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Katrina--costliest hurricane ever?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:49 AM GMT on August 27, 2005

The Hurricane Hunters measured a cental pressure of 941 mb at 7:07am EDT, up 2mb from the 940 mb pressure recorded at 5:32am. The maximum winds recorded at flight level (10,000 feet) were just 106 knots, which meaning that Katrina is still a Category 3 storm, even though the pressure implies she could be a Category 4. The reason for this is that a significant increase in the areal extent of the storm has occurred in the past six hours, so Katrina needs to spin up a much larger area of winds, which will take time. It is likely that by this afternoon, the winds will "catch up" to the pressure, and Katrina will go from being a small, weak Category 3 storm to a medium-sized strong Category 3 hurricane. Recon noted that the eye diameter has shrunk to 9 nm, which is about as small as the eye can get before an eyewall replacement cycle begins. If this is the case, Katrina will probably not attain Category 4 status until eyewall replacement cycle ends and a new round of intensification begins, which would likely not happen until Sunday. A few of the NHC intensification models from last night suggested the possibility that Katrina could reach Category 5, which is not unrealistic, given the warm waters and light wind shear over the storm. Katrina still has a way to go to reach Category 5; the convection and outflow are still looking restricted on the north side of the hurricane, and this area will have to "catch up" before we can talk about Category 4 or Category 5.


Figure 1. Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico at 4:20 PM GMT on August 27, 2005.

The favorable conditions for Katrina are expected to last up until landfall, when some increase in shear may occur. But as usual, intensification forecasts are highly unreliable, and we don't really know how strong Katrina will be at landfall. The track forecast is also problematic, until Katrina makes its northward turn. She is apparently beginning to do so now, as the track has been wobbling more westward that west-southwest the past few hours.

Emergency management officials in New Orleans are no doubt waiting to see where Katrina makes her turn before ordering evacuations. However, if I lived in the city, I would evacuate NOW! The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away, so I would get out now and beat the rush. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so.

Insurers estimate that Katrina already did about $1 to $4 billion in damage (total damage is roughly double insured damage). This is a shocking number for a Category 1 hurricane, and bodes ill for the residents of New Orleans and the U.S. insurance industry if Katrina makes a direct hit on New Orleans as a Category 4 storm, which would likely cost $100 billion. But, New Orleans' amazing run of luck could well continue at the expense of Mississippi or Alabama or Florida. Like Camille in 1969, Katrina may come ashore far enough east of New Orleans to largely spare it.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Would you believe Texas? What about Cacun?
hurricane still moving west at the last pictures but jeff masters is right best to seal youre house and evacuate
Texas is not at risk, nor is Cancun. I think Mississippi is at greatest risk.

Jeff Masters
wondering what would happen if it would become a CAT 5
Hi Dr. Masters,

If I'm not mistaken, the latest dropsonde measured 941 mb and max flight level winds of 118 knots, which would be 106 knots at the surface, or 122 mph. Only 8 mph from cat 4 and as low of a pressure as Charley when he went ashore.

I feel sorry for the people of New Orleans if this hits them dead on. It is already too late for some people to evacuate, and we will end up with lake New Orleans when this is all over.

Keep up the good work and I hope that some people will listen,

Garry
The mayor of NO has decided to wait until noon to issue any evacuations.. for those who work downtown or have spouses who work downtown, we can't leave until he says go. It's so frustrating.

I don't understand the hesitation in ordering evacuations.. especially in the lower parishes.
Dr. Jeff im in Gulfport, MS what type of conditions do you think we'll see here?
If Katrina becomes a Cat. 5 the place it makes landfall will be in BIG trouble. Only think of the winds and the wall of water going inland. Thank you Dr. Masters for your information and the warning to the people of New Orleans.
do you think it will turn NE at the last minute before hit hits SE Louisiana and make landfall in MS (like ivan turned NE and spared MS and hit AL/FL)
dont count on that this arent the same conditions as IVAN had
so 147257 you think SE Louisana is gonna get hit
Hi Jeff! Thanks for the comments. Are we looking pretty good here in Destin? You know you called Dennis pretty accurately. Is this about enough time out that these predictions are pretty accurate, at least for the cone?
On the Key West long range radar loop it appears the Kat has finally started the turn to the north, which is not good news for New Orleans in my opinion.
Vancouver i think that might be a wobble when these storms get stronger they tend to wobble around but you could be right
they dont go in a straight line they tend to stair step
I live 60 mi SW of New Orleans (Terrebonne Parish). The problem with the evacuation is I-10 becomes a parking lot. There are NO hotel rooms to be found anywhere Texas/Arkansas. The FL people got the rooms. We'll probably be riding out the storm here because there's simply no place to go but Canada is looking much better to me.
Don't think just about cat 5 a cat 4 storm can do just as much major damage. It is possible that Katrina may have another trick for us, if she makes a nne turn early or if she becomes a cat 5 I agree with Dr. Masters, GET OUT NOW the cost of inaction will be higher than the cost of evacuating. Everyone from the Panama city to Just west of New Orleans should be preparing for the worst. CAT 5, I'm not saying that it will be that but hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
i think it is to soon to say that but if it goes over 1 hour still north i suppose you guys are right then
Where do you want us to go? We spent HOURS trying to find somewhere to go there's nothing left.
LAdobelady are you in Houma?
Yes GPT.
Category 5. Winds greater than 155 mph, storm surge greater than 18 feet above normal. Vulnerable: Homes and buildings of all sizes, especially roofs, windows and doors. Terrain lower than 15 feet above sea level may flood, requiring evacuations as far as 10 miles inland

and i read something about Hurricane ivan last year that there where waves on sea greater then 24 meter
Can I get that long range Key West radar loop?
yeah 147257 i read an article down here in Gulfport, MS in our local paper that ivan had 91+ ft waves in the gulf
LA Ant update.

Yesterday morning I had a bunch of ants trying to climb up my potting bench. The ant mounds are huge and pleteful all around my neighborhood. I guess the old Cajun man knew what he was talking about.
thats a bit high :( i feel sorry for the people that live lower then 30 feet
It seems as though it has taken a due north turn, at least for the time being.



Link
Anybody got a link ot a spaghetti shot? my normal site went down last night....
LAdobe, I feel you pain. I'm in biloxi and sent my wife and young kids north for Ivan. They spent 10 hours on the hwy and did not get to Jackson. Never found a place to stay. So many people were in the same situation. I think a great number of people would take their chances at home vs. getting on the gridlock of the hwy system and sleep in their cars. Should this storm follow the current track, THIS COULD END UP BEING THE DEADLIST STORM IN RECENT HISTORY. If you live in the city you'll understand where I'm coming from!!!!

God Bless us all!
Since hotel rooms will be in short supply, once the path becomes clearer, we can offer our friends the possibility of coming to our house if we are outside the area of high risk.
for you SE LA guys and gals...during Ivan, I saw I-10 turn into a strung out parking lot. Drives were taking 8-12 hrs to go from NO to BR...I made it from BR to Grand Isle and BACK within 6 hours. I took the back roads..90 to 3127 then river road on into Baton Rouge.

If the Interstates start clogging up, it may be worth a try. I don't know why the roads were so wide open when I went, but I saw peoplee sitting on there hoods on the interstate...I cruised on by at 55-60
We literally risk being stuck in traffic for this thing and it hitting. 6 million people have to be evacuated from N.O. and the surrounding parishes. Add in all the people from MS, AL and FL that have already evacuated or are doing so and there isn't any place to go. The wonderful powers that be here in LA won't open up contra flow right away.
GFS predicts a new storm in 144 hours.

