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Katrina-level storm surges have more than doubled due to global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on March 25, 2013

Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years, according to a storm surge index developed by Aslak Grinsted, an assistant professor at the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute. The index uses data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey from 1923 - 2011, and is part of a statistical model that links global temperatures to the risk of Katrina-level storm surges. Because of global warming, Katrina-magnitude storm surge events have now more than doubled in frequency since the late 1800s, Grinsted and colleagues argue, in research published in March 2013 in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). Their statistical model found that an increase of 0.4°C in global temperatures was sufficient to double the odds of Katrina-magnitude storm surges. Since global temperatures have risen 0.6°C since the late 1800s, "we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” said Grinsted in a press release. Projecting into the future, the model predicts that if the global climate warms as expected by 2°C before the end of the century, Katrina-level storm surge events will become ten times more common, and a Katrina-level surge will occur, on average, every 2 years, instead of every 20 years. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Since this is a simple statistical model, I am hopeful that the relationship Grinsted at al. found might break down as the climate warms, due to unexpected changes in hurricane tracks, wind shear, etc. However, this high-end consequence of global warming is quite possible, and is something coastal planners should should consider, particularly since the U.S. population living along the coast is expected to grow from 123 million in 2010 to 134 million people by 2020, according to a NOAA report issued on March 25. We need to retreat from barrier islands highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in significantly improved shoreline protection measures in the coming decades.


Figure 1. High water marks on East Ship Island, Mississippi, after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Katrina brought the highest storm surge ever recorded on the U.S. coast, 27.8' at Pass Christian, MS. Left image: Bark stripped off a tree with salt-burned pine trees in the background (note the 25 ft (7.65 m) long survey rod for scale). Right: Massive beach and over wash erosion illustrated by damaged and snapped pine trees along the beach. Arrows show the the high water mark left by the storm surge. Image credit: Fritz et al., 2007, "Hurricane Katrina storm surge distribution and field observations on the Mississippi Barrier Islands" (PDF File), Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science (2007), doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2007.03.015.


Figure 2. Number of Katrina magnitude surge events per decade for the past and future computed using gridded global temperatures and a statistical model relating global temperatures to storm surges. Confidence intervals of 5% and 16% are shown in the lighter blue colors. Image credit: Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures" PNAS March 18, 2013 201209980, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1209980110

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting HurrikanEB:


Retirement is specific to the damages inflicted on the local area... Generally, Juan (2003) is regarded as Canada's most destructive hurricane in over a century... Igor had the same price tag as Juan. True, $200 million is just a drop in the bucket for the US, but for Canada, Igor was significant.


Really gives everyone a perspective...
So unusual... me no likey.


Quoting allahgore:


The latest polls show the majority of people understanding climate change. What's next? What's the plan?

A good start would be for our elected leaders to actually pay attention to what polls say of the majority of U.S. citizens. Heck, even having congressional representation match closely to vote totals would be a nice start...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how about this one...since you mention deaths

Gordon 1994


1,147 deaths!!!
$514 million in damages

DID NOT GET RETIRED! why?

Even though most of the deaths occurred in Haiti (over 1,100), they did not send a representative to the WMO meeting next spring to have that name retired.
If it were retired back then, there should have been another name for 2000, 2006 and 2012 G name


Gordon dumped 5" to 15" of rain across E C FL. I was in middle school then and I remember the flooding being severe as Lake Monroe flooded into Downtown Sanford.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the december JB's outlook. I imagine that very soon he will do his next one.



Link
And what do you think for us here in the islands and tropical activity?
Quoting ScottLincoln:

A good start would be for our elected leaders to actually pay attention to what polls say of the majority of U.S. citizens. Heck, even having congressional representation match closely to vote totals would be a nice start...


As long as you have multi-millionaires and billionaires as leaders, none of them will get anything done. And for that...deeper down the rabbit hole we go.
Quoting LargoFl:
I know this sounds mean, but all along the whole coastline of the usa, ALL the low lying lands should be US park lands..but its too late now for THAT to happen..people LOVE to live right on the waters edge
Not too late but very very expensive to acquire all that privately held property. But maybe after several horrific storms and storm surges, the property values will go down and people will want to donate the land for a tax deduction. Not that I'm wishing storms and destruction on anyone - far from it - but that's what is being projected.
Quoting Gearsts:
And what do you think for us here in the islands and tropical activity?


For us it all depends on how is the ridge positioned and how strong it is to cause systems to threat the NE Caribbean islands. I guess we will have to wait until June or July to see a definite pattern and know more if we will have threats.
Quoting VR46L:
@ all the people who responded I honestly didn't realize that it was retired . and was extremely surprised .

I perfered his little sister Jules a sweet Cane
I think it was the worst hurricane in Newfoundland and it cause 200millions dollars in damage.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Well, this often said, "Why don't our elected officials listen to their constituents?".

Until we, the voters, stop electing officials that turn a blind eye to the what the science tells us, then we cannot muster the political will needed to make the changes that will be required. The longer this is delayed, the more likely it will be forced upon us as a knee jerk reaction to a problem that can be intelligently approached. The time left for reasoned approaches is running down and we still have enough elected officials that will counter any well reasoned approaches to the problems that we all will face.


No, they are just hedging there bets, and waiting for someone else to jump in first so they don't look silly.

Are we sure enough about sea-level increase, due to Climate Change,:
* To put signs on the coast warning residents of how high the sea at a future specified time?
* To require disclosures on coastal property transactions warning of future sea-levels?
* that insurance companies started putting 'sea-level change' riders/adjustments on their policies?

I think the debate feels like Hype right now because:
* It is a sure bet right now to get good ratings on your TV program/channel, magazine, web-site, if you harp on this topic, and the more dire results the better. (everyone loves a train-wreck?)
* It is probably easy money to get funding grants to try to analyze this event, predict the future, and find ways to prevent. (We need to do this, but at some point, when we are sure enough, we need to divert some of this money to preparing for the dire results.)

It seems like we are not at the point yet where the money-trail points beyond hype.

Quoting allahgore:


The latest polls show the majority of people understanding climate change. What's next? What's the plan?


Public opinion only gets you so far. For political change to occur, we need elected officials in the appropriate committees that not only reflect public opinion, but also actually understand and accept the science itself. There lies the disconnect. So to get back to your first question, more pressure on officials due to a larger majority supporting the science needs happen. So while you say we are yelling through a bull horn, maybe we are, but that's how social movements put pressure on governments. We don't have the millions of dollars to lobby to congress, our lobby is our voices en masse...the more the better.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So let's say I don't beleive in G.W or refuse to?.

Am I retarded then according to you?.I'm getting that impression from you..

You can't make people beleive in what you want them to beleive unless they choose to believe it.I educate my children that the world is changing and such but if they choose to not beleive it does that mean they are retarded?.
If you taught your children the world was changing ( which I assume you are doing because you see the changes), what is your reaction when they don't believe you? Of course you don't think they are retarded. Do you think you need to try harder in your teaching? Do you think they can't bear the thought of the changes? Do you think they just don't want to understand?

That's kind of how many of us feel when people refuse to even look at, much less accept, the science that proves global warming.
513. txjac
Quoting Naga5000:


Public opinion only gets you so far. For political change to occur, we need elected officials in the appropriate committees that not only reflect public opinion, but also actually understand and accept the science itself. There lies the disconnect. So to get back to your first question, more pressure on officials due to a larger majority supporting the science needs happen. So while you say we are yelling through a bull horn, maybe we are, but that's how social movements put pressure on governments. We don't have the millions of dollars to lobby to congress, our lobby is our voices en masse...the more the better.


I agree but it needs to be explained in better terms. I've attempted to wade through some articles but sometimes unless you are a scientist its not easy. Spend a lot of time looking up words or reserching and wind up getting frustrated.


Edit ...just thought there should be a "climate change for dummies" book ...went to google and there is! Guess I'll start with these
Quoting DFWdad:


No, they are just hedging there bets, and waiting for someone else to jump in first so they don't look silly.

Are we sure enough about sea-level increase, due to Climate Change,:
* To put signs on the coast warning residents of how high the sea at a future specified time?
* To require disclosures on coastal property transactions warning of future sea-levels?
* that insurance companies started putting 'sea-level change' riders/adjustments on their policies?

I think the debate feels like Hype right now because:
* It is a sure bet right now to get good ratings on your TV program/channel, magazine, web-site, if you harp on this topic, and the more dire results the better. (everyone loves a train-wreck?)
* It is probably easy money to get funding grants to try to analyze this event, predict the future, and find ways to prevent. (We need to do this, but at some point, when we are sure enough, we need to divert some of this money to preparing for the dire results.)

It seems like we are not at the point yet where the money-trail points beyond hype.



The problem is the "debate" is actually a false one. It is completely constructed with no basis in reality. In the science community, the debate simply does not exist. You are right about the hype now, and that is totally the media's fault. Why give a public forum to those who deny the science and try to debunk it with bad math and unfounded correlations? Because the debate sells, it keeps people divided and talking, and turns it into an us vs. them issue. I find the whole thing to be rather sad.
Quoting FLwolverine:
Not too late but very very expensive to acquire all that privately held property. But maybe after several horrific storms and storm surges, the property values will go down and people will want to donate the land for a tax deduction. Not that I'm wishing storms and destruction on anyone - far from it - but that's what is being projected.
yes maybe parcel by parcel along the coastline, is the property is destroyed by storms it should be turned into parkland, the owners would have collected insurance and perhaps the town,city or state govt gives them some compensation..well perhaps that IS the future
Quoting txjac:


I agree but it needs to be explained in better terms. I've attempted to wade through some articles but sometimes unless you are a scientist its not easy. Spend a lot of time looking up words or reserching and wind up getting frustrated.


I agree, and this is a huge problem. As of 2005, only 22% of Americans had a bachelor's degree. So how can we realistically expect the average person to be able to read and comprehend sophisticated research papers written at a grade level and using jargon that goes over the average person's head? (Please don't mistake this as an attack on those without degrees or calling the masses dumb). There are some amazing studies out there on this very issue when it comes to children trying to learn from text books that are written above their grade level of comprehension. I don't know what the solution is here, but you brought up a very interesting and real issue that may be responsible for at least some aspects of the denying of climate science, or science in general for that matter.
listen folks..all this talk aout climate change and what can we do about it....remember back..when science was messing around with atoms..what happened?...Hirosima BOOM......what do you THINK..will happen when Man finds out HOW to control weather?....YOU trust them i surely do NOT
found this next week
maybe MCS squall line sinking south into TN/MS/AL/GA
possibly iso tornadoes.











Quoting LargoFl:
listen folks..all this talk aout climate change and what can we do about it....remember back..when science was messing around with atoms..what happened?...Hirosima BOOM......what do you THINK..will happen when Man finds out HOW to control weather?....YOU trust them i surely do NOT


We aren't trying to control the weather, we are trying to restore the equilibrium in the climate system.
dumps more snow in midwest



ohio valley and NE

New paper out totaling the ocean heat at all depths, concluding global warming has accelerated. Blames the more La Nina events lately (which recent papers blame on solar cycle max) & the neg PDO for mixing the oceans more..

some main points.. whole article is here..

Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years. This is because about 90% of overall global warming goes into heating the oceans, and the oceans have been warming dramatically.

As suspected, much of the 'missing heat' Kevin Trenberth previously talked about has been found in the deep oceans. Consistent with the results of Nuccitelli et al. (2012), this study finds that 30% of the ocean warming over the past decade has occurred in the deeper oceans below 700 meters, which they note is unprecedented over at least the past half century.

Some recent studies have concluded based on the slowed global surface warming over the past decade that the sensitivity of the climate to the increased greenhouse effect is somewhat lower than the IPCC best estimate. Those studies are fundamentally flawed because they do not account for the warming of the deep oceans.

The slowed surface air warming over the past decade has lulled many people into a false and unwarranted sense of security.




Ocean Heat Content from 0 to 300 meters (grey), 700 m (blue), and total depth (violet) from ORAS4, as represented by its 5 ensemble members. The time series show monthly anomalies smoothed with a 12-month running mean, with respect to the 1958–1965 base period. Hatching extends over the range of the ensemble members and hence the spread gives a measure of the uncertainty as represented by ORAS4 (which does not cover all sources of uncertainty). The vertical colored bars indicate a two year interval following the volcanic eruptions with a 6 month lead (owing to the 12-month running mean), and the 1997–98 El Niño event again with 6 months on either side. On lower right, the linear slope for a set of global heating rates (W/m2) is given.
only ecmwf fun is at 192hrs. we'll see

Quoting Naga5000:


The problem is the "debate" is actually a false one. It is completely constructed with no basis in reality. In the science community, the debate simply does not exist. You are right about the hype now, and that is totally the media's fault. Why give a public forum to those who deny the science and try to debunk it with bad math and unfounded correlations? Because the debate sells, it keeps people divided and talking, and turns it into an us vs. them issue. I find the whole thing to be rather sad.


I believe 'the debate is over' regarding whether our climate is changing. By these definitions, see Link, I accept that 'the climate has been warming' as a 'fact'. Dr. Masters has convinced me, by providing study after study based on scientific observations, that it is occurring.

I also accept as 'fact' that the Earth has warmed and cooled before.

It is less sure, really bordering on 'Hypothesis' what is causing Climate Change, what the remedies are, and how successful we could be.

That's why I am focused more on preparing our descendants for the results.
Quoting DFWdad:


I believe 'the debate is over' regarding whether our climate is changing. By these definitions, see Link, I accept that 'the climate has been warming' as a 'fact'. Dr. Masters has convinced me, by providing study after study based on scientific observations, that it is occurring.

I also accept as 'fact' that the Earth has warmed and cooled before.

It is less sure, really bordering on 'Hypothesis' what is causing Climate Change, what the remedies are, and how successful we could be.

That's why I am focused more on preparing our descendants for the results.


The Earth has indeed warmed and cooled before, but not at the rate we are seeing now. That's one large difference.
Quoting VR46L:



ehh??

Igor retired ??

Why??


Igor was the worst tropical cyclone to impact Newfoundland on record.
Now that is a very interesting point Sky just brought up...
the depth of water temperature is different from the surface than at 500', 1000' or 2000' with respects to La nina or el nino. Also the extend of coverage plays a role determining the strength of it.
Quoting DFWdad:
It is less sure, really bordering on 'Hypothesis' what is causing Climate Change

No. Maybe 20-30 years ago, but not today. I think you might want to review what the term "hypothesis" means to scientists.
Quoting txjac:


I agree but it needs to be explained in better terms. I've attempted to wade through some articles but sometimes unless you are a scientist its not easy. Spend a lot of time looking up words or reserching and wind up getting frustrated.


Edit ...just thought there should be a "climate change for dummies" book ...went to google and there is! Guess I'll start with these


txjac

I am not a scientist and it has been over 40 years since I have taken any science related classes. I have ventured into other areas of self study and I have found, no matter the subject, the key to understanding what you are trying to learn is to first learn the terminology associated with the subject. Sailing, for example, uses a lot of terminology that is pretty specific to sailing. Without understanding the terminology associated with sailing you will spend a great deal of time trying to have conversations that they either do not know what you are trying to say or you cannot understand what they are telling you. Should you not understand the difference between port and starboard then you can spend a great deal of time stranded on a sandbar. However, once you have learned the terminology, you can easily join in conversations and understand what is being said. Knowing the terminology is key to being able to understand the conversation and to learn from it. This, at least, has always been my experience.
more snow!!
521.

I don't care at all for this language:

"Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years"

When every official dataset shows a dramatic slowing of the increase in atmospheric global temperature during the last 15 years, to say that the claim of a short-term deceleration in warming is a myth? Such obvious contempt hardly makes the authors sound professional. The paper suggests they themselves have only just discovered "where the heat went." Thus, maybe they shouldn't be criticizing others for not finding it first?

That aside, if the paper's data is sound, it's a great illustration of how the ocean modulates the atmosphere's heat content and can "hide" heat deep down, thereby affecting the climate.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Now that is a very interesting point Sky just brought up...
the depth of water temperature is different from the surface than at 500', 1000' or 2000' with respects to La nina or el nino. Also the extend of coverage plays a role determining the strength of it.


We learn new things about weather every day.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

A good start would be for our elected leaders to actually pay attention to what polls say of the majority of U.S. citizens. Heck, even having congressional representation match closely to vote totals would be a nice start...
Well, there is an underlying problem there. Namely, the gap between those who think global warming is an issue and those who think global warming is a far more pressing issue than others in the political agenda such as jobs, entitlements and spending.

And it tracks similar to the conflicts many taxpayers have about spending. They want spending reduced as long as their pet programs are not impacted. Which means political support for effective spending reduction is neutered.

Likewise, many people will be fine with little baby steps on carbon emissions but will recoil at any demand that they make significant lifestyle changes - or bear significant costs - to reduce their carbon footprint.

It basically is not a serious age on many, many levels. If voters can ignore the oncoming fiscal train wreck that is the Medicare/Social Security funding gap, it's not too hard to ignore the alarms about something as abstract to them as global warming.
Feels like summer in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands.

.CLIMATE...SO FAR THE MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES TODAY
HAS TIED THE DAILY RECORD SET AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT SAN
JUAN/P.R. IN 1984.
Quoting Levi32:
521.

I don't care at all for this language:

"Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years"

When every official dataset shows a dramatic slowing of the increase in atmospheric global temperature during the last 15 years, to say that the claim of a short-term deceleration in warming is a myth? Such obvious contempt hardly makes the authors sound professional. The paper suggests they themselves have only just discovered "where the heat went." Thus, maybe they shouldn't be criticizing others for not finding it first?

That aside, if the paper's data is sound, it's a great illustration of how the ocean modulates the atmosphere's heat content and can "hide" heat deep down, thereby modulating the climate.



Nor is it professional to make a claim that 15 years qualifies as statistically significant for a non-normal distribution, which is what many have tried to proclaim. All this study does is shows that air temperature isn't the only measurement of a warming world and that Ocean Heat Content also needs to be considered before making any claims about a slow down in warming. The paper itself is, of course, lacking the aggressive language.
Quoting Levi32:
521.
I don't care at all for this language:

"Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years"

When every official dataset shows a dramatic slowing of the increase in atmospheric global temperature during the last 15 years, to say that the claim of a short-term deceleration in warming is a myth? Such obvious contempt hardly makes the authors sound professional.


