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Karl makes landfall near Veracruz; Igor slightly weaker

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:29 PM GMT on September 17, 2010

Hurricane Karl made landfall on the Mexican coast ten miles north of Veracruz at 1pm EDT today as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Veracruz was on the weak (left) side of Karl's eyewall, and did not receive hurricane force winds, except perhaps at the extreme northern edge of the city. Winds at the Veracruz Airport, located on the west side of the city, peaked at sustained speeds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11:54am local time. Radar out of Alvarado shows that Karl has kept its eyewall intact well inland, even as the storm moves into the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Bay of Campeche--the region of the Gulf of Mexico bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl is a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945).


Figure 1. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

With Karl's ascension to major hurricane status, we are now ahead of the pace of the terrible hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 for number of major hurricanes so early in the year. In 2005, the fifth major hurricane (Rita) did not occur until September 21, and in 2004, the fifth major hurricane (Karl) arrived on September 19. Wunderblogger Cotillion has put together a nice page showing all the seasons with five or more major hurricanes. The last time we had five major hurricanes earlier in the season was in 1961, when the fifth major hurricane (Esther) arrived on September 13. This morning we continue to have three simultaneous hurricanes, Hurricanes Igor, Julia, and Karl. This is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight previous years since 1851. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. The year 2005 came within six hours of having three hurricanes at the same time, but the official data base constructed after the season was over indicates that the three hurricanes did not exist simultaneously.

Also remarkable this year is that are seeing major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the strongest hurricane on record so far east, Karl was the strongest hurricane so far south in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest Atlantic hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year.


Figure 2. Hurricane Karl as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 12:20 pm CDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Radar image of Karl at landfall in Mexico. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service.

Impact of Karl on Mexico
Given that the Bay of Campeche coast has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Karl, its impact is likely to cause major damage to a 50-mile wide coastal area beginning ten miles north of Veracruz. Fortunately, the coast is not heavily populated there, and is not particularly low-lying, so the 12 - 15 foot storm surge will not be the major concern from Karl. The main concern will be flooding from Karl's torrential rains. The region has been hit by three Category 2 hurricanes over the past 55 years, and two of these storms caused flooding that killed hundreds. The strongest hurricanes in history to affect the region were Item in 1950, with 110 mph winds, Janet in 1955, with 100 mph winds, and Diana of 1990, with 100 mph winds. Flooding from Janet killed over 800 people in Mexico. and flooding from Diana killed at least 139 people. Karl's high winds are also a major concern, and these winds are likely to extensive damage.

Igor
The Hurricane Hunters just left Hurricane Igor, and found that the hurricane has continued to slowly weaken. On their last pass through the eye of Igor at 1:49 pm EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 947 mb. The eyewall was missing a chunk on its southwest side. Top winds at the surface as seen by their SFMR instrument were barely Category 1 strength, 76 mph, though the aircraft did see 117 mph winds at 10,000 feet, which suggests the surface winds were probably of Category 2 strength, 105 mph.


Figure 4. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 10:50 am EDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
Hurricane warnings are now flying for Bermuda, and tropical storm force winds will arrive at the island late Saturday night. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles to the north of its center. As the hurricane moves north, it will expand in size, as it takes advantage of the extra spin available at higher latitudes due to Earth's rotation. By Saturday night, Igor's tropical storm force winds are expected to extend outwards 320 miles from the center. Igor will be moving at about 11 - 13 mph during the final 24 hours of its approach to Bermuda, so the island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near midnight Saturday night--a full 24 hours before the core of Igor arrives. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes the island near midnight Sunday night, and Bermuda's battering by tropical storm force winds will not be as long as Igor moves away, perhaps 10 hours long. Hurricane force winds will probably extend out about 70 miles from the center when the core of Igor reaches Bermuda, and the island can expect to be pounded by hurricane force winds for up to 6 - 8 hours. In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda. However, buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and if Igor weakens to Category 2 strength, as appears likely, damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. According to AIR Worldwide, "Homes in Bermuda are typically one or two stories and constructed of 'Bermuda Stone,' a locally quarried limestone, or of concrete blocks. Roofs are commonly made of limestone slate tiles cemented together. Commercial buildings, typically of reinforced concrete construction, rarely exceed six stories. In both residential and commercial buildings, window openings are generally small and window shutters are common. These features make Bermuda's building stock quite resistant to winds, and homes are designed to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of up to 150 mph."

Bermuda's hurricane history
Igor is similar in strength and projected track to Hurricane Fabian of 2003. Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It was the most damaging hurricane ever to hit the island, with $355 million in damage. Fabian's storm surge killed four people crossing a causeway on the island. These were the first hurricane deaths on Bermuda since 1926. The most powerful hurricane on record to strike Bermuda was the Category 4 Havana-Bermuda Hurricane, which hit on October 22, 1926, with 135 mph winds. The hurricane sank two British warships, claiming 88 lives, but no one was killed on the island. The deadliest hurricane to affect the island occurred on September 12, 1839, when a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and an 11-foot storm surge hit, tearing off the roofs of hundreds of buildings and wrecking several ships. An estimated 100 people were killed (source: Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones, by David Longshore.)

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, is disorganized, but has the potential for some slow development over the next few days. The NOGAPS model develops this wave into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting btwntx08:
ur welcome sarah


Hey neighbor, was out of town for the week. Last thing ya'll need down there is more rain. Opening dove season is a bust.....arghhhh. Can you give me a quick run through of why so many people "left" the blog?
2002. tacoman
bordonaro its nothing..its just and area of rain that will move into southern texas..it cant develop the high is just to strong for it to move back out into the gom again...a rainmaker for texas..
Quoting dader:


Well the only thing simliar about that track would be its movement. The CMC run doesnt look like Wilma at all to me.
and over the past week that run has had the Low hit every state from Brownsville TX to Miami, to Savannah GA. Too far out people.
Quoting Neapolitan:


NOAA doesn't currently cover Bermuda with its SLOSH model:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
NICE post. Thank you. I've been pulling my hair trying to find this ever since my PC crashed weeks ago.
2005. bird72
Quoting IKE:


Yes.

You think 94l needs to be watch by us?
Quoting atmoaggie:
!?!?!

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/EDIS-89DP3D?OpenDocument

Haiti: Storm surge warning issued for north coast

The Haitian Red Cross has warned communities living along the country's north coast of a potentially dangerous storm surge over the coming days.
...
According to the DPC, the storm surge could be as high as 14 feet (four metres) %u2013 potentially affecting thousands of people who live along the coast. The surge is the result of water being pushed South and South West by Hurricane Igor, which is now heading north up the United States' Atlantic Coast.

atmo: Uhh, I hope that's bullsh.. The storm surge modeler in me says it is. 2 - 4 feet, yeah, maybe. 14 feet?


Igor has been sitting there for a long time...And we all remember how far in advance of Ike the surge started coming ashore in places like Bolivar. Hmmm.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Believe me, now that systems begin to develop in the western Caribbean and SW Atlantic, you're going to see loads of different types of tracks. Systems like Rita, Wilma, Ida, Beta, etc are known to prowl in October and November.


