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Kate Forms near Bahamas; Megh Heads toward Yemen Coast after Battering Socotra Island

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:23 PM GMT on November 09, 2015

Kate Forms Near Bahamas; Megh Heads Toward Yemen Coast after Battering Socotra Island

Tropical Storm Kate formed on Monday morning near the Central Bahamas, an unusual occurrence for November during an El Niño year (see below). At 10 am EST Monday, Kate was located about 15 miles east-northeast of Cat Island, moving northwest at 15 mph. The most recent Hurricane Hunter flight confirmed flight-level winds of 50 knots and SFMR surface winds of 40-42 knots, which led NHC to bump up Kate’s top sustained winds slightly to 40 knots (45 mph) in its 10 am advisory. Kate is not the most organized-looking tropical storm, with little evidence of spiral banding and only a ragged cluster of moderately strong convection (showers and thunderstorms) around its small center. Outflow near the top of Kate appears relatively healthy, though.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Tropical Storm Kate at 1515Z (8:15 am EST) Monday, November 9, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Kate should be able to maintain its named status for at least a day or two as it chugs past the Bahamas toward the northwest and north, well off the U.S. East Coast. After a season of relentlessly high wind shear across much of the tropical Atlantic, the shear values are quite low over Kate (5 – 10 knots). Sea surface temperatures near Kate are close to record-warm levels for the time of year: around 28°C (82°F), or 1-2°C above average. Kate is predicted by NHC to strengthen to a 65-mph tropical storm by Wednesday as it recurves to the northwest of Bermuda. Both the statistical SHIPS model and the dynamical HWRF model bring Kate close to the threshold of hurricane strength by Wednesday, with recent runs of the GFDL model even more bullish. Rather than decaying near the end of its life, Kate should then hold its own as a powerful post-tropical cyclone once it gets swept into an upper-level trough moving off the East Coast.

Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic: uncommon during El Niño Novembers
Kate is bucking the tide of El Niño by developing in November. Strong El Niño events typically bring the Atlantic season to an earlier-than-usual close, as the subtropical jet stream gets an increasing boost toward late autumn. If we look at those years since 1950 in which the October-to-December Niño3.4 index was in an El Niño state (at least +0.5°C), only about one in three of those years has produced a named storm in November. Outside of these El Niño years, almost every November since the Atlantic entered an active period in 1995 has seen at least one named storm. The only Atlantic hurricanes observed during El Niño Novembers since 1950 are Ida (2009), Florence and Gordon (1994), the “Perfect Storm” (1991), Frances (1986), and Martha (1969). There have been four years since 1950 with a strong El Niño in play during Oct-Dec (Niño3.4 index of at least +1.5°C). During those four years--1997, 1982, 1972, and 1965--only one named storm managed to develop in November: 1972’s Subtropical Storm Delta, which played out harmlessly far out in the central Atlantic.

Kate is the 11th named system of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, just below the 12 named systems observed in an average year from 1970 to 2010. The number of major hurricanes--two, Danny and Joaquin--is also comparable to the long-term average. However, there have only been three hurricanes, less than half of the average total of 6.5. Back in April, the forecast team from Colorado State University called for just 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 40. The April outlook from private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc., called for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, with a predicted ACE of 56. As of this morning, the Atlantic ACE value for 2015 was up to 57, still well below the season-long average of 110. The storm totals observed to date (11 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes) fall within the 70%-likelihood brackets from NOAA’s outlook for the Atlantic season issued in late May.

Tropical Cyclone Megh headed towards a second landfall in Yemen
Tropical Cyclone Megh is threading the needle down the narrow Gulf of Aden in the Arabian Sea, but is weakening due to interaction with land, entrainment of dry air from the nearby deserts, and encounters with cooler patches of water upwelled last week by the passage of Tropical Cyclone Chapala. On Sunday, Megh powered ashore over Yemen's Socotra Island as a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Although news reports from the area remain sparse, it appears likely that Megh brought a second round of devastation to an island hard-hit the previous week by the passage of Tropical Cyclone Chapala. A BBC report cites AFP as reporting at least two deaths on Socotra due to Megh, with a spokesperson for the Socotra Environment Office reporting more homes destroyed by Megh than by Chapala. The latter cyclone passed just to the north of Socotra Island on November 2 when the storm was at Category 3 strength. Satellite images on Monday morning showed that Megh had suffered significant disruption of its cloud pattern, and by the time the storm reaches the south Yemen coast between Mukalla and Aden sometime on Tuesday, Megh will likely be a rapidly weakening tropical storm. Still, Megh will likely dump heavy rains over a desert region unused to seeing them, and widespread destructive flooding is likely near where the center comes ashore.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Megh in the Gulf of Aden, approaching landfall in western Yemen, at 10:05 UTC November 9, 2015. At the time, Megh was a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen by the MODIS instrument on November 3, 2015 at 7:20 UTC. At the time, Chapala was making landfall in Yemen as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Twin major hurricanes in the Arabian Sea: unprecedented in the historical record
Megh is the second major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclone to affect Yemen this month. Just a week ago, Tropical Cyclone Chapala took advantage of the the warmest waters ever recorded in the Arabian Sea at this time of year to intensify into a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds (1-minute average) on October 30, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). This made Chapala the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007 (165 mph winds). Chapala went on to devastate Yemen's Socotra Island and mainland Yemen near the port city of Mukalla on November 3, killing at least eight people and causing widespread destructive flooding. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricanes tool, prior to this year, there had only been five major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones recorded in the Arabian Sea since accurate satellite records began in 1990 (an additional Category 3 storm occurred in 1977.) Thus, two major hurricanes in one month in the Arabian Sea is a remarkable occurrence. Also remarkable is the fact that Megh is the second tropical cyclone to hit Yemen (including Socotra Island) at hurricane strength this month. In the period with good satellite data (1990 – 2014), no tropical cyclones at tropical storm strength hit Yemen, though the nation had been hit by two tropical depressions--Tropical Depression Keila in 2011, and Tropical Depression Three in 2008. That storm was the second costliest natural disaster in Yemeni history, with a $400 million price tag. Longer-term records from 1891 - 2014 show Yemen has been hit by only two tropical storms and no hurricane strength storms; tropical storms hit the coast in May 1959 and May 1960. However, according to Dallas (1891) a tropical cyclone entered the Gulf of Aden in June 1885 and a ship measured 943 mb, making the storm likely to be at least at Category 3 strength (see Membery, 2002, Weather. H/T to Cuban meteorologist Alejandro Adonis Herrera G. for this link.)


Figure 4. Surface analysis of the June 2, 1885 major hurricane in the Gulf of Aden. A ship measured a pressure of 943 mb. Image credit: Membery, Weather, July 2002: "Monsoon tropical cyclones: Part 2."

Air pollution blamed for an increase in strength of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones
The Arabian Sea doesn't get many tropical cyclones since it is small; furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon keeps tropical cyclones from forming much of the year, allowing only a short season from May to early June before the monsoon arrives, and another short season in late October through November after the monsoon has departed. Strong Arabian Sea storms are rare due to high wind shear and copious dry air from the deserts of the Middle East, with just three Category 4 or 5 storms ever recorded--Gonu in 2007, Phet in 2010, and Chapala in 2015. Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the pre-monsoon period in May and June have become stronger over the past 30 years owing to a reduction in vertical wind shear brought about by dimming of sunlight from air pollution particles primarily emitted in India, said Evan et al. in a 2011 paper published in the journal Nature. The authors did not study how post-monsoon tropical cyclones in October and November, like Tropical Cyclones Chapala and Megh, might be impacted by air pollution. However, the authors did speculate that continued growth in air pollution emissions might also reduce wind shear in the post-monsoon October-November period, and wrote, "In such a case it is plausible that very intense tropical cyclones, which have so far been limited to the pre-monsoon period, could begin to emerge in the post-monsoon season as well."

El Niño matches weekly record from 1997-98
The blockbuster El Niño event of 2015 continues to gather strength in the tropical Pacific. In its weekly update issued on Monday, NOAA reported that the Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature over the past week was 2.8°C above average. This is the highest weekly value reached to date during the current El Niño event, and it matches the peak departure from normal of 2.8°C observed in late November 1997 during the record-setting 1997-98 El Niño. The weekly value could rise a bit more in the next several weeks before leveling off and then slowly dropping through early 2016, as expected from the classic evolution of major El Niño events and in line with indications from forecast models. Even as the Niño3.4 values gradually decline, El Niño’s influence on Northern Hemisphere weather should actually peak during the winter months, as the polar and subtropical jet streams feel the maximum seasonal influence from the El Niño configuration in the tropics. See our Weather Underground El Niño forecast page for much more background on what to expect from this El Niño event, both nationally and globally.



Figure 5. Forecasts issued in mid-October by dynamical and statistical models for the Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) for nine overlapping 3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. Forecasts are typically most accurate from June to December and least accurate from February to May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario. Image credit: International Research Institute for Climate and Society/NOAA Climate Prediction Center.


Figure 6. A man dives into Lake Geneva on an unusually warm day in Saint-Prex on Sunday, November 8, 2015, as record-breaking temperatures for the month of November hit Switzerland. Image credit: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty images.

Heat records tumble over Southeast US, Europe, Japan
November is thumbing its nose at the calendar when it comes to unusually warm temperatures across several parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Much of the Southeast U.S., and especially Florida, have experienced their warmest stretch of weather ever recorded in the first week of November. Uncommon November warmth has also bathed Europe: high temperatures on Sunday ranged from the 60s to near 80°F over much of France and Switzerland, with readings as warm as 30°C (86°F) in parts of Spain and Japan. Stay tuned for details: WU weather historian Christopher Burt is about to dive into the many monthly heat records being established this month in North America, Europe, and Asia, as the planet hurtles toward what is virtually certain to be its warmest year since record keeping began more than a century ago.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane El Niño Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.
Thanks Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson.
From the last blog...
Quoting 274. StormTrackerScott:



Anytime you see Nino 4 spiking like it is watchout as Nino 3.4 isn't done with just 2.8C. We should eclipse 3C in the next couple of weeks to make this El-Nino the strongest ever. I also suspect we might peak @ 3.2C in December as there is a new OKW building subsurface as there were 9C anomalies in a small area before the TAO site went down this past weekend.


