WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Karl hits the Yucatan; two simultaneous Cat 4s in the Atlantic for 2nd time in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:37 PM GMT on September 15, 2010

The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the simultaneous presence of two Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has formed. The only years more active this early in the season were 2005, 1995, 1936 and 1933. This morning's unexpected intensification of Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far east. When one considers that earlier this year, Hurricane Earl became the fourth strongest hurricane so far north, it appears that this year's record SSTs have significantly expanded the area over which major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic. This morning is just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. Julia's ascension to Category 4 status makes it the 4th Category 4 storm of the year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999), so 2010 ranks in 3rd place in this statistic. This year is also the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on today's date in 1999.) We've also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beats the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999, 24 days (thanks to Phil Klozbach of CSU for this stat.)


Figure 1. A rare double feature: two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, for only the second time in recorded history.

Karl
Tropical Storm Karl made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds and a central pressure of 991 mb at 8:45am EDT this morning on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, just north of the Belize border. Karl took advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification, and in just fifteen hours intensified from a tropical disturbance to a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Had Karl managed to get its act together just one day earlier, it could have been a major hurricane at landfall this morning. Fortunately, Karl has a relatively small area of strong winds--tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles from the center of the storm, and wind damage is not the main concern. Heavy rains are the main concern, and Belize radar shows heavy rain bands from Karl spreading ashore over northern Belize near the border with Mexico. Cancun radar shows that heavy rains are relatively limited, though, near the tourist havens of Cancun and Cozumel.


Figure 2. Radar image of Karl at landfall this morning near the northern Belize/Mexican border. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Karl
Karl will traverse the Yucatan Peninsula today and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche Thursday morning as a much weakened tropical storm, with perhaps 40 - 45 mph top winds. Once in the Gulf, conditions for intensification are ideal, with wind shear is expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs will be warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico on Saturday morning. However, since Karl is a small storm, it is possible that passage over the Yucatan will disrupt the storm enough so that it will be much weaker. The ridge of high pressure steering Karl westwards is quite strong, and it is very unlikely that the storm will turn northwest and hit Texas. NHC is giving Brownsville, Texas, an 10% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph.

Igor
Hurricane Igor put on a burst of intensification last night to put it at its strongest yet, a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds. Igor has weakened slightly this morning, but remains a formidable presence in the Central Atlantic with its 145 mph winds. Igor continues to show the classic appearance of a major hurricane on satellite imagery, with a well-formed eye, symmetrical cloud pattern, plenty of low-level spiral bands, and solid upper-level outflow on all sides.


Figure 3. Hurricane Igor as captured at 18 UTC Tuesday September 14, 2010, from the International Space Station. Image credit: Douglas Wheelock, NASA.

Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next 2 - 3 days. Waters are warm, 29°C, and will remain 29°C for the next 2 - 3 days. Igor is well armored against any intrusions of dry air for at least the next three days. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next three days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, and may be responsible for the 10 mph weakening Igor experienced early this morning. Igor may regain its lost intensity over the next 36 hours. By Saturday morning, 36 hours before the core of Igor is expected to pass Bermuda's latitude, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it. The SHIPS models predicts shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, during the final 24 hours of the storm's approach to Bermuda. Igor will also be tracking over cooler 28°C waters during this period, and substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph can be expected. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 13% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds from Igor, but this probability is likely too low. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 or 2 hurricane conditions for the island on Sunday, with 20 - 25 foot waves in the offshore waters.

Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor has made its long-anticipated turn to the west-northwest, in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic. This trough will steer Igor several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and high waves should be the only impact of Igor on the islands. Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Saturday. Igor will be moving at about 12 - 15 mph as it approaches Bermuda. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will probably extend out about 250 miles to the north of Igor on Saturday, so Bermuda can expect 18 hours of tropical storm force winds before the core of Igor makes its closest pass. In all, Bermuda is likely to experience a very long pounding of 24 - 36 hours with winds in excess of tropical storm force.

The models have been in substantial agreement over multiple runs that Igor will miss the U.S. East Coast, and the danger to the U.S. will probably only come in the form of high waves. Large swells from Igor have arrived in the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and will spread westwards over the next few days, reaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 8 - 10 foot waves on Saturday, and 9 - 12 foot waves on Sunday.

Igor may pass very close to Newfoundland, Canada, but it is too early too assess the likelihood of this happening.

Julia
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification this morning to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds make it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926 which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's current longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region are about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas. SSTs will steadily cool to 26.5°C today, and further intensification today is unlikely. Shear will be moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over Julia during the next two days, then rise sharply to 30 knots 3 - 5 days from now, as Julia moves within 1000 miles of Igor and begins to experience strong northwesterly winds from her big brother's upper level outflow. This should substantially weaken Julia.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models develop a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 3 - 6 days from now. The GFS also develops a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now.

Portlight's 2-year anniversary
On September 14, 2008, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ike on Texas and Louisiana moved members of the wunderground community to put into action their own impromptu relief effort. From this humble beginning has grown a disaster-relief charity I have been proud to support--Portlight.org. We've been blessed this hurricane season with relatively few landfalling storms, so Portlight's new disaster relief trailer (Figure 4), financed with a $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation, has yet to be deployed. With five weeks of peak hurricane season still to come, the new trailer may yet get a call to action. The mobile kitchen in the trailer will be able to feed several hundred people per day, and the trailer is equipped with portable ramps to help with shelter accessibility, as well as durable medical equipment to facilitate mobility and independence for survivors. The trailer is mobile, and Portlight is willing to load it up and fly it to Bermuda, if Igor ends up making a mess there!

The lack of landfalling storms has allowed Portlight to continue to concentrate their efforts on Haiti, where their assistance has been a tremendous boost for those most in need, the disabled. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and donate. A few other items of note:

Portlight has been able to facilitate providing assistance to people with disabilities in Pakistan, where the worst natural disaster in their history has left 4 million homeless. While not directly involved in delivering relief, Portlight has been able to connect local Disabled People's Organizations with important sources of food, water, filtration systems, and medical equipment.

ABC News4 in Charleston broadcast a story about the Portlight relief trailer, and Portlight has also been featured on the Pacifica Radio Network.

Portlight launched a quarterly newsletter, The Portlight View, which can be seen on the newly redesigned website.


Figure 4. The new Portlight disaster relief trailer, funded by their $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve foundation.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. Michfan
Thanks for the update StormW. As always its appreciated.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 12:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 11:37:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°37'N 92°07'W (19.6167N 92.1167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 105 miles (169 km) to the W (261°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,297m (4,255ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (30°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 71kts (From the ESE at ~ 81.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (31°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west-northwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)

M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 330° to 150° (NNW to SSE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:31:40Z
Quoting stormmaven:
STORMW - "I appreciate your support and emails."