I dont know if you saw my question, I am just trying to learn, not argue!
It does not seem like this next invest formed much further south than the others, and with its current NW movement, it willend up in the same place.
There was stuff moving west near that region yesterday, but it seems to have consolidated into what we are now discussing.
Is it that much further south than the others? Also, what makes you think the storm will have a better chance? It just seems like, if anything, the troughs will get more frequent and more strong in the coming weeks. Is this wrong?
Thanks!
1987:

It's a feeder band from Karl which broke away and tried to develope it's own circulation.

However, based on the most recent vorticity map I've seen, the vort max is already over land, so it is unlikely to develop any time soon.
2009. IKE
Quoting bird72:


That could change the stearing pattern is some way?


More moisture...favorable for tropical development. I don't think it has anything to do with steering.
Quoting bird72:


That could change the stearing pattern is some way?
Yes. Upward motion promotes ridging across the SE U.S which could cause for more cyclones to move towards the U.S, particularly the SE and Gulf states if the system is coming from the east to west.
Quoting P451:


It's an area of low pressure that extended northward from Karl over the past two days. It does have a chance to develop albeit slowly at first.

Looks like it is developing NOW. A tornado warning has just been issued for Corpus Christi, TX, as a waterspout is moving inland from these bands of convection.

The NHC needs to watch this for a surprise TS!!!

Link to AVN satellite loop of the GOM:
Link
oh i just looked at the cmc right at 144hrs that system that develops in the sw caribbean which it will be in the gom by then is shown to be a strong hurricane compared to the other systems it shows
Quoting Neapolitan:


NOAA doesn't currently cover Bermuda with its SLOSH model:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Why would NOAA provide Bahama with SLOSH modeling, but the Bahamas refuses to share their radar data with anyone? (Yeah, I know we can get plots. Talking about the data, here.)
this has good turning i think this has a ch of be comeing 95L be for too long its all so moveing a way from land

Link
2015. tacoman
bio chemist as soon as igor moves out the pictute the weakness will fill in and push anything west towards the caribbean sea...if lisa was to develop it could spell trouble for the islands..
2016. LeMoyne
Quoting Skyepony @ 1921:
IGOR


Thank you for the viewer
I am noticing a sense of complacency in here and along the Panhandle coast. A lot of talk of Fish or Mexico storms, chances of the Gulf Coast not getting a direct hit by the end of October are pretty slim IMO. People should not let their guard down yet.

2018. IKE
Quoting IKE:


More moisture...favorable for tropical development. I don't think it has anything to do with steering.


I could be wrong on that from what MH09 says.
This is isabel.

Quoting mfaria101:


Glad to hear it Flood, I'll mail you back later, have some coffee and hash issues I need to attend to.


Ahhh...coffee and hash...reminds me of my old band days...
Quoting BioChemist:


I dont know if you saw my question, I am just trying to learn, not argue!
It does not seem like this next invest formed much further south than the others, and with its current NW movement, it willend up in the same place.
There was stuff moving west near that region yesterday, but it seems to have consolidated into what we are now discussing.
Is it that much further south than the others? Also, what makes you think the storm will have a better chance? It just seems like, if anything, the troughs will get more frequent and more strong in the coming weeks. Is this wrong?
Thanks!
Yeah, it is possible that it recurves due to the weaknesses induced in the subtropical ridge by the trofs, but it isn't "set in stone" (as StormTop likes to say, lol). I would like to see some dynamical plots run on the invest before having a clue as to where it may go.
2022. IKE
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I am noticing a sense of complacency in here and along the Panhandle coast. A lot of talk of Fish or Mexico storms, chances of the Gulf Coast not getting a direct hit by the end of October are pretty slim IMO. People should not let their guard down yet.




The long-range GFS model, along with many other models continue to predict a Gulf hurricane.

06z places it over the Cancun/Cozumel area, then moves it SW into the BoC, stalls it then gives it a possible hit in the Texas coast.



00z run last night shows a possible Miami area landfall.



18z run hinted more toward Tampa Bay.



Yesterday's 12z run also showed stalling, but in the NORTHERN Gulf.



CMC develops a similar system quite quickly, but from the SW Caribbean, and passes it over Cancun.

Quoting Bordonaro:
Folks, what is this area of disturbed weather off of the Mexican coast. Do we have a spare HH aircraft to fly into this?????


This is the remains of Karl....

Taco :o)
Quoting StormJunkie:


Igor has been sitting there for a long time...And we all remember how far in advance of Ike the surge started coming ashore in places like Bolivar. Hmmm.
But, Ike's early surge had everything to do with being trapped in the gulf and Ike running parallel to the coast and right off the shelf.

This makes no sense. If it were a real threat,on that line of thinking, Jacksonville would have been flooded by Earl and Igor, for example, and many other places.
2026. scott39
Goodmorning, Are the models showing the same steering pattern for the next 2 weeks?
2027. bird72
Quoting IKE:


More moisture...favorable for tropical development. I don't think it has anything to do with steering.


Can Kelvin wave, forecast to be on Atlantic in next days, have an enhancement effect additional to the MJO, toward incremenent in tropical cyclones?
2028. tkeith
Quoting Floodman:


Ahhh...coffee and hash...reminds me of my old band days...
LOL...
Quoting P451:


This is something that has been modeled and forecasted since early June to happen "In 7-10 days" endlessly only for it to never happen.

However, this time the signals are very strong, that it may finally after all this time actually come to be. If it does then we will see continued increased period of activity into and through October.

It would of course be worrisome if this does indeed verify.

Yet given the pattern we've seen this summer, and the fact that such anticipated patterns did not evolve regardless of the modeling forecasting it to do so, I will personally wait until it is actually transitioning before putting any faith into the models.

Wait and see....


I agree on a wait and see. We've been hearing of a pattern change that does not seem to want to materialize. I'm not picking on anyone especially on this blog about forecasting a change because Dr. Knabb has spoken about it and our TV mets have as well. The models says change but the pattern seems to be stuck. If it does break then we really need to watch out.

So lets wait and see.
HurricaneIgor's heading had turned westward to (2.9degrees north of) NorthWest
from its previous heading of (9.1degrees north of) NorthWest
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~12.3mph(~19.9km/h)

17Sep 03pmGMT - - 23.1n60.1w - - 120mph - - 945mb - - NHC.Adv.#38
17Sep 06pmGMT - - 23.4n60.7w - - 115mph - - 946mb - - #38A
17Sep 09pmGMT - - 23.7n61.1w - - 105mph - - 947mb - - #39
18Sep 12amGMT - - 24.2n61.3w - - 105mph - - 947mb - - #39A
18Sep 03amGMT - - 24.6n62.0w - - 110mph - - 947mb - - #40
18Sep 06amGMT - - 24.9n62.4w - - 110mph - - 942mb - - #40A
18Sep 09amGMT - - 25.1n62.8w - - 110mph - - 939mb - - #41
18Sep 12pmGMT - - 25.6n63.2w - - 110mph - - 939mb - - #41A
18Sep 03pmGMT - - 26.0n63.6w - - 110mph - - 939mb - - #42

Copy&paste 23.1n60.1w, 23.4n60.7w, 23.7n61.1w, 24.2n61.3w, 24.6n62.0w-24.9n62.4w, 24.9n62.4w-25.1n62.8w, 25.1n62.8w-25.6n63.2w, 25.6n63.2w-26.0n63.6w, jax, ilm, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
2031. IKE
8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 18
Location: 25.6°N 63.2°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb
..........................................

