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Karl near hurricane strength; Igor intensifying again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:00 PM GMT on September 16, 2010

Tropical Storm Karl is back over water after popping off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early this morning. Despite being a small storm, Karl managed to keep a remarkable degree of organization during its crossing of the Yucatan. Karl has already regained all of its lost strength, and is near hurricane intensity. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently in Karl, and at 8:47am EDT found winds at 5,000 feet of 85 mph, which suggest winds near 65 - 70 mph were occurring at the surface. The aircraft noted that Karl had built an eyewall that was open on the north-northeast side. The eye is now apparent in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are approaching the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches can be expected today along much of Mexico's Bay of Campeche coast.


Figure 1. Image from NASA's Terra satellite taken at 12:40pm EDT Wednesday September 15, 2010 of Tropical Storm Karl over the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday morning. NHC is giving Karl a 7% chance of reaching Category 3 strength, but the recent data from the Hurricane Hunters suggest that these odds are higher, perhaps 30%. The 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model makes Karl a strong Category 2 hurricane with 105 - 110 mph winds at landfall Friday, and this is a reasonable forecast. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.


Figure 2. Forecast swath of maximum winds from Karl, as predicted by the GFDL model on its 2am EDT (6Z) run this morning. The GFDL is predicting a 50-mile wide stretch of the Mexican coast will receive Category 1 (yellow colors, 64+ knots) or Category 2 (orange colors, 83+ knots) winds. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Hurricane Igor completed an eyewall replacement cycle early this morning, and has been intensifying. Igor is headed west-northwest to northwest at 7 mph, and this motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 52 mph, gusting to 65, with a significant wave height of 32 feet (the significant wave height is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves.) The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Igor this afternoon, and we will see then exactly how strong Igor is. Satellite imagery shows that Igor looks a bit ragged on its north side, but the northern eyewall is getting stronger, and the eye is clearing out and contracting--signs of strengthening.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Igor.

Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, and is expected to remain in this range through Saturday morning. Waters are warm, 29°C, and will remain 29°C through Saturday morning. Igor is well armored against any intrusions of dry air for at least the next two days. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status through Saturday afternoon. It is possible the hurricane will undergo another eyewall replacement cycle on Friday or Saturday, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph if it occurs, but Igor may regain its lost intensity once the cycle is over, as it has done after the two eyewall replacement cycles it has already undergone. By Saturday morning, 36 hours before the core of Igor is expected to pass Bermuda's latitude, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, potentially weakening Igor. The SHIPS models predicts shear will not rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, until after the hurricane reaches the island. Igor will also be tracking over cooler 28°C waters during this period, and substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph can be expected about the time Igor arrives at Bermuda. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday night, and perhaps a Category 3 storm. NHC is giving Bermuda a 21% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds from Igor, but this probability is likely too low. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 or 2 hurricane conditions for the island on Sunday, with 20 - 30 foot waves in the offshore waters.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor is moving west-northwest, in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic. This trough will steer Igor to the northwest and north over the next three days, bringing the core of the storm very close to Bermuda late Sunday night. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 270 miles to the north of its center. As the hurricane moves north, it will expand in size, as it takes advantage of the extra spin available at higher latitudes due to Earth's rotation. By Saturday night, Igor's tropical storm force winds are expected to extend outwards 310 miles from the center. Igor will be moving at about 11 - 13 mph during the final 24 hours of its approach to Bermuda, so that island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near midnight Saturday night--a full 24 hours before the core of Igor arrives. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes Bermuda near midnight Sunday night. Hurricane force winds will probably extend out about 60 miles from the center then, and the island can expect to be pounded by hurricane force winds for up to 6 - 8 hours if the core of the hurricane tracks over the island. In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long-duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda.

Igor's impact on the rest of the Atlantic
The models have been in substantial agreement over multiple runs that Igor will miss the U.S. and Canadian coasts--with the possible exception of southeast Newfoundland, which the ECMWF model predicts could see a close pass by Igor. The chief danger to the U.S. and Canada will come in the form of high waves. Large swells from Igor have arrived in the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico, and will spread westwards over the next few days. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 7 - 10 foot waves on Saturday, and 9 - 13 foot waves on Sunday.

Julia
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification yesterday morning to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm, but is now on a long steadily decline in intensity. The hurricane is currently over waters right at the lower limit for maintaining a hurricane, 26.5°C (80°F), and is undergoing high shear of 20 - 25 knots. While the shear will abate tonight and the water will warm some, Julia is headed towards some very hostile upper-level winds beginning on Friday. These strong winds, courtesy of the upper level outflow from Hurricane Igor, will bring 30 - 45 knots of wind shear to Julia Friday night through Sunday. The high shear should be enough to rapidly weaken Julia over the weekend. Julia is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS and NOGAPS models are suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a strong tropical disturbance form 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Kristina40:
Hello. Atmoaggie stated right here on the blog that he was flagging all comments that were not weather related so do you really need a conspiracy theory to figure out who is doing the flagging...sheesh. I give.

This.
Is.
A.
Tropical.
Weather.
Blog.

I'm only doing what the instructions at the bottom state. The previous lack of which led to a very ugly 2 days in the comments section. (I think admin is paying much more attention, ATM, than they were.)

Either it's tropical weather, or it's off topic. I'm afraid some of you may be lost...

Looking at the 12 UTC GFS, I *think* the source for that GoM cane is at the far right of this plot. Just coming off the ITCZ:
I wonder about this potential monster gulf storm. I know I probably sound silly but I can only wonder where this thing is going to wind up. Models seem split but it is not prudent for me to analyze models when it is too far out.

this potential system seems pretty darn close to Florida on the GFS run.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Weather buoy at Sacrafice Island MX...hope that isn't foreshadowing. Note the Extreme weather relatedness of this post! Link


Hey now, that is an important part of the coast. Probably going to take a direct hit as well.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Weather buoy at Sacrafice Island MX...hope that isn't foreshadowing. Note the Extreme weather relatedness of this post! Link
ROLFMAO. Don't think I'd like to be near Karl's eye when he comes ashore. The small one's can be vicious. Concentrated energy.
1011. will40
Quoting atmoaggie:

This.
Is.
A.
Tropical.
Weather.
Blog.

I'm only doing what the instructions at the bottom state. The previous lack of which led to a very ugly 2 days in the comments section. (I think admin is paying much more attention, ATM, than they were.)

Either it's tropical weather, or it's off topic. I'm afraid some of you may be lost...

Looking at the 12 UTC GFS, I *think* the source for that GoM cane is at the far right of this plot. Just coming off the ITCZ:




+100
1013. KYDan
Quoting pcola57:
Does anyone have a link for radar near mexican coastline where Karl is heading?
TIA


http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-alva.gif
1014. WxLogic
Quoting Cotillion:


Good to know the NOGAPS doesn't let me down...


