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Karen struggling; Lorenzo sets a new intensification record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:42 PM GMT on September 29, 2007

Tropical Depression Karen has weakened to a tropical depression, thanks to ferociously high wind shear levels exceeding 50 knots. Satellite loops show Karen's exposed low-level center of circulation, visible as a swirl of low clouds. Karen continues to generate new heavy thunderstorm activity, but these cells immediately get pushed several hundred miles east of the center by strong upper level winds from the west. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed Karen.

Wind shear is expected to remain above 30 knots over Karen through Sunday, then decline to 15 knots by Sunday night. Although the storm has shown an unusual ability to maintain a strong wind pattern in the face of high wind shear, it is uncertain if Karen can survive past today. The GFS and ECMWF models predict the shear will destroy Karen. I put Karen's survival chances at about 25%.

If Karen survives, an upper level environment favorable for strengthening is expected to set up 3-5 days from now, and Karen would probably become a hurricane. Steering currents may become weak during that period, and Karen may move very slowly. By the middle of next week, I expect a ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic, forcing Karen westward towards the U.S. The path Karen might take late next week is highly uncertain. Most of the models continue to predict the formation of a new tropical or subtropical cyclone somewhere between the coast of North Carolina and the Western Caribbean on Monday. Some of the models take this new storm northeastward out to sea, which would pull Karen northward in its wake. However, most of the models predict that the new storm will take a more westerly path into Georgia or Florida, or possibly the Gulf of Mexico. A storm-storm interaction between Karen and the new storm might ensue, an event the models are poor at handling.


Figure 1. This morning's visible satellite image with wind shear contours overlaid show a very unhealthy tropical depression. Wind shear of 50 knots is over the low-level circulation center of Karen, thanks to strong upper-level winds from the west (denoted by the big white arrow at the plot's bottom). These high winds have pushed all of Karen's heavy thunderstorm activity several hundred miles downwind of the center. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Lorenzo sets another rapid intensification record for 2007
Hurricane Lorenzo hit Mexico's Veracruz coast near Tuxpan early Friday morning. The storm's heavy rains have triggered mudslides blamed for at least four deaths. Lorenzo has tied the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane--twelve hours. Hurricane Blanche of 1969 was the only other storm on record that intensified from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane in just 12 hours. Hurricane Ethel of 1960 may have done so faster, though. Ethel strengthened from a 45-mph tropical storm to a 85 mph Category 1 hurricane in just 6 hours. We don't know when Ethel started as a tropical depression, since this was before the satellite era.

Reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available. Since 1970, Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this will get rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Since 1970, Hurricane Felix of 2007 holds the record for fastest intensification from the first advisory to a Category 5 hurricane. It took Felix just 54 hours to accomplish the feat. Hurricane Camille of 1969 also took 54 hours to do so, but the first advisory put Camille as a 60 mph tropical storm. It is likely that Camille would have been classified as a tropical depression earlier had reliable satellite imagery been available.

Is it a statistical fluke that we've had three record-speed intensifying hurricanes this year? It could be. Our reliable data records only go back to 1970, and there may have been periods in the past with similar events. No scientist has published a paper linking rapid hurricane intensification rates with global warming. However, three record-speed intensifying hurricanes in one season certainly raises questions, and is very odd.

Melissa
Tropical Storm Melissa formed this morning, far out in the eastern Atlantic. The storm is under about 10-20 knots of wind shear. Melissa will probably not affect land, since it is starting out too far north and will gain additional latitude in the coming days. The storm's expected track will take it northwest towards a region of high wind shear early next week, which should destroy the storm.

I'll have an update Sunday by noon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. IKE
06 UTC GFS run through 384 hours. The cold fronts are starting to head east to the east coast in about a week....

Link
1503. IKE
CIMSS shear map...shear still 20 knots over the remains of Karen....shear is under 20 knots north of eastern Cuba.....

Link
1504. IKE
From JAX,FL....

"Short term...have used the GFS guidance almost exclusively for
this package as NAM appears to have convective feedback issues
which rapidly develop deep low over S Florida. This is a cold core
development in the NAM and appears to occur around the same time
as massive flare up of Omega over the S 1/2 of the Florida Peninsula.
As a result...have discounted this model and surrounding offices
appear to be doing the same.
As a result...little change to short
term forecast with isolated to possible low end scattered mainly coastal
showers through the period."
Good morning! I see that TS Melissa has strengthened and reweakened... Could Melissa be a fish storm?
1506. icmoore
So the weather situation for FL associated with a possible building low has improved? What about our friend Karen? Dead or alive? Thank you and Good Morning!
1507. IKE
I think if Karen even makes a comeback, which I wouldn't completely rule out, it will not make it as far west as the east coast of the USA.
Morning everybody,

Looks like lots of people are sleeping late this morning. I'm enjoying an early breakfast of coffee, avocado pear and grits, and wunderblogging . . .

Just took a look at former Karen on AVN and water vapor, and it looks like there's some spin again under that area near 15/16N, 54W. Is anybody else observing this, or is this just the action of the Tstorms growing back which looks like rotation?

1509. IKE
I don't see any circulation with Karen...I'll keep looking.

And good morning.
Good morning Baha - is it raining yet?

Good morning Ike
1511. IKE
From this mornings Houston,TX extended discussion...

"Things get more interesting toward the end of the week. An area of
disturbed weather will develop over the eastern Gulf and move
west. Global models diverge in their respective solutions but
there should be an increase in moisture by Friday with a good
chance of rain on Saturday. The upper low will approach Texas
coincident with an approaching upper level trough. The upper
trough will phase with the upper low as it pushes east. This
allows a cold front to cross the area. If the long range models
are correct...this will be the first significant cold front of the
season.
The GFS has teased US before with regard to a cold frontal
passage but there is some colder air beginning to build in Canada
and other long range models support the GFS solution. Whether or
not the front crosses the area...the position of the upper low and
tropical moisture should produce a good chance of rain next Sat
and sun."

If the models are correct, some chilly air heading into the SE US in about 8-9 days....that'll put a dent in any tropical development along the northern GOM.
Anybody else notice that the comments are being deleted after a week or so.
Is this new? Or am I noticing the difference because I started delving into the archives during an unusual period in which there were no deletions?
This is a cold core
development in the NAM and appears to occur around the same time
as massive flare up of Omega over the S 1/2 of the Florida Peninsula.


What 'massive flare up of Omega' mean?
It's not raining at all. Not in Nassau, anyway. I suspect some of the more southerly islands got a goodly dose overnight, though.
Morning Ike,
Are you the NWS Discussion source today or something?
What's this about deleted comments? The blog AFAIK is searchable by blogger name and everything.

Hmmmm . . .
Bobby, I think most of us expected Melissa to be a fish storm. Most CV systems are this time of year, and there isn't anything unusual about conditions to suggest Melissa might be different.
Pouring here - big thunderstorms through out the night, its still dark from all the clouds.

Not many winds though.
1519. icmoore
A small cold front must have gone thru FL. This morning it is 66.2 degrees. But then again maybe that chill is because the Gator nation is in mourning. LOL Cat
It's a nice breezy and cool morning here in East Central Florida...it's blowing my hurricane fears right out the window!
1521. IKE
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 6:33 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
Morning Ike,
Are you the NWS Discussion source today or something?