Amazingly, despite the record NINO 4 SSTs, the Trans Nino Index is still positive. Aside from the 1997-98 & 1982-83 super El Ninos & 1951-52 (albeit barely), every other El Nino since 1950 has occurred in concert with a -TNI (i.e. NINO 4 > 1-2), thus this El Nino has clearly distinguished itself among the rest of the pack and can certainly be classified as a "Super" event. The increasing zonal SST gradient in the tropical Pacific with the NINO 4 warming at a faster rate than the eastern regions is to blame for the relatively disproportionate number of +TNI El Ninos since the mid 20th century, which is amazing considering that through the 1930s, the frequency of +TNI El Ninos was nearly double that of -TNI events, now they've become an extremely rare occurrence, set aside for only the strongest NINOs... Given the proxy records, where (excluding the evolution of the Maritime Continent archipelago) a weaker zonal SST gradient evolving concomitantly with alterations in precession & obliquity tended to be associated with a dampened ENSO response, thus, despite climate model uncertainties, it could be implied that ENSO amplitude would tend increase in the future due to the expectation that observed amplification of the zonal SST gradient over the last century & a half persists. I wouldn't necessarily say that this is the strongest we've observed, the 1877-78 & 1997-98 El Ninos topped out around +2.4-2.5C in the tri-monthlies & there's more than enough uncertainty in the reconstructions to suggest these events were still stronger than this year, although it will not mean much in the grand scheme of things. The ENSO wave behavior seems more reminiscent to the 1877-78 & 1888-89 Super events, with one year of +ENSO preconditioning (which doesn't seem to be a function of random noise in the reconstructions) & intensification through the solstice, that apart from perhaps 1986-88, is virtually unprecedented in the modern era. Hence, we likely haven't seen an El Nino of this ferocity, placement, & progression since the late 19th century.

December certainly looks like it could be an absolute blowtorch in the Northern Rockies, Upper midwest, Great Lakes, & possibly even the northeastern US. This month has consistently shown the strongest signaling overall for warmth in the northern tier, & the most agreement amongst the climate models & the Strong-Super NINO composites.

US December temps Strong-Super El Ninos (1895-present)


IMME N America December 2015 2mT forecast (2 month lead)






NOAA's 20CRv2c December N America 1000mb T (1981-2010 base pd) Strong-Super El Ninos (1865-present). The warmth in the northern tier of the US & south-central Canada is jaw dropping considering that this composite is being artificially cooled by a warmer, modern-day base period.
Thanks doks!
From the previous blog:

Quoting 283. BayFog:


Plenty of rain this AM in the SF Bay Area. Steady moderate rainfall with pockets of very heavy rain. Local forecasters are taking a closer look at a severe cell headed for the coast at Half Moon Bay, looking at possible rotation as the mild SSTs are resulting in strong lapse rates, plus the vorticity and cold air associated with the upper low.


We just had a thunderclap right over our building here in Santa Clara that woke everybody up. It's a nice, beautiful rainy day and Monday.
2015 is now going to be the warmest year recorded after 2014's record Global warmth.

Congratulation's Earth dweller's!
Thank you both...
In advance...Doing much better...I kicked some butt..Thankfully
Can anyone tell me where I can find the HRRR?
Quoting 7. Patrap:

2015 is now going to be the warmest year recorded after 2014's record Global warmth.

Congratulation's Earth dweller's!


This is Good News! We've all known for quite some time that Earth has been too damn cold. And who likes the cold? Not I. Millennia after the Ice Age and Earth is the warmest its ever been. Congratulations to all of us!
The list of climate abnormalities this year is stark. Two Arabian Sea majors, the Central Pacific's busiest season ever by double, Patricia the strongest ever recorded hurricane (how strong was Haiyan really?), record SST's all over the world, Canada, Northwest US, Southeast Asia burning, record Spring heat in Alaska, historic floods in South Carolina, Texas, and Oklahoma, all time heat records worldwide being broken left and right, Arctic sea ice near all time low, Cape Verde islands hurricane which was the furthest east a hurricane has ever formed, two top five fatality heat waves for Pakistan and India, and the beat goes on and on. Mother Nature is not happy with us.
Quoting 2. LargoFl:


Something in the SW Caribbean?
Quoting 10. 62901IL:

Can anyone tell me where I can find the HRRR?


Copy this link:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/
Thank You Both; that area near the Bahamas has been pretty favorable this year due to the warm SST's and low shear pockets even when we have seen higher shear across other portions of the Atlantic MDR; Joaquin gave the Bahamas quite a lashing earlier this year after finding very favorable conditions and jumping up to a high end hurricane. El Nino aside, that region near the Bahamas can be pretty dangerous if the right disturbance comes along (and we did not have many waves make it into this region this season)..........At least this is one is moving much quicker than Joaquin and not as well organized.
In advance...Doing much better...I kicked some butt..Thankfully
Quoting 15. Tornado6042008X:



Copy this link: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/


Thanks!
Quoting 10. 62901IL:

Can anyone tell me where I can find the HRRR?


Just google "HRRR model weatherbell"
The temperature reportedly reached 29 C / 84 F in the Pyrenees-Atlantiques département of France on November 8.

Link
Thanks Bob and Jeff...
East winds in the Abacos...nothing too dramatic. 20knts.
Quoting 17. PalmBeachWeather:

In advance...Doing much better...I kicked some butt..Thankfully



Good to see you on and happy to hear you are doing much better
There are also reports of record all-time (not just November) hottest temperatures at locations in northern Australia on November 8.

Link
Quoting 5. SouthBayDrK:

From the previous blog:



We just had a thunderclap right over our building here in Santa Clara that woke everybody up. It's a nice, beautiful rainy day and Monday.


Surely you jest, I can see from your avatar that you dont look too awake. lol
Pray for me you guys. I am sick and I know that God is the ultimate healer.
Thanks for the busy entry, Doc and Bob, with a nice pic from Lake Geneva. A lot to cover on a Monday!

Trying to follow recent tweets and fb-sites in Arabian I get the impression that Meg's toll on Socotra is more severe than Chapala's (which doesn't come as a surprise at all). Obviously several persons died (saw quite detailed descriptions of age and gender), some more missing, lot of injured; boats destroyed, hundreds of homes damaged and thousands of livestock lost :-(
Numbers still shifting though and not confirmed (if ever) ...

Edit: Just saw this article from afp with one of the numbers I spotted in Arabian tweets (latest and highest number I saw is eight - with reports from more remote locations coming in):
Second cyclone kills 6 on Yemen island
By AFP, Published: November 9, 2015
Megh in Gulf of Aden and Deep Depression over India :


Deep Depression traversing India and headed for the Arabian Sea:


Thanks for the update! Kate and Megh making waves this November 2015. Wow...
Squall line has moved off into the Central Valley. Rain has stopped over much of the SF Bay Area after some good downpours and lots of lightning in some spots. We'll probably get another round of showers off the ocean by midafternoon as per the usual in this cold upper low post frontal setup.
*Sweat* (yes, still warm in Germany, days and nights) ...

Global temperature rise to pass 1 degree C this year - Britain's Met Office
Source: Reuters - Mon, 9 Nov 2015 13:05 GMT

CO2 levels hit record high for 30th year in a row - WMO
Source: Reuters - Mon, 9 Nov 2015 12:30 GMT

------------------------------

Here something to cool down ;-)

Spectacular Video of Ice Breaking off Glacier
Iceland Review, By Vala Hafstad Nature & Travel November 06, 2015 09:51
A video posted on Youtube Tuesday shows a huge, chunk of ice, covered with volcanic ash, breaking off Svínafellsjökull glacier, which is part of Vatnajökull glacier. It then rolls on the side, like a blue whale, and floats majestically into a lagoon. Behind it, the tranquility of a whale-shaped, blue iceberg is disturbed and it, too, rolls on the side, as is if in a synchronized dance. ...



Is Kate trying to form an eyewall? It almost looks that way.
Quoting 37. LostTomorrows:

Is Kate trying to form an eyewall? It almost looks that way.


Does not look that way from this RAMMB shot but it is firing convection at the center:


Kate.
Steady rain for the last hour in Tampa

Quoting 22. tampabaymatt:




Rainfall in the east gulf is a lot more impressive right now than model progs showed. Hopefully it will actually make it onshore. The only tricky thing is that there is strong high pressure between the tropical storm in the Bahamas and the front in the gulf, and there is some coastal divergence, so it's making it tough for convection to push onshore. Hopefully it will make it onshore it give much needed rainfall. We just picked up over an inch again overnight into this morning, pushing or 48 total to at least 3.50, though I haven't done the exact measurement cause it's early in the day.

The airport here in Tallahassee has had even more than me, about 4.25 in the last 48 hours, and Apalachicola has had over 10 inches, this has been the major rain event we've needed oh so badly.
More record territory temperatures in the Orlando area today. Currently 90F at the Orlando Executive Airport and 89F at OIA. Hopefully that rain to the west holds together so we can get a good soaking. The cooler weather is on the way, but it appears it will be a slow, several day process to move in.
Kate is not looking as organized to my eyes in this loop over the last few hours. And note that the movement of the winds (circulation) away from the the core are starting to move more out of the SE than in a counter-clockwise rotation in the Western quad based upon the wind direction out of the nearest bouy at Grand Bahamas Island. It's already starting to feel the effects of the TROF and sheer IMHO.




Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location:<
Mon, 09 Nov 2015 18:00:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150) at 9.9 kt gusting to 11.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:
30.03 in and falling
Air Temperature:82.9 F
Dew Point:73.4 F

Quoting 11. Tornadocane:



This is Good News! We've all known for quite some time that Earth has been too damn cold. And who likes the cold? Not I. Millennia after the Ice Age and Earth is the warmest its ever been. Congratulations to all of us! It's going to cold this year bank on that, snowy southeast is on the way
Quoting 7. Patrap:

2015 is now going to be the warmest year recorded after 2014's record Global warmth.

Congratulation's Earth dweller's!


I'm not sure what that is supposed to say. What's with the apostrophes? Without them is it supposed to read: Congratulation is Earth dweller is? Or some kind of possessive like: The Earth dweller is possessed by the congratulation? I am sure there are several other iterations that it could mean, just not quite wrapping my head around it.
was not 1994 el nino yr? two nov. atlantic cyclones i believe.
12Z Euro very stormy across the SE US with some extreme totals being depicted from FL to coastal NC of nearly foot the next 10 days most of this occurs Monday thru next Wednesday.

Pattern being shown by the Euro is what you would expect from a strong El-Nino with a jet undercutting across the South and ridging building across the Northern US & Canada.

Quoting 22. tampabaymatt:




Is there a risk of tornados from this?
Yemen's Socotra island hit by deadly hurricane
Ruaa Alameri, Al Arabiya News Monday, 9 November 2015

Apart from the human losses of course, I particularly hate to read this:
"The cyclone destroyed a lot of trees that are only found in Socotra. UNESCO is offering technical support for the island by sending fuel, because people are destroying the trees to keep warm," she (UNESCO World Heritage Centre official Nada al-Hassan) added.


Socotra Dragon Blood Tree. Source wiki.
And here a nice photo gallery from National Geographic.


Source Socotra Info.
Looks like record rains possibly on tap from Florida to North Carolina early next week. Still a ways out but confidence seems to growing.
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have now had 3 rainy weekends in a row in SE TX......With a 4th coming again this weekend. Possibly highs only in the 50s on Sunday, so winter is about to show up.

Good day.
the glacier video had ice chunks flying right at dem boyz headz!!! Too funny
Quoting 48. Famoguy1234:



Is there a risk of tornados from this?


Don't think so. There are no warnings out right now.
thanks for the tidbit about the 1885 Gulf of Aden cyclone. I'll have to track down information about it.
Quoting 45. LouisPasteur:



I'm not sure what that is supposed to say. What's with the apostrophes? Without them is it supposed to read: Congratulation is Earth dweller is? Or some kind of possessive like: The Earth dweller is possessed by the congratulation? I am sure there are several other iterations that it could mean, just not quite wrapping my head around it.

You are Hiding the Facts stated by Patrap behind obscure semantics?
It would have been far more brave of you to just come out and say you don't believe in the Facts.
I am going wade fishing near Apalachicola to my spot on Wed am; current forecast is for sunny skies, calm inshore waters, and lows in the 50's (highs in the 80s). Caught my biggest trout there on Veterans Day 6 years ago and a huge Redfish (also one of my biggest) there 3 years ago on Vets Day...............Hopefully, with the nice temps and warm coastal sst's for November, I will have a repeat this year (they like to fatten up on the flats this time of the year before moving up the creeks and rivers for the Winter once the first "true" cold fronts come through).
Tokyo, Osaka, other mega-cities will be swamped by surging sea levels, even at 2 degree rise: study
AFP-JIJI, STAFF REPORT


PARIS – Large swaths of Tokyo, Osaka, Shanghai, New York and other cities will slip under the waves even if an upcoming climate summit limits global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, scientists reported Sunday.

A spike in Earth’s temperature of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) would submerge land currently occupied by 280 million people, while an increase of 4 degrees Celsius — humanity’s current trajectory — would cover areas populated by more than 600 million people, the study said.

“Two degrees Celsius warming will pose a long-term, existential danger to many great coastal cities and regions,” said lead author Ben Strauss, vice president for sea level and climate impacts at Climate Central, a U.S.-based research group.

The study shows 34 million people in Japan live in future seascapes under the 4 C scenario, while even warming of only 2 C would leave 18 million peoples’ homes under water.

Tokyo and Osaka would be hit hard under both scenarios.

In the capital, 7.5 million people — 30 percent of Tokyo’s population — would be affected by the sea level rise under the 4 C scenario. A rise by 2 C would leave 4.2 million people’s homes underwater.

In Osaka, 6.2 million people — a staggering 38 percent of its population — would be affected under the 4 C rise. Under the 2 C scenario, the city would still see 4.2 million affected.

Sea level rises corresponding to these 2 C or 4 C scenarios could unfold in two hundred years, but would more likely happen over many centuries, perhaps as long as 2,000 years, according to the research, published by Climate Central.

Capping the rise in Earth’s temperatures to 2 C above pre-industrial levels is the core goal of the 195-nation U.N. climate summit in Paris that runs from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11.

The most effective way to slow global warming is to slash the output of the greenhouse gases that drive it.

But even if emissions reduction pledges — many of them conditioned on financial aid — submitted by 150 nations ahead of the Paris summit are fulfilled, it would still put us on the path for a 3 C world, the United Nations has warned.

Achieving the 2-degree goal remains a serious challenge.

Strauss and colleagues apply on a global scale the same methodology they used for a recent study that focused on temperature-linked sea level rise in the United States, published in the U.S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

That study concluded that both Miami and New Orleans are doomed to face crippling rises in sea levels.

It says the country hit hardest by sea level rise under the 4 C scenario is China.

Today, some 145 million people live in Chinese cities and coastal areas that would eventually become ocean were temperatures to climb that high.

Four of the 10 most devastated mega-cities would be Chinese: land occupied today by 44 million people in Shanghai, Tianjin, Hong Kong and Taizhou would be underwater.

India, Vietnam and Bangladesh do not fare much better. All told, Asia is home to 75 percent of the populations that today reside in zones that would no longer be classified as land in a climate-altered future.

Thirty-four million people in Japan, 25 million the United States, 20 million in the Philippines, 19 million Egypt and 16 million in Brazil are also in future 4 C seascapes.

While the 2 C scenario is also grim, limiting warming to that extent would spare China and other nations much misery, said Strauss.

“There is a world of difference between 2 C and 4 C, which threatens more than double the damage,” he said. “We have a very large choice ahead of us.”

The sea level rise corresponding to a 2 C jump would eventually be 4.7 meters, and for 4 C almost double that, the study found.

The projections are based on climate models taking into account the expansion of ocean water as it warms, the melting of glaciers, and the decay of both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.

Timing is harder to predict, Strauss said.

“It is easier to estimate how much ice will eventually melt from a certain amount of warming than how quickly it will melt,” he said.

Normally a study of this nature would be published by a peer-reviewed journal, as was the earlier research on the U.S.

In this case, however, Strauss felt that the new results should be taken into account ahead of the crucial climate summit in Paris.

“These findings seemed too relevant to COP21″ — the 21st Conference of the Parties, the official name for the U.N. climate meeting — “to risk that they be published afterwards,” he said.

AFP sent the study to four experts — including Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, until this year vice-president of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — for evaluation, and all of them described the work as “solid” and methodologically sound.

Strauss said his study shows that the stakes at the Paris negotiations are extremely high.

“Some historic meetings draw national boundaries,” he said. “This one will affect the global line between land and sea.”

An interactive map showing impacts at different temperature scenarios is available at choices.climatecentral.org.
Torrential stuff here for most of the day.
The Water Authority will be pleased, as will the Consumer, as the reservoirs are still way below average.
Quoting 51. RitaEvac:

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have now had 3 rainy weekends in a row in SE TX......With a 4th coming again this weekend. Possibly highs only in the 50s on Sunday, so winter is about to show up.

Good day.


Very stormy pattern continues to dig more and more into FL as per some of these long range models. Euro isn't hold back for those living from FL to NC. Again things can change but if this holds then there could be some record breaking rains early next week across the SE US.
Quoting 54. terstorm:

thanks for the tidbit about the 1885 Gulf of Aden cyclone. I'll have to track down information about it.

Some interesting chunks here on wiki: It even sank a German vessel, among others.
It's November and I just had to come inside because I got overheated working on my car. I'm ready for a 5-10 degree drop in temperature.
Kate NE of Eleuthera now with some banding evident on the south side.
Quoting 61. Sfloridacat5:

It's November and I just had to come inside because I got overheated working on my car. I'm ready for a 5-10 degree drop in temperature.


Low of 54 expected @ my location Saturday Night with upper 70's during the day but that nice weather might quickly get displaced with rainy conditions by next Monday.
From Met Office UK:

Global temperatures set to reach 1 °C marker for first time

9 November 2015 - Met Office data for 2015 so far shows that, for the first time, global mean temperature at the Earth's surface is set to reach 1 °C above pre-industrial levels


This represents an important marker as the world continues to warm due to human influence.

'Uncharted territory'

Based on data from January to September, the HadCRUT dataset jointly run by the Met Office and the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia shows 2015 global mean temperature at 1.02 °C (±0.11 °C) above pre-industrial levels*.

Stephen Belcher, Director of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: "We have seen a strong El Nino develop in the Tropical Pacific this year and that will have had some impact on this year's global temperature.

"We've had similar natural events in the past, yet this is the first time we're set to reach the 1 °C marker and it's clear that it is human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory."

Read more >>
Quoting 55. pottery:


You are Hiding the Facts stated by Patrap behind obscure semantics?
It would have been far more brave of you to just come out and say you don't believe in the Facts.


If I said that I would be lying about what I believe. I was just confused about what she was trying to say.

Addendum:

My question was not about semantics, it was a matter of punctuation. Punctuation can have deadly consequences. Case in point:

Let's eat, grandma!
Let's eat grandma!
Quoting 66. LouisPasteur:



If I said that I would be lying about what I believe. I was just confused about what she was trying to say.