Link

CMC model, Huge low pressure out to sea
Link

LADobelady There are still hotel rooms available in Jackson, MS and on up north to Memphis. Also in Baton Rouge there are some. After Ivan, there were people stranded in Grenada, MS at Walmart's parking lot because there were no rooms available anywhere so they slept in their vehicles. A wonderful church in Grenada prepared food and took it to them. The same church is preparing to do the same this time if necessary. YES there are still amazing folks that come together during our time of crisis. STAY SAFE and good luck.
Guys and Gals in the path. If you leave now, you will have plenty of time to come back if she changes directions and plenty of time to get NW away from her.
The idiots that run the state won't open contra flow until stage 3 evacs are called for. That's why the grid lock happens. I'm stage 1 and for Ivan it literally tooke me 18 hours to get to Dallas. A trip that normally takes 8.
A page with a spaghetti model http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#katrina

PRAYERS for all!
LADobe Lady:

You could come up to Tunica, Ms or Memphis, TN? The last time there was an exodus from Lousiana, there were a lot of autos with "Sportsman's Paradise" tags roaming around Memphis. It's only a 6 hour or so drive from NOLA, if the roads aren't too congested.
simply amazing, the interstates are WIDE open. No one is on them...
If people leave NOW, you will be in BR in 1.5 hours
Also, it looks as if she is starting to turn a little or at least be affected by the subtropical ridge that would turn her north.
you guys should consider yourself lucky that you can go away i live on a island it more difficult to get out of here
Thanks to everyone who is sharing their great information. As you can see I am from SC so we are not in line right now for this one but we have had our share. I have 2 daughters Charleston, SC attending college so I watch the tropics very carefully during this time of year. I have relatives in Luling, LA. I hope to talk with them today and make sure they are planning to get out. Good Luck to everyone.
What Island do you live on?
are the experts perdicting the turn to start now or later today into tonight???
I'd take U.S. 61 or U.S. 51 out of LA through the Mississippi Delta if the Interstates were farked up. Either would get one to Memphis. I'd rather eat me a BBQ sammich in Memphis while the storm goes wherever it goes, rather than whine about the traffic and stay put.
happily i live on Curacao so we dont get hit many times
The question, Is there any amount of time that you would spend in a car in exchange for life? Get out of dodge.
Looks like people in New Orleans either don't realize or don't want to believe they are in that much danger. This could turn out to be a really, really bad day for the Big Easy if people don't get out soon. If Katrina hits NO as a Cat 4 or 5, the death toll could be catastrophic.
People reading this blog, you are ahead of the curve...use your advantage. I agree with Dr Masters....MS at greatest risk...I HOPE its only a 3 at landfall.
Sending my wife and 2 little ones to her sister's in Crestview, Fl.
Have the models shifted again or I am looking at an old graphic? The models look more like Pascagoula again?Link
I dunno, I did witness the guys are on their hoods while on the interstate during ivan...I have to think if I would like to risk death or that...people were having to make their own restroom facilities...it was sad. I

cannot believe the powers that be in LA are not getting people out dodge. I am shocked at the lack of leadership.
53. SEFL
Y'all don't need an official evacuation order to leave. Sounds like now would be a good time for a weekend trip somewhere.
followoing my last pictures is the Hurricane still moving west and it maked only a slight move to north but is moving west again
I have a sickening pit in my stomach right now. Does anyone else? This is going to be EXTREMELY painful for whoever is in the path of what WILL be an extreme hurricane, probably STRONGER than Ivan. :-(
NHC is probably trying to emphasize the importance of evacing new orleans by putting the centerline on the city. If a trully unbiased forecast was out there, it would probably be biloxi or pascagoula
the hurricane is moving west again it only went a little bit north
bear with my typing, this old laptop's vowel keys stick
Well, unlike officials in NO, at least the NHC is thinking ahead.
My dad and some other family members are supposed to be arriving in New Orleans this morning from a Yucatan cruise. Their car is waiting for them at some hotel near the Quarter for the drive back to West Tennessee. He has a new cell phone, and I lost the number for it. So I can't get in touch with them. I was afraid they were going to face a mess trying to get out of there. But judging from these comments, they may just breeze (pardon the pun) right out.
Pasc, yes a "slight" shift back east. They have all zeroed in on the cent gulf coast and will now make slighter and slighter adjustments until land fall.

this thing could still go anywhere, check out this spaghetti models linkLink

THE yellow one comes over my house!!!! LOL

The models are changing again. they are all over the place. I personally agree with the A98E model but I think that Katrina may strike further east of that model. That's just me but keep the possibility open because so far, Katrina has done everything we thought it wouldn't do. EVERYONE should be preparing NOW
The last two hurricanes Dennis and Ivan were projected to hit mobile and turned East right before landfall. We were lucky! With this one, I do not like it being projected to the west of us, all I can think is that it might turn east before landfall. Why is the NHC not posting watches since it is within 48 hrs of landfall? Are they just so uncertain? With everyone saying NO now, Im worried that the people of Mobile will not prepare. What do yall think?
NO NO DON'T AGREE WITH A98 MODEL!!! That one destroys my house!!!!!
i can say 2 things we have to wait and see what it will do but then it could be too late fore some people
Pasc I think you are right. Everything i have seen this morning is showing trend towards Gautier-Pascagoula-GrandBay. Think "they" dont want to take New Orleans out of the loop for fear they wont take this storm serious?
People will start leaving today. Its still early in the day. Its not racing at them, this is moving at a snalls pace. you will find that as the day goes on, the interstates will start getting full, they have the whole weekend to leave. You have to understand, we are very laid back here in the south..lol..we take our time..lol..
I am yet to see a "trend" most models converge on the ponchatrain
This aint looking so good for us in Pascagoula which is where my wife and I work.New Orleans really does not need a storm like this.At least we had our trial run with dennis and we are all ready.We are stuck here anyway due to working for Acadian Ambulance.People will wait to the last minute the Miss. coast was spared twice people dont seem to be concerned.
maybe we can say more over 3 hours
An update of the models. They are all over the place. This is the update of some of the models. I don't know about the others.

Link

EVERYONE NEEDS TO LOOK AT THIS.
looks like the hurricane is grwoing again
same problem over here shfd739 last year ivan went almost over us people where afraid turned out to be nothing this year emily past a bit closer then ivan but people didnt do anything here
DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA 0800 UPDATE FROM STORMTOPS NWS THE SITUATION THIS MORNING STILL HAS THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS KATRINA IS NOW MOVING ON A DUE WEST HEADING AT 8MPH..THERE IS ANOTHER CHANGE ITS OBVIOUS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS WEAKENING AND THE DEEP TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE ROCKIES IS STARTING TO DIG SOUTHWARD...ONE THING WILL HAPPEN IN IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST 18-24 HOURS TO HAPPEN..THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT AND LET THE DEEP TROUGH TURN KATRINA NORTH OR THE TROUGH WILL DETERIORATE THE HIGH AS IT MOVES BACK INTO THE TEXAS COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ..YOU WILL SEE A VERY DEFINITE TURN TO THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED TURN ON SUNDAY...PEOPLE WHO LIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS TO MAKE A DECISION BY NOON TODAY ARE THEY GOING TO STAY AND HOPE LADY LUCK TAKES IT EAST OF US OR THEY GOING TO TAKE THE CHANCE AND RIDE THIS CRAZY WOMAN OUT....I HAVENT CHANGED MY THINKING THE WATER TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY WARM NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND MISS COAST 90-94 DEGREES...THIS IS GOING TO BE GOOD FOR KATRINAS EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ONE SHE TRAVELS OVER THOSE WATERS..IM STILL LOOKING FOR A CAT 5 WITH MAX WINDS UP TO 180MPH UNTIL SHE COMES ON SHORE..KATRINA IS MOVING SO SLOWLY SE LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISS COULD GET ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN AND 20 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE POSSIBILITY..OK THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY MY THINKING AT THE 10AM ADVISORY AND THIS IS MY FELLING IT WILL COVER FROM NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA TO MOBILE ALABAMA.....THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR KATRINA IN MY OPINION AS SHE NEARS A LANDFALL SOMETIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE CURRENT TRACK HAS IT GOING DIRECTLY OVER THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND EVERYONE KNOWS THATS A DOOMSDAY SCENARIO...I STILL HAVE HOPE THOUGH THAT THE WEST MOVEMENT OF KATRINA WILL FORE THE NHC TO SHIFT THERE TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARDS THE GRAND ISLE OR HOUMA ARE..THIS IS STILL BAD FOR THE CITY BUT AT LEAST IT WOULD KEEP US OUT OF THE 25 TO 30 FOOT TIDAL SURGE WE ARE GOING TO GET WHEN KATRINA COMES ON SHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER THING KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO GROW IN SIZE AND THE HURRICANE FIELD AND GALE FIELD WILL BECOME MUCH LARGER AS TIME GOES ON..REMEMBER PEOPLE THE GALES WILL REACH THE COAST BY EARY SUNDAY AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWN HILL UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN KATRINA COMES ON SHORE..ONE MORE POSSIBILITY I DONT LIKE TO THINK ABOUT IS KATRINA COULS STALL AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST CAUSING AND ADDITIONAL 15 INCHES OF RAIN ...KEEP THIS IN MIND...MY PERSONAL THINKING IS A STORM LIKE KATRINA WILL COME EVERY 100 YEARS AND NEW ORLEANS HAS DODGED THE BULLET FOR 40 YEARS NOW AND I FEEL OUT LUCK HAS RUN OUT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PEOPLE WILL MAKE A STATEMENT AT NOON FOR A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL OF SE LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISS....MY ADVICE TO EVERYONE WHO CAN LEAVE GET OUT WHILE YOU STILL CAN AND THE ONES WHO ARE DECIDING TO STAY HUNKER DOWN AND GET LOTS OF SUPPLIES FOR AT LEAST 2 WEEKS...BE PREPARED TO BE WITHOUT ELECTRICITY FOR AT LEAST 2 WEEKS...I WILL BE BACK AT 5PM AND I WILL ISSUE MY HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE DANGER AREA..I STILL HAVE HOPE THE NHC WILL SHIFT ITS TRACK A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD TOWARDS GRAND ISLE AND MAKING THEM THE BULLSEYE AND TAKING THE EYE FROM THE CITY...THIS IS A BIG MOVE FOR THE NEW ORLEANS AREA IT GETS US AWAY FROM THE TIDAL SURGE AND WHAT MAKES IT EVEN WORSE IF THE STORM COMES IN AT HIGH TIDE....WELL I WILL BE BACK AT 5PM WITH MY NEXT ADVISORY...I WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR QUESTIONS YOU CAN EMAIL ME AND I WILL BE ON THE BLOG.....THE NEXT AVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY STORMTOPS NWS AT 1700HRS...........
welcome back, stormtop :)
Other member was correct. If you are here you have an advantage to get outa town.