...NEW HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IGOR... ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...
11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 18
Location: 26.0°N 63.6°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb
Quoting IKE:





I hear ya brother
I just hope bermuda is prepared for what Igor is about to bring them.He could possibly end up being the worst storm to affect them in 7 years.
2035. Prgal
Quoting atmoaggie:
!?!?!

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/EDIS-89DP3D?OpenDocument

Haiti: Storm surge warning issued for north coast

The Haitian Red Cross has warned communities living along the country's north coast of a potentially dangerous storm surge over the coming days.
...
According to the DPC, the storm surge could be as high as 14 feet (four metres) %u2013 potentially affecting thousands of people who live along the coast. The surge is the result of water being pushed South and South West by Hurricane Igor, which is now heading north up the United States' Atlantic Coast.

atmo: Uhh, I hope that's bullsh.. The storm surge modeler in me says it is. 2 - 4 feet, yeah, maybe. 14 feet?


I am not sure about Haiti but here in PR we have the same warning and we have had 15 feet waves in the northern coast. Sadly yesterday a 19 year old woman lost her life in Arecibo. She was at the beach and a huge wave "came out of nowhere" and took her and her boyfriend. He was able to get out but she couldnt.
2036. IKE
Quoting bird72:


Can Kelvin wave, forecast to be on Atlantic in next days, have an enhancement effect additional to the MJO, toward incremenent in tropical cyclones?


I'm not sure on that. Others on here should know.
Not quite, Karl's remnants are in EPac. This is therefore the remnant outflow of Karl that the storm brought into the Gulf as part of a larger low pressure system prior to making landfall.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Fried crispy please and thanks! Can I get a side of grits with that too.
oops, wrong hash...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON FANAPI (T1011)
21:00 PM JST September 18 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Fanapi (940 hPa) located at 23.9N 124.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.1N 119.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 23.9N 115.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 23.7N 111.4E - Tropical Depression
Link to Bermuda Weather Service Web Cam provided yesterday by Chucktown

Link
09 dos this have a ch of becomeing any thing its sure on its way of becomeing 95L all so i have noted good turing with this all so it looks stalled or vary slow moveing S


Link
2042. bird72
Quoting IKE:


I could be wrong on that from what MH09 says.


Don't worry about that, we are here to learn and observe, and some of you who have better knowledge of this, to teach some of us who have less knowledge about this. :)
Quoting Prgal:


I am not sure about Haiti but here in PR we have the same warning and we have had 15 feet waves in the northern coast. Sadly yesterday a 19 year old woman lost her life in Arecibo. She was at the beach and a huge wave "came out of nowhere" and took her and her boyfriend. He was able to get out but she couldnt.
Yeah, waves, I would expect up to 14 foot waves. Surge is something completely different...
2044. IKE
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I hear ya brother


I jumped in my Oldsmobile, with my doberman pincher and got the heck out of here for that one.
Quoting atmoaggie:
But, Ike's early surge had everything to do with being trapped in the gulf and Ike running parallel to the coast and right off the shelf.

This makes no sense. If it were a real threat,on that line of thinking, Jacksonville would have been flooded by Earl and Igor, for example, and many other places.


I must admit Atmo...My laziness this morning and only one cup of coffee, I did not read the link. That said, Earl was moving a good bit faster than Igor correct? And was also a good bit smaller, not that he was really a small storm...But geez, Igor is just ridiculously large.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, it is possible that it recurves due to the weaknesses induced in the subtropical ridge by the trofs, but it isn't "set in stone" (as StormTop likes to say, lol). I would like to see some dynamical plots run on the invest before having a clue as to where it may go.


Thanks! It seems that the gulf coast gets has more to worry about if it does not develop, and drifts as a wave into the carib. 2004 was crazy in that troughs were just not very strong, allowing he ridge to be very perssitent. This allowed Francis and gene, Ivan, to hit the area right?
This year obviously does not have that pattern, this years CV storms just look like they pose the greatest danger to North Carolina, and possible the East Coast of Florid. I understand things change, but its just a trend I have noticed.
I think that if development slowed off Africa, then the GOM may have more to worry about, and if monsoonal moisture made it into the carib.

IDK though!
2047. Prgal
Another cam from Bermuda: Link
2048. BDADUDE
Quoting Skyepony:


A few of the BAM models are beginning to figure Igor could failed to be completely swept off by the front & then get caught under the next ridge. Perhaps it's because the front is becoming kinda flat. Brings confidence down on the forecast a little but I wouldn't stop preparing in Bermuda yet. Igor is a big force.
Are you saying that we wont get this hit, cool. I hope you are right.
Quoting tkeith:
LOL...


How you doing this morning, brother?
theres hardly vorticity with that some and the closest vorticity is inland
Continential shelf relief map of FL. Notice how the northwest coast has generally a gradual slope; while the coast of Miami drops off very fast & has a very steep slope.

Quoting pottery:

Did not know it was as high as that.
But are you saying that the older bldgs have no fixings between roof and wall?
What is the roof made of?


there is sometimes maybe 1 nail, but its limestone slate. My own house has it and didn't come off in hurricane Fabian. Now adays they have 'SKB' roof which is fully attached and everything and suppose to hold a cat 4 i believe
Quoting Prgal:
Another cam from Bermuda: Link


Thanks PRgal
2055. hydrus
Quite a bit of heavy rain left over from Karl. (like they need more).
2056. tkeith
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, hard to keep that kind lit...LOL
I'm gettin the munchies just readin these posts...
A coastline with a shallow shelf is always going to be much more prone to the impacts of a hurricane's storm surge than a coastline marked by a steep shelf
Quoting IKE:


I jumped in my Oldsmobile, with my doberman pincher and got the heck out of here for that one.
There was a special on storm stories about 4 years ago years talking about Opal being a late season monster.and how it rapidly intensifyed bringing with it a 15 foot storm surge.
2059. Prgal
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Thanks PRgal


Your welcome! Looks breezy in Bermuda.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Continential shelf relief map of FL. Notice how the northwest coast has generally a gradual slope; while the coast of Miami drops off very fast & has a very steep slope.

That lack of shelf is exactly why Miami will probably never have a 30+ foot surge. 20 foot, maybe, for a worst case scenario.

The deeper water, there, allows more of the surge waters to "escape" along the coast (rather than over it) than in places with a shallow shelf.
2061. IKE
Quoting washingtonian115:
There was a special on storm stories about 4 years ago years talking about Opal being a late season monster.and how it rapidly intensifyed bringing with it a 15 foot storm surge.


It was awful here...fortunately it weakened before land-falling near Fort Walton Beach,FL.
Quoting Floodman:


Ahhh...coffee and hash...reminds me of my old band days...


Yeah only these days the hash is potatoes and veggies...
Bermuda radar showing some heavier bands 160 km SE of the islands:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
At this point let's hope we get a last minute jog to the east by Igor prior to invading Bermuda's sector. Still will be very bad, but not as severe as a head on hit or even traversing 30 miles west of the inland given it's immense size.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Continential shelf relief map of FL. Notice how the northwest coast has generally a gradual slope; while the coast of Miami drops off very fast & has a very steep slope.



I always thought that is why SE Coast does not have very large storm surges, our shore it way too deep.
I wish our beaches has a shallow slope like the entire west coast and the central and northeast coasts of Florida have.

We don't have good waves for surfers for that reason also.

thanks for that graphic.

