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Katrina forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2005

Slow-to-organize TD 12 (now Katrina) continues to look better on satellite imagery, with deep convection on the east side continuing to build. The upper level outflow has improved considerably today, and there does not appear to be any major shearing of the system happening. Water vapor imagery does show some dry air to the northwest of the storm, and this dry air is currently the main obstacle that has slowed Katrina's development this morning. The latest Hurricane Hunter report at 7:30am EDT found a not-too-impressive central pressure of 1007 mb, but a respectable 45 knots of wind at flight level (1500 feet). The Hurricane Hunters noted some low-level banding beginning to occur, and it is a very safe bet that this system will continue to intensify today.

The track of the storm will take it over Florida by Friday, all the computer models agree. The exact landfall point is unclear, since the depression is moving slowly and erratically, and may undergo a reorganization where the center relocates under the main area of convection later today. The models forecast a landfall intensity anywhere from 35 mph winds to 70 mph winds. The higher range is possible if the convection on the east side manages to overcome the dry air on the west side and wrap all the way around the system by Thursday morning. Let's call it a 30% chance Katrina will be a Category 1 hurricane by landfall on Friday.

Once over Florida, the GFS model forecasts that the system will stall and not move for several days. All of the other models disagree, and push the system into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday, where it has an excellent chance of intensifying into a hurricane. Since the GFS it the only model calling for this stall, it is more believable to assume that Katrina will push into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the U.S. Gulf coast early next week.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

yeah i see that too
The storm does not have much dyr air or it would be small.
KATRINA HITS FLORIDA TWICE....SHE MUST LOVE US.....MIAMI RADAR DOESN'T SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT....SATELLITE LOOKS WEIRD....EVERYTHING SPREADING OUT........HEY STORMTOP, WHERES EVERYONE THAT USE TO BE ON HERE...ALEC,TURTLE,DEB1,HAWK, ETC.
Once again...
Lose the CAPS lock, Lenny
SQOTB ---- OUT!
You can laugh all you want. We were tired of hearing you whine like alittle baby. We will just have to start a new one. Go eat a sandwich or play with your x-box, GET A LIFE LEFTY!!!
OMG StormFlop I have tears in my eyes from laughing so hard.

You really believe everything you just said too...so sad.
wellper the nhc and my observations thers dry air in the circulation. u can see it in the loss of convectuion and the false eye that has appeared. argue that with the nhc over the dry air
WBFSU.
They left because of the egomaniacal arguing.
really----OUT!@ now.
Weatherboy if u e-mail me I can tell ya..lol
The storm is just plain big which is common for storms that make landfall on the east coast oh and it has ALWAYS been moving slowly and will dump up to 20 inches possible!!!
511. MrJ76
I am going to go out on a limb and say that an eye is forming. See link

IR Loop

I place the Center just south of Abaco Island. That coincides with where WHC placed the center.

Still waiting on those Microwave scans to see for sure.. this is just my opinion.
this is from the nhc disscussion

WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A
NORMAL RATE OF 10 KT PER 12 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH
LESS THAN THE NOW VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS KATRINA TO
111 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH
SSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LANDFALL. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL EXPERIMENTAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES A 57 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR THAT SURROUNDS KATRINA AND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE INNER-CORE REGION AND ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE DRY
AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.

If they said so then I will not disagree but it isn't in a overall dry air invironment.
that is a false eye feture due to the dry air in the circulation
right thats why they belive she will mix it out over the next 6-12 hrs.
Weatherguy...you can tell me....aint scareddddddd.....lol
now she has a open eye wall with in the convection showing how orginised she is. once that dry air mixes out she will be able to rapidly itensify
he won't say casue apperently they left casue of me and stormt. my getting things right must just ruin the blog for everyone
some people need to be in an enviroment where evryone shares the same view, could care less if they are right as wrong just so they can hear what they want. i ma not like that and will point out innaccurate info in a second and back it up with data. sorry if i offend people but knowing is half the battle
Its obvious that there is dry air involved in Katrina or it would be one continuous blob of convection....there shouldnt be any clear spots like there is with katrina
521. MrJ76
There maybe a tad of dry air, but isn't that what the eye is made of? The dry air is making the center easier to see IMO (finally at least). There is very little dry air around the storm. See the lastest water vapor shot:

