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Karl and Lisa Spinning Across Atlantic; Malakas Leaves Trail of Damage in Japan

By: Bob Henson 4:42 PM GMT on September 20, 2016

Tropical activity was ramping down in one ocean basin and ramping up in another on Tuesday morning. There were two decaying tropical storms in the Pacific--one soon to leave Japan, the other heading for Mexico’s Baja California coast--while in the Atlantic, we have two tropical storms expected to gather steam, including one just christened. The National Hurricane Center upgraded a depression in the eastern Atlantic to Tropical Storm Lisa in its 11 am EDT Tuesday advisory. Lisa is the Atlantic’s 12th tropical storm of the year, which puts us ahead of the typical number of named storms recorded in an entire Atlantic season (11.3 per year for the period 1966-2009). Though they’ve been numerous, this year’s Atlantic storms haven’t been especially strong--the seasonal accumulated cyclone energy is only about 70-75% of average for the date--or particularly long-lived. The average duration of a named storm in the Atlantic is 5 days, according to Phil Klotzbach (CSU), and Karl is only the second of this year’s 11 named storms to last even that long.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Lisa as of 1445Z (10:45 am EDT) Tuesday, September 20, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Outlook for Lisa
Located about 430 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, Lisa should be a large but fairly innocuous storm. On its northwestward path, Lisa will be rolling over modestly warm waters for development (sea surface temperatures of 27-28°C, or 81-82°F). Light wind shear today and Wednesday should allow Lisa to gather some strength. However, wind shear will be increasing sharply from Thursday onward, as shown in 12Z Tuesday output from the SHIPS statistical model. It appears unlikely Lisa will make it to hurricane strength before its surroundings turn hostile. In any event, it should continue on a northwest bearing that will allow it to recurve long before it approaches North America.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Karl.

Karl still expected to gain strength, could threaten Bermuda
Tropical Storm Karl continues to struggle in the central Atlantic, with top sustained winds remaining a minimal 40 mph as of the 11 am EDT Tuesday advisory from NHC. Wind shear associated with a weak upper low west of Karl has been relentless in pushing shower and thunderstorm activity to the northeast, leaving Karl’s low-level center largely exposed for most of the last couple of days. Such pockets of wind shear--which can be hard to fully detect across the open Atlantic, and tough for models to portray accurately—have been quite prevalent across the Atlantic this season. It’s been one factor helping to keep storms such as eventual Hurricane Hermine from developing as rapidly as expected.

Models agree there will be enough of a weakness in the subtropical ridge so that Karl’s current westward motion will angle toward the northwest on a gradually recurving track that stays well north of the Caribbean. On this course, Karl should encounter somewhat lighter wind shear (around 10 knots), a gradually moister atmosphere (relative humidity at middle levels of the atmosphere rising from 50-55% to around 60% by late Wednesday), and progressively warmer sea surface temperatures climbing to 29-30°C (84-86°F). These ingredients will give Karl a fighting chance at gaining hurricane strength by week’s end, as predicted by NHC. Computer models are converging on a sharp turn to the northeast that would occur just in time to keep Karl from Bermuda, but it’s too soon to rule out possible impacts there. If this year’s tendency holds, Karl could achieve its maximum strength at a fairly high latitude around 30-35°N--another reason for Bermuda to pay close attention to Karl.


Figure 3. WU depiction of official NHC forecast track for Tropical Storm Karl as of 1500Z (11:00 am EDT) Tuesday, September 20, 2016.The official track takes Karl just southeast of Bermuda, but the island remains within the “cone of uncertainty.”


Figure 4. Vehicles drive through a flooded street as Typhoon Malakas moves across the city of Tokushima, located on the east end of Japan’s Shikoku Island, on Tuesday, September 20, 2016. Image credit: Jiji Press/AFP/Getty Images.

Malakas sweeps across Japan’s south coast
At least two people are missing and more than 30 were injured by the arrival of Typhoon Malakas in Japan. Malakas slammed ashore in Kyushu, the westernmost of Japan’s main islands, before churning northeast along the south coast of Shikoku and Honshu islands. Widespread torrential rain across southern Japan triggered landslides, with some wind damage reported as well. Winds gusted to 90-105 mph across much of Kyushu: Tosu City reported a gust to 43 meters per second (96 mph) just before midnight Monday night. On the east side of Kyushu, Nobeoka reported 446 mm (17.56”) of rain in 24 hours, including 407 mm (16.02”) in just 12 hours.

As of 1500Z Tuesday (midnight Tuesday night local time, or 11:00 am EDT), Malakas was located about 70 miles west of Tokyo. Now a tropical storm, Malakas is east-northeast at about 28 mph with top sustained winds down to 45 mph. It should be out to sea as a tropical depression by midday Wednesday local time. Malakas is the sixth typhoon to make landfall in Japan this year, according to JMA. That puts 2016 in a tie with 1990 and 1993 for the second-highest number of landfalling typhoons in Japan in records going back to 1951. All three years are well behind the record of 10 landfalls set in 2004.


Figure 5. Tropical Storm Paine as of 1545Z (9:45 am EDT) Tuesday, September 20, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Paine relief: Tropical storm is decaying fast
Before long, we’ll have no more Paine to deal with (and hopefully no more Paine-ful puns). Tropical Storm Paine is weakening quickly as it moves over progressively cooler waters amid high wind shear. Paine’s top sustained winds were down to 45 mph as of the 11 am EDT Tuesday advisory, and the storm was rapidly becoming disorganized. Paine is now expected to make landfall along the northern coast of Mexico’s Baja California on Wednesday afternoon as a tropical depression. The rich moisture associated with Paine could drop several inches of rain on northern Baja California. Some of this moisture is already being entrained into a large-scale storm system moving into the western U.S., which may enhance showers and thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest on Wednesday into the central Rockies on Thursday. The first accumulating snows of the season could fall above 8000 feet across northwest Colorado and northeast Utah.