Global warming is the accumulation of heat in the climate system. The climate system includes more than just the atmosphere - it also includes the cyrosphere and the oceans. The oceans and cryosphere hold more heat than the lower atmosphere ,which is measured the most and is the source of most temperature data used to illustrate global warming. If the lower troposphere slows in its rate of warming but the cryosphere and the oceans increase in their rate of warming (which has been observed), then the heat energy of the climate system will have accelerated in it's upward trend. As someone who studies an area of meteorology so closely tied to the oceans, I'm actually quite surprised by your comment. It is also worth noting that I believe you are commenting on a statement made by the report on the journal article, instead of the article itself.

Climate scientists have known for several years now that the earth was still accumulating heat. It was also shown that when natural factors that show apparent cooling and warming on near-surface temperature trends were removed, the warming trend was still there, and had not changed. So yes, it was a myth that global warming had "slowed" or "stopped."
Quoting Naga5000:


All this study does is shows that air temperature isn't the only measurement of a warming world and that Ocean Heat Content also needs to be considered before making any claims about a slow down in warming.

Actually, it isn't the paper that does that - scientists have already known that the lower troposphere is not the only reservoir of heat energy in the climate system. This paper just illustrated that known fact much more clearly, and added something quantitative.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Actually, it isn't the paper that does that - scientists have already known that the lower troposphere is not the only reservoir of heat energy in the climate system. This paper just illustrated that known fact much more clearly, and added something quantitative.


Sorry, I should have said, "the article" instead of "the study". My mistake.
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 11:49 AM PDT on March 26, 2013
Haze
69 °F
Haze
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 52 °F
Wind: 3 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Falling)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Pollen: 9.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

Forecast is 76. Airport is 68F, 68.8 here.....
Fugate: Plan now for flood insurance rate hikes

Excerpt:

Craig Fugate says some people now paying hundreds of dollars a year could wind up paying thousands of dollars a year. That's because Congress has ordered the program to pay for itself.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
...it's not too hard to ignore the alarms about something as abstract to them as global warming.
The disappearance of Arctic sea ice is not abstract. Neither are deep, blistering heat waves and droughts. Neither are massive floods, disappearing species, desertification of agricultural lands, ocean acidification, and so on. The tens of billions of dollars in damage and thousands of deaths caused by the growing number and ferocity of warming-enhanced extreme weather events over the past few decades are very real and very tangible, and are thus becoming increasingly impossible to ignore. In fact, doing so requires quite a bit of stubbornness and effort, coupled with an abiding ideological blindness.

Some speak as though an either/or proposition is being offered, a six-of-one-half-dozen-of-the-other balance: either we deal with climate change, or we concentrate on jobs. I contend that's a severely faulty equivalence; I contend that if we don't recognize that climate change is our most pressing issue and start dealing with it as such, we'll have problems far, far worse than jobs, spending, or entitlement reform. And more importantly, a growing number of scientists are making that same contention.
Quoting DFWdad:


No, they are just hedging there bets, and waiting for someone else to jump in first so they don't look silly.

Are we sure enough about sea-level increase, due to Climate Change,:
* To put signs on the coast warning residents of how high the sea at a future specified time?
* To require disclosures on coastal property transactions warning of future sea-levels?
* that insurance companies started putting 'sea-level change' riders/adjustments on their policies?

I think the debate feels like Hype right now because:
* It is a sure bet right now to get good ratings on your TV program/channel, magazine, web-site, if you harp on this topic, and the more dire results the better. (everyone loves a train-wreck?)
* It is probably easy money to get funding grants to try to analyze this event, predict the future, and find ways to prevent. (We need to do this, but at some point, when we are sure enough, we need to divert some of this money to preparing for the dire results.)

It seems like we are not at the point yet where the money-trail points beyond hype.



Hedging their bets? In what sense? And what makes you think that they do not already look silly?

"Are we sure enough about sea-level increase, due to Climate Change,"

Yes, but this is not hedging their bets. This is their betting that they will either be out of office or dead before the worst is to come. This is a fairly safe bet, considering the age of many of our elected officials. The sea level will not rise by 3' before the end of this decade.

"I think the debate feels like Hype right now because:"

Hype? TV ratings? When people are trying to tell that that there is an out of control train heading down the tracks that you are standing on, do you simply reply back to them, "That is a lot of hype! I do not even see a train! I only see the tracks that I am on and these tracks have always been here. I am staying put right where I am! Now go away! You are bothering me!". ... Ignorance may be bliss, but why do so many seem to consider it to be a virtue?
Quoting ScottLincoln:

No. Maybe 20-30 years ago, but not today. I think you might want to review what the term "hypothesis" means to scientists.


links?

Here is one, The Discovery of Global Warming

"Since 2001, greatly improved computer models and an abundance of data of many kinds strengthened the conclusion that human emissions are very likely to cause serious climate change." Ah, if I am generous on the definition of fact, you were off by 8-18 years...

"In 2007 the IPCC reported that scientists were more confident than ever that humans were changing the climate. Although only a small fraction of the predicted warming had happened so far..." Now a fact?

My 18-year child likes to remind us that in Science there are no 'facts' as we like to think of them. In other words, a truth that is unchangeable. That is where you cross over in to belief.

From the other link,
Fact: In science, an observation that has been repeatedly confirmed and for all practical purposes is accepted as “true.” Truth in science, however, is never final and what is accepted as a fact today may be modified or even discarded tomorrow.

That as good as it gets.

To clarify my earlier comments....
* Earth is warming, fact
* That man is contributing to climate change?, less fact, but yeah the theories and models line up, fact
* That it we know how to reverse it? Ummm...have not see it demonstrated yet, I am going with Hypothesis
* Exactly was the results will be? The models are all over the place, a bunch of hypotheses.



Quoting Levi32:
521.

I don't care at all for this language:

"Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years"

When every official dataset shows a dramatic slowing of the increase in atmospheric global temperature during the last 15 years, to say that the claim of a short-term deceleration in warming is a myth? Such obvious contempt hardly makes the authors sound professional. The paper suggests they themselves have only just discovered "where the heat went." Thus, maybe they shouldn't be criticizing others for not finding it first?

That aside, if the paper's data is sound, it's a great illustration of how the ocean modulates the atmosphere's heat content and can "hide" heat deep down, thereby affecting the climate.


The atmosphere is but one aspect of our globe. When the oceans are still warming while the atmosphere has warmed less during the same time interval, is this not still a global warming? "When you take away our oceans, what do have? Very little global warming". Is this a scientific approach to understanding global climate?



Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Fugate: Plan now for flood insurance rate hikes

Excerpt:

Craig Fugate says some people now paying hundreds of dollars a year could wind up paying thousands of dollars a year. That's because Congress has ordered the program to pay for itself.


Thanks for the link. Apparently this is based on what has already happened, and the National Flood Insurance program is not paying for itself now. I wonder corporate insurance companies will start reflecting GW predictions?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Fugate: Plan now for flood insurance rate hikes

Excerpt:

Craig Fugate says some people now paying hundreds of dollars a year could wind up paying thousands of dollars a year. That's because Congress has ordered the program to pay for itself.


They have to.

Given the insane amounts of damage that last several big storms have done, it is not prudent for the government to keep forking out money to pay for the rebuilding of homes and businesses in the area, and it is not prudent for people who live in areas of lower risk to keep paying for the people who live in areas of obscenely high risk.


This would be a good first step towards laws for "build at your own risk" zones in the most obscenely risky areas (i.e. barrier islands and below-sea level cities).
Quoting LargoFl:
listen folks..all this talk aout climate change and what can we do about it....remember back..when science was messing around with atoms..what happened?...Hirosima BOOM......what do you THINK..will happen when Man finds out HOW to control weather?....YOU trust them i surely do NOT
actually, Largo, I am right with you on this one. Geo-engineering schemes make me VERY nervous. But there's a lot that can be one before we go to that extreme.
Accuweather is really getting messed up now: their headlines are contradicting.

Midwest, Northeast to Endure Cold Waves Into April

March 26, 2013

In some cases, spring could be six to eight weeks behind last year's amazing pace.


Alarms Raised for Midwest, New England Spring Floods

March 26, 2013

Meteorologists warn that rapid spring warmth may cause intense flooding for some regions.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hedging their bets? In what sense? And what makes you think that they do not already look silly?

"Are we sure enough about sea-level increase, due to Climate Change,"

Yes, but this is not hedging their bets. This is their betting that they will either be out of office or dead before the worst is to come. This is a fairly safe bet, considering the age of many of our elected officials. The sea level will not rise by 3' before the end of this decade.



Agreed
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The atmosphere is but one aspect of our globe. When the oceans are still warming while the atmosphere has warmed less during the same time interval, is this not still a global warming? "When you take away our oceans, what do have? Very little global warming". Is this a scientific approach to understanding global climate?





Actually, the visual appearance of graphs showing tropospheric global temperature 'flatlining' over the past decade is deceptive. Here's the decadal global average temperature from NASA, with respect to the 1951-80 average.

1981-90 +0.20C
1991-00 +0.32C
2001-10 +0.55C
Quoting DFWdad:


links?

Here is one, The Discovery of Global Warming

"Since 2001, greatly improved computer models and an abundance of data of many kinds strengthened the conclusion that human emissions are very likely to cause serious climate change." Ah, if I am generous on the definition of fact, you were off by 8-18 years...

"In 2007 the IPCC reported that scientists were more confident than ever that humans were changing the climate. Although only a small fraction of the predicted warming had happened so far..." Now a fact?

My 18-year child likes to remind us that in Science there are no 'facts' as we like to think of them. In other words, a truth that is unchangeable. That is where you cross over in to belief.

From the other link,
Fact: In science, an observation that has been repeatedly confirmed and for all practical purposes is accepted as %u201Ctrue.%u201D Truth in science, however, is never final and what is accepted as a fact today may be modified or even discarded tomorrow.

That as good as it gets.

To clarify my earlier comments....
* Earth is warming, fact
* That man is contributing to climate change?, less fact, but yeah the theories and models line up, fact
* That it we know how to reverse it? Ummm...have not see it demonstrated yet, I am going with Hypothesis
* Exactly was the results will be? The models are all over the place, a bunch of hypotheses.



Since you've quoted from Weart's excellent climate change primer, you won't mind if I do the same:

"My training as a physicist and historian of science has given me some feeling for where scientific claims are reliable and where they are shaky. Of course climate science is full of uncertainties, and nobody claims to know exactly what the climate will do. That very uncertainty is part of what, I am confident, is known beyond doubt %u2014 our planet's climate can change, tremendously and unpredictably. Beyond that we can conclude (with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 2007 report) that it is very likely that significant global warming is coming in our lifetimes. This surely brings a likelihood of harm, widespread and grave (see this summary of expected impacts). The few who contest these facts are either ignorant, or so committed to their viewpoint that they will seize on any excuse to deny the danger."

"Like many threats, global warming calls for increased government activity, and that rightly worries people. But in the twenty-first century, in many areas the alternative to government action is not individual liberty; it is corporate power. And the role of large corporations in this story has been mostly negative, a tale of self-interested obfuscation and short-sighted delay. The atmosphere is a classic case of a "commons": in the old shared English meadow, any given individual was bound to gain by adding more of his own cows, although everyone lost from the overgrazing. In such cases the public interest can only be protected by public rules."

"It is now very nearly certain that global warming is upon us. It is prudent to expect that weather patterns will continue to change and the seas will continue to rise, in an ever worsening pattern, through our lifetimes and on into our grandchildren's. The question has graduated from the scientific community: climate change is a major social, economic and political issue. Nearly everyone in the world will need to adjust. Citizens will need reliable information, the flexibility to change their personal lives, and efficient and appropriate help from all levels of government. So it is an important job, in some ways our top priority, to improve the communication of knowledge, and to strengthen democratic control in governance everywhere. The spirit of fact-gathering, rational discussion, toleration of dissent, and negotiation of an evolving consensus, which has characterized the climate science community, can serve well as a model."

And, no, the models are not, as you claim, "all over the place". Sure, some call for faster and greater warming, while others call for slower and lesser warming. But it's important to keep in mind that even the latter ones point to a world rapidly changing in profound ways.
Quoting FLwolverine:
actually, Largo, I am right with you on this one. Geo-engineering schemes are me VERY nervous. But there's a lot that can be one before we go to that extreme.
thanks, here is my fear..one day some nation..doesnt Have to be the USA..but some nation will somehow find the way..to control weather and storms..ok, lets say the natibn is a peaceful one, doing the research to Help mankind..you and I know..some other nation or nations will Steal that info and use it as a weapon.....hello science...leave the weather ALONE..please
In Orlando, Fla., they are 4.4 degrees F below their normal temperature for the month of March as of today.
Global cooling is here!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
found this next week
maybe MCS squall line sinking south into TN/MS/AL/GA
possibly iso tornadoes.













That is quite the cold front....!
Quoting NJWXMAN:
In Orlando, Fla., they are 4.4 degrees F below their normal temperature for the month of March as of today.
Global cooling is here!


what?

Welcome to the blog btw...
would be Great if this Wind died down ...................geez its cold.
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks, here is my fear..one day some nation..doesnt Have to be the USA..but some nation will somehow find the way..to control weather and storms..ok, lets say the natibn is a peaceful one, doing the research to Help mankind..you and I know..some other nation or nations will Steal that info and use it as a weapon.....hello science...leave the weather ALONE..please
and before anyone gets on Largo's case, remember we're talking about geo-engineering here, not about ignoring climate change!
12Z GFS is looking frisky next Tuesday & Wednesday for FL. Heavy rains and severe weather is this pans out.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
12Z GFS is looking frisky next Tuesday & Wednesday for FL. Heavy rains and severe weather is this pans out.

yes NWS is kinda watching this weekend for rains..we'll see what happens..we could use more rain around my area..the whole state is on fire watch
Quoting Thrawst:
So unusual... me no likey.




Get used to it as most of the severe weather is progged to hug the Gulf Coast atleast the first 2 weeks or so of April.

[Insert four letter word here] that [Insert a second four letter word here].

549

Agree with the predictions in the linked article, except for:

Most regions now subject to droughts will probably get drier (because of warmth as well as less precipitation), and most wet regions will get wetter.

This will probably be true for some regions, but I'd expect dry regions to get more rain and wet regions to get less as global atmospheric pressure regimes change.

During the 'Holocene Climatic Optimum', which followed the last ice age, global temperatures were higher than today, and cave art from what is now the Sahara desert depict rivers, hippos, crocodiles and grasslands.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes NWS is kinda watching this weekend for rains..we'll see what happens..we could use more rain around my area..the whole state is on fire watch


Let us know if TX has decent rain chances for next week
This time lest last year snow cover!
Link
GFS brings us rain Mon,not the weekend..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
[Insert four letter word here] that [Insert a second four letter word here].



Yup, a BIG cold snap is progged by the GFS to encompass the whole eastern half of the US.

By the way NOAA is forecasting HUGE drought relief for FL.

6-10 days


8 to 14 days
yes Rita , next Tuesday...............
Quoting Levi32:
521.

I don't care at all for this language:

"Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years"

And I don't care for that language based upon the fact that the data for the last 15 years cannot rule out that the trend of the prior 15 is continuing exactly as before.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Let us know if TX has decent rain chances for next week


I've been saying all day TX to FL will be wet next week. Any severe weather will hug the Gulf Coast. Storm Chasers in Tornado Alley are probably like what the HECK.

Quoting help4u:
NOthing new under the sun.Man will not and cannot control weather.God is in control and alaways has been!His son came and died for our sins,look to him for answers do not worship the gods of global warming.


Unfortunately, The Bible says the Earth and the Heavens are going to burn up, and the elements will melt, and etc.

God is the God of Global Warming and Global Cooling, and everything else too.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
[Insert four letter word here] that [Insert a second four letter word here].



"re ported"

Today has been amazing for me loving the rain even though all that tourist that come would be angry that they didn`t went swimming. I need to say though that my city is easily flood just 3 hours of rain and see the photosLink Sorry is in spanish.
Quoting help4u:
NOthing new under the sun.Man will not and cannot control weather.God is in control and alaways has been!His son came and died for our sins,look to him for answers do not worship the gods of global warming.


Just so, so wrong on so many levels. Man's problem is man. Man is in control and man has messed up. Today I was in the HOV (car pool) lane watching the 5 lanes of crawling bumper to bumper traffic for a solid 15 miles. 99.99999 with just one occupant(ok, I saw one car with two people in it). There's your trouble.
I have to say the NOAA precip & temperature maps are resembling that of an El-Nino pattern. Going to be interesting to see if warming continues across the enso regions.

Looks like a nice fire going on in Perry County, Mississippi today. Glad the wind isn't coming from the southeast today.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I have to say the NOAA precip & temperature maps are resembling that of an El-Nino pattern. Going to be interesting to see if warming continues across the enso regions.


Sea surface temperatures above the threshold needed for an El Nino take months to alter the USA weather pattern. Even if the recent warming was a sign of an upcoming El Nino, the effects wouldn't be felt until nearly the start of summer.
Quoting allancalderini:
Today has been amazing for me loving the rain even though all that tourist that come would be angry that they didn`t went swimming. I need to say though that my city is easily flood just 3 hours of rain and see the photosLink Sorry is in spanish.


Wow, what a mess.

Google "Translate" handled the web site pretty well, no worries.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes Rita , next Tuesday...............

-_- really... (as in snow for me again)
Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, The Bible says the Earth and the Heavens are going to burn up, and the elements will melt, and etc.

God is the God of Global Warming and Global Cooling, and everything else too.
then theres no point in looking both ways before crossing a street
Quoting Neapolitan:
The disappearance of Arctic sea ice is not abstract. Neither are deep, blistering heat waves and droughts. Neither are massive floods, disappearing species, desertification of agricultural lands, ocean acidification, and so on.
To the average person, those are very abstract concepts. They don't see arctic sea ice. If it is hot in the summer, they just crank up the A/C a bit. If there is a drought in Nebraska and they are in Ohio, oh, well.

They do see the price of gas going up, the price of their home going down, the escalating cost of sending their kids to college, and the chances of a retirement like their parents' receeding into the mists.

And what dominates the 'news' they watch? High-profile murder cases, what the Kardashians are up to, stupid political talking heads talking out of the sides of their mouths, celebrity weddings and divorces, and highlights from Dancing with the Stars.

And politicians are well aware of this. And they overpromise and under-deliver as a result, as they have done for decades.

Quoting allancalderini:
Today has been amazing for me loving the rain even though all that tourist that come would be angry that they didn`t went swimming. I need to say though that my city is easily flood just 3 hours of rain and see the photosLink Sorry is in spanish.


3 horas?, ya si fuera un dia entero como suele ser en Centroamerica en la epoca lluviosa?
que bueno que estas bien...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sea surface temperatures above the threshold needed for an El Nino take months to alter the USA weather pattern. Even if the recent warming was a sign of an upcoming El Nino, the effects wouldn't be felt until nearly the start of summer.


