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Katrina batters Miami, and is back to hurricane status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:09 PM GMT on August 26, 2005

Katrina is a hurricane again, after spending just seven hours over land, and briefly (for a four hour stretch) weakening to a 70 mph tropical storm. The unexpected southwestward path taken by Katrina (but hinted at for a long time by the GFDL model) put Miami in the bullseye for Katrina's strongest winds and heaviest rains. The eye passed directly over the National Hurricane Center and the Miami radar site, and Doppler Radar estimates of rainfall amounts show over ten inches of rain in a narrow band extending over the Hurricane Center. Some modest wind and flooding damage was reported by the media, consistent with typical Category 1 hurricane conditions. Four deaths, three from falling trees have been reported so far. Overall, Miami is extremely lucky--had Katrina had an additional 12 - 24 hours over water, she may have some ashore as a Category 3 hurricane.

Katrina has those 12 - 24 hours now, and more. The Miami radar loop continues to a well-organized storm, with a plainly visible eye. Upper level outflow is improving and slowing expanding. Katrina is in an almost ideal environment for intensification--31 to 32C waters, light shear, and no dry air. Katrina will likely be a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday night, and possibly a Category 4.

Although Katrina is currently moving just south of due west, the computer track models unanimously agree that a trough moving across the central U.S. this weekend will "pick up" Katrina and force it on a northward path towards the Florida Panhandle. These model predictions are high-confidence predictions, as the upper air environment around the hurricane is well-characterized thanks to the NOAA jet dropsonde mission flown last night. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly another mission tonight. While New Orleans centainly needs to keep a wary eye on Katrina, it seems that the Florida Panhandle has its usual hurricane magnet in place, and the same piece of coast punished by Ivan and Dennis is destined for another strike by a major hurricane.

What's behind Katrina?
A large area of disturbed weather north of Hispanolia has diminished since yesterday. This disturbance lies in an area of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days. The tropical wave spinning 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands is still experiencing wind shear, but still has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend.

Katrina blogs
For observations of what's happening now in Southwest Florida, we have several bloggers writing today:

labsr4me (Naples, SW Florida)

Zeenster (Cape Coral, SW Florida)

evolution (Charlotte Harbor, SW Florida)

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dr Masters, this is not encouraging news for us in Panama City Beach.
Depends on when it makes it's turn north and whether it's a NW or NE track.... If I was anywhere from Louisiana to Florida I'd watch this thing closely....I beleive this will be a very strong storm by 2nd landfall....I'll be keeping all the people in it's path in my prayers....
Thanks for the update Jeff. Despite the "high confidence," the expected turns, the possible approach to my area near the magnet, and the probability of a major storm, makes all this quite scary. Prayers along with warning flags are definitely going up.
It is right below us here in Naples, any chance this thing could go north soon, or are we pretty safe. To close for comfort right now.
Well...here in Naples, FL, there has been a sigh of relief and some meterological disappointment . I made two wagers at my office with a friend, 1) Katrina would make landfall as a cat 1 (it did) and that Naples would get less than 2" of rain from the storm (so far I'm right on that one too). I may have lunch money for next week.

Katrina made a decidely southwest turn while coming ashore yesterday and with the exception of a little westerly wobble just NW of Homestead at about Midnight (EST), it stayed on this SW course all the way across the peninsula. We have had 0.00" rain in Naples since midnight, and here in North Naples, only .09" of rain yesterday in total..

Wind gusts here at the house have been as high a 22mph, and 28 mph at the Naples Airport.

It is amazing to think that a cat 1 hurricane has been with 65 nautical mile of Naples...If I didn't follow the internet and news, you would never know it existed. I can't say the same for the east coast near Miami or the Keys as they have been dumped on with copious amounts of rain. My thoughts and prayers are with them.

Here is my Weather Station website - http://www.naples-fl-weather.com

I'll keep you posted if anything changes.

John Merriwether
Naples, FL
labsr4me, are we out of the woods? Or do you think it could turn north?
Morning all (cheers bloggers with cup of expresso, FYI I drink between 1 - 1.5 quarts of expresso a day usually hot, black and sweet). Hopefully all my fellow bloggee's made it throught. And as much as I hate to say it StormTop may be right on the strenght of Katrina, still way off on location (for now). The 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands , some of the models form that into a major hurricane and move it out into the Alantic (aleast they where last night, I have yet to check the models this morning). I check back in later if things don't get to busy at work (been a slow week here at work, and before you ask I can't say where I work but I give a big hint, its a large company with its HQ in the town I live in)
orion, i think the ridge is too week to pull the storm noth so hard, N.O. should get a big scare, Do you agree?
cajunkid,

From the data I am looking at, I have to disagree. However Katrina is a little south of where most of the models thought she would be, their exists the chance that she may be able to slip under the front and stall in the gulf for a couple of days. We shall see, althought if I was a betting man. I place my bets on the panhandle (like I did in my offical forecast I made a couple of days back)
I think we all need to take a step back today and realize that the familys of four people are grieving tremendously this morning.

I hope for a speedy recovery for Miami and the rest of S. Florida. Many of us who have been there know the sinking feeling the morning after.

I can't even begin to comprehend what is about to happen next. I would rather not speculate at this time.
I think N.O. needs to definitely watch this thing...This will be a strong system...I don't agree with it taking such a hard NE turn...Like I've said before ..these systems don't like to be told where they are going..they always seem to do something a little unexpected....
Orion- has your forecast changed for the Big Bend or are we still in for a hit? (I'm guessing that the worst of the weather will be about 75-100 mi E of the center...)

On a not so very light note, my thoughts and prayers are with the families of those whose lives were lost.
your probly wright, just that spin of LA looks strong
THREE QUICK OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING: 1)THE TROF THE TPC IS COUNTING ON IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DIGGING SOUTH TO PICK UP KATRINA. THE TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS IS MOVING EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SE U.S. THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN CANADA, THE TROF EXTENDS FROM IS NOW MOVING ENE.
2)THIS IS STILL AUGUST, NOT LATE SEPTEMBER, IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET ANY TROF INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TO PICK UP THIS HURRICANE.
3)KATRINA IS STILL VERY FAR SOUTH IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO, AND COULD VERY EASILY NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS FIRST TROF PASSING BY. MORE LIKELY KATRINA WILL HAVE TO GAIN ADDITIONAL LATITUDE TO BE PICKED UP BY THE NEXT TROF.
STORMTOP WEATHER BULLTEN NWS

