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Karl and Lisa Fail to Impress; Paine’s Moisture Spritzes the U.S. Southwest

By: Bob Henson 4:49 PM GMT on September 21, 2016

The possibility of two hurricanes--or even one--in the Atlantic this week is diminishing, as the two tropical storms far out at sea are falling short of model projections and forecaster expectations. Meanwhile, two new systems in the Pacific could end up being significant, especially one in the Northwest Pacific that could threaten China and/or Taiwan as a typhoon next week.

Karl now a depression
Downgraded on Wednesday morning after six days as a tropical storm, Tropical Depression Karl is now clinging to life in the central Atlantic, still with some hope of strengthening. Located about 265 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands, Karl’s top sustained winds were just 35 mph as of the 11 am EDT Wednesday advisory from the National Hurricane Center.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Karl as of 1545Z (11:45 am EDT) Wednesday, September 21, 2016.

To say Karl has been unimpressive is putting it mildly. Karl’s peak winds since becoming a tropical storm on Thursday have yet to top 45 mph. Phil Klotzbach pointed out on Tuesday that Karl was tied with Tropical Storm Dennis (1981) for having generated the least amount of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in its first five days for any Atlantic storm since satellite monitoring began in 1966. As we noted yesterday, Karl has been plagued by moderately strong wind shear and relatively dry air at middle levels of the atmosphere. Together, these have kept Karl’s showers and thunderstorms shunted well east of its low-level center, thus keeping the storm from gathering strength. For much of Karl’s life, wind shear had been stronger than expected--a frequent occurrence in the Atlantic this season. As NHC forecaster Lixion Avila put it in a discussion this morning: “Global models have totally failed so far in forecasting the upper-level winds surrounding Karl. The upper-low near Karl which unanimously all models have been forecasting to weaken is still strong and producing shear over the cyclone.”

Karl is still expected to recurve toward the northeast around Friday, eventually accelerating toward an upper-level low in the North Atlantic. Our best track models now agree on keeping Karl southeast of Bermuda, most likely well to the southeast, where it may finally have a chance to intensify. Sea surface temperatures at that location are 1°C to 1.5°C above average (1.8-2.7°F), and Karl will have left behind the tenacious upper low that’s hindered its growth. The official NHC forecast brings Karl to hurricane strength for only a day, on Sunday, before it shoots northeast and becomes an extratropical storm. Less than half of the members of the 00Z Wednesday GFS and European model ensemble members bring Karl to hurricane strength, and I won’t be at all surprised if Karl never reaches that threshold.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Lisa as of 1445Z (10:45 am EDT) Wednesday, September 21, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Lisa continues rolling through eastern Atlantic
Sprawling yet still fairly disorganized, Tropical Storm Lisa is only slowly gaining strength in the eastern Atlantic, about 580 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as of 11 am EDT Wednesday. Lisa’s top sustained winds are now 50 mph, with showers and thunderstorms scattered widely around its somewhat ill-defined center. Lisa continues on a well-predicted northwest track that will keep it safely away from land areas. Only a tiny fraction of ensemble members from the 00Z Wednesday GFS and European model runs bring Lisa to hurricane strength, and the official NHC forecast has Lisa peaking as a mid-strength tropical storm. Lisa’s location and satellite appearance on Tuesday bore a striking similarity to our last Tropical Storm Lisa, from 2010 (see embedded image at bottom).


Figure 3. Typical areas of tropical development in the Atlantic during October. Image credit: NOAA/NHC.


Elsewhere in the Atlantic: Quiet for now
There are no other areas of immediate concern in the tropical Atlantic. We’re now on the downswing of the Cape Verde season, so we can expect fewer systems to be traversing the region from Africa to the Caribbean. Recent runs of the GFS model have suggested that a low-latitude tropical wave could make this trek next week and strengthen in the Caribbean more than a week from now. As we head toward October, we’ll need to watch the Caribbean more closely, as this becomes a more favored area for development (see Figure 3 above).


Figure 4. Moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine (located just off the coast of Baja California) continues to funnel into southern California and Arizona, as shown in this visible satellite image from 1615Z (12:15 am EDT) Wednesday, September 21, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Paine’s moisture heads into Southwest U.S.
With the headline “Paine goes away,” NHC discontinued advisories on former Hurricane Paine on Tuesday night, as the rapidly decaying system continued on its northward path west of Baja California, Mexico. As of 11 am EDT Wednesday, Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine was located near the central coast of Baja California, still bearing 35 mph sustained winds but lacking the showers and thunderstorms (convection) that would qualify it as a tropical depression.

Some of Paine’s moisture is feeding into the Southwest U.S., with additional moisture being shuttled into the area ahead of an upper-level trough. At 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Wednesday, the atmospheric sounding from San Diego, CA, showed 2.12” of precipitable water (the amount of water in a column of air over a particular point). This puts Wednesday morning in a tie for the largest amount of atmospheric moisture recorded in September at San Diego since soundings began in 1948. Welcome rains of 1” - 2” have fallen in parts of Southern California’s high country since Monday. Even San Diego’s Lindbergh Field got in on the action, with 0.31” recorded in the 48 hours through 8:00 am MDT Wednesday. It’s the heaviest rain observed there since May 5-6.


Figure 5. Infrared image of Invest 94E at 1600Z (noon EDT) Wednesday, September 21, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Next up in the East Pacific: 94E
The next in the seemingly endless string of systems in the East Pacific is Invest 94E, located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. On its expected westward path over the next several days, 94E will benefit from warm SSTs (28-29°C) and a moist atmosphere (mid-level relative humidity of 70-75%), with light to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. As of Wednesday morning, 94E featured a large envelope of moisture and scattered convection but not much organization yet. Like Paine, 94E is likely to be pulled northward toward Baja California after a few days of westward motion.

Another potential threat to East and Southeast Asia next week
Global models are suggesting that a tropical cyclone expected to form in the next day or two several hundred miles east-southeast of Guam has a good shot at intensifying into a significant typhoon. This system is still a few days away from the Northern Philippines, Taiwan, and the South China coast. Any of these could be eventual targets, according to the 00Z runs of the UKMET, European, and GFS models. Further north, Japan was picking up the pieces after the departure of Typhoon Malakas, which killed 2 people and triggered widespread flooding and landslides across southern Japan.

We’ll be back on Thursday morning with our next update.

Bob Henson



Figure 6. Philippe Papin (University of Albany, State University of New York) says:
“#Lisa (2016) is a mirror image of Lisa (2010) occurring exactly 6 years ago in nearly the exact same location. Incredible. #tropics #dejavu”. Image credit: @pppapin.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

HARP
Thanks Mr. Henson ***Repost from last blog***

The wind shear forecast by the GFS is for favorable wind shear in the MDR. Once Karl and Lisa complete their recurve or get absorbed by the trough, the ridge in the Eastern Atlantic will rebuild back in. However, the mid-levels look to remain somewhat dry, quite possibly due to another outbreak of African Dust, which would limit development. The big question (?) is where does this tropical wave go. The GFS has it crashing into the north coast of South America this run, while the Euro takes it into the Central Lesser Antilles. This is all within 7-9 days. The GFS is also faster by about a day than the Euro in terms of speed. After that it is just too far out in time to know, what the shear and moisture content will be like in the Caribbean Sea. One thing is certain though, the TCHP and SST in the Western Caribbean is some of the warmest on the planet. If a system can take advantage of that then watch out!



While the forecasting of ulls that have caused shear to disrupt development for many systems in the ATL this season has been pretty hit or miss, does transitioning out of El Nino and into more or less neutral conditions in the PAC have much to do with the high shear in the basin this season?

Quoting 209. RickWPB:

Repost from last blog.

It's really easy. My ignore list is now up to 229. Just click on 'ignore' link under the post of the person you want to ignore, then on the next page you should see your current ignore list with tha last on that list being the new one you're trying to ignore. Then at the bottom of that page, click 'update this list'.


I tried clicking on Ignore User and it takes me to my wonderblog page, which I have never used, but anyway I can't find my ignore list on that page. Can someone tell me where to find the ignore list on my blog page?
Quoting 2. Icybubba:

Just click the links


Please stop posting links to a conspiracy theory website. TIA
Like I was saying, conditions suck in the mdr.  NW Caribbean or GOM is the best chance.  I have zero confidence that a low rider storm will materialize into anything more than the mdr has produced so far this year.
I like to look at this satellite imagery, since it is the most current to see what's going on over Africa. The tropical wave is over Sierra Leone and Guinea. It may not look like much now, but small things come in big packages.

Quoting 4. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Thanks Mr. Henson ***Repost from last blog***

The wind shear forecast by the GFS is for favorable wind shear in the MDR. Once Karl and Lisa complete their recurve or get absorbed by the trough, the ridge in the Eastern Atlantic will rebuild back in. However, the mid-levels look to remain somewhat dry, quite possibly due to another outbreak of African Dust, which would limit development. The big question (?) is where does this tropical wave go. The GFS has it crashing into the north coast of South America this run, while the Euro takes it into the Central Lesser Antilles. This is all within 7-9 days. The GFS is also faster by about a day than the Euro in terms of speed. After that it is just too far out in time to know, what the shear and moisture content will be like in the Caribbean Sea. One thing is certain though, the TCHP and SST in the Western Caribbean is some of the warmest on the planet. If a system can take advantage of that then watch out!






Late Sep-Oct could be interesting, but I'm going to remain skeptical about shear forecasts over 3 days out.
I've been reading post about it getting interesting since May.  Maybe the NW Caribbean can produce a major storm.  That would make the Kid happy.
Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson; as noted below by GT, that trek across the Central Atlantic between Africa on a line to the Lesser Antilles has not been very kind for hurricane development over the past 11 years. This includes this current season, due to very dry air issues in the Central Atlantic, as well as the lack of a supportive ITCZ which seems to build up in June-July every season recently only to evaporate in August and September leaving the few waves that do make depression or TD status struggling to sustain enough convection, or stack vertically, to be able to reach hurricane status before getting to the Antilles.

Best possible chance for this pending wave, if it does materialize, is the usual weak trek into the Caribbean with hopes of developing in the Western Caribbean or a trek North of PR towards the Bahamas.

Take all of the current model runs as to this wave (over 300 hours out) with a big grain of salt until we see how it does after splashdown into the Central Atlantic.






The shear forecasts for Karl have been a disaster. Upper-level winds have not slackened, and the period of low shear is significantly reduced since shear should increase as the storm is recurving. It would not surprise me if Karl never became a hurricane.
i just want some cooler and less humid air to arrive here in miami.but like the doctor said hurricane season is not over yet and we all will have to watch the Caribbean sea in the month of october.right now is thundering outside my house and its also raining quite a bit too.


anyways,what chances are that karl will head more westerly because of its shallow nature?
Hi, all. We have added one more all-time national record to the list published in yesterday's global climate report for August:

The British Virgin Islands [United Kingdom territory] set its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95.0°F] at Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport.

This brings our total of all-time national records for the year to 20...a record in itself!
Thanks for the update!

The 12z GFS is predicting a huge eye for the next WPac system (which will get the infamous name Megi by the way). It seems like the eye has a diameter of more than 150 miles (240 km)! That would be just incredible to watch with rapid-scan Himawari-8 satellite imagery...

