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Karl Joins Julia in the Atlantic; Another Major Typhoon to Clip Taiwan

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:00 PM GMT on September 16, 2016

It was a busy early Friday morning for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, with three storms active at the same time--Ian, Julia and Karl. Late Friday morning, we were down to two named storms, though, thanks to the demise of Tropical Storm Ian in the central Atlantic. Of our two remaining storms, the closer one to land was Tropical Storm Julia, which continued to spin a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. Satellite images on Friday morning showed that Julia continued to struggle with high wind shear, with the low-level center of the storm exposed to view, and the heaviest thunderstorms all to the east of the center. Radar loops from Wilmington, North Carolina showed that Julia’s rains were well offshore. The top winds observed at any offshore buoys on Friday morning were 29 mph, gusting to 36 mph, at buoy 41002, 225 nm south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, at 7:50 am EDT. Storm surge levels along the Southeast U.S. coast at 10:30 am EDT Friday were 1.0’ or less.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Julia.

Forecast for Julia
Julia is embedded in an atmosphere with very dry air (45 - 50% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere) and wind shear is expected to stay high, 20 - 35 knots, through Sunday. These conditions should cause the storm to gradually weaken as it meanders off the coast of South Carolina in an atmosphere with weak steering currents. Two of our top models, the GFS and European, predict that high wind shear and dry air should combine to bring about Julia’s demise by Sunday. However, the UKMET model disagrees, predicting that Julia will survive the hostile conditions this weekend, and re-intensify into a strong tropical storm early next week when the wind shear finally relents. The UKMET model keeps Julia wandering off the coast of South Carolina/North Carolina until at least Thursday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Karl on Friday morning, September 16, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Karl continues west with little change
Tropical Storm Karl formed Thursday evening in the waters of the eastern tropical Atlantic, and was headed west at 13 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands late Friday morning. Steering currents will likely take Karl far enough to the west-northwest by early next week to keep the storm well clear of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but a potential long-range threat to North America or Bermuda cannot be ruled out at this time. Satellite images on Friday morning showed that Karl was well-organized, with a large circulation and plenty of low-level spiral bands, but the center was nearly completely exposed to view due to high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, with the storm’s heavy thunderstorms limited to the northeast side of the center. Karl has marginal conditions for development, with relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 60% and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 27°C (81°F). By Sunday, SSTs will increase to 28°C and wind shear is expected to drop to the low range--less than 10 knots. These conditions favor strengthening. However, the atmosphere surrounding Karl will get drier this weekend, which should slow development.

The track forecast for Karl for the next five days is fairly straightforward, with the steering currents expected to take the storm west, then slightly south of due west, then west-northwest. Karl should clear the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by several hundred miles at the time of its closest approach on Wednesday. As usual, the picture gets pretty murky more than five days into the future. The most probable track painted by the models for Karl a week or more into the future is for the storm to get caught in the steering flow of a strong trough of low pressure passing to its north late next week. This would result in a recurving path for Karl to the north and then northeast, with the storm missing the U.S. East Coast. This is the prediction from about 80% of the 50 members of the 00Z Friday run of the European ensemble forecast, and all 20 members of the 00Z Friday GFS ensemble forecast. In this situation, Bermuda and the Maritime Provinces of Canada might still be at risk from a direct hit, though. The other possibility is that the trough passing to the north of Karl late next week will not be able to capture the storm, and a ridge of high pressure will build in over Karl, forcing it the west or northwest, potentially bringing Karl to a landfall along the U.S. East Coast about ten days from now.

Another African tropical wave may develop early next week
The 00Z Friday runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--had one of them, the UKMET model, predict that a new tropical wave expected to come off the coast of Africa on Friday night to develop into a tropical depression early next week. This storm is expected to take a track more to the west-northwest than Karl, and does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 50%, respectively. By the middle of next week, this storm will encounter a region more hostile for development, with drier air, higher wind shear and cooler SSTs.

Tropical Storm Ian becomes post-tropical
Tropical Storm Ian made the transition to a powerful extratropical storm with 65 mph winds in the central Atlantic on Friday morning. Ex-Ian will pass close to Iceland on Saturday, potentially bringing sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coast.


Figure 3. Enhanced infrared image from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite of Typhoon Malakas at 1430Z (10:30 am EDT) Friday, September 16, 2016.

Category 3 Malakas will brush Taiwan en route to Japan
Just as Super Typhoon Meranti narrowly avoided a direct landfall on the southern tip of Taiwan, it appears that Typhoon Malakas may do the same on the island’s northeast corner, though it will be a very close call. As of 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Friday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center placed Malakas about 300 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, moving northwest at about 14 mph. Malakas has strengthened to Category 3 strength, with top winds now 125 mph and a pinhole eye evident on satellite imagery. JTWC predicts that Malakas will reach Category 4 strength by Saturday local time.

Malakas is in the midst of a classic tropical cyclone recurvature, so its path will gradually arc rightward, hopefully just in time for its center to miss Taiwan on Saturday. The GFS, European, and UKMET track models all bring Malakas within about 50-75 miles of Taiwan’s northeast corner, perhaps close enough to bring heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds to the Taipei area. The typhoon’s stronger east side would likely remain offshore, although it could still impact Japan’s Yaeyama Islands. After it recurves, Malakas will be sweeping to the northeast toward Japan’s main island, Honshu. The 00Z Friday runs of the GFS and European models take Malakas directly over Honshu on Tuesday, as depicted in the JTWC outlook below, while the UKMET model solution is slower and a bit further north. Malakas could arrive as a Category 1 typhoon, merging with the remnants of Meranti and bringing torrential rain that could easily top 10” in some locations (see Figure 5 below).


Figure 4. WU depiction of track forecast for Typhoon Malakas from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as of 8:00 am EDT Friday, September 16.


Figure 5. Accumulated precipitation across eastern Asia from the 06Z Friday run of the GFS model shows the combined effects of Typhoon Malakas and the remnants of Super Typhoon Meranti. Rainfall is shown in millimeters (100 mm = 3.94”). Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

East Pacific: So long, Orlene
After surging to hurricane intensity for a second time on Thursday, Tropical Storm Orlene is now on its last legs. Orlene has been enveloped by very dry air (only 20-25% relative humidity at midlevels), which has more than counteracted any potential boost from light wind shear and marginally warm sea-surface temperatures. By Friday morning, Orlene’s tiny core of showers and thunderstorms had almost completely dissipated. As it drifts westward, Orlene will likely be a remnant low by Sunday, perhaps even sooner.

Invest 93E may threaten the Baja Peninsula next week
A new tropical system, Invest 93E, is taking shape a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco. Thunderstorms remain disorganized within a broad area of low pressure, but 93E will be nourished by a moist atmosphere (RH of 70-80%) and warm SSTs (28-29°C), with only light to moderate wind shear to contend with (10-20 knots). In its tropical outlook issued at 8:00 am EDT Friday, NHC gives 93E a 70% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression by Sunday and a 90% chance by Wednesday. The 00Z and 06Z Friday runs of the GFS model fail to develop 93E, but the European and UKMET models produce a moderately strong tropical storm that parallels the Mexican coast for several days, then potentially arcs toward Baja California and the Southwest U.S. early next week.

We’ll be back with a new post this afternoon on the 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum just reached this week.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update.
GFS has shown Julia making a NE Fl. landfall two runs in a row. Is it a realistic possibility? We got some good rain the last time and could use another good soaking, but no canes.
never mind
Quoting 3. Autistic2:

GFS has shown Julia making a NE Fl. landfall two runs in a row. Is it a realistic possibility? We got some good rain the last time and could use another good soaking, but no canes.


might even get further south imo
Poor Tiawan....

Can they possibly have ANY idea what it is like to have a 'GOOD hair day'....?
thanks for the update - hopefully Karl does become a 'fish' storm...
Interesting to see that Julia is predicted to stick around by the UKMET. Will be watching it to see if it does survive the hostile conditions for when conditions do become more favourable.

Looks like Karl will become a hurricane, possible a powerful one, next week. Hopefully it won't affect Bermuda or the US and go out to sea.

There's so much of the season left still and with the models predicting favourable conditions for October, it looks like the season should end up average-above average in named storms with ACE being near normal (Karl should become a nice little ACE maker).

Last night there were some very loud thunderstorms with lots of rain - a welcome relief from the very hot weather earlier in the week. The thunderstorms caused some flash flooding across parts of the UK unfortuantely. It looks as though things should stay rather settled over the next week or so with temperatures above average. Autumn doesn't look like it's going to set in until October for me.
Shocking: World record 199-mile-long lightning bolt reported

Link
All one needs to know as to Arctic sea ice is that a cruise ship sailed thru the Northwest passage for the first time.