I just like reading and posting what the different areas say...like Randrewl use to do.
1522. IKE
Posted By: icmoore at 6:39 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
A small cold front must have gone thru FL. This morning it is 66.2 degrees. But then again maybe that chill is because the Gator nation is in mourning. LOL Cat


I watched that game...the announcer(I forget his name), on ESPN...when the first half ended said..."there's a scattering of boo's among the fans". How can fans boo a team that brought them a national championship last year and at that time, was still undefeated in 2007?

And the Gator fans they showed after the winning FG, that were crying....over a football game. A GAME!
there's a Gale developing of eastern U.S,this Gale must altleast have winds of 80 kts
ANd i see melissa weakening,she'll never make it
The GEM 240 hr forecast:



Notice the low off the SE coast, which has appeared on a lot of runs now. The DGEX also picks this up, too. And, what's that thing on the right side of the screen? Is that a hurricane headed towards the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast? Could it be...Karen????

Just some more proof that something will develop off the SE coast or in the Gulf, or both. And another model picking up on Karen's regeneration. I really don't buy the forecast of a hurricane hitting Hilton Head (I think the low will form farther south and go in the Gulf) but the situation for Karen is possible. In fact, the GEM is showing almost the exact same forecast as the ECMWF was showing yesterday. Bottom line - Karen is not done yet. Keep an eye on it.
1526. IKE
Notice the low off the SE coast, which has appeared on a lot of runs now. The DGEX also picks this up, too. And, what's that thing on the right side of the screen? Is that a hurricane headed towards the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast? Could it be...Karen????

The trough/cold front that will be heading east and off of the SE US coast in 10 days...on that map, would force Karen north and out to the north Atlantic graveyard.
Good Morning All...

Visible satellite imagery showed a broad area of low pressure associated with disorganize showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas. It also shows strong southwesterlies over the system and evidence of a frontal boundary (indicated by surface wind direction, cloud patterns and surface temperature) which indicate the system is is still non-tropical in nature.

Shear is forecasted to lift out in 48 hrs time and the GFS is suggesting a rather strong high pressure system will build over Atlantic Canada/NE US and the NW Atlantic which would block anything from going out to sea and steer it westward towards land. The next expected extra topical low will break down the high in about 72 hrs time but until/if that occurs...west is my thinking.
Good morning! 64 degrees here in savannah - coldest it's been for a LONG time. Woo hoooo!

How's things? Karen's a goner?

Melissa
1529. IKE
Got down to 61.7 here this morning in Defuniak Springs,FL..with dew points in the low to mid 50's. It is nice out!
ACE now about 60.7

I just found out that 1989's Hurricane Felix (Cat4) had the same central pressure as this year's Hurricane Felix (Cat5)- 929 mb.
just checked on the models again and looks like the CMC has been smoking crack all this year - now there is a storm that is going to hit near us according to them this week. Why are they so aggressive with stuff?
1532. mit5000
any news on tropical disturbance karen?
1533. 21N71W
Morning All,
No rain in Nassau Bahahurican??? It has been pouring here ( Turks and Caicos) with incredible thunderstorms /wind and lighting last night . This morning cool and dark , still raining! pure bliss
oooo...21n...i LOVE turks & caicos - went there last year around this time - i've never seen water that blue. I don't know if i would actually be able to hold down a JOB if i lived there - I would be too tempted to go snorkeling every day...
From the 8:00 am .Tropical Weather Discussion


THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF KAREN IS E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N53W AND CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
E OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 50W-55W.
Latest 24 hour surface forecast

SF
Morning all and happy Sunday to everyone. Beautiful day here in Cayman, clear skies and calm seas. Still think Karen is breathing even though it looks like she is on life support.
Its Sunday night here in Sydney Australia. we have a 16mph warm WNW gusting to 26mph, clear sky, minimum tonight will be 48.So what happened to Karen. Did the high shear get to her or has whe gone undercover. Will the shear do the same to Melissa??
Cheers
1539. icmoore
Wow Ike 61.7. It sounds like the temps all around FL have fallen. Sorry had to step away husband has a sick headache..Yea the fans are something. Gotta love em. I am a fan but not a FANatic.
8:05AM Discussion....

THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF KAREN...ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



FORECASTER RHOM
Rainy and VERY WINDY here winds at 30mph sustained!! according to WPTV.com..my local news
BahaHurican "What's this about deleted comments? The blog AFAIK is searchable by blogger name and everything."

I just checked your name and mine. Search doesn't work at all for me inregard to finding the comments following Dr.Masters' older blogs.

And while changing the number between entrynum= and &tstamp in http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=811&tstamp=200709
leads to Dr.Master's eg blog775, it's followed by "No comments have been posted for this blog entry."
And I know that I've checked that blog-number (as well as other numbers I've tested) and have received accompanying comments in the recent past.
UK/NGP develope Karen into a cyclone once again...We'll see.
i see thst melissa is already dissipating
Morning All
Just checking on Karen and anything else that may have cropped up.
Clear and cool here in Destin. Gorgeous morning. Good day to get some yard work done. Have a great day everyone

Go Noles!

Oh and WAR EAGLE :D
Wow Ike 61.7. It sounds like the temps all around FL have fallen. Sorry had to step away husband has a sick headache..Yea the fans are something. Gotta love em. I am a fan but not a FANatic.


Yeah, it's nice out. A cold front has scraped all the way down to miami overnight. Fat lady is not singing but she's warming up for the end of the 2007 hurricane season as far US landfall threats. Big shear entering the GOM in 72 hours.
It's so cold here in Florida cause dem Auburn Tigers came in town!!!...lol
Hey Destin..I just stepped outside and wow it is nice here in FWB!
Okay, did I just get banned for mentioning deletions?
Edit in:
Nope. Apparently there just isn't the normal volume of posting.
morning
never say dead unless burial takes place. Beware Karen is on the comeback trail.
off to work will continue there
adios
1551. Drakoen
Good morning everyone. I see Karen is still "alive". New area to watch of the southeast coast.
when is Karen supposed to get out of the high shear again?
Looks like Karen is still alive...wouldnt be surprised if she made a comeback...also I see the NHC mentioned an area of disturbed weather off the SE coast
1554. Drakoen
Looks pretty disorganized at this point.
thanks SW!
Morning Storm and everyone!

Hey Storm - what's the deal with the models doing the organization on the east coast and swinging it this way? Is that really possible?
SW - I thought you were taking today off? I'm trying to learn how to read the shear maps - from what I looked at if the remnants of Karen can get to about 60, it may stand a good chance of doing something again. Is this right?
Morning all :~)

Looks like it is a beautiful morning all across the SE!

What a crazy day in college football yesterday. Glad the Gamecocks managed to stay out of the upset fiesta!
The one shear forecast I looked at shows that shear will drop to about moderate levels in 24 hours or so, then continue to become a little more favorable
Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:26 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

Morning all :~)

Looks like it is a beautiful morning all across the SE!

What a crazy day in college football yesterday. Glad the Gamecocks managed to stay out of the upset fiesta!


Good Morning SJ..it's a beautiful day here in the panhadle of Florida...I can hear the cryin commin from the pennisula...teehee..WAr EAgle
the Navy has Melissa at 30kts/1007mb
(as we all tug on Storm's shirt...lol)...

Thanks Storm - I always think the CMC is smokin crack.