Jeje... but remember there 2 lows with NOGAPS. One related to the Colombian low and one that is not which develops E of the Windard/Leeward Islands.
Have the hurricane hunters got to Igor while I was gone,if so,what intensity did they find?
Quoting angiest:

xcool believes he has identified the source of that future storm, at least the one GFS develops.  It does have a pouch associated with it and has good looking vorticity.


Did he post it? I'm trying to find the motion graphic of the NOGAPS model I saw and followed the moisture from...

Aha! Here it is... Pretty evident on here: Link
Just made another center pass

974.1 mb
(~ 28.77 inHg)

Flight level winds up a little.
83 knots
(~ 95.4 mph)
1020. hydrus
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Mobile. We could use a nice 10 year stretch around here without a cane.
I would imagine a break from natural disasters is downright welcome.....However, my optimism is limited because of the current models. I do not use the models religiously, but I do notice the major pattern shifts all the models have in common. They all look interesting to say the least.
1021. angiest

Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Did he post it? I'm trying to find the motion graphic of the NOGAPS model I saw and followed the moisture from...

Aha! Here it is... Pretty evident on here: Link
Yeah but it was a few hours ago.
Quoting NavarreMark:


Theres not much humor on that chart. Igor may give Bermuda a rough time.

May I think it's fairly certain Bermuda will get hammered
Quoting Cat5Hurricane250:
Just made another center pass

974.1 mb
(~ 28.77 inHg)

Flight level winds up a little.
83 knots
(~ 95.4 mph)


Depending on their flight level, that'd be around 85mph at surface level. Which is about 4.5 on the DT which was the estimations earlier.
1026. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

This.
Is.
A.
Tropical.
Weather.
Blog.

I'm only doing what the instructions at the bottom state. The previous lack of which led to a very ugly 2 days in the comments section. (I think admin is paying much more attention, ATM, than they were.)

Either it's tropical weather, or it's off topic. I'm afraid some of you may be lost...

Looking at the 12 UTC GFS, I *think* the source for that GoM cane is at the far right of this plot. Just coming off the ITCZ:


Atmo, does this mean we can't insult each other any more? It was the highlight of my day. What do you think of the development of a system in the Caribbean this week. My sources tell me I am right.
Quoting btwntx08:
omg alot of removed posts wow


Checking in from Bermuda. The blog is now like the book I was reading and I never could finish because my dog ate it. Can anyone give me any Igor updates please. I usually come here and get some insight, but not such much today.
Quoting NavarreMark:


Theres not much humor on that chart. Igor may give Bermuda a rough time.

yeah, not lookin good atm for the lil'island...30 ft. waves plus 36 hrs. of wind?we may have to ante up for portlight.

"In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long-duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda." Jeff Masters
1030. angiest
Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, not lookin good atm for the lil'island...30 ft. waves plus 36 hrs. of wind?we may have to ante up for portlight.

"In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long-duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda." Jeff Masters


Credit to GFS, which frequently showed Igor taking roughly 2 days to clear Bermuda.
Quoting hydrus:
I would imagine a break from natural disasters is downright welcome.....However, my optimism is limited because of the current models. I do not use the models religiously, but I do notice the major pattern shifts all the models have in common. They all look interesting to say the least.

So what is it that the models suggest is in store for the Gulf?
Looks like a timing thing now to find out if we again have two majors at once with Igor and Karl. Certainly having that condition occur twice in one season would have to be a first in recorded history.
1033. xcool
Date (UTC): 2010/09/16 13:10
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/16 13:37
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/16 13:48
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI46L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 10N 35W
Notes:

Staring very early with this one. There is a lot of uncertainty
at the start. Tracked at 700hPa ... perhaps I should have
tracked at a lower level.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: -5.4 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h, but very uncertain 0-36 hours. Initial OW max
moves eastward, then another moves southward from the north and
becomes the pouch that tracks westward.
GFS: Phase Speed: -1.5 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa


Track: 120h, but uncertain at 0-12 and 72-96 hours. The
uncertainty at the later period is most likely because the phase
speed is best at the beginning when the pouch is moving slowly
and not once it begins to move quickly westward at the end of
the forecast.
UKMET: Phase Speed: -3.1 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa


Track: 108h, but very uncertain 0-36 and 72-96 hours. The
uncertainty at the later period is most likely because the phase
speed is best at the beginning when the pouch is moving slowly
and not once it begins to move quickly westward at the end of
the forecast.
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -5.2 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h, but very uncertain 0-36 hours.
Quoting Cat5Hurricane250:
Just made another center pass

974.1 mb
(~ 28.77 inHg)

Flight level winds up a little.
83 knots
(~ 95.4 mph)

Wow, 26 mb drop in less than 20 hrs.
Quoting Inactivity:
Have the hurricane hunters got to Igor while I was gone,if so,what intensity did they find?


Yes, there was a dropsonde in the eyewall that showed an average of 107 kt over the lower 150 meters of the sounding.

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 85° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 107 knots (123 mph)


Google Earth recon link
Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, not lookin good atm for the lil'island...30 ft. waves plus 36 hrs. of wind?we may have to ante up for portlight.

"In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long-duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda." Jeff Masters


Scary. Just that time frame alone is frightening. I cannot imagine being effected by this animal for 36 hours. I just pray that they all have prepared as much as humanly possible for this bad-boy to head their way.
1038. cmahan
Quoting TDogg:
I've given this some thought. Since we've had all these majors this season, time to revise the names for the 2011 season. So, I give you:

(snip)


KRAKEN! See, this list rivals the WestPac typhoon names for awesomeness.
steering layer for karl
Quoting Goaskalice:


Checking in from Bermuda. The blog is now like the book I was reading and I never could finish because my dog ate it. Can anyone give me any Igor updates please. I usually come here and get some insight, but not such much today.

Alice read Dr. Masters' blog above.
And click on "Tropical & Hurricane" links above. That will give you the latest on Igor.
Not looking good for you right now.
This is a weather blog to quote you atmo, but we are a weather community. Not all days will be good, not everyone has to get along, it doesn't have to be non stop dry weather data, humor is good for all of us, sometimes we are going to pke fun at or taunt each other (I offer my self as a sacrificial lamb. Poke fun at me, I'm a grown manand can act as such). At the end of the day though we are still a community, each and everyone of us. I for one have had a grand appreciation for what the communityis as opposed to what it isn't.

All work and no play make Jack a dull boy.

Going to be real interesting to watch the models over the next few days and see how the Carib system continues to evolve.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Weather buoy at Sacrafice Island MX...hope that isn't foreshadowing. Note the Extreme weather relatedness of this post! Link
Hmmm, either they just turned it on, or it is one that doesn't run a lot...