THE STROM IS NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 5 MPY BUT WILL DEFINITELY PICK UP SPEED AS IT ENTERS FURTHER INTO THE GULF...KATRINA HAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER AND STRENGTHEN..KATRINA WILL ALSO BECOME A UCH LARGER STORM IN DIAMETER...KATRINA HAS 2 GREAT THING GOING FRO HER SIZZLING TEMPS 88-94 DEGREES...NO SHEAR AT ALL AND NO DRY AIR NEAR HER CENTER...HERE IS THE SITUATION THERE IS A HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST RIGHT NOW AND KATRINA IS BEING PUSHES ALONG BY THE STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE GULF.IF KATRINA CONTIUES TO MOVE WEST ALL DAY TODAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY AND THE TROUGH THATS SUPPOSED TO COME DOWN SLOWS DOWN AND MAKES IT DOWN HERE LATER THEN THR NHC IS FORECASTING THE TRACK WILL KEEP BEING SHIFTED WESTWARD....THE BULLSEYE WILL BE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR PASS CHRISTIAN...IF THE HIGH OVER US STARTS TO MOVE AWAY SLOWLY THEN THE TROUGH WILL HAVE TO WAIT EVEN LONGER AND THAT WOULD MEAN A POSSIBLE LANDFALL WEST OF GRAND ISLE...NOW IF THE TURN TO THE NORTH WOULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING AHD THE TROUGH GOT DOWN HERE EARLY THEN THE BULLSEYE WOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE PENSECOLA AREA...RIGHT NOW AT THIS MOMENT THE TROUGH IS STATIONARY BACK IN THE ROCKIES AND KATRINA HAS ALREADY STARTED MOVING WESTWARD...THIS IS A BIG PART OF THE PUZZLE IF KATRINA WOULD PICK UP SPEED TO 12MPH AND THEN THE TROUGH MAY MISS PICKING HER UP COMPLETELY CAUSING A GREATER THREAT TO LA AND EVEN THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...I WOULS SUGGEST FOR PEOPLE FROM HOUSTON TO PENSECOLA TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THIS IS THE KEY DAY IN MY ESTIMATION WHERE KATRINA WILL END UP...MY THOUGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED I THINK KATRINA WILL STILL BE A CAT 5 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WITH 180MPH WINDS...THE WATER TEMPS ALONG THE LOUISIANA MISS AND ALABAMA COASTS ARE IN THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST..IF KATRINA WOULD HEAD IN THAT DIRECTION THE STRENGTHING WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL SHE MAKES LANDFALL...IF KATRINA WENT EAST TO PENSECOLS WATER TEMPS THERE ARE COOLER LIKE MID 80S AND WOULD NOT STRENGTHEN AS RAPIDLY COMING ON SHORE...I LOOK FOR THE NHC TO SHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD SOMETIME TODAY AND MORE TOMORROW IF THEY DONT SEE THAT TURN..LIKE I SAID THE TROUGH IS STATIONARY IN THE ROCKIES AND HAS A LONG WAY TO GO..KATRINA IS ALREAD APPROACHING THE 82 DEGREES LONG..IF SHE PICKS UP SPEED THIS MORNING WHICH IS LOOK LIKE WHATS HAPPENING NOW THEN KATRINA COULD POSSIBLY BE AT THE 85 DEGREE LONG BEFORE THE TROUGH EVEN STARTS TO MOVE AND THAT SPELLS TROUBLE..TO KEEP IT AWAY FROM LA AND MISS WE NEED THE TROUGH TO COME DOWN BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AND TURN THE STROM TO THE NORTH..IF THIS DOESNT HAPPEN FOR THE REASONS I EXPLAINED THEN WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A POWERFUL HURRICANE CAT 5 KATRINA...THIS IS REALLY FUNNY OUR FAITH DEPENDS ON A TROUGH THAT STILL STATIONARY..WEATHER IS FULL OF VARIABLES AND SCIENCES...MY NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT AROUND NOON.....THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN FROM STORMTOPS NWS....NEW ORLEANS ,LA 0800AM
I have been following the discussion here, especially StormJunkie's and Leftyy420's talk about the GFDL, and made a post on storm models and their effectiveness as tools on my Blog. Valence's ideas about the conservatism of official forcasts lead me to think he might want to read my previous entry.

My ideas about Katrina were posted before the latest updated information, and contain some rational arguements for STORMTOP's position, because we won't get them from him.
What is going on with the "tail" of Katrina, when is it going to whip around? There seems to be so much storm in the lower left (southwest?) quadrant. When is this or will it, whip around? I'm in Tampa and while I don't think we're going to get a hit or even a brushing, I'm wondering if this portion of the storm will ever come around and maybe we'll get that?
Thanks!
53rdWeatherRecon,

Your right.

Come on all ye bloggee's a moment's silence and a respectful nod to those that have passed from this plane on to beyond and those still in danger from the awesome force of nature.

May dictata of silenti etc , exsisto nunquam lost ut victus
there is a lot of dry air just north of her that she is about to suck in though
MandyFSU,

I am still sticking to my guns, but as of right now the quick glance at the data is pointing to landfall a bit east of where I predicted, Penasacola area looks like its in the crosshairs right now. I will check in more detail later. Work beckons
21. SEFL

Stormtop, I wish you would stop with the all caps and the fake NWS bulletin. That's one of the reasons no one takes you seriously.

I have to say you got the wsw turn of Katrina right but I disagree when you boast that you "got it right" You said 95 mph at landfall and you had the storm emerging in the middle keys. Big difference between middle keys and shark valley. You may have some good ideas but you overcook everything.
So what are you thinking about us, Orion? (Sorry to bug, I'm starting to get nervous now that this thing kinda zigged when it was 'posed to zag)
And I have to apolgize, because, despite the caps, those thoughs seem rational.

Although a trough is just a relative low pressure area, and its extent is not really shown on most maps, which focus on absolute pressure. Think of Katrina moving like a spinning top over terrain where pressure is elevation. But also remember that Katrina is changing her terrain.
Hey all I am new to this blog. I live in Mary Esther, Florida south of HWY 98. Katrina has the potential to be the third major Hurricane to effect us in less then one year. I received a few inches of flooding from the storm surge of Ivan (1300 feet inland from the sound). Amazingly Dennis moved through so quickly we had very minor damage and no flooding. Both of these storms were Cat 3 at landfall. I was actually within 15 miles of the eye of Dennis and over 55 from Ivan. What causes the differences in the damage from two CAT 3. Also, is Katrina more like a Dennis or Ivan? Your inputs would be great. I am planning to begin shuttering this evening.
For those of you along the SW coast of FL:

The best forecast for us (im here too) is that we are not going to get hurricane force winds (and therefore a direct hit) from Katrina.

The storm should stay well off ot the shoreline. However, the strongest area of storm activity has been in the SE quadrant (draw and X through the center, look at the bottom right pie piece). As Katrina moves N along the edge of the H pressure zone, we are going to get some rain gust wind. The further she pushes west, the lower the sustained winds and wind gusts should be.

JV
Sorry Orion... didn't see your post before I posted. :-)
STORMTOP, STOP WITH THE UNOFFICIAL OFFICIAL BS. YOU NEED TO TAKE THAT CRAP TO THE NATIONAL ENQUIRER. I HAVE BEEN ON HERE FOR TWO DAYS AND YOU ALREADY ARE ANNOYING ME WITH INACCURATE INFORMATION ONE OF THESE DAYS YOU WILL REALIZE THAT OPINION IS OPINION, NOT FACT. SHUT UP WITH THE BS NWS CRAP.
RECON,

We refers to his group of people in New Orleans

Anyway, i said yesterday: Wouldnt it be funny if the GFDL was right?

well, i think i can start laughing now :)
It does appear, unfortunately, that all the ingredients are in place for category 4 or 5 hurricane in the gulf. Whether you like it , or not, StormTop may be right this time.
Link

Video from Marco Island while you digest the above coments.

