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Katrina: Category 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:24 PM GMT on August 28, 2005

Katrina is in the midst of a truly historic rapid deepening phase--the pressure has dropped 34 mb in the 11 hours ending at 7am EDT, and now stands at 908 mb. Katrina is now the sixth strongest hurricane ever measured in the Atlantic. At the rate Katrina is deepening, she could easily be the third or fourth most intense hurricane ever, later today. The list of strongest hurricanes of all time includes:

Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)

The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)

Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)

Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)

Hurricane Mitch (905 mb, 1998)

Hurricane Ivan (910 mb, 2004)

Katrina's winds and storm surge
Maximum sustained winds at flight level during the 7am Hurricane Hunter mission into Katrina were 153 knots, which translates to 160 mph at the surface, making Katrina a minimal Category 5 hurricane. The winds are likely to increase to "catch up" to the rapidly falling pressure, and could approach the all-time record of 190 mph set in Camille and Allen. Winds of this level will create maximum storm surge heights over 25 feet, and this storm surge will affect an area at least double the area wiped clean by Camille, which was roughly half the size of Katrina. Katrina has continued to expand in size, and is now a huge hurricane like Ivan. Damage will be very widespread and extreme if Katrina can maintain Category 5 strength at landfall.

Landfall projections
The computer models are very tightly clustered and have been so for almost a day. The data used to initialize the models is excellent, since all available hurricane hunter aircraft have been in the air continuously making measurements for several days. Katrina has already made her turn northward, which makes the task of landfall prediction for the models much easier. The offical NHC forecast of a landfall in SE Louisiana, on the western edge of New Orleans, is thus a high-confidence forecast. The spread in the landfall location is just 90 miles, meaning the eye of Katrina is very likely to hit somewhere between New Orleans and a point just east of the Mississippi-Louisiana border.

Intensity forecast
Katrina's intensity at landfall is likely to be Category 4, but could easily be Category 3 or 5. She will undergo another eyewall replacement cycle before landfall, and this will weaken her maximum winds by 20 - 30 mph for a 12-hour period. Additionally, some increase in shear is possible in the 12 hours prior to landfall, which could weaken Katrina's winds another 10 - 20 mph. If we are extrememly lucky, both factors will conspire to knock Katrina down to a Category 3 and she will hit at low tide. Given that the storm is so large and is already pushing up a huge storm surge wave in front of it, even a weakened Category 3 Katrina hitting at low tide will cause an incredible amount of damage. A stretch of coast 170 miles long will experience hurricane force winds, given the current radius of hurricane force winds around the storm. A direct hit on New Orleans in this best-case scenario may still be enough to flood the city, resulting in heavy loss of life and $30 billion or more in damage.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

According to Lyons...Hurricane Force Winds extend out 100 miles from center...

Best Analogy All Day -- from Bastardi....

he said Katrina has the size of Betsy (Huge) yet the intensity of Camille...
Any more RECON reports??? Or we waiting for the 5:00pEST advisory???
Northern routes still open as of 4:15 EST.
chicago .. its just about the worst cse scenario for NO
Latest loop looks like it moved a little more W-NW again.. anyone else see that in the last frame?
1006. Valence
WTF-

They are searching bags at the superdome? Do they really think someone is going to try and bomb the place in the middle of a hurricane?

I could see maybe metal detectors for weapons, but really! Get these people in the building!
1007. pcolaFL
sewmap-I have seen very little concern in town since Friday. We all are feeling bad for NOLA, but since technically we are not even in the cone, everyone feels safe. I am the only one of my friends/family who have boarded windows. I have battened down my hatches for the duration of the storm and will not go back out until it is over. As I posted earlier, wind gusts are really picking up. I can't imagine being in a van or truck on the escambia bay bridge when these gusts hit. SCARY!
No Chicago...that would be near or at the worst case possible. Only thing that could make it worse is if in addition to all that, the eye with whatever 175+ winds it had also hit the city.
lefty what's that about most of MS being destroyed. Ya'll don't compare him to a tree hugger. I love my trees, unfocanatly their on a farm in Tylertown, Ms
1010. K8tina
Cool pic of Gilbert!!! And from our very own Dr Jeff!!! *grins*

Pseabury -- I hope the pub makes it through the storm, but it doesn't look likely unless NO is spared the brunt of this storm. :-(

As for P'cola and points eastward... I don't think ppl are worried b/c all the weather stations here are pointing to a landfall at New Orleans. I betcha if there were to be a slight jog to the NNE or NE, people would be scrambling! (Btw, this is NOT a request for it to go eastward towards P'cola.)

Is there any chance this storm could stall out there in the Gulf?
1011. Dragoon
New recon info shows a steady pressure, and an eye that is getting a bit LARGER even.
Beaumont Texas here and just checked I-10 personally and very lite traffic...nothing out the norm for a Sunday afternoon. For those of you who dont know where Beaumont is it is 30 miles west of TX/LA border on 1-10.
WTF-

They are searching bags at the superdome? Do they really think someone is going to try and bomb the place in the middle of a hurricane?

I could see maybe metal detectors for weapons, but really! Get these people in the building!


They'll get them in, but mixing the potential of carry-in weapons (which I'm sure they're finding) with what the conditions in there will be in 3 days, is a bad combo.
Dragoon -- Can you post the latest RECON for us?? Thanks a bunch :)
u guys wacthing the local feed...Regional homeland Security Director is at Supedrdome...he said the following...

10,000 people already inside...
10,000 waiting inside...
only 30,000 can fit..as they expect the lower level and field to be flooded....

they expect to lose power, and sanitary facilities...

they are doing extensive security checks for anyone wanting to answer...
they are expecting flooding in the bottom levels of the superdome covering the field. the head of the shelter and the head of homeland secuirty of no said he is not here to insure comfort he is here to insure u r alive on tuesday morning. they then asked him how confident he was on their safety he said we can not expect 100percent but its all we have
1017. Carbo04
A stall is not likely but possible. Katrina is just so friggen big and strong that the troff is going to have to put up a massive fight to do anything to Katrina. It might just end up in a tie and Katrina stalling, or Katrina might just win, and bull over the troff.
when asked if he thought that the superdome would 100% survive...he answered with this strom and today nothing is 100%
1019. kjcanon
I'm watching the streaming video from NO (wwltv) and the guy at the superdome (didn't get his name, but the head organizer) said that the FLOOR of the superdome, along with any underground levels) MAY be underwater later tonight... he also said that they are looking at possibly 35000+ to be housed inside the dome. Unbelieveable. And they're calling it a "last resort" place to go.
1020. Valence
Last frame of the loop shows a turn back to the NW, so the N shift may have just been a wobble. We'll know pretty soon.

Alright, i've gotta step off for a while. My behind is going numb, and I cant remember the last time I had anything real to drink.

Dont worry, i'll definately be on here later.
Beaumont...the backup is East of you....East of Lake Charles. Pressure going west from NOLA still appears to be strong from the webcams I'm looking at and the local nola news feed.
carbo she would turn ne well befor she stalled
Quote Skyepony:
Ya'll don't compare him to a tree hugger. I love my trees, unfocanatly their on a farm in Tylertown, Ms


yeah, i guess you are right.... heck i'm from Maine....trees? Trees! What's NOT to love? lol
lefty u swa it too...wow..amazing...he said im not worried bout comfort im worried about people still being alive tue am
No Chicago...that would be near or at the worst case possible. Only thing that could make it worse is if in addition to all that, the eye with whatever 175+ winds it had also hit the city.

And, didn't I read that the superdome roof was good for 200, thought i read that the gusts are now in excess of that. Some good news soon would be nice...
It has started raining and the wind is kicking up. So quick, I figured later tonight. I have a barometer my dad gave me. It's reading 28.4 inches. Not sure what that is in mbs. Will keep you updated with conditions here on the west end of things
I just saw all the poor people inline at the dome, this is the saddest thing I have ever seen
1028. MKB4
I live in Pensacola and any jog to the N/NE will really catch us with our pants down. Lots of people have gassed up and stocked up, but there will be no time to evacuate because I-10 is a parking lot even here and hardly anyone has boarded up.
HE is the southeast US Homeland Security Director

nice to see the feds involved...

also RTA buses are going throughout the city and picking up anyone that wants or cant get there for free to the superdome
that was chillinga nd he doesn't sound to confident in her safety either. man that could be a disater
Carbo...that's why I feel it will be a compromise between the two. Trough won't stall her terribly, and Katrina won't run over the trough.....I think they'll meet in the middle somewhere and the trough will nudge her AS she is losing some NW quadrant to the trough. Interesting interaction to watch.
That's barometer in inches mercury...and it sounds like that one may be calibrated a little low.
Just a short squall. Still sure was earlier than I expected to see any effects.
Airline Drive Highway65 West is a parking lot...

Contraflow is stopped in 40 min

Chicago is right, the mix of people that will be in the superdome will include many unsavory characters. I am VERY glad they are checking the bags. Tempers will flare in that place. It will not be fun, loaded guns and knives would not go well in that crowded place.
i know lefty you saw the dread in hsi voice..yet the valor in trying to do what he can do save lives...its people like that that makes this country great..
1037. Carbo04
Katrina i think is a tad too strong to get weakened by the troff. Storms that big make their own enviroments that prevent stuff like that from happening.
Lefty, what did you say about Mississippi?
I just got finished putting up 25 sheets of plywood. I have been away for a few hours.
Just trying to lift spirits in a grim situation, so they allow brown bagging in the dome?

My prayers go out to all that live in SE LA, and South MS
yeah no should see ts sustained winds with in the next 2-4 hrs
1041. Jedkins
This storm just gives me chills and I am in clearwater FL no where near the storm this is just incredible the size and the strength makes this hurricane put shivers down your spine...
It has been raining, gusty, and humid as he**.
it is chilling
mss will see destruction well inland and most of mss will have significant damege miss is now under a state of emergency
It is 3:45 p.m. (1545 hours) and the first dark feeder bands are low on the horizon. No rain yet. Wind is not bad at all and coming from the southwest. Still have powere and obviously internet. Still hot outside but the wind is making it bearable. (Not looking forward to days without airconditioning.) One rural shelter in Hancock County is full. I am in the left upper quadrant of Harrison County and within that quadrant I am close to the bottom. Predictions are that we will begin gale force winds within the next 3-5 hours. Curfew is 9:00 p.m. (2100 hours). Am trying to video this but will put safety above drama.
1046. K8tina
Carbo04 said "Katrina i think is a tad too strong to get weakened by the troff. Storms that big make their own enviroments that prevent stuff like that from happening."