Hopefully it will be running for the duration.
Quoting KimberlyB:


Scary. Just that time frame alone is frightening. I cannot imagine being effected by this animal for 36 hours. I just pray that they all have prepared as much as humanly possible for this bad-boy to head their way.


Igor could definitely live up to his name.
1045. Grothar
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Hurricane Pummel! People on this blog would talk about it for months before it even formed!


Seems as if some here have already been "pummeled". Maybe the blog will get back to normal. You have to see this image of Igor:

Quoting hydrus:
I would imagine a break from natural disasters is downright welcome.....However, my optimism is limited because of the current models. I do not use the models religiously, but I do notice the major pattern shifts all the models have in common. They all look interesting to say the least.


I just keep my fingers crossed. It's when all the models begin to agree that I take heart.
he's getting close to be using this one

Quoting TDogg:
I've given this some thought. Since we've had all these majors this season, time to revise the names for the 2011 season. So, I give you:

Anger
Ballistic
Crush
Demon
Eeeek!
Fury
Ginormous
Hades
Implacable
Jurassic
Kraken
Lethal
Maul
Nasty
Ominous
Pummel
Rage
Trample
Vicious
Wipeout


Ah.

Some of those would be good in the other way.

A Marco-esque Tropical Storm Ginormous?

Hurricane Lethal that stays well away from land (best type, after all)?

Tropical Storm Eeeek!, which actually is only a Bonnie impression.
Quoting SuperYooper:


You guys are real lifesavers, good work! Just one question...how are you bringing the truck over? jk I'm really hoping that ridge isn't weaker than it's starting to look. Good luck over there...you going?


Nope...I'll be here in Texas providing logistics support
Quoting Grothar:


Atmo, does this mean we can't insult each other any more? It was the highlight of my day. What do you think of the development of a system in the Caribbean this week. My sources tell me I am right.
For the next day, or so, yeah tropical or nothing.

And if that one in the Caribbean/GoM turns into a baddie, ehh, probably to leave the humor to WUmail.

As for the chances of that Caribbean system: At present, not seeing anything that says it couldn't happen.
1052. dmdhdms
Quoting vince1966:

So what is it that the models suggest is in store for the Gulf?


Look to the end of the run.


Link
1053. angiest
Quoting btwntx08:
steering layer for karl


He could come a little further north, but he really has shown no interest in it.
Quoting Grothar:


Seems as if some here have already been "pummeled". Maybe the blog will get back to normal. You have to see this image of Igor:

Wow..when my eyes look like that one I am usually very grouchy! Check out this animated wave graphic link for Bermuda (click play all on the right side.
1057. Ineluki
Quoting cmahan:


KRAKEN! See, this list rivals the WestPac typhoon names for awesomeness.


No way, man, that list had LIONROCK didn't it? You can't top a list with a storm named Lionrock!
This is a couple of hours old, but it looks like Karl is getting quite organized. I'd say that rapid intensification is quite a realistic possibility:





Julia is also looking pretty good as of fairly recently. I wouldn't be totally surprised to see a brief uptick in intensity before the adverse conditions overwhelm her.
1062. xcool


12z Euro shows gfs storm but weaker

by Puerto Rico


Thanks to whoever has been clearing the chaff out of the comments.

Can one of you more knowledgeable types give a layman's explanation as to how "pumping the ridge" and "eating the trough" works? This may be a day late or so, but I'm really struggling to wrap my head around those two terms. My google-fu is weak right now... A link or two would also suffice. TIA :)

Cheers~

p.s.: Looks like N.S. and Newfoundland better watch out mid-next week!
ECMWF
Anyone knows how to contact Dr. Masters? Seems if he knew what was going on with his blog, he would stop this madness.
The GFS and the CMC cotinue to show developmebt east of the WINDWARD islands, which will track west to the western caribbean.the area i suspect is the one at 10N 37W where there is some vorticity.it is forecast that there will be a pertabation from the itcz which will evolve into the formation of the next name storm lisa. before this could happen, Igor will have exit the area and limit it's influence of the developing cyclone as earl as tuesday week. i will continue to monitor the area as well as the tropical wave near 23W
Sixth anniversary of h cane IVAN .... I have one Ivan pine left in my yard, leaning at about 70 degrees... still growing as a reminder of the power of nature and that I should always evacuate. I am "wishcasting" NO storms for the Gulf Coast this year. We have already had our catastrophe with the oil. One catastrophe per year is enough.
1071. tacoman
weatherguy03 said that pumping the trof is a lot of nonsense there is no such thing....he said this the other morning...i definitley know what hes talking about and i agree...
Quoting NavarreMark:


Hopefully when the eye of Igor has passed Bermuda with only TS winds to the island, things will get back to normal.


the current forecast track and the track for the last few days have said that Bermuda will nearly have a direct impact. Unless something changes; only TS force winds are not likely

also do not forget about Karl and Mexico
1073. xcool

Quoting xcool:


12z Euro shows gfs storm but weaker
Quoting xcool:


12z Euro shows gfs storm but weaker

Yeah, but look what Igor and Julia spawn! That system is half the size of the US!
1076. xcool
THINGS COULD GET BUSY AGAIN IN THE LONG
RANGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 10N AND 40W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...NEED TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN A TC BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...AND PASSING THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THE GFS FORECAST A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE LOCAL BY
MID WEEK...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM...APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN BY
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW..IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY IF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP...AND WHICH TRACK WILL TAKE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


San Juan discussion.
Quoting tacoman:
weatherguy03 said that pumping the trof is a lot of nonsense there is no such thing....he said this the other morning...i definitley know what hes talking about and i agree...


Its called pumping the ridge, not the trof and there is such a thing.
Quoting Floodman:


Nope...I'll be here in Texas providing logistics support


FloodMan quick question here is southeast texas and a local met said we will be getting a good cold front here in about 9 days....these models are saying the 29th? Confused a little
Quoting Grothar:


Seems as if some here have already been "pummeled". Maybe the blog will get back to normal. You have to see this image of Igor:



Looks like a Category 5, but it's a 4.
Quoting BiloxiIsle:
Anyone knows how to contact Dr. Masters? Seems if he knew what was going on with his blog, he would stop this madness.
Already done and IP's of those flagging are being recorded. Admin is deciding what to do with said flaggers. Speaking of flags....they I'm sure are running up the TS flag at least in Bermuda. It sure would be nice if we could help those folks with any questions they might have right now.
1085. xcool


240hrs Euro
1086. tacoman 8:09 PM GMT on September 16, 2010

StormW has been talking about Igor pumping the ridge for days now, if he did say pumping the trof it was clearly a small mistake on his part in terms of wording

of course it does not shock me that you would not let him get away with that without a comment.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 941.1mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5



raw T # for Igor is back up too 6.5
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Already done and IP's of those flagging are being recorded. Admin is deciding what to do with said flaggers. Speaking of flags....they I'm sure are running up the TS flag at least in Bermuda. It sure would be nice if we could help those folks with any questions they might have right now.