Get away from the path better to be in your car far away then under water or in a house with no roof or even walls.

You are in our thoughts & prayers.

You have an option the people in Punta Gorda did not have when Charlie turned.
Sorry about the Cancun crack Dr. Masters, just a bit of levity from Mobile (this time potentially on the bad side of the storm. It looks to me as the storm has started making the turn. Or am I seeing things?
ladobe lady, your ants were right...see, somebody WAS listening
ok that is a whole story
we are all gunna...no i think they went to nola centerline because that was the center of the envelope, there were some models even further west...look for an adjustment east to the nhc track at 11:00....in response to the models shift back east. btw, that is typical...the models kinda overshoot, then start to get more and more focused.

After kinda rpipping the nhc for not moving at 11:00 am yesterday, they are now right back on the top of their game. each new set of runs and each new official track will dial in closer and closer to actual pinpoint of landfall. we are less than 54 hours out from onset of rapidly deteriorating condtions and less than 60 from the time of onset of major destruction.
saymobeel which site do you use because i dont see the turn yet
LADobelady are you still here on the blog?
What we all have to understand is that If past trends from other storms are any comparison, models may shift left and then back to the east some until they settle.

Everyone should watch it right now and be prepared for the worst, but mostly all of the other storms this year made landfall to the east of the forecasted area. Just food for thought.
Stormtop thanks for that post. now in 3 sentences or less tell us what that all means. LOL
wxg, I was wondering when somebody was going to call me out on that one. I have since noticed that every model (but the one A98 that wants to destroy my house) is in very good agreement of NOLA.

Guys, Biloxi, Pasc, mobile is in danger...but NOLA is the bullseye for now. Treat as such.
it would be horrible when Katrina will be a cat and will go over a big city
Lose the caps Lenny... appreciate your input, but it's a bit much.
AND the NWS.... you are in no way affiliated with them.
i think now the best is to wait 3 hours and then discuss the new things
I am wondering how much of a role the dry patch of air to the north and west of the storm is going to affect the storm. Does anyone think that it might shift the storm east of what is now expected?
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/uswatervaporsatellite_large_animated.html
It seems the tracks are going too far west or are they getting themselves ready to move it east like what Ivan did.Miss Coast maybe Mobile where my house and family is looks like a better chance than west of NO.Think what the gas prices will do if it hits coastal louisiana,the chevron refinery in pascagoula shut down completely for ivan and should start to do the same for this one starting some time today.Unless you really trust your house leave.Trust me there are enough emergency workers that have to stay to protect everyones things.At least my stuffs still put up from dennis.
This if from Steve this morning. . .

The upper level wind analysis from about 6 hours ago shows outflow channel wind speeds of 50kts+ all
extending down to central America and out into the Pacific. However, you can also see that northerly
winds were still impinging on the northwest side of the storm. That area of dry air and northerly wind
flow is forecast by ALL the models to give way to light, and then southerly winds later Sunday as an upper
level, major TROF develops from the Great Lakes region southward towards the north central Gulf of Mexico.
The development of that TROF will initially increase the outflow in the NW quadrant of the storm, and I
expect this will lead to another major intensification phase on Sunday that will bring Katrina to CAT 4, or
even CAT 5, intensity.
HOWEVER, it may also result in some increasing shears as the storm approaches the coast
which may result in a slight weakening of the storm just prior to landfall.
holy #@@#$@

them models just moved east
hmms that is some good news not much but its better then nothing
models

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL122005
Give me the link please, weareallgunnadie.
You're are correct PascMississippi...

...I was talking to one the meteorologist at ImpactWeather as you posted that and he sees the same thing...

...As I said on yesterday, I suspect that the model consensus will shift a little to the right this evening...

...still have to see that wnw motion real soon, however...
still a large area
I wonder if its going to go east twoards Central Florida? Looks like she is recurving?
looks like they are expecting her to swing north a bit sooner? by that link at least...
I look at all the models on abc3340.com, this is a birmingham, al station just go to tropical weather and model output, it shows all the models and it it updateds them everytime they run.
They have shifted more towards the east.

Link

Updated 8:15 today
A98E is suggesting a sharp curve.... looks odd against the other model tracks
NOLA gonna dodge yet another bullet? Time will tell...
For you guys in the NOLA area..from NOLA.com:

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said he will make a decision about evacuations and other emergency procedures today about noon.

I really wish they had ordered evac for first light today...as it stands, it will take 10 to 12 hours to get to BR and another 10 to get to Alexandria (my neck of the woods).

Good luck.
Looks like WNW movement from the long range Key West RADAR.
Who is this Stormtop guy?..What a joker..probably some lonely guy at home with his computer..lol..
The models have shifted slightly eastward during the night.... over Mississippi or Alabama now which would spare Louisiana a lot of the really bad weather. It also increases the chances of a landfall in the Western Florida Panhandle.

The deciding factor will be the turn.... does it gradually turn or turn north quicker than what is expected. Although some models forecasted a WSW movement, the NHC didn't expect it to have lasted as long as it did so this Hurricane could continue to surprise us.
All I can say is that everyone needs to prepare!! Do not wait, it may be to late. IT can never hurt anyone to prepare, but it may hurt alot of people not to. BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY!!!
We will spend today packing the cars. Thankfully I filled up Thursday. Sunday after church we will head to North Mississippi. I will definitely not be trying to use I-10!
Texas is not at risk?

Then NHC should be able to drop Freeport, Galv., and Port Arthur from the strike probabilty list and map. Port Arthur and Panama City are currently showing the same percentage for 75 mile passage out 72 hours.

Me, I won't lose the nervousness until Kat does make a pronounced turn northward.
Plaqamines Parrish mandatory evac. That is the parrish that extends down to the mouth of the Mississippi.
boiredfish,

I saw Brownsville and Corpus on the strike probabilities as well.

But, like everything else, i.e. sports, politics, weather etc.....Everyone in the east thinks Texas doesn't exist.
isnt it too early to tell if it wont hit texas
You guys, if you live in New Orleans, expect a whole new lake in your area, since you are under sea level. People in Mississippi, if you remember Camille (My mother was in it), this may not be quite as bad, but if your along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, expect high winds because your getting hit by the strong side of the hurricane. Also keep this in mind, if this continues its path, then it is going to get stronger. You have deeper water near the Mississippi and Louisianna Coast, which means that Katrina will probably strengthen.
bobaloo04: While Stormtop doesn't make any friends posting that all-caps "bulletin", he has been calling for this thing to hit NOLA since before it made landfall in FL. Check the threads going back a few days.

