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Karl dies over Mexico's mountains; Igor bears down on Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:28 PM GMT on September 18, 2010

Hurricane Karl dissipated early this morning over the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl made landfall yesterday on the Mexican coast about ten miles northwest of Veracruz at 1pm EDT, as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl was the first landfalling major hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Ike over Cuba in 2008, and the first major hurricane to make landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coast since Hurricane Wilma in Southwest Florida in 2005. Veracruz was on the weak (left) side of Karl's eyewall, and did not receive hurricane force winds, except perhaps at the extreme northern edge of the city. Winds at the Veracruz Airport, located on the west side of the city, peaked at sustained speeds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11:54am local time. Karl has dumped very heavy rains in Mexico's Veracruz state, with 218 mm (8.6") measured at Hacienda Yland Ylang, and 171 mm (6.7") at Japala.


Figure 1. Hurricane Karl as seen in this visible moonlight image from the F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:08pm EDT Thursday, September 16, 2010. The bright city lights of Mexico City are visible due west of Karl, and gas flares from the PEMEX drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico to the east of Karl also make a bright splash of light. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Igor
The Hurricane Hunters just arrived in Hurricane Igor, and found that the inner 23-mile wide eyewall had collapsed. Igor now has a huge 92-mile wide eye, thanks to this eyewall replacement cycle. As is usually the case in eyewall replacement cycles, the peak winds of the hurricane have decreased, but hurricane force winds are now spread out over a larger area. Top winds at the surface as seen by the SFMR instrument were Category 1 strength, 82 mph, though the aircraft did see 130 mph winds at 10,000 feet, which suggests the surface winds should be of Category 3 strength, 115 mph. These stronger winds are apparently not mixing down to the surface in the usual fashion. A sonde dropped in the eye at 11:20am AST recorded a central pressure of 945 mb, about 6 mb higher than what NHC was estimating in their 11am AST advisory. Though conditions for intensification will remain favorable through Sunday afternoon, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and warm water temperatures of 28.5°C, we can expect only slow intensification of Igor. With such a huge eye, it will take Igor considerable time for it to bring the winds in this new eyewall back to Category 3 strength, and it will be difficult for the hurricane to be stronger than a high-end Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds when it makes its closest pass by Bermuda Sunday night.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:50 am AST Saturday September 18, 2010. A 22-mile wide inner eyewall was collapsing, and being replaced by a huge 92-mile diameter outer eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
Hurricane warnings are flying for Bermuda, and winds are starting to rise on the island. Winds were blowing out of the northeast and had risen to 22 mph as of noon local time today. Igor's outer rain bands are now visible on Bermuda radar, and will reach the island late this afternoon. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 340 miles to the north of its center. Igor will be moving at about 12 - 13 mph during its approach to Bermuda, so the island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near 7 - 9pm AST tonight. Hurricane force winds will arrive at the island near 8 - 10pm AST Sunday night, and last for 8 - 10 hours. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes the island near midnight Sunday night, and Bermuda's battering by tropical storm force winds will not be as long as Igor moves away, perhaps 12 - 14 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 2 hurricane conditions to arrive at the island on Sunday night, with waves of 20 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones. If Igor remains below Category 3 strength, as currently appears likely, damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. According to AIR Worldwide, "Homes in Bermuda are typically one or two stories and constructed of 'Bermuda Stone,' a locally quarried limestone, or of concrete blocks. Roofs are commonly made of limestone slate tiles cemented together. Commercial buildings, typically of reinforced concrete construction, rarely exceed six stories. In both residential and commercial buildings, window openings are generally small and window shutters are common. These features make Bermuda's building stock quite resistant to winds, and homes are designed to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of up to 150 mph."

Bermuda's hurricane history
Igor is similar in strength and projected track to Hurricane Fabian of 2003. Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It was the most damaging hurricane ever to hit the island, with $355 million in damage. Fabian's storm surge killed four people crossing a causeway on the island. These were the first hurricane deaths on Bermuda since 1926. The most powerful hurricane on record to strike Bermuda was the Category 4 Havana-Bermuda Hurricane, which hit on October 22, 1926, with 135 mph winds. The hurricane sank two British warships, claiming 88 lives, but no one was killed on the island. The deadliest hurricane to affect the island occurred on September 12, 1839, when a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and an 11-foot storm surge hit, tearing off the roofs of hundreds of buildings and wrecking several ships. An estimated 100 people were killed (source: Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones, by David Longshore.)

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low to moderate for the next four days, and 94L should be able to develop into a tropical depression if it can fight off the dry air to its north. The ECMWF model develops 94L into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 30% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Steering currents favor 94L moving northwest out to sea.

Typhoon Fanapi
The strongest typhoon of the very quiet Western Pacific typhoon season is now Typhoon Fanapi, a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi is on track to hit Taiwan on Sunday morning as a Category 3 typhoon, then hit mainland China on Monday morning as a tropical storm. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at 04:45 UTC on September 17, 2010, as it approached Taiwan from the Philippine Sea. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather off the coast of South Texas is due to an region of upper level winds that are spreading out, encouraging thunderstorm updrafts to pull more air aloft. I don't expect this region to develop due to its close proximity to the coast. The NOGAPS model is predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now. The GFS model has backed off developing anything in the Caribbean next week.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting scott39:
Thanks, If the high moves E off of the whole Gulf Coast, how does the steering work?


The further the high moves east the more poleward the movement. The stronger a high entrenches on the Gulf Coast, the further West ie.Alex, Hermine, and Karl.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm sorry but you're already DQ'd for too many guesses...but I will send you the name when it's revealed. It may not be tonite. Any more clues would be another night with everybody starting fresh.


ACK! Too many guesses? I didn't realize there was a limit. *G* Thanks though, because it will haunt me if I don't find out now.
Gah! Cough up the name already! I'm dyin' here. haha

Notice posible spin at 15N 58W?
lol that system that the cmc had developing and heading to tx is a huge track difference still develops it but takes a karl track lol and yes it develops a storm in the sw carribean in 5-6 days from now
And I love chocolate. I ate a dry bowl of chocolate lucky charms after seeing the cake. It was the only thing chocolate in the house!
1507. mbjjm
78mph the highest surface winds found in Igor at this point. Where did the 100mph winds go?
1508. xcool
scott39 haha
Quoting Greyelf:
Lol...I'll give my second more obscure choice... "Elsie" as in short for LLC. :)


No, Greyelf! You just DQ's yourself! LOL
1510. WXTXN
Since your taking your sweet time revealing Cosmic Events I'm guessing again...Tutt?
Blog needs to get back to Bermuda in case they need us. Though why they'd turn to this chocolate crazed shift is beyond me. I have 3 aye votes for reveal now. 0 votes for wait and give me another chance at that (delicious) cake. It was good. I'll allow another 5 minutes for a straight up and down vote.
1513. mbjjm
2am ast NHC Advisory out, down to 90mph. 949mb.
1514. Greyelf
ah well..I decided to take a chance since I rarely make the night shift and figured I'd never be around tomorrow night to wait for another clue. I may have to have the name emailed too. :)
1515. xcool
getting about that time oct storm in Caribbean.models shows
1516. NRAamy
Reveal!!!!!!!
Quoting xcool:
getting about that time oct storm in Caribbean.models shows


Full of good news this morning!!
1518. Greyelf
I vote now, but that's cuz I'm DQ'd and can't win anyway.....lol
94L=60%
1520. xcool
traumaboyy hell yeah and damm tired too lol
1521. WXTXN
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Blog needs to get back to Bermuda in case they need us. Though why they'd turn to this chocolate crazed shift is beyond me. I have 3 aye votes for reveal now. 0 votes for wait and give me another chance at that (delicious) cake. It was good. I'll allow another 5 minutes for a straight up and down vote.
start fresh tomorrow night
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190544
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1455 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
I am looking at the FSU site CMC. Yes there is an ill defined system crossing southern Yucatan maybe into BOC. That is followed by another small one that must correspond to the one GFS has been showing for some time
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Blog needs to get back to Bermuda in case they need us. Though why they'd turn to this chocolate crazed shift is beyond me. I have 2 aye votes for reveal now. 0 votes for wait and give me another chance at that (delicious) cake. It was good. I'll allow another 5 minutes for a straight up and down vote.
Not to worry, Portlight will start the process, on all of our behaves. All we need to do is keep them funded.
1525. mbjjm
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Blog needs to get back to Bermuda in case they need us. Though why they'd turn to this chocolate crazed shift is beyond me. I have 2 aye votes for reveal now. 0 votes for wait and give me another chance at that (delicious) cake. It was good. I'll allow another 5 minutes for a straight up and down vote.


Have been watching Link which has a live webcam and live streaming radio and they are mostly playing hip hop, not much coverage tropical storm conditions still offshore
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Blog needs to get back to Bermuda in case they need us. Though why they'd turn to this chocolate crazed shift is beyond me. I have 3 aye votes for reveal now. 0 votes for wait and give me another chance at that (delicious) cake. It was good. I'll allow another 5 minutes for a straight up and down vote.
Sierra?
Well, almost one am here. I need to go to bed. Night all!!!
1528. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:
94L=60%


We got a red circle, they used the red crayon! XD

It will be interesting to see if 94L holds together tomorrow, if it does, then 14L seems likely.
1529. mbjjm
94L might ake a track like earl.
1530. WXTXN
No more watch box in the western Gulf? I will still be keeping an eye on it...
1531. Greyelf
Night, Aislinnpaps!
well I'm out too all have a great night and Cosmic I will check tomorrow and see what her name is.....

I also want to say Hey and by to the Great Night shift.... It is always good to check in on the "Night Shift"
Taco :o)
1535. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:


We got a red circle, they used the red crayon! XD

It will be interesting to see if 94L holds together tomorrow, if it does, then 14L seems likely.
What do you think about the dry air pushing south?
1536. CalTex
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I am looking at the FSU site CMC. Yes there is an ill defined system crossing southern Yucatan maybe into BOC. That is followed by another small one that must correspond to the one GFS has been showing for some time


Umm, please don't wishcast anything into the GOM. Then again, I guess I'd want to know ahead of time.
1537. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
What do you think about the dry air pushing south?


That's one of the reasons why I'm not 99% sure 94L will be able to make it. (Always leave a 1% out just in case LOL)

It battled the dry air in front of it but that one pushing south should be a little harder.
1539. xcool
94l hmmm
1540. JRRP
wow 60% ?
1541. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:


That's one of the reasons why I'm not 99% sure 94L will be able to make it. (Always leave a 1% out just in case LOL)

It battled the dry air in front of it but that one pushing south should be a little harder.
But look behind the big wave coming off faster and 94l is not moving fast so...
1542. JLPR2
I must 94L surprised me, I wasn't expecting it to look so good so soon. XD

1543. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
But look behind the big wave coming off faster and 94l is not moving fast so...