Exactly. But I do wonder what "flags" you're talking about...did the people putting them up cause trouble? Anyhow looks like Bermuda'll be needing a whole shipment of them way this is looking.

Also, pun intended.


Well I am quiet sure that this will be minused to death also but here goes....I am concerned with the merger between IGOR and JULIA...has this happened in recent times?
Quoting dmdhdms:


Look to the end of the run.


Link


Eww. Not good.
xcool it seems we are seeing the development of the new storm Lisa. the scenario will be different with the pattern change
1097. hydrus
Quoting atmoaggie:
For the next day, or so, yeah tropical or nothing.

And if that one in the Caribbean/GoM turns into a baddie, ehh, probably to leave the humor to WUmail.

As for the chances of that Caribbean system: At present, not seeing anything that says it couldn't happen.
You just posted my post..I am looking at the situation with Karl very carefully..And so far I do not like what I am seeing.
1098. Ineluki
Quoting FLdewey:

As soon as he learns who is tying to take the site hostage I think we'll see some action.

Send a WU mail to: JeffMasters


Quoting this since it is likely to get disappeared. This place is getting ridiculous. Karl is ramping up and heading for another landfall, and Igor is forecast to head for Bermuda, and for the fourth straight day there's blog drama. Really shows where some people's heads are.
Quoting StormPro:
Well I am quiet sure that this will be minused to death also but here goes....I am concerned with the merger between IGOR and JULIA...has this happened in recent times?


Again assuming no pun (grrr), Igor's track is already confident enough and Julia weak enough that a fujiwara between the two wouldn't greatly impact either cyclone.
We're preparing to respond in Bermuda if need beLink
1102. bwi
Wild night in store at buoy 41044

If Igor wobbles a little west, the western eyewall could go over the buoy.

Conditions at 41044 as of
(4:50 pm ADT)
1950 GMT on 09/16/2010: Unit of Measure: English Metric Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 56.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 69.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 37.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.30 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 82.6 °F
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Already done and IP's of those flagging are being recorded. Admin is deciding what to do with said flaggers. Speaking of flags....they I'm sure are running up the TS flag at least in Bermuda. It sure would be nice if we could help those folks with any questions they might have right now.

I hope so. My fear is that they will just shut down the site, but maybe that is what some are hoping for. Anyway, to keep it tropic related, I hope the northern Gulf remains storm free, but some of the models looks like trouble.
Quoting Portlight:
We're preparing to respond in Bermuda if need beLink
Keep up the good work.
You've always had my respect and support...and money to help as I can.
1108. xcool
stoormfury pattern change going west now..
Quoting Portlight:
We're preparing to respond in Bermuda if need beLink


Hopefully Igor misses it completely and you won't have to.

But, keep up the good work, guys!
Quoting TerraNova:


Again assuming no pun (grrr), Igor's track is already confident enough and Julia weak enough that a fujiwara between the two wouldn't greatly impact either cyclone.

You assumed correct...it was completly innocent. But I am LOL'in it now
So this type of merger isnt typical is it? It looks like Julia is going to run right into Igor...I wonder what kind of dynamics that would cause with steering
Quoting Portlight:
We're preparing to respond in Bermuda if need beLink

You folks are fabulous! Thank you thank you thank you for the work you are doing!!!
1112. angiest
A gem from the Houston forecast discussion:

Fortunately for the Gulf
Coast areas it looks like Igor and Julia will remain well out in
the Atlantic. Will keep a close eye on tropics nonetheless as it
is that time of year. Mb
Bermuda Maritime Operations Centre
Link
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow

What happened in here today?

Everyone's getting removed.


I don't know...I was hoping you or somebody else could fill me on.

Please, if anybody sees this message before it gets removed by a fiery fist of rage, I'd really like to know what happened. PM me.

Thanks.

Also, here's a pitiful picture of Julia to match the mood.

Bermuda Sun newspaperLink
1117. Michfan
Screw it Atmo we might as well flag 24/7 from here on out because you know once the global warming crap comes up again then its all downhill from there. Tropics or nothing.

Igor is putting on an impressive show but i'm very worried about Bermuda with this system. Its a slow mover which means alot of wind for a very long time.

Quoting BiloxiIsle:

I hope so. My fear is that they will just shut down the site, but maybe that is what some are hoping for. Anyway, to keep it tropic related, I hope the northern Gulf remains storm free, but some of the models looks like trouble.
Maybe it will stop all the bull crap posting. It could finally get back to weather. this is what the blog is about weather. Not who u like or who u don't. In the last few days there's been alot of non essential talk on here. I was amazed at all the post that u couldn't read because of community standards. But I take my hat off to them because it must not of been weather related.
Does anyone think anything will be getting in the GOM? Or will that High keep protecting us?
sheri
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow

What happened in here today?

Everyone's getting removed.


I may be in error, however I think what is being removed is mostly either post that are personal or totally non-weather related such as the ongoing soap opera. I am fairly certain is someone wants to start their own blog or chat and talk about any of these subjects they would not be censored. I think admin is just trying to get a bunch of the non-weather elated junk off this blog when there are three active storms going on.
Afternoon again all, in case anyone missed my update earlier..
Karl a Hurricane, Igor, Julia unwinding 9/16/10
Quoting intunewindchime:
Sixth anniversary of h cane IVAN .... I have one Ivan pine left in my yard, leaning at about 70 degrees... still growing as a reminder of the power of nature and that I should always evacuate. I am "wishcasting" NO storms for the Gulf Coast this year. We have already had our catastrophe with the oil. One catastrophe per year is enough.
What was your location during Ivan?
I dont know which posts are getting removed, but I do notice that the blog is better focused and is more like digging through the gems to find the garbage as opposed to vice versa before ... Some good posters in the past fell into that trap in the past few days and honestly I just lost interest with the constant jokes about some maps looking like .. other things ... Once was funny but after a while Im just losing interest ...


GFS is very consistent on developing a gulf storm and as some have stated it has had surprising accuracy. Something to keep an eye on from brownsville to points eastward ..
Well organized, very tight circulation with spiral banding on all quadrants.
Quoting TxLonghorn:


FloodMan quick question here is southeast texas and a local met said we will be getting a good cold front here in about 9 days....these models are saying the 29th? Confused a little


I know you asked Floodman, but I know living here on the SETX coast that our first "cold" front signals the end of cane season for us.
This is GENERALLY around September 24th or around that date. We have rarely been hit
by a cane after this "golden" date.
So, if this "cold front" is expected around
the time you say, we can be done with cane season....we hope. Hope this helps.
Julia definitely wants to do a tango with Igor and she is putting on her best dress this should be better than dancing with the stars. Stay tuned.
1127. RyanFSU
Based upon a pretty quick analysis: today September 16 has a chance for the most ACE in a day, since 1900. We are at 10.00 through 12z with another set of 18z obs to be added... Yesterday was 10.55.