SOI values definitely don't reflect El Nino...or anything, really.
Quoting floridaT:
then theres no point in looking both ways before crossing a street


no fate but what one makes for themselves
Quoting MississippiWx:


SOI values definitely don't reflect El Nino...or anything, really.


I said resembled. An active southern branch may kill this years Tornado Season as the Southern Jet seems to wanna stay south. TX to FL could be in for a really wet Spring.
GFS for Monday.......rain chances good............
Quoting RitaEvac:


Let us know if TX has decent rain chances for next week


Houston area will see beneficial rains early next week it appears. I'm worried though about the Cap that's been in place lately across SE TX as that Cap has killed what could have been some soaking fronts moving by for you guys. Hopefully next week it finally breaks!
Quoting MississippiWx:


SOI values definitely don't reflect El Nino...or anything, really.

What? The SOI is one of the ways to approximate La Nina/El Nino conditions in an index, and is considered one of the indeces that actually attempts to measure the meteorological changes associated with the underlying SST changes.


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/ind icators/soi.php


Note: it appears that I misunderstood the wording of the original comment, and was corrected on this in a later post.
Quoting yonzabam:
549

Agree with the predictions in the linked article, except for:

Most regions now subject to droughts will probably get drier (because of warmth as well as less precipitation), and most wet regions will get wetter.

This will probably be true for some regions, but I'd expect dry regions to get more rain and wet regions to get less as global atmospheric pressure regimes change.

During the 'Holocene Climatic Optimum', which followed the last ice age, global temperatures were higher than today, and cave art from what is now the Sahara desert depict rivers, hippos, crocodiles and grasslands.


The general projection is wet will get wetter, dry will get drier.

From NCAR
Climate change: Drought may threaten much of globe within decades
BOULDER—The United States and many other heavily populated countries face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, according to a new study by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai. The detailed analysis concludes that warming temperatures associated with climate change will likely create increasingly dry soil conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years, possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely if ever been observed in modern times.



MAPS OF PROJECTED DROUGHT
the arctic sea ice cover will tell us all this September and I believe remove any doubts that are left.
8-10 day mean from the GFS and ECMWF

well just a morning or two then we warm up again.....
Quoting JohnLonergan:


The general projection is wet will get wetter, dry will get drier.

From NCAR
Climate change: Drought may threaten much of globe within decades
BOULDER—The United States and many other heavily populated countries face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, according to a new study by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai. The detailed analysis concludes that warming temperatures associated with climate change will likely create increasingly dry soil conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years, possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely if ever been observed in modern times.



MAPS OF PROJECTED DROUGHT


That prediction is that drought will become more widespread, which I agree with.

It doesn't predict 'wet will get wetter, and dry will get drier'.
Quoting floridaT:
the arctic sea ice cover will tell us all this September and I believe remove any doubts that are left.


the arctic is lost
iam more concearned with greenland
thats gonna be the kick in the sack
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


no fate but what one makes for themselves
when hurricane season starts you really need to bring back the moving metal head
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


the arctic is lost
iam more concearned with greenland
thats gonna be the kick in the sack
and the bermuda high "parking" further north
i will have to chaeck see if i still got that one
Quoting floridaT:
the arctic sea ice cover will tell us all this September and I believe remove any doubts that are left.
For most thinking people, perhaps. But there exists in this nation a large group of those who will refuse to acknowledge reality no matter how overwhelming the evidence. Either because of corporate fealty, political ideology, religious dogma, innate stubbornness, or willful ignorance, these folks would still insist that the earth was flat even if they could see its roundness from space with their own two eyes..

The really sad part is, many of them have been elected to public office, and now set policy in the U.S. House of Representatives... :\
very weak very much south

gee i bet Europe wants this winter the END too huh....
Quoting ScottLincoln:

What? The SOI is one of the ways to approximate La Nina/El Nino conditions in an index, and is considered one of the indeces that actually attempts to measure the meteorological changes associated with the underlying SST changes.


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/ind icators/soi.php

I think he meant current SOI values don't support an El Nino nor La Nina. Which they don't.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
very weak very much south

what im talking about is more frequent and longer highs over Iceland in the fall steering more Sandy type storms
Quoting RitaEvac:


Let us know if TX has decent rain chances for next week
Next Tuesday is best chance. The models like some have shown indicate this. The local NWS even mentioned it.
The 30 day SOI continues in positive territory and that means El Nino is not comming anytime soon.

607. txjac
What affect/influence could be seen if NK decides to drop a few nukes? What impact would that have on CO2 numbers?
I'm asking about other impacts beside the radiation.
For those who thought winter was over for sure now, don't be so sure... GFS on April 2nd shows possible snow. Not too much really, but for anyone tired of the white stuff it may be a nuisance:

Link

Accompanying temps, much of the US is in the 30's and even 20's:

Link

Storm itself:

Link

Link

Seems to be more of a frontal system. Will definitely be interesting to see how it develops.
Quoting floridaT:
then theres no point in looking both ways before crossing a street


I think you're missing the point. And to answer both your intended, and hidden meaning (whether or not you meant it)...

Proverbs 14:15
The simple believeth every word: but the prudent man looketh well to his going.

or maybe

Proverbs 22:3
A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.

I certainly think looking both ways before crossing the street is a wise thing to do.

and

Matthew 4:7
Jesus said unto him, It is written again, Thou shalt not tempt the Lord thy God.



Anyway, my post was in response to Help4you who seems to be, or pretends to be, associating Global Warming with a false religion, as in something opposed to God, as though he thinks God would allow no such thing. My post was simply to show that isn't the case, according to the Bible anyway.
NWS Wilmington, NC:

"THE NEXT FRONT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE
EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT WAVE IS
QUITE COLD BUT THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE REGARDING
ITS SOUTHWARD PENETRATION. AT A MINIMUM THE LONG TERM ENDS WITH
BELOW CLIMO TEMPS AS IT STARTED...AT WORST WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF
LARGE DEVIATIONS TOWARDS COLD AS WITH RECENT AIRMASS. THIS COLD IS
GETTING OLD-AN OF INCREASING CONCERN TO LOCAL AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.
"
Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
Remember when WeatherUnderground was filled with talk of hurricane season and people would recount their experiences or track storms?

Err...you mean like it has almost everyday around here? Read back some.

Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
This "Talk" of climate change, religion, and politics have led many people away from this site...

Not at all. I hardly ever see comments stating a blogger is leaving because he/she is tired of these type of comments. The main issue was the lack of administration, which has long since been resolved.

Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
We demand a tropical only weather blog.

No, we don't; you may though. Climate change is an issue I think everybody should be informed about, and obviously Dr. Masters does as well.

Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
Email Admin, let them know you are tired of the arguing, of the constant arguing, the continued tirade of endless bickering.

Since when was debating and sharing opinions on the blog considered "bickering"?

Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
We wont be silence anymore.

Actually, you really don't have a choice. This is Dr. Masters' blog, where he is able to speak about anything and everything he wants to. If you don't like it, you're free to go to another blog, forum, and/or site that focuses solely on tropical weather. A majority of the population here has no problem with his blogs.
"Remember when WeatherUnderground was filled with talk of hurricane season and people would recount their experiences or track storms? This "Talk" of climate change, religion, and politics have led many people away from this site and we know it will spill into the upcoming hurricane season but We the People intend to bring back the old days with help of those who lurk. This blog is famous behind tropical weather discussion not the current posts and posters we see of lately. We demand a tropical only weather blog. As the old timers supposedly complain about the trolling, We the people are complaining about what the tropical weather blog has come to. Email Admin, let them know you are tired of the arguing, of the constant arguing, the continued tirade of endless bickering. We wont be silence anymore. Reclaim THE BLOG

Stay tuned for a Petition! Signatures Count, Our Voice Will Be Heard!"
------------------

COOL story, Bro.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
[Insert four letter word here] that [Insert a second four letter word here].




yeah winter is a ______(insert your own word)
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Global warming is the accumulation of heat in the climate system. The climate system includes more than just the atmosphere - it also includes the cyrosphere and the oceans. The oceans and cryosphere hold more heat than the lower atmosphere ,which is measured the most and is the source of most temperature data used to illustrate global warming. If the lower troposphere slows in its rate of warming but the cryosphere and the oceans increase in their rate of warming (which has been observed), then the heat energy of the climate system will have accelerated in it's upward trend. As someone who studies an area of meteorology so closely tied to the oceans, I'm actually quite surprised by your comment. It is also worth noting that I believe you are commenting on a statement made by the report on the journal article, instead of the article itself.

Climate scientists have known for several years now that the earth was still accumulating heat. It was also shown that when natural factors that show apparent cooling and warming on near-surface temperature trends were removed, the warming trend was still there, and had not changed. So yes, it was a myth that global warming had "slowed" or "stopped."
Actually, it isn't the paper that does that - scientists have already known that the lower troposphere is not the only reservoir of heat energy in the climate system. This paper just illustrated that known fact much more clearly, and added something quantitative.


The number of incorrect assumptions about my thought process that you derived from my comment is staggering.

@612

Well said tx13
617. txjac
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



yeah winter is a ______(insert your own word)


I feel for those that are tired of the cold, snow and bluster of winter ..me, living here in Houston it's a blessing. I am totally happy with the temps of this week as it is awesome ...I can actually see stars at night its so clear. I'm not ready for the summer months where I feel like I'm melting
Quoting txjac:
What affect/influence could be seen if NK decides to drop a few nukes? What impact would that have on CO2 numbers?
I'm asking about other impacts beside the radiation.


The largest bomb NK has dropped has been a 4Kt. Russia tested a 500Mt during the Cold War. That is 4,000 tons vs 500,000,000. NK would have to drop another 125,000 of its largest test to equal the magnitude of the one Russian test. Look up Tsar Bomba.
619. txjac
Quoting wilsongti45:


The largest bomb NK has dropped has been a 4Kt. Russia tested a 500Mt during the Cold War. That is 4,000 tons vs 500,000,000. NK would have to drop another 125,000 of its largest test to equal the magnitude of the one Russian test. Look up Tsar Bomba.


Wow! Thanks for the info
COLD COLD COLD in Floridayyy today......50s baby
Quoting Naga5000:


Nor is it professional to make a claim that 15 years qualifies as statistically significant for a non-normal distribution, which is what many have tried to proclaim. All this study does is shows that air temperature isn't the only measurement of a warming world and that Ocean Heat Content also needs to be considered before making any claims about a slow down in warming. The paper itself is, of course, lacking the aggressive language.


That's not what State of the Climate in 2008 says regarding global atmospheric temperature.

"The simulations rule out (at the
95% level) zero trends for intervals
of 15 yr or more, suggesting that
an observed absence of warming of
this duration is needed to create
a discrepancy with the expected
present-day warming rate."


Link (p. 23 for quote)

I'm also amazed by how many assumptions are being made based on my comment. Nowhere did I say the climate does not encompass the ocean as well as the atmosphere. Nowhere did I deny that the total heat content of the Earth system seems to be increasing.

All I said was that it is interesting to notice the recent trends in atmospheric temperature (and calling those trends a myth is ridiculous), while papers such as the one I referred to are noting an increase in deep ocean heat content.

I notice so-called "deniers" getting accused of making assumptions and jumping to wild conclusions about people based on little information. It seems some of you on the other side are just as jumpy...
Quoting Levi32:


The number of incorrect assumptions about my thought process that you derived from my comment is staggering.
Levi do you see a higher chance for trouble here in the antilles from a TC this year?

For post #609:

When things heat up in the North Atlantic you will see this blog hopping about tropical weather with the model wars, is moving west, shear is high,look at that blob,Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa etc,etc,etc,etc,etc,etc ..............
actually it would be great if DOC made a gulf coast only blog as well..if you look at the posters here, maybe 50% come from gulf coast states?..the gulf coast states get more weather than just hurricanes, like this COLD we are having now huh
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
For post #609:

When things heat up in the North Atlantic you will see this blog hopping about tropical weather with the model wars, is moving west, shear is high,look at that blob,Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa etc,etc,etc,etc,etc,etc ..............
Love it all!
Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
Remember when WeatherUnderground was filled with talk of hurricane season and people would recount their experiences or track storms? This "Talk" of climate change, religion, and politics have led many people away from this site and we know it will spill into the upcoming hurricane season but We the People intend to bring back the old days with help of those who lurk. This blog is famous behind tropical weather discussion not the current posts and posters we see of lately. We demand a tropical only weather blog. As the old timers supposedly complain about the trolling, We the people are complaining about what the tropical weather blog has come to. Email Admin, let them know you are tired of the arguing, of the constant arguing, the continued tirade of endless bickering. We wont be silence anymore. Reclaim THE BLOG

Stay tuned for a Petition! Signatures Count, Our Voice Will Be Heard!

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook
Issuance will resume on June 1st or as necessary. Tropical Weather Discussion
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

Eastern Pacific (out to 140�W)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Issuance will resume on May 15th or as necessary. Tropical Weather Discussion
1605 UTC TUE MAR 26 2013
JM does a good job trying to keep politics out of global warming but we still have skeptics based on junk science or paid carbon lobbyist trying to muddy the waters for personal gain. I hope you’re not suggesting Jeff stop posting important global warming information.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
For post #609:

When things heat up in the North Atlantic you will see this blog hopping about tropical weather with the model wars, is moving west, shear is high,look at that blob,Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa etc,etc,etc,etc,etc,etc ..............


"Rocket Fuel!"
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-271400-
/O.CON.KTBW.FZ.W.0008.130327T0800Z-130327T1400Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS
358 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO...AND PASCO COUNTIES...

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 27 AND 32 OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...AND BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.

&&

$$
Freeze warnings for west central FL tonight in LATE MARCH!!!! Unbelievable....
Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
Remember when WeatherUnderground was filled with talk of hurricane season and people would recount their experiences or track storms? This "Talk" of climate change, religion, and politics have led many people away from this site and we know it will spill into the upcoming hurricane season but We the People intend to bring back the old days with help of those who lurk. This blog is famous behind tropical weather discussion not the current posts and posters we see of lately. We demand a tropical only weather blog. As the old timers supposedly complain about the trolling, We the people are complaining about what the tropical weather blog has come to. Email Admin, let them know you are tired of the arguing, of the constant arguing, the continued tirade of endless bickering. We wont be silence anymore. Reclaim THE BLOG

Stay tuned for a Petition! Signatures Count, Our Voice Will Be Heard!

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook
Issuance will resume on June 1st or as necessary. Tropical Weather Discussion
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

Eastern Pacific (out to 140%uFFFDW)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Issuance will resume on May 15th or as necessary. Tropical Weather Discussion
1605 UTC TUE MAR 26 2013


WU is doing just fine
we have good convo lots of new people
a wide age range improvements in policing
we are on the right road and it will get better
for everyone not only a few
Quoting wilsongti45:


The largest bomb NK has dropped has been a 4Kt. Russia tested a 500Mt during the Cold War. That is 4,000 tons vs 500,000,000. NK would have to drop another 125,000 of its largest test to equal the magnitude of the one Russian test. Look up Tsar Bomba.


50 megatons, not 500mt.

It was designed for 100mt, but they only used half the fuel for the test, and the other half of the bomb was just lead, probably to balance it to get the weight right for the delivery system.


I'm sure Russia could, in principle, make a 500mt bomb if they wanted to, but bombs become less and less efficient weapons the larger they are, due to the laws of geometry.
Quoting Gearsts:
Levi do you see a higher chance for trouble here in the antilles from a TC this year?



Given that I think storm development is likely to focus in the more classic deep tropical development regions this year, yes I think so.
Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
Remember when WeatherUnderground was filled with talk of hurricane season and people would recount their experiences or track storms? This "Talk" of climate change, religion, and politics have led many people away from this site and we know it will spill into the upcoming hurricane season but We the People intend to bring back the old days with help of those who lurk. This blog is famous behind tropical weather discussion not the current posts and posters we see of lately. We demand a tropical only weather blog. As the old timers supposedly complain about the trolling, We the people are complaining about what the tropical weather blog has come to. Email Admin, let them know you are tired of the arguing, of the constant arguing, the continued tirade of endless bickering. We wont be silence anymore. Reclaim THE BLOG

Stay tuned for a Petition! Signatures Count, Our Voice Will Be Heard!

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook
Issuance will resume on June 1st or as necessary. Tropical Weather Discussion
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

Eastern Pacific (out to 140�W)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Issuance will resume on May 15th or as necessary. Tropical Weather Discussion
1605 UTC TUE MAR 26 2013




ZZZZZZZ.....

Btw I couldn't care less about hurricane season when it's not hurricane season.

If you want a tropical only blog, this just isn't it. As far as i know, even reading back through old blogs, Dr Masters has always commented on non tropical things.

It still is a tropical oriented blog, however, and that is the way it should be.
The way Dr Masters wants it.

It is called Dr Jeff Master's Wunderblog, not the tropical weather wunderblog, for a reason.

you mean you want your way back
Quoting RTSplayer:


50 megatons, not 500mt.

It was designed for 100mt, but they only used half the fuel for the test, and the other half of the bomb was just lead, probably to balance it to get the weight right for the delivery system.


I'm sure Russia could, in principle, make a 500mt bomb if they wanted to, but bombs become less and less efficient weapons the larger they are, due to the laws of geometry.


You are right. Error on my part. The point being that the NK bombs are tiny compared to those already tested. Cool video which shows how many nuclear weapons have been tested.

Link

Quoting Levi32:


That's not what State of the Climate in 2008 says regarding global atmospheric temperature.

"The simulations rule out (at the
95% level) zero trends for intervals
of 15 yr or more, suggesting that
an observed absence of warming of
this duration is needed to create
a discrepancy with the expected
present-day warming rate."


Link

I'm also amazed by how many assumptions are being made based on my comment. Nowhere did I say the climate does not encompass the ocean as well as the atmosphere. Nowhere did I deny that the total heat content of the Earth system seems to be increasing.

It is interesting to notice the recent trends in atmospheric temperature, while papers such as the one I referred to are noting an increase in deep ocean heat content.

I notice so-called "deniers" getting accused of making assumptions and jumping to wild conclusions about people based on little information. It seems some of you on the other side are just as jumpy...