That would actually help, more humidity to fight off the dry air.
1544. WXTXN
interesting second vort max now coming over Corpus Christi evident in the velocity loop: Link If this had more time over water it could have been a little karl clone. sustained at 27 gusting to 34 knts at bobhall pier now with no rain.../strong>
Quoting taco2me61:
well I'm out too all have a great night and Cosmic I will check tomorrow and see what her name is.....

I also want to say Hey and by to the Great Night shift.... It is always good to check in on the "Night Shift"
Taco :o)
Back at you. We may have some, not so smooth edges, but in general all here now have the best of intentions. G'night to you as well.
Quoting sunlinepr:
October
Typical locations and tracks in October.

The favorable conditions found during September begin to decay in October ....... a reverse trend to the eastward progression of June through August.[13]



Typical locations and tracks in November.

Wind shear from westerlies increases substantially ....... formed in early November 2008.



Cool Maps! Do you happen to know of a map like these for each of the other earlier months?

I'd like to see those. Thx in advance.
1547. Gearsts
Good night, Night Crew. Enjoyed the interaction. Hope to have fun tomorrow too. Best wishes to Bermuda. They'll have quite a long period of heavy weather.
1549. Gearsts
Deep red Burst!
Cosmic
1551. Relix
94L won't make it and if it barely does it will pass well north of the islands.

Man I am so bearish lately on these systems =P!
1552. NRAamy
Cosmic!!!!! What's the name!!??
1553. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:
I must 94L surprised me, I wasn't expecting it to look so good so soon. XD


agree
1554. Relix
I can't understand that WNW movement though....

Quoting NRAamy:
Cosmic!!!!! What's the name!!??
Yes..that's the name.
1556. NRAamy
Your dogs name is Cosmic??!!!!

( slamming head against computer )
1557. xcool
Latest ECMWF come soon
1558. WXTXN
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Cosmic
R U KIDDING her names COSMIC? WoW
1559. JRRP
Quoting MercForHire:


Cool Maps! Do you happen to know of a map like these for each of the other earlier months?

I'd like to see those. Thx in advance.


You can get them at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane

"Cosmic"? haha My life is complete now. :)

Did you guys notice in WU's flash tracker of Igor, on Sept 14th his little hurricane icon is light pink? I guess they gave him the benefit of the doubt for making Cat 5 briefly.
Cosmic's a good girl. A little old with a hip/leg problem, but still happy. And tired, like this Cosmic.
1564. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
I can't understand that WNW movement though....



Probably it will feel the weakness left behind by Igor and Julia but then the ridge strengthens and west it goes...
1565. Gearsts
Quoting Relix:
I can't understand that WNW movement though....

Moving west right now.
Quoting JLPR2:
I must 94L surprised me, I wasn't expecting it to look so good so soon. XD



Wow...that is suprising
1567. Relix
Quoting JLPR2:


Probably it will feel the weakness left behind by Igor and Julia but then the ridge strengthens and west it goes...


But there's no weakness there =P
1568. Gearsts
Link WV loop Look at the flow in front of 94L.Everything is moving w to wsw so ummm...I dont know lol
1569. JRRP
1570. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


But there's no weakness there =P


I didn't say there was a weakness there, or it would be moving NW. XD It's off to the WNW of the system.
Quoting mbjjm:
78mph the highest surface winds found in Igor at this point. Where did the 100mph winds go?


Igor is breaking down and fast, great news for Bermudians. Shear, Shear, Shear


1572. LeMoyne
Quoting sunlinepr:
94L taking some fuel...


I couldn't watch Igor Half-Eye's death spiral so lookin at 94L ...
As the NE hotter air pushed SW and lifted that area the line of storms ran E-W and the disturbance hooked back E as it quit. The draw from that line of storm brought two other centers from 30W north. The first went a little east and fired off the big blob - latest Funktop/Rainbow show the firing continuing a third of the way around around the third vortex - center at 30W15N. Can also see the circulation tighten up around it. The flow down from NE is not too dry - currently Julia's trail and outflow. Moisture input in area evident from continuing storms off Azores(!) OOPS CV (north of islands) PLENTY of more moisture seemimg to converge on the area from Africa's coast. Officially at 60% now - brighter and redder and (lol) more red than Igor ... Lisa within a day.
1573. WXTXN
Peace out cub scouts.
Typhoon Fanapi making landfall in Taiwan

Quoting Relix:


But there's no weakness there =P


There looks to be a weak TUTT out in front of 94L. Look at the Mama Jama behind 94L.
So there will be Lisa....
Quoting LeMoyne:

I couldn't watch Igor Half-Eye's death spiral so lookin at 94L ...
As the NE hotter air pushed SW and lifted that area the line of storms ran E-W and the disturbance hooked back E as it quit. The draw from that line of storm brought two other centers from 30W north. The first went a little east and fired off the big blob - latest Funktop/Rainbow show the firing continuing a third of the way around around the third vortex - center at 30W15N. Can also see the circulation tighten up around it. The flow down from NE is not too dry - currently Julia's trail and outflow. Moisture input in area evident from continuing storms off Azores (north of islands) PLENTY of more moisture seemimg to converge on the area from Africa's coast. Officially at 60% now - brighter and redder and (lol) more red than Igor ... Lisa within a day.
Quoting BreadandCircuses:
Typhoon Fanapi making landfall in Taiwan


why no wobbles?...Not sure I've seen an eye move tghat smoothly for so long.
1578. WXTXN
Quoting BreadandCircuses:
Typhoon Fanapi making landfall in Taiwan

that thing really deepened prior to landfall...
Quoting PrivateIdaho:

why no wobbles?...Not sure I've seen an eye move tghat smoothly for so long.


Less atmospheric forces in that neck of the woods.
aaaaah! could be....thanks!
1581. JLPR2
The lower area right at the coast is looking suspicious.


Loop
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
aaaaah! could be....thanks!


I was being serious, lol.
Good night, hope Julia takes all the punch out from Igor tonight.... Hope Bermuda will escape OK.... We still have some days to go until November 30
Do you know the name of those small islands it hit earlier?
Quoting BreadandCircuses:
Typhoon Fanapi making landfall in Taiwan

1585. LeMoyne
Quoting sunlinepr:
So there will be Lisa....

You can see like a jerk as it tightens up ...
Can see outlines of 3 or 4 stable low level arms - Im a noob out on a limb but I watched Igor draw that spiral for the last week so ... 94L(isa)goer ... at least right now ;-)
Gooooood morning, WU night shift. What's shakin'?
TAKE A LOOK AT AFRICA , Good night

Link
1588. xcool
:)
Quoting sunlinepr:
TAKE A LOOK AT AFRICA , Good night

Link



It's dead!

Looks like we got one last wave coming off Africa and that's all.
A hurricane will stair step with it's primary driver. Driver behind the cyclone will stair step w to wnw to nw. Driver in front of the cyclone will stair step N to NE to E. All cyclones want to go north, the drivers prevent or enable.
Quoting weatherwart:
Gooooood morning, WU night shift. What's shakin'?
It's been interesting but you're a day late and a dollar short...everyone is fading out...including me...later!
Ah, there will always be something else interesting coming up, Idaho. That's weather for ya'. Goodnight!
Quoting weatherwart:
Gooooood morning, WU night shift. What's shakin'?


Good Morning!!
1595. xcool
buzz
Quoting swflurker:
Do you know the name of those small islands it hit earlier?


I looked it up, the small westernmost island is the sparsely populated Ishigaki Island and the other one is Iriomote Island, which has a population of less than 2,000.Link
1597. WXTXN
Quoting swflurker:
Do you know the name of those small islands it hit earlier?
They are called the "archipelago of use Google Earth"
Hey trauma, how you doing? I'm glad to see Igor powering down before hitting Bermuda. At the same time, it's a little sad to see these giants begin their inevitable death spiral.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FANAPI (T1011)
15:00 PM JST September 19 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland Taiwan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fanapi (980 hPa) located at 22.8N 120.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.8N 116.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 23.6N 112.4E - Tropical Depression
raining here right now
Quoting xcool:
buzz


still up...thought you was "tired as hell" two hours ago
1602. xcool
traumaboyy yeah i was wait on Latest ECMWF
Quoting weatherwart:
Hey trauma, how you doing? I'm glad to see Igor powering down before hitting Bermuda. At the same time, it's a little sad to see these giants begin their inevitable death spiral.


I know.....but amazing we can sit at home or work and watch these monsters in near real time from birth to death......
1604. IKE
00Z ECMWF sends another one into the Bay of Campeche.
1605. xcool
1606. xcool
lmaoo
1607. IKE
240 hour ECMWF...

boc when??? same path like karl or a bit higher
1609. xcool
1610. JLPR2
Wow, almost at 15N from 12N yesterday. XD

AL, 94, 2010091906, , BEST, 0, 145N, 302W, 25, 1008, DB

It's getting there
19/0600 UTC 14.9N 29.9W T1.5/1.5 94L
hmmm
Question here, when does the CV season usually end? Waves keep barreling off the coastline as we speak.
1613. JLPR2
850mb Vort looking slightly stronger with 94L and there is an area of vorticity just off the coast of Africa accompanying the strongest convection.

1614. JLPR2
Quoting MoltenIce:
Question here, when does the CV season usually end? Waves keep barreling off the coastline as we speak.


I believe it last till this month.
Quoting IKE:
00Z ECMWF sends another one into the Bay of Campeche.
What does this mean? Is this the same one GFS has all over the place?
1616. JLPR2
This is what the GFS developed as it entered the Caribbean, PG46L, just a little bunch of clouds at the moment.

uh oh possible HYPERCANE in Carib

12 people will say poof because they are amazed by an ignore button on their computer.
1618. JLPR2
Night/Morning all!
I don't get it....blog buzy last few nights with possiblilities of igor and gang.....tonight...bearing down on Bermuda...blog dead!
Quoting traumaboyy:
I don't get it....blog buzy last few nights with possiblilities of igor and gang.....tonight...bearing down on Bermuda...blog dead!


Storm weakening. Might even be a TS as it passes by bermuda.
Quoting JLPR2:
This is what the GFS developed as it entered the Caribbean, PG46L, just a little bunch of clouds at the moment.

Not labelled yet on the NHC, possibly soon. Proto-Matthew?
Quoting winter123:


Storm weakening. Might even be a TS as it passes by bermuda.


That is excellent news!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


That is excellent news!!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg
UMMMM. Does anybody see this? Maybe I'm still asleep and it's not really there?

Link
Quoting traumaboyy:


That is excellent news!!


Yes good news indeed. :)
1626. LeMoyne
Quoting MoltenIce:
Question here, when does the CV season usually end? Waves keep barreling off the coastline as we speak.

I think you have the answer there... not yet.
The depth of my noobish understanding is that the main driver is Saharan Heat into East African Monsoon.