Morning SJ!
Anyone have a link to a model that shows the low forming in the Eastern GOM.
Local forecaster continues to mention the low that will end up in the Easter GOM.
this is the model (the UKMET) that forecasts something to develop in the Eastern gomex....it has been consistant for a couple runs

image
1571. IKE
Melissa looks ready to be downgraded....EX-Karen looks better then Melissa.
1572. hahaguy
ike thats pretty sad if ex karen looks better than melissa lol
Morning SW, mel 236, and Ike :~)
Well of course Melissa looks bad...she is getting sheared, which small cyclones dont handle well, and she is probably starting to enter cooler waters
Good morning SJ
1576. Drakoen
Ex Karen is under 20kts of shear. Melissa is under 30-40kts of shear.
1577. BigToe
Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:26 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

Morning all :~)

Looks like it is a beautiful morning all across the SE!

What a crazy day in college football yesterday. Glad the Gamecocks managed to stay out of the upset fiesta!

SJ....Did not know you were a gamecock...BIG game thurs night. GO Cocks!!!!!!!!
1578. ttexino
OMG, I turned 60 sometime last night! Doesn't seem possible. I'm just a lad!

A northeaster has set in here in NE Florida (how apropos) and that always seems to give us a bit of localized excitement when it happens before Thanksgiving. Best wishes to everyone and hope your predictions are spot on.

TT
1579. Drakoen
Karen
Oh yeah BT! The 'Ol Ball Coach is bringing us around for the first time in years :~)

Was really worried yesterday when Corey went down. Sort of thinking about trying to make the Kentucky game, but kind of doubt I will go. May try to make the next Saturday game though.

Always hate playing Kentucky. It is usually one of those games we are supposed to win, but we play too close. Now that Kentucky is on the up and up it make me a little nervous!

Happy B-day ttex :~)

1581. eye
Karen isnt even a TD, how can she be "alive"? Just another area of disturbed weather....also, even if she does come back from the dead, if that blob develops off the E coast, there is the weakness for her to go out to sea.
I really didn't care for the 'ol ball coach when he was at Florida..but now..I respect him..he is really doin a good job up your way SJ
1583. Drakoen
UKMET on Karen.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 54.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122007

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 30.09.2007 16.8N 54.7W WEAK

12UTC 30.09.2007 18.9N 55.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.10.2007 19.4N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.10.2007 20.1N 58.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.10.2007 20.8N 59.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.10.2007 21.2N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.10.2007 21.3N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.10.2007 21.2N 61.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.10.2007 21.6N 61.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.10.2007 22.3N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.10.2007 22.3N 61.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.10.2007 22.3N 62.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.10.2007 22.0N 62.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

1584. BigToe
SJ.... Live in Ballentine...Just had 2 ticks drop in my lap. I'll yell for you.
wait is Karen still a TD?...or a remnant low?
1586. eye
In Master's blog, he says the shear will go down Sunday night and be 15kts come Monday. No way the leftovers can take 2 more whole days of shear, Ingrid had a circulation 2 days after it was declared dead, but the shear did not give up in time and it was too weak.

It doesnt look like the leftovers will ever had ideal shear conditions
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 1:48 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

wait is Karen still a TD?...or a remnant low?


Remnant low
Posted By: eye at 1:50 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

In Master's blog, he says the shear will go down Sunday night and be 15kts come Monday. No way they leftovers can take 2 more whole days of shear, Ingrid had a circulation 2 days after it was declared dead, but the shear did not give up in time and it was too weak.


Why couldnt the leftovers take lower shear today? The shear isnt 50kts over the system now, which is why the convection has reflared....the shear only gets lower, so I dont see why it cant remain
Once again, Ingrid had different conditions, the shear did not drop until she completely dissapated, Karen is still here as the shear should slowly drop
SW ATlantic

Visible satellite imagery, convergence and vorticity charts showed a broad area of low pressure associated with disorganize showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas. It also shows strong southwesterlies over the system and evidence of a frontal boundary (indicated by surface wind direction, cloud patterns and surface temperature) which indicate the system is is still non-tropical in nature.

Shear is forecasted to lift out in 48 hrs time and the GFS is suggesting a rather strong high pressure system will build over Atlantic Canada/NE US and the NW Atlantic which would block anything from going out to sea and steer it westward towards land. The next expected extra topical low will break down the high in about 72 hrs time but until/if that occurs...west is my thinking.
Well its 11:55pm here in Sydney and the wind is getting much stronger. our B.O.M has just issued a severe wind warning For Damaging Winds, Winds are averaging over 65 km/h(40mph). Peak wind gusts are expected to exceed 90km/h(56mph). The Big tall tree's out the front of my house are really bending over with the 90km/h(56mph) gusts. Normally when we have strong wind during the day it dies down at night, I think its due to a front moving through. Cheers
The big blob of Karen in the NE sector there looks like a spin is starting to occur if you look at satelite real close..NOT Wishcasting......lol
Karen has a 50/50 chance of developing again or dissipating. Shear is now down to 20 knots and only forecast to get lower as our upper trough is splitting right in her path. There is alot of convergence and vorticity with her. I will not give up on her until all of her thunderstorms are gone and vorticity and convergence becomes non-existent.
And if you look at the shear tendency map, you can see much of the high shear with the trof weakening across the CATL
Posted By: ttexino at 9:41 AM AST on September 30, 2007.

OMG, I turned 60 sometime last night! Doesn't seem possible. I'm just a lad!


if it is your Birthday for real, ttexino, well Happy Birthday to you!
1596. Drakoen
Posted By: Weather456 at 1:58 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Karen has a 50/50 chance of developing again or dissipating. Shear is now down to 20 knots and only forecast to get lower as our upper trough is splitting right in her path. There is alot of convergence and vorticity with her. I will not give up on her until all of her thunderstorms are gone and vorticity and convergence becomes non-exist.


I agree. Theres alot left with her Remanats.

Good Sunday Morning everyone!
I see everyone is checking in this morning.

Here in SE FLA my yard has received over 2" of rain since last night. Been raining hard this morning; hubby out trying to get his run in even in the rain.

Has anyone decided what this little wave over SE Fla is going to do?

Gams
Wow - lotsa company here - I turned 45 yesterday - does that mean I can have an "official" mid-life crisis now???

Nice here today - good thing too - parish picnic today...
I don't think we have seen the real bitchy Karen yet..lol
1600. IKE
That UKMET model run on Karen...moves her just under 60 miles west from the 5th to the 6th of October(from 61.8W to 62.7W),...by the 8th of October a front should be moving near or off of the east coast of the US...unless the models change, which is possible, but not likely. That would steer Karen out-to-sea.

To make a long story short...a fish storm.
I see on the visable sat a nice spin east of florida. Does That have a chance?
Thanks BT! One more favor, don't leave until the end :~) I think that one bothers Steve and the boys!

I am curious as to what part of Karen's remnants are moving NW? Does not exactly look NW...
1603. IKE
Here in SE FLA my yard has received over 2" of rain since last night. Been raining hard this morning; hubby out trying to get his run in even in the rain.

I got my run in too....pushing a lawn mower up and down the hills of my back yard. BOY...that was fun!
1604. Drakoen
Anything can happen Ike. Its just Remnants. I see the UKMET building high pressure to the north of the system.
the visable sat pics are now showing a developing spin just east of the SE Florida coast...this may be the low that is forecast to develop and move west thru So Fl or Fl Straits so nothing by the S Fl reporting stations other than gusty NE winds
Recon update:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 25.0N 84.0W AT 02/1800Z
1607. mit5000
i think karen is back


look shes gaining organisation!

