest!! but none are a threat to the US except maybe 94
DaytonaBeachWatcher, I agree, where is the 8am?
Posted By: donedeal at 9:21 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

DaytonaBeachWatcher, I agree, where is the 8am?


I know lol they lost it!
1131. Bonedog
anyone else getting server error messages? seems everytime I post or update the page it happens till I close the window and open it back up from a fresh link
94L Does not look as good as it looked yesterday, it seems to be fighting sheer and dry air. Do ya'll still think it will form into a TD?
lol

95l should be classed as poofing!

96l is almost t.s felix!
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:20 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

actually Adrian you called 96L ugly lol

you hurts its feelings lol


u know whtll hapen

itll turn to a cat 5 and put a direct aim at him!
I dont think we have enough invests! And will ANY of them becomes storms?!

I WANT MORE INVESTS!

(Most likely: 96L and 97L, in the short term [today], 95L in the long term.)
putintang3, my doubts on 94L are waning day by day but i have not given up on it totally, becuz these things do move into more favorable enviorments and suprise us.
Run the wide visiable on the atlantic Ninety four looks as good as ever moving due west.
come take a survey at my blog or on here just put which storms you think will develop and which ones will not results will be on my blog


Link
Posted By: hurricanehamster at 9:25 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:20 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

actually Adrian you called 96L ugly lol

you hurts its feelings lol

u know whtll hapen

itll turn to a cat 5 and put a direct aim at him!

Uh no both those systems especially 96L will be nothing but a fish problem.95L looks very disorganized.
Hey there! I've learned from this blog for a couple years now and all the info has been great. Can someone explain to me the definition of a floater? I was told the only dumb question is one that wasn't asked..... Thanks to everyone for the daily enlightenment!!!!
the NHC places close up sat images of areas of interest these are called floaters as they can move to follow a storm you can find them by clicking Sattalite on the NHC website
1142. emagirl
so how much of a chance do we have of any of the storm affecting us
I live 1 block off the beach up here in VB, please tell me 96L will stay out to sea? Our local weathermen are showing signs of concern this morning
23, No chance 96 gets large enough that it gets close to Cape Cod? It should want to pull towards that front as the initial interaction between the two happens no?
1145. guygee
For tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, "banding features" refers to cyclonic bands of clouds twisting into the storm towards the low-level center. Not to be confused with anti-cyclonically twisting cirrus in the upper-level high. This is how the term "banding features" is defined in the context of applying the Dvorak technique, for example as shown in the worksheet below:

Dvorak technique worksheet
96L 97L are up
Updated my blog with my expectations for 96L.

Feel free to take a look!
Welcome Oakie, glad to have ya out of lurk mode ☺

"floater" is just a term used for a zoomed in satellite view of an area or storm. They don't actually move anything.
Anyone get this message on WU?

Internal Server Error
The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.

Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Morning taz, you're getting a late start out there on the W coast ☺ THey been up for a little while now.
It appears this is all we're going to hear from the NHC for awhile. Maybe they feel they had better get some rest before things really heat up, lol!
000
NOUS42 KNHC 291415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 29 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 30/1500Z
D. 29.0N 76.5W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 31/0200Z
D. 28.0N 76.0W
E. 31/0500Z TO 31/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS REMAINS A THREAT.
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 13N 58W AT 31/1800Z.

I don't know if you guys seen this link....

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_enam_ 1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1
Link to more early cycle models:

Link
Posted By: emagirl at 9:33 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

so how much of a chance do we have of any of the storm affecting us.

Chances are very low to 0 any of these systems will bring any significant problems to the united states.The only one i see that might and i stress might is 94L which there is small chance it could make it into the GOM but the chances of that happening dont look high as of now.94L is still not showing any really push towards better organization but as it gets closer to the islands warmer SST'S and somewhat favorable upper levels might be enough for some slow development.If i had to make a call on its future track i'll go with something similar to dean right now. Adrian
1155. Bonedog
eagles I have been getting that as well. I made a post about it a few up from yours
Thanks SJ

Hope you don't mind questions now and again! I appreciate all the help.
Ok thanks for the response, I'll just go it alone
what time is it in florida
I cannot believe we have 94L 95L 96L and 97L and Gil and 95E and 92C and Fitow! It may be the most active day of the hurricane season!
1160. Bonedog
I think the reason we dont have the 8am TWo or any updates from the NHC for recons or anything is because when the Navy hit up 2 invests to add up to 4 the met on duty spit his coffee all over the computer!
what time is it in florida

9:44 AM eastern time at the time of this post.
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 9:44 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

I cannot believe we have 94L 95L 96L and 97L and Gil and 95E and 92C and Fitow! It may be the most active day of the hurricane season!

Could very we'll be and be happy there is not a major hurricane baring down on the U.S.
man the TWD must be a mile long at this point
leftovers,
I agree with you. Saw that wide angle atl view and looks like bands on north ans south sides are forming.
TN, I also updated the SFWMD model page on the Quick Links page. Not sure what the deal was with the other link. Can find some early cycle guidance there as well.