2067. Prgal
Wow, just read that there is another person missing because of the surge. This time its in St. Croix, USVI.
2068. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
A coastline with a shallow shelf is always going to be much more prone to the impacts of a hurricane's storm surge than a coastline marked by a steep shelf
The GEM still has a good size storm for the Gulf of Mexico . Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
Bermuda radar showing some heavier bands 160 km SE of the islands:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Excellent link. THANK YOU.
Quoting tkeith:
I'm gettin the munchies just readin these posts...


rofl... would you guys please stop with the talk of food and munchies...
making me want to get up and go get something from the break room...
and I really do not need those calories! LOL
Quoting btwntx08:
theres hardly vorticity with that some and the closest vorticity is inland
Link

I suspect you are talking about the unsettled area in the western area of the GOM. I agree with you. And that small amount of vorticity s over land that is drifting to the west.. Not only that, it is very elongated north to south from s. Central Texas to N. Mexico. Lots of rain, but very little chance for tropical. storm development
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Continential shelf relief map of FL. Notice how the northwest coast has generally a gradual slope; while the coast of Miami drops off very fast & has a very steep slope.



I always thought that the coast of where I live (PBC) wasn't that steep. I think that since Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Ike caused surge way beyond their respective Categories benchmarks, the NHC should revise the them to help Gulf Coast residents.
Quoting Prgal:


Your welcome! Looks breezy in Bermuda.


Just a little -- one more link that I found

Link
If this develops, there will be a big problem!!
2075. WxLogic
12Z NAM Starting to show moisture surges in the Carib.
Quoting atmoaggie:
That lack of shelf is exactly why Miami will probably never have a 30+ foot surge. 20 foot, maybe, for a worst case scenario.

The deeper water, there, allows more of the surge waters to "escape" along the coast (rather than over it) than in places with a shallow shelf.
Yep. Exactly
With Hermine, and mess left in gulf from Karl, we are gonna float away
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
94L.INVEST
13L.KARL
12L.JULIA
11L.IGOR

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
90W.INVEST
12W.FANAPI

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


Invest 94? Where's that?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WTNT01 KNGU 180901
WARNING ATCN MIL 11L NAT 100918082426

2010091806 11L IGOR 041 03 300 10 SATL 060
T000 248N 0625W 095 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T012 262N 0641W 100 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T024 278N 0651W 105 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T036 299N 0653W 100 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 322N 0647W 095 R050 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 250 SE QD 210 SW QD 240 NW QD
T072 385N 0585W 080 R050 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 300 SE QD 270 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 475N 0465W 065
T120 515N 0395W 055
AMP
NNNN
SUBJ: HURRICANE IGOR (11L) WARNING NR 041
1. HURRICANE IGOR (11L) WARNING NR 041
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 24.8N 62.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 62.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.2N 64.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.8N 65.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 29.9N 65.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 32.2N 64.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 38.5N 58.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 47.5N 46.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 51.5N 39.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 62.8W. OR APPROX 1010NM SE OF
NORFOLK. 12FT SEAS: 600NM NE, 540NM SE, 480NM SW, 600NM NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181501Z, 182101Z, 190301Z AND 190901Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
1110090700 128N 189W 25
1110090706 132N 195W 25
1110090712 137N 201W 25
1110090718 140N 211W 25
1110090800 140N 219W 25
1110090806 139N 226W 30
1110090812 138N 233W 40
1110090818 138N 237W 40
1110090900 138N 242W 35
1110090906 138N 243W 35
1110090912 142N 245W 35
1110090918 149N 263W 35
1110091000 153N 274W 30
1110091006 159N 287W 30
1110091012 163N 304W 35
1110091018 166N 325W 40
1110091100 169N 348W 50
1110091100 169N 348W 50
1110091106 171N 370W 60
1110091106 171N 370W 60
1110091112 173N 387W 60
1110091112 173N 387W 60
1110091118 174N 404W 60
1110091118 174N 404W 60
1110091200 176N 419W 65
1110091200 176N 419W 65
1110091200 176N 419W 65
1110091206 177N 438W 65
1110091206 177N 438W 65
1110091206 177N 438W 65
1110091212 177N 449W 85
1110091212 177N 449W 85
1110091212 177N 449W 85
1110091218 177N 461W 115
1110091218 177N 461W 115
1110091218 177N 461W 115
1110091300 177N 473W 130
1110091300 177N 473W 130
1110091300 177N 473W 130
1110091306 176N 483W 130
1110091306 176N 483W 130
1110091306 176N 483W 130
1110091312 176N 492W 130
1110091312 176N 492W 130
1110091312 176N 492W 130
1110091318 176N 502W 130
1110091318 176N 502W 130
1110091318 176N 502W 130
1110091400 177N 508W 125
1110091400 177N 508W 125
1110091400 177N 508W 125
1110091406 178N 514W 115
1110091406 178N 514W 115
1110091406 178N 514W 115
1110091412 181N 520W 115
1110091412 181N 520W 115
1110091412 181N 520W 115
1110091418 185N 527W 125
1110091418 185N 527W 125
1110091418 185N 527W 125
1110091500 189N 535W 135
1110091500 189N 535W 135
1110091500 189N 535W 135
1110091506 192N 541W 125
1110091506 192N 541W 125
1110091506 192N 541W 125
1110091512 195N 547W 115
1110091512 195N 547W 115
1110091512 195N 547W 115
1110091518 198N 553W 115
1110091518 198N 553W 115
1110091518 198N 553W 115
1110091600 201N 561W 120
1110091600 201N 561W 120
1110091600 201N 561W 120
1110091606 203N 565W 125
1110091606 203N 565W 125
1110091606 203N 565W 125
1110091612 209N 570W 120
1110091612 209N 570W 120
1110091612 209N 570W 120
1110091618 214N 578W 115
1110091618 214N 578W 115
1110091618 214N 578W 115
1110091700 218N 584W 115
1110091700 218N 584W 115
1110091700 218N 584W 115
1110091706 222N 591W 110
1110091706 222N 591W 110
1110091706 222N 591W 110
1110091712 228N 599W 100
1110091712 228N 599W 100
1110091712 228N 599W 100
1110091718 234N 607W 95
1110091718 234N 607W 95
1110091718 234N 607W 95
1110091800 243N 615W 95
1110091800 243N 615W 95
1110091800 243N 615W 95
1110091806 248N 625W 95
1110091806 248N 625W 95
1110091806 248N 625W 95




a link would be better next time we did not need too see a post that long
Anyone? thoughts on this?