500

thts a tropical storm @ least!
1608. IKE
Posted By: matilda101 at 9:08 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
the visable sat pics are now showing a developing spin just east of the SE Florida coast...this may be the low that is forecast to develop and move west thru So Fl or Fl Straits so nothing by the S Fl reporting stations other than gusty NE winds


There's 30 knots of shear there...lower shear is to the north and may drop south when the high finishes building in.
1609. jpritch
My eyes may be deceiving me, but it looks like there could be a broad, elongated surface circulation roughly stretched between the big blob and the little wisps to its WNW.
Morning gamma - lots of rain here, but very little wind. Strange given all the charts etc showing the gradient.
1611. IKE
thts a tropical storm @ least!

You're kidding, right?

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 25.0N 84.0W AT 02/1800Z


That's west of the Keys....on Tuesday.

I can't see a system making it all the way to Texas/Mexico in October. We'll see what happens.
This is where i detect the spin on visible satellite imagery....Just of the SE coast of the FL peninsula. However, the spin is difficult to pick up on radar loops.

1614. mit5000
Posted By: IKE at 2:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

thts a tropical storm @ least!

You're kidding, right?

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 25.0N 84.0W AT 02/1800Z

That's west of the Keys....on Tuesday.

I can't see a system making it all the way to Texas/Mexico in October. We'll see what happens.


i was talking about ex karen!
1615. Drakoen
LesterNessman just because you do not agree with something does not mean you have to condescend. You can have your own opinion without doing that.
Adrian was right, this blog has changed.
1617. eye
Lester, there are alot of just turned teenagers on this blog, it takes them months to save $100.
Posted By: LesterNessman at 2:15 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 2:01 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
"Posted By: Weather456 at 1:58 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Karen has a 50/50 chance of developing again or dissipating"

You folks may be weather experts but you are NOT very good oddsmakers. 50/50? That's a JOKE. More like 95/5 she won't in my book.

Like I said yesterday, I will wager ANYBODY here $100 even money that the storm Formerly Known As Karen will never make it back to TS strength.

Haven't seem any takers yet, but then again my life does not revolve around this blog, so maybe I missed somebody.


A remnant low remains and shear will be favorable...why is there only a 5% cahnce for regeneration? sounds like your not good at odds either LOL
1619. IKE
Posted By: LesterNessman at 9:15 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:01 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
"Posted By: Weather456 at 1:58 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Karen has a 50/50 chance of developing again or dissipating"

You folks may be weather experts but you are NOT very good oddsmakers. 50/50? That's a JOKE. More like 95/5 she won't in my book.

Like I said yesterday, I will wager ANYBODY here $100 even money that the storm Formerly Known As Karen will never make it back to TS strength.

Haven't seem any takers yet, but then again my life does not revolve around this blog, so maybe I missed somebody.


The blog must mean something to you or you wouldn't be throwing out $100 bets. If I was rich, I'd take you up on that bet...but I'm not and I won't.

I'd give her about a 50/50 chance of making it back to a TS...appears to be a spin to the convection.
Morning all.

Ex-Karen looks a bit more organized on imagery, could she be trying to regenerate?

Also I think we'll see our next invest today out of the Bahamas system although I don't see a clear circulation on radar.
1621. Drakoen
weather456 i don't see anything at the surface yet. The cimss 500mb vorticity shows the spin of the SE coast but looking at the 700-850mb there is no vorticty maximum.
1622. IKE
i was talking about ex karen!

I know you were talking about Karen...and you said she was "at least a TS"....she isn't...yet.
456 - I looked at the visible and I think you are right, ever so slightly, between miami & the bahamas, a little south.

BTW - I finally put Nessman on ignore - its much easier that way. His statements are disrespectful to others.
1625. Drakoen
Posted By: TerraNova at 2:17 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Morning all.

Ex-Karen looks a bit more organized on imagery, could she be trying to regenerate?

Also I think we'll see our next invest today out of the Bahamas system although I don't see a clear circulation on radar.


yea me either. I think there is a weak mid level rotation to the east of Miami. Nothing at the surface yet.
Drak...I was referring to a spin on visible imagery just off the SE coast of FL...I didnt say anything is at the surface.
please don't repost those comments - it ruins the ignore effect..
25.0N 84.0W is where the 06Z GFS indicates development.

Link
1630. Drakoen
Posted By: Weather456 at 2:20 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Drak...I was referring to a spin on visible imagery just off the SE coast of FL...I didnt say anything is at the surface.


yea i know. I was talking about that as well.
1631. IKE
Posted By: zoomiami at 9:20 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
please don't repost those comments - it ruins the ignore effect..


LOL. You're right...it does. I've had that problem too with the ones I've got on ignore.
Ike

That makes sense!

We didn't have that much rain at Ft Laud Beach but it there was heavy thunderstorms thru out the night just to the west about 1-2 miles inland.
1633. mit5000
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:19 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

Posted By: TerraNova at 2:17 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Morning all.

Ex-Karen looks a bit more organized on imagery, could she be trying to regenerate?

Also I think we'll see our next invest today out of the Bahamas system although I don't see a clear circulation on radar.

yea me either. I think there is a weak mid level rotation to the east of Miami. Nothing at the surface yet.


tropical depression karen will be back.......... soon

noel is just off the bahamas and is in a similar place to katrina!

will he be a katrina!
....
456 - what do you thing about the remnants? Is it getting better organized?
1638. eye
HAHAHA

jp, egos dont work well here? there are SO MANY ALPHA MALES(wannabes) on this blog....LMAO...
1640. Drakoen
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:24 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
looking at the shear a big drop in it occured directly over the remnants of the system;

could an anticyclone be forming over the remnants of Karen?


I don't think so. I just thinks its because of the split of the TUTT.
1642. eye
IMHO, the leftovers of Karen still look sheared, she almost has a tear drop shape.
1643. hahaguy
karen is just like douglas mcarthur i will be back
Lester, with favorable conditions aloft over karen in a day or two, why on this earth could she NOT regenerate? not saying she will but back up your opinion
1648. icmoore
I always root for the ole ball coach, except when they play the Gators. Sorry, so the area off SE FL would probably be a rain maker for S FL only? Cat
1649. eye
that is all this board is...a bunch of people with EGOS...what has happened is more people have joined that think they know what is going on and are not a member of weatherunderground's Click.(5 or so bloggers)
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.

Posted By: zoomiami at 9:20 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
please don't repost those comments - it ruins the ignore effect..


I can not agree more zoo, not to mention that folks that are just viewing the blogs and are not signed in to the WU never have to see those comments unless we repost them.

Some of the "change" that has come to the blog is this "I have to respond to every comment I disagree with, or do not like" type of attitude. Move on, discuss weather, debate, be open minded, and be humble.

Except for the few of us that have posted credentials like wg03, and SW, are just hobbyists and we are here to learn. Some of this stuff detracts from the learning.

Just my very humble opinion :~)
1652. IKE
Posted By: eye at 9:29 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
that is all this board is...a bunch of people with EGOS...what has happened is more people have joined that think they know what is going on and are not a member of weatherunderground's Click.(5 or so bloggers)


Boy...you're on a roll today so far.
1653. TXKiwi
Posted By: LesterNessman at 2:15 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Like I said yesterday, I will wager ANYBODY here $100 even money that the storm Formerly Known As Karen will never make it back to TS strength.

Haven't seem any takers yet, but then again my life does not revolve around this blog, so maybe I missed somebody.


I'll take your $100. If Ike says it's possible, I'll put my money where his mouth is! Email me your phone number and I'll email you mine so I know you're genuine
1654. eye
yall do know it is pretty much a moot point, if Karen does come back, she is almost certainly a fish
1655. IKE
I'll take your $100. If Ike says it's possible, I'll put my money where his mouth is! Email me your phone number and I'll email you mine so I know you're genuine

Please don't base it on what I've said.

