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June hurricane season outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:37 PM GMT on June 15, 2007

An area of disturbed weather with heavy thunderstorm activity has developed along a broad trough of surface low pressure in the western Caribbean between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. Satellite imagery shows a steadily increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. NHC canceled the Hurricane Hunter flight scheduled for this afternoon, and has not scheduled a mission for Saturday.

NHC no longer thinks highly enough of this system to offer their suite of early model tracks, but the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all indicate that the disturbance will move north then northeastward over the weekend, bringing heavy rains of 2-4 inches over Central Cuba, extreme South Florida, and the northwest Bahama Islands. Some isolated amounts of up to 6 inches are possible over Cuba and the Bahamas. All of these models indicate the possibility that a tropical or subtropical depression could form by Sunday near South Florida or the Bahamas. There is enough wind shear that an extratropical storm could form, instead, though. Wind shear over the disturbance has decreased from 20-25 to 10-20 knots today, and is forecast to remain at similar levels for the next 48 hours. There is some dry air one can see on Water vapor satellite loops over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico slowing development of the system, and this will continue to be a factor that will slow development over the next two days. Surface pressures are not falling over the region, and thus any development is going to be slow to occur. I give the system a 20% chance of becoming a depression. Wind shear is a very high 20-40 knots from central Florida northwards, which should act to keep the top winds of any storm that does form below 50 mph.

Last half of June climatology
The last half of June is usually one of the quietest portions of hurricane season. In the 12 years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, only four tropical storms formed in the last half of June. Thus, recent history gives us a 33% chance of a last-half-of-June named storm. None of those four storms since 1995 became a hurricane, and hurricanes are quite rare in June. Only one major hurricane has has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The primary breeding grounds for last half of June tropical storms is the western Gulf of Mexico (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851 that formed June 16-30. The western Gulf of Mexico is the preferred location for storm formation in late June. Interestingly, the eastern Gulf of Mexico sees the most early June storms.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have remained about 0.5-1.0 �C above average over the tropical Atlantic over the past two weeks. An area of cooler than average SSTs that surrounded Florida in early June has shrunk, and the entire Gulf of Mexico is now warmer than average. However, while SSTs are above normal, they are still far cooler than the peak temperatures that occur in August-October. This will limit the regions where tropical storm formation can occur this month to the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest (Figure 2). June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for June 14, 2007. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, Figure 3) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. As we can see, there is less heat energy available this year than in 2005, which recorded the highest SSTs and TCHP ever measured in the tropical Atlantic. I expect that the TCHP will continue to remain below 2005 levels this year, so we should not see as many intense hurricane as we saw in 2005.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for June 14 2005 (top) and June 14 2007 (bottom). TCHP is a measure of the total heat energy available in the ocean. Record high values of TCHP were observed in 2005. TCHP this year is still quite high, but lower than in 2005. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart.

Wind shear over the past 11 days (Figure 4, top image) has been above 20 knots over most of the breeding grounds for June tropical storms--the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahama waters. While the shear has been below average (Figure 4, bottom image), any wind shear above 20 knots is high enough to discourage tropical storm formation. This is very typical for June, when the jet stream is still very active and quite far south. The jet stream will gradually weaken as summer progresses, bringing lower wind shear and greater chances for tropical storm formation. The extreme southwestern Caribbean has seen shear below 10 knots, but no tropical waves or remains of old cold fronts have moved into this region to trigger tropical storm formation. The latest two-week forecast from the GFS model predicts that wind shear will be near normal levels across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical Atlantic for the remainder of June.


Figure 4. Top: Average wind shear over the past 11 days. Wind shear is the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude) in meters per second (multiply by two to get the approximate wind shear in knots). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots (10 m/s, the blue colors in the top image) will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots (6 m/s, the orange colors) is very conducive for tropical storm formation.
Bottom: Departure of wind shear from average for the past 11 days in meters per second. Note that wind shear has been below average over most of the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico over the past 11 days.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast, though.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern for the first half of June featured a pattern much like we saw in 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. I expect this pattern to continue for the remainder of June, and the troughs should be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms of hurricanes that penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no telling if we are in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea. It is encouraging to note that in 2006 the steering current pattern locked into place in late May and stayed that way for almost the entirety of the hurricane season. The atmosphere often stays locked in to a particular steering pattern for an entire summer.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 33% chance of a named storm occurring in the second half of June. Given that the current SST pattern and two-week wind shear forecast look fairly typical for June, and we have a system out there now that has a small chance of becoming a named storm, I'll go with a 40% chance of a named storm forming during the last half of June.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hi all, just enjoying the debate here as usual. Heavy rain,lightning and thunder here but very light winds. Bar is 1013 mb and steady. Will be around for a while tonite.Hi Stotmpetrol, where are you located? I am in Newlands.
no ships within 100 nm & the ones between there & 140nm aren't screaming circulattion yet.
so is Proenza no longer working for the nhc?
Awww Come on Guys.....

a
why cant we all get along!!! share the meteorlogical love....pleasee!! LOL
Thanks
now Sky I trust...dont know what the chart means...but it must be right...heheheh
Yes Taz, I raised a question on Dr. M's blog earlier this morning..before he quickly updated his blog with our nice activity in the Carrib....


This was my post some 6 or 7 hours ago:

Posted By: MisterPerfect at 3:50 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

What is this weather blog community going to do when the QuikSCAT sattelite incenrates in orbit and no replacement is scheduled? Will we need constant hunter aircraft on patrol to judge shear? Are we doomed? Should I cancel my tee-time this Saturday? What came first, the chicken or the egg?



Thanks for forcing my question TAZ.....

You ROCK!
Yea sky we are trying to figure it out by the nearby obs too it looks like it shouldnt be so low. The front is almost over it so Im thinking a storm or low traveling up??
so the old GFDL model wont have anymore runs? and will it only be used during invests or storms?
Actually hurricanefcast right now were on track to a similar set-up to 2006 with a pretty active jet-stream and very persistent trofiness of the east coast of the united states.One key thing to keep in mind which Jeff masters mentioned in his blog this evening is usually when these type of patterns get established this early then can very easily persist threw the entire hurricane season like 2006.The season will likely be active number wise but remember its not the number of storms that form that matters its the ones that actually hit land are the ones that actually have the greatest impact. Adrian
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.67 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.16 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Link

Talking about iguana farts...I hope I don't get banned for this, but I couldn't resist!
(It is Friday night after all...)