2084. JRRP
2085. tacoman
bordonaro its surely getting better organized by the feeder bands to the north...i dont see any dry air its moved out this does bare watching it could develop quickly with the warm sst down there...interesting to say the least..
2086. tkeith
Quoting Tazmanian:



a link would be better next time we did not need too see a post that long
especially if someone quotes it...lol
Quoting IKE:





I was in college when Opal blew up in '95 and remember Cantore saying that everyone was being distracted by the O.J. Simpson verdict..
2088. Patrap
GOM IR Loop de' Loop



2071. MrNatural 3:12 PM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
theres hardly vorticity with that some and the closest vorticity is inland
Link

I suspect you are talking about the unsettled area in the western area of the GOM. I agree with you. And that small amount of vorticity s over land that is drifting to the west.. Not only that, it is very elongated north to south from s. Central Texas to N. Mexico. Lots of rain, but very little chance for tropical. storm development

yep mostly a rain event sorry about that earlier not fully awake yet
Quoting Inactivity:
Anyone? thoughts on this?




has a good ch of becomeing some it all so has a goood ch of becomeing 95L
2092. Patrap
Quoting bermuda1023:


there is sometimes maybe 1 nail, but its limestone slate. My own house has it and didn't come off in hurricane Fabian. Now adays they have 'SKB' roof which is fully attached and everything and suppose to hold a cat 4 i believe


That SKB-devised system is pretty amazing, and it's being looked at here in the states as a viable roofing alternative in hurricane-prone areas. (That's "viable" as in "strong yet affordable".) One of my larger clients is a roofing contractor, and they've looked at the SKB system, which is flat Bermuda concrete tile covered by four layers of waterproofing/windproofing, effectively turning a roof into a monolithic unit. IOW, the entire roof would have to come off at once; there'd be no more of that tile-by-tile destruction we've seen in recent storms here in the states.
Quoting tacoman:
bordonaro its surely getting better organized by the feeder bands to the north...i dont see any dry air its moved out this does bare watching it could develop quickly with the warm sst down there...interesting to say the least..

This season is BIZARRE, we had Karl go from a friendly lil' TS w/40MPH winds to a CAT 3 in about 24 hrs.

The NHC should watch this area of weather off of MX, things can change real fast is this insane hyperactive 2010 ATL Hurricane Season !!
Quoting tacoman:
bordonaro its surely getting better organized by the feeder bands to the north...i dont see any dry air its moved out this does bare watching it could develop quickly with the warm sst down there...interesting to say the least..
just had a line of rain come over-looks like we have another rainmaker here
Quoting hydrus:
The GEM still has a good size storm for the Gulf of Mexico . Link
Sure does at this point. That model's been very pertinacious w/ developing this thus far. Something to keep an eye on...
Quoting tkeith:
especially if someone quotes it...lol


Haha, +1
What was Igor's total ACE so far?

What was Igor's current IKE number?

What was Igor's maximum IKE number?
2099. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Quoting btwntx08:
2071. MrNatural 3:12 PM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
theres hardly vorticity with that some and the closest vorticity is inland
Link

I suspect you are talking about the unsettled area in the western area of the GOM. I agree with you. And that small amount of vorticity s over land that is drifting to the west.. Not only that, it is very elongated north to south from s. Central Texas to N. Mexico. Lots of rain, but very little chance for tropical. storm development

yep mostly a rain event sorry about that earlier not fully awake yet

I understand, this area of disturbed weather looks menacing and convection is increasing hour by hour!!
2101. hydrus
Quoting Inactivity:
Anyone? thoughts on this?

If it persisits for over 24 hours they will give it an invest number..The ECMWF shows the Bermuda High growing Huge...Link
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop de' Loop





Patrap,
Any chance this could develop into anything? I still remember waking up to Humberto.
The area in the Gulf w/ convection is moist all around and shear is low.Water is also warm,possible yellow circle at 2pm.
2106. Patrap
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Patrap,
Any chance this could develop into anything? I still remember waking up to Humberto.


Dunno,,Im not a met,but the area will be watched closely Im sure.
nhc could mention it but im not seeing anything out of it
To pan out a bit, here's more of an aerial view of the Gulf's shelf:

am giveing pre 95L a 50% ch in the gulf
invest 94L.
2111. IKE
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


I was in college when Opal blew up in '95 and remember Cantore saying that everyone was being distracted by the O.J. Simpson verdict..


Back when Cantore had hair and John Hope was the tropical expert on TWC.
Quoting Patrap:


Dunno,,Im not a met,but the area will be watched closely Im sure.


The spin on it in the graph you put up makes it appear to be pulling away from the coast.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


The spin on it in the graph you put up makes it appear to be pulling away from the coast.



thats what am seeing has well
Quoting IKE:


Back when Cantore had hair and John Hope was the tropical expert on TWC.
LOL. The good ole days!
2115. Patrap
Always a suspect area when one sees some outflow ,warm sst's and maybe some Genesis will occur.

Happened before there..in years past
Quoting RecordSeason:
What was Igor's total ACE so far?

What was Igor's current IKE number?

What was Igor's maximum IKE number?


Igor's ACE: 36.4275
Igor's HDP: 34.1750

Not sure about IKE...
2117. Patrap
2118. tacoman
if this does develop it would move nne or ne it clearly shows the high has weakenend a good bit over the gom and thats not good ..dry air has completely moved out..this does have a chance to develop...i would say a 30% chance.
2119. hydrus
After Igor splits, high pressure builds in quickly and low pressure all over the place south of 20 degrees....Link GFS.
Quoting tkeith:
I'm gettin the munchies just readin these posts...


Donuts, baby...
Quoting btwntx08:
nhc could mention it but im not seeing anything out of it
How much rain did ya'll end up with Hermine?
#2108 you notice the lack of a shallow shelf along the south and southeast Florida coast is right in alignment with the Gulf Stream.

The GS is deep and it comes really close to the shore in SE Florida. and where there is a long shallow shelf you do not have the GS..
2123. tkeith
Quoting Floodman:


Donuts, baby...
hold on.......couldn't type with my mouth full :)
Surface trough in the western GOM. Would certainly be something to see such a random development.
Quoting Patrap:


And this map appears the opposite. Confusing. Wish I understood all this better.
Quoting hydrus:
If it persisits for over 24 hours they will give it an invest number..The ECMWF shows the Bermuda High growing Huge...Link


Appears to have lasted for 4-6 hours so far.
2128. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Donuts, baby...
Munchies already Flood??...HHHHHAAAAA..Good morning by the way..:)
2129. beell
Hey, the blog looks "normal" this morning. Good work, folks....

Western gulf feature seems to be mostly a mid-level thing. An inverted trough-drifting ever so slowly to the west. Shows up well at 500mb and also at 700mb. Hopefully, nothing more than a rainy weekend for S TX.

Photobucket

Link
Good morning all.
Nice to see so many familiar faces and a pleasant discussion going on.
Out to walk the poor dog and put up a pot for myself.
Quoting seflagamma:
#2108 you notice the lack of a shallow shelf along the south and southeast Florida coast is right in alignment with the Gulf Stream.

The GS is deep and it comes really close to the shore in SE Florida. and where there is a long shallow shelf you do not have the GS..
Yep. Good observation.
2132. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGING WILL REMAIN JUST INLAND OVER THE N GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS
EACH DAY IN THE FAR SW GULF NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO.
.............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE IGOR NEAR 26.0N 63.6W 939 MB AT 1100 AM
AST MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT
GUSTS 115 KT. IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY. OTHERWISE A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON
WITH EASTERLY TRADES RESUMING LATE TUE AND WED.
here copy and paste this link this is the steering for the possble system in the gom
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
Quoting hydrus:
Munchies already Flood??...HHHHHAAAAA..Good morning by the way..:)


Happens when you don;t sleep...got to keep gong somehow...LOL

Okay kids, I'm out for a bit...work to do, don't you know
2135. IKE
942.3 mb
(~ 27.83 inHg)


Recon on Igor.
BAD NEWS HERE...