Jeff Masters and I will be back later this afternoon with a summary of global climate for August and for meteorological summer.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update.


................
12z GFS will hopefully change. It can't materialize anyways.
CMC dropped development.


Cat 1 moving north
GFS is back to sending a cyclone into Florida .3.
From previous blog

To say it was a bust season to a lot of folks, we dont have that many names to go until we see the Greek alphabet.


HURRICANE NAMES
ATLANTIC TROPICAL (AND SUBTROPICAL) STORM NAMES FOR 2016
Alex Hermine Otto
Bonnie Ian Paula
Colin Julia Richard
Danielle Karl Shary
Earl Lisa Tobias
Fiona Matthew Virginie
Gaston Nicole Walter
Thanks Mr. Henson; that inverse storm relationship between the Pacific and the Atlantic Basin seems to be holding true even in the case of West-Pac storms when we are normally only looking at the E-Pac-Atlantic correlation when those two seasons overlap. Amazing to me how things can ramp up or down in either basin even if a MJO pulse is not at play traversing from West to East across the basins at any given time:



Potential typos:
"Through they’ve been numerous," should that be "Though?" Also, "Malays is the sixth..." Should that be "Malakas?"
Karl's center starting to become covered once again:





It appears shear is starting to lower. Perhaps Karl will finally start steady strengthening tonight? That upper low that's been hampering him is degrading quickly.
GFS 384 hrs out, landfall SW Florida Coast.
This is 384 hours out. I do not trust models more than 380 hours.

Quoting 5. CaribBoy:

CMC dropped development.


Well, if the CMC drops development... It tends to develop everything.
The future storm thats being forecasted by the GFS is unusually low will be interesting to see it pan out..Not getting excited until i actually see the potential system form
Quoting 12. hurricanewatcher61:

GFS 384 hrs out, landfall SW Florida Coast.

lol
Thanks for the update
Quoting 15. rockcity340:

The future storm thats being forecasted by the GFS is unusually low will be interesting to see it pan out..Not getting excited until i actually see the potential system. The windwards maybe under the gun next week ..
Thanks for the update!

96W: Very bad prospects one week out for southern Taiwan and the islands south of it which just got devastated by Meranti, if the 12z run of GFS pans out showing a strong typhoon in that region (making landfall full force in China later). 00z ECMWF was similar.


Source.


96W right now.


Click to enlarge.
Our attention will be turning to the Western Caribbean, Gulf, and off the Eastern Seaboard starting in a few days in accordance with typical October climatology. Whether from the result of convective complexes near Central America on the Atlantic side of things that might develop, or left-over frontal remnants in the Gulf or off the Eastern Seaboard, these later season storms are a bit harder to forecast waaaay out in advance as opposed to favorable waves coming off of Africa during the peak periods IMHO. Have to see how the pattern unfolds in the Western Caribbean and Central America in the coming days but I don't see tropical development in the Western Caribbean coming from a long track wave at this point (there ain't none coming down the pike)............................

October Hurricane Climatology




low west of karl will develop not weaken.
Quoting 12. hurricanewatcher61:

GFS 384 hrs out, landfall SW Florida Coast.

What's to hit Florida? Karl?
These low latitude storms could be quite dangerous. i always remember FLORA.
All these fish storms,...
Is Karl haveing a twin I wounder if that the low that the NHC is forecasting too be. A sub tropical or tropical storm this weekend
Really? Not quite. What the GFS is showing is possible Matthew. It's a long ways out and you can't trust model runs that far out. It could run several times and then drop it.
Quoting 22. nolawombat:


What's to hit Florida? Karl?
My forecast : an invest will cross the SE Caribbean then will develop in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting 24. ibhybhhb:

All these fish storms,...


Next one will be a boring weak low rider... until maybe the NW Caribbean.

Paine evaporating.


Even its remnant outflow is waning. Too dry, source SSTs too frigid.
Good to see Gonzo is back






This afternoons proposed flight track


Here are some of the October stats for Hurricanes from TWC; last major to impact Florida in October was Wilma 11 years ago: point being we are not out of the woods yet:

The threat of Atlantic hurricanes still looms in October. 

Florida is the state most likely to see a hurricane make landfall in the month of October, with the southern part of Florida most at risk. In fact, the last hurricane to make landfall in Florida was Hurricane Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005.

(MORE: Florida Hurricane-free Streak)

From 1851-2014, 32 hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in October, dwarfing the state with the next highest number of October landfalls -- Louisiana with nine.

There have been 17 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that have made direct hits on the U.S. mainland in the month of October since 1851. Ten of those occurred in Florida.

It also becomes more difficult for hurricanes to make landfall farther north as the upper-level wind pattern changes and the jet stream slides farther south. That said, Superstorm Sandy in 2012 broke many meteorological rules of thumb.

low latituder could cause problems for the people of caracas venezuela
Quoting 8. bigwes6844:

From previous blog

To say it was a bust season to a lot of folks, we dont have that many names to go until we see the Greek alphabet.