Congrats earth dwellers.

:-P
post 7 i re moved the commit you has i said be for you guys need too learn too check my post be for you quote them has my commits may have changed


on and by the way your going too get bannd for saying bad words wish is not allowed on the blog
Quoting 11. Patrap:

All one needs to know as to Arctic sea ice is that a cruise ship sailed thru the Northwest passage for the first time.


Congrats earth dwellers.

:-P
Was it on purpose? ;)
Bob & Jeff, thanks for the new blog entry.

I know that either or both of you check the comments after posting a new blog, so would you please respond to the many complaints about the current and serious comment posting delay problems?

Periodically - and frequently - new comments are "accepted" and time-stamped properly by the blog system, but don't show up for viewing for anything from a few minutes to several hours. However, "plusses" still register immediately, so it is obvious that the blog is not down or off-line.

Then the new comments start showing up quickly and the system gets back to a short delay - which should really be less than a minute.

There is obviously a serious bug in the software that frequently stops comments from posting for anywhere from a few minutes to several hours.


This is ongoing and a really, really major problem, and an impediment to using this blog as it was intended. The natives are getting restless and discussing the possibility of moving our discussions to blogs with more reliable commenting systems.
Thanks for the update!

Eyes on Karl.
could i please get a mode too banned and re move post 7 for foul language wish is not allowed on the blog at any given time all so modes please noted that i re moved the commit i made has i did not want too start trouble up but some of the bloger on here need too learn too refrash the pages and check too see if i updated or re moved a commit i made
And bring back the wu mail icon too.

I dont savvy having to click the profile icon to then click the mail prompt.

If they did that jus to garner another click hit,your site has strayed far from a community format,to a IBM bad joke recently.

Thanks.


Semper Fi'


Karl going to sea would be nice, but if the dry air keeps it under hurricane strength as it nears the islands, and the way mid-latitude ridging has been for the last few months, an encounter with the US seaboard is definitely a possibility. Lots to watch out for.
Quoting 12. thetwilightzone:

post 7 i re moved the commit you has i said be for you guys need too learn too check my post be for you quote them has my commits may have changed


on and by the way your going too get bannd for saying bad words wish is not allowed on the blog

Don't type something you know will have to be deleted. That is always a good start. Furthermore, why in the world would you say that to begin with? These are highly PROFESSIONAL people you are bad mouthing! I am going to agree with monster here. I am sure you get a lot more crap if everyone that comes on here saw that nonsense that is now deleted.
post 16 read this

rule 13 Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road. wish means if post 7 gets banned you would get banned has well for quoteing some in you sould not be quoteing
Quoting 11. Patrap:

All one needs to know as to Arctic sea ice is that a cruise ship sailed thru the Northwest passage for the first time.


Congrats earth dwellers.

:-P


We've arrived at the 'place' where climate scientists feel obligated to engage in suicide counseling.

Link
Ref post # 7

CHILL
Quoting 16. wadadlian:


This is definitely an "oops" moment. Take it easy


Sorry if I was in the wrong.... but this guy... I mean: C'mon.
Quoting 24. wadadlian:


This is definitely an "oops" moment. Take it easy



Foul language is not allowed in any form..including quoting it.
Cant we all just look at Storm nerds picture and smile.
Kinda makes ya forget about the blog I say LOL

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Not that I care as much as others on here and most certainly the mods/doc, but if you like colorful language in your statements, mail.
Quoting 16. wadadlian:


This is definitely an "oops" moment. Take it easy


Okay.
I yield.

Have a nice day peeps, and Happy Hurricanes!
Quoting 26. MontanaZephyr:



Sorry if I was in the wrong.... but this guy... I mean: C'mon.


You've got mail
I know I'm complaining a lot, but UNLIKE some, I stay polite....
Quoting 21. SecretStormNerd:


Don't type something you know will have to be deleted. That is always a good start.
Quoting 25. Autistic2:

Ref post # 7

CHILL

I don't blame him!! Taz shouldn't have out right disrespected the creator of this whole wunderground we all love. He is always yelling moderator when sometimes he is the one who needs a time out.
Quoting 28. blueyedbiker:

Cant we all just look at Storm nerds picture and smile.
Kinda makes ya forget about the blog I say LOL
Great idea Feel a smile coming on now.
Drs Masters and Henson, many thanks for the update. I also look forward to the discussion of the latest Arctic sea ice minimum (provisional) for this year. Interesting how the early part of the Arctic melt season suggested nothing much would happen in 2016, and then a late change in conditions caused such rapid loss of ice.

With that in mind - how early conditions changed and tipped the season in a more serious direction - If the time permits at some point, it would be interesting to hear your comments on why there has been so much interference in cyclone formation in the Atlantic from dry air, Saharan dust and high wind shear this year. I can't but help be thankful for those factors, which together have made this a much less damaging season - so far - than it might otherwise have been. Whether that luck will hold all the way through to December is anyone's guess. Looking at the record of late major hurricane formation, from early October and into November, I would not myself count on that luck holding.
test? this is getting old
I'm thinking Karl will most likely track northwest of the Lesser Antilles, coming up northward between the U.S. and Bermuda. GFS continues to be the outlier and shows dissipation/weakening, but GFS has not handed Karl well at all - it never even really showed development. If Karl can battle the dry air it could put on a nice intensification show next week in the subtropics since shear is expected to be very low.
Just stopping by to see what's going on, Patrap my husband is an ex-Marine also and he quotes that line to me all the time.
Cussing is not needed on this blog, plus it is a sign of a small vocabulary .
GFS dropped the next storms.
Ever since wunderyakusa left,Aaron,...the site functionality has gone down hill fast.


Sad tale for a community that's 11 years old now.


I mean old folks in Boca can master Wi- Fi......,while IBM can't solve a simple ping c drive issue?


That's odd for such a wealthy high profile weather leader.

:O
Looks like our gulf aoi may be trying to make a run. Spin on SE side covering up.
Any possible way that Julia, or the remnants of Julia, interact with Karl in the long run?
Quoting 27. Patrap:




Foul language is not allowed in any form..including quoting it.


Guess someone needs their safe space.
ignore user button works just fine. ;)
Another nice wave over Africa. Should be getting an X over it in a few days also.
Could Dr. Masters add a blog rule?

Blog members should not act like moderators telling others what they can or can not do. If you do not agree with a comment, flag that comment and let the moderators/administrators deal with the issue.

People in Bermuda will be watching this system closely.
i am forecasting an organization trend with ex 92 until landfall.
One of the things that I/we have noticed in recent seasons on the Atlantic side of things is that we often see very good ITCZ activity (low rider waves) across the Central Atlantic in June and July, start talking about August coming up and how these early waves look, then SAL retreats but the ITCZ then dries out in August and September leaving the few storms that might form in the Central Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles struggling with dry air and very little moisture support from a healthy ITCZ as they start to lift to the North above 10N....................Have seen this happen now to about 8-9 storms in this region over the past 3-4 seasons including this one.

Case in point: wheres the beef (ITCZ)?




Quoting 3. Autistic2:

GFS has shown Julia making a NE Fl. landfall two runs in a row. Is it a realistic possibility? We got some good rain the last time and could use another good soaking, but no canes.


It does not show a landfall, it shows the center being 150 miles offshore.
This is not a Fl landfall.

any ways the recon report on Julia showes they are really not finding march am starting too wounder if Julia is even a storm any more
And this year, we had plenty of rain in the Sahel Region in June and July, which continues at present, but the ITCZ just dries out in the Central Atlantic after leaving the Cabo Verde Islands to the West of 40W and even with no SAL suppression:







Quoting 14. Xulonn:

Bob & Jeff, thanks for the new blog entry.

I know that either or both of you check the comments after posting a new blog, so would you please respond to the many complaints about the current and serious comment posting delay problems?

Periodically - and frequently - new comments are "accepted" and time-stamped properly by the blog system, but don't show up for viewing for anything from a few minutes to several hours. However, "plusses" still register immediately, so it is obvious that the blog is not down or off-line.

Then the new comments start showing up quickly and the system gets back to a short delay - which should really be less than a minute.

There is obviously a serious bug in the software that frequently stops comments from posting for anywhere from a few minutes to several hours.


This is ongoing and a really, really major problem, and an impediment to using this blog as it was intended. The natives are getting restless and discussing the possibility of moving our discussions to blogs with more reliable commenting systems.


Sorry for the trouble; I'll see what can be done longer-term.


Dr. M.
Oh nothing to see here, folks. Carry on. It's just urban warming because there's been such a massive urbanization at Cleveland Airport in the since 2009.