Hurricane IGOR Storm Archive
...NEW HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IGOR... ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 63.6W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

ABOUT 440 MILES S OF BERMUDA AT 11AM
2137. SQUAWK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WTNT01 KNGU 180901
WARNING ATCN MIL 11L NAT 100918082426

2010091806 11L IGOR 041 03 300 10 SATL 060
T000 248N 0625W 095 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T012 262N 0641W 100 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T024 278N 0651W 105 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T036 299N 0653W 100 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 322N 0647W 095 R050 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 250 SE QD 210 SW QD 240 NW QD
T072 385N 0585W 080 R050 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 300 SE QD 270 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 475N 0465W 065
T120 515N 0395W 055
AMP
NNNN
SUBJ: HURRICANE IGOR (11L) WARNING NR 041
1. HURRICANE IGOR (11L) WARNING NR 041
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 24.8N 62.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 62.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.2N 64.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.8N 65.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 29.9N 65.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 32.2N 64.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 38.5N 58.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 47.5N 46.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 51.5N 39.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 62.8W. OR APPROX 1010NM SE OF
NORFOLK. 12FT SEAS: 600NM NE, 540NM SE, 480NM SW, 600NM NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181501Z, 182101Z, 190301Z AND 190901Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
1110090700 128N 189W 25
1110090706 132N 195W 25
1110090712 137N 201W 25
1110090718 140N 211W 25
1110090800 140N 219W 25
1110090806 139N 226W 30
1110090812 138N 233W 40
1110090818 138N 237W 40
1110090900 138N 242W 35
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1110090912 142N 245W 35
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1110091000 153N 274W 30
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1110091512 195N 547W 115
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1110091518 198N 553W 115
1110091518 198N 553W 115
1110091518 198N 553W 115
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1110091600 201N 561W 120
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1110091612 209N 570W 120
1110091612 209N 570W 120
1110091618 214N 578W 115
1110091618 214N 578W 115
1110091618 214N 578W 115
1110091700 218N 584W 115
1110091700 218N 584W 115
1110091700 218N 584W 115
1110091706 222N 591W 110
1110091706 222N 591W 110
1110091706 222N 591W 110
1110091712 228N 599W 100
1110091712 228N 599W 100
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1110091718 234N 607W 95
1110091718 234N 607W 95
1110091718 234N 607W 95
1110091800 243N 615W 95
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1110091800 243N 615W 95
1110091806 248N 625W 95
1110091806 248N 625W 95
1110091806 248N 625W 95



Wow! that is impressive Keep. What the heck does it all mean?
2138. hydrus
Quoting Inactivity:


Appears to have lasted for 4-6 hours so far.
The NCEP has FL getting hit pretty good and then Georgia...Link.
Here's an aerial shot of the Atlantic's shelf / shaded relief below:

2121. txraysfan 3:28 PM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
nhc could mention it but im not seeing anything out of it
How much rain did ya'll end up with Hermine?

about 5 inches
Hi everyone, this is my first post to weather underground. I live southeast of Austin, TX and have been reading the blogs here for the past several weeks. I am a weather enthusiast (almost decided to become a meteorologist) but am now teaching physics and chemistry at a local highschool. My area has been pretty dry all summer and the 5 inches of rain we received from Hermine were a wecome relief from the dry summer. My backyard saw another .5 inches of rain yesterday from a stray thunderstorm that popped up from the moisture coming into south TX from the Karl circulation. We will take all we can get. I am watching with interest the blow-up of convection SE of brownsville this morning.
Quoting RecordSeason:
What was Igor's current IKE number?

What was Igor's maximum IKE number?


Okay, here we go with Igor's 1330z numbers:

IKE for winds greater than TS force: 143 Tj
IKE for winds greater than HU force: 24 Tj
Destructive Potential Rating (0-6) Wind: 2.8, Surge/Waves 5.3*

IOW: Uh-oh.

* - By way of comparison, Katrina and Wilma at their peaks earned a 5.1 on this scale, and Ike earned a 5.2.
Igor rapid scan infrared loop. New images taken approximately every six minutes:

Link
Igor reminds me of Alex,wind speeds are a category lower than the pressure.
2146. SQUAWK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its been removed as per demands from a simple mind i always thought this was jeff masters place but you know

as for what it means its complete info on storm from current info to future info and all the points its travel in between


OK, thanks Keep.
2147. alcomat
Quoting Inactivity:


Appears to have lasted for 4-6 hours so far.
just 20 more hours to go! lol
Quoting atmoaggie:
!?!?!

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/EDIS-89DP3D?OpenDocument

Haiti: Storm surge warning issued for north coast

The Haitian Red Cross has warned communities living along the country's north coast of a potentially dangerous storm surge over the coming days.
...
According to the DPC, the storm surge could be as high as 14 feet (four metres) %u2013 potentially affecting thousands of people who live along the coast. The surge is the result of water being pushed South and South West by Hurricane Igor, which is now heading north up the United States' Atlantic Coast.

atmo: Uhh, I hope that's bullsh.. The storm surge modeler in me says it is. 2 - 4 feet, yeah, maybe. 14 feet?


Wonder if they are confusing wave height or swell with surge.
2149. tkeith
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its been removed as per demands from a simple mind i always thought this was jeff masters place but you know

as for what it means its complete info on storm from current info to future info and all the points its travel in between
The entire track and intensity?
Quoting Inactivity:
Igor reminds me of Alex,wind speeds are a category lower than the pressure.
Me too
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its been removed as per demands from a simple mind i always thought this was jeff masters place but you know

as for what it means its complete info on storm from current info to future info and all the points its travel in between
please........keeper--keep posting your graphics and charts--i always look for them. if anyone else doesn't like it they can hide it! back to lurking!
Quoting TXscienceguy:
Hi everyone, this is my first post to weather underground. I live southeast of Austin, TX and have been reading the blogs here for the past several weeks. I am a weather enthusiast (almost decided to become a meteorologist) but am now teaching physics and chemistry at a local highschool. My area has been pretty dry all summer and the 5 inches of rain we received from Hermine were a wecome relief from the dry summer. My backyard saw another .5 inches of rain yesterday from a stray thunderstorm that popped up from the moisture coming into south TX from the Karl circulation. We will take all we can get. I am watching with interest the blow-up of convection SE of brownsville this morning.
Welcome! I am new to here as well. I mostly read blog-very good info in here.
2153. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yep. Good observation.
The CMC has South Texas or there abouts being threatened with a strong hurricane. If you observe this model closely, you can plainly see that it could be a really bad situation..Link
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Wonder if they are confusing wave height or swell with surge.


Morning nrti. That's what I was was wondering too. Although I can see where a storm of Igors size and stature would be able to "pile" up some water, or essentially create a surge well away from the center.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Wonder if they are confusing wave height or swell with surge.


Don't think so; as I just posted, the current Destructive Potential Rating for Igor's surge and waves is 5.3 (on a scale of 0-6), so 14' is well within the realm of possibility.
Quoting hydrus:
The NCEP has FL getting hit pretty good and then Georgia...Link.


Tropical Depression at the way end of Sept-way begining of Oct.Appears to be a cat 1 at landfall(Even though this is 2 and a half weeks away:)
Quoting txraysfan:
Welcome! I am new to here as well. I mostly read blog-very good info in here.


Welcome aboard to both of you. Been here five years, but still kind of fall in to the "newbie" category myself.