GEFS shifted north for my pleasure:)

Huge shift, and huge split.
Serious flooding in SE Virginia now taking place after two days of non-stop rain. Bands are beginning to move inland and heavy rain also extends into central North Carolina:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE CITY OF CHESAPEAKE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF PORTSMOUTH IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF NORFOLK IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF SUFFOLK IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 1100 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR MEASUREMENTS AND AUTOMATED RAIN
GAUGES INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE AREA. THE
HEAVY RAIN IS CAUSING FLOODING. SIX TO TWELVE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN. HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
STANDING WATER TO RECEDE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. EXPECT FLOODING
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
VIRGINIA BEACH...DOWNTOWN NORFOLK...DOWNTOWN PORTSMOUTH...
OCEAN VIEW...KEMPSVILLE...GREAT BRIDGE...OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY...
HOLLAND...DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK...CHURCHLAND...REGENT UNIVERSITY...
NORFOLK STATE UNIVERSITY...VIRGINIA WESLEYAN COLLEGE...
DEEP CREEK...NORFOLK...CHESAPEAKE...PORTSMOUTH...SUFFOL K...
BOWERS HILL AND NORVIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.


Quoting 17. CaribBoy:

GEFS shifted north for my pleasure:)

Huge shift, and huge split.
Yep.
Pictures of flooding in Norfolk:

Link
Quoting 14. knightwarrior41:

i just want some cooler and less humid air to arrive here in miami.but like the doctor said hurricane season is not over yet and we all will have to watch the Caribbean sea in the month of october.right now is thundering outside my house and its also raining quite a bit too.


anyways,what chances are that karl will head more westerly because of its shallow nature?


I'm with you about the cooler weather. Where are you that you are getting rained on?, I'm melting in the Redlands!
The Low Rider poof in the 12Z GFS
I think we'll have a clearer picture by this weekend on what we'll be tracking.
Quoting 15. BobHenson:

Hi, all. We have added one more all-time national record to the list published in yesterday's global climate report for August:

The British Virgin Islands [United Kingdom territory] set its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95.0°F] at Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport.

This brings our total of all-time national records for the year to 20...a record in itself!
oh wow that's really balmy even for the caribbean islands.thanks for the post
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Pat how was your Michoud visit? Were you a VIP or do they run regular tours out there?
Quoting 22. FreakingWearher:

The Low Rider poof in the 12Z GFS


Don't know what run you saw but it's still there....

Quoting 16. Carnivorous:

Thanks for the update!

The 12z GFS is predicting a huge eye for the next WPac system (which will get the infamous name Megi by the way). It seems like the eye has a diameter of more than 150 miles (240 km)! That would be just incredible to watch with rapid-scan Himawari-8 satellite imagery...



Just for the record, the largest eye ever is 230 miles.
Quoting 21. tropicofcancer:



I'm with you about the cooler weather. Where are you that you are getting rained on?, I'm melting in the Redlands!
near miami lakes


Ey... Northeast movement? Okay, are you serious?
I posted this earlier. The Caribbean has been unfavorable all summer and is extremely unfavorable now.

Quoting 6. DogtownMex:


Quoting 209. RickWPB:

Repost from last blog.

It's really easy. My ignore list is now up to 229. Just click on 'ignore' link under the post of the person you want to ignore, then on the next page you should see your current ignore list with tha last on that list being the new one you're trying to ignore. Then at the bottom of that page, click 'update this list'.


I tried clicking on Ignore User and it takes me to my wonderblog page, which I have never used, but anyway I can't find my ignore list on that page. Can someone tell me where to find the ignore list on my blog page?


On the top right of this page, click on "My Profile"
Then click on "My Blog"
Scroll down and on the right there are 8 items listed
Click on #7 which says "Edit Ignored List"
Scroll down and there are 5 spaces shown there
Type the Handle of the person you want to ignore in one of the spaces
Click on "Upgrade Ignored List"
Bingo, you won't see that persons comments again
Unless someone else quotes them of course. LOL

Tropical Tidbrits

Quoting 26. CW7859:



Don't know what run you saw but it's still there....


Quoting 26. CW7859:



Don't know what run you saw but it's still there....


He/she meant to say it's weaker on its approach to the north coast of South America, which makes sense since land interaction would disrupt it. But I noticed a tightly compact 850 mb. vorticity, which survives and re-emerges back into the southern Caribbean. Still though anything from that point on is pretty much guess work, especially since we don't have a current storm for the models to initialize. Usually, 7 days is a pretty good stopping point.
Quoting 30. Bucsboltsfan:

I posted this earlier. The Caribbean has been unfavorable all summer and is extremely unfavorable now.


maybe all the action should be seen in the western carib?lets just wait and see :)
Quoting 34. knightwarrior41:

maybe all the action should be seen in the western carib?lets just wait and see :)


It's going to have to happen there, the GOM or off the se coast. And btw, climatology favors those areas.
Any moment now, Karl could open up.

Quoting 35. Bucsboltsfan:



It's going to have to happen there, the GOM or off the se coast. And btw, climatology favors those areas.


And, even though there are some areas in the Atlantic that are favorable because of the lack of wind shear, dry air is bad enough to prevent serious development.
Quoting 30. Bucsboltsfan:

I posted this earlier. The Caribbean has been unfavorable all summer and is extremely unfavorable now.




It ain't called the dead zone for nuthin'
39. bwi
GFS seems to be doing pretty well with tropical Atlantic genesis and intensification (or lack of) this year. (Note -- the prior comment is based on zero actual study of results, just a random Internet-style musing that may be completely innaccurate.)

Thus, I am interested in its persistent idea of a low rider crawling up the coast of South America and forming into a tropical depression around Curacao (or Aruba or Bonaire -- you get the point).

Plus, an extreme low riding hurricane was a key though fleeting and soon forgotten facet at the beginning of book two of the "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" series. Coincidence? I think not...


Quoting 200. no1der:

An Open Letter Regarding Climate Change From Concerned Members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences

Human-caused climate change is not a belief, a hoax, or a conspiracy. It is a physical reality. Fossil fuels powered the Industrial Revolution. But the burning of oil, coal, and gas also caused most of the historical increase in atmospheric levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. This increase in greenhouse gases is changing Earth's climate.

Our fingerprints on the climate system are visible everywhere. They are seen in warming of the oceans, the land surface, and the lower atmosphere. They are identifiable in sea level rise, altered rainfall patterns, retreat of Arctic sea ice, ocean acidification, and many other aspects of the climate system. Human-caused climate change is not something far removed from our day-to-day experience, affecting only the remote Arctic. It is present here and now, in our own country, in our own states, and in our own communities.

During the Presidential primary campaign, claims were made that the Earth is not warming, or that warming is due to purely natural causes outside of human control. Such claims are inconsistent with reality.

Others argued that no action is warranted until we have absolute certainty about human impacts on climate. Absolute certainty is unattainable. We are certain beyond a reasonable doubt, however, that the problem of human-caused climate change is real, serious, and immediate, and that this problem poses significant risks: to our ability to thrive and build a better future, to national security, to human health and food production, and to the interconnected web of living systems.

The basic science of how greenhouse gases trap heat is clear, and has been for over a century. Ultimately, the strength of that basic science brought the governments of the world to Paris in December 2015. They went to Paris despite pronounced differences in systems of government, in national self-interest, in culpability for past emissions of greenhouse gases, and in vulnerability to future climate change. The leaders of over 190 countries recognized that the problem of human-caused climate change is a danger to present and future citizens of our planet. They made national commitments to address this problem. It was a small but historic and vital first step towards more enlightened stewardship of Earth's climate system.

From studies of changes in temperature and sea level over the last million years, we know that the climate system has tipping points. Our proximity to these tipping points is uncertain. We know, however, that rapid warming of the planet increases the risk of crossing climatic points of no return, possibly setting in motion large-scale ocean circulation changes, the loss of major ice sheets, and species extinctions. The climatic consequences of exceeding such thresholds are not confined to the next one or two electoral cycles. They have lifetimes of many thousands of years.

The political system also has tipping points. Thus it is of great concern that the Republican nominee for President has advocated U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Accord. A "Parexit" would send a clear signal to the rest of the world: "The United States does not care about the global problem of human-caused climate change. You are on your own." Such a decision would make it far more difficult to develop effective global strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The consequences of opting out of the global community would be severe and long-lasting - for our planet's climate and for the international credibility of the United States.

The United States can and must be a major player in developing innovative solutions to the problem of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. Nations that find innovative ways of decarbonizing energy systems and sequestering CO2 will be the economic leaders of the 21st century. Walking away from Paris makes it less likely that the U.S. will have a global leadership role, politically, economically, or morally. We cannot afford to cross that tipping point.


I make a mistake with the region. I use Tropical Atlantic instead of North Atlantic. Regardless it was in the Tropical Atlantic before and know is poof.


Quoting 26. CW7859:



Don't know what run you saw but it's still there....


Quoting 38. win1gamegiantsplease:



It ain't called the dead zone for nuthin'


Yep.
Quoting 6. DogtownMex:


Quoting 209. RickWPB:

Repost from last blog.

It's really easy. My ignore list is now up to 229. Just click on 'ignore' link under the post of the person you want to ignore, then on the next page you should see your current ignore list with tha last on that list being the new one you're trying to ignore. Then at the bottom of that page, click 'update this list'.


I tried clicking on Ignore User and it takes me to my wonderblog page, which I have never used, but anyway I can't find my ignore list on that page. Can someone tell me where to find the ignore list on my blog page?




I have the same problem. I just have given up on trying to figure this out.
Karl looks like a headphone. :D

Quoting 43. Crackalackin73:





I have the same problem. I just have given up on trying to figure this out.

Follow RTLSNK directions on post 31 !
Did you try Post #31 directions?

Quoting 43. Crackalackin73:





I have the same problem. I just have given up on trying to figure this out.

Looks like Karl may have ducked under the current ongoing convective burst:





Some quite cold cloud tops with it.
Quoting 45. tropicofcancer:


Follow RTLSNK directions on post 31 !






ummm....I have several times.
Quoting 31. RTLSNK:



On the top right of this page, click on "My Profile"
Then click on "My Blog"
Scroll down and on the right there are 8 items listed
Click on #7 which says "Edit Ignored List"
Scroll down and there are 5 spaces shown there
Type the Handle of the person you want to ignore in one of the spaces
Click on "Upgrade Ignored List"
Bingo, you won't see that persons comments again
Unless someone else quotes them of course. LOL






yeah, I do not get the option list. Oh well, I'll just either hide or keep scrolling. No biggie.
Quoting 49. Crackalackin73:





yeah, I do not get the option list. Oh well, I'll just either hide or keep scrolling. No biggie.


You may want to create a "test blog" from your page and see if the option shows up then.
Quoting 49. Crackalackin73:





yeah, I do not get the option list. Oh well, I'll just either hide or keep scrolling. No biggie.


I'm a paid member, I don't know if the ignore list is only available for paid members or not.
Quoting 50. nrtiwlnvragn:



You may want to create a "test blog" from your page and see if the option shows up then.


Oh wow, I didn't think about that. TY!
Quoting 50. nrtiwlnvragn:



You may want to create a "test blog" from your page and see if the option shows up then.


I've never started a personal blog and it still shows up for me.
But that may work, I don't know.
Quoting 50. nrtiwlnvragn:



You may want to create a "test blog" from your page and see if the option shows up then.



That did it! Time to get ignoring!
I know that in order to ignore a user,first I had to create a blog.I'm not sure if the rules have changed or not as that was years ago.
Quoting 38. win1gamegiantsplease:



It ain't called the dead zone for nuthin'


You know, the 1980s (the first decade I really paid attention to tropical weather) are not considered to be part of the recent active period in the Atlantic, and yet I watched many systems enter/traverse the Eastern Caribbean and survive, even prosper during that time. Allen and Gilbert are two that come to mind right away, though there were others.