My hubby said "Sounds like she's stubborn like you!" ...Yeah, thanks honey!

Btw, any new updates?
alotof things ahve been focused on no. miss will be on the ne quadrant and i expect parts of miss will be wiped away. nothing left
what's the latest measurements on the storm? Any idea what the pressure and wind speed are?
Bad humor here...

What would be worse...Spending tomorrow afternoon in the superdome orrr....

Spending the night in the superdome watching the Saint's season opener?
1050. Jedkins
This is like cammile but much larger and the type of destrucion from cammile was incredible enough.
TD 13!
What about eyewall replacement? Everything you guys are saying is that doesn't look likely. Tell me you might be wrong and a replacement cycle is still possible.
Tropical Depression 13 has just formed in the Atlantic.
I cant believe it, but stormtop's prediction he made 2 days ago looks pretty close..
1055. Carbo04
LOL. That was a good one, k8tina. As for new updates. the full 5pm advisory should be out soon.
New Orleans will never be the same again. =(
Someone on FOX just said the second coming of Atlantis. Also talking about coffins poping up. Real bad. Pray!
that was funny k8tina
at this point it would not matter. if she did start an eye wall cycle she would not weakne much befor landfall. it ios now setting in we will have a strong cat 5 making landfall. that is almost certain and that came from the director of the nhc a few minutes ago on cnn
/sigh

Shouldn't we be due for some more hard info soon?
1061. Carbo04
TD13, but that can wait a couple days to be talked about.
1062. K8tina
Weareallgunnadie -- I guess you really must love the Saints! My guess is that the Saints players are NOT going to be spending the night in the Superdome... just a guess...

So we have another tropical storm to worry 'bout after this one, eh? What would this one be named -- Lee?

Just waiting for the latest update on coordinates, wind speed, etc...
stormjunkie i heard that..fox also had an official from LSU on who said that there are many chemical plants and that 80% destruction of buildings will unleash chemicals into the air creating toxic air...he said the only thing to do is get everybody out
TD 13 should go out to sea, no threat to land.
next advisory in the next 30 mins. doubt there will be much more than a position change. pressure and winds seem they will be the same
1066. Jedkins
Check out the composite long range loop at NO looks like it is currently heading towards the missisippi coast.
Can you imagine all those people standing in line at the SuperDome getting all sweaty and then the power going out and them being stuck in there for days. YUCK
Yes Carbo. Just pointing it out. There is no way that they will get all of the people they need to in the dome.
THis is so really frustrating because of how slow the emergency response was. If the mayor and governor were so clueless, why weren't local meteorologists and emergency personnel (who should have been as tapped into this if not moreso than this blog) more vigorous in educating them about the urgent need to evacuate. Many of the locals had no clue what was coming. A friend of mine's in-law live on Lake Ponchatrain and they had no idea what was going on until I told him yesterday AM that he should give them a call because this was going to be one of the most significant hurricanes of the decade, little did I know it would be a once in a lifetime type. =(
God be with the Dome so many are counting on it now.
the official from LSU went on to say that he has been in touch with CDC and FEMA and that efforts are in progress to set up a refugee camp North of NO that will need to house over 1 million people in Tents for up to 1 year!! OMG...
next advisory in the next 30 mins. doubt there will be much more than a position change. pressure and winds seem they will be the same

Will that shed any additional light on projected track?
**********TD 13 Forms In Atlantic************
is td 13 my old atlantic wave? bout time she gotittogether
Looks like we are going to add a CAT-6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale.
they will likley close the cone smaller but at this point itss safe to say the landfall will be fairley close but just to the east of no
Fox is also now reporting that NHC has notified NO officials that ALL NO HiRise NO Buildings need to be evacuated as in Cat 4/5 some building will sway and could well collapse...keep in mind that some bldgs in NO are 50 stories high!!
haha k8tina, I love louisiana, graduated from LSU and married my wife from there. Was a resident for 11 years till I moved to Florida to get away from all the hurricanes *cough* :)

Love the saints, like a father loves his ugly dog, love LSU like my only daughter. Love Baton Rouge, NO and the coastal marshes.

I worked in the environmental field and GIS...I know about those plants. Lots of bad stuff if they get heavily damaged. I just hope we wake up Tuesday and we all get to say...WOW!!! That could have been a lot worse and MAN did we dodge a bullet.



I'm here in Gulfport, MS. We're about 7 miles inland, 2 miles north of I-10. Just started raining about 3:15 CST. Will try to update and post photos as conditions permit.
TD 13 satellite at
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

And again, large wave forming off west coast of Africa.

Strongly suggest TD 13 forms its own blog

I guess the only good thing about Katrina at this point is that she's sucking up a huge amount of energy that will be less available for the next storm.
they also stated that most all building s in the path of the eye at landfall will have roof and wall failure. they expect that large debirs as big as household applainces and light vehicles will become airborn
lol, fox news has added 5.5 already
1084. Dragoon
no lefty td 13 is the feature that was southeast of your wave.

Your wave is still hanging on through shear at the moment.. but no real chance for development any time soon.
they will likley close the cone smaller but at this point itss safe to say the landfall will be fairley close but just to the east of no
So yesterday's / last night's models have held up and the sw entry/ne exit from no appears less likely?
Some of those buildings are very close to the Dome. Sinking feeling.
I don't want to criticize or be political, but the mayor and governor are not the most qualified leaders...I hate being critical, but I believe they could have been more forceful and proactive a little earlier. Of course, the people with the means should have been out of NO and the area yesterday. Everybody SHOULD KNOW BY NOW. Ivan was a great lesson just last year.
Where they gonna evacuate my 94 year old grandpa to from a high rise? They taking them to the Superdome?

1089. Dragoon
As I said could happen, the winds have been lowered to 145 kts, or 165 mph.
1090. JeffM
Down to 165mph
yes pretty much. go to this link for all info


Link
1092. IKE
Winds down to 165
new advisory out
Winds down to 165. Why did they decrease? Glad they did but what happened?
1095. Carbo04
are you guys watching Fox news!? Reporting that on Burban street in NO, there is a massive hurricane party. hundereds in the street getting drunk.
I am sure that I just missed the post in all that has been said lately, but didn't someone just post a link for the tvs on burbon street?

they are talking that the hurricane parties are getting larger on burbob street.
Eyewall almost completely visible on the NOAA radar for BR.

BR RADAR
1098. TheEdge
Winds have dropped to 165mph as per weaterh channel
that's my home state for ya. good lord.
1100. Jedkins
Yes but the pressure has not dropped so that doesn't mean much.
Also, what are the bars in the quarter thinking about staying open and serving people? How responsible is that?
1102. wxfan
Im happy to see the winds down to 165, but I think they'll come back up. This storm seems to weaken a bit and spread out during the day and strengthen significantly at night.
omg, there are tons of people on bourbon street partying like its mardi gras.
1104. Dragoon
Like I tried to explain to everyone earlier.. the flight level wind they found in the ne quadrant on the last pass was not as strong as what they found earlier. The wind they found corresponded to roughly 145 kts, not 150 kts. Hence the lowering of the intensity.
What are the road conditions like? How far away from the coast are those who set out today likely to be able to get? Insane gridlock or is traffic moving?
1106. Jedkins
Risen I mean.
the more significant object of the new advisory is the pressure drop...even tho the winds are down that still indicates the storm has not peaked at its wind intensity
1108. hmfynn
damn, still no turn whatsoever. Looks like this thing is going west of N.O.

doesn't look like much change in the track though...
And when Shep asked him why are you still here, the guy said "It's none of your f*cking business".

Wow.
Minor decrease is just a fluctuation if you ask me. Still have the diernal period to go too.
Drink a beer for me guys1!!!!!!!!
he justs aid i expect alot of deadpeople in no in the morning
1113. wxfan
yep, storm! the worst part of the day isnt here yet. it'll be 180-185 tomorrow morning.
1114. Carbo04
And when Shep asked him why are you still here, the guy said "It's none of your f*cking business".


I saw that too. wow..... But seriously, the pressure is 902. The winds will pick up again.

what is the diernal period? What goes on then?

Thanks for all the technical teaching.
EZ--traffic is moving....SLOWLY. i'd think that if you haven't left NO by now, you never will.
new update is out... the winds have decreased to 165 mph. Do u guys think its a sign of weakening or a new eye replacement cycle???
Partying on Bourbon street? Oh God. But I guess that it was not likely that those people would have been safe wherever they deciede to go. At least they go out with a bang. May be the last party on Bourbon St. EVER.
every one needs to wathc fox news. this is unbeliveable. a gjuy driving around with his whole family in the car are trying to find a hotel room. he has a 4 yr old daughter. i can not belive this omg
u jus see cantori..."im sick with dread at the loss of live i fear is going to occur."
i agree lefty ..fox by far has the best national coverage
1122. Carbo04
It's neither, Weather89. It's just a flucuation. The pressure is still 902. The winds will pick up again.
Definitely not an eye replacement.....eye looks stable. I doubt it will decrease any further, but likely increase by morning.
JAX-Lefty could do a better job, but the colling of the night air means that the storm is pulling that hot water of the oceanup allowing cloud tops to get cooler? or something like that. Storms get stronger at night.
ok sorry storm info.

they eye got bigger as she got bigger so there was a fluctation of the winds. the pressure is 902 so that is a bad sign, the winds will increase again in time belive me.


the diurinal cycle has to do with inversions that develop over the storms preventing high cloud height. at night time it is easier to build convection and if u noticed most of her real development happened over night
1126. pcolaFL
Local stations say the storm is definitely headed NW at 13. Travelers through FLA: If you need info on alternate routes, call: 888-638-0250 ext. 1637. A live person will answer the phone and can help you get to shelter. This is a FL DOT number being given out locally.
1127. Jedkins
It definately isn't going through a replacement cycle yet and the pressure has not fallen but this is common with a storm this intense they often have fluctuations in intensity.
1128. Laddy
The forecast track is back to 89.9 (30 lat/90 long is downtown NO)
NHC said that even if its a direct hit on NO Coastal Alabama can expect a 20 ft surge....30 ft surge in NO
1130. TheEdge
I would rather be ashes than dust!
I would rather that my spark
should burn out in a brilliant blaze
than it should be stifled by dry-rot.
Maybe those peole on Bourbon street beleive like Ole author Jack London Of "Call Of The Wild" fame.