Water Vapor
ALEC LIKES TO PLAY SHEERQUEEN THATS HIS OTHER NAME GUYS WHAT A TOTAL JERK AND I THOUGH HE HAD SOME SENSE..HE HAS BEEN DOING THIS FOR DAYS...SO WHON NEEDS THE MEDS?IM OPUT OF HERE UNTIL 11PM....LATER LEFTY KEEP THE FORT DOWN...
Lefty..how are you getting everything right?

I commented on conditions setting up for intensification 4 days ago...you & StormFlop scoffed..."your wave" was going to develop you said & StormFlop had Jose turning into a major hurricane hitting the US...ahhh how we change now huh?!?!
that is a false eye feture and is ne of where the actual cenetr is. its the boudary between 2 bands and you can see it better in visible img that in ir
i was refering to this storm which i didn;t comment on really cause i was always defending the other wave which if u see in my earlier posts i stated that me and storm;s repsect grew out of us being right and wrong about the same thing, i said his wave would die like he siad mine would. now on that note my wave is predicted to be td 13 by tomm, so in sense i was not to wrong just late but i take full credit for that one. no forcaster will 100 correct as weather is always changing hbut alot of things happened over the past 2 days where i stuck to my guns and came out correct and that was what i was referring to. should have been more clear but to the people it was directed at they understood. also i have not left the blog cause people have dissagreed with me like others have
by ther way u were the most on about this system by far not disputing that
ATTENTION NEWCOMERS to the blog. I'm sure many of you are concerned about the situation, as you should be. I urge all of you to follow basic hurricane preparedness, and not to panic. There's no telling for sure the intensity of this storm. You could experience anything from small tropical storm conditions to Cat 3 hurricane conditions. It's a fluid situation, but at present the NHC is calling for 60-80 MPH winds and lots of rain. There's also no telling exactly where the storm will hit. The NHC best estimate is Broward-Palm Beach county, but it could easily be 100 miles north or south of that. For now, just be prepared for loss of power. Have food. Don't put up shutters yet, but be prepared to do so late tonight or tomorrow morning.
MOST IMPORTANT....base your thoughts first on what the NHC says. Then read what Dr. Masters says. DO NOT base any decisions on what you read on this blog from Stormtop, Lefty, Sainthurrifan, and some others. They are all one and the same. That's right. Just ONE sad individual.
dude i am not stomrt i am a totally diff person
529. RMcD
Lefty

You say that Kat will rapidly instensify prior to 1st landfall. Do you think it will get over Cat 1 ?
maybe my range is 65-95 kts
Lefty..thanx for the acknowledgement although I wish it wasn't so... looks like one of my landfall probs will pan out as well.Being an Andrew suvivour & thinking I'd escape this crap by moving inland...only to have 3 smack me last year...I have a keen intrest in watching, tracking, & trying to stay one step ahead.

The bold out & out lying, yelling, & wishcasting is ridiculous on here though...one thing to give an opinion...another to present it as fact & get bent if someone points out something different or that someones (no need to mention that name)prediction/wish/fantasy was wrong.
for the last time i am not stormt or any otehr alias. get that straight right now
Max mayfield from NHC was just on local News, and stated
at least a major rain event 15-20 inches of rain, and he asked his wife to take out the shutters and place them near the windows.........LOL That means to me anyway, they still arent at least 80% confident in their intensity forecasts
anyway. Im in Ft. Lauderdale and ya its gonna be a bumpy ride, more powerwise...FPL just bandaided crap from last year and my power was out for 6 days after Francis.
Nice breezes so far here, and the most outer edge has arrived. The Bus System will shut down at Noon Tommorrow,
so obviously they feel this is serious. Cosmic's comments are very appropriate. Some of the posters can play games but I take it serious. Please If you really have multiple blog names to match multiple personalities, please stop and be serious, Im all full up on crazy down here as the storm approaches....Thank You
i hav updated my south florida blog, i will update conditions in broward county throughout the night and until the storm is gone
i ma one person with one name. stop the lying right now
Just remember where your at .....on a weather blog, not on a interconnected chat room with the national hurricane center........If you keep things in perspective, you will be alright.....LOL
STORMTOP, I OFFICIALLY RENAME YOU "CAPS LOCK BOY"


(CLB for short)

eeeeesh....


lmao
hey theres turtle..what up...
i am one person one screen name
Lefty....you cannot type. Stormtop....you are an idiot.