HURRICANE NAMES
ATLANTIC TROPICAL (AND SUBTROPICAL) STORM NAMES FOR 2016
Alex Hermine Otto
Bonnie Ian Paula
Colin Julia Richard
Danielle Karl Shary
Earl Lisa Tobias
Fiona Matthew Virginie
Gaston Nicole Walter

But most were rather ailing systems, only one weak hurricane. Well, season is just over half way.
34. vis0
inside wxu joke #43`233`112 , #43`233`113 & #43`233`114. (link to aniGIF)

not posting GIF as to maintain focus on the damage caused by Malakas and upcoming weather activities
The TWC blog below needs to be updated to reflect Hurricane Hermine (a minor cat 1) a few weeks ago as the last hurricane to make landfall in Florida.
Quoting 28. CaribBoy:



Next one will be a boring weak low rider... until maybe the NW Caribbean.


shake my head with these hungry type systems..they can't even make it strait over de atlantic
must have your fingers cross bitting finger nails pressure going up heart pumping fast
hoping for a tropical system to make across de atlantic SMH

*we're not in the hurricane season we're in the invest season*
Quoting 12. hurricanewatcher61:

GFS 384 hrs out, landfall SW Florida Coast.
just, why? seriously?
38. vis0
inside wxu joke #43`233`112 , #43`233`113 & #43`233`114. (link to aniGIF)

not posting GIF as to maintain focus on the damage caused by Malakas and upcoming weather activities
Quoting 33. cRRKampen:


But most were rather ailing systems, only one weak hurricane. Well, season is just over half way.


Nobody is forgotten like Gaston. :(
If the GFS track pans out for the future system low riding storm going though the carrbbean then North west carrbbean could be something serious but the GFS is famous on developing phantom storm I think this weekend may provide a clue on this system
what are these fish people gonna say when matthew and Nicole develop. you don't know anything about tropical development. all you say is fish.
Quoting 23. stoormfury:

These low latitude storms could be quite dangerous. i always remember FLORA.
Hurricane Flora was an absolute nightmare..I believe Flora was a cat-5 when it hit Haiti, even though they have it listed as a cat-4....At 145 mph sustained, it was close anyway..It was said that if Flora hit today, the death toll would be even higher..Flora remained a hurricane the entire time over Cuba, and spent four days making a counter-clockwise loop over Oriente Province........ Santiago de Cuba recorded over 100 inches of rain...I should mention that Flora killed well over 7000 people...5000 in Haiti alone...



Quoting 43. Patrap:




Nice catch; a little spinner out there with some broad vort at the surface:




Quoting 32. islander101010:

low latituder could cause problems for the people of caracas venezuela

And boy they sure don't need any more problems there ;)
San Diego County getting good rains from a ULL and Paines moisture

Quoting 39. CybrTeddy:



Nobody is forgotten like Gaston. :(
Gaston was gorgeous.



Quoting 39. CybrTeddy:



Nobody is forgotten like Gaston. :(


Ahem,




Ahem,




LED estimate's August flooding caused $8.7 billion in damages to Louisiana




The following is a news release from Louisiana Economic Development:

BATON ROUGE, La. — Louisiana Economic Development estimates the August 2016 Louisiana Flood caused $8.7 billion in damage to Louisiana residential and commercial properties, with damage to businesses in the state exceeding $2 billion. Those figures do not include damage to the state’s public infrastructure.

LED commissioned economist Dek Terrell of Lewis Terrell and Associates LLC to conduct the damage assessment in support of efforts by Gov. John Bel Edwards to gain federal appropriations from Congress. Those appropriations would be in addition to Louisiana recovery efforts being led by FEMA, the U.S. Small Business Administration and other federal, state and local agencies. Gov. Edwards is seeking $2 billion that would be delivered as disaster assistance through Community Development Block Grants managed by the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development.

In addition to an estimated 109,000 housing units damaged, nearly 20,000 Louisiana businesses were interrupted by the flooding that began Aug. 11 and continued for days, leading to the flooding of more than 6,000 businesses in 22 affected parishes. LED also surveyed 455 economic driver firms in flood-impacted regions – those employers that contribute the most output to the state’s economy – and found that 6 percent suffered significant damage while 9 percent sustained minor damage.

“The good news we want to project is that most of our major industries in Louisiana remained open and today are continuing their operations successfully,” LED Secretary Don Pierson said. “During the three-week period after the flooding event began, Louisiana shouldered labor and value-added production losses that affected 6 percent of our economic activity statewide. As a state economy we are doing better every day, and we remain strong and open for business.”

Nevertheless, the flooding of housing inventory – affecting three of every four homes in Livingston Parish, for example – combined with damage to schools, businesses, churches and public infrastructure to disrupt daily life for hundreds of thousands of people. At peak, LED estimates that 278,500 Louisiana residents were unable to work due to temporary closures, suspension of operations, transportation impasses and residential flooding. Many of those residents continue to seek assistance through FEMA, SBA and contractors as they rebuild their lives.

“While our economy as a whole is healthy, many of our residents have not been made whole in their home or work life yet,” Secretary Pierson said. “Our friends, families and colleagues, including many in our own department, are doing the difficult work of rebuilding their lives and we are doing everything we can to support them. That support extends to our vital small business community. We are delivering more resources and assistance to them daily and will stand by them as they reopen their firms and restore the critically important framework of our small business economy. Small businesses are big business in our state, representing more than 97 percent of all Louisiana business establishments and more than half of our private-sector workforce.”

LED is providing a complete resource guide for flood assistance at OpportunityLouisiana.com.

Included in that effort are seven Business Recovery Centers opened in flood-impacted regions in conjunction with SBA and the Louisiana Small Business Development Center Network.

SBA is leading efforts to provide disaster loan assistance to homeowners, businesses of all sizes and many nonprofit organizations. The LSBDC Network is providing guidance to help small business owners plan and implement their recovery. Together, they’ve visited more than 2,200 individuals through Business Recovery Center outreach in Louisiana, with nearly 50,000 calls fielded by SBA customer service representatives and SBA loan approvals to date reaching more than $236 million. FEMA has disbursed more than $505 million in individual assistance to help residents who were uninsured or underinsured for flood losses. The National Flood Insurance Program, managed by FEMA, has authorized more than $274 million in flood insurance claims to date in the state.