But it's nice to see the evacs are starting to happen.
STORMTOPS WEATHER UPDATE ISSUED AT 830AM CDT FOR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISS AREA..THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES THIS MORNING KATRINA IS NOW MOVING ON A DUE WEST HEADING AND SHE HAS ALSO GAINED STRENGTH WHICH WE ALL KNOW THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS..ALSO THE THE NHC HAS SHIFTED THE BULLSEYE DIRECTLY OVER THE CITY WHICH IS THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO WE HAVE ALL DREAMED ABOUT...THERE ARE TWO THINGS THAT CAN TAKE PLACE.. THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEEP TROUGH THAT IS TRYING TO DIG SOUTHWARD TO GRASP KATRINA..IF THE HIGH MOVES OUT IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEP TROUGH TO COME DOWN AND PULL KATRINA TO THE NORTHWEST...IF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE OUT THE DEEP TROUGH WILL COME DOWN AND ERODE THE HIGH AND THEN THE TURN TO THE NW WILL TAKE PLACE..THIS WILL TAKE AT LEAST 18 TO 24 HOURS...MY PERSONAL FEELING IS THE NHC WILL SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE WEST OVER GRAND ISLE TAKING THE BULLSEYE THERE AND SPARING THE CITY AT LEAST THE 25 TO 30 FOOT TIDAL SURGE WE WOULD GET IF THE TRACK STAYS THE SAME...AS OF 10 AM IM ISSUING A HURRICANE WATCH FROM NEW IBERIA TO MOBILE ALABAMA...TO ME THAT IS THE GREATEST THREAT FROM KATRINA AS SHE MOVES INLAND SOMETIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS HAVING AND EMERGENCY MEETING RIGHT NOW AND MY FEELING IS FOR EVERYONE THAT CAN GET OUT DO IT WHEN THE OFFICIALS TELL YOU TO GO..IF YOU ARE GOING TO STAY AND RIDE THIS BAD LADY OUT YOU NEED TO GET ALL YOUR SUPPIES AND BE PREPARED TO LOSE ELECTRICITY FOR ABOUT 2 WEEKS AND ALSO FILL UP WATER BOTTLES THE BATH TUB BEFORE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL...THIS IS A CAMILLE TYPE STORM ON A BETSY PATH...WHAT I MEAN BY THAT KATRINA IS STRENGTHING AND GROWING IN SIZE AT THE SAME TIME..SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL START TO EXPERIENCE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL UNTIL KATRINA CROSSES THE COAST SOMEWHERE WEST OF NEW ORLEANS...I HAVE NOT CHANGED MY FEELINGS ABOUT THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA I FEEL WITH THE WATER TEMPS AT 90 TO 94 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND MISS KATRINA WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH SUSTAINING WINDS OF 180MPH BY THE TIME SHE MAKES HER LANDFALL SOMEWHERE WEST OF GRAND ISLE...REMEMBER PEOPLE THE STORM WILL BE AFFECTING US LONG BEFORE SHE MAKES LANDFALL..YOU NEED TO GET OUT WHILE THE GOING IS GOOD CONTRA-FLOW WILL BE IN AFFECT LATER TODAY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PLAQAMINES PARISH AT 9AM....THIS WILL CARRY ALL OF SE LOUISIANA BY NOON TODAY..LIKE I SAID IF YOU DECIDE TO STAY YOU KNOW WHAT YOU HAVE TO DO..KATRINA NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125MPH AND IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN..ALSO KATRINA IS STILL MOVING ON THAT NW HEADING AND THE SHEAR IN THE GULF IS NILL AND THERE IS NO DRY AIR KEEPING HER FROM STRENGTHING TO A CAT 5...I WILL BE BACK WITH MORE INFO WHEN I ISSUE MY HURRICANE WARNING AREA WHICH WILL BE THE SERIOUS THREAT FROM KATRINA...LETS HOPE THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST A LITTLE LIKE IM THINKING TOWARDS THE HOUMA AREA GETTING THE BULLSEYE OFF THE CITY AND KEEPING US OUT OF THE 25 TO 30 FOOT TIDAL SURGE...ONE MORE THING I AM WORRIED ABOUT KATRINA STALLING OVER SE LOUISIANA AS IT GETS CLOSER TO LAND..THIS IN ITSELF COULD BE A MAJOR CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOE NEW ORLEANS IF THIS HAPPENS ..IT COULD MEAN AND ADDITIONAL 15 INCHES OF RAIN...OK THATS THE UPDATE ILL BE BACK AT 5PM...THIS HAS BEEN AND UPDATE FROM THE STORMTOP NWS AT 0900CDT.......................
lol......you got that right.

I really don't think we have to worry about this storm, but it has defied a lot of the models thusfar, and it still is pretty much moving to the west. Assuming it moves west for another 18 or 24 hours, that's another 150 miles to the west, then a gradual vs. sharp turn wnw, then nw, then finally n or nne, that would put it closer to home than I would like to have it.
STORMTOP, you were doing so well. What happened?

People are beginning to respect you because of what you have to say, so please, if you must use all one case, use lower case. And try to make your posts sound less official.

Actually, I would value your take on a storm more than the NWS's anyway. Forecasting is an art, and when you try to make it a science you lose accuracy.

It is in the little things, like deciding whether you think a bit of dry air will act as an impediment to development, understanding the importance of size to a hurricane and how it behaves, being able to guess what the steering systems will do, that we have the advantage over computers and models. Models do just what we tell them to. They won't ignore things that are in a particular case, irrelevant.

So be proud you can read a hurricane, put your thoughts up as your thoughts, and if you are accurate even sometimes at long range, people will listen.
again a big story same isnt it?
AS OF 10 AM IM ISSUING A HURRICANE WATCH FROM NEW IBERIA TO MOBILE ALABAMA...
============================================================

You're issuing?

There is something very wrong with you.
ok i am up evey one. she is in a eye wall replacement cycle. expect to see rapid intensification resum in 3 hrs
Looks like that poor old lighthouse on the Chandeleur Island Chain will be completely gone now (Still under water from Georges)
all of you guys who are questioning the yrack. i have a high confidenct in a landfall very close to no. i expect winds to be 145-170mph at landfall
If ever a post was idicative of how difficult it must be to predict intensity, this is it...

============================================
The development of that TROF will initially increase the outflow in the NW quadrant of the storm, and I
expect this will lead to another major intensification phase on Sunday that will bring Katrina to CAT 4, or
even CAT 5, intensity. HOWEVER, it may also result in some increasing shears as the storm approaches the coast
which may result in a slight weakening of the storm just prior to landfall.
====================================================

One thing occurs and it might cause it to go up. No wait, it might cause it to go down. This is the kind of stuff that I enjoy about storms.
It's approaching 85 still moving due west, and not supposed to clear 90? Better start a turn pretty soon...
whats the usual error curve with these storm track models?
131. IKE
Stormtop....PLEASE LOSE THE CAPS! You're full of it. Quit trying to be like an official with the NHC.

I figured they would shift the tracks back to the east. Looks like NO might...hopefully for them, be on the west side of this monster...which is good news.

This thing could hit anywhere from LA to FL. No one knows for sure.
so if u want to make a predictiction do oit. lets see how right u are. i see her well on track with almost all the models. same thing i said last night to all the people complaining of a sw motion. she wilkl turn rapidly to the north as seen in all models. but belive what u want. all i know is comme monday , remeebr where i said she was going.
Good morning Lefty! Welcome back. I hope you got plenty of sleep last night. I slept with my laptop on the bed and kept checking the reports through the night. I don't feel so hot this morning. But here I am waiting to hear what you have to say.
the error depends on how divergent the models are. all major model are in a concensus so i'd have to say 100 miles is a good error but its probly less. here is a link so you can see all the models are in concensus

Link
It is already moving WNW.
yeah i got 3 hrs lol i be alright
most up to date models

Link
I agree with PascMississippi...it does look like the models have shifted east towards MS.

I live in Denham Springs...right next to Baton Rouge. Several of us are going to open our homes to our neighbors to the east...because there's no way that they will get a hotel unless they do LEAVE NOW!