OK, sorry.
What Pat said was pretty clear to me, so I thought you weren't agreeing.
Quoting 59. StormTrackerScott:



Very stormy pattern continues to dig more and more into FL as per some of these long range models. Euro isn't hold back for those living from FL to NC. Again things can change but if this holds then there could be some record breaking rains early next week across the SE US.


Yeah it looks to be exciting in about a week from now for the whole of Florida. We should have a better idea on Thursday about how the multitude of systems interact with each other.
Quoting 45. LouisPasteur:



I'm not sure what that is supposed to say. What's with the apostrophes? Without them is it supposed to read: Congratulation is Earth dweller is? Or some kind of possessive like: The Earth dweller is possessed by the congratulation? I am sure there are several other iterations that it could mean, just not quite wrapping my head around it.


Did you try interpreting it as "The congratulation belongs to the Earth dweller." as in "Congratulation is Earth dweller's."?
Quoting 44. Accu35blog:




I was being a bit facetious when I wrote that earlier today. I do think it will become colder across the south. As for now, my location in South Florida is experiencing above average highs in the 85-87 range and low temperatures in the 77-81 range. This has been going on for over a month now so a change from mid 80s to high 70s and low 80s is definitely welcomed.
Good afternoon all .... today turned out to be pretty hectic ..... and HOT ! I am assuming due to Kate to our east .... lots of sunshine and light winds have been our experienced conditions for most of the day over New Providence...



If Kate remains on a track parallel to our archipelago, we may "luck out", as the people say. So long as the Tstorm activity remains bundled closely to the centre and off to the NW, we should be good to go.
Quoting 68. Tornadocane:



Yeah it looks to be exciting in about a week from now for the whole of Florida. We should have a better idea on Thursday about how the multitude of systems interact with each other.


Things might go back and forth between now and then but the overall pattern seems to be continuing to trend stormier across the SE US as the southern jet gets more entrenched across the Southern US.

Pattern shaping up is featuring troughs slamming into the Western US and then diving across the South as the Northern Branch remains non existent.



Quoting 69. DCSwithunderscores:



Did you try interpreting it as "The congratulation belongs to the Earth dweller." as in "Congratulation is Earth dweller's."?


Very nice. A mixture of a contraction and a possessive. Somebody's synapses are firing this Monday. Well done.
66) btw, he, not she. Not a cloud in sight over S C IL at lunch, recv'd about 1/4" from Thurs night front passage. Avg fall temps have returned, saw a pretty good frost this a.m., but still nothing killer yet. Currently 56 w/ 28 dew pt, 30.14" w/ light N-NE winds. Rain and possible severe forecast for Wed, on the N edge of enhanced zone. Nov tornadoes rare, but EF-4 in Washington, IL was in Nov.
Wow, this crazy year continues it's craziness. It's hard to believe not one, but two major hurricane's impacted the Arabian Sea in a week. While the weather here in Seattle isn't anywhere as crazy as many others are experiencing, it is far from just drizzle this week. This is clearly evidenced by my already being under a Special Weather Statement primarily for a storm due to hit on Friday. It's pretty rare they issue statements this far in advance. If the models are to be believed, it should be a windy, wild weekend for the PNW, especially on the coast. I've listed the Special Weather statement below. Please consult our Seattle NWS Discussion for further info.

355 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2015

...PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WINDY CONDITIONS... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET STREAM AND MAY PRODUCE A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE HAZARDS INCLUDE FLOODING... DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE WAVES ON THE COAST.

AT THIS TIME...MANY FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL THIS HEAVY WOULD PRODUCE FLOODING ON RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CENTRAL CASCADES MAY ALSO FLOOD IF THE FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES SOUTH. HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO RAISE THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES ON STEEP SLOPES AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON.

MANY FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIND THIS STRONG WOULD RESULT IN SOME TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.

LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE WASHINGTON COAST ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REACH 19 TO 23 FEET. THESE WAVES...IF THEY OCCUR...WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ALBRECHT
How Fossil Fuel Executives Fooled Themselves on Climate Change

Oil companies’ climate change policies may not have been criminal, but they were self-deceiving.

In his 2011 book, Deceit and Self-Deception: Fooling Yourself the Better to Fool Others, the Rutgers anthropologist Robert Trivers examines the evolutionary roots of self-delusion. According to the review of the book in The Guardian, Trivers “explains how the human male drive for power and control correlates with ignorance and self-delusion.” Magnified by the power of money, the focus on “building shareholder value,” the cult of the all-wise CEO, and the self-reinforcing bubble in which fossil fuel executives live and operate, these forces are strongly displayed in the self-deception and moral confusion of fossil fuel executives. (It’s worth noting that this applies mostly to U.S. fossil fuel companies; European companies have taken a much more realistic and progressive stance on climate effects.)

Whatever their personal beliefs on climate change—a psychological puzzle that would take a university department to plumb—it’s clear that the executives at Exxon Mobil, Peabody, and other fossil fuel companies have engaged in a long, thorough, and pervasive campaign of ignorance and self-delusion. Soon they will find out what that campaign will cost them.


Link
Quoting 61. Sfloridacat5:

It's November and I just had to come inside because I got overheated working on my car. I'm ready for a 5-10 degree drop in temperature.


A welcomed relief in sight if this verifies next week. This sweating in November is getting really old!

New foam batteries promise fast charging and higher capacity. Nice!
Link
Kate has been going back and forth this afternoon in terms of appearance and organization; the symmetry of the core looks better at the moment but the convection has also subsided a bit. Waiting on NHC's take at this point as to the current prognosis:





Quoting 66. LouisPasteur:
My question was not about semantics, it was a matter of punctuation. Punctuation can have deadly consequences. Case in point:

Let's eat, grandma!
Let's eat grandma!

Depends if you are Little Red Riding Hood or the Big Bad Wolf.
Quoting 79. weathermanwannabe:

Kate has been going back and forth this afternoon in terms of appearance and organization; the symmetry of the core looks better at the moment but the convection has also subsided a bit. Waiting on NHC's take at this point as to the current prognosis:






Looks like a ball getting ready to hit a wall .....
Absolutely nothing to report from North Eleuthera, 25.46N 76.62. Light breezes, 5-10mph from the N, and very light rain on and off.


Eli Rabett:

Will they be able to save the Earth and their riches before the evil Obama sells them out at the UNFCCC COP21? Stay tuned to Rabett Run

BOB03 (96B) recently made landfall over Tamil Nadu (India) at around 14:00 PM UTC/19:30 PM IST..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2015
23:30 PM IST November 9 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over north coastal Tamil Nadu moved northwards with a speed of 6 km/h during past 6 hours and now lays centered over northeast Tamil Nadu and adjoining south interior Karnataka near 12.4N 79.9E.

It would move north northwestward during next 12 hours and then west northwestward and weaken gradually.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over area between 9.0N to 16.0N and west of 85.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The winds are higher over the northeast sector.. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system. The estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 995 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 12.7N 79.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Additional Information
===============
The low level relative vorticity is 200x10-5sec-1, convergence is 30x10-5sec-1, and upper level divergence is 30x10-5sec-1 to the north of system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 13.0N in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation to the northeast. The vertical wind shear is about 20-30 knots around the system center. Due to land interaction and high vertical wind shear the deep depression would weaken gradually.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MEGH (ARB05-2015)
23:30 PM IST November 9 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh moved west northwestwards with a speed of 15 km/h during past six hours and now lays centered over Gulf of Aden near 12.6N 47.2E, about 240 km east of Aden.

It would move west northwestwards, weaken gradually, and cross Yemen coast near 13.0N around 0600 AM UTC on November 10th as a severe cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T3.0/CI 4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over the area between 11.5 to 15.5 and 45.0 to 50.0. Minimum cloud top temperature in wall cloud region is -46C. The cloud organization continued to shows signs of weakening.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The winds are higher over the northern sector. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 986 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.3N 45.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.3N 44.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Additional Information
=================
The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 14.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation located to the northeast of the system center. The system would move west northwestwards under the influence of the above ridge and anti-cyclonic circulation.

The low level relative vorticity is 100x10-5sec-1, convergence is 10x10-5sec-1 and upper level divergence is 20x10-5sec-1. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 28-29C. The ocean thermal energy is 30-40 kj/cm2 around the system center and then decreases towards Gulf of Aden. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots around the system center. The low vertical wind shear is mitigating the adverse impact of total precipitable water. The system would weaken gradually, due to lower ocean thermal energy over Gulf of Aden and interaction with land surface.
Quoting 65. Xandra:Global temperatures set to reach 1 °C marker for first time


Not good news yet not unexpected.
Makes for some pretty colors on the 'ole daily anomaly maps:


I followed this fire when it was occurring , it was the largest fire in Alaska in 2007 , and a study done 2 years later reported that is was the largest fire in this region in 5,000 years.


Study: Big North Slope tundra fire sparked long-term permafrost thaw

The biggest wildfire to burn on treeless Arctic tundra triggered a dramatic permafrost thaw that unfolded over several years, new research finds.

A study published in the Nature journal Scientific Reports examines the effects of the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire, which burned about 400 square miles of land on the North Slope, more than all previous North Slope tundra fires combined.

Long after the flames were extinguished on the surface, ice locked in the frozen earth below continued to melt, the study found, causing the land to slump and a pattern of angular ridges to emerge, said the study.


Link
Oily, Contradictory, and Logical
By: Dr. Ricky Rood

This is a continuation of a series preparing for The Conference of the Parties - 21 (COP21) in Paris. COP21 is the next of the annual meetings that are part of the governing body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

My theme, expressed in the first blog in the series, is how things might be different going into COP21 than they were in 2009, the time of the COP in Copenhagen.