On Friday, FEMA surpassed $1 billion in total federal assistance to Louisiana disaster survivors and communities, less than 30 days after the flooding event began. More than 63,000 Louisiana families are receiving housing-related assistance through federal programs.

Secretary Pierson said federal, state and local partners have risen to the occasion to provide a concerted, strong response, but Louisiana’s recovery needs remain great. As part of a comprehensive request for $2 billion in additional flood disaster assistance from Congress, LED hopes to secure more resources to provide bridge funding and infrastructure resources that will restore Louisiana businesses.

“Our view is fixed on long-term solutions that will sustain Louisiana’s impacted businesses,” Pierson said, “not only to help them renovate their damaged structures, not only to help them reopen their doors, but to regenerate the working capital and revenue they need to survive this disaster and to become healthy contributors to Louisiana’s economic success far into the future.”
Just my opinion, that with global warming we will possibly see more landfalling Hurricanes like Sandy further North later into the season, much warmer water and a somewhat more Northerly track of the jet stream as with Sandy. Plus bottom core samples from the coastal ponds taken on Cape Cod show the last time we had warmer Oceans there were many more extreme Hurricanes hitting the South Coast of New England, not something I want to see, since cleaning up roads on Martha's Vineyard of blown down trees after Hurricane Bob in 1991. Chas.




🌎🌊🌞
The first rain this summer here at mi casa in Soo Cal

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Subtropical moisture advection into SoCal last night raised the
precipitable water on the 12Z NKX sounding to an impressive 1.90",
which is 210% of normal. Light to occasionally moderate rain
will fall across San Diego and Riverside Counties today, with
little if any rain over Orange and San Bernardino County where the
airmass is much drier. Highest rain totals through 9 am ranged
from 0.20"-0.40" in the San Diego County Mountains and foothills
including Alpine, Descanso and Pine Valley. No rain has been
reported so far today in Orange County or San Bernardino County.

This precipiation shield will remain nearly stationary throughout the
day. It extends 100-200 miles south and west of the Mexican border
and is moving northeast with only a very slight shift to the north.
This will be primarily a stratiform rain event with embedded heavier
showers at times over the San Diego and Riverside County Mountains
and lower deserts where the atmosphere is saturated from the surface
to 20kft. Storm total precip through tonight could exceed 1 inch in
some of the mountain and foothill areas. Farther northwest the lower
layers remain fairly dry and very little if any rain will fall over
Orange County and San Bernardino County.
48. I'm aware of that system. The user I quoted stated we'd only seen one minimal hurricane this season, when we've actually seen a major hurricane that he/she seemed to forget, which is why I made my joke.
Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:

48. I'm aware of that system. The user I quoted stated we'd only seen one minimal hurricane this season, when we've actually seen a major hurricane that he/she seemed to forget, which is why I made my joke.


How could you be? No one ever brings it up
Central gulf spinner...
Quoting 42. hydrus:

Hurricane Flora was an absolute nightmare..I believe Flora was a cat-5 when it hit Haiti, even though they have it listed as a cat-4....At 145 mph sustained, it was close anyway..It was said that if Flora hit today, the death toll would be even higher..Flora remained a hurricane the entire time over Cuba, and spent four days making a counter-clockwise loop over Oriente Province........ Santiago de Cuba recorded over 100 inches of rain...I should mention that Flora killed well over 7000 people...5000 in Haiti alone...






That's the storm Cuba accused the United States of "steering" it with experimental seeding of storms. LOL!
Cyberteddy, I'm going out to east New Orleans Thursday to get a tour of the SLS progress.

Sept. 19, 2016
Piece by Piece: Building Space Launch Systems Core Stage




With the latest guidance and possibly dry air continuing to follow Karl I think it will peak as a 80-90 mph Hurricane, Bermuda still needs to be aware and alert.
Quoting 58. Patrap:

Cyberteddy, I'm going out to east New Orleans to get a tour of the SLS progress.

Sept. 19, 2016
Piece by Piece: Building Space Launch System’s Core Stage





Nice! What's interesting is a lot of people don't know how close Hurricane Katrina nearly destroyed that facility and thus the Space Shuttle program. Several shuttle tanks were damaged pretty badly too.
when is this blog gonna get fixed......
Quoting 58. Patrap:

Cyberteddy, I'm going out to east New Orleans Thursday to get a tour of the SLS progress.

Sept. 19, 2016
Piece by Piece: Building Space Launch System%u2019s Core Stage






Man, that would make one heck of a fermentation chamber!
Quoting 10. gunhilda:

Potential typos:
"Through they’ve been numerous," should that be "Though?" Also, "Malays is the sixth..." Should that be "Malakas?"


Thanks, Gunhilda! Good catches. My spellchecker was converting "Malakas" to "Malays"--thought I'd caught all of those.
Found this in the media PDF they sent to us going on the tour.

The fully complete SLS core stage with the 4 RS 25 engines installed...in barge loaded here configuration for the trip to KSC.



File image of shuttle ET barge loading in Nola.


EURO has a weak low approaching the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours
Quoting 60. CybrTeddy:



Nice! What's interesting is a lot of people don't know how close Hurricane Katrina nearly destroyed that facility and thus the Space Shuttle program. Several shuttle tanks were damaged pretty badly too.


Well for sure you did not forget this story CT.


Courage is found in the individuals who banded together for the Nation in a time of great danger then,and post storm.

I will def add this reminder when I write the entry to come after the tour.