Well Adrian, I am not quite as confident as you are about 96. If I were in the NE, namely the Cape Cod area, I would keep a pretty close eye on it and the front. Going to be a close call and if the front slows just a little then it could easily make the CC area imho.
1166. Bonedog
Weather Radios Recalled by Oregon Scientific Due to Failure to Receive National Weather Service Alerts

Link
Good one Bonedog!
The NHC starts the invests, not the Navy, I believe.
Posted By: Bonedog at 9:45 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

I think the reason we dont have the 8am TWo or any updates from the NHC for recons or anything is because when the Navy hit up 2 invests to add up to 4 the met on duty spit his coffee all over the computer!


lmao

Posted By: mississippiwx23 at 9:49 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

The NHC starts the invests, not the Navy, I believe.


Yes that is correct
Good call BD!

Mwx23, that may be true, but often times the Navy has it up first, and honestly I think either can declare it an invest. I don't think the GFDL/HWRF starts running unless the NHC says so though...
Posted By: Bonedog at 1:45 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

I think the reason we dont have the 8am TWo or any updates from the NHC for recons or anything is because when the Navy hit up 2 invests to add up to 4 the met on duty spit his coffee all over the computer!
---------------
thts a classic
1173. Bonedog
I always thought it was the Navy only because they show up on their website befor ethe NHC.

Either way when all 4 popped up the met on duty spit his coffee all over the computer :)

Thats why nothing has been issued like it normally would be.
They probably do colaborate...but I believe it is still the NHC's call to place an invest on the system.
thanks for the weather radio info Bonedog!
1176. guygee
Posted By: VaSurfer at 1:33 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.
"I live 1 block off the beach up here in VB, please tell me 96L will stay out to sea? Our local weathermen are showing signs of concern this morning".

VaSurfer - Please keep close track of NHC forecasts and especially forecasts from your local NWS office in Wakefield VA, here.

It is a tricky forecast because a trough currently over the Ohio valley is approaching, which may draw 96L NW for a short while before sweeping it out to sea. It looks like you will be safe, but keep a close eye out until it is well north of you.
by the way all 4 invests are now on floaters
SJ ive always used my friends link for tropical cyclone models.You might want to give it a try. TROPICAL CYCLONE MODELS

You can get ensembles,late models and current.


They also give some nice WRF runs. They havn't updated the models with 96L and 97L but they should do so shortly (~14 UTC; 10 AM EDT)
is 96L the same has 95L?
guygee, that is why I am wondering if 96 could brush by Cape Cod on it's exit to the NE eventually...
1181. Melagoo
Atlantic

97L.INVEST
96L.INVEST
95L.INVEST
94L.INVEST

Looks like things have been turned up a notch LOL!
all 6 Floaters are in use guess they have to get some more before the end of the year
1183. Bonedog
this server error message is really anyoing me.
is 96L the same has 95L?

No; but they came from the same frontal boundary.
1185. guygee
Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:57 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.
"guygee, that is why I am wondering if 96 could brush by Cape Cod on it's exit to the NE eventually..."

Agreed SJ, folks up there need to be on the alert and keep themselves updated regularly.
1186. Bonedog
your welcome to all the folks that said thanks about the weather radio recall. Hopefully the Doc will put it up top later when he does a new blog that way all can see it and it doesnt get buried.
Holy crap I get up and turn on the computer and we have 4 invests!! Sorry if this has been said this morning but wow. Good Morning by the way to all of the regulars and even to the not regulars. Please stay a while and become a regular. :P
where's 97L?
hi all, since 8 am twd has been put on hold due to coffee impact, will they NOT do one til 2 or will it eventually show up? jo
where's 97L?

Bay of Campeche; the same wave that seemed to have developed before moving over Belize.
where is 97L
Alright y'all, I'm out for awhile

See ya soon, got to get back to work on some projects :~)
I bet there will be (Sub)tropical Depression 6 by 11AM.
1194. C2News
I updated my blog
Ummm Just taking a peak at the latest Qscat and about pulled a bonedog incident with the coffee on the computer when I saw this . . .

Latest Qscat
Posted By: sullivanweather at 1:25 PM GMT on August 29, 2007.

95L is going to have to lose some of the shear that it's under right now.

I would also caution that 95L isn't the only low pressure along this old front. There's another non-tropical area of low pressure about 350 miles to it's northeast which could be more of a threat.

The front that extends from the upper Great Lakes down into the Texas panhandle isn't supossed to move off the coast completely until Friday evening, so these systems have about 60 hours or so to get their act together.



Looks like 96L has become the dominate feature in this frontal trough off the coast.

I think we'll have our next cyclone here, whether it be tropical or subtropical. Especially since it's close enough to the coast to be a threat.
That my friends is a closed LLC off of North Carolina coast. Not sure if it is classified as tropical as I haven't done much research or even looked at it for that matter but I thought that was interesting.
It looks as if there is an eye.
New Blog
1200. SLU
NEW BLOG!
I posted about Oregon Scientific Weather Radio Recalls yesterday, not realizing that the page I linked was to an outdated similar story - the same company but a different model WR122 - back in 2000. Not a good track record for them is it?
New blog up
Bonedog, I had problems with the same error message. I finally took a backdoor entry to the comments. Dr. M's blog would pop up but when I clicked more, it bogged down. I finally used another link from the home page.
excuse me, but why is everything in italics?