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June hurricane season outlook and Arthur/Alma post-mortem

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:35 PM GMT on June 02, 2008

The season's first tropical storm, Arthur, has come and gone. Arthur formed Saturday afternoon--one day before the official start of hurricane season--and immediately made landfall in northern Belize on the Yucatan Peninsula. Arthur brought heavy rain to Belize, southeast Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras. Resulting flooding in Belize has killed at least two people, left five missing, and flooded many homes and businesses. Rainfall totaled 171mm (about 7 inches) at Tikal International Airport in Northern Guatemala, and satellite rainfall estimates suggest as much as 10 inches of rain may have fallen in some isolated areas of southeast Mexico. Arthur's remains will continue to soak the region with up to six more inches of rain in the coming two days. No computer models are suggesting that Arthur's center will drift over any ocean areas and rise from the dead again. However, a new low pressure area (91E) has developed in the Eastern Pacific off the southeast coast of Mexico, just south of Arthur's remains. Moisture from Arthur/Alma may fuel the development of a third tropical storm--Boris--which could form Tuesday or Wednesday, and move northwestward into Mexico.

Before Arthur was a he, he was a she--Tropical Storm Alma in the Eastern Pacific. Alma soaked Costa Rica and Nicaragua with up to ten inches of rain, damaging or blocking 117 roads and destroying a number homes in Costa Rica, where an estimated 1,500 people are homeless. In Nicaragua, three people died, ten are missing, and 25,000 people are homeless in the wake of the storm.

June Atlantic hurricane season outlook
June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the 13 years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been ten June named storms (not including this year's Arthur). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 13-year period, giving a historical 38% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are still quite cool in June, which limits the regions where tropical storm formation can occur. SSTs are typically too cold to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and there has only been once such development in the historical record (Figure 1). This year (Figure 2), SSTs are about 2°C above average off the coast of Africa, which has led to some unusually vigorous tropical waves for this time of year. SSTs near the Cape Verde Islands are about 25°C, and this will need to increase to at least 26°C before we need to be concerned about African tropical waves developing.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 26°C-28°C, which is 0.5°C above average over most of this region. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur this year (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave).


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 29, 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, Figure 3) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. As we can see, the heat energy available in the tropical Atlantic has declined steadily since 2005, when the highest SSTs ever measured in the tropical Atlantic occurred. I expect that the TCHP will continue to remain well below 2005 levels this year, so we should not see any intense hurricanes in July, like we saw that year.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for May 31 2005 (top), May 31 of last year (middle) and May 31 2008 (bottom). TCHP is a measure of the total heat energy available in the ocean. Record high values of TCHP were observed in 2005. TCHP this year is much lower. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart.

Wind shear over the past 11 days (Figure 4) has been unusually low over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Central America. Th shear was 4-8 m/s (8-16 knots) below average last week, aiding the formation of Tropical Storm Alma/Arthur. The jet stream is usually very active and quite far south in June, bringing plenty of shear. The jet stream looped unusually far northwards during late May, but is forecast to return to a more normal position over the coming two weeks, increasing the shear over the June breeding grounds for tropical storms. The jet stream will gradually weaken and retreat northwards as summer progresses, bringing lower wind shear and greater chances for tropical storm formation.


Figure 4. Top: Average wind shear over the 11 days ending on May 30. Wind shear is the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude) in meters per second (multiply by two to get the approximate wind shear in knots). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots (10 m/s, the blue colors in the top image) will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots (6 m/s, the orange colors) is very conducive for tropical storm formation. Bottom: Departure of wind shear from average for the past 11 days in meters per second. Note the unusually low wind shear area near Central America where Alma/Arthur developed. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why last year's Subtropical Storm Andrea never became a tropical storm.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has typical for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are well-predictable only about 3-5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the typical June pattern, bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast capable of recurving any June storms that might form. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2005 pattern, that steered so many hurricanes into the U.S.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 38% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of June. Given the current two-week wind shear forecast, the odds are that Arthur will be the only tropical storm we'll see during the first half of June. Still, there will be "holes" opening up from time to time in the shear pattern, so we need to keep our eye on the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development in the coming seven days.

I'll have an update Tuesday afternoon, when the latest Colorado State University Atlantic Hurricane season forecast by Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray will be available.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Evening Ninja!! The blobs, are well..they are blobby!!:)
I think the stormkat drama scared away all the bloggers.
180 days to go
its gonna be a long season
LOL weatherguy03....whats your take on the tropics?
"I expect that the TCHP will continue to remain well below 2005 levels this year, so we should not see any intense hurricanes in July, like we saw that year."