As I have been writing the series, I have been thinking about opportunity. A concept I learned from my political scientist colleague Maria Carmen Lemos is the role that opportunity plays in decision making (Lemos and Rood). Many times, perhaps most, it is not the addition of scientific knowledge or the reduction of scientific uncertainty that leads to a policy decision. Rather, it as a complex set of factors that provides the moment, the opportunity, to make a decision. It is the same idea of the teachable moment. Last week was Obama’s opportunity with the Keystone Pipeline.


Link
Nice steady ready across the area today. Nothing heavy. Most gauges getting between .3" and 1".






Shocking images show air pollution in China is so suffocatingly severe that residents are forced to wear GAS MASKS
Liaoning Province in north-east China was shrouded with toxic fumes
The extreme air pollution was caused by coal-burning heating systems
Pollution (PM2.5) levels reached 50 times more than WHO's safe level

Let's HOPE that something is done about this when everyone FLIES to Paris for the next conference ...

Link
91. txjac
I read a article about people fleeing China to Japan for cleaner and safer air.Also the air pollution maybe causing deformities in new born babies.
Quoting 92. washingtonian115:

91. txjac
I read a article about people fleeing China to Japan for cleaner and safer air.Also the air pollution maybe causing deformities in new born babies.


Yep, here's a quote from the article I posted above:

"China's chronic pollution problem has been linked to hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and has become a major source of popular discontent with the government.
PM2.5 particulates can play a role in heart disease, stroke, and lung ailments such as emphysema and cancer."
Saddest thing is that the political will is saying all the right things from the World Bank, the Pentagon, the White House, China, even India is slowly coming on board in regards to taking real action on AGW. Obama has taken the most action from the large polluters world wide and that is very good. All falls far short of real change. What is "proposed" now will slow AGW but the trend is still on a sharp uptick when it comes to CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere. There is a huge gulf between what is being talked about and what must be urgently done. We're no where close to turning this CO2 increase in the opposite direction nor will the world be politically able to do so in the next twenty years. The writing is on the wall, we're losing this war for the planet as we know it.
The shields won't hold forever, Captain!

Quoting 95. Grothar:

The shields won't hold forever, Captain!




PREPARE FOR RAMMING SPEED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 95. Grothar:

The shields won't hold forever, Captain!


Kate looks good.
As long as it does not rain on the 28th, getting married at the beach. Crossing fingers or the wife to be is going to be a wee bit upset!
Quoting 47. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro very stormy across the SE US with some extreme totals being depicted from FL to coastal NC of nearly foot the next 10 days most of this occurs Monday thru next Wednesday.

Pattern being shown by the Euro is what you would expect from a strong El-Nino with a jet undercutting across the South and ridging building across the Northern US & Canada.


Quoting 90. Bucsboltsfan:

Nice steady ready across the area today. Nothing heavy. Most gauges getting between .3" and 1".


There was really heavy convection approaching shore multiple times and it weakened into that lighter stratiform stuff that you are referring to. If those cells actually made it onshore there would have been 2-3 inches in some places as moisture levels are very high with this system. Sadly coastal divergence and high pressure stuck just to the east all led to that cause for convection weakening before reaching the coast.

Quoting 77. capeflorida:



A welcomed relief in sight if this verifies next week. This sweating in November is getting really old!




Just a wee bit cooler in the Suwannee Valley


This is from those dam failures in Brazil this week , this is price of our modern world.

Just for entertainment but...


Quoting 91. txjac:


[...] Let's HOPE that something is done about this when everyone FLIES to Paris for the next conference ...


Not everyone flies to Paris. Professor Kevin Anderson, Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, has not flown since 2004. Recently, he traveled to and from Iceland on a container ship to attend a meeting.

For all US Marines Globally, as we celebrate tomorrow,

United States Marine Corps Commandant's Birthday Message



103. Tornado6042008X
lmao! where does the storm originate from?
Before I head out .....

This is about as good as it gets for a storm in one's vicinity ....

Looks like we've got a Lizzard Blizzard coming in for The Rockies.

Quoting 84. Murko:

Absolutely nothing to report from North Eleuthera, 25.46N 76.62. Light breezes, 5-10mph from the N, and very light rain on and off.
Super!

Quoting 95. Grothar:

The shields won't hold forever, Captain!


So Close and Yet So Far .....
Quoting 106. washingtonian115:

103. Tornado6042008X
lmao! where does the storm originate from?
It originates of the southeast coast of Florida about 24-36 hours prior to the frame shown then races north into our region getting absorbed by the system moving in from the west at that time.
Who among you guys think that we will see a moderate risk for the Day 2 or Day 1 outlook?
Quoting 109. BahaHurican:

Super!

So Close and Yet So Far .....



I've been singing that all day. Mrs. G said if she heard it one more time, I would be so far!!!!
Quoting 108. 62901IL:

Looks like we've got a Lizzard Blizzard coming in for The Rockies.





NWS Utah tweet from November 07—The current temperature at SLC airport is 32°F, the first freeze of the fall. The average date of the first fall freeze is Oct. 19th.
It looks like the bahamas dropped ts warnings. I guess no update at 1
Thank goodness most of the activity is offshore...
Quoting 103. Tornado6042008X:

Just for entertainment but...




Megh went "poof"... But still probably a year worth of rain in that area.
Off topic, but, for the sake of my fellow Houstonians, I'll mention it anyway:





SPC has an enhanced risk area surrounded by a large slight risk across the Southern and Central Plains east into the MS, OH and TN valleys for Wednesday. Damaging winds will likely be the highest threat but tornadoes will also be possible. The slight risk area covers NE TX with only a marginal risk extending into Central and (parts of) SE TX. With a strong CAP forecast to be in place, I expect only a thin line of showers and storms will be possible in the Houston Metro, with areas to NE having a greater chance of seeing some strong/severe storms.

Is my assessment of this week's weather situation correct? (Y/N)

Quoting 121. winter123:

Megh went "poof"... But still probably a year worth of rain in that area.

Indeed: a shadow of its former self. War can go on down there, quite unhampered by bad weather... ;-(
I'm watching two other sites. One in the eastern Caribbean. None is expected to develop.



And this other one

Quoting 111. 62901IL:

Who among you guys think that we will see a moderate risk for the Day 2 or Day 1 outlook?


Looks like there could be some serious weather in the midwest this week.

Quoting 106. washingtonian115:

103. Tornado6042008X
lmao! where does the storm originate from?
LOL! To me it seemed to come out of nowhere, but it seems to be from frontal/tropical origins.
If you'd like to read a good-night-story of an old, exotic continent, the Guardian has a bit for you tonight ...
All the best for today from Germany.

Storm and drought: what Europe has to fear from climate change
Deserts in Spain, snowless ski resorts in Italy, deforestation in Germany – and seas that keep on rising
Tomasz Ulanowski in Warsaw, Manuel Planelles in Madrid, Enrico Martinet in Turin, Martine Valo in Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer, Tina Baier in Munich and Kate Lyons in London
The Guardian, Monday 9 November 2015 07.00 GMT
For most Europeans, the climate change threat is elsewhere: the rising sea levels in south Asia; crop failures in Africa; mightier storms in the tropics, drought in the developing world.
But as François Hollande prepares to host a crucial UN climate summit at the end of this month, his fellow Europeans are already facing subtle harbingers of global warming. Seas, mountains, forests, plains, towns and cities – the risks within Europe itself are many, varied and increasingly difficult to ignore. ...
Quoting 79. weathermanwannabe:

Kate has been going back and forth this afternoon in terms of appearance and organization; the symmetry of the core looks better at the moment but the convection has also subsided a bit. Waiting on NHC's take at this point as to the current prognosis:






Looking like a good healthy November storm.
THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON IS NOT OVER YET!

Tropical Storm Kate appears more organized tonight and is located east of the Florida Coast.

Kate is the 11th named storm of the Atlantic Basin, and is an interesting late-season tropical storm forming in the month of November - during a strong El-Nino year.
If these types of storms hold through the Winter due to El-Nino, and cold air comes in smacking at the right moment, the recipe will be good for big snows.
Kate is looking good, may become the fourth hurricane of the year.
After the recent "Above Average" temps here in Southwest Alabama, it was absolutely amazing to have a cloudy, windy, cool 56 degree day with off and on drizzle. Finally getting into some of that November weather.
Quoting 131. Stormwatch247:

THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON IS NOT OVER YET!

Tropical Storm Kate appears more organized tonight and is located east of the Florida Coast.

Kate is the 11th named storm of the Atlantic Basin, and is an interesting late-season tropical storm forming in the month of November - during a strong El-Nino year.



i would say EL Nino is past strong at this point i would put it at extermely strong EL Nino
Quoting 122. ColoradoBob1:

There is a great balance in laying a dead poet’s words at the feet of a parliament of whores.


Trying to figure out the relation to the blog topic?
Looks like Kate is trying to ventilate.One last hurray before the sheer blast it? When is the next HH flight?
141. beell
142. txjac
@post99

"As long as it does not rain on the 28th, getting married at the beach. Crossing fingers or the wife to be is going to be a wee bit upset!"

Congratulations on your upcoming nuptials! I'll keep my fingers, and toes, crossed for you all
Quoting 105. Patrap:

For all US Marines Globally, as we celebrate tomorrow,

United States Marine Corps Commandant's Birthday Message






Math
And
Reading
Is
Not
Expected ;)
Quoting 139. washingtonian115:

Looks like Kate is trying to ventilate.One last hurray before the sheer blast it? When is the next HH flight?

8 am EST/13z tomorrow morning.
Quoting 134. STICK4816:

Kate is looking good, may become the fourth hurricane of the year.
I agree. And maybe we can squeeze one more system before this season is over.
146. beell
Kate:
HH on the way home. Last center fix, 1010 mb. still some 40 knot SFMR winds east and northeast of the center with TS force winds extending out approx 30 nm. Flight level winds (approx 850 mb) 45-55 knots east and northeast of the center.