When it comes to the weather, don't bank on it!
Good evening. Its a lovely evening here, at 11n 61w.
Seems to me that its raining in Cuba, but everything else is in dispute ? Way to go, guys........
That trofiness ends by the end of the month if not sooner. Watch and see... this will be no 2006.
Just a warning.. higher forces don't appreciate comedy in the form of visuals.. in this blog... visit some of the others to express yourself...

Doctor Masters Blog is a shrine to meteorology.
hurricane23-
Lol.. Nope. Sorry.. Take a look at the Bermuda High.. Despite the Jet.. The High is way too strong this year.. The only reason we had recurvatures was because of the placement of the Bermuda High.. The Jet had nothing to do with it.. All the Jet did was pick up Storms and Take them North, However, With the Bermuda High where it is this year.. Storms won't be picked up so soon and We won't have recurvatures..

I see what JFlorida means about everyones' need to disagree with posts... Hmmm... WHAT SHOULD WE DO NOW?? AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Not sure JP! There is alot of action in the area the bouy posted and the area I circled earlier. If you zoom in on the WESTATL AVN, clouds are racing into the area! This is kinda new this evening, have to see how it plays out. The map I posted earlier are my thoughs so, that is where I am looking.
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 7:52 PM CST on June 15, 2007.
Just a warning.. higher forces don't appreciate comedy in the form of visuals.. in this blog... visit some of the others to express yourself...

Doctor Masters Blog is a shrine to meteorology.


Errr yes I can tell
Chicklit.. Lol.. I didn't want to post that because.. Well.. You see. Lol. Nice!

MisterPerfect- I know, That's why I'm being Cautious and as soon as I get warned I'll stop.. But i'm not attacking anyone nor harming anyone in any way.. So what's bad about it?
your welcome MP
Posted By: pottery2 at 1:51 AM GMT on June 16, 2007.

Good evening. Its a lovely evening here, at 11n 61w.
Seems to me that its raining in Cuba, but everything else is in dispute ? Way to go, guys........



Seems to be coming in usual troical behavior in Miami. Bands, drain, bands, drain...

Locals call for flooding in my area.


No Golf tomorrow.

But I will still barbeque in the rain Sunday for the old man.

Unless we spend Saturday filling up the cars and putting wood on the windows..
No problem jph, will keep you updated regularly whenever something is lurking in this area.
Taz was in the news today.
Proenza is still the director. Only Charlie Crist can relieve him of his duty.
Unless we spend Saturday filling up the cars and putting wood on the windows..

Lol.. MisterPerfect.. I highly doubt that. =)
Cane do you really think there is a low forming? JP

This is the question of the evening...
I'll check back in the a.m.
Proenza is still the director. Only Charlie Crist can relieve him of his duty.

Or the President. He can do as he pleases.
MP~ Taz may have got that off my blog that I just headlined with that. I figured Bill would get a repremand with his constant stiring of the quikscat eventually. Shall be interesting where this goes. & if anyone finds a copy of that letter online~please drop it by my blog.

the nearest ship is near 130miles away (110nm) pretty far.
HurricaneFCast the jet-stream has indeed been very active bringing trof after trof of low pressure of the east coast and if this persists it will be very hard for systems to threaten the united states.Areas like bermuda and the azores will be prime targets if we have a similar set-up.Adrian
There is a bulge forming over the buoy area on the sat. its roughly circular. The shear is distorting it.
Evening pottery, how bout your local T&T boy { Ames} only 1 shot back in the US Open?
That's exactly right HurricaneFCast. That bermuda high will be cranking strong by the end of next week. This looks more like 2004 than it does 2006, especially with the below normal blob of sst water off se coast, which can be argued to be similar to 2004. Of course it's way too early to tell what August and Sept will be like. But if IWIC had their bold predictions busted in the first 48 hours of the 2007 season, my guess is at least as good as theirs.
Mister perfect you think this thing is going to develop talking about boarding up windows
sorry sky


i this want to yet evere one no about it want me to look a round for that copy of that letter online for you??? if so where do i start looking?
Hurricane23- Lol.. You seem to be forgetting the Massive High Pressure Area that won't budge.. The Bermuda High.. A trough will shy away from a High Pressure system.. It's not strong enough to move one. The Bermuda High stays and we don't have a pattern like 06'..

Posted By: HurricaneFCast at 1:56 AM GMT on June 16, 2007.

Unless we spend Saturday filling up the cars and putting wood on the windows..

Lol.. MisterPerfect.. I highly
doubt that. =)



Don't underestimate forces you observe yet can't control. August of 2005 a little Tropical Storm named Katrina blew through Miami and brought down a 50,000 ton highway ramp, destroying traffic for days, as it moved across the EVER EVER EVER ENDING SWAMP...........you all know the rest. To be prepared fully is to expect the unexpected, forget computer models when its clear the water will rise and the wind will be forceful, and even more forceful, God save you. At a point, a hurricane's strength is UNMEASUREABLE!! Or at least was until we perfect it and somebody gets rich.

Never wish a tropical storm, just deal with it; and with your life on the line. NEVER, EVER, LET YOUR GUARD DOWN.

......and that's all I got to say about that...
stormchaser77 said:
All Funny Stuff aside Either The Buoy Is Malfunctioning or Something Major Is Going On Down There.

Pressure Drop of -0.16 in 2 hours.
Winds are Shown as Light BUT Wind Gusts To
24 KTS shown In Last 2 hours.


Buoy #42056

29.68 (Falling Rapidly)
29.84



It's me. I'm standing on #42056 at the moment drinking rum with my shop-vac sucking on the pressure sensor input while watching the show unfold on this blog.
Hi Caymanite. Yeh, he's hitting the ball well today. T&T could use some positive press these days !!!!!
hurricane 23 you got mail
It's all good Taz:) I'm not really sure, says they made it public record though so it's probibly out there, yet buried somewhere.