Hie "Credo"
I would rather be a superb meteor
every atom of me in magnificent glow
than a sleepy and permanent planet.

The function of man is to live
not to exist.
I shall not waste my days trying to prolong them.
I shall use my time.
This site will have live reports and ongoing videocams (until they fail) from the coast along Waveland/Gulfport Mississipi area.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

Link

They also have a pay service referred to on their site, but I won't provide the link to that.

did u say 89.9?? damn No is gonna get it
1133. K8tina
I missed the f*** comment... too busy reading the new advisory... my hubby thinks I'm glued to the computer... while he's sitting there watching the weather channel gawking at that stephanie abrams chick... ;-)

Anyone posting any weather pics yet of the waves/clouds/storm surge/etc.?
thats why i have a dvr(tivo for cable) i just rewound it a few times and played it again
That's what i thought, just the regular flucuations in intensity, not an eye replacement cycle. But hey, it never hurts to have wishful thinking.
1136. TheEdge
Sorry bout that....Jack Londons "Credo" that maybe those on Bourbon St beleive. LOL

I would rather be ashes than dust!
I would rather that my spark
should burn out in a brilliant blaze
than it should be stifled by dry-rot.

I would rather be a superb meteor
every atom of me in magnificent glow
than a sleepy and permanent planet.

The function of man is to live
not to exist.
I shall not waste my days trying to prolong them.
I shall use my time.
1137. afs
God help them.

This is so tragic... and most of America hasn't even figured out the worst disaster in US history may be about to happen. They just think a big thunderstorm is headed to New Orleans, and everyone is just over-reacting.
1138. Jedkins
Ya deeper convection is limited during the day and I am afraid there may never be a replacement cycle,the eye has continued to become better difined and is the most immpressive looking storm from sattelite I have EVER seen.
I'm still seeing some of the news stations saying monday morning at around 7am or early afternoon for landfall.

Any thoughts on this? She is still moving at 12 mph. Any slow down in sight?
Thanks Storm. Is it the heat transfer is going up faster because of the heat difference? I may have to go visit google. Thanks for the info.
Bamaman at 7:13 PM GMT on August 28, 2005 said:

> Ha, STORMTOP just happened to get this one right. I guess if you pick
> nearly the same thing every time, you'll eventually nail it head on.

Yes, every hundred years or so, with what he was predicting so far in advance it was uncanny. He was not just saying cat 5, he was saying 180 MPH, which we have exceeded, and people were laughing, even though that looked quite reasonable. And he was saying New Orleans. His reasons were fine. Now he is likely dying in New Orleans due to the same stubborness that made people dislike him here.

He is obnoxious. I doubt I would want him for a friend. But I was thinking the same thing about this storm, just not with his certainty, and all his reasons were valid. I hope he survives. If he dies, I am honored to have shared a blog with him. And he has my respect.

Maybe he was looking so hard for the big one that he saw it when it wasn't coming. But Emily had chances, and so did Dennis. The gulf has been dangerous all year. He lives in New Orleans. We don't, most of us. I can understand thinking things are headed your way a bit quickly at times.


And folks, it isn't the wind that is dangerous--well, it is--but the storm surge and flooding will be the real killers here. The wind just means it will be a wasteland that is flooded and not a city. The water alone would probably wash many of the buildings away, or collapse them. Wind speed is just more glamorous to talk about.

Well, new update coming.


ACCORDING TO LOCAL FEED OFFICIAL TRACK HAS NOW BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT!!
Possibly already posted, but reiterating:

Hwy 90 East at the Pearl River Bridge is closed. You cannot take the Highway to Mississippi, Alabama or Florida.
the heating of the day causes a cap to form, a layer of stable air if u will. when the sun goes down that air cools quickly and sinks breaking the cap. same reason u usually see strong thunderstorms in the evening in the midwest
1145. Dragoon
Yes, perfectly agreed. As long as that pressure stays steady at 902 mb, we aren't going to see any significant lowering of the winds. Tonight, during the diurnal maximum we could very well see an increase in intensity again. An eyewall cycle is about all that we can hope for now.
NO is about to get some heavy bands they are also getting rained on at the Dome. This tragedy has been building for days.

Have not eaten all day. Don't feel like it. HAve to go try though.

I will pray for everyone down there.
However -- given the immense size and intensity of this all-time record storm -- there may be 'no stopping' this
storm -- as Super Storms, like Katrina, tend to create their very own environment -- and can 'deflect' small outside
influences - such light wind shear, or areas of dry air. (like we saw over the past 2 days)

I'll have a nother brief update around 5 PM CDT.

To those living in the area being impacted by this storm - my personal prayers are with you.

Steve
Nevermind Foxnews just answered my question!

They are saying it's possible that this will be a 4am or 5am event.
Has anyone seen this thing showing any hints of turning more north?
Here is my poem for those staying (I am not in New Orleans, btw):



Katrina: Morituri te salutant
28 August 2005


A miracle of the modern age:

I stare at my computer screen
draped with plastic beads.
I watch this dangerous disc from space.

It is spinning like a cotton top--
spindle perfect, clear,
ready to prick.

Will my beautiful southern belle ever wake?
Will there be a Vieux Carr, a Bourbon Street?
The Big Easy will go down in style if she goes:

Thousands are poised to party till the end.
Some have faith that God will save
their Queen; others believe He won't,

but we are in love with her.


--marc a. drexler
shows steve was being conservative and has now come to the realisation some of us made earlier in the day. i wonder if he reads the posts. i bet he does
1152. wxfan
pasc, it wobbled N earlier but that was just a wobble. It is still moving NW, and will miss the next NHC forecast point to the WEST.
And as I was saying last night, a 4-5 am landfall means a landfall at high tide. =(
1154. IKE
It is moving/wobbling more northward as predicted by NHC. Looks like NO is just hours away from a living hell. Hopefully it will weaken.
Orleans77 are you Steve Gregory?
ACTIVE TORNADO WARNING IN MOBILE...FOR NEXT HALF HOUR
1157. pcolaFL
Just had a major power fluctuation. West pensacola may lose power soon--we are getting some wind!
no i was jus quoting a section of his post to answer questions on eyewall replacement cycles
I don't mean to cause a disagreement, but is it "It is still moving NW, and will miss the next NHC forecast point to the WEST. or is it following the path?
For some reason I can't see the WWL-TV feed (NO) on my Windows Media Player, it won't show me any video or audio and fails to connect with it. I am rnuning version 10, are any of you who are watching it running version 10 under XP? I've tried uninstalling and reinstalling it twice and still can't get it. =(
1161. pcolaFL
Thanks for the warning Orleans 77, I will check to see if that's headed our way.
My friends feel stuck in Mobile. They go to sleep with a small storm and wake up with a monster. Now it's too late to leave.

They are telling me the weather is worsening.
1163. wxfan
The NHC had it moving a bit further to the North instead of West.

Here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Check the boxes that say Lat/.. and TropFcstPt
wwl guy just said hr ran the lsu slosh model over plaq. parish, and he couldn't find any drty land with a cat3, and 20% of the people are still down there
open ur explorer window and go to internt options and make sure u allow videos with in webpages to be played. also make sure u allow adiuo as well. if that doesn't work u might need to reinstall drirectx. u can download to newest version by searching for it on google
1166. sewmap
I have heard reports saying that water seen as you go over bridge to Perdido Key is Extremely high already. What kind of storn surge is expected in the P-cola?
they need to just let those people in the superdome. we do not need to check these people
7-10 feet but u will see huge waves like never befor
1169. TheEdge
Anyone think the eye will cross west of lat/long 90?
Here's a link to a collection of waterlevel guage heights, winds, and barometers relevant to the storm. From USGS that lefty led with earlier.

Relevant Guages
I've evacuated..


I'm in Tallahasse staying by the capitol building. I can look out my window and see JEB.

Anyways, the hotel is FULL of NO People. Funny enough, they were all carrying bottles of wine. I said if I were you I'd drink too.

On the way we passed numerious red cross trucks and disaster aid vehicles that were heading the opposite way on I-10. The hotel is also a setup point for the national park service. They are heading too to help.

This will be very very bad...


BTW< latest storm track shows a slight shift to the WEST!!! Good for me bad for them :(
1172. wxfan
Edge, it had better move quickly, or it might, which would put NOLA in the feared NE quadrant.
EZ MOSNTSER THIS MIGHT HELP

open ur explorer window and go to internt options and make sure u allow videos with in webpages to be played. also make sure u allow adiuo as well. if that doesn't work u might need to reinstall drirectx. u can download to newest version by searching for it on google
Water was up 2 feet in Blackwater Bay when I left my home 3 hours ago. That's all I know about Pensacola's water right now.
1175. avlos
one of the scariest things about the hurricane itself is that the outflow is beginning to look even better to the west and that i feel the winds are still catching up to the pressure.... if the eye starts to to shrink we may see it get push gilbert for pressure/wind in our hemisphere. scary. my prayers for the souls of new orleans.
thanks wxfan
1177. GPTGUY
hi everyone im in Gulfport, MS. in a concrete hotel room off I-10 please say a prayer for all of us down here on the LA Coast, New Orleans, Gulfport, Biloxi, Pascagoula we are sooo scared down here!!!
xshe might cros 90w. as long as there is a western component it might happen but not by much i believe
1179. TheEdge
That was my thought wxfan......looks like it might have time if that trough doesn't give it a nudge.
ur welcome...lyons jus said on TWC that he does not see it making the turn before 90..that unless it makes a sudden shapr turn he thinks Mobile is spared a direct hit and that every hr that goes by makes it more likely for a direct hit on NO
1181. OBXER
Does anyone have any idea why the pressure has dropped to 902 mb and so have the winds, i thought that a pressure drop meant an increase in winds?
did u guys see that old lady interviewed pout side the superdome on fox news. i almost cried
this will beat 1935...it will beat gilbert
Lefty I did see her...and I chocked up..this is sooo sad
I saw the old lady too and it was sad. There are LOTS of people who shouldn't be in the superdome. My wife and I agreed if we couldn't drive out we'd ride a bike or walk.
1186. Jedkins
No this is a very large hurricane I don't think the storm can tighten up anymore,also this storm gets larger as it intensify so if the sutaind winds reach 200mph sustaind(GOD FORBID!)the windfield will expand significantly,I look at this as the worst hurricane I have ever seen in terms of size and strength.
We live in Daphne, AL and are seeing only a little wind and rain right now. They are showing Orange Beach, and there is a lot of surf and wind. Really cloudy now, definitely approaching. btw, Daphne is on the east side of Mobile Bay, at the head of the bay.
obx,apressure drop normally would corrolate to stronger winds but as for the past 2 days durring the daylight hours she has expanded her wind radii or wind field and that has slowed the increas and even casued a slight decrease in wind speed. in a few hrs do not be supprised to see a dramtic increase in windspeed like we have the past 2 nights
1189. afs
Lefty... the Superdome security is the only thing I'll disagree with you on today.