House comends Employees of NASA's Michoud Facility for Dedicated Service During Katrina



July 24, 2006

image
WASHINGTON - The House of Representatives today passed by voice vote, H. Res 892, a resolution commending the dedicated employees of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Michoud Assembly Facility, the "Michoud Hurricane Ride-Out Team", who risked their lives during Hurricane Katrina's assault on southeast Louisiana.

Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY) made the following statement [Subcommittee Chairman Calvert's statement follows]:

Mr. Speaker, I rise today in support of H. Res. 892, as amended, which recognizes the dedicated employees of NASA's Michoud Assembly Facility, the "Michoud Hurricane Ride-out Team."

Knowing full well the potential for disaster, and the impending danger they faced as Hurricane Katrina bore down on the Gulf Coast, 38 dedicated and heroic individuals put themselves in harm's way to save the Michoud Assembly Facility, which is of vital importance to our Nation's civil space program.

Located just 15 miles from New Orleans's French Quarter, this facility is where NASA constructs the Space Shuttle's External Tanks. Before the Shuttle, this facility was where NASA manufactured the gargantuan tanks on the Saturn rocket that took us to the Moon. In the future, NASA plans to use the facility to construct the rockets that will return us to the Moon.

These 38 brave employees risked life and limb to protect this valuable facility that ensures our Nation's preeminence in space. Facing 178 mile-per-hour winds that ripped large chunks of surrounding buildings clean off, the intrepid Ride-Out Team kept to its motto: "Not on Our Watch."

By keeping generators and water pumps running throughout the storm, they managed to prevent the facility from flooding and preserved important flight hardware that has kept the space program on track.

Because of the Ride-Out Team's efforts, the facility was up and running only a few weeks after the storm had passed. After just three months, nearly all 2,000 employees had returned to the facility despite the fact that 600 of them had lost their own homes.

By saving the facility, and returning it to operation as quickly as they did, they were able to get to work right away on External Tank modifications necessary for the second Return-to-Flight mission that took place this month.

Many of these individuals have rightly earned NASA's Exceptional Bravery Medal from NASA Administrator Michael Griffin already, but they are also worthy of the House's commendation as well.

So, I once again rise in strong support of this much over-due resolution, because as Michael Griffin stated earlier this year, "not all of NASA's hero's fly in space."

Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics Chairman Ken Calvert (R-CA) made the following statement:

Mr. Speaker, I rise in support of H. Res. 892, which recognizes the dedication of the employees at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Michoud Assembly Facility. The end of next month is the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's landfall on our Gulf coast. Today we celebrate the bravery exhibited by the "Michoud Hurricane Ride-out Team," which saved not only the facility, but also our Nation's manned space program.

Last week, both Houses of Congress passed H. Con. Res. 448, which commended the men and women of NASA, the crew of the Space Shuttle Discovery, and NASA Administrator Mike Griffin for the successful conclusion of the second return to flight test mission-STS-121. This would not have been possible without the thirty-eight brave members of the Michoud Ride-out Team. Many of the members of this team lost their homes and did not know the fate of their families until days after the Hurricane. They risked their lives manning generators and pumps at the Michoud Facility to protect the Shuttle's external tank program and, hence, the future of the manned space program.

Despite the Facility's proximity to the center of the hurricane's destructive path, only one external tank was damaged when a concrete panel fell and bounced off the side of the tank. Despite the extensive damage to the 832 acre facility and the entire surrounding area, the Ride-out team exhibited the bravery and the pride for the importance of the space program not only to our Nation, but also to the area in Louisiana.

In September, as Chairman of the House Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee, I am planning to travel to both the Michoud Assembly Facility in Louisiana and the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi. I am looking forward to meeting some of these brave individuals, both at Michoud and at Stennis. Since I became the Chairman of this Subcommittee in 2005, I have visited 7 of NASA's 10 facilities around the country. I am looking forward to visiting and to learning even more of the importance of these NASA centers to our Nation's space program. Today, I want to extend thanks and gratitude from the American people for the outstanding work of these brave individuals at both the Michoud Assembly Facility and at the Stennis Space Center.

Thank you, Mr. Speaker.

// end //

NASA chief Michael Griffin surveys damage to one of the space shuttle's external tank which occured during Hurricane Katrina.
Credit: NASA.


News from the CPC: "During Week-2, the West Pacific is likely to remain active from near Taiwan out to 165E, while some activity is also indicated over the Atlantic, likely tied to Kelvin wave activity across this region."



I also just found an interesting site where you can watch how Itbayat went through the eye of Meranti. It's really a miracle everyone survived this monster!
So the 12z euro does show a low in central carrbbean for the first time while the 12z GFS .show Strom in the southern carrbbean interesting battle shaping up between these top modes
Quoting 8. bigwes6844:

From previous blog

To say it was a bust season to a lot of folks, we dont have that many names to go until we see the Greek alphabet.


HURRICANE NAMES
ATLANTIC TROPICAL (AND SUBTROPICAL) STORM NAMES FOR 2016
Alex Hermine Otto
Bonnie Ian Paula
Colin Julia Richard
Danielle Karl Shary
Earl Lisa Tobias
Fiona Matthew Virginie
Gaston Nicole Walter



We're one name past the halfway point in the names list. I, for one, am hoping we dont make it to the greek alphabet!
Coming up on an anniversary for Rita. Over 100 people died in the evacuation fiasco. Heat related illness was one of the factors. Here's a picture from the Houston-Galveston NWS office on why high temps accompanied the approach of Rita.



Rita made landfall early on Saturday that week. With fear gripping the community after Katrina, people bugged out early. NHC issued a hurricane warning for the Houston area at about 10 am Thursday morning, but the roads were impassable well before then.
Quoting 37. JNFlori30A:

just, why? seriously?