I'm no met but it does seem to me that mid- and upper-level dryness, shear, etc. are, even in the peak of H. season, much more unfavorable now than in the past. My Uncle has lived in Puerto Rico for more than 3 decades now, and the Saharan dust has done a number on his lungs in the past few years. I know climatologists said that they expected the Caribbean to grow drier due to climate change, but I never expected to see it happen so quickly. I'm not saying that what we're seeing is definitely AGW, but it does seem to me that something has changed from when the N. Atlantic was in its previous non-active era.
Quoting 55. washingtonian115:

I know that in order to ignore a user,first I had to create a blog.I'm not sure if the rules have changed or not as that was years ago.



yes, need to create a blog first. Wow, just wow.
Euro dropped development.
Quoting 54. Crackalackin73:




That did it! Time to get ignoring!


You can just click "ignore user" below a person's post and it'll bring you to the ignore list with their username on it, you then just click save near the bottom to confirm it.
Quoting 53. RTLSNK:



I've never started a personal blog and it still shows up for me.
But that may work, I don't know.



When I go to your page, you have a blank blog from March 2011. I'm pretty sure that's it.
hey jeff or bob


you for got too add 95E

EP, 95, 2016092118, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1372W, 20, 1009, LO
Quoting 58. CaribBoy:

Euro dropped development.


Doesn't drop it completely, it's weaker and slower at 192 hours. Unfortunately the vort is further south as well:

Models consistently underforecast shear in the MDR and with Karl. The wave coming off Africa: I don't expect that conditions will be favorable for development unless it makes it into the Western Caribbean. There it will have the best chance of development. What happens from there will also highly depend upon shear. In 2010 and 2011 which had much more favorable conditions basin-wide, both times hurricanes formed in the western Carribbean but were ripped apart by shear when they attempted to move out of the Caribbean, so I am also at this time highly skeptical that such a storm would impact the US. Looking back at the years with October Hurricanes in the Central or Western Caribbean, the rest of the basin and the seasons as a whole were much more active:
1998 with Mitch, rest of season was very active with high ACE
2001 with Michele, same story
2002 same story
2005 with Wilma, obviously much more active
2010/2011
2012 with Sandy

I cannot think of a single year where there was a hurricane in the Western Caribbean with the rest of the basin having these conditions. Do correct me though if I am wrong. For this reason I strongly bet against anything forming out of our future wave in the Western Caribbean. You can never say never in the tropics, but to me it does not look likely.

So in summary:
1. Too much shear in the MDR, system will have to wait for WCarib.
2. WCarib storms have almost never formed during October during seasons like this.
3. WCarib storms that do form would require shear to remain low north of it which is highly unlikely as troughs come down to avoid being ripped apart when they move out of the Caribbean.

So:
-MDR storm unlikey
-Caribbean storm unlikely
-Caribbean storm which forms and makes landfall in the US Very Unlikely

Disclaimer: I am not an expert and could be completely wrong.
Quoting 5. win1gamegiantsplease:
While the forecasting of ulls that have caused shear to disrupt development for many systems in the ATL this season has been pretty hit or miss, does transitioning out of El Nino and into more or less neutral conditions in the PAC have much to do with the high shear in the basin this season?
Don't know, but I've been thinking that the guy with the BIG FAN theory just might be on to something,lol. By the way you were right about Fran being a cat 3 at landfall,my info was wrong, my bad!
Quoting 58. CaribBoy:

Euro dropped development.


Not surprised
Interesting the 12z euro has agreed with the GFS now showing a low southern windard similar to GFS so the EUro agreeing with the the GFS that we will see at least a low talking a southern track of note the 12z EUro also develop another low in the central carribbean south of Jamaica the carribbean could be quite active next week
Quoting 47. Envoirment:

Looks like Karl may have ducked under the current ongoing convective burst:





Some quite cold cloud tops with it.


It is looking like it is trying to get a little bit better organized.
Interesting the 12z EURO now in agreement with the GFS that low pressure area could track southern windward also the 12z euro show another low in the central carribbean south of Jamaica I think in all models are hinting the carribbean could become favorable next week for development
Quoting 56. OrchidGrower:



You know, the 1980s (the first decade I really paid attention to tropical weather) are not considered to be part of the recent active period in the Atlantic, and yet I watched many systems enter/traverse the Eastern Caribbean and survive, even prosper during that time. Allen and Gilbert are two that come to mind right away, though there were others.

I'm no met but it does seem to me that mid- and upper-level dryness, shear, etc. are, even in the peak of H. season, much more unfavorable now than in the past. My Uncle has lived in Puerto Rico for more than 3 decades now, and the Saharan dust has done a number on his lungs in the past few years. I know climatologists said that they expected the Caribbean to grow drier due to climate change, but I never expected to see it happen so quickly. I'm not saying that what we're seeing is definitely AGW, but it does seem to me that something has changed from when the N. Atlantic was in its previous non-active era.


With regards to tc formation, it's a void spot for the most part. Other timelines see similar stats.



Not that they can't form there or traverse the region, it's just not normally a favorable spot generally due to lower divergence caused by the wind patterns in the area.
Test comment, time 3:13 pm Eastern

92 degrees here in Fort Myers. I'm hoping for an afternoon T storm to cool things off.
Quoting 58. CaribBoy:

Euro dropped development.
euro shows low in windard similar to the GFS now
Quoting 55. washingtonian115:

I know that in order to ignore a user,first I had to create a blog.I'm not sure if the rules have changed or not as that was years ago.

It works for me, and I haven't created a blog. Maybe something broke for certain members?
Another blog hiccough?
Quoting 16. Carnivorous:

Thanks for the update!

The 12z GFS is predicting a huge eye for the next WPac system (which will get the infamous name Megi by the way). It seems like the eye has a diameter of more than 150 miles (240 km)! That would be just incredible to watch with rapid-scan Himawari-8 satellite imagery...




Are models any good at predicting eye size? Does a large eye have any benefit or detriment for a system?
too late for the little spinner in the boc?
Quoting 27. 62901IL:


Just for the record, the largest eye ever is 230 miles.

Typhoon Winnie ... 1997?????
Blog dead or locked up again?

90 on the last day of summer in S C IL, no HI thanks to 62 d.p., 30.12", very light SSE to SE winds.
the mid level low in front of karl is an oddity. persistent too
Blog must have died again, no new posts in over 2 hours? Posting this at 4:46pm est.
Quoting 57. Crackalackin73:




yes, need to create a blog first. Wow, just wow.

Glad to see you got the 'ignore' thing working (affectionately referred to as the 'iggy' list).

What is strange is when I read any of your posts, at the bottom of your post there is no number for how many comments you've made. This is strange. This is the first time I've seen this. Maybe something to do with what's been going on in this blog, don't know.
darn, double post. sorry.
Quoting 31. RTLSNK:



On the top right of this page, click on "My Profile"
Then click on "My Blog"
Scroll down and on the right there are 8 items listed
Click on #7 which says "Edit Ignored List"
Scroll down and there are 5 spaces shown there
Type the Handle of the person you want to ignore in one of the spaces
Click on "Upgrade Ignored List"
Bingo, you won't see that persons comments again
Unless someone else quotes them of course. LOL




Sorry to be so inept but there are only, Blog control panel, recent posts, local weather and previous entries for 2016 listed on the right when I scroll down on the My Blog page????????
Not Again. I think they are trying to tell us something. They want us to leave so we cant say they shut us down?
Blog hole.....
Test
The fact that we have not had a major hurricane form between Africa and the Caribbean, and enter the Caribbean as a hurricane (which is related to the lucky streak for the US as well in terms of no majors since 2005), in over a decade now, is a truly remarkable statistic when compared to the frequency of Caribbean hurricanes that we used to see from time to time in the 30 years prior to 2005. If this trend continues for the next several seasons, some research will need to be done to try to find a connection between conditions in this sector of the Atlantic and climate change and/or drought issues as related to Africa or South America.........................Still a little early perhaps to jump to conclusions but this current climatology is very different from what we used to see in terms of wave to hurricane development between 10N and 20N on the way to the Caribbean.
little spin in the boc and another little potential just north of the yucatan. something wants to go
Blog broken again?
Quoting 60. Naga5000:




When I go to your page, you have a blank blog from March 2011. I'm pretty sure that's it.


Yes! that did it for me too. All I did was click on Create Blog and I got the ignore list option to appear.
Now when I hit ignore user I get the list with the name in the number 1 position but when I hit update ignore list it just reloads the list with out the name??? Maybe I just need to wait for the system to update my info....
Quoting 60. Naga5000:




When I go to your page, you have a blank blog from March 2011. I'm pretty sure that's it.


It's a false positive, don't know how it got there, no one has ever been able to explain
to me why its there, and since it doesn't exist, it can't be removed or deleted. Odd.
Quoting 63. nrtiwlnvragn:



This is what I see when I click on your UserID





Yes, I know it says that, but its not really there, its blank, don't know how it got there,
and can't remove it. Very strange. False positive.
Gronostication: I expect a new invest in the eastern Atlantic by this weekend. If you look at the MJO it would indicate that there could be very strong pressure falls in the Caribbean. Now, this would also be a nice setup for any systems to stay pretty much west since the ridge should be very strong in the Atlantic. Now, conditions are still all not all that favorable for development because of high shear and dry conditions. However, there could be very strong development of a system in the Caribbean. Now, where it ends up, I'll just keep you in suspense. But look to the eastern Gulf..
Who do I turn my comment card in to ?


My desk is as empty as Shaun's.


Power to da posters!


Quoting 64. GrandCaymanMed:

Models consistently underforecast shear in the MDR and with Karl. The wave coming off Africa: I don't expect that conditions will be favorable for development unless it makes it into the Western Caribbean. There it will have the best chance of development. What happens from there will also highly depend upon shear. In 2010 and 2011 which had much more favorable conditions basin-wide, both times hurricanes formed in the western Carribbean but were ripped apart by shear when they attempted to move out of the Caribbean, so I am also at this time highly skeptical that such a storm would impact the US. Looking back at the years with October Hurricanes in the Central or Western Caribbean, the rest of the basin and the seasons as a whole were much more active:
1998 with Mitch, rest of season was very active with high ACE
2001 with Michele, same story
2002 same story
2005 with Wilma, obviously much more active
2010/2011
2012 with Sandy

I cannot think of a single year where there was a hurricane in the Western Caribbean with the rest of the basin having these conditions. Do correct me though if I am wrong. For this reason I strongly bet against anything forming out of our future wave in the Western Caribbean. You can never say never in the tropics, but to me it does not look likely.

So in summary:
1. Too much shear in the MDR, system will have to wait for WCarib.
2. WCarib storms have almost never formed during October during seasons like this.
3. WCarib storms that do form would require shear to remain low north of it which is highly unlikely as troughs come down to avoid being ripped apart when they move out of the Caribbean.

So:
-MDR storm unlikey
-Caribbean storm unlikely
-Caribbean storm which forms and makes landfall in the US Very Unlikely

Disclaimer: I am not an expert and could be completely wrong.


Summary points 2 and 3 are incorrect.
Wow, only a lag of three hours. There really needs to be a backup Facebook group. Is there already such, or anyone volunteering to create, or shall I ?
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Gronostication: I expect a new invest in the eastern Atlantic by this weekend. If you look at the MJO it would indicate that there could be very strong pressure falls in the Caribbean. Now, this would also be a nice setup for any systems to stay pretty much west since the ridge should be very strong in the Atlantic. Now, conditions are still all not all that favorable for development because of high shear and dry conditions. However, there could be very strong development of a system in the Caribbean. Now, where it ends up, I'll just keep you in suspense. But look to the eastern Gulf..


Acckkk. Cough cough.
Thanks for the update Mr Henson. Here at my higher elevation abode in the mountains of San Diego County, yesterday's rainfall total of 1.07" has now risen to 1.40" with an additional .33 today in showers that started at 5am today. We have not had our usual 6-8 monsoon event storms this summer and the last couple days of rain are the first all summer...........is it still summer? Or do we change today? Anyway, thank you Paine! Twas a good soaking indeed! Just too bad it was not spread around more with other locales in Soo Cal.
Quoting 95. RTLSNK:



Yes, I know it says that, but its not really there, its blank, don't know how it got there,
and can't remove it. Very strange. False positive.