Please stop YELLING!
dennis was a fast mover with a very narrow eye. was not here long enough to cause the damage like ivan.
someone tell me why ms,al,p-cola has highest strike prob and everyone says its going east of them
Valence: do you know when the new models are run and if/when we'll get a better handle of landfall? The difference between a Destin landfall & a Panama City landfall can mean a lot over this way...
Ok Storm Top than you should change your sig to STORMTOP NOWS. (New Orleans Weather Service)

It's funny how you can tell if someones predictions have any legitimacy to them simply by finding out where they are living.

byased much.
53rdWeatherRecon - see my post "Thinking of those affected by Katrina" .. your thoughts earlier are now included re: the families
Didn't the hurricane hit with 95 MPH winds yesterday? Didn't those winds register somewhere yesterday at landfall? South of Miami? I believe it was Stormtop who predicted that. I could lose the CAPS, but I hope my friends in FL and MS take this seriously and don't assume it will be like Dennis. I think we are looking at a storm more like Ivan...hopefully not Camille. I pray not a Camille.
Stormtop may be right, but why scare the hell out of the entire Gulf when that is not warranted. The storm will do what it wants to do, and this place gives us a forum to learn and express thoughts. Also, get insight from folks who are near landfall. Maybe I am going overboard, but I think it is unfair to people in harms way.
LOOK 53rd i dont need the insults im trying to give you a logical scnario where everyone is involved..if you ask the nhc i bet they would tell you they were in a squeeze play here..they dont know what to do now with the trough in the rockies now stationary and katrina moving along west in the gulf and picking up steam...katrina right now if she increases in her speed that is not good for us in la miss...if she stays at 5 mph it will give the trough thats in the rockies time to get down here and turn katrina north..i hope this happens but ir and vapor loops show the trough clearly in the rockies has yet to start moving...the best thing is you will know by saturday afternoon where katrina will go...i still say katrina will be on shore somewhere on monday night...
I am not a religious person but I prayed long and hard during Dennis. My wife and I loaded the dog and headed to Savannah. It was pretty surreal watching CCN report from your neigborhood. My thoughts go out to those killed by the falling trees in SW FL. All of the official reports indicate low shear etc. But, based on the Wunderground shear projection, it appears there will be some shear for katrina to deal with after 24 hours. Am I reading this right. Yellow and a touch of green in the northern Gulf?
Mandy-

The already ran the BAMM at 8 am this morning.

As Dr. Jeff said in his blog, they ran a NOAA jet dropsonde mission last night. I imagine that we should new runs of most, if not all of the models, by noon today.

But Mandy, dont rely on the models for planning on what to do during the hurricane. These things can get really dicey as they near the coast line and the outer core starts to interact with the different atmospheric conditions on land.

The models, who are in consensu, are showing a landfall somewthere between Panama City and Gulf Shores, AL. I suggest you starting preparing your house, and figuring out where you are going to be staying on Sunday and beyond. Good Luck.

JV
This storm has a VERY good chance of reaching category 4 before it makes landfall. But I think much like Ivan and Dennis we will see a strong storm (low category 4/ high 3) and than a drastic weakening before landfall. I predict a category 2/3 (right on the borderline) at landfall near the same region that was hit by Ivan and Dennis. It sucks, but thats what is shaping out to occur.

Hopefully I am wrong and the storm falls apart when the front moves closer. Pray for shear. Its the only hope at this point with this storm. (water temps are hot, dry air is gone. . .)
After dealing with Charley and his erratic movements, I am not sure what to think anymore..From all that I have seen and heard..I think it is safe to say that anyone from LA to FL needs to pay attention to this...who knows the thing may take an erratic right turn and cut clear across FL( not that I want that to happend because I am in central FL) BUT...it seems to have a mind of its own (going further south than expected, etc...)
hookedontropics- i agree. there's a fine line between putting everyone on notice and inducing an all out panic. I appreciate Stormtop's efforts to make everyone aware of the seriousness of the situation, and even though we are expressing opinions, I'd like to think they're "educated" guesses and not opinions to insight a riot. Although I'ms ure StormTop is just doing what he/she (sorry) feels is necessary, we do need to be careful.

Personally, I'm skiddish b/c I'm afraid that Tally's 9 lives are about out and I'd hate to think that they ran out on Katrina and not some dinky TS like Bonnie last year. As the storm gets closer, I sure hope one of y'all will say "MANDY! Get the HECK outta there!" If I need to. By the same token, please feel free to say "MANDY! Shut the heck up, you guys aren't going to get ANYTHING outta this!" :-)
Katrina appears to have resumed wsw motion, and getting much more organized according to the latest high resolution satellite photos. Katrina is winding up into tightly organized bomb. The movement appears to be in response to the ene flow, visible on water vapor images, over katrina. How will this continued wsw movement affect the TPC predicted landfall point?
Muffin Anne from Destin here. Would someone please flip the magnet switch to OFF! Thank you.
Thanks, JV.
gnshpdude asked:

> What causes the differences in the damage from two CAT 3

Speed of passage is the big thing. Or, duration of passage, so a huge storm like Ivan will do more damage than the smaller Dennis. The longer an area is subjected to the wind, surge, and rain, the greater the damage.

Depending on the terrain, the amount of rainfall, which is almost independant of intensity, is a major factor in how much damage is done. TS Allison is a great example. And rainfall, again, is partly a function of duration. Since Allison was practically stationary for so long, she did a lot of damage. Most of the lives lost to Mitch were due to flooding, and bad roads.

If the rain hits before the winds, more trees will fall, and more buildings will collapse.

Also, some storms will spawn more locally intense winds than others, and tornados. The category only reflects the sustained maximum winds, not high end aberations which can do tremendous damage.
gnshpdude,

Murphy Laws of Combat
19. There is no such thing as an atheist in a foxhole.

http://www.military-quotes.com/murphy.htm (LOL)
I think we should all pay attention, heck I am in VA and I am watching to see if we have tornadoes from this as well. This storm will effect 1/3 or the US when all is said and done with it. Alot has to happen for this storm to be a Cat 4 at landfall. I think it great everyone has an opinion, but do not disguise it in an all points bulletin.
punkasshans, think you may have it correct with what you say... the water is very warm right now and that will only increase strength. However, I think you may see an Ivan situation here with a rapid weakening before landfull. Really thinking that shear will hopefully hold it down from becoming too large. As for the strength of this hurricane, I see nothing stopping it of becoming a cat4 while in the gulf but I just see it making landfall as a 3.
...Katrina getting better organized over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
as it moves slowly away from South Florida...
...Flooding still a threat for extreme southern Florida...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys and Florida Bay from Dry Tortugas northward... along the East
Coast of Florida from Florida City northward to Deerfield Beach...
and along the Gulf Coast of Florida from south of Florida City
westward and northward to Longboat Key. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the Florida
West Coast from north of Longboat Key to Anclote Key. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area... generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 9 am EDT...1300z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 25.2 north... longitude 82.0 west or about 45
miles north-northwest of Key West Florida and about 65 miles
south-southwest of Naples Florida.