NHC may hold intensity as is for now.
147. beell
Quoting 144. TropicalAnalystwx13:


8 am EDT/13z tomorrow morning.


psst...EST. Summer's over dude.
:P
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...KATE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 76.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Quoting 138. Bucsboltsfan:



Trying to figure out the relation to the blog topic?
Me too.
151. beell
Oh well...!
153. beell
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

Kate's cloud pattern is well organized this evening. The center is located beneath a small central dense overcast feature with prominent banding features noted over the northern semicircle. Earlier NOAA reconnaissance data indicated that Kate had strengthened to about 45 kt. Since the plane departed the storm, the satellite presentation has continued to improve, so the intensity is increased to 50 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to remain within a low-to-moderate shear environment and over warm water for another 12 to 18 hours, which should allow for additional strengthening. It is even possible that Kate will become a hurricane on Tuesday before the southwesterly shear becomes strong and the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Kate is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days and is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone and frontal system over the north Atlantic by day 3.

Kate has made the expected northward turn, and will be steered northeastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic and a short-wave trough that is approaching the east coast of the United States. The cyclone should accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward by Tuesday night as it becomes embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies. The updated track is similar to the previous advisory and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.
Quoting 114. all4hurricanes:

It looks like the bahamas dropped ts warnings. I guess no update at 1
Looking at the nicely curving away TC, I am not surprised .... Kate seems much better behaved than Joaquin .... :)
Quoting 149. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...KATE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 76.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Hmm. Made it further west than I expected. Good forecast on this one. .... so far.....
Quoting 148. wxgeek723:


Larry? JK.

Cape Hatteras is about to get whacked though.
Quoting 33. BayFog:

Squall line has moved off into the Central Valley. Rain has stopped over much of the SF Bay Area after some good downpours and lots of lightning in some spots. We'll probably get another round of showers off the ocean by midafternoon as per the usual in this cold upper low post frontal setup.



Rain/snow mix started about a half hour ago in Fallon/Churchill County.
Quoting 91. txjac:

[...]
The extreme air pollution was caused by coal-burning heating systems
Pollution (PM2.5) levels reached 50 times more than WHO's safe level

Let's HOPE that something is done about this when everyone FLIES to Paris for the next conference ...

Link

There is a false narrative that events like these can be attributed to a case of "The Tragedy of the Commons", but in reality it is much simpler: the powerful increasing profits by externalizing expenses at the cost of public welfare and human lives. Not exactly a new phenomena e.g 1952: Thousands Died as Poisonous Air Smothered London (NPR]. Public outcry and political activism was crucial in pushing through clean air laws in Western Europe and the USA to reduce particulates, unfortunately not as much success in curbing the largest air pollutant of them all.
Cooler weather for SFL in time for Thanksgiving and Larry at North coast of Cuba?

160. beell


With another dangerous storm pushing through the Bahamas, reminiscent of Joaquin and its multiple tragedies, I thought some might be interested in reading this short book excerpt that has a happier ending:

Lost at sea: the man who vanished for 14 months

In November 2012, Salvador Alvarenga went fishing off the coast of Mexico. Two days later, a storm hit and he made a desperate SOS. It was the last anyone heard from him – for 438 days.
Real deal coming Wednesday. Looking like a moderate risk likely will be forecast IMO and a tornado outbreak of 20-30 tornadoes is not out of the question. Lot of mojo on the menu as El-Nino continues to do bad things. With this record El-Nino not expected to peak just yet, we can expect this to not be the last, nor likely the strongest, of outbreaks to possibly come.
Quoting 66. LouisPasteur:



If I said that I would be lying about what I believe. I was just confused about what she was trying to say.

Addendum:

My question was not about semantics, it was a matter of punctuation. Punctuation can have deadly consequences. Case in point:

Let's eat, grandma!
Let's eat grandma!
Oh, for heaven's sake! Pat meant: "congratulations, earth dwellers!"

You know, as in "congratulations to you, earth dwellers"

Sheesh!
NHC's Kate has made the expected northward turn... translates as "Kate is being dragged, kicking and streaming..."

You can even see her feet as she struggles upside-down against being carried away from the tropics.



Good night and good luck.
~Edward R. Murrow
Giuseppe Arcimboldo's series of paintings of the seasons:

"Spring" (1563)




"Summer" (1563)




"Autumn" (1573)




"Winter" (1563)

Will Wednesday's event have enough moisture associated with it to create a conducive environment for tornadoes? We know the back end will, where blizzard conditions are likely. Going to be a very close call. This is a fluid situation. Could be a busted forecast with a few tornadoes and more of a straight line wind event or it could be a historic November tornado outbreak. Stay tuned.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2015
5:30 AM IST November 10 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over north coastal Tamil Nadu moved westwards with a speed of 5km/h during past 6 hours and now lays centered over northern Tamil Nadu near 12.4N 79.6E, about 90 km southwest of Chennai and 70 km southeast of Vellore.

It would move westwards and weaken into a depression during next 12 hours.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over area between 9.0N to 16.0N and west of 85.0E. Minimum cloud top temperatures is -71C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of sea along and off northern Tamil Nadu coast and Puducherry coast is rough to very rough. The estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa.

Additional Information
===============
The low level relative vorticity is 150x10-5sec-1, convergence is 20x10-5sec-1, and upper level divergence is 20x10-5sec-1 to the north of system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 17.0N in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation to the northeast. The vertical wind shear is about 20-30 knots around the system center. Due to land interaction and high vertical wind shear the deep depression would weaken further into a depression.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MEGH (ARB05-2015)
5:30 AM IST November 10 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh moved west northwestwards with a speed of 25 km/h during past six hours and now lays centered over Gulf of Aden near 12.9N 45.8E, about 90 km east northeast of Aden.

It would move west northwestwards and cross Yemen coast near 13.0N (northeast of Aden) at around 0600 AM UTC, today and then weaken gradually.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T2.5/CI 3.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over the area between 11.5N to 15.5N and 45.0E to 50.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -84C. The cloud organization continues to show signs of weakening.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 992 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.6N 44.6E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Additional Information
==================
The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 14.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation located to the northeast of the system center. The system would move west northwestwards under the influence of the above ridge and anti-cyclonic circulation.The low level relative vorticity is 50x10-5sec-1, convergence is 10-20x10-5sec-1and upper level divergence is 20x10-5sec-1.

The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots around the system center. The system would weaken rapidly, due to lower ocean thermal energy over Gulf of Aden and interaction with land surface.
Quoting 166. DeepSeaRising:

Will Wednesday's event have enough moisture associated with it to create a conducive environment for tornadoes? We know the back end will, where blizzard conditions are likely. Going to be a very close call. This is a fluid situation. Could be a busted forecast with a few tornadoes and more of a straight line wind event or it could be a historic November tornado outbreak. Stay tuned.

The historic aspect probably isn't going to play out. High wind shear coupled with low CAPE should yield a setup favorable for line segments and isolated tornadoes. I'd set the bar at a dozen and a half touchdowns, and that's being generous. That said, HSLC days can still be dangerous, and I wouldn't be surprised if we get a significant tornado.
Right on the Eve of Veterans Day.

Military identifies remains of 7 Pearl Harbor 'unknowns'
By AUDREY McAVOY,
Last Updated: Monday, November 09, 2015
HONOLULU --
(AP) The remains of seven crew members missing since the USS Oklahoma capsized in the 1941 bombing of Pearl Harbor have been identified, the military said Monday.

The names of the servicemen identified using dental records will be released after their families have been notified.

In June, the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency began digging up the remains of nearly 400 USS Oklahoma sailors and Marines from a veterans cemetery in Honolulu where they were buried as "unknowns."

Within five years, officials expect to identify about 80 percent of the Oklahoma crew members still considered missing.

The military says it started the project because advances in forensic science and technology are improving the ability to identify remains.

On Monday, officials exhumed the last four of 61 caskets containing unknown people from the Oklahoma. Many of the caskets include the remains of multiple individuals.

Families will have the option of receiving remains as they are identified, or waiting until the agency has more pieces of a body or even a complete skeleton. Navy casualty officers will let families know their options.

Altogether, 429 men on board the World War II battleship were killed. Only 35 were identified in the years immediately after.

Identification work will be conducted at agency laboratories in Hawaii and Nebraska. DNA analysis will be conducted at the Armed Forces DNA Identification Laboratory at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware.

More than 2,400 sailors, Marines and soldiers were killed in the attack on Pearl Harbor. The Oklahoma's casualties were second only to the USS Arizona, which lost 1,177 men.

-------

Salute to all the men and women who currently serve in the Navy, Army, Air Force, Marines, and Coast Guard, and all the veterans still alive or who have passed on from this life. God bless each and every one of you this week and thank you for your services.
This has been the warmest past 4 weeks in south Florida I can ever recall not one cool down yet and it's nov. 10th. Please send some cool air down this way! Highs have been near 90 non stop!
Quoting 170. Austin72893:

This has been the warmest past 4 weeks in south Florida I can ever recall not one cool down yet and it's nov. 10th. Please send some cool air down this way! Highs have been near 90 non stop!


Same Austin - we in the Fla Keys normally expect a cool front sometime in October - there has been nothing. Not easy to work in the yard.
Blob watch #17.


Quoting 170. Austin72893:

This has been the warmest past 4 weeks in south Florida I can ever recall not one cool down yet and it's nov. 10th. Please send some cool air down this way! Highs have been near 90 non stop!


Never remember a stretch this long of heat.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
CYCLONIC STORM MEGH (ARB05-2015)
8:30 AM IST November 10 2015
=============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh moved west northwestwards with a speed of 14 km/h during past six hours, weakened into a cyclonic storm and now lays centered over Gulf of Aden near13.1N 45.6E, about 70 km east northeast of Aden.