I think that is what is left when a user does a "remove entry", at least it does that for my blog page for blog entries I have removed. It still lists an entry for that month/year even though it is blank.


EPac Invests 94E and 95E trying to work their ways out of the ITCZ.
I have to wonder if the "blog holes" are because posted comments get put on a review list, and the staff person responsible can't be there 24/7 checking the comments and OKing them immediately, but is off on other responsibilities. So comments accumulate until that person can scan and OK them for posting. Perhaps due to some content that offended some important person (TAZ, have you been repoting people again?).
Quoting 62. Envoirment:



Doesn't drop it completely, it's weaker and slower at 192 hours. Unfortunately the vort is further south as well:




Yes, unfortunately.
If it hasn't already been said, I'm wondering if the servers for this blog are being plagued by dust and wind shear of late.
108. SLU
Latest GFS coming in much stronger and faster than the EURO and GGEM with the low rider

Quoting 98. Wunderwood:



Summary points 2 and 3 are incorrect.

My bad. I looked at the history and you are right.

Based on the models we should all watch the Caribbean next week.
Quoting 90. weathermanwannabe:

The fact that we have not had a major hurricane form between Africa and the Caribbean, and enter the Caribbean as a hurricane (which is related to the lucky streak for the US as well in terms of no majors since 2005), in over a decade now, is a truly remarkable statistic when compared to the frequency of Caribbean hurricanes that we used to see from time to time in the 30 years prior to 2005. If this trend continues for the next several seasons, some research will need to be done to try to find a connection between conditions in this sector of the Atlantic and climate change and/or drought issues as related to Africa or South America.........................Still a little early perhaps to jump to conclusions but this current climatology is very different from what we used to see in terms of wave to hurricane development between 10N and 20N on the way to the Caribbean.
The government is doing something out there !! Why is the pacific busy every year ?? Storm after storm, and a lot of major ones to ?????

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hw rf-p/2016092112/hwrf-p_shear_96W_43.png
Is the hwrf trying to predict a eye wall replacement cycle before a system forms!

This storm is huge! It has not even formed and I am already astonished!
Karl's tucked under the convection for the moment, quite an impressive burst:



Will be interesting to see whether it persists or if it wanes.
Quoting 108. SLU:

Latest GFS coming in much stronger and faster than the EURO and GGEM with the low rider



its way further north... could hook OTS after hitting the carribbean
Quoting 106. CaribBoy:



Yes, unfortunately.


You misspelled fortunately :)
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Gronostication: I expect a new invest in the eastern Atlantic by this weekend. If you look at the MJO it would indicate that there could be very strong pressure falls in the Caribbean. Now, this would also be a nice setup for any systems to stay pretty much west since the ridge should be very strong in the Atlantic. Now, conditions are still all not all that favorable for development because of high shear and dry conditions. However, there could be very strong development of a system in the Caribbean. Now, where it ends up, I'll just keep you in suspense. But look to the eastern Gulf..


The Grothar model has spoken! Will need to watch this very closely.
18z GFS. Well.....
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Gronostication: I expect a new invest in the eastern Atlantic by this weekend. If you look at the MJO it would indicate that there could be very strong pressure falls in the Caribbean. Now, this would also be a nice setup for any systems to stay pretty much west since the ridge should be very strong in the Atlantic. Now, conditions are still all not all that favorable for development because of high shear and dry conditions. However, there could be very strong development of a system in the Caribbean. Now, where it ends up, I'll just keep you in suspense. But look to the eastern Gulf..

I cannot keep up with your cryptic illuminati type posts anymore ;-)
I guess its safe to say, as usual that Texas is safe and will not experience any tropical systems the rest of the year !! Everything from now on is Florida bound !! 8 years and counting, since Ike, and the way this season is going, in the tropics, it could be another 10 years or more, before we see another storm. All this because of what I believe is our Government changing the weather, seeding storms, or True climate change...Jmo..
Quoting 99. elioe:

Wow, only a lag of three hours. There really needs to be a backup Facebook group. Is there already such, or anyone volunteering to create, or shall I ?

Do it!!
18z GFS show NW to NNW turn after the storm passed the Windwards. It was just a matter of time. July was 2 months ago folks...
Quoting 96. Grothar:

Gronostication: I expect a new invest in the eastern Atlantic by this weekend. If you look at the MJO it would indicate that there could be very strong pressure falls in the Caribbean. Now, this would also be a nice setup for any systems to stay pretty much west since the ridge should be very strong in the Atlantic. Now, conditions are still all not all that favorable for development because of high shear and dry conditions. However, there could be very strong development of a system in the Caribbean. Now, where it ends up, I'll just keep you in suspense. But look to the eastern Gulf..
hmmm when you mention 'eastern Gulf' you are referring to flowdeeeedah -yes?
No high to the North
Quoting 119. carla961:

I guess its safe to say, as usual that Texas is safe and will not experience any tropical systems the rest of the year !! Everything from now on is Florida bound !! 8 years and counting, since Ike, and the way this season is going, in the tropics, it could be another 10 years or more, before we see another storm. All this because of what I believe is our Government changing the weather, seeding storms, or True climate change...Jmo..


I REBUKE THAT IN THE NAME OF THE FL SHIELD!
The models agree on shear in the mdr and the carribean.
Gearts!!
The kind of track the GFS is showing could mean huge rains for the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, PR and E DR
Quoting 124. isothunder67:



I REBUKE THAT IN THE NAME OF THE FL SHIELD!


The ridge should keep florida out of play
Ridge, where are you?



Recurving. LOL
I have to admit that I loved this run.
Quoting 41. FreakingWearher:

I make a mistake with the region. I use Tropical Atlantic instead of North Atlantic. Regardless it was in the Tropical Atlantic before and know is poof.



In October !!! now thats funny !! Guess the models are wishcasting storms now, just to keep people on the Blogs !!! lol
Quoting 130. CaribBoy:



Recurving. LOL
As they will do every time from now on !!! lol
I won't be surprise if the GFS continues to trend E.
Quoting 124. isothunder67:



I REBUKE THAT IN THE NAME OF THE FL SHIELD!
lol ok !!!
136. ackee
The 18z GfS run never fails to entertain it always show something dramatic from the other runs let see if oz run of the GFS will fellow this new forecast
Quoting 116. Envoirment:



The Grothar model has spoken! Will need to watch this very closely.


I'm going to call it the GROWRF
The trend all season has been weak and West see Karl, Hermeine. Why would the GFS 18z run change that? I doubt it.
Blackout island, even withouth a hurricane ...
Massive Power Outage Reported In Puerto Rico
September 21, 20165:44 PM ET
A major power outage has been reported on the island of Puerto Rico.
In a statement, the island's power company, Autoridad de Energia Eléctrica, said the outage is affecting customers throughout the island.
The Puerto Rican paper El Nuevo Dia reports that 1.5 million customers are without power due to the "complete collapse of the system." The paper reports the outage was caused by a fire at a substation.
Puerto Rican firefighters later tweeted that the fire at the Aguirre power plant has been "controlled."
Quoting 3. JRRP:

HARP

Could that possibly be a Texas storm with the way the High is set up ?? Hmmm
Galactic fireworks illuminate monster hydrogen blob in space Name it Grothar!



WMO rules on longest distance and longest duration lightning flashes The lightning flash over Oklahoma in 2007 covered a horizontal distance of 321 kilometers (199.5 miles). The lightning event over southern France in 2012 lasted continuously for 7.74 seconds.

Scientists published climate research under fake names. Then they were caught.


Destination chosen.
Quoting 101. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update Mr Henson. Here at my higher elevation abode in the mountains of San Diego County, yesterday's rainfall total of 1.07" has now risen to 1.40" with an additional .33 today in showers that started at 5am today. We have not had our usual 6-8 monsoon event storms this summer and the last couple days of rain are the first all summer...........is it still summer? Or do we change today? Anyway, thank you Paine! Twas a good soaking indeed! Just too bad it was not spread around more with other locales in Soo Cal.


Thanks for hogging all the rain again Joe. Fall is on Thursday, September 22, 2016 at 7:21 AM PDT
Quoting 55. washingtonian115:

I know that in order to ignore a user,first I had to create a blog.I'm not sure if the rules have changed or not as that was years ago.


I never created a blog and I have a healthy ignore list...
Little collection of hot news ... :-(

Brazil's raging forest fires threaten indigenous land, uncontacted tribes
by Chris Arsenault, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Wednesday, 21 September 2016 17:12 GMT

Oil pipes threatened by forest fires amid disputes over the scale of destruction
By The Siberian Times reporter, 20 September 2016
Greenpeace claims up to 300 times more territory in Siberia is ablaze than officially acknowledged.



Indonesia dismisses study showing forest fire haze killed more than 100,000 people
Authorities from Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore have rejected recent research on the number of early deaths caused by last year’s fires
Associated Press, Wednesday 21 September 2016 10.55 BST

Soberanes Still Burns
NASA, Earth Observatory, September 21, 2016

Quoting 140. carla961:

Could that possibly be a Texas storm with the way the High is set up ?? Hmmm


18z, which I just posted, says it's not going anywhere near Texas.

Wave looks very strong as it is about to exit the coast. We just have to wait and see what transpires when it hits the water
Quoting 107. BayFog:

If it hasn't already been said, I'm wondering if the servers for this blog are being plagued by dust and wind shear of late.


I believe you are onto something BF. Its definitely shear......as in the sheer incompetence of those in charge!
Quoting 139. barbamz:

Blackout island, even withouth a hurricane ...
Massive Power Outage Reported In Puerto Rico
September 21, 20165:44 PM ET
A major power outage has been reported on the island of Puerto Rico.
In a statement, the island's power company, Autoridad de Energia Eléctrica, said the outage is affecting customers throughout the island.
The Puerto Rican paper El Nuevo Dia reports that 1.5 million customers are without power due to the "complete collapse of the system." The paper reports the outage was caused by a fire at a substation.
Puerto Rican firefighters later tweeted that the fire at the Aguirre power plant has been "controlled."



Yep. The whole island is shutdown. And you re right: even without a hurricane. Maintenance in the generation facilities is non existent

Even with a moderate tropical storm, we are going to have serious problems.
Deadly flooding in northeastern Turkey (Trabzon) and more flooding elsewhere in the Black Sea region today.

Two killed in flooding in Turkey's Black Sea region
Thursday,September 22 2016


Source.

Here some staggering youtubes from Turkey (out of many):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKIcynZfkxA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY4eMUsSo0c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoMfLyUwwug

BTW, this was done still by the same system which once (some days ago) has spawned that interesting subtropical swirl in the Bay of Biscay (Stephanie); it has moved east since.
151. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
The 3 largest hurricane ACE generators in satellite era for Atlantic basin started w/ "I" [Ivan (2004), Isabel (2003), Inez (1966)].
152. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 5h5 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
Since 1950, only 1963 generated as little Atlantic ACE as 2016 has thru 9/21 and ended up with above-average seasonal ACE by NOAA definition
Why has it been that for the most part, the Atlantic has failed to produce well-organized tropical cyclones over the past 4 years. Most of them tended to be struggling sheared messes: Erika, Karen, Colin, etc. but when you go to other basins in the globe you have impressive ones like Cyclone Winston, Hurricane Patricia, and of course Hayan, just to name a few. Even the Indian Ocean off Madagascar, Australia, and the Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal region have for the most part had tropical cyclones that have rarely been ugly messes of clouds. I am just dying to know what has been the problem in the Atlantic as opposed to all other basins worldwide??? Any thoughts on this??
154. JRRP7
155. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 10h10 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
The most Atlantic hurricanes on record to form after Sep. 20 was 6 - this has happened 4 times (1969, 1998, 2001 & 2010).
Well, when you think, you've seen all the sky might provide, you're just been proven wrong ...