Imagine someone setting off a bomb when the eye-wall was over the Superdome. It could be just enough energy in the wrong place to cause the whole building to fail.

It's being done to protect them. It's an appropriate use of security.
Katrina's really putting a dent in that dry line......looks like I may have underestimated her effect on that trough.

I was trying to tell my GF about and she said that im jus gettin wrapped up in the hype like i always do in weather situations...regular folks outside of amatuer and professional meterology and outside of the Gulf Coast have NO idea of the magnitude of what is about to happen....this will shock the nation I believe
1192. TheEdge
If it crosses 90w will that mean less storm surge for Pochitrain (sp?)
1193. Dragoon
Pressure up to 903.
1194. Marduk
What's going to happen when it hits that front on the Mason-Dixon line?
I'm about 5-10 mins behind on my Digital DVR, so I haven't seen that lady yet....on Fox right?
In order to see new commenst I have to constantly refresh the screen. Is there any way I can see the comments as they are posted without having to refresh the screen every couple of minutes?
i know afs but man these people been in this heat for 4-6 hrs and the conditions are getting worse. i just want to see them inside out of the elments
WTNT42 KNHC 282047
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

KATRINA IS MAINTAINING A CLASSIC PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE AT 1755Z AND 1923Z WAS 902
MB...WHICH IS THE FOURTH LOWEST ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988...THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF
1935...AND HURRICANE ALLEN OF 1980. HAVING SAID THAT...DATA FROM
THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE
AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE TO 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND RATIO
IS NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS WE TYPICALLY USE...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 145 KT. HURRICANES DO NOT
MAINTAIN SUCH GREAT INTENSITY FOR VERY LONG. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO
OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE MECHANISMS...SUCH AS INCREASED VERTICAL
SHEAR...TO WEAKEN KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO MAKE
LANDFALL WITH CATEGORY 4 OR 5 INTENSITY.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. INITIAL
MOTION IS ABOUT 315/11. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFDL
HURRICANE MODEL'S TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AS HAS THE
LATEST NOGAPS RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO BOTH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS... AND TO THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. AMONG OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS...ONLY THE
U.K. MET. OFFICE IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SMALL CHANGE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AT THE NOISE LEVEL. ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...PARTICULARLY IN THE CASE OF A
HURRICANE AS LARGE AS THIS ONE. DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE
FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY
WHICH COUNTIES OR PARISHES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS.

ON THE BASIS OF AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND
DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED EVEN MORE OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
AT LEAST 150 N MI INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. CONSULT INLAND
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Survivor....water here in the sound, in east Santa Rosa county has hardly risen as of yet. Lower now than it was this am
West of 90 will put a hell of a lot of water into the lake.....but that might spare the backside winds from pushing the lake into the city.
on the bottom click the link to show new posts first. it helps alot.

yes on fox u should see it about now but i think i am behind as well onmy dvr
anyone think this will overtake Andrew as the costliest natural desaster in U.S. History???
1203. Dragoon
Unless something major happens, this is going to make what Andrew did seem like nothing.
1204. JeffM
Hey Jax...have you been given order to deploy yet? We are looking at staging in Baton Rouge on Tuesday evening.
we will have to watch this storm over night. i feel she will blow up again right befor landfall. that is a scary thought
1206. wxfan
But the gulf will get pushed into the city.
this will make andrew look like a cat 2. i just saw the img of man hold a newborn wating in line for the superdome. this is just to much
Does the Fox channel you all are watching have a live feed on the net. I don't have a TV in my office so I have the live feed for Ch. 4 on.

1209. TheEdge
that was my thought pseabury......
LEFTY -- Did the storm pass the warm Gulf loop yet?? Doesn't it have to pass over further warm water in front of LA?? (For example: Venice, LA has very deep, warm (really HOT) Gulf water. It is a deep sea fishing mecca. Do you think it will further intensify again?? The pressure is still low.

i duuno.i am watching both
This will make Andrew look like child's play. Was down there right after the hurricane, and aside from the wind damage (both homes and infrastructure) everything was back to habitable and cleanup was started within hours. If this dumps NO, there will be nearly permanent damage to the infrastructure, and it will be weeks if not months before rebuilding can begin. There really was not a water component to Andrew like here. Wind... and water as I said will make Andrew look like it should have been TS Andrew
They will never get all of those people in the Dome. They are going to have to open some o fthe high rises. Even if they are not safe. It will be a mad house if people are still on the streets when they start getting 50mph+ winds. By then some water will be coming in too.
u guys see the eyewall?? seems to be getting clearer and more concetric...
No doubt surge will still be an issue.....but if it tracks worst case, there's no chance of nola staying dry in any area. PERIOD. Tracking to the west and moving north while west of the city is probably the best that can be hoped for now.
already has surpassed andrew....
the gulf loop extends from the middle of the gulf right up to the shore. the temps ofshore of no is the hotest in the gulf. she has expanded in radii and that ahs caused the winds to lessen. she has blown up everty night so far and no reason to think it would not happen again tonight
The whole eye wall is on radar now.
They will not get everyone in the Dome at this rate...you are correct. Maybe they are counting on some people running out of patience and leaving.

I heard that the NHC recommended that the high-rises be evactuated.....so I'm not sure they'll put people there.
1220. GetReal
Well I'm back could not get any sleep. the center appears to be tightening again, possibly strengthening. Wait until the diurinal effect kicks in tonight. Also she appears to be targeting Port Fourchon, just west of Grande Isle, for landfall.
whenit started to downpour a minute ago people started flipping out
Remember that Andrew did not hit Miami directly. If it had it would have been much worse. Plus Andrew was a much smaller storm.
Psea, I know they may not be safe, but they are safer then being on the streets or in low buildings. If they are left on the streets there will be rioting.
Still calling for landfall 60 miles west of New Orleans. Very serious, but not catastrophic. The difference between hundreds lost and 200000+ lost.
1225. rgeer68
Lefty, I guess there's no cooler water down deep for her to suck up?
Is this not the most circular eye you guys have seen in a hurricane???
60 miles W of NO wouldn't be nice for Baton Rouge
Is 60 miles really going to make that much of a difference for NO? It seems like she is too big and too strong for 60 miles to mean much. HUGE SURGE one E side.
1229. aquak9
watching the fox news feed...sick to my stomach...tree and power trucks already staging along the east end of I-10 here in duval and nassau counties (near jacksonville)...does the utter helplessness get to any one as it does me? the superdome feed brought tears
Andrew was very, very bad, but it was mostly wind damage...this would be far worse...the complete inundation of New Orleans...the city will be, in a word, GONE...is this really happening???
ur wrong cosmic. the storm surge alone will flood no. the levis all most were breached by lilly i think it was. this storms storm surge will be 25-35ft with 45ft waves ontop of that. they already stated that any landfall west or east of no would result in catastrophic loss of life
1232. GetReal
60 miles is to far to the left for final landfall (eroded marsh). Katrina will run out of open ocean before then.
1233. wxgssr
OK, I have seen enough. I'm heading out of Diamondhead MS in 10 mins to be with my family over in FL.

Hope I have a house this time tomorrow. I have prepared it as best as possible. The roof will either hold, or it won't.

Best of luck to all in the path.....Cya'll later.
Still almost nothing here.... eventhough we are less than 12 hours from LF
Make that 20000 lost. Typo. Such a horrible situation. My prayers are with all those in the area. Still calling for landfall 60 miles west of New Orleans. Around Houma. Only hundreds lost(only:(....so sad
.
.JeffM....don't count on staging in Baton Rouge. That may be the hardest hit area.
1236. Jedkins
It could restrengthen and become even stronger because this storm has had deeper flare - ups of convection and strengthening over night because day light is less favorable for extreme convection over water,and a category 5 needs extreme convection to sustain itself as a category 5 so it could become ven more intense over night but daylight cap has limited extreme convection,it is producing still very deep moist convection but I dont think the daylight hours will allow extreme convection over water but as the sun sets I am afrsid it is possible it could further strengthen,no signs of eyewall repacement at all,and that is really the only reson it has weakened slightly.
how do you think BR will be hardest hit? we're 150 miles inland---our meteorologists are projected 70 mph winds at most.
band with the begining of the ts force winds will be moving into lousianai in the next hr. it wwill start for no in the next hr and a half
i'm not expecting this to be a walk in the park Cosmic, but I dont think destruction will be as bad here as it is further south.
1240. GetReal
Just a reminder, I will be 22 miles south of NOLA after 1900 hours tonight. I will attempt to make post of observations until power or internet access is lost.
u will see winds in excess of 130mph i can gurantee that. br is not safe i have stated this all day
What's with this guage height lefty? (or anyone in nola)

Loyalo Canal Nola

Did they start pumping and that dropped the levels?...possibly close the locks and start pumping?

I just finished reading Robert L. Foster's book "Disaster in Paradise", which tells the stories of people who survived a direct hit from the 1989 strong category 4/weak category 5 Hurricane Hugo and the inconceivable aftermath of that killer storm. Hugo passed directly over St. Croix and virtually wiped out the island before going on to inflict more suffering and damage when it made a direct hit to the US mainland at South Carolina.