This is in reference to the storm hitting Florida in 384 hours (for those not in the loop).
Hurricane shutters are going up today. Don't want to wait until the last minute.
Here are the updated CIMMS vort charts for 2:00 PM: some very weak surface vort in the Gulf SE of LA as noted on the loops with a broader tilted vort (to the SW) at the mid-levels, and the TUTT cell in the Western Gulf enhancing some of the convection..............An interesting feature to watch if the low meanders around for a few days but just an elongated area of low pressure at the moment:
Surface:

Mid:

Tutt Cell:

Quoting 72. weathermanwannabe:

Here are the updated CIMMS vort charts for 2:00 PM: some very weak surface vort in the Gulf SE of LA as noted on the loops with a broader tilted vort (to the SW) at the mid-levels, and the TUTT cell in the Western Gulf enhancing some of the convection..............An interesting feature to watch if the low meanders around for a few days but just an elongated area of low pressure at the moment:
Surface:

Mid:

Tutt Cell:




It needs to find a way to isolate itself from all the dry air. The N.W. and N.C. Gulf of Mexico is so dry right now.
And the Tutt cell is retro-grading slowly to the West: the low is very close to land however and it would have to keep firing self-sustaining convection for any chance of possible development.  Have to see how it looks in the am at this point:




pouch 39 the real deal?
Quoting 13. Grothar:

This is 384 hours out. I do not trust models more than 380 hours.




That is 2 days after my friends from Germany are planning to arrive. Mother Nature would not do that to me would she?
Quoting75. islander101010


pouch 39 the real deal?
i suspect that it maybe. somehow i believe that this system could be a big player down the road
interesting 180 hrs gfs is showing p 39 organizing e of the s leewards
what about low west of karl.
Quoting 67. Carnivorous:

News from the CPC: "During Week-2, the West Pacific is likely to remain active from near Taiwan out to 165E, while some activity is also indicated over the Atlantic, likely tied to Kelvin wave activity across this region."



I also just found an interesting site where you can watch how Itbayat went through the eye of Meranti. It's really a miracle everyone survived this monster!



How did all of those structures survive in Itbayat? Landfall was near peak intensity of one of the top-10 typhoons on record?
The spin in the gulf is improving each hour. Watch it
Still raining in San Diego County....thank you Paine!

Quoting 65. HurricaneFan:

EURO has a weak low approaching the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours



Will be another slow developer... BORING!


Not a low rider.
85. THL3
Quoting 70. bappit:

Coming up on an anniversary for Rita. Over 100 people died in the evacuation fiasco. Heat related illness was one of the factors. Here's a picture from the Houston-Galveston NWS office on why high temps accompanied the approach of Rita.



Rita made landfall early on Saturday that week. With fear gripping the community after Katrina, people bugged out early. NHC issued a hurricane warning for the Houston area at about 10 am Thursday morning, but the roads were impassable well before then.


That was a disaster in the Houston area.
Quoting 33. cRRKampen:


But most were rather ailing systems, only one weak hurricane. Well, season is just over half way.


You really think a Category 3 is weak? Gastonic Gaston was a Category 3, and the best looking storm I have ever seen.
Mite get real interesting next week
Quoting 81. WeatherkidJoe2323:

The spin in the gulf is improving each hour. Watch it


It's persistent, but that dry air flowing in from the northwest is going to make it hard for anything to come from it.
As of 3:45pm est Karl seems to be residing at about 20N almost at 55W and if anything is in the process of ejecting itself out to the southwest of the convection. I still think Bermuda is going to be at a higher risk than what is currently given from the NHC for a center track along the cone. Now time to look at the 12Z models. Hope I do not have to eat my words as usual.
Quoting 80. augustwesttx:




How did all of those structures survive in Itbayat? Landfall was near peak intensity of one of the top-10 typhoons on record?


Good question! The terrain of Itbayat is pretty hilly so I would guess the village there was somewhat sheltered from the winds. Also, impacts from super typhoons are not uncommon there. Their buildings are likely designed to withstand strong winds. However, it's still a miracle...
i most have been seeing things this AM then but when i 1st woke up saw on the tropical weather out look a yellow X with 30% / 60% of some in be comeing a sub tropical or tropical storm by the end of the week with the next update by 9am


any one else this AM seen a yellow X ?
Quoting 81. WeatherkidJoe2323:

The spin in the gulf is improving each hour. Watch it


Why won't you listen son? The season is over kid..in fact, my empirical study has shown me the next landfalling hurricane in the GOM will be in August 2019, and the east coast in September 2022..until then, no worries
Quoting 91. thetwilightzone:

i most have been seeing things this AM then but when i 1st woke up saw on the tropical weather out look a yellow X with 30% / 60% of some in be comeing a sub tropical or tropical storm by the end of the week with the next update by 9am


any one else this AM seen a yellow X ?


A few of us did on the last blog. I thought I lost my mind.

Quoting 267. NortheastGuy:

Strange? Did anybody notice the yellow x that the NHC site had up for a special 7:40 am advisory, maybe a 200 to 250 miles north of Hisponola? In the wording it was suppose to move west-northwest or northwest towards the CONUS. It was there at that time, but when I checked back at 8 am it wasn't there. Was it a TYPO. Or is it that it hasn't been loaded on their site yet?
edit double posted somehow
by the way what is that spining next too karl ?