Here's the list (ACE on days in which at least one-100 knot hurricane occurs -- obviously could be several storms)...

Quoting TerraNova:


I don't know...I was hoping you or somebody else could fill me on.

Please, if anybody sees this message before it gets removed by a fiery fist of rage, I'd really like to know what happened. PM me.

Thanks.

Also, here's a pitiful picture of Julia to match the mood.

Every thing was fine...no bickering the usual great weather graphics and verbal banter here and there and then certain people started getting posts removed and then when other people mentioned these innocuous posts being removed WE were removed. And Karl is rapidly strengthening in the BOC and has a good chance of being a cat 3 at landfall...IMHO!
gulf states get ready for a katrina like storm possible from texas to florida. i got a real bad feeling that storm will be really bad when it develops.
1130. hcubed
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Already done and IP's of those flagging are being recorded. Admin is deciding what to do with said flaggers. Speaking of flags....they I'm sure are running up the TS flag at least in Bermuda. It sure would be nice if we could help those folks with any questions they might have right now.


Kinda hard to burn someone for flagging:

"...Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged..."

I think we could really help the people of Bermuda by replacing a recently departed featured blogger.

I nominate tacoman...

BTW, I'm really keeping an eye on Karl's future track. Several storms have continued to intensify over land, and cause widespread damage far inland.

Karl may pull another Hermine. It DID manage to get into the BOC without much loss of strength over land.
1131. Grothar
Karl causing a lot of bad weather in the entire Gulf. The big picuture!!



Pretty impressive:

Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Every thing was fine...no bickering the usual great weather graphics and verbal banter here and there and then certain people started getting posts removed and then when other people mentioned these innocuous posts being removed WE were removed. And Karl is rapidly strengthening in the BOC and has a good chance of being a cat 3 at landfall...IMHO!

I don't get it....I am lumped in with FLdewey and DJ...not bad company. Anyway back to my WEATHER question...what will the merger due in the case of steering currents for Igor?

(I have had something weather related in each of my removed posts btw)
Quoting EmmyRose:


I know you asked Floodman, but I know living here on the SETX coast that our first "cold" front signals the end of cane season for us.
This is GENERALLY around September 24th or around that date. We have rarely been hit
by a cane after this "golden" date.
So, if this "cold front" is expected around
the time you say, we can be done with cane season....we hope. Hope this helps.


Hope the local met is right
1137. Michfan
Once again Igor shows that the size of these storms is an amazing sight. The core of him takes up almost 5 degress of longitude and latitude.

Quoting pilotguy1:


I may be in error, however I think what is being removed is mostly either post that are personal or totally non-weather related such as the ongoing soap opera. I am fairly certain is someone wants to start their own blog or chat and talk about any of these subjects they would not be censored. I think admin is just trying to get a bunch of the non-weather elated junk off this blog when there are three active storms going on.
Well thats good to hear.

Thanks for the info.
Hott 107.5 Bermuda radio stationLink
Quoting TxLonghorn:


Hope the local met is right


Yes sounds right on target with the date of the
29th....we've been dang lucky this year
and I"m hoping we race to the 24th.....
w/no cane hit this year. Sorry to disappoint
the wishcasters.....

Prayers UP for Bermuda and Mexico!!!!
1141. hydrus
And once again Igor pulling together for another shot at the title.
1142. xcool


Well, this sucker is trying to re-intensify yet again.

Double nested greys on the Dvorak imagery is pretty amazing...
1144. unf97
Quoting TerraNova:


Exactly. But I do wonder what "flags" you're talking about...did the people putting them up cause trouble? Anyhow looks like Bermuda'll be needing a whole shipment of them way this is looking.

Also, pun intended.




One huge worry that I see from this latest run is that notice how Igor is not moving out to sea away from Bermuda the picture rapidly. Even as late as Sunday evening, Igor is still lashing the island.

Praying that Bermuda somehow can escape the worst of this monster's fury! But, definitely I am fearing the worst for those on that island in the next 3 days.
1145. tkeith
Quoting Michfan:
Once again Igor shows that the size of these storms is an amazing sight. The core of him takes up almost 5 degress of longitude and latitude.
This thing needs to turn and go east of Bermuda.
To use another Karl's words, this storm is "nutty"!
ASCAT shows an elongated area of low pressure near 10N 37W
1152. angiest
Quoting EmmyRose:


Yes sounds right on target with the date of the
29th....we've been dang lucky this year
and I"m hoping we race to the 24th.....
w/no cane hit this year. Sorry to disappoint
the wishcasters.....

Prayers UP for Bermuda and Mexico!!!!


Well, there is a first time for everything. I wouldn't place all my hopes on that. *If* the storm forms (which seems likely) don't ignore it..
1154. SLU
Answer the following question correctly and win a trip for two to a Caribbean destination of your choice:

How many times in recorded history have there been 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin?

Gotta get this off my chest:

I think it is safe to say that everyone who visits this blog benefits in some way - whether through education or entertainment. The blog is far from perfect but, overall, I'd say it has been pretty beneficial to us all.

So it kind of baffles me that some would use this site to try to recruit members to another site they are creating. That is in extremely poor taste in my opinion.

We all have the ability to create our own blogs on WUnderground. Why leave completely when you could simply relocate on the same site, OR better yet, strive to improve this blog??

That strikes me as a great show of disrespect to Dr. Masters. Maybe this is addition by subtraction. Who knows?
How many Karls would fit into Igor, at a guess?
Quoting SLU:
Answer the following question correctly and win a trip for two to a Caribbean destination of your choice:

How many times in recorded history have there been 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin?



8
Quoting angiest:


Well, there is a first time for everything. I wouldn't place all my hopes on that. *If* the storm forms (which seems likely) don't ignore it..


I chose to follow the patterns that
have been consistant and IF a storm
forms doesn't necessarily mean "Texas"
However, one must always be vigilant
and prepared all year long.
Quoting xcool:




I think I see Lisa in the making at 10N 40W.

Hopefully most of these iditotc post's get removed soon and the people who post them are banned.

Heck, maybe one day we might actually be able to discuss weather again.

In other news, Igor is the 10th largest Hurricane.




1165. SLU
Quoting Cotillion:


8


close but not close enough
1166. Drakoen
Quoting SLU:
Answer the following question correctly and win a trip for two to a Caribbean destination of your choice:

How many times in recorded history have there been 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin?