Katrina is moving erratically toward the west near 6 mph and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours... with a
slight increase in forward speed.

Information from NOAA Doppler radars indicate maximum sustained
winds are near 75 mph... with higher gusts. Katrina is a category
one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours. An Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Katrina later
this morning.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the
center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 85 miles. During the past hour or so...a wind gust to 50 mph
was reported at Marathon and a gust to 46 mph was reported at
the Key West Naval Air Station.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the West Coast of Florida in areas of onshore
flow south of Venice... and in Florida Bay. Storm surge should
continue to decrease this morning along the East Coast of Florida.

Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches
over extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Isolated storm
total amounts of 15 to 20 inches are possible.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over southern Florida and the
Florida Keys.

Repeating the 9 am EDT position...25.2 N... 82.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

It looks like the eye is clearing out, still moving west. It will be interesting to see the 11AM forecast.
Storm Top. I will be the first to say that I didn't think it was going to hit the keys. You said it would. It is currently hammering the Keys. Right on man. You are a relativly smart kid. I appreciate all of your insights. They are good. I actually include some of your information in my calculations. I just want to make sure you don't include your own wishes into your forecast. When you say "We" need this to happen you are disregarding all of the other people that are not where you are. All I'm saying is to stay objective.
StormTop/Lefty...she wasnt bad at all. I could compare her to Jeanne, few bands of gusty wind and rain, but the rain was around 3-4 inches here in Palm Beach.

Now that Lefty is saying a possible cat4, StormTop you may be right. If she plays her game right a cat 5 may be around the corner. She was smart last night to turn south....
Outstanding day in Clearwater/ Largo area. Wind gusts to 26mph, averaging about 13, 65 % humidity. Nice change hope it stays that way.
Hey guys -

My attention is needed elsewhere for the time being. I'll be back on here in a few hours, especially to check out the lastest model runs.

I've also starting posting on my own blog, for the handfull of you that are interested. :- )

Until later... (assuming I keep power!)

JV
58. SEFL
For whoever it was who asked about wind speed at landfall. From the OFFICIAL NWS bulletin last night.

"...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH
AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS"

I also think Stormtop provides useful information. IMO if you would just present it conversationally and explain your scenarios and make room for possible exceptions, we would all find it more useful. But to barge in here with the NWS bs and then announce you will be back for your next update in 3 hours is just a bit arrogant.
/offtopic

GetReal = STORMTOP = STORMFLOP!


/ontopic

I am in love with Katrina... :P
whirlwind

if a cat 4 storm hits the panhandle of fl - there will be damage above the cat 4 level - my reasoning is - what is partialy destroyed and repairs not completed from last years storms will be totally destroyed - other buildings and must include standing trees my be weaked to a point where they will be destroyed also.
Im on noones side but what if:

95% of people here say's StormTop's prediction wont happen. They call him names and harass him. Wouldnt it be something if he IS CORRECT. What should he do?? Tell everyone off?? I know I would....
Well put SEFL
get real i dont like her on that wsw course the eastrelies will really pick her speed up about 10-12mph...katrina is already passed the 82 degree long and the dumb trough is still stationary in the rockies..i dont like this at all...
All,

After taking a more detail look at the data. Looks like a cat3/4 hit on the panhandle, their is really nothing to stop Katrina from intenseifiying. And the front will push her quickly. I say her chances for slipping under the front are less than 10%. The only good news is this front will create strong sheer for anything out in the ocean right now (althought a couple of the models create a strong hurricane out of the tropical wave about 1000 miles out from the leeward islands and push it up in the middle of the Altanic at the end of the period, ie 144hours out)
Imagine that, the NWS in the last intermediate advisory is now calling for Katrina to sometime today while continuing west for next 24 hours. I believe they are blowing their own models out of the perverbial water with that short term forecast, which called for Katrina to crawl along awaiting that TROF to arrive by FEDEX.
Bottom line as usual anyone on the gulf coast needs to watch this system careful. People on the panhandle need to start get things ready to hunker down or bail.
correction: at slightly faster forward motion
anyone notice (may be wishfull thinking) that the later models, (Spaghetti, flhurricane.com) are pushing west? Those are BAMD, BAMM and LBAR?
get real the nhc is in a real dilema right now caught between a rock and a hard place..i expect by the 5 pm advisory they will begin shifting the track westward idf the trough is still stationary...wher =e are you gius getting a cold from....are you living in canada?
self if you take at my latest post you will see i give you 3 explanations of what this thing can do..what more do you want from me?
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

Everything shifting west.....
im not surprised wxgssr....this is what the trend will be all day if that trough does not make it down here..
The continued west or wsw motion, at a slightly quicker forward speed will have to move the TPC guidance further west; possibly much further west. However with the NHC's love of continuity, StormTop, don't be disappointed if they don't move it as far west as you are calling for.
stormtop

I too had Katrina going through the straits and then heading toward houston in 79"s poll - that possiblity is is not that far off now - had her going in as a cat4
this is going to be funny but top may be close on the strength of this thing cat 4 will be a real possibility.. this track is the only this left unaswered but I would keep an eye out from Houston to Tally.. In the middle would be my guess...
get real i dont expect them to move the track westward until 5pm this evening.....i think it could be as far as 150 miles if the trough is still stationary..
stop...I think the 11 am NHC will shift west...based on movement, model shift, etc, etc...and also they will go for higher intensity....105 max is my guess as to what the NHC FORECAST will call for at 1100.

Ithink the storm will get stronger than that...cat 4 overall max intensity, weakening trend to 3 at landfall....somewhere between P'cola and Ocean Srings MS. I do not rule our even further west though...NHC really needs to consider what they want to do so that NOLA can upshift their attention.