(from a disinterested third party)
sorry i am playing xbox as well as read people talking crap about me
BYE BYE....Oneday....
Rather interesting stuff guys.... i wouldn't have expected the storm to do a doubleplay on landfall.. will be cool to watch the discussion and the storm to see how close everyone's calls get :)
The "false eye" is filling now. In fact, a dramatic burst of convection appears to be occuring near or over the storm's center. Could this be our intensification in the making?
Getting a little testy in here. I find all the posts to be both interesting and a bit comical. Does anyone think that Kat has definately made a jog to the west other than me?
Hey, One-A-Day...uh, if you are disinterested, why bother to post?
547. MrJ76
Good visible loop from the Bahamas.. Higher level clouds are starting to build up.. although not much around the center.

Visible Sat
its pretty much like the NHC has it going across florida....out into the Gulf and back into Florida again...we had 4 landfalls last year and this will make 2 landfalls.....
The latest GFS has it hitting NC.....lol
It will be interesting to see what happens tonight....midnight to 4am....thats when these storms can kick it up......shear is at its lowest
is the long-range radar working for anybody else? Mine says it's expired.
yeah...the radar is working for me...miami site was working fine
Okay, maybe not that disinterested....I've just listened to StormTop since he so factually stated that Emily would hit the TX/LA border after she crossed the Yucatan. His predictions since then have not improved. He simply states the most extreme and catastrophic possibility and attempts to make it sound official. I wouldn't be surprised if Lefty and Stormtop are the same person, as Lefty is riding his "coattails" and uses the same writing style and mannerisms.
Good luck to everyone in S. FL tonight. :D

I almost want this thing to recurve back to Jax just so the Panhandle people catch a break.

B
Weatherboyfsu you are confident that Katrina will cross over into the Gulf then?
My Miami radar is working fine. Have you tried clearing your cache. If you're like me you've probably looked at so much radar that your computer's temporary memory might be full.
Microwave Image Shows EYE. This can't be a "fake" eye feature. Link
MRJ76
do you have a homepage link for the vis link you provided
YEAH THATS WHAT MICROWAVE DATA IS FOR. WHAT SOMEONE WAS CALLING THE EYE WAS NOWTHWEST OF THAT
Relax Lefty, I think most of us appreciate your insight.
lol
so yall see that little eye formin
53rd recon, that is the dry air "pocket" that has been getting mixed into the storm all day. Look at a 24 hr loop. It is certainly not an eye.
oh ok it looks like an eye
It does at first glance, especially since the pass only gets the west half of Katrina. If you look at a 24 hr WV loop...you can see how there was a LOT of dry air to the West and NW...some of which got pulled into the storm's circulation. THe environemnt surrounding Katrina is much moister now in its entirety, and katrina herself is partially responsible for this as she advects moisture around her circulation. The dry pocket is a remnant of a much larger dry air intrusion. That carrib close up vis loop really shows some convection firing along the E semi circle of the circulation.
hey but the storm looks like a hurricane from the satieltte
thanks wxgssr for the info
np. It also looks as if the steering flow is is becoming easterly, some one alluded to that earlier. A wider angle IR view (and WV for that matter) shows the ridge over the SE gaining influence over the track.
I just do not see this, now massive storm kick directly West anytime soon. What are the steering elements that are in place to do so?
The ridge over the SE...its ridging eastward to Katrina's north. She will be blocked from going in that direction. Regional(or larger) view sat loops depict it occuring as I type.
Anybody got a link to Nassau radar?
well she is moving west right now and that is her forcast track. all this based on the miami radar