That strikes me as a pretty bold statement...also, I'd like to know why they are lower....

508. JLPR
498.
you don't have stormy on your nick =P lol

Well I will just say Hello stormyeyes =) nice to see you and good for you to want to protect your family =)

With that I will end the thought the stormys are all one =)

And well I'm still impressed with our tropical waves with great structure in June =O
Also looks like the Pacific and the Atlantic are trading storms =P.
Also a question: What is causing all the wet and cloudy weather in Puerto Rico? I don't see a wave close to us

EPAC TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14N94W 1007 MB
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT COVERS
THE ERN PACIFIC WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
91W-98W. THIS AREA HAS BECOME ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PRETTY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IR
IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN
120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS. IF NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER THE SYSTEM WOULD
THEN INTENSIFY. IT IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 48 HRS.
Hurricane Bertha was a tropical cyclone that formed in July of the 1996 Atlantic hurricane season. This Cape Verde-type hurricane caused some damage in the U.S. Virgin Islands before making landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina as a Category 2 storm, where it is best remembered as a forerunner of the much more destructive Hurricane Fran which struck just two months later.

Wouldn't one of the storms (91E or Arthur) become dominant and absorbe the other or can they go their seperate ways?
508. Just messing with you.
What is up with this? n - e -1 know?
Link
You can read it HERE Ninja in my blog.

Is the small area of low level vorticity off the coast of Venezuela associated with the tropical wave that is currently over land there?
Guys, I could SPIT right now! That is, of course, if I had any saliva! More than half of the damn state is getting whalloed with severe weather, but most importantly RAIN!!! Once again, Tampa gets the big ZERO!
National Hurricane Center - Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
21:00 PM UTC Jun 2 2008

The remnants of Former Cyclone Arthur (AL01-2008) continues to produce widespread cloudiness and localized heavy rains over portion of Belize, Guatamala, and southeastern Mexico. While re-development of this system is not expected..associated heavy rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides..especially in mountainous terrian during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westwards.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
=====================================
LOW (<20%)
Will check it out now weatherguy03. Nash.....Tampa usually gets the big ZERO lately. You spit, i'll scream!!!!!!!!!!
JLPR, its mostly tropical moisture from the diffluent westerly flow aloft enhanced by an upper level low that is along a tropical upper trough north of Puerto Rico.
Back, gang! We got a named storm yet?
Drak could you answer my post at 515? Thanks!
Yeah I am in a foul mood. Get home from hell day at work, and what do I find? A nice little note from the HOA BITCHING at ME about how brown the grass is!

What a bunch of rocket surgeons these people are! HELLO!!!! It's brown because we haven't had any rain since the Bicentennial you jackballs!!!!!! Add to that the once per week watering restriction and BINGO! DEAD LAWN!
511? anybody???
its the tampa bay triangle nash gobbles everything up
424 mph wind report in Florida... LOL... sounds like a typo

2015 424 17 NW CORAL SPRINGS PALM BEACH FL 2644 8046 SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANGEMENT MESONET ALONG US 27 AT THE COUNTY LINE OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE MEASURED 56 MPH. (MFL)

SPC reports
527. JLPR
520. Drakoen 10:34 PM GMT on Junio 02, 2008
JLPR, its mostly tropical moisture from the diffluent westerly flow aloft enhanced by an upper level low that is along a tropical upper trough north of Puerto Rico.


Wow thank you Drak =) lol I had to read it a few times to understand it correctly =P I see its a combination of things, Well I just hope the tropical wave at 55W keeps away until all of that moves out, I don't want it combining to all of the upper level activity =)
ROFL Nash!!!

calm down...
I tell ya Keeper... This area sucks! Weather wise that is... If you want anything REMOTELY exciting weather related, don't move here!
Texas, I'm not sure they will split, but perhaps merge. They are moving towards each other. CIMSS is showing three different areas of low level vorticity where 91E and Arthur are. I think the two more prominent areas will merge, leaving the third area in the BOH.
yeah Nash, I hear ya. My lawn is DONE! Toast, fried. We want to re-sod but I keep trying to stall until the so-called "rainy Season" gets going.
515. CatastrophicDL 10:30 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Is the small area of low level vorticity off the coast of Venezuela associated with the tropical wave that is currently over land there?