Quoting 83. CaribBoy:



Will be another slow developer... BORING!
This one is supposed to pick up an AC in the BOC area on top of the hottest water in the Atlantic, Caribbean or GOM.
Quoting 76. SunnyDaysFla:



That is 2 days after my friends from Germany are planning to arrive. Mother Nature would not do that to me would she?
Did not they say experiencing a hurricane is on their bucket list?
Lisa... Julie

(Couldn't help myself:>)
I predict that nothing will happen. Unless of course something happens. In which case something will have happened.
Quoting 93. adkonkle:



A few of us did on the last blog. I thought I lost my mind.

Quoting 267. NortheastGuy:

Strange? Did anybody notice the yellow x that the NHC site had up for a special 7:40 am advisory, maybe a 200 to 250 miles north of Hisponola? In the wording it was suppose to move west-northwest or northwest towards the CONUS. It was there at that time, but when I checked back at 8 am it wasn't there. Was it a TYPO. Or is it that it hasn't been loaded on their site yet?



i wounder if its that cut off low thats spining next too karl right now
Quoting 86. 62901IL:



You really think a Category 3 is weak? Gastonic Gaston was a Category 3, and the best looking storm I have ever seen.

Andrew, Isabel, Katrina, Wilma, ect. While Gaston was a beautiful cat. 3 annular beast ... definately dosent qualify as best storm u have ever seen ... I hope lol
Quoting 95. thetwilightzone:

by the way what is that spining next too karl ?


TUTT
Quoting 83. CaribBoy:



Will be another slow developer... BORING!
Is still a week away.
Quoting 102. Gearsts:

TUTT


ok
The Central Atlantic middle passage (Africa to the Caribbean) has been such a graveyard in terms of dry air issues for major storm development for the past several seasons; no way to know this far out what the current batch of convection over Africa will look like when it starts emerging off-shore but we will have to see what happens..........This pending batch may be the last chance before sheer starts to slowly creep up again:




  
Quoting 102. Gearsts:

TUTT



where going too have too watch that TUTT with low wind shear in the area its all so really starting too pop T storms with it
Quoting 76. SunnyDaysFla:



That is 2 days after my friends from Germany are planning to arrive. Mother Nature would not do that to me would she?
Oh yea, she would. But, don't take it personal!
Quoting 42. hydrus:

Hurricane Flora was an absolute nightmare..I believe Flora was a cat-5 when it hit Haiti, even though they have it listed as a cat-4....At 145 mph sustained, it was close anyway..It was said that if Flora hit today, the death toll would be even higher..Flora remained a hurricane the entire time over Cuba, and spent four days making a counter-clockwise loop over Oriente Province........ Santiago de Cuba recorded over 100 inches of rain...I should mention that Flora killed well over 7000 people...5000 in Haiti alone...






The two pictures you have posted give different information on the track. One appears to have an extra loop in one of them (looking at the bottom one). Also the one with the color-coated rain amounts angers me, as it uses the colors to represent TWO different rainfall totals. Who made this? This is worse than not having the information, as the information given is ambiguous.

I'm asking who made this in a rhetorical way, as the information is located on this website, which also contains a typo in the few words given, furthering the credibility issues I have with it (read end of 2nd line where it should read 'view' and not "few"): http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/flora19 63.html
Track shifted slightly east, no change in strength yet
Quoting 90. Carnivorous:



Good question! The terrain of Itbayat is pretty hilly so I would guess the village there was somewhat sheltered from the winds. Also, impacts from super typhoons are not uncommon there. Their buildings are likely designed to withstand strong winds. However, it's still a miracle...
I also kind of wonder if those winds measured at sfmr was more at flight level and didn't quite make it down to the surface or if it did because it is a small island the strongest winds remained offshore? With the path that Meranti took the northeastern eyeball which is typically the most damaging may have remained just offshore.

The statistics as of September 17 was 292 homes destroyed and 932 damaged across Batanes.

The following infrastructures sustained damages in the Province of Batanes:

1) BFAR AND TESDA Buildings
2) Basco Central School
3) Batanes National High School
4) Provincial Capitol
5) Sto. Domingo Church
6) Batanes General Hospital

The following items are in need:

1) Food Items and Water
2) Generator
3) Transformers
4) Galvanized Irons
5) Construction Materials
6) Ropes

Republic of the Philippines: National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council
looking forward too new blog

today it still feels like late july early august low 80's with heat index
we got some cooling coming late week maybe its a sign
Quoting 85. THL3:
That was a disaster in the Houston area.
Yeah, Mayor Bill White told everyone to leave on Wednesday well before a warning was issued, and the NHC issued the warning earlier than normal on Thursday morning to allow extra time for evacuation. The city was in panic mode before any warning was issued. [And the warning was canceled for Houston before Rita made landfall.]

All the Katrina evacuees located in Texas hotels/motels made the situation even more obnoxious. Not the Katrina evacuees fault, of course.
Hurricane Season ends nov 30 2016

secondary peak comes in october
storms travel from the sw towards ne
from southern gulf and nw carb
Quoting 95. thetwilightzone:

by the way what is that spining next too karl ?




-Thankfully Karl is not any stronger due to shear...If Karl had been unhindered in development- given the actual size of the system's circulation- it could have been a much more serious situation; Especially due to the fact that Karl is now moving due West- if not Slightly South of due West.

Yet Again, another likely impact from a system at 55W & during the night time which is likely to strengthen very near to the islands due to the Lesser Antilles Rule.