Good luck!
I just checked the wind map. This storm is much wider than it was last night. It looks like it will be a BIG storm.
Central La. coast.......south of Lafayette.
IT IS ALREADY MOVING WNW.
yeah jax, i tried to tell them that last night. she will be a monster
IT IS ALREADY MOVING WNW.
Hey Lefty! I havn't been on this blog much, so where is it exactly that you think she's going? And are you really STORMTOPS without the Napoleonic Complex?
It's no closer to 25 than it was 12 hours ago.
IT IS ALREADY MOVING WNW.
PASC GIRL IT MEANS TO GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE ..ITS NOT TIME TO HAVE A HURRICANE PARTY...WE ARE DEALING WITH A HURRICANE YOU WILL SEE EVERY 100 YEARS...KATRINA WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS.....
no i am notr stormtop. while i cannot pick an exact point only god knows that. i think any where from the miss,al border to la is a good range. most likely close to no but maybe a little east which is good new. worst case scenerio for no would for the center come in to her west
IT IS ALREADY MOVING WNW.
It looks west to me.
StormTop, give it up, you sound like a fool issuing your own hurricane watch.
Our weather is not saying - can anyone tell me what is happening to that High?
the models run it right up our backdoor which is not good.from what i see people arent taking to seriously around here in mobile.
movement is to the west. she will wobble specially during her lulls like right now where she is replacing her eye and eye wall. u should see a more sign turn wnw or even nw as the day progresses. she just started her turn w about 4 or 5 hrs ago so u will not seeeee much change in latt specially since she is moving really slow and she is moving due west
Well HK, thank you for the acnowledgement. Look at the Key West long range RADAR and Intellicast latest visual loop and there is definitely a northern component. Where are you looking?
156. snack
icebear: I think that the curvature models have performed badly this season, they did a rotten job except for the BAMM because the systems were so shallow, this hurricane has lots of convection but has persisted with a wsw motion just to spite the forecast. The first models of Katrina as it approached Miami guessed the storm to head towards appalachicola bay, then moved 200 miles west. The storm does seem to be headed just slightly s of w but not as much as yesterday. But however these models have been much more reliable than the outlier posting here called CAPS-ST. he may be right on occasion, but like a broken clock, only twice a day.
yeah, last night i think lefty said probably a few luls and a wobble or two, if i read him right that intensification would likely occur during those....
158. IKE
Stormtop and his hurricane watch...LMAO
Lefty,

Movement is not to the West (270), it is North of West and it is not just a jog.
Hey, anyone on here still saying for Florida to still be concerned is waaay off. They are currently stationing thousands apon thousands of emergengy vehicles, Gas Tankers, Power Trucks, Water Trucks, Huge building sized generators, Pump Trucks in Florida. (local news). Looks like it's going to be pretty bad but not for Florida. The good thing is the Florida will be there right away to help those of you unlucky enough to be in her path.

Everyone from NO to Miss..Do exactly what your local emergency management asks you to.
I would leave. That is just me. When you lose power for days just remember NO AC. NO TV. NO COLD DRINKS. NO ICE. NO FAST FOOD. NO GROCERY STORES. NO GAS STATIONS. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY NO TV. I really recommend a hotel that will have AC and TV. Just ride it out there and if your home was lucky enough to still have power than great you go home.
Let me say - I was in Gulfport during Camile. I was young but still remember running from our home to a n/bor's boom shelter. It was a horrible night. Lost a dear friend and had several friends lose a parent! Do what they say - don't try to be brave. ALWAYS PLAN FOR THE WORSE AND PRAY FOR THE BEST!!!!
I honestly believe that the models overcompensated last night on that move west... reminds me a lot of Dennis and a lot of how they did with Ivan. Seems that whenever it makes a mistake such as the WSW movement that it pushes too hard to its complement. I really think this maybe a MS\AL hurricane or another landfall similar to Ivan in Gulf Shores
lefty, i hope you and the comp. models are right. don't need that thing over here.

did any of y'all hear about the illegals in arizona that took down a border patrol helicopter by throwing rocks at it?
the models had no problem forcasting irenes curve. since recon data was flown in to the upper atmosphere the models have shifted only slightly and are all in a concensus. after all of this u guys continue to not face facts. also prior to the first landfall all the models were divergent and some took her sw like she went
I KNOW LEFTY BUT IF IT CAME IN WEST WE WOULD NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE 25 TO 30 FOOT TIDAL SURGE....IT WOULD KEEP US AWAY FROM THE EYE..WE WOULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OF THE STORM BUT WE WOULD FAIR OUT MUCH BETTER IF SHE CAME IN WEST OF US INSTEAD A DIRECT HIT...YOU SEE WHAT IM TRYING TO SAY....IM WORRIED ABOUT A REAL STALL OFF THE COAST ..THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL 15 INCHES ONF RAIN ON TOP OF WHAT WE WILL GET...EVERYONE HOPE THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST OR BETTER YET EAST SO WE WOULD BE ON THE WEAK SIDE OF THE STORM..LOOKING AT THE STORM THIS MORNING I DONT THINK IT HAS A WEAK SIDE LEFTY...IT LOOKS PRETTY SOLID...I JUST GOT A REPORT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 125MPH AND STILL STRENGTHING...
LA gov. on CNN advised people in low lying areas to get out. Also said a mandatory evac. won't be called until "much" later.
167. IKE
If it hits at MS...FL..the panhandle..is on the east side and will get rain and wind.
we willknow alot more on movment at the 11 advisory as well since the next recon should be there shortly. also good advice recon. could have not said it anyother way
169. IKE
Give us your source for winds up to 125 mph STORMTOP.
we will see stomrt, i looked at a experimental forcast did with the help of nhc and 3 universities that should the most destruction would happen from a landfall just west of a direct hit, but either way, there will be lots of destruction no mater where she its period
StormTop, what "report" would that be? What do you know that the NHC doesn't? I'm willing to bet its a report made up in your deranged head.
ST Beranrds "strongly recomends" evac, not mandatory. Plaqamines mandatory. Jefferson and Orleans are waiting for the SE parrishes to get a head start, per the plan. They are getting a late start, but are moving.

Cantore is in S Miss. It is significant local news, LOL.
http://www.sunherald.com/mld/thesunherald/12489699.htm

MIss coastal counties meeting at 10:30 cdt... I expect they will appropriately react t oteh 10:00 cdt warning.

Ok back to my wood work.
I still have a very bad feeling about this one...New Orleans better watch Katrina very closely...if I lived there, I'd be outta there TODAY.
Ike, do you ever get the feeling this Stormtop character might just be a teenager who just likes to get a reaction out of people?
wxgssr: Cantore in in MS??? Well, okay then...that's where Katrina is gonna hit...heh heh...
Maybe she will clean out all of those casinos and reverse the fifteen year Mississippi Gulf Coast Uglification Project
For those who don't know: If Jim Cantore shows up in your town, you are DOOMED!!! :-)
178. IKE
Stormtop is entitled to an opinion...but trying to look like some official forecaster. His guess is no better than the next persons. If he would just talk...state his opinion and lose the caps!
Exactly, IKE, its the trying to look like an official forcast thats really weird. I mean, what normal person does that?
Well he DID issue a hurricane watch.
Stormtop u should evac to Vegas, there u can make some money at least with lucky prognostications.
I realize all eyes are on Katrina now but what is your take on the other 2 systems in the Atlantic? Do any of the models pick up on these?
I heard that NO will start contraflow at 4pm
'bout damn time...
winds are now 125mph with gusts to 140 ...it will come out in the next adv..my source a meteoroligist i just had a fax from...wait for the 10am adv katrina is strengthing and the pressuer is deepening lefty...
LOL Steve! He's ten miles from me
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING... AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST
MSCane, they are opening contraflow at 4 pm.. they're evacing the low lying parishes, and jefferson and orleans parish will likely evac at noon during their press conference. All I know is I'm outta here today.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATRINA... LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 165
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING... AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$
If NO starts contraflow at 4pm, then it will take about 24 to 30 hours (judging from previous evac orders) to get to Central LA or MS...it's going to be a mess...I wouldn't wait for contraflow to start to leave...I would try to leave NO by noon at the latest
well on the 2 systems, the one to the north will probly develop into a named storm but is about to get wisked out to sea.

the second is a little more opf a threat. sher is forcasted by a couple of models to develop into a significant cyclone. the problem is it appears she will tunr north late in the forcast period but she will need to be watch. and her preliminary track would be towards the se us coast
Didn't happen StormT - still 115
wish I could leave. My husband is working right now and can't leave until orleans orders evacs... he's outside levee protection at work and can't do a whole lot unless the boss says so.
Look at this

Link
Hi all -

newest update from NWS

HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1500Z SAT AUG 27 2005

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS DISCONTINUED FROM KEY WEST EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
196. IKE
Hey stormtop....where's your 125 mph winds? It didn't happen!
Hi. Could someone please tell my boyfriend that there is no reason to evacuate Hattiesburg, MS? He's trying to get us to go to Jackson if this thing hits the MS Coast, and I think we'll be fine right here. Thoughts?
I'm new to this, but here's a link I use. It is out of Galveston, TX.