Bye Tom - I hope you are gone for good this time .


To you, I would say what Dick Cheney said once upon a time to a senator.
3006. scott39
Quoting WeatherInterest:

Some forecasters are giving us a warning that the tropical cyclones will be moving further west for the rest of the season and there may be one strike along the US coastline. Is the New England area safe and are they only talking about the Gulf Coasst states and south east coast?
Its not impossible for one to still hit farther N up the E Coast. Although I would say you are getting safer by the day.Yes,the Gulf Coast States threat of a strike is going up.
SFMR just finding stronger winds.
60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph)
3008. scott39
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SFMR just finding stronger winds.
60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph)
Which way does it "look" like its heading to you?
3009. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:
Igor's big, and Ike was big...but for our neck of the woods, Gilbert's a hard one to beat so far as areal coverage is concerned:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Gilbert was big.. I was living in S.W.Florida when Gilbert came through south of us. The Keys were receiving gusts over 40 mph.
Quoting kshipre1:
good morning Jeff. sorry for this weird question but I am a rookie at learning weather and all but what main indicators are you looking at now that tell you that that the Eastern Gulf and Florida is at much more risk soon? Thanks


Trough setting up in the eastern us which causes the SE Ridge to finally erode and bring FL much needed rainfall but with the possibility of hurricanes.
Model guidiance for Igor has become as tight as it's ever been. Margin of error drastically diminshing as to agreement of Igor projected trek.
3014. P451
Karl looks to be quickly organizing. The curvature of the BOC land mass actually aides in tightening up a system in this region.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him reach Cat 2 prior to going inland. I don't know how much more intense than that he can get given proximity to land however. If he did lift more northerly given his structure you couldn't rule out an even stronger scenario. If he pulled far enough north where he's going inland perpendicular to the coast that also causes a rapid tightening and intensifying of a landfalling system.

Just things to keep an eye on.
Quoting muddertracker:
It was absolutely ridiculous..almost no tropical discussion at all..just threats to leave....please don't leaves...etc. etc. etc. It was about as productive as a one legged field goal kicker.


LOL! The Gulf system if you look close is sitting at 10N and 39W.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
thanks Jeff for this info. can you tell me which website you get these maps from?

I think you showed it to me once before but when I clicked on the link it gave me some error
Quoting hydrus:
Gilbert was big.. I was living in S.W.Florida when Gilbert came through south of us. The Keys were receiving gusts over 40 mph.


Here in the mainland of S.F, we got at least some 30-40mph gust. A few nasty squalls as well.
Quoting muddertracker:
OMG...Still? Really people? I think I'd rather listed to that tunnel guy from 2005, or StormTop5000 from 2006, or revisit the StormJunkie fiasco from 2008....I'd even settle for a good ole JFV sighting at this point...Shees.


1

What was my 2008 fiasco though? And if I had a fiasco then, I'd hate to think what mine and many others antics from '05 would be called.
All be it long range notice the SE Ridge has retreated to the Bahamas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_372.shtml
3021. P451
Quoting muddertracker:
OMG...Still? Really people? I think I'd rather listed to that tunnel guy from 2005, or StormTop5000 from 2006, or revisit the StormJunkie fiasco from 2008....I'd even settle for a good ole JFV sighting at this point...Shees.


If this drama goes on for a third day I think we will have no choice but to start flagging all posts contributing to the situation.

I want to talk about and read about the Tropics which are quite active. Not internet hissy fits.

Quoting yonzabam:


ACE matters very much as a way of measuring the impact of global warming on hurricane activity.


If it were only true.
Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! The Gulf system if you look close is sitting at 10N and 39W.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
Yup. The UKMET was doing some crazy things with Karl last night..I hope it's not picking up on something that would move the remnants of Karl over central Tx. That would be really BAD..like 100 year flooding stuff. I haven't checked the models this morning, but the NHC track still looks south of west...correction...more straight west, now, ugh!
Quoting kshipre1:
thanks Jeff for this info. can you tell me which website you get these maps from?

I think you showed it to me once before but when I clicked on the link it gave me some error


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
60th anniverary of Dog. Still not buying the 185mph winds w/ a 948 central pressure. Would of killed to see some imagery of Dog.

We've come a long way in forecasting since then.
3027. scott39
Can somebodey please post me a link to a table that shows the different degrees in movement of a TC? TIA
000
WTNT33 KNHC 161224
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER AND SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 92.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

---

000
WTNT43 KNHC 161224
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT KARL WAS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY ABOUT 30 N MI. THE PLANE
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
WINDS SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1230Z 19.7N 92.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 20.1N 93.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 94.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.8N 96.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Indeed... now predicted to be a Category Two at landfall.
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
Quoting muddertracker:
Yup. The UKMET was doing some crazy things with Karl last night..I hope it's not picking up on something that would move the remnants of Karl over central Tx. That would be really BAD..like 100 year flooding stuff. I haven't checked the models this morning, but the NHC track still looks south of west...correction...more straight west, now, ugh!


Some models actually bring the remants of Karl to west TX as a rainmaker.
Quoting StormJunkie:


1

What was my 2008 fiasco though? And if I had a fiasco then, I'd hate to think what mine and many others antics from '05 would be called.
Hey SJ...I was talking about everyone on your case for posting links to your site...it wasn't 2008? Man, I'm getting old..
Lisa & Matthew are waiting in the wings. Glad we're heading into the back 9 of the season once this apparent pattern is supposedly gonna shift though.
Quoting muddertracker:
Hey SJ...I was talking about everyone on your case for posting links to your site...it wasn't 2008? Man, I'm getting old..


Oh hell, that was from 2005-2008, you're not that old. But it was all in good fun, and I can take the heat.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Oh hell, that was from 2005-2008, you're not that old. But it was all in good fun, and I can take the heat.
I'm not one for "stroking," but your site is one of the best sites out there...I use it daily..it's like one-stop tropical shopping :)
3036. FLdewey
I won't say I told you so....
3038. tkeith
Quoting StormJunkie:


Oh hell, that was from 2005-2008, you're not that old. But it was all in good fun, and I can take the heat.
a thick skin comes in handy here at times...you know the old "get out of the kitchen" adage.
3039. IKE
Karl reaching for his sunglasses to cover his eye....

06z GFS has a hurricane over the eastern GOM.
384hrs (Long-Range)
I do believe Karl is now a hurricane by looking at the Sat.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Some models actually bring the remants of Karl to west TX as a rainmaker.