Thanks though.
Posted By: zoomiami at 10:25 AM AST on September 30, 2007.
456 - what do you thing about the remnants? Is it getting better organized?


After looking at the visible loops..two things caught my attention.

1. The old low level center is still evident but has become obscured in the past 1-3 hrs by some clouds.

2. The low level easterly flow south of system is veering back westward into the convective mass. What does this mean? The center maybe reforming in the deepest convection.

Take a close look at this.
Couldn't agree with you more SJ!!..silly to argue about.....weather...lol
lesternessman u are quilty of misuse to this blog and in my honest opinion should leave of ur own free will or i beleive u will be removed shortly u want to wager on that.
IKE I think lester's number is

1-800-DOWN-CASTER

or that could be eye's.....let me check the phonebook lol
1661. msphar
"ALPHA MALES...??" My wife refers to this group as a bunch of WEATHER GEEKS (myself included I'm sure)
ALPHA MALES...Wow eye, that may be one of the most observant comments I have seen you make. Could have done it a little better but...

Our Alpha dog shines through in all of us sometimes, but it does seem much more prevalent in some. If we can get past that then the environment can be much more conducive to learning because it is no longer about "I am right, and you are wrong"
ex-karen seems to be firing up new thunderstorms
1664. IKE
Posted By: eye at 9:33 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
Lester's is

560-867-5309


Tommy Tutone...

Link
1665. hahaguy
we are such geeks lmao
lol are you guys really the alpha males...or do us females..let ya think you are...lol
LOL eye that is the phone number from that one song
1668. eye
extreme is yours

1-888-OVER-CASTER

or

1-888-EXTREME-OVERCASTER

I am trying to update my phone book.
I'm a total tropical weather loser..lol..I can't even say geek or nerd..cause I'm not that knowledgable....yet..lol
It appears the shear is decreasing over Karen. She is coming back!
1672. CJ5
So, the Karen coordinates are generally 16/53? In other words, she has not moved in 24hours??
lol 236 You're right that is the phone number from that song! I mean see we may not all agree with eye, but that is clever and funny!
whatever eye....I am not overcasting karen....she has more potential than you want to believe, everytime you say a system is dead they come back, since you RIP them too early....I will laugh if you are wrong, but I personally dont know what will happen with karen...I am also sick of you also saying that I predict everything to be a major which is another lie...why cant we just get along? lol
1675. hahaguy
im curious if she came back would it still be karen or noel
but I have to admit eye, you are fairly clever
no ego here, just telling it like it is for everyone here

isn't that an oxymoron or something ¿~)
lol ag, to your last three posts :~)

And morning to you!
hmmmmmmmm
1681. jpritch
456, I've been watching that blowup in the middle of the big blob, too. Pretty wild, huh?
1682. CaneKid
Even if this storm was just seen as an 'open wave' the relatively low shear/warm water environment it's entering would require a close watch... and for an open wave it looks VERY healthy consdiering the shear.
So, does anyone feel that the U.S. could have another hit before the hurricane seasons goes into hibernation for the winter???
jp, "telling it like it is for everyone here" assumes that you are right in a absolute sense and there is no room for debate or variable.

There is a light breeze here today, the sun is shining, and it is cooler then it has been in previous weeks. I will be out in a while to enjoy some of this beautiful day.

See that is "telling it like it is" :~)
1685. JoeNic
Posted By: hahaguy at 2:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
im curious if she came back would it still be karen or noel



anyone know the answer?
456 - guess I'm getting better at looking at these things! I thought it was going that way - but didn't think it could. I have to say the patterns of the winds and the systems seem to be all confused to me - you look at the water vapor it looks to be moving one way, you look at the sats, etc there going another.. makes my head hurt lol
Welcome aboard Joe :~)

That depends on the scenario. With Karen I would think that would be the case, but if it reformed by merging with another area or could not longer be tracked as a wave and then reformed, then it could get another name.
If karen were to redevelop, then she would still be karen, as the remnants are a part of what was karen
Posted By: JoeNic at 10:44 AM AST on September 30, 2007.
Posted By: hahaguy at 2:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
im curious if she came back would it still be karen or noel


anyone know the answer?


I think she will keep the name Karen since there has been no additional interaction with other systems. I'm not sure what would happen if the originally LLC dissipated and a new one forms.

______________________________________________

Posted By: jpritch at 10:43 AM AST on September 30, 2007.
456, I've been watching that blowup in the middle of the big blob, too. Pretty wild, huh?


yeah

1692. jpritch
Joe, it would still be Karen. As long as they can trace the regenerated remnants back to an original name or number, it stays the same.
Posted By: hahaguy at 2:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
im curious if she came back would it still be karen or noel


anyone know the answer?


I beleive systems that regenerate maintain their previous names, such as Ivan reforming in the Gulf. If Karen were to regenerate she would keep her name.
1696. hahaguy
extreme thanks for answering my question
jp, that is my point. You can not understand that some may have a different evaluation of the situation then you do. Therefore your "telling it like it is" is really "telling it how you see it"

I agree though, if you do not understand my point then there is no sense in debating it any more and wasting blog space.

That said, do you realize that the only folks who can see lester's posts are people that are signed in to the WU? That said, after awhile, why even respond? Same goes for eye. His posts are only seen by folks signed in to the WU who have filter set to show all.
Posted By: zoomiami at 10:46 AM AST on September 30, 2007.
456 - guess I'm getting better at looking at these things! I thought it was going that way - but didn't think it could. I have to say the patterns of the winds and the systems seem to be all confused to me - you look at the water vapor it looks to be moving one way, you look at the sats, etc there going another.. makes my head hurt lol



Yeah...it can get confusing...but i try to separate these three as follows. (maybe it will help)


Visible imagery - use when tracking low level features such as cloud motions, vortices, etc. Also used to track cirrus streamers.

Water Vapor Imagery - major use is to track upper level features and dynamics.

Infrared - use mainly to show cloud intensity.

Just a simplified version. They have many other uses.
Good morning. Since many of my favorite bloggers are on line this morning, I will add my 2 cents. A few general observations about this pattern. Currently I see no major Eastern US amplifications that will change the overall pattern of strong ridging across the N Atl with lower pressure across the SW Atl, Carribean, and Gulf through the 10th-15th of October. Climatology may not be the king for the next couple of weeks and "unusual" storm development and tracks are possible in the projected pattern. Currently I see 2 areas that may threaten the US. The area off the SE US coast and the energy associated with Karen. The most likely scenario with the area off the SE coast is for the energy to split with lowest pressure translating west into the Gulf and a height fall center working N along the inverted coastal trof. 1 or both of these areas could develop. The model consensus is to develop the area in the Gulf. Karen represents a lot of energy moving into a favorable development area in the SW Atl. The odds for redevelopment are improving and the overall synoptic pattern says watch out.
Posted By: msphar at 2:34 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

"ALPHA MALES...??" My wife refers to this group as a bunch of WEATHER GEEKS (myself included I'm sure)


Mine calls us "weather weenies".
Posted By: hahaguy at 2:50 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

extreme thanks for answering my question


Your welcome :-)
Melissa is down to a depression.
ALPHA DOGS?

More like "Alpo pups".
This morning quikscat confirm what i have been seeing on visible imagery. A reformation to the S and E of the original center

1706. beell
beell is down to a depression
1707. jpritch
Dadgummit, did they really take down the floater?
1709. Drakoen
Karen
Looks kind of like TS Juliette is like Melissa's sister
1711. nash28
Ok, I have a question here.