Link
199. wxfan
The wobble early this morning did move the system to the North a bit. It is following the NHC forecast path EXACTLY at the moment.

Outflow is improving in the NE quadrant, too.
wxgssr is right...they have to evacuate Plaquemine Parish before they issue a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans.

I believe they are hoping people will begin to evacuate on their own. I realize it is WAY to soon to predict that it will hit N.O. but why risk it? I agree with what Biloxigal had to say...I've never in my life been in a major hurricane but if I were in the path of this hurricane I would take her advice since she has been there...done that!
they upped the forcasted winds closer to 150 now. she will probly be forcasted higher. the next recon is inbound and we should have a vortex message soon and the pressure might be lower. the 11 advospry was estimated. just thought u guys should know that
The pressure alone will tell you that the winds could very well be 125MPH AND STILL STRENGTHING like ST says. The pressure is below 945 it is 125 or more. mk
nolamom...even if you can't leave until evac, at least you won't be in NO when she comes on shore...I won't be fun to get out, but it will be OK
Stay safe, nolamommy...this is gonna be a really bad one...
leave. why test faith. prepare fpr the worst pray for the best. so please if u can leave to please leave
LATigerChic.. I wanted to leave last night... I've rode through east coast hurricanes, but there is no way I'll ride out a 3/4/5 in nola.. no way.

tampasteve.. yep.. it's gonna be. -sigh-
if the storm is steadily gaining mass, it will take a little while for the winds to catch up to the pressure
from the nhc disscussion

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR
AFFECTS THE STORM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND
THE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME
POINT BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT KATRINA STARTING AT 48 HR...AND AS
ALWAYS HAPPENS IN HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY ADDITIONAL CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR
209. IKE
The winds might be 125...but stormtop said they would be 125 at the next advisory...and they weren't.
Link

Is this the last run of the GFDL Lefty??
Hey, Lyon of Long Beach, are you Rick's dad/brother?
recon link did not work
I don't blame you for wanting out last night...and for the record, I strongly advocate evacuating NO...I've experienced a few hurricanes in my life, none of which have concerned me like this one...stay safe
lefty...150 at landfall???
215. flick
Nolamommy and others:

Evacuation: Head to Jackson, MS. The Red Cross opens a shelter there, probably still at the fairgrounds. If you can't find it, stop at Tourist Information as you come into Jackson from New Orleans.

They should have the shelter open pretty early, as people along the coast will evacuate early, from Grand Isle and such.

If you go to the shelter, it'll cost you nothing but the gas to get there. We evac'd one year, '92 iirc. Red Cross was GREAT. They house you, feed you, etc. They got in big screen TVs, books, games for the kids.

Take some towels, washrags, change of clothes and bedding, pillows with you. Don't forget to pack your important paperwork (birth certificates, etc.). Can't take pets in the shelter, but the local humane society was helping evacuees with that, when I went. Also, there was a vet with a big kennel and reasonable rates, not far from the fairgrounds.

Save your money. If you're going to leave town, go to the RC shelter - it's for people like you and me, who can't afford Days Inn ;-).
i don't know recon. i use a text model as well as a ftp site but the ftp site takes for ever to uplaod the new models


yes 150 at landfall is the forcast. it must be noted the forcast has error of 20kts and the percentage is 50 percent towards that error being in favor of a stronger storm. thats why they made the comment in the disscussion that she could very well be a cat 5 of winds of 156+ mph

for any newb if u want to figure out kts to mph multiply it by 1.15 to convert just some tips if u reead some of the advisories
that 150 is mph so its about 125kts
Try here..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/katrina12l/fcst/archive/05082612/1.html
deadman, I'm one of them. Rick's in Idaho.
Thanks for the conversion factor Lefty - I didn't know exactly what it was...

I am on the northeast FL coast and am enjoying all that I am learning from this blog - it will be helpful when the next one heads this way...
Looks like the models have the remnents headed over my house again. Just what we need, Ivan Part 2.
thanks recon. yes thats the 8am run the newest
Well, hi, there, Lyon. This is Tandy--used to date Rick many years ago. Fancy meeting you here.
No, that is the 26 Aug 1200Z GFDL run.
here is a great loop of katrina. set the speed to fast and witness the hand of god

Link
Whoa! Talk about a trip down Amnesia Lane.
lol yeah it is. maybe i should get more sleep. lol i thought today was the 26th my bad
Here is my image of the morning. The core has doubled. The eye is not far behind. Link

CAT 4 with out a doubt. Only getting bigger.
looks like its starting to make that turn. does this mean trouble for ms/al line
Google has a neat conversion feature...just type in "XXX mph in knots" or "XXX knots in mph" for the conversion.
rightnow i think the nhc forcast is a good bet based on model data.
cool wating for the next one which should be out shortly
must note the 11am forcast track was moved about 40 miles west and has no receiveing a directn hit
Lefty do you agree that this hurricane is going to strike to two worst possible targets in the US within 1 weeks time? or is there someplace else that would be worse than this.
recon, just wait till after she finishes this eye wall cycle. she will be somuch stronger i think a mid cat 4 by than. just so some of u guys know a 940mb pressure usely equates to 130-135mph windspeeds so her winds are well behind her pressure so its a safe bet to assume she will be a cat 4 in the next 12 hrs
Posted By: wxgssr at 12:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2005.
Sending my wife and 2 little ones to her sister's in Crestview, Fl.


Don't. I'm an Amateur Radio operator, part of our local ARES (Amateur Radio Disaster Services; I know, I know. (http://www.ares.org)) group.

We are at this point undecided as to whether our services will be needed, which means we are by no means out of the woods yet.

Send then northwest if you possibly can. Then again, I don't know your conditions, so Crestview could beat the heck out of being 15 feet below sea level...

thoughts and prayers are with everyone. stay safe, stay dry.

Sean KI4IIB - Fort Walton Beach, FL
I mean with Miami have such a huge population living right on the water and NO with its meriad of problems.
i can not see anything worst than this. this is the hand of god on earth
A direct strike of a CAT 3 or greater on Long Island or Chesapeke Bay would suck pretty bad
yeah the bay situation, iliv in va near the bay, would be bad but a direct hit to long island would be close to the destruction we might see in no, but i think with no being below see level and with all the oil platfroms and refineries, the no hit will affect all of us. expect gas prices to shoot up atalest 30-50 cents and crude oil prices in the 75-80 a barrel
Lefty I dont think it was to the west, definitely back to the east as suggested by all the recent models tested this morning
244. Selu
Lefty, actually, the 5AM forecast had the cone center line passing a bit to the west of where it is now. About 15 minutes after you signed off last night, NHC updated its track. The latest shift was back to the east, about 10 miles.
and thats just the short term. the long term affects on gas and oil prices could be alot worse
Hey People...Still at it I see. Seems to only get worse. I am not close to a TV. Is anyone doing "wall to wall" coverage yet?
oh thanks yeah i mist the 5am track i was really tired lol. most of you might know that since the first landfall i have been in here atlest 18-19 hrs a day. i don't think i will get any sleep till wensday if than at all. i also must say i even fream about storms when tracking them so sleep is notlike sleep at all lol
lefty: Just for comparison, Charley had a central pressure of 942 mb at landfall, and it had winds of at least 150 mph with gusts to 174 mph recorded in Punta Gorda. Katrina could be one for the record books if she hits at that strength.
lefty all these people laughing at me now what they thing of my cat 5 over the pass christian area....lefty i think why they didnt up the winds yet they are waiting for recon to go back in then they will hit the people with the bad news..it could be 130 when they get back in there..the wind hasnt caught up with the pressure yet...i t will by the next advisory...look for the watch to extend more eastward to pensecola at 5pm...
no no national covergae wall to wall yet but i expect when she hits cat 4 and makes a more distinct northward move we will see that all change
Alright, guess it's time for my prediction as of 11 am using the models as I see it today.

First of all, within the past couple of hours, Katrina has definitely developed a more slightly north of due west component to her track.

I expect landfall somewhere around Pensacola on Monday afternoon. This will keep New Orleans in the clear from a lot of the bad weather and allow them to have an off shore wind which will keep the Storm Surge from being too bad along the coast. I am fairly confident in this forecast.