'A-BOMB' SPRITE OVER THE CARIBBEAN: On Sept. 18th, Frankie Lucena of Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico, photographed an enormous sprite over the Caribbean Sea. For a split-second, the sky was illuminated by a mushroom-shaped flash. ...

Source spaceweather.com and more
Quoting 140. carla961:

Could that possibly be a Texas storm with the way the High is set up ?? Hmmm

Not likely unless that high retrogrades. More likely that if anything is in the gulf in October that it moves North or Northeast. That's typically the path storms take later in the season. But its wayyy to far out to say anything definitive. The wave hasn't even exited Africa.

Karl's environment continues to gradually improve as the upper low
moves westward, reducing vertical wind shear as well supporting a
more diffluent upper-level pattern for increased thunderstorm
development.
However, mid-level moisture values are marginal and
may remain as a limiting factor for intensification during the
next day or so.
Based on the latest intensity guidance, the
official forecast now brings Karl back to tropical storm strength
over the next day, with intensification continuing through day 4
after the cyclone recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies.
Some weakening is possible by the end of the forecast period after Karl's
transition to an extratropical cyclone.
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the west-central Caribbean.
Please refer to the section above for details. An elongated
upper- level low extends across the northern portion of the basin
enhancing convection across the Greater Antilles and adjacent
waters north of 18N. The Monsoon Trough extends across the south-
central Caribbean enhancing convection south of 15N between 75W-
84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across
the area except over the waters north of Colombia and Panama, where
fresh to strong winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours
for the elongated upper-level low to persist over the northern
waters. The tropical wave will continue moving west enhancing
convection.
161. SLU
Brenden Moses ‏@Cyclonebiskit 8h8 hours ago
#Karl has been suffering from a severe case of Atlantic-itis for the past week. Poorly modeled shear kept it in the 2016 style.

goodnight
Quoting 93. DogtownMex:



Yes! that did it for me too. All I did was click on Create Blog and I got the ignore list option to appear.
Now when I hit ignore user I get the list with the name in the number 1 position but when I hit update ignore list it just reloads the list with out the name??? Maybe I just need to wait for the system to update my info....
got too double down do it twice like ya really mean it sort of second thoughts auto style

lol
Greenland ice loss 40 trillion pounds bigger than thought
September 21, 2016 by Seth Borenstein

With those news good night from Germany. We've got another week of "Indian summer", although the nights are already cool. Next weeks real autumn weather might set in (models were still undecided the last days). I hope for some more rain, especially for our northeast which is in quite a drought ...
Quoting 153. lobdelse81:

Why has it been that for the most part, the Atlantic has failed to produce well-organized tropical cyclones over the past 4 years. Most of them tended to be struggling sheared messes: Erika, Karen, Colin, etc. but when you go to other basins in the globe you have impressive ones like Cyclone Winston, Hurricane Patricia, and of course Hayan, just to name a few. Even the Indian Ocean off Madagascar, Australia, and the Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal region have for the most part had tropical cyclones that have rarely been ugly messes of clouds. I am just dying to know what has been the problem in the Atlantic as opposed to all other basins worldwide??? Any thoughts on this??

Too much "energy" trying to mix out / moderate earths temps. In this naturally warming world, aided by mankinds Carbon input, there are other naturally occurring mechanisms(edit) besides Hurricanes, taking a large roll in spreading out the heat.
There are so many earth mechanisms that we do not fully understand and thus can not model. Hopefully we are taking note and learning, not just lumping it all into presumptive preconceived notions.
Quoting 200. no1der:

An Open Letter Regarding Climate Change From Concerned Members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences

Human-caused climate change is not a belief, a hoax, or a conspiracy. It is a physical reality. Fossil fuels powered the Industrial Revolution. But the burning of oil, coal, and gas also caused most of the historical increase in atmospheric levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. This increase in greenhouse gases is changing Earth's climate.

Our fingerprints on the climate system are visible everywhere. They are seen in warming of the oceans, the land surface, and the lower atmosphere. They are identifiable in sea level rise, altered rainfall patterns, retreat of Arctic sea ice, ocean acidification, and many other aspects of the climate system. Human-caused climate change is not something far removed from our day-to-day experience, affecting only the remote Arctic. It is present here and now, in our own country, in our own states, and in our own communities.

During the Presidential primary campaign, claims were made that the Earth is not warming, or that warming is due to purely natural causes outside of human control. Such claims are inconsistent with reality.

Others argued that no action is warranted until we have absolute certainty about human impacts on climate. Absolute certainty is unattainable. We are certain beyond a reasonable doubt, however, that the problem of human-caused climate change is real, serious, and immediate, and that this problem poses significant risks: to our ability to thrive and build a better future, to national security, to human health and food production, and to the interconnected web of living systems.

The basic science of how greenhouse gases trap heat is clear, and has been for over a century. Ultimately, the strength of that basic science brought the governments of the world to Paris in December 2015. They went to Paris despite pronounced differences in systems of government, in national self-interest, in culpability for past emissions of greenhouse gases, and in vulnerability to future climate change. The leaders of over 190 countries recognized that the problem of human-caused climate change is a danger to present and future citizens of our planet. They made national commitments to address this problem. It was a small but historic and vital first step towards more enlightened stewardship of Earth's climate system.

From studies of changes in temperature and sea level over the last million years, we know that the climate system has tipping points. Our proximity to these tipping points is uncertain. We know, however, that rapid warming of the planet increases the risk of crossing climatic points of no return, possibly setting in motion large-scale ocean circulation changes, the loss of major ice sheets, and species extinctions. The climatic consequences of exceeding such thresholds are not confined to the next one or two electoral cycles. They have lifetimes of many thousands of years.

The political system also has tipping points. Thus it is of great concern that the Republican nominee for President has advocated U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Accord. A "Parexit" would send a clear signal to the rest of the world: "The United States does not care about the global problem of human-caused climate change. You are on your own." Such a decision would make it far more difficult to develop effective global strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The consequences of opting out of the global community would be severe and long-lasting - for our planet's climate and for the international credibility of the United States.

The United States can and must be a major player in developing innovative solutions to the problem of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. Nations that find innovative ways of decarbonizing energy systems and sequestering CO2 will be the economic leaders of the 21st century. Walking away from Paris makes it less likely that the U.S. will have a global leadership role, politically, economically, or morally. We cannot afford to cross that tipping point.


Welcome to the Anthropocene

🌎🌊🌉🌛🌃
Frederieke Saeijs performs The Four Seasons (Autumn) by Antonio Vivaldi with The Netherlands Symphony Orchestra.

Could be the last Cape Verde disturbance of the year shown passing over the Windward Islands. This has been a season in the Atlantic of missed expectations so I would not count on this one being different. One sign that the Atlantic was never going to get going is the fact the East Pacific is still going.
Quoting 153. lobdelse81:

Why has it been that for the most part, the Atlantic has failed to produce well-organized tropical cyclones over the past 4 years. Most of them tended to be struggling sheared messes: Erika, Karen, Colin, etc. but when you go to other basins in the globe you have impressive ones like Cyclone Winston, Hurricane Patricia, and of course Hayan, just to name a few. Even the Indian Ocean off Madagascar, Australia, and the Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal region have for the most part had tropical cyclones that have rarely been ugly messes of clouds. I am just dying to know what has been the problem in the Atlantic as opposed to all other basins worldwide??? Any thoughts on this??
Due to some kind of cycle.
Quoting 152. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 5h5 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
Since 1950, only 1963 generated as little Atlantic ACE as 2016 has thru 9/21 and ended up with above-average seasonal ACE by NOAA definition

It might be worth noting that 1963 had the later season, low riding, and long duration Hurricane Flora. If you want to get a late season jump of ACE, that's how it is done.

In just 5 days, from a seedling to Cat 3 on the doorstep.
When you put in just the right search on google to cause a warp in the system.


175. SLU
Quoting 172. 1900hurricane:


It might be worth noting that 1963 had the later season, low riding, and long duration Hurricane Flora. If you want to get a late season jump of ACE, that's how it is done.




Flora was a very deadly storm in a season that was lackluster before mid-September
It's nice to have the GFS and ECMWF unanimous with the Caribbean scenario for once; timeframe hasn't been capricious, either. We're entering into the realm of believability here, and I'm going to start mentioning it in my forecasts if we're still seeing this by Saturday.
I give WU...10 face palms out of 10.Seriously this thing has broken down everyday now.WTF?
Quoting 170. unknowncomic:

Could be the last Cape Verde disturbance of the year shown passing over the Windward Islands. This has been a season in the Atlantic of missed expectations so I would not count on this one being different. One sign that the Atlantic was never going to get going is the fact the East Pacific is still going.



Yeah, the east Pacific has been active for several years. imo that's a pretty telling sign of a -AMO. People need to stop overanalyzing and look at what is obvious.
1900hurricane, this hurricane even later in 1963 also helped gin up ACE. Might trigger some interest in the blog too if a track like that happened today.

Quoting 161. SLU:

Brenden Moses ‏@Cyclonebiskit 8h8 hours ago
#Karl has been suffering from a severe case of Atlantic-itis for the past week. Poorly modeled shear kept it in the 2016 style.


Oh hey, I know him. Brenden used to post in Cody's group, and we were friends for awhile. He's not wrong. :)
Quoting 166. Patrap:




Just a few counterpoints from my perspective. Take it for what it is worth.
The constant change in our climate is not strictly human caused.
All the human fingerprints adding or aiding the natural changes in our climate are not the Main driver. They are an accelerating factor.
One can point out the extreme proclamations on either side from this crop of political /potential policy directors, but for the most part the level heads that are lumped in as deniers are stating that we should not kill the goose that laid the golden egg. That translates to ok the climate is changing. It always has. Humans are making it happen even faster. But at this point we need to be careful with the decisions we make. We are in a changing climate that has consequences that are costly. Do we jump off the cliff and damage the Capitalistic funding that will be needed to fund research and recovery with little regard to how and who pays for such innovation and response? That would be a very bad cliff to jump off in such blind ambition of expedience.
Yes we understand the basic concept of greenhouse gasses and the fact that we humans are dumping a crud load into the atmosphere. But we do not even come close to understanding how Earth reacts to such changes.
And again the international acords are a good discussion but all too many of the mandates are all too damaging and unenforceable at all too high a cost.
Free Capitalistic societies that are the funding mechanisms of the world can not afford to be ham-stringed and pushed closer to financial insolvency and still be expected to pay for the research and recovery that will be needed.
Be very careful how you bite your golden goose. There is a middle ground and the individual citizen must focus more on the companies and the citizens power of the purse as opposed to the lazy way of relying on governance and the use of other people moneys.
That is the beauty of a free capitalistic society.
We consumers have way more and BETTER power for a desired outcome than relying on an over extended governance, that only wants to keep power and influence for their own enrichment, as opposed to listening to the people and making best use of their hard earned taxes. We can spend money from other peoples taxes via an out of control governance or we can cut out the Government and direct our efforts and monies at the corporations that empower our governance. JMO
Test test test... Is WU down for the count again?
took a 3 hr nap has the blog where down come back 3hrs later and gust what blogs are back too being down am too a point too where i dont want too blog here any more giveing that they can get up from there lazy butt and fix what ever the issue is this is getting vary old every 2 too 3 hrs the blog go down
I will probably die of old age before another nice looking hurricane forms in the Atlantic.
Quoting 177. washingtonian115:

I give WU...10 face palms out of 10.Seriously this thing has broken down everyday now.WTF?


seems like is broken down every 2 too 3hrs now am to a point that i dont want too blog here any more in tell they can fix the issue


this think what will happen in a weak or two if we have a major hurricane comeing
Quoting 186. scott39:

I will probably die of old age before another nice looking hurricane forms in the Atlantic.