West TX would be OK, so long as its west of the hill country. Most of the hill country run off funnels down to central. And the LCRA has no qualms about flooding houses if they need to release water from Lake Travis...if the hill country got another 10 inches, things could get dicey for those who live in the flood plane.
3043. Bonedog
compass rose directions



Link
3044. FLdewey
Quoting Jeff9641:
FLdewey I see got hit up too last night. Their must have been a full out assault last night. WOW!

Not sure what "got hit up" means... maybe we should keep that from the wife.

I see the don't leave posts are being solicited again... wonderful.
Hey tkeith, good to see you..Without a thick skin I think we'd all have had Randrewl syndrome by now.
Karl is going nuts this morning, look at those cloud tops...



3047. Bonedog
compass calculator. just plug in the degrees and it will tell you the direction

Link
3039:

Roger that
Recon is going in for another pass... we will see just how fast this thing is intensifying and what direction it is going... maybe we can see it get to Major Hurricane in the BOC
3050. tkeith
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey tkeith, good to see you..Without a thick skin I think we'd all have had Randrewl syndrome by now.
agreed :)
3052. Bonedog
picture to print out for convienice



Link


A little more south might be okay. Seems to give it a little less time over water. If it correlates to reality, the BoC really doesn't like storms in it for too long after Alex, it seems.
3056. FLdewey
10 naders and 42 sheriffnados... not a bad day for a slight risk.

3058. Bonedog
various "hard" points on the compass also called cardnial points



0.00 N North
11.25 N by E North by east
22.50 NNE North north east (Nor nor east)
33.75 NE by N North east by north
45.00 NE North east (nor east)
56.25 NE by E North east by east
67.50 ENE East north east
78.75 E by N East by north
90.00 E East
101.25 E by S East by south
112.50 ESE East south east
123.75 SE by E South east by east
135.00 SE South east
146.25 SE by S South east by south
157.50 SSE South south east (sou sou east)
168.75 S by E South by east
180.00 S South
191.25 S by W South by west
202.50 SSW South south west (sou sou west)
213.75 SW by S South west by south
225.00 SW South west
236.25 SW by W South west by west
247.50 WSW West south west
258.75 W by S West by south
270.00 W West
281.25 W by N West by north
292.50 WNW West north west
303.75 NW by W North west by west
315.00 NW North west (nor west)
326.25 NW by N North west by north
337.50 NNW North north west (nor nor west)
348.75 N by W North by west
360.00 N North
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Recon is going in for another pass... we will see just how fast this thing is intensifying and what direction it is going... maybe we can see it get to Major Hurricane in the BOC


It'd be the first time since 1964 (an analog year) that we would see three straight major hurricanes (it happened not once, but twice that year).

I'd like to see that record stay a little longer, though.
3060. tkeith
Quoting Bonedog:
compass calculator. just plug in the degrees and it will tell you the direction

Link
good link Bone...thanks
3052:

Thnx Bonedog. Good tool to have handy...
3062. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


Like a clingy girlfriend in need of constant reassurance.


You do still love me... right?

RIGHT?

*grabs cleaver from kitchen
3063. scott39
Thanks Bonedog. That will help me alot.
3056:

I was kinda surprised a moderate risk bubble wasn't issue for in & around K C.
3065. IKE
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey tkeith, good to see you..Without a thick skin I think we'd all have had Randrewl syndrome by now.


Man if he was on here now...this blog would completely explode.

Folks...this is the weather. No one is perfect at predicting it. No one. The experts all make mistakes on tropical systems and on where they will go.

The experts are being proven correct in it being an active season. I figured too many were forecasting just that, for them to be wrong.

The tracks of these storms is what has led to problems on here. I think tracks are harder to forecast....long range or seasonal.
AL, 11, 2010091612, , BEST, 0, 206N, 569W, 120, 934, HU, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 55, 1009, 330, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, D,

Igor weakens slightly.
Quoting Cotillion:


It'd be the first time since 1964 (an analog year) that we would see three straight major hurricanes (it happened not once, but twice that year).

I'd like to see that record stay a little longer, though.



Wow that is crazy...here is a question has there been any 4 majors in a row... at this rate if Lisa forms from the African Wave then she may become a major hurricane as well
3071. FLdewey
Quoting cat5hurricane:
3056:

I was kinda surprised a moderate risk bubble wasn't issue for in & around K C.

I can see why they didn't at the time, because it could have just as easily been a total bust. I know I wouldn't have driven very far for that setup... but then again hindsight is always 20/20.
3072. Bonedog
no problem saw a posta sking for them =)

had em handy figured id help out
3073. Michfan
Quoting IKE:


Man if he was on here now...this blog would completely explode.

Folks...this is the weather. No one is perfect at predicting it. No one. The experts all make mistakes on tropical systems and on where they will go.

The experts are being proven correct in it being an active season. I figured too many were forecasting just that, for them to be wrong.

The tracks of these storms is what has led to problems on here. I think tracks are harder to forecast....long range or seasonal.


If your wrong your wrong. Big Fing deal. Its a weather BLOG people. Not an official forecasting station.
3074. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Almost a complete eyewall with Karl.


Very impressive......What is it with that area? Alex developed what appeared to be an"eye"while it was over land down there, this storm seemed to have an"eye" just before landfall, and maintained quite well as it crossed the Yucatan. And before it even fully exited the coast Karl had what looked like a fully formed"eye"....Yucatan=eye...Why?..Why?....
3076. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


Ward was always such a chauvinist, wasn't he?

SaMANta... wait, wrong show.
3077. Patrap
Fresca does not go well with Bacon and eggs.

Recon has a flagged 60 knt surface wind
3079. P451
Just watching the evolution of Karl is incredible. Prior to landfall on the YUC you could tell that if all he had was water ahead of him he'd be a RI Major this morning.

Looking at him I'm thinking CAT 2 at next landfall is a probability. I wouldn't be surprised, if he pulls further north from land (and as he does of course the land contours head south helping this) that CAT 3 couldn't be out of the question - but that will be up to proximity to land - not time left over water I would think.

He already appears to be a hurricane. I don't want to say RI yet but he certainly is organizing very quickly this morning.

Had a feeling last night that Karl and Igor would be very interesting today.
buoy 41044 in Igor's path

god speed little buoy & no getting yourself destroyed..
3086. Patrap
GOM IR Loop




Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



Wow that is crazy...here is a question has there been any 4 majors in a row... at this rate if Lisa forms from the African Wave then she may become a major hurricane as well


Yes, several times, but you have to go before 1964.

1950 had its first 6 storms all being majors.

1961's first 5 storms all were majors (Anna to Esther).

1951 had 4 straight majors.

1953, 55, 58 also had 3 straight majors.