The NHC forecast path is clearly on the left side of the model consesus now as the models, GFS and others, have shifted towards a landfall near Mississippi to Pensacola this morning.

My final prediction will be issued tonight, after the 00Z model runs.

Note: I do NOT expect much differences in the model runs today. I have high confidence in a landfall between eastern most Louisiana and the Western most Florida Panhandle.
Yeah to really affect the region or the nation as a whole this senerio is the worst not to throw Miss or ala under the bus but you need to take one for the team. Becuase where it is now would effect us all much worse.
253. Selu
deadman, if Katrina hits the Mississippi Gulf Coast as a Category 4, you can kiss your power goodbye for a week.

Georges hit USM in 1998. Campus closed down a week or two. Trees were down ALL OVER CAMPUS, all over town. If Katrina comes in at New Orleans, you'll be on the east side of the storm, the worst side.

Going to Jackson is a good idea, if you have relatives there. Hotels in Jackson have been booked solid since yesterday.
stormt i feel ya. the problem is you try to be like the nhc and u don't provide links to people so they can see what your saying and some people who are not deep in this like u an i they need to see it from the credible sources first. me and recon understand thst yes thye probly are that strong but some people take that as you nit knowing anything. try not making so many bold statements or ignore those who criticise you man. but yes u predicted this 2 weks ago so for that i take my hat off to u
When is high tide in the Mississippi delta area on Monday?
new orleans channel 6 wdsu.com is doing constant coverage.. mayor nagin said the winds were 145.. but I don't know how accurate that is.
You know how the media is...I'm sure they are ready to JUMPso they can give us the same (for the most part) useless information over and over. By the way Lefty...that was funny. I logged 14 hours on this topic yesterday...and dreamed about it all night. I feel like I never left.
josh thats a very reasonable predciction and i csn agree with that based on the data. i try to just call for a range cause a exact point has only a 5 percent chance of being right. the nh forcast has that same percentage
259. Selu
It's not going in at Pensacola. It's not even going to be Mobile. It's going to be New Orleans, possibly the far west Mississippi Gulf Coast.
yeah my wife is like. did u leave that chair today? and i am like i made a sandwich lol
Seul: I was here in Georges, and I remember it well. Leaving wouldn't have helped me any then, unsure about now. BTW, my little house weathered that fine, but do you remember the freak straight-line winds we had several years ago that got all the trees that Georges didn't? That put a tree in my house! :(
Selu: I have a terrible feeling you are right...I think this is gonna be the "Big One" that NO has been hoping would never come. I really hope we are both wrong.
264. IKE
stormtop...thanks for losing the caps!

There is hope for you!
STORMTOP, a blind squirrel can find a nut sometimes... I am leaning to what Josh just said about shifting it east, as I said earlier the models tend to overestimate the western location as seen in Ivan and Dennis. Thats why I think the more eastern landfall.
Also UFGator, a CAT4 hurricane coming from the SW into Mobile bay is another worst case scenario for Mobile. While it is not NOLA, the whole area is practically marshland.
My wife just left and went to her parents down the street. It's crazy. She's acting as if this is all I have done for days.........
Oops, sorry--Selu, not Suel!

I knew the MS coast was in trouble when I heard Cantore is there.
this will not be geroges. and damage is expenetionaly worse not just a litle but 10 to 20 times as you go up and the forcast is for a cat 4 and a strong one at that. that forcast is conservative in mymind and this is a storm that even i wouldn't ride out andi am crazy about chasing them. u need to leave. wake up and realise this is going to be like andrew and camille. this will be one other storms are messured against
269. Selu
Yes, I remember it well. I was sitting on the bridge over I-59 when that came through. The only time in my life I thought I would die. I called my mom and said to her my final farewell. My car was literally bouncing side to side. I have never experienced anything like that. Hope I never do again.
has anyone considered that cantore is only in ms because it's not going to be safe enough in nola for him?
271. IKE
I tend to agree with others that it will go in east of NO...how far east is debatable.
Thanks leftyy.... When a system like this recurves, it's hard to predict an exact landfall point. The reason is simple? Probably 6 to 12 hours before reaching the coast, this system "MAY" start to make the NNE to NE turn that a lot of models are projecting just before landfall. That could make a huge difference in the exact landfall point given the way the Gulf Coast is made.

That is why a zone between Eastern Louisiana (just east of New Orleans) to Pensacola, Florida would be my best bet. If these models move a little west or a little more east today, that may bring in Central Louisiana into play or even the Central Panhandle, let's say Panama City, back into play.

But I am going off of the data as I see it now and that is probably a Mississippi or Alabama landfall.
273. Selu
There is nowhere from the levee south that he COULD go. Yes, I think that's why he's in Mississippi. Plus, he can go to Treasure Bay on breaks and waste some quarters. :D
yeah thats what i told my wife.normally u would see peopleall over the cone but they have stayed out of la cause they do not want to be close to the eye if thats where she is going
yeah josh. thats pretty much my feeling about the data as i see it to. i can commend u on a job looking at the data and making a educated forcast
276. Selu
Lefty, I agree. This one is going to be much more destructive than Georges.

I believe it was greater than Cat1 when it hit Miami...already 1 billion dollars worth of damage! That's more than a Cat 1.

And I believe we are looking at a strong Cat 4, possibly a weak Cat 5, by Monday morning. With NOLA in the crosshairs.
Thanks you guys for all the info! Its a great help as we prepare for another poss. hit (on the bay N of Destin) - your blog is much more fun than the TWC More laughs & info!
BTW, I agree, if you think you are going to be in the path of this storm, you need to leave or go a little inland.

This system will be a strong Cat. 3 or 4 at landfall, moving quicker as it approaches the coastline. Thus, strong winds and rains will move far inland. This will NOT just be a coastal event.

If you think you will be especially on the right front side of the storm, then you need to think of leaving tonight or tomorrow. If it doesn't hit your area, thank the lucky stars.
thast why i say if ur in the cone do not test fate. just leave, yes it will be an inconveience but by time u realise how bad it is u will not be able toleave or get any help. if u have somewhere u can go doit. life is to preciuse to be ignorant on these things
During this eyewall replacement cycle it will appear to start moving N or S. I would wait untill the cycle is complete. The convection is still bursting over the center of circulation pretty rapidly and soon a much bigger, stronger eye will appear. It will then shrink in on itself and perform another eyewall replacement cycle. The winds wrap up so tightly they start to cut into eachother, therfore blowing the eyewall open.
I live just north of Interstate 10 in the Gulfport, MS area. If you get on the internet and try to find hotel/motel rooms it appears that they might be full, but if you are actually on the road, there will likely be rooms available. That was the case for the last two evacuations. Head for towns such as Laurel, those small towns west of Hattiesburg.
nice josh though i think ur underestimating the gulf loop temps and the perfect enviroemnt for the next 48 hrs until landfall. they said last night in the disscussion, when she turns north she will hit the gulf loop and right now that will be like high octane fuel for a hurricane. she is already 940mb so probly a cat 4 and any rapi stregthening would only mske her stronger here on out and nothing but her own eye wall cycles will weaken her and when they go thru these cycles thye are usually alot stronger after the cycle than befor
Can anyone tell me why the A98? line is so far east of the other spaghetti lines?? boatus.com
Flynn's thanks for your concern...but I am comfortable with the plan that we put together. You don't know all the details.
tis not a very good model and not a mjor forcasting model. but it shows the potentail for her to turn mor suddenl;y and put others in danger
This storm has the NHC and the models befuddled. 36 hours ago they were calling for a turn to the wnw or nw during the next 24 hours. That did not materialize.

Now, more of the same, and I agree it should happen eventually. But, the storm is still moving pretty much due west, maybe slightly north of due west, and the further west it gets the further west they will eventually have to move the forecast track, no matter what the models show.

I expect to see watches/warnings up from Cameron eastward to the mouth of the Mississippi tomorrow, with a landfall Monday very near where Andrew made landfall in '92.