The Euro eventually takes Karl dangerously close to Bermuda as a 938 mbar category 4 storm. Granted, this isn't too likely since it's more than a week ahead, but Karl may not be a fish storm if something like that pans out down the road. It definitely bears watching.
And nothing to see here either. It's perfectly normal when six of the eight hottest years on record have occurred since 2008. Because clearly, there was no urban heat island effect in DC in 1950. It was a little rural enclave.

God forbid the site goes down and you have to interact with your family or friends-the horror!!
And there's absolutely nothing to be seen here. No sort of rapidly accelerating warming trend, right?

When three of the top 6 warmest year-to-date periods have occurred this decade, 4 in the past 11 years, and 8 of top 10 in past 30 years, with records dating to 1860s, it might be time to throw in the white towel.

Quoting 21. SecretStormNerd:


Don't type something you know will have to be deleted. That is always a good start. Furthermore, why in the world would you say that to begin with? These are highly PROFESSIONAL people you are bad mouthing! I am going to agree with monster here. I am sure you get a lot more crap if everyone that comes on here saw that nonsense that is now deleted.


In general, the skill of counting to ten, before posting, learned in Kindergarten:-) has saved me from embarrassment many times. On political blogs I need another order of magnitude or two but this isn't
a political blog and I certainly won't argue politics in this forum.
Quoting 66. Wannabemet:

God forbid the site goes down and you have to interact with your family or friends-the horror!!
You don't know my family, :^)
Quoting 56. MahFL:

This is not a Fl landfall.




I have a lot to learn and don't really understand the models. On the models page of this blog the red GFS line crosses ne Fl. Are there two parts of this model? Where can I read about the gfs?
Quoting 68. ClimateChange:

When three of the top 6 warmest year-to-date periods have occurred this decade, 4 in the past 11 years, and 8 of top 10 in past 30 years, with records dating to 1860s, it might be time to throw in the white towel.




DC area. Of 12 calendar months, six of the warmest have occurred since 2006.

Two of the four warmest calendar seasons have occurred since 2009.

Warmest year was 2012.

I do sometimes wonder what would have happened to global temperatures in 1992 if Mt Pinatubo hadn't erupted.
Things seemed to be running away hotter and hotter in 1991.. just perception.

1992 was our last striking example of volcano winter.. a short dramatic cooling due to a major volcanic eruption.
It's almost to the point where every other year is comparable to the warmest temperatures ever recorded prior to 1990. Give it another fifteen years on this trajectory and I would be willing to bet every single year will be hotter than any year prior to 1990. I'm mean it's already shifted to where a cold year would be relatively normal for mid-20th century readings, a normal year today would be in top 10th percentile, and a warm year is record or near-record breaking.
Sigh.
Everyone have a safe weather weekend; headed out early to Atlanta to celebrate the Wife's B-Day with her family there. September is Hurricane and Football month. With no storms threatening the US at present, enjoy the weekend games, both college and football, and some nicer weather after a few soggy weeks across the South recently between the storms and trofs. See Yall Next Week.
Quoting 72. georgevandenberghe:



DC area. Of 12 calendar months, six of the warmest have occurred since 2006.

Two of the four warmest calendar seasons have occurred since 2009.

Warmest year was 2012.

I do sometimes wonder what would have happened to global temperatures in 1992 if Mt Pinatubo hadn't erupted.
Things seemed to be running away hotter and hotter in 1991.. just perception.

1992 was our last striking example of volcano winter.. a short dramatic cooling due to a major volcanic eruption.


One comment. Yes, 1991 was a warm year as we're some of the other years in the late 80s through mid 90s. Its worth noting, however, that the HO-83 temperature used in the ASOS installments at the time ran from 0.5-1F warmer on average (especially during the daytime). They replaced it with the HO-1088 in the mid-90s to remove the warm bias. If we were still using the HO-83 thermometers, you could probably tack on another 0.5-1F to the present records. Also, many of the old records were taken form LiG-thermometers housed in Stevenson Screens on top of dark rooftops in city centers - yet people complain about UHI today! Clearly, modern ASOS properly sited is a much more reliable method of recording temperatures. What is happening today is the warming is beginning to become so overwhelming that's it making all of these past biases moot. As long as we continue recording temperature in the same manner, I would expect that very soon it will be to the point that every single year will exceed anything ever recorded prior to about 1990. You can see the cognitive dissonance in action, because when these new records are trotted out all the time, people want to say the instruments are broken, not sited properly, etc. When the reality is the opposite - they are sited much better than the pre-1950 records.

Overnight lows have been trending upwards even more dramatically. And probably a more reliable measure, since some of the earlier highs were probably artificially inflated compared to today's readings. Hence, why deniers like to trot out record highs from the 1930s and earlier - not to mention, obviously, that the 30s summertime temps were influenced by the massive Dust Bowl drought.
Perhaps some bloggers can take their conversation over to Dr Rood's blog? Unless I missed something in this current blog, I believe that tropical weather is the only topic of discussion. TIA
Quoting 52. islander101010:

i am forecasting an organization trend with ex 92 until landfall.
its trying to get going. Nice swirly blob of rain of upper Texas coast. Can see it nicely on the Houston radar. Thinking we will get several inches of rain out of this system. I know here in my neighborhood the skies are darkening and you can see rain off to the south and Southeast. Just matter of time before it gets here.
Question:
For post-tropical storm Ian, in what way does the storm's forward speed contribute to the storm's sustained wind speed? I ask because its forward speed of 53 mph is very near its sustained wind speed of 65 mph. Does this suggest that the forward speed is contributing significantly to the wind speed, especially since the tropical storm force winds are limited exclusively to the storm's right side - whereas on the left side there is a significant cancelling effect? Or is the effect minimal? Just curious.


Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Quoting 40. cardinalcyn:

Just stopping by to see what's going on, Patrap my husband is an ex-Marine also and he quotes that line to me all the time.
Cussing is not needed on this blog, plus it is a sign of a small vocabulary .

I have to disagree with the last sentence. Now dont get me wrong, i do not agree with profanity in a public forum such as this ... however "swearing is a sign of a small vocabulary" ??? C'mon now ... EVERYBODY swears ... everyone has that point where no matter the intelligence it just comes out. Filth this and filth that ... dosent make anyone less intellegent or anything of the sort. Usually people that make statements like you have are looking down their nose at the world ... world has enough of those people already.
Karl

Tropical Storm Karl Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop

Funny how not much mention of system off Texas coast....is really pulling in alot of moisture and growing in size and nice structure. I bet if this was off east coast would get alot more attention. It's moving slowly and could dump some heavy rain in areas of Southeast texas and western Louisiana. Looks much better than yesterday and who knows could pull a "julia" and develop last minute along the coast. Lots of showers popping up in and around Houston area.
Bye Bye Ian...the curse of the I remains broken.
#63 Patrap Thanks for the jolt. Wife just went and found the cd from our forgotten library. I love that song.
Quoting 69. georgevandenberghe:



In general, the skill of counting to ten, before posting, learned in Kindergarten:-) has saved me from embarrassment many times. On political blogs I need another order of magnitude or two but this isn't
a political blog and I certainly won't argue politics in this forum.

I have blocked myself from getting involved in any political forum. I would pop my top. I have enough to deal with stress wise. This is the only blogging I partake in.
Quoting 81. hurricaneryan87:


I have to disagree with the last sentence. Now dont get me wrong, i do not agree with profanity in a public forum such as this ... however "swearing is a sign of a small vocabulary" ??? C'mon now ... EVERYBODY swears ... everyone has that point where no matter the intelligence it just comes out. Filth this and filth that ... dosent make anyone less intellegent or anything of the sort. Usually people that make statements like you have are looking down their nose at the world ... world has enough of those people already.
Agree with this.New Euro shows what 2016 is really about....

Quoting 70. AGWcreationists:

You don't know my family, :^)

But I didn't want to do any adulting for a few!

Malakas, WPac, 1730 UTC. (screenshot) - Source : RAMMB-CIRA, Himawari-8.
Quoting 76. ClimateChange:



One comment. Yes, 1991 was a warm year as we're some of the other years in the late 80s through mid 90s. Its worth noting, however, that the HO-83 temperature used in the ASOS installments at the time ran from 0.5-1F warmer on average (especially during the daytime). They replaced it with the HO-1088 in the mid-90s to remove the warm bias. If we were still using the HO-83 thermometers, you could probably tack on another 0.5-1F to the present records. Also, many of the old records were taken form LiG-thermometers housed in Stevenson Screens on top of dark rooftops in city centers - yet people complain about UHI today! Clearly, modern ASOS properly sited is a much more reliable method of recording temperatures. What is happening today is the warming is beginning to become so overwhelming that's it making all of these past biases moot. As long as we continue recording temperature in the same manner, I would expect that very soon it will be to the point that every single year will exceed anything ever recorded prior to about 1990. You can see the cognitive dissonance in action, because when these new records are trotted out all the time, people want to say the instruments are broken, not sited properly, etc. When the reality is the opposite - they are sited much better than the pre-1950 records.