The issue is that this goes prior to satellite and enhanced forecasting techniques where undoubtedly the little Gastons, Nanas, etc were missed (which would have broken the sequence).
3088. FLdewey
Quoting Skyepony:
buoy 41044 in Igor's path

god speed little buoy & no getting yourself destroyed..

I FOUND you miss new buoy...

That should be a rough ride.
3089. Michfan
-cast or -cast·ed, -cast·ing, noun
–verb (used with object)
1. to predict (a future condition or occurrence); calculate in advance:

And for those who are challenged by the English language

pre·dict   /prɪˈdɪkt/ Show Spelled[pri-dikt] Show IPA
–verb (used with object)
1. to declare or tell in advance; prophesy; foretell:

Last i checked Predictions were not an exact science.
3090. P451
Quoting Patrap:
Fresca does not go well with Bacon and eggs.



LOL!

Good Lord man what were you thinking?

I needed that chuckle. With that I'm off to be productive...a little.

With that I will leave you all with a primed 72hr Loop of Karl courtesy of the U of Hawaii.

WARNING: JAVA AND MACHINE INTENSIVE LOOP HERE! Takes time to load. DONT load if you have ongoing unsaved work!!!!!


72HR WV Imagery Loop: KARL

....EDITED to 72HRs, with 1HR Intervals. Should load much better for folks now.
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, several times, but you have to go before 1964.

1950 had its first 6 storms all being majors.

1961's first 5 storms all were majors (Anna to Esther).

1951 had 4 straight majors.

1953, 55, 58 also had 3 straight majors.

The issue is that this goes prior to satellite and enhanced forecasting techniques where undoubtedly the little Gastons, Nanas, etc were missed (which would have broken the sequence).


So in other words if we get to 4 Majors we probably have the record but we will never know
yay!

No more rich text :D

I can post pictures and quote now!!!!
We're above every season in activity in the 2000-Current period, with the exception of 2005.

At least, I think its that way, I'll check this afternoon.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


So in other words if we get to 4 Majors we probably have the record but we will never know


Essentially. Prior to satellite, even from say 1940 to 1960, anywhere from 1 to 5 storms could be missed.

If you go back further, even more could have been (as tracking anything in the Atlantic would be difficult).

Makes seasons like 1887 (19 storms), 1916 (15), 1933 (21) even more remarkable. They were probably even more active than we know already.
3097. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
60th anniverary of Dog. Still not buying the 185mph winds w/ a 948 central pressure. Would of killed to see some imagery of Dog.

We've come a long way in forecasting since then.
lol..I would have loved to see the sat pics of at least half of the ones we could not see...The 1935 Labor Day Storm...The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926...New England Hurricane of 1938...The Great Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928...I could type all day and not post them all...&^*^%%%
3098. scott39
Whats confusing to me is that the NHC just went S of thier previous forecast, but Karl is moving WNW.
What is the the UKMET seeing that is causing the northerly component in its last two runs with Karl? The run last night actually showed him coming back out into the GOM, and this morning its still well North of the other models. Any idea why?
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2010 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 19:41:24 N Lon : 92:10:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 973.2mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************


Where is Taz
3102. scott39
Quoting CajunTexan:
What is the the UKMET seeing that is causing the northerly component in its last two runs with Karl? The run last night actually showed him coming back out into the GOM, and this morning its still well North of the other models. Any idea why?
Dont know, but on sattelite you can definitely see a pull towards Northwest by W right now. IMO
Dog was either weaker than 185mph and maybe a strong Cat 4 in reality... or yes, the pressure was far lower than recorded (no storm above 175mph has had a pressure reading above 905mb. It's likely that Dog was in actuality, providing it was 185mph sustained winds, a sub-900mb storm).
Unflagged 65 knt surface winds... could they have to issue 2 special advisories so quickly to upgrade this to hurricane???

Pressure is down to 985-986
3097:

True dat. And the list of storms we'd luv to see goes on & on...

We'll just have to use our imaginations I guess.
64.1 knots (~ 73.7 mph)
Category One Hurricane
More flight winds of 75kts or so, makes about 3 or 4 by now.

If it isn't a hurricane yet, it's right on the cusp of being one.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Unflagged 65 knt surface winds... could they have to issue 2 special advisories so quickly to upgrade this to hurricane???

Pressure is down to 985-986


Pressure has been at 985-986.

The National Hurricane Center can issue a SA whenever they want, but they probably won't issue another one until 11AM, when they are originally expected to update.
3115. ededed
longtime lurker...I think I've posted once before, but has anyone seen the newest ADT?

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 973.2mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Karl will likely be the fifth major Hurricane of the year...
3117. FLdewey
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:

I think it is real, he left. Sad, really, kinda like when we lost "press in a dress". Sniff, sniff...

I haven't seen him since last night.

True story.
Raw t numbers now indicate Cat 4 hurricane ... this has to be at least a cat 1
Quoting muddertracker:
I'm not one for "stroking," but your site is one of the best sites out there...I use it daily..it's like one-stop tropical shopping :)


Oh Man! I went to SJ's blog here and found the link. I don't think I'm ever going to find time to look through everything LOL Great collection SJ!
3124. scott39
Quoting futuremet:
Karl will likely be the fifth major Hurricane of the year...
going where?
3125. angiest

Quoting scott39:
Dont know, but on sattelite you can definitely see a pull towards Northwest by W right now. IMO
Well if the models have a lower intensity the track may be incorrect.  Steering will shift to a different level in the atmosphere.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Raw t numbers now indicate Cat 4 hurricane ... this has to be at least a cat 1


ADT's been broken since it started re-monitoring Karl.

I'd pay little attention to it right now.

Suffice to say Karl's enjoying dipping his toes in the Bay.
3133. scott39
Quoting angiest:

Well if the models have a lower intensity the track may be incorrect.  Steering will shift to a different level in the atmosphere.
Thats what I was concerned about.
Wunderground receives a lot of traffic and has a solid Google Page Rank status. I am sure that most, if not all forecasters visit Wunderground. NHC professional forecasters probably visit the Wunderblog, but they do not post here. Why? It would ruin their credibility and reputation. Wasting time in futile blabber and debates with dogmatic individuals and trolls really reduces your productivity and credibility.
3137. FLdewey
Hmmm... I wonder if this is available in Mens?

Awesome T-SHIRT
3138. angiest
Quoting scott39:
Thats what I was concerned about.


I think this is the correct layer for Karl right now:

Karl's spent all his spare time at the gym bulking up. Although word is he turned down Igoid's offer to try some of his performance enhancers.
3141. angiest
Quoting Prgal:


LMAO!!!!!!