The bermuda high is actually in its normal place currently with no signs of a similar setup to 2004 or 2005.If this were august or september right now with all these trofs coming down tropical systems would be turned away before ever becoming a threat.Steering patterns are generaly hard to predict 1-2 weeks in advance but the overall trend the past 2 months looks good for us if it were to continue.Adrian
Yawn,i Am so... bored ...... Hey is this thing ever going to develop !
Hi Caymanite, I live in South Sound, can't help but notice also that the pressure has risen despite the rain, we have a few squalls down this side, probably 20-30mph gusts but few and far between, nasty lightning though.
Yeah something whack is going on down there.

wow
Posted By: StormHype at 10:06 PM EDT on June 15, 2007.

stormchaser77 said:
All Funny Stuff aside Either The Buoy Is Malfunctioning or Something Major Is Going On Down There.

Pressure Drop of -0.16 in 2 hours.
Winds are Shown as Light BUT Wind Gusts To
24 KTS shown In Last 2 hours.


Buoy #42056

29.68 (Falling Rapidly)
29.84



It's me. I'm standing on #42056 at the moment drinking rum with my shop-vac sucking on the pressure sensor input while watching the show unfold on this blog


TRIPLE LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The bermuda high is actually in its normal place currently with no signs of a similar setup to 2004 or 2005.If this were august or september right now with all these trofs coming down tropical systems would be turned away before ever becoming a threat.Steering patterns are generaly hard to predict 1-2 weeks in advance but the overall trend the past 2 months looks good for us if it were to continue.Adrian

Oh Really? Man.. Come on.. You should really back up what you say..

Look At the Bermuda High..
a


THAT'S NOT NORMAL! Lol.. It's further South and West than normal.
alright....on the bermuda high debate. Start posting some comparison pics. Lets get some facts.
LMAO pottery. Know what you mean.
: HurricaneFCast i 2nd that you are so right
evening baybuddy!! Nice tree house.!!


oh yea...Roll Tide!!!
Taz- Thank You!!! Lol.. Just look at the picture.. I provided proof because Hurricane23 persisted...
Gosh!!! HFC just drew that red line right over my house. LOL
Taz, don't be mean. If you are going to talk to him like that, at least say it in a nicer way.

23, I'm glad you are posting. I love new posters, unless they are trolls, which you aren't one. If you like weather, keep posting. Ignore the criticism. Only God knows what'll recurve, not us.

The Gulf of Mexico seems to have cooled off just a bit? Why is this? MJO (assuming it even affects SSTs), kelvin wave, what?
Caymanite- Lol.. Not meant for a steering pattern.. It's to show the Potential movement of storms and patterns that could develop this year compared to past years.. The Bermuda High will not allow for a repeat of 06' .. These storms this year will not Recurve as soon as 06'.. Like I Stated earlier it will be more of the steering pattern from 04'-05'
Hurricane23...why must you sign your name "Adrian" after every post you copy from either Dr. Masters or the NHC? I actually find it humorous yet sad.

Partake in your plagiarism and end the post without your signature. No one else does it (at least since STORMTOP departed).
Hey, Baybuddy, is that your " storm surge preservation device " ??
Nice one.
looks at *all* global models as to what is going to happen to the bermuda high in the next week. It's growing big time and anchoring in more towards the SW.
Kori- Look at the Bermuda High..
Please don't be ignorant because that's exactly what you're doing right now.. You're better than that Kori, I know.
Just Look and you'll see.. We can tell it's definitely not 2006's pattern.. So don't deny what's right in front of your face and then encourage the incorrect opinion.. You're better than that.
oh siad i was being mean????
Where is the Center located currently
Iam going to leave you with this posts from Jeff masters today in regards to this years steering pattern.

Iam not interested in debating right now as i got to get up for work early.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern for the first half of June featured a pattern much like we saw in 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. I expect this pattern to continue for the remainder of June, and the troughs should be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms of hurricanes that penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no telling if we are in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea. It is encouraging to note that in 2006 the steering current pattern locked into place in late May and stayed that way for almost the entirety of the hurricane season. The atmosphere often stays locked in to a particular steering pattern for an entire summer.
576. ryang
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.
This IS DIRECTLY FROM NASA:

In 2004 and 2005, the Bermuda High expanded to the south and west, pushing storms into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. But in 2006 the Bermuda High remained small and in a position that would steer storms up the East Coast of the United States or out into the Atlantic.

when we get are 1st cat 5 out there then we would all stop fighting



is there a cat 5 out there some where?
Now.. Please.. Look at the picture from THIS YEAR.. and Tell me it isn't similar to 2004-2005 when it was FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST..
no development with pressure dropping that fast
no one answered me where is the center
The steering current pattern for the first half of June featured a pattern much like we saw in 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. I expect this pattern to continue for the remainder of June, and the troughs should be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms of hurricanes that penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no telling if we are in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea. It is encouraging to note that in 2006 the steering current pattern locked into place in late May and stayed that way for almost the entirety of the hurricane season. The atmosphere often stays locked in to a particular steering pattern for an entire summer.

This is from Dr. Masters.. Tell me where it says ANYTHING about the Bermuda High???
Also:
that penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea.

You do realize that North of the Caribbean Sea is Florida and the GOM.. Which means that they would not Recurve out into the Atlantic as in 2006.. They would actually hit land.. Much like a DREW ON MY MAP! Why are you fighting this hurricane23.. Lol.. You're wrong.. I'm sorry.. But you are and it's foolish and futile to persist with your point of view.. I see what you're thinking.. but you're misunderstanding what you're reading.. He's saying storms will ACTUALLY reach the GOM or Florida.. MUCH LIKE I SAID IN MY NASA POST, Similar to 2004-2005.. Before they Recurve..
Its all about trofs and ridges when it comes tropical systems and from what ive seen for the past 30 days or so looks well for us.If this trend continues threw the meat of the season which forcasting something like that is impossible it would be great news.But this current trend is something i like to see.