I know in 2005 there was at least 1 occassion where that occurred, and I believe in 1969 as well
1173. barbamz
Quoting Portlight:
Bermuda Maritime Operations Centre
Link


Hang on, portlight! Good job.
Highly recommended: Google Earth flight over Bermuda. I have been virtually on vacation there last night and I've learned a lot about structure und nature of these amazing islands.
Hope, Igor won't be too wild!!
BTW: Side effect for me to stay in this blog is gaining some new vocabulary (I'm German). New findings today: "maul" (from TDoggs exhilarant list of future hurricane names). Another one: "mutiny". I hope the blog will find back to relaxation. Barbara
Quoting angiest:


Well, there is a first time for everything. I wouldn't place all my hopes on that. *If* the storm forms (which seems likely) don't ignore it..


Listen, I will and did give it a rest. I had no beef with Storm. In fact, I did enjoy reading his stuff. But when I post about weather and get it removed, I take offense. Everyone needs a sense of humor. Including Dewey. Did you go to a peanut free school?
afternoon all.....oy vey....

anywho, I keep hearing talk about the GOM/Caribbean system....what sort of time frame are we talking about??? Is this being generated from models? or is something already developing?
1176. xcool
Jeff9641 yeahLisa ;)) aka Pouch PGI46L
Quoting SLU:


close but not close enough


Oh, not seasons?

11.
Quoting SLU:
Answer the following question correctly and win a trip for two to a Caribbean destination of your choice:

How many times in recorded history have there been 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin?



7
1180. SLU
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I know in 2005 there was at least 1 occassion where that occurred, and I believe in 1969 as well


and several times before that too ...
In case no one has been paying attention, our bride to be ... Julia, has rolled over to a due west motion. It's not a wobble. She's headed straight for her husband to be.

Who wants to be best man, and the maid of honor?
Cross post with Drakoen deleted...
1184. xcool
Karl cat 1 jmo
1185. angiest
Quoting EmmyRose:


I chose to follow the patterns that
have been consistant and IF a storm
forms doesn't necessarily mean "Texas"
However, one must always be vigilant
and prepared all year long.


That's all I'm stating. Kinda like the people who said Ike wouldn't come here because he was so far north in the Atlantic....
1186. SLU
Quoting Cotillion:


Oh, not seasons?

11.


11 is acceptable but i'm actually looking for the number of seasons.

Quoting PSUweathermet:


7


try again
Quoting angiest:
A gem from the Houston forecast discussion:

Fortunately for the Gulf
Coast areas it looks like Igor and Julia will remain well out in
the Atlantic. Will keep a close eye on tropics nonetheless as it
is that time of year. Mb


Hey y'all. This was from Houston yesterday...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A VISITOR IN THE CARIBBEAN ON
DAY 10 (SAT 25TH). ECMWF & GFS SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT TIME (ECMWF A DESERT SW RIDGE & ERN
TROF...GFS AN ERN RIDGE AND WRN TROF).

Haven't looked at all the 12z models today but the 0z's looked to still be calling for this development. Hopefully they will come together on the steering currents before anything does form. Or maybe they have since I've looked?
Ike came before the 24th LOL
But I do know what you are saying.....

Quoting Neapolitan:
A classic image (and just minutes old):

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
the eye wants to pop out
Quoting SLU:


11 is acceptable but i'm actually looking for the number of seasons.



try again


Well, if you include this one, 9.
1192. tkeith
Quoting presslord:
tkeith...I hope you have the kinda day this Saturday that I had last Saturday...focus on my avatar...
It's always tough between the hedges...I dont care what jersey you wear. Dawgs gonna be tough to beat at home.

Press, Portlight has gone from re-acting to disaters to being prepared and proactive, knowing it's not if but when.

It's amazing!!
1194. xcool
:)
Quoting Neapolitan:
A classic image (and just minutes old):

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image


Wow... that was QUICK.
1196. angiest
Quoting hurricanehanna:
afternoon all.....oy vey....

anywho, I keep hearing talk about the GOM/Caribbean system....what sort of time frame are we talking about??? Is this being generated from models? or is something already developing?


GFS has been developing a storm in the Caribbean on almost every run for nearly a week. Most of those runs have been into the Gulf (not all, however), and the strengths have varied. The timeframe is within the next 1-2 weeks, very roughly. It sounds like other models have started to catch on to this.
Quoting SLU:


11 is acceptable but i'm actually looking for the number of seasons.



try again


10 seasons
Quoting bigwes6844:
gulf states get ready for a katrina like storm possible from texas to florida. i got a real bad feeling that storm will be really bad when it develops.
You said "feeling", what leads you to this feeling ?
1200. angiest
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey y'all. This was from Houston yesterday...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A VISITOR IN THE CARIBBEAN ON
DAY 10 (SAT 25TH). ECMWF & GFS SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT TIME (ECMWF A DESERT SW RIDGE & ERN
TROF...GFS AN ERN RIDGE AND WRN TROF).

Haven't looked at all the 12z models today but the 0z's looked to still be calling for this development. Hopefully they will come together on the steering currents before anything does form. Or maybe they have since I've looked?


GFS continues to develop a Caribbean/Gulf system.
Quoting SLU:
Answer the following question correctly and win a trip for two to a Caribbean destination of your choice:

How many times in recorded history have there been 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin?



11.

And they were:
August 17, 1893 0Z - August 24, 1893 12Z

September 12, 1926 12Z - September 14, 1926 0Z

August 31, 1950 0Z - August 31, 1950 6Z

September 2, 1950 12Z - September 4, 1950 18Z

September 7, 1961 0Z - September 12, 1961 6Z

September 10, 1967 6Z - September 11, 1967 0Z

September 12, 1967 0Z - September 12, 1967 6Z

September 14, 1967 12Z - September 16, 1967 6Z

September 8, 1980 6Z - September 8, 1980 18Z

August 30, 1995 18Z - August 31, 1995 12Z

September 23, 1998 18Z - September 27, 1998 18Z

(I posted this a couple of hours ago)
Quoting PSUweathermet:


give it a rest...
Quoting SuperYooper:


Listen, I will and did give it a rest. I had no beef with Storm. In fact, I did enjoy reading his stuff. But when I post about weather and get it removed, I take offense. Everyone needs a sense of humor. Including Dewey. Did you go to a peanut free school?


Sorry, meant to quote PSU.
1203. hydrus
Quoting Drakoen:
Marco was similar to Karl in diameter.
New GFS comes out in one hour. I wonder what this one will say about it's future.


Julia's buildin' herself a staircase.

A Stairway to (Hurricane) Heaven.
Will Julia follow the projected path, or will it be affected by Igor's outflow and forced to move SW???