The system coming off the coast behind 94L looks ripe with moisture and vorticity.
94L IS A goer, maybe the one behind starves or disrupts it, but 94L's central area has just about completed a circle of storm firing, The first line of storms established outflow to the NE and it has a strong arm forming up behind that fading arm and another shaping up off to the SW. Pretty much all views shows the circulation tightening up in the last few frames. Spiral shape with collapse heading for Julia's trail now pushed out SW in front of it ... Lisa today or tomorrow morning unless the big system behind it starves it.
I have to say the wave off of Venezuela PG46L looks good too. The race is on!
You can kind of see it on Lake Charles long range radar.
Link
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
UMMMM. Does anybody see this? Maybe I'm still asleep and it's not really there?

Link


good morning maam....I don't see nothin ...incorrect flash player on work pc
Quoting traumaboyy:


good morning maam....I don't see nothin ...incorrect flash player on work pc


Morning Trauma. It looks like a spin, a very obvious spin, due south of the TX/LA line moving north. Will try to post a still.
Quoting traumaboyy:


good morning maam....I don't see nothin ...incorrect flash player on work pc


Lol. Or maybe I am still asleep. Wow! No coffee needed here! Maybe it's upper level. But the HDW HIGH looks like upper level anticyclone?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Or maybe I am still asleep. Wow! No coffee needed here! Maybe it's upper level. But the HDW HIGH looks like upper level anticyclone?


glad whatever it is is very close to land.....Gomex could produce another "no-name" storm nearly overnight....when was that one that hit panhandle florida 92 I believe...killed some folks on coast
1632. LeMoyne
Quoting MoltenIce:
... when does the CV season usually end?

Short answer: Not until East Atl view stops showing tropical waves, storms, hurricanes and majors.

Every daylight frame has a hurricane in frame or just leaving as a major (near major?) except 1800 yesterday which shows 94L just as it started to fire off ...
Quoting traumaboyy:


glad whatever it is is very close to land.....Gomex could produce another "no-name" storm nearly overnight....when was that one that hit panhandle florida 92 I believe...killed some folks on coast


Yeah. You're right about the gulf spinning up quickly. This one's pretty far off shore but seems to be moving quickly so hopefully nothing will come of it. Even Humberto took a life. :( But in the man's defense he just went outside to see what in the world was going on and his carport came down on him. Just a Little gun shy 'round here. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah. You're right about the gulf spinning up quickly. This one's pretty far off shore but seems to be moving quickly so hopefully nothing will come of it. Even Humberto took a life. :( But in the man's defense he just went outside to see what in the world was going on and his carport came down on him. Just a Little gun shy 'round here. :)


Completely understand maam!
I'm drinking and having a nice big steaming plate of crow. I cannot sleep when a storm is about to landfall. This looks to be a direct bermuda landfall too which has never happened recently. 50+ mile eye on a 5 mile island. It would be crazy. I wish safety on everyone riding this storm out. I'll be up to talk until this makes landfall probably.
Quoting winter123:
I'm drinking and having a nice big steaming plate of crow. I cannot sleep when a storm is about to landfall. This looks to be a direct bermuda landfall too which has never happened recently. 50+ mile eye on a 5 mile island. It would be crazy. I wish safety on everyone riding this storm out. I'll be up to talk until this makes landfall probably.


I know what you mean. I've followed every blob, storm, hurricane there's been since Faye in '08. From beginning to end. I am very glad to see Igor downgraded to a one. Even they're not a walk in the park though.
Hurricane Igor has made a turn to the NNE just in time to miss Bermuda. It has weakened to a Cat 1 storm. Although the wind field is still quite large, the winds that will hit Bermuda will not be strong enough to do any significant damage to the island.

Monday will be a snow day for Bermuda, except for some road crews that will pick up the stray limb here and there that has fallen.

The causeway, which is exposed to the ocean, may suffer some damage, but that would be surprising should it happen.
Quoting winter123:
I'm drinking and having a nice big steaming plate of crow. I cannot sleep when a storm is about to landfall. This looks to be a direct bermuda landfall too which has never happened recently. 50+ mile eye on a 5 mile island. It would be crazy. I wish safety on everyone riding this storm out. I'll be up to talk until this makes landfall probably.


ROFL....Drink one for me pardner.....bermuda gonna have hell of a day any way you look at it!
Quoting KennyNebraska:
Hurricane Igor has made a turn to the NNE just in time to miss Bermuda. It has weakened to a Cat 1 storm. Although the wind field is still quite large, the winds that will hit Bermuda will not be strong enough to do any significant damage to the island.

Monday will be a snow day for Bermuda, except for some road crews that will pick up the stray limb here and there that has fallen.

The causeway, which is exposed to the ocean, may suffer some damage, but that would be surprising should it happen.


Yep. I see the NNE turn too.

Those that have traveled to cover the storm in Bermuda just got a nice four - five day all expense paid vacation!

CycloneOz pays his own way. I bet he'll be very happy when he wakes up this morning to see that it would have been a wasted trip.
A little concerned about area at 12n 50w see it has a pg146L attached to it, was that just initialized.Looking at water vapor the moisture is sure piling up in the eastern Caribbean. Think its just waiting for a match.
Look at the funktop loop, Igor has green in his loop, has not been there for awhile so he looks to be doing something now.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Look at the funktop loop, Igor has green in his loop, has not been there for awhile so he looks to be doing something now.


I would hazard a guess that he doing something. He is dying.
1644. LeMoyne
Both spots in the Gulf look pretty ripe... TX/LA showed a hot spot and a bit of ccw spin & Igor drew a lot of wet off Venezuela which fired off ccw but I bet on 94 L (vorticity posted 1613. JLPR2)

I see three 1degree diameter vortices in the last daylight frame of east atl: @ 32W14N is going SW creating the first arm with help from the flow from NE lifting the local wet and ?convection from that drew @ 29W14N a little ways to the NE where it fired off a major cell as it encountered the NE flow and the main @ 29W14W moved up between them and a hot spiral ran around it --see posted adt [1610. JLPR2] and Funk/Rainbow view -
94L(isa) center just N of 30W15N ?going WNW?.

Dang that Venezuela spot looking really solid now but 94L has established out flow across the N and NE quadrants - you can see it spin up and push outflow overtop the NE-SW flow in Cent Atl Funktop. Baby blue spreads straight thru the loop, into the not so dry wake of Julia and out of frame to the east.
They all die it's a part of life.
Quoting LeMoyne:
Both spots in the Gulf look pretty ripe... TX/LA showed a hot spot and a bit of ccw spin & Igor drew a lot of wet off Venezuela which fired off ccw but I bet on 94 L (vorticity:1610. JLPR2)

I see three 1degree diameter vortices in that last daylight frame of east atl: @ 32W14N is going SW creating the first arm with help from the flow from NE lifting the local wet and ?convection from that drew @ 29W14N a little ways to the NE where it fired off a major cell as it encountered the NE flow and the main @ 29W14W moved up between them and a hot spiral ran around it --see posted adt [1610. JLPR2] and any view - 94L(isa) center just N of 30W15N ?going WNW?.
Both spots in the Gulf look pretty ripe... TX/LA showed a hot spot and a bit of ccw spin & Igor drew a lot of wet off Venezuela which fired off ccw but I bet on 94 L (vorticity posted 1613. JLPR2)

I see three 1degree diameter vortices in the last daylight frame of east atl: @ 32W14N is going SW creating the first arm with help from the flow from NE lifting the local wet and ?convection from that drew @ 29W14N a little ways to the NE where it fired off a major cell as it encountered the NE flow and the main @ 29W14W moved up between them and a hot spiral ran around it --see posted adt [1610. JLPR2] and Funk/Rainbow view -
94L(isa) center just N of 30W15N ?going WNW?.

Dang that Venezuela spot looking really solid now but 94L has established out flow across the N and NE quadrants - you can see it spin up and push outflow overtop the NE-SW flow in Cent Atl Funktop. Baby blue spreads straight thru the loop, into the not so dry wake of Julia and out of frame to the east.


Thanks for posting that. Maybe I'm not crazy. :) But what is ccw spin?
Igor may just turn to the nne just in time. If Oz is there it's sure been a bust of a season so far for him.
Trough further west now.
Quoting gordydunnot:
If Oz is there it's sure been a bust of a season so far for him.


I am pretty sure he is not there, but you never really know with him.

And with Bonnie being the only system to hit the U.S. in two years, I would have to agree with you about the bust thing.
Tried to post 200mb streamlines from cimss page won't post.
Ok finally catching up on the models. This was an eye catcher.

EURO at the same time.

1653. tkeith
Has Igor taken a more NNE turn? Or a pervervial "wobble"?

GFS

1655. tkeith
On second look maybe due North?
Quoting tkeith:
Has Igor taken a more NNE turn? Or a pervervial "wobble"?



Yeah, it has. Right after the 5AM. Since I was one of the few up, I got to see it first.

There he goes! I guarantee this is no wobble. This is Igor moving on out.
NOGAPS as far as it goes to 180hr

Link
1658. LeMoyne
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


... what is ccw spin?

Ahh so you like my noobish doomcasting - lol - seriously 94L did spin up counter clockwise last night, all night...

The system behind it looks like it comes off the coast ready to go too in case the dry air NE-SW flow wipes out 94L and if not ...likely another pair of TCs -zomg-
1659. tkeith
Quoting KennyNebraska:


Yeah, it has. Right after the 5AM. Since I was one of the few up, I got to see it first.

There he goes! I guarantee this is no wobble. This is Igor moving on out.
The west side of an more East moving storm should less destructive for Bermuda. I thought it might weaken a bit, but looks like it's gonna be at least a Cat2.
Well that's the four main models I know of. Hard to see that much agreement and not think something will be threatening at least around that time. Long ways out though. :)
Quoting tkeith:
The west side of an more East moving storm should less destructive for Bermuda. I thought it might weaken a bit, but looks like it's gonna be at least a Cat2.


NHC says that it is not going to get any stronger than it is. Right now, it is a Cat 1 hurricane.

If anything, it is probably going to weaken even more.
All hype-casting for Igor should stop right now. This is going to be a non-event.
1663. tkeith
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Well that's the four main models I know of. Hard to see that much agreement and not think something will be threatening at least around that time. Long ways out though. :)
I dont think these are phantom runs Homeless, There's got to be something up for us down the road. The northern part of the ITCZ is kickin up a lot of convection this mornin. Beell thought the other day this would be the starting point for a TC.
Quoting LeMoyne:

Ahh so you like my noobish doomcasting - lol - seriously 94L did spin up counter clockwise last night, all night...

The system behind it looks like it comes off the coast ready to go too in case the dry air NE-SW flow wipes out 94L and if not ...likely another pair of TCs -zomg-


Ah ok. Counter clockwise. Lol. You're noob casting is fine. And to me looks like 94l is spinning ccw. Wonder if it will make it across. The million dollar question this season. So far have only seen the globals that look like strait out to sea then change their mind and hook back west.
1665. tkeith
Quoting KennyNebraska:


NHC says that it is not going to get any stronger than it is. Right now, it is a Cat 1 hurricane.