Let the trofs of low pressure rule.Adrian
Ryang, how are you doing ?
: HurricaneFCast i am with you %1,000
JP- Man, You missed the beginning of the argument.. and also a very good image of the Bermuda High this year.. Unfortunately Adrian is wrong this time.. He's misundertanding the pattern.. Now.. I just explained some of it but i'm going to repost the image for you JP.. Maybe then you'll see what's going on. You're normally not the one to misunderstand things though JP so I know you'll see it.
595. ryang
Hey Pottery, new name??
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

This is a live pic of me hooking my shop-vac up to the barometer of 42056 while my buds Ralph and Jose watch the laptop and laugh their butts off watching Stormchaser77 freaking out on this blog. Can you blame us? It's really boring riding this thing all day.
JP- North of the Caribbean is Florida.. Lol.. North of the Antilles is East of the Bahamas..
I would like to point out that Dr. Masters also used generalities ubiquitously in that post.. Generalities often lead to confusion or misunderstanding. Please, Take my word for it, Because I'm well-informed of this.
HFC. The overall pattern.
News update with *****Name*****

Okay The Argument sesion is over and we will now Return To our regular programing or else

Dear,23,Taz,HFC why do you guys have to fight on a friday night ...Can we get back to the borring low..yawn
Kori- Look at the Bermuda High..
Please don't be ignorant because that's exactly what you're doing right now.. You're better than that Kori, I know.
Just Look and you'll see.. We can tell it's definitely not 2006's pattern.. So don't deny what's right in front of your face and then encourage the incorrect opinion.. You're better than that.


Huh? I never said anything. All I said is that God knows what's gonna happen, not us. And he does.

Now, can you please answer my question (or at least someone)? Why has the GoM cooled off just a bit? Looks like a couple of degrees?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:31 PM EDT on June 15, 2007.

: HurricaneFCast keep posting that map may be 23 will get it

???????????????????????????:(?????????????
The Bermuda High can change from week to week yes it is further South and West but there is nothing developing right now, so why the big deal? If there was a system out there the position matters more but right now it does not matter. All Dr M and 23 said the pattern is set up right now like 2006 doesn't mean it will stay that way, I hope it does since I live in FL and don't need any Hurricanes.

The Bermuda High is EASILY in position to steer more storms towards the U.S. this year. That's why I think there is an 80% chance of a major hurricane hit in the U.S. this year. But I'm beginning to think that you, FCast, as well as most of everyone else, wants storms. That's sad. As you told me, YOU'RE better than that.
Stormhype, tell Ralpf to go round to the other side next time he needs to take a leak. Sheessssss!
JP- Yet a 1024 High pressure system that is South and West of all the troughs will not be eroded by them.. Trust me man.. You don't have to defend someone based on a personal bias you can simply agree with the correct opinion. That image is Current.. It's from tonight. The Bermuda High is not in the same position as it was in 2006..

JP, Tell me, Do you honestly believe that every storm that forms this year will recurve? Because that's what Adrian is saying.

If these trofs of low pressure continue threw august and september we might very well see a year like 06 again were eveything is turned away.I mean look at this last one moving threw florida in mid june come on.You should be happy to see this.
take a look are big H is more and S like it was in 2004 and 2005
77, that was waaaaay deep!
Dear All,When will this become a TD

Thundercloud01221991,You said on your advisory that it is nearing Ts strength is that true and do you have proof - Just curious
Exactly sporte!!
Kori- Lol. Ok Man. I'm trying to point out that the Bermuda High is in a different position this year than it was last year. That's all.
It's the truth.. I'm right on that one. Also, I'm willing to bet BIG MONEY that this year will be different from last.. the steering pattern obviously is different if we are getting storms in the GOM in JUNE... Thank You.
622. ryang
map
Well, Ralph doesn't have the best manners. That's why he can only find working floating around on one of these CMAN buoys. He's also a heavy drinker. What can I say, he's from the islands.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 2:37 AM GMT on June 16, 2007.

take a look are big H is more and S like it was in 2004 and 2005
WHAT?
Ryang, I had to change servers, and my name was taken! What a thing.......
JP- Because of the Bermuda High.. You're missing the point as well.. The Bermuda High is much more dominate than a measly trough. It's already out of the way of incoming trofs anyways.. So why is this so hard to get? It's futher SOUTH AND WEST... A.K.A. Out of the way..
the steering pattern obviously is different if we are getting storms in the GOM in JUNE... Thank You.

Umm, thats where they go in June. Oh and it was one almost, maybe storm, Barry..LOL
The current trend is what iam tring to point out...
JP- Lol.. Not 2 of them..
ok how about this then if 2 hurricane makes land fall this year with out recurveing you have to play me $200 how about it?
JP- For GOD's Sake why the argument.

This IMAGE SHOWS IT:
WHY ARGUE?
YOU HAVE YOUR PROOF!
ADRIAN HAS POSTED NO PROOF WHATSOEVER, IT'S ALL WORDS FROM HIM

s
keep on posting that map : HurricaneFCast
chaser has it right. people want to compare years to give simplistic reference points but in reality, this year will only be like 2007. Andrea and Barry have both already been absolutely weird.

Just thinking out loud about the personality of this discussion about the tropics. I like the different viewpoints and all the resources/info available here.
good job : HurricaneFCast
good evening to all,something strange is going on down there,just look at the pressure at buoy 42056!!

29.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.19 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Link
JP- Lol.. Simple Point: The Bermuda High has a significant impact on steering patterns in the Tropical Atlantic.. Look where the Bermuda High is right now.. That's not Similar to 2006. That's my point. Right there. That's it.. That's all i'm trying to say.. Do you agree with that?
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:42 PM EDT on June 15, 2007.

um first off this isnt a storm

secondly the activity in the western caribbean has nothing to do with the Bermuda high


Jp do you think the W.Caribbean disturbanceWill be come a Td Soon?
There is definately a swirl in the middle of the diminishing convection south of Cuba. Can't tell at what level its at though. Link
Images Images HoRaaHH!!!!