Any thoughts and speculations for those of us in Western North Carolina? I cannot begin to describe the destruction Frances and Ivan brought us. Even though both were tropical storms when they hit, due to our elevation we did receive winds over 80mph. Both storms also brought a few areas near 20 inches of rain.
This storm poses a great problem. If the NHC cannot have some certainty (not their fault) by tomorrow morning, if this thing headed torward NOLA, holy cow............I lived in Baton Rouge, I remember the Ivan evac....
Whirlwind,

If you cry wolf everyday, eventually you have to get it right. Just because Stormtop gets one right, doesn't mean I (or others) are going to forget the other 12+ times he's been oh so wrong (this year). People would take him more seriously if he would stop typing and spelling like a 10 year old (use a spellchecker for God's sake) and attempting to make his opinions seem official by copying NHC's public advisory format.
wabit you are right it is possible if a certain scenario occurs for houston to get gale force winds...we will have to see...great prediction on the keys wabit
Does a website exist that tracks the predictions and actual landfalls of the storms for, say, the past few years? Seems to me the GFDL is right on up to the point of landfall, and then these storms seems to "dog leg" or wobble and seem to wobble to the east of the predicted landfall. I'm interested in the history of these predictors. Live on the MS coast--went through Camille.
The NHC has never admitted to being wrong about anything. That is why they hide behind the continuity theme. They put out so many advisories during the coarse of a storm, they hope the general public does not remember the mistakes in forecast.
whirlwind i have a problem with my left hand right now thats why i was typing in caps...
On another blog someone stated that Katrina took a little jog east..."09am - 25.2N 82.0W 10am - 25.3N 81.9W"...Do we think this is just a bobble?
I gotta admit, the dude is funny.
So top are you going to tell all these Stormtop haters off If your prediction holds mostly true?
for any one interested - here is a US surface analysis map

you can go to the tool bar and get an animation, also jet

stream map

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=SurfaceMaps&product=SurfaceAnalysis&prodnav=none

BEFORE ANYONE SAYS ANYTHING I BEEN THROUGH 3 MAJOER HURRICANES CAMILLE BETSY AND ANDREW...I KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT AND I NEED SOMEONE TO CHECK ON THE TROUGH TO SEE WHATS GOING ON HAS IT BEGUN TO MOVE YET..WE KNOW KATRINA IS MOVING THE MORE WEST SHE MOVES THE GREATER THE THREAT FOR THE LA AND MS COASTS...
I personally like STORMTOP's personal insight. But i do think maybe he should start his own blog for his little game of guess.
Auto,

Thanks! I assumed there was logical reason. The weather Channel seems to sell all storms of the same catagory equally. It is hard to find good current information, except on the internet. My wife indicated to me the local news still shows the storm hitting between Panama City and Tallahassee. yet all of the Univ of Colo models have shifted west with us in the center!
hi everyone long time reader im in Gulfport, Ms what are the chances of Katrina turning north later than forcasted b/c of the wsw movement and affecting us on the Miss. gulf coast??
btw, katrina looks to be turning northward, although its prolly a wobble.
All we need now is joshfsu on line to make this exchange more interesting.
THAT TRACK WILL NOT CHANGE FROM THE NHC...THE TRACK CHANGES EVERY 6 HOURS AND I DONT EXPECT THE TRACK TO CHANGE MUCH AT 11PM EITHER...I EXPECT THE CHANGE TO THE WEST TRACK TO COME IN THE 5PM ASVISORY
HEY YOUR CAPS LOCK KEY IS STUCK, GET A HAMMER AND FIX IT!
stormtop

if you want to know what the trough is doing look at my last post
wow, if you look on loca radar you can see Katrina wrapping bands around her small eye.....she will explode soon but how much?
get real you know the dam trough is still stationary...it is not moving its got to start getting in gear are we are in deep trouble...
It almost as if he is the Enquirer and if he gets it right one time StormTop has the opportunity to tell people off. Ridiculous.. All we are saying is state your opinion, not as fact in an all points bulletin
*sigh*
thanks wabit good deal
Well, the update is out - and you're right - no change in track, but a definite change in intensity forecast...
That possible northward wobble was the eye wall wrapping around and getting better orgainized.
can the panhandle set a new record?? or should I go further west..oh sh1t...wipe out
whirlwind another key is the still southward component in katrina which is not good...
dang..I keep getting slammed by these wondering bands...man I hope I dont loose power..LOL
Accuweather's Take
Katrina continues to move farther into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, and as it does the storm will strengthen and pick up some forward speed. It will continue to move west today but a turn towards the north will occur tonight. The storm's movement is being caused by the southeast-building of an upper level high pressure area centered over the south central Gulf Coast. This high pressure ridge will split with one part sliding west and the other becoming a stronger extension of the Atlantic high. This will create a weakness in the upper level wind flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Sunday, which will cause Katrina to move northwest, then more northerly. By late Sunday, Katrina should be around 150 miles west of Tampa and moving north or north-northeast. The storm will likely have strengthened into a category 3 hurricane by that time, as Katrina moves through a part of the Gulf where water temperatures will be very warm through a pretty good depth. There is also minimal shear in this area, so Katrina will likely intensify into a Category 2 hurricane Saturday and could become a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday morning before making a second landfall along the Florida panhandle late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Katrina could bring heavy rainfall from the Appalachians eastward early next week as it tracks northeast.
you think its still a southward movement?...that is the eye trying to refrom into a smaller one..right?
Please lay off stormtop everyone, he's definitely why I come here. It's good to here ALL the possibilities
Pressure now at 981...
my problem is when people try to pass probabilities off as fact
delso im not doing anythin except predicted katrinas sw movement over the keys..i sure didnt have her going up the east coast like some people..i also have her picking up speed today..so what did i say that offended you...
How low can the pressure go? i mean, what is typical?
No mention of a trof in that report from accuweather.
icebear..cat5 low as high 800's
I suspect we could easily see a pressure of 930 to 940 within 48 hours.
Do you think the eye wobble is the system trying to level out and become more symmetrical? Kinda like overloading a washing machine?
It looks like Atlanta is going to take a big hit again from the remnants.
A good view of the storm is on keys radar
123. NJJIM
Do any of the computer models or OPINIONS take Katrina
back out in the Atlantic, and if so, what day?
Stormtop what do you think?
Interesting point in NHC 11:00am advisory, Katrina continues to move south of due west. As I have opined earlier, Katrina is moving further south into the se gulf and would probably miss the teleconnection and remain behind.
ice bear once again where are you seeing facts for a certain area that i put out...i put out 3 scenarios for people would understand what can happen if katrina does this or any other thing she decides to do...the nhc computers have never had a handle on this storm since it became a hurricane i have a good handle on it so for...just look at my posts what did i say is wrong ..the cat 5 is my opinion...before i posted a cat 5 the nhc were posting a cat 3 for katrinas 2nd land fall...i am different on that im forecasting katrina especially if she stays on the west track long enough to have winds of 180mph...read my posts before you condemn me...
oh yea..that was Gilbert @ 870 mb
to ST I don't have an opinion about anything... I'm just learning, but what I was saying to the group is to give you break...but you can relax a little don't be so defensive...It's all just opinions.
-
Love the blog, and appreciate all the insights that's alland hate it when it get mucked up more science and learning and less chest thumping thats all
The eye hasn"t wobbled look at some radar sites Miami, and the keys
hook all you have to do is look wabit posted the link ..gee see for yourself...
Actually, Gilbert was 888 - the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, I believe...
Sounds like they're expecting her to turn N pretty soon... not good for us in the big bend...
I DONT LIKE THIS SOUTWARD COMPONENT