That doesn't contradict what I said. That statement refers to an analysis of simulations based on 15 year or greater trends, not on 15 year trends themselves, which is a huge distinction. My point was many of the famous anti-climate change sites attempt to show temperature trends of less than 30 years to prove their points. That cannot be done when doing a statistical analysis on a non normal distribution (it can be, but the results wouldn't be statistically significant by definition)

I don't know if that last part was directed at me, or a generalized statement, but either way I made no assumptions or jumped to wild conclusions. Maybe I misinterpreted what you were trying to say, and if that's the case, sorry. I wasn't trying to start a battle with you.
Quoting Levi32:


Given that I think storm development is likely to focus in the more classic deep tropical development regions this year, yes I think so.


Hi Levi. Another more direct queston about location. You think that the islands in the NE Caribbean may have the most threats? (Guadaloupe NW to PR)
and besides
this is the off season
and the off season is pretty much
an open dissicussion from blizzards to cold to severe to eartquakes or solar
global warming climate change and a lot more
come jun 1 and a forming system its all tropical all the time unless if no threat to man
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 30 day SOI continues in positive territory and that means El Nino is not comming anytime soon.



El Nino, please stay away :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and besides
this is the off season
and the off season is pretty much
an open dissicussion
from blizzards to cold to severe to eartquakes or solar
global warming climate change and a lot more
come jun 1 and a forming system its all tropical all the time unless if no threat to man


anyone go and check weather.com...very important weather stuff like:

a missing virus
hand of god
weird ocean creatures
corals
deadly earthquakes

nice topics on a weather site...
just saying
Quoting CaribBoy:


El Nino, please stay away :)
CaribBoy im with you this year :D
Quoting Levi32:
"The simulations rule out (at the
95% level) zero trends for intervals
of 15 yr or more, suggesting that
an observed absence of warming of
this duration is needed to create
a discrepancy with the expected
present-day warming rate."

Zero trend is not the same as lack of statistical significance. In fact, if one does the work one finds that more than half of the time since 1995 fifteen years of temperature data fails to show statistically significant warming.

Yet here we are, warmer than we were 15 years ago.
Quoting txjac:
What affect/influence could be seen if NK decides to drop a few nukes? What impact would that have on CO2 numbers?
I'm asking about other impacts beside the radiation.



North Korea...a potential war...maybe multiple nations across the world...and YOU are worried about the climate.

I would be worried about the United States. Current federal government is not sufficient to be the force everyone fears. At all.
Quoting Birthmark:

Zero trend is not the same as lack of statistical significance. In fact, if one does the work one finds that more than half of the time since 1995 fifteen years of temperature data fails to show statistically significant warming.

Yet here we are, warmer than we were 15 years ago.


The way I read it in context, was that the simulations produced no 15 year or greater stretches of time with a zero trend within a 95% confidence level. So in order to start second guessing the overall increase in warming, we would need to see a 15 year or greater stretch with no warming. So this was not an analysis of 15 year temperature trends, only an analysis of the output results of the simulations. Two completely different animals.
Quoting Naga5000:


The way I read it in context, was that the simulations produced no 15 year or greater stretches of time with a zero trend within a 95% confidence level. So in order to start second guessing the overall increase in warming, we would need to see a 15 year or greater stretch with no warming. So this was not an analysis of 15 year temperature trends, only an analysis of the output results of the simulations. Two completely different animals.

Yep. But for most of the people here, it would be very easy to confuse the simulation with the recent denialist obsession with fifteen years. I'm trying to make it clear that those denialist claims have no validity.
Quoting Birthmark:

Zero trend is not the same as lack of statistical significance. In fact, if one does the work one finds that more than half of the time since 1995 fifteen years of temperature data fails to show statistically significant warming.

Yet here we are, warmer than we were 15 years ago.

The climate is playing creepy mouse on us!

Except for that arctic ice thing.

"I'm melting! Melting!"
Quoting Naga5000:


That doesn't contradict what I said. That statement refers to an analysis of simulations based on 15 year or greater trends, not on 15 year trends themselves, which is a huge distinction. My point was many of the famous anti-climate change sites attempt to show temperature trends of less than 30 years to prove their points. That cannot be done when doing a statistical analysis on a non normal distribution (it can be, but the results wouldn't be statistically significant by definition)

I don't know if that last part was directed at me, or a generalized statement, but either way I made no assumptions or jumped to wild conclusions. Maybe I misinterpreted what you were trying to say, and if that's the case, sorry. I wasn't trying to start a battle with you.


No, it wasn't specifically your comment that sparked that last part. My apologies.

Also, Google searches on the normal distribution subject are turning up results that state that the global and northern hemisphere land temperature distributions are fairly close to the normal distribution. I am not well-versed in the statistical analysis of our temperature records though.



Source



Source
Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:


Keep, what happened to you?

This wasn't you back in the days! You actually were cool, posted information that didn't involve doom, provided analysis about tropical weather. You even provided humor. Where are the rock videos? We miss the old keeperofthegate. You have changed to the minority thinking on here.

The majority however will have a say!

Come back to the old WU! We wont be silence!


its still me and iam still the same
but i cannot expect rules to be followed
if i fail to follow them myself

i still post the odd vid but more so on other blogs then the docs and i still have fun as well
good clean fun
i post info all the time when someting is coming

but most of the time i just look over the fence watchin


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


3 horas?, ya si fuera un dia entero como suele ser en Centroamerica en la epoca lluviosa?
que bueno que estas bien...
Thanks sadly for me it didn`t rain next week when I need it.:/ I don`t want to go to MUN.You will be surprised how the cities in Honduras Flood easily.oue sewage is the problem as people throws trash in there and when it rains water can`t go anywhere.
Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:


Keep, what happened to you?

This wasn't you back in the days! You actually were cool, posted information that didn't involve doom, provided analysis about tropical weather. You even provided humor. Where are the rock videos? We miss the old keeperofthegate. You have changed to the minority thinking on here.

The majority however will have a say!

Come back to the old WU! We wont be silence!


Keeper's the same as am I .. Why do you feel the need to hide behind this new blog handle ??
The Souris River is slowly starting to rise....

The Flood Warning continues for
the Souris river near Foxholm.
* Until further notice.
* At 11:15 am Tuesday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. Ice
jam flooding is also possible.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 10.5 feet by
Friday morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact... at 10.0 feet... there is little or no impact. At 12.0
feet... rural flooding begins.
Quoting allancalderini:
Thanks sadly for me it didn`t rain next week when I need it.:/ I don`t want to go to MUN.You will be surprised how the cities in Honduras Flood easily.oue sewage is the problem as people throws trash in there and when it rains water can`t go anywhere.


I know how it happens, a thunderstorm goes by and chances are I have to watch the creek around for overflowing in few hours... pretty dangerous.

I lived in Costa Rica for 13 years (began going to elementary school there in 1998), then came to NYC...
Quoting Gearsts:
CaribBoy im with you this year :D
I don`t remember correctly but when the central antilles get a lot of tc activity generally Honduras don`t see a lot.sighs.
Quoting Gearsts:
CaribBoy im with you this year :D


It's dry like a desert here... hopefully things will change in late April/May, which is generally that time of year when the weather turns a bit wetter with also the very first thunderstorms!! I can't wait for a more active/interesting pattern. And that's why I don't want an El Nino :D
Quoting Levi32:


No, it wasn't specifically your comment that sparked that last part. My apologies.

Also, Google searches on the normal distribution subject are turning up results that state that the global and northern hemisphere land temperature distributions are fairly close to the normal distribution. I am not well-versed in the statistical analysis of our temperature records though.



Source



Source


You're right, when arranging the data in that fashion, which can be done. But when looking at global temperature averages/anomalies like this one we have all seen before Link it is obvious not a bell, and would need to be analyzed as non normal, hence over a 30 year frame to get a reliable trend. The cool thing about statistics is you can most definitely rearrange the data sets to perform specific tests, but when talking about global temp anomalies in the context of global warming, you need a 30 year plus period.
Quoting CaribBoy:


It's dry like a desert here... hopefully things will change in late April/May, which is generally that time of year when the weather turns a bit wetter with also the very first thunderstorms!! I can't wait for a more active/interesting pattern. And that's why I don't want an El Nino :D
Yes we are in the boring time of the year :/
i will discuss this no further here if ya want to chat come to my blog or make your own and i will come there

iam done with it here

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I know how it happens, a thunderstorm goes by and chances are I have to watch the creek around for overflowing in few hours... pretty dangerous.

I lived in Costa Rica for 13 years (began going to elementary school there in 1998), then came to NYC...
I am not sure but I think you are couple of years older than me did Mitch affect your place?.I am happy in the place I am because even though I am not rich at any cost I always thank God because I live better than most people in here.Sadly our government don`t pay attention and don`t instigate people to worry about the causes it happen when you throw trash or contaminate.
Quoting Gearsts:
Yes we are in the boring time of the year :/


And it has been warm too.


.CLIMATE...THE MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES TODAY
HAS TIED THE DAILY RECORD SET AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT SAN
JUAN/P.R. IN 1984.

Quoting Birthmark:

Zero trend is not the same as lack of statistical significance. In fact, if one does the work one finds that more than half of the time since 1995 fifteen years of temperature data fails to show statistically significant warming.

Yet here we are, warmer than we were 15 years ago.
Quoting Birthmark:

Yep. But for most of the people here, it would be very easy to confuse the simulation with the recent denialist obsession with fifteen years. I'm trying to make it clear that those denialist claims have no validity.


I'm not sure what claims you are referring to, exactly. However, I find it pretty silly to deny that since the 1998 El Nino jump, we've had it pretty flat so far.

This is the average of GISS, HadCRUT3, RSS, and UAH, brought to RSS/UAH anomaly baseline. Y-axis is degrees Celsius.



Source

This plot I made myself a while back makes it clear that the short-term model predictions have been too high during this period. Come on now, it's easy to see, and it's just interesting. It doesn't doom anybody's claims of anything, but it does bring to light some flaws that may still exist in the climate models, specifically modeling natural variability on a decadal timescale. To deny that is ridiculous.



AR4 Data Source
Quoting allancalderini:
I am not sure but I think you are couple of years older than me did Mitch affect your place?.I am happy in the place I am because even though I am not rich at any cost I always thank God because I live better than most people in here. Sadly our government don`t pay attention and don`t instigate people to worry about the causes it happen when you throw trash or contaminate.


what can I say about that... (...)
Yes I was 6 years old in 1998, I remember that it rained for over a week one time, the river in front of my old house (about a half mile away) was extremely overflowing, took a bridge away with it, as mud (not water) was hurtling down. It had a very disgusting smell. You could make out roots, branches, pieces of wood that came from no where. I was safe throughout...
I just saw in the news that 3 of the 5 most important cities of Honduras are flood.wow what a holy week.
Quoting Levi32:


I'm not sure what claims you are referring to, exactly. However, I find it pretty silly to deny that since the 1998 El Nino jump, we've had it pretty flat so far.

This is the average of GISS, HadCRUT3, RSS, and UAH, brought to RSS/UAH anomaly baseline. Y-axis is degrees Celsius.



Source

This plot I made myself a while back makes it clear that the short-term model predictions have been too high during this period. Come on now, it's easy to see, and it's just interesting. It doesn't doom anybody's claims of anything, but it does bring to light some flaws that may still exist in the climate models, specifically modeling natural variability on a decadal timescale. To deny that is ridiculous.



Data Source


Here's a good read on exactly what you are talking about. The models are running a bit warmer than the observations, but are still within the 95% confidence level and performing well. Link
Quoting allancalderini:
I just saw in the news that 3 of the 5 most important cities of Honduras are flood.wow what a holy week.


I know some... any of these?

Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba or Comayagua
Quoting Naga5000:


Here's a good read on exactly what you are talking about. The models are running a bit warmer than the observations, but are still within the 95% confidence level and performing well. Link



Is the projection too high?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what can I say about that... (...)
Yes I was 6 years old in 1998, I remember that it rained for over a week one time, the river in front of my old house (about a half mile away) was extremely overflowing, took a bridge away with it, as mud (not water) was hurtling down. It had a very disgusting smell. You could make out roots, branches, pieces of wood that came from no where. I was safe throughout...
Thanks to Mitch my birthday party was suspended until a 2 weeks later as I am born no November first I remember that the city was flood and was divided in two as the main bridge was broken people from the eastern couldn`t pass to western part,But if you ask people in La Ceiba which hurricane has been worst most of them are going to say Fifi.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I know some... any of these?

Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba or Comayagua
Tegucigalpa was flood yesterday and it continues to rain from what I say now its the turn of La Ceiba and SPS.btw have you come to Honduras? you know a lot of information of my country.
Quoting allahgore:



Is the projection too high?


The observations are within the accepted interval of the projection, so no.
Quoting Naga5000:


The observations are within the accepted interval of the projection, so no.


Ok because looking at levi graph it looked as if it was projected higher.
Quoting allancalderini:
Tegucigalpa was flood yesterday and it continues to rain from what I say now its the turn of La Ceiba and SPS.btw have you come to Honduras? you know a lot of information of my country.


Remember when that president was overthrown? (with all respects) Something like that happened, that's how I learn lots about it plus I have some nice Honduran friends. One of them is my buddy.
Another graph that supports Levi's claim, monthly averages from NASA

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Remember when that president was overthrown? (with all respects) Something like that happened, that's how I learn lots about it plus I have some nice Honduran friends. One of them is my buddy.
oh my! people know us for bad stuff my US history teacher was not lying when he told me that,but even though I still am proud of being a Honduran.Don`t worry I am not into politics.That is cool that you have friends that are from latinamerican countries so you can`t forget your roots.Btw I am really sorry if you have trouble understanding my english I am not very good at it.
I claim nothing. I am just observing. If I were a developer of a model which gave a prediction close to the AR4 mean, and I saw a 15-year period where the trend started rapidly departing from the prediction, it would make me nervous. Only a few more years of this and that 95% confidence interval will be breached. We'll have to see if the warming trend resumes. Little can be proven by 15 years.
Quoting Doppler22:

-_- really... (as in snow for me again)



What??? No. Just no. No snow at all.
Quoting allancalderini:
oh my! people know us for bad stuff my US history teacher was not lying when he told me that,but even though I still am proud of being a Honduran.Don`t worry I am not into politics.That is cool that you have friends that are from latinamerican countries so you can`t forget your roots.Btw I am really sorry if you have trouble understanding my english I am not very good at it.


Don't worry, your English is much better than my Spanish :) (
I think I can count!)
Quoting allancalderini:
oh my! people know us for bad stuff my US history teacher was not lying when he told me that,but even though I still am proud of being a Honduran.Don`t worry I am not into politics.That is cool that you have friends that are from latinamerican countries so you can`t forget your roots.Btw I am really sorry if you have trouble understanding my english I am not very good at it.


its perfect to me... no prob

I'll be back later...fun chatting with ya
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not sure what claims you are referring to, exactly. However, I find it pretty silly to deny that since the 1998 El Nino jump, we've had it pretty flat so far.

Now you are jumping to conclusions. I merely pointed out that the current 15 year trend cannot rule out that the warming trend has continued exactly as before.

However, the WTI temperature is interesting. Since it is very difficult for the human eye to figure out what trend, if any, exists from the graph you posted. So I've taken the liberty of using the same source for the linear trends in each of the data sets. Further, I have used Hadcrut4 rather than the old Hadcrut3.

I have also included the WTI long term trend for comparison.


It's pretty clear that with the exception of RSS, the trend is up. In Gistemp and Hadcrut4, the difference between the short and long terms is rather paltry when one considers the fact that the fifteen year trends lack statistical significance.

There may be a real difference between the UAH fifteen year trend and the long term WTI. Hard to say.

RSS, as usual, is out to lunch.
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:49 PM PDT on March 26, 2013
Scattered Clouds
77 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 33%
Dew Point: 46 °F
Wind: 3 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 78 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 9.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

I have 75.4 here, My high was 75.8 Forecast was 76.....
Quoting goosegirl1:


Don't worry, your English is much better than my Spanish :) (
I think I can count!)
Thanks!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


its perfect to me... no prob

I'll be back later...fun chatting with ya
The same I had a lot of fun too.
News from Houston-Galveston NWS:

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
Reed Timmer having a live discussion in regards to wind shear vectors, if anyone is interested.
Link
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Another graph that supports Levi's claim, monthly averages from NASA


Again, trends are hard to see. This is (I believe) the trend for the same data plotted against the long term trend (back to 1979):


Quoting Birthmark:

Again, trends are hard to see. This is (I believe) the trend for the same data plotted against the long term trend (back to 1979):




Can you do one of those trend lines from 1998 to current? I don't know how to use that site.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Can you do one of those trend lines from 1998 to current? I don't know how to use that site.

Sho 'nuff!

690. txjac
Quoting PedleyCA:
I'm Melting


Gonna be my new summer song
New York State Sees Climate Change as Risk to Bondholders
By Freeman Klopott & Esmé E. Deprez - Mar 26, 2013 9:29 PM GMT+0100
New York is listing climate change as a risk for bondholders after Hurricane Sandy caused more than $40 billion in damage in the state and Governor Andrew Cuomo said better preparations are needed.
The state may be the first U.S. state to inform investors of the danger posed by rising sea levels, flooding and erosion tied to climate change, said Rich Azzopardi, a Cuomo spokesman. The citation first appeared in budget documents in January and has since been included among fiscal risks mentioned in bond offering statements, Azzopardi said.

Read the whole article

Good night from Germany!
Quoting Grothar:
However, it is my understanding that an exceptional warm Indian ocean would have an affect of creating drought conditions on the eastern areas of the African continent. It would stand to reason that a warmer Indian Ocean would most likely pull more moisture in and draw it from the continental land masses. There have been terrible droughts in the eastern portions of Africa. Devastating
It's not so much the ocean being warm, but where the warmth is. Having warm waters in the western Indian Ocean can actually be very beneficial for rainfall in certain parts of Africa.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't forget that the EUROSIP has a warm bias though. A least from what I've observed.
I would say it has more of a persistence bias if anything. Nonetheless, it's probably one of the better models for ENSO forecasts. Here are the March forecasts for the last two years

March 2011



March 2012

Quoting TomTaylor:
It's not so much the ocean being warm, but where the warmth is. Having the warm waters in the western Indian Ocean can actually be very beneficial for rainfall in certain parts of Africa.


Pay closer attention. That is why I posted the image of abundant moisture in Central Africa and mentioned the possible dry conditions in East Africa. :)

What? Do you think I'm slipping in my old age?
Quoting Grothar:


Pay closer attention. That is why I posted the image of abundant moisture in Central Africa and mentioned the possible dry conditions in East Africa. :)

What? Do you think I'm slipping in my old age?
I heard we as humans get better with age...Good evening Gro..
Good Evening Sensei.
Quoting hydrus:
I heard we as humans get better with age...Good evening Gro..