Overnight lows have been trending upwards even more dramatically. And probably a more reliable measure, since some of the earlier highs were probably artificially inflated compared to today's readings. Hence, why deniers like to trot out record highs from the 1930s and earlier - not to mention, obviously, that the 30s summertime temps were influenced by the massive Dust Bowl drought.


Unfortunately I did not write down all of my first corn dates in DC suburban Maryland but I have been growing sweetcorn for 40 years and salient early and late years I do remember. 1991 smashed my record for earliest corn with first ears ready on June 11. My techniques improved and by the mid aughts I was getting corn around June 15-18 most years but June 11 seemed out of reach. Then in 2010, I got my first corn June 8 after a very warm (but not as hot as 1991) May. This record fell again June 6, 2012 after a record warm spring (but not May). June 6 will probably stand for many years.

First corn this year was late because of a cold AND cloudy May and illness in the family, about June 20. Record latest is June 27 in both 1992 and 2003. A rule of thumb 2F warming results in about 5 days change in earliness.

Quoting 81. hurricaneryan87:


I have to disagree with the last sentence. Now dont get me wrong, i do not agree with profanity in a public forum such as this ... however "swearing is a sign of a small vocabulary" ??? C'mon now ... EVERYBODY swears ... everyone has that point where no matter the intelligence it just comes out. Filth this and filth that ... dosent make anyone less intellegent or anything of the sort. Usually people that make statements like you have are looking down their nose at the world ... world has enough of those people already.

ACTUALLY, it has been shown that people who curse are more intelligent. Sometimes, cursing is the only option ;-)
Quoting 23. MontanaZephyr:



We've arrived at the 'place' where climate scientists feel obligated to engage in suicide counseling.

Link


Wow. Can't believe I haven't stumbled upon Guy's blog before. Very depressing, but I tend to agree with his assessment. It takes about 4 times more heat energy to melt ice at 0C than it takes to raise the temperature of the same volume of liquid water from 0C to 20C. It's a fine line between a frozen Arctic and an Arctic Ocean whose summertime surface temperatures approach 20C. I suspect the Arctic will completely melt out in the next 10 years, leading to a massive release of methane from undersea clathrates.

It seems like the popular debate is between conservative scientists ignoring the possibility of the most dire consequences and outright deniers. Guys like Guy (no pun intended) are completely cut out from having a say.
although there is activity in the Atlantic ,it is of little or no interest to the residents of the Lesser Antilles. However that being said,we have to watch two waves over the central and eastern Africa which will come off during the middle and end of next week.These two waves will come at very low latitude and according to the flow pattern which is pointing to an east -west situation the whole of next week into the early part of October., I expect these two waves/disturbances to move west all the way from Africa to the Lesser Antilles. The forecast is for these systems to develop and we could have two cyclones impacting the Caribbean islands towards the latter parf of this month
For such a sheared little storm, Julia is still creating some squally weather and very rough seas for my fishing grounds. Fished yesterday south of Cape Lookout. It was nice early, then we got hit with an outer ban with pouring rain and solid 20 knot east winds that continued all day. After noon a compact southeast swell of 6-10ft came in with a 2-4ft wind chop on top. One of the worst days I've ever spent fishing in the ocean weather wise and I've been in some nasty stuff especially in the winter here. Hopefully, she moves on or dissipates so I can get back to work. Thanks for the update Doc.
Quoting 88. SecretStormNerd:


I have blocked myself from getting involved in any political forum. I would pop my top. I have enough to deal with stress wise. This is the only blogging I partake in.
Same here , Ms Nerd. Every hurricane season I will be lurking here without fail, but during this heinous election cycle, WU has been a welcome haven (mostly ).
Quoting 78. kallenjrtx:

its trying to get going. Nice swirly blob of rain of upper Texas coast. Can see it nicely on the Houston radar. Thinking we will get several inches of rain out of this system. I know here in my neighborhood the skies are darkening and you can see rain off to the south and Southeast. Just matter of time before it gets here.

After that much time in the GOM, I think it ceased to be even an ex92.
100. beell
Quoting 92. georgevandenberghe:



Unfortunately I did not write down all of my first corn dates but I have been growing sweetcorn for 40 years and salient early and late years I do remember. 1991 smashed my record for earliest corn with first ears ready on June 11. My techniques improved and by the mid aughts I was getting corn around June 15-18 most years but June 11 seemed out of reach. Then in 2010, I got my first corn June 8 after a very warm (but not as hot as 1991) May. This record fell again June 6, 2012 after a record warm spring (but not May). June 6 will probably stand for many years.

First corn this year was late because of a cold AND cloudy May and illness in the family, about June 20. Record latest is June 27 in both 1992 and 2003. A rule of thumb 2F warming results in about 5 days change in earliness.




george,

it has been a long time since i had a big ole mess of salient. will it grow in coastal Texas?
;-)
Quoting 80. Patrap:



Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.


I don't trust NOAA. They claim that's it only warmed up a degree or two since pre-Industrial times in the US, when it's clearly warmed at least 5-8 degrees. It's probably warmed a degree or two in the past twenty years. And the models that are initialized to this level of climate sensitivity produce another 10 degrees of warming this century for the CONUS. Imagine if they were based on reality. We'd be talking about a level of warming that would render large tracts of the southern US uninhabitable, and expanding the tropics into southern Canada.
Quoting 67. ClimateChange:

And there's absolutely nothing to be seen here. No sort of rapidly accelerating warming trend, right?




I don't like the way that graph is presented merely because they use such a wide temperature range that the actual increase doesn't seem substantial. The XKCD comic did an excellent representation of the global temperature increase in one of their latest comics on the other hand.
Quoting 102. ClimateChange:



I don't trust NOAA. They claim that's it only warmed up a degree or two since pre-Industrial times in the US, when it's clearly warmed at least 5-8 degrees. It's probably warmed a degree or two in the past twenty years. And the models that are initialized to this level of climate sensitivity produce another 10 degrees of warming this century for the CONUS. Imagine if they were based on reality. We'd be talking about a level of warming that would render large tracts of the southern US uninhabitable, and expanding the tropics into southern Canada.


Note: I'm not predicted Canada to become tropical this century. Hell, if it gets that bad, then Guy is probably right about the whole extinction thing. But, if CO2 somehow reached say 800-1000 ppm, I do believe places around Windsor and Toronto would be tropical. Because that's what the climate record suggests happens at those latitudes when the climate is modified by a large inland lake.
Quoting 99. EmsiNasklug:


After that much time in the GOM, I think it ceased to be even an ex92.
if nothing else should get some decent rains from it. Even though don't really need any. Things are very green here.
Quoting 77. Sangria:

Perhaps some bloggers can take their conversation over to Dr Rood's blog? Unless I missed something in this current blog, I believe that tropical weather is the only topic of discussion. TIA

I beg to disagree. As we get monthly blogs on global temps anomalies and the like, this is also an issue here - and it's definitely better spent blogspace than all the fighting and trolling going on here.
Good evening with a sideglance to Italy and its currently severe weather with a lot of flooding in Tuscany, the area of Rome (Lazio) and then further south:


Cloud top temps in Europe. You see the invasion of pink into Italy. Source for updates.
Surface analysis.

Some of this moisture is heading north towards Germany where a low should severely drench our south tomorrow (right in time for the opening of "Octoberfest" in Munich, btw ;-)
Julia


Click image for loop


110. ackee
Quoting 96. stoormfury:

although there is activity in the Atlantic ,it is of little or no interest to the residents of the Lesser Antilles. However that being said,we have to watch two waves over the central and eastern Africa which will come off during the middle and end of next week.These two waves will come at very low latitude and according to the flow pattern which is pointing to an east -west situation the whole of next week into the early part of October., I expect these two waves/disturbances to move west all the way from Africa to the Lesser Antilles. The forecast is for these systems to develop and we could have two cyclones impacting the Caribbean islands towards the latter parf of this month
GOD Drop the wave in its 12z run
The intensity of Karl will likely depend heavily on how much it can fight off the dry air. The shear and SST environment will likely be very favorable
Quoting 109. Patrap:

Julia


Click image for loop




Maybe Washi is right in that 2016 is the year of the naked swirls...lol
113. beell
RAP's depiction of the surface trough in the gulf still appears fairly accurate. A couple of mid-level speed maxes moving through may be enough to keep this disturbance moving slowly north and provide some forcing for the confection. SE TX may get a little more rain out of this than anticipated.