I guess you figured it out. :)
3144. Bonedog
12:47:30Z 19.817N 92.567W
flight level 73 knots
(~ 83.9 mph)
SFMR surface 65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 13:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 12:42:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°39'N 92°22'W (19.65N 92.3667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (194 km) to the W (263°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,299m (4,262ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 206° at 51kts (From the SSW at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the ESE (119°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the north-northeast
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30° to 210° (NNE to SSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:47:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:47:10Z
3146. Patrap


3 mb pressure drop in a matter of 59 minutes from recon... the new VDM is 984 mb
I hope it's not a test that needs a brain!!!
Quoting Patrap:
I never Poll on a Thursday.

I have a tee time.


Appreciate a fellow gulf coaster as well, glad one of the originals is still here :)
Silly question - but here goes -- trying to email wunderground admin regarding the issues I have with comment refresh and can't seem to find the correct address. Can someone help?

TIA
3153. P451
Quoting futuremet:
Karl will likely be the fifth major Hurricane of the year...


I almost concur. Expecting CAT2, but, getting further away from land he may make CAT3.

He really wants to get going doesn't he.


Java intensive loop here, folks, save your work before clicking.

KARL: 72 Hour Loop with 1 Hour increments.



...and with that you all have a good day.

Igor Still Strong
Julia Still Weakening
Karl Rapidly Intensyifying

Yet with all the Above Average Activity we havent had a United States Hurricane Landfall

Weve been lucky
Julia please just go away
3157. P451
Quoting zoomiami:
Silly question - but here goes -- trying to email wunderground admin regarding the issues I have with comment refresh and can't seem to find the correct address. Can someone help?

TIA



Very bottom of the page. CONTACT link or SUPPORT link should get you there.
3159. hydrus
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, several times, but you have to go before 1964.

1950 had its first 6 storms all being majors.

1961's first 5 storms all were majors (Anna to Esther).

1951 had 4 straight majors.

1953, 55, 58 also had 3 straight majors.

The issue is that this goes prior to satellite and enhanced forecasting techniques where undoubtedly the little Gastons, Nanas, etc were missed (which would have broken the sequence).
Are you a meteorologist Cotillion? If not you might consider a career in the weather sciences. You are very knowledgeable in these areas.....Igor is looking a little disorganized at the moment...
3160. srada
Quoting FLdewey:
Hmmm... I wonder if this is available in Mens?

Awesome T-SHIRT


On this blog, its always available in Men's..cant blame the ladies of WU for this mess1
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Igor Still Strong
Julia Still Weakening
Karl Rapidly Intensyifying

Yet with all the Above Average Activity we havent had a United States Hurricane Landfall

Weve been lucky
VERY lucky....so far
3163. markot
isnt there a strong disturbance, wave off the afr. coast surprised they havnt given it a yellow circle yet.....
3165. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Igor Still Strong
Julia Still Weakening
Karl Rapidly Intensyifying

Yet with all the Above Average Activity we havent had a United States Hurricane Landfall

Weve been lucky
Word....Sorry Sam...I just wanted to try that"word".
Quoting markot:
isnt there a strong disturbance, wave off the afr. coast surprised they havnt given it a yellow circle yet.....
Lisa's lurking. She's just waiting for the right time to pounce
3168. Patrap
One can wu-mail wunderblogadmin for any concerns here.
We live in a Beautiful World

Recon suggest that Karl's either very close to hurricane status or already is one.
Quoting sunlinepr:
We live in a Beautiful World


Too bad people are always looking for ways to screw it up.
3172. pottery
Good Morning all.
This Blog is a valuable, informative place to find Real Time weather information.
This Blog is a place to find Good Information, Explanations, and Forecasts on current weather patterns and systems.
This Blog is frequented by all manner of people, from rank amateurs like me, to Specialists in the Science of Meteorology.

I cannot for the life of me understand why it is, that people here get so completely Frazzled and Worked-up, when the occasional post is critical of them, off topic, humourous or sarcastic.

Do we expect ONLY the constant posting of Images and Graphs and CORRECT INFORMATION all the time?
Apart from being boring, dull, and mundane, that would be impossible.

The fact that there are people who enter this room to create trouble is perfectly understandable.
The fact that WE the Members (paying or not) encourage them in many ways ,(by our attitude and responses to them mostly) is THE PROBLEM.

I do hope that as a Community, we can see-off the Stupidness of the last few days...........
3173. hydrus
Quoting sunlinepr:
We live in a Beautiful World

Yes we do...it is sad that some people do not do more to keep it that way.
Quoting hydrus:
Are you a meteorologist Cotillion? If not you might consider a career in the weather sciences. You are very knowledgeable in these areas.....Igor is looking a little disorganized at the moment...


Hey Hydrus, thanks for the kind words, but no I'm not. Just a keen hobbyist with an eye towards the history side of things (as the history element is more my forte)
3175. Patrap
Well said pottery,..
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
This Blog is a valuable, informative place to find Real Time weather information.
This Blog is a place to find Good Information, Explanations, and Forecasts on current weather patterns and systems.
This Blog is frequented by all manner of people, from rank amateurs like me, to Specialists in the Science of Meteorology.

I cannot for the life of me understand why it is, that people here get so completely Frazzled and Worked-up, when the occasional post is critical of them, off topic, humourous or sarcastic.

Do we expect ONLY the constant posting of Images and Graphs and CORRECT INFORMATION all the time?
Apart from being boring, dull, and mundane, that would be impossible.

The fact that there are people who enter this room to create trouble is perfectly understandable.
The fact that WE the Members (paying or not) encourage them in many ways ,(by our attitude and responses to them mostly) is THE PROBLEM.

I do hope that as a Community, we can see-off the Stupidness of the last few days...........


Morning Pottery :)
Glad to see some mature logic... but it will be wasted on many.
Igor is going down hill in a hurry it looks like to me...

At the rate Karl's going, he might as well just cross Mexico, enter the pacific & circle the globe. This thing is steadfast & refuses to answer to anyone. j/k...he'll die in Mexico.
Quoting hydrus:
Word....Sorry Sam...I just wanted to try that"word".


Hey Guys. How are You. Still Cant Belive that South Florida got rain this morning because of karl and hes so far away.
3181. Patrap
GOM IR loop

Quoting futuremet:
Wunderground receives a lot of traffic and has a solid Google Page Rank status. I am sure that most, if not all forecasters visit Wunderground. NHC professional forecasters probably visit the Wunderblog, but they do not post here. Why? It would ruin their credibility and reputation. Wasting time in futile blabber and debates with dogmatic individuals and trolls really reduces your productivity and credibility.