Gaston was pretty stellar. You gotta admit.
People (even climate scientists - apologies, Dr. Masters) fail to understand the magnitude of the changes that have occurred in the climate system. Every so often, I'm just amazed by a new nugget of information I learn. Like this one from Lansing, Michigan. Notice the mean annual low temp was 27.9F in 1868, and it really wasn't an outlier. The remaining years in the 1860s and 1870s were generally clustered between 29 and 33F. Nor was it a particularly cold year. The limited records existing prior to this time period show the 1840s and 1850s were even colder (particularly 1843 and 1854-56). Look at the records from the Signal Corps in St. Louis in March 1843 - mean temp. of 25.3F, more than 5 degrees colder than anything ever recorded in the modern era. Look at the records from Ft. Snelling, Detroit Arsenal, or Ft. Gratiot. I post the image below just to point out how much it has warmed already! Not even considering what's still to come. That 27.9F reading is colder than anything recorded at Duluth International Airport (ICAO: KDLH) since 1996. Hundreds of miles to the north and at an elevation of 1,427 feet, to boot! Lansing, for comparison, is 860'. It's just astounding - climate zones have shifted hundreds of miles, and there are still people denying global warming is even a real thing. I've posted numerous times how patchy frosts used to occur every few years in the 1890s and early 1900s in Ohio in the month of July - or else the farmers were lying... Now it doesn't even drop below 50 in September. And the record lows are in the 20s and 30s. There was a freeze in August as recently as 1982!

Quoting 177. washingtonian115:

I give WU...10 face palms out of 10.Seriously this thing has broken down everyday now.WTF?

It has become one of the internets best "rollercoasters" Only now the lift hill keeps getting stuck.... One day.... One day the cart shall become uncogged and run back into the station at full force. In that alternate reality many would die and the park would either have to replace the lift for the hill inside and out or build a new coaster.

Now that is an odd comparison but I think with a little color you see.
Quoting 181. QueensWreath:



Just a few counterpoints from my perspective. Take it for what it is worth.
The constant change in our climate is not strictly human caused.
All the human fingerprints adding or aiding the natural changes in our climate are not the Main driver. They are an accelerating factor.
One can point out the extreme proclamations on either side from this crop of political /potential policy directors, but for the most part the level heads that are lumped in as deniers are stating that we should not kill the goose that laid the golden egg. That translates to ok the climate is changing. It always has. Humans are making it happen even faster. But at this point we need to be careful with the decisions we make. We are in a changing climate that has consequences that are costly. Do we jump off the cliff and damage the Capitalistic funding that will be needed to fund research and recovery with little regard to how and who pays for such innovation and response? That would be a very bad cliff to jump off in such blind ambition of expedience.
Yes we understand the basic concept of greenhouse gasses and the fact that we humans are dumping a crud load into the atmosphere. But we do not even come close to understanding how Earth reacts to such changes.
And again the international acords are a good discussion but all too many of the mandates are all too damaging and unenforceable at all too high a cost.
Free Capitalistic societies that are the funding mechanisms of the world can not afford to be ham-stringed and pushed closer to financial insolvency and still be expected to pay for the research and recovery that will be needed.
Be very careful how you bite your golden goose. There is a middle ground and the individual citizen must focus more on the companies and the citizens power of the purse as opposed to the lazy way of relying on governance and the use of other people moneys.
That is the beauty of a free capitalistic society.
We consumers have way more and BETTER power for a desired outcome than relying on an over extended governance, that only wants to keep power and influence for their own enrichment, as opposed to listening to the people and making best use of their hard earned taxes. We can spend money from other peoples taxes via an out of control governance or we can cut out the Government and direct our efforts and monies at the corporations that empower our governance. JMO



Strongly disagree. Climate change is 100% manmade. The changes we have set into motion are enormous and irreversible. At this point, there is nothing we can do. The IPCC is a bunch of hand-wringing, feel good nonsense. Carbon taxes, whatever. None of that will change a thing. Geoengineering is a bunch of hocus-pocus. Even if it could be accomplished on the scale necessary to prevent catastrophic warming, does anybody ever stop to think of the unintended consequences? Like blotting out the sun - our only source of energy on the planet? Or seeding the oceans with iron? What a bunch of hogwash. A quick way to turn the oceans into carbonic acid. Tl;dr: it's too late to stop catastrophic warming. But everybody deludes themselves. Whether it's outright denial of the problem, or with a misguided belief that something can be done to it. No, nothing can be done. At 400ppm, we have recreated the Pliocene (maybe Miocene?). But we're heading upwards of 800-1000 ppm, if civilization even lasts that long (but with methane releases, maybe it will get that high anyways at least on a CO2e basis). That means PETM.
What better time to fix bugs than when the ATL post no threats and none in the immediate horizon.
Calm winds, moisture from Karl, and daytime heating allowed near stationary very heavy local showers this afternoon. Considering the small size of the island, that's impressive :)
Quoting 186. scott39:

I will probably die of old age before another nice looking hurricane forms in the Atlantic.
no but maybe fright when one does
Quoting 188. LostTomorrows:



Gaston was pretty stellar. You gotta admit.

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 192. ClimateChange:



Strongly disagree. Climate change is 100% manmade. The changes we have set into motion are enormous and irreversible. At this point, there is nothing we can do. The IPCC is a bunch of hand-wringing, feel good nonsense. Carbon taxes, whatever. None of that will change a thing. Geoengineering is a bunch of hocus-pocus. Even if it could be accomplished on the scale necessary to prevent catastrophic warming, does anybody ever stop to think of the unintended consequences? Like blotting out the sun - our only source of energy on the planet? Or seeding the oceans with iron? What a bunch of hogwash. A quick way to turn the oceans into carbonic acid. Tl;dr: it's too late to stop catastrophic warming. But everybody deludes themselves. Whether it's outright denial of the problem, or with a misguided belief that something can be done to it. No, nothing can be done. At 400ppm, we have recreated the Pliocene (maybe Miocene?). But we're heading upwards of 800-1000 ppm, if civilization even lasts that long (but with methane releases, maybe it will get that high anyways at least on a CO2e basis). That means PETM.


Thanks for the heart felt response. I actually think that you and I could agree on more points than you have considered. Your post seems to be heavily pessimistic. In my post I was attempting to state how we can work with the changes to come if we only consider what is actually funding our society and how we can balance our challenges ahead of us and be able to afford them.
Quoting 191. George1938:


It has become one of the internets best "rollercoasters" Only now the lift hill keeps getting stuck.... One day.... One day the cart shall become uncogged and run back into the station at full force. In that alternate reality many would die and the park would either have to replace the lift for the hill inside and out or build a new coaster.

Now that is an odd comparison but I think with a little color you see.




we need the big storm the biggest yet too come in the atlantic an eye opener into the new realm
Quoting 153. lobdelse81:

Why has it been that for the most part, the Atlantic has failed to produce well-organized tropical cyclones over the past 4 years. Most of them tended to be struggling sheared messes: Erika, Karen, Colin, etc. but when you go to other basins in the globe you have impressive ones like Cyclone Winston, Hurricane Patricia, and of course Hayan, just to name a few. Even the Indian Ocean off Madagascar, Australia, and the Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal region have for the most part had tropical cyclones that have rarely been ugly messes of clouds. I am just dying to know what has been the problem in the Atlantic as opposed to all other basins worldwide??? Any thoughts on this??


For long-term, I think it's warming temps. The Pacific is a giant battery, and as WeberWeather described in beautiful detail several weeks ago, has less variation in overlaying atmospheric conditions like the Atlantic. There's no desert on earth like the Sahara near an ocean where prevailing winds from that direction can dominate an entire basin in the Pacific.
Fiddle sticks! The blog ate my Elaine STELLA comment -_____- I am so full of myself that I like to look at my own posts before leaving. With that off to bed.

But in seriousness, I am sure they are working harder than we think on this problem. This place is clearly extremely important to The Doc and Bob. They have always responded to comments about errors in typing and The Doc even conducted his own delay post test a few weeks back. I'm sure they will figure it out. That or when the big one does come the blog will blow and well meh.
Quoting 192. ClimateChange:



Strongly disagree. Climate change is 100% manmade. The changes we have set into motion are enormous and irreversible. At this point, there is nothing we can do. The IPCC is a bunch of hand-wringing, feel good nonsense. Carbon taxes, whatever. None of that will change a thing. Geoengineering is a bunch of hocus-pocus. Even if it could be accomplished on the scale necessary to prevent catastrophic warming, does anybody ever stop to think of the unintended consequences? Like blotting out the sun - our only source of energy on the planet? Or seeding the oceans with iron? What a bunch of hogwash. A quick way to turn the oceans into carbonic acid. Tl;dr: it's too late to stop catastrophic warming. But everybody deludes themselves. Whether it's outright denial of the problem, or with a misguided belief that something can be done to it. No, nothing can be done. At 400ppm, we have recreated the Pliocene (maybe Miocene?). But we're heading upwards of 800-1000 ppm, if civilization even lasts that long (but with methane releases, maybe it will get that high anyways at least on a CO2e basis). That means PETM.


Something can be done and we as the populace of this planet need to start relying on ourselves and our capacity for self driven change NOT external Government reliance. How many time must I repeat the actual meaning of POWER TO THE PEOPLE! These United States of America was and can still be the best construct for innovation and the best beacon for the people directing civilization. NOT the Reliance on Government to take care of things for us. What is a more powerful force for change? An overburdened governance? A populace reliant on a bankrupt post Constitutional directive? OR A populace that understands how powerful its freedom is as a collective power.
Quoting 181. QueensWreath:



Just a few counterpoints from my perspective.


Incorrect facts and opinion aren't really so much counterpoints. You need to provide some evidence for such broad and sweeping assertions that fly in the face of established research in the hard sciences as well as your commentary that reaches into economics and other social sciences. I get it though, strict adherence to laissez-faire ideology is a predictor of climate change denial.
Quoting 169. BaltimoreBrian:

Frederieke Saeijs performs The Four Seasons (Autumn) by Antonio Vivaldi with The Netherlands Symphony Orchestra.




many plusses.
very stuck
WU 7-Day Riverside Municipal Airport

Hope this is the last heatwave of the year.
ClimateChange - the earth's climate is a hugely complex and dynamic equilibrium coupled to numerous cycles each with positive and negative feedbacks. In such a system nothing is irreversible.
Quoting 188. LostTomorrows:



Gaston was pretty stellar. You gotta admit.


Yeah for like four hours.
Quoting 190. CaribBoy:





I'd rather a track into the Gulf, sorry. Aside from being so long ago that I'm almost getting amnesia, I need a major hurricane there to meet my seasonal predictions; I said back in July that I thought we'd get one there.
Quoting 203. Naga5000:



Incorrect facts and opinion aren't really so much counterpoints. You need to provide some evidence for such broad and sweeping assertions that fly in the face of established research in the hard sciences as well as your commentary that reaches into economics and other social sciences. I get it though, strict adherence to laissez-faire ideology is a predictor of climate change denial.