Regarding Karen, between the time Avila seemingly got pissed with Karen (at least that's the tone I got from the 5pm discussion yesterday) and now, did her center ever open up?

Because if not, wouldn't she still qualify as a TD given the QS winds?
jpritch, the GHCC site is like a "floater where you want it"

First link under imagery here.

Morning PDoug :~)
lol "alpo pups" ☺
This morning quikscat confirm what i have been seeing on visible imagery. A reformation to the S and E of the original center

So we may have a regenerating system...but shear is still high and probably won't begin to hugely relax until tommorow. Still, she's managed to exist in some form this long so I would expect Karen's remnants to still be intact tommorow to take advantage of the reduced shear.

11:30 TWO should be coming out within the next 20 minutes.
1714. jpritch
Thank you, SJ.
nash, while the QS is interesting, I am not sure it shows a closed circulation. Close, but not sure the S side is strong enough to be considered closed?
1716. Drakoen
Nash the latest SFC chart from the NHC shows a 1010mb low with an isobar surounding it. Usually that is indicative of a closed sfc low.
I don't know what to think now.
SFC map
1717. nash28
Ok SJ, thanks:-)
I guess now that it's just about October, the tropics may relax some. Melissa will be gone in a day or so. It's a fish storm--anyway. No worries on that.
1719. nash28
I have to tip my hat to Avila.

This has been a system that has had many experienced forecasters in fits, and you could tell he was at his wits end with her yesterday.

Having said that, he recognized that she stood a pretty good chance of reforming, and by leaving that window open, he showed what many should learn. Look at both sides of the equation, especially when both are in play.

Just my take nash. Not sure I am right. It does look very close to being closed.

And sorry, morning to you :~)
1721. Drakoen
Melissa LOL.
Melissa
Ya 456, this is interesting...

High-resolution QuickSCAT shows a broad flow that hints at a new center forming somewhere within the main mass of convection. I see one uncontaminated barb of 40 knots inbetween several others of 30-35 knots.

karen\
Look at both sides of the equation, especially when both are in play.

Well said!!!
If "Karen" reforms is the steering pattern still mostly west?
1726. Drakoen
Posted By: JFV at 3:14 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Hey guys did any of you notice that the NHC just recently took down the floater on the remnents of karen?


yes...
It's funny when you look at the satellite and see EX-Karen compared to wimpy Melissa and only Melissa is still named. Karen still looks like something to be reckoned with.
1728. Dakster
A got the hammer and nails, just let me know when I can put the final nail in the coffin for Melissa and Karen... It's got to be close now.

Hurricane Season 2007 is not far from being over either. Not saying CONUS still can't get a hit from a Major 'Cane, just getting closer to the season ending, date and climatologically wise.
1729. WCFla
so the NHC is thinking that there are no threats at the present time?
NAM 12z 84 hours:

nam
Any predictions on how many storms left for the rest of the tropic year.I predict 4 more.
Drak
remember last evening i ask you what was this convection to the east of Karen. i had my suspicions that the centre was trying to reform.i indicated that on no less than two occaisions yesterday.it will be quite intersting what pans out after the shear relaxes. OH! that difficulty with tropical meteorology
I think with Karen all we can do is wait and see. Every time I think I might have an idea what is going to happen, it doesn't! Luckily I haven't been posting them here, mind you if I had they would chage every hour or so....

There is no point playing one-upmanship with this system, no-one really knows what will happen. The fun is seeing what actually does pan out, not whether you were right or wrong.

Eating crow pie is unpleasant for those eating it and it is only schadenfreude for those looking on.

I love this blog, let's not waste bandwidth on silly disputes and concentrate on the main players in the Atlantic.

My two penneth worth....
Posted By: PensacolaDoug at 11:14 AM AST on September 30, 2007.
If "Karen" reforms is the steering pattern still mostly west?


i'm thinking NW...and its all in conjunction with the upper trough and its associated cold front that just moved off the US east coast.
1736. GoofOff
While technically the season still has 2 more months to run, we have made it past the major and minor spikes for major hurricanes. While that doesn't mean one can't form, history is now on our side. Also, historically, if we get through the next 2 weeks, we should be able to breath a sigh of relief. It has been an active year, but appears to be winding down fairly fast. Let's hope it stays that way even though it does disappoint the gloom and doom forecasters who try to turn convection into a Cat. 5 storm hitting a populated area.
1737. beell
I could be wrong, but not ready to switch over to a new llc location.
Might have to see a few more frames, but see naked 19N 56W w/some wnw movement.
Can't see much feeding into the convective area at 15N 55W
Would appreciate comments on center.
You can still see Karen thru the NOAA site.
Link
Actually, technically in the third week of october there is another minor "spike" in activity
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301519
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MELISSA LOCATED ABOUT 570 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BAHAMA ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED EAST OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ARE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...PLEASE SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BAHAMA ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD
Repeating the question...any predictions on how many tropical systems for the rest of the year? I predict 4.
Posted By: nash28 at 3:09 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

I have to tip my hat to Avila.

This has been a system that has had many experienced forecasters in fits, and you could tell he was at his wits end with her yesterday.

Having said that, he recognized that she stood a pretty good chance of reforming, and by leaving that window open, he showed what many should learn. Look at both sides of the equation, especially when both are in play.

Very well said. As we all know that the tropic are extremely difficult to predict will the conditions we have. Even with all the technoligy we have, it still just a best guess.
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:21 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

Repeating the question...any predictions on how many tropical systems for the rest of the year? I predict 4.


IMO 4 is a good prediction
1747. nash28
No idea of how many more we may see.

Posted By: BioWeather at 8:19 AM PDT on September 30, 2007.

You can still see Karen thru the NOAA site.
Link



huh no you cant when they take Karen down and when you see the word Not Active that means the photo will not update any more that photo is old
But based upon how rapidly we went thru part of the name list toward the latter half of september, it is hard to say exactly how many more storms we will have
the beginning of the month october will be very quiet,but after that i think we may have a couple of storms,
the view images of karen, use the navy site
Earlier predictions was I think 17 maximum, which is the "R" storm. So, that would make it 4 to go. This time 2 years ago, we were on the "S" storm, Stan.
1755. STSUCKS
Posted By: JFV at 10:22 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.

I mean seriously damit. What are the NHC forecasters currently seeing rigth now concerning karen, that we dont see. Any comments? They would be greatly appreciated by me.


The forecasters at the NHC are experts...they do this for a living a lot of them for many years they have experience...us on here don't! If Karen regenerates they will begin issuing advisories on it again! Until then let it go.. it dissapated..If it was a threat they would mention it
1756. beell
You can still see Karen thru the NOAA site.

Could see it. But it's an hour behind. May just have to wait till I can see better.
Thanks
1757. Drakoen
.
huh no you cant when they take Karen down and when you see the word Not Active that means the photo will not update any more that photo is old

Sorry, I had it on loop open in another screen. I didn't see "not active". Still learning from all of you. :-)
"Melissa LOL."

Drak, are you sure thats not a "flock of seagulls?" LOL
i dont think they are updateing this are they?

when evere you see the word Not Active that means they are not updateing it any more or are they

1761. IKE
The 06Z UKMET develops a system near western Cuba...Link
1762. Drakoen
Posted By: thelmores at 3:27 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
"Melissa LOL."