Hi, Hy

Quoting Grothar:


What? Do you think I'm slipping in my old age?
yes. :)
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Evening Sensei.



Good Evening, Grasshopper.
Quoting TomTaylor:
yes :)

:P ">D
Is interesting to note that the EPAC has two ITCZ's in the surface charts. Why is that occuring?

Quoting Grothar:

:P ">D
I knew you were gettin up there, but posting hieroglyphs.?.....sigh...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Is interesting to note that the EPAC has two ITCZ's in the surface charts. Why is that occuring?



Often in a neutral or La Nina state of the equatorial Pacific, since the cold tongue of water there from the Humboldt Current is well-defined, it suppresses convection right along the equator. However, the trade winds are still converging in the region from both hemispheres, so the result is an area of convergence on either side of the cold tongue, one north, and one south. This forms a "double-ITCZ."

You can see this in the 2-week precipitation accumulation of the GFS ensemble forecast.



Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Is interesting to note that the EPAC has two ITCZ's in the surface charts. Why is that occuring?

Who said you can't have two convergence zones ;)

Quoting Levi32:


Often in a neutral or La Nina state of the equatorial Pacific, since the cold tongue of water there from the Humboldt Current is well-defined, it suppresses convection right along the equator. However, the trade winds are still converging in the region from both hemispheres, so the result is an area of convergence on either side of the cold tongue, one north, and one south. This forms a "double-ITCZ."

You can see this in the 2-week precipitation accumulation of the GFS ensemble forecast.



nice plot, thought that came from Maue for a second there.
Quoting Levi32:


I'm not sure what claims you are referring to, exactly. However, I find it pretty silly to deny that since the 1998 El Nino jump, we've had it pretty flat so far.

This is the average of GISS, HadCRUT3, RSS, and UAH, brought to RSS/UAH anomaly baseline. Y-axis is degrees Celsius.



Source

This plot I made myself a while back makes it clear that the short-term model predictions have been too high during this period. Come on now, it's easy to see, and it's just interesting. It doesn't doom anybody's claims of anything, but it does bring to light some flaws that may still exist in the climate models, specifically modeling natural variability on a decadal timescale. To deny that is ridiculous.



AR4 Data Source


Levi, you are one of the best here at reading the data. You are also level headed and as honest as anyone knows how to be. I DO have a great respect for you, your knowledge and your willingness to share your knowledge with us. However, what you have done, with the top graphic, is the same thing that we have dealt with for awhile now. Your starting point of 1998 is a favorite year for the denial industry to use as their starting point when they wish to claim "see, no warming". I know you well enough to know that you do not have the intent to deceive anyone. We both know that 1998 was an outlier, very warm year. Should the graph have shown 1998 to have been an average of the years from 1980 to 2012, then the slope would look a lot different when you use 1998 as the starting point. I hope I said this in a way that understandable?

I encourage you, I beg you, to join us in these conversations. Knowledge should be a shared experience and if you can bring out information that produces a better scientific theory than is the AGWT then I would be elated. Should you not be able to do this then perhaps you will get a better understanding of how sound the AGWT is at the present. Maybe, just maybe, your involvement would help to tweak the AGWT that makes it an even better scientific theory than it presently is. Isn't that what science is all about?
Quoting Levi32:


Often in a neutral or La Nina state of the equatorial Pacific, since the cold tongue of water there from the Humboldt Current is well-defined, it suppresses convection right along the equator. However, the trade winds are still converging in the region from both hemispheres, so the result is an area of convergence on either side of the cold tongue, one north, and one south. This forms a "double-ITCZ."

You can see this in the 2-week precipitation accumulation of the GFS ensemble forecast.





Thanks for explaining what causes the double convergence zones.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Main Development Region are approaching 2005 levels, which were about 0.9C above average at this time last I heard from Levi.

Quoting HurrikanEB:


Retirement is specific to the damages inflicted on the local area... Generally, Juan (2003) is regarded as Canada's most destructive hurricane in over a century... Igor had the same price tag as Juan. True, $200 million is just a drop in the bucket for the US, but for Canada, Igor was significant.



I'm sorry, but if Gordon killed nearly 1,500 people and over 500 million in damage gets retired, but a storm like Juan or Igor does? Why is property damage in Canada to a localized area more significant than a devastation in the Caribbean?

I'm not sure why you would defend such?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Thanks for explaining what causes the double convergence zones.
I'd add to Levi's explanation that it is springtime. Since the ITCZ follows the position of the sun and the sun is currently almost directly above the equator, it allows for a convergent zone to form in each hemisphere.

During summer (winter) months you won't see dual convergent zones because the sun is in the northern (southern) hemisphere. If you look at Levi's map, however, there are dual convergent zones extending across the central Pacific and also present in parts of the Indian and Atlantic ocean. The SST profile and position of the sun make this happen.

705. That is the reason I picked 1997, so that the entire El Nino cycle of 1997-1998 was captured in the 15 (in this case 16)-year trend. I did not start with 1998.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Main Development Region are approaching 2005 levels, which were about 0.9C above average at this time last I heard from Levi.
For reference...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Main Development Region are approaching 2005 levels, which were about 0.9C above average at this time last I heard from Levi.



Don't have a cow; It's March.

It'd be different if there was like an invest or something ridiculous like that, but nothing's happening.


Wait till the end of May. Pre-season forecasts are always wrong anyway.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

A good start would be for our elected leaders to actually pay attention to what polls say of the majority of U.S. citizens. Heck, even having congressional representation match closely to vote totals would be a nice start...


The problem I have is when people so heavily emphasize the role of government in climate change while not emphasizing the greater importance of individual responsibility first. It reminds of those who talk harshly laying down the hammer on unethical behavior in society and unfair treatment of people through government legislation, meanwhile while such persons don't seem to live by such. The result could potentially be the psychological trigger for such behavior. Of course I can't directly prove so, which would be a generalization. It's merely speculation.

Of course government has a role, however we must be careful not to exchange rational thinking for political bias.
If we had this type of pattern in late January instead of late March, instead of low 30s central Florida would easily be looking at upper 10s away from the coast...
This season can't be active.

The names are too....strange.

Think of the irony if Washington DC were to be struck by 'Hurricane Barry' ;)
nevermind
Quoting Levi32:
705. That is the reason I picked 1997, so that the entire El Nino cycle of 1997-1998 was captured in the 15 (in this case 16)-year trend. I did not start with 1998.


Yes. Yes, you did. My apologies to you, Levi. I am so sorry for my mistake. I guess that I am just too use to seeing 1998 as the starting point.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Look at 2006 names...see what happened in 2012?


No...?
I think the 2012 names were mostly normal by comparison.
Freeze warning issued for South Florida inland areas. I don't think I've ever seen a freeze warning issued for that area this late in March.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzon e=FLZ063&warncounty=FLC043&firewxzone=FLZ063&local _place1=&product1=Freeze Warning
Quoting Levi32:
I claim nothing. I am just observing. If I were a developer of a model which gave a prediction close to the AR4 mean, and I saw a 15-year period where the trend started rapidly departing from the prediction, it would make me nervous. Only a few more years of this and that 95% confidence interval will be breached. We'll have to see if the warming trend resumes. Little can be proven by 15 years.



Indeed, basic scientific statistical analysis suggests one wants alpha to be = 0.05, anything more and we have a type 1 error.
Almost all Georgia and South Carolina are going to freeze tonight...many other places too

^hey myopinionmatters...if you want your opinion to matter, then stop posting such childish nonsense.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yup, a BIG cold snap is progged by the GFS to encompass the whole eastern half of the US.

By the way NOAA is forecasting HUGE drought relief for FL.

6-10 days


8 to 14 days



Hopefully this will verify!
Quoting Jedkins01:

Hopefully this will verify!


There is lots of rain coming by around Easter...especially for the southern Plains

Quoting wxgeek723:
This season can't be active.

The names are too....strange.

Think of the irony if Washington DC were to be struck by 'Hurricane Barry' ;)
The names in the 60,s and 70,s were far stranger then what is used today..check it out sometime if you need laugh..:)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think he meant current SOI values don't support an El Nino nor La Nina. Which they don't.

Ah yes, that would make much more sense.
Quoting Levi32:


The number of incorrect assumptions about my thought process that you derived from my comment is staggering.

Perhaps your wording could have been improved. The way it was worded certainly suggested that you believed the rate of global warming had changed based solely on the near-surface global temperature trends, as that was the temperature record that you keep focusing on even though other heat reservoirs in the climate system hold more heat, and are still warming.

If that was not quite what you meant, then perhaps I misunderstood you, but I was not alone in my interpretation of your comments.
Quoting hydrus:
The names in the 60,s and 70,s were far stranger then what is used today..check it out sometime if you need laugh..:)


Lol I know, Hurricane Beulah WTF...but I feel like some of those names might have been slightly more socially tolerable back then.
Quoting TomTaylor:
For reference...


Levi's chart has the anomaly near 0.6C...not sure if it's his graph or the one you posted, but I'd bet on the latter.



Quoting RTSplayer:


Don't have a cow; It's March.

It'd be different if there was like an invest or something ridiculous like that, but nothing's happening.


Wait till the end of May. Pre-season forecasts are always wrong anyway.

Don't worry, I'm not. Just pointing something random out.
Quoting myopinionmatters:


Little Nea, isnt that cute?
.


Are you JFV?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Levi's chart has the anomaly near 0.6C...not sure if it's his graph or the one you posted, but I'd bet on the latter.
The one I posted is Levi's.
Quoting TomTaylor:
The one I posted is Levi's.

Lol, I don't know then. Maybe it's outdated.
Quoting myopinionmatters:



You are on here 24/7. I really hope that is not during NWS hours while tax payers are paying your salary. Our tax dollars at its best. No wonder they are laying off people at the NWS



I smell a troll on the blogs we are not on her 24/7
get the trolls Taz
Quoting geepy86:
get the trolls Taz
.

I wish I was if they made me a mod but oh well I hop the other mods are keeping a close eye on what he says and do be come I smell a troll
Someone let the children out.
is there anyone else
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is there anyone else



Your a little late keep
Good clean up here Keeper
Quoting Tazmanian:



Your a little late keep
never late taz just took a nap woke up to put a troll to bed
Taz you have 5088 post & 111,134 comments sounds like 24/7. LOL
Any one voted??? I did

XD as soon as I get on the chat empties out
Quoting Doppler22:
XD as soon as I get on the chat empties out


everyone left so fast????
I guess the clean up went too far then...lol
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
never late taz just took a nap woke up to put a troll to bed
.


I hop the troll in joys it
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Taz you have 5088 post & 111,134 comments sounds like 24/7. LOL
.


Overs the years lol
iam still here

getting late now anyway

its the normal late evening slow down
brief warm up then another cool down looks more cold then cool

Buoy #13001 off the west of Africa water temp is 76.8f is that normal for this time of the year?
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Buoy #13001 off the west of Africa water temp is 76.8f is that normal for this time of the year?
.


Likey not
Where are the old bloggers at? Where have they gone? Will they be back? WU use to have bloggers that would blog 24 hours especially with an approaching tropical storm. Hurricane Dean, Katrina, Wilma, Ernesto, Ike just to name a few. There were so many storms with great bloggers back then. Weatherunderground use to provide up to date analysis and informative information about tropical weather.

Do you miss the old days?

Hurricane season is June 1st.

well... Night everyone
they will be here come the end of april
first week of may
night 22
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Buoy #13001 off the west of Africa water temp is 76.8f is that normal for this time of the year?

No. It's 1-2C above average.
Lurking and working, here.

A few showers spreading over the northern mountains and maybe some sprinkles/flurries out on the plains.



Pretty big melt day for Nederland today. Temps pushed 60 degrees in some foothills locations while temps down in the Boulder/Denver barely broke 50 in some areas. Inversion, I guess.

Is there a graphic I can look at to quantify the presence/extent of an inversion?
BringBackTheOldWU~ remember back in the day during the winter when we'd only have 20 posts a day? They'll appear when the storms do. Tropics are dead. The only notable thing at the moment is that NOAA has a floater on 90S, 90P & 90W right now. I don't remember the last time this happened!!!



90W


90P


90S
been here a while its the same every year you get the winter spring group then the tropical group as something tropical gets close to happening

if you been here yerself in the old days you would know that

as a matter of fact this is the first winter that alot remained on the blogs most if not all use to take the winter off

few years back be lucky to get 50 posts on a blog in two or three days
Quoting Skyepony:
BringBackTheOldWU~ remember back in the day during the winter when we'd only have 20 posts a day? They'll appear when the storms do. Tropics are dead. The only notable thing at the moment is that NOAA has a floater on 90S, 90P & 90W right now. I don't remember the last time this happened!!!



90W


90P


90S



Where this missing 90A 90B 90C 90L 90E and will have a nic set


75.8 today down from 81.2 yesterday.
roller coaster ride now. Maybe rain on the weekend?
Quoting PedleyCA:


75.8 today down from 81.2 yesterday.
roller coaster ride now. Maybe rain on the weekend?
we almost got to 50 today ped made it to 48 with those warmer north winds
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
been here a while its the same every year you get the winter spring group then the tropical group as something tropical gets close to happening

if you been here yerself in the old days you would know that

as a matter of fact this is the first winter that alot remained on the blogs most if not all use to take the winter off

few years back be lucky to get 50 posts on a blog in two or three days


Although I have not been here for a while...nearly 2 years.
I have seen some deeply dormant blog... I think this year is a little more active in terms of posts.
I love tropical weather. But I like reading the blog year round due to the fact I learn so much from the very smart people on this blog. Well most of them!!
Quoting PedleyCA:


75.8 today down from 81.2 yesterday.
roller coaster ride now. Maybe rain on the weekend?


Coaster ride... stop it, yer killin' me!

This Sunday we have a predicted high of 50 and a predicted low of 18... and that's not an especially big swing for Nederland. :)



EDIT - Included both days to show the 20 degree high temp difference.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we almost got to 50 today ped made it to 48 with those warmer north winds


Looks like that was it for you. Back to the high 30's... :p




I disagree.

Quoting Grothar:




I disagree.

ABOUT WHAT?
Grothar I think you and I may be close to the same age.
Quoting Grothar:


I disagree.



Quoting gulfbreeze:
ABOUT WHAT?


Pay him no mind - I think he's a troll. ;-)

(serious face: This is a joke. I don't think Grothar is a troll... )




Now THIS is why they call it the Pacific...




Headlines from:

http://iceagenow.info/



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



Hamburg Germany – All-time March snowfall record



Kiev again under state of emergency due to very heavy snowfall



UK’s coldest spring since 1963 claims 5,000 lives



Heavy snow for Saint Louis



Germany – Coldest spring on record



Major winter storm to pound Colorado, Kansas and the Ohio Valley



Snow blocking many roads around Belfast



Coldest UK March in 50 years



Most of southern Canada buried beneath 40-50 or more inches of snow



Paralyzed cities, buried cars and lots of snow – Video



Worst winter storm in 150 years – Belarus grinds to a halt



Bridgeport Connecticut – 2nd Snowiest Season EVER



The Mini-Ice Age has Arrived
Check out this killer upper air jet streak departing the east coast!



Remember that storm TWC named Virgil? Well, he shall soon find himself beneath the very divergent Left Exit Region of the jet streak, allowing the bottom to drop out pressure-wise.



Quoting MrMixon:




Pay him no mind - I think he's a troll. ;-)


Now THIS is why they call it the Pacific...

Who the hell are you calling A TROLL!!
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Grothar I think you and I may be close to the same age.


You poor thing. :)
He started it! But I must say I totally agree with him...
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Who the hell are you calling A TROLL!!


It's OK, gulf. MrMixon is a friend of mine.
img src="">
Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
I love tropical weather too. I love how people use to get along back then. People actually didnt talk down to you or call you names. You actually saw people agree with one another. Humor was allowed. Friendships made.

Bring back a tropical weather only blog. Let the "argumentists and their followers" have this blog.

Think and Act!

Hurricane season will be here before you know it.


Last I checked, humor was still allowed.
Sorry must be the old Age.
@775

Yes, because the weather at a few select cities across the globe is representative of the Earth's overall temperature. Gotcha.
Quoting Grothar:




I disagree.



Oh, I completely agree.
Good Day All - Stay Warm - Stay Safe - Sleep Well
Spring is coming - The supply is limited this year....
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Day All - Stay Warm - Stay Safe - Sleep Well
Spring is coming - The supply is limited this year....



Goodnight, Grasshopper.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Sorry must be the old Age.


The first hurricane I was in was in '48. (That would be 1948) What was yours?
In fact, as the low bombs out over the next 24 hours, this water vapor loop will be a good place to watch it take place.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Sorry must be the old Age.


Ah, it might've been a little soon for me to be throwing around the "T" word, what with the ban hammer still steaming and all...

If my timing is off I blame the weather (see, this comment is weather-related).

Quoting KoritheMan:


Last I checked, humor was still allowed.


Oh man, I hope so...
Quoting crunja:



Headlines from:

http://iceagenow.info/



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



Hamburg Germany – All-time March snowfall record



Kiev again under state of emergency due to very heavy snowfall



UK’s coldest spring since 1963 claims 5,000 lives



Heavy snow for Saint Louis



Germany – Coldest spring on record



Major winter storm to pound Colorado, Kansas and the Ohio Valley



Snow blocking many roads around Belfast



Coldest UK March in 50 years



Most of southern Canada buried beneath 40-50 or more inches of snow



Paralyzed cities, buried cars and lots of snow – Video



Worst winter storm in 150 years – Belarus grinds to a halt



Bridgeport Connecticut – 2nd Snowiest Season EVER



The Mini-Ice Age has Arrived


What's the term I'm looking for? Cherry picking? Hmm... Yeah, I think that's it.
Ok enyoy the cool weather Hot will be here soon and Hurricane season. Be nice and enyoy the Blog .Out for the night good night all.
crunja...

The AO is extremely negative and to add salt on the wound, the NAO is at its lowest point all winter. Look it up.
Quoting Grothar:


The first hurricane I was in was in '48. (That would be 1948) What was yours?
1958
Quoting KoritheMan:


Last I checked, humor was still allowed.



Wow, already 39 deg here north of Tampa! This is the coldest night so far this winter... Oh wait, this is spring! Lol
Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
Where are the old bloggers at? Where have they gone? Will they be back? WU use to have bloggers that would blog 24 hours especially with an approaching tropical storm. Hurricane Dean, Katrina, Wilma, Ernesto, Ike just to name a few. There were so many storms with great bloggers back then. Weatherunderground use to provide up to date analysis and informative information about tropical weather.