If anything, it is probably going to weaken even more.
That's good, very good. Bermuda should shoulder a Cat1 without much problem.
Can't post the 200mb streamlines from cimss page but the trough that's been around 60 to 65 west is now over 75 to 80w not a good sign, hope it doesn't stay there for long.I don't want to start anything but the dreaded steering pattern maybe about to change.
Quoting tkeith:
That's good, very good. Bermuda should shoulder a Cat1 without much problem.


I agree. Snow day for Bermuda tomorrow! :)
Morning, all. Cotillion - thanks for the HUGE brekkie you left in my blog. Only thing to add to it would be a bit of steaming oatmeal for those farther north!

Just waking up - I'll read back in a moment, but in the meantime, how's Bermuda holding up?
1669. IKE
Latest GFS keeps 94L east of 40W through 132 hours and has it weakening in day 6. Shows a 1007mb low in the SW Caribbean Sea....

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT IGOR HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE AIRCRAFT
DID NOT REPORT AN EYEWALL...AND SOME DRY AIR ALSO APPEARS TO BE
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CIRCULATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 91 KT AND A
MAXIMUM SFMR READING OF 68 KT. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE
DECREASED...THE SFMR DATA SHOWS THAT THE WIND FIELD OF IGOR
CONTINUES TO BROADEN...AND THE 50-KT AND 64-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IGOR WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BY
BERMUDA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SUBJECTS THAT ISLAND TO A LONG
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY
LASTING AT LEAST 24 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...IGOR WILL TRANSITION TO A
POWERFUL AND LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
Quoting tkeith:
I dont think these are phantom runs Homeless, There's got to be something up for us down the road. The northern part of the ITCZ is kickin up a lot of convection this mornin. Beell thought the other day this would be the starting point for a TC.


I'm still catching up after a couple days but that would make sense. Just because the CV season is or will be waning I don't see this season giving up that easily. I was surprised when studying the tracks of the past a lot of the majors didn't even begin to develop until on this side of the Atlantic.
1672. LeMoyne
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ok finally catching up on the models. This was an eye catcher...

Is that 94L(isa) at 50W30N ??
-----
I think Igor is perversely trying to wobble into Bermuda - he bled out into the front and all over Julia but he may have gotten enough room to hit directly ... 18+ hrs of tropical storm+ from Igors biggest arm should be enough dontcha think?
Quoting LeMoyne:

... 18+ hrs of tropical storm+ from Igors biggest arm should be enough dontcha think?


Bermuda can easily handle whatever Igor has left as far as outer bands go. And the storm center will miss the island completely.
I say 12n 50w is going to be surprise excitement for today.
1675. IKE
Next Sunday at this time...168 hours...6Z GFS.....

Quoting LeMoyne:

Is that 94L(isa) at 50W30N ??
-----
I think Igor is perversely trying to wobble into Bermuda - he bled out into the front and all over Julia but he may have gotten enough room to hit directly ... 18+ hrs of tropical storm+ from Igors biggest arm should be enough dontcha think?


Good question. I'm not sure. Seems like a lot of time for it to be still that far east. But maybe. I need a bigger CMC. Lol.
1677. tkeith
Quoting IKE:
Next Sunday at this time...168 hours...6Z GFS.....

Looks like I can go ahead and make a tee-time for next Sunday :)
Floater on 94l Link
1679. IKE
Latest GFS has a western Caribbean system crossing Cuba and heading NNE....

Quoting IKE:
Next Sunday at this time...168 hours...6Z GFS.....



I hope this is one run we can take to the bank! :)
Florida out of the woods with this one too, yea yea
1682. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
Looks like I can go ahead and make a tee-time for next Sunday :)


I think you can too. I don't think anything is going to hit the lower 48 in the next 7 days.
HurricaneIgor's heading had turned northward to (6.2degrees north of) NorthNorthWest
from its previous heading of (6.6degrees west of) WestNorthWest
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~14.3mph(~23.1km/h)

18Sep 09amGMT - - 25.1n62.8w - - 110mph - - 939mb - - NHC.Adv.#41
18Sep 12pmGMT - - 25.6n63.2w - - 110mph - - 939mb - - #41A
18Sep 03pmGMT - - 26.0n63.6w - - 110mph - - 939mb - - #42
18Sep 06pmGMT - - 26.6n64.1w - - 105mph - - 945mb - - #42A
18Sep 09pmGMT - - 27.1n64.3w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #43
19Sep 12amGMT - - 27.7n64.5w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #43A
19Sep 03amGMT - - 28.2n64.7w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #44
19Sep 06amGMT - - 28.3n65.1w - - - 90mph - - 949mb - - #44A
19Sep 09amGMT - - 28.9n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45

Copy&paste 25.1n62.8w, 25.6n63.2w, 26.0n63.6w, 26.6n64.1w, 27.1n64.3w-27.7n64.5w, 27.7n64.5w-28.2n64.7w, 28.2n64.7w-28.3n65.1w, 28.3n65.1w-28.9n65.3w, chs, bos, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
My GOM spin still spinning. :) Link

Sorry for the Java link. Flash has decided not to work for me again this morning. I think I need to fire him.
GFS not develop 94L?

Mornin' all.
Goody goody! My boyfriend and I have tickets to the Miami Dolphins home opener next Sunday! It is hard for me to understand these models, but it looks like Miami may just be getting some showers at game time. That is something I can handle.
1688. IKE
GFS shows nothing in the GOM on the entire run. Here's the 12 day(288 hour view)....system going up the east coast and a cold front heading for the SE USA...

1689. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:
GFS not develop 94L?

Mornin' all.


Keeps it east of 40W...weakening it in a weeks time.
So far... Bermuda Triangle has been in full force and worked.

Weakened Colin before getting there.
Diverted and weakened Danielle.
Weakened Fiona before getting there.
Diverting and weakening Igor?

Must have got some secret technology from Georgia.
Quoting IKE:


Keeps it east of 40W...weakening it in a weeks time.


Yeah, seems it doesn't do a whole lot with it, preferring to focus on the Carib.

Euro v GFS again.
1693. surfmom
MorningAll - Looks like Bermuda will still be on the map after Igor passes - Whew!!! Big diff between a cat 1 and a 3 or more. A much better Sunday then I expected.... and that feels GOOD.
Quick Dog walk brb
Looks to me like until the dry-air spigot is turned off, the only Atlantic Basin systems will all be "perimeter." That is, everything from Alex to Karl so far has been shunted off to Mexico/Texas, or been sent to the fishies (though admittedly Earl was good for a scare). The so-called Bermuda High looks mighty short this year, and the Eastern Gulf seems anchored by a rock-solid high of its own. And what about this relentless dry air everywhere?

I'm far, far more worrried about the heat in the Caribbean being unspent this winter, firing up massive Noreasters that heave cold air down onto us on their backsides.

Somebody phone me when we have a MEANINGFUL pattern shift .... :-)
Quoting tkeith:
Looks like I can go ahead and make a tee-time for next Sunday :)


Mornin Tkeith...did not know you were a golfer!
1696. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


Yeah, seems it doesn't do a whole lot with it, preferring to focus on the Carib.

Euro v GFS again.


The odds of anything getting a name, east of 40W, and making it to the lower 48 is about 1%. It's getting too late in the season. That doesn't factor the islands though.

I think when there was Igor, Julia and Karl, that was the absolute peak of this season.

I've read forecasts on here calling for increased lower 48 activity the later half of September. I'm not sure that's going to happen in September. I know models can change, so I'm not completely convinced yet.
1698. IKE
Here's the GOM forecast through September 23rd....

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A NW TO SE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH THU.
..........................................

Here's the Caribbean Sea forecast through Thursday....

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS OVER THE FAR N
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE TODAY
AS HURRICANE IGOR CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
WATERS. MEANWHILE A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON WITH EASTERLY TRADES
RESUMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU.

Appears to be a couple of possible development areas in the next week in the Carribean as discussed in the PREDICT Weather Discussion from yesterday.

Excerpt:

SW Caribbean disturbance: Models project a disturbance (dubbed
PGI88T) to develop in the far southwestern Caribbean Sea over
the next few days. A current ASCAT overpass, however, shows
nothing more than a weak area of convergence at this time (not
shown). This disturbance appears to form and evolve along the
eastern edge of a large cyclonic gyre projected to form across
the far eastern Pacific in the coming days. The models predict
the Atlantic portion of this feature to drift slowly northward
over the next 120 hr with weak pouch/tropical development
possible in 3-5 days (not shown). Most bullish regarding
development are the NOGAPS and Canadian models while the GFS,
ECMWF, and UKMET are much more subdued. In the extended range
beyond 5 days, a few ECMWF ensemble members hint at this
disturbance interacting with the westward-moving component of
PGI46L with genesis possible from either disturbance
(e.g.,
bottom panel in image 15). This will be monitored closely over
the coming days given its location on the western edge of
PREDICT flight operations.


Quoting DestinJeff:
Don't forget this is a La Nina season and will have heavily back-weighted activity.

It is destined to be. Trust me, I read that on the internet.


LOL!! Jeff
1701. Ineluki
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Looks to me like until the dry-air spigot is turned off, the only Atlantic Basin systems will all be "perimeter." That is, everything from Alex to Karl so far has been shunted off to Mexico/Texas, or been sent to the fishies (though admittedly Earl was good for a scare). The so-called Bermuda High looks mighty short this year, and the Eastern Gulf seems anchored by a rock-solid high of its own. And what about this relentless dry air everywhere?

I'm far, far more worrried about the heat in the Caribbean being unspent this winter, firing up massive Noreasters that heave cold air down onto us on their backsides.

Somebody phone me when we have a MEANINGFUL pattern shift .... :-)


Pattern shift has been coming since July. It'll be here any day now. Yup. Just waiting for it to hit...
Quoting IKE:
GFS shows nothing in the GOM on the entire run. Here's the 12 day(288 hour view)....system going up the east coast and a cold front heading for the SE USA...


Think this will give us any help for our 15+ inch rainfall deficit?
morning
a very interesting area of disorganised showers about 800 miles east of the windward islands. it is in an area of little wind shear with little convergence and good divergence. there is little or no 850 mb vorticity. The only model that looks at this area is the Nogaps, which has it as a low approaching the windward islands by tuesday. The gfs carried it fir a few runs and dropped it. nonetheless this area should be watched. as it has happenned before such areas have a tendency to consolidate as they get closer to the islands. this could be the seedling for the first caribbean storm as this are moves westward into the caribbean sea
1706. IKE
Quoting capefearspt:

Think this will give us any help for our 15+ inch rainfall deficit?


Too far out in time to know.
Latest forecast shows Igor completely obliterating Faith's record for lagest wind field, right before he goes extra-tropical.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 41.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 140SW 170NW.
34 KT...330NE 280SE 250SW 330NW.

330NE-280SE (nm) = 700 miles
Faith was 610 miles in diameter.

if i'm interpreting this incorrectly, please let me know :)
Quoting IKE:


The odds of anything getting a name, east of 40W, and making it to the lower 48 is about 1%. It's getting too late in the season. That doesn't factor the islands though.

I think when there was Igor, Julia and Karl, that was the absolute peak of this season.