God Bless!
More ECMWF ensembles are onboard today with development of the African Wave in the Caribbean in the long range.


the end of cv season is near
Normally hot and dry Palm Springs is currently reporting moderate rain and only 70 F. Light rain and only 79 F at Needles. Light rain reported at San Diego and Orange County.
Quoting 87. bigwes6844:
Mite get real interesting next week
mentioned the possibility of a low rider as a potential trouble maker down the road yesterday, will just have to see if it can make it all the way across in decent shape-if so, game on
Quoting 87. bigwes6844:

Mite get real interesting next week



That's old. I posted it last night. :)
the next 3 named storms for the E PAC are

Roslyn ,Seymour and Tina


the next 3 named storms for Atlantic is

Matthew,Nicole and Otto


it is a race on oh can get too the last named storm on the list 1st
after work tune



🌅🌎🌛🌊🌉



LED estimate's August flooding caused $8.7 billion in damages to Louisiana




The following is a news release from Louisiana Economic Development:

BATON ROUGE, La. — Louisiana Economic Development estimates the August 2016 Louisiana Flood caused $8.7 billion in damage to Louisiana residential and commercial properties, with damage to businesses in the state exceeding $2 billion. Those figures do not include damage to the state’s public infrastructure.

LED commissioned economist Dek Terrell of Lewis Terrell and Associates LLC to conduct the damage assessment in support of efforts by Gov. John Bel Edwards to gain federal appropriations from Congress. Those appropriations would be in addition to Louisiana recovery efforts being led by FEMA, the U.S. Small Business Administration and other federal, state and local agencies. Gov. Edwards is seeking $2 billion that would be delivered as disaster assistance through Community Development Block Grants managed by the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development.

In addition to an estimated 109,000 housing units damaged, nearly 20,000 Louisiana businesses were interrupted by the flooding that began Aug. 11 and continued for days, leading to the flooding of more than 6,000 businesses in 22 affected parishes. LED also surveyed 455 economic driver firms in flood-impacted regions – those employers that contribute the most output to the state’s economy – and found that 6 percent suffered significant damage while 9 percent sustained minor damage.

“The good news we want to project is that most of our major industries in Louisiana remained open and today are continuing their operations successfully,” LED Secretary Don Pierson said. “During the three-week period after the flooding event began, Louisiana shouldered labor and value-added production losses that affected 6 percent of our economic activity statewide. As a state economy we are doing better every day, and we remain strong and open for business.”

Nevertheless, the flooding of housing inventory – affecting three of every four homes in Livingston Parish, for example – combined with damage to schools, businesses, churches and public infrastructure to disrupt daily life for hundreds of thousands of people. At peak, LED estimates that 278,500 Louisiana residents were unable to work due to temporary closures, suspension of operations, transportation impasses and residential flooding. Many of those residents continue to seek assistance through FEMA, SBA and contractors as they rebuild their lives.

“While our economy as a whole is healthy, many of our residents have not been made whole in their home or work life yet,” Secretary Pierson said. “Our friends, families and colleagues, including many in our own department, are doing the difficult work of rebuilding their lives and we are doing everything we can to support them. That support extends to our vital small business community. We are delivering more resources and assistance to them daily and will stand by them as they reopen their firms and restore the critically important framework of our small business economy. Small businesses are big business in our state, representing more than 97 percent of all Louisiana business establishments and more than half of our private-sector workforce.”

LED is providing a complete resource guide for flood assistance at OpportunityLouisiana.com.

Included in that effort are seven Business Recovery Centers opened in flood-impacted regions in conjunction with SBA and the Louisiana Small Business Development Center Network.

SBA is leading efforts to provide disaster loan assistance to homeowners, businesses of all sizes and many nonprofit organizations. The LSBDC Network is providing guidance to help small business owners plan and implement their recovery. Together, they’ve visited more than 2,200 individuals through Business Recovery Center outreach in Louisiana, with nearly 50,000 calls fielded by SBA customer service representatives and SBA loan approvals to date reaching more than $236 million. FEMA has disbursed more than $505 million in individual assistance to help residents who were uninsured or underinsured for flood losses. The National Flood Insurance Program, managed by FEMA, has authorized more than $274 million in flood insurance claims to date in the state.

On Friday, FEMA surpassed $1 billion in total federal assistance to Louisiana disaster survivors and communities, less than 30 days after the flooding event began. More than 63,000 Louisiana families are receiving housing-related assistance through federal programs.

Secretary Pierson said federal, state and local partners have risen to the occasion to provide a concerted, strong response, but Louisiana’s recovery needs remain great. As part of a comprehensive request for $2 billion in additional flood disaster assistance from Congress, LED hopes to secure more resources to provide bridge funding and infrastructure resources that will restore Louisiana businesses.

“Our view is fixed on long-term solutions that will sustain Louisiana’s impacted businesses,” Pierson said, “not only to help them renovate their damaged structures, not only to help them reopen their doors, but to regenerate the working capital and revenue they need to survive this disaster and to become healthy contributors to Louisiana’s economic success far into the future.”

56 minutes ago
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
G-IV aircraft is directly measuring 30-40 kt shearing winds out of the SSE at ~170mb over #Karl's center. Very unfavorable for strengthening
Quoting 124. WeatherkidJoe2323:


56 minutes ago
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
G-IV aircraft is directly measuring 30-40 kt shearing winds out of the SSE at ~170mb over #Karl's center. Very unfavorable for strengthening


so am gusting this is wrong then ?




showing 5 to 10kt of shear
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

🌉🌙🌅🌎🌊



Tucson checking in...

Paine is bringing no raine!

Can't even get rain with tropical systems here. :(
undefined
Quoting 129. ibhybhhb:


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Intresteg.......

m>
Been raining since 9am this morning, nothing real heavy but have picked up between 1/2 and 3/4 " of rain at mi casa. Still raining

Does this one work?
Nice rainfall totals in San Diego County............. 1.07 at my mountain location.......and lesser amounts as you get closer to the coast. Just had a shower this am and possible thundershowers/storms this pm.

Rainfall totals:

Link