Do you miss the old days?

Hurricane season is June 1st.


its just a lame weather week we had those years ago too
I miss Dean that was my favorite Hurricane
Gnite everyone
Quoting Birthmark:

Sho 'nuff!



Awesome! Thanks a ton.


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
HIC007-270715-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FF.W.0033.130327T0410Z-130327T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
610 PM HST TUE MAR 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN KAUAI COUNTY

* UNTIL 915 PM HST

* AT 607 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAENA..NA PALI STATE PARK...MOLOAA...KALALAU VALLEY...
RINCEVILLE...KAPAA...HANALEI AND ANAHOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 915 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2230 15957 2220 15918 2195 15933 2212 15981

$$
LAU
goodnight max
Yay for snow melting.

Vertical instability in the tropical Atlantic is currently near average.

The islands of Kauai and Oahu is expected to receive at least 1-2 inches of rain and few areas could receive more for tomorrow's wet weather.

Much of the southeast are under a freeze warning.

Weekly Tropical Climate Note

Issued on Tuesday 26 March 2013

Equatorial Rossby wave revives monsoon

An Equatorial Rossby (ER) wave, a westward-moving wave of tropical weather, is crossing Australian longitudes this week. The wave has contributed to a re-activation of the monsoon trough over the Australian tropics and northern seas. Numerical weather models predict the formation of a tropical low within the trough during this week, although the location and strength of the low remains uncertain. This development may lead to a short period of monsoon-like conditions about the %u2018Top End%u2019 of the Northern Territory and Kimberley region later this week, extending into the Easter long weekend. Above average rainfall and a slight increase in the risk of tropical cyclone development are forecast during this period.
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is currently in the African region, which favours below average rainfall for northern Australia (this week being the exception). The MJO is forecast to weaken and remain weak or indiscernible, having little impact on tropical Australian weather, until at least mid April.

See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO.

Tropical Pacific remains ENSO neutral
Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue within the neutral range. The 30 day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 24 March is 8.0. The recent increase in the SOI has been due to persistent high pressure over the central Pacific Ocean, and is not considered indicative of the broadscale climate.

See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.

Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Bureau of Meteorology
Good Morning Folks!..46 by me right now...brrr.....



Not bad for January. Seriously impressive amount of snowcover for late march.
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Mainly dry and very warm weather will prevail until Thursday when moisture starts to increase. Better moisture bringing scatered showers caused by a nearby front will arrive on Friday and linger into Saturday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 60W WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD TO
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROF BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A SFC FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS
S/W ENERGY BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS
THE WRN ATLC. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING 900-775 MB LAPSE RATES OF
7.5C AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. DESPITE LOW LEVEL DRYNESS...SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE ERRATIC DUE TO WEAK
STEERING WINDS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN INCREASES RAPIDLY EARLY THU WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LATEST GFS
IS VERY AGGRESIVE DEVELOPING PRECIP THU MORNING SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS UPWARD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE THU NIGHT AS SFC FRONT GETS
CLOSER. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE GET DEEPER FRI WITH PRECIP LIKELY
ACROSS MANY AREAS EXCEPT ST. CROIX. WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT AS
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT SUN WHILE UPPER TROF LINGERS AROUND. GFS
MORE AGGRESIVE THAN ECMWF DRYING THINGS OUT. GEFS SHOW A MORE GRADUAL
DRYING TREND STARTING SUN NIGHT AS REMNANT MOISTURE DISSIPATES AND
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. BY MID NEXT WEEK...ECMWF SHOWS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 27/17Z.SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER NW
PUERTO RICO BTWN 17Z-21Z. LATEST 27/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH TODAY BUT BUILD 5-7 FT POSSIBLY UP
TO 8 FT OVER THE WEEKEND IN NORTH SWELLS AND STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE TODAY WILL RESULT IN
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER COASTAL AREAS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL HAVE
A RISK OF ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AS ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE. STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ERRATIC.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY ON THU AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD FOR TODAY AT SJU IS ONLY 90F AND WE ARE LIKELY
TO BE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO IT IS PRETTY MUCH DEFINITE
THAT A NEW RECORD WILL BE ESTABLISHED LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF SOMEWHAT THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 74 84 74 / 0 0 40 40
STT 84 77 77 77 / 0 0 40 40
Good morning! Here is something especially for our Aussi, though I don't think he's personally affected by this problem :-)

Vitamin D deficiency soars in sunny Australia


Australia is one of the sunniest places on Earth. So, you'd think Australians would have some of the highest levels of vitamin D, which is produced by sun exposure. But you'd be wrong! ...

... One of the main reasons for the Vitamin D deficiency in Australia is a changing lifestyle that has reduced the amount of time people spend in the sun.

"We have nice clothes, beautiful buildings and we have glass - and the sort of UV we need to make Vitamin D doesn't get through glass - and then we sit in front of computers all day long," says Prince.

He also says the fear of getting skin cancer causes many Australians to cover up when they go outside, and that cuts into their Vitamin D levels.


Source and whole article
Quoting BringBackTheOldWU:
Where are the old bloggers at? Where have they gone? Will they be back? WU use to have bloggers that would blog 24 hours especially with an approaching tropical storm. Hurricane Dean, Katrina, Wilma, Ernesto, Ike just to name a few. There were so many storms with great bloggers back then. Weatherunderground use to provide up to date analysis and informative information about tropical weather.

Do you miss the old days?

Hurricane season is June 1st.



I know a few of the old bloggers, who have left, I still blog and chat every once in a while, they said they left here and will not return do to the mean spirited, viscious global warming crowd, they were attacked when they disagreed with their findings, they had enough and are no longer here!
Morning All, 34 in Zephyrhills FL. this AM. Frost everywhere and no wind.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Yay for snow melting.



I wish we had snow in Louisiana. It's already been 5 years since I saw snow in person.
Amazing the freeze went that far south,inland....
say OG..if your lurking, did the freezing temps hit you down there last night?..I think my city was protected by the water temps, only went into the low 40's and the wind died down thank goodness.
All the models are now going gang busters from the Upper TX Coast to FL (especially C & N FL with extremely heavy rains) Models are starting to spit out 10" plus inches of rain across the FL Panhandle with 3" to 5" across C FL.

Quoting barbamz:
Good morning! Here is something especially for our Aussi, though I don't think he's personally affected by this problem :-)

Vitamin D deficiency soars in sunny Australia


Australia is one of the sunniest places on Earth. So, you'd think Australians would have some of the highest levels of vitamin D, which is produced by sun exposure. But you'd be wrong! ...

... One of the main reasons for the Vitamin D deficiency in Australia is a changing lifestyle that has reduced the amount of time people spend in the sun.

"We have nice clothes, beautiful buildings and we have glass - and the sort of UV we need to make Vitamin D doesn't get through glass - and then we sit in front of computers all day long," says Prince.

He also says the fear of getting skin cancer causes many Australians to cover up when they go outside, and that cuts into their Vitamin D levels.


Source and whole article



This is just more proof that many dermatologists are too extreme, telling people to wear long sleeve clothing at all times outside during sun exposure, and if not apply SPF 50 before leaving at any point for sun exposure and reapply as long as you are out. Some of them act like we don't have an atmosphere and as if the sun is is 900,000 miles away from the earth.


Its extreme, and just as ridiculous as those who spend all day outside with peeling sun burns, well, maybe not THAT bad, but it's opposing 1 extreme with another, not a rational reaction, but an irrational reaction from dermatologists.

Of course, it would be dangerous to generalize all dermatologists to that extreme, but there are too many that take such an extreme position.
31.5F on my PWS at the moment! WOW!

It was 37.4 at 4am. What a drop!
can you believe these temps..its almost April!!!!!...
It is 39 out!! what season is this???
Very unusual to get this set up across FL in April our driest time of the year.

Ground is already wet here in NW Florida.. we don't need the rain where I live!
Quoting LargoFl:
can you believe these temps..its almost April!!!!!...


It wasn't this cold in January. It's probably warmer in Greenland than it is in FL this morning. Which is even more unusual.

well no rain for florida until monday per GFS so far..
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ground is already wet here in NW Florida.. we don't need the rain where I live!



Some of the models this morning are spitting out 10" totals across the Panhandle with lower totals of 3" to 5" by Orlando.
GEE...check out Monday whew...............
Nam has more snow for the NE.....................
Quoting LargoFl:
well no rain for florida until monday per GFS so far..


GFS is showing thunderstorms for C FL on Easter. That frame is actually Sunday Evening on the 0Z GFS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
414 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013


MEX MOS GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE RETURN FLOW WITH 30-40 POPS IN THE
FCST FROM SUN MORNING THRU MON NIGHT
. GIVEN THE LIMITED H100-H70
MOISTURE OVER THE WHAT WILL BE THE EVENTUAL SOURCE REGION (I.E. THE
NW CARIB/SE GOMEX) AND THE FACT THAT GFS PLACES THE FL PENINSULA
UNDER THE DESCENDING LEFT EXIT QUADRANT OF THE H30-H20 JET THRU THE
WEEKEND...THIS SOLUTION APPEARS OVERDONE. WILL KEEP MENTIONABLE
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST ON SUN...BUT WILL GO WITH 20-30PCT PRECIP ON
MON GIVEN ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

My friend over in Edgewater finally got his power restored last night from Sundays Severe storms that rolled thru Orlando. I am really watching next week as C FL could have a repeat this time could be some large tornadoes thrown in the mix as jet energy will by diving toward C FL come mid next week.

Also look at the warm air continuing to get pushed into Greenland. WOW!


GFS showing rain and evening seabreeze action across the FL Penisula Sunday afternoon and evening.

Florida Gulf Coast College in Sweet 16! Great job guys lets win this thing!!!!
Good morning.

The United States looks outbreak-free through the first week of April. A few days ago the GFS had been showing a very potent cut-off low with very nice return flow--advance of moisture to the north in advance of a strong storm system--but it has gradually trended more weak and south. With its current depiction, isolated severe weather would be possible across coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and potentially Florida on April 4, but that's about it.

A new storm system is depicted in the very long range, on April 9, but that's too far out to worry about right now.

I graphed this last night.

Quoting trunkmonkey:


I know a few of the old bloggers, who have left, I still blog and chat every once in a while, they said they left here and will not return do to the mean spirited, viscious global warming crowd, they were attacked when they disagreed with their findings, they had enough and are no longer here!


That's funny. Most of the "old bloggers" I know actually understand the science behind climate change. Cool story, bro.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning.

The United States looks outbreak-free through the first week of April. A few days ago the GFS had been showing a very potent cut-off low with very nice return flow--advance of moisture to the north in advance of a strong storm system--but it has gradually trended more weak and south. With its current depiction, isolated severe weather would be possible across coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and potentially Florida on April 4, but that's about it.

A new storm system is depicted in the very long range, on April 9, but that's too far out to worry about right now.

I graphed this last night.


At least for me, the next several days should feature a warmup that brings highs close to average. After that though, temperatures are falling right back below average. I would like a nice steady, big warmup that last for more than a few days, but whatever.

You got that graphing idea from chat last night. I made one too last night, but also with major hurricanes and hurricanes included.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


I know a few of the old bloggers, who have left, I still blog and chat every once in a while, they said they left here and will not return do to the mean spirited, viscious global warming crowd, they were attacked when they disagreed with their findings, they had enough and are no longer here!


I know the feeling. I expressed my feelings on Climate change last week and got pulverized for it. So I guess It's best just to stick to weather and let these other stick figures argue about something that can't be proven 100%. Do I think the climate is changing yes but do I believe it's all man related no.
Quoting wxchaser97:

At least for me, the next several days should feature a warmup that brings highs close to average. After that though, temperatures are falling right back below average. I would like a nice steady, big warmup that last for more than a few days, but whatever.

You got that graphing idea from chat last night. I made one too last night, but also with major hurricanes and hurricanes included.


TA13 I like your graph but I really like this one with a Cat 5 Katrina in the background.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I know the feeling. I expressed my feelings on Climate change last week and got polverized for it. So I guess It's best just to stick to weather and let these other stick figuers argue about something that can't be proven 100%. Do I think the weather is changing yes but do I believe it's all man related no.
No one here has ever been "pulverized" for expressing their opinions on climate change (or pretty much anything else). However, being that this is ostensibly a science-based blog forum, those stating things as fact that run counter to science are indeed asked to support those statements with credible data. If they can't, and instead simply double down on their anti-science rhetoric, then they will often be challenged, sometimes at a level they may find uncomfortable.

In short:

A) Opinions expressed as such are fine: "I don't think climate change is happening."

B) Opinions expressed as fact are not: "The earth hasn't warmed in 15 years."
Quoting Neapolitan:
No one here has ever been "pulverized" for expressing their opinions on climate change (or pretty much anything else). However, being that this is ostensibly a science-based blog forum, those stating things as fact that run counter to science are indeed asked to support those statements with credible data. If they can't, and instead simply double down on their anti-science rhetoric, then they will often be challenged, sometimes at a level they may find uncomfortable.

In short:

A) Opinions expressed as such are fine: "I don't think climate change is happening."

B) Opinions expressed as fact are not: "The earth hasn't warmed in 15 years."


Climate change is happening... The climate changes everyday :-)
Good morning all. I woke to a cool 56 degrees here in Key West. BRRRRRRR! I should have worn my socks! LOL Maybe we already had a pole shift and now the north pole is in the middle of the US??? We are expected to get back to the 80's this weekend. Thank goodness. I don't ever remember having a cool Easter down here. We would always go to the beach for an Easter picnic. Well with these current temps, no swimming for me on Easter this year. Everyone have a great day!
Quoting AussieStorm:


Climate change is happening... The climate changes everyday :-)


Hows the weather by you Aussie? Getting cool by you yet?
849. MahFL
@
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


... Do I think the weather is changing yes but do I believe it's all man related no.


By "weather" you mean climate ? right ?
Geesh can't seem to get my hands warm. This Florida boy is not used to this cold weather.

Unreal!
Quoting MahFL:
@

By "weather" you mean climate ? right ?


Yes. Fixed. Thank you!
Warmup begins tomorrow.

Cold in Europe as well.

Good Morning All..
Broke another low temp record this am..
34degrees..record of 35 in 2006..

A rather cold looking sunrise this am..

Good Morning All. Super cool to see Dr. Masters sprinkled throughout the day on Weather Channel coverage; looking at TWC last night and up pops Dr. M talking about Enso and the upcoming hurricane season.

Feels weird; this has been "our club" for the last several years, with Dr. M being a well kept secret so to speak for those not in the know, and now we have to share him with the rest of the folks.

On the super cool note, quite the late March onslaught this year in terms of Old Man Winter. The locals/old timers around here called it right (I thought they were crazy) with the comments at the end of January; "warm Jan = a really cold March"..........If you live long enough, I suppose you see a lot.............
Quoting wxchaser97:

At least for me, the next several days should feature a warmup that brings highs close to average. After that though, temperatures are falling right back below average. I would like a nice steady, big warmup that last for more than a few days, but whatever.

You got that graphing idea from chat last night. I made one too last night, but also with major hurricanes and hurricanes included.
Now, what would that look like plotted starting from, say, the 1930s instead of the 1970s? The 1970s were a period of relative cyclical quiet in the Atlantic Basin.

Interesting warming happening across the enso regions of the Pacific. Could be the start of a developing El-Nino.



Also notice the MJO increasing across the Caribbean come April. That's interesting as well as this could trigger an early start to our Tropical Season. Invest come early May? Well see.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hows the weather by you Aussie? Getting cool by you yet?

Cool, What's that. I'm sweating my .... off here. High humidity brought down by NW'erly winds. But we have a cold front on it's way.

Here it is moving through the south of my State.



Link
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Interesting warming happening across the enso regions of the Pacific. Could be the start of a developing El-Nino.



Also notice the MJO increasing across the Caribbean come April. That's interesting as well as this could trigger an early start to our Tropical Season. Invest come early May? Well see.



Anybody's guess this far out as to what will happen this year........I am "guessing" an opposite scenario (given the warming Pacific). A real active E-Pac season, shutting down the Atlantic Season in June- July, first storm of the Atlantic season around Aug 15th, several CV storm clusters in Aug-Sept, then a few storms in October-November with a total of about 20 between August and November.

How it that for a wild guess?................... :)
Cool SST's right now but come May 1st well likely see these temps around 80. It seems no matter how cold the winter or early Spring come May those temps are always atleast 80.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Cool, What's that. I'm sweating my .... off here. High humidity brought down by NW'erly winds. But we have a cold front on it's way.

Here it is moving through the south of my State.



Link


You stay safe as I see some frequent lightning heading your way by the looks of that map you posted. MJO is very strong by you right now so you could be in for a wet ride the next several days.

Current obs...
Temp: 72.0°F
Wind: Calm
RH: 88%
Dew Point: 68.2°F
Forecast overnight low: 64°F (+3.6°F above average)
Forecast High: 90°F (+11°F above average)

This is not normal Autumn temps
Currently
One more night florida..................COLD IMPACT...
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED...AREAS OF FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Current obs...
Temp: 72.0°F
Wind: Calm
RH: 88%
Dew Point: 68.2°F
Forecast overnight low: 64°F (+3.6°F above average)
Forecast High: 90°F (+11°F above average)

This is not normal Autumn temps
Currently


WOW! 68 Dewpoint seems high for Sydney. That's FL weather;)
Looks like Oklahoma gets some Nice rains Saturday.....
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You stay safe as I see some frequent lightning heading your way by the looks of that map you posted. MJO is very strong by you right now so you could be in for a wet ride the next several days.


Yeah, we are expecting that front this afternoon or in about 14hrs. We are only forecasted to have rain, no storms but I'll have my GoPro going all day taking a photo every 30 seconds. If anything "exciting" happens, I'll produce a video out of them like I did from last Fridays Thunderstorm.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


WOW! 68 Dewpoint seems high for Sydney. That's FL weather;)

Hence why I am sweating here.
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Broke another low temp record this am..
34degrees..record of 35 in 2006..

A rather cold looking sunrise this am..

I got down to 34.3 just north of Tampa. Craziness
Quoting LargoFl:
Looks like Oklahoma gets some Nice rains Saturday.....


They need it Largo. Very dry across the MidWest.

wow look at Texas next wenesday..................
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I got down to 34.3 just north of Tampa. Craziness
yes this cold is terrible..did you get alot of frost where you are?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I got down to 34.3 just north of Tampa. Craziness


Heck, that's the same temperature as here in Scotland, and we're about 10C below the average for the time of year. I'm dreaming of a white Easter.
I think this might be the next cold front next week...
Good Morning everyone, what a bright sunny day here.. expecting to reach warm 50s today
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good Morning everyone, what a bright sunny day here.. expecting to reach warm 50s today


Good Morning Max..
Gonna reach 60 here today.. :)
you can show a girl from greenland wearing a bathing suit id still not be sold on global warming. no sign of it today here in e cen fl. low 40s
Quoting LargoFl:
I think this might be the next cold front next week...