Bar should be lower for a newbie sound bite  The Office - Broke sound bitesBar should be lower for a newbie sound bite
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC has South Texas or there abouts being threatened with a strong hurricane. If you observe this model closely, you can plainly see that it could be a really bad situation..Link


I sure hope this doesn't happen!
Im so bored........... No action for Florida....
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC has South Texas or there abouts being threatened with a strong hurricane. If you observe this model closely, you can plainly see that it could be a really bad situation..Link
With all the rain we've had in south texas, we'll need canoes to leave the house. Since Hermine until yesterday at our house, we've had 15 inches of rain.
What up Stormjunkie????
Quoting hydrus:
After Igor splits, high pressure builds in quickly and low pressure all over the place south of 20 degrees....Link GFS.
....with the kelvin wave approaching the sepac/swcarib region its going to be interesting how many tc's end up advecting north out of that area and where the eastern boundries set up!!!
TxScience you may be getting more rain soon--we have some very heavy rains and wind here in Rockport and Corpus.
Quoting TXscienceguy:
Hi everyone, this is my first post to weather underground. I live southeast of Austin, TX and have been reading the blogs here for the past several weeks. I am a weather enthusiast (almost decided to become a meteorologist) but am now teaching physics and chemistry at a local highschool. My area has been pretty dry all summer and the 5 inches of rain we received from Hermine were a wecome relief from the dry summer. My backyard saw another .5 inches of rain yesterday from a stray thunderstorm that popped up from the moisture coming into south TX from the Karl circulation. We will take all we can get. I am watching with interest the blow-up of convection SE of brownsville this morning.


Welcome aboard!
2168. alcomat
Quoting hydrus:
The GEM still has a good size storm for the Gulf of Mexico . Link
and what a surprise! look where it is going.can you say northern mexico/s.texas ? the pattern for the season...
2169. 7544
morning all the new watch for igor is to see if he could do the loop de loop like the bams are showing and pull another jean

end of sept and all of oct fla needs to watch also for one or more stroms close to home remeber it only takes one and i say 70% for fla stay tunedd
Quoting cctxshirl:
TxScience you may be getting more rain soon--we have some very heavy rains and wind here in Rockport and Corpus.
Am just a little ways from you-Victoria area
Quoting TXscienceguy:
Hi everyone, this is my first post to weather underground. I live southeast of Austin, TX and have been reading the blogs here for the past several weeks. I am a weather enthusiast (almost decided to become a meteorologist) but am now teaching physics and chemistry at a local highschool. My area has been pretty dry all summer and the 5 inches of rain we received from Hermine were a wecome relief from the dry summer. My backyard saw another .5 inches of rain yesterday from a stray thunderstorm that popped up from the moisture coming into south TX from the Karl circulation. We will take all we can get. I am watching with interest the blow-up of convection SE of brownsville this morning.
Welcome
Quoting Neapolitan:


Don't think so; as I just posted, the current Destructive Potential Rating for Igor's surge and waves is 5.3 (on a scale of 0-6), so 14' is well within the realm of possibility.


In Haiti?


I see some turning...not what I wanted to see this morning....go Horns!
Link
Quoting weatherboyfsu:
Im so bored........... No action for Florida....


I believe a Fl threat (or AL, Miss)is coming. Maybe two. October and early November are going to remain very active. The MJO is not looking good for us.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TYPHOON INDAY (FANAPI)
10:45 PM PhST September 18 2010
=============================================

Typhoon "INDAY" has maintained its strength as it approaches eastern Taiwan.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Inday (Fanapi) located at 24.1°N 124.0°E or 430 km northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
This weather disturbance is still far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
I will believe it when I see it. A good ten inches of rain would be great for the central florida area.....



Victoria? You're getting rain right now aren't you? Yesterday and Thursday there were funnel clouds in Kingsville and CC area. Tides are really not high here like I thought they'd be with the storm south of us, however they were higher than normal, but not up to the dunes like they usually are with any storm south of us in the Gulf.
2179. JRRP

Quoting hydrus:
The CMC has South Texas or there abouts being threatened with a strong hurricane. If you observe this model closely, you can plainly see that it could be a really bad situation..Link
Anyway to put that map in motion you know?
Quoting weatherboyfsu:
Im so bored........... No action for Florida....


Obviously you don't have to pay for any damage yourself. Be careful what you wish for. I am eternally grateful for each year we don't get hit.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog Update

Igor barrels towards Bermuda as a high-end category 2 hurricane

Thanks! Nice update :)
Quoting cctxshirl:
Victoria? You're getting rain right now aren't you? Yesterday and Thursday there were funnel clouds in Kingsville and CC area. Tides are really not high here like I thought they'd be with the storm south of us, however they were higher than normal, but not up to the dunes like they usually are with any storm south of us in the Gulf.
Yes-raining again, still? Seems like it hasn't stopped! lol
2184. dmdhdms
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Anyway to put that map in motion you know?


Try this one...controls are at the bottom of the page, scroll down.

Link
2156:

yes.

Since the IKE index is exponential and on powers of 10, a 5.3 is 20.98% stronger than hurricane Ike (5.2,) or 46.91% stronger than Katrina (5.1).

The 143 terrajoules for Igor is 23.28% greater than the 116 terrajoules for hurricane Ike.

The storm surge scale agrees very closely with the actual terrajoules of the respective system.
2186. pcola57
Getting a little windy in Bermuda...cam link
Link
Hamilton is Bermuda's largest city, with a population approximately 1800 residents:

Quoting dmdhdms:


Try this one...controls are at the bottom of the page, scroll down.

Link
Thnx
Anybody want a new avatar? Here's a beautiful image of Hurricane Igor's eye from the International Space Center. The image was taken on September 14, 2010 at 13:56 UTC.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL VIEW
Offshore of S TX, Special Marine Warning:
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ150-170-175-181615-
/O.NEW.KBRO.MA.W.0042.100918T1522Z-100918T1615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1022 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TX TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TX TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER OUT
20 NM.
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1022 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER...59 MILES EAST OF RIO GRANDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 34 KNOTS OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY VESSEL DAMAGE
TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING
956-504-1432.

&&

LAT...LON 2595 9661 2652 9712 2674 9628 2644 9621
2610 9617 2595 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1522Z 145DEG 15KT 2601 9623

$$
2191. MahFL
Lol I read on the Bermuda webcam it was being taken down due to the approach of Igor, I'd have thought that was the last thing you would do.......
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anybody want a new avatar? Here's a beautiful image of Hurricane Igor's eye from the International Space Center. The image was taken on September 14, 2010 at 13:56 UTC.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL VIEW


Wow! that's an amazing picture at full resolution. I sure would like to fly into one of those...
Bermuda webcam. As pcola57 said, "it's gettin' windy!".

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anybody want a new avatar? Here's a beautiful image of Hurricane Igor's eye from the International Space Center. The image was taken on September 14, 2010 at 13:56 UTC.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL VIEW
Whoa...that's breathtaking. That was at the height of his run.
Any thoughts on the GOM blob?
Bad CMC, Bad CMC.



Yesterday we had around 50 mm of rain in a matter of few hours, so we had several landslides on the mountanious areas. And yet we're expecting this weekend around 100 mm more of rain in NE Mexico.

BAD CMC, BAD CMC.
2199. txjac
Post 2196, what does that box mean that pops up by Galveston? Thanks
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Wonder if they are confusing wave height or swell with surge.