I've read forecasts on here calling for increased lower 48 activity the later half of September. I'm not sure that's going to happen in September. I know models can change, so I'm not completely convinced yet.


Good points.

94L looks like it's going to take a Julia type path according to the Euro after stalling around for a bit. GFS takes it more WNW, but drops it pretty fast. Maritime interests only, this one it seems.

Yep, I agree; I said that Igor/Julia/Karl was the peak of the season and that this season is a classic. There'll be another burst of activity in the middle-to-late of October or so. A storm or two in the meantime, perhaps. Still one major at least in the offing. Maybe two. Couple of Cat 1s on top, probably.

Generally, as it has been pointed out, most seasons have an active September or October. October will still be above normal, I expect, but this isn't a 1995 or 2005 despite the protests. Still a very active and record breaking season; still hurtling towards 16 to 17 storms.

The difference'll be that in October, while the numbers'll be less, they're more likely to hit something due to the areas in which they develop.

Whether it'll hit the Lower 48, I don't know. Probably be one storm somewhere, at least. Maybe the one the GFS is persistent on, or one later. It's getting later in the day, yes, but there's probably going to be one or two hits.

On the other hand, it's hardly going to turn into 1985 all of a sudden.
1709. augfan
33 degrees in Gaylord,Mich,38 in Houghton, highs in the low 50s. Time to get out the skates and skis, believe this season is closing down.
Water getting colder, Lisa looks headed north, Matthew may not even develop. Oh, there will be a couple skirting the edges but the headlines, IMHO, are about over.

Down the line, SAL is going to be increasingly seriously considered.

1710. Hhunter
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Looks to me like until the dry-air spigot is turned off, the only Atlantic Basin systems will all be "perimeter." That is, everything from Alex to Karl so far has been shunted off to Mexico/Texas, or been sent to the fishies (though admittedly Earl was good for a scare). The so-called Bermuda High looks mighty short this year, and the Eastern Gulf seems anchored by a rock-solid high of its own. And what about this relentless dry air everywhere?

I'm far, far more worrried about the heat in the Caribbean being unspent this winter, firing up massive Noreasters that heave cold air down onto us on their backsides.

Somebody phone me when we have a MEANINGFUL pattern shift .... :-)

??????????????????????????
1711. WxLogic
Good Morning...

Thanks God that Igor is now 85MPH. This should be a breeze compared to what it could have been before.
1712. P451
North America 24HR IR Loop


Java intensive loop here save your work before clicking.

NA: 48 Hour IR Loop with 30 minute increments.

Courtesy of the U of Hawaii
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1420 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...BUT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW APPEARS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
1714. QMiami
up to 70%

Quoting DestinJeff:


I'd like to think we can get out of September, or close to it, without another threat to CONUS (I count Earl). October can still pack a punch, but usually biased to the first half.

That means 3 weeks. 3 weeks, beyond that still a risk but the severity of the risk wanes in my estimation.



October is the most active month in my area.

Excerpt:

In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season. A total of 19 hurricanes have impacted the south Florida mainland in October, compared to 15 in September. A total of 30 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have affected mainland south Florida, also the most of any month.
A look at the 7 other Nino-to-Nina seasons since 1950:

1964: At this point, we were in the middle of Gladys at her strongest. 9-4-4 was the total (remember, the first two tropical storms were nameless). 3-2-2 was left in the season, including Hilda and Isbell. There was a mid November straggler in the form TS12.

1970: We just had TS Felice, leaving the season at 7-3-2. 3-2-0 remained for the season.

1973: Ellen was in the Atlantic, 6-1-1 (inc one STS). 2-1-0 remained.

1988: Gilbert was dying off, Helene was forming: 8-2-1, Helene taking it up to 9-3-2. 3-1-1 left for the season, inc Joan.

1995: Marilyn was in the Atlantic, 13-7-3 at that time. 6-4-2 left for the season, inc Roxanne and Opal.

1998: Georges and Hermine in the Atlantic. Ivan forming shortly. 8-3-2, Ivan taking it to 9-4-2. 5-5-1 left for the season.

2007: Amazing, there was a lull in September and we were in it 3 years ago. Humberto and Ingrid had gone and Jerry was next. 9-3-2 on the doors. 6-3-0 left.
1717. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF FALL CAN NOT GET HERE QUICK ENOUGH...AS SUMMER
WANTS TO GIVE US ONE MORE HEAT WAVE. WE SAW A FEW 100S YESTERDAY
AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION.

HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
GENERALLY 96 TO 98 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON LOCAL
TERRAIN AND EFFECTS. THE "COOL" SPOT WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.
AS FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...ISOLATED CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN OVERALL DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BESIDES THE HEAT TWO OTHER BATTLES ARE IN PLACE TODAY. RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF THE SOIL AND THE
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DROP
OFF INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...MAYBE EVEN A FEW 40S. THIS
WAS THE CASE ON SATURDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. AS FOR RAIN
CHANCES...A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE US 80/INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND IS NOTICEABLE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
JUST WILL NOT DISSIPATE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LOCAL WRF AND NAM
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE NAM HAS HANDLED THE SCENARIO NICELY.
SO WILL TREND POPS CLOSER TO THE MODEL OUTPUT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN SO...ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND LOW CHANCES. WAS PLANNING TO
INTRODUCE THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTH WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE AREAS WITH 10 PERCENT CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND ADD IN WEATHER ALL DAY WITHIN THE 20 PERCENT ZONE.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE OVERALL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OPEN BACK UP AS FAR AS
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. WILL SEE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT ON A WHOLE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...QUESTIONS ARISE AND SOME YELLOW
FLAGS ARE THROWN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON SPECIFICS. HOWEVER THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR. MODELS DEVELOP A POTENTIAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BUILD IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. QUESTIONS HERE WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING. WILL IT BE
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...OR EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK.
QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO TRY TO GET THIS PATTERN NAILED DOWN...BUT
STAY TUNED...BECAUSE IT COULD JUST CHANGE THE WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE.


HurricaneIgor's heading had turned toward dueNorth
from its previous heading of (6.2degrees north of) NorthNorthWest
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~16mph(~25.8km/h)

18Sep 12pmGMT - - 25.6n63.2w - - 110mph - - 939mb - - NHC.Adv.#41A
18Sep 03pmGMT - - 26.0n63.6w - - 110mph - - 939mb - - #42
18Sep 06pmGMT - - 26.6n64.1w - - 105mph - - 945mb - - #42A
18Sep 09pmGMT - - 27.1n64.3w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #43

19Sep 12amGMT - - 27.7n64.5w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #43A
19Sep 03amGMT - - 28.2n64.7w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #44
19Sep 06amGMT - - 28.3n65.1w - - - 90mph - - 949mb - - #44A
19Sep 09amGMT - - 28.9n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45
18Sep 12pmGMT - - 29.6n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45A

Copy&paste 25.6n63.2w, 26.0n63.6w, 26.6n64.1w, 27.1n64.3w, 27.7n64.5w-28.2n64.7w, 28.2n64.7w-28.3n65.1w, 28.3n65.1w-28.9n65.3w, 28.9n65.3w-29.6n65.3w, chs, bos, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
1719. P451
AL94 Floater Imagery

IGOR Floater Imagery


Both pages feature longer loops.


==

RAMMB Floater Imagery - for when SSD isn't up to par.


.

Quoting DestinJeff:
Don't forget this is a La Nina season and will have heavily back-weighted activity.

It is destined to be. Trust me, I read that on the internet.

10.30.10


Now that I am out of the Peruvean prison I see the GFS has a storm at the end of the mont still and the CMC is just down right scary for FL.
Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning, all. Cotillion - thanks for the HUGE brekkie you left in my blog. Only thing to add to it would be a bit of steaming oatmeal for those farther north!

Just waking up - I'll read back in a moment, but in the meantime, how's Bermuda holding up?
Bermuda not holding up well. A flight from NY bringing Croissants and Brioche is cancelled, leaving the hotel guests to fend on just fruit, waffles, pancakes, and omelets for breakfast. Oh, the humanity.
1724. hydrus
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Looks to me like until the dry-air spigot is turned off, the only Atlantic Basin systems will all be "perimeter." That is, everything from Alex to Karl so far has been shunted off to Mexico/Texas, or been sent to the fishies (though admittedly Earl was good for a scare). The so-called Bermuda High looks mighty short this year, and the Eastern Gulf seems anchored by a rock-solid high of its own. And what about this relentless dry air everywhere?

I'm far, far more worrried about the heat in the Caribbean being unspent this winter, firing up massive Noreasters that heave cold air down onto us on their backsides.

Somebody phone me when we have a MEANINGFUL pattern shift .... :-)
Your phone should ring when Igor is out of the picture....Nice wave ready to move off Africa..Some of the models develop this system too.
1725. IKE
Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 8 min 47 sec ago
Rain
81 °F
Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 33 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 52 mph
Pressure: 29.50 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Of those 7 seasons:

1964: Hilda forming in late Sept going into early Oct; Isbell being a mid Oct storm; TS12 was a mid November TS. Landfalls: All three (Hilda - Gulf Coast; Isbell - Florida; TS12 - Central America). Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1.

1970: TS Greta was in late Sept to early Oct; Hurricanes 9 & 10 were Central Atlantic storms in October. Landfalls: One (Greta hitting Yucatan, Florida Keys). Sep 1, Oct 2, Nov 0.

1973: Fran and Gilda in October. Landfalls: One (Gilda hitting Cuba and Bahamas). Sep 0, Oct 2, Nov 0.

1988: Helene was a powerful Cape Verde in the Central Atlantic in September. Isaac was late Sept to early Oct, Joan hitting Nicaragua as a powerful storm in October, Keith rounding out the season. Landfalls: Three (Isaac in Lesser Antilles, Joan - Central America, Keith - Mexico and Florida). (not inc Helene, also Sep) Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1.

1995: Active season remaining with Noel and Opal in September, Pablo through to Tanya in October. Tanya extended into first few days of November. Landfalls: 3 (Opal - Mexico, Gulf Coast; Roxanne - Mexico; Sebastien - Lesser Antilles). Sep 2, Oct 4.

1998: Past Ivan, Cape Verde season still going with Jeanne and Karl. Mitch was the unfortunate vocal point left, being a Category 5 and causing damage beyond what most people could ever fathom. Landfalls: 1 (Mitch - Central America). Sep 2, Oct 2, Nov 1.

2007: Cape Verde season still to spit out notorious Karen. Lorenzo going under RI in the BoC. Noel was the main focal point with his damage to the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. Landfalls: 3 (Lorenzo - Mexico, Noel - Cuba, Bahamas, Haiti; Olga - Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic). Sep 4, Oct 1, Nov 0 (Dec 1).
1738. hydrus
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Bermuda not holding up well. A flight from NY bringing Croissants and Brioche is cancelled, leaving the hotel guests to fend on just fruit, waffles, pancakes, and omelets for breakfast. Oh, the humanity.
The Hurricane Hunters have purchased 70 cases of croissants and 660 lbs of brioche for the grief stricken upper crust. And should arrive before the center of Igor makes land. The CMC actually picks up on Two systems in the S.W. Caribbean. One that crosses over from the Pacific, and another that moves off the South American coast...Link
In 2005 for comparison, Rita had just formed...