Thanks Naga.
But I clearly stated where I was coming from and how the reader should ingest my words. EDIT: No need to be redundant.
00z is disappointing.
Quoting 206. PedleyCA:

WU 7-Day Riverside Municipal Airport

Hope this is the last heatwave of the year.
At least it gets cool at night. We have to deal with near 100% humidity and dew points in the 70s at night during the summer in Florida, and sometimes near the coast temperatures stay in the 80s making it feel muggy.
Quoting 212. GTstormChaserCaleb:

At least it gets cool at night. We have to deal with near 100% humidity and dew points in the 70s at night during the summer in Florida, and sometimes near the coast temperatures stay in the 80s.


Good to see the blog has recovered yet again...
00z finally not so disappointing. Shifted E.
215. JRRP7
Quoting 211. CaribBoy:

00z is disappointing.

really ?
Quoting 215. JRRP7:


really ?


Well, not really :)

Quoting 215. JRRP7:


really ?


if the GFS dos not show any thing hitting him he will be disappointed but that dos not mean he can runin the fun for every one else that like too track storms on the GFS in the long run


the GFS tonight has a TS N of PR



at 240hrs
218. JRRP7
that system near 45w hmm...
and moves it out too sea

220. THL3
Quoting 207. snowboy:

ClimateChange - the earth's climate is a hugely complex and dynamic equilibrium coupled to numerous cycles each with positive and negative feedbacks. In such a system nothing is irreversible.


^^This^^
grrr this is really getting old how many times a day do we have too put up with the blog hole stuff
222. ackee
Cmc showing 1 hurricane 2 Td and several lows lol as for the GFS it now see a NE track for the future system. Base on how poorly the model did with karl intensity forecast I am going wait until this wave track across the Atlantic See what happens
this blog is really haveing issue today this is the most blog holes i seen in a long time


Good old CMC...
out too sea this run

Quoting 214. CaribBoy:

00z finally not so disappointing. Shifted E Where is the potential system headed?
Weak Low between Karl and Lisa will bring additional rains to the Leewards in a few days :)



We had an interesting storm last night. Highest "gust" was 90 mph, far below what was forecasted which is fine with me. Didn't lose power, but a lot of people from Homer to Fairbanks did. That's like saying a storm knocked out power from Miami almost to Atlanta to put that into perspective.

One thing that is different for me, from growing up in South Florida , is that FALL means lots of leaves on the ground. The wind really helped them fall off the tree. Although it was easier to move a mountain of leaves out from in front of the garage door than if it was snow....

I see that the Atlantic is quiet for the moment.


WASHINGTON — A government report released Wednesday said climate change is likely to pose a significant national security challenge for the U.S. over the next two decades by heightening social and political tensions, threatening the stability of some countries and increasing risks to human health.
In conjunction with the report, President Barack Obama signed a presidential memorandum that orders federal agencies to account for climate change's impacts when developing national security policy.
The White House said there is an increasing need for collaboration among scientists and the intelligence and national security communities. Obama's memorandum establishes a working group to help in that effort and directs federal agencies to develop plans to deal with an array of potential scenarios resulting from climate change.
While the memorandum applies to the current administration, officials said they anticipated that future administrations would incorporate some of its requirements.
"The impacts of climate change on national security are only going to grow," said Dr. John Holdren, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Six of the 17 hottest months on record have been the summer months of 2015 and 2016. The report said that over the next five years, the security risks for the U.S. linked to climate change will arise primarily from extreme weather events and water shortages. Over the next 20 years, broader systemic changes such as rising sea levels could threaten small island states and low-lying coastal regions.
"Over 20 years, the next effects of climate change on the patterns of global human movement and statelessness could be dramatic, perhaps unprecedented," said the report, which comes from the office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Quoting 160. Chicklit:

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the west-central Caribbean.
Please refer to the section above for details. An elongated
upper- level low extends across the northern portion of the basin
enhancing convection across the Greater Antilles and adjacent
waters north of 18N. The Monsoon Trough extends across the south-
central Caribbean enhancing convection south of 15N between 75W-
84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across
the area except over the waters north of Colombia and Panama, where
fresh to strong winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours
for the elongated upper-level low to persist over the northern
waters. The tropical wave will continue moving west enhancing
convection.

Quoting 178. KoritheMan:



Yeah, the east Pacific has been active for several years. imo that's a pretty telling sign of a -AMO. People need to stop overanalyzing and look at what is obvious.
And if you compare all the basins globally, it's very obvious where all the moisture/convection is located-in the WPac
232. vis0

Quoting 177. washingtonian115:

I give WU...10 face palms out of 10.Seriously this thing has broken down everyday now.WTF?
Paddycake, Paddycake, wxPlan man,
Make me a invest as fast as you can;
Roll it, pat it, mark it with a F(ish),
Put it in the oven for bahahurricane and me.

P
addycake Paddycake Paddycake- Paddycake x10

will ya paaahhhleeeease stop missing hands and hitting me in da face

On the serious side, WxU did very well with almost several TS "near by" in early mid summer ,but 'bout ~20+ days ago its no longer the Sunday Black hole (as sar2401 called it) but now its every other day 3-4 times a day.

Still think it has to do with that Russian/Chinese hackers (maybe not a top guy/gal but a novice trying to impress** his/her superiors)  where too busy with the Olympics, once Olympics ends 1-2 days later WxU began to act up.

**maybe an entire blog should only have me and TWI  that it no one else and watch the hackers pull the patch chords and krazy glue their eyelids.


Which one will win: trough or ridge? Caribbean Cruiser or Not Caribbean Cruiser? To be or not to be?
It took almost to 2am EST for the posts from 12:41 EST to come up.
Hey Taz, we all know there is an issue. We are aware! OK?
Splash down and SAL free in front of it. Now watch it not develop for some reason.



There is some windshear out in front of it of about 20-25 knots, which would hinder development in the short term.

Quoting 146. pureet1948:



18z, which I just posted, says it's not going anywhere near Texas.


Theres nothing even in the gulf on this map ????
Quoting 192. ClimateChange:



Strongly disagree. Climate change is 100% manmade. The changes we have set into motion are enormous and irreversible. At this point, there is nothing we can do. The IPCC is a bunch of hand-wringing, feel good nonsense. Carbon taxes, whatever. None of that will change a thing. Geoengineering is a bunch of hocus-pocus. Even if it could be accomplished on the scale necessary to prevent catastrophic warming, does anybody ever stop to think of the unintended consequences? Like blotting out the sun - our only source of energy on the planet? Or seeding the oceans with iron? What a bunch of hogwash. A quick way to turn the oceans into carbonic acid. Tl;dr: it's too late to stop catastrophic warming. But everybody deludes themselves. Whether it's outright denial of the problem, or with a misguided belief that something can be done to it. No, nothing can be done. At 400ppm, we have recreated the Pliocene (maybe Miocene?). But we're heading upwards of 800-1000 ppm, if civilization even lasts that long (but with methane releases, maybe it will get that high anyways at least on a CO2e basis). That means PETM.
How long do we have left?
I love how the EURO and GFS as of the 00Z runs are completely different. This is my favorite part of tracking and the worst. So if I were to make a dramatic long term prediction (because I "clearly" know better than the NHC cough cough -just for fun-) Becomes a depression east or southeast of Barbados tracks west possibly hugging the South American coast. As a 60-70mph Tropical Storm Mathew feels a trough to the north. Similar to Hazel of 1954 it will change coarse rather abruptly and accelerate north. Likely weaker than the other mentioned storm Florida to Nova Scotia would be in the way of a zig zagish path.

If this happens I will eat a gallon of ice cream, mark meh words lol
-test-
240. ackee
So the GFS high shifting position continue I think this system will not be as strong approaching the eastern carribbean if it weaker I say further west but if it stronger then The Gfs track will be in play also the GFs weaken the ridge very quickly very interesting tracking ahead the euro hints a weaker system heading west
241. JRRP7



this run is not OTS
Quoting 207. snowboy:

ClimateChange - the earth's climate is a hugely complex and dynamic equilibrium coupled to numerous cycles each with positive and negative feedbacks. In such a system nothing is irreversible.


It's irreversible over any time scale meaningful to human life. And it very well could be permanently irreversible. Have you ever heard of Venus Syndrome? It's the ultimate fate of any planet containing a lot of liquid water. And unfortunately there are no magical negative feedbacks that will save us. The vast majority of feedback loops in the climate system are positive.
Quoting 237. Kenfa03:

How long do we have left?


Can't say for sure. There could be a major food shock at any time, even as soon as next year. Or it could be decades away. There's really no way to know for certain. That's what makes abrupt climate change so frightening.
good morning karl is finally taking off. decent surfing storm. p 39 future. now not so likely to be a carib. tracker.
245. beell
.
246. beell
At the tail end of a strong cold front in the BOC next Tuesday. If anything, would probably be sub-tropical. GFS moves this towards the Texas coast.

Quoting 243. ClimateChange:



Can't say for sure. There could be a major food shock at any time, even as soon as next year. Or it could be decades away. There's really no way to know for certain. That's what makes abrupt climate change so frightening.


Yes.
A small food shock already happened and was the main trigger of the 'Arab Spring'. It was caused by a combination of inferno summers in the US corn belt, Ukraine and Russia plus the huge, rice destroying floods of Thailand and Pakistan all in the years 2009-11. Global food reserves by 2012 were lowest in 40 years.
Quoting 237. Kenfa03:

How long do we have left?

About a generation.
No more.
day one of the genesis of Mathew. To be or not to be is the question.
250. beell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
450 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

..will likely keep a slight lean on grids toward the ECMWF as this latest GFS run seems very fantastic. (i.e. The development of a surface low in the western Gulf along the stalled frontal boundary next week is not the favored solution at this time tbh.)...


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
635 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...Previous guidance runs had all swept a front through the CWA Monday and returned sunshine and drier conditions to the region by mid week. Now...both the 00z GFS and ECMWF want to dig the trough far south into TX by late in the weekend...but the ECMWF now wants to cut off an upper level low over NW Old MX and stalls a front across S TX. GFS clears the coast of the front...stalls it...develops a tropical low along it and meanders the low around the Lower Texas Coast. None of the guidance tonight is appealing...

...first half of next work week may result in South Texas experiencing the coolest temps since May...
Quoting 249. stoormfury:

day one of the genesis of Mathew. To be or not to be is the question.
Where will it go ?
blog machine is getting old and feeble. good luck to all bloggers. if early forecast happens north america will be shivering this winter.
Good Morning Folks; the Global Tropics.
Combined image of all basins
On the issue of climate change, the whole globe is interconnected climate-wise and changes in one region, or heat buildup, is going to cause changes in other regions. If you think that this is not the case, then just look at one example in terms of the Enso cycle and the teleconnections and observed inverse relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific Basin tropical storms; now imagine what other teleconnections exist when the Arctic has been warming at the rate of about 12 degrees over the last 20 years. It is just way the world is "wired" together in terms of the global ecosystem and we are just starting to figure out some of these connections with more to come in the future.

On a related side note, which has not been mentioned on here in a few months, that "cold pool" off the coast of Greenland that was so pervasive for the the past several years in the North Atlantic has pretty much dissipated over the past several months. The assumption was that this was the result of glacial melt....................Well, the glaciers are still retreating but now we have to ask as to where the cold pool has gone and what is happening beneath the ocean or Greenland that cause this abrupt warm-up? I do not have the answer but will note from the August 2016 anomaly chart below that while the cold pool is gone, now we are seeing very anomalous warming in the waters right on the Coast of Greenland adjacent to the glaciers:





Quoting 252. islander101010:

blog machine is getting old and feeble. good luck to all bloggers. if early forecast happens north america will be shivering this winter.


Yes, me too! My comments from last night never got posted at all, and my "plusses" wouldn't take either!
Will also note from the August 2016 chart below that the waters off the US Eastern Seaboard, which includes the Gulf Stream, are currently showing record warmest SSTs; whether that has any relationship to the cold pool effect off of Greenland for the past few years or whether the cold pool has "sunk down" and impacted the flow of the AMO, and causing a warm water build-up to the South, has been the subject of a few research papers as well.