I was thinking the same thing. Official surge forecast has nothing for Hispaniola or anywhere near there, wave height are expected to be up.

How's it looking on the north side of PR & DR..anyone been to the beach there today? They should be having a greater impact than Haiti & sooner.
not good
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bermuda webcam. As pcola57 said, "it's gettin' windy!".

Time to cinch her up & hunker down
2205. IKE
114 hour 12Z GFS...

Recon finds a weaker Igor.

000
URNT12 KNHC 181547
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112010
A. 18/15:20:40Z
B. 26 deg 11 min N
063 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2624 m
D. 63 kt
E. 220 deg 34 nm
F. 309 deg 75 kt
G. 220 deg 40 nm
H. 945 mb
I. 12 C / 3046 m
J. 19 C / 3037 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN WSW
M. C80
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IGOR OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 113 KT NE QUAD 15:35:50Z
EYEWALL RAGGED
REMNANT WALL IN NE QUAD
;
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2010 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 26:04:53 N Lon : 63:34:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 954.6mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.7 5.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.6mb

Center Temp : -59.7C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Quoting txjac:
Post 2196, what does that box mean that pops up by Galveston? Thanks

At this point I would watch this very closely, I believe the area of convection is moving slowly NE ward. The NHC has mentioned nothing about this on the TWO, at 8AM EDT today!!
Quoting Bordonaro:


HOLY, I thought that was a tropical system of previous seasons. I think it looks mighty impressive. Why this isn't an invest?????
what is going on in the western gulf ... that is a big convection blob sitting there...
At 120 hours, the system constantly being developed by the GFS begins its genesis in the central Caribbean.

Quoting mtyweatherfan90:


HOLY, I thought that was a tropical system of previous seasons. I think it looks mighty impressive. Why this isn't an invest?????

They claim the main vorticity or area of Low pressure is over land. Looks like this may develop over the next 12 hrs, just keep a close watch.

Understanding all focus is on Igor and Bermuda, but I got the feeling we may have a surprise in the GOM!!!
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC has South Texas or there abouts being threatened with a strong hurricane. If you observe this model closely, you can plainly see that it could be a really bad situation..Link
Yeah...beginning to get an ugly feeling about that as you pointed out.
2215. IKE
Igor looks weaker on IR...

What is the forward speed of Igor? Seems like this storm has been around for 2 months now!
Quoting IKE:
Igor looks weaker on IR...

I wonder what is going on over the western quadrant...looks like its met a brick wall.
Quoting IKE:
Igor looks weaker on IR...

He looks like he can down w/ a virus or something.

Think it's that dry air directly to his west that may be trying to invade his inner-dynamics & giving him that 'weaker' appearance.
Quoting IKE:
Igor looks weaker on IR...



That NW side is really hurting. But I'm not sure "weaker" is the right term. Even if it lost all of it's convection right now, I would think it would take that monster days to spin down? It would also take days for the surge to be brought down. Although Bermuda is about as well positioned to handle the surge as anyone. Island in the middle of nothing, steep shelf and all.
2222. JRRP
94L nice rotation
Link
Possible preview of impact to Bermuda. Buoy appears approx 100mls from center, in RtFront quad.

It would be good to hope this is worse case scenario, but I'm afraid its not.




Link
2224. centex

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


All the pretty colors! j/k

Someone is gonna get hammered in the next couple of weeks :(

Morning Everyone.
2226. alcomat
Quoting tropicfreak:


And turn out to sea, just like nearly every other storm did this season. That or do the usual crossing the yucatan, and hitting mexico.
I agree 100%,mexico/s.texas,or fish storms is the tracks for this season. just look at the next storm in the carribean, the models are developing,can you guess where they have it going?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
That's absolutely terrible. Great way to 'celebrate' your 12,000th post.
2228. pcola57
Quoting IKE:
Igor looks weaker on IR...



That looks like good news for Bermuda..Have to wait and see..Gom "Blob" should have been called an invest in the 8am advisory..IMO
Conditions are ripe and the ramp-up that Karl did was a warning shot for all on the gulf coast..but not for the Mexico...prayers go out to them..
2229. bird72
Quoting StormJunkie:
2198. This is a comments section. Everything from weather, to social aspects of the blog, to football, to photography, to comedy, to gardening, to food, and most any subject in between is discussed here. Mostly weather, but the other stuff is what helps build the bonds with in the community. It has been this way for years, and it's a great system imvho.


And you continue with the shiat, brah, don't you remember last night message from the admi.?
or you are just trolling, man, it's time to mature and move on, you are a good guy with good knowledge about this, give us your best knowledge and forget the other shiat.
Quoting StormJunkie:


That NW side is really hurting. But I'm not sure "weaker" is the right term. Even if it lost all of it's convection right now, I would think it would take that monster days to spin down? It would also take days for the surge to be brought down. Although Bermuda is about as well positioned to handle the surge as anyone. Island in the middle of nothing, steep shelf and all.
Good point. Even if Igor does weaken, the enormous amount of water he amassed during his journey. Surge will unfortuantely still be pretty significant.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
funny how some can talk whatever they want while others are told what thay cannot talk about seems to me you got to much to say about what goes on
on someone elses site go to your own site to enforce your rules this is not your site or your business o i forgot your here cause there is no one there


I'm here cause I enjoy posting here. I've never "threatened" to or "left" this community. I don't expect anyone or everyone to like me. That said, I have a right to be here just as much as anyone else. That is the nature of an open forum.

As for my site, plenty of people visit it. I don't have a blog or forum because there is no point in it. Many sites, including this one, have already done a great job with providing weather hobbyists a place to communicate.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's absolutely terrible. Great way to 'celebrate' your 12,000th post.


Damn lol

Forgot about that.

Was hoping to make it a better one than that...oh well.
Awesome, I uploaded the "eye of Hurricane Igor" to WU and it is already under "very important photos".

Link
New Blog by Masters
2236. help4u
Stormchaser 2006 looks like Sept 26 has highest mjo.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Damn lol

Forgot about that.

Was hoping to make it a better one than that...oh well.
LOL.

NEW BLOG people.
2238. JRRP
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's absolutely terrible. Great way to 'celebrate' your 12,000th post.

lol
2239. pcola57
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wonder what is going on over the western quadrant...looks like its met a brick wall.

I realize that cyclogenisis is an incomplete science...and really thats why i posed the question about the effect Julia may have on Igor to you last night..possibly a watch and learn event for me..
2240. leo305
Igor may be the largest circulation I've ever seen in the atlantic..

the circulation extends all the way to south america/ITCZ in the central atlantic and the eastern carribean, and the central carribean even...

it's very large.. had the conditions been perfect this thing could have grown into a true tip like hurricane.
NEW BLOG!!!
Interesting the GOM...

2243. srada
Invest 94 Statistical Models..there isnt any Dynamic Models yet on the system?

2244. srada
Igor dynamic model..whats up with the different view of the chart Is it because the conus is not in the equation?

Quoting centex:




Wow, that's a respectable convergence and divergence on the GOM blob.
2246. srada


If im correct, a positive NAO means less TC development, so for a brief period at the end of the month, a-ok but starting in Oct, its round two..
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Link please.
BULLETIN:

Either Igor or Julia appears to be on their way to doing the loop dance.