11-5-2 remained. That was 2005.

If we include Rita's full history, 2005 was already 17-10-5.

Now, this is not meant to be a slight on the 2010 season. Any comparisons of numbers 'til this day doesn't mean a lot.

However!

If 2005 could only get 11 storms left from this date and take the other comparisons as well... let's just say any chance of reaching 20 storms or so is very, very slim.
...oh my god...we're through the looking glass, Alice...
Quoting DestinJeff:


I'd like to think we can get out of September, or close to it, without another threat to CONUS (I count Earl). October can still pack a punch, but usually biased to the first half.

That means 3 weeks. 3 weeks, beyond that still a risk but the severity of the risk wanes in my estimation.



Not just in your estimation, it's a statistical fact that the chances of cyclone development drop sharply after mid-October. Still another 3 weeks of breath holding though.
I see that we're here again, a mere week after "peak" day, with two named systems still spinning, another to likely be classified today, another healthy candidate coming off the coast of Africa (lower than 94L), yet at least one very healthy wave in mid-Africa after that, still record or near-record high TCHP numbers in the Caribbean along with warm (and still warming) SSTs all across the MDR...and people are talking about season being over, talking about breaking out the skis and mittens, talking about things being on the downhill.

That's a little premature, I think. And that's not just my opinion. Some facts for the class:
  • Many of the more active seasons have seen more named storms in October than in September. 1995 and 2005 come immediately to mind.
  • Some of the worst, most powerful and/or destructive storms on record have been late-season surprises. Mitch, Wilma, Kate, Michelle, Opal, et al.
  • Even discounting October/November, there are still nearly two full weeks left in September.

Yes, CV season is winding down, finally, after giving us a number of storms including the very powerful quartet of Danielle, Earl, Julia, and--of course--Igor. But there is a lot of storm season left. And remember this: a model that was wrong yesterday in predicting where and when a storm would form may have been no less wrong than one that today says that storm won't be born after all.

It's still technically summer for a few more days (and it feels like it here in SW Florida, with forecast highs in the low- to mid-90s all week). Don't put away your grocery store tracking charts just yet... :-)
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...

Thanks God that Igor is now 85MPH. This should be a breeze compared to what it could have been before.

Looks like Bermuda will dodge a bullet;
though it ain't over til it's over.
Taking an average of all those 7, you're left with 4-3-1. Now, that's on the low side, particularly taking into account the last 3 seasons.

Take the mean road of the last 3...

You're left with 5 or 6-4-1.

That leaves us with... 16 or 17-9-6.

Which is already very high, but that's roughly the numbers to expect for the rest of the season.

In one's own humble opinion, naturally...
there should be alittle graveyd for ex blog members a little spot in cyberland.
1747. LeMoyne
CIMSS 1km viz loop - can see an eye shape in 94L at 30.2W 15.3N for a couple frames before the towers bury it - also lots of lower level spiraling visible in detail view - one arm from 13n31W to 30W15N fires to cover the eyelet
Can see the whole system taking shape in 4km views
94L may not survive well as a storm - might even split where the center seems to be but I'm staying out on my limb - NE arm has bridged N of CVs over to the African moisture which is catching up (later today/tomorrow) so 94 L gets to be Lisa (by tomorrow) - definitely gonna rack up some more ADT today

94 L - Floater shows itty bitty eye at 30.8W 15.5 N moving W from 29.5 15.5 in first frames thru position of 1km views above - I think baby Lisa will roll WSW with the flow from the NE down the arm already setup to the west into higher SSTs and also intensify with the moisture coming off of Africa ... we will see

Frakin Igor spewed all over the front and Julia and most of the Atlantic got bigger (again) and managed a direct hit and 24 hr storm for Bermuda finally crossing 65W. At least Igor got weaker - I trust they were all ready in Bermuda.
1748. WxLogic
Quoting Chicklit:

Looks like Bermuda will dodge a bullet;
though it ain't over til it's over.


Definitely...
Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF FALL CAN NOT GET HERE QUICK ENOUGH...AS SUMMER
WANTS TO GIVE US ONE MORE HEAT WAVE. WE SAW A FEW 100S YESTERDAY
AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION.

HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
GENERALLY 96 TO 98 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON LOCAL
TERRAIN AND EFFECTS. THE "COOL" SPOT WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.
AS FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...ISOLATED CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN OVERALL DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BESIDES THE HEAT TWO OTHER BATTLES ARE IN PLACE TODAY. RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF THE SOIL AND THE
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DROP
OFF INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...MAYBE EVEN A FEW 40S. THIS
WAS THE CASE ON SATURDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. AS FOR RAIN
CHANCES...A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE US 80/INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND IS NOTICEABLE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
JUST WILL NOT DISSIPATE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LOCAL WRF AND NAM
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE NAM HAS HANDLED THE SCENARIO NICELY.
SO WILL TREND POPS CLOSER TO THE MODEL OUTPUT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN SO...ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND LOW CHANCES. WAS PLANNING TO
INTRODUCE THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTH WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE AREAS WITH 10 PERCENT CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND ADD IN WEATHER ALL DAY WITHIN THE 20 PERCENT ZONE.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE OVERALL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OPEN BACK UP AS FAR AS
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. WILL SEE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT ON A WHOLE THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...QUESTIONS ARISE AND SOME YELLOW
FLAGS ARE THROWN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON SPECIFICS. HOWEVER THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR. MODELS DEVELOP A POTENTIAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BUILD IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. QUESTIONS HERE WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING. WILL IT BE
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...OR EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK.
QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO TRY TO GET THIS PATTERN NAILED DOWN...BUT
STAY TUNED...BECAUSE IT COULD JUST CHANGE THE WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE.




looks like lisa going to be another fish
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS has a western Caribbean system crossing Cuba and heading NNE....



it may move nne but look at that big rige ahead of it it wont be going nne long
1751. WxLogic
Quoting weatherlover94:


looks like lisa going to be another fish


You can't say "Lisa" will be a fish IF it ever forms in the Carib or GOM.

It will be inevitable for a Tropical Disturbance to not affect land if it's being pulled by an approaching TROF or on the other end of the spectrum pulled away from a weakness by a building High.

I'll leave it like this as I'm pretty sure you get the point.
1752. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see that we're here again, a mere week after "peak" day, with two named systems still spinning, another to likely be classified today, another healthy candidate coming off the coast of Africa (lower than 94L), yet at least one very healthy wave in mid-Africa after that, still record or near-record high TCHP numbers in the Caribbean along with warm (and still warming) SSTs all across the MDR...and people are talking about season being over, talking about breaking out the skis and mittens, talking about things being on the downhill.

That's a little premature, I think. And that's not just my opinion. Some facts for the class:
  • Many of the more active seasons have seen more named storms in October than in September. 1995 and 2005 come immediately to mind.
  • Some of the worst, most powerful and/or destructive storms on record have been late-season surprises. Mitch, Wilma, Kate, Michelle, Opal, et al.
  • Even discounting October/November, there are still nearly two full weeks left in September.

Yes, CV season is winding down, finally, after giving us a number of storms including the very powerful quartet of Danielle, Earl, Julia, and--of course--Igor. But there is a lot of storm season left. And remember this: a model that was wrong yesterday in predicting where and when a storm would form may have been no less wrong than one that today says that storm won't be born after all.

It's still technically summer for a few more days (and it feels like it here in SW Florida, with forecast highs in the low- to mid-90s all week). Don't put away your grocery store tracking charts just yet... :-)
Good Morning Nea...It aint near over...Wait until this time next week, the U.S. will probably have a threatening system and there is even a slight chance of having three named storms again. The NCEP has two storms. One hits S.W. Florida, And another forms right on the heels of that one...Link
Quoting IKE:
240 hour ECMWF...



looks like thats lisa near the azores
Quoting WxLogic:


You can't say "Lisa" will be a fish IF it ever forms in the Carib or GOM.

It will be inevitable for a Tropical Disturbance to not affect land if it's being pulled by an approaching TROF or on the other end of the spectrum pulled away from a weakness by a building High.

I'll leave it like this as I'm pretty sure you get the point.


i see what your talking about we will just have to wait and see i guess
1755. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


Just a joke. Hope those are still allowed.

The Maybe Lisa out by the CV looks headed to the fishes...really.

Next threat will be closer to home, maybe from the Caribbean.

That's a clear violation of the standards... have you never watched Kitchen Nightmares?

Standards man STANDARDS!
WOW INVEST 94l 70%
1758. CalTex

1726. Cotillion 12:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Thanks for all the great historical information! It's really appreciated. Did you discover which hurricane has the record for the most EWRCs? Igor seemed to go through one about every other day.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ok finally catching up on the models. This was an eye catcher.



look at Florida big storm that will either be lisa,matthew or nicole
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
WOW INVEST 94l 70%


getting more and more interesting
1761. WxLogic
Quoting weatherlover94:


i see what your talking about we will just have to wait and see i guess


Now if 94L actually manages to develop and becomes "Lisa" then there's a good chance that "Lisa" could be a fish, but you're heading in the right thinking of "...we will just have to wait and see...".
1762. breald
Quoting Chicklit:

Looks like Bermuda will dodge a bullet;
though it ain't over til it's over.


I believe the storm is going to pass just west of Bermuda which is the bad side to be on. They will have strong winds and bad rain for many hours. I guess it could be worse but they are not going to get by unscathed.
1763. srada
Good Morning Everyone,

Can someone post the long range CMC link or tell me where I can get it..the FSU only has the short range link and Huffman's Im not seeing it?

I see the GFS has gone to the right with the potential storm missing FL and barely touching the outerbanks now..

TIA
Good Morning. I see Igor's ACE is approaching Wilma's; it's currently at 38.4(according to Wiki).
Quoting jason2010xxxx:

Jason, why do you post that video EVERY day?
wow...1765
Quoting CalTex:

1726. Cotillion 12:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Thanks for all the great historical information! It's really appreciated. Did you discover which hurricane has the record for the most EWRCs? Igor seemed to go through one about every other day.


I haven't really looked. Be difficult to determine, anyway. Our knowledge base for EWRCs is very limited and with a historical perspective, the examples are going to restrained between a 30 year period or so.

I'd hazard a guess that it would be a Cape-Verde hurricane. I can imagine that the 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane went through quite a few.
Quoting srada:
Good Morning Everyone,

Can someone post the long range CMC link or tell me where I can get it..the FSU only has the short range link and Huffman's Im not seeing it?

I see the GFS has gone to the right with the potential storm missing FL and barely touching the outerbanks now..

TIA


Under Huffman it is labled GGEM
1771. LeMoyne
94 L shows itty bitty (growing eye) at 30.8W 15.3N surronded by 3 degree diameter circulation on Floater



Baby Lisa
1772. srada
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Under Huffman it is labled GGEM


Thanks!!
Good Morning!  Glad to see that Igor has weakened, although the surge is still my concern.