Quoting 103. kingcounty1:



I don't like the way that graph is presented merely because they use such a wide temperature range that the actual increase doesn't seem substantial. The XKCD comic did an excellent representation of the global temperature increase in one of their latest comics on the other hand.


I agree. I just used it to show that 2016 has been one of the warmest years on record to date, and the warmest years have overwhelmingly occurred since 1990 with their frequency rapidly increasing. I mean if you look closely on that graph you can see for the period 1/1 through 9/15, mean temps near or above 55F used to almost never occur prior to the late 80s. Since the late 80s, they've been occurring every 4 to 6 years and seemingly increasing to every 2-3 years this decade. Also 2014 which was an unusually cold year would have been roughly average prior to 1930.
Quoting 114. ClimateChange:



I agree. I just used it to show that 2016 has been one of the warmest years on record to date, and the warmest years have overwhelmingly occurred since 1990 with their frequency rapidly increasing. I mean if you look closely on that graph you can see for the period 1/1 through 9/15, mean temps near or above 55F used to almost never occur prior to the late 80s. Since the late 80s, they've been occurring every 4 to 6 years and seemingly increasing to every 2-3 years this decade. Also 2014 which was an unusually cold year would have been roughly average prior to 1930.


Don't get me wrong, I understand the graph, and it is pretty informative if you know how to read, but it's more so the casual observer that would misread it and think that temperatures haven't really changed. Put this on a news network and 90% of observers would think that the temperature has hardly to not at all changed.
116. beell




Quoting 96. stoormfury:

although there is activity in the Atlantic ,it is of little or no interest to the residents of the Lesser Antilles. However that being said,we have to watch two waves over the central and eastern Africa which will come off during the middle and end of next week.These two waves will come at very low latitude and according to the flow pattern which is pointing to an east -west situation the whole of next week into the early part of October., I expect these two waves/disturbances to move west all the way from Africa to the Lesser Antilles. The forecast is for these systems to develop and we could have two cyclones impacting the Caribbean islands towards the latter parf of this month


Are you trying to make my day.... *depressed look*

Lindy
more high pressure for the caribbean
Quoting 89. washingtonian115:

Agree with this.New Euro shows what 2016 is really about....


Quoting 103. kingcounty1:



I don't like the way that graph is presented merely because they use such a wide temperature range that the actual increase doesn't seem substantial. The XKCD comic did an excellent representation of the global temperature increase in one of their latest comics on the other hand.

Here's a link to the graphic (which if printed out would be like 4 feet long!) You will need to zoom in on it (at least I don on Chrome)
Link
Quoting 40. cardinalcyn:

Cussing...is a sign of a small vocabulary .
I've heard this before, but it still makes no sense to me; how can using more words be a sign of a smaller vocabulary? At any rate, here--as in most other areas--science has the final word: Taboo word fluency and knowledge of slurs and general pejoratives: deconstructing the poverty-of-vocabulary myth. ;-)

"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
912 AM PDT Fri Sep 16 2016

Recurving Western Pacific Typhoons have invigorated the jet stream across the northern
Pacific. The first piece of energy will arrive Saturday morning.
This wave will bring with it tropical moisture from Typhoon Meranti
with PWAT values exceeding 1.6 inches. Despite the significant
moisture push with this system, have kept QPF towards the lower end
of guidance due to the weak dynamics.

By the time the forcing improves during the day on Sunday, the deeper
moisture will have shifted south of the area towards California. "

Quoting 110. ackee:

GOD Drop the wave in its 12z run


Not the first time.
Quoting 118. 19N81W:

more high pressure for the caribbean



And more dry weather.

All waves (sadly) become fishes, and a couple ones on here bash me because I complain about that.
124. beell
fwiw, I don't think anything of significance will develop....but! There are some similarities between this ripple in the gulf and 2007's Humberto. Both made a slow circumnavigation from the southeastern gulf to the west, although Humberto met up with a much better defined shortwave compared to the present synoptic. Both rode Edit: Along with an east/west boundary to ride towards the ENE

bwahaha, etc.


And poof, gone. Finis Orlene.
Quoting 120. Neapolitan:

I've heard this before, but it still makes no sense to me; how can using more words be a sign of a smaller vocabulary? At any rate, here--as in most other areas--science has the final word: href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/articl e/pii/S038800011400151X" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Taboo word fluency and knowledge of slurs and general pejoratives: deconstructing the poverty-of-vocabulary myth. ;-)




No science here what so ever. Just very subjective experience.
"cursing is just a weak minds way of trying to express itself forcefully."

Yes I have been "weak minded" upon rare occasion. Hammer meet thumbnail.


Short lived ridging. What a change in just 24h... Even Levy didn't anticipated it. Good bye Karl.
Quoting 79. HurrikanEB:

Question:
For post-tropical storm Ian, in what way does the storm's forward speed contribute to the storm's sustained wind speed? I ask because its forward speed of 53 mph is very near its sustained wind speed of 65 mph. Does this suggest that the forward speed is contributing significantly to the wind speed, especially since the tropical storm force winds are limited exclusively to the storm's right side - whereas on the left side there is a significant cancelling effect? Or is the effect minimal? Just curious.


Nope, movement does not matter. Had a band from Colin moving 60mph east towards me. In the end I only got a drizzle, and the atmosphere was quite still.
Quoting 124. beell:

fwiw, I don't think anything of significance will develop....but! There are some similarities between this ripple in the gulf and 2007's Humberto. Both made a slow circumnavigation from the southeastern gulf to the west, although Humberto met up with a much better defined shortwave compared to the present synoptic, and both rode an east/west boundary towards the ENE.

bwahaha, etc.

No cows will be dropped on Texas?
130. beell
Quoting 119. JNFlori30A:


Here's a link to the graphic (which if printed out would be like 4 feet long!) You will need to zoom in on it (at least I don on Chrome)
Link


A 4' long strip with the last little bitty bit showing a significant rise in average global temps. A bit too subtle for the gang-flaggers and/or mods who took it down when it was posted here, lol. With such a wide and varied selection of items worthy of deletion (in my cranky-a** opinion), that one seemed pretty mild.
:)
131. beell
Quoting 129. Greg01:


No cows will be dropped on Texas?


We might have to wait until the May Severe Season!
Quoting 126. Autistic2:



No science here what so ever. Just very subjective experience.
"cursing is just a weak minds way of trying to express itself forcefully."

Yes I have been "weak minded" upon rare occasion. Hammer meet thumbnail.

Would u all (talking about cursing) shut up! Makes me dizzy!
It seems that windshear is starting to drop over Karl now, with convection not displaced so much from the center:



I always forget, but at what point do we start getting frequently updating satellite images? Is it 40W?
Quoting 102. ClimateChange:



I don't trust NOAA.


Then provide your peer-reviewed temperature data set that shows they're wrong. Then are several global surface temperature data sets available, and they're all in good agreement with one another.

Quoting 102. ClimateChange:
They claim that's it only warmed up a degree or two since pre-Industrial times in the US, when it's clearly warmed at least 5-8 degrees.


First, when talking about temperature you should make sure you state which scale you're using. :)

Second, no it hasn't. An increase by that much over that timescale would demand that the forcing from additional CO2 be far greater than what has been determined by research. Not only that, but the changes induced by that much additional energy over that short a timescale in the climate system would have been truly catastrophic.

Quoting 102. ClimateChange:
It's probably warmed a degree or two in the past twenty years.


By way of increased emissions, warming has accelerated but not by the amounts you propose. Keep in mind that greenhouse gas molecules have physical properties that determine their forcing, and these have been pretty well established. Your claims would indicate that the forcings are much higher, which neither matches the molecular properties of said gases nor observations.

Quoting 102. ClimateChange:
And the models that are initialized to this level of climate sensitivity produce another 10 degrees of warming this century for the CONUS.


That is beyond even the worst case high sensitivity ensemble mean, which is 4.5C (8.1F) . Cherry picking the worst case outlier to support your claims is just as bad as deniers cherry picking the best case outlier to support theirs. The current best mean for the "business as usual" case is about 3C (5.4F).

The current projections backed by the best research are bad enough as is.

Quoting 102. ClimateChange:
Imagine if they were based on reality. We'd be talking about a level of warming that would render large tracts of the southern US uninhabitable, and expanding the tropics into southern Canada.


The models are based on reality. You're perceptions aren't. Dr. Rood put together a free book on climate models, the science, and how they work. In addition there are numerous other scientific sources which you can read to gain a better understanding of the climate system.