It would move west northwestwards and cross Yemen coast near 13.2N (northeast of Aden) at around 6:00 AM UTC, today and then weaken gradually.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T2.0/CI 3.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over the area between 12.5N to 14.5N and 46.0E to 48.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -80C. The cloud organization continues to show signs of weakening.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 994 hPa.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
DEPRESSION BOB03-2015
8:30 AM IST November 10 2015
=============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over northern Tamil Nadu moved slowly westwards with a speed of 7 km/h during past 6 hours , weakened into a depression, and now lays centered near 12.4N 79.3E, about 80 km east of Tiruppattur and 60 km south southeast of Vellore.

It would move westwards and weaken into a well marked low pressure area during next 12 hours.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lie over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south interior Karnataka, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Bay of Bengal over area between 10.0N to 16.0N and west of 84.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -70.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of sea along and off north Tamil Nadu coast and Puducherry coast is rough. The estimated central pressure of the depression is 1003 hPa.
Link
Something is going on in the SW Caribbean.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA BOB03-2015
11:30 AM IST November 10 2015
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over northern Tamil Nadu moved slowly westwards, weakened into a well marked low pressure area, and now lays over northern Tamil Nadu and neighborhood.

It would move westwards and weaken further during next 24 hours

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory on BOB03 from the India Meteorological Department
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER TC MEGH (ARB05-2015)
11:30 AM IST November 10 2015
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh moved west northwestwards with a speed of 5 km/h during past six hours, rapidly weakened into a deep depression, and now lays centered over Gulf of Aden near 13.1N 45.6E, about 70 km east northeast of Aden.

It would move northwestwards, weaken further and cross Yemen coast near 13.3N (northeast of Aden). Due to rapid weakening of the system, there is also possibility of the dissipation of the deep depression over Gulf of Aden close to Yemen coast.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T2.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lie over the area between 12.5 to 14.5 and 46.0 to 48.0. Minimum cloud top temperature is -60C. The cloud organization shows rapid weakening.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of sea around system center is very rough. The estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 1000 hPa.

Additional Information
=====================
The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 14.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation located to the northeast of the system center. It would steer the system north northwestwards. The low level relative vorticity is 50x10-5sec-1, convergence is 20x10-5sec-1 and upper level divergence is 10x10-5sec-1. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots around the system center. The system would weaken rapidly, due to lower ocean thermal energy over Gulf of Aden and interaction with land surface
Hard to believe it is almost the 74th anniversary. My boss at UH was a little boy when he and his family watched from the heights above Manoa. I used to have a retired guy swim at my tower every day. He was a civilian welder who worked at Pearl. He was off that Sunday morning but went down to help out. One day he told me the story. It is a good thing that they are identifying these remains. Many are young men from half a world away whose lives were cut short defending freedom.

Finally going to clear out in SC today. Should be a much needed good stretch of weather coming. We are saturated. Would still not take much to have a repeated flooding event. Lots of standing water in ditches and fields. Throw in El Nino and it should an interesting remainder of fall and winter.

Quoting 169. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Right on the Eve of Veterans Day.

Military identifies remains of 7 Pearl Harbor 'unknowns'
By AUDREY McAVOY,
Last Updated: Monday, November 09, 2015
HONOLULU --
(AP) The remains of seven crew members missing since the USS Oklahoma capsized in the 1941 bombing of Pearl Harbor have been identified, the military said Monday.

The names of the servicemen identified using dental records will be released after their families have been notified.

In June, the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency began digging up the remains of nearly 400 USS Oklahoma sailors and Marines from a veterans cemetery in Honolulu where they were buried as "unknowns."

Within five years, officials expect to identify about 80 percent of the Oklahoma crew members still considered missing.

The military says it started the project because advances in forensic science and technology are improving the ability to identify remains.

On Monday, officials exhumed the last four of 61 caskets containing unknown people from the Oklahoma. Many of the caskets include the remains of multiple individuals.

Families will have the option of receiving remains as they are identified, or waiting until the agency has more pieces of a body or even a complete skeleton. Navy casualty officers will let families know their options.

Altogether, 429 men on board the World War II battleship were killed. Only 35 were identified in the years immediately after.

Identification work will be conducted at agency laboratories in Hawaii and Nebraska. DNA analysis will be conducted at the Armed Forces DNA Identification Laboratory at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware.

More than 2,400 sailors, Marines and soldiers were killed in the attack on Pearl Harbor. The Oklahoma's casualties were second only to the USS Arizona, which lost 1,177 men.

-------

Salute to all the men and women who currently serve in the Navy, Army, Air Force, Marines, and Coast Guard, and all the veterans still alive or who have passed on from this life. God bless each and every one of you this week and thank you for your services.
around 1980 i moved and lived in hawaii for four yrs. we lived way up on a ridge overlooking waikiki & diamond head. our neighbor a long time kamahaina witnessed pearl harbor attack from the house. she said the planes were flying below shooting at anything. must of been scary times. not only from up above but she had to deal with many of her neighbors who were and still are of japanese decent.
blob 17 is interesting.
184. MahFL
The heavy rain we were supposed to get here in Orange Park yesterday never materialized.
Good morning. As a long time time S. Florida resident, and an Andrew victim, nothing brings more joy than to see fronts sweep those evil entities out to sea.

Way to far out but i would love this!
Quoting 184. MahFL:

The heavy rain we were supposed to get here in Orange Park yesterday never materialized.
Yeah, I've been working in Orlando since Sunday afternoon, and I've seen none of the widespread torrential rains one particular forum member repeatedly insisted we'd see--just a 15-second sprinkle shower in Baldwin Park last evening, All going to show that, again, WAGs based on overeager misinterpretations of expert data are still just WAGs.
Quoting 172. Grothar:

Blob watch #17.





I hope an autumn cold front will perform a blobectomy on this one.
How are you Gro?

Quoting 173. Grothar:



Never remember a stretch this long of heat.

I know I'm hoping that thanksgiving cold front will hold up but too far out to tell :(
Quoting 186. SFLWeatherman:

Way to far out but i would love this!



As long as it brings some mid-low 60's or lower to Cayman I will be happy

Anyway I see we got system #12 out TS Kate soon to be hurricane Kate

And I heard from some models of a possible system #13 possible TS Larry in the W Carib area as we get to the latter part of this month

If this is the case then we beat the forecast numbers

Overall TC 13
TS 12
Hurricane 4
Major Hurricane 2

If "Larry" was to happen and if "Larry" becomes a Hurricane then

Over"TC 13
TS 12
HURR 5
MAJ HURR 2 (3 if "Larry" becomes MAJ)

Anyway too early to say with any confidence if "Larry" will happen


Seasons Forecast

TS 11
HURR 3
MAJ HURR 2

I think this years forecasted ACE was 44 current ACE 57/58
Was it St Louis Heights? Above Palolo Valley? Million dollar view. You can look ewa toward Pearl from there. My old boss said at first all he could see was some smoke and then the booms would follow as it is about 15 miles as the crow flies. There wasn't much in between back then and the biggest structure I think was Aloha tower. Anyway he vividly remembered planes " dancing" around it. He said a couple flew over the house and he vividly remembers the red markings.

Perfect weather, perfect waves. Good times.

Quoting 182. islander101010:

around 1980 i moved and lived in hawaii for four yrs. we lived way up on a ridge overlooking waikiki & diamond head. our neighbor a long time kamahaina witnessed pearl harbor attack from the house. she said the planes were flying below shooting at anything. must of been scary times. not only from up above but she had to deal with many of her neighbors who were and still are of japanese decent.
Quoting 186. SFLWeatherman:

Way to far out but i would love this!


Woah. That would be upper 30s in Orlando, which would be unusual though not unprecedented for late November. I highly doubt we will see lows that chilly here until December.
humid but not a drop of rain. haole i use to live on Wilhelmina rise just above kaimuki.
194. MahFL
Quoting 192. HurrMichaelOrl:


Woah. That would be upper 30s in Orlando, which would be unusual though not unprecedented for late November. I highly doubt we will see lows that chilly here until December.


Last year I never saw 32F here in Orange Park. We had a few frosts but the air temp was always above 32.
Looks like Kate is making that run to Hurricane looks speedy too

New RECON flight

Last year was the only year in about 5 years that i did not get to 32 we got to 34 last year in Loxahatchee,FL
Quoting 194. MahFL:



Last year I never saw 32F here in Orange Park. We had a few frosts but the air temp was always above 32.
Hello boys and girls. Another hot, humid South Florida day. Hope everyone is fine.

Blob #17



Blob (unknown EPAC) This one has potential. I'm not sure of the SST's in the Pacific, since not much has been mentioned this season.





its been incredibly hot this November
vis. is more impressive blob 17
Sad day for New Orleans and music lovers everywhere.

RIP Allen Tousaint

Allen Toussaint was an American musician, songwriter/composer, record producer, and influential figure in New Orleans R&B. Wikipedia
Born: January 14, 1938 (age 77), Gert Town, New Orleans, LA
Died: November 9, 2015
Quoting 198. 19N81W:

its been incredibly hot this November


Just about everyday this month @ my location we have hit 90 or higher. Max high from this heat wave was 93 last week.
203. MahFL
Quoting 202. StormTrackerScott:



Just about everyday this month @ my location we have hit 90 or higher. Max high from this heat wave was 93 last week.


I don't think 93 in Orlando is a heatwave.
Quoting 196. SFLWeatherman:

Last year was the only year in about 5 years that i did not get to 32 we got to 34 last year in Loxahatchee,FL


We bottomed out around 31F here in Winter Park this past winter. The Orlando metro seems to average about 33F for the yearly minimum these days.
Quoting 202. StormTrackerScott:



Just about everyday this month @ my location we have hit 90 or higher. Max high from this heat wave was 93 last week.

Coming to an end today, bro. Welcome to central Florida, autumn!
Quoting 203. MahFL:



I don't think 93 in Orlando is a heatwave.