LATEST 25.1N 82.2 W
80 MPH
WEST AT 7MPH

STARTING TO PICK UP SPEED I DONT LIKE THIS IM GETTING A LITTLE NERVOUS...
133. wpb05
i am not sold on this trough picking her up and pulling her north yet......i think landfall will be anywhere between pensacola and points west........
different pages post diff pressures...oh well..still the lowest


it shold still be heading west..should not turn north for at least 24 hrs

look the nhc new track is coming out at 11pm dont expect any changes in it yet.....
StormTop, I do agree with you I made that comment about 3 days ago that I thought it would be some where in the MS area. Just not sure what part of it (Gulf Port)I think... Fredrick hit in 79 and was as bad as here in Mobile as Pcola was after Ivan, It has been a long time since MS has had a major storm to hit them and it is there turn... I also want to thank you for what you are trying to do for all on the Gulf Coast...
Mandy..I am getting a little nervous too...I am south east of you (between Orlando and Daytona) BUT as stated in a previous post, it seems as if no one can really get a handle on where this is going to go..Track keeps shifting..And I know I have stated this before BUT after Charley's erratic behavior last year...who the heck knows!
CORRECTION 11AM
139. wpb05
recon just reported pressure of 971 mb


000
URNT12 KNHC 261451
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/14:34:20Z
B. 25 deg 03 min N
082 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2875 m
D. 45 kt
E. 318 deg 031 nm
F. 014 deg 081 kt
G. 306 deg 013 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 17 C/ 2871 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN N
M. C9
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NW QUAD 14:30:50 Z


11am Track and 5 day are out, puts it as a cat3 hitting around where Dennis did maybe a little to the west of that location

Here's a experimental I have had for about 6 months just click on the site you would like

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/index.shtml
thank you TACO I APPRECIATE THE KIND WORDS AND GOOD LUCK TO YOU JUST KEEP YOUR EYES ON KATRINA ..AS I SAID THE CRUNCH TIME WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING...
Also latest sat and radar are starting to show the north part of Katrina starting to get its act together (ie no more dry air infusion)
971 - whoa!
ARFE YOU SURE WPB ABOUT THE PRESSURE..IT DROPPED FROM 987 TO 971 THATS REALLY WINDING UP OUT THERE...
good morning
SherryB- I guess we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed. Charley definitely lowered my faith in the models- even the models yesterday didn't predict her going to the south like she did- what if they're wrong now. Of course, they could be WAY off and she could veer into mexico, but still... I'm nervous. If landfall is anywhere from 100 miles east or closer, I'm going to be in for a rough weekend...
I just wish katrina would let go of that south component..it makes me real nervous..
Hello Lefty...I can't wait to hear your thoughts (and I am not being sarcastic)...
hey lefty! What words of wisdom you got for us today? :-)
Yeah, 971 would indicate a strong Cat 2. Might take a bit of time for the winds to catch up...
152. wpb05
but the GFDL DID predict that SW movement!!!!
come on lefty get to work, u had enough sleep.
lol man yesterday was something. must first say the webcast is still up and very informative for whats has been done in miami and what not. good to just listen too here is the link


Link
rain would you double check on the pressure and make sure..
NHC Discussion is available - they mention the dramatic pressure fall - check it out..
raindancer -

You are correct. And bonus points for beating me to the correction.

As for Katrina's track: the eyewall is definately reforming and reshaping, (check out the Key West radar - bet they didn't expect to be that close!), which is causing some wobbles in motion. We'll have to watch her for a few hours time to if there is an actualy shift in track.

And STORM - the WSW track could just mean that Kat comes into the panhande at a NNE or even NE angle. I also expect the NHC to adjust the forecast track to the west somewhat, putting NO, LA out the westrn edge of the projection. But this thing is still going to end up in the panhandle, or AL. Even the GFDL model, which had correctly projected the S motion through FL at least 2 days ago, has Katrina ending up in Pensacola.
thanks rain i agree..
Hey everyone go take a look at the latest water vapor loops. That large black clear spot over the Florida panhandle and Georgia is a dry slot, indicative of high pressure. Look at the flow! No Hurricane can turn north into that northly flow. Katrina, following that flow will continue west or wsw for the next 12 to 24 hours, and then at a slightly faster motion, turn wnw and then nw towards the big easy or MS. The only saving grace may be that some of this dry air gets entrained into the hurricane's core.
That pressure is correct according to TWC
take a look at these models....further west...

Link
RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATES KATRINA'S
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MUCH LOWER...NOW AT 971 MB.
NHC is going to issue a special update shortly on the rapid strengthening...
whhoops heres the link

Link
THE TIMING OF THE
EROSION OF THE RIDGE AND AN INDUCED NORTHWARD MOTION OF KATRINA IS
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
LARGE SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A
LARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA...WHEREAS THE MAJORITY OF THE
NHC MODELS TAKE KATRINA INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...A RECENT
DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW UP TO 80 KT. SO...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
INTENSITIES.

FORECASTER STEWART

They are starting to make the case for westward shift.
That rapid intensification predicted by a lot of people is really starting to show up...I hope (and I'm sure) the NHC will take this into consideration in future forecasts. In other words, I hope they don't maintain continuity in their forecasts just for continuity's sake.
i do believe the nhc is really beig conservitive with the intensity of this storm and has only at the 11 am update showed that a major hurricane will be affecting the gulf states. i must say while the track is still uncertain all the models have been shifting slightly westward. i doubt neworleans will see a direct impact but there is still about a 15 percent chance specillay since its 3 days out. my feeling is those poor people who got crushed by ivan and dennis will see another major huricane. she will be a storm to remeebr. mark my words. i am not going to say how strong she could get but a safe bet she will be a major hurricane of some sort
168. wpb05
yes 971 was reported by recon
valence at this point im hoping you are right..i just dont like the movement she is picking up in speed gradually from 4mph now to 7 mph..by 5pm i wouldnt be surprised to see her at 12mph the easterlies are quite strong down there pushing her...
yes i see a westward shift but don't think it will be all the way tonew orleans but we have to watch that cause a cat 4 or stronger and all of a sudden stormtop is the man lol will just devestate that area period
i agree lefty.

lefty look at the experimental radar site - just click on the site you want


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/index.shtml
i see her close tocat 3 stregnth by the end of today
174. wpb05
yes...she measn business........she is alot stronger when she re-emerged this morning than they ever expected
Stormtop...would her being slow help or if she picked up speed to what u say to 12mph
Good morning Lefty. Im glad you finally went to sleep last night. I stayed up until almost 6 watching your damn webcast!
the faster she goes the harder she will be to turn so her speed and trength will determine where she goes as well. major hurricanes tend to stay on a corse they are on with only a slight jog so most of the central and west gulf is under the gun. the nhc has to try to figure all this out in the next 12 hrs cause evacs will be needed real soon
lefty i dont want to see a shift as close as mobile..this will be a huge storm ..i mean in diameter..a much bigger storm then dennis in size and we got close to hurricane force winds when dennis went on shore east of us...i just want the s component right now to go away...
179. wpb05
food for thought........she is stronger than they had anticipated at this point.......I am wondering if the stronger and stronger she gets, the less likely she is to be influenced by lighter steering currents....when these storms deepend, they ten to go where THEY want to g
lol i am watching it still now
The winds have in Katrina have not got up to the quicly falling pressure. strong cat 2 now for sure.
the damage she caused over south florida is just amazing
yes whirlwind i would say if she picked up to 12mph and the trough was still stationary then we are in big trouble...
yeah thats my feeling. she is bombing out right now. major pressure drops in only a few hours very impressive.


i was trying to explain the strength vs steering last night to some wishcasters if you will and explain that the stronger she appers to be the less east her track would be. what would spare mobile would for her to start to turn in the next 12 hrs or she might be headed right for that area
Lefty...Was it DIVX that you said to download to watch the Web Cast? Is this "play bundle free download" what you are talking about? Thanks!!

http://www.divx.com/divx/play/download/
Lefty-

People should stop referring to the area when Katrina hit as S Florida. No one lives in the Everglades, and I can assure that the W coast of the state has gotten little damage so far. (And if she keep moving W, we're not going to get much). This was entirely and an event for SE FL, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Homestead, etc. And unfortunately, they got a lot more than they bargained for. Its a good thing she didn't have another day or two out at sea.