Or maybe not.....
Lefty - thank U. Gotta secure things outside - just in case....
Even the Colorado mets are saying this is a very dangerous situation for NO:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/weather/4260630/detail.html

I don't know why some of you people that are worried in NOLA are waiting for evac orders. Last year a lot of us called in sick or whatever to get ready ahead of Frances in Jeanne. I remember seeing the panic around here (north Palm Beach county) with all the people that waited too late. That was for Cat 2 and 3! Trust me, you do not want to be nailing up boards (if you can even find them!) as the first rain bands hit well before the storm. Good luck Gulf Coast, this looks bad.
bore the more west she goes all that does with the model data which most are still ontrack is limit the possibilty of a strike further east, hence why the cone has shrunk,plus they have a good concensus of the modles and within 72 hrs oflandfall so the error is realy small at this point, hence why hurrican watched have been issued
Until Katrina gets off this current west movement, the further west she goes,before turning NW, the more likely she will strike se LA. If she starts wnw coarse in next 4 hours, the quicker she will turn nw and north and threaten direct hit on MS.
How strong is the TROF rntering the Gulf could it push Katrina more ENE?
292. Selu
hagshome. All major chains are booked. If you want to stay in a Holiday Inn, and you head out west, you won't find anything until you get to Houston.

Nothing at all is available in McComb. Nothing in Meridian. Nothing in Philadelphia. The closest vacancy I could find LAST NIGHT, prior to NO initiating evacuation, was in Oxford, MS and Greenwood, MS.

I'm not repeating rumors. I've been on the phone with the major chains.
stormt or lefty....

what are chances of this thing going any further W than Morgan City, say Lafayette (Lili's landfall)?
the trof is not going topush her at all. it is not that strong, it will weaken the ridge and start it to erode as it moves west. this will open up a weakness or a road if u will for the hurricane to move north and the riadge moving west will prevent her formmoving any more west at that point.


also recon reported pressure has risen to 949 mb. this is on track with a eye wall cycle of 5-10 mb weakening. the pressure will fall rapidly here for the next 12 hrs as in the vis u can now see the eye again meaning the cycle is almost complete
The TROF is strong and it is now in Texas, continuing to push Southeastward. However, it's not strong enough to push the system ENE unless Katrina stalls for 12 hours (Which won't happen) and stops moving West all together.

The model that shows landfall near Panama City is not a great model. However, it does show that if this system continues to move at only 6 mph for the next 24 hours, that path may mean something a little more. She is expected to start to increase her forward speed as the influence of the TROF begins to take effect.
Has anyone else noticed how it looks like Andrew in reverse? Cat 1 in Miami, then Cat 4 in LA.
i expect to see at the next advisory a pressure below 940 and a increas in winds, to around 130 to correlate with the pressure
If she gets W of 90 degrees, then Lafayette, Opelousas, and Alexandria are in for it
Katrina will start to move WNW and will increase forward speed this afternoon.
Afternoon every one.

PLEASE READE IF YOU LIVE IN OR AROUND NEW ORLEANS.
THIS COULD HAPPEN

flooding map of NO
check out this sat img. it is impressive. set speed to fast and enjoy

Link
Link

Here is a site for EARLY data BEFORE NHC public site.

While it is in Corpus Christy The data is NHC.

It also has a live Noaa Radio link.

See column of links to the left.

I wish Tampa had a site link this! BayNews 9 is always at least an hour late.

No webcasts from in NO yet I would like to here what the local stations are saying.
Good afternoon StormJunkie ;)
yeah i know stormj
Dr Masters has a new thread up - worth reading
Pressure up 8 mb to 949.
hey, i got a question thatmay be kinda pointless, but i'm going to ask it anyway.


Where LA is so far below sealevel anyway, and if this hurricane makes a direct hit, i'm thinking what they sait when it bounced off the bottom most part of FL, where it was so swampy, the weather people said it basically didn't slow katrina down much because it wasn't like hitting true dry land....so when (if) she runs into LA directly, there won't be much resistance because Katrina will be making her own little warm water bay out of NO and bring in the ocean with her and basically her own fuel supply.... is it likely that she won't lose much punch on landfall and therefore wreak even more havoc further inland than normally expected...notwithstanding the expected and previously estimated damage to NO that is writen up in the link StormJunkie has been providing......



did my question make enough sense?
concentric eyewalls too. Katrina will weaken until this cycle is complete.. but after that, possibly beginning later today and continuing into tonight.. the storm should begin to deepen once again.
central florida local news had her at 115mph, To hit bullseye on NO monday 8am 145mph
To LADobeLady:

I really think you should leave now. We have lots of hotel rooms left in Galveston. Can't you take the River Road (isn't that the name of the scenic route that takes you east to I-10??) Take that to I-10 and come to Galveston. You can get off I-10 somewhere around Winnie, I think (look for sign), and that will bring you the back way into Galveston. It takes longer under normal conditions, but may in fact be shorter under current conditions. You'll have to take the ferry from Bolivar to Galveston. During Ivan we had LOTS of people here. My boyfriend and I met people from all over. I live RIGHT on the seawall here so I feel your anxiety, and if I were you I'd leave NOW. If I can help in any way (finding you a room or whatever), let me know.

~Hairball (female in Galveston)

I'll ev
Katrina is a large and frightening hurricane. This storm is not to be taken lightly. For you folks in her line of sight please keep tune of all local advisories and warnings.
The storm is in some of the warmest waters seen in a long time. The potential for the hurricane to grow is great. There is no external weather event that appears to be capable of weakening Katrina at this time. Therefore Katrina will maintain herself to be a powerful threat to the gulf region.
Time to wait this one out from up north and see where the chips will fall in the next 72 hours. Be safe and wise down south.
GALVESTON, TEXAS HOTEL ROOMS AVAILABLE (AS OF NOON ON SATURDAY, 8/27)

NOTE: There are many more hotels here than what I've listed. But the following hotels are ones I called in the past 15 minutes to check on availability for tonight and Sunday night. I live here in Galveston, and I haven't listed any hotels that I wouldn't stay at myself. I hope it's okay to list this here; I'm just trying to help. The national reservation numbers will have you on hold forever right now and internet access is probably hit-and-miss right now too. The following phone numbers are all local.

HOLIDAY INN-SUNSPREE 409-762-4141
SATURDAY: Handful of rooms available ($154+)
SUNDAY: Plenty of rooms available ($134+)

HOLIDAY INN ON THE BEACH
**Sold out both nights**

SAN LUIS 409-744-1500
SATURDAY: Plenty ($189+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($149+)

BEST VALUE INN & SUITES 409-740-9000
SATURDAY: 6 rooms left ($89+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($49+)

HILTON 744-5000
SATURDAY: Handful left ($179+)
SUNDAY: Handful left ($159+)

THE VICTORIAN 409-740-3555
SATURDAY: **Sold Out**
SUNDAY: Plenty ($89+)

LA QUINTA (1402 SEAWALL) 409-763-1224
SATURDAY: 20 rooms left ($159+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($89)

LA QUINTA (8710 SEAWALL) 409-740-9100
SATURDAY: Less than 20 ($129+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($99+)

COMFORT INN 409-741-8888
SATURDAY: 15 rooms left ($129+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($79+)

BEST WESTERN 409-740-1261
SATURDAY: Plenty ($99.95+)
SUNDAY: Plenty ($59.95+)

If anyone needs any more information, just ask and I'll try to get it for you. ALL of the hotels I called said they their phones had started ringing off the hook in the past hour or so from people fleeing the hurricane, so I don't know how much longer these rooms will be available.
I live in Pensacola, where we've been hammered by two major hurricanes (and several tropical storms) in the past ten months.

With the memory of Ivan, in particular, still quite fresh, please allow me to urge those of you to our west to consider evacuating NOW. Get out of the way of others and spare yourselves the danger of being caught out on the highway.

As other have pointed out, the problem will be massive traffic on I-10 if New Orleans needs to take to their heels. I-10 really can't handle "routine" evacuation traffic from Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida -- much less some combination of those areas.

Right now, most people in Pensacola are staying in place. I bet there are still accommodations toward Tallahassee. Don't stop here -- just keep going east until you find something. Panama City, Tallahassee, Lake City, and Jacksonville are the big stops.

If I were in New Orleans, I'd run west. Everyone else goes east.

Good luck, y'all.


Bad news re: the storm surge. The LOW tides for the north Gulf Coast in the next 72 hr are all positive (~0.2-0.3 ft) with the high tides at (2+ ft)
316. wcta
All,

Living in Slidell LA...sent my family east just before noon on I-10. They are now east of Pensacola (driving to Cen FL)...traffic was busy but moving with no problems. I'm sure it won't last.
I'm truly amazed at the size of Katrina. Her outer bands and squalls have reached into western Florida. Here is a great satelite view during todays eyewall replacement.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/281.jpg

This storm has grown in diameter significantly. This storm is going to be a big problem this week right up the eastern third of the country. Flooding is of big concern.