"Disaster" is one of the most frightening books I have ever read. Survivor accounts of the storm itself include descriptions the unnerving volume of the howling wind as comparable to having a 747 jet flying 15 feet directly over your head for what seems to be days at a time even though it was really only a few hours. Even more disturbing than the tales of "the night the roofs went flying" were the accounts of the disasters that occured after the storm had passed: severe food and potable water shortages; massive looting; and living and trying to rebuild your life without having electricity, running water, sanitation services, and telephone service for up to six months.

It's a shame that this book seems to be put of print (I did find one autographed copy for sale using Google if anyone is interested) - I feel "Disaster" should be on the required reading list of anyone living in/near a potential hurricane strike zone.

I was once a notherner who thought my experience with tornados had adequately prepared me for living on a Caribbean Island. Tropical Storm Jeanne, which passed over our new home last year, was an eye-opening 24 hours in which I learned that experiencing tornados had in no way at all prepared me for that relatively mild tropical storm, let alone a major hurricane. I am grateful to have had this wake-up call about giving hurricanes the respect and fear they deserve without having to endure significant damage or even much inconvenience.

I can't echo the advice given by so many others here about to treating Katrina -- and every hurricane -- as though your life were at stake. You'll be far better off if you make preparations for the very worst case scenario and don't end up needing them than doing minimal planning and wind up caught in a more dangerous situation than anyone expected.

Be safe, everyone. There are a whole lot of prayers going out for the folks whose homes are in Katrina's path.

--The CrucianCrip

1244. aquak9
sheraque, whirlwind, jed and evan...most of the regular posters aren't on...lefty how are you still functional? 2 weeks ago..."TD 10 dead, never to rise again"..and now we can only sit and watch this horror unfold.
1245. LALady
Tornado watch just issued...Livingston Parish all the way to the east.
People on I-10 are beigninning to panic as gas stations are beginning to close...
do u guys think the pressure has leveled off for good and that it wont be going any lower?
this storm will take time to weaken when she moves inland. baton rouge will see winds in excess of 130 mph and i hope u r prepared. its to late to leave now
GetReal - you going to the Alliance area or what? And why? Just curious. And I'll pray for you.
i see atleast another 10mb over night
FEMA has spent the day pre-positioning assets..thats why the presdient declared early
1252. aquak9
getreal, unless you're going in on a helo...aren't the roads basicly closed? are you emergeency/medical or nat'l guard---Godspeed and prayers either way
1253. Jedkins
No the water off the west coast of florida I think is similar or hotter than that around 90 to 94 on the west coast of florida (Which is where I live)but the water near LA is in the low 90's too right?
some people tend to think of hurricanes as a a coastal storm. this storm will casue extensive damage all the way to tenn and thats from the nhc director early to day
1255. IKE
Why the heck is anything on Bourbon Street open and why is anyone there drinking and shucking oysters? An incredibly stupid thing for these people to do. Do they simply not realize what they are soon to face or either don't care or think it will go somewhere else.
The mayor says it will flood. He also says it will take a week or two to drain the city.
1257. aquak9
hi jaxadj...jax here too...the feeds out of NOLA...your opinions?
who ever is in baton rouge i will pray for you cause u will be in a fight for your life tonight. its that kind of thinking that will reslut on tons of loss of life. u will see sever damage from this storm. u are in a inland hurricane warning. i hope u know what that means
1259. Jedkins
I am on lol what are you talkin about aquak.
i understand the severity lefty. but pardon me if i'm more inclined to believe the tons of trained meterologists we have in our local area, including those at LSU, over you. thanks for the prayers, they are appreciated.
How often are the coordinates updated to the public? Can I keep refreshing this image to get updates?Link
1262. aquak9
ike do you have a link to the bourbon st activity? aren't the evac's mandatory? is it legal to still be boozing people up? (it's the end of thier world as they know it)
do you all realise that river traffic into the heart of the country will be crippled THIS IS BIG FOR THE WHOLE USA
IKE. - The owners of those establishments should be ashamed of themselves and are causing a real danger in order to sell a few more beers. I'm ashamed that those people are from MY city.

1265. IKE
I'm watching/listening to Sheppard Smith on FoxNews. You have a link to watch it?
1266. aquak9
sorry jed.I don't know how to tell who's on except by posts..didn't see any from you...so sorry..only w/respect for you and what you have to post...how can you tell who's on?
lol.this si not from me.its from the nhc.i hope ur prepared and when it gets bad i hope u have a safe room. use the bathroom and get in the tub. u need to get the matress off your bed and cover urself with it. no matter what happens u need to stay under that matress. you might lose your roof but do not get up stay as low as you can. i am sorry for the night u will have ahead of you. god bless your sould and i will pray for u
The mayor is also counting on using the pumps to get the water out in that time frame. Those pumps will not run again. He is being very optimistic.
CajunKid - As I said earlier....the delta will be unrecognizable on Tuesday. What this means is that the passes (SW pass et al) will not exist like they do today. There will be hundreds of cargo ships, tankers, etc in the coming days and weeks that will have no place to go.

Putting aside the problem of not having a navicable channel anymore, what port are they going to go to? The Port of New Orleans? Yeah right.

HurricaneSurvivor: Welcome to Tallahassee! Make yourself at home. We do not claim Jeb as our own though. =0)

Tallahassee's weather is this:

70% chance of rain with winds between 20/30mph with higher gusts in rain bands.

I'm one of the crazy ones that if I didn't live at home and have work tomorrow and school, I would have gone to Pensacola to experience more of the storm.

I hope they let all those people into the SuperDome soon because they weather will start to get real bad soon.
14 + hrs of tropical storm force winds. Ya'll need to listen to lefty if you are inland. Baton Rouge will see gusts to 135 easy.
Has anyone heard anything about the Oil Rigs??? and the rumors that gas could be 4-5 dollars a gallon in some places of the country by Wednesday???
geauxtigers......IMO you're probably in a much better place than New Orleans.....but I think you should be prepared for the worse.....and be thankful if the best happens. The best for you as I see it is 70-90 MPH winds with gusts to 100+...all from the north. The worst would be 110-130 MPH winds...from the south then east then west. My prayers are with you and I hope that you are in a strong home, or at least have a safe room in your home. Go out now and add to the ice and water that you have.
New Orleans radar loop: http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

You can see the eye already.
I heard Bob Brinker demanding that Bush release from the reserve today so that the price does not skyrocket.

Not to get in to politics, but I am glad that we did not break in to the reserve because we were tired of high prices.
1276. aquak9
people just dont realize (even in my area) this is gonna impact the economy terribly....many people think "oh, slow news day, media's gonna concentrate on the weather, haha" $70 buck a barrel? Try eighty.
Nothing in the area will be recognizable by tuesday.
I hate the helplessness.
I filled up today. On Friday the stock market thought it would go towards my area and thus, they kept the prices low. Now it's going to hit some of the oil rigs and thus, on Monday and Tuesday, the price for oil will go up a lot.

This should influence an increase in gas prices by at least a 1/2 dollar to a dollar or more.

I was taking no chances and filled up today.
and so you know here is the weather forcast for no who we all know will see the eye wall and 175 mph. it does not state anything about this. thats the thing. u people need to understand that iuf u are in a warning u r goin to see sugnificant damage baton rouge is in a hurricane warning. i wonder why hmmm, maybe there is a cat 5 comming

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...
THEN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 60 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 45 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 105 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 60 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 125 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AND DECREASING TO WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 115 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS 25 TO 55 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 20 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS 20 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
.FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 20 PERCENT.

aquak....lurking....
1280. aquak9
What were they thinking???

"thinning the herds"???

WHY did they wait till TOO LATE??
Those are the tornado bands coming in to NO now. There are still blocks of people to get in to the Dome.
so many people will lose there lives tonight cause they think they are safe. i am so sorry the news has focused on the coast and no and not on the inland areas
1284. 147257
damn TS winds are starting now and damn 215 miles of the eye is exeriencing TS winds :S suc6 people out there
1285. aquak9
how am I supposed to know who's on?

sheraque...what are your feelings...
very good pint lefty
1287. IKE
Joe Bastardi on Fox News saying he called it as of Friday...landfall in SE LA and Mississippi. NO HE DIDN'T! He is the meteorologist for Florida Network News and on Friday he was saying a direct hit here in the panhandle of Florida. Sorry Joe...you're either an idiot for saying what you just said on Fox News and a total BS-er.
1288. 147257
i dont wanna know what happened tomorow is it likely btw the hurricane will strengten again?
u see the ships model? its calling for a 180MPH Landfall!!
Joe did call it I think, but then when the models came in to consensus on Panhandle he went with them. StormTop called the whole time.
if any of you are in a hurricane warning i hope u have made all ur preperations. time is almost up
Long time avid reader first time poster.

Writing from Baton Rouge after finishing getting every thing readied. How all here is in BR tonight?
DIERNAL PERIOD. She will strengthen but I don't think that makes much of a difference now.
NHC now saying landfall Grand Isle to 5 E of NO..
Is Sheraqueenofthebeach the monitor on here? Just curious.
1296. SEFL
The price of a barrel of oil may go up $2-3 tomorrow because of this storm. But that is simply traders reacting to the oresent situation. This is affecting a very small part of worldwide production. Gasoline prices will be no where near $4-5 a gallon. And shipping on the Mississippi River while it will be affected will not be catastrophic. Ships that would have gone to N.O. will go elsewhere. Just temporary disruptions.

This will be a distructive event for N.O. and the Gulf Coast. It will not have lasting national or international effect.
it loos like baton rouge will see the eye of the storm and will be in the eye wall for some time. all people in baton rouge be prepared for one of the worst nights u will ever experiance
Bastardi just said he believes it will come in just a bit east of New Orleans. Yes, Stormtop did nail it all along. I am glad he did. I am in Gulfport and made my preps before anyone else. I am set for a rough 24 hours.
New from Baton Rouge here, been reading all weekend. It's been amazing on the WV loop how this thing has been expanding and gulping up the Gulf and is now going to dump that all over the US, probably until Friday. LA/MS is just the beginning of a LOT of damage. I'm all hunkered down with supplies, hoping we'll be spared winds that are too horrible.
At this point no matter if you are in Houma, New Orleans, Grand Isle, Buras, Gulfport, Biloxi, Pascagoula and Hattiesburg. -- This WILL be CATASTROPHIC...and liek Lefty said the Inlad Areas, which are not really prepared will be hit hard too
ur wrong. 25 percent of the usa oil is produced in the gulf. 2/3rds of the oild rigs may not make it thru the storm. there are pipelines that will not make it thru the storm. the refineries will be damaged and production will be unable to meet demand. its a scary situation. the mayer of no said expect to pay no less than 4.50 for gas in no gets a direct hit
Question:

Can anyone give me an idea of Katrina's top wind gusts currently.