Quoting 210. QueensWreath:



Thanks Naga.
But I clearly stated where I was coming from and how the reader should ingest my words. EDIT: No need to be redundant.


I take it that you require anarchy from all your fellow citizens, since governments are worthless.
when will future matthew get yellow crayon its off the coast now.


china, looking rather smoggy at 420 pm today. (420 am EST) god, i love the himawari-8. but this is a scary, scary picture. the result of a billion plus population, communism, and everyone elses love for cheap stuff (and a bunch more things, i know its very complex). one of those pictures that cant help but bring out the hopelessness in me.

on the other hand i saw these elongated mammatus recently...and theyre pretty enough to distract me from hopelessnes :)



That wave coming off of Africa is the textbook definition of a "low rider"..........Have to give at least 36 hours to see if it can self-sustain convection once it clears the Cabo Verde Islands and starts to gain coreolis as it starts approaching 10N.  This is probably the last gasp of the CV part of the season.  It will either gain latitude and develop into a TD perhaps downstream or stay weak, and low,  and crash into South America as a wave as some of the models suggested a few days ago.



Quote "You gotta admit gaston was pretty stellar"
Quoting 208. KoritheMan:



Yeah for like four hours.


Even the beauty of a perfect rose only lasts about four hours.
Quoting 257. markot:

when will future matthew get yellow crayon its off the coast now.


Appears NHC started tracking this morning:

GENESIS024, AL, L, , , , , 79, 2016, DB, O, 2016092212, 9999999999, , 024, , , , GENESIS, , AL792016

2016 09 2212 YYYY/MM/DDHH
Quoting 257. markot:

when will future matthew get yellow crayon its off the coast now.


If/when the NHC determines it is necessary.
cv season not over look at Africa more behind future matthew.,,
I've noted from looking at the models, the future system has a good chance at making it to the USA as a pretty potent storm at that. It could very well get trapped under a developing ridge, something you usually see further west in the USA for October. You see typically, we have a very strong ridge in the the USA that recurves storms from the Atlantic out to sea, and storms that are in the Caribbean, to the southeast, then out to sea. This is a different scenario where the high is further east and anything that forms, gets trapped under it and moves west. This also increases favorable conditions. Could be something to watch here in the next week or so guys.
(Taps microphone) Is this thing on/working?
266. JRRP

Here we go...It's the tail end of this front that's supposed to give us the cut-off low in the Gulf next week. We shall see.

Quoting 235. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Splash down and SAL free in front of it. Now watch it not develop for some reason.



There is some windshear out in front of it of about 20-25 knots, which would hinder development in the short term.




There's a lot of red on that map.
Hmmm...Karl's RGB floater isn't updating for some reason.
Quoting 253. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks; the Global Tropics.
Combined image of all basins
On a related side note, which has not been mentioned on here in a few months, that "cold pool" off the coast of Greenland that was so pervasive for the the past several years in the North Atlantic has pretty much dissipated over the past several months. The assumption was that this was the result of glacial melt....................Well, the glaciers are still retreating but now we have to ask as to where the cold pool has gone and what is happening beneath the ocean or Greenland that cause this abrupt warm-up?

Check out monthly maps for a number of recent years, you will find the cool pool all but disappeared every year arount this time of year - that is, note this, in air temp anomalies. Don't worry, the pool persists. And it shows on SST-anomaly maps, too. E.g. Link
By the Emperor.

Ground control to Major Tom!
276. JRRP
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
For the first time in over 1 year, our atmospheric enso index, AEI, is shifting into negative territory.
When was the last time a storm was supposed to strengthen to a hurricane but instead weakened to a TD in the middle of SEPTEMBER no less? This season was another shear/dry air/elnino like season. Lame
The blog servers are slower than the season lol
Quoting 229. Dakster:

We had an interesting storm last night. Highest "gust" was 90 mph, far below what was forecasted which is fine with me. Didn't lose power, but a lot of people from Homer to Fairbanks did. That's like saying a storm knocked out power from Miami almost to Atlanta to put that into perspective.

One thing that is different for me, from growing up in South Florida , is that FALL means lots of leaves on the ground. The wind really helped them fall off the tree. Although it was easier to move a mountain of leaves out from in front of the garage door than if it was snow....

I see that the Atlantic is quiet for the moment.


Raking season in the Mid Atlantic is mid to late November. If a fall garden is near trees, it has to be kept clear of leaves or the smaller plants will be silently covered and smothered. Something I don't have to worry about the rest of the growing season.

That's if Fall ever ever comes this year :-( (fast forward.. yes it will]
Quoting 203. Naga5000:



Incorrect facts and opinion aren't really so much counterpoints. You need to provide some evidence for such broad and sweeping assertions that fly in the face of established research in the hard sciences as well as your commentary that reaches into economics and other social sciences. I get it though, strict adherence to laissez-faire ideology is a predictor of climate change denial.



Climate change due to greenhouse gas emission is a classic example of what is called an externality in economics. Third parties not involved in an economic transaction are affected by it. Markets have NO capability.. zero, to price in externalities and they create what economists call market failure. Climate change and pollution are examples of negative externalities which fail to be sufficiently damped because there is no market signal to do so. Education and new business formation create examples of positive externalities, benefits of education are not confined to the educated group and new business formation in a neighborhood does not just benefit customers and owners, it benefit otheres in the neighborhood.

No one has come up with any way to provide a market signal to mitigate externalites. Forces outside the market are required. The basic problem has been known for 150 years (but after Adam Smith where laisezz faire proponents like to stop)
.
As mentioned in previous posts it's a lack luster season which is evident. We may have the numbers just but none of it has been impressive. The only reason we even have these numbers is because we have satellites to identify these systems way out there. I have been jumped on here before about it but it was even mentioned on weather underground tv the other night that it's barely been a season and one wonders if this is the new norm. I can say it's been obvious for those of us that live in the Caribbean that things are changing.
Testing this morning's blogs delays....

Dr. M.
Fish?

Quoting 259. weathermanwannabe:

That wave coming off of Africa is the textbook definition of a "low rider"..........Have to give at least 36 hours to see if it can self-sustain convection once it clears the Cabo Verde Islands and starts to gain coreolis as it starts approaching 10N.  This is probably the last gasp of the CV part of the season.  It will either gain latitude and develop into a TD perhaps downstream or stay weak, and low,  and crash into South America as a wave as some of the models suggested a few days ago.




Quoting 195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no but maybe fright when one does


Living in DC metro and looking at the 06Z GFS, I have two weeks left!
there is no dust with new disturbance and not much shear ahead.
Are there any other good weather blogs that actually work?
Its going to be interesting to watch what happens with the front coming off the Texas Coast late in the weekend. Models have been all over the place with it. Very little consistency run to run. It is not unusual for early season storms to spin up, and GFS is trying to spin up a tropical low off the Texas coast during the last run. It will be interesting to see if this becomes a trend or not. Hurry up and wait....
OMG the blog is down again ...
DR MASTERS
This is your blog, no? Many of us have been loyal for a long time and would just like to know whats going on with the comment section here. The only way it could be disabled is if you do it, because I'm assuming its still your blog. It goes down frequently and sporadically all the time now. What gives Dr Masters?
Depending upon whose estimates you believe, Monday may or may not have marked the birth of the 7 billionth human living on earth. The US Census Bureau estimates that the 7 billionth resident of earth will not be born until March of 2012. Either way, this is a remarkable population expansion in a short period of time.

The world’s population has grown exponentially in the last 100 years, but the rate of growth has declined drastically in recent decades and is expected to continue decreasing through the middle of the 21st century. The world’s population first surpassed 1 billion people in the early 1800’s and 2 billion people around 1930. In less than 30 years, the world population topped 3 billion (1959). It took less than 15 years to exceed 4 billion people (1974), 13 years to reach 5 billion (1987), 12 years to reach 6 billion (1999) and 12 to 13 years to top 7 billion (2011 or 2012). However, current projections estimate that it will take at least 14 years to reach 8 billion people (somewhere around 2025 or 2026) and 16 more years to reach 9 billion people (in 2041 or 2042).

The charts below are based on US Census Bureau and UN population estimates
http://blog.dssresearch.com/?p=229

Even with WW1 WW2 and many other wars our PLANETS population has exploded. No so much the US but still we have had a large increase.

At this rate the UN and US Military are making plans on how to deal with climate change, less food, and more people. That my friends sounds like a recipe for a disaster of global proportions. I wont be here to see it but my kids and grandkids might unless we look at all the causes and the very difficult problem of convincing EVERYONE (countries) to work together. Me thinks that wont happen until the stugh hits the fan for real.
Quoting 264. reedzone:

I've noted from looking at the models, the future system has a good chance at making it to the USA as a pretty potent storm at that. It could very well get trapped under a developing ridge, something you usually see further west in the USA for October. You see typically, we have a very strong ridge in the the USA that recurves storms from the Atlantic out to sea, and storms that are in the Caribbean, to the southeast, then out to sea. This is a different scenario where the high is further east and anything that forms, gets trapped under it and moves west. This also increases favorable conditions. Could be something to watch here in the next week or so guys.
yes something is different this year,look how long Judy got trapped by the Carolina's.
Was hoping Karl would split the uprights between Cape Fear and Bermuda. Would have gone from decent to great.

Me and the boy will grab some this weekend. I think Saturday will be the better/bigger day SC/SE NC. The boy will be out Sunday as I am easing him into it. Don't want him to take donuts until he gets the bug. Although last weekend he was laughing in the Nags Head brown shorepound...reminiscent of some 2-3' Sandy Beach. Red Flag but the guards let us get a few.

Quoting 244. islander101010:

good morning karl is finally taking off. decent surfing storm. p 39 future. now not so likely to be a carib. tracker.
when is this blog GONNA BE FIXED3333

Quoting 272. cRRKampen:


Check out monthly maps for a number of recent years, you will find the cool pool all but disappeared every year arount this time of year - that is, note this, in air temp anomalies. Don't worry, the pool persists. And it shows on SST-anomaly maps, too. E.g. Link
Thanks; it does show on that map and interesting as to the correlation as to air temps affecting some of the readings.  Have also read about some research going on taking temp measurements underwater at depth to try to figure out what is going there as well.
Quoting 285. 19N81W:

Fish?




Too soon to tell; Reedzone noted below that the current ridging pattern might keep it moving West if it does develop downstream in the Central Atlantic, Here the pattern per GFS 180 hours out:
[JavaScript Image Player]



Quoting 283. 19N81W:

As mentioned in previous posts it's a lack luster season which is evident. We may have the numbers just but none of it has been impressive. The only reason we even have these numbers is because we have satellites to identify these systems way out there. I have been jumped on here before about it but it was even mentioned on weather underground tv the other night that it's barely been a season and one wonders if this is the new norm. I can say it's been obvious for those of us that live in the Caribbean that things are changing.


The tropics go through multi-decade cycles of above and below average hurricane seasons and we currently in a lull cycle.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
And the wave exiting Africa already trying to get that "shrimp" look: albeit a "little" shrimp at this early stage in the game.........................






Quoting 276. JRRP:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
For the first time in over 1 year, our atmospheric enso index, AEI, is shifting into negative territory.


What does that mean again?
Family vacation is October 5th at the Bahamas. How likely is this storm?



Quoting 295. LargoFl:


test
Thunder storms developing over Ft. Lauderdale and Miami.

Quoting 288. VAbeachhurricanes:

Are there any other good weather blogs that actually work?

Let's see we can help this one.
Loss of a good commenting section of a blog is always huge and takes years to recover, with 'old times' never coming back.