Here is a link to the BDA SUN where a reporter is live blogging from home:

Hurricane Igor

Looks like some scattered power outages already

Had to laugh at this post last night:

10pm, Saturday: What's with all the Jim Cantore groupies? I get it, he's kind of famous - but come on people, it's just the weather channel....

Ya'll have a great Sunday! 
1775. BDADUDE
Eye visible now on Bermuda Radar
Link
1776. srada
Quoting DestinJeff:


Good morning, friend.

I saw you got the link. That is a great site.


Good Morning Jeff

It is a great site. Cool avatar..LOL!

Quoting BDADUDE:
Eye visible now on Bermuda Radar
Link

Hey BDADude - do you still have power?  how's the winds?  water?

Stay Safe today!
1779. CalTex

1768. Cotillion 12:52 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Thanks!
1780. FLdewey
I see Cantore is on Bermuda... only thing we can hope for now is equipment failure.
Quoting srada:


Good Morning Jeff

It is a great site. Cool avatar..LOL!

Wait til you see Dewey's.
Sometimes you gotta take one for the team.
Speaking of which, instead of looking at an overbearing CAT4, Bermuda will have much less destructive CAT1 when Igor arrives tonight.
Wow. What a godsend!
1782. TxLisa
Good Morning! I'm trying to find out what might be developing in the GOM. Can anyone recommend a good link. I try to keep up with tropical developments, my Dad got me hooked. He was a HAMM radio operator back in the 60's/70's and loved tracking storms. Unfortunatley, after the RITA evacuation and IKE damaging my home, I take things a lot more seriously. Ya'll have a wonderful day!
1783. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:

That's a clear violation of the standards... have you never watched Kitchen Nightmares?

Standards man STANDARDS!
This is the GFDL model. Check out the ridiculously low pressures that it predicts will move into the Caribbean....Link
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning. I see Igor's ACE is approaching Wilma's; it's currently at 38.4(according to Wiki).
Guess he must like it. Give it a rest. It's basically harmless. Haven't we seen what happens when we start ragging on each other. (you're not one of the usual offenders, just a heads up to everyone)
1785. IKE
Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 10 min 21 sec ago
Rain
79 °F
Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 39 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 58 mph
Pressure: 29.47 in (Falling)

Visibility: -
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
1786. hydrus
Quoting TxLisa:
Good Morning! I'm trying to find out what might be developing in the GOM. Can anyone recommend a good link. I try to keep up with tropical developments, my Dad got me hooked. He was a HAMM radio operator back in the 60's/70's and loved tracking storms. Unfortunatley, after the RITA evacuation and IKE damaging my home, I take things a lot more seriously. Ya'll have a wonderful day!
....Link
1787. CalTex
Flash flood watch for the Brownsville, TX area, still getting lots of rain from the spawn of Karl.

Edit: should be *warning* see posts below
1788. markot
why are some counting this season being over. this season is not like normal...record sea suface temps...havnt yoyu heard experts saying we;ll go in to nov. this year....a big ridge is building, m et here in tampa just talked bout it. he.s worried, nothing will be recuving now with that strong ridge there now.....
1789. TxLisa
Thank you hydrus for the link! Have a great day!
1790. hydrus
Quoting TxLisa:
Good Morning! I'm trying to find out what might be developing in the GOM. Can anyone recommend a good link. I try to keep up with tropical developments, my Dad got me hooked. He was a HAMM radio operator back in the 60's/70's and loved tracking storms. Unfortunatley, after the RITA evacuation and IKE damaging my home, I take things a lot more seriously. Ya'll have a wonderful day!
Sorry. Try the GEM model..It has the Gulf and Caribbean quite stormy...Link
Quoting CalTex:
Flash flood watch for the Brownsville, TX area, still getting lost of rain from the spawn of Karl.

u mean warning just got word lots of flooding around here and nws said its a life threating flood
Flash Flood Warning
Statement as of 8:03 AM CDT on September 19, 2010
The National Weather Service in Brownsville has extended a * Flash Flood Warning for... central Cameron County in deep south Texas.

Locations affected include...
Olmito. Brownsville. Port of Brownsville. Los Fresnos. Harlingen east side. Rio Hondo.

* Until 1000 am CDT

* at 6 am CDT through 7 am CDT... law enforcement and an off duty NWS employee
reported the following locations had flooded in greater brownsville:
Boca Chica and McDavitt. International and 14th. It is likely that Boca Chica between McDavitt and international is also flooded. Ruben Torres... right Lane westbound filling with water between Oscar Dancy and Old Port Isabel. Paredes line Road just north of paseo Plaza shopping center to the T Mobile offices.

* The thunderstorm with torrential rain will be near... Brownsville Airport... Highway 4 and Boca Chica. Rancho Viejo... Los Fresnos.

The heaviest rains will continue from near Brownsville international Airport along FM 511 including the port of Brownsville and Los Fresnos. Life threatening flooding is possible in poor drainage areas in these locations.
Elsewhere... moderate to heavy rains will keep flooding ongoing through 10 am.
This includes greater Brownsville especially along and east of Highway 77.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Widespread flooding is occurring... or will occur... in the warned area. Numerous roads will be closed... and homes... especially in low lying areas... will become inundated. Move to higher ground immediately!

This is a life threatening flood! Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Do not cross flooded roadways or streams. If nearing a flood area... turn around and drive to higher terrain.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the Road. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely.
Move to higher ground.

Don't become a statistic. Turn around... don't drown!

Lat... Lon 2588 9747 2589 9753 2592 9755 2632 9767
2630 9755 2633 9754 2634 9750 2633 9746
2607 9729 2596 9725 2595 9730 2594 9730
2592 9735 2592 9737 2587 9737 2584 9739
2585 9742 2584 9743


52



1793. TxLisa
Thanks again! I will definitely stay glued to this site.
Quoting WxLogic:


Now if 94L actually manages to develop and becomes "Lisa" then there's a good chance that "Lisa" could be a fish, but you're heading in the right thinking of "...we will just have to wait and see...".


Do we HAVE to wait and see? Can we guess?
1796. markot
got fishcasters again, lisa not a fish......
1797. hydrus
Quoting TxLisa:
Thanks again! I will definitely stay glued to this site.
This is very interesting. The NAM shows a large and powerful storm brewing in the S.W.Caribbean Sea...Link
Link

Up close of 94L at 70%
1799. hydrus
Quoting markot:
got fishcasters again, lisa not a fish......
Lol...Lisa not even Lisa...
Quoting DestinJeff:


Good morning, fiend.

I saw you got the ink. That is a great tattoo.


Thanks, nice of you to notice.
1801. hydrus
Quoting blsealevel:
That mess over Texas would have been Lisa if it had stayed over water...
1802. bjdsrq
Quoting TxLisa:
Good Morning! I'm trying to find out what might be developing in the GOM. Can anyone recommend a good link. I try to keep up with tropical developments, my Dad got me hooked. He was a HAMM radio operator back in the 60's/70's and loved tracking storms. Unfortunatley, after the RITA evacuation and IKE damaging my home, I take things a lot more seriously. Ya'll have a wonderful day!


I've been watching the GFS for 3 days now show a storm path for the week of sept 27 oscillating back between NOLA and Miami. The latest has it going up off the east coast of the US. My advice is live life as usual and check back in 6 days.
Anyone know if we will see a track like this one anytime soon?
the pouch moving west towards the windwards seems interesting. if igor and his small sister get out of the way the pouch might develop. if it develops before the windwards then we got problems
1805. sarepa
.
1806. hydrus
It is rather busy out there..
1807. hydrus
This wave in the Eastern Caribbean is rather vigorous and could merge with the system forecast to be in the S.W.Caribbean during the middle of next week.
Quoting hydrus:
It is rather busy out there..


A formatting note: please leave a space or return after your text and before the image; when you don't, the blog page gets wide for everyone... (such as it did with your post # 1806 and 1801) ;-)
Quoting hydrus:
That mess over Texas would have been Lisa if it had stayed over water...


Ya know it.
1810. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:


A formatting note: please leave a space or return after your text and before the image; whenr you don't, the blog page gets wide for everyone... ;-)
Do you mean just hit the space bar? I am new at this...
1811. Mikla
Unless something spins up around 15,-50, this looks like the next AOI in a day or so...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


October is the most active month in my area.

Excerpt:

In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season. A total of 19 hurricanes have impacted the south Florida mainland in October, compared to 15 in September. A total of 30 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have affected mainland south Florida, also the most of any month.


The numbers on the upper TX/ Western LA coast are heavily weighted toward September as compared to October. But it's not breathe easy time even over here in this corner of the world. Link

September


October
1813. bassis
Any one notice the blob of convection at 69W, 12N

Seems to be getting better organized with each passing loop
Quoting bassis:
Any one notice the blob of convection at 69W, 12N

Seems to be getting better organized with each passing loop


Yup, I've been watching it. What do you have for steering on it the next couple of days?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The numbers on the upper TX/ Western LA coast are heavily weighted toward September as compared to October. But it's not breathe easy time even over here in this corner of the world. Link

September


October


Intresting to see where the Oct. storms paths are too.
94L is looking very healthy. 850mb vorticity, while still a bit elongated SW/NE, continues to consolidate. RGB satellites hints at a nearly-closed surface circulation, and there's even some good outflow going on both north and south, so ventilation is solid. I'll be very surprised if this isn't TD14--or even TS Lisa--by this afternoon/evening.
1817. Mikla
Quoting hydrus:
Do you mean just hit the space bar? I am new at this...

Just hit "Enter" after the text, before the image
Look at Bermuda Getting Pounded...

Quoting hydrus:
Do you mean just hit the space bar? I am new at this...


New, huh? Funny guy. Yes, the space bar, though the return (enter) key to start a new line works even better...
1821. bassis
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yup, I've been watching it. What do you have for steering on it the next couple of days?


Thats beyond my expertise


Ouch....... Bermuda is that Little Dot.
Quoting bassis:


Thats beyond my expertise


That's ok, it's in the post above yours. Looks like the typical westward steering, right up the slot.
1824. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:


New, huh? Funny guy. Yes, the space bar, though the return (enter) key to start a new line works even better...


He's not kidding!
94L has good 850mb vorticity

94L:

1827. hydrus
Quoting bassis:
Any one notice the blob of convection at 69W, 12N

Seems to be getting better organized with each passing loop
I would say there is something going on there.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Ouch....... Bermuda is that Little Dot.


Looks like it is going to be hit with the eastern eyewall.
1829. FLdewey
Agua!

Quoting blsealevel:


Intresting to see where the Oct. storms paths are too.


Yep. And two were EPAC systems that crossed over. A couple of Caribbean. Some GOM. Focus closer to home. Wish I could find out more about the lower Texas coast. Haven't dug that deep yet. :)
94L Close to TD Strength



1832. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:


New, huh? Funny guy. Yes, the space bar, though the return (enter) key to start a new line works even better...
lol..I am not kidding..This computer stuff is new to me...These things have come a long way since the 70,s and 80,s..:)
Quoting hydrus:
I would say there is something going on there.