Thank You
1303. IKE
Maybe Joe called it after the models shifted west, but I was listening on the local radio station Friday morning. He said...and I'm quoting..."a direct hit between Pensacola and Cape San Blas". I'm glad it didn't materialize for my sake, but he's bullshooting on Fox News saying he called it all along. Thanks Joe...my opinion of what you think just went down about 99% for lying.
1304. 147257
I feel sorry for new orleans
SEFL - I have to disagree with you on the disruption to the Port and shipping. It will be very widely felt. You can't send ships to ports that already operate at full capacity. At least not without impact. Keep in mind that I refer to the "Port of Nola" as more than just shipping as well. There are many oil/gas facilities/terminals/pipelines that will be severely affected.
I served 3 1/2 years in Iwakuni, Japan in the early 90's during my Marine Corps days. I've ridden out typhoons of varying strength in the poured concrete barracks on base in Iwakuni, as well as in Okinawa.

Trust me when I say that a 120mph storm is not a joke. I've been in such a direct hit and I can't even IMAGINE 175mph, PLUS all of the water. Japan is built for hurricanes... NOLA is not.

If Lefty is right, and this blows back up to where it was, or even stronger, this will be the most significant loss of life we have ever seen outside of armed conflict. Even a stiff Cat 5 will probably kill 1000+ just because of the water and unique situation in NOLA.

As a weather enthusiast, I can't help but admire the beauty and utter power of this storm. This, however, is tempered by the severe loss of life that I envision over the next 24-48 hours. If the worst case pans out, 24-48 hours would likely just be the beginning of suffering. Remember this day, folks. I'm recording Fox News for the next 24+ hours so that I can remember. When we look back at the weather, the effect on humanity can sometimes be downplayed. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we'll have one of those "where were you when..." moments to look back on for the rest of our lives. Put politics, economics and any other contentious issue aside and soak in the utter reality of impending death on a massive scale. It's truly sobering.

-Wood
Thanks, LEFTY. That note on FIRST POSTYED really helps/
Lefty,

I think the Baton Rouge comments are a little unjustified. I was here for Andrew where we took a direct hit. The winds averaged 70-75mph. I think Andrew hit with 135-140mph winds. We'll be on the west side and 60 miles from the center of this one. Even with it being a Cat 5 I don't see the winds over 75mph.
1309. aquak9
lefty I don't know if you're saying I'm wrong or sefl's wrong, either way I STILL think this will impact the nat'l economy, maybe not per-barrel prices but definitely at-the-pump prices.
165 with gusts close to 200 if not higher
US has enough now in strategic reserve to compensate ofr all of Gulf Oil Production for one full year...and bush will release fro this...that said there will be the initial panic price hike....i think gas will spike to high 3's...before settling to $3.35 - 3.50/gallon...the worse effect will be the US Economy which has been faltering...this will push us into a recession...
POTMROTS: Gusts are probably around 200 mph or even higher.
1313. RyanFSU
Joe Bastardi said on Fox 5 minutes ago: Tacking on the motion of the storm on the East side is not based anywhere in physics. Okay Joe, did you know the effect goes away when the storm is stationary? His expert status is only within his own company and does not extend anywhere near academia where his forecasts are humorous, and his explanations afterwards are jokes.
this storm is twice the size of andrew. andrew was a cat 3. this is a strong cat 5. the director of the nhc said he expects major damage all the way to tenn. what makes u think baton rougwe is immune. god bless ur soul. i hope u have a safe room and a steardy home. the nhc has stated that almost all wooden structures will fail. most brick homes will lose there roofs. have a safe night . i gues ignorance is bliss
Not trying to step on anyone's ego...but you're not thinking big enough with just oil/gas. That will be a good portion of effect....but there are many other good/products that come in through coastal louisiana. Anyone think they'll be eating Gulf Crabs or Shrimp next spring/summer? PLus all the cargo that comes in, or goes out for that matter down the mississippi.

Most of the world pay $4 or $5 a gallon. I think the US can survive a price hike.
3" of rain per hr bout to move in on Grand Isle
Steve Lyons on TWC is still putting out plenty of hope that this will weaken to a Cat 4, or minimal Cat 5. Everyone else seems to disagree, some to a large extent. Steve is usually pretty accurate and does a good job of providing some education about why he believes what he does.

So... what's the scoop here? It just doesn't seem very likely to even a total amateur like myself due to the diurnal effect about to come into play and the steam bath waters. Which is the safer bet?

-Wood
I'll briefly repeat what I said in an earlier blog.
When Katrina gets a final snort of one of the deepest pools of some of the hottest water on the planet before landfall, it will carry it and drop it along the entire track of the storm as it heads north. The grim reality of what will happen in NOLA tomorrow will be made worse by what comes next and that is that it will leave a trail of death and destruction from flooding wherever it goes. Yes the winds may subside by Tennessee but all along the entire track need to prepare NOW. All local, state and fed. agencies will be stretched beyond their limit. Anyone that is able should contact their local emergency services and volunteer to help any way they can ASAP. This isn't over after Katrina ravages NOLA folks.

We aren't at the height of the season yet and here comes TD13, already looking much worse than old TD10 looked. I doubt Katrina will leave a much of a cold water wake anywhere near where she is now, so the gulf states are just as much of a target next week as they are now. Gives me chills to say it but it could get much worse before it gets any better. That's the reality of it. Go ahead, volunteer some where.
THATS why is said the bigger effect is on the US Economy!!
Cane, this storm is sooo much larger than Andrew add in the 40mph higher winds at least and the distribuition of these winds outward as the alnd starts to effect her. If you make it you may be able to walk out to a bright sunny day between 8 and 10 in the morning. That will mark the halfway point. Then you pray you make the second half.
1322. 147257
TD 13 excist damn if this one is passed by the next will come
1323. SEFL
slightly less than 1/2 of the oil we use in this country is produced here. So if 25% of US production is in the gulf and 2/3rds is damaged that is 16% of US production. Overall this then affects the US production by about 8%. Not insignificant but easily made up. As for prices in N.O. after the storm. Anyone who tries to sell gas for $4.50 ought to be summarily executed because that defines price gouging.
1324. sewmap
Just heard that P-cola is supposed to get 25 to 35 ft waves! WOW! I feel for people with homes on the barrier island over here!
lolto the guys in baton rouige. they are expecting strong hurroicane force winds as afr away as alabama even if the eye makes landfall at no. u need to understand the severity of the situation. u will have a night in hell. i can not be any more blunt. if u have not made prperations u need to. u also need to question can your house wistand 130+mph winds
Lefty,
Winds were clocked at 200 + before the equipment was ripped down in Andrew..... much more than a 3 dear.
1327. BigBad
National Weather Service Experimental Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA hand corner under radar image)

Auto refreshes so image is never more than 5 to 10 minutes old. Make sure to turn auto refresh on (default is off)(lower right

Link

Sorry if this is a repost.
If NO get's Flooded with what is it now 28 ft. of water...how long would it take for them to pump it out...assuming that the pumps still work, which they probably won't.
i agree ..this will be felt very far inland and it is a mistake to just concetrate on NO...i know this will seem harsh but NO's fate is sealed...what will happen there will happen...lets not forget on all the other area's
Lefty,

I stated my reasoning. I'm not saying we're immune. Baton Rouge doesn't have the same geography as they have even 50 miles to the east. There is a lot of land and trees to buffer those 175 mph winds.
1331. 147257
when it will make landfall? over 15 hours?
That was in Florida Shera. This is the single worst area for a storm. Nothing like other areas.
w/outside pumps...3 to 6 mos..and will be 28-35 foor surge..w/40-50 foot waves on top of that!!!
What happened to Dr. Masters? Update long over due......
the nhc has stated u can not opredict what the intensity will be.. these intense storms are not understood. the forcast is for 160mohs at landfall. it might be a safe bet to expect that or higher
1337. SEFL
Orleans77, what you are spewing is BS. The US economy has not been faltering. It has been growing at 3.5-4.0 for some time now. Recession!!! Talk about catastrophizing. There will be impacts such as shipping which will be quickly absorbed by other methods and ports. New Orleans is not the only port of entry in the country and the Mississippi River is not the only way to move goods north and south.
SEFL - Again, I'm not even talking about PRODUCTION. I'm talking about transfer, refinement, etc. Pretend that we don't produce any oil from the Gulf. That still leaves the problem that international supplies come into a lot of terminals for offloading and subsequent refinement on the Gulf Coast. Fourchon, New Orleans (houma), west to Galveston/Texas City.