Excellent point as usual Futuremet. It is getting difficult to sift out decent data here for the hobbyist(as SJ correctly called what most of us are in here). I just want to read about debates on track and intensity, not this bickering and BS. This comment is not directed at the regulars who have somehow kept a good focus this week....Newbies, Kids, Trolls....Shut up and read for a bit, maybe you will learn something. Maybe. There are 3 major storms right now, plenty to focus on. If you can't focus on that, you should not be posting. Yes we are hobbyists, but for most of us, this is not a game when a storm could possibly affect you/family/friends life and property.

My apologies to all respected bloggers for the rant. This is my favorite site on the web. My wife has to yell at me to get a way from here, yet I only have 40 or less posts, and have read here for over 4 years. Think before you speak! IF you can't ADD valuable knowledge (or timely GOODNATURED Humor) to the mix, don't post it....you are wasting space.

NOW I'm done wasting space.

Over and Out.
3183. hydrus
Good post Pott....
3184. CalTex
Long-time lurker, recent commenter here. Could someone please explain the meaning of the different colors in the steering maps? I'd like to be sure what I'm looking for. Thanks.
Karls eye went right over us this morning @430 CST...max sustained winds of 65kts for about 30-40 minutes...sideways rain...getting stronger...NHC was VERY conservative on this one, as it has been this year.Will give more info later.
3186. scott39
p451- Kool Loop
What is going on with several models recurving Karl back into the BOC? Last night 18z Ukmet had some weird loop back into the GOM, and now I see a couple more sending him right back into the BOC. I asked this last night and no one seemed to think it's possible, but the models have to be grabbing onto something, right? That makes the Ukmet, GFDL\NGFDL, and HWRF that have all picked up on this in the past 12 hours or so.

Link
For me It's all a matter of adjusting our alarms to be less sensitive..... Ignore bad posts, consider good ones, do your research, learn from those with experience, teach those who are new, and enjoy the blog.....
Pottery, you echo my sentiments exactly with one exception. While the community at large is responsible for the actions of those that reside within, this place does have admins, and they should have employed the ban hammer hard and fast. I'm sorry, but there is no other way to keep things civil. I'm done. Have a good day all.
Moving NE...
Morning Pottery; eloquent and accurate as always...
Quoting pottery:


3197. scott39
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
What is going on with several models recurving Karl back into the BOC? Last night 18z Ukmet had some weird loop back into the GOM, and now I see a couple more sending him right back into the BOC. I asked this last night and no one seemed to think it's possible, but the models have to be grabbing onto something, right? That makes the Ukmet, GFDL\NGFDL, and HWRF that have all picked up on this in the past 12 hours or so.

Link
Maybe Karl slowing down and strengthing faster than forecasted, has something to do with It. IMO
3198. XLR8
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
This Blog is a valuable, informative place to find Real Time weather information.
This Blog is a place to find Good Information, Explanations, and Forecasts on current weather patterns and systems.
This Blog is frequented by all manner of people, from rank amateurs like me, to Specialists in the Science of Meteorology.

I cannot for the life of me understand why it is, that people here get so completely Frazzled and Worked-up, when the occasional post is critical of them, off topic, humourous or sarcastic.

Do we expect ONLY the constant posting of Images and Graphs and CORRECT INFORMATION all the time?
Apart from being boring, dull, and mundane, that would be impossible.

The fact that there are people who enter this room to create trouble is perfectly understandable.
The fact that WE the Members (paying or not) encourage them in many ways ,(by our attitude and responses to them mostly) is THE PROBLEM.

I do hope that as a Community, we can see-off the Stupidness of the last few days...........


Amen!! +100
Quoting P451:



Very bottom of the page. CONTACT link or SUPPORT link should get you there.


Tnanks
3200. Bonedog
THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.


duhdum.... duhdum.... duhdum.... dunnnannaa!! dumdumdudmudm.....


BOC. You go inside the BOC?

Karl goes in the water, BOC is the water. TCHP in the water. BOC TCHP.

Farewell and adieu to you, fair Mexican ladies. Farewell and adieu, you ladies of Mexico. For we've received orders for to sail back to Boston. And so nevermore shall we see you again.
Plus 1, Liked the hand clap and the point of the post :-)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon suggest that Karl's either very close to hurricane status or already is one.
....61kts surface winds,should be a cane by 5pm,maybe right to cat Status by the imo
3204. hydrus
I am thankful Karl is not heading north...Just look at all of that moisture and warm water it would be moving into...A Cat-5 would have been a real possibility.
Port of Track





3206. angiest
Karl may just gain a little more latitude at this strength. Still probably south of the border, though.
Quoting stillwaiting:
....61kts surface winds,should be a cane by 5pm,maybe right to cat Status by the imo
agreed
Quoting NOLAKat:
So, I just discovered that Storm W is leaving. WTH? I am having difficulty putting into words the disappointment, anger, and frustration that the "trolls" have caused the blog this year. I feel as though it has been a struggle since the begining of this season, and I'm not sure why this year they have been so plentiful. Storm- I don't blame you for leaving. I'm sure many will follow shortly, myself included. However, I have no idea where to get good reliable information now as I have relied on this site/blog for years. I know that there will be more storms to track shortly, and I won't know who's info to trust. I'm am so saddened by all of this.
Quoting naplesdoppler:


Ok, I had to come out of lurk mode for this one, I never comment but this couldn't be ignored. Storm your knowledge is greatly appreciated here and it will be a real loss to many of us if this is true. You are the one we turn to for reliable information, please ignore these jerks who give you a hard time, they obviously are lacking in other areas. Hope we get to see you around still.


Another Ex-Lurker here. I have been enjoying and relying on this blog for years now. Stormw and several others are a great resource for Tropical Weather. They can give insight and info that the NHC can't provide due to political BS. Storm I hope you stay, you will be missed by many.
StormW, if you do decide to go please add me as well to the list, this blog will definitely be the lesser... Appreciate you Chief :-)



TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER AND SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 92.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Quoting cat5hurricane:
agreed
As i stated earlier, we had 65kts for 30 minutes @0430h...actually on the surface as thats where we are located.
3215. hydrus
Quoting tacoman:
let me be perfectly clear guys karl will not recurve back into the gom...a huge very strong high pressure is over the nand nw gom and is going to keep karl well south of the northern gom and texas coast...mexico is in for a rude awakening this storm will be approaching cat 3 status when it slams into mexico between veracruz and tampico..this is a very dangerous life threatening situation for mexico and they should start to take precautions ASAP..the high is going to protect the gulf coast from getting this very strong storm..i would not be surprised to see karl a strong 3 when it hits mexico late friday or saturday...nothing for texas or any part of the gom to worry about this ...we are in the clear gang...
I agree....This is some serious business headed there way....
Quoting scott39:
Maybe Karl slowing down and strengthing faster than forecasted, has something to do with It. IMO
couple days ago gfs had karl in the s boc not moving about ten yrs ago a cyclone got in there got stuck for almost a wk made life miserable for those folks
3218. hydrus
Quoting FloatingCity:
As i stated earlier, we had 65kts for 30 minutes @0430h...actually on the surface as thats where we are located.
Where exactly are you located?
Quoting hydrus:
Where exactly are you located?
40 miles north of Cuidad del Carmen
3220. Vero1
.
3221. hydrus
Quoting islander101010:
couple days ago gfs had karl in the s boc not moving about ten yrs ago a cyclone got in there got stuck for almost a wk made life miserable for those folks
Roxanne did a number on them in 95 too.
3222. angiest
Steering just updated:


Looks like the Gulf high may have strengthened and backed to the west.