Don't make the same mistakes as deniers, basing arguments on hyperbole and personal beliefs. There is more than enough solid scientific research to base your arguments on.
Quoting 134. Xyrus2000:



Then provide your peer-reviewed temperature data set that shows they're wrong. Then are several global surface temperature data sets available, and they're all in good agreement with one another.



First, when talking about temperature you should make sure you state which scale you're using. :)

Second, no it hasn't. An increase by that much over that timescale would demand that the forcing from additional CO2 be far greater than what has been determined by research. Not only that, but the changes induced by that much additional energy over that short a timescale in the climate system would have been truly catastrophic.



By way of increased emissions, warming has accelerated but not by the amounts you propose. Keep in mind that greenhouse gas molecules have physical properties that determine their forcing, and these have been pretty well established. Your claims would indicate that the forcings are much higher, which neither matches the molecular properties of said gases nor observations.



That is beyond even the worst case high sensitivity ensemble mean, which is 4.5C (8.1F) . Cherry picking the worst case outlier to support your claims is just as bad as deniers cherry picking the best case outlier to support theirs. The current best mean for the "business as usual" case is about 3C (5.4F).

The current projections backed by the best research are bad enough as is.



The models are based on reality. You're perceptions aren't. Dr. Rood put together a free book on climate models, the science, and how they work. In addition there are numerous other scientific sources which you can read to gain a better understanding of the climate system.

Don't make the same mistakes as deniers, basing arguments on hyperbole and personal beliefs. There is more than enough solid scientific research to base your arguments on.


I'm using Fahrenheit and only talking about regional U.S. temperatures (midwest and northeast), not global temperatures. It's clearly warmed 5-8 degrees since the 1850s - that's what the data shows. The linear trend removes a lot of the warming because for the first 20 years the bulk of the average temperatures fall below the trend line and for the last 20 years the bulk of the average temperatures are above the trend line. There hasn't been a linear trend in temperature. It's been gradually expanding. Also the 10 degree increase this century was in Fahrenheit. The 8.1F increase you cited is globally - for the CONUS alone that would correspond to 10F+.
A few more degrees south and the center of Julia will be east of Florida...

So ya'll i got a question ... little off topic ... but whatever happened to the "subtropical" storm north of Spain?? Were there any wind reports at "landfall" or anything of note??? Weather anomalies fascinate me and i cant seem to find any data or info on it anywhere ...
julia wants to come back to e cen fl. shes a swamp rat. coastal areas might get some showers from her outerbands tonight.
Quoting 128. isothunder67:



Nope, movement does not matter. Had a band from Colin moving 60mph east towards me. In the end I only got a drizzle, and the atmosphere was quite still.


That's most likely because the precipitation wasn't heavy enough ("only got a drizzle") to bring the winds down to the surface. A storm/squall moving at 60 mph with heavy rain should definitely produce a significant gust front with high winds.
Quoting 136. GeoffreyWPB:

A few more degrees south and the center of Julia will be east of Florida...




Shocking!!
Quoting 133. Envoirment:

It seems that windshear is starting to drop over Karl now, with convection not displaced so much from the center:



I always forget, but at what point do we start getting frequently updating satellite images? Is it 40W?
???
Quoting 11. Patrap:

All one needs to know as to Arctic sea ice is that a cruise ship sailed thru the Northwest passage for the first time.


Congrats earth dwellers.

:-P


I find it interesting that you always write these little self-righteous blurbs in such a way to suggest that you have no responsibility in this.
Remember, these models are currently base on a stronger system. If it misses the trough and the high builds back in, the system would begin moving back west. How high north it will move, will depend on where on the east coast would be the most vulnerable.

Quoting 137. hurricaneryan87:

So ya'll i got a question ... little off topic ... but whatever happened to the "subtropical" storm north of Spain?? Were there any wind reports at "landfall" or anything of note??? Weather anomalies fascinate me and i cant seem to find any data or info on it anywhere ...

It's reforming in Mediterranean.
TS Karl...

Quoting 135. ClimateChange:



I'm using Fahrenheit and only talking about regional U.S. temperatures (midwest and northeast), not global temperatures. It's clearly warmed 5-8 degrees since the 1850s - that's what the data shows. The linear trend removes a lot of the warming because for the first 20 years the bulk of the average temperatures fall below the trend line and for the last 20 years the bulk of the average temperatures are above the trend line. There hasn't been a linear trend in temperature. It's been gradually expanding. Also the 10 degree increase this century was in Fahrenheit. The 8.1F increase you cited is globally - for the CONUS alone that would correspond to 10F+.


Remember warming in the northern US will far exceed the global mean. So even 5.4F of global warming would correspond to probably 7-10 degrees F of warming in the northern CONUS.

My point about past warming is that the data are flawed. It's a lot easier to register readings that are higher than reality, than to register cold readings. And we have inflated past temperatures compared to the present, because we aren't comparing apples-to-apples. We've only adjusted for a few things, i.e. TOBS and switch to MMTS. But the adjustments aren't enough in magnitude. Watts and Heller are correct, but they are correct for the wrong reasons. The reality is the past was colder than reflected in the popularized data, not warmer. Look not at the temperature, but phenological observations, reports of frost and snow, ice coverage, etc. The changes we have seen are not possible with 1-2F of warming. Either the farmers were lying back then, or its much worse than we believe.

GISS and NCDC both begin in 1895, yet the climate had already warmed considerably by this time. Look at the old pioneer records, and read some of the reports even predating any systematic weather recording. This is why the skeptic-backed BEST actually shows more land warming than the existing records, and even they are likely underestimating the trend. BEST makes no adjustments, instead each known site or instrumentation change creates a new separate station, instead of fudging things together with adjustments.

Look at the records from Lansing. In the 1860s, mean annual temps are clustered around 43-44F. Today, they are 49-51F. How is that 1 degree of warming? To find average temperatures that low today, you would need to go to Marquette, MI. Climate bands have shifted north at least 200 miles.
Quoting 133. Envoirment:

It seems that windshear is starting to drop over Karl now, with convection not displaced so much from the center:



I always forget, but at what point do we start getting frequently updating satellite images? Is it 40W?
That looks like the frequently updating satellite imagery to me. ;)
Seems like she is dropping further south more quickly than previously thought.
Quoting 136. GeoffreyWPB:

A few more degrees south and the center of Julia will be east of Florida...


Quoting 142. LouisPasteur:



I find it interesting that you always write these little self-righteous blurbs in such a way to suggest that you have no responsibility in this.

Ooooo, dem's fight'n words, this could get interesting. I got my popcorn.
Quoting 142. LouisPasteur:



I find it interesting that you always write these little self-righteous blurbs in such a way to suggest that you have no responsibility in this.
And I find it interesting that anyone could possibly think Pat was excluding himself from the group known as 'earth dwellers".
Quoting 140. Grothar:



Shocking!!
Nakey is Good!
Luxury comes at a price, sadly it looks like my children will be paying the price.
Quoting 137. hurricaneryan87:

So ya'll i got a question ... little off topic ... but whatever happened to the "subtropical" storm north of Spain?? Were there any wind reports at "landfall" or anything of note??? Weather anomalies fascinate me and i cant seem to find any data or info on it anywhere ...

Check 999's blog.
Quoting 23. MontanaZephyr:



We've arrived at the 'place' where climate scientists feel obligated to engage in suicide counseling.

Link


Wish you wouldn't have posted this link. I'm way too deep in the rabbit hole now.
Quoting 142. LouisPasteur:



I find it interesting that you always write these little self-righteous blurbs in such a way to suggest that you have no responsibility in this.


Oh yes. We're all responsible by virtue of us having been born into this reality. No need to point fingers.
Quoting 155. Patrap:

Welcome to the Anthropocene


The Anthropocene began 200+ years ago. Might as well give it the ceremonial start date of 1776.
Quoting 142. LouisPasteur:



I find it interesting that you always write these little self-righteous blurbs in such a way to suggest that you have no responsibility in this.


Spot on. He and the others all took the same class.
Quoting 145. Grothar:




If it does get this strong , I sure hope it finds an escape route north.
Quoting 143. Grothar:

Remember, these models are currently base on a stronger system. If it misses the trough and the high builds back in, the system would begin moving back west. How high north it will move, will depend on where on the east coast would be the most vulnerable.





Just looking at that set up on the 24th. If that high were to plant itself just north of Bermuda for a couple days added to that semi strong low coming in to the west. Karl could zip north extremely fast. I'm going to be a good boy and just kinda impatiently wait until next week to say much but sometimes it's hard not to lol.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 137. hurricaneryan87:

So ya'll i got a question ... little off topic ... but whatever happened to the "subtropical" storm north of Spain?? Were there any wind reports at "landfall" or anything of note??? Weather anomalies fascinate me and i cant seem to find any data or info on it anywhere ...