That system next week looks potent as lots of jet energy may dive down into the NE Gulf and develope a pretty strong low and slide it across N FL.
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning Max..
Gonna reach 60 here today.. :)


:(
give me a month to get there

hi Pcola
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good Morning everyone, what a bright sunny day here.. expecting to reach warm 50s today

Morning Max. Going to get to 90°F (+11°F above average) here today.
Found this long range



lotta rain
dumps more snow SC US

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I got down to 34.3 just north of Tampa. Craziness


Crazy is right FL..
Come August I will try to remember these temps while cleaning the gutters..again..Lol.. :)
About when and where weather will rumble, accuweather



Quoting islander101010:
you can show a girl from greenland wearing a bathing suit id still not be sold on global warming no sign of it today here in e cen fl low 40s
There's no shame in admitting that you've closed off your mind to scientific evidence--and you're certainly not alone in doing so (see: "Representatives, U.S. House of")
Quoting AussieStorm:

Morning Max. Going to get to 90°F (+11°F above average) here today.

Hey Aussie, yes I will more than likely be complaining when I get those 90s (boiling 100Fs) in August/September
888. txjac
Wow, loving all the outlooks for rain in Texas!
Hopefully not severe just one of those all day nice rain drenchers. I live wher it floods so let it be a slow, gentle rain. If it's going to be fierce rain I'll be working from home ...nothing like flooded streets to battle.
Quoting pcola57:


Crazy is right FL..
Come August I will try to remember these temps while cleaning the gutters..again..Lol.. :)
pcola be a lil wary next wens/thurs the models have some big storms over you there...
Quoting txjac:
Wow, loving all the outlooks for rain in Texas!
Hopefully not severe just one of those all day nice rain drenchers. I live wher it floods so let it be a slow, gentle rain. If it's going to be fierce rain I'll be working from home ...nothing like flooded streets to battle.



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Abut when and where weather will rumble, accuweather





I guess they are thinking like me that Tornado Alley is going to be shut down for business this year.
well for sunday..................
Quoting LargoFl:
pcola be a lil wary next wens/thurs the models have some big storms over you there...


Yeah Largo I noticed that from your post#871..
Mother Natures been WEIRD this year..
TC season could be one for the books.. :(
Quoting txjac:
Wow, loving all the outlooks for rain in Texas!
Hopefully not severe just one of those all day nice rain drenchers. I live wher it floods so let it be a slow, gentle rain. If it's going to be fierce rain I'll be working from home ...nothing like flooded streets to battle.


Some very heavy rain in SE TX come early next week.
Quoting pcola57:


Yeah Largo I noticed that from your post#871..
Mother Natures been WEIRD this year..
TC season could be one for the books.. :(


I see that sad face there...and it's meaning.
same here since we could get another big swirl
:(
Quoting LargoFl:
well for sunday..................


That's in the am Largo. Expect storms come Sunday afternoon across parts of FL.
Quoting islander101010:

you can show a girl from greenland wearing a bathing suit id still not be sold on global warming no sign of it today here in e cen fl low 40s

Quoting Neapolitan:
There's no shame in admitting that you've closed off your mind to scientific evidence--and you're certainly not alone in doing so (see: "Representatives, U.S. House of")

Yeah it's not really about bathing suit clad Eskimos... It's when the insurance companies have to be nationalized due to global coastal devastation, or the desertification of the midwest farmland with the resulting lack of available food and the astronomical price increase (soylent green would be celebrated)or the mass coastal and inland destruction caused by super hurricanes fueled by increased sea temps and moisture laden atmosphere (if not caused by at least amplified by the millions of tons of CO2 produced by human industry yearly)...etc... imho
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Here is my theory about the global warming crowd!

1. Most are socialist or communist and use the Climate issues to further their agenda, and to destroy the Capitalist form of Government in the United States.
Regulations from the Government will destroy these industries, and give unfair advantages to foreign Governments.
I.E. look at the Oil industry, Russia and China are expanding their oil industry, and are becoming greater economic powers in the world. China a Sweden are drilling in the straits of the Keys right off the coast of Key West, and angle drilling for oil as we speak. The US Government forbids any US company to do this type of drilling.
As time goes on, history will repeat itself with the power of oil and natural resources, the United States of America will not be the same Country as founded.
Canada is drilling for oil and is the USA NO.1 oil trading partner.
The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.
The new world order is taking hold in the United States and in this forum.
I know the Alinsky's types in this forum, will make me look like a lier, or discredit me in some fashion,
they always do.
Along with my rant, I was a 60's protester, went to many rallies,One thing I have found through the years,
The leaders of those 60's protest have become the people who they HATED!
Freedom of choice, Government mank


No, most are truth seekers who respect science and aren't driven by irrational emotions, like the 'I don't like it, so I'm not having it' crowd.

It's the deniers who have an agenda. Many deniers who post on forums like this and on comments sections of newspapers are actually paid to do so by oil interests.

It's a common tactic of those deniers to accuse others of their own shoddy motives.
Hey Guys, Are we through with the cold in the South? Can we look forward to Spring now?. Here in NW Georgia it has been nasty with highs in the mid 30's and flurries. I can not wait for it to warm up!!!
Models do show a load of cold air spilling south after easter.



902. txjac
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Here is my theory about the global warming crowd!

1. Most are socialist or communist and use the Climate issues to further their agenda, and to destroy the Capitalist form of Government in the United States.
Regulations from the Government will destroy these industries, and give unfair advantages to foreign Governments.
I.E. look at the Oil industry, Russia and China are expanding their oil industry, and are becoming greater economic powers in the world. China a Sweden are drilling in the straits of the Keys right off the coast of Key West, and angle drilling for oil as we speak. The US Government forbids any US company to do this type of drilling.
As time goes on, history will repeat itself with the power of oil and natural resources, the United States of America will not be the same Country as founded.
Canada is drilling for oil and is the USA NO.1 oil trading partner.
The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.
The new world order is taking hold in the United States and in this forum.
I know the Alinsky's types in this forum, will make me look like a lier, or discredit me in some fashion,
they always do.
Along with my rant, I was a 60's protester, went to many rallies,One thing I have found through the years,
The leaders of those 60's protest have become the people who they HATED!
Freedom of choice, Government mank


Trunkmonkey, I plus you because you state your opinion even though I may not agree with all of it. One has to respect a person who states an opinion like you have.

I too do not like that China is drilling off the coast of Florida. With horizontal drilling techniques I'm pretty sure that our resouces are being stolen.

I miss the old US where people had drive and fire and fight in them for themselves. It's sad for me to see what I have seen in the 50 years that I have been here. I'm tired of everyone looking to the government to fix all the problems. We only have to look at the countries that took that route, with the government involved in so much, to see what a future would be like if we go this route
Why don't they do a analysis based on the storm surges and the "local" temperature of the region that the storm surge readings were taken from? Wouldn't that be more accurate to support the idea that "warming" may be linked to this?

Also, have they done any other analysis from other regions of the world to support this statement that it is linked to global warming? I don't know why they would just pick the east coast of the US. Seems coincidental to me. And which storms did they actually use for their basis?
If we are going to start on GW/CC I'll be going to bed.
Quoting Waltanater:
Why don't they do a analysis based on the storm surges and the "local" temperature of the region that the storm surge readings were taken from? Wouldn't that be more accurate to support the idea that "warming" may be linked to this?

Also, have they done any other analysis from other regions of the world to support this statement that it is linked to global warming? I don't know why they would just pick the east coast of the US. Seems coincidental to me. And which storms did they actually use for their basis?


There's little relationship between storm surge heights and the local temperature where they impact. It was cold where Sandy made landfall.

Monitoring of storm surge is more meticulous in the US than in places like SE Asia.
Wearing a sweater in the Bahamas in Late March... never happened before.
Quoting Thrawst:
Wearing a sweater in the Bahamas in Late March... never happened before.


Never mind, at least you're in the Bahamas. I'm in Scotland, where the temperature only got into the 70s on a few days last 'summer'. Just endless grey skies every day.
Quoting Thrawst:
Wearing a sweater in the Bahamas in Late March... never happened before.

Sorry for that. I took all your warmth. I'll give it back in a few days. LOL

Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry for that. I took all your warmth. I'll give it back in a few days. LOL


I just blame Phil for this...lol
good night
Quoting yonzabam:


There's little relationship between storm surge heights and the local temperature where they impact. It was cold where Sandy made landfall.

Monitoring of storm surge is more meticulous in the US than in places like SE Asia.
Yeah, they wouldn't want to disprove their biased claim of what causes GW. ;)
Quoting yonzabam:


Never mind, at least you're in the Bahamas. I'm in Scotland, where the temperature only got into the 70s on a few days last 'summer'. Just endless grey skies every day.

Isn't that just a typical summer?
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Here is my theory about the global warming crowd!

1. Most are socialist or communist and use the Climate issues to further their agenda, and to destroy the Capitalist form of Government in the United States.
Regulations from the Government will destroy these industries, and give unfair advantages to foreign Governments.
I.E. look at the Oil industry, Russia and China are expanding their oil industry, and are becoming greater economic powers in the world. China a Sweden are drilling in the straits of the Keys right off the coast of Key West, and angle drilling for oil as we speak. The US Government forbids any US company to do this type of drilling.
As time goes on, history will repeat itself with the power of oil and natural resources, the United States of America will not be the same Country as founded.
Canada is drilling for oil and is the USA NO.1 oil trading partner.
The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.
The new world order is taking hold in the United States and in this forum.
I know the Alinsky's types in this forum, will make me look like a lier, or discredit me in some fashion,
they always do.
Along with my rant, I was a 60's protester, went to many rallies,One thing I have found through the years,
The leaders of those 60's protest have become the people who they HATED!
Freedom of choice, reasonable regulations should be the way our Government operates, NOT with an agenda to destroy our economy and freedoms!
I usually avoid responding to such comments--they sorta speak for themselves, if you catch my drift--but I thought I'd address a couple of things:

1) Have you a single shred of evidence that "most" proponents of climate change theory are "socialist or communist" bent on "destroying the Capitalist form of Government in the United States". That would be like someone saying "Most deniers of climate change theory are green-eyed fascists"; it doesn't compute, you know?

2) Can you please explain what in your eyes makes a person a "socialist and communist"?

3) What, exactly, is a "Capitalist form of Government"?

4) Did you know: corporate profits are at an all-time high both in dollars and as a percentage? (I think that means the "destroy capitalism" agenda isn't going so well.)

5) a) Did you know: America is now importing less oil than it has in the last 25 years? b) Did you know that means we're producing more than ever before?

6) Did you know: despite the fact that we're producing more oil than ever, gas prices still keep rising?

7) It's true that foreign nations are drilling for oil in international waters south of Florida. But, given #4, what leads you to believe that if we drilled in even more environmentally sensitive areas than we already are (*cough* Deepwater Horizon *cough*) that it would have any discernible effect on pump prices or, as you allege, national sovereignty?

8) What exactly is an "Alinsky type"? Since you're tossing around his name like an epithet, perhaps you'd be so kind as to explain which part of Alinsky's CV bothers you so.

(For what it's worth, if you want to avoid explaining yourself and simply admit you're just repeating stuff you heard on Limbaugh, Beck, Savage, or Levin, we'll understand.)

Thanks!
Quoting Waltanater:
Yeah, they wouldn't want to disprove their biased claim of what causes GW. ;)
...and maybe they'll include Sandy next time they do this analysis as they conveniently left that one out (stopped at 2011)!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Isn't that just a typical summer?


Not really. We can usually expect at least one 10 day heatwave, with temperatures in the 80s. The odd year, it even gets into the 90s.

However, for the past 3 years, its mostly been high 50s to low 60s. I bought a bicycle 3 years ago and I've been on the road with it only about half a dozen times. Just not cycling weather, with the low temps and constant threat of rain.
Quoting txjac:


Trunkmonkey, I plus you because you state your opinion even though I may not agree with all of it. One has to respect a person who states an opinion like you have.

I too do not like that China is drilling off the coast of Florida. With horizontal drilling techniques I'm pretty sure that our resouces are being stolen.

I miss the old US where people had drive and fire and fight in them for themselves. It's sad for me to see what I have seen in the 50 years that I have been here. I'm tired of everyone looking to the government to fix all the problems. We only have to look at the countries that took that route, with the government involved in so much, to see what a future would be like if we go this route



It's a shame I can't plus both of your comments more
Quoting yonzabam:


Not really. We can usually expect at least one 10 day heatwave, with temperatures in the 80s. The odd year, it even gets into the 90s.

However, for the past 3 years, its mostly been high 50s to low 60s. I bought a bicycle 3 years ago and I've been on the road with it only about half a dozen times. Just not cycling weather, with the low temps and constant threat of rain.

I was there back in 1991, it rained most of the time. was there for 6 weeks in June/July.

My cousin has been sending me some very nice snow photo's.
Quoting Waltanater:
...and maybe they'll include Sandy next time they do this analysis as they conveniently left that one out (stopped at 2011)!
Well, since the paper was received for review last June, the authors would have had to have been very prescient--clairvoyant, even--to have included a storm which occurred more than five months into the future, don't you think?
Quoting Neapolitan:
I usually avoid responding to such comments--they sorta speak for themselves, if you catch my drift--but I thought I'd address a couple of things:

1) Have you a single shred of evidence that "most" proponents of climate change theory are "socialist or communist" bent on "destroying the Capitalist form of Government in the United States". That would be like someone saying "Most deniers of climate change theory are green-eyed fascists"; it doesn't compute, you know?

2) Can you please explain what in your eyes makes a person a "socialist and communist"?

3) What, exactly, is a "Capitalist form of Government"?

4) Did you know: corporate profits are at an all-time high both in dollars and as a percentage? (I think that means the "destroy capitalism" agenda isn't going so well.)

5) a) Did you know: America is now importing less oil than it has in the last 25 years? b) Did you know that means we're producing more than ever before?

6) Did you know: despite the fact that we're producing more oil than ever, gas prices still keep rising?

7) It's true that foreign nations are drilling for oil in international waters south of Florida. But, given #4, what leads you to believe that if we drilled in even more environmentally sensitive areas than we already are (*cough* Deepwater Horizon *cough*) that it would have any discernible effect on pump prices or, as you allege, national sovereignty?

8) What exactly is an "Alinsky type"? Since you're tossing around his name like an epithet, perhaps you'd be so kind as to explain which part of Alinsky's CV bothers you so.

(For what it's worth, if you want to avoid explaining yourself and simply admit you're just repeating stuff you heard on Limbaugh, Beck, Savage, or Levin, we'll understand.)

Thanks!

Well, that escalated quickly...
Bye Bye Waltanater
65 days til ATL Hurricane season and 50 days til EPAC season...
Quoting yonzabam:


No, most are truth seekers who respect science and aren't driven by irrational emotions, like the 'I don't like it, so I'm not having it' crowd.

It's the deniers who have an agenda. Many deniers who post on forums like this and on comments sections of newspapers are actually paid to do so by oil interests.

It's a common tactic of those deniers to accuse others of their own shoddy motives.



Wish I was getting payed

Back to schooling
How's it going to be for Easter?

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


That's insane.
Quoting yonzabam:


Never mind, at least you're in the Bahamas. I'm in Scotland, where the temperature only got into the 70s on a few days last 'summer'. Just endless grey skies every day.


Lol, when I visit Germany we usually very lucky in the summer -- 80's are typical.

It's currently 68 degrees right now in Nassau..

Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry for that. I took all your warmth. I'll give it back in a few days. LOL


I'm gonna report you for stealing a valuable object. ;)
Quoting Thrawst:


Lol, when I visit Germany we usually very lucky in the summer -- 80's are typical.

It's currently 68 degrees right now in Nassau..



I'm gonna report you for stealing a valuable object. ;)

AND PLEASE SEND IT TO FLORIDA.
(sry for caps, but seriously, freezing my but off 4 days before Easter. I mean really, what has happened to spring?!)
#912 gets my "Plus 1000".

Dr. Masters writes researched, documented, "backed-up" articles on AGW on a very regular basis, this is his website; and we're all on here talking about the weather, and then someone just comes on here out of the blue and spews --- there is no other word for it --- ignorant, firebrand diatribe.
Quoting pcola57:
Bye Bye Waltanater
Why do you say that? You going somewhere?
Quoting Waltanater:
Even if they had the information, as yonzabam implied, they would probably leave it out because it was so cold and skew their results. Anyway, this is a VERY misleading study and I don't buy it. "Hail the Fuhrer!"


I implied nothing of the sort. Your connection with reality seems rather tenuous.
Quoting yonzabam:


I implied nothing of the sort. Your connection with reality seems rather tenuous.
You're right! You're point was moot.
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday



Put me in for 15/7/2
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Here is my theory about the global warming crowd!

1. Most are socialist or communist and use the Climate issues to further their agenda, and to destroy the Capitalist form of Government in the United States.
Regulations from the Government will destroy these industries, and give unfair advantages to foreign Governments.
I.E. look at the Oil industry, Russia and China are expanding their oil industry, and are becoming greater economic powers in the world. China a Sweden are drilling in the straits of the Keys right off the coast of Key West, and angle drilling for oil as we speak. The US Government forbids any US company to do this type of drilling.
As time goes on, history will repeat itself with the power of oil and natural resources, the United States of America will not be the same Country as founded.
Canada is drilling for oil and is the USA NO.1 oil trading partner.
The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.
The new world order is taking hold in the United States and in this forum.
I know the Alinsky's types in this forum, will make me look like a lier, or discredit me in some fashion,
they always do.
Along with my rant, I was a 60's protester, went to many rallies,One thing I have found through the years,
The leaders of those 60's protest have become the people who they HATED!
Freedom of choice, reasonable regulations should be the way our Government operates, NOT with an agenda to destroy our economy and freedoms!
I'm an AGW skeptic and I take many of the same issues with your screed as I do with the more over the top postings of the AGW proponents here. First of all, I don't think most of the proponents are communist, some may be borderline socialist in their views. But trying to paint them largely as communist is little different than the AGW proponents painting most AGW skeptics posting here as being on oil company payrolls - I personally work in database marketing.