Yes.
Nash, get some of that gawdawful green paint the highway depts use to spray over newly seeded areas. Problem solved!
thats why when you do get it its gonna be big real big
91E computer models have it going north into the gulf of mexico.

this is freaky
You know, back in 2003 and 2004 you could set your watch by it around here starting in late May. It would rain DAILY! Not just rain. We used to get HAMMERED with some squally weather every day starting around 3:30 and the coverage was widespread.

Since then, that pattern had died in the last few years.
530. CatastrophicDL

Thanks, I thought I might be on everyones iggy list or banned.
Ninja- You'll know what I am talking about when I say if you fire up the lawnmower and while cutting the grass you begin to smell smoke coming from the grass! You know it's bad then.
nash all point all the tropical storms you way =p
one day nash fla will be the desert state
omg! It was like clock work. I get off from work at 3:30 and sure enogh about 3:00 you would see it starting to get dark and eery outside my office window. Then at 3:30 BAM!!!!!! I would have to drive home in the torrential downpour. Now i'm surprised my tires don't melt off with the asphalt being as hot as lava.
Thanks Drak:-)

Go ahead... We could use a wet TS right now! Call it TS THANK YOU JESUS!
LOL Ninja!!!! I love the tire comment!! ROFLMAO!
nash its not cuttin grass its called blowing away grass
541. Littleninjagrl 10:45 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
omg! It was like clock work. I get off from work at 3:30 and sure enogh about 3:00 you would see it starting to get dark and eery outside my office window. Then at 3:30 BAM!!!!!! I would have to drive home in the torrential downpour. Now i'm surprised my tires don't melt off with the asphalt being as hot as lava.


Same here!
Nash, would it bring rain if everyone there washed their car on the same day?
Look, you know it's real bad when even native birds are looking at you and if they could talk, they would be saying "I'm outta here!"
Actually Keeper, it's now called cutting hay.
I pulled into my driveway after work tonight and damn near cried at the color of my yard.
Lotsa lightning here. The static is dynamic. On to the next brush fire.
If 91E doesn't start heading NNW its going to be heading into some rough terrain over some of the Sierra Madre mountains on Mexico.
its gonna rain nash
sooner or later it will come
problem is it just may be too much all at once thats usually how it goes
553. Inyo
Housing associations are just about the stupidest thing ever and should be illegal
Yeah, I know Keeper. That's been the pattern in the last couple of years. NO rain for three months. Then all hell breaks loose, and floods.
Hi guys, I would like to introduce myself to this blog. I am NOT a new user, as a matter of fact I have been around here since 2006. This is my third account in 2008. I had 7 different blogging accounts in 2006, and 38 different ones in 2007.

Hope I enjoy my stay!


So it's possible that 91E might form into a TD in the Epace and then strike landfall in the Bridge of Mexico then move into the BOC?
I hear ya, CDL! Keep bringin' it on! Good work!
38 accts???? Wonder why...
Nash, some of that tropical moisture is beginning to lift northward from the Caribbean. You can already see it on the water vapor imagery. The GFS shows some good rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. The combination of the frontal system and the ridge axis progressing east should give a good chance for rain though the bulk of the moisture will be in the inland areas. Some of the other models like the NAM and WRF aren't as generous with the moisture and shows generally dry conditions for the bay area with most of the moisture confined inland.

I thought ya'll would have a storm named, track and landfall by the time I got back this evening! What gives here?
38 accts???? Wonder why...

I believe he was banned multiple times on different accounts last year.
At just about 3:00 pm CST, two major oil ports were being closed somewhere in Tabasco,Mexico due to "hurracane winds" and high waves.
What do you all know about this? There is also some devasting flooding going on in several states in the South of Mexico, and a few rivers are past critical stage.
Is that 91E going to become another problem right on top of this?
Thanks-
ya know this system sounds like the little engine that could, is this any remnants of Arthur? If it were to again move over the mountains and retain some sort of circulation, and as arthur get a name again. When was the lat time the same storm got named four times, that is if this one in the Pac. gets a name?
Let's hope we get another TD in the atlantic as the system moves North. The water in the Gulf is plenty warm in the Gulf to support a strong tropical storm.
mlc...we did...ya missed it....show's over...nothing to see here...go home....
566. eye
Link

twins
Nash,

Remember what ya said about not getting any rain, because when you get slammed by a storm you will be wishing that you were somewhere else. Florida will get rain, unfortunately I think the only drought buster that we could get in effect would be a large scale major storm. Otherwise the impact on our water supply that being Lake O, would be in effect very small. But you have to remember the benefit of North Florida getting the rain, is simply this. It will sooner or later flow downstream and into the Lake, unfortunately with alot more pollutants than it had when it first hit the ground.
so is 91E going to make it or not???