And again, that's just oil, shich is not the only thing that comes to port. Done with this line of discussion.....back to the storm proper.
1339. 147257
how about new orleans did most people evacueated already looks like the storm is aiming at it
1340. sewmap
And to think the worst part of the Hurricane season is just beginning!?!:(

How many people do they think will be in NO when Katrina hits?
they will be blown down. the nhc put out a statemnt i will try to find it. it stated maost treas will be blow down. all building wills ee signifact damage. all wooden buildings will be blown down. most birck buildings will lose their roofs. large debri as large as house hold applainces and small vehicles will be air borne
SEFL what do we do with 1 million refugees? How about the poeple that do not make any more than they did 5 years ago who already can not afford gas? Insurance? That's a laugh. No more insurance for those of us in the paths of these storms. Hell maybe the will be generous and sell coverage for 50% of home value.
1343. Laddy
The loss of crude oil production is one thing. Some of that can be made up from releases from the SPR. How are you going to make up the loss of refinery capacity if that comes to pass? The US is already running near max refining capacity.
it is not BS...Inflation is on the rise..housing starts are down this month...consumer confidence is down this month..orders for durable goods took their biggest hit since 2003 this month...if not faltering definetly a large hiccup...

and...if you remember 9/11 eventhough it only affected one part of the US quite def threw us into a recession..this has a potential to have a much larger impact..and much larger loss of life...not to mention the 150 to 300 billion cost that is now being estimated!
thank you peasbury...than you lady...thank you lefty
1346. 147257
damn this really sucks :S
We are long overdue and i hope this wakes us up, we have been living on oil way too long. If we can go to the moon in a decade we can implement and anti oil energy campaign.
here it is read this please


THIS IS FROM THE NWS IN NEW ORLEANS..DEVESTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS..PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL LEAVING MOST HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAME LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS..PETS..AND LIVESTOCK WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK..POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS..AND MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS..THE VAST MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT TOTALLY DEFOLIATED..FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN, LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED..
They will be blown down and all of those things will happen IF you are in the EYEWALL.
Here's the infamous NWS statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLIX/0508281550.wwus74.html
Did anyone notice that Tropical Depression 13 has formed?
1352. K8tina
leftyy420 -- I think it was the 4pm CDT advisory 24 that said soemthing about the destruction of wooden homes and brick houses... not sure though as I have been playing with the kids and not watching the weblog.
Four foot surge already at Waveland MS:

Link

Low tide is roughly now for the LA/MS/AL coast, and the water heights are going to start shooting up rapidly even with the storm so far off the coast as the tides turn. As the sun sets here in Massachusetts everyone's thoughts are with all of you who have property, friends, and loved ones in the path of the storm.
i agree ..the US and OUR Foreign Policy is hostage to reliance on foreign oil..We need to find alternative energies...this should be TOP priority....
bcb333 keep your comments to yourself. No room for Politics.
Shepard Smith is in the French Quarter. Crazy.
EvanKisseloff: Surprisingly, yes... TWC mentioned it in the Tropical Update last hour. Reloading the bazooka again...
Orleans77 I couldn't bring myself to say that but that is the case. We can only hope everything there that can be done is being done. I just found out 4 paramedics at a conference from here are stranded in NO, probably at the Dome. OMG what a living hell that will be starting tonight, ending???
Sheraqueenofthebeach

Andrew hit LA as a cat 3...the 200 mph winds were in FL.
Jus imagine if during all this Venuzvela which provides 9% of our oil decides to shut us off..wed have no choice but to invade them and seize their oil fields...
1361. SEFL
Inflation is not on the rise, new homes sales were down last month, but housing starts were up. The US economy was already down 9/11/01. This is a $400 trillion economy. Even a loss of $300 billion is less than 1/10th of 1%. Of course it effects the people in Loiusiana but don't try to expand this beyond the personal devastation going on in and around N.O.
Should have been right after 9/11 '77. Where are you 77?
1363. 147257
8 hours remaining for hurricane winds make landfall
1364. newinfl
Jefferson Parish advised that he has closed his 911 center due to building not able to with stand 80 mph winds. 991 will not be available in his parish.
We're going back to here :

Politics Current Storm
XX

We need to stay here:

Politics Current Storm
XX

u guys check this link out. it is the forcast for new orleans. this si the forcast he is suing to support his claim. i belive we can all agree the forcast is wrong

Link
1367. SEFL
"Posted By: Orleans77 at 6:32 PM EDT on August 28, 2005.
Jus imagine if during all this Venuzvela which provides 9% of our oil decides to shut us off..wed have no choice but to invade them and seize their oil fields..."

What crap.
Ahhhhh...spaces didn't work out for me. Yougtet my drift. I need to go eat though...gonna be a long night watching this.
The weather channel has reported hurricane force winds in 3.5 hours....
1370. TheEdge
I really didn't join this site and come to visit these "weather" blogs to hear more Bush bashing or get lessons in economics from people with limited knowledge. Can we please stick to the Weather!
it calls for 60 mph tonight and diminishing to 40 mph tomm and is the exact same forcast for baton rouge
and SEFL,,while us spewing how its "only" 16% of our production ...with production at full capacity do you really honestly think a 16% loss of oil would not SERIOUSLY affect the economic activity of this nation?? Thats like saying if American Airlines would instantly lose 16% of its planes, it would easily bounce back...
Hey, i've been looking at the Radar and I think the eye is starting to turn north, and maybe even a hint towards the west...it's been a few loops now, so it's probably less and less likely that it's a wobble.
SEFL this is not the normal storm. Worst place possible and stronger and bigger than has been seen in years. The Gulf Coast will no longer have the protrusion sticking out from LA. Maps will have to be changed. I thinkif you listened to the people on this board you would realize how big this is. Someone earlier stated that this was "Our Tsunami" They are right.
1375. Canenut
At least the NWS NOLA didn't sugar coat it. This is probably the most severe statement issued by the NWS.
stay focused u guys. we have fellow bloggers in harms way and we need to let them know. u have 4-6 hrs to make preperations if u have not yet. u need to secure ur poperty set up a safe room and go get any supplies u would need to survive 2-4 weeks with out power
I apologize guys..i just have very little patience for people who have no real clue about economics and how it affects the nation and our foreign policy..enuff said...
1378. flick
In NE Washington Parish here. About 20 minutes ago we had our first band of rain, a little thunder. It's been getting breezier.
Thanks Lefy...you are right..again i apologize...this is supposed to be about WX..guess i took being attacked little too personal
help me get these people to see the danger. click this link and tell me where it says a cat 5 is comming


Link
I was just about to ask this but the Weather Channel just pointed it out.... The system is now moving almost due North or slightly west of due North...

If it continues, the path would take it to the east of New Orleans but any wobble west would hurt New Orleans big time, just as any wobble east (which I think is more possible) could hurt areas to the east of New Orleans even more.

But it definitely looks like the turn has happened now. Look at the Long range loop out of New Orleans and draw a line south to the center and it is definitely moving North, with a slight west component.

The question is: Anyone else seeing this? The Weather Channel is so I guess so.... but as I said last night, when it turns North, if you are North of the center then beware.
Flick Are you in a Flood area?
look at the forcast for tonight and tommorow
1384. LALady
lefty:

Baton Rouge is also to the west of the storm so we won't get near the wind that you are predicting.
You people and your politics... drop it... people are about to die and you're arguing over this crap. I've been unemployed for over a year, living on scraps I've picked up from consulting. I'm moving 300 miles tomorrow, in fact. Who do I blame? Myself... ONLY. I put myself in this situation. I drive places I don't really need to... and so do you. Has nothing to do with the economy health or anything else. Either you're in a position to prosper or you're not. You either make good decisions, or you don't. Life sometimes kicks you in the nards. Welcome to life. It will never be Utopia, hurricane or not... republican or democrat in the white house. During the late 90s I was making less than I will be next week.... quite a bit less, in fact... and doing largely the same thing. ... but... but... the economy was SO good back then, right? BS... I see NO difference in many job sectors today than I did back then. Housing and gas cost more... big deal... I'll live... many in NOLA will not.

There are plenty of jobs out there. The job sites prove that handily enough, as do the help wanted ads in the newspaper. Friend of mine just got the best job of his life... blue collar, no less. Grow up... talk weather.

-Wood

1386. Valence
Souldn't we be getting some more reocon data soon? Or have I already missed it?

And aslo, will sever intensity of the storm, will they continue to fly into there even after the storm has made landfall? Not many ground level instruments are going to survive the eyewall.
If I'm not mistaken the SOG under mandatory evac. is EMS/fire/rescue operations cease when the wind hits 60. That rule gets broken alot when lives are at stake, however, but don't count on it.
u are wrong. based on current movement and track batton rouge will likley be in the eye wall or near it for a period of 4-6 hrs
YOU WILL TO LALADY. I do not think you realize how big she is. If you are 170 miles east or west of the eye you will not see TOO much damage. 170 miles. That may be conservative for the east side.
1390. K8tina
Yes, please, let us all stay focused on the hurricane (and weather-related stuff). I know some ppl are very passionate about their feelings on other topics, but could we all try to stay focused on this and leave the *other* stuff for another day (say, one that is more meteorologically slower)?

I have gained sooooo much knowledge from my fellow bloggers about hurricanes and other weather issues. Thank you to everyone who has been keeping up the continuous info on this storm and helping those out there who may be in the path of this storm!

Okay, enough sappy talk... let's get back to the weather!!! :-)
if not longer.
Fox just showed a guy going surfing on the AL shoreline.
Valence..next flight scheduled for 0000Z (2000 EST)
1394. Valence
Lefty-

About the local weather forecast: at least they did say a 100% chance of rain, and have every possible watch/warning posted.
Lefty, thats weird!
ur conditions will be come bad in 4-6 hrs and than u will be stuck, u can not get supplies or prepare ur property of go to a safer location. u really need to listen and stop being niave
1397. Valence
Thank you Orleans,

BTW, you're obviously not in the Big Easy right now, so where are you?
Yes, let's stick to the weather instead of ludicrous comments about invading and looting another country's assets.
Lefty,

Do you even know where Baton Rouge is located? The eyewall isn't going to come anywhere close to us.
batton rouge is in a hurricane warning for a reason. i am not making a word of this up. i fear for ur lives i am sorry. u will have the worst night of ur life
actually basoed on its new forcasted landfall based on current movements u will be near the eyye wall or in it for a period of time. the eye is 30 miles wide.
Politics aside, severe damage to the infrastructure in SE LA would likely cause some short term gasoline supply disruptions and set us up for a touch-and-go fuel oil situation this winter. By severe I mean total closure of at least one refinery with limited equipment, people, power, and access available to get it restarted again. Refinery utilization in the US is running above 99% right now and Venezuela's been sending more and more of their finished products to Ecuador and Cuba. A national spike in oil prices to $3.25 seems likely in this scenario.

Note that this has nothing to do with shut-ins and damage to oil and gas facilities off-shore. This analysis:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL122005_gomex_oil.html

which was quite successful with predicting Ivan's impact is calling for a net loss of 12.8 million barrels of output due to Katrina. It is true that this is only 1.5 days of Saudi output, but try asking an energy trader what the impact of even a two-day Saudi embargo would be on energy prices in today's market.