ok all you be sorry
Wondering why everyone is debating a pattern that will not set till mid july? Even when it does set up, it changes frequently. The high needs to be evaluated on a case by case basis.
Ok HFC we saw the map the first time. Yes, that is the position today, but lets look at the overall pattern the past month. Has it always been there? Has there been mainly a trough hanging over the East Coast the past month?
Anyway goodnight guys we still got a long way to go before the heart of the season is upon us so all we can do know is prepare for the worst and hope for the best this season.Take care adrian.
ryang from when are those the most recent model runs
JP- Lol, Man.. This conversation swirled into an all out war.. There was no reason for it. The only thing I was trying to say is that It's not Similar to 2006, That this year the storms will not Recurve nearly as much as 2006.. That's not hard to see for a meteorologically-educated person such as yourself.
HurricaneFCast i am with you all the way keep on posting that map of your may be they will soon get the point
Thanks hfcast.
nice image. :))
Conditions at 42056
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.19 in ( Falling Rapidly
I see what JP is trying to say.. and JP.. I'm not saying that's permanent.. not at all... That's current..
I realize how troughs will affect it buy my point is that it's not a similar steering pattern to 2006 right now.. That's it.. and that's right.
StormChaser77 says...
THE BUOY IS NOW REPORTING 29.65
DOWN -0.19 IN 3 HOURS
29.65- Bottoming Out
29.69- Falling Lower
29.71- Falling
29.83- Beginning to Fall
29.84- ****
29.85- ****

ROFLMAO
HEHEHE! Pass me another beer Ralph... he's still falling for it. I'm cranking the shop-vac up on high again. HEHEHE!
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:48 PM EDT on June 15, 2007.

HurricaneFCast i am with you all the way keep on posting that map of your may be they will soon get the point


I just got here and i see the point,i am already pissed Off
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 10:46 PM EDT on June 15, 2007. (hide)
Ok HFC we saw the map the first time. Yes, that is the position today, but lets look at the overall pattern the past month. Has it always been there? Has there been mainly a trough hanging over the East Coast the past month?

The answer to that question would be yes.Lets hope it continues.
663. ryang
Miamiweather...About have hour ago...
War. Its a debate. And a good one at that. Like to see all the point of views. Gotta take into consideration the last month, not just the past few days, thats all. And so far a mean trough has been over the East Coast for the past three weeks just like last summer. Thats what Dr. Masters has been pointing out.
HFC,
Your right on the High but its Mid June, besides the High is only one factor in the Tropical System development, what about Shear, SSTs, MJO, etc, and if the High stays in place and we get hit then all we can do is prepare, unless we can bulldoze the High away?
This is also what ive been trying to point out.
trofs will move north with the jet, imo.
There is a low trying to form not too far off the coast and has been trying to form convection around itself. It isnt having too much luck at this and wont with all that dry air moving in overto the north and west of where the center is trying to form.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

the green is where the low is forming (or trying to)...and the grey is of corse thedry air...unless there is some form of convection blow up over the center or at least near it, this thing isnt going to have much of a prayer...Ill check back in the morning to see if its able to muster up anything overnight.

Night guys.

Chris.
We're not talking about Development though sporteguy.. We're talking about steering.. I know how hurricanes work, I know how they develop, and I know what affects their development. Adrian and I both know what we're trying to say and we're speaking of the same thing, just 2 different periods of time. I'm speaking of now and He's speaking of long-term. I see what he's saying, and I think you can see what i'm saying, We're both right, but we're talking of 2 different things. It's just a misunderstanding.
LMAO, Stormhype.
:( I am out Guys,Sersiouly there is Mob on this Blog currently and i don't feel like joning this ,For all who helped tonight ...Thank you alot
Just posted a new lightening slo-mo clip in my blog that I shot a few nights ago. Give it a few minutes to load, it is fairly good quality. Would love some feed back or advice ☺
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:50 AM GMT on June 16, 2007.

lol HFC you have no proof of that because

A) there is no storm out there

B) there is no proof the high will stay in that spot




Hey JP Man.. You're missing my point. I'm speaking of now.. Not patterns for long-term. I'm not trying to say that the High will stay there, I'm definitely not stupid and I know it won't.. I know what you're saying about the long-term forecast.. But you do realize i'm talking about right now, Today.
JP- You have mail.
a

"It's a Trough MaNNNN!!"

"No way Holmes Its the Bermuda High HeHeHe"
Ok, we have established where the High is RIGHT NOW, not last week or next week and there is NO LOW. Anything else??..LOL
ok jp
JP Lol.. I'm meaning it's NOT like 06' Which it isn't that's all..

Lol The Iguanas ARE Constipated too.. That wind is now 5.8kts! OMG! Lol.
But when the iguana gets un-constipated, watch out. 197 mph easy....
Well.. Thanks for the Great Discussion tonight everyone.. Have a Great Evening.. I've got to work 10 hours tomorrow =/
Please.. Keep me posted on your thoughts of this disturbance.. Leave comments on my Forums:Link

Take Care Everyone!
a

Correct!!

Notice the circluar bands produced when the constipation is released!!


could someone explain why the location of the high in this "current" map, is different then the one that HCW posted?

IMAO if this thing does not head more northerly soon, it will be more of a rain event for Cuba and the Bahamas than Fla. Seems to be tracking more N.E.ly than N.
But, for all you young aspiring weather heads, YES, you should experience a major Hurricane. You should go through the crippling effects of society. The crime. The lack of aid from your local government. The fights you see over ice. The gauging of price. The fights that you see over the gauging of the price of ice..

Areas affected by hurricanes should be prepared for the ultimate. No other force is stronger on Earth. The Cyclone and Anticyclone have been photograhed on the gaseous planets beyond the asteroid belt. This is fact. Look it up, stop being lazy.

We should thank our luck our planet isn't as organized as the majority of planets are. Universely speaking, and yes, we have photographs of other plants, limited to our own galaxy. I would give you you a link but you're smart enough to do it yourself, aren't ya? We can thank the Moon for that, but that's for another campire....

The Earth, as active as it is, is a kiddie pool in the universe. We are lucky.

For all of you cyclone fans:

The fastest "storm" or (excuse my lack of technical terms) {I work for the common man anyway} the fastest and most dense "Ho-Down" of interaction, was found on the planet Neptune.

Here it is:




That huge spot is the fastest thing in the solar system, save the Sun's light.