- Nash, maybe this will help your sentiments.

- Press, LOL. Gotcha, and I caught your message earlier, will do for sure!
OH WAIT!!! I forgot it drizzled here for 36 seconds on Sunday. Does that count?
Numerical model guidance suggest 91E will make landfall within the next 12-24 hours as the system moves to the North or NNW.
arough, the gulf is not fit to handle any type of system. Its too early in the year for anything of the nature to come into the GOM and have any type of impact. The hotspot is the carib this time of year, as we saw with Arthur.

Anyone who goes out and starts wishcasting, and who was here last year with as many names as you say you had knows that calls for a ban. We are here to blog, we are not here to be trolls or to be wishcasting. Lets use this blog for what it was intended for.
560. WPBHurricane05 6:04 PM CDT on June 02, 2008
38 accts???? Wonder why...

I believe he was banned multiple times on different accounts last year.


Surprised that the Admin hasn't perma-banned him from the entire site... making a new handle to circumvent a ban is a very big no-no.
we keep getting these freak of nature storms about noon or so here in south florida. Then it builds up majorly out to the west over the glades and does nothing. The only weather report was a possible tornado, along alligator alley up north of me.
573. MichaelSTL 11:11 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
560. WPBHurricane05 6:04 PM CDT on June 02, 2008
38 accts???? Wonder why...

I believe he was banned multiple times on different accounts last year.

Surprised that the Admin hasn't perma-banned him from the entire site... making a new handle to circumvent a ban is a very big no-no.



LOL. What are we 5 years old???
577. eye
if people were banned for wishcasting on this blog, 90% would be banned for some reason or another.
Drak,

When do you forsee a significant increase in the rain precip. here in South Florida? Or is it like I said, do we unfortunately need a drought busting cane to solve our water issues?
JP...the sad thing is.....i watched the clock and yup it was right around 36 seconds give or take a few. It was hilarious. It was lightining and then it started thundering really bad and the kids ran inside becuase the sky got really dark blue. So i start doing the "hooray its gonna rain dance". My hubby was cracking up and then when i looked outside again.................the sun was out. pfffft!
if people were banned for wishcasting on this blog, 90% would be banned for some reason or another.

Especially during 2006 with the "westcasting". I remember people thought Ernesto was heading straight for the Gulf of Mexico while he was making landfall over Florida.
568. Tazmanian 6:08 PM CDT on June 02, 2008
so is 91E going to make it or not???


It will make landfall soon; here is the CMC track and forecast for Alma/Arthur/91E, which it has tracked as one system:

569. If you'll right click on the pix, hit view and click the spyglass, the pic will come into full view and easier to see, or lol, just click this link for precipitation forecast.
There is an ignore feature on here for a reason...USE IT if someone offends you.
However, to put someone on ignore because they disagree with your forecast reasoning seems juvenile. JMHO
That is NOT necessarily true about the Gulf can't handle tropical storms...we saw Arlene develop into almost a hurricane in early June...
578. plywoodstatenative 11:13 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Drak,

When do you forsee a significant increase in the rain precip. here in South Florida? Or is it like I said, do we unfortunately need a drought busting cane to solve our water issues?


We'll have rain chances pretty much all week. Some tropical moisture advects up from the south and the frontal system to the north will add to the instability in the atmosphere. These will be cool tropical rains and some of the convection that forms will be slow movers, similar to what we saw today. Moisture will greatest in the inland areas with the daytime heating and diurnal minimum.
ok STL


by the way how dos evere one like the all new TWC in HD???
The only thing I heard on CNN relating to Oil ports was a large one in La. that they were talking about how we would get prices nationwide around $7 a gallon if Port Furrion I believe is the name would get hit by a storm. Thats the only information I have heard, but if mexico is having problems with oil importation, just think how long we will have to wait for impacts on our supply lines
So, does anybody know if there really are hurricane force winds and real high waves close to shore in the Gulf of Mexico? I don't remember anybody, anywhere, thinking that was going to happen.
So if 91E becomes the "B" storm and merges with the former Arthur, shouldn't it be named "B" Arthur?
Maybe I should start back up my Southeast weather blog with all you guys wanting rain lol.
503. WPBHurricane05 10:25 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
I think the stormkat drama scared away all the bloggers.