Note that this steering layer is not appropriate for Igor!
3224. Prgal
Quoting tacoman:
well if anyone is interested bob weatherguy03 is the best when it comes to hurricane information...he is a good man and he tells it like it is...so no need to worry bob is here to stay even when the going gets tough...bob wont run and hide he will give you all the info you need to stay safe...im so glad we have bob...


Please dont start.
Unlike Julia, at least Karl's got his head on straight
Quoting kajunn66:


Another Ex-Lurker here. I have been enjoying and relying on this blog for years now. Stormw and several others are a great resource for Tropical Weather. They can give insight and info that the NHC can't provide due to political BS. Storm I hope you stay, you will be missed by many.


Couldn't have said it better myself. EXACTLY what I was about to post.
Looks like 00 & 06Z GFS have dropped that Carib storm for end of next week. Is that what I'm seeing? (or is that wishful thinking on my part?)
3228. hydrus
Quoting FloatingCity:
40 miles north of Cuidad del Carmen
You had 65kts of wind for 30 minutes...Can you tell me from what direction? My guess is out of the east.
The Igoreye - looking very circular & clearing out:

Link
Looks like our little boy karls growing up to be a man,eye becoming apparent on sat,,...
Quoting stillwaiting:
Looks like our little boy karls growing up to be a man,eye becoming apparent on sat,,...
Second that.
3233. tacoman
angiest very good observation thats exactly what the high did...mexico is in the cross fires ...pray for those poor women and children they will need it.
3234. angiest
Quoting watercayman:
Looks like 00 & 06Z GFS have dropped that Carib storm for end of next week. Is that what I'm seeing? (or is that wishful thinking on my part?)


No I still see one. It bounces off of Central America and then heads up toward the AL/FL coast.
Quoting hydrus:
You had 65kts of wind for 30 minutes...Can you tell me from what direction? My guess is out of the east.
Correct...eye was just north of us...
Julia needs some serious help after Tuesday's explosiveness. She can only watch w/ envy as Igor & Karl thrive. too bad so sad
Quoting watercayman:
Looks like 00 & 06Z GFS have dropped that Carib storm for end of next week. Is that what I'm seeing? (or is that wishful thinking on my part?)


Wishful thinking

gfs 2010091606 Forecast slp Java Animation

Still shows it starting over Pottery's house... 3rd one this year.
16/1145 UTC 19.8N 92.3W T4.5/4.5 KARL -- Atlantic
3239. tacoman
this strong high is expected to stick around the hold weekend and then by monday be reinforced by another shot of cool dry air...we are protected from any hurricane that tries to penetrate this...i dont see no tropical weather for the gulf coast for at least 10 days if then...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
16/1145 UTC 19.8N 92.3W T4.5/4.5 KARL -- Atlantic


on its way to major hurricane
Quoting OctoberToRemember:


Wishful thinking, what the HECK are you looking at? Look at the right model next time, why don't you, -___-


Yes, I said this wrong. Dropped isn't the right word. It moves it into the following week and doesn't have it storming across the Carib any more, but rather more a GOM storm... I think.
Igor ingested some dry air during the EWRC. His CDO appears to be overcoming that and rebuilding.
3243. dmh1026
Anybody notice how far off the floater is on Karl from the NHC site?
Grim reaper is on your doorstep Julia
Quoting dmh1026:
Anybody notice how far off the floater is on Karl from the NHC site?
Yeah!!...iz going on like 24hrs now. lol
Quoting angiest:
Steering just updated:


Looks like the Gulf high may have strengthened and backed to the west.

Note that this steering layer is not appropriate for Igor!


Newbie question: How do I read a steering chart? Anybody has a quick primer?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Wishful thinking

gfs 2010091606 Forecast slp Java Animation

Still shows it starting over Pottery's house... 3rd one this year.


Shoot. Yep. I see it. Thanks Orca.
3249. tacoman
karl will be a cat 2 hurricanr by 11am friday...
Quoting angiest:
Steering just updated:


Looks like the Gulf high may have strengthened and backed to the west.

Note that this steering layer is not appropriate for Igor!
Igor thinks it's r rated but doesn't care. Nice graphic btw
So far, the recon doesn't quite show underneath what Karl is giving on the surface.

That also happened with Hermine. Not sure about Earl.

The (A)DT might be overdoing it a bit. There's been a bit of a thing with that this year - the monsoonal development seems to have made the convection more intense than usual.
Morning Everyone! Busy tropical day, with the south-central Mexican coastline and Bermuda staring trouble in the face.

Fortunately for Bermuda, Igor should start to feel the effects of an increase in shear and some dryer continental air before reaching there. This should likely keep her intensity in the Cat 1/2 range when it reaches close/over the island.
AL, 12, 2010091612, , BEST, 0, 219N, 376W, 85, 971, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 15, 30, 1009, 225, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JULIA, D,

Clinging onto Cat 2 status.. barely.
Quoting Cotillion:
So far, the recon doesn't quite show underneath what Karl is giving on the surface.

That also happened with Hermine. Not sure about Earl.

The (A)DT might be overdoing it a bit. There's been a bit of a thing with that this year - the monsoonal development seems to have made the convection more intense than usual.


Umm that comment doesn't make any sense to me?
They are showing extrapolated surface winds.





Most of the stronger ones bordering the 62-64 mph
Karl: the surprise story of the season?

At least he's garnered "player of the week" award. I hope you're listening Julia!!
3264. NASA101
PGI46L (CIMSS Predict site) - the entity at 8N - 38W now has model support from GFS, Euro, UKMET and NOGAPS!!
This is the one that GFS consistently develops slowly and puts in the GULF in 10 days time!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm that comment doesn't make any sense to me?
They are showing extrapolated surface winds.





Most of the stronger ones bordering the 62-64 mph


I mean, in comparison to DT.

The DT is making this from a 85mph hurricane up to Category Two.