Steph or Stephanie made landfall on the north coast of Spain about where the boarder with France is. Lots of rain up to 3 inches in places.
Steph then tracked across the tops of the Pyrenees mountains into the Mediterranean a bit south of Barcelona and caused lots of extreme wetness and some flooding.
Steph is now supposed to be heading to the north of Italy.

Here in the south of Spain the weather is warm 24/C rising to 30/C tomorrow and with clear sapphire blue skies and no wind. Nothing to complain about as usual but we have had a few showers since April but nothing to settle the dust much.

Just wondering off topic of course. What does "Xyrus2000" do when not writing on the blog? Amazing responses as always to some posts on here!
PlazaRed at 25/C just south of Seville Spain.
A while back the oldest living woman, (100 and something) was asked what was the most important advancement to man during her life, she responded; "Air conditioning."
Quoting 142. LouisPasteur:



I find it interesting that you always write these little self-righteous blurbs in such a way to suggest that you have no responsibility in this.
I have been around the blog since Katrina and have seen a lot of Patraps comments. Not sure where you are pulling from in making this inaccurate and mean-spirited statement but I would suggest that you be more responsible in your accusations. Shalom.
Quoting 142. LouisPasteur:



I find it interesting that you always write these little self-righteous blurbs in such a way to suggest that you have no responsibility in this.
This is also the same person that brought up my children and parenting skills over a football team.Now back to the weather.


I wonder if she's trying to get to the Goldilocks Zone just south of 30. That would be something.
Quoting 100. beell:



george,

it has been a long time since i had a big ole mess of salient. will it grow in coastal Texas?
;-)



I've grown sweet corn in Tallahassee. Houston issues should be similar. South of there I don't know.

In Tallahassee I planted in mid March and got first corn around Memorial day. Subsequent plantings did well until the late May ones which matured in late July (faster than on the seed pack because of temps). After that, a combination of hot nights, short days and bugs ruined the crops but even without the bugs I don't think they would have produced. In Fall by the time temperatures cooled, in October) to corn's optimum in the mid 80s days and low 60s nights, the days were too short for the varieties we grow in the U.S which are adapted to long summer days north of 35N. I was doing graduate work towards a Met MS at FSU (May 1987) and did not look further into it. Temperatures in TLH normally cool to below optimal for corn by mid November and first freeze is also about that time ending the season of even attempting it.
warning warning the climate change freaks are out in force...give it a break!

If Karl does become a Hurricane, could it run into Florida?
Quoting 163. SunnyDaysFla:



If it does get this strong , I sure hope it finds an escape route north.


This is based on a strong system getting pulled north by the trough. Not written in stone. Karl looking a little peaked today.

i think all of us that lives in the deep south and florida in particular should keep their eyes on julia because it seems that she dropping south a tad faster than forecast ed by folks of the NHC
Quoting 171. Tampa969mlb:

warning warning the climate change freaks are out in force...give it a break!

“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”
Thanks for the update. Interesting season with more dry air in the Atlantic causing lackluster storms, which is good. However Julia provided moisture in ECF and welcomed.
and im sure they dont use gasoline, eletric for their house, or buy products from china or the far east where we all know about their pollution, yea right, if you believe that let me tell you bout a bridge i have for sale...
Quoting 173. Grothar:



This is based on a strong system getting pulled north by the trough. Not written in stone. Karl looking a little peaked today.




yep i dont think going out too sea is going too plan out





Karl may even open up too a wave we should no more by sunday on what happens
Quoting 175. washingaway:


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”
no, i believe its real, just not real important. isis, the economy, healthcare, are more important. with the technology revolution im sure the problim will be solved.
Julia holding at 40mph

TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...JULIA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS OFF OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 75.7W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Quoting 172. Icybubba:


If Karl does become a Hurricane, could it run into Florida?
He would have to stay weak to be able to maintain westward motion sufficient to reach that far.
Orlene down to 40mph
TROPICAL STORM ORLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...ORLENE WEAKENING AND COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 126.7W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Quoting 171. Tampa969mlb:

warning warning the climate change freaks are out in force...give it a break!

well
so you want too see
a climate change freak
lets do this
Karl holding at 45mph
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

...KARL FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 35.6W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Quoting 181. JNFlori30A:

He would have to stay weak to be able to maintain westward motion sufficient to reach that far.


Hey, JN!. A system does not necessarily move north if it is strong. It depends on how strong the ridge of high pressure will be. It would appear that if the system misses the trough expected around 55-65 deg, and the ridge moves back west, it would move anything west. Now if there is any weakness in the ridge, a stronger system would most likely move towards it.

Quoting 183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Sort of looks like that's it for now in the Arctic Keep but down in the Antarctic things are looking really wet on the melting front. A proper nose dive in too the new melt season.
Might get a few surprises out of the Antarctic this year even if no major ice sheets breaks calve.
Karl

Quoting 179. Tampa969mlb:

no, i believe its real, just not real important. isis, the economy, healthcare, are more important. with the technology revolution im sure the problim will be solved.

Well I don't know about you, but I have never left my house worrying that I was going to be killed by ISIS, never. The economy has improved, if you haven't notice we are no longer in a recession, and more Americans now have healthcare. Now that doesn't mean that it can't be improved on. I got it though, the solution to climate change is climate controlled condos. Problem solved.
What kind of blog was it??




The exploding kind!!!
Quoting 170. georgevandenberghe:



I've grown sweet corn in Tallahassee. Houston issues should be similar. South of there I don't know.

In Tallahassee I planted in mid March and got first corn around Memorial day. Subsequent plantings did well until the late May ones which matured in late July (faster than on the seed pack because of temps). After that, a combination of hot nights, short days and bugs ruined the crops but even without the bugs I don't think they would have produced. In Fall by the time temperatures cooled, in October) to corn's optimum in the mid 80s days and low 60s nights, the days were too short for the varieties we grow in the U.S which are adapted to long summer days north of 35N. I was doing graduate work towards a Met MS at FSU (May 1987) and did not look further into it. Temperatures in TLH normally cool to below optimal for corn by mid November and first freeze is also about that time ending the season of even attempting it.


It's like an OR problem.
Quoting 150. Patrap:


That looks like it could develop.
🌞🌊🌍🌅🌉🌝



Crystal Cruise Ship Completes Historic Northwest Passage Arctic Journey
September 16, 2016


(2:30 p.m. EDT) -- Early this morning, Crystal Cruises' Crystal Serenity sailed into New York City to a spectacular sunrise welcome, completing its historic 32-day Northwest Passage journey. The ship became the largest passenger vessel to sail the icy Arctic waters of Canada.

The trip from Anchorage to New York, via the Canadian Arctic and Greenland, had been considered controversial by some, given that the route has traditionally been blocked with ice (a fear that has lessened due to global warming). Canada's version of the Coast Guard, along the U.S., held safety drills and ran through emergency scenarios, in case the 1,070-passenger ship would have to be evacuated.

Passengers and crew agree that the journey went off without a hitch. "The voyage was very successful, and there were no surprises," says Captain Birger J. Vorland. "There was actually less ice than we anticipated." He credited the three years of intense planning that went into the trip, and the expertise of the expedition team on the Ernest Shackleton, an ice-class vessel that accompanied the cruise ship.

"Crystal thought of everything and it couldn't have been better," agreed Nancy Morris, a seasoned world cruiser from Sarasota, Florida.

Inuit Dancers from Ulukhaktok
An Incredible Trip of Firsts

At Pier 88 in New York, travelers spoke of the air of excitement that permeated the entire cruise, from the first day to the last. Both passengers and crew felt they were part of something special, a voyage of firsts.

"I never felt the enthusiasm wane," said Vorland. "Everything clicked. I never experienced an atmosphere like this before in my 38 years at sea." Passengers checked everything off their Arctic wish lists: polar bears, ice, the Northern Lights.

The Zodiac outings were a particular highlight. Jeff Fischer from San Jose, California, said the ship ran Zodiac tours for seven hours the first day the ship encountered polar bears. With 1,000 passengers onboard and Zodiacs that carry 10, the ship made the effort to get everyone out to see the sights. "On one excursion, we were surrounded by humpback whales, spouting and blowing -- it was wonderful," he said. A Zodiac of crewmembers would pull up alongside to offer hot chocolate and coffee

Another highlight were the community visits -- and bringing villagers onboard. Morris enjoyed learning about the locals' way of life, how they got food, oil and clothing from hunted seals and only got one shipment of supplies per year. To prepare, Crystal outlined a code of conduct for passengers as to how to behave in the villages: no photos without asking, no buying of staples from the limited local supply. Crystal donated money and supplies to the local communities, and invited residents onboard. According to Morris, local children got to eat in the Lido buffet and sample the Ben and Jerry's ice cream bar -- their first-ever ice cream.