JV
yes lefty i have her at 115 by the end of the day....explosive development saturday...
no it should be a free program. i will try to find it for you give me a couple seconds
Hey Lefty glad to see you. You are needed.
Could this be the huricanne that NOLA's 40 years of luck (since Betsey 1965) finally runs out???
Sorry guys...

Gotta jump out of here for a little while again. I'll be back though. And im sure it'll take me another half an hour just to catch up on posts that i missed!

Happy forecasting!

JV
the trough is still stationary.....katrina is picking up forward speed...its just not looking good ..the nhc will shift the track west about 150 miles in the 5 pm advisory ..i dont see no change in the new track coming out at 11am unless they have some new info which i doubt...
oh, and BTW, check out the (only) two posts on my blog. Im curious to see if some of you disagree with the most recent post. Adios for now.

JV
194. SEFL
Stormtop, what I want from you is exactly what you are doing now. Having a lower case conversation and not pontificating. Thank you.
i sure hope not get real...this will be and all timer for the record books and definitely will be retired..
sorry its directx and here is the link. also make sure u have the latest windows media player. if after all that it doesn't work let me know cause we need to probly fix couple things here is the link

Link
just so u know the winds are now atleast 100mph reported sustained winds form the recon
she is now a cat2 hurricane. wow
Storm== wouldnt it benefit her more if she was slow moving? more time over warm waters than if she picked up speed? i dont get it...
to STORMTOP:

If you a) used all lower case instead of all caps; b) were not so defensive, and c) were not so adamant about your predictions--if they happen, people will see; you would be one of the most respected posters here.

Try to realize that no one can know what Katrina, or any hurricane, will do in advance, because it isn't deterministic. Everyone has guesses. A truly accurate portrayal of Katrina would be a list of behaviours with probabilities for each. Your scenario is not as outlandish as your manner makes it appear to some people. Other people's scenarios would be on that list, too, though.

I would have posted this in your blog if you had any recent entries, rather than cluttering up this blog with it. When I have a longish response, even if it relates directly to this discussion, I post it in my blog and just make mention of it here.
she is strengthing rapidly she will have no problems becoming our fist cat 5 of the year...
well she will eventually slow down but the faster she goes the harder she will be to turn the further west she will go and she will cross more water in the long run thats it in a nutshell
heres an interesting link




Link

its interactive...
as time goes storm, i am seeing more and more like a cat 5 is possible. this is just crazy
Can someone please send me a site where I can watch her "grow?" Key West or Naples radar maybe?

The NHC has most certainly got their work cut out for them... especially if she gets bigger... more evacs- less time to get em done. I just wish I KNEW, ya know?
good link man thanks
thanks lefty..got it


HEY..whatever happened to YOUR wave ;)
it keeps going north then south and wobbling all over...
any insight on that?
Special Advisory Posted... I'll just add a snippet...

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.
whirlwind in this case i dont think it matters as far as strengthing is concerned..but it will sure be a race to beat the trough that has to move down from the rockies and is still stationary waiting for the high over us to move west...it might just be this high over the northern gulf coast is a lot stronger then the hurricane center is saying...we will see,
here this is the link to the nooa websitye and from there you can go to radar or the hurricane website and xcheck sat images

Link
yes lefty the gulf is just so hot i wouldnt be surprised to see her go past what i have her at 180mph...
well the center has been heading due west but the convection has been blowing up on the southside getting sheared and than pooping up again on the north side. i am still watching her and she will be a named storm but if she doesnot make a sig turn out to see anytime in the next 24-36 she will have a good chance to impact land. i feel that is unlikely and i am expecting to see a sig turn here soon
If I remember well the earlier GFDL model run that was taking her as south as she now was also calling for an explosive increase in strength. This was actually one of the reasons that some of the people here were ignoring that GFDL but it seems to have been the most accurate prediction over the last 12-18 hours.
I posted this on Dr. Jeff's blog early this morning. I am posting it again here. STORMTOP's info is important no matter what case he uses! If there is even a remote possibility of Katrina striking around the N.O./Pass Christian area, we NEED to know it. There will not be enought time to prepare and leave unless we start now. That is not panic. That is common sense!
**********************************************************
A word about STORMTOP'S posts.....

I think it is important to have everyone's point of view about this potentially dangerous storm. Those of you with the education and experience can evaluate all the fine points in the data and have a legitimate debate. Those of us depending on accurate info need to hear all the opinions - including STORMTOP'S.

I live in the Pass Christian area. I remember Camille. As the adjuster said - Camille left slabs, and steps where a home once stood. Relatives of a friend of mine were found dead in a their neighbor's driveway because they did not heed the warnings and leave. If any one of you is even thinking another Camille, I, for one, want to know! There is not much time. I am beginning my serious preparations TODAY.

Over the years, I have observed that storms do not follow the NHC center line track. They go to either side of it.

Thinking of our friends in Florida this morning.......


well i dunno bout that but anything with this storm is possible stormt. i def feel this will be another andrew, a storm other storms are measured against it. the funny thing is all the news agencies are still calling for a cat 3 onlandfall cause thats all noaa has said so far. by the end of today i expect them to state a major cat 4 or weak cat 5 at landfall. thats my expectations right now
im interested in her forward speed ...i dont want to see her go to 12mph .....the easterlies are quite strong lefty pushing her quite fast...i dont want that...thats bad for my first original land fall pass christian ms...
Hey STORMTOP,
Where are you located? I am in Pascagoula.
at this point u guys lets just watch the track. she will gosomewhere in the gulf area and she will be totally detructive. this will be a camile, she will be a andrew, and i have a sick feeling this morning. very sick feeling
Lefty im here in Gulfport, Ms how far west do you think the storm will make landfall
i agree lefty and i think they have to shift the track westward by the 5pm advisory...hurr watches will go up sometime saturday .........
The last major hurricane we had here was Elena in 1985 cat 3 with 125 mph winds
pasc in new orleans
well one thing...if she intensifies too rapidly the odds are that she won't sustain a cat 4 or 5...and at landfall will probably be a strong cat 3...through history most landfalling cat 5's were intensifying just before or at time of landfall....there's a little hope in that as far as stength at landfall....
dunno man i dunno. i have never tracked a storm like this. my best guess is to follow the gfdl and figure around the fl,ms,al border or any point west
don't let that fool yopu man. the water temps near the coast are 95 degress and isabelle was a cat 5 monster for 5 days so don't assume that she will weaken like ivan and dennis did at the coast. i just don't see that happening
stormtop do YOU still think Pass Christian is the highest probablity
wow the gfdl has her as a strong ts weak cat even as she passes into va where i am. i wouldjust be shocked to experience that
GIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE
SHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE
VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