Still around, had to drive home. Will be in and out watching the twins. So, did all the Stormy's leave at the same time? Sure is much more sane than an hour ago!
? is this storm just jumping back and forth between basins? i wonder if it will be the second storm to jump back and forth and be named... One storm a long time ago had three total names. it started in (I think) the atlantic basin then went into the pacific then came up into the gulf of mexico.
any chance of significant rain near or ontop of Lake Okeechobee?
Thank you Michael and MLC.
Photobucket

...yep, FL looks pretty crispy! Hope ya'll get some rain soon!
Drak, yes that would be helpful. It looks like arizona here in south florida right now.
Looks like Lake O is getting some pretty heavy rains currently.
LOL. Yesterday I asked stormyeyes for a picture of her, and she said she was very pretty but she gave not evidence of her being a girl.

I don't know why people think I am stormkat/stormtop...I was on here during katrina, that's when I talked to him....now I am back home and he is going
by stormkat....he's really been one of the only ones on here to be nice to me and explain
things to me. I know nothing about the weather or how to read the maps....so I take
help where ever I can get it....the last comment about the other girls was a joke...forgot to put the lol....at least i know someone else on here likes me...lol...thanks....if you have any weather updates, feel free to email me here...I am
trying to stay off the blog...to many people attack me for no reason.....Have a nice day....stormeyes
593. plywoodstatenative 11:21 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
any chance of significant rain near or ontop of Lake Okeechobee?


Yes.
Welcome, condesa, but not sure what I answered. LOL
do you think she is ST's sister or what?
One storm a long time ago had three total names. it started in (I think) the atlantic basin then went into the pacific then came up into the gulf of mexico.

That was Hattie-Simone-Inga:


Still around, had to drive home. Will be in and out watching the twins. So, did all the Stormy's leave at the same time? Sure is much more sane than an hour ago!



They are gone...for now.
who cares
Mexico exports about 1.7 million barrels a day, mainly to US Gulf.
This note below says- The Secretariat of Communications and Transportation announced that the ports of Dos Bocas and Cayo Arcos were being closed due to hurricane winds and waves.

La Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes anunció que cerraba los puertos de Dos Bocas y Cayo Arcas en el golfo debido a las vientos huracanados y al oleaje.
I will start the Southeast weather blog back. It will include the following states and only the following states: Tennessee, North and South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Florida. The blog will have 5 day forecasts based on GFS, NAM, WRF, NGM models. Occasionally I will use the CMC and UKMET models.
when could we see 91L???
...try this again. Maybe easier to see/read.

Photobucket
Can we get back to the subject of hurricanes I have no Idea what on earth your talking about

Nakri finally was down-graded to TS bout time
601. SpaceThrilla1207 6:26 PM CDT on June 02, 2008 Hide this comment.
do you think she is ST's sister or what?


Who cares. What is this a high school?
598. SpaceThrilla1207 11:23 PM GMT on June 02, 2008

Stormyeyes says she's coming to Destin this weekend, if she's real she'll accept my offer to meet her in person while she's here. I'm fairly new to this blog, periodically have watched it for a couple of years, just got serious about participating this year. Everyone is pretty cool, still learning personalities that's for sure.
611. Michfan 11:30 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
601. SpaceThrilla1207 6:26 PM CDT on June 02, 2008 Hide this comment.
do you think she is ST's sister or what?

Who cares. What is this a high school?


Its a mental hospital.
Taz - we'll see it when the remnant circulation of Arthur over the NW Yucatan emerges into the southernmost GOM in a few days when the trough picks it up.
Thanks Drak!
Drak...presslord thinks it's excellent that you are re-starting your SE blog.....thanks...presslord....
jp...some people take themselves to seriously when there really isn't anything major going on...when it becomes crunch time..this blog does come together and is helpful.
606. Drak, no Sippi, or Bayou? :(
602. MichaelSTL 11:27 PM GMT on June 02, 2008

Interesting. This year appears on it's way to have some rare occurances too.
What's wrong with high school? I'm in high school...I'm 16.
and we are the mental patiences
613. Drakoen 6:31 PM CDT on June 02, 2008 Hide this comment.
611. Michfan 11:30 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
601. SpaceThrilla1207 6:26 PM CDT on June 02, 2008 Hide this comment.
do you think she is ST's sister or what?

Who cares. What is this a high school?

Its a mental hospital.