In addition, Crystal had geologists, biologists, naturalists and professional photographers onboard to give lectures, accompany tours and interact with passengers.

Arctic Ice in Victoria Strait
Safety First

Safety was clearly the first priority on this trip. "My number one job is to keep everyone safe," said Captain Vorland. He said the toughest challenge was actually uncertainty. He knew it was supposed to be a "good" ice year (i.e. little ice), but the concern remained until the ship was actually sailing the Northwest Passage and finding not much ice at all. Still, "we always had to keep our guard up," he said, "and I was very happy when we docked here at Pier 88 [in New York]."

Passengers felt safe, as well. Fischer described how the Ernest Shackleton had sailed in from the east, checking the passages ahead of Serenity's transit. His wife Peggy said, "When I looked out our veranda, I felt like the Shackleton was our guide dog because it's such a little ship and we were so big. It made me feel safe." She spoke of a day when kayaking got canceled because the conditions were not safe. "The crew watched out for us," she said.

Morris agreed. "We never felt nervous," she said. "Crystal was prepared for everything."

Only one stop was rendered impossible by ice, and that was in Greenland. Captain Vorland said he stopped the ship at the edge of the ice floes and ran a few Zodiac scenic cruises instead, but when the wind picked up, he had to call those back and cancel the rest of the outings. "No matter how exciting it gets, we have to keep safety in mind," he said.

Polar Bear along Northwest Passage
Lessons Learned

Crystal Serenity will sail the Northwest Passage again in summer 2017. According to Captain Vorland, "next year, the basics are exactly the same. We have a minor list of lessons learned" because the team was so well prepared for this year's cruise.

The Fischers applauded Crystal's packing list, and were "overwhelmed" by the many things Crystal provided, like binoculars, a warm parka and hat (that passengers can take home). They also mentioned the recommended reading list, and said that reading up on the area and being prepared really enhanced the voyage. Even with the packing list, Morris wished she had brought some warmer socks.

Both couples commended Crystal on all they did for passengers with mobility issues who did not or could not get off the ship. A video camera onboard the ship broadcast the images of the villages, the ice and the animal sightings on large-screen TVs in the Palm Court, as well as inside cabins, so onboard passengers could share in the off-ship experiences. The line also brought locals onboard to speak and to perform, so everyone could experience the communities of the Northwest Passage.

Now that Crystal Serenity has successfully -- and safely -- sailed the Northwest Passage, the remaining cabins on the 2017 voyage are likely to fill up quickly. For all those who are tempted, Morris says, "Make your reservations right away." Jeff Fischer says, "I would do it again in a heartbeat."
Quoting 175. washingaway:


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”

At first took it as: there are two ways to be flooded.
Quoting 191. Grothar:

What kind of blog was it??




The exploding kind!!!


Dreyfus: MINKEY??? You said MINKEY!!!
Clouseau: Yes... a Chimpanzee Minkey
Quoting 175. washingaway:


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”


"It's easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled." - Mark Twain
Quoting 190. washingaway:


Well I don't know about you, but I have never left my house worrying that I was going to be killed by ISIS, never. The economy has improved, if you haven't notice we are no longer in a recession, and more Americans now have healthcare. Now that doesn't mean that it can't be improved on. I got it though, the solution to climate change is climate controlled condos. Problem solved.
please, condos, really..i mean they will be able to solve it with science. when im in florida i dont worry to much about an isis, however in new york or europe i am concerned.


..IAN ROCKETING NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 16
Location: 48.8°N 36.2°W
Moving: NE at 53 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Quoting 184. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


well
so you want too see
a climate change freak
lets do this
Global Warming is real, but scaremongering about Global Warming is also not fake.
There are people saying Sea Levels will rise 10m by the end of the century, or that Boston will have the climate of Miami by 2100, and other things that are blatantly false.
Quoting 199. Tampa969mlb:

please, condos, really..i mean they will be able to solve it with science. when im in florida i dont worry to much about an isis, however in new york or europe i am concerned.

I worry that I will be killed by someone playing Pokemon while driving. As for as climate change, it would seem to me that you want to just kick the can down the road and let the next generation figure out how to fix the miss we left them with.
Here is a quote from the NHC 5:00 PM Discussion on Julia:
"In the next day or so, the cyclone should be steered toward the southwest and west by the low-level ridge to the north."

The "5:00 PM" coordinates are 30.8N & 75.7 W. It is currently 30.5N & 76.00 West (5:30 PM EST). The NHC graphics shows a slight SW dip which Julia has now passed followed by NW path followed by dissipation. It looks to be moving faster than predicted. Unless Julia stalls right now it looks like a busted forecast.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


National Weather Service New Orleans la 
415 PM CDT Friday Sep 16 2016

Synopsis...

Latest surface analysis continue to show the ridge axis from
northeast Continental U.S. To northeast Gulf, more or less between Julia and
broad area of low pressure over west Gulf/Texas coast.
Precipitable water plots showed a moisture axis from central
Florida to southeast Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast with
values between 2 and 2.2 inches. Dry air was located from the mid
Atlantic states to central Alabama with values between 1.25 and
1.5 inches. Upper air analysis a weak ridge axis from Baja
California to Florida. Southwest flow was present from southwest
Continental U.S. To Great Lakes and positively tilted trough axis from
Minnesota to Southern California.

&&

Short range...

Julia will continue to meander off the East Coast. Dry air on the
west side of the associated circulation will continue to retreat
away from the forecast area. The weak flow around the broad low
over the west Gulf will advect in deep moisture through the
weekend. Occasional lightning strikes have occurred with activity
over the last few days. Cape values were 2400 j/kg this morning
with convt around 84. Therefore, convection will start early again
Saturday morning with pretty good coverage by noon. No surface focus
or strong lift for widespread thunderstorms, will highlight more
showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms for Saturday and
Sunday. With the main trough pressing southeast, a large area of
marginal risk of heavy rainfall from the lower Mississippi Valley
to Ohio Valley, a general amount 1 to 3 inches is possible through
Monday with higher amounts around Lake Pontchartrain and
Mississippi coast.

Long range...

The main trough axis will continue to press east to the mid
Mississippi Valley by late Sunday with surface push over the Ohio
and mid Mississippi Valley. This feature along with the frontal
zone will maintain a chance of rain on Monday, a few strong storms
with gusty winds are possible across the north half of the
forecast Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Dry air in mid layer
will push south across the forecast area early Tuesday with pw
values to 1 inch. No real height falls and slightly cooler night
time temps across the north half forecast next week will be
attributed to dry air. We will take any cooling. Moisture from
will surge back from the east by Thursday bringing back a chance
rain for Thursday and Friday.

Quoting 204. GainesvilleGator:

Here is a quote from the NHC 5:00 PM Discussion on Julia:
"In the next day or so, the cyclone should be steered toward the southwest and west by the low-level ridge to the north."

The "5:00 PM" coordinates are 30.8N & 75.7 W. It is currently 30.5N & 76.00 West (5:30 PM EST). The NHC graphics shows a slight SW dip which Julia has now passed followed by NW path followed by dissipation. It looks to be moving faster than predicted. Unless Julia stalls right now it looks like a busted forecast.


They did a terrible job with this storm the entire time. Just one of those ones in a few that doesn't just test them but utterly destroys them.
Quoting 207. George1938:



They did a terrible job with this storm the entire time. Just one of those ones in a few that doesn't just test them but utterly destroys them.
"Utterly destroys them"? Because they've all along predicted the storm to be a sheared mess meandering off the Carolina coast for many days, and they have been very clear in stating that forecast uncertainty was high?

"Utterly destroys them"? Really?
Quoting 171. Tampa969mlb:

warning warning the climate change freaks are out in force...give it a break!
Just put them on your special list. I just wish one of these storms would really intensify into a cat 4 or 5. Would be nice to see a strong storm in the Atlantic again.
210. vis0

Quoting 162. luvtogolf:



In trying to see who "+" it, i hit plus ...calling sister Beatrice of the "Holy, How" convent to smack my figures that are over the desks edge with a ruler so i'm more careful in hovering my mouse
211. vis0

Quoting 162. luvtogolf:



In trying to see who "+" it, i hit plus ...calling sister Beatrice of the "Holy, How" convent to smack my figures that are over the desks edge with a ruler so i'm more careful in hovering my mouse
bye karl