There tends to be a deep level of paranoia on internet discussion sites that the opposition is part of some kind of organized effort to counter one's pet viewpoint. Although I do not doubt that it happens from time to time - that paid posters troll site - but as a moderator on another site, I have seen such rantings against the motives of the moderators and personally know almost all are absurd. I think the paranoia against other posters are usually similarly misplaced.

I do think political views tend to color positions taken in this debate. I think there is a tendency towards catastrophism in environmentalist viewpoints, the most famous historically being Ehrlich's The Population Bomb. It doesn't mean there are not enviromental catastrophes, but there is a propensity in that movement to less-critically accept catastrophic viewpoints.

Whereas on the right, there is more of an blind spot to accept the private sector over the public, and to not trust the motives of government.

IMO neither can be trusted, it takes a lot of diligence to try and sort out what is going on, and most people are too busy to keep up with it all.
... New daily record low set today...
the low temperature this morning of -30 degrees in McGrath has set a
new daily record low temperature for March 26th. The previous low was
-25 degrees set in 1976.

Check out the bomb over the North Atlantic! Model forecasts and human analysis indicate that the pressure in millibars should be well in the 950s right now.





Nearly 50% of the nation is snow-covered versus less than 8% of the nation this time last year. http://ow.ly/jsXRz
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I know the feeling. I expressed my feelings on Climate change last week and got pulverized for it. So I guess It's best just to stick to weather and let these other stick figures argue about something that can't be proven 100%. Do I think the climate is changing yes but do I believe it's all man related no.

Oh goodness. That's a bit of a stretch.

You stated something that you probably couldn't have backed up. It was called out. Maybe I could have worded my response better (and my original post needed some slight corrections), but what you said still was not yet substantiated by scientific evidence.

It the future, one might suggest expressing some humility when something stated as fact is pointed out as not quite accurate through evidence and math. Stand corrected, move on. No one is picking on you, you didn't get "pulverized," and there really isn't a reason to act like a victim.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday

14/7/4
Quoting Waltanater:
Even if they had the information, as yonzabam implied, they would probably leave it out because it was so cold and skew their results. Anyway, this is a VERY misleading study and I don't buy it. "Hail the Fuhrer!"

Oh goodness, you're just making stuff up at this point. And you still seem to have an issue understanding the difference between local temperatures and regional/global temperatures.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday



I'll chip in :0)

Leaning towards another active Atlantic Hurricane Season. Classic Warm AMO signal with a neutral ENSO.

15-18 NS 6-8 H and 3-4 MH

Adrian
Chilly over in South Carolina. Columbia NWS:

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW A LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN TO FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE EAST. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS NEARLY IDENTICAL AND WILL STAY NEAR THE CONSENSUS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
IMO neither can be trusted
Saying "Both sides do it" is a major statement of false equivalence. In short, one side is trying to preserve the planet for future generations; the other is trying to preserve CEO bonuses and stock prices.

Not the same. Not the same at all.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
...it takes a lot of diligence to try and sort out what is going on, and most people are too busy to keep up with it all.
I don't think it takes all that much diligence; just a willingness to be intellectually honest about science, and the ability to be skeptical of claims about climate change made by those who stand to profit the most from denying that it's happening.

You say, "most people are too busy", but--as with your comments yesterday--that's a blanket statement that seriously underrates the ability of many people to engage in critical thinking. And given that a majority of Americans now see climate change as both real and anthropogenic, I'd say "most people" are definitely not "too busy"...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday



My bet (the first one on this subject, lol): 18/6/3
Thanks Max.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Here is my theory about the global warming crowd!

1. Most are socialist or communist and use the Climate issues to further their agenda, and to destroy the Capitalist form of Government in the United States.
Regulations from the Government will destroy these industries, and give unfair advantages to foreign Governments.
I.E. look at the Oil industry, Russia and China are expanding their oil industry, and are becoming greater economic powers in the world. China a Sweden are drilling in the straits of the Keys right off the coast of Key West, and angle drilling for oil as we speak. The US Government forbids any US company to do this type of drilling.
As time goes on, history will repeat itself with the power of oil and natural resources, the United States of America will not be the same Country as founded.
Canada is drilling for oil and is the USA NO.1 oil trading partner.
The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.
The new world order is taking hold in the United States and in this forum.
I know the Alinsky's types in this forum, will make me look like a lier, or discredit me in some fashion,
they always do.
Along with my rant, I was a 60's protester, went to many rallies,One thing I have found through the years,
The leaders of those 60's protest have become the people who they HATED!
Freedom of choice, reasonable regulations should be the way our Government operates, NOT with an agenda to destroy our economy and freedoms!

Be nice to have your facts straight. IEA forecasts that the U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production by 2020. In fact, U.S. oil exports are expected to exceed oil imports by the end of the year. As far as the rest of your rant, I'll leave it to the other good Wunderground readers to update you on the facts
This blog




me




see you guys later.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday



Ok, here's my guess...14/4/1.
As of 06Z, the GFS already initialized the low to be right around 960 mb. With the passage of an additional nine and a half hours, it's not hard to imagine that the low has gotten markedly stronger. And with a tighter thermal gradient along the warm front than the cold front in addition to bending back thickness around the low's center, the storm is already showing the start of transition to warm seclusion.







This site is a nice new weather toy for me, offering several panels. Maybe useful for you guys too, though it's in German (and unfortunately it's not possible to post the pics):

Worldwide temps forecast +/- compared to average (two meters above ground)
http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/GM/tdif f2m_01.htm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ok, here's my guess...14/4/1.
12/3/0. Going low.
17/7/3
Faster and faster it melts! Clear blue skies in my part of the mitten will keep this going.





Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday



Feeling nervous about this season ... posting 19-9-5
ECMWF sure makes this storm really picturesque with a very tightly wound circulation. Visible sure is going to be fun to watch over the next day or two.



Looks like I'm finally getting ready to cross post 10,000!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Saying "Both sides do it" is a major statement of false equivalence. In short, one side is trying to preserve the planet for future generations; the other is trying to preserve CEO bonuses and stock prices.

Not the same. Not the same at all.I don't think it takes all that much diligence; just a willingness to be intellectually honest about science, and the ability to be skeptical of claims about climate change made by those who stand to profit the most from denying that it's happening.

You say, "most people are too busy", but--as with your comments yesterday--that's a blanket statement that seriously underrates the ability of many people to engage in critical thinking. And given that a majority of Americans now see climate change as both real and anthropogenic, I'd say "most people" are definitely not "too busy"...
Sorry, but I am not talking moral equivalence. I am talking the rampant corruption on all sides of the political debate. So we end up with Solyndra and corrupt European carbon trading - just for starters. Because IMO your side is more concerned about intent - as long as they are trying, well, that is what matters. So what if billions of taxpayer dollars pour into the pockets of the well-connected, who in turn deliver shuttered factories?

And there are blind spots on the right as well - too many on the right give corporations the benefit of a doubt, acting like we don't need regulation of banks, oil companies and commodity exchanges. I don't see this as a problem of just one side. All sides are allowing polarization to create massive blind spots.

I'm not just a skeptic of AGW - I question the motives of just about all entities nowadays. The lack of transparency in our institutions and the legal graft that greases the skids are a cancer upon our times.

And it does take a good amount of effort to run all that down.
Jet streaks like this one sure are nice when it comes to bombgenesis. 12Z 250 mb winds three hours out (or at about right now).

I agree 1900..
Wow the Jet Stream is whipping!!

Enjoying the sunshine here in Texas for the time being, although it could be a little warmer. Really excited to see some serious rain chances on the horizon though. We sure need it!





Quoting MrNatural:

Be nice to have your facts straight. IEA forecasts that the U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production by 2020. In fact, U.S. oil exports are expected to exceed oil imports by the end of the year. As far as the rest of your rant, I'll leave it to the other good Wunderground readers to update you on the facts
Actually, what he said here had some relevance:

The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.

The strong majority of increased production has come on private lands. The Obama Administration has moved to hinder additional development of federal lands.

So if by 'peoples property of the United States' the poster meant federal lands, that would be largely accurate.

963. txjac
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Actually, what he said here had some relevance:

The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.

The strong majority of increased production has come on private lands. The Obama Administration has moved to hinder additional development of federal lands.

So if by 'peoples property of the United States' the poster meant federal lands, that would be largely accurate.



Drilling rig count is down, way down this year.
A lot of fracking going on
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
About when and where weather will rumble, accuweather



It does seem strange to see a severe weather risk map exclude all of Oklahoma and Kansas and just about all of Texas.
Quoting pcola57:
I agree 1900..
Wow the Jet Stream is whipping!!



Speedy, speedy ...
Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2012:
A year of extreme weather events in the US


Excerpt:


Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters claimed approximately 14000 lives and
resulted in economic losses of about USD 186 billion in 2012. The cost to insurers was
over USD 77 billion, making 2012 the third-highest year since 1970, when sigma began collecting natural catastrophe data.









Disclaimer: Source is insurance company Swiss Re
967. DDR
Good afternoon all
Here in Trinidad we've got our monthly rainfall(25mm) and more in just under 3 hours,crazy but i guess what is normal about the weather these days anyway.
968. DDR
Quoting barbamz:


Speedy, speedy ...

that explains the rain im getting right now,a small moisture surge...
its getting a tad warmer but the Air is still real cold..
Quoting Neapolitan:
I usually avoid responding to such comments--they sorta speak for themselves, if you catch my drift--but I thought I'd address a couple of things:

1) Have you a single shred of evidence that "most" proponents of climate change theory are "socialist or communist" bent on "destroying the Capitalist form of Government in the United States". That would be like someone saying "Most deniers of climate change theory are green-eyed fascists"; it doesn't compute, you know?

2) Can you please explain what in your eyes makes a person a "socialist and communist"?

3) What, exactly, is a "Capitalist form of Government"?

4) Did you know: corporate profits are at an all-time high both in dollars and as a percentage? (I think that means the "destroy capitalism" agenda isn't going so well.)

5) a) Did you know: America is now importing less oil than it has in the last 25 years? b) Did you know that means we're producing more than ever before?

6) Did you know: despite the fact that we're producing more oil than ever, gas prices still keep rising?

7) It's true that foreign nations are drilling for oil in international waters south of Florida. But, given #4, what leads you to believe that if we drilled in even more environmentally sensitive areas than we already are (*cough* Deepwater Horizon *cough*) that it would have any discernible effect on pump prices or, as you allege, national sovereignty?

8) What exactly is an "Alinsky type"? Since you're tossing around his name like an epithet, perhaps you'd be so kind as to explain which part of Alinsky's CV bothers you so.

(For what it's worth, if you want to avoid explaining yourself and simply admit you're just repeating stuff you heard on Limbaugh, Beck, Savage, or Levin, we'll understand.)

Thanks!



How high would Mr Chue like to see gas prices in the USA? was it 10,11, 12 dollars a gallon?
971. txjac
Okay ...everyone that is tired of the cold send it to me ...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
THURSDAY.
12Z GFS at 144 hours: With that cutoff rejoining the main flow following the cold air intrusion, this would be a great recipe for Texas snow in the dead of winter. However, the dead of winter it is not.

Quoting Slamguitar:
Faster and faster it melts! Clear blue skies in my part of the mitten will keep this going.






Snow is gone in my part of SE MI. Partly cloudy skies and below average temperatures again today.

Reading the comments today = O.O
you can almost SEE the cold air sitting on the water..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Models do show a load of cold air spilling south after easter.



About a week ago, I had a dream about large concentrated hail in a place that gets a lot of it. When I woke up, I pondered to myself, why was I dreaming about large hail in a place that gets a lot of it, especially at this time of the year.

Your map may provide a clue, however, because the boundary of expected colder than average temps. vs. higher than expected, is approximately where I saw a curious boundary line drawn in my dream. What that boundary line represented, I wasn't sure.

In my dream I saw this boundary line extending up the west side of Arkansas, and then I looked and saw great hail damage in several cities to the west and southwest of, and including the boundary line, but nothing specific by name. I saw devastating hail damage to cars, such that some of the roofs were partly caved in.

I rarely publish my weather dreams here, but this forecast map intrigued me in relation to the curious line or boundary that I saw. I also can't recall seeing this long range temperature forecast, or any other for the upcoming spring storm season, prior to this dream.

I can only recall dreaming about large hail one other time, and it was last year. That dream came true almost to perfection and in a place where large concentrated hail is rarely seen, perhaps only once a century. It was unusual, because a single storm cell damaged all four sides of people's homes, and I know that is rare. It also came from a direction atypical for severe weather in the area I dreamed about. Interestingly, the dream also pointed to the atypical direction, such than when I woke up, I couldn't believe what I had seen. I felt it had to be wrong. Yet, it happened, and directly changed the course of my life's path.

It may not mean anything, but after what happened to me last year, I won't ignore it.

Here's my map, showing roughly the boundary I saw, extending west and southwest as far as I recall seeing cities affected.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
we have to wait maybe 5-10 years to see if this extended cold continues year after year in the south before we can be sure the climate is in fact changing..1-2 years isnt enough i imagine..and IF that happens..guess i'd better by some snow tires lol
Quoting txjac:
Okay ...everyone that is tired of the cold send it to me ...


Give me a sec, got to find a big enough airtight container...
Quoting JNCali:


It's when the insurance companies have to be nationalized due to global coastal devastation,


News flash - it's not insurance companies on the hook for surge/flood damage, it's the American taxpayer - and that underwriting of risk at a price that private insurance companies wouldn't touch strongly contributed to overdevelopment of coastal areas.

Want to get people moving off barrier islands? Lobby your congresscritters to end federal flood insurance on such.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
ECMWF sure makes this storm really picturesque with a very tightly wound circulation. Visible sure is going to be fun to watch over the next day or two.





Atlantic storm. Just in from Terra/Modis. Source
Quoting LargoFl:
we have to wait maybe 5-10 years to see if this extended cold continues year after year in the south before we can be sure the climate is in fact changing..1-2 years isnt enough i imagine..and IF that happens..guess i'd better by some snow tires lol
Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

There is absolutely no known mechanism (short of a global thermonuclear war, the eruption of a supervolcano, or a strike by a giant asteroid or comet) that could possibly cause the current GHG-induced warming to reverse.

It's cold in the eastern U.S. at the moment, and it's cold in Europe. Those areas make up a small portion of the planet, which has actually been pretty toasty over the last month. Try to not confuse "regional" with "global".
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2012:
A year of extreme weather events in the US


Excerpt:


Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters claimed approximately 14000 lives and
resulted in economic losses of about USD 186 billion in 2012. The cost to insurers was
over USD 77 billion, making 2012 the third-highest year since 1970, when sigma began collecting natural catastrophe data.









Disclaimer: Source is insurance company Swiss Re


Thank you for the link!

I was really curious to see how the insurance industry views Climate Change. Here are a couple of excerpts I found interesting [with commentary of course ;) ]...

"Assuming a 10-inch rise in sea levels by 2050, Swiss Re’s proprietary storm-surge model shows that the frequency of losses like Sandy are likely to increase in the future...the model suggests that the probability of extreme flood losses occurring will almost double"
So with all of the various models (and National Geographic and other media sites hyping up the more dire predictions for ratings), they are looking at 10" in 2050 being reasonable to expect.

"So even without considering how climate change may affect future hurricane frequency or severity, the impact of sea-level rise alone is likely to be significant for both those seeking and those providing insurance protection. It is encouraging that decision makers, eg in New York City, are pro-actively investigating the implications of rising sea levels and considering available options for mitigating the potential impact of such a change."
Yep, so they see impacts to insurance coming, but it is not here yet. Also, seems to imply it time to build some flood walls, but not time to relocate Manhattan yet.

"Along the New York coastline, the observed
sea-level rise amounts to an average of 3mm per year over the last century. The globally observed retreat of glaciers and sea ice as well as thermal expansion of warmer ocean waters provide a convincing physical explanation for this observed trend. In the New York area, a region-specific subsidence of the earth’s crust adds to the overall sea-level rise.
"
OK, very reasonable language, considering all aspects.







840. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:06 AM AKDT on March 27, 2013

I graphed this last night.




You know better than that TA. You're plotting from the bottom of the AMO cycle to the top of the AMO cycle. Did you expect anything other than a positive trend for such a period? The satellite era does not cover a full AMO period, thus any such graphs are useless.

What would be far more enlightening is if you plotted a linear trend for the pre-1995 era and the post-1995 era, which was the transition point between a negative and positive phase of the AMO. This is the proper way to interpret the last 40 years of Atlantic ACE.



Edit: My y-axis should read (10^4 * kt^2 / year).
Never realized how much goes on in the old blog entry when a new one has been posted.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

There is absolutely no known mechanism (short of a global thermonuclear war, the eruption of a supervolcano, or a strike by a giant asteroid or comet) that could possibly cause the current GHG-induced warming to reverse.

It's cold in the eastern U.S. at the moment, and it's cold in Europe. Those areas make up a small portion of the planet, which has actually been pretty toasty over the last month. Try to not confuse "regional" with "global".
A sudden shift in major ocean currents could plausibly cool things down according to NASA..A Chilling Possibility
By disturbing a massive ocean current, melting Arctic sea ice might trigger colder weather in Europe and North America.

NASA


March 5, 2004: Global warming could plunge North America and Western Europe into a deep freeze, possibly within only a few decades.

That's the paradoxical scenario gaining credibility among many climate scientists. The thawing of sea ice covering the Arctic could disturb or even halt large currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Without the vast heat that these ocean currents deliver--comparable to the power generation of a million nuclear power plants--Europe's average temperature would likely drop 5 to 10°C (9 to 18°F), and parts of eastern North America would be chilled somewhat less. Such a dip in temperature would be similar to global average temperatures toward the end of the last ice age roughly 20,000 years ago.

see captionRight: Retreating Arctic ice, 1979-2003, based on data collected by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI)..
Quoting MrNatural:

Be nice to have your facts straight. IEA forecasts that the U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production by 2020. In fact, U.S. oil exports are expected to exceed oil imports by the end of the year. As far as the rest of your rant, I'll leave it to the other good Wunderground readers to update you on the facts


I won't comment on the "socialist/communist" portions of the post but I would like to point out one inaccuracy about the prohibition against "angled" drilling. If by "angle" the OP was referring to directional and/or horizontal drilling, this comment is completely false. Directional drilling is common among every oil producer, including those in the US. Horozontal drilling is one of the reasons that US oil and gas production is up, along with fracking technologies that allow production of previously non-producable product.
Quoting Levi32:


Given that I think storm development is likely to focus in the more classic deep tropical development regions this year, yes I think so.

Hi Levi...is the Gulf of Mexico any concern this year for tropical weather? Or is it just the east coast?