Id have to agree.
So, does anybody know if there really are hurricane force winds and real high waves close to shore in the Gulf of Mexico? I don't remember anybody, anywhere, thinking that was going to happen.

Well, Buoygraph doesn't have any buoys along the Mexican cost, but where there are buoys in the Gulf, there's nothing unusual going on with wave heights:



Windspeeds aren't too impressive either:



Data from stations on land would be more useful here. The most extreme conditions are at 42055 -- ~20 knots, ~6ft waves.
Lets see Alma formed into Arthur who died over land but created a spiral band that became an invest that will likely become Boris, Boris to be should move upward die over Mexico Maybe it will regenerate as Bertha
one storm four names that would be... odd?

If that happens I am going to put an entire post with nothing but a hundred lols
6' waves and 20kt winds ain't a big deal.....but those graphics are way cool karen....thanks...
618. moonlightcowboy 11:32 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
606. Drak, no Sippi, or Bayou? :(


No Mississippi lol. Thats South central U.S.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008

CARIBBEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 18N92W

not sure where the YUCATAN CHANNEL is but it looks like 91E may not be a part of what was arthur
Try to post # 2:

Thanks Dr. Masters.

Hi everyone.

You FL folks can have this dry, but humid, heat back. No rain for 2 weeks. A drop from 90+ to ~75 in the afternoon with a good rain makes this season palatable in SE LA, almost.

Guys, if you quote or talk about the trolls, it gives them a reason to be. Ignore them completely (stop feeding the dog) and they will leave and go play video games or watch Square-Bob Sponge-pants reruns.
If that happens I am going to put an entire post with nothing but a hundred lols

If you do that the administrators would probably ban you immediately, if not sooner.
631. IKE
18N and 92W is very close to the BOC...water.......
Here is what I see. I think there is a good chance 91E will be become TD Two-E, and perhaps Boris if it has enough time. If the GFS is correct, it would move into the BoC, and the GFS seems to suggest favorable wind shear at that time or so. Therefore, I think it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few days with this.
So, does anybody know if there really are hurricane force winds and real high waves close to shore in the Gulf of Mexico? I don't remember anybody, anywhere, thinking that was going to happen

There was an odd 97 knot sustained wind in a ship report, but the only way that could be real is if it was a Cigarette Boat, heading into the wind, setting a speed record. (not real likely, but who knows...)
MLC, you're going to have to find someone who does South Central U.S.A. forecasts. There is a reason for the states I chose. That's because they are the Southeast region lol....
According to the EPAC TWO, 91E is moving slowly northward.
then 91E most be part of a hole new thing then
624. Yeah, Press, Karen's graphics are cool.

AND, if memory serves me, too, they are graphics that she created as in "hers!" A w e s o m e, effort, Karen. Thanks!
I'm signing off for a bit. If i don't log back on....hope everyone has a great night!!!!
I read a comment earlier when someone said the NHC said that Arthur's remnants were on the probability map...well I imagine anything the NHC talks about in their TWO will have at least a low probability. If there was a system with a low pressure and a blow up of convection, and the wind shear was and forecasted to be 30 knots or so, it would still have a low probability on the map. So I just want to make sure that people don't read into that too much.
There was an odd 97 knot sustained wind in a ship report, but the only way that could be real is if it was a Cigarette Boat, heading into the wind, setting a speed record. (not real likely, but who knows...)
Action: | Ignore User

there are actually a number of scenario under which that might have been legitimately possible....
where jp? as for the southeast, i swear you can fry an egg on sidewalk with the amt. of humidity we have had
1. A WELL-DEFINED BUT SMALL SURFACE CIRCULATION...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC JUST OFF THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND
HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
Karen...Is that right? That's a tremendous resource for my purposes (offshore sailing)....
That's interesting, helpful and thanks, KR...
I'm reading an articlej online from Southern Mexico right now where the Bishop is asking everybody to stay calm and to put there stuff in plastic bags and pray.
ABPZ20 KNHC 022342
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WELL-DEFINED BUT SMALL SURFACE CIRCULATION...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC JUST OFF THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND
HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
Hi all. How's everyone doing?
635. Well, darn. Be that way, Drak. Us Sippians may just have to stop wishing for, doing rain dances and talkin' to the Gods for the FL folks, then!

....nyanh, nyanh, nyanh! ;P j/k
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008

CARIBBEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 18N92W


Inland over YUCATAN CHANNEL? Huh?