NOTICE THE OTHER SMALLER, more defined storm on Neptune's lower hemisphere. Very defined. And ever-ending, from what we have through photopraphy. The astrological community now thinks the smaller, ever ending and never changing, well defined, perfect storm, if you will, is a direct result of why the huge massive storm at the equator of Neptune is the fastest..damn... Look it up!

Here it is in BW:




The smallest of the storms on Neptune are 20 times the size of the Earth. The winds are so intense we can not imagine the result.


We owe our whole legend, history, whatever you want to call it to placement. Placement from the Sun.

And some Carribean Low Pressure system keeps me from placing my ball on the green in ONE shot and begs to be put to bed with birdies?

Play on. Our Luck Our

Remember Neptune.

I love WUnderground, I wish you all the best.
Goodnite all. Off to bed. cu in the AM.
Yeah, Mr. P.! You tell them ! heheheheh
Posted By: stormchaser77 at 3:21 AM GMT on June 16, 2007.

Im Back After a Little Research I believe
Watchingnva Is Correct. A Low Is Trying To Form
Just E of The Yucatan. Pressure is Now near 29.64
and Falling. You Can Clearly See a swirl Starting On The Loop.


It clearly needs more covection though...we'll see by tomorrow.
"Play on. Our Luck Our

Remember Neptune.

I love WUnderground, I wish you all the best."

Remember tho, Neptune is under intense pressure, same as Saturn and Jupiter. That intense hurricane-ish storm is swirling extremely high pressure liquid (helium? memory is a bit fuzzy) at those speeds. Far worse than any natural disaster on Earth. The closest we could come to that level of destruction would come from the Sun or some other astronomical impact.

Compared to that, Ivan was a pansy.
Hey all am new and don't know much about weather patterns, but I live on Grand Cayman, and it's really nasty outside as we speak. Is this thing going to become a TD?
Posted By: 0ldman at 3:26 AM GMT on June 16, 2007.

"Play on. Our Luck Our

Remember Neptune.

I love WUnderground, I wish you all the best."

Remember tho, Neptune is under intense pressure, same as Saturn and Jupiter. That intense hurricane-ish storm is swirling extremely high pressure liquid (helium? memory is a bit fuzzy) at those speeds. Far worse than any natural disaster on Earth. The closest we could come to that level of destruction would come from the Sun or some other astronomical impact.

Compared to that, Ivan was a pansy.



Please Notice my careful reporting:

That huge spot is the fastest thing in the solar system, save the Sun's light.

You gonna debate it? 'Cause there's faster outside, not inside, yet.

Expect the unexpected, Bat Man.
The Neptune effect is this...

What you thought was normal and law, was just passing you by and you died. You were too slow. You had no choice anyway. Doesn't matter, you're DEAD.

The Cosmos doesn't play favorites.
We'll see if it really is a hurricane in store for SC... I doubt it. I doubt this area will even become a tropical depression.
Though unlike MOST people, I'm not going to rule out the possibility of development. Anything's possible with the weather. It's unpredictable. Conditions are rather unfavorable for 94L outside the Carribean, though.
Night all. My eye's are weary from looking at 94l and doing some video editing. Cool new animated gif slo mo lightening strike in my blog.

Will be interested to see how it looks in the morning and what the 00z runs say.

Night ☺
hey guys...last post for the evening...gotta get up early...Watch closely just off the coast south of cozamel...there is a low trying to spin up...the key word is trying...but at this point in time (12:10 am) I dont think its going to be much but maybe a rain producer. Shear isnt the issue with this system...its the dry air that is choking it out...If it is able to get some heavy health convection in the area of the circulation then we may be talking about TD3 tomarrow afternoon...Its got a huge task ahead of it overnight...we will see who wins out (dry air or convection refiring)...

And on that note...heres a repost of the pic from earlier...

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

night guys...for real this time...bye.

Chris.
706. RL3AO
Just got home. Looks like some excitement on here today.
watchingnva--you are right...this system needs to mantain some convection, then a td or Chantal could be possible as it enters the gulf.
JP
You still up????
so what do you think does the dry air keep it from forming????


Taco:0)
You do notice the pressure, location and wind speed has not changed on the front page for over 24 hours. What I was referring to is the latest wind pass from the trmm.
Welcome quickfeet, I was just awakened by the thunder as well and came back to check the sat photos. Does not seem very likely at this point for a TD to form but stranger things have happened. Looks like a soggy weekend though.
The pressure at buoy 42056 has also stabilized now and in fact has gone up a tad. Must have been an Iguana or vacuum cleaner. LMAO
Hi jp, I have about 100 iguanas on the golf course that I manage so will try to stage that photo for you for future use. LOL
The pressure isnt rising that much. There is still no strong convection in the area over water but the dry air is slacking off a tad.

There has been a significant drop in shear in the last few hrs.
The last storm did this - died almost completely, and looked even worse, then super convection started up near its rotational "centers"
I was just looking at the old pic on floater 3 again. Its strange how alike these systems are. Its almost the exact same location.
Whew the pressure just really shot back up. But so did the winds - wrong direction - what ever was there has dissipated some or moved away.
Good night, jp. I'm getting tired of worrying about it, at least for tonight.

Could someone answer my question I made earlier in the midst of the wishcasting for good and bad season argument?

Why have the GoM temps cooled off a few degrees? They were in the 90s in some spots, now in the mid 80s at most. What happened?
Night well the front is lifting north and reorienting. I wonder whats going to happen. I wonder if this will be like the last one when the front dissipated.
Most likely the gulf stream and loop currents kori! Normalizing the area.
"Please Notice my careful reporting:

That huge spot is the fastest thing in the solar system, save the Sun's light.

You gonna debate it? 'Cause there's faster outside, not inside, yet.

Expect the unexpected, Bat Man."

Are you arguing with me agreeing with you that that is one hell of a storm??

This blog never ceases to suprise me...
True, the winds may be blowing, but with no confined surface circulation, it can't be called a depression. It needs to organize before it can be considered.
Well ok then.