1209. unf97
Igor and Karl are looking so awesome on satellite imagery right now. Both of these cyclones are strengthening, making this even more ominous for our neighbors in Mexico and Bermuda. I know hopefully those folks in the threatened areas are preparing for the worst with each storm and definitely we are praying for the best possible outcomes!
Is this another record for today, six planes in a cyclone simultainously?


A. 17/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0413A KARL
C. 16/2045Z
D. 20.9N 93.7W
E. 16/2330Z TO 17/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

4. REMARKS: RESEARCH FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR KARL.
A. THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 25 HR MISSION
(FL 58,OO0-65,000) WITH TAKEOFF OF 16/1200Z.
B. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 16/1730Z.
C. THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 16/1800Z.
D. NOAA 42 A P-3 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION AT 12,000
FT WITH A 16/1500Z TAKEOFF.
E. A NASA WB-57 WILL FLY A 6 HR MISSION BETWEEN
52,000 AND 60,000 FT TAKEOFF AT 16/2100Z.


Quoting Grothar:
Karl causing a lot of bad weather in the entire Gulf. The big picuture!!




Great image. What a huge area this little storm(in size, not intensity) is affecting. Don't think Karl will have time to wrap all that stuff up, so those of us on the TX coast and probably eastward look to get some rain with this. We get the benefits w/o the drawbacks, but heaven help the poor folks in the way of this thing.
Quoting SLU:


and several times before that too ...
Nope. Not in 2005.

Maria went to TS 18 hours before Opelia made Hurricane.
Bermuda Marine Forecast hot of the pressLink

Quoting srada:


Everyone on the blog is GUILTY of posting non related weather..Ive seen you greet people when you come on the site, thats not weather related..so hello and goodbye will be removed as well? I got upset the other day and actually defended StormW the other day and went up against the dynamic duo but realized later it was foolish and I apologized to everyone when I exited the blog..IF StormW is behind this revolt where bloggers are minus people posts, then he is no better than the trolls themselves..I sincerely hope that isnt the case because I do think he is a great forecaster. I have been here 4 years as a member and I find this whole situation deplorable..

5.4.3.2..(my post will be removed)
I don't think it's right either if Stormw followers are doing this. It's DrM blog and no one else. I'm not the only one that greets.  I think he's a great forecaster to. I was just saying lately it's really gotten out of hand and right know we have 3 storms out there and we really need to watch them. I just can't believe how out of hand this has gotten. I really think there just trying to clean the blog up.
sheri
How big is Karl know?  I hope everyone in Bermuda stays safe.
Igor's eyewall seems to be taking a pretty serious beating:

Quoting atmoaggie:


11.

And they were:
August 17, 1893 0Z - August 24, 1893 12Z

September 12, 1926 12Z - September 14, 1926 0Z

August 31, 1950 0Z - August 31, 1950 6Z

September 2, 1950 12Z - September 4, 1950 18Z

September 7, 1961 0Z - September 12, 1961 6Z

September 10, 1967 6Z - September 11, 1967 0Z

September 12, 1967 0Z - September 12, 1967 6Z

September 14, 1967 12Z - September 16, 1967 6Z

September 8, 1980 6Z - September 8, 1980 18Z

August 30, 1995 18Z - August 31, 1995 12Z

September 23, 1998 18Z - September 27, 1998 18Z

(I posted this a couple of hours ago)


Wrong Atmo!

It's 12.

(Instance: Right now...)
1218. SeaMule
Julia is gonna dip under Igor and head west
1219. SLU
Quoting Cotillion:


Well, if you include this one, 9.


Quoting atmoaggie:


11.

And they were:
August 17, 1893 0Z - August 24, 1893 12Z

September 12, 1926 12Z - September 14, 1926 0Z

August 31, 1950 0Z - August 31, 1950 6Z

September 2, 1950 12Z - September 4, 1950 18Z

September 7, 1961 0Z - September 12, 1961 6Z

September 10, 1967 6Z - September 11, 1967 0Z

September 12, 1967 0Z - September 12, 1967 6Z

September 14, 1967 12Z - September 16, 1967 6Z

September 8, 1980 6Z - September 8, 1980 18Z

August 30, 1995 18Z - August 31, 1995 12Z

September 23, 1998 18Z - September 27, 1998 18Z

(I posted this a couple of hours ago)


That's correct! Nine different seasons
Quoting swampdawg:
Can anybody predict when SE Georgia will see rain again.......the yard is dying...


We're having the driest September in our history---St. Simons Island is 15 inches below normal for rainfall so far this year.
Julia is moving 3X faster than Igor.
Is she going to put the tugs on Igor baby, or will she merge with hjim later?

Julia 22 knots
Igor 6 knots
Quoting atmoaggie:
Nope. Not in 2005.

Maria went to TS 18 hours before Opelia made Hurricane.


yes in 2005, Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all Hurricanes at the same time on September 8th
Quoting Cotillion:


Well, if you include this one, 9.
Yep. 8 plus this year.
Quoting superpete:
What was your location during Ivan?

Passed out in the garage.
Quoting SeaMule:
Julia is gonna dip under Igor and head west


Well, then Julia is going to move NW...
Quoting SLU:




That's correct! Nine different seasons


Its 10, on September 8th, 2005; Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all hurricanes at the same time
It looks as if the GFS is narrowing Lisa from LA to FL on the last few runs.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yes in 2005, Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all Hurricanes at the same time on September 8th
Sept 8, 03 UTC is the last hurricane advisory for Maria.
21 UTC is the first for Opelia.

What are you seeing that I'm not?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml
1231. FLdewey
Blog server is getting a lot of traffic... s-l-o-w-i-n-g down to a crawl.

Must be all those WU mails.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Sept 8, 03 UTC is the last hurricane advisory for Maria.
21 UTC is the first for Opelia.

What are you seeing that I'm not?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml


unisys track says Maria was a hurricane until 21Z on September 8th
1233. angiest
So Igor is cat 3 now. When was the last time he was that "weak?"
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


We're having the driest September in our history---St. Simons Island is 15 inches below normal for rainfall so far this year.


I think future Lisa will really help out in that department come later next week. Could get a month's worth of rain in a matter of days coming.
Quoting angiest:


GFS has been developing a storm in the Caribbean on almost every run for nearly a week. Most of those runs have been into the Gulf (not all, however), and the strengths have varied. The timeframe is within the next 1-2 weeks, very roughly. It sounds like other models have started to catch on to this.

interesting....thanks!
Quoting angiest:
So Igor is cat 3 now. When was the last time he was that "weak?"
He's never been a Cat 3 per se, so... 11am on the 12th (he was a Cat 2).
1240. shawn26
Did Levi do a tropical tidbit today? If so, can somebody post it?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Sept 8, 03 UTC is the last hurricane advisory for Maria.
21 UTC is the first for Opelia.