All in all, however, we all have to hope that the worst we get from this is gasoline supply disruptions, and not 1000s of dead loved ones.
Lefty is right 100mph winds 100 miles inland. I saw this during HUGO and she only had 135 to 145 winds at land fall.
Cane i think Lefty is right
1405. avlos
is anyone else suprised at the strength of the southern half of this storm?
1406. K8tina
I've always wondered why they post everything on NHC in EDT -- is it b/c they are in Miami (which is in the eastern time zone)? Anyways, I'm waiting to see what the next advisory says before determining whether it's headed for NO or Baton Rouge (or even MS). As someone said earlier, when a storm is as big as Katrina is, there's no telling where it's going to go!
Just a thought learned from Ivan- In almost a year, I have never heard anyone say they would stay again. Repeatedly, people described it as the 'most terrifying night of their lives.' I am not talking about things I read, saw, or heard second hand. I am speaking of friends who stayed...
this is the link to the old forcast track and it appears she will make landfall left of this. u were allready going to be close to the eye wall but now u will likely be in it for a period of time

Link
i agree 100% boston
1410. Valence
One thing i've noticed:

Because there is still a lot we do not know about hurricanes, specificially with regards to intensity forecasts, most TV weather men are always pretty cautious when they give their reports. "This storm could wobble East, you roof might come off, you may not have power for x days", etc.

Some people hear that and immediately take the attitude that "It wont happen to me". Its not so much complacency as it is arrogance or ignorance. IT NOT ONLY CAN HAPPEN, ITS HAPPENING. LOOK OUT YOUR WINDOW!

avlos- It has been that way since Florida weakend the N side but not the S. It is very intresting though.
and hugo was not as big as this storm. this si the strongest storm since cammile and she is almost at camilee strength and twice as big
1413. sallyb
Does anyone have a live feed site from NO?
I'm stickin' to my guns. 75 mph here in B.R. I do appreciate the concern though. I won't push the debate any further. We're prepared and will be safe.
Meant to say national spike in gasoline to $3.25, of course, not oil.
u know what guys i am done trying to convince them. when all hell breaks lose they will than know. please have a safe night
1417. SFLborn
http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

live feed for Ch. 4

Though I wish I could get a Fox live feed.

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoadLink
Lefty,

Have been (mostly) lurking and I appreciate your efforts to educate people and get them to safety. I looked at your link

click this link and tell me where it says a cat 5 is comming

and found the same drivel as weather.com puts on their site. Someday someone will take them to task (legally) for understating the gravity of the situation.

Baton Rouge will not be in the eyewall unless it goes further west. Baton Rouge is off to the North and West of New Orleans.... They will get winds between 50/80mph sustained and higher gusts. That is bad enough. But I don't see it getting over 100mph in the area.


BTW, this storm is big.... they have updated the forecast in Tallahassee to a 90% chance of rain and now forecast winds between 35 to 50mph with higher gusts in the rain bands.

Also, Steve Lyons from the Weather Channel just stated it looks like it may hit the very southern tip of Louisiana and push into Mississippi (Not New Orleans) if the turn to the North continues without any wobbles.
Just hunker down good Cane.
its not the nws fault. they leave the forcasting at that point to the nhc who issues advisories. they are in a hurricane warning and its there for a reason.
1424. K8tina
pcolanative said "Repeatedly, people described it as the 'most terrifying night of their lives.' I am not talking about things I read, saw, or heard second hand. I am speaking of friends who stayed..."

I am one of those who stayed for Ivan. Me, my hubby, my 6-month old triplets and 2 neurotic cats! It was not something I would want to repeat any time soon. That is why I cannot fathom why these people are staying in NO and partying on Bourbon Street... or anyone who refuses to evacuate from the path of this storm. It is not going to be all fun and games! This storm is going to bring mass destruction and sadly, many lives will be lost. Why don't some ppl get it???

(Sorry for venting!!!)
1425. Canenut
moving about 355 degrees now, yes?
ur wrong josh. theres a reason they are in a hurricane warnning. did u not know they were in a hurricane warning the are expecting winds of 90+ sustained and higher gusts. its more likley to be 120-130 sustained with gusts to 150-160
Guys, that forecast page is a region page. If you look at the column to the right of it where it says PINPOINT FORECAST, you can click on that map and it gives a slightly more realistic forecast. For example, if I click just on the New Orleans waterfront, I get:

Tonight: Rain and thunderstorms likely, then occasional rain after 7pm. Low near 80. Windy, with a east wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to between 55 and 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday: Occasional rain. High around 80. Windy, with a north wind 105 to 110 mph decreasing to between 60 and 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
1428. Canenut
904mb/160kts
Hello, folks.

First post here. Name's Pete and I live in the UK, I didn't know about Katrina until early today and I've been following the news for the last two hours. It's 11:53 am here, no work tomorrow thanks to Bank Holiday, so I'll keep following this through tomorrow. The last big hurricane in the UK was Andrew, which killed 32 people and washed cruise liners onto the shore. I remember the power going out for that one, even though I lived up North two hundred miles from landfall!

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Louisianna. It's hard to believe the study toll predictions of 25,000+ - I guess they were following the worst case scenario of gridlocked traffic being hit by the hurricane within the bowl. How many people do you think will be staying in New Orleans?

All a bit surreal really. My mate went down there a few weeks before Ivan and he really enjoyed it there - but he's a bit worried now as to what's happening.

Stay safe, you chaps. Hope the doomsday scenarios are on the right side of fanciful, and that Orleans is spared the worst. (Though it's becoming increasingly hard to see how, guess it all depends on the structual integrity.)

Do you think there's many left in the bowl?
also the hurricane force winds extend outward from the center 105 miles on each side of the storm.


here is a link to the windfield

Link
new jeff masters update
The pressure is now up to 904 mb according to recon reports. What do you guys make of this??
1433. SaCaCh
It looks like the right side of the storm is begining to collapse. see the newest infared images.
1434. Valence
Right now it looks like two possible landfalls

Grand Isle, LA

Bay St Louis, MS

And it DOESNT REALLY MATTER. This is category 5! Does anyone remember the pictures of Homestead, FL after Andrew passed by?

Or you can check out this site on Camille.

And remember, its not just the landfall point. If you are 200 miles E or W from the center, you are getting at LEAST tropical storm force winds and lots of rain. Flooding will be EVERYWHERE.

And those of you inland, while not having the storm surge, and still getting hit by a hurricane! This will still be a hurricane all the way to the N border of AL or MS. Is your home prepared?
U guys see the turn to the N?? its moving due N now...Lefty do u think this might turn NE and miss NO???
okay leftyy... Like others have stated, we disagree. The NW side of the storm is not as strong as other parts of the Hurricane and Baton Rouge is about 50 miles to the NW of New Orleans. If the center comes in about 20 miles east of New Orleans, which I predict, then that puts the eye about 70 miles to the east of Baton Rouge. That will be Hurricane force sustained (80mph) but Nowhere near 120-130 sustained. The strongest winds of over 100mph will be about 20 miles near the center, in the eyewall.
To those on the blog located in Baton Rouge......base your decisions, thoughts, and actions on what you hear from the NHC.....and local meteorologists. No sense in getting into an argument with anyone on a blog. Most of us have no formal meteorological training, though many have an inflated ego. Personally, I have no training...just personal experience. I'm only hear out of an interest in tropical cyclones, and in the near term, to help in any way I can with those in the path of Katrina..
.
.Just as an insight from the NHC, and from going through Katrina in South Florida....... Realize that Baton Rouge is in the cone of uncertainty...albeit on the far left side. Talk to people in South Miami, who were also on the far left side of this cone, including ironically enough NHC headquarters. Yes, Katrina was the first storm to ever pass directly over NHC headquarters in Miami. Nobody knows exactly where the storm is going now. My advice is simply to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
1438. Valence
Josh-

If you're off by about 50 miles (which is not large error), that puts you 30 miles from the center, and about 20 miles from the eyewall? Are you ready for that?
Just to put my two cents in...BR will see winds 75-85 sustained with possible gusts to 100. but if storm wobbles to the east alittle this will be much less. Still destructive winds but not devistating.
Cosmic...I thought Andrew went over the NHC in 1992...

Anyway...Katrina is gonna wreck New Orleans...hope everyone got out in time...good luck, people...
wind chart....Link..for people in BR..
How long is the long range radar blackout? We seem to have it everday so I assume it is a blackout.
This is the buoy data from the point just south of Dauphin Island, AL... that is the mouth of Mobile Bay.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 28.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): ESE ( 123 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.44 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.5 F
long range loop....Link...
30+ ft waves 64nm S of Dauphin Island.
It looks like it just took a hard turn north! What does everyone think?
1447. Jedkins
Pascmississipi I hope if you are less than 75 inland that you are in a shealter or a very strong structure....
Anything I miss that isn't on this first page of blog? had to grill chicken etc....feel like I was gone hours.

1449. linny
North northwest now. Any thoughts?
Easy to see the water in Lake Pontchartrain coming up rather quickly, and easily surpassing normal tidal ranges:

Mid-Lake Pontchartrain gage height
Radar loop our of BR/NOLA definitely shows a N/NW (approx 330 degrees) for the last hour or so.

Radar Loop
1452. LALady
Power out already here in Denham Springs (east of Baton Rouge) HOT, HOT, with no A/C!!!
1453. LALady
At least I have battery backup on my laptop...and a generator to recharge.
1454. linny
All you there in LA, MS and Al. You have my prayers.
1455. WSI
Good luck to all of those in the path of this monster. You all and everyone down there are in my thoughts and prayers.
just got back from church, people are worried, you can tell who was from NO, you can see on their faces, some of these poeple I've known for a long time and thier lives are about to be turned upsidedown, SUX
1457. Solo
This is truly amazing! I've lived along the Gulf Coast (from Houston/Galveston to Baton Rouge to Panama City and now Tampa) for nearly 18 years, and this is simply the scariest thing I've ever seen. Even if NOLA dodges the direct bullet, there are going to be major after-effects for a huge swatch of the coast. Good to see that W is on the ball, too. Best wishes and best of luck to the folks in the track.
bands passing nothing serious yet.
Hey everyone first post been reading for hours. I live just west of Mobile in Irvington. Wondering if anyone thinks it will get bad here.