Drak, are you sure thats not a "flock of seagulls?" LOL


ROFL maybe.
1763. IKE
Posted By: thelmores at 10:27 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
"Melissa LOL."

Drak, are you sure thats not a "flock of seagulls?" LOL


Link
Posted By: IKE at 3:28 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

The 06Z UKMET develops a system near western Cuba...Link


yes, it has been consistant with that for a few runs...likely from the system off the SE coast now
1765. Drakoen
You can track ex Karen using RAMSDISKaren
1767. IKE
New 12Z GFS is running...

Link
Where exactly in the Navy site do you go to see the current loops?
1770. STSUCKS
Posted By: HouseofGryffindor at 10:31 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.

For the rest of the year, our main concern should be the GOM I believe. Sure something can form elsewhere, but the GOM is the most likely area

I said that 2 days ago when people were still saying the east coast needed to watch Karen..I also said the western caribbean..thats a hot spot in Oct
1771. nash28
Yes House- The UKMET and NOGAPS are on board for reformation.
Posted By: JFV at 10:22 AM CDT on September 30, 2007.
I mean seriously damit. What are the NHC forecasters currently seeing rigth now concerning karen, that we dont see. Any comments? They would be greatly appreciated by me.


The NHC are probably the best in their field but that doesn't mean they're infallible. To use an analogy, even the best qualified team in football can have a bad day; suffer a loss to an underdog. The NHC forecasters are human. Because of their years of experience we have to respect their conclusions but not always agree.

I don't know if their current forecast is right or wrong but I am going to pay attention to it because they have a good track record but then again they could miss this one.
1774. STSUCKS
House I will say it the east coast is out of the woods!! If Karen regenerates it will curve out to sea
1775. Drakoen
Penn State still has their floater on here.
Karen
hey havent been on for a while... i see ex-karen has convection out there and the forecast over at www.srh.noaa.gov calls for pretty rainy days ahead for me here in San Juan, Puerto Rico... does this mean that Karen's corpse will pass over the islands or something else?
1778. Drakoen
Also the disorganized mess of the SE coast.
Karen
There is now definite rotation just east of Miami on NWS KEY WEST LONG RANGE RADAR. However, no falling barometers on buoys. Is this all mid to upper level rotation?
1780. Drakoen
Posted By: LightningCharmer at 3:42 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
There is now definite rotation just east of Miami on NWS KEY WEST LONG RANGE RADAR. However, no falling barometers on buoys. Is this all mid to upper level rotation?


yep.
1781. beell
Drak,
Do you see anything at 19N 56W?
I say its 50/50 for development of ex-Karen conditions according to the NHC are expected to become somewhat more favorable for some development in the next couple days.Adrian
Posted By: Drakoen at 3:43 PM GMT on September 30, 2007. ...Thanks for the quick answer.
1784. Drakoen
Posted By: beell at 3:43 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Drak,
Do you see anything at 19N 56W?


No. Not seeing a defined circulation.
has monday comes has has we say good bye to the old look and on to the new look



How to ignore a troll in the new blogs

come monday we will have new blogs new look new evere thing new toys
My take on the remnants of Karen which to me never really died out, just went down below TD status, I'm no expert but I think a new center is forming under the deeper convection further south and east , will move more westerly into the Eastern Caribbean regenerate and become a significant storm, my opinion only "not wishcasting".
GFS and NOGAPS show 850-200 zonal shear easing off at 60-66h out. Won't this be about the time former Karen moves past the barrier islands and into warmer water? Tuesday night or Wednesday am...or could I be accused of smoking left-handed cigarettes?
1788. nash28
From everything that I just looked at, Karen does appear to have a closed LLC SE of the original COC.
I don't think some of you understand the NHC discussions. Re: Karen...the NHC has her as a remnant low, and in their final advisory left the door open for the possibility of a regeneration. That's it. Karen is comatose. Waiting at the pearly gates.
.
.
Nobody can say more than that, unless you want the NHC to start writing about the gut feelings that the forecasters have. But they can't do that. They are detached unbiased professional forecasters. Not cheerleaders or gravediggers.
Look at those cool frontal ropes at the leading edge of the cold front.

Frontal ropes are cloud formations that indicate the leading edge of cold fronts. They are of the greatest tool for the placement of frontal boundaries. So anytime u see these formations that is indicator of a classic fornt.



From the latest High Seas Forecast.

.LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF KAREN...NEAR 18N56W 1012 MB MOVE NW 10
KT. WITHIN 210 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 21N58W 1014 MB. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR
SEAS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 23N60W 1015 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.


Link
House, one thing to remember too, the frequency of troughs increases dramatically in October to about one every 4-5 days while at the same time the westerlies are becoming stronger by the day. The chance of an EC storm is slim to none, especially if you look at the pattern next weekend and early the following week. A large trough is poised to dig over the northeast, so anything approaching from the east will most likely get kicked back out into the Atlantic.
1794. beell
OK, thanks. Maybe I'm looking too hard. Think the ongoing convection looks kinda like convection one might see on the east side of a typical wave and not a new "center".
Ok, I am off to enjoy this wonderful Sunday. See y'all this afternoon :~)

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1796. Drakoen
Really windy with extremely heavy downpours where i am. Doing more than Ernesto did LOL.
1797. nash28
Cosmic- We understand the NHC discussion just fine.

I suggest you go back and read one of my posts from this morning about "both sides of the equation".
1798. Patrap
SHEAR Domination..Central Atlantic Loop WV

Link
Morning again, all. I haven't read back in the blog past the current page yet, but I'm curious as to whether QScat caught any of the areas we are watching. Also, what about this evening's Qscat? Any chance of seeing ex-Karen or the activity near the Bahamas?
Mornin folks.....lunchtime peek for me..

Remnant of Karen DOES look a little better to me too. Also, looks like if she DOES rengenerate (to me)....that she'll turn north (one of the models showed this yesterday..cant remember which one) Any thoughts? Well wait..that was silly..I KNOW there are thoughts *laffs*
1802. Patrap
Visible Central Atlantic Loop

Link
Posted By: Weather456 at 3:48 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

Look at those cool frontal ropes at the leading edge of the cold front.

Frontal ropes are cloud formations that indicate the leading edge of cold fronts. They are of the greatest tool for the placement of frontal boundaries. So anytime u see these formations that is indicator of a classic fornt.


Great education shot...are the ropes formed by the dropping of air on the front that roll back under the leading edge or what?
1804. IKE
Steve Lyons, TWC, just said the spin just east of Florida is an upper level low....the surface low, if it forms, should form further east and get pulled west across Florida.
1806. Patrap
Is it fish and Chips,or Fish and wish?
LOL
1807. sngalla
Hi all. Ft Lauderdale, we are getting winds of 15-22mph. Looks like a decent thunderstorm approaching.
TWC says everything is an ULL LOL....the NHC didnt even mention an ULL
1810. Drakoen
yea sngalla radar imagery shows heavy thunderstorm cells approaching your area.
1812. dearmas
What's up with the wind here in Tampa? Where did this come from?
1813. IKE
Steve Lyons also didn't say a whole lot about Karen regenerating. Actually he said nothing about her reforming...he said it would bring showers to the northern islands.
Area across the bahamas is moving westward per the 1130....Interesting.
House
Steady wind of 14 knots gusts to 24 here in NE FL w/occasional brief rain
1816. sngalla
TWC=the wasted channel
1818. Patrap
WV Loop of the GOM/Atlantic

Link
1819. Patrap
Fascinating...
1821. Drakoen
If you are in Palm Beach county (west), Fort Lauderdale, and dade- county watch out as thunderstorms are heading in your general direction.
My thoughts at first were that the area across the bahamas would stay out to sea but its moving westward per the 1130.