What are you seeing that I'm not?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml


I just looked at the archive and Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all hurricanes at the 5pm advisory on September 8th, 2005
1242. BDAwx
Hurricane Watches are supposed to be issued for Bermuda tonight...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 93.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA
SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Sept 8, 03 UTC is the last hurricane advisory for Maria.
21 UTC is the first for Opelia.
What are you seeing that I'm not?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml


Hmm, not seeing what I saw before.

Looking...pretty sure 2004 and 2005 did not have 3 simultaneous hurricanes (has been researched before).
1245. FLdewey
Quoting boatdrinkz:

Passed out in the garage.

That's the way to ride out a storm.

10 points.
Dr Masters has a new, fresh Blog up.

Hot of the press class act ANALYSIS.
You know this long range storm warrants concern when even ''Ike'' is beginning to get a little bit uneasy about it, himself. BTW, you on, Ike?
Karl up to 80.
Igor's N outflow if blocking the trough that is supposed to move Julia to NE...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005

...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
Quoting shawn26:
Did Levi do a tropical tidbit today? If so, can somebody post it?
You can get to it through the member blog section. Very well done, as usual.
NEW BLOG
1253. unf97
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Igor's eyewall seems to be taking a pretty serious beating:



There is still some westerly shear that is impacting Igor, which has resulted in some deterioration of the western side of the eye and on the western quadrant in general.

NHC discussion 5p.m.

THE EXTENSION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF IGOR IS STILL PRODUCING ABOUT
15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A REDUCTION IN THE
SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...WHICH
COULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT-TERM. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IGOR WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND OVER COOLER WATERS BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Bermuda is, of course, the lonely little yellow dot toward the top left corner. Yikes...

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image


And a twofer:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image


HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES IGOR...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 58.1W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Quoting hurricanehanna:
afternoon all.....oy vey....

anywho, I keep hearing talk about the GOM/Caribbean system....what sort of time frame are we talking about??? Is this being generated from models? or is something already developing?


IMO it is ridiculous for people to even comment about something may or may not happen 10 days out.
Quoting FLdewey:
Blog server is getting a lot of traffic... s-l-o-w-i-n-g down to a crawl.

Must be all those WU mails.


That and having to process all that flagging.
Quoting Jeff9641:
It looks as if the GFS is narrowing Lisa from LA to FL on the last few runs.
Not what I want to hear. But, it has plenty of time to change.
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005

...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.



HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.



HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I just looked at the archive and Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all hurricanes at the 5pm advisory on September 8th, 2005
Hmm.

By WU's page, Ophelia gained hurricane between 18 Z and 00 Z on the 9th.
And Maria lost it about the same time.
NEW BLOG
1262. xcool
newwwwwww blog
1263. Grothar
How many times have there been 5 tropical cyclones at the same time? Trick question.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Igor's N outflow if blocking the trough that is supposed to move Julia to NE...



Almost looks like some southerly spinnage.
Quoting angiest:


GFS continues to develop a Caribbean/Gulf system.


Ah ok thanks. :) It's hard to tell from what I have to look at but the EURO still looks to be trying to bring something to the TX/LA area at the end of their run. It shows as a faint yellow blip on this model. Lol.





1266. SLU
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I just looked at the archive and Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all hurricanes at the 5pm advisory on September 8th, 2005


It may be so on the operational data but have a look at the post season analysis to see if they existed at the same time too. There might have been some changes.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005

...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.



HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.



HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...
Well, without a post-storm adjustment to intensity at those times, well, then 2005 does qualify.

Hmmm. Might have to carve out some more time to look closer.
Quoting Cotillion:
Atmo is right:

Look:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2005

...MARIA WEAKENS A LITTLE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST OR ABOUT 675
MILES...1085 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

That isn't necessarily the data that goes into HURRDAT though. The final data is in the post storm analysis and sometimes changes from the operational advisory.
Quoting Grothar:
How many times have there been 5 tropical cyclones at the same time? Trick question.
that's not nice...
The link for Levi is:
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/Levi32

Quoting shawn26:
Did Levi do a tropical tidbit today? If so, can somebody post it?
1271. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
that's not nice...


It is answerable. Go ahead.
1272. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
How many times have there been 5 tropical cyclones at the same time? Trick question.
Hello Gro..Probably happens quite a bit in the West Pacific.
Quoting RyanFSU:
Based upon a pretty quick analysis: today September 16 has a chance for the most ACE in a day, since 1900. We are at 10.00 through 12z with another set of 18z obs to be added... Yesterday was 10.55.

Here's the list (ACE on days in which at least one-100 knot hurricane occurs -- obviously could be several storms)...



That's an interesting list---thanks for putting it up. The figures I got using the wunderground database were different---9/11/1961 was still tops but just above 13....and yesterday at 11.22 of ACE when I computed it. I might go back and recheck my work on that tonight.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I think future Lisa will really help out in that department come later next week. Could get a month's worth of rain in a matter of days coming.


A tropical storm like that would be nice. Something weak, wet, and slow.
Thanks God, that monster did'nt touch us... only high tides, maybe some rain, but mostly hot sun.....
1276. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Gro..Probably happens quite a bit in the West Pacific.


No Atlantic storms. Here, I will show you. I was quite old at the time, but I do remember it well. Here is an interesting image. I thought atmo could answer this, but I guess he couldn't.



From Max Mayfield:
I recall we had five Atlantic tropical cyclones simultaneously when I was a hurricane forecaster at National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 1995. The NHC best track files from that year between 1200 UTC August 27 to 0000 UTC August 28 show Hurricane Humberto, Tropical Storm Iris (soon to become a hurricane), Tropical Depression Jerry, Tropical Depression Twelve (soon to become Tropical Storm Karen), and Tropical Depression Thirteen (soon to become Hurricane Luis) all ongoing at the same time. Unfortunately, I don’t have a satellite image from that exact time period, but Idid find some from just before and after.
Interesting; another view of 1995 season; Parade storm view...

Ya'll gonna keep chatting to yourselves or join everyone in the NEW BLOG?
1279. bassis
Quoting PcolaDan:
Ya'll gonna keep chatting to yourselves or join everyone in the NEW BLOG?


Groth- thats a cool post of the 5 storms at once

quick question does admin have a top number on how many post get censored before they ban for 24 hours

also it looks like "J" is getting her act together in the last couple of frames
Does anybody know what the 384 hr 12z GFS shows on that potential GOM system? I can't get it to run in my browser. Thanks.
pretty funny read on geology and science:

http://www.examiner.com/science-policy-in-austin/christine-o-donnell-is-deeply-confused-on-geology- and-science
1282. juniort
We are having some very strong winds and heavy rains here in barbados.