Click this to see a map of Yucatan Channel.
648. moonlightcowboy 11:48 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
635. Well, darn. Be that way, Drak. Us Sippians may just have to stop wishing for, doing rain dances and talkin' to the Gods for the FL folks, then!

....nyanh, nyanh, nyanh! ;P j/k


lol maybe I'll slip in a little something for you...
Tell me if I've got this right. These are the things we're monitering in the tropics:

1) Remnants of Arthur which is currently about to enter the BOC; development is possible in the next couple of days. It also would be named Bertha if so...

2) Invest 91E which located in the Eastern Pacific. Development into a TD or TS Boris over the next 24 hours is possible as it moves N or NNW towards the general vincinity of the BOC or Bay of Honduras. Once there, development is possible once again...

3) In days time, the CMC/GFS (and maybe more models) are agreeing to the idea of a tropical cyclone developing in the NW Caribbean near Cuba and maybe enter the GOM. It may or may not happen; it's just something to keep an eye on.
650. LOL. ......ain't it fun negotiating! ;)
presslord is grateful to Drak for drawing the distinction between North and South Carolina....presslord
649 -

DANG IT - Someone drained the channel again!! I hate it when they do that - lol!
656. IKE
649. tornadofan 6:48 PM CDT on June 02, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008

CARIBBEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 18N92W

Inland over YUCATAN CHANNEL? Huh?

Click this to see a map of Yucatan Channel.


I would say they made a mistake.
652. weatherblog 11:51 PM GMT on June 02, 2008

Some of the most accurate straight talk I've heard all day!
653. moonlightcowboy 11:51 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
650. LOL. ......ain't it fun negotiating! ;)


Its hard to say no to ya MLC! LOL.
656 - IKE - that must mean their human. Okay.

655 - tunnels.
654. lol

I caught hell for that pet pevee this weekend press.

Models still showing the Atl showing signs of life over the next week?
662. IKE
660....yo bud.
656. IKE 11:53 PM GMT on June 02, 2008

I'll second that!
sorry sj...it's my only vice...yup...looks like things are wakin' up....
weatherblog, #1 isnt really true

no one said; well at least the NHC didnt say that development was possible even if the remnants of Arthur got into the BOC


That's what I've been hearing on the blogs though. lol
659. Thank you, Drak. Just think about us if you see sumpin' bad! :)
667. IKE
665. weatherblog 6:57 PM CDT on June 02, 2008
weatherblog, #1 isnt really true

no one said; well at least the NHC didnt say that development was possible even if the remnants of Arthur got into the BOC

That's what I've been hearing on the blogs though. lol



It could happen....odds not great...but, nothing is written in stone.......that's why we watch.......


Looks like the remnant low from Arthur will be entering the Bay of Campeche overnight with diurnal maximum occuring. Appears that the chances may be increasing for re-development with the low as strong convection has now covered the low. If 91E does not deepen and strengthen, we may see Arthur's remnant low win the battle.
Arthur's remnant low may be slightly stronger than 91E according to the CIMSS 850mb Vorticity Map.
658. jphurricane2006 11:53 PM GMT on June 02, 2008

A few of us have said it could. The NHC isn't god you know. Come on, this system has maintained a circulation over land and is headed for 84 degree water. What about this year has been normal btw and followed what the Hurricane Center has predicted? The point is everyone can have their opinion and I'll second the thought that the remnants of Arthur have a good chance to reform if it gets back over warm water.
668. cchsweatherman 12:01 AM GMT on June 03, 2008

Look JP, somebody else think what the weatherblog thought.
cchs...IF it were to re-develop, the interesting thing it would be named Bertha, not Arthur. But, then again, has anyone even looked at shear in the BOC or the amount dust present for the next 24-36 hours?
Ok, WeatherBlog. Thanks.
I am in south central Mexico; it's hard to keep track or know what's really developing or happening. I really appreciate Wunderground, more than ever.
Where is it??? Where is it??? Okay, found it....Let's see....Apply directly to the forehead...Much better now.


There is an upper-level anticyclone over between Arthur's remnant low and 91E. If the anticyclone moves north, Arthur will have a real chance for re-development into Bertha.
678. IKE
675. condesa 7:07 PM CDT on June 02, 2008
Ok, WeatherBlog. Thanks.
I am in south central Mexico; it's hard to keep track or know what's really developing or happening. I really appreciate Wunderground, more than ever.