Slow development is possible.
1823. mit5000
dr masters must be haveing a lie-in
LOL
1825. IKE
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
859 am EDT sun Sep 30 2007


Update...strong NE flow continues and activity will continue to
advect into Southeast Florida. But the gfs40 shows a steadily drying
trend through the day in the mean rh's so the trend to drop the
probability of precipitation to 50 percent over the southeast looks reasonable. The 12z
sounding shows 20 to 25 knots above the surface to 4000 feet and
they are considerably higher in the kxmr sounding. Will not add
any advisories with respect to wind at this time. Will wait for the 12z
runs to see about the strength of the forecasted low that will cross
South Florida or The Straits Monday night.

Great education shot...are the ropes formed by the dropping of air on the front that roll back under the leading edge or what?

I hope u understand what i'm about to say:


The ropes are caused by differential advection. Where cold air moves forwards and downwards undercutting warm air moving in the opposite direction but upwards. This opposite flow of streams rolls the cloud (i wish i could put into a better term)...like when you roll bread doe...one hand moves one way and the other hand moves the other.
1828. Drakoen
Whatever kind of circulation is left of Karen appear to be covered per RAMSDIS "center" fix.
Karen
1829. Patrap
fxus64 klix 301135 aaa
afdlix


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans la
635 am CDT sun Sep 30 2007


Update...


Winds have increased above 20 knots across much of the Gulf
coastal waters. Therefore a Small Craft Advisory has been issued.

Long term...


Overall...have decided to go with a blend of the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
solution. A strong upper level ridge centered over the deep south
will continue to dominate the region on Wednesday. However...a
developing tropical upper tropospheric trough will slide beneath
the ridge into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night. At this
time...it appears that this area of low pressure will mainly be in
the upper levels of the atmosphere with an inverted trough axis
extending up into the northern of Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and
Thursday. The overall steering currents for this feature will be
east to west...so any surface features that develop will be
focused toward Mexico or south Texas.
However...increasing
moisture and pressure gradients can be expected from Thursday into
the weekend...as this tropical wave moves through the Gulf of
Mexico. Given this...have put in isolated probability of precipitation Wednesday into
Wednesday night over the coastal waters as deeper tropical
moisture and some upper level lift associated with the trough axis
moves into the region.
1830. Drakoen
little bit of a spin. Not well defined though.
Link
Posted By: Weather456 at 4:02 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.

Great education shot...are the ropes formed by the dropping of air on the front that roll back under the leading edge or what?

I hope u understand what i'm about to say:


The ropes are caused by differential advection. Where cold air moves forwards and downwards undercutting warm air moving in the opposite direction but upwards. This opposite flow of streams rolls the cloud (i wish i could put into a better term)...like when you roll bread doe...one hand moves one way and the other hand moves the other.


Weather456...thanks, I did understand and it is much as I envisioned...thanks.
Thanks for posting that IKE....i read the discussion earlier before they updated it.This area has to be watched as sst's are plenty warm in the area and upper level winds could become more favorable for some development as it moves westward.
I notice NHC hasn't taken down the Karen paraphernalia just yet . . . guess they don't want double work if it does in fact manage to regenerate.

I'm thinking Karen's best chance for a comeback will occur tonight, when the shear levels are forecast to drop radically and when diurnal max can give the most assistance. If nothing happens, I think I'll be a lot more skeptical about regeneration. Right now I'm thinking she has a 60% chance of ending up like Ingrid.
"I'll have an update Sunday by noon."




Well, Doc didn't say which time zone. ;~D
House
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.

SURF AND WAVE ACTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREAKERS
OF 5 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY AND 6 TO 8 FEET MONDAY. INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS
SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

I am thinking that experienced swimmers know better? Gonna go out shortly and see what red tide remains.
1836. Patrap
fxus62 kmfl 301259
afdmfl


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
859 am EDT sun Sep 30 2007


The frontal boundary will move little tonight through Monday. GFS/European model (ecmwf)
are both in agreement in cutting off a middle/upper low and moving it
SW across the Florida Straits tonight...with a weak surface low or
amplified trough developing along the frontal boundary. The models
both take the low/trough westward across the Keys or straits late
Monday into Tuesday with moisture making a rapid comeback across
the area then. Thus...after only isd/scattered activity expected tonight
and early Monday...trended probability of precipitation up to likely for the East Coast
Monday and Monday night...then likely across the entire area for
Tuesday. Winds will also subside in a hurry with the passage of
the low/trough late Mon/Tue. Behind this feature...high pressure
will build in from the north...but moisture will remain high...so
maintained chance probability of precipitation throughout the extended forecast.
1837. IKE
Well, Doc didn't say which time zone. ;~D

LOL.
Another way of watching non-floater "blobs" up close is via http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html , which is NASA's Interactive Viewers Page.
It is beautiful, sunny, blue sky, and breezy here right now - must be coming my way :-}
1848. sngalla
Raining pretty good here now.
Who was it keeping track of blogger locations again?
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-128

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 25.0N 84.0W AT 02/1800Z

Development seems possible as it moves westward.
hi all whats the coorrdinats we looking for a spin with the bahammas blob thanks
1855. msphar
The world doesn't live by EDT alone.
1856. FitzRoy
5 hours 25 minutes.
1857. Drakoen
Posted By: msphar at 4:25 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
The world doesn't live by EDT alone.


Its used as a base time.
1860. Drakoen
Looking at the GFS 12z run. It looks like it may want to spawn back up Karen as a weak system north of the lesser Antilles late this coming week.
1861. Patrap
UTC is the ONLY base time...
1865. Drakoen
Posted By: Patrap at 4:27 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
UTC is the ONLY base time...


I'm saying like regularyly in reference to everything else.
There are currently about 5 long-wave troughs in the N Hemisphere today

1869. Drakoen
The cimss 15:00UTC shear map still shows strong vorticity maximum at 850mb with ex karen. Shear tendency map shows decreasing shear. There is still good lower level convergence and upper level divergence.
With the area of the Florida coast. The 500mb height shows a mid level rotation east of Miami. Still no signs of it working its way down to the surface. Wind shear in that area is 30-40kts.
could the bahamma blob may be a td or ts before it aprocches fla ? where are the coorridiants for it is it around 22n 70 west anyone know thanks
1875. beell
I'm a second liner Patrap
:-]
Beell wrote:

I'll try No. 2: Great Plains T-Storms/Tornadoes derive their spin from directional shear or a change in wind direction w/height. SE at the sfc, SW/Mid Level, and maybe NW higher up. Hurricanes die by speed shear or vertical shear-a change in wind speed-not necessarily direction above a semi-fixed point at the surface. In can be in the same direction as storm movement. If you sampled wind direction above any point in a mature hurricane, wind direction would be pretty much the same.

Now I am confused. Isnt it the case that over a mature hurricane we will find an anticyclone? Certainly if you look down on one the cirrus seems to be spiralling outward, even as the low clouds are spiralling inward.

Assuming for the moment I am right here, would not the winds in an upper air anti cyclone HAVE to be rotating in the opposite direction to a lower level cyclone beneath it????

Finally, assuming that the previous statements are correct, wouldn't this constitute a kind of sheer?


I may have reiterated what you already know-if so, please forgive.

On the contrary, I am learning gobs here. When we get this figured out we can both take the met test.

thanks,

Calvin