The "heat wave" is coming to an end. But Orlando International Airport has had 6 days this month at or above 90 degrees (which are near or above record values) and about 10 degrees above normal.
Houston




Keep dreaming Florida
NWS says: it's been very warm in Orlando this month. In fact, the temps so far are running nearly 10 degrees above normal--and there's nothing normal about that:


Quoting 202. StormTrackerScott:



Just about everyday this month @ my location we have hit 90 or higher. Max high from this heat wave was 93 last week.
I'm so tired of this heat.... give me a cold front!!!!
Quoting 173. Grothar:



Never remember a stretch this long of heat.
If it were the middle of July and under the same circustances would it have been a lot hotter than usual for that time of year or just the usual heat you could expect?
Quoting 187. Neapolitan:

Yeah, I've been working in Orlando since Sunday afternoon, and I've seen none of the widespread torrential rains one particular forum member repeatedly insisted we'd see--just a 15-second sprinkle shower in Baldwin Park last evening, All going to show that, again, WAGs based on overeager misinterpretations of expert data are still just WAGs.


You mean that 2-4"? Got some nice rains along the west coast. Most of us got between .3" and 1".
.KATE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...
10:00 AM EST Tue Nov 10
Location: 30.2°N 74.7°W
Moving: NE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph





GFS spins up another hurricane in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico.
Atlantic

Caribbean
Quoting 212. Bucsboltsfan:



You mean that 2-4"? Got some nice rains along the west coast. Most of us got between .3" and 1".
Yeah, I know the Tampa/Sarasota region saw a nice amount. But there was much talk of widespread 2'-4" or more rainfall across wide swaths of Central and Northern Florida.

That didn't happen.
Quoting 102. ColoradoBob1:


This is from those dam failures in Brazil this week , this is price of our modern world.


That is absolutely heartbreaking... I know that I probably shouldn't say this, but I feel more sympathy for the "innocent" victims of man made catastrophes than for the humans that cause them.
Quoting 212. Bucsboltsfan:



You mean that 2-4"? Got some nice rains along the west coast. Most of us got between .3" and 1".


0.75" for me between yesterday and this morning in NW Tampa.
I agree........and it has a dam harness on
did the animal make it

Quoting 217. Loduck:

That is absolutely heartbreaking... I know that I probably shouldn't say this, but I feel more sympathy for the "innocent" victims of man made catastrophes than for the humans that cause them.
tons of weather to the south of us likely to miss us.....thats been the story all year its all south around the monsoon trough very little has been able to detach itself and drift northward and the cold fronts havent started reaching us yet to help pull it north. Lets just blame it on that a hole el nino.....does anyone gain from el nino?
News in the South America:

- The National Meteorological Service of Argentina, said on its official twitter (SMN_Argentina) that the city of Mercedes in Corrientes province recorded 215 mm of rainfall in the last 24 hours! It is the largest volume of rain in the city since the record which was established in April 11, 1998 (During the last Super El Niño) when it rained 276 mm.

- The Severe Thunderstorm returned to the Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil today. Winds of nearly 90 mph recorded today in Bagé, border with Uruguay. Some cities reported nearly 100 mm in less than 12 hours today. In São Borja (border with Argentina) a tornado could be striked today before the dawn, but we'll wait the confirmation, can be just a microburst.

Image source: Metsul Meteorologia

Quoting 222. pablosyn:


Pablo, are the reservoirs in São Paulo doing any better after all the rain?
Quoting 222. pablosyn:

News in the South America:

- The National Meteorological Service of Argentina, said on its official twitter (SMN_Argentina) that the city of Mercedes in Corrientes province recorded 215 mm of rainfall in the last 24 hours! It is the largest volume of rain in the city since the record which was established in April 11, 1998 (During the last Super El Nio) when it rained 276 mm.

- The Severe Thunderstorm returned to the Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil today. Winds of nearly 90 mph recorded today in Bag, border with Uruguay. Some cities reported nearly 100 mm in less than 12 hours today. In So Borja (border with Argentina) a tornado could be striked today before the dawn, but we'll wait the confirmation, can be just a microburst.

Image source: Metsul Meteorologia


I'd lean towards the microburst from past experience with grain bins and tornadoes in C IL. Saw this morning they've put us in TorCon 4, and looks like yesterday's map had the enhanced risk too far S. Looks like between I-72 & I-74 may be worst spot & we'll be on S edge, not the northern. Looks like a thin quick passing line, but won't be in our area until after sunset, so will be keeping an eye on radar intently.

High has passed to E, still very light winds, but now S-SW instead of yesterday's N-NE, press still around 30.15", dew pt still in mid 30s. Mid 50s on way to low 60s. As note to those in FL w/ high temps, the frost I saw yesterday in more open areas still did not reach sensitive plants in more protected areas, still hanging in on Nov 10th! If we're staying this warm in Nov., not surprised you haven't cooled off yet. Does look like the killer frost/freeze coming Sat morning though, upper 20s forecast.

Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT42 KNHC 101451
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has
continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based
on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the
latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb.
Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature,
with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation,
consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over
the cyclone.

Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of
the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during
the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures
aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the
guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows
Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to
over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours
and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The
official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5
days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of
035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is
forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward
speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an
upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a
faster northwestward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of
the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update
of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track
through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 30.2N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Cwg is predicting below normal snowfall and a mild winter.I can see this happening more so than a cold and snowy winter.
Quoting 209. Camerooski:

I'm so tired of this heat.... give me a cold front!!!!

Amen Camerooskiii to that. I'm going to see the parents in Connecticut in early December to escape the heat. I hope to catch a major Nor'easter!!
To all United States Marines Globally,

A Happy 240th Birthday Greeting.

November 10, 1775-November 10, 2015










Semper Fidelis
According to the NHC it is a good thing that Kate did not slow down and meander like Joaquin did or else the Bahamas would have had another serious cane on their hands.Despite her fast movement she is still finding room to intensify.
NEW NATIONAL RECORDS FOR HOTTEST NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE & WARMEST NOVEMBER NIGHT ANYWHERE IN THE UK: The record all-time warmest overnight minimum temperature anywhere in the UK during any November of 16.1 C / 61.0 F was set at Murlough, Northern Ireland on the night of November 9-10, 2015. The record all-time hottest temperature anywhere in the UK during any November of 22.3 C / 72.1 F was set at Trawsgoed, Wales on November 1, 2015.

Link (warmest November night)

Link (bottest November temperature)
Another Cane coming

I think your chances are good anytime from now going forward if you forcast warmer anytime of the year you will win.

Quoting 227. washingtonian115:

Cwg is predicting below normal snowfall and a mild winter.I can see this happening more so than a cold and snowy winter.
Strongest Hurricane recorded, captured it on WU app on phone.

Classic

Quoting 203. MahFL:



I don't think 93 in Orlando is a heatwave.


It is in November!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good Morning. Nice to see Kate moving away from the US. While currently in the clear, still awaiting the updates from SPC on the potential for severe weather in the mid-west tomorrow as the jet/low continues to inch forward from the West:





238. vis0
vis0's zilly headline LINKs are REAL::

Pluto not a planet...moons?-maybe a juggler?-Grothar practicing the 5 ball pool tricks AGAIN?

Don't "sumome" just read each of the 3 links, its good exercise for the brain and removes that unneeded weight and/or adds the needed weight from the brain.

"Gain/loss weight AT THE SAME TIME"??? -washi115 (not a paid actor)

Yes for only 9minutes & 99seconds YES 9mins & 99Secs (or 10 mins & 39secs when converted to common sense currency) if brain is unbalanced as being too selfish or too selfless reading newly discovered info can help one balance that brain. If you think ":its all about only you" then you remove some of that ego by seeing there's much more to this universe than you ...BUT ALSO if your not confident enough to give yourself credit then reading articles that add to your brains knowledge bank means you can feel good 'bout yourself cause YOU made a choice to move forward by learning.

ACT NOW (Patrrap stop putting on next years "graceful guise" for Madri Gras, it not that type of ACTing). (There a Madri Gra group title, "Guise & Dolls")

Act Now and receive a healthier brain faster than FedEx or UPS can "drop" your 50'' tv on your doorstep.

batteries included...batteries??? its your healthy diet adding clean energy to your circulatory/'pumping engine.

On another front "Great Pyramid scan reveals mysterious thermal anomaly" ...gee i hope that's not my Aunt Josephina whom went to Giza and became lost...luckly she does carry enuff muchables in her purse to last forever.

if you dislike my science stuff go to the next comment skip my next words, as i am SELF TOOTING::
Hmm interesting findings just like i left CLUEs to this in 1999 at an ABOUT.com WxBabes blog as to limestone and its "amplificative" use to heat energies via an ultimate_pi user name, i think all free blogs where ended in 2000, only my "espyhther" comments are left cause those i posted outside my blog on comments at about/sci. (ABOUT.com had free blogging for Puerto Rico then) Limestone, why i warned the creators of stealth planes after watching a CBS 60mins report on them ~ 1980s???, not to fly near concentrations of limestone it can reveal jets "fingerprint" but i'm a nut.

This heating does not mean its not a natural process. Its that this structure was built and sections placed in that manner to help follow a direction for more clues. Now can someone pass on to study the 7 crystals under the "cool cat" aka sphinx & Giza Pyramid begun ~15,878BC (NOT FACT for now so don't write this year in your school reports kiddies). No sar2401 i'm not calling calling a pharo a "cool cat" (sqipiity dibbity pibpity wahjhhhh, maaaaaaaaan ...thats jargon only guys from the 60s understand, ...sar2401 replies by snapping fingers repeatedly) Those 7 crystals under the Sphinx links to more hidden clues◦◦◦◦... .

(quick read why i had to hide the ml-d for one day on my zilly blog pg4 cmmnt#189. Will append to THAT comment on my zilly blog later as am still running tests on the permanent ml-d to make sure i can power down the portable ml-d soon.) MY WORDS NOT WxU's :: please stay tuned to local watches & warnings as some weather under the ml-d AOI might power up by 2 times of whats expected.

NOW BACK TO OBSERVING WEATHER KATE and worldwide