Anywho the pressure is still going up.
Is anyone else getting a "Forbidden" error when trying to access the NHC site (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)?
One thing to note is the moisture increase, in the evening, around what I would call a center, SW of central Cuba! Looks like NHC's thoughts are nothing until it crosses FLA!
That surface trough just isn't lifting out! it will be interesting to see the rain totals tomorrow.
NHC does have forbidden error seems they are blocking out everyone
Is this system going to ride the eastern sea-board? Or is it going to hit F.L and zoom in to the Atlantic?
Anybody know?
Well im going to sleep..
sorry ,

the models say so far -

c. hit F.L and zoom in to the Atlantic.
Looks like most of this mess unfortunately will stay to the south of miami dade and broward counties.Thunderstorms are still expected as some moisture+shortwave should amount to scattered activity.Overall no signs of organization with 94L.Adrian
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 8:39 AM GMT on June 16, 2007.

Is this system going to ride the eastern sea-board? Or is it going to hit F.L and zoom in to the Atlantic?



interesting question.
it has been my experience that timing is everythng when watching these fronts that move across the us and watching a tropical system coming from the south or east. It all depends on timing.
Morning all. Looks like most of the cloud cover has moved from our area and should be a fairly nice day if convection does not re-fire.This is one of the nicest mornings here in a while.
Morning K8 and SWFL ☺

If y'all have not seen, stop by and check out the new animated lightening strike in my blog. Give the image a few minutes to load.

See everyone later. Hope to post some images of the erosion we have seen here on the Carolina coast this week.
so....what's the deal with that big red thingy just off cuba?...is it or is'nt it?
Cool Lighting Strike SJ was that from a webcam??
so what do you think StormW? have you updated your blog this morning? thanks.....
756. FLBoy
The big blob off Cuba is explained here from the NHC 8:05 discussion:

THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS
CUBA/HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW ATLC GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 150/180 NM
OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N77W NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
28N68W.
thank you...so sorry to have used improper terms..
758. FLBoy
Unfortunately a lot of this moisture is going to miss Florida:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS THROUGH IS A
COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
TROUGH, BUT REGARDLESS OF WHAT IT ACTUALLY IS OR WHERE ITS ORIGINS
WERE, TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SHORT WAVE
SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
OPTED TO GO LESS ON POPS THAN MAV/GFS SINCE HAVING A TROPICAL
STORM LIKE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF MIAMI-DADE
CO BY 12Z THIS MORNING SEEMS FAR FETCHED. MATCHED UP BETTER WITH
THE NAM WHICH STILL HAS AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ALSO FOR THE WIND FIELD. WENT 70 POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS, BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE, AND
MAINLAND MONROE AS OPPOSED TO THE MAV`S +90%, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT 90% COVERAGE SEEMS A LITTLE MUCH.
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE FORGOTTEN HOW MUCH SHEAR AFFECTS TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STORM IN THE AREA, BUT JUDGING BY THE WV
IMAGERY MOST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION MAY STAY EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE FOUND.
looks like Lake O will not get some tropical moisture afterall.....that is a shame..... :-(
760. FLBoy
Rain coverage over Florida has shrunk now to mostly below the Lake and amounts are lower now for the rest of the weekend. QPF
762. FLBoy
southbeachdude....Real shame. There will still be some sea breeze showers each afternoon above and east of the lake....but the bulk will be in extreme south FL.
We really need that rain above the lake.
Yeah. I would love for central/north Florida to get a bunch of rain so that the rivers that feed the lake could send a bunch of water down.......maybe next storm.....
764. FLBoy
Here's the Atlantic basin stitched.
I guess one positive is that the Everglades is getting some water......I did notice that the HWRF and some other models are still trying to spin something weak up in the next 48 hours....
766. FLBoy
Yep.....most all the model runs are showing a system of some type just east of south FL in the West Atlantic and moving off to the NE.
Guess we will see.
767. FLBoy
The GFDL and/or the HWRF are storm specific models. They won't run again unless there is at least an invest to track.
The rest of them do show it. FSU
I have read in a few different places that the Bermuda high doesn't lock into place until around July 1st & it stays put for the next 3-4 months after that. I guess we are going to have the armchair forecasters beating this Horse (High) for the next six weeks. It makes me almost want to wish for a hurricane so I don't have to read people blogging about the position of the Bermuda high!
Chances Of strength for this Invest
70% TD
15% TS
0.1% Hurricane Cat 1
I don't Thing this Will Become chantal
probably not.....since there is not even a llc yet. Just some rain for the keys and extreme southern florida.
I am working way too hard {LOL}. July 1 is two weeks away. Any knowledgible bloggers know when the Bermuda High locks into place? Is it around the first part of July or later?
I am going to stick with NOAA....lol
Err... What the hell is that NE of Cuba and why isn't it moving NW towards the FL panhandle?
The COC is still south of cuba and east of isle of youth.
wait till noon for any new t-storms to devolpe,the stuff in the bahamas will be gone in 2 hours.
The protective belt of shear just scooted that little system right out into the Atlantic. Strange huh.
There is no low:)
current surface map U.S...Link
781. FLBoy
There is no low:)

LMAO!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
345 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

OPTED TO GO LESS ON POPS THAN MAV/GFS SINCE HAVING A TROPICAL
STORM LIKE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF MIAMI-DADE
CO BY 12Z THIS MORNING SEEMS FAR FETCHED. MATCHED UP BETTER WITH
THE NAM WHICH STILL HAS AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ALSO FOR THE WIND FIELD. WENT 70 POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS, BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE, AND
MAINLAND MONROE AS OPPOSED TO THE MAV`S +90%, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT 90% COVERAGE SEEMS A LITTLE MUCH.
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE FORGOTTEN HOW MUCH SHEAR AFFECTS TROPICAL
SYSTEMS.
Nothing to worry about as far as tropical cyclone formation in the NW caribbean as the ULL is on its way out takeing most of the energy with it.Adrian
Thank you for your update Storm!
With all the talk last night I thought I was gonna wake up to Wilma this morning!..LOL
GFS=Convective Feedback
Yeah,right Bob?LOL.
The Battle of Evermore..Link.."waiting for the Eastern Glow"..
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 1:20 PM GMT on June 16, 2007.