Any models picking it up?
(69w 12n)
1834. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
I would say there is something going on there.


Can't post those animated ones from NOAA unless to upload and download.

1835. Melagoo
I wonder how well these boats will do when Igor arrives ... I would have moved that big yacht by now ... :c/

Good morning, everyone.
1837. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
lol..I am not kidding..This computer stuff is new to me...These things have come a long way since the 70,s and 80,s..:)


Just think from the 40's and 50's and you will know how I feel. How you doing hydrus???
just went out to get breakfast tacos it was kinda to get though lots of flooding aleast a foot deep
1839. Grothar
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone.


Morning, dream of dog's names all night?
1840. Grothar
Somebody stretched 94L.

Quoting Melagoo:
I wonder how well these boats will do when Igor arrives ... I would have moved that big yacht by now ... :c/



Those all look dry docked to me. Take a closer look.
Is CycloneOz in Bermuda? LOL..

Anyway All Waves that Come of Africa Now Pose more of a threat to the Carribean and US.
Quoting Grothar:


Morning, dream of dog's names all night?


LOL!! First thing I did this morning was to look if I had any mail. I guess round two begins tonight. How are ya?
there were models supporting a system developing in the carribean of the coast of nicaragua and moving it northward across cuba and southern florida sometime towards the end of the month, have the models backed out ?????
Well i think i'm watching the cloud mess coming up from South in the Carib.

1846. Grothar
Quoting aislinnpaps:


LOL!! First thing I did this morning was to look if I had any mail. I guess round two begins tonight. How are ya?


Good, little Grothar found 3 of his chocolate doughnuts gone this morning. Wait until we get a hold of Cosmic. (By the way, bloggers, CosmicEvents is holding us hostage trying to guess his dog's name which has something to do with tropical storms.)
1847. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Just think from the 40's and 50's and you will know how I feel. How you doing hydrus???
Busy but good....It is important that I clarify computers in the 1940,s era were not "actually" computers. The were nothing more than a wad of vacuum tubes....computer,...HHHAAAAA!..Hope you are doing well Gro....How is the Geritol I.V. thing Goin? hehe.
1848. hydrus
Quoting Seflhurricane:
there were models supporting a system developing in the carribean of the coast of nicaragua and moving it northward across cuba and southern florida sometime towards the end of the month, have the models backed out ?????
No.
Quoting Grothar:


Good, little Grothar found 3 of his chocolate doughnuts gone this morning. Wait until we get a hold of Cosmic. (By the way, bloggers, CosmicEvents is holding us hostage trying to guess his dog's name which has something to do with tropical storms.)


He gave the name last night, it was Cosmic.
1850. WXTXN
Quoting Grothar:


Good, little Grothar found 3 of his chocolate doughnuts gone this morning. Wait until we get a hold of Cosmic. (By the way, bloggers, CosmicEvents is holding us hostage trying to guess his dog's name which has something to do with tropical storms.)
No Round two. Her name is COSMIC!
Why in the world 94L would eject to the N while everything east of 60W is going West. It's not even a strong system yet.
1852. RENONV
1
Quoting WXTXN:
No Round two. Her name is COSMIC!


Heh! That was what I thought of too late last night, but since I'd been DQ'd, I didn't say anything.
Quoting Grothar:


Good, little Grothar found 3 of his chocolate doughnuts gone this morning. Wait until we get a hold of Cosmic. (By the way, bloggers, CosmicEvents is holding us hostage trying to guess his dog's name which has something to do with tropical storms.)


Poor little Grother. Tell him he needs to do the buying next time and to include extras! *G*
Quoting hydrus:
Busy but good....It is important that I clarify computers in the 1940,s era were not "actually" computers. The were nothing more than a wad of vacuum tubes....computer,...HHHAAAAA!..Hope you are doing well Gro....How is the Geritol I.V. thing Goin? hehe.
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)
Quoting Grothar:


He's not kidding!
oh, you mean the "return carriage" key? All these new fangled gadgets :P
Does anyone have any idea how much longer the ridge will hold that has been protecting the upper Gulf Coast, the TX/LA area?
Igor's COC just showing up in radar:
Gonna be a very long day for Bermuda. Glad this thing's down to a category 1 though. TS storm force winds extend out 345 miles from center:

Aerial view of battlefield:

Quoting atmoaggie:
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)


I remember the bru-haha from a number of people that computers would be horrible because they would take jobs away from people. Where would the world and forecasting be without them today?
Quoting WeatherMum:
oh, you mean the "return carriage" key? All these new fangled gadgets :P


Ah, laugh if you will, but in computer programming, there are heavily-used "carriage return" and "line feed" characters to this day. I often wonder how many of the young'uns have even the slightest idea how those words came into being...
1863. Mikla
OK... dumb question... I hit that PITA Rich Text button by accident and forget where I go to reset defaults... anyone?
Thanks.
1864. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)


No, but you look good in that picture. I am talking about this eniac, and by the way that is not a picture of my daughter. LOL This is one of the earlier weather computers.

Bermuda beginning to get windy.

Iggy is a Cat-1, but he's still pushing a lot of water. I pray the storm surge is manageable for the island. It looks like the wind won't be much of a problem thanks to strict building codes and such. Good Luck and
God Bless Bermuda! I, too have been watching that ball of convection in the carribean..interesting..
Upper Divergence



Lower Convergence

1869. hydrus
Quoting atmoaggie:
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)
Oh yeah..All that magnetic tape..I wonder how much of that stuff the government has laying around waiting to be micro-chipped. We definitely are in an active and interesting period tropically..I am wondering how much longer we will avoid a strike from a full blown hurricane on the U.S. It is my estimation that there will be two landfalls on U.S. soil.
Starting to like what I see with 94L:

Quoting Neapolitan:


Ah, laugh if you will, but in computer programming, there are heavily-used "carriage return" and "line feed" characters to this day. I often wonder how many of the young'uns have even the slightest idea how those words came into being...
lol.

And, I write scripts that include those, on purpose, all of the time.
1872. Grothar
I actually used to know how to wire these, although this was actually a little before my time. Anyone remember the 80 - 80 board?

NEW BLOG
FINAL REPEAT: NEW BLOG
Wow, the winds have really picked up since yesterday. (Of course - since he's closer)
1876. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Starting to like what I see with 94L:



NATL graveyard with 94L.

..........................................


Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 14 sec ago
Heavy Rain
77 °F
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 46 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 71 mph
Pressure: 29.39 in (Falling)

Visibility: 0.5 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
1877. hydrus
Quoting Mikla:
OK... dumb question... I hit that PITA Rich Text button by accident and forget where I go to reset defaults... anyone?
Thanks.
Go to (view) then (toolbar) then (navigation bar)...that should help some...
Quoting atmoaggie:
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)


Good morning all.

atmo, I believe it was the FSU Experimental page that use to have a link to all of the computers that process their data. It showed processor stats, how much memory was being used, etc. The last computer on that list was a Commodore 64. It was always overclocked, and out of memory and it was processing something like .00001% of the data. Was neat to see it there, but I can't seem to find that link anymore. Granted the 64 was a long site from 1940-1960's computing...
Quoting Mikla:
OK... dumb question... I hit that PITA Rich Text button by accident and forget where I go to reset defaults... anyone?
Thanks.
I haven't stepped in that myself, and I know I saw a more elegant way, but if you delete your cookies and log back in to WU, default settings will apply (bringing you back into the fold of normalcy).

(Note: You WILL have to log in after you delete cookies. Know your sign in email and password?)


Igor rapid scan infrared loop below - Igor's looking like he just finished a marathon & needs a breath or two:

Link

1881. hydrus
71 mph...They are starting to get the bad stuff now.
Quoting IKE:


NATL graveyard with 94L.

..........................................


Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 14 sec ago
Heavy Rain
77 °F
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 46 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 71 mph
Pressure: 29.39 in (Falling)

Visibility: 0.5 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Yep! lol
(Moved to new post.)
1884. hydrus
Quoting StormJunkie:


Good morning all.

atmo, I believe it was the FSU Experimental page that use to have a link to all of the computers that process their data. It showed processor stats, how much memory was being used, etc. The last computer on that list was a Commodore 64. It was always overclocked, and out of memory and it was processing something like .00001% of the data. Was neat to see it there, but I can't seem to find that link anymore. Granted the 64 was a long site from 1940-1960's computing...
We had a Tandy(Radio Shack) 64K..It was alright I guess..I sorta liked all the green print..:)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Live streaming video from Bermuda


Thats a cool link Aussie! You could see the boat in the bay one second and then you can't. Thats alot of rain!
Quoting hydrus:
We had a Tandy(Radio Shack) 64K..It was alright I guess..I sorta liked all the green print..:)


Had a Tandy myself...until we upgraded to the TRS-80 Coco.

1887. Grothar
Quoting StormJunkie:


Good morning all.

atmo, I believe it was the FSU Experimental page that use to have a link to all of the computers that process their data. It showed processor stats, how much memory was being used, etc. The last computer on that list was a Commodore 64. It was always overclocked, and out of memory and it was processing something like .00001% of the data. Was neat to see it there, but I can't seem to find that link anymore. Granted the 64 was a long site from 1940-1960's computing...


Commodore 64
Type Home computer
Release date August 1982
Discontinued April 1994
Operating system Commodore KERNAL/
Commodore BASIC 2.0
CPU MOS Technology 6510
@ 1.023 MHz (NTSC version)
@ 0.985 MHz (PAL version)
Memory 64 kB RAM + 20 kB ROM
Graphics VIC-II (320 × 200, 16 colors, sprites, raster interrupt)
Sound SID 6581 (3× Osc, 4× Wave, Filter, ADSR, Ring)
Connectivity 2× CIA 6526 Joystick, Power, Cartridge, RF, A/V, IEEE-488 Floppy/Printer, Digital tape, GPIO/RS-232
Predecessor Commodore VIC-20
Successor Commodore 128
Quoting muddertracker:
Iggy is a Cat-1, but he's still pushing a lot of water. I pray the storm surge is manageable for the island. It looks like the wind won't be much of a problem thanks to strict building codes and such. Good Luck and
God Bless Bermuda! I, too have been watching that ball of convection in the carribean..interesting..


Storm surge won't be nearly as bad as a hit on CONUS because there is no continental shelf. Probably only about two feet.
Dr M has a new blog up
Quoting pilotguy1:


Storm surge won't be nearly as bad as a hit on CONUS because there is no continental shelf. Probably only about two feet.

Good news!
Bermudas going to receive a long duration event resulting in potentially historic beach erosion and/or surge flooding imo
*Tweet from CycloneOz*

Live video from Bermuda (courtesy HurricaneCities.com) with our FREE CHAT ROOM is located at http://www.7674u.com!
Bermuda Sun has some great images. I particularly like the one it's on now/.
Link