well well well.....
hte most danger will be that she will be so damaging well inland of the coast that will cause alot of problems
pirate a point i would like to make the temps along the la miss and alabama gulf coast are running 95 degrees now...the temps are quite a bit cooler over the panhandle at 85 degrees..if katrina comes inland on the northern gulf coast she will strengthen all the wat till she is inland...this is just my opinion from foreccasting gulf storms..however that scenario you are talking about could happen in fla...with temps being a lot cooler
yeah and i could see an explosion of inensity right at the coast like she diid off offlorida cuase the water temps are impressive right near the coast
Hi guys and gals,

There's a new post out by Dr. Masters.
This thing is going to blow up big time. Probably to CAT 4, and maybe possibly CAT 5. But the difference between whether it hits as a CAT 4, or even CAT 5 or as a CAT 2 or 3 depends on how far west it goes before it turns. If it gets into the central Gulf I would not be suprised at all to see a CAT 5. Not only is the water near 90 degrees, but the heat content is super high there. Meaning the water is really warm, and it stays really warm very far below the surface. If it turns pretty sharp like forecasted and heads toward the FL panhandle it will probably get to CAT 4, then weaken to a borderline CAT 2/3 at landfall since the heat content is super low.
stormt from what isee the are warmer west of the onhandle but still in the lowers 90's 901 92 off the coast of the panhandle. so i think its crazy no matter where she goes
lefty..you may be right...isabelle was over the deep atlantic when she was a 5 and ended up being a mild 2, strong 1 when she finally came ashore...her eye was 15 miles from where I work..in NC. The gulf is hot but shallower water near the coast...too many variables...anything is possible with these storms...just looking at odds hoping to find a bright spot...hang on down there guys and gals....
left, remember I said to look at those vapor loops over the gulf the past two days, man I got a bad feeling about this one
yeah but the reason she weakend near the va,nc coast was due to shear. i dopn't see a drop in intensity like we saw over the last couple years of gulf storms. no shear sizzling water temps. if u live in this area please leave go somewhere goto a sheltr just get out of the way
this is scary. very scary.
Lefty...Thanks for the link. I have been trying since last night to make it work to no avail. I have the latest everything and a 1.5mb DSL connection. The problem I have is I Click on the WebCast and a window pops up. There is an ad on the left side and a screen on the right. The screen on the right just has an annimated NBC logo and the word "Buffering" the whole time. Is it because my DSL is too slow? Any ideas? Thanks Man!!
Sustaining category 5 status at landfall definite possibility if Katrina takes a more westerly coarse towards LA or MS due to water temps from 90 to 94 degrees. Plenty of energy there for the taking. Less likely to sustain cat 5 status going into AL/FL due to water temps slightly lower, 84 to 88 degrees and shallower continental shelf causes upwelling.
storm top Ihope you aren't right, N.O. needs to make a call the evening, we are about out of time to have a smooth evac.
another thing lefty is katrina is going to grow in size...like now hurricane force winds extend only 25 miles from the center and gales extend out 85 miles from the center...expect that to increase by tomorrow to hurricane force winds 75 to 100 miles from the center and gale force winds 150 to 200 miles from the center..this will be a very destructive storm where ever she goes and it kind of reminds me a good bit on betsy in 1965...
how many of you think Katrina could become a cat. 5
Hey cajun I've been jumping all over the water vapor loops the past two days.
okman lets try this. if u use explore go to tools and click internet options. make sure u have java enabled, u are accpetiong cookis and in the advanced section make sure u have play vidoes in webpages clicked. also click the play sound in webpages as well. than restart ur computer. it will prompt u to do this mostlikely, than when u restart close any programs in your tool bar by the clock that u do not need running. usuely a right click will give a list of options selct exit. after that try it again. let me know could be coupleof other things but do all this and let me know
whirlwind asked:

> Storm== wouldnt it benefit her more if she was slow moving? more time over warm waters than if she picked up speed? i dont get it...

STORMTOP is worried about a New Orleans hit, which is more likely if Katrina gets far enough west to be less influenced by the developing weakness (trough) in the high pressure air to her north. If the high pressure weakens while Katrina is still far enough east, Katrina will be drawn north, and pushed east. If it weakens after Katrina passes it will have less effect on her. This means a more westerly landfall.

A stronger storm, or a faster moving storm, will be harder to turn, as well. So faster motion now might actually delay eventual landfall and give more time for strengthening than slower motion.
i believe she could be a cat 5 and yes i see her growing in size like issabelle did. she was huge
yes lefty i agree scary i wonder how many people are laughing at me now...i know the gulf i been forecasting these things for 30 years..the gulf is what you call a silent killer when it comes to hurricanes..
Thanks Lefty...going to give it a try!! Be Back!!
Yeah, the current intensification is nothing short of awsome. She is just exploding. WOW. I love all these visual tools I have gathered from here.
Stormtop im in Gulfport, MS do you still see Pass Christian as the highest probability
that would put me on the east side :O(
all righ tybe giv eme enough time we will fix her for you
moving to new blog
i know computers alot. i could have esily gotten a job repairing themif i wanted
you right cajun we need at least 36 hours are more..thats why i think if the nhc feels this is a threat to our area they have to come out with some info soon or they will be a stampede getting out of here...
its to early gpt we have to see if this s component will still be there in the next 3 hours..
Katrina is probably now to far south to make the telconnection with the TROF that has not dug south yet. Katrina will remain behind and take a path wnw and then nw towards central gulf coast. LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS!!! This will give hint to Katrina's future path.
satellite and radar loops confirm that Katrina has increased forward speed.
I definitely see her flirting with category 5. But as I said in my blog, much of what goes into making a storm category 5 is internal, rather than external. She will not miss out for lack of fuel, though, and gulf conditions look perfect.
StormFlop on steroids! :S
She's try'n so hard to wrap that eyewall around. Some one stick an I.V. in her..
some people have a knack for prediction...maybe its luck or lots of education or a combo of both. Stormtop really impressed me from yesterday to today. I wasnt sure if it was some exagerration, but its almost like he can see where all the cards are playing 5 days ahead of the rest of us. It may be wise to pay attention to his pretty accurate information.
Hi there...just letting you panhandler(s) know that those of us on the Space Coast who were hit so bad last year (along with you all) are praying that this one passes you by! It sure seems that our magnet lost all its strength last year and we have been blessed and lucky!

Good Luck