Same here.........
*675

You're welcome, condesa...! Wunderground is great for anybody interested in weather; that is, unless you meet a 'stormy' on the blogs, but that's a whole different story.
If 91E develops... Arthur's remnants will most likely not form into Bertha due to Boris's remnants moving into the general direction of the BOC also, but then those remnants can form into something also. So, I think during the next couple of days timing is everything which is normally the situation in the tropics.
Good evening CCHS, Everyone...

Looks like these are two circulations that do NOT want to die...does anyone know whats going on with the other waves?

Also...I've discovered how to prevent Hurricanes from striking the land, if anyone cares to ask...
Hi all. How's everyone doing?
678. IKE 12:10 AM GMT on June 03, 2008

When did you move to South Central Mexico!?
*682

Please don't say tunnels...lol
Good evening all
Be back later...
Evening Weather...
Wow. So at the beginning of all this we had the huge are of convection extending from the East Pacific into the Caribbean,

The convection associated itself enough in the Pacific to be named TS Alma.

Alma disorganized, lost its name and its remaining convection moved into the Caribbean.

Here it reconsolidated and was named TS Arthur.

Arthur moved further inland where it lost it name.

Some of the remaining convection moved into the Pacific where it may become TS Boris.

If Boris were to form it would likely move Nward eventually reaching the BOC.

In the BOC it would most likely strengthen to take on the name Bertha.

ALL OF THIS COULD OCCUR FROM GENERALLY THE SAME LOW. Now THAT would break some records!
685. weatherblog 12:18 AM GMT on June 03, 2008
*682

Please don't say tunnels...lol


Well I think I missed the whole discussion on tunnels a few days ago, however it is not tunnels anyways.
692. IKE
684. 69Viking 7:16 PM CDT on June 02, 2008
678. IKE 12:10 AM GMT on June 03, 2008

When did you move to South Central Mexico!?


LOL....no...I was agreeing with them saying I really appreciate Wunderground.....lol.....
Good Evening Folks....
690. XoendHoroeken 12:22 AM GMT on June 03, 2008

Not true when all along there has been two lows which are still visable on Satellite imagery.
Some very heavy rain amounts expected for parts of SE Mexico, Guatemala and El Slavador

#668

CCHS...... agreed 100%!
Wow, seems June has gotten off to an unusual start, perhaps even more son if Arthur's remnant low strengthens in the Bay of Campeche. I may go with the theme here (and my gut for some odd reason...) and say we could see Bertha in the next few days. If not, then this storm has been unique and tenacious either way. I just have a feeling this could be a groundbreaking storm.
IF Arthur were to reform in the GOM, NHC might rename him, but then again, they might not barther. lol
new blog up
700. IKE
Jeez..this late? Surprising........
682. MasterForecaster 12:15 AM GMT on June 03, 2008
Good evening CCHS, Everyone...

Looks like these are two circulations that do NOT want to die...does anyone know whats going on with the other waves?

Also...I've discovered how to prevent Hurricanes from striking the land, if anyone cares to ask...


How do you prevent hurricanes from striking land, MasterForecaster
Looks like the convection on ALMA.... I mean Arthur......I mean Bertha.........well, whatever the hades you wanna call the thing entering the BOC.....

nice little flare up...... and I don't think its just a T-storm! LOL
I came down here last year; I'm in Cuernavaca. Our only official weather station, which is about 20 miles from here, was down for 4-5 months because they closed the "international" airport because no none knew how a plane with a bunch of drugs landed, where it came from, who flew it... they re-opened it a couple of months ago, but I think they shut down the weather station when storms are coming in and at night when everybody goes home. Hardly anything is grounded here- electrically speaking...
Sorry for the delays and distractions- I've been chasing a little kid around.
Weather service in Mexico is thinking that new tropical wave is going to make a storm here and that the anti-cyclonic spin is going to dissolve. I translate this, sortof, sorry.
About Stormy whatever... in spanish a storm is a tormenta. Sounds about right.
703.
when you say they shut it down during storms do you mean tropical storms and hurricanes or like thunderstorms...don't you need the weather station during those times?
where is Cuernavaca?
No, it shuts down almost everynight and the only reason I can imagine for why it goes out during storms, which can get very intense here, is that they close the airport,?, or they disconnect electrical things... I don't know. It doesn't make sense.
The very first ever stations were installed in Toluca about 10 days ago- and they've got a real international airport... we don't typically get much advance warning, so that's why I was so surprised to see they shut down the ports over on the gulf already.
Cuernavaca, Morelos
Lat/Lon: 18.9° N 99.2° W
We're southwest of Mexico City