The recon is showing winds from 65 to possibly just on the brink of hurricane status.

The convection looks really intense, making the satellite estimate higher than what the winds actually are underneath. Or so it has seemed.

(More intense than normal; seeing the greys on AVN was usually a rarity, it's happened a few times this year, particularly with the monsoonal-esque systems).
Karl's eye.
has anyone seen the new gfs model as it shows its a devestating forecast for tampa Link,
recon just took off to fly into Igor
I agree with Pottery and CTSkywatcher. I have lurked here for several years and have never posted. Thanks to all who have and will post valid info for good open discussions and knowledge.
3271. hydrus
Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
has anyone seen the new gfs model as it shows its a devestating forecast for tampa Link,
Your link is not working.
3266:

Holy potatoes!! That GOM is lethal ground
3273. CalTex
3247. JamminNJ 1:53 PM GMT on September 16, 2010

You and I have both asked what the colors mean on a steering chart, but I'm guessing that we're being hidden as "below average." Log in at night and then ask the question again, as I will do. Someone will likely answer as the blog isn't busy.
sorry everyone about the link its my computer
3275. bassis
I for one think that the information gleaned from WU is invaluable and have learned a lot from many here because different people have their eyes on different pieces of info. Last night Pat posted links that I might not have found if I was not here. Sj has great info and great jokes. DJ has great info and great sarcasm.

I will follow the chief to continue to learn but I will still come here for the diversity of knowledge available. This site is like no other and as others have mentioned, the void will be filled by those who come after.

I may increase my ignore list a little more liberal than before but to not come and learn would be MY MISTAKE
Quoting watercayman:
Looks like 00 & 06Z GFS have dropped that Carib storm for end of next week. Is that what I'm seeing? (or is that wishful thinking on my part?)


I was hoping for that, but unfortunately that is not the case. the GFS is consistently predicting a large system in the GOMEX. At first it was predicted for it to hit between the Lousiana TX border, now it is predicted to hit between the AL FL border. What bothers me is not the landfall points which have a great margin of error, but the consistency. GFS predicted Danielle and basically every other storm after that about two weeks before they even where in the map, so that trend cannot be ignored. The GFDL consistently predicted Karl and the GFS was predicting it 2 weeks prior to today as well then dropped it and a few days ago picked up on it again. But the one that surprised me the most was Gaston which the NHC insited was going to develop, but the GFS consistently did not even pick it up and Gaston when poof as predicted by the GFS. We cannot ignore that and based on trends only I would suggest that we need to be very alert about a possible system impacting the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida two weeks from now.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
recon just took off to fly into Igor

I'm really looking forward to seeing some direct observational data from that storm. CIMSS is nice, and the Sat pictures are pretty, but there's no substitute for actual observations.

In other news, the Hunter inside Karl is making another run at the center.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


I was hoping for that, but unfortunately that is not the case. the GFS is consistently predicting a large system in the GOMEX. At first it was predicted for it to hit between the Lousiana TX border, now it is predicted to hit between the AL FL border. What bothers me is not the landfall points which have a great margin of error, but the consistency. GFS predicted Danielle and basically every other storm after that about two weeks before they even where in the map, so that trend cannot be ignored. The GFDL consistently predicted Karl and the GFS was predicting it 2 weeks prior to today as well then dropped it and a few days ago picked up on it again. But the one that surprised me the most was Gaston which the NHC insited was going to develop, but the GFS consistently did not even pick it up and Gaston when poof as predicted by the GFS. We cannot ignore that and based on trends only I would suggest that we need to be very alert about a possible system impacting the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida two weeks from now.


Very helpful post. Thank you.
3279. TDogg
Normally, I'm here for comic relief. Wouldn't dare try to actually predict storms, but I do enjoy observing other posts and speculate on what's going to happen. Unfortunately, this IS a public forum and you're going to see immature posts and behavior...and we have seen the results. Will miss StormW's insight if he departs the blog. If I had the time, I'd step up and volunteer to moderate the blog, as my ban hammer would fall swiftly and harshly!
Quoting Futuremet
Wunderground receives a lot of traffic and has a solid Google Page Rank status. I am sure that most, if not all forecasters visit Wunderground. NHC professional forecasters probably visit the Wunderblog, but they do not post here. Why? It would ruin their credibility and reputation. Wasting time in futile blabber and debates with dogmatic individuals and trolls really reduces your productivity and credibility.

Quoting: CTSkywatcher

Excellent point as usual Futuremet. It is getting difficult to sift out decent data here for the hobbyist(as SJ correctly called what most of us are in here). I just want to read about debates on track and intensity, not this bickering and BS. This comment is not directed at the regulars who have somehow kept a good focus this week....Newbies, Kids, Trolls....Shut up and read for a bit, maybe you will learn something. Maybe. There are 3 major storms right now, plenty to focus on. If you can't focus on that, you should not be posting. Yes we are hobbyists, but for most of us, this is not a game when a storm could possibly affect you/family/friends life and property.

My apologies to all respected bloggers for the rant. This is my favorite site on the web. My wife has to yell at me to get a way from here, yet I only have 40 or less posts, and have read here for over 4 years. Think before you speak! IF you can't ADD valuable knowledge (or timely GOODNATURED Humor) to the mix, don't post it....you are wasting space.

NOW I'm done wasting space.

Over and Out.






I agree strongly with both posts. 100
Quoting CalTex:
3247. JamminNJ 1:53 PM GMT on September 16, 2010

You and I have both asked what the colors mean on a steering chart, but I'm guessing that we're being hidden as "below average." Log in at night and then ask the question again, as I will do. Someone will likely answer as the blog isn't busy.


On a satellite picture it means difference between the temperature of the warm eye and the surrounding cold cloud tops can be used to determine its intensity (colder cloud tops generally indicate a more intense storm).

On a steering chart it means the intensity or category the storm will have at that specific point.
Storm don't blame you for leaving wu this place is not what it was 4-5 years ago. I've been a fan of masters work for a very long time and will continue to read his blog. Over the past few years or so its become rather difficult to express ones views/ideas without running into problems. Heading of to DPO now.
Is this one working?
Hurricane Igor makes the weather so dry and hot in the E caribbean. Seas are very rough... and unlike the rain, this is totally unuseful.. but I know we cant decide what to get from mother nature.
3285. hcubed
Question for the blog police:

If we're only posting "tropical" entries, does that include the multiple "thanks Dr M" posts that can take up the first page?

Just want to know where to start the flagging...
Quoting angiest:
Steering just updated:


Looks like the Gulf high may have strengthened and backed to the west.

Note that this steering layer is not appropriate for Igor!

What is Julia doing, is she going to make another round of it?