GFS=Convective Feedback


Which is likely what's causing the low formation on the model.It's 'creating' a reason for all the rain it's showing.
790. FLBoy
Nope...no Wilma. There's no POD.....nothing can happen without that! LOL
Its June..LOL..not Sept.
Believe it or not the NAM model had a good solution with this area taking most of the rain to the south of the florida.
793. FLBoy
. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST FOR 15/1800Z IN GULF OF MEXICO
CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1235Z.


Totally canceled!

H23 is right....the Nam had a good grip on the precip potential.
There is no Low...there never was.

Even if it were august or september another system like wilma under those perfect environmental conditions that were in place during that hurricane will be hard to come along.
Yes, the NAM/WRF is a good model. I look at its QPF more then the GFS. GFS is always overdone.
Believe that and your..well..mislead friend.............
Is this thing gone or what?
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin

Link
800. FLBoy
I like all of the models. There's always something to work with from all of them. Not hard to tell what is being overdone. So far this season we need all the tools there are...LOL
801. IKE
Posted By: dearmas at 8:30 AM CDT on June 16, 2007.
Is this thing gone or what?


Yup....she's a goner!
Good morning...Weather beauiful this morning in Northern Florida and it looks like the same for most of the SE....Appears that we will be searching for blobs next week (if they materialize) but all is calm for thi s weekend...For those of you who are (and I am) have a great Father's Day weekend....
807. FLBoy
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NE ACROSS CUBA/HISPANIOLA.
hello everyone. It seems that 94L has dimished greatly and hasn't developed any thunderstorm activity overnight.
Not much convection, notice that the convection builds during the day and dimishes by night...
What's with all those impressive blobs near the Bahamas?...are these something to watch?
Posted By: weatherblog at 2:11 PM GMT on June 16, 2007.

What's with all those impressive blobs near the Bahamas?...are these something to watch?

they are associate with a trough of ow pressure.
we can watch with sadness as rain goes south and east of Florida.....
Posted By: southbeachdude at 2:13 PM GMT on June 16, 2007.

we can watch with sadness as rain goes south and east of Florida.....

why the new model runs show rain over south Florida.
815. FLBoy
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO MORNING UPDATES ALTHOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS DECISION. FIRST OF ALL, TROUGH BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MOVED MUCH SINCE 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS NOT
SURPRISING UPON EXAMINING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION AND
OBSERVING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THIS OF COURSE ALSO
EVIDENT ON CURRENT AREA METARS, ACARS, 88-D, ETC. SECONDLY, A
QUESTION PERSISTS ABOUT THE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST
CONSIDERING ONLY CURRENT COVERAGE NEAR THE TROUGH BOUNDARY ITSELF.
THE WRF INITIALIZED QUITE WELL ON THE CONVECTION OVER THE FLA KEYS
AND THE SOUTHERN TIP AND THEN DEVELOPS AFTERNOON CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST IN
THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR,
HENCEFORTH ITS VERY HIGH POPS. THE NAM ACTUALLY SHIFTS THE ENTIRE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AND THIS NOT LIKELY SINCE IT HAS NOT MOVED IN
24 HOURS AND NOTHING APPEARS EVIDENT TO SYNOPTICALLY SUPPORT THIS
THINKING. PLENTY OF HEATING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
ALLOW THE GFS AND WRF SOLUTIONS TO BE CLOSER WITH WHAT ACTUALLY
TRANSPIRES THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NOW THIRDLY, LOOKING AT
THE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS, COMPARING THOSE WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND GPS ESTIMATED PWAT`S IS ANOTHER REASON TO LEAVE POP PATTERNS
AS THEY STAND. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED NEAR LAKE OKEE
WITH THE MFL SOUNDING SHOWING THE DRY AIR NOT UNTIL YOU GET ABOVE
25K FEET. SO AT ANY RATE, HIGHEST POPS WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR THE
SE CST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.

Hello and good morning everyone...well, as I suspected, the dry air inhibited any major convection overnight and the system doesnt look much better than it has the last 2 days...all that convection that was in the area and over cuba was never associated with 94L and it seems some still think it was. anyhow....the dry air is right over the system as we speak...but I ve noticed right over the center the dry air has weakened just slightly and thunderstorm activity (convection) might be possible in the next 4-8 hours. The system has been trying to getting something over itself the last 4 hours or so and if its able to get a nice symmetrical area of convection over itself in the next few hors...we may have a td today...


All we can do is watch and wait...

BBL.

Chris.
look at the sry air ahead of that thing lol. Lets hope for moisture and daytime heating
Looks like navy dropped 94L
we may have a TD lol. That thing is not tropical building convection with the heat of the day then dimishing by night...
820. FLBoy
Melbourne NWS:

.NOW...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS
ROUGHLY LOCATED ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE TREASURE COAST AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
MAINLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET IN VICINITY OF OLD BOUNDARY...WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST OF MARTIN AND SAINT
LUCIE COUNTIES...LOWERING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CAPE AND DAYTONA
BEACH. MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR
SO. BUT MOTION WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SLOW AND ERRATIC ACROSS MARTIN
AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
94L still on the navy site

convection starting to build again

wait and see
pressures are high in the area of the Yucatan
Navy Page..Link
Latest Image...94L
5
Theres something to chew on...LOL
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico

Link
i see an eye pat........bunker down on this one boys
N. Atlantic imagery,Global..and more.
Link
1009 MB 20Kts Pressures aren't that high
It seems the NRL has a thing for pressures of 1009 hPa. The last to invests i've seen have had pressures of 1009 hPa according to them..LOL
833. FLBoy
Latest surface analysis.

There's no evidence of any surface low.
It appears a mid-upper shortwave has cut-off from the main trough and is meandering NW.
The next TWO will either mention this or not.
835. FLBoy
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Nope.
fishfone2.jpg

...uuuummmm, hello, is this the "no-spin" zone???
The silly season is definately here... So much debate over something that will only give needed rains at the worst and not much else.

I actually wouldn't expect much from the Atlantic until the MJO comes back around (likely late July-Early August).

Once that happens however, time to buckle up, this looks to be a year where the Cape Verde storms take centre stage and the Bermuda High will potentially not be as friendly as last year.
(I expect it will move south and west, as it has in other mild La Nina seasons